Search found 292 matches

by Scorpion
Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing
Replies: 28
Views: 2596

Re: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing

Unless I missed it, no one directly responded to the notion of whether to hold bonds in taxable versus retirement accounts. As I thought about a little bit, the answer seemed obvious - hold them in retirement accounts in all events. Presumably, if I would ever need the money from bonds at all, I wou...
by Scorpion
Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing
Replies: 28
Views: 2596

Re: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing

I understand the need to manage risk in bond funds. A way to do that and still participate in decent yields is to choose a fund duration that you can feel comfortable with and provides decent amount of income for the risk. In my opinion, I think intermediate duration bond funds with durations aroun...
by Scorpion
Tue Aug 16, 2016 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Inflation
Replies: 23
Views: 1415

Re: Question on Inflation

[/quote] I don't understand the above comparison. One is nominal and one is real, so they shouldn't be the same. Are they both supposed to be balances in your account after 10 years, taking into account expenses and increases in value of assets?[/quote] Yes, exactly. I know they are not supposed to ...
by Scorpion
Tue Aug 16, 2016 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Inflation
Replies: 23
Views: 1415

Re: Question on Inflation

My struggle is that there is a huge difference in the projection depending on 1 or 2. Assume $2M in assets, $100k of expenses and 2% inflation and 8% nominal return on assets (including dividends). Assume no tax effects. After 10 years, you get the following results: Reduce assets by 2% a year: $2,1...
by Scorpion
Tue Aug 16, 2016 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Inflation
Replies: 23
Views: 1415

Re: Question on Inflation

Thanks for the responses so far. To be clear, I do understand inflation and the fact that it can vary year to year and is not constant (and could be different for me personally). Those small variations will have much less impact than whether I do 1, 2 or 3 above - does everyone agree with sport's an...
by Scorpion
Tue Aug 16, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Inflation
Replies: 23
Views: 1415

Question on Inflation

So, in connection with preparations to retire, I am working on a chart to track (a) how my investments (along with spouse's salary) will pay my annual expenses and (b) how my investments will continue to grow, given various assumptions. I am a bit confused as to how to factor in inflation though. On...
by Scorpion
Mon Aug 15, 2016 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing
Replies: 28
Views: 2596

Re: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing

I'm not at all saying I can't be convinced on bonds. It's just hard to stomach 2% yields. Based on a few seconds of research, it would appear that 5 year CDs are yielding the same (2%) as bond funds - not very enticing. What would be great if bond interest rates went up a few percentage points in ju...
by Scorpion
Fri Aug 12, 2016 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing
Replies: 28
Views: 2596

Re: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing

Thanks for these continued thoughts. The "stop playing when you've won" point is definitely some food for thought. I guess there's the vague notion that it would always be nice to have "more," but yeah, no good reason, really. Any thoughts on the tax approach? do the bonds go in ...
by Scorpion
Thu Aug 11, 2016 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing
Replies: 28
Views: 2596

Re: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing

Declines in the price of a bond fund decrease total return in the year they happen, but over time the higher interest rates reward the owner. PJW But if like 1940s or 1950s through 1980s yields do not keep up with inflation and higher interest happens year after year after year and you do not catch...
by Scorpion
Thu Aug 11, 2016 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing
Replies: 28
Views: 2596

Re: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing

Well, I guess it is accurate that I haven't really considered how BIG the downside is on bonds. I have been at my current AA for so many years (rebalancing between equity types) that I never even consider bonds. It's hard for me to get over the fact that the s&P 500 index fund and the Interm-Ter...
by Scorpion
Thu Aug 11, 2016 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing
Replies: 28
Views: 2596

Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing

So I am starting to draw near to early retirement, thanks in large part to the ideas espoused on this board (index funds, stay the course, live below your means, etc) and the help of many folks on this board over the years. One piece of advice I have never really heeded, though. Any time I posted on...
by Scorpion
Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Alternatives to Quicken 2016?
Replies: 34
Views: 4138

Re: Alternatives to Quicken 2016?

Sorry for resurrecting this, but since i was the original poster, I just wanted to post and let everyone know that Quicken 2016 has worked nearly flawlessly for me, despite a lot of the concerns I had seen online. I had to get online connectivity fixed on two or three of my accounts, but that wasn't...
by Scorpion
Mon May 09, 2016 7:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Alternatives to Quicken 2016?
Replies: 34
Views: 4138

Re: Alternatives to Quicken 2016?

thanks for all the responses. Based on them, I decided to take a chance and just bought premier 2016 on ebay for $49. I'll make sure to backup my files thoroughly first! I have upgraded in the past by simply installing the new version and not uninstalling the old first. If anyone has any tips on doi...
by Scorpion
Sun May 08, 2016 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Alternatives to Quicken 2016?
Replies: 34
Views: 4138

Alternatives to Quicken 2016?

So I forgot that my Quicken version is 2013 - when I went to update it today, it errored out because my three year period of online updating for transactions has expired. I was surprised that Quicken Premier 2016 was $100. Have never paid even close to that much. Far worse, however, were the user re...
by Scorpion
Tue Jul 29, 2014 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment in Employer Projects - How Much is Too Much?
Replies: 5
Views: 752

Re: Investment in Employer Projects - How Much is Too Much?

To some of the concerns and how I have rationalized them: I have significant other assets such that I have not viewed the lack of liquidity as an issue. I think I have marketable skills such that I could get a new job if my company went under, and I think I could retire if needed. I am part of senio...
by Scorpion
Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment in Employer Projects - How Much is Too Much?
Replies: 5
Views: 752

Re: Investment in Employer Projects - How Much is Too Much?

Good questions. They are not publicly traded, so their values do not fluctuate like REITs. They are illiquid. The projects get refinanced after the first 2-3 years such that investors get most or all capital back but still own their interest in the project. Sale could be in first 2-3 years or concei...
by Scorpion
Mon Jul 28, 2014 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment in Employer Projects - How Much is Too Much?
Replies: 5
Views: 752

Investment in Employer Projects - How Much is Too Much?

My employer allows me to invest in our apartment projects on the same terms as our outside investors. Without getting into too much detail, they provide a 10% preferred return on capital before my capital is returned and project out an IRR of at least 12% per year to investors under conservative ass...
by Scorpion
Mon Jul 28, 2014 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wife returning to work - Wisconsin Retirement System qs
Replies: 14
Views: 1299

Re: Wife returning to work - Wisconsin Retirement System qs

Thanks for the detailed thoughts, Spencer99. It just doesn't seem worth it to do after-tax contributions. I am thinking we are going to go with the core option, even though it runs counter to all the investing I have done in my life to this point (i.e., taking lots of risk in the hopes of higher ret...
by Scorpion
Fri Jul 25, 2014 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wife returning to work - Wisconsin Retirement System qs
Replies: 14
Views: 1299

Re: Wife returning to work - Wisconsin Retirement System qs

Thanks for all the responses; this was very helpful. The Wisconsin Deferred Compensation 457 plan is not available in all districts, including my wife's as it turns out. I guess I'm leaning towards the Core at this point plus the Fidelity 403(b). I'll check back occasionally in case anyone has furth...
by Scorpion
Wed Jul 23, 2014 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wife returning to work - Wisconsin Retirement System qs
Replies: 14
Views: 1299

Re: Wife returning to work - Wisconsin Retirement System qs

Thanks for the responses so far. 1. I have not seen anyone advocate for putting more after-tax dollars over and above the pension contribution and the 403(b) contribution. Let me know if anyone disagrees with that. 2. Sounds like 403(b) with Fidelity is the way to go. 3. Flyingbison, what was your t...
by Scorpion
Wed Jul 23, 2014 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wife returning to work - Wisconsin Retirement System qs
Replies: 14
Views: 1299

Wife returning to work - Wisconsin Retirement System qs

My wife has recently decided to go back to work as a public school teacher. We live in Wisconsin. She has not previously worked in Wisconsin. We have substantial (>$1M) savings accumulated over many years of diligent saving. About 35% of our savings are in retirement accounts. We are in our late 30s...
by Scorpion
Thu Mar 21, 2013 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Passive Losses for State Returns - TurboTax must be wrong
Replies: 4
Views: 793

Re: Passive Losses for State Returns - TurboTax must be wron

I think you're asking 2 different questions. One, does Iowa allow passive activity losses, and two, how to enter nonresident passive activity income and losses in Turbotax. I can't answer the second, but as to the first, not all states allow passive losses, but Iowa does. As a Wisconsin resident, i...
by Scorpion
Wed Mar 20, 2013 10:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Passive Losses for State Returns - TurboTax must be wrong
Replies: 4
Views: 793

Re: Passive Losses for State Returns - TurboTax must be wron

I'm pretty sure my passive loss for non-resident states question is universal to most states. I think if I bought Oklahoma and Nebraska, TT would handle it the same way. Whether that same way is the right way, though, is the question. Hopefully someone has run into this before. I really don't want t...
by Scorpion
Wed Mar 20, 2013 8:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Passive Losses for State Returns - TurboTax must be wrong
Replies: 4
Views: 793

Passive Losses for State Returns - TurboTax must be wrong

I have a burning tax question. I tried to create a Fairmark login, but I am still waiting for their confirming email, and I know my Boglehead friends seem to know all this stuff, so I figured I would try, even though not really a tax-focused community. Here's the initial question. I have some follow...
by Scorpion
Mon Feb 18, 2013 9:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Turbotax Premier, K-1s and Passive Activity Losses
Replies: 4
Views: 633

Re: Turbotax Premier, K-1s and Passive Activity Losses

Thanks - I didn't shell out for Premier.
by Scorpion
Mon Feb 11, 2013 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Quicken Deluxe 2013 Free with TurboTax Purchase at Amazon
Replies: 15
Views: 4242

Re: Quicken Deluxe 2013 Free with TurboTax Purchase at Amazo

Thanks - embarrassed I couldn't find it without assistance, but I appreciate your help! :oops:
by Scorpion
Sun Feb 10, 2013 10:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Turbotax Premier, K-1s and Passive Activity Losses
Replies: 4
Views: 633

Turbotax Premier, K-1s and Passive Activity Losses

I have done my taxes with TurboTax Deluxe for many years. In recent years, I have started receiving (and later investing in) shares in various real estate partnerships. I have dutifully entered the K-1 info into TT Deluxe every year. I worry though, that when things start to get more complicated wit...
by Scorpion
Sun Feb 10, 2013 10:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Quicken Deluxe 2013 Free with TurboTax Purchase at Amazon
Replies: 15
Views: 4242

Re: Quicken Deluxe 2013 Free with TurboTax Purchase at Amazo

Does anyone know if this deal is still available? I scoured the Amazon site and could find nothing. TT Deluxe is $44 now instead on 39.99, so I'm thinking it might be over.
by Scorpion
Wed Jan 11, 2012 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Frustrated with Work and Dealing with Golden Handcuffs
Replies: 55
Views: 6936

Re: Frustrated with Work and Dealing with Golden Handcuffs

I suggest you ask yourself this- are there some days that you enjoy work? Do you get a feeling of accomplishment? I'm guessing the answer is yes. I think the smarter you are and the better you are, the more likely you are to feel like a fraud. I believe it is called "impostor syndrome" - t...
by Scorpion
Mon Sep 05, 2011 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: So how many of us are going to undo Roth Conversions now?
Replies: 9
Views: 2189

Sorry to revive this old thread, but I wanted to give an update for those in my position. As a general matter, I would recommend what others have recommended in the past - a careful reading of Form 8606, its instructions and Pub. 590. After spending hours creating a spreadsheet, my calcs show that i...
by Scorpion
Mon Aug 08, 2011 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: So how many of us are going to undo Roth Conversions now?
Replies: 9
Views: 2189

So how many of us are going to undo Roth Conversions now?

So like a good Boglehead soldier, I learned all about Roth conversions for folks with income in excess of the normal Roth limits at the end of 2009. I converted significant Traditional IRA balances on the first business day of 2010, and I also did a backdoor 5K contribution for each of my spouse and...
by Scorpion
Sun Aug 07, 2011 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance decision 3.75 vs. 3.25
Replies: 2
Views: 936

Thanks. I tried the bankrate.com one, and it says that I can recoup $800 closing costs on even a 3.70% loan (so in other words, a 5 basis points change in interest rates) in less than 9 months. So it's even more aggressive than erate.com. Not sure why there is a difference with erate on that calc. B...
by Scorpion
Sun Aug 07, 2011 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance decision 3.75 vs. 3.25
Replies: 2
Views: 936

Refinance decision 3.75 vs. 3.25

I have refinanced twice in the last two years. In 2010, I went to a 3.75% 15 year fixed. I am now considering whether it is worth it to go to a 3.25% 15 year fixed. Mortgage balance around 300K. Closing costs all-in are pretty cheap, between $750 and $1,000. Two issues: 1. Will my credit rating be a...
by Scorpion
Fri Jan 21, 2011 1:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Significant change in Penfed cashback visa card
Replies: 30
Views: 3350

This is sad news, especially after they forced us to change card numbers due to data theft... Aargh.
by Scorpion
Tue Jan 04, 2011 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2011 Backdoor Roth but preserve right to undo 2010 conv.?
Replies: 4
Views: 1186

I don't think it's that simple if you have deductible contributions that you converted in the 2010 conversion. You would have to go through the proration formula, etc. such that your backdoor conversion would have some tax consequences (since it would be as though your 2010 conversion never happened...
by Scorpion
Mon Jan 03, 2011 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2011 Backdoor Roth but preserve right to undo 2010 conv.?
Replies: 4
Views: 1186

[bump] Anyone have any thoughts on this issue? I thought it might be a common question.
by Scorpion
Thu Dec 30, 2010 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2011 Backdoor Roth but preserve right to undo 2010 conv.?
Replies: 4
Views: 1186

2011 Backdoor Roth but preserve right to undo 2010 conv.?

My MAGI is too high to do a normal Roth contribution. I did a 2010 roth IRA conversion in early 2010 of an existing TRAD ira (it had some pre-tax amounts that will require payment of tax). At the same time in early 2010, I also did a backdoor new $5k contribution for 2010 (i.e., I contributed to a T...
by Scorpion
Tue Nov 23, 2010 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: WV 529 Plan DFA vs. Others
Replies: 2
Views: 830

WV 529 Plan DFA vs. Others

I have had my kids in the WV Smart 529 Select plan since late 2006. The reason for doing this was that WV offers DFA funds. Based on my reading at the time, I felt that even if I couldn’t be in DFA funds, it would be worth it to get my kids in them. My oldest is 12 years away from college, and I hav...
by Scorpion
Fri Sep 10, 2010 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: Multiple Choice Portfolios
Replies: 9
Views: 1622

Thanks Taylor - the bonds are coming (I had a more recent post that wasn't linked title "The Case for Bonds for Aggressive Investors" where I have decided some amount of bonds is appropriate), so this is just the equity side of the portfolio. I know that quite a number of Bogleheads prefer...
by Scorpion
Fri Sep 10, 2010 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: Multiple Choice Portfolios
Replies: 9
Views: 1622

POLL: Multiple Choice Portfolios

I am trying to decide if I should create one “equity side” of my portfolio that can last me for pretty much the rest of my life (with bond percentages increasing over time), or if it is better to have an equity allocation that adjusts as I get older as well, in addition to the bond percentage changi...
by Scorpion
Thu Sep 09, 2010 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogle: Good Time to Be Buying Stocks
Replies: 33
Views: 6607

But didn't he also say that it was not a good time for bonds (which implies good time for stocks)? Aargh, I was just starting to convince myself I need bonds. The problem with "stay the course" is that it is so ingrained that it is hard to know when you truly should change course...
by Scorpion
Thu Sep 09, 2010 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Case for Bonds for Aggressive Investors
Replies: 56
Views: 6851

Here's was I do. Every single contribution to tax-deferred goes into bonds or cash. It's been this way for a couple of years. This keeps my bonds more or less in balance, but growing slightly which is just fine for me since I have net spending from my portfolio this year (decumulation phase). Then ...
by Scorpion
Thu Sep 09, 2010 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Case for Bonds for Aggressive Investors
Replies: 56
Views: 6851

I played around with Tip$ter last night, read a few articles about whether there is a bond bubble and looked at historic US stock market returns. A couple of thoughts: 1. Tip$ter gives me exactly what I was looking for, in a sense – it dictates an optimum answer. It tells me I should have exactly 76...
by Scorpion
Wed Sep 08, 2010 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Case for Bonds for Aggressive Investors
Replies: 56
Views: 6851

Has the stock market just not been substantially negative over a ten year period? the obvious problem with Firecalc et al. is that you're still analyzing probably the best case scenario: 20th century United States. you need a Firecalc that incorporates a probability of 1940s Germany, 1990s Japan, e...
by Scorpion
Wed Sep 08, 2010 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Case for Bonds for Aggressive Investors
Replies: 56
Views: 6851

According to Otar and many others, if you have a big pile of money and your sustained withdrawal rate is low, then it doesn't matter what your asset allocation is. You are in the green zone. The question is, "What if I don't have a big pile of money?" One answer is to keep working until y...
by Scorpion
Wed Sep 08, 2010 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Case for Bonds for Aggressive Investors
Replies: 56
Views: 6851

It's good to ask these questions, but I think you should try to be a little clearer in your cost/benefit analysis. The cost of adding stocks is greater uncertainty about your $2M retirement date. The benefit is an earlier potential retirement, in expectation. Why don't you convert this asset alloca...
by Scorpion
Wed Sep 08, 2010 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Case for Bonds for Aggressive Investors
Replies: 56
Views: 6851

Re: The Case for Bonds for Aggressive Investors

As that starts to look more achievable, it seems more foolish to be taking big risks. Congratulations on your progress. Ben Graham has suggested a range of 25% to 75% equity, and the rest bonds, IIRC, with 50% as default. One possibility is to slowly or quickly work your way up to 25% cash and bond...
by Scorpion
Wed Sep 08, 2010 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Case for Bonds for Aggressive Investors
Replies: 56
Views: 6851

I always thought that my goal was to make as much money in investing as possible... It probably isn't. I don't know why people think it is sophisticated or expected to say that their goal is to earn as much money as possible. I have no doubt at all that there are people who really do have this as a...
by Scorpion
Wed Sep 08, 2010 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Case for Bonds for Aggressive Investors
Replies: 56
Views: 6851

The Jim Otar's website (http://www.retirementoptimizer.com) has the book available as a .pdf for $5. I ordered the book from Amazon and think it is really worthwhile information and it is presented in a somewhat different fashion than other finance books I've read. I highly recommend it. Just curio...
by Scorpion
Tue Sep 07, 2010 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Case for Bonds for Aggressive Investors
Replies: 56
Views: 6851

Chapter 19 in Otar's book is titled "Optimum Asset Allocation -- Accumulation Stage". I found it interesting because he does not recommend something simple like "age in bonds" initially. He describes three stages "Seed money formation", "Mid-life growth", and...

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