Search found 767 matches

by Scooter57
Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?
Replies: 25
Views: 1949

Re: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?

High frequency programmed trading, negligible trading fees, the move to replacing dividends with stock buybacks that unequally reward top management at the expense of long-term stockholders, and government intervention in the bond markets are all factors that only came to the fore in the past decade...
by Scooter57
Tue Jun 12, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maturing Credit Union 3% CD's this year
Replies: 37
Views: 3178

Re: Maturing Credit Union 3% CD's this year

I called NWFCU Moday and was told by the CSR that Heritage Club members can not withdraw without penalty.
by Scooter57
Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maturing Credit Union 3% CD's this year
Replies: 37
Views: 3178

Re: Maturing Credit Union 3% CD's this year

You can add beneficiaries to CDs at NWFCU which will let you cover more than $250K with insurance.
by Scooter57
Wed May 23, 2018 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard switching all accounts to brokerage accounts?
Replies: 90
Views: 15169

Re: Why is Vanguard switching all accounts to brokerage accounts?

I just got the dreaded conversion banner on my account this morning. I saw it a couple years ago and ignored it, but I'm wondering if this time they will force me. Any insight as to whether anything has changed that will make me have to do this? My old rep who I had dealt with for years passed away ...
by Scooter57
Wed May 16, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5 yr CD up to 3.41% APY, NO EWP for seniors in IRA, but with catch
Replies: 43
Views: 5467

Re: 5 yr CD up to 3.41% APY, NO EWP for seniors in IRA, but with catch

If you are investing outside of an IRA, you can make a deposit to a NWFCU share account at any Credit Union Coop Branch in the US. So you can open the accounts in the morning, drive to your local Coop branch, deposit the money into the NWFCU share account at your local CU (if it's a Coop member), ph...
by Scooter57
Mon Apr 23, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Making decisions based on past performance works (except when it doesn’t)"
Replies: 17
Views: 2172

Re: "Making decisions based on past performance works (except when it doesn’t)"

There is always a chance that 95% of people surveyed believeing that stocks go up in the long term might be a signal on the order of the "Death of Equities" article that kicked off the upward trend of the last 35 years. But in reverse. I remember my mom, who was a serious investor long before that 1...
by Scooter57
Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard Web Site Down?
Replies: 121
Views: 8553

Vanguard Internal Server Error on Sign In

[merged into existing thread - moderator prudent] I'm unable to access my accounts today. So I phoned my Flagship representative, who as usual was unavailable, and then asked to speak to another rep. He told me that yes, there were problems with the web site that they were working on with no time g...
by Scooter57
Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Money Or Your Life
Replies: 49
Views: 6960

Re: Your Money Or Your Life

You can live frugally and very comfortably if you do the following: 1. Move out of a huge city with insane housing prices. Life is so much more pleasant when you aren't in a high stress environment that you will find a lot of necessities, aren't. There are plenty of smaller cities and tows scattered...
by Scooter57
Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much money can a CPA save you?
Replies: 52
Views: 5997

Re: How much money can a CPA save you?

My mother used two different CPAs. The first cost her money by making serious mistakes in her taxes that resulted in a large IRS penalty. The second talked her into establishing several completely unnecessary trusts with himself as the trustee. He charged about $8000 a year per trust for accounting ...
by Scooter57
Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Amazon Can Blow Up Asset Management
Replies: 31
Views: 5639

Re: How Amazon Can Blow Up Asset Management

The idea that the publishers formed a cartel missed hugely important points. Amazon was selling books at a huge loss for years, in order to destroy all their competitors who couldn't just keep issuing stock to pay their bills. They were losing $2 on every copy my publishing company sold through them...
by Scooter57
Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Amazon Can Blow Up Asset Management
Replies: 31
Views: 5639

Re: How Amazon Can Blow Up Asset Management

As someone who has been a vendor to Amazon since it began I'll just say that Amazon's pattern is to start out by offering you all kinds of too good to resist benefits, all possible because they can sell at a loss and just keep making more money selling shares. But once they get that 80% market share...
by Scooter57
Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 13957

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

I would only venture to attempt to predict a world series winner by watching the teams playing during the last month of the season. Any reference to statistics will only mislead. We Red Sox fans knew we were doomed going into the last two playoffs despite all appearances because we saw the team flag...
by Scooter57
Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regrets / Pearls
Replies: 27
Views: 4509

Re: Regrets / Pearls

Pearls Don't wait for retirement to live the life you want to live. Your 50 year old self will be working very happily at 70 if you don't work mainly for money in your 30s but to do the work you know you were put here to do. The happier you are with what you do all day long, the less money you need....
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 13957

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

I simply do not see how the whole factor thing is anything but very fancy backtesting. Yes, it worked over many periods in the past, but it may very well have stopped working now for many reasons, starting with the way that computer trading has changed markets and moving on to "once everyone knows s...
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)
Replies: 28
Views: 3250

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)

I've also found the newsletter helpful. I learned about it here from Madsinger's report and subscribed five years ago, when I was just starting to study investing. I only took it for a year, but did follow his advice to invest in Prime Cap Oddyssey Agressive Growth (POAGX) which I have continued to ...
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 13957

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

I am mystified as to why this forum seems to worship Swedroe when he is continually changing course and recommending new portfolios that are supposed to give the investor some advantage. The portfolios are based on academic research which is, in turn, always based on backtesting, since no one can re...
by Scooter57
Fri Mar 02, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Didn't get alerts from Vanguard
Replies: 14
Views: 2217

Re: Didn't get alerts from Vanguard

Did you check your spam folder? I am getting all expected alerts.
by Scooter57
Thu Mar 01, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard CFP rcommendations of non-index funds?
Replies: 10
Views: 1621

Re: Vanguard CFP rcommendations of non-index funds?

My Flagship advisor completely ignored my specific questions and gave me a list of Vanguard funds to move all my assets into. I don't remember the specifics as it was five years ago, but it wasn't the Three Fund portfolio or what Bernstein was recommending. I had already begun studying investing but...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard CFP rcommendations of non-index funds?
Replies: 10
Views: 1621

Re: Vanguard CFP rcommendations of non-index funds?

When I have had a consultation with their advisors in the past (a perk of my Vanguard membership level), the "advisor" made no real effort to determine my goals or assess my actual need and ability to take risk. They had a single standard portfolio to recommend and put a lot of pressure on me to swi...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5-year CD vs. 6-year CD; double EWP with longer maturity
Replies: 21
Views: 1340

Re: 5-year CD vs. 6-year CD; double EWP with longer maturity

My experience with direct CDs is that the bank wants to renew them automatically upon maturity. If I get a "special rate" for some odd period, like 37 months, it will renew at an unfavorable rate for another 37 months unless I take action to keep that from happening. With a brokered CD, the money j...
by Scooter57
Sat Feb 24, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Atlantic Article: This Is What Life Without Retirement Savings Looks Like
Replies: 26
Views: 4811

Re: Atlantic Article: This Is What Life Without Retirement Savings Looks Like

Many people, especially from the socioeconomic class that tends to visit investing forums, have an inflated idea of how much money people need to have to live comfortable, meaningful lives. I live in an area full of unspoiled nature which has never offered decent jobs. Our median family income is $5...
by Scooter57
Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 191
Views: 36582

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

Prime money market has average maturity of 47 days.

Purepoint Financial and Live Oak Bank currently offer 1.60% apr savings accounts online. But the way things are going if Prime Money Market keeps rising, they bank rates are going to have to rise considerably to remain competitive.
by Scooter57
Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why Vanguard short-term bond instead of CD
Replies: 31
Views: 3925

Re: why Vanguard short-term bond instead of CD

No, I can't. My bank doesn't offer it... their CD rates aren't particularly great either. Why limit yourself to one bank? There are dozens of banks and Federal credit unions open to depositors around the country. The worst service I've experienced has been with local institutions both small and lar...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why Vanguard short-term bond instead of CD
Replies: 31
Views: 3925

Re: why Vanguard short-term bond instead of CD

Nothing wrong with a CD, but I can use Federal Money Market and Short-Term Treasury Index (or longer term) fund and tune the relative duration to match a CD ladder of similar length and get the simplicity of not having additional accounts floating around to manage, and Vanguard accounts make naming...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 36
Views: 6754

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

So the 2.90% SEC yield on VBTLX isn't that bad, right? Better than CDs right now. Thanks for all your help understanding this! Absolutely not. Go have a look at Vanguard's summary of the funds performance which you'll find here: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/list#/mutual-funds/asset-cl...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why Vanguard short-term bond instead of CD
Replies: 31
Views: 3925

Re: why Vanguard short-term bond instead of CD

There are quite a few rate rise scenarios where a bank CD with an early withdrawal penalty of 3 tor 6 months interest comes out way ahead of a bond fund paying the same interest. There is a cost to trading brokered CDs or bonds on Vanguard which may be as high as $250. Beyond that, bond funds have a...
by Scooter57
Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 36
Views: 6754

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

Just a wild guess, but it may have something to do with the financial incentives management have. If your compensation is tied to the rate of growth in assets under management (or even worse, growth of new money coming into the firm) It may explain all the Vanguard ads touting low expenses. That so...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 36
Views: 6754

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

Vanguard is not an unbiased source now that they have put a fortune into attracting new customers. If the new customers pull their money outoff bond funds it's a problem for them. If you rely on the advice of anyone without understanding exactky what you own and how it is expected to work you will m...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 6 and 12 MO CD's or Treasury Bills
Replies: 13
Views: 2296

Re: 6 and 12 MO CD's or Treasury Bills

Any reason why you can't use the NASA Credit Union 2.25% 11mo CD?
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund Distributions as Interest Rates Rise
Replies: 3
Views: 781

Re: Bond Fund Distributions as Interest Rates Rise

Another factor is how fast the bonds age out of the fund. I.e. what percentage of the whole fund is bonds bought at current rates. Also, if investors are taking money out of the fund at a much higher than normal rate, that must force the fund (and all other funds like it) to sell bonds even if it wo...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yields Spreads and the Economy
Replies: 8
Views: 983

Re: Yields Spreads and the Economy

Fears of inflation are not just based on the Fed. Oil prices have risen 50% since I filled my basement oil tank at the end of this past August. Crude was a $40/a barrel while it is now over $60. I paid 50% more for my last heating oil fill. Gas prices haven't risen as fast, but probably will as refi...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the most the stock market has ever been down in 5 year period?
Replies: 19
Views: 3221

Re: What is the most the stock market has ever been down in 5 year period?

The Nikkei 225 in Japan hit a peak in 1989 and was still down 80% 20 years later. Now, 29 years later it is still down 37% from the peak. This was without a war or a economic collapse. Other more complex factors play a huge role along with the extremely inflated valuations. http://www.macrotrends.ne...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO forecast
Replies: 26
Views: 2920

Re: GMO forecast

I don't think its illogical to take a risk when there's an expected return higher than that risk. Life is just that, from our ancestors venturing out to hunt down a mammoth to us investing in stocks. The difference between investing and gambling seems to be that gambling is a zero-sum game (with fe...
by Scooter57
Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO forecast
Replies: 26
Views: 2920

Re: GMO forecast

Alternatively, you can conclude that if very intelligent value based investors are able to make a strong case for a permabear position that does not match actual stock progress, it shows what a completely illogical gamble investing really is. The Bogleheads philosophy rests on the idea that the mark...
by Scooter57
Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bberg: bond bulls say they'll have the last laugh
Replies: 16
Views: 2299

Re: Bberg: bond bulls say they'll have the last laugh

The investing landscape was very different in the early 1970s, so different that you can't really draw useful conclusions. Commissions were huge to buy anything. Mutual funds had huge fees and commissions too. This limited how often people traded and even who invested. There were no money market fun...
by Scooter57
Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 36
Views: 6754

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

Consider the source. Alliance Bernstein has a stake in keeping investors buying bonds and bond funds. All this backtestng is bogus because a 1% rate increase when bonds are at 8% is very different than one at 2%. Plus we are in a completely different market environment now with people day trading bo...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors
Replies: 15
Views: 3172

Re: The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors

Real world dialogue: Person is an educated person with a college degree who inherited a good chunk of money. Person: My financial advisor does great for me. (Pause for preening.) Me: What is their training? Person: I don't know. A friend recommended her. Me: Does she have any certifications? Person:...
by Scooter57
Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Seeking Alpha Become Worthless?
Replies: 29
Views: 6341

Re: Has Seeking Alpha Become Worthless?

To be fair, Seeking Alpha is a crowd-sourced platform. There is no one message. I made quite a bit of money using the value strategy promoted by one of their more visible authors. I only stopped using it because a) I'm getting to the age where my judgement might begin to deteriorate without my knowi...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Magazine
Replies: 15
Views: 1673

Re: Barron's Magazine

They sent me some kind of freebie deal some years ago. I found it useful only in that any company they profiled enthusiastically seemed to tank over the next few months--a negative indicator like Cramer enthusing. Otherwise a complete waste of time. Worse they insisted on sending me huge printed pap...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Seeking Alpha Become Worthless?
Replies: 29
Views: 6341

Re: Has Seeking Alpha Become Worthless?

Their business model hasn't been able to adapt to the switch from desktop to mobile among their readership. They were paying too much for their content in view of the ad revenue they were getting. Much of their traffic is people who treat them as a forum and hang out in comment sections. If you've e...
by Scooter57
Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility as a cause of volatility?
Replies: 18
Views: 1326

Re: Volatility as a cause of volatility?

Once again investors, including a lot of institutional traders, have invested heavily in cockamamie derivatives no one really understands. That brought back bad memories. Plus, no one is sure which institutions took the XIV bath and whether their losses will ripple.
by Scooter57
Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard REIT fund changes objective, name & index
Replies: 15
Views: 2807

Re: Vanguard REIT fund changes objective, name & index

I had no problem with the switch to the CRSP indexes. But when Tax Managed International becane Developed Markets I was much less happy.
by Scooter57
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard REIT fund changes objective, name & index
Replies: 15
Views: 2807

Re: Vanguard REIT fund changes objective, name & index

This is why I won't ever again buy any Vanguard funds except the total stock market/s&p index funds in my taxable account. They changed fund objectives and constituents on me several times and I ended up with holdings that weren't what I'd signed up for that cost me taxes when I got out of them. Let...
by Scooter57
Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a divorced spouse claim SS on the record of an ex- who died too young to claim?
Replies: 5
Views: 895

Can a divorced spouse claim SS on the record of an ex- who died too young to claim?

As I understand it, a person who was married for more than ten years and did not remarry has the choice of claiming Social Security on their own record or their ex-'s record. But what if the higher earning spouse died before they were 62? Can the surviving divorced spouse who is of retirement age cl...
by Scooter57
Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why I canceled my Connexus 3% 60 Month CD application
Replies: 2
Views: 947

Why I canceled my Connexus 3% 60 Month CD application

I signed up for the 3% Connexus Credit Union CD online yesterday. I have bought many CDs from credit unions online over the past few years. Because this is currently the highest rate available, I expected there would be some delay. These credit unions often get overwhelmed when they have a very good...
by Scooter57
Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amount of Treasury Bonds to Double -- Does Supply/Demand Apply Here?
Replies: 4
Views: 781

Re: Amount of Treasury Bonds to Double -- Does Supply/Demand Apply Here?

There's an interesting article on Bloomberg today about how much of the supposedly offshore corporate hoardings have been stashed in treasuries and will now be taken out and put into stock buybacks. This puts money only into the pockets of those who sell stock--executives paid in stock options espec...
by Scooter57
Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone pondering moving to a cheaper place and downsizing?
Replies: 63
Views: 5040

Re: Anyone pondering moving to a cheaper place and downsizing?

Many years ago, when I decided to give up my high paying corporate job for lifestyle reasons, I did just that. Our house price had doubled in 3 years. We sold it and moved to a much cheaper condo rental. The invested proceeds from the sale of the house paid our rent for the next few years. I was abl...
by Scooter57
Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amount of Treasury Bonds to Double -- Does Supply/Demand Apply Here?
Replies: 4
Views: 781

Amount of Treasury Bonds to Double -- Does Supply/Demand Apply Here?

from: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bond-market-braces-for-1-trillion-tsunami-of-treasurys-this-year-2018-01-16 "The Deutsche Bank strategists estimate the actual amount of debt issuance in 2018 will be closer to $1.15 trillion, doubling the $559 billion from last year. The lion’s share will ste...
by Scooter57
Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Exempt Bond Funds - Considerations after Tax Reform
Replies: 12
Views: 2135

Re: Tax Exempt Bond Funds - Considerations after Tax Reform

Houseblend, Because stock dividends and capital gains are treated separately by the tax code, they aren't relevant to this discussion. But bond or CD income would be, making this of particular interest to retirees with taxable assets and a preferance for fixed income: For example, a retiree who has ...