Search found 1847 matches

by Sammy_M
Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Favorite Portfolio Tilts
Replies: 84
Views: 5520

Re: Your Favorite Portfolio Tilts

. Using an indicative ‘market portfolio’ of: 30% US stocks 25% non-US stocks 23% US bonds 22% Non-US bonds (re: pg 22 of Bill Sharpe’s online book http://web.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/RISMAT/RISMAT-7.pdf) My preferred long-term tilts are: Equities (75% relative to 55% in ‘market portfolio’) Value (tar...
by Sammy_M
Wed Jun 14, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk
Replies: 61
Views: 4925

Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk

Great article, consistent with Larry's teachings on this forum. I don't think Bodie is against equity investing. He merely suggests that an investor build a TIPS/I-Bonds foundation sufficient to "get by" for the duration of one's life expectancy before investing in risky assets. Practicall...
by Sammy_M
Mon Jun 12, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Present US equity risk premium
Replies: 4
Views: 589

Present US equity risk premium

Is this approach reasonable for calculating the expected US equity risk premium? Schiller P/E10 is about 30 . Earnings yield is the inverse, or E10/P, so 3.3%. But we then need to multiply by 1.075 to adjust for lag , so adjusted to 3.6%. Longest TIPS is 30 years, and is presently yielding about 1% ...
by Sammy_M
Sat Jun 10, 2017 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Move taxable to 529 for FAFSA benefits?
Replies: 14
Views: 663

Re: Move taxable to 529 for FAFSA benefits?

This is only true if the parent owns the account and the student is the beneficiary. http://www.savingforcollege.com/intro_to_529s/does-a-529-plan-affect-financial-aid.php Are assets counted on the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA)? Yes, but assets in accounts owned by a dependent st...
by Sammy_M
Sat Jun 10, 2017 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Move taxable to 529 for FAFSA benefits?
Replies: 14
Views: 663

Re: Move taxable to 529 for FAFSA benefits?

Funds in 529 and taxable accounts are treated equally for FAFSA purposes. I'm not sure that is correct for student owned accounts. For student owned taxable, I think the expected contribution is 20%. For student owned 529s, I think it is treated as if owned by the parent, and thus has a lower expec...
by Sammy_M
Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund Investor Shares VWEHX
Replies: 47
Views: 3569

Re: Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund Investor Shares VWEHX

Also, now is not the best time to get into High Yield bonds. Spreads are very low - meaning that the yield premium you get for taking the extra credit risk is small relative to the yield spreads we've seen historically. Note that I don't recommend market timing as a strategy, so I just mention the ...
by Sammy_M
Sat May 13, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 712
Views: 291205

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

^It's going to be very time dependent. From 5/2009 to present using equal parts VTI, VBR, VTRIX, VSS - you could have raised your VFIUX allocation from 20 to 32% and achieved the same return with less volatility, i.e. greater sharpe ratio. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&a...
by Sammy_M
Fri May 12, 2017 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiree Portfolio Review
Replies: 3
Views: 757

Retiree Portfolio Review

May I please have your thoughts on the following investment portfolio for a recently retired couple with about 80% of income needs addressed through inflation adjusted pensions and social security. Little need to take risk, but there is ability and willingness to take reasonable risks to achieve por...
by Sammy_M
Sun May 07, 2017 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PowerShares S&P 500 Value with Momentum ETF (SPVM)
Replies: 10
Views: 874

Re: PowerShares S&P 500 Value with Momentum ETF (SPVM)

Several risks that this fund will not beat the TSM, among them are high turnover, which brings with it transaction costs, value risk, industry concentration risk, non-correlation risk, and momentum investing risk. This fund attempts to down select the market of 500 stock to 200 and then does a mome...
by Sammy_M
Sun May 07, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PowerShares S&P 500 Value with Momentum ETF (SPVM)
Replies: 10
Views: 874

Re: PowerShares S&P 500 Value with Momentum ETF (SPVM)

No arguments there. IF I were to use this fund, it would be a very small allocation in my IRA, complementing TSM in my 401K, to help achieve my desired value tilt. SPVM will probably be about as concentrated as the Guggenheim Pure Value ETFs. You/Jared are likely right that it will not necessarily h...
by Sammy_M
Sun May 07, 2017 6:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PowerShares S&P 500 Value with Momentum ETF (SPVM)
Replies: 10
Views: 874

PowerShares S&P 500 Value with Momentum ETF (SPVM)

I am interested in thoughts on the captioned new Value + Momentum fund that has a 0.30% ER. Mine are that while non-diversified, it should have strong Value and Momentum characteristics. It will be interesting to see once it has a longer history. SPVM seeks to track the S&P 500 High Momentum Val...
by Sammy_M
Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?
Replies: 85
Views: 6411

Re: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?

The standard deviation also tells us more than just what to expect annually, it provides an indication of what to expect over longer time horizons e.g. 25 years. For example a SD of 14 implies returns of one in every six 25 year periods of 2.8 percent below the mean [14/SQRT(25)] i.e. there is abou...
by Sammy_M
Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have a tilt portfolio similar to this
Replies: 22
Views: 2161

Re: Anyone have a tilt portfolio similar to this

Hello, I was just curious if anyone has a portfolio similar to this for their equity portion. 30% total stock market fund 30% Small Cap Value 20% total international fund 20% emerging market This fund is 60/40 as far as US/International. Its also 50% total stock market funds versus 50% in SCV and E...
by Sammy_M
Tue Dec 27, 2016 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?
Replies: 168
Views: 9905

Re: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?

If I consider my mortgage a negative nominal bond, I have close to 100% in TIPS.
by Sammy_M
Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS [good time to invest?]
Replies: 4
Views: 735

Re: TIPS [good time to invest?]

It depends on the comparison point. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is presently 1.94. 5 year b/e inflation rate is 1.79. If actual inflation turns out to be higher over those time frames, you were better off investing in TIPS than nominal Treasuries. See https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/...
by Sammy_M
Sat Sep 24, 2016 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arnott and Asness Square Off on Factor Investing
Replies: 17
Views: 2030

Re: Arnott and Asness Square Off on Factor Investing

Yes, the title is not descriptive. They are agreeing more than disagreeing. The markets, by their very nature, are going to look for inefficiencies and squash them. The inefficiencies are likely to be dynamic. They're likely to change over time. There are a few timeless ones--momentum, for sure; val...
by Sammy_M
Sat Sep 24, 2016 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arnott and Asness Square Off on Factor Investing
Replies: 17
Views: 2030

Arnott and Asness Square Off on Factor Investing

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=770825 Interesting comment. You asked about all of the attention focused on factors. One thing I would say to that is attention doesn't change prices. Money changes prices. Where these flows are coming from is fascinating. We've seen flows out o...
by Sammy_M
Thu Sep 08, 2016 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity and new Factor-based ETF's
Replies: 6
Views: 753

Re: Fidelity and new Factor-based ETF's

Just hope that this doesn't steer them toward discontinuing their deal with iShares. IUSV at 7bp is hard to beat for value.
by Sammy_M
Mon Aug 22, 2016 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you view debt?
Replies: 108
Views: 8005

Re: How do you view debt?

I don't view debt as evil, it's just a slippery slope that a lot of people use unwisely. My general guidance would be: Don't buy what you don't need. If you use debt, maintain ample liquidity. Pay down/off any debt that is > Prime + 3%. Then fund your retirement accounts. Pay down/off any debt great...
by Sammy_M
Thu Jul 28, 2016 6:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Universal life as p/o fixed income allocation
Replies: 4
Views: 489

Re: Universal life as p/o fixed income allocation

afan wrote:Not all of the premium goes into the investment fund. Some may be deducted for commissions, some for premium taxes and other expenses.

Thanks. This is exactly what I was looking to learn.
by Sammy_M
Mon Jul 25, 2016 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Universal life as p/o fixed income allocation
Replies: 4
Views: 489

Universal life as p/o fixed income allocation

I help a relative of mine with her finances. She took out a small universal life 'plus' policy from Ameriprise in the early 90s with a $100K death benefit. Cash value is now in the high 4-figures. I haven't paid much attention to this policy, but in reviewing this weekend I saw the fixed account int...
by Sammy_M
Mon Jul 11, 2016 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations and market timing, and the current CAPE 10
Replies: 88
Views: 9798

Re: Valuations and market timing, and the current CAPE 10

Sammy, should not add 1.5 to the 3.8. The figure should be 3.8% x (1 + [5 x2]) Five year lag and earnings grow about 2% per year in real terms. That brings current earnings yield up to 4.2% and that is the real expected return. It's not the DDM which you add g to the div yield Larry Got it. Thank y...
by Sammy_M
Mon Jul 11, 2016 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations and market timing, and the current CAPE 10
Replies: 88
Views: 9798

Re: Valuations and market timing, and the current CAPE 10

Interesting that even with CAPE 10 over 26, today's equity risk premiums are still fairly attractive because bond yields are so low.

1/PE10 is 3.8 +1.5 = 5.3%
The longest TIPS available is yielding around 0.6% real
4.7% equity risk premium is a little low, but not terribly outside the 'norm'.
by Sammy_M
Fri Feb 12, 2016 2:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Managing kid's internet use
Replies: 46
Views: 5166

Re: Managing kid's internet use

Open DNS and blocking at the router level. That way any devices that connect to the wireless network are subject to parental controls. Plus keeping the main computer in common area. What's a router? What's DNS? Seriously, the technical skill for doing these things is probably more than the average ...
by Sammy_M
Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Managing kid's internet use
Replies: 46
Views: 5166

Re: Managing kid's internet use

Open DNS and blocking at the router level. That way any devices that connect to the wireless network are subject to parental controls.

Plus keeping the main computer in common area.
by Sammy_M
Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to behave on a RGD (Really Good Day)?
Replies: 17
Views: 2109

Re: How to behave on a RGD (Really Good Day)?

Recall a past topic in which Larry Swedroe advocated 5/20 bands. My half-memory of his argument was that as rebalancing is to control risk/return, wider bands would expose us to more/less risk/return than we originally established with our chosen AA. Of course, if we accept the risk (we are as like...
by Sammy_M
Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity or iShares for total stk market?
Replies: 34
Views: 3676

Re: Fidelity or iShares for total stk market?

To the OP's question, the answer is simple. If taxable, buy the iShares Core ETF which has no transaction fees and reasonable bid-ask spread.
by Sammy_M
Fri Feb 05, 2016 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to behave on a RGD (Really Good Day)?
Replies: 17
Views: 2109

Re: How to behave on a RGD (Really Good Day)?

Kevin M wrote:Maybe the 5/25 bands are too narrow considering taxes and the volatility of the investment.

I agree with this, specifically the 25% deviation part. PME has BIG swings. I hold in tax-advantaged, and still will not be rebalancing that frequently.
by Sammy_M
Fri Feb 05, 2016 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity or iShares for total stk market?
Replies: 34
Views: 3676

Re: Fidelity or iShares for total stk market?

iShares ETF if taxable. ETF is inherently more tax efficient. If you transfer brokerages you can move the ETF in-kind. I'm not certain whether that is the case with Fidelity Spartan funds. Maybe someone else can comment. Probably iShares ETF for tax-advantaged accounts too is you're not getting the ...
by Sammy_M
Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rolling Over 529 $ from 2 Different States
Replies: 9
Views: 957

Re: Rolling Over 529 $ from 2 Different States

betterfinances wrote:Uh, why are people trying to move 529s from one state to another?

No in-state tax deduction.
Fixed income rate changes.
Wisen up about benefits of a particular plan.
by Sammy_M
Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rolling Over 529 $ from 2 Different States
Replies: 9
Views: 957

Re: Rolling Over 529 $ *to* 2 Different States

Resurrecting this thread because I am in a similar position, but am trying to go to 2 states. Child 1 and Child 2's 529's are about the same size. Both are in State 1 plan. Child 1's has only been there since Sept '15 when it was transferred from another state. Unfortunately the rate dropped as of 1...
by Sammy_M
Wed Jan 27, 2016 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Software to combine multiple video or audio files
Replies: 16
Views: 1210

Re: Software to combine multiple video or audio files

For audio, Audacity has worked well for me. For video, I've used Windows Move Maker but there are probably better options. Both of the ones mentioned are free.
by Sammy_M
Sun Jan 24, 2016 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't people like the higher level of real estate allocation in Swensen lazy portfolio?
Replies: 33
Views: 3815

Re: Why don't people like the higher level of real estate allocation in Swensen lazy portfolio?

I don't invest in REITS because I have enough residential real estate exposure as it is. I like the idea of 20% in real estate, but not necessarily 20% in REITs. If you don't want to invest in real estate directly or via syndications and are only doing REITS, I think 20% is too much. How does one pr...
by Sammy_M
Sat Jan 23, 2016 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I Bonds
Replies: 27
Views: 3545

Re: I Bonds

^It is also likely that times when you might need emergency funds (unemployment, high med expenses, etc.) are going to be times when your tax rate is lower.
by Sammy_M
Sat Jan 23, 2016 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I Bonds
Replies: 27
Views: 3545

Re: I Bonds

3. In college savings, when you are in a state that has no state tax, under certain income levels you can use proceeds tax free for educational purposes. Many more I'm sure. You can use proceeds tax free for qualified educational purposes if under certain income levels, yes, this is true. I-Bonds a...
by Sammy_M
Sat Jan 23, 2016 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2000 crash like in real time?
Replies: 65
Views: 6719

Re: What was the 2000 crash like in real time?

^And then Enron and WorldCom fiasos in 2002
by Sammy_M
Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Going from 50/50 US/Int to All US
Replies: 80
Views: 7058

Re: Going from 50/50 US/Int to All US

Don't do it. Over the long run, it doesn't matter so much the allocation you choose, as much as the choice to stick with it, even when you are feeling like you are now. When things have been going bad, there will always be experts on the other side of the argument who make a lot of sense to you at t...
by Sammy_M
Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: eyeing micro-cap stocks
Replies: 39
Views: 3483

Re: eyeing micro-cap stocks

. Would just stick with passive funds - if you want micro-cap exposure Bridgeway (BRSIX) is a good choice IMO, but would not suggest market timing, but rather use as long-term holding. . I wholly agree about passive, but have been disappointed with BRSIX's tax efficiency and negative alpha in the l...
by Sammy_M
Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 vs Pre-Paid Plan in Massachusetts?
Replies: 13
Views: 1612

Re: 529 vs Pre-Paid Plan in Massachusetts?

I agree with randomguy's point, but would fund more than that in the U.Plan if you think they could end up going to a MA private university. The overage will still earn CPI tax free, and I don't feel the Am. Opportunity Credit should drive the decision. The Utah 529 plan is very good, particularly i...
by Sammy_M
Tue Jan 19, 2016 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 vs Pre-Paid Plan in Massachusetts?
Replies: 13
Views: 1612

Re: 529 vs Pre-Paid Plan in Massachusetts?

Don't forget that you must keep at least $4k of tuition payments each year ($16k in all) in taxable accounts to take advantage of the American Opportunity Tax Credit , a $2.5k/year Federal tax credit (100% of the first $2k of tuition payments & 25% of the next $2k of tuition payments). You can'...
by Sammy_M
Sun Jan 17, 2016 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 vs Pre-Paid Plan in Massachusetts?
Replies: 13
Views: 1612

Re: 529 vs Pre-Paid Plan in Massachusetts?

Because Harvard and MIT don't participate. Also, I said "tax-free, virtually risk-free returns equal to CPI" without looking into it. I recommend that you verify that if your kids go to a non-participating school that when you receive the proceeds with CPI returns, that those returns aren'...
by Sammy_M
Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 vs Pre-Paid Plan in Massachusetts?
Replies: 13
Views: 1612

Re: 529 vs Pre-Paid Plan in Massachusetts?

Do most kids who graduate from your town's high school go to MA colleges? Any chance they would be going to Ivy schools? If the answers are yes and no respectively, U.Plan sounds great. At worst you'll get tax-free, virtually risk-free returns equal to CPI. Hard to beat that with fixed income these ...
by Sammy_M
Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone simplify the Asset Location debate?
Replies: 86
Views: 5904

Re: Can someone simplify the Asset Location debate?

In your model, the IRS and state own 31.6% (not 33% because state tax is deductible from federal tax) of your IRA Thank you for checking out the model and pointing this out. I've made the adjustment. However, an exception to the statement is for those subject to AMT. Check your risk numbers; see wh...
by Sammy_M
Tue Jan 12, 2016 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone simplify the Asset Location debate?
Replies: 86
Views: 5904

Re: Can someone simplify the Asset Location debate?

Taylor Larimore wrote:When experts disagree, it is often because it does not make a foreseeable difference.


I think the underlined word is very important. It can make a big difference as noted in my scenario below, but we don't know the future.

Image
by Sammy_M
Mon Jan 11, 2016 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone simplify the Asset Location debate?
Replies: 86
Views: 5904

Re: Can someone simplify the Asset Location debate?

Here is another way to simplify: 1. Anything can be held in a Roth IRA: bonds, equities, REITs, whatever. 2. Anything can be held in a traditional IRA or 401(k): bonds, equities, REITs, whatever. 3. A taxable account should be used for tax-efficient investments: index funds with low turnover that p...
by Sammy_M
Sun Jan 10, 2016 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Bogleheads Buying I-Bonds 2016?
Replies: 87
Views: 17303

Re: Are Bogleheads Buying I-Bonds 2016?

My goal is to evaluate which is the superior strategy between I-Bonds in taxable + stocks in a TIRA vs. stocks in taxable + TIPS in TIRA This is a complicated comparison, Sammy. Be aware of the following: ⋅ I don't think it's realistic to assume a 0.1% fixed rate I Bond will be held 30 ye...
by Sammy_M
Sat Jan 09, 2016 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Bogleheads Buying I-Bonds 2016?
Replies: 87
Views: 17303

Re: Are Bogleheads Buying I-Bonds 2016?

Here's an example using a 1.25% yield for the TIPS and a 0.1% fixed rate for the I Bond over 30 years with a 2% annual increase in the CPI. Thank you the formulas and analysis above. I wonder if you would mind assisting with a question. I added two columns to your analysis. One for stocks in taxabl...
by Sammy_M
Mon Jan 04, 2016 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Bogleheads Buying I-Bonds 2016?
Replies: 87
Views: 17303

Re: Are Bogleheads Buying I-Bonds 2016?

I agree TIPS in a 401K/IRA are preferable to I-Bonds, but no one should buy I-Bonds before fully funding their 401K/IRA, etc. Then...if you then buy I-Bonds, you can place other tax inefficient assets in your 401K/IRA. What is "tax-efficient" vs. not is relative. For higher earners, it may...
by Sammy_M
Sun Jan 03, 2016 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Fund Returns
Replies: 17
Views: 4145

Re: Vanguard Fund Returns

One more interesting point. The Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility Fund Investor Shares, an actively managed fund with a 50 US/50 INTL low volatility portfolio using currency hedging in INTL was up +5.8% for the year, 7.8% higher than the Total World Stock Index Fund which has an identical US/INTL ...
by Sammy_M
Sun Jan 03, 2016 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI adds quality and momentum screens to value strategies
Replies: 1
Views: 425

Re: RAFI adds quality and momentum screens to value strategies

Thanks for sharing. Added the ERs for those interested PIMCO RAE Fundamental Global Fund - 50bp PIMCO RAE Fundamental US Fund - 40bp PIMCO RAE Fundamental US Small Fund - 50bp PIMCO RAE Fundamental International Fund - 50bp PIMCO RAE Fundamental Emerging Markets Fund -75bp They look to be a little l...

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