Search found 13505 matches

by Rodc
Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rate to project out savings
Replies: 21
Views: 1947

Re: Rate to project out savings

I don't think it is possible to accurately plan that far in advance. The two things you need to do: 1. Save at least 15% of your income. 2. Live below your means so that you don't have a large amount of debt. Everything you spend on is in play and includes housing, cars, clothing , vacations, enter...
by Rodc
Tue Jan 31, 2017 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rate to project out savings
Replies: 21
Views: 1947

Re: Rate to project out savings

I don't think it is possible to accurately plan that far in advance. The two things you need to do: 1. Save at least 15% of your income. 2. Live below your means so that you don't have a large amount of debt. Everything you spend on is in play and includes housing, cars, clothing , vacations, enter...
by Rodc
Tue Jan 31, 2017 6:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rate to project out savings
Replies: 21
Views: 1947

Re: Rate to project out savings

sport wrote:DD got married. :oops: Thanks for the correction.


Well, she is someone's DW!
by Rodc
Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rate to project out savings
Replies: 21
Views: 1947

Re: Rate to project out savings

3% real is fine. This is not a particularly accurate exercise no matter what you do. I suggest you also look at something lower and higher. Say 1% and 5%. If 1% is a complete fail you are at some modest risk, so would want to at least consider increasing savings. If you get lucky and have really sol...
by Rodc
Sat Jan 28, 2017 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Glass top for a new kitchen table
Replies: 15
Views: 828

Re: Glass top for a new kitchen table

An easy cheap alternative to glass: Lightly padded vinyl table cloth cut to fit, cover that with a nicer looking table cloth. The ones I am thinking of are sort of flocked on one side which is the side you put down. When they are older you can switch to nice placemats at dinner time and otherwise le...
by Rodc
Sat Jan 28, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Criteria for admittance to the 2-comma club
Replies: 79
Views: 5707

Re: Criteria for admittance to the 2-comma club

First milestone - $1 million counting home equity. Second milestone - $1 million in investable assets, ignoring home equity. Approaching third milestone - $2 million if I start counting home equity again! 4th milestone - $2 million in investable assets, ignoring home equity - RETIREMENT! +1 Homer, ...
by Rodc
Sat Jan 28, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone moved to another state for lower cost of living?
Replies: 56
Views: 6490

Re: Anyone moved to another state for lower cost of living?

OP: the subject of your post seems to have little to do with your actual post. You want a plan but do not really provided a goal or goals, or time line desired for achieving the goal(s). If you had explicit goals like "get to where we had enough money to retire in cali as soon as possible"...
by Rodc
Thu Jan 26, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Full time to part time.
Replies: 41
Views: 3082

Re: Full time to part time.

You need to save a LOT these days for retirement and $672K is next to nothing since it sounds like you don't have pensions. And his social security will be way lower if he does this. Okay, let's have a little non-Boglehead reality check here. Having over $600k in retirement savings in one's mid-to-...
by Rodc
Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Full time to part time.
Replies: 41
Views: 3082

Re: Full time to part time.

You need to save a LOT these days for retirement and $672K is next to nothing since it sounds like you don't have pensions. And his social security will be way lower if he does this. Okay, let's have a little non-Boglehead reality check here. Having over $600k in retirement savings in one's mid-to-...
by Rodc
Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Full time to part time.
Replies: 41
Views: 3082

Re: Full time to part time.

Goal33 wrote:Is he just lazy? I can't imagine willingly going from 85k to 43k income if I wasn't closer to financial independence.


Because guys are not allowed the same leeway to want to have family time as women. :oops:
by Rodc
Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Full time to part time.
Replies: 41
Views: 3082

Re: Full time to part time.

Sounds good for him. What about you? What do you gain from his plan? How about equity with her partner? What is good for the gander is good for the goose and vice versa. Or maybe she can take a turn at full time? One thing to consider is either one or both can go back to full time when the kids are...
by Rodc
Mon Jan 23, 2017 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unidirectional rebalancing?
Replies: 18
Views: 1811

Re: Unidirectional rebalancing?

FWIW: My 401K originally only had this rebalancing option. New money could go in 40/60, 70/30 or 100/0 and if wanted you could change to elect to have new money go in 100% stocks, but you could not sell bonds to buy stocks. By the late 1990s that had changed when we moved to Fidelity and a "mod...
by Rodc
Mon Jan 23, 2017 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TurboTax is playing games again.
Replies: 52
Views: 9418

Re: TurboTax is playing games again.

We end up giving a lot of stuff to Goodwill and others. (another entire thread could be devoted to why my wife has so much to donate, but let's not go there. Not to mention kids outgrowing various items). One thing nice about TurboTax deluxe is the built in tool for valuing a jacket or a pair of sho...
by Rodc
Mon Jan 23, 2017 8:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Value of company provided benefits
Replies: 9
Views: 612

Re: Value of company provided benefits

If you are comparing one job offer to another you can value things like vacation time however it suits you. Companies who provide a total comp sheet to you will always value things in whatever way gives the biggest number. You are free to use your own judgement as to how you want to compute total co...
by Rodc
Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with Retirement Projection Assumptions
Replies: 35
Views: 3228

Re: Help with Retirement Projection Assumptions

Rodc, The question I have is how does one know by how much to change any of the variables in a way that the change is meaningfully different from the original assumption, but not so unreasonably/unrealistically different that there's no way that scenario will play out. Thanks. That is an excellent ...
by Rodc
Mon Jan 23, 2017 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refuse to pay California State Tax—what can they do ?
Replies: 16
Views: 3157

Re: Refuse to pay California State Tax—what can they do ?

I'm no lawyer, but my guess is the worst thing they can do is a great deal worse than $1300. And they can probably garnish wages, after adding more fees and interest. As for liens I presume there is some sort of reciprocity agreement with VA. That presumes they have a case that would hold up in cour...
by Rodc
Mon Jan 23, 2017 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hypo: What would you do if you were SURE of impending deline in markets
Replies: 62
Views: 4198

Re: Hypo: What would you do if you were SURE of impending deline in markets

Since it is a hypothetical situation that will never happen (as noted above need to know not just that it will happen but when) any and all answers are fine. You can never find a counter example to a statement about the empty set to prove the statement wrong.
by Rodc
Mon Jan 23, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with Retirement Projection Assumptions
Replies: 35
Views: 3228

Re: Help with Retirement Projection Assumptions

Rodc, The question I have is how does one know by how much to change any of the variables in a way that the change is meaningfully different from the original assumption, but not so unreasonably/unrealistically different that there's no way that scenario will play out. Thanks. That is an excellent ...
by Rodc
Mon Jan 23, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone file "decline in value" for property taxes? Advice?
Replies: 26
Views: 1821

Re: Anyone file "decline in value" for property taxes? Advice?

Doesn't hurt to try, but small percentage amounts are often ignored by board of appeals. I am sure it depends on where you are, but +/- 0.5% is noise. In our state the assessments only have to be accurate to +-10%, and really, how accurate can an assessment be? No one knows to much better than that...
by Rodc
Mon Jan 23, 2017 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with Retirement Projection Assumptions
Replies: 35
Views: 3228

Re: Help with Retirement Projection Assumptions

...vary the assumptions to learn which changes make a significant difference in the result and which do not. Then spend some time looking at what happens when things that matter are more pessimistic and more optimistic than assumed in the baseline case... Rodc, The question I have is how does one k...
by Rodc
Sat Jan 21, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: East Coast And Work/Life Balance
Replies: 68
Views: 5811

Re: East Coast And Work/Life Balance

I live in Atlanta, in one of those awful states others were making fun of, have a paid-for home and a nice income that will allow me to retire early. The metro area is one of the largest in the country, has cultural activities, any sports team you can think of, lots of hiking within a 30 minute dri...
by Rodc
Sat Jan 21, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When/If a degree is useful for software developers?
Replies: 45
Views: 2954

Re: When/If a degree is useful for software developers?

I am enjoying all these posts: Q Is a degree useful? A: I have a degree and have been employed in a software field for decades so no a degree is not useful. :oops: Bottom line is that a degree will be useful in the sense that it will open some non-trivial number of doors that will be closed due to n...
by Rodc
Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using "worst case" portfolio results to help determine asset allocation - yea or nay?
Replies: 35
Views: 2866

Re: Using "worst case" portfolio results to help determine asset allocation - yea or nay?

CUlater, here's an article that puts things in perspective https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-stock-bear-markets-and-their-subsequent-recoveries-2388520 Here's peak/trough/recovery https://blog.wealthfront.com/no-need-to-fear-market-corrections/ I realize you are familiar with the data, but to address ...
by Rodc
Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Annual Vacation Budget
Replies: 320
Views: 23312

Re: Annual Vacation Budget

I can absolutely get spending 3-4k on a vacation and I might do that someday in the future. So someone saying they spent 3k for their Hawaii vacation seems reasonable. But these numbers like 18k etc sound insanely high unless you are spending months in hong kong living high on the hog. Here is an e...
by Rodc
Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help - Which of these bond funds are best for my bond allocation?
Replies: 10
Views: 1250

Re: Help - Which of these bond funds are best for my bond allocation?

First thing is to eliminate the long term bond funds as we know interest rates are going to rise. Then you eliminate the short term ones due to the extremely low yield, leaving vgit. I think that is a reasonable answer. This is what I would do. Unfortunately for some reason it was eliminated from m...
by Rodc
Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Jackson Hole in July?
Replies: 13
Views: 1549

Re: Jackson Hole in July?

I think when my kids were 7, maybe 6, we spent two weeks in that area in July. About a week in Jackson Hole, two or three days in Jackson, and four or five days in Yellowstone. One son cried for 30 minute prior to going to bed the last two nights, "I don't ever want to leave Wyoming!" So I...
by Rodc
Sat Jan 21, 2017 6:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Load up on cash - it might be one of your best investments
Replies: 53
Views: 9001

Re: Load up on cash - it might be one of your best investments

"cash" is just really short "bonds". Don't consider an asset in isolation but rather how it fits in with your other assets to build a portfolio and how that portfolio is positioned to best meet your needs. Being just very stable FI, cash might allow you to hold more in stocks and...
by Rodc
Sat Jan 21, 2017 6:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New SUV, $50G, Pilot/Highlander/Other
Replies: 130
Views: 15825

Re: New SUV, $50G, Pilot/Highlander/Other

Get a base model Forrester. Then folks on threads like this can call you cheap. Take money saved, eat in nice restaurants and post in the How much do you spend at restaurants thread and have folks tell you that you are a spend thrift. Or go for broke and spend the money saved on vacation and post in...
by Rodc
Fri Jan 20, 2017 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using "worst case" portfolio results to help determine asset allocation - yea or nay?
Replies: 35
Views: 2866

Re: Using "worst case" portfolio results to help determine asset allocation - yea or nay?

One of my pet peeves is that some of the retirement simulators report a chance of "failure" like you would keep mindlessly spending until you are broke and homeless. There should be some better way to phrase that since it means that you would need to change your plans and cut cut some of ...
by Rodc
Fri Jan 20, 2017 5:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Annual Vacation Budget
Replies: 320
Views: 23312

Re: Annual Vacation Budget

I agree with your way of calculation. If you have a budget of $xxx,xxx, that means you can spend cash upto $xxx,xxx. Think about it this way, if the airline bumps you from cattle class to first class, would that change your budget for that trip? If you are going for a cruise at the lowest category ...
by Rodc
Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: East Coast And Work/Life Balance
Replies: 68
Views: 5811

Re: East Coast And Work/Life Balance

Everything is better in Texas. Recommend pursuing opportunities in the following states (in no particular order): Texas Alabama Georgia North Carolina South Carolina Tennessee Kentucky Indiana Yikes--be careful. Alabama ranks at the bottom of some metrics that matter--like life expectancy, obesity,...
by Rodc
Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: East Coast And Work/Life Balance
Replies: 68
Views: 5811

Re: East Coast And Work/Life Balance

Here are some additional information: Even back in Texas, it was not just an 8 hour work schedule. I had the flexibility to go and come back anytime depends on the meetings. I also caught up on work after my toddler went back to sleep. When I had more work, I left home around 6 AM and come back by ...
by Rodc
Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using "worst case" portfolio results to help determine asset allocation - yea or nay?
Replies: 35
Views: 2866

Re: Using "worst case" portfolio results to help determine asset allocation - yea or nay?

BTW- the worst drawdown was far worse than 37%, in 2008 bear from top to bottom was more like 60%, and in 2000-02 was closer to 50% if memory serves. As to your question, while you certainly should CONSIDER the worst case, that doesn't imply that it alone should determine you AA. What you need to c...
by Rodc
Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 331
Views: 54732

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

I guess if you want those things and you can afford them, fine, but it would seem to me that anyone who lived a low-key lifestyle wouldn't want to be flashy just because they turned forty. The traditional Harley sales suggest many do. I would think after sacrificing for the kids, saving for retirem...
by Rodc
Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Y2k retiree how is s/he holding up after 2016
Replies: 26
Views: 3939

Re: Y2k retiree how is s/he holding up after 2016

[*]My AA of 75/25 today may benefit from transitioning to 80/20 (or even higher if I could stomach that) vs. the current plan of going to 70/30 by retirement. I suggest you are reading rather more into the the results than the input data support. See for example AlohaJoe. We only have a couple of m...
by Rodc
Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Convincing spouse to sell losing investment
Replies: 58
Views: 4453

Re: Convincing spouse to sell losing investment

Proceed with great caution. Your marriage is at risk. People argue more, and more bitterly, about money than about anything else, and everything described makes it sound as if this is a time of financial stress for the both of you. This all falls in the category of "easy to say and hard to do,...
by Rodc
Thu Jan 19, 2017 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mathematics of international asset allocation
Replies: 44
Views: 4394

Re: Mathematics of international asset allocation

if you don't use mathematics as a guide, what do you use? Mathematics in inexpert hands can be more harmful than helpful. Many learn to move symbols around on a page and yet never really understand either the power or the limitations of mathematics. You can use history. You can use theory. You can ...
by Rodc
Thu Jan 19, 2017 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mathematics of international asset allocation
Replies: 44
Views: 4394

Re: Mathematics of international asset allocation

The biggest thing wrong with the model is that you're using expected values for 5 variables. You're guessing and need to be right 5 times. You're covering up the imprecision of the process and hiding it behind a precise answer to your equation. I might just say I would phrase it as "You're cov...
by Rodc
Thu Jan 19, 2017 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Y2k retiree how is s/he holding up after 2016
Replies: 26
Views: 3939

Re: Y2k retiree how is s/he holding up after 2016

livesoft wrote:The following may interest readers of this thread.
Case Study 2000-2016


Just skimmed it, but it seems that is a Monte Carlo result, not a result based on real funds over that time period. Is that right?
by Rodc
Thu Jan 19, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"
Replies: 173
Views: 16835

Re: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"

Not much in that article that didn't apply to 18-30 year-olds when I was that age and my parents before me. You are supposed to have a negative net worth durinng those years. So Millennials can look forward to the days when they become the Old Farts just like everybody else did. Yes, that is the wa...
by Rodc
Thu Jan 19, 2017 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"
Replies: 173
Views: 16835

Re: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"

http://economicalmillennial.com/numbers-are-in-the-average-net-worth-of-americans-ages-18-30-is-17612/ I'm just gonna leave this here. For those curious a new study by Robert Farrington (The College Investor) found the average networth of Americans 18-30 is $-17,612. It takes into account all asset...
by Rodc
Thu Jan 19, 2017 7:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ok to pull plug and retire?
Replies: 52
Views: 7411

Re: ok to pull plug and retire?

Is this an honest question or a humble brag?
by Rodc
Thu Jan 19, 2017 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it ok to stop contributing to retirement accounts?
Replies: 11
Views: 2254

Re: Is it ok to stop contributing to retirement accounts?

We're married, I just say partner out of habit - workplace norms. My husband is a CA public school teacher, is vested in CALSTRs and has 20 more years until he retires at 62. There is no 403b match for him, but any leftover funds could be invested in a ROTH/spousal ROTH. I work in HR and could retu...
by Rodc
Thu Jan 19, 2017 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay down 1.9% loan or invest
Replies: 61
Views: 4683

Re: Pay down 1.9% loan or invest

I knew people who where out of work or under-employed for more than a year during the crashes of the economy in 2002/2003 and 2008. Some thought their jobs were safe, and did not have enough saved for such an emergency. So six months is good, but 12 months of savings is a lot better. On the other h...
by Rodc
Thu Jan 19, 2017 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: East Coast And Work/Life Balance
Replies: 68
Views: 5811

Re: East Coast And Work/Life Balance

Generalizations are often wrong. I note that you are not working more hours in the day. I used to go in very late when my kids were toddlers so we could spend the morning having fun while they were nice and perky! Wife would pick them up around 3:30pm (started work at 7:00am) after I dropped them of...
by Rodc
Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you be worried about losing money in bonds?
Replies: 14
Views: 2802

Re: Should you be worried about losing money in bonds?

Chart of historical drawdowns of U.S. bonds vs. stocks since 1926. How risky do bonds look? If you update the chart to account for inflation, they would look risky. For example, from the end of 1940 to the end of 1981, 10-year treasuries had a 55% loss after accounting for inflation (see http://pag...
by Rodc
Wed Jan 18, 2017 6:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it ok to stop contributing to retirement accounts?
Replies: 11
Views: 2254

Re: Is it ok to stop contributing to retirement accounts?

Life is all about trade offs. Security now vs security later. Consumption now vs later. Time now vs time later. Many people have made the choice you are considering in less favorable situations. If his pension is really something like 80% of last 3 year's salary (ie future salary not current salary)...
by Rodc
Tue Jan 17, 2017 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"
Replies: 173
Views: 16835

Re: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"

Day9 wrote:
Rodc wrote:...
But even that hides a lot. More scary are the numbers by education and race.


Especially net worth by demographic. The differences are much more pronounced than income.


Indeed.
by Rodc
Tue Jan 17, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"
Replies: 173
Views: 16835

Re: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"

But if you read the article closely you'll see that new graduates graduated with an average of $35,000 in debt. I read the article and looked up Mark Kantrowitz who gave that figure. I think we all know what Fake News is and need more than a quickie on MarketWatch to get our facts straight. I would...
by Rodc
Tue Jan 17, 2017 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deciding on types of bonds is harder than stocks!
Replies: 20
Views: 2387

Re: Deciding on types of bonds is harder than stocks!

One thought is that the more debate there is the less the answer matters. Another thought is that bonds supply an excellent pinhead on which to dance. There is a reason the three fund portfolio often recommended here simply selects a total bond market index even though the nature of that index can ...

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