Search found 13026 matches

by Rodc
Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Deep Learning" and the stock market?
Replies: 2
Views: 383

Re: "Deep Learning" and the stock market?

"Deep Learning" is just a buzzword. But, various machine learning techniques (another older buzzword) could certainly make money for a small number of high end quant houses, at least for a little while. Big outfits spending millions of dollars on computing power and extremely fast communic...
by Rodc
Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Not happy with my realtor
Replies: 44
Views: 3610

Re: Not happy with my realtor

I'm a buyer and he's shown me 5 or 6 houses. I'm looking in a particular and relatively small neighborhood. Would it be unreasonable or inappropriate for me to ask him to contact the homeowners there to see if any might be interested in selling? Maybe I should stop thinking of him as my advocate. T...
by Rodc
Sun Dec 04, 2016 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to darken type in firefox or chrome?
Replies: 27
Views: 1192

Re: How to darken type in firefox or chrome?

I just went into Firefox-options-content-fonts&colors-colors and told it to always use black Now the comments are black on white vs grey on white on your example site. FWIW age 59 and generally very good vision though I do wear dime-store reading glasses. While I could read the grey on white it ...
by Rodc
Sun Dec 04, 2016 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do You Consider Dividends As Income?
Replies: 62
Views: 3144

Re: Do You Consider Dividends As Income?

retire57 wrote:
dbr wrote:
So, again, what are you doing with that number?


Making a chart in Quicken that combines earned and unearned income in order to track the numbers. Simple!


That just begs the question: why are you tracking them? What are you really doing this for?
by Rodc
Sun Dec 04, 2016 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do You Consider Dividends As Income?
Replies: 62
Views: 3144

Re: Do You Consider Dividends As Income?

If I understand the intent of the question I would count as income anything I took out of the portfolio that I intended to spend. In this case I would just leave dividends in "investments" if that is what I did and count as "income" if I took them to spend (as income). If I took ...
by Rodc
Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Not happy with my realtor
Replies: 44
Views: 3610

Re: Not happy with my realtor

He is not your advocate. He works for the seller(s), not you. If you want an advocate get a buyers agent. That said, a realtor if any good will get you into a house because that helps the seller he actually works for. Just don't expect him to get you the lowest price when he is being paid by the se...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 03, 2016 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Picking College and College Scholarships
Replies: 227
Views: 9683

Re: Picking College and College Scholarships

His info session at Harvard lasted a few minutes before he texted his mother, sitting next to him, "could they be any more pretentious?" Since then, at The Game, he reports that many H students are miserable and regret their decision because of the social life. Interesting. I know many mi...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 03, 2016 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Picking College and College Scholarships
Replies: 227
Views: 9683

Re: Picking College and College Scholarships

His info session at Harvard lasted a few minutes before he texted his mother, sitting next to him, "could they be any more pretentious?" Since then, at The Game, he reports that many H students are miserable and regret their decision because of the social life. Interesting. I know many mi...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 03, 2016 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forget the 4% safe withdrawal rule -- use RMDs instead.
Replies: 41
Views: 4351

Re: Forget the 4% safe withdrawal rule -- use RMDs instead.

The more you are willing to cut spending if things don't work out, the more you can spend in average cases. People complain about RMDs because they don't want to spend more money. At a certain point people spend what they want to spend. They aren't going to spend 20k more just because they have the...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 03, 2016 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An opinion on bond investing in today's environment
Replies: 15
Views: 991

Re: An opinion on bond investing in today's environment

livesoft wrote:I like to protect myself from conspiracy theorists, Romanian high school kids, and dogs on the internet. They are all experts in their own ways.


:)
by Rodc
Sat Dec 03, 2016 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An opinion on bond investing in today's environment
Replies: 15
Views: 991

Re: An opinion on bond investing in today's environment

On the merits I would say his opinion is way over-blown and his use to inflammatory language sounds like a scare tactic to sell something.
by Rodc
Sat Dec 03, 2016 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An opinion on bond investing in today's environment
Replies: 15
Views: 991

Re: An opinion on bond investing in today's environment

who is the "expert"? My low opinion of the "experts" was cemented when Bill "the bond king" Gross dumped all his treasuries .... and my treasury bonds proceeded to skyrocked some months later when rates went negative. Don't waste your time reading the "expert"...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 03, 2016 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody regretting holding on to your REITS?
Replies: 97
Views: 10924

Re: Anybody regretting holding on to your REITS?

Looks like VNQ is down substantially after a gradual decline the last few months. Any regrets, or holding on for the long haul? If one feels this question is germane to their own investing they do not understand the basics of investing. Risky assets go up (sometimes). Risky assets go down (sometime...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 03, 2016 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Howard Schultz stepping down [Starbucks CEO]
Replies: 11
Views: 1450

Re: Howard Schultz stepping down

From the article: "Mr. Schultz said he intends for the company to “maintain our moral courage.'" I had no idea that high end $12 a cup coffee (Mr. Schultz's new mission) was an exercise in ethics. I completely missed this in my Ethics courses. The World According to Starbucks. :wink: Lev ...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 03, 2016 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 149
Views: 10998

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

As I recall, Merriman's website has papers on how his portfolios have been developed. I would recommend that those curious investigate that resource. Such as this? http://paulmerriman.com/the-ultimate-retirement-portfolio/ He is a little schizophrenic. He has some good indexing papers. Then he also...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 03, 2016 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theoretical high returns unsustainable?
Replies: 19
Views: 1706

Re: Theoretical high returns unsustainable?

How about a ten percent real return from the stock market ad infinitum? 250 years goes to 22 billion times If only you invested a penny in revolutionary times .... (stocks would then probably be an animal stock yard and you would own 22 billion cows) Exponential curves rarely have real meaning in f...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 03, 2016 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three fund portfolio for retirement
Replies: 61
Views: 5579

Re: Three fund portfolio for retirement

itstoomuch wrote:For this forum, YMMV means "Your MONEY May Vary" :mrgreen:
I also use variations in different threads on BH. :wink:

YMMV(Your Meaning May Vary) :oops:


Very good! I like them all.
by Rodc
Sat Dec 03, 2016 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of international do you hold?
Replies: 108
Views: 3892

Re: What percentage of international do you hold?

When working on the yearly returns, right? Yeah. There are also some concerns and considerations outside of the scope of the data examined as well. For example, it's very possible that the average US worker's income is more correlated with or at least related to US stock returns than ex-US stock re...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forget the 4% safe withdrawal rule -- use RMDs instead.
Replies: 41
Views: 4351

Re: Forget the 4% safe withdrawal rule -- use RMDs instead.

You might want to search this site for "variable withdrawal rate" for some related research. Look for a very long thread. Rodc, I think you meant "Variable Percentage Withdrawal" (VPW). Here are the links: ⋅  Wiki page: Variable percentage withdrawal ⋅  Forum...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of international do you hold?
Replies: 108
Views: 3892

Re: What percentage of international do you hold?

Did you keep the returns paired by year? So for example if it was a year of global recession both US and international had the same influence? As opposed to sampling from 1998 US and 2008 International - which pairs a boom year in the US and a recession year internationally. Yep. The correlation be...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone use a tankless hot water heater???
Replies: 26
Views: 2290

Re: Anyone use a tankless hot water heater???

I love our tankless water heater (note ours maybe different because we heat cold water not hot water). Five people in the house (now down to 4) and never have to worry about waiting for hot water. No problem with variable temp, though for all I know that is due to modern faucets. On the other hand i...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three fund portfolio for retirement
Replies: 61
Views: 5579

Re: Three fund portfolio for retirement

Taylor wrote: Bogleheads: The big unknown costs in retirement are medical costs which can often exceed $100,000 (I already know). The average lifetime retirement health care premium costs for a 65-year-old healthy couple retiring this year and covered by Medicare Parts B, D, and a supplemental insu...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Not happy with my realtor
Replies: 44
Views: 3610

Re: Not happy with my realtor

I'm a buyer and he's shown me 5 or 6 houses. I'm looking in a particular and relatively small neighborhood. Would it be unreasonable or inappropriate for me to ask him to contact the homeowners there to see if any might be interested in selling? Maybe I should stop thinking of him as my advocate. T...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forget the 4% safe withdrawal rule -- use RMDs instead.
Replies: 41
Views: 4351

Re: Forget the 4% safe withdrawal rule -- use RMDs instead.

You might want to search this site for "variable withdrawal rate" for some related research. Look for a very long thread. What is your take on using utility maximization and constant relative risk aversion framework such as Sun and Webb use versus a strictly maximum spending or lack of fa...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many books should i read for long term investing.
Replies: 22
Views: 930

Re: How many books should i read for long term imnvesting.

Hi, As a long term investor who just wants to get market returns,should I read any more books then The bogleheads guide to retirements and investing? I have the time, to read more , but should I really bother? I think that I might get influenced or steered in a different directions by some other bo...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forget the 4% safe withdrawal rule -- use RMDs instead.
Replies: 41
Views: 4351

Re: Forget the 4% safe withdrawal rule -- use RMDs instead.

You might want to search this site for "variable withdrawal rate" for some related research. Look for a very long thread.
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of international do you hold?
Replies: 108
Views: 3892

Re: What percentage of international do you hold?

Hopefully this is useful. I took the years from 1970-2015, and resampled them with replacement 5000 times, to produce 5000 different possible return sequences. Then I calculated the geometric mean return and standard deviation of returns for each of the 5000 simulations for a range of different int...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of international do you hold?
Replies: 108
Views: 3892

Re: What percentage of international do you hold?

The Wiki section Domestic/International Allocation (full title to make the link more noticeable) does have later data including emerging markets, but still only to 2007. Also, note the lack of return numbers. It would be nice to have updated charts. Would also be nice to see actual numbers on the p...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of international do you hold?
Replies: 108
Views: 3892

Re: What percentage of international do you hold?

The Wiki section Domestic/International Allocation (full title to make the link more noticeable) does have later data including emerging markets, but still only to 2007. Also, note the lack of return numbers. It would be nice to have updated charts. :D https://www.bogleheads.org/w/images/3/38/US-In...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 3:55 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: posting a too tall picture
Replies: 6
Views: 558

posting a too tall picture

I know this is easy - pretty sure I have done it before, but for the life of me I cannot figure out the BBCode to post this picture (need it a max height of 1200 pixels)

https://www.bogleheads.org/w/images/c/c ... decade.png

Thanks in advance.
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of international do you hold?
Replies: 108
Views: 3892

Re: What percentage of international do you hold?

Sorry, thought you were interested in sensitivity to time periods. Are you interested only in sensitivity to what indices/funds are used? No, I mean that one can do a statistical analysis on the entire time series and get a the standard error of the estimates. Doing this basically means that you ma...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of international do you hold?
Replies: 108
Views: 3892

Re: What percentage of international do you hold?

interesting how such a small time frame can change the result so much (assuming indices doesnt make a large diference). As a check, I looked at my indices from 1970-2008 to see if I got the same answer as the other plot. Qualitatively, yes: over that time period, the optimal allocation for max retu...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of international do you hold?
Replies: 108
Views: 3892

Re: What percentage of international do you hold?

interesting how such a small time frame can change the result so much (assuming indices doesnt make a large diference). As a check, I looked at my indices from 1970-2008 to see if I got the same answer as the other plot. Qualitatively, yes: over that time period, the optimal allocation for max retu...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 149
Views: 10998

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

Have you read the papers on historical size/value premia being explained (at least partially... really it depends on the period and analysis) by exposure to relative negative skewness? How do you square this all? We don't know the probability distributions of future return, and I don't trust the me...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 149
Views: 10998

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

lack_ey wrote:I kind of understood the highlighting, but you mentioned citations and I do recall mentioning papers before that post. I think that was me, not jalbert.



Yes, that request was directed to jalbert.
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of international do you hold?
Replies: 108
Views: 3892

Re: What percentage of international do you hold?

I am not suggesting cherry picking. But I do think it is a mistake to not look at sub-periods to get better understanding of sensitivity. And that data is side by side with the chart provided in the site wiki. That's fair - I wouldn't discourage anyone from looking at the data in greater detail. Bu...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 149
Views: 10998

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

If you are correct, at least on average if not in all cases, it would seem then that a natural improvement on CAPM would be to include skewness (or something similar) as an asset attribute. Or the Sharp Ratio would be improved by including skewness. Has anyone done this? Or that Morningstar or simi...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 149
Views: 10998

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

IMHO it is more important you follow a plan then try to get the perfect one. Staying the Course and sticking to your plan is more important. Amen to that. When I see the periodic thread that debates the merits of adding SV to a TSM portfolio, I chuckle a little. I mean, it is debated on this board ...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of international do you hold?
Replies: 108
Views: 3892

Re: What percentage of international do you hold?

Moreover if you look at the page where this comes from you see that over different time periods of significant length the performance can be very different - smoothing by averaging of a long period hides a great deal of important information. I assume he used all the data that was available. Sure, ...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of international do you hold?
Replies: 108
Views: 3892

Re: What percentage of international do you hold?

To answer the OP, I am 55/45 US/International stocks and about 80/20 for bonds.

Is that optimal? No idea.
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of international do you hold?
Replies: 108
Views: 3892

Re: What percentage of international do you hold?

That chart is a wonderful example of how to lie with statistics (or misinform, in this case accidentally as I know this was not the intent). To begin, if you were to graph this properly, with (0,0) at the origin and not (17.0%, 8.7%) you would see the variations in this graph are tiny. Over the enti...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theoretical high returns unsustainable?
Replies: 19
Views: 1706

Re: Theoretical high returns unsustainable?

Hi, My knowledge of math and the economy is very basic so go easy on me please. Some people claim some insane 50% a year returns in trading and speculating over many yrs even 20 or so . I know it is non-sense but hypothetically only , would that be even possible if you had a system that worked? Let...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 02, 2016 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 149
Views: 10998

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

This definitely doesn't generalize to other higher-risk assets in general. It depends on the distribution. It's OK if we disagree. Some people believe that the property of a market being efficient does constrain the properties of the distribution of returns in certain ways, as I described above. So...
by Rodc
Thu Dec 01, 2016 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feeling like you've "made it"
Replies: 107
Views: 9630

Re: Feeling like you've "made it"

So I gather that this (never feeling like you've finally made it) is a semi-permanent condition associated with increasing responsibilities and a certain personality type common among Bogleheads, and I just need to find my own ways to keep things in perspective and relieve stress. It helps knowing ...
by Rodc
Thu Dec 01, 2016 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Weighing life trade-offs:commute vs school vs house vs time with family
Replies: 27
Views: 1983

Re: Weighing life trade-offs:commute vs school vs house vs time with family

I chose option 5: Keep current home. Fill out an inter district transfer from a bad school to a good school. My daughter now goes to an 8 school from a 3 school. I believe in taking care of yourself before your kids just as the airlines recommend for oxygen masks. If I am miserable at work due to a...
by Rodc
Thu Dec 01, 2016 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 149
Views: 10998

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

Right, so I assumed you meant the latter, P(R >= E[R]), as trivially P(R = E[R]) = 0. The point there was just that for a negatively skewed distribution you have larger P(R >= E[R]), which contradicts a straightforward reading of what you said about "a higher risk, higher expected return inves...
by Rodc
Thu Dec 01, 2016 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Weighing life trade-offs:commute vs school vs house vs time with family
Replies: 27
Views: 1983

Re: Weighing life trade-offs:commute vs school vs house vs time with family

Don't do what my sister and BIL did: pay so much for private school in the end they could not really pay for college. They had very good public schools and when they ran out of money in the end they had to move the kids to public. Was wrenching for the kids to (1) make new friends, (2) discover mom ...
by Rodc
Thu Dec 01, 2016 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feeling like you've "made it"
Replies: 107
Views: 9630

Re: Feeling like you've "made it"

This is what helps me. We have a small lake condo that is paid off, with low carrying costs (Insurance, property taxes, and HOA fees combined only run $6k a year). I love the fact that we "could" live there very cheaply if we had to. I'm always fascinating at different areas cost of livin...
by Rodc
Thu Dec 01, 2016 2:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feeling like you've "made it"
Replies: 107
Views: 9630

Re: Feeling like you've "made it"

...I have found that I have more financial anxiety now than I did when I first started my career and had $0 to my name. This is a big part of what bothers me. At 22, when I had much less, I didn't really worry. I was very confident. So why do I now see risk and potential failure all around me? Was ...
by Rodc
Thu Dec 01, 2016 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feeling like you've "made it"
Replies: 107
Views: 9630

Re: Feeling like you've "made it"

If you've dealt with this before, what helped you feel better? Winning the lottery? Actually retiring? Maybe nothing? :) I think it is a personality type. And not entirely unjustified as you still have a very long way to do, just imagine all the things that could go wrong! If it is cripplingly bad ...

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