Search found 332 matches

by Riprap
Sun May 01, 2016 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein — Asset Allocation and Time Horizon
Replies: 42
Views: 3522

Re: Classic Bernstein — Asset Allocation and Time Horizon

A) When you study the distrubution of returns looking at all possible timframes (since 1972, source data via the Simba spreadsheet), it's immediately evident that short-term returns are more uncertain than long-term returns . This part is not true. Well, it is true if you look at uncertainty of ann...
by Riprap
Sun May 01, 2016 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best High-Yield Online Account for Emergency Fund?
Replies: 15
Views: 1403

Re: Best High-Yield Online Account for Emergency Fund?

Jason Zweig's WSJ column this week recommends taking a look at Goldman Sachs' offerings. He says Goldman is offering 1.05% for a savings account. From the article: "Earlier this month, ​Goldman Sachs — ​the Wall Street giant that has long personified wealth and power ​– ​began offering savings ...
by Riprap
Sun May 01, 2016 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein — Asset Allocation and Time Horizon
Replies: 42
Views: 3522

Re: Classic Bernstein — Asset Allocation and Time Horizon

Bill Bernstein wrote:I largely agree with all the points, except that it's certainly still possible to totally destroy the economic and social fabric of a society without largely annihilating the population: See "Middle East."


Venezuela too.
by Riprap
Tue Apr 05, 2016 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent but expensive investing books
Replies: 33
Views: 2731

Re: Excellent but expensive investing books

Margin of Safey by Seth Klarman. New at Amazon for the low price of $1,599.95 or the bargain used price of only $1,650.00

I have heard it's very good, but can't vouch for it personally.

http://www.amazon.com/Margin-Safety-Ris ... 0887305105
by Riprap
Tue Mar 08, 2016 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What happens to Dividend Yields when the stock market tanks?
Replies: 5
Views: 902

Re: What happens to Dividend Yields when the stock market tanks?

1) If you go to Yahoo finance and enter the symbol of the fund you're interested in, you can then click historical prices and further sort to dividends. I have found this to be the easiest way to find dividend history. 2) There was a dip in the dividends of Vanguard 500 fund during the "great r...
by Riprap
Sun Mar 06, 2016 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Income tax preparation cost?
Replies: 22
Views: 1594

Re: Income tax preparation cost?

They don't want your business anymore. That's their way of telling you.
by Riprap
Wed Mar 02, 2016 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your target portfolio size?
Replies: 66
Views: 7012

Re: What is your target portfolio size?

2Birds1Stone wrote:I spent just under $20k last year all in. This included quite a few vacations, a bunch of triathlon related expenses, and eating out about once a week, hitting a happy hour once a week.


Dang... At $13k/yr my health insurance premium alone is 2/3 of your total annual expenses. Well done! :beer
by Riprap
Wed Mar 02, 2016 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't understand nutrition and exercise
Replies: 340
Views: 24579

Re: Don't understand nutrition and exercise

However, what I neither expected nor am happy about, was (and to a lesser degree still is), criticism of me ("You are too thin" or "You must be starving yourself" or "You must be sick"). Many overweight or obese folks have the gall to criticize my eating and exercise h...
by Riprap
Tue Mar 01, 2016 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax-exempt muni bond fund vs. individual muni bonds.....
Replies: 8
Views: 598

Re: Tax-exempt muni bond fund vs. individual muni bonds.....

...here we go again. :| I was surprised to see Suze Orman mentioned in the first paragraph of the Wiki. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Rolling_ladders_versus_bond_funds edited to add that I once believed individual bonds were superior to bond funds as well. I think it's a common belief.
by Riprap
Mon Feb 29, 2016 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Watching Oscars with kids
Replies: 34
Views: 2819

Re: Watching Oscars with kids

Purely anecdotal, but the kids from my childhood and the kids my children grew up with who were overly protected and shielded tended to have problems adjusting later in their lives when the parents had little or no control. (Shrug) Kids hear stuff. Kids see stuff. I might have been seven years old t...
by Riprap
Sun Feb 28, 2016 11:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Watching Oscars with kids
Replies: 34
Views: 2819

Re: Watching Oscars with kids

If your 11 year old attends public school, the language on the Oscars is likely mild by comparison. Sheltering kids that age seems kind of pointless to me provided you take the time to teach them right from wrong.
by Riprap
Sun Feb 28, 2016 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett's Annual Investor Letter is out
Replies: 87
Views: 11901

Re: Buffett's Annual Investor Letter is out

"If you invested in a very low-cost index fund where you don't put the money in at one time but average in over 10 years you'll do better than 90% of people who start investing at the same time" Thanks for the reference. I'm not sure I have the same interpretation as you. In my opinion, M...
by Riprap
Sun Feb 28, 2016 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett's Annual Investor Letter is out
Replies: 87
Views: 11901

Re: Buffett's Annual Investor Letter is out

Buffett suggests that investors average into stocks over a period of 10 years, so a lump sum having 10%/year being added to stocks. Which becomes fully loaded after 10 years, and over 30 years (long term) averages 85/15 stock/cash (bonds). I would be much obliged if you would provide a reference fo...
by Riprap
Wed Feb 24, 2016 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today's Market Open supposed be Brutal...........
Replies: 44
Views: 4109

Re: Today's Market Open supposed be Brutal...........

JCE66 wrote:Let's say I had some play money and I believed that the S&P would decline by more than 15% by 12/31/16 from today's valuation. What is the financial vehicle I use to make that bet?


LEAPS might work for you.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/leaps.asp
by Riprap
Wed Feb 24, 2016 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 60/40 Portfolio Mix is Dead in 2016"
Replies: 36
Views: 5592

Re: "The 60/40 Portfolio Mix is Dead in 2016"

To me it's notable that in one account I have where the number of shares have remained static since 2010, income from the SP500 fund has INCREASED 83% whereas the income from the intermediate tax exempt bond fund has actually DECREASED. Mind you, this is a static number of shares; the dividends and ...
by Riprap
Thu Feb 18, 2016 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I do not know how to back up my computer
Replies: 72
Views: 4641

Re: I do not know how to back up my computer

Suppose your operating system is fried (damaged on the computer hard disk), then what would you do? How would you restore working software such as MS Office, your internet browser, Explorer, and the works? Since this has actually happened to me, I was able to re-download working software (Quickbook...
by Riprap
Thu Feb 18, 2016 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I do not know how to back up my computer
Replies: 72
Views: 4641

Re: I do not know how to back up my computer

Simply copying files to a backup disk is not really a backup. One will want the capability to restore the files, too. That's why using Backup that came with the computer is easiest. Ok, I'm going to show how little I know too. What's the difference between a backup where you restore files and simpl...
by Riprap
Wed Feb 17, 2016 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Markapolous warns of 3 new ponzi schemes maybe brokerage?
Replies: 17
Views: 1688

Re: Harry Markapolous warns of 3 new ponzi schemes maybe brokerage?

Doubtful it is Vanguard. Just for kicks, I went to Morningstar's Deere & Co. ownership page. Vanguard is the second largest institutional owner with 5.95% of the company. First is Cascade Investment Llc (Bill Gates) with 9.14%. I'm guessing you would see something similar with just about every p...
by Riprap
Tue Feb 16, 2016 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Website You Follow
Replies: 16
Views: 2019

Re: Investing Website You Follow

Value Investing World generally has a link or two to something interesting.

http://www.valueinvestingworld.com/
by Riprap
Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Year-End Vanguard Dividends
Replies: 9
Views: 2541

Re: Year-End Vanguard Dividends

I just thought I would update this thread.

For the SP500 Index Fund (Admiral shares), the estimated dividend was $1.02 versus the $1.102 that will actually be paid, or about 8% more than estimated. In the past, I have found this underestimate to be generally true for all the equity mutual funds.
by Riprap
Sun Dec 13, 2015 9:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Christmas Time : How to not appear rude
Replies: 67
Views: 7637

Re: Christmas Time : How to not appear rude

I ask my kids to give me the gift of some of their time. They seem to like the idea too. It is usually just a simple, mindless activity together with a chance to chat. I like to call it making memories.
by Riprap
Fri Dec 11, 2015 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Year-End Vanguard Dividends
Replies: 9
Views: 2541

Re: Year-End Vanguard Dividends

I think this was just posted today:

Estimated year-end distributions for Vanguard funds and ETFs

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/estimated-yearend-distributions-122015

I would also add that in years past the estimate is generally lower than what is actually paid.
by Riprap
Sat Nov 14, 2015 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: we have a [feral or stray] cat - need help
Replies: 67
Views: 4789

Re: we have a cat - need help

wageoghe wrote:There are too many bad things that can happen to an outdoor cat. Like coyotes,


[OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek]
by Riprap
Tue Nov 10, 2015 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOGLEHEADS 14 VIDEOS
Replies: 23
Views: 4595

Re: BOGLEHEADS 14 VIDEOS

Will you post a video of Gus Sauter's presentation? Yes!!! It's in the works. The difficulty is trying to incorporate the slides in a split screen. Gus's presentation was fantastic and thought provoking. I would also say that the Q&A and discussion afterward was fantastic! Due to the length of ...
by Riprap
Fri Oct 30, 2015 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in cattle futures?
Replies: 51
Views: 3215

Re: Invest in cattle futures?

Don't do it. Margin calls come at the worst possible time.

Futures are for hedging. Period.
by Riprap
Mon Oct 26, 2015 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: More advice for BigLaw Survivor, please?
Replies: 111
Views: 9544

Re: More advice for BigLaw Survivor, please?

You can see why it's a sweet deal that I'm finding difficult to part with . . . Taxes aside, you seem open to the concept of "status quo ante", which is, by definition, a good starting point for discussion. From time-to-time, doing nothing is better than doing anything else. As Jack Bogle...
by Riprap
Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: More advice for BigLaw Survivor, please?
Replies: 111
Views: 9544

Re: More advice for BigLaw Survivor, please?

Interestingly, I just now went back to my checking account and calculated exactly what I spent in the last six months through today excluding federal and state income taxes but including absolutely everything else. The total: $108,267. In the past six months we've made virtually no effort to cut ou...
by Riprap
Thu Oct 22, 2015 9:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: More advice for BigLaw Survivor, please?
Replies: 111
Views: 9544

Re: More advice for BigLaw Survivor, please?

I was only a partner for the last 10 years of my 27 year career. I spent about 8 or 10 years in an intermediate "counsel" position before the promotion, where I earned a good salary but not at a partner level. As a partner, my share of the profits (my salary) ranged from 450k to 850k, ave...
by Riprap
Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is any of my capital at risk b/c of the Lawsuit
Replies: 22
Views: 3040

Re: Is any of my capital at risk b/c of the Lawsuit

Vanguard could raise its expense ratios to cover the liability, but then people could just move out of the funds. That's the scenario as a mostly taxable investor most worrisome to be. Massive selling to cover redemptions from fleeing mutual fund share holders triggering unnecessary capital gains. ...
by Riprap
Tue Oct 20, 2015 7:34 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Selected photos of my ride from Richmond, VA to Valley Forge, PA
Replies: 20
Views: 2447

Re: Selected photos of my ride from Richmond, VA to Valley Forge, PA

Thanks for sharing. Looking forward to your full journal of the trip. I think a historical biking tour on no particular schedule would be fantastic.
by Riprap
Sun Oct 18, 2015 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any books for how people become wealthy?
Replies: 67
Views: 7179

Re: Any books for how people become wealthy?

Deleted. My comment was rude and pointless.
by Riprap
Sun Oct 18, 2015 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees doing 50/50
Replies: 35
Views: 4820

Re: Retirees doing 50/50

Two important factors are needed:

1) What is your withdrawal rate?
2) Do you plan to leave a significant financial legacy?

From most of the literature I have read on the subject, you could do a lot worse than 50/50 for a wide range of withdrawal rates.
by Riprap
Sat Oct 17, 2015 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any books for how people become wealthy?
Replies: 67
Views: 7179

Re: Any books for how people become wealthy?

I highly recommend these books of historical figures. Many aspects of business and people skills are timeless. Autobiography of Benjamin Franklin is a good start http://www.amazon.com/Autobiography-Benjamin-Franklin-Thrift-Editions/dp/0486290735/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1445141018&...
by Riprap
Sat Oct 17, 2015 7:22 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Thank you Bogleheads Conference 2015!
Replies: 49
Views: 5006

Re: Thank you Bogleheads Conference 2015!

Any discussion of Danon's illegal tax shelter lawsuit at the conference?
by Riprap
Tue Oct 13, 2015 3:47 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Bogleheads Conference 2015 - Ride & Room Sharing
Replies: 14
Views: 1754

Re: Bogleheads Conference 2015 - Ride & Room Sharing

Raybo wrote:My bike comes apart and fits into a large suitcase that I check on the plane for $25.

I'll be happy to demonstrate how this works to anyone interested.


That that you have announced you're attending with your bike, fans of your journals will be expecting a full write-up with pics.
by Riprap
Wed Sep 23, 2015 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's "Deep Risk" - A rare opportunity for inflation protection?
Replies: 56
Views: 7904

Re: Bernstein's "Deep Risk" - A rare opportunity for inflation protection?

I am curious if others who read the book have reconsidered how they built their portfolio? I have and have largely discarded the idea of rebalance bands back to an arbitrary stock/bond allocation. I will also say that Ellis' "Winning The Loser's Game" made me think more about inflation as...
by Riprap
Mon Sep 21, 2015 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau on withdrawal rates
Replies: 76
Views: 6277

Re: Wade Pfau on withdrawal rates

Leesbro63 wrote:So what is the Wade Pfau SWR for Bogleheads?


Good question. I would like to know the answer to this too.
by Riprap
Fri Sep 18, 2015 8:54 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Where is the Munchkin Man?
Replies: 23
Views: 7127

Re: Where is the Munchkin Man?

The favorite post thread made me wonder about Muchkin Man. Any signs of him?
by Riprap
Fri Sep 18, 2015 8:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Other Blogs/Forums read by Bogleheads
Replies: 33
Views: 2949

Re: Other Blogs/Forums read by Bogleheads

Value Investing World - a blog dedicated to promoting the multidisciplinary approach to investing and development of – as Charlie Munger describes it – a latticework of mental models. http://www.valueinvestingworld.com/ Musing on Markets - Professor Aswath Damodaran at Stern School of Business NYU h...
by Riprap
Fri Sep 18, 2015 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talk me off the Ledge
Replies: 73
Views: 6511

Re: Talk me off the Ledge

He said the average retiree can do very well living off the dividends by following this plan. I'm really baffled by this statement. I doubt the average retiree can amass a large enough fortune to live off of a 2% dividend. With a $1M portfolio, that's only $20K/year. I agree that for the average re...
by Riprap
Mon Sep 14, 2015 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: People who are tapping their retirement savings for living expenses need bonds
Replies: 32
Views: 2826

Re: People who are tapping their retirement savings for living expenses need bonds

stocksforthelongrun wrote:Here is the schedule I calculated for different drawdown rates and the portfolio that maximizes the range of outcomes at the end:

0% 100/0
1% 100/0
2% 90/10
3% 75/25
4% 55/45
5% 30/70
6% you die


Care to share your methodology?
by Riprap
Mon Sep 07, 2015 6:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella Insurance
Replies: 52
Views: 5142

Re: Umbrella Insurance

There is also a reason why these policies are so cheap. Think about it. I have thought about it. Probably over thought it. :oops: Compared to some of the numbers being thrown around, my policy is not cheap. I am in the process of getting more quotes, but for me the marginal cost for the next millio...
by Riprap
Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella Insurance
Replies: 52
Views: 5142

Re: Umbrella Insurance

It has always made sense that the amount of umbrella you carry should depend (in part) upon your exposed net worth . For example, if your exposed net worth is $10 million, it makes no sense to me to limit your policy to $1 million because the $10 million dollar pot may be too sweet for the plaintif...
by Riprap
Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buy high dividend fund during a correction?
Replies: 15
Views: 2472

Re: Why buy high dividend fund during a correction?

David Jay wrote:So it may be good in theory, but: In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they're not.


Quote of the month. :beer

Should be your signature line. :D
by Riprap
Wed Aug 26, 2015 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Greaney reviews Vanguard Personal Advisor Services
Replies: 14
Views: 2515

Re: John Greaney reviews Vanguard Personal Advisor Services

"Fee & Commission Shaft Detector" spreadsheet. :beer
by Riprap
Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Graham's "margin of safety" for US stocks (1-29-16)
Replies: 61
Views: 10239

Re: Graham's "margin of safety" for US stocks (6-29-15)

Thanks for reviving this thread. I have always struggled with which bond yield to use in making the comparison as seems to be the case in this thread. Graham says, "In the ordinary common stock, bought for investment under normal conditions, the margin of safety lies in an expected earning powe...
by Riprap
Sun Aug 23, 2015 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2887

Re: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns

Sometimes I just push back away from my desk mesmerized at the at the intellect expended pondering the unknowable.

...and then I get right back to reading :beer
by Riprap
Sun Aug 23, 2015 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2887

Re: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns

I think I will always remember a quote from Gus Sauter from an Oct 2012 interview in Barrons, " A lot of people assume that market returns are driven by economic growth. But that's not really the case. A better predictor is valuation, or price-to-earnings ratios. Right now, the market is about ...
by Riprap
Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Creating a permanent legacy?
Replies: 53
Views: 6086

Re: Creating a permanent legacy?

That's why the GST exemption is limited. It was originally $1 million. It's now equal to the estate tax exclusion amount, currently $5,430,000. For most people, the exception swallows the rule, and is sufficient to cover their entire estate. They can leave their entire estate in trust, and if one g...
by Riprap
Sat Aug 22, 2015 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Creating a permanent legacy?
Replies: 53
Views: 6086

Re: Creating a permanent legacy?

... Let's assume the GST exemption was used when creating a dynasty trust (or an irrevocable GST trust in a state with rules that essentially make it a dynasty trust). Through good fortune, the trust has grown exponentially through let's say four generations. Let's also say that all the income the ...

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