Search found 1323 matches

by Raybo
Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Homeowners should consider flood insurance
Replies: 57
Views: 4194

Re: Homeowners should consider flood insurance

I live on a hill in San Francisco. I don't worry about too much rain. I worry about getting enough rain!
by Raybo
Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Journal of my recent ride through Southern Italy and Sicily
Replies: 12
Views: 990

Re: Journal of my recent ride through Southern Italy and Sicily

I suspect that you must have nerves of steel to ride on the streets near Palermo. The drivers there are crazy and do not obey any traffic laws as I am sure you discovered. The ride through Palermo was the last day of the trip. By then, I'd ridden all kinds of roads through all kinds of towns with a...
by Raybo
Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any one read the New York Review of Books?
Replies: 3
Views: 414

Any one read the New York Review of Books?

Like most people, I enjoy reading good books. I also enjoy reading about books. As such, I have a subscription to the New York Review of Books (NYRB). This is not the book review section of the Sunday NY Times. The NYRB is a dense tabloid-shaped magazine that has in depth reviews of books, both fict...
by Raybo
Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did you use Real Estate to build wealth?
Replies: 45
Views: 3246

Re: Did you use Real Estate to build wealth?

I did, sort of.

I owned a house outright and sold it in 2004 and moved in with my (now) wife. Normally, I wouldn't consider my primary residence an investment. But, in this case it was, as I sold it without having to replace it.

It doubled the size of my retirement assets!
by Raybo
Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Journal of my recent ride through Southern Italy and Sicily
Replies: 12
Views: 990

Re: Journal of my recent ride through Southern Italy and Sicily

Love this, Raybo. Thanks for sharing. Can you give us the link to your website? No. This isn't allowed under the site's policies. Since this is the BH forum, what was your budget per day for such a trip? I don't keep track of my spending on these trips nor am I concerned with how much I spend. That...
by Raybo
Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Journal of my recent ride through Southern Italy and Sicily
Replies: 12
Views: 990

Re: Journal of my recent ride through Southern Italy and Sicily

Raybo, Your photographs are always stunning What type of camera do you use? In the first part of this ride, I used an Olympus point and shoot camera with a large analog zoom feature. But, about halfway through the trip, I hit a pothole and the camera flew out of my handlebar bag and bounced along t...
by Raybo
Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Journal of my recent ride through Southern Italy and Sicily
Replies: 12
Views: 990

Re: Journal of my recent ride through Southern Italy and Sicily

I ride a Waterford Adventurecycle, a truly fabulous bicycle. It is made in the US and has couplers that allow me to disassemble it and put it in a suitcase for travel by air or train. Here is a photo of the set-up I use: https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-RtMvcN6vkA0/V2McL3G6YQI/AAAAAAAAQj4/ZecqiuS7...
by Raybo
Tue Aug 23, 2016 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Journal of my recent ride through Southern Italy and Sicily
Replies: 12
Views: 990

Journal of my recent ride through Southern Italy and Sicily

In April, 2016, I rode south from Naples, down the Amalfi Coast, all the way to the toe of Italy. I took the ferry to Messina and rode clockwise from there to Palermo. This fabulous trip took about 3 weeks and was full of stunning coastal views, well preserved Greek and Roman ruins, sweet smelling a...
by Raybo
Sun Aug 21, 2016 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD vs Short Term Inv Grade Bond
Replies: 12
Views: 1568

Re: CD vs Short Term Inv Grade Bond

A bond fund goes up and down. A CD doesn't. The yearly number includes gains from falling short-term rates. No reason to expect them going forward. Using the yield, they are essentially equal. Money from the fund (or the bank) are available immediately. A CD may not allow immediate withdrawal and wi...
by Raybo
Sat Aug 20, 2016 11:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend on coffee/tea?
Replies: 58
Views: 2436

Re: How much do you spend on coffee/tea?

I don't drink coffee or tea at home. Once a week, I have breakfast out and drink coffee. Cost is $4 a week.
by Raybo
Sat Aug 20, 2016 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: annuity with long term care benefits
Replies: 10
Views: 682

Re: annuity with long term care benefits

the advisor explained that the fixed deferred annuity is built on a whole life chassis. I love it when insurance salesman use car metaphors to explain something as complicated as this product. Either read the very fine print and be sure you understand how it works or ask detailed questions. My gues...
by Raybo
Sat Aug 20, 2016 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is your system for dealing with coins?
Replies: 104
Views: 5468

Re: What is your system for dealing with coins?

I live in earthquake country, which means keeping some cash readily available outside the house. I have been loathe to use paper money because it will eventually get wet and then moldy. My brother had a good idea, which was to wrap the coins and keep them outside as emergency money. I don't mind wra...
by Raybo
Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion
Replies: 108
Views: 6790

Re: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion

What about the risk that the insurance won't be around in 20 years? Annuities are a contract with a private firm that has no government backing. Twenty years is a long time and I would worry that just when I need the money, the company would not be around any more. For me, I'd rather wait until I am...
by Raybo
Wed Aug 10, 2016 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: True state of retirees and course of action
Replies: 29
Views: 3342

Re: True state of retirees and course of action

In my view, you are certainly in the upper echelon of 47 year-olds saving for retirement. No one can say with any certainty that your asset pile would last or not if you retired tomorrow. Likely, with kids still in the house and yet to go to college, you need to work a bit longer. But, you say you d...
by Raybo
Tue Aug 09, 2016 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talking about the Bogleheads approach with non-Bogleheads
Replies: 64
Views: 4462

Re: Talking about the Bogleheads approach with non-Bogleheads

The other day, a good friend tells me that he met a distant cousin who was touting convertible bonds. He said the guy works with (is worked by?) a company in Texas that charges him 1.5% AUM to buy convertible bonds, which this guy liked, for some reason. My friend, who I often talk investing with, n...
by Raybo
Sat Aug 06, 2016 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Solo Travel
Replies: 40
Views: 3562

Re: Solo Travel

I've taken many bike trips by myself. I am sociable and am happy to walk up to people I don't know and ask them questions and start talking. You don't say in your post if you are comfortable doing that or not. While I enjoy my own company and am tired after a long day on a bicycle, I find that after...
by Raybo
Sat Aug 06, 2016 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Question About Bonds and Risk
Replies: 10
Views: 768

Re: A Question About Bonds and Risk

Of all the risks associated with investing, it seems that the US defaulting on its debt is one of the lowest out there. But, in the past two decades, the government has been shutdown and not paying interest on the US debt has been pushed to the brink. Even with these current events, I think the risk...
by Raybo
Fri Aug 05, 2016 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Switching to Medicare -- cost vs health insurance
Replies: 22
Views: 1034

Re: Switching to Medicare -- cost vs health insurance

To the OP, since you currently have Kaiser, why don't you check with them as to their Medicare offerings? That was my first attempt. I ended up in a video presentation with bouncy music and pretty graphics but with no real cost information. I wanted to check here to see others experience before cal...
by Raybo
Fri Aug 05, 2016 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Switching to Medicare -- cost vs health insurance
Replies: 22
Views: 1034

Switching to Medicare -- cost vs health insurance

I've always paid my own health insurance. It is my largest single annual expense. Next year, I turn 65 and will be eligible for Medicare. In trying to plan my budget going forward, I was wondering what my medical insurance costs will be under Medicare? Can anyone who has made the switch give me some...
by Raybo
Thu Aug 04, 2016 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 8587

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

The number of assumptions about the future and the past inherent in trying to calculate a Sustainable Withdrawal Rate (SWR) are legion: The past contains all the likely futures (i.e. a future retirement will be like one of the past retirements) The drivers of past returns are invariant and will also...
by Raybo
Thu Aug 04, 2016 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Family Europe Trip
Replies: 31
Views: 1992

Re: Family Europe Trip

Why do you want to go to Europe? Is it to look at museums, historic sites, shop, be in nature, take a boat ride, ride a bicycle, eat croissants or strawberries and cream, or something else?

There is no way someone can advise you without knowing such things.
by Raybo
Wed Aug 03, 2016 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 29 years old too young to buy Long Term Care Insurance?
Replies: 28
Views: 2764

Re: 29 years old too young to buy Long Term Care Insurance?

I bought LTCi when I was in my 40s as I drove to work over a curvy, 4-lane highway that had fatal accidents on it frequently (Highway 17 between Santa Cruz and Silicon Valley). It seemed prudent, as there was a small chance I might need it as a result of a car accident and it would be something I co...
by Raybo
Mon Aug 01, 2016 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 332
Views: 35294

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Some conclusions after reading the McClung book and participating in this thread: If things go bad enough, no harvesting or withdrawal method will succeed in maintaining an acceptable lifestyle. There are various harvesting strategies to use. While annual rebalancing to a pre-set asset allocation is...
by Raybo
Fri Jul 22, 2016 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirees, how much did you leave on the table?
Replies: 202
Views: 14785

Re: Early retirees, how much did you leave on the table?

There is no way for me to calculate this. I was self-employed teaching computer programming in Silicon Valley. Today, no one makes any real money doing that. I retired in 2000, the year that Silicon Valley blew itself up. I probably left some money "on the table" but I also could have spen...
by Raybo
Fri Jul 22, 2016 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 332
Views: 35294

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Nobody would follow such recommendation, there is no way. You are assuming that it is easy to stick with a pre-set AA when the market is cratering. Or, that people will reduce their lifestyles when their VPW formulas call them to do so. Why is it so hard to assume that people can't stick with 100% ...
by Raybo
Thu Jul 21, 2016 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 332
Views: 35294

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I contacted Michel McClung about the tests Siamond ran and graphed above and the conclusions that were drawn. Here is his response: I believe the initial criteria for this type of analysis is to first establish a metric. Without a metric there is no practical way to compare MANY retirements across m...
by Raybo
Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 332
Views: 35294

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I also am wondering what impact starting with 60% stocks has on your analysis? McClung suggests that 50/50 is the best AA to start with. With $1MM portfolio, that means $500K in bonds, which at $50k/year would be 10 years, at least, before your AA got to 100% stocks. While there are starting years w...
by Raybo
Wed Jul 20, 2016 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 332
Views: 35294

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Siamond, Thanks for the demonstration. It appears that your conclusion is that harvesting according to a pre-set AA is no worse than using Prime Harvesting and that you don't like the idea of letting your AA fluctuate, even up to 100%. As a result, you seem satisfied to reject McClung's work and sti...
by Raybo
Mon Jul 18, 2016 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 332
Views: 35294

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

In Chapter 9, McClung attempts to factor in market valuation not by changing the initial stock value but by adjusting the initial withdrawal percentage.
by Raybo
Sun Jul 17, 2016 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 332
Views: 35294

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I am not saying it is a bad method just that I think that those thinking about using this method should a) be prepared to take the extra risk involved of varying the asset allocation and in particular the chances of periods of holding a high stock allocation in retirement. One may find they take on...
by Raybo
Sun Jul 17, 2016 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 332
Views: 35294

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Well actually most harvesting methods ignore lifespan in their methodology. There is no planned end point. Do you have any reference that supports this statement? Every thing I've read about retirement spending is based on a retirement of a certain length. Surely, the needs of a 40 year retirement ...
by Raybo
Sun Jul 17, 2016 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Appropriate tip amount for river rafting guides?
Replies: 50
Views: 3098

Re: Appropriate tip amount for river rafting guides?

I like to go on bicycle trips. It costs me money to go on my (solo) trips. If someone offered to pay me to take them along on a trip, if I was willing to do all the logistics, then it would be a win for me, assuming this person was someone I was willing to travel with (again, I only ever tour solo)....
by Raybo
Sun Jul 17, 2016 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 332
Views: 35294

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I didn't see Roth conversions mentioned in the Table of Contents. Decisions around conversions between retirement and claiming SS will be impactful for me. Is that discussed in the book? In a private communication with the author, I asked how Roth conversions might change things. Here is the author...
by Raybo
Sun Jul 17, 2016 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 332
Views: 35294

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

They both had the same portfolio value,mix, lifespan etc. They aren't the same age and don't have the same lifespan. As long as we are creating straw men, assume we know that they will both die on the same day. Then, person 1 has had to fund 1 more year of retirement. Why should any method treat th...
by Raybo
Sat Jul 16, 2016 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 332
Views: 35294

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

longinvest wrote:(Note that I have not read the book; I am merely commenting based on what I read in this thread).


This does make it hard to respond to your clarifications when I am trying to respond to what is in the book.
by Raybo
Sat Jul 16, 2016 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 332
Views: 35294

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Since you so dislike "methods with a memory," what is your suggestion for determining which harvesting method to use for your own retirement? I am a big fan of "percent of current portfolio balance" methods with rebalancing (e.g. rebalance while taking withdrawal, which leads to...
by Raybo
Sat Jul 16, 2016 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 332
Views: 35294

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Please let me know if I am wrong in my assessment of the "memory" property of McClung's method. It is easy to conflate research results with real-life results. McClung is attempting to use the data we have to test various withdrawal methods to see how they do when pitted against one anoth...
by Raybo
Wed Jul 13, 2016 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sound bite.
Replies: 14
Views: 989

Re: Sound bite.

The best way to get more growth in your portfolio is to not pay an advisor for this kind of advice!
by Raybo
Wed Jul 06, 2016 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 332
Views: 35294

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Isn't this approach at odds with the Firecalc method of simply withdrawing an amount that is apportioned exactly at the asset allocation of your total portfolio? That is my understanding of how Firecalc estimates your portfolio survival chance. Firecalc does not require you to do market forecasting...
by Raybo
Tue Jul 05, 2016 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 332
Views: 35294

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I have a practical question. I retired in 2000 (at 48). Since that time, I've sold a house and lived off my portfolio. I have always taken less than 4% from my pile each year. Up to now, I've used rebalancing to a set AA to harvest the money I need yearly. After reading some of McClung's book (I bou...
by Raybo
Tue Jul 05, 2016 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Strategic Asset Allocation Flawed?
Replies: 13
Views: 840

Re: Is Strategic Asset Allocation Flawed?

Your opinion on how risky something is is just that, your opinion. Certainly, something that costs $X is cheaper that something that costs $2X, but stock and bond value change every day so how are you to monitor what is "risky" or "cheap?" The goal isn't to be constantly moving o...
by Raybo
Sun Jul 03, 2016 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do you spend your money on???
Replies: 149
Views: 13423

Re: What do you spend your money on???

I spend more money on my bicycle than I do on my car.

I spend money on motels on bicycle tours so that I don't have to push 10+ pounds of camping gear up every hill.

Wool biking jerseys.

Hosting fees for my website.
by Raybo
Sun Jul 03, 2016 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Withdrawal strategies for non-rebalancers?
Replies: 20
Views: 1529

Re: Withdrawal strategies for non-rebalancers?

McClung's book Living Off Your Money has a chapter that compares various "harvesting" strategies. Several are ones that rebalance in various ways not based on holding the asset allocation steady. In fact, several of the ones he describes and tests out-perform rebalancing to a set AA. The b...
by Raybo
Thu Jun 16, 2016 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Making an app for Bogleheads, need advice
Replies: 34
Views: 3243

Re: Making an app for Bogleheads, need advice

Forget who is doing better or worse. Who cares? What I would want (I have it on my own computer) is an app showing me my current asset allocation by stocks vs bonds vs cash and then each larger category broken down into type of stock (US Large Cap, US Small Cap, Int'l Large Cap, Int'L Small Cap, etc...
by Raybo
Fri Jun 10, 2016 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betting Against Brexit- What's the Trade?
Replies: 11
Views: 1234

Re: Betting Against Brexit- What's the Trade?

Do you have any English friends that can get a bet down for you. You might do as well as the people who bet on Leicester to the Premier League!
by Raybo
Fri Jun 10, 2016 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betting Against Brexit- What's the Trade?
Replies: 11
Views: 1234

Re: Betting Against Brexit- What's the Trade?

Let me start by saying I have no knowledge of the UK Stock Market. But, could you simply buy options on the FTSE 100? It would make sense that the entire UK stock market would jump if the vote is a solid NO. Also, with options you get much more leverage than with individual stocks. While you say you...
by Raybo
Fri Jun 10, 2016 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone familiar with Crowsnest Highway in British Columbia?
Replies: 6
Views: 581

Re: Anyone familiar with Crowsnest Highway in British Columbia?

Can Raybo go up hill faster than an RV towing a car?! Those are about the slowest thing I've been trapped behind on the Oregon coast and TCH in Western Ontario. Raybo: Suggest Chuckanut Drive in Bellingham as a "warm up" for your trip. Very scenic. Starts around the Fairhaven part of Bell...
by Raybo
Fri Jun 10, 2016 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Maui and what other island?
Replies: 26
Views: 1538

Re: Maui and what other island?

Is there some reason you don't want to spend all your time on Maui? A week on Maui is not all that much different than a week on Kauai. What are you looking to do? Hawaii is a newer (fewer beaches), larger island than Maui with fewer towns spread further apart. Hawaii has the active volcano but it i...
by Raybo
Thu Jun 09, 2016 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My current bicycle tour in Italy
Replies: 39
Views: 4306

Re: My current bicycle tour in Italy

Miriam2, Thank you for the kind words. My main view on photography is "I have to take a lot of bad photos to get some good ones." Thus, the 1700! But, it helps to be in pretty places where stopping to take a look or a photo is as easy squeezing a brake handle and putting my foot on the gro...
by Raybo
Thu Jun 09, 2016 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone familiar with Crowsnest Highway in British Columbia?
Replies: 6
Views: 581

Anyone familiar with Crowsnest Highway in British Columbia?

I am thinking about biking from Bellingham, WA to Missoula, MT in August (see this thread for related details). The route I am considering runs from Bellingham, WA up into Canada and then along the Crowsnest Highway (Highway 3) from Hope through Manning Park and then on to Osoyoos, before crossing b...

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