Search found 1300 matches

by Raybo
Fri Jul 22, 2016 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early retirees, how much did you leave on the table?
Replies: 180
Views: 11393

Re: Early retirees, how much did you leave on the table?

There is no way for me to calculate this. I was self-employed teaching computer programming in Silicon Valley. Today, no one makes any real money doing that. I retired in 2000, the year that Silicon Valley blew itself up. I probably left some money "on the table" but I also could have spen...
by Raybo
Fri Jul 22, 2016 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 28151

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Nobody would follow such recommendation, there is no way. You are assuming that it is easy to stick with a pre-set AA when the market is cratering. Or, that people will reduce their lifestyles when their VPW formulas call them to do so. Why is it so hard to assume that people can't stick with 100% ...
by Raybo
Thu Jul 21, 2016 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 28151

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I contacted Michel McClung about the tests Siamond ran and graphed above and the conclusions that were drawn. Here is his response: I believe the initial criteria for this type of analysis is to first establish a metric. Without a metric there is no practical way to compare MANY retirements across m...
by Raybo
Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 28151

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I also am wondering what impact starting with 60% stocks has on your analysis? McClung suggests that 50/50 is the best AA to start with. With $1MM portfolio, that means $500K in bonds, which at $50k/year would be 10 years, at least, before your AA got to 100% stocks. While there are starting years w...
by Raybo
Wed Jul 20, 2016 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 28151

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Siamond, Thanks for the demonstration. It appears that your conclusion is that harvesting according to a pre-set AA is no worse than using Prime Harvesting and that you don't like the idea of letting your AA fluctuate, even up to 100%. As a result, you seem satisfied to reject McClung's work and sti...
by Raybo
Mon Jul 18, 2016 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 28151

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

In Chapter 9, McClung attempts to factor in market valuation not by changing the initial stock value but by adjusting the initial withdrawal percentage.
by Raybo
Sun Jul 17, 2016 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 28151

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I am not saying it is a bad method just that I think that those thinking about using this method should a) be prepared to take the extra risk involved of varying the asset allocation and in particular the chances of periods of holding a high stock allocation in retirement. One may find they take on...
by Raybo
Sun Jul 17, 2016 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 28151

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Well actually most harvesting methods ignore lifespan in their methodology. There is no planned end point. Do you have any reference that supports this statement? Every thing I've read about retirement spending is based on a retirement of a certain length. Surely, the needs of a 40 year retirement ...
by Raybo
Sun Jul 17, 2016 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Appropriate tip amount for river rafting guides?
Replies: 50
Views: 3013

Re: Appropriate tip amount for river rafting guides?

I like to go on bicycle trips. It costs me money to go on my (solo) trips. If someone offered to pay me to take them along on a trip, if I was willing to do all the logistics, then it would be a win for me, assuming this person was someone I was willing to travel with (again, I only ever tour solo)....
by Raybo
Sun Jul 17, 2016 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 28151

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I didn't see Roth conversions mentioned in the Table of Contents. Decisions around conversions between retirement and claiming SS will be impactful for me. Is that discussed in the book? In a private communication with the author, I asked how Roth conversions might change things. Here is the author...
by Raybo
Sun Jul 17, 2016 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 28151

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

They both had the same portfolio value,mix, lifespan etc. They aren't the same age and don't have the same lifespan. As long as we are creating straw men, assume we know that they will both die on the same day. Then, person 1 has had to fund 1 more year of retirement. Why should any method treat th...
by Raybo
Sat Jul 16, 2016 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 28151

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

longinvest wrote:(Note that I have not read the book; I am merely commenting based on what I read in this thread).


This does make it hard to respond to your clarifications when I am trying to respond to what is in the book.
by Raybo
Sat Jul 16, 2016 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 28151

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Since you so dislike "methods with a memory," what is your suggestion for determining which harvesting method to use for your own retirement? I am a big fan of "percent of current portfolio balance" methods with rebalancing (e.g. rebalance while taking withdrawal, which leads to...
by Raybo
Sat Jul 16, 2016 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 28151

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Please let me know if I am wrong in my assessment of the "memory" property of McClung's method. It is easy to conflate research results with real-life results. McClung is attempting to use the data we have to test various withdrawal methods to see how they do when pitted against one anoth...
by Raybo
Wed Jul 13, 2016 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sound bite.
Replies: 13
Views: 807

Re: Sound bite.

The best way to get more growth in your portfolio is to not pay an advisor for this kind of advice!
by Raybo
Wed Jul 06, 2016 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 28151

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Isn't this approach at odds with the Firecalc method of simply withdrawing an amount that is apportioned exactly at the asset allocation of your total portfolio? That is my understanding of how Firecalc estimates your portfolio survival chance. Firecalc does not require you to do market forecasting...
by Raybo
Tue Jul 05, 2016 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 28151

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I have a practical question. I retired in 2000 (at 48). Since that time, I've sold a house and lived off my portfolio. I have always taken less than 4% from my pile each year. Up to now, I've used rebalancing to a set AA to harvest the money I need yearly. After reading some of McClung's book (I bou...
by Raybo
Tue Jul 05, 2016 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Strategic Asset Allocation Flawed?
Replies: 13
Views: 805

Re: Is Strategic Asset Allocation Flawed?

Your opinion on how risky something is is just that, your opinion. Certainly, something that costs $X is cheaper that something that costs $2X, but stock and bond value change every day so how are you to monitor what is "risky" or "cheap?" The goal isn't to be constantly moving o...
by Raybo
Sun Jul 03, 2016 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do you spend your money on???
Replies: 149
Views: 13094

Re: What do you spend your money on???

I spend more money on my bicycle than I do on my car.

I spend money on motels on bicycle tours so that I don't have to push 10+ pounds of camping gear up every hill.

Wool biking jerseys.

Hosting fees for my website.
by Raybo
Sun Jul 03, 2016 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Withdrawal strategies for non-rebalancers?
Replies: 20
Views: 1494

Re: Withdrawal strategies for non-rebalancers?

McClung's book Living Off Your Money has a chapter that compares various "harvesting" strategies. Several are ones that rebalance in various ways not based on holding the asset allocation steady. In fact, several of the ones he describes and tests out-perform rebalancing to a set AA. The b...
by Raybo
Thu Jun 16, 2016 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Making an app for Bogleheads, need advice
Replies: 34
Views: 3158

Re: Making an app for Bogleheads, need advice

Forget who is doing better or worse. Who cares? What I would want (I have it on my own computer) is an app showing me my current asset allocation by stocks vs bonds vs cash and then each larger category broken down into type of stock (US Large Cap, US Small Cap, Int'l Large Cap, Int'L Small Cap, etc...
by Raybo
Fri Jun 10, 2016 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betting Against Brexit- What's the Trade?
Replies: 11
Views: 1195

Re: Betting Against Brexit- What's the Trade?

Do you have any English friends that can get a bet down for you. You might do as well as the people who bet on Leicester to the Premier League!
by Raybo
Fri Jun 10, 2016 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betting Against Brexit- What's the Trade?
Replies: 11
Views: 1195

Re: Betting Against Brexit- What's the Trade?

Let me start by saying I have no knowledge of the UK Stock Market. But, could you simply buy options on the FTSE 100? It would make sense that the entire UK stock market would jump if the vote is a solid NO. Also, with options you get much more leverage than with individual stocks. While you say you...
by Raybo
Fri Jun 10, 2016 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone familiar with Crowsnest Highway in British Columbia?
Replies: 6
Views: 563

Re: Anyone familiar with Crowsnest Highway in British Columbia?

Can Raybo go up hill faster than an RV towing a car?! Those are about the slowest thing I've been trapped behind on the Oregon coast and TCH in Western Ontario. Raybo: Suggest Chuckanut Drive in Bellingham as a "warm up" for your trip. Very scenic. Starts around the Fairhaven part of Bell...
by Raybo
Fri Jun 10, 2016 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Maui and what other island?
Replies: 26
Views: 1479

Re: Maui and what other island?

Is there some reason you don't want to spend all your time on Maui? A week on Maui is not all that much different than a week on Kauai. What are you looking to do? Hawaii is a newer (fewer beaches), larger island than Maui with fewer towns spread further apart. Hawaii has the active volcano but it i...
by Raybo
Thu Jun 09, 2016 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My current bicycle tour in Italy
Replies: 39
Views: 4232

Re: My current bicycle tour in Italy

Miriam2, Thank you for the kind words. My main view on photography is "I have to take a lot of bad photos to get some good ones." Thus, the 1700! But, it helps to be in pretty places where stopping to take a look or a photo is as easy squeezing a brake handle and putting my foot on the gro...
by Raybo
Thu Jun 09, 2016 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone familiar with Crowsnest Highway in British Columbia?
Replies: 6
Views: 563

Anyone familiar with Crowsnest Highway in British Columbia?

I am thinking about biking from Bellingham, WA to Missoula, MT in August (see this thread for related details). The route I am considering runs from Bellingham, WA up into Canada and then along the Crowsnest Highway (Highway 3) from Hope through Manning Park and then on to Osoyoos, before crossing b...
by Raybo
Thu Jun 09, 2016 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suggestions for visiting Vancouver and Vancouver Island
Replies: 8
Views: 408

Suggestions for visiting Vancouver and Vancouver Island

I have friends in Bellingham, WA who I'll be visiting in late July for up to 2 weeks. Places my wife and I have never been are Vancouver Island and Vancouver City (yes, I know they aren't the same place). I'd be interested in any suggestions people might have about places to see, hike, experience, o...
by Raybo
Wed Jun 08, 2016 7:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First experience unlocking my credit
Replies: 5
Views: 572

First experience unlocking my credit

I locked my credit at all 3 credit agencies in 2011. In that time, I haven't opened a new account, bought an on-line CD or applied for a credit card. Today, I discovered that I couldn't be added to my wife's Schwab account, whose debit card we use for traveling, until I unlocked my credit. I dug out...
by Raybo
Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My current bicycle tour in Italy
Replies: 39
Views: 4232

Re: My current bicycle tour in Italy

I am now home from this trip. I took over 1700 photos. I have selected 73 of those pictures on my website (too many to post here), for anyone interested.
by Raybo
Tue Jun 07, 2016 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much Capital Gains to realize?
Replies: 7
Views: 427

Re: How much Capital Gains to realize?

This is the ol' Tax-Gain-Harvesting story. What is going on with any Roth conversion that you might be doing? I know for myself, I could sell quite a lot and not realize a net gain. However, I am saving some losses for the future because gains will be tax-free in the future anyways. I would rather ...
by Raybo
Tue Jun 07, 2016 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much Capital Gains to realize?
Replies: 7
Views: 427

Re: How much Capital Gains to realize?

Do you have any assets in traditional retirement plans? If yes, consider a Roth conversion at least as big to consume your 0% tax bracket provided by deductions and exemptions. Assuming you and your spouse take the standard deduction ($12,600 for MFJ) and 2 exemptions ($4050 each), that would allow...
by Raybo
Tue Jun 07, 2016 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much Capital Gains to realize?
Replies: 7
Views: 427

How much Capital Gains to realize?

As a result of TLHing (Tax Loss Harvesting) in 2008/9 and redeeming the lowest capital gains stocks in my taxable account, I am left with only TSM shares with 50% capital gains. Neither my wife or I have any earned income and need about $60K/year to support our chosen lifestyle. Given our low income...
by Raybo
Sun Jun 05, 2016 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you change your AA over time?
Replies: 39
Views: 3143

Re: How do you change your AA over time?

I was 60/40 until 2008. When the market dropped, I kept rebalancing/tax loss harvesting as stocks fell. At the bottom of the market, I found that I no longer had the stomach to keep doing this. At the point where I stopped rebalancing, I was 40/60 (Stocks/Bonds) and it is there I've stayed.
by Raybo
Thu Jun 02, 2016 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you pay 6x face value to see Hamilton on Broadway?
Replies: 139
Views: 8473

Re: Would you pay 6x face value to see Hamilton on Broadway?

Similar story, different show. In SF, The Book of Mormon was showing with very expensive seats. My wife and I wanted to go but not at the listed prices. In London to visit family and got tickets for The Book of Mormon in London for about $65 a seat. Who would have thought that seeing a show in Londo...
by Raybo
Sun May 29, 2016 1:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirement and opportunity cost, by Harry Sit
Replies: 144
Views: 12138

Re: Early retirement and opportunity cost, by Harry Sit

Clearly, the point of the article is to show that by retiring early, someone is losing money to get more time and that working longer is doing just the opposite. But, I see this as a fallacious comparison. Time and money are fundamentally different things. There is a quality to time that money doesn...
by Raybo
Thu May 26, 2016 3:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The problem with predictions: Will 2000-Era Retirees Experience the Worst Retirement Outcomes in U.S. History?
Replies: 33
Views: 3531

Re: The problem with predictions: Will 2000-Era Retirees Experience the Worst Retirement Outcomes in U.S. History?

I think Pfau would say that someone who had massive income (assuming the proceeds of your house were fairly large) 3-years into retirement and is able to subsist on a sub-4% withdrawal rate is pretty far from being relevant for almost any paper on withdrawal rates and has almost nothing to worry ab...
by Raybo
Thu May 26, 2016 2:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The problem with predictions: Will 2000-Era Retirees Experience the Worst Retirement Outcomes in U.S. History?
Replies: 33
Views: 3531

Re: The problem with predictions: Will 2000-Era Retirees Experience the Worst Retirement Outcomes in U.S. History?

I retired in 2000, though without major investment in dot.com crashers. In addition, I sold a house I owned in 2003 and moved in with my, now, wife so was able to bank the entire proceeds. In 2008, I rebalanced into the falling market and now have 50% capital gains. I have a bit more than 20% less t...
by Raybo
Mon May 23, 2016 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ineffective/Dangerous Sunscreens
Replies: 34
Views: 2699

Re: Ineffective/Dangerous Sunscreens

The Environmental Working Group (EWG) reviews sunscreens for harmful additives and SPF. Here is the 2015 report: http://www.ewg.org/2015sunscreen/
by Raybo
Mon May 23, 2016 7:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice on Wife's Credit
Replies: 21
Views: 2231

Re: Advice on Wife's Credit

The way I interpret the OP, the wife has not been super responsible in paying obligations. Well the way I interpret your post is judgemental, without merit, and borderline insulting. You should probably take a little more caution before jumping to such sweeping conclusions about people. Whether the...
by Raybo
Sun May 22, 2016 2:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon has no head to head competitors?
Replies: 71
Views: 4637

Re: Amazon has no head to head competitors?

I only buy things from Amazon if I can't find it locally. While I don't like shopping much myself, I do use websites and phone calls to determine if a local store has what I want. I want my local retailers to survive more than I want to save a few bucks on something.
by Raybo
Sun May 22, 2016 2:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: surface street or freeway commute?
Replies: 32
Views: 1761

Re: surface street or freeway commute?

You don't mention buses or carpooling. Are neither an option? Not driving would make for good paper grading time!
by Raybo
Wed May 11, 2016 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 38 Want to retire in 8 years
Replies: 9
Views: 3565

Re: 38 Want to retire in 8 years

Accessing deferred accounts before 59.5 is not always in the amounts you need/want. Better to have after-tax money to spend until you reach 59.5 (and after). At 46, all your friends will still be working. It will be hard to find other people for activities during the day and week. What will you do w...
by Raybo
Mon May 02, 2016 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do Bogleheads TRAVEL?
Replies: 81
Views: 8740

Re: How to Bogleheads TRAVEL?

Go by bicycle.
by Raybo
Thu Apr 21, 2016 5:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My current bicycle tour in Italy
Replies: 39
Views: 4232

Re: My current bicycle tour in Italy

The second email update I sent to family and friends: From Praia a Mare, where I wrote my last email, I rode inland, climbing up through the scenic and very green National Reserve of the River Lao and up and over 2 passes (over 5 hours of steady climbing) to the valley on the other side. I was exhil...
by Raybo
Sat Apr 16, 2016 12:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My current bicycle tour in Italy
Replies: 39
Views: 4232

Re: My current bicycle tour in Italy

How have the Italian drivers reacted to a touring cyclist? For the most part, they are courteous, even will wait for a safe spot to pass. But, I can both see and hear them so I usually stop, pull over and let then pass. There are lots of bike riders on the roads so cars are accustomed to seeing the...
by Raybo
Sat Apr 16, 2016 12:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My current bicycle tour in Italy
Replies: 39
Views: 4232

Re: My current bicycle tour in Italy

moshe wrote:Are you traveling alone?
~Moshe


Always
by Raybo
Fri Apr 15, 2016 11:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My current bicycle tour in Italy
Replies: 39
Views: 4232

Re: My current bicycle tour in Italy

Do you have a elevation profile map? I would be interested to know if it is for my biking level. You can see my trip itinerary and links to my route maps on this touring plan I created. Each of the maps has an elevation profile. Here is the map of my current stretch of route: http://mycycletour.com...
by Raybo
Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My current bicycle tour in Italy
Replies: 39
Views: 4232

Re: My current bicycle tour in Italy

Yesterday, I rode from Palinuro south to Praia a Marr, a seaside town that is just starting to prepare for vacation time by building bars and discos on the beach.

The ride down, especially the coast road south of Sapri was some of the best coastline I've ever seen.
by Raybo
Fri Apr 15, 2016 12:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My current bicycle tour in Italy
Replies: 39
Views: 4232

Re: My current bicycle tour in Italy

Thanks for the update and photos! If I may ask: You mentioned "couchsurfing" - are your hosts people you knew before the trip, or did you arrange this through a website? Couchsurfing is a free hospitality site on the Internet (http://www.couchsurfing.org). Once you sign up, you can ask ot...

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