Search found 1333 matches

by Raybo
Fri Sep 23, 2016 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Trouble with "Buy and Hold"
Replies: 110
Views: 7827

Re: The Trouble with "Buy and Hold"

Here are the return dollars from Table 6: Faber TAA S&P500 Starting Equity $100,000.00 $100,000.00 Ending Equity $6,886,468.86 $6,640,526.07 So, a difference of $240,000 over 44 years has got you all excited? Maybe we should investigate the Will Rogers strategy: Don't gamble; take all your savin...
by Raybo
Thu Sep 22, 2016 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Email from Financial Advisor
Replies: 22
Views: 3434

Re: Email from Financial Advisor

Looking at a summary of the Washington Mutual fund, it is clear that it is not trying to mimic the S&P500. It's largest holding is Microsoft, not Apple, which doesn't appear in its top 10 holdings. It also can hold up to 10% of its assets in foreign funds. As is always the case with these kinds ...
by Raybo
Thu Sep 08, 2016 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60 Year SWR Model
Replies: 15
Views: 1907

Re: 60 Year SWR Model

This analysis only works if you only buy US equity, as your numbers come from only US equity sources. What happens if your P1 falls short? Do you take it from P2? If so, there are lots of problems you are ignoring. Also, what about taxes and RMDs? You are predicting average stock returns 60 years in...
by Raybo
Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling to Italy and renting a vehicle -- auto insurance?
Replies: 21
Views: 1726

Re: Traveling to Italy and renting a vehicle -- auto insurance?

I rented a car in Italy many years ago and buying rental insurance was required. I don't know if it still is, but you should check what it covers.
by Raybo
Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite Vegan Products
Replies: 57
Views: 3214

Re: Favorite Vegan Products

My current favorite is Field Roast hot dogs. They make several soy-based ones. I prefer the one made from Seiten (wheat gluten).

At my CostCo (SF), they sell a tofu burger from Hodo that is fabulous.
by Raybo
Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS
Replies: 142
Views: 12097

Re: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS

I'm in the "no mortgage at retirement" camp. It seems to me it is better to have $500K in an IRA than to have $1MM in an IRA and a $500K mortgage. One issue is larger RMDs and, therefore, taxes. While the mortgage deduction gets you something, you still have to have enough deductions to ta...
by Raybo
Mon Aug 29, 2016 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 348
Views: 38610

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Prime harvesting looks very interesting. But, when you have most of your bonds in the tax deferred accounts and you're not 59.5, it's not viable is it? Selling stocks in taxable and then selling bonds in an IRA and buying the stocks you just sold is a way to sell bonds in your IRA. However, buying ...
by Raybo
Mon Aug 29, 2016 3:42 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: I think I found Rick Ferri
Replies: 53
Views: 9716

Re: I think I found Rick Ferri

I wish him the best. Though, I can't help feeling it would be better if he and Daria were riding a tandem bicycle!
by Raybo
Sat Aug 27, 2016 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Birding in Big Sur
Replies: 7
Views: 363

Re: Birding in Big Sur

I second the suggestion for Elkhorn Slough. I'd suggest renting a kayak and paddling in the slough. You could stay in Monterey, Watsonville, Santa Cruz or between any of them.

There is a fire in Big Sur. Also, when I have hiked there, the birding wasn't very good. Think trees but not much water.
by Raybo
Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Homeowners should consider flood insurance
Replies: 78
Views: 6592

Re: Homeowners should consider flood insurance

I live on a hill in San Francisco. I don't worry about too much rain. I worry about getting enough rain! When the rain does hit, though, I bet the streams of water are impressive. Cold hard ground doesn't absorb water, so it has to go somewhere. I must say that the river of water cascading down our...
by Raybo
Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Homeowners should consider flood insurance
Replies: 78
Views: 6592

Re: Homeowners should consider flood insurance

I live on a hill in San Francisco. I don't worry about too much rain. I worry about getting enough rain!
by Raybo
Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Journal of my recent ride through Southern Italy and Sicily
Replies: 12
Views: 1138

Re: Journal of my recent ride through Southern Italy and Sicily

I suspect that you must have nerves of steel to ride on the streets near Palermo. The drivers there are crazy and do not obey any traffic laws as I am sure you discovered. The ride through Palermo was the last day of the trip. By then, I'd ridden all kinds of roads through all kinds of towns with a...
by Raybo
Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any one read the New York Review of Books?
Replies: 3
Views: 477

Any one read the New York Review of Books?

Like most people, I enjoy reading good books. I also enjoy reading about books. As such, I have a subscription to the New York Review of Books (NYRB). This is not the book review section of the Sunday NY Times. The NYRB is a dense tabloid-shaped magazine that has in depth reviews of books, both fict...
by Raybo
Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did you use Real Estate to build wealth?
Replies: 45
Views: 3601

Re: Did you use Real Estate to build wealth?

I did, sort of.

I owned a house outright and sold it in 2004 and moved in with my (now) wife. Normally, I wouldn't consider my primary residence an investment. But, in this case it was, as I sold it without having to replace it.

It doubled the size of my retirement assets!
by Raybo
Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Journal of my recent ride through Southern Italy and Sicily
Replies: 12
Views: 1138

Re: Journal of my recent ride through Southern Italy and Sicily

Love this, Raybo. Thanks for sharing. Can you give us the link to your website? No. This isn't allowed under the site's policies. Since this is the BH forum, what was your budget per day for such a trip? I don't keep track of my spending on these trips nor am I concerned with how much I spend. That...
by Raybo
Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Journal of my recent ride through Southern Italy and Sicily
Replies: 12
Views: 1138

Re: Journal of my recent ride through Southern Italy and Sicily

Raybo, Your photographs are always stunning What type of camera do you use? In the first part of this ride, I used an Olympus point and shoot camera with a large analog zoom feature. But, about halfway through the trip, I hit a pothole and the camera flew out of my handlebar bag and bounced along t...
by Raybo
Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Journal of my recent ride through Southern Italy and Sicily
Replies: 12
Views: 1138

Re: Journal of my recent ride through Southern Italy and Sicily

I ride a Waterford Adventurecycle, a truly fabulous bicycle. It is made in the US and has couplers that allow me to disassemble it and put it in a suitcase for travel by air or train. Here is a photo of the set-up I use: https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-RtMvcN6vkA0/V2McL3G6YQI/AAAAAAAAQj4/ZecqiuS7...
by Raybo
Tue Aug 23, 2016 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Journal of my recent ride through Southern Italy and Sicily
Replies: 12
Views: 1138

Journal of my recent ride through Southern Italy and Sicily

In April, 2016, I rode south from Naples, down the Amalfi Coast, all the way to the toe of Italy. I took the ferry to Messina and rode clockwise from there to Palermo. This fabulous trip took about 3 weeks and was full of stunning coastal views, well preserved Greek and Roman ruins, sweet smelling a...
by Raybo
Sun Aug 21, 2016 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD vs Short Term Inv Grade Bond
Replies: 12
Views: 1662

Re: CD vs Short Term Inv Grade Bond

A bond fund goes up and down. A CD doesn't. The yearly number includes gains from falling short-term rates. No reason to expect them going forward. Using the yield, they are essentially equal. Money from the fund (or the bank) are available immediately. A CD may not allow immediate withdrawal and wi...
by Raybo
Sat Aug 20, 2016 11:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend on coffee/tea?
Replies: 58
Views: 2661

Re: How much do you spend on coffee/tea?

I don't drink coffee or tea at home. Once a week, I have breakfast out and drink coffee. Cost is $4 a week.
by Raybo
Sat Aug 20, 2016 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: annuity with long term care benefits
Replies: 10
Views: 739

Re: annuity with long term care benefits

the advisor explained that the fixed deferred annuity is built on a whole life chassis. I love it when insurance salesman use car metaphors to explain something as complicated as this product. Either read the very fine print and be sure you understand how it works or ask detailed questions. My gues...
by Raybo
Sat Aug 20, 2016 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is your system for dealing with coins?
Replies: 123
Views: 7719

Re: What is your system for dealing with coins?

I live in earthquake country, which means keeping some cash readily available outside the house. I have been loathe to use paper money because it will eventually get wet and then moldy. My brother had a good idea, which was to wrap the coins and keep them outside as emergency money. I don't mind wra...
by Raybo
Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion
Replies: 108
Views: 7181

Re: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion

What about the risk that the insurance won't be around in 20 years? Annuities are a contract with a private firm that has no government backing. Twenty years is a long time and I would worry that just when I need the money, the company would not be around any more. For me, I'd rather wait until I am...
by Raybo
Wed Aug 10, 2016 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: True state of retirees and course of action
Replies: 29
Views: 3418

Re: True state of retirees and course of action

In my view, you are certainly in the upper echelon of 47 year-olds saving for retirement. No one can say with any certainty that your asset pile would last or not if you retired tomorrow. Likely, with kids still in the house and yet to go to college, you need to work a bit longer. But, you say you d...
by Raybo
Tue Aug 09, 2016 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talking about the Bogleheads approach with non-Bogleheads
Replies: 64
Views: 4716

Re: Talking about the Bogleheads approach with non-Bogleheads

The other day, a good friend tells me that he met a distant cousin who was touting convertible bonds. He said the guy works with (is worked by?) a company in Texas that charges him 1.5% AUM to buy convertible bonds, which this guy liked, for some reason. My friend, who I often talk investing with, n...
by Raybo
Sat Aug 06, 2016 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Solo Travel
Replies: 40
Views: 3715

Re: Solo Travel

I've taken many bike trips by myself. I am sociable and am happy to walk up to people I don't know and ask them questions and start talking. You don't say in your post if you are comfortable doing that or not. While I enjoy my own company and am tired after a long day on a bicycle, I find that after...
by Raybo
Sat Aug 06, 2016 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Question About Bonds and Risk
Replies: 10
Views: 809

Re: A Question About Bonds and Risk

Of all the risks associated with investing, it seems that the US defaulting on its debt is one of the lowest out there. But, in the past two decades, the government has been shutdown and not paying interest on the US debt has been pushed to the brink. Even with these current events, I think the risk...
by Raybo
Fri Aug 05, 2016 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Switching to Medicare -- cost vs health insurance
Replies: 22
Views: 1087

Re: Switching to Medicare -- cost vs health insurance

To the OP, since you currently have Kaiser, why don't you check with them as to their Medicare offerings? That was my first attempt. I ended up in a video presentation with bouncy music and pretty graphics but with no real cost information. I wanted to check here to see others experience before cal...
by Raybo
Fri Aug 05, 2016 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Switching to Medicare -- cost vs health insurance
Replies: 22
Views: 1087

Switching to Medicare -- cost vs health insurance

I've always paid my own health insurance. It is my largest single annual expense. Next year, I turn 65 and will be eligible for Medicare. In trying to plan my budget going forward, I was wondering what my medical insurance costs will be under Medicare? Can anyone who has made the switch give me some...
by Raybo
Thu Aug 04, 2016 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 8891

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

The number of assumptions about the future and the past inherent in trying to calculate a Sustainable Withdrawal Rate (SWR) are legion: The past contains all the likely futures (i.e. a future retirement will be like one of the past retirements) The drivers of past returns are invariant and will also...
by Raybo
Thu Aug 04, 2016 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Family Europe Trip
Replies: 31
Views: 2098

Re: Family Europe Trip

Why do you want to go to Europe? Is it to look at museums, historic sites, shop, be in nature, take a boat ride, ride a bicycle, eat croissants or strawberries and cream, or something else?

There is no way someone can advise you without knowing such things.
by Raybo
Wed Aug 03, 2016 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 29 years old too young to buy Long Term Care Insurance?
Replies: 28
Views: 2828

Re: 29 years old too young to buy Long Term Care Insurance?

I bought LTCi when I was in my 40s as I drove to work over a curvy, 4-lane highway that had fatal accidents on it frequently (Highway 17 between Santa Cruz and Silicon Valley). It seemed prudent, as there was a small chance I might need it as a result of a car accident and it would be something I co...
by Raybo
Mon Aug 01, 2016 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 348
Views: 38610

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Some conclusions after reading the McClung book and participating in this thread: If things go bad enough, no harvesting or withdrawal method will succeed in maintaining an acceptable lifestyle. There are various harvesting strategies to use. While annual rebalancing to a pre-set asset allocation is...
by Raybo
Fri Jul 22, 2016 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirees, how much did you leave on the table?
Replies: 202
Views: 15381

Re: Early retirees, how much did you leave on the table?

There is no way for me to calculate this. I was self-employed teaching computer programming in Silicon Valley. Today, no one makes any real money doing that. I retired in 2000, the year that Silicon Valley blew itself up. I probably left some money "on the table" but I also could have spen...
by Raybo
Fri Jul 22, 2016 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 348
Views: 38610

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Nobody would follow such recommendation, there is no way. You are assuming that it is easy to stick with a pre-set AA when the market is cratering. Or, that people will reduce their lifestyles when their VPW formulas call them to do so. Why is it so hard to assume that people can't stick with 100% ...
by Raybo
Thu Jul 21, 2016 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 348
Views: 38610

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I contacted Michel McClung about the tests Siamond ran and graphed above and the conclusions that were drawn. Here is his response: I believe the initial criteria for this type of analysis is to first establish a metric. Without a metric there is no practical way to compare MANY retirements across m...
by Raybo
Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 348
Views: 38610

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I also am wondering what impact starting with 60% stocks has on your analysis? McClung suggests that 50/50 is the best AA to start with. With $1MM portfolio, that means $500K in bonds, which at $50k/year would be 10 years, at least, before your AA got to 100% stocks. While there are starting years w...
by Raybo
Wed Jul 20, 2016 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 348
Views: 38610

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Siamond, Thanks for the demonstration. It appears that your conclusion is that harvesting according to a pre-set AA is no worse than using Prime Harvesting and that you don't like the idea of letting your AA fluctuate, even up to 100%. As a result, you seem satisfied to reject McClung's work and sti...
by Raybo
Mon Jul 18, 2016 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 348
Views: 38610

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

In Chapter 9, McClung attempts to factor in market valuation not by changing the initial stock value but by adjusting the initial withdrawal percentage.
by Raybo
Sun Jul 17, 2016 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 348
Views: 38610

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I am not saying it is a bad method just that I think that those thinking about using this method should a) be prepared to take the extra risk involved of varying the asset allocation and in particular the chances of periods of holding a high stock allocation in retirement. One may find they take on...
by Raybo
Sun Jul 17, 2016 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 348
Views: 38610

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Well actually most harvesting methods ignore lifespan in their methodology. There is no planned end point. Do you have any reference that supports this statement? Every thing I've read about retirement spending is based on a retirement of a certain length. Surely, the needs of a 40 year retirement ...
by Raybo
Sun Jul 17, 2016 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Appropriate tip amount for river rafting guides?
Replies: 50
Views: 3211

Re: Appropriate tip amount for river rafting guides?

I like to go on bicycle trips. It costs me money to go on my (solo) trips. If someone offered to pay me to take them along on a trip, if I was willing to do all the logistics, then it would be a win for me, assuming this person was someone I was willing to travel with (again, I only ever tour solo)....
by Raybo
Sun Jul 17, 2016 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 348
Views: 38610

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I didn't see Roth conversions mentioned in the Table of Contents. Decisions around conversions between retirement and claiming SS will be impactful for me. Is that discussed in the book? In a private communication with the author, I asked how Roth conversions might change things. Here is the author...
by Raybo
Sun Jul 17, 2016 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 348
Views: 38610

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

They both had the same portfolio value,mix, lifespan etc. They aren't the same age and don't have the same lifespan. As long as we are creating straw men, assume we know that they will both die on the same day. Then, person 1 has had to fund 1 more year of retirement. Why should any method treat th...
by Raybo
Sat Jul 16, 2016 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 348
Views: 38610

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

longinvest wrote:(Note that I have not read the book; I am merely commenting based on what I read in this thread).


This does make it hard to respond to your clarifications when I am trying to respond to what is in the book.
by Raybo
Sat Jul 16, 2016 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 348
Views: 38610

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Since you so dislike "methods with a memory," what is your suggestion for determining which harvesting method to use for your own retirement? I am a big fan of "percent of current portfolio balance" methods with rebalancing (e.g. rebalance while taking withdrawal, which leads to...
by Raybo
Sat Jul 16, 2016 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 348
Views: 38610

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Please let me know if I am wrong in my assessment of the "memory" property of McClung's method. It is easy to conflate research results with real-life results. McClung is attempting to use the data we have to test various withdrawal methods to see how they do when pitted against one anoth...
by Raybo
Wed Jul 13, 2016 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sound bite.
Replies: 14
Views: 1028

Re: Sound bite.

The best way to get more growth in your portfolio is to not pay an advisor for this kind of advice!
by Raybo
Wed Jul 06, 2016 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 348
Views: 38610

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Isn't this approach at odds with the Firecalc method of simply withdrawing an amount that is apportioned exactly at the asset allocation of your total portfolio? That is my understanding of how Firecalc estimates your portfolio survival chance. Firecalc does not require you to do market forecasting...
by Raybo
Tue Jul 05, 2016 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 348
Views: 38610

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I have a practical question. I retired in 2000 (at 48). Since that time, I've sold a house and lived off my portfolio. I have always taken less than 4% from my pile each year. Up to now, I've used rebalancing to a set AA to harvest the money I need yearly. After reading some of McClung's book (I bou...

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