Search found 1512 matches

by Raybo
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 136
Views: 8149

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

There are several periods in US market history where there was a decline of 20% or more. Instead of using made up examples, why not use the real returns from real markets to see what happens after a 20% drop.

Here is a list of drops: https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbear.pdf
by Raybo
Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?
Replies: 28
Views: 2299

Re: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?

It all depends on how they define "the market." In my experience, the funds that claim to beat "the market" are using the wrong benchmark. Comparing small cap value to the S&P 500 makes no sense no matter which way the comparison goes. Then there is the issue of sales loads (usually not factored in)...
by Raybo
Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the 4% SWR still valid because inflation is low despite low rates?
Replies: 5
Views: 608

Re: Is the 4% SWR still valid because inflation is low despite low rates?

The issue isn't inflation, interest rates, equity returns. It is if the future will resemble the past. If, going forward, the US economy continues the trends, good and bad, of the past, then the 4% SWR will hold. If not, all bets are off.
by Raybo
Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Business Partnership Questions - Advice Sought
Replies: 2
Views: 248

Re: Business Partnership Questions - Advice Sought

Partnership in business is like being married to your business partner. I'd prepare for the things that might go wrong in advance. A kind of business pre-nup, if you will. What happens if one of you dies? Who gets the shares? Will you (or your partner) end up with a wife or kids as a co-owner? Shoul...
by Raybo
Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Switching from Medicare Advantage (Kaiser) to Medicare Part F
Replies: 11
Views: 539

Re: Switching from Medicare Advantage (Kaiser) to Medicare Part F

$170+20+70 = $260 plus your medicare premium (that's a wash) Do I have this right? that is the cost of the new plan. Minus your now extra premium of $92. So total added cost is $168 per month. $2016 extra per year. No copays or out of pocket with your new plan. Sounds good. However, in this day and...
by Raybo
Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Switching from Medicare Advantage (Kaiser) to Medicare Part F
Replies: 11
Views: 539

Re: Switching from Medicare Advantage (Kaiser) to Medicare Part F

neilpilot wrote:
Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:39 am
Agree with Spirit Rider. My savings in going with G over F more than covers the Medicare deductible. Also, it's obvious that the OP is not paying for Medicare A, which is free. I'm sure Raybo's $134/mo is for Medicare B.
Sorry, for the error, I fixed it in the OP.
by Raybo
Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Switching from Medicare Advantage (Kaiser) to Medicare Part F
Replies: 11
Views: 539

Switching from Medicare Advantage (Kaiser) to Medicare Part F

I have been a Kaiser member for 30+ years. When I hit Medicare age last May, I chose Kaiser's Medicare Advantage for my health plan. This isn't "real" Medicare (I can only get health care at a Kaiser facility) and the terms were pretty much the same as my previous plan: Co-pays for everything until ...
by Raybo
Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Foreign beneficiary on IRA options
Replies: 5
Views: 294

Re: Foreign beneficiary on IRA options

Is there some way to create a US bank account for your aunt with father's or your name on it that could receive money from the estate and that she could simply withdraw as she wanted using an ATM in her home country?
by Raybo
Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MLB Signal?
Replies: 9
Views: 1049

MLB Signal?

A team that used to be in the National League has won the world series as the American League Champion. I'm not sure what this portends, but maybe something like the old AFL team winning the Super Bowl might be in store.

Should I double down or lighten up?
by Raybo
Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Going to SF, Yosemite and Sacramento and NOW PORTLAND
Replies: 49
Views: 2313

Re: Going to SF, Yosemite and Sacramento

The best hike I've take in Yosemite is the Panoramic Trail. It starts at Glacier Point and walks all the way down to Happy Isles via Nevada falls. Takes all day, pretty much. Take the bus up to Glacier Falls and walk down. If you are going to go to Alcatraz, let me know via PM and I can give a guide...
by Raybo
Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trip in May: Starting in Munich, Ending in Interlaken - Where to go in between?
Replies: 27
Views: 1519

Re: Trip in May: Starting in Munich, Ending in Interlaken - Where to go in between?

I was in Munich in June and went from there to Interlaken (actually to Wengen). It wasn't an easy transfer. We took a bus to Zurich and then a train to Interlaken. Be sure to check your connections before you set your plans in stone. If you go to Salzburg definitely take in Berchtesgaden! It is 15 m...
by Raybo
Tue Oct 17, 2017 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how long did it take to get used to retirement
Replies: 105
Views: 10098

Re: how long did it take to get used to retirement

My suggestion is to make a list of things you have any interest in doing without regard for how much it costs, how long it takes, or the likelihood you would do them. Music, mountain climbing, art, whatever. My list had a couple dozen items. I have tried most of them and am still doing a few of them...
by Raybo
Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to secure your website?
Replies: 17
Views: 1176

Re: How to secure your website?

My guess is that hosted servers are more secure than one you host yourself unless you are current with all the known attack methods. I am not, so I am using a hosted service. Do you program? If so, then defeating attacks based on code injection (JavaScript susceptible) or database wildcard attacks a...
by Raybo
Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling Tradelines
Replies: 37
Views: 2234

Re: Selling Tradelines

Given that all our credit data is now on the dark net, thanks to the high quality IT staff at Equifax, why can't these people simply buy a new identify with good credit?
by Raybo
Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How young is too young to retire.
Replies: 55
Views: 8298

Re: How young is too young to retire.

Early retirement means that all of your friends will still be working while you are not. If you have hobbies/interests that can be done solo or together with your wife or kids, not having established friends around is OK. If you like doing things with other people, you will either have to find new f...
by Raybo
Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does anybody read the Medicare and You booklet?
Replies: 16
Views: 1005

Does anybody read the Medicare and You booklet?

I'm new to Medicare. This is my first January on it. I got mailed a Medicare and You booklet and wonder if I need to comb through it, glance at it, or ignore it?
by Raybo
Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with maturing TIP funds
Replies: 4
Views: 338

Re: What to do with maturing TIP funds

I used to ladder CDs, but they are a pain to buy with locked credit. I could buy them in my brokerage account, I guess.
by Raybo
Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with maturing TIP funds
Replies: 4
Views: 338

What to do with maturing TIP funds

Back in 2007 when the market was cratering, financial institutions appeared to be selling TIPS to raise capital. As a result, their prices fell and, as noted at the time on this forum, it was a good time to buy. I converted some of the money I had in Vanguard's Intermediate TIP fund to a 10 TIP bond...
by Raybo
Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Medicare versus Medicare Advantage for 2018
Replies: 19
Views: 1929

Re: Medicare versus Medicare Advantage for 2018

I joined Medicare last May. I have been a satisfied SF Kaiser member for over 30 years. In checking here and other places, I was satisfied that SF Kaiser Medicare Advantage would provide me with the care I'd come to expect. So, that is what I chose. I just got my 2018 annual renewal notice and Kaise...
by Raybo
Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Review of a boat-bike tour along the Danube River
Replies: 10
Views: 1118

Re: Review of a boat-bike tour along the Danube River

Curious if you had the option to ride more miles (kilometers) each day if you had wanted to? We used to live in Vienna and rode many 50-80 mile days along the Danube which is pretty easy due to the flat grade. However, all of our trips were out and backs from our apartment in Vienna. We have been t...
by Raybo
Fri Sep 29, 2017 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Review of a boat-bike tour along the Danube River
Replies: 10
Views: 1118

Re: Review of a boat-bike tour along the Danube River

Desert wrote:
Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:53 pm
What is the market doing in June, 2018? :happy
Typo fixed.
by Raybo
Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Review of a boat-bike tour along the Danube River
Replies: 10
Views: 1118

Review of a boat-bike tour along the Danube River

In June, 2017, my wife and I and two bike-riding friends did a one-week bike-riding cruise on the Danube River. The trip started and ended in Passau, a cute tourist town at the confluence of the Inn and Danube Rivers in southeast Germany. Every passenger on the ship was a bike rider and we rode our ...
by Raybo
Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative to Google Finance? [Portfolios feature deprecated]
Replies: 52
Views: 10385

Re: Alternative to Google Finance? [Portfolios feature deprecated]

I wrote my own on-line app for doing this.

I used to use Yahoo to update the prices. But, when it was purchased, this "feature" went away. I now use Bloomberg to get my quotes.
by Raybo
Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Places to see in Chicago
Replies: 45
Views: 3105

Re: Places to see in Chicago

I want to thank everyone for their suggestions and ideas. I went to Chicago and stayed with my good friend from graduate school. He lives in Westchester, a place that reminds me of the suburbs of LA where I grew up. I spent the weekend with him going to a voting machine hacking conference (his job),...
by Raybo
Thu Sep 28, 2017 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I am in the investment advice industry and I'm not sure if I provide any value
Replies: 67
Views: 6595

Re: I am in the investment advice industry and I'm not sure if I provide any value

What your advice is worth is a function of what the outcome would be without the advice. In my experience, very few people have the desire or capacity to invest on their own, let alone, deal with structuring a portfolio based on need to take risk and to last all the way through retirement. One quest...
by Raybo
Thu Sep 28, 2017 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Veggie Sandwich in South Bay Area
Replies: 4
Views: 350

Re: Best Veggie Sandwich in South Bay Area

Could you be more specific about what a "veggie" sandwich is?

When I am on the road (usually on a bicycle), my go-to place is Subway for their Veggie Patty sandwich. Not all Subways have them.
by Raybo
Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Journal of my ride across Western Europe
Replies: 9
Views: 1253

Re: Journal of my ride across Western Europe

My favorite Raybo photograph is from his bicycle trip from Washington DC to the Bogleheads Conference in Philadelphia in 2015. He photographed a spooky Halloween arrangement near a rural or suburban outdoor mailbox and driveway, complete with pumpkins, skeletons, bats, black cats and ghosts - and t...
by Raybo
Tue Sep 26, 2017 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Journal of my ride across Western Europe
Replies: 9
Views: 1253

Re: Journal of my ride across Western Europe

Raybo - I love every description of every ride. You write beautifully, we experience the magic you felt. And your photos are works of art. :happy Thank you for the kind words. I assume your investments are on auto-pedal 8-) Yes, they are "geared" to make me money by "riding" the market up!
by Raybo
Mon Sep 25, 2017 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Journal of my ride across Western Europe
Replies: 9
Views: 1253

Journal of my ride across Western Europe

In May, 2017, I rode my bicycle from Amsterdam to Passau, Germany. The ride took 28 days and included such highlights as the sand dunes west of Amsterdam, riding along the Rhine, the Vennbahn rail trail in Belgium and Luxembourg, bathing in Baden-Baden, the Bavarian Alps, Berchtesgaden and others. I...
by Raybo
Mon Sep 25, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you avoid risky adventures once you have the money?
Replies: 71
Views: 4313

Re: Do you avoid risky adventures once you have the money?

For me, it is just the opposite. Now that I have the money, I take long, solo bike rides (1 month or so) as often as I can. While I call them adventures and am aware of the risk of riding bicycles, I wouldn't call it a "risky" adventure. By my definition, an adventure involves risk; a vacation doesn...
by Raybo
Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:13 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Boglehead of another species
Replies: 9
Views: 1418

Re: Boglehead of another species

At Vanguard, no one knows you're a dog.
by Raybo
Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: can I rely solely on the value of my home to retire?
Replies: 25
Views: 2955

Re: can I rely solely on the value of my home to retire?

I retired with a good sized pile but not enough. I owned my house free and clear and in late 2003 (I.e. Not at the top), I sold it and moved in with my now wife. It doubled my pile. By itself, it wouldn't have been enough to retire. It also wasn't close to 1.8 million. What is your strategy for sell...
by Raybo
Fri Sep 22, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Age you retired
Replies: 112
Views: 8609

Re: Age you retired

48. Just after the dot.com bust. I taught computer programming and instead of getting new clients decided to retire. After finding the Bogleheads at morningstar.com, I discovered I didn't have enough assets. But, I sold my house and moved up with my, now, wife and haven't looked back. In a couple of...
by Raybo
Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Psychological effects of Early Retirement in peak earning years.
Replies: 63
Views: 7273

Re: Psychological effects of Early Retirement in peak earning years.

Actually, I worry about retirement because I enjoy the people I work with. I'm a lawyer, and am now the oldest litigator there, and the department chair. Young people stop by to chat about their cases. Young lawyers who want to learn from you are really fun. I will miss the intellectual stimulation...
by Raybo
Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Getting (young) kids interested in coding
Replies: 81
Views: 5348

Re: Getting (young) kids interested in coding

Can you code?

If so, why not create a simple JavaScript game for them and then teach them how it works and how to change it and let them at it?

Else, never mind.
by Raybo
Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Software professional salary
Replies: 10
Views: 1457

Re: Software professional salary

Sunshine22 wrote:
Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:56 pm
Nobody knows anyone personally on this forum ...:).
This is not true. I have met several posters on this forum in person.
by Raybo
Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Psychological effects of Early Retirement in peak earning years.
Replies: 63
Views: 7273

Re: Physiological effects of Early Retirement in peak earning years.

My father died when he was 58. I retired as early as I could.
by Raybo
Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are so many Chinese visiting my website?
Replies: 14
Views: 2553

Re: Why are so many Chinese visiting my website?

I don't get much traffic on my site (<1000 hits a day), so it easy to tell when I've have been targeted by a crackbot. I turned off all Ukraine and Russian IPs from hitting my site, which dropped the probe rate significantly. The cracking attempts are obvious and easy to defeat after some simple ana...
by Raybo
Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What money to store outside for disaster?
Replies: 63
Views: 5127

Re: What money to store outside for disaster?

I already carry an extra $200 in $20 in my wallet. I have seen what damp does to paper in ziploc bags and don't believe that is a long-term solution. I don't have a "go" bag and have no intention of creating one. Several people asked how the house could be uninhabitable but the outside space still a...
by Raybo
Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What money to store outside for disaster?
Replies: 63
Views: 5127

What money to store outside for disaster?

I live in San Francisco and a catastrophic earthquake could occur at any time without warning. I've been through one (1989), but everything remained intact and no real disruptions were caused regarding access to goods and money. My house has a small space, accessible from the outside, where I keep a...
by Raybo
Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Purchasing Home With Girlfriend; Good or Bad?
Replies: 68
Views: 5930

Re: Purchasing Home With Girlfriend; Good or Bad?

My niece did this and now that she and her co-owner have split, she is back with her parents while the ex-boyfriend has a renter. She is still liable for everything but they have an agreement in place that he will buy her out. This cost plenty in lawyers to draw up. My suggestion is to have a frank ...
by Raybo
Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax customer information leak
Replies: 711
Views: 49818

Re: Equifax says info stolen. What's my best course of action?

I have my credit locked. I didn't see anything about the breach including my code for unlocking my credit report. Does anyone know if such information was taken?
by Raybo
Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Guaranteed 7% Real Estate Deal: Pull from Stock Market?
Replies: 36
Views: 4028

Re: Guaranteed 7% Real Estate Deal: Pull from Stock Market?

Do you need the money?

10 years is a long time for everything to go smoothly. Remember companies go bankrupt and lawyers are expensive.
by Raybo
Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Market" Portfolio
Replies: 26
Views: 3357

Re: "The Market" Portfolio

There are many different things to invest in: stocks, bonds, art, cars, real estate, precious metals, etc. if you want to invest in "the market" using only stocks and bonds, you are missing some of the investment universe. But, no one tries to get a piece of everything as it isn't feasible or inexpe...
by Raybo
Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good Article on Retirement Investing and Withdrawals
Replies: 7
Views: 1484

Re: Good Article on Retirement Investing and Withdrawals

] The article is OK, but look what that video claims. It states that if you want a good retirement that will last 25 years, you will need to have saved at least 8 times your ending salary. Eight times? That's a 12.5% initial withdrawal rate. Can it last 25 years? Paul The withdrawal rate is calcula...
by Raybo
Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does "beat the market" mean?
Replies: 40
Views: 1869

Re: What does "beat the market" mean?

I think both are true. I don't think they can both be true. (1) says that you can't really ever beat the market except by dumb luck. (2) says you can systematically beat the market in the long run by choosing to invest in high-risk high-reward stocks - but you have to pay the cost of high volatilit...
by Raybo
Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does "beat the market" mean?
Replies: 40
Views: 1869

Re: What does "beat the market" mean?

I think both are true. I would suggest that the issue is one's definition of "the market." Many advisors I talked with and read about, seem to think that beating the S&P 500 (often without dividends accounted for) is the standard to aim for. I say beating the market has to an apples to apples compar...
by Raybo
Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Places to see in Chicago
Replies: 45
Views: 3105

Places to see in Chicago

Next week, I'm flying to Chicago to visit my good friend who is a native born Chicagoan. After 3 weekend days (He's taking Friday off) with him, I'll have 2 on my own. I'm not sure what he and I will do/see, so I thought I get some suggestions on some places I might visit myself. I'm pretty sure we ...
by Raybo
Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you track expenses ?
Replies: 58
Views: 3813

Re: How do you track expenses ?

I pay for most things with a credit card and they track my spending for me.