Search found 359 matches

by Portfolio7
Fri May 25, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 78
Views: 5036

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

I will maintain a small tilt to of about 5-8% of my portfolio to small and small value just in case I'm wrong but other than two distinct periods I don't see any difference. HOWEVER, they do seem to run at different times, so as part of an overall equity allocation I believe there can be a re-balan...
by Portfolio7
Fri May 25, 2018 2:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renting vs Owning Your Home
Replies: 69
Views: 4374

Re: Renting vs Owning Your Home

Circumstances matter. We've experienced every kind of financial result, but I'm not sure we'd change anything. Our first home was purchased as the early 90's housing recession in our area was turning around. In 9 years it tripled in value. Near as I could estimate, we earned about 21% annually on th...
by Portfolio7
Thu May 24, 2018 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 100
Views: 8905

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

The advice you are given here is conservative precisely because risky investor behavior tends to result in bad outcomes eventually. The philosophies advocated here are not about reaping the greatest reward. They are about maximizing your chances of success, thereby minimizing your chances of losing...
by Portfolio7
Tue May 22, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 101
Views: 11336

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Well, odds don't seem to support the SPY Index doubling, that would require a nominal return that's higher than the historical average I believe - but under 'normal' conditions you might expect the "dividend-adjusted" index to roughly double. I think the possibility of the latter is still fairly rob...
by Portfolio7
Mon May 21, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 252
Views: 45903

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

We are aiming for retirement assets to be about 70% of our NW at retirement. We won't get to 25x expenses in savings, but with SS, a small pension, and some other resources, we should be close in total. What does this mean? What it should mean is that net income needed after SS, pension, and other ...
by Portfolio7
Fri May 18, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 401k limit is $55K - do you max it out? Why/why not?
Replies: 110
Views: 10006

Re: 2018 401k limit is $55K - do you max it out? Why/why not?

I maxed out last year. I end loosing company match for a whole month. the 2017 max is 53000, that's total sum of pre aft and comapany match. I will never repeat my mistake again. I lost couple of thousand company match. I would rather contribute less than max then loosing company match. I used to h...
by Portfolio7
Fri May 18, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 252
Views: 45903

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

It has to be defined in terms of target spending - the 'average' number would be meaningless to everyone except that mythical average person. Agreed. Income vs. expenses is what counts in the long run. I would say 25-30 times expenses is a safe target. It is reasonable to use a ballpark figure like...
by Portfolio7
Fri May 18, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 401k limit is $55K - do you max it out? Why/why not?
Replies: 110
Views: 10006

Re: 2018 401k limit is $55K - do you max it out? Why/why not?

I maxed out last year. I end loosing company match for a whole month. the 2017 max is 53000, that's total sum of pre aft and comapany match. I will never repeat my mistake again. I lost couple of thousand company match. I would rather contribute less than max then loosing company match. I used to h...
by Portfolio7
Thu May 17, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 401k limit is $55K - do you max it out? Why/why not?
Replies: 110
Views: 10006

Re: 2018 401k limit is $55K - do you max it out? Why/why not?

Nope, I suspect we're something of an outlier on this thread. We used to when we started saving. Now we contribute the minumum to match, but it's pretty good - we contribute 6% and our employers 7% for 13% total. It should still be enough to get us at least 80% income replacement by the time we reti...
by Portfolio7
Thu May 03, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6550
Views: 1406393

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

True - but isn't a lot of that from the tax cuts and not from businesses actually doing their jobs better? Luck and not skill? More than half of the total profit growth in the first quarter stemmed from a decline in tax rates A boost indeed! In this case, I don't think it really matters that the ta...
by Portfolio7
Wed May 02, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating to last year's S&P (joke? riddle? paradox?)
Replies: 47
Views: 3294

Re: Allocating to last year's S&P (joke? riddle? paradox?)

To me it's not even in the same category, a completely different thing. It's like saying that 50% stocks, 50% bonds approximates the original idea here. The return distributions and risk exposures are not similar. The key feature being discussed is time diversification of stock returns. You don't g...
by Portfolio7
Wed May 02, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating to last year's S&P (joke? riddle? paradox?)
Replies: 47
Views: 3294

Re: Allocating to last year's S&P (joke? riddle? paradox?)

For example, a portfolio with a 9.23% long term return (assumes 1% drag) with a 10-11% SD still sounds pretty darn good. Selling PUT options should get you that kind of return, at least in theory. See e.g. http://www.cboe.com/framed/pdfframed?content=/micro/buywrite/cboe-feb08-2016-kwc-ingarm.pdf F...
by Portfolio7
Wed May 02, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating to last year's S&P (joke? riddle? paradox?)
Replies: 47
Views: 3294

Re: Allocating to last year's S&P (joke? riddle? paradox?)

Nisiprius, this is brilliant. Maybe not practical, but brilliant. I am out of my depth, but it seems to me (?!) that the cost to create Latex is the cost of options to represent Latex, if that is possible - never used options, but I am skeptical, I admit.) If it's possible, then whatever that drag i...
by Portfolio7
Thu Apr 26, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Warren Buffett S&P 500 Recommendation
Replies: 76
Views: 7306

Re: Another Warren Buffett S&P 500 Recommendation

...where lower valuations point to higher expected results. I still find it interesting when people here seem to accept it as a given that lower valuations mean higher expected returns... As opposed to the idea that the market is pricing the valuations relative to their expected risk/return i.e. a ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 25, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 33
Views: 4338

Re: Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel

I've read an earlier edition (3rd?) from the library, and I decided to buy a used edition of the 5th. It's a great reference book, and makes several important points about the character of equity investments. In my opinion there wasn't much in the way of revelatory information included, but the boo...
by Portfolio7
Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you buy new or used cars?
Replies: 113
Views: 7563

Re: Do you buy new or used cars?

I bought used when I was single. When I married, we bought two new toyotas. Sienna went 16 years and 265K miles before a massive oil leak while traveling, and I ground the gears to make it to the hotel. We gave it to a radio station and rented a car back. The Camry went 20 years and 305K miles, engi...
by Portfolio7
Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How old are you and how much do you save for retirement a year
Replies: 244
Views: 29438

Re: How old are you and how much do you save for retirement a year

I guess about $19-20K, about half of which is matching. We both contribute just enough to match in our 401Ks. Combined with DW, in percentage terms, we used to save 10-15%, with our employers throwing in another 4-5%. So, a total between 15 and 20%. Now we save about 6%, with our employers throwing ...
by Portfolio7
Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension Freeze - What did you do?
Replies: 85
Views: 9403

Re: Pension Freeze - What did you do?

I'm kind of surprised when I hear about pensions going away, I thought that was a done deal for most companies. Ours went away over ten years ago... of course, I'd be retiring in about 4 years if it hadn't, around age 55, but instead it seems likely I'll work another 9 or 10, unless DW's business gr...
by Portfolio7
Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What If Rip Van Winkle Invested In The Stock Market?
Replies: 6
Views: 1287

Re: What If Rip Van Winkle Invested In The Stock Market?

Marketwatch balances one doomsday article per day with one super-Bull article per day - it'll give ya whiplash. I prefer Bloomberg. :wink: There's a more heartening view from Bob Dieli, via Jeff Miller of Dash of Insight. He suggests we're still in the middle of the economic expansion phase of the b...
by Portfolio7
Fri Apr 20, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT article: Everyone should hire a financial planner
Replies: 103
Views: 9251

Re: NYT article: Everyone should hire a financial planner

I think it is worthwhile to see a good financial advisor at certain pivotal times, but also it depends on the complexity of your situation. I think the most critical time to engage one is a) when you are young and setting a course for family, college, retirement and B) 10-15 years before retirement ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What hedge strategies do you employ?
Replies: 29
Views: 2753

Re: What hedge strategies do you employ?

Paying down debt. #1 Priority for the next ten years. Car, Business, Heloc, Mortgage.

Other Hedges:
Cash
Bonds
Low Volatility stocks
REITs
Diversification
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 98
Views: 11708

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

Recent post at markovprocesses.com suggests that the Yale Portfolio returns could have been achieved with a 60/40 portfolio leveraged at 40%... for less risk than Yale took on. I had trouble copying in the link, but it is also at Abnormalreturns.com, Friday's post (4/13/18).
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why traditional IRA better than Roth IRA
Replies: 87
Views: 7379

Re: Why traditional IRA better than Roth IRA

families normally don't move up in tax brackets when they retire. Except on this forum, of course, with our Prodigious Accumulators of Wealth. :wink: BHs are definitely not the norm. I feel like I'm on the low end of NW for my age on this board, even while being in the top 10% of wealth for the US....
by Portfolio7
Thu Apr 12, 2018 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 5599

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

Nisiprius, that's a very nice piece of work! I'd done some noodling in that same territory, but with less rigor... and came away thinking that I'd best avoid the field entirely. I'll wait for some clear long term benefits before I consider anything new.
by Portfolio7
Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bull Market Timing
Replies: 60
Views: 4797

Re: Bull Market Timing

I don't think we're near the end. I think the market is moving sideways to work off an overbought condition, using the recent political uncertainty as an excuse to do so. Who knows the exact % decline, in 2011 we were down 19.4%. Are we serious that 0.6% (the gap between 19.4% and 20%) means 2011 wa...
by Portfolio7
Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing - A convincing article
Replies: 67
Views: 6052

Re: Factor Investing - I convincing article

I do wonder if investors here were able to stick with factor bet strategies. The original Larry Portfolio had 30% SC Value and 70% Int Treasuries, if I'm recalling correctly. Holding that for the last few years would have been tough. I'd have needed to meditate on the mantra, "Do not confuse outcom...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much money can a CPA save you?
Replies: 52
Views: 5932

Re: How much money can a CPA save you?

DW is a CPA, so we save a lot! :P Seriously, I always did my own taxes until we got married, but I had some experience (I took a class in college and used to volunteer at community tax prep sessions, helping people with simple returns.) I've had a chance to see inside the business a little, as DW ha...
by Portfolio7
Sun Apr 08, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Make The Case Against Online Trading Academy
Replies: 33
Views: 2501

Re: Help Me Make The Case Against Online Trading Academy

If the people selling this system are now rich, and don't need to make any more money... why are they charging your co-worker $50K for their classes? One other thing. I'm grateful my Dad got out for only $3K back 25 years ago or so, but these trading schemes have been around for decades. Why are non...
by Portfolio7
Sun Apr 08, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?
Replies: 163
Views: 12136

Re: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?

I thought I'd posted, but don't see anything in the comments, so apologies if repeat: About age 50. About 70/30 [or with a little more detail, 30/30/10/30 (US Eq/Int'l Eq/Real Estate/Stable Value Fund)] I am still uncertain about glidepath. Probably 60/40 by around age 55. Maybe 40/60 when I retire....
by Portfolio7
Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What can we learn from secret millionaires.
Replies: 93
Views: 16903

Re: What can we learn from secret millionaires.

Those of us who have amassed that sort of wealth or are on track to do so should realize how fortunate and lucky we are. Yes, many of us worked hard, but we also usually had a lot of help, and caught some lucky breaks too. Luck had nothing to do with it, fortunate, depends on your perspective. Help...
by Portfolio7
Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What can we learn from secret millionaires.
Replies: 93
Views: 16903

Re: What can we learn from secret millionaires.

I think the most important thing about secret millionaires, is that they exist. (And by secret millionaire I mean people who are FI but don't look it. We've hit our first million, but we're not what I would call FI, and also live in a pretty nice area - so I don't think we really qualify, even thoug...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone changed their AA/IPS/investing strategy recently?
Replies: 25
Views: 1932

Re: Has anyone changed their AA/IPS/investing strategy recently?

Well, yes actually, two changes. Mostly the change is in my 'play money' account; I shifted just a few percent from stocks to foreign bonds... not because stocks were declining, but just because I was thinking the market prospects in int'l bonds seemed pretty good. I've been refining a system for my...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6550
Views: 1406393

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Most economic indicators are strong - a few are in decline, most continue to make steady improvement. The thing about the last two big dips, both involved a market where valuations were totally divorced from underlying fundamentals. Dotcom, then the housing market and it's leveraged impact. At leas...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6550
Views: 1406393

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

...Most economic indicators are strong - a few are in decline, most continue to make steady improvement. The thing about the last two big dips, both involved a market where valuations were totally divorced from underlying fundamentals. Dotcom, then the housing market and it's leveraged impact. At l...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6550
Views: 1406393

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Another day, another 500+ point, 2+% change on the Dow. This is getting pretty old.. It's increasingly clear we're in the early days of a bear market. To top it off, we just breached the 200 DMA on the S&P. Since just about everybody from your neighborhood cab driver to your elderly grandma knows a...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the magic savings rate???
Replies: 50
Views: 6482

Re: What’s the magic savings rate???

the ambiguity of savings rate percentages on different websites is very annoying. how do you guys weigh the combined pre/post savings vehicles? historically, i have just considered it all "after tax" when assessing it vs net. the probablity that its all after tax in retirement is very high. for exa...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 148
Views: 14895

Re: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

No Gold as I think Treasuries will do the same thing in a down market and they do pay some interest. If interest rates ever go back up to anything resembling historically normal levels, Treasurys will get massacred, whereas gold may do very well. Just look at the 1970's for an example of this. I tr...
by Portfolio7
Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you invest in Real Estate ? Why ?
Replies: 25
Views: 2274

Re: Do you invest in Real Estate ? Why ?

Not really. We have our residence, and then we also own a house in another state that my FIL lives in. We've considered investing in certain situations where we know there is high demand, but typically the cash flow risk has been daunting. I doubt we'll ever do so. When my FIL is done with the other...
by Portfolio7
Sun Apr 01, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “We’re not making enough money off you”
Replies: 62
Views: 10929

Re: “We’re not making enough money off you”

DW is a partner in a small CPA firm. They have fired many customers on the basis of how difficult they are to work with (I want to note that it has nothing to do with the difficulty of the client's tax situation, in fact sometimes the more complex the better, given the range of talent in the firm. A...
by Portfolio7
Sun Apr 01, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retired Ins. executives opinion on Whole Life Insurance
Replies: 8
Views: 1977

Re: Retired Ins. executives opinion on Whole Life Insurance

My understanding is that there are cases where Whole Life makes sense, particularly with Estate Planning. People will use Whole Life and other such insurance products as a tax shelter. Variable Universal Life and Variable Annuities come to mind. Might make sense for certain high net worth individua...
by Portfolio7
Sat Mar 31, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your U.S. : International ratio?
Replies: 190
Views: 35287

Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Dont' both 100% US and 100% Global have the same benefit of being sufficiently diversified to eliminate individual stock risk? Isn't this also true of just about any index fund-based investment approach that has reasonable diversification? I think one's answer to inclusion of international equity ma...
by Portfolio7
Sat Mar 31, 2018 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does it seem there are so many bad/poor 401K plans?
Replies: 36
Views: 3709

Re: Why does it seem there are so many bad/poor 401K plans?

Good posts above... also, sometimes it's not the plans themselves but the options that were chosen - ignorance on the part of the company setting up the 401k, combined with a bit of greed on the part of some of the 401k provider employees, where the Provider's incentives really aren't aligned. I'm a...
by Portfolio7
Sat Mar 31, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we missing recession /bear market beginning
Replies: 174
Views: 17857

Re: Are we missing recession /bear market beginning

I actually get where you're coming from. I became conservative twice in my investing life, early 2000 and late 2007. Did I bet everything? Definitely not. Why? Because I have never had a million dollars rolling in annually. I could be richer with a more aggressive investment approach, but I could al...
by Portfolio7
Fri Mar 30, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1821
Views: 330323

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

-0.50% (Maybe a fraction worse, like -0.52%, If I factored in our tiny but 100% equity IRAs) AA is roughly 70/30, tilted small and value and Int'l. My portfolio is my own design, but could well end up a caution. After I came up with it, I backtested it and yes, it looked great - but the past 2+ year...
by Portfolio7
Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could all of these "low expected returns over next 10 years" predictions be wrong?
Replies: 120
Views: 11086

Re: Could all of these "low expected returns over next 10 years" predictions be wrong?

I have very little faith in such outlooks. I don't know if it's really actionable in any case, to know. I'm not changing my allocations in any way. If I did, I guess maybe I'd be a little more conservative with my Equity/Bond split - no point taking on risk when returns will be sub-par. Or, if bond ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 15, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many people small value-tilt international?
Replies: 13
Views: 1502

Re: How many people small value-tilt international?

I tilt mostly small, less to value. International small cap is a substantial slice of my portfolio... usually about 10%, right now about 14%. VSS is about a third of it, and then I have two DFA funds for another third each. One of the DFA funds has a modest value tilt. That plus EM and a little glob...
by Portfolio7
Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's doing 100% international equity?
Replies: 79
Views: 9043

Re: Who's doing 100% international equity?

My base AA Equity split is 58% US 42% Int'l. The AA is not static, based on relative valuation and momentum indicators I will skew AA a bit. Right now I'm at 48% US and 52% Int'l, which is pretty much as far as my approach allows me to skew in this respect. The S&P500 continues to be a strong source...
by Portfolio7
Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it easier to 'know' when the US Total Market Index will fall/stagnate (versus rise) over a period of several days?
Replies: 14
Views: 1464

Re: Is it easier to 'know' when the US Total Market Index will fall/stagnate (versus rise) over a period of several days

Edited to simplify: In late January/early February 2018, there was a sense that the US Stock Market Index would continue fall for at least several days (and it did). Is a falling market more accurate to predict than a rising one over the short term? The dream of market timing dies hard. The best sc...
by Portfolio7
Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your investment strength?
Replies: 70
Views: 5399

Re: What is your investment strength?

Good luck is certainly a good part of it. Starting early. From 23-24 I saved 20% of my income, then I lost my job and went through everything I'd saved. Then I got another job and by 27 had saved another few grand and paid off all my student loans. That's when I started my 401K, and saved 15% + pret...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Wanted. No Experience Necessary
Replies: 20
Views: 2649

Re: Investors Wanted. No Experience Necessary

I did look unto horse betting as an asset class. If they can bet on Commodity Futures PCRIX or the price of Gold GLD, why not a HORSE ETF? It has zero correlation with the U.S. Stock Market, so it has that going for it. Horse racing, like poker, is a skills based game where you compete against othe...