Search found 188 matches

by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irrational Despair?
Replies: 15
Views: 1285

Re: Irrational Despair?

I'm seeing lots of articles like this: 7 signs the stock market is ready to run smack into a wall http://www.marketwatch.com/story/7-signs-the-stock-market-is-ready-to-run-smack-into-a-wall-2017-08-18 Irrational despair seems to be the disorder of the day. Or is it quite rational? Should we sell ev...
by Portfolio7
Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two nice charts on default and duration risk
Replies: 11
Views: 1008

Re: Two nice charts on default and duration risk

That first chart would mesh well with another thread that discussed how Fed policy resulted in the chart for Treasuries pretty much always being a straight line. I'm not smart enough to try to replicate all the essential elements of that discussion. The contrast with non-treasury bonds, and the mix ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stable Value Funds vs Bond Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 2002

Re: Stable Value Funds vs Bond Funds

I am with your wife for now. I also use my Nationwide stable value fund paying 3.5%. The board here approved 3 years ago when we set up the 3 fund portfolio. Also, like I stated in another post. Women have something in the gut that tells them what is correct. Even sometimes when they know nothing. ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?
Replies: 27
Views: 2416

Re: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?

What long term plan? I did some dumb stuff out of ignorance, but it worked out ok. Here it is, warts and such: When I started I only knew I should diversify my 401K, without knowing what that meant except 'buy different stuff'. I had about every weird combination of assets you can imagine. I didn't ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3791
Views: 989270

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

This might be the correction that many people are waiting for. Let us see if they have the courage to jump in. It just so happens that my managed account at Fidelity was liquidated Monday and the funds( 460k ) are finally available finally available today in my self directed account so I can start ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I Buy a New Car?
Replies: 42
Views: 2853

Re: Should I Buy a New Car?

With no special conditions, I'd keep the Camry all the way; pay your $400-$1000 annually in regular maintenance to keep it running, and burn up those miles on an old reliable car. Special conditions: A) it's had a lot of repairs or B) you need to stay in a newer car due to an image requirement with ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Aug 07, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bearish trends beneath the surface
Replies: 13
Views: 1560

Re: bearish trends beneath the surface

Isn't this kinda normal for the markets? I guess that's kinda why I posted this. :happy My complete equity allocation is in VTSAX (Vanguard's TSM). All the slice-n-dice and factor arguments left me a little cold -- feeling like there might be something to it but not entirely sure and, even if so, w...
by Portfolio7
Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: Who Sold Stock During the 2008-9 Crash?
Replies: 85
Views: 7074

Re: Study: Who Sold Stock During the 2008-9 Crash?

This is like a confession of past sins. By way of comparison, I didn't sell a thing in 2000-2004, but still it was a scarring experience. I almost sold in March 2000, but stuck with B&H. I decided I would learn how to deal with future drawdowns. :greedy I was 100% equities in November 2007. By the e...
by Portfolio7
Sun Aug 06, 2017 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bearish trends beneath the surface
Replies: 13
Views: 1560

Re: bearish trends beneath the surface

Isn't this kinda normal for the markets? There's always a relative few big winners each year, there's always a certain amount of rotation at the top, and 70% of stocks are down in any given year, many in bear territory (Go Cal!). Anyways, sure breadth varies, but volatility is low, bears and bulls s...
by Portfolio7
Sun Aug 06, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 225
Views: 32776

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

Mlm wrote:I feel so inadequate :shock:
Yeah. Near as I can figure, DW and I are in top 5% of savers in this country for age and income, and this place is still an eye opener.
by Portfolio7
Sun Aug 06, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?
Replies: 90
Views: 8972

Re: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?

Swenson pretty much had me convinced of the value of Intermediate Treasuries to keep the 'safe' money safe. I admit I was an easy sell, and maybe need to revisit. Anyways, after input from several knowledgeable bogleheads, and investigating my 401(k), it seemed to make sense to look at the Stable Va...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 04, 2017 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using VMVFX Vanguard [Global] Minimum Volatility fund for international.
Replies: 14
Views: 1071

Re: Using VMVFX Vanguard [Global] Minimum Volatility fund for international.

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=816974 Apparently investors are bailing on low vol funds because they are underperforming even though that is what you would expect in an up market. I consider that good news for anyone invested. The question 4-12 months ago was whether low vol...
by Portfolio7
Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using VMVFX Vanguard [Global] Minimum Volatility fund for international.
Replies: 14
Views: 1071

Re: Using VMVFX Vanguard [Global] Minimum Volatility fund for international.

As long as you stay the course and don't punt and go to a traditional int'l fund if global min vol underperforms, it is a reasonable idea. Last year at the Bogleheads meeting Gus Sauter briefly talked about the quant fund run in house with real money (Vanguard seed money). . VMNVX Volatility Measur...
by Portfolio7
Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is now time to move into international stocks?
Replies: 57
Views: 6568

Re: Is now time to move into international stocks?

I would suggest it depends on your investing strategy. If that is straight buy and hold, and that's the best proven strategy, then no, it's never 'time', except to rebalance to your plan AA. If you believe in modestly overweighting areas that are under-valued, and can commit to that for several year...
by Portfolio7
Wed Aug 02, 2017 5:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A poll: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 270
Views: 21090

Re: A poll: How much money do you need to retire?

50 yrs old. House will not be paid off. $2.3M by age 60. My wife's business should throw off some money

$ exclude house and business (A loan for the latter will be paid off in 5 years.)
by Portfolio7
Tue Aug 01, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing - Less Effective?
Replies: 5
Views: 432

Factor Investing - Less Effective?

Just a heads up for Factor investors... Perusing Abnormal Returns, and it had a link to Capital Spectator, which ran a sample of factor based ETFs (randomly generated portfolios selecting from several ETFs) 1000 times and compared to the S&P 500. The results are not terribly encouraging. They ad...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jul 31, 2017 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Plan for Small Business
Replies: 9
Views: 685

Re: 401K Plan for Small Business

Thanks! I've looked at them also, but with less rigor. I've heard Paychex competes against (and their terms are similar to) ADP - the initial rate data I dredged up from various sources seemed consistent with ADP, anyways... ADP is in the running because my wife's firm uses them for payroll, they of...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jul 30, 2017 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Plan for Small Business
Replies: 9
Views: 685

Re: 401K Plan for Small Business

Thanks, appreciate the comments. It's a difficult area to do compares, I'll look into V/A as well. When you call Vanguard small business - make sure they know how small you are. That helps - they have pretty straightforward plans for fixed costs for very small businesses (like under 15 people). Som...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jul 30, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Plan for Small Business
Replies: 9
Views: 685

Re: 401K Plan for Small Business

Thanks, appreciate the comments. It's a difficult area to do compares, I'll look into V/A as well.
by Portfolio7
Sat Jul 29, 2017 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Plan for Small Business
Replies: 9
Views: 685

401K Plan for Small Business

I'm not sure if this is the right place to ask this, but looking for any advice on 401K Plans for small businesses. My wife's business currently uses Dyatech, and it's loaded with American Funds at 1.4% fees or more. Plan Cost is cheap, $500 annually. Less than 10 Employees on the plan. I ran a fina...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Grading The Forecasters
Replies: 14
Views: 1986

Re: Larry Swedroe: Grading The Forecasters

Ken Fisher bragged for years that he was at the top of the list over the long term, not sure if that was every year or if you just combine 10 or 15 years or whatever. He has a couple books, but I found the one I read less than compelling. He's pretty much a perma-bull, so he's going to out-perform t...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jul 27, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 27
Views: 2412

Re: International and US CAPE

.... At a high level, a direct application of cape to the investing process likely de-optimized one's portfolio. While these 10 year outlooks may be directionally indicative (not sure I buy that entirely), the pathway to get there is incredibly unpredictable. Staying the course has generated strong...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jul 27, 2017 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 27
Views: 2412

Re: International and US CAPE

My understanding of CAPE is that it's a notoriously poor market-timing tool (e.g. Cape data has been supportive of an overweight position in EM since 2008, but only in 2017 has that approach born much advantage. Europe/EAFE is very similar in that Cape is on the low end of the historical range, and...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 27
Views: 2412

Re: International and US CAPE

Thanks for the info! Jumping to the punch line, applying reversion to the mean, current p/e vs historical seems to suggests one should overweight in EM, underweight in US. My understanding of CAPE is that it's a notoriously poor market-timing tool (e.g. Cape data has been supportive of an overweight...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jul 26, 2017 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% fee per year to buy s&p500 with principle gaurantee
Replies: 64
Views: 6032

Re: 5% fee per year to buy s&p500 with principle gaurantee

Just some noob questions & thoughts... I believe that one has to start with the concept of insurance, which is to protect against significant risk (not to protect against all risk.) Rather than insuring the principle via options, wouldn't it make a lot more sense (and be a lot less expensive) to...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BASE INVESTMENT or What Your Ruler
Replies: 14
Views: 822

Re: BASE INVESTMENT or What Your Ruler

I know the proper compare should be a similar portfolio... but as one poster said, my portfolio, being all index funds, is also my benchmark. That being pointless (I get what the market gives me!), I actually do compare to the S&P500. I also compare to lazy portfolios about once per year. I comp...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8042

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

Right now, the world market looks like: 30% US stocks 27% non-US stocks 22% US bonds 21% non-US bonds Hi, can you provide the source for this info? I've seen several comments in the media to the effect that the Global stock/bond split is more like 40/60 vs the 57/43 shown here. I'm sure there is a ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jul 25, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8042

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

Right now, the world market looks like: 30% US stocks 27% non-US stocks 22% US bonds 21% non-US bonds Hi, can you provide the source for this info? I've seen several comments in the media to the effect that the Global stock/bond split is more like 40/60 vs the 57/43 shown here. I'm sure there is a ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: % bogleheads of overall population
Replies: 82
Views: 10472

Re: % bogleheads of overall population

Us Gen Xers know we can't rely on pensions, SS is a roll of the dice, and then there is inflation... $1M aint' what it used to be. I'd like to hit $3M, but anything over $2M might entice me to leave the rat race. This stat doesn't surprise me at all. My inlaws were talking about winning the lottery...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ameriprise Recommendations
Replies: 2
Views: 458

Re: Ameriprise Recommendations

Just one more reason to stay away from Ameriprise (and many other financial advisers). Keep things simple and avoid trying to be too clever. Ameriprise was our first big mistake as young investors. We got stung for over $5K in loads, but it convinced us to drop Ameriprise and figure out how to inve...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you find financial advisors to be all that bright?
Replies: 53
Views: 4898

Re: Do you find financial advisors to be all that bright?

Some are very very bright. The kind of person you're talking about, who challenges you and brings new perspectives. Boutique firms and such, in my limited experience. Some are so-so. Quite a few have a lot of semi-relevant knowledge, but really don't grasp the essentials. Eating your own cooking doe...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?
Replies: 166
Views: 17749

Re: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?

I'm amazed that there is still so much skepticism following an 8+ year bull market. Aren't we supposed to be blinded by greed by now? Exactly. I will believe that the market is in for a crash when people on the street start talking about "burn rate" (ala 2001). +1. As long as we have a wa...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jul 20, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: % bogleheads of overall population
Replies: 82
Views: 10472

Re: % bogleheads of overall population

I think folks that question the idea that 10% of the population may be millionaires are not factoring in that many people now have large retirement accounts that count as household assets that use to be tied up on defined benefit retirement plans thus not showing up in net worth calculations. This....
by Portfolio7
Thu Jul 20, 2017 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62
Replies: 203
Views: 31537

Re: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62

Over the next 10-15 years there will be 136 million people collecting SS checks (yes I know some will die but lets keep this simple) and there is not enough money to go around so there will either be much higher taxes, a benefit hair cut, or some combination of both. I could wait until I am 70 to m...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3791
Views: 989270

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

2000 just seemed like we were blowing off the top - overinvestment leading to a correction, no big deal, even if it was very painful. 2008 scared the bejezus out of me because there were legitimate signs that the entire financial system could go down. My favorite Onion article had Bernanke roaming d...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 6641

Re: The Quest for Perfection

I understand the drive to optimize a portfolio. My approach was very different, I abandoned the core and satellite idea entirely, so it's interesting to see you build something on that kind of model. I use 9 funds, the smallest AA is 6%, the largest 30% (FI) I definitely have opinions, so will share...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid Ubiquity Savings as 401(k) provider until they fix Mar/Apr 2016 problems
Replies: 61
Views: 10591

Re: Avoid Ubiquity Savings as 401(k) provider until they fix Mar/Apr 2016 problems

I'll chime in here to report that Ubiquity still sucks. I'm looking at a transaction report for my wife and her 6/15 contributions just settle on 7/10. Is that normal? It makes it impossible to keep any kind of current track of her 401(k) account with them. Also, if you sort by date, they do it lex...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jul 14, 2017 1:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fascinating Morningstar Article - Mutual Fund Flows
Replies: 25
Views: 2640

Re: Fascinating Morningstar Article - Mutual Fund Flows

My 401K is at Fidelity, so I moved all our IRAs and past 401Ks there also. Have not regretted that move at all. The on-line interface is great, customer service is great, there are great funds and ETFs, low cost and otherwise if you dabble, and the local office was able to help me set up a Roth IRA ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jul 14, 2017 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 90:10 AA - what don't you believe about it?
Replies: 101
Views: 6984

Re: 90:10 AA - what don't you believe about it?

1929 and 1965. Ponder the decades that followed; I can say it's enough to give me religion. I was 100% equities mostly from 1995 to 2007. Unsettled in 2007, I was shifting AA all year, was about 50/50 when the big drop came in August 2008. Was very happy about that, but I had realized I had no idea ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jul 14, 2017 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: % bogleheads of overall population
Replies: 82
Views: 10472

Re: % bogleheads of overall population

Is everyone registered on this site considered a boglehead? I've done some unbogle-ish things in the past, and probably will in the future.... I'm at least traveling the same direction, if maybe on a mostly parrallel road. DW and I have many multiples of that average retirement savings amount, but n...
by Portfolio7
Sat Jul 01, 2017 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1403
Views: 250737

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

8.21% 70/30 [34% US Equities / 36% Int'l Equities / 30% FI (Stable Value)]
by Portfolio7
Sat Jul 01, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Did You Start Investing Your Own Money?
Replies: 47
Views: 3128

Re: When Did You Start Investing Your Own Money?

At Age 29 I'd paid off my student loans, bought a cheap used car, and built a small emergency fund, and was finally making decent bank. Have been investing since then. My sons will both have Roth IRAs before they go to college. One at age 14, the other age 17, the difference due to... circumstances.
by Portfolio7
Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the “Natural Real Interest Rate”?
Replies: 28
Views: 2344

Re: What is the “Natural Real Interest Rate”?

One question that arose in researching this topic: Why don’t central banks publish and update their estimates of natural real interest rates on a regular basis? As much as I'd love to see that, I'm not sure how anything good comes of publicizing an indeterminate number. You can't forecast it, you c...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jun 27, 2017 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Favorite Vanguard Fund
Replies: 56
Views: 6743

Re: Your Favorite Vanguard Fund

I try hard to take a cold-hearted approach, but I do admit an emotional attachment to a few funds. That's why I still own some FOCKX, Fidelity's OTC fund. I think it's a solid long term investment despite fees that are higher than I prefer. It's done very well for me, but valuations do give me pause...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% of portfolio balance a better SWR than 3-4% inflation-adjusted?
Replies: 27
Views: 3082

Re: 5% of portfolio balance a better SWR than 3-4% inflation-adjusted?

Personally, I expect to retire before my wife, who's happy with her business and will likely want to keep a hand in. Therefore in the early years we may withdraw 5-7% depending on various transitions, but then scale that back to about 3% once she hits full retirement age. Wouldn't you be pulling le...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jun 26, 2017 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% of portfolio balance a better SWR than 3-4% inflation-adjusted?
Replies: 27
Views: 3082

Re: 5% of portfolio balance a better SWR than 3-4% inflation-adjusted?

So, this thread has me curious. I don't know how to do on-line polls, but I'm wondering how many people actually utilize withdrawl rates in the sense that they start at 3 or 4% and adjust each year based on some algorithm. Personally, I expect to retire before my wife, who's happy with her business ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jun 26, 2017 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 10236

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

I have been changing my AA every couple of years (or more frequently) for 22 years of investing. Mostly it was trying to incorporate new knowledge, but the point is that it doesn't appear to have hurt my performance any. I think what's most important is to have a reasonable AA at all times (and not ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jun 23, 2017 2:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Costco vs. Amazon - Thoughts of Prime Members?
Replies: 80
Views: 8755

Re: Costco vs. Amazon - Thoughts of Prime Members?

I prefer Target for groceries overall, it's the sweet spot for price and quality, excluding veggies. I do shop at both Costco, for certain specific items, and at Whole Foods, for other specific items. I don't see them as direct competition for most of what I buy - Target is cheapest, the other two c...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Financial Advice from Dad (in honor of father's day)
Replies: 78
Views: 5399

Re: Best Financial Advice from Dad (in honor of father's day)

Really mostly frugality, and building assets. He is a terrible investor. Now has all his money in bonds and cds, which I think is best for him. But he was always thinking about building assets, and I got that much from him.
by Portfolio7
Sun Jun 18, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Favorite Portfolio Tilts
Replies: 86
Views: 6851

Re: Your Favorite Portfolio Tilts

Tilting is something I've always done in one respect or another. Currently: 10% of total portfolio in REITs 20% in Vanguard minimum volatility global fund. over-weighted Emerging Markets, with a value component over-weighted international small and mid-cap, with a value component over-weighted US sm...