Search found 285 matches

by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 2431

Re: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?

Not any more. I'm in the accumulation phase. I have come to ascribe to the idea that Fixed Income (FI) should be safe, especially if equity allocation outweighs FI, as mine does (70%). To me that means low chance of default, but also debt where my interests align somewhat with the issuer. Therefore,...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?
Replies: 13
Views: 664

Re: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?

In January of last year there were several indications of long term opportunity: EM and Int P/E were low relative to their individual historical trends, they were low relative to the US compared to their historical trends, they had been depressed for many years, profits appeared to be increasing, a...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?
Replies: 13
Views: 664

Re: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?

Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for long-term tactical asset reallocation for the equity portion of one's portfolio? For instance, are any of you increasing your emerging market exposure while the Schiller P/E is low, with expectations that in a decade or two, you might reduce your emerging mark...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 141
Views: 8115

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

3020.10 I submitted on the official form long ago, didn't realize we were doing it here too. Sometimes I think I have a good feel for where the market is heading. Not this time. I just liked the idea of a 30 a 20 and a 10.
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Edward Jones?
Replies: 25
Views: 3354

Re: Why Edward Jones?

EJ is big and growing, so I expect they will pop up a lot in this sort of discussion. I don't think they last long in that business model unless they're at least a pretty good salesperson. I know a successful advisor at EJ. I like the guy well enough,he's personable and reasonably bright. However, h...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HumbleDollar by Jonathan Clements
Replies: 3
Views: 631

Re: HumbleDollar by Jonathan Clements

I like a good mix of basic and mind-stretching. My list includes Clements at Humble Dollar, A wealth of common sense, Reformed Broker, Dash of Insight (weekend edition posted Sundays), Calafia Beach Pundit (political, but doesn't let it interfere with analysis), Abnormal Returns, Crossing Wall Stree...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 11
Views: 1426

Re: Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel

I've read an earlier edition (3rd?) from the library, and I decided to buy a used edition of the 5th. It's a great reference book, and makes several important points about the character of equity investments. In my opinion there wasn't much in the way of revelatory information included, but the book...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1728
Views: 304893

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

It was a good year in total, but yes, I felt that twinge of regret at the small and value factor drags vs total market returns. That sort of thing never bothers me. Some allocation is going to underperform. It comes with the territory. After all, if they all did the same then tilts wouldn't matter....
by Portfolio7
Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1728
Views: 304893

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I don't track performance, especially of subset of the allocation. There's no value, so why do it? If one is going to do rebalancing, then one is implicitly aware of performance. And if one is going to rebalance between small-cap value and something else like small-cap foreign, then one is going to...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 222
Views: 37291

Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!

1) Right now I'm 100% Stable Value, though 2 years ago I was 100% Intermediate Treasuries. The SV fund yield is 1% higher than Int Trsy's now. 2) I pretty much only have tax-advantaged accounts. 3) About 32% bonds for the year. 4) FI allocation is age less 10-20. depending on how I perceive the mark...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 01, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1728
Views: 304893

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

My returns for 2017 were 15.01%. I finished with 47% US Stocks, 19% International Stocks, and 34% Bonds and cash. A blended index in the same proportions with funds that I already own would have returned 16.39%. I was happy until I saw that I trailed the blended index. I estimated the "factor drag"...
by Portfolio7
Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why did my fund suddenly drop in value?]
Replies: 204
Views: 109681

Re: My Fund is Down?! IT'S DISTRIBUTION TIME!!!

I'd like to see this as a poll: I noticed my fund was down big time, so I (a) Quickly posted to my favorite forums about my huge loss asking "What's up?" (b) Looked at all the other posts about huge one-day drops on my favorite forums and figured it out (c) Looked at my fund's web site and figured ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 4243
Views: 1143669

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Got an exciting new phone notification. A wild downward pointing arrow to inform me VNQ dropped 2%. I was checking it a lot about 1.5 years ago when I was rebalancing my REIT so I guess Google thinks I care about it. No similar exciting numbers for S&P 500 though. Wonder if that is the biggest swin...
by Portfolio7
Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2nd million is easier!
Replies: 123
Views: 23549

Re: 2nd million is easier!

Glad to hear that the second mill goes so much more easily. :beer I have to say that the first half-million is quite a schlep. :( For sure. Took us 11 years to get to $250K of retirement savings. Student loans & DW staying at home with the kids slowed things down for sure, and the dot.com crash sta...
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today's Vinex decline - dividends?
Replies: 6
Views: 796

Re: Today's Vinex decline - dividends?

So, I think this is a newby question of sorts, since I don't normally watch my fund balances daily, but I really appreciate if anyone can confirm what I think is happening. Lately, I've seen large declines in a couple DFA funds (relative to the market), i.e. DFGEX was one last Friday, and then toda...
by Portfolio7
Mon Dec 18, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today's Vinex decline - dividends?
Replies: 6
Views: 796

Today's Vinex decline - dividends?

So, I think this is a newby question of sorts, since I don't normally watch my fund balances daily, but I really appreciate if anyone can confirm what I think is happening. Lately, I've seen large declines in a couple DFA funds (relative to the market), i.e. DFGEX was one last Friday, and then today...
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting sectors, regions and countries? Which ones.
Replies: 14
Views: 947

Re: Tilting sectors, regions and countries? Which ones.

No. I overweight U.S. small value. I overweight international small cap. For simplicity, I actually eliminated international developed large cap, because I didn't see that it added much diversification compared to small cap. I overweight emerging markets. We're 50/50 US/International on equities, w...
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 115
Views: 19842

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

The GB and PP seem to be solid portfolios, but I'd add that in my opinion Gold is not necessary to build a low std deviation portfolio. Take a look at the portfolios below. Which do you like best and why? (I don't know how to paste pics in here so I'm hoping this translates ok when I post it, 1995 ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 115
Views: 19842

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

The GB and PP seem to be solid portfolios, but I'd add that in my opinion Gold is not necessary to build a low std deviation portfolio. Take a look at the portfolios below. Which do you like best and why? (I don't know how to paste pics in here so I'm hoping this translates ok when I post it, 1995 t...
by Portfolio7
Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When asset prices are not driven by earnings growth. Correction? Dip?
Replies: 8
Views: 760

Re: When asset prices are not driven by earnings growth. Correction? Dip?

Corporate profit growth has been tepid by historical bull market standards during the current bull market. Most of the market gains have come from PE multiple expansion. There are reasons why PE might rationally expand: secular low interest rates and low inflation, slow but stable economic and corp...
by Portfolio7
Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 29
Views: 2727

Re: Call the Top!

3232.32

I suspect we have 2 and a half more years of decent returns before the business cycle turns, but I'm far from dogmatic about it.
by Portfolio7
Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 10006

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

At no other time have I had any worry about a significant crash. All that said... I don't feel like there is currently anything much to worry about, but who knows? I don't pretend to be any kind of guru, and I don't have faith I'll predict the next one. I mean, despite a 2 for 2 track record, there...
by Portfolio7
Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone switch brokerage account from Ameriprise or Wells Fargo to Vanguard?
Replies: 10
Views: 1029

Re: Anyone switch brokerage account from Ameriprise or Wells Fargo to Vanguard?

Ameriprise to Fidelity about 2 years ago, if that helps any. I filled out the forms Fidelity asked for, and submitted. Went without a hitch. I would hope it's not any harder to go to Vanguard.
by Portfolio7
Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amount You Need To Save Annually Over Lifespan
Replies: 80
Views: 9057

Re: Amount You Need To Save Annually Over Lifespan

I saved 20% on my first job ($5K out of my $25K salary - though I had to spend it when I was unemployed for 8 months). Once I had a decent job again and access to the 401k I was dropping in 15% immediately and I kick myself for not saving in IRAs aggressively also. What $ amount you end up with is a...
by Portfolio7
Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 10006

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

None. 2000 or earlier, I was too young to understand the market. I was right out of school in 2007 and lucky enough to have a job in 2008 when the market crashed, even luckier I didn't have any money in the market so most of my investing started at the low point. My issue now is my whole investing ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 10006

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

At no other time have I had any worry about a significant crash. All that said... I don't feel like there is currently anything much to worry about, but who knows? I don't pretend to be any kind of guru, and I don't have faith I'll predict the next one. I mean, despite a 2 for 2 track record, there...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How your FA, insurance agent, your community reacts when you show your financial knowledge?
Replies: 39
Views: 4761

Re: How your FA, insurance agent, your community reacts when you show your financial knowledge?

Sandtrap wrote:
Mon Nov 27, 2017 2:05 am
Thus there is nobody to share my recent understanding of "funded ratio". :(
I share your pain. I've been working on my funded ratio, built a chart that's really now downlevel, need to spend time to update it. It's fun. But I don't really have anyone to talk to about it in person.
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 10006

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

Hmm. This may sound self serving, but it is what it is. In any case, I'm not wise, maybe got a bit lucky and borrowed some decent insights. In Jan of 2000 I was convinced it was a matter of time before the market took a big dive. In particular there were multiple articles discussing the valuation is...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1728
Views: 304893

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

TSP says 19.63% YTD or last 12 mo., which is surprising since its about 15% bonds. Vanguard I have no idea. Does anyone know how to check? I couldn't find this info. That doesn't sound unreasonable. I'm up about 16-17% vs a year ago (about 14% YTD as of this past weekend) and I'm 32% fixed income o...
by Portfolio7
Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you do right?
Replies: 96
Views: 9696

Re: What did you do right?

* Went to a public school and earned a partial scholarship. This was a good investment in myself. * At age 23 I'd saved $5K in my emergency fund. Then I lost my job for 8 months and spent it all while finding another. Then I got a third, better job. * I started saving in my 401K at age 27. Age 25 wo...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 up 1.85% in first four days of 2017
Replies: 13
Views: 2499

Re: S&P 500 up 1.85% in first four days of 2017

Trying to remember my guess for the S&P at years end=- does anyone remember the name of the post where we guessed? https://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/contest/default.aspx Yesterday I was in first place for a matter of minutes, I believe :( ! But I did say I'd be fine with losing if the market ende...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side
Replies: 40
Views: 2600

Re: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side

Generally, yes, thought I think the word 'only' may be a bit problematic? It might be better to say that the FI portion of your portfolio is devoted to capital preservation, and the equity side to return? I'm not sure how best to think of it. Swenson wrote about this too, and pretty well convinced m...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you keep anything in your portfolio as a monument to your bad decisions?
Replies: 69
Views: 5268

Re: Do you keep anything in your portfolio as a monument to your bad decisions?

When I first moved to snow country I ended up putting my car in a ditch because I was impatient and didn't wait for my windshield to fully defrost, and with low visibility simply realized I had left the pavement too late. No harm done as I was moving very slowly, but my license plate holder got a li...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 4243
Views: 1143669

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

It feels like a consolidation. A few folks taking profits, a few sharp drops, and more likely than not this just trails out over a few weeks before everyone settles down from the November jitters. Then you get the Christmas boost and we hit 2595 on the S&P and I will have I used all my luck for the ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6662

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I think that would be silly. No one should bet against the U.S. Which country do you think has accounted for the bulk of genuine business innovation in the last decade? Which do you think will account for the bulk of genuine business innovation going forward? +1 If I take this statement to mean any...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 13961

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

Hi Bob, thanks for this great piece! I ran an initial calculation, just to see what it looked like, and now I'm trying to make sure I'm not making stupid mistakes in my calculations. I'm 50 years old and hope I'm roughly 12 years from retirement. I calculated the percentage of current savings vs the...
by Portfolio7
Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Personal Black Swan
Replies: 46
Views: 6089

Re: The Personal Black Swan

While we are talking about "diversification" do some of you own funds from more than one company. I have assets at several custodians, but not for any of the reasons expressed here. DW & I own Vanguard and DFA funds, primarily. We also have a few small etfs from other companies. Virtually all of it...
by Portfolio7
Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6662

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

Caduceus wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:07 am
I think that would be silly. No one should bet against the U.S.

Which country do you think has accounted for the bulk of genuine business innovation in the last decade? Which do you think will account for the bulk of genuine business innovation going forward?
+1
by Portfolio7
Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6662

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

Are you a betting man (or woman)? I am ok with a tilt towards Int'l, but only with about 10-15% of my portfolio. S&P is also up 15% this year. You're not tilting towards int'l, you're tilting away from int'l and strongly towards US. (Today, int'l is 47.6% of world market.) Sorry to confuse you, I c...
by Portfolio7
Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Next Bear Market, Ben Carlson
Replies: 13
Views: 2226

Re: The Next Bear Market, Ben Carlson

Ben has been posting solid material for years. His older blog posts are also worth perusal.
by Portfolio7
Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6662

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

Are you a betting man (or woman)?

I am ok with a tilt towards Int'l, but only with about 10-15% of my portfolio. S&P is also up 15% this year.
by Portfolio7
Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 260
Views: 35765

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

Calais, this is interesting. I hope it's ok to throw in my 2 cents, with both observations and questions: - I tilt to small cap due to historical risk/return trends and academic analysis of those trends and my assessment of their sustainability, not due to valuations. Valuations are tricky. I don't ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"
Replies: 69
Views: 9283

Re: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"

I agree with the several posts that 100% fixed income fails to minimize risk. I forget the source, but I've read that your AA should vary between 75/25 and 25/75. I think that's directionally correct, but the conclusion I came to after playing with all sorts of potential allocations is that anything...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "$1 Million is Closer Than You Think"
Replies: 54
Views: 9837

Re: "$1 Million is Closer Than You Think"

Actually, I would hope there is another critical message conveyed by the interactive ad: That it actually is possible to build a million dollar nest egg without super-human abilities . That's the message I wish I had heard when I was younger, and it's one I've heard over and over again from many ot...
by Portfolio7
Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 39
Views: 3160

Re: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing

I admire Gibson's observation, but you can't just slap 10 asset classes together and hope it all works out. There are a lot of portfolios where the parts don't play so well together, no potential advantage over a 3 fund portfolio, plenty of potential disadvantage. I think to take advantage of this i...
by Portfolio7
Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth IRA for children
Replies: 38
Views: 2862

Re: Roth IRA for children

Another Fidelity user here. My oldest has special needs, so that's a different discussion altogether. My youngest had his first job at age 15 and made almost $2,000. I told him if he put 50% into a Roth IRA, we'd match it. Free money. He got that pretty quick and went all in. So we went down to Fide...
by Portfolio7
Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Investors really underperform their investments
Replies: 45
Views: 4075

Re: Do Investors really underperform their investments

Chip wrote:
Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:12 am
It's mentioned in Pfau's article, but let's remember that it was Bogleheads member tfb (Harry Sit - The Finance Buff) who first explored the problems with Dalbar's calculations and conclusions.
Chip, I wanted to thank you for this :beer :beer :beer ; I hadn't realized.
by Portfolio7
Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Investors really underperform their investments
Replies: 45
Views: 4075

Re: Do Investors really underperform their investments

One correlary to the DALBAR findings, at least one that occurred to me, is that they would appear to validate the AUM advisor model. If you pay an advisor 1%, but your returns are ~ 4% better because you didn't make all those behavioral errors, aren't you better off by 3%? This presupposes that the...
by Portfolio7
Wed Oct 25, 2017 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NASDAQ as a significant portfolio component?
Replies: 29
Views: 1900

Re: NASDAQ as a significant portfolio component?

At least with regard to the thread mentioning the QQQ ETF, it is Technology, Consumer Cyclical, and Healthcare "heavy": My particular Asset Allocation appears to be light on Tech and Healthcare vs the total market sector weighting (I write 'appears' because some of my portfolio funds are proprietar...
by Portfolio7
Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Investors really underperform their investments
Replies: 45
Views: 4075

Re: Do Investors really underperform their investments

As far as precious metals funds, I have taken a good hard look but didn't buy in because of their poor long term records. I see them more as portfolio insurance, I didn't want to pay the premium. Definitely agree they aren't necessary, but I find it funny when posts start to pop up about adding to ...