Search found 132 matches

by Portfolio7
Mon May 22, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?
Replies: 133
Views: 15704

Re: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?

Sans gifts/inheritances, this is really a measure of how long a person has been investing, since as the length of time of investment gets large: the numerator is exponential in time, and the denominator is linear in time. Eventually this would surpass any fixed percentage. That makes a lot of sense...
by Portfolio7
Fri May 19, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Milestone and not peeking. . .
Replies: 47
Views: 4243

Re: Milestone and not peeking. . .

Congratulations! I'm 50, and last year was the second year that our returns exceeded my entire salary (the first being 2013). That is a good feeling. I'm looking forward to when our returns exceed our combined salaries, whenever that may happen. Our AA has been all over the place over roughly 22 yea...
by Portfolio7
Fri May 19, 2017 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A daily panic on the averages a day or two ago
Replies: 11
Views: 1096

Re: A daily panic on the averages a day or two ago

I have a tiny IRA, (my play money) <1% of my portfolio, that's 100% in ILF ... so when Brazil plunged 10% and they stopped trading, I was moderately bummed. However, it's back up a healthy amount today. It seems that nothing bad can stick in this market. The headlines were interesting though, even f...
by Portfolio7
Wed May 10, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mental accounting: Tool? Crutch? Or no big deal?
Replies: 16
Views: 901

Re: Mental accounting: Tool? Crutch? Or no big deal?

My personal view is that mental accounting is just fine as a stopgap measure where time is limited and you aren't making any critical decisions. Where I think it causes trouble is when it serves as the basis for ongoing decisions. I think every aspect of your portfolio and retirement plan should be ...
by Portfolio7
Wed May 10, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1332
Views: 224777

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I like to compare my portfolio to benchmarks in order to see that I am not hurting myself with behavioral finance errors. I like to read this thread because it shows that people often don't have a legitimate calculation for YTD of their portfolio. Often they report for a single account such as a Ro...
by Portfolio7
Wed May 10, 2017 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1332
Views: 224777

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I guess this is a test of how Bogle-ish you really are. Or, it could be a reflection of how well you know yourself, and your tendency to jump ship. I am a 'tracker', I know I'm up about 6.7% YTD as of May 10th 2017, with a 70/30 portfolio at age 50. Slice and dice portfolio with value and size tilts...
by Portfolio7
Mon May 08, 2017 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 5572

Re: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio

Excellent discussion -- thanks to all for very informative and interesting posts! Finding this thread was awesome since I just started rethinking my bond allocation (40% of portfolio) and was struggling with what % should be allocated to stable value. Portfolio7 - any new thoughts? Dionysius, misse...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio
Replies: 202
Views: 15010

Re: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio

I'm at about 37 basis points now on a slice and dice portfolio, which is slightly higher than the e/r for my stable value fund (fixed income), and also near the average of my dfa and vanguard mix of equities. Plan fees are a couple basis points, and included in that total. If I went from Stable Valu...
by Portfolio7
Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking in real vs. nominal
Replies: 46
Views: 3113

Re: Thinking in real vs. nominal

I think in real terms because that's what's going to matter. What matters is not the number in your account, what matters is your buying power . This is completely true. But what actionable steps does one take to embrace this? As an example, let's say I plan to buy a new Mustang convertible in ten ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Transfer to Fidelity for Sign on Bonus?
Replies: 30
Views: 2701

Re: Transfer to Fidelity for Sign on Bonus?

If it's the same promo I'm familiar with, then, the 'up to $2500' is doled out as a percentage of new contributions. They don't just hand it to you. Unless it's something different than I've seen (I just transferred a few old accounts to Fidelity last year, and this promo has been around for a while...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 19, 2017 1:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: value of stock options
Replies: 30
Views: 2021

Re: value of stock options

I'm no expert, but there are apparently many studies on this thorny question. Articles I've read indicate that they tend to agree you should wait until the last possible moment before expiration. There are a lot of great comments above about taking into account your personal situation. You can also ...
by Portfolio7
Sat Apr 15, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Portfolio Tilt
Replies: 18
Views: 1989

Re: International Portfolio Tilt

As a US resident only, in recent years, I've followed Larry Swedroe's recommendation to start with world market AA (46% int'l at present) and then increase a little to 50% to acknowledge present lower int'l valuations. He doesn't recommend going over 50% int'l unless you live part-time overseas. Bu...
by Portfolio7
Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?
Replies: 133
Views: 15704

Re: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?

I ran a very simple analysis with the following assumptions. I was just curious how it mapped: Starting Age 25 Savings/Investment rate = 15% (Can be going into Equities, Bonds, Real Estate, Individual Business, any non-depreciable asset Returns: Market-like with 80/20 Portfolio, 10% and 6% for Equit...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 12, 2017 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth IRA - Using Risk to Grow the Pie
Replies: 30
Views: 2909

Re: Roth IRA - Using Risk to Grow the Pie

My 2 cents, fwiw: If I had a good idea for a business, that would be my first choice. If not, then I think I'd want to use a deceptively simple and aggressive investment portfolio such as: Small Cap Value 20% REIT 20% Intl Small Cap Stocks 20% Emerging Markets 20% Long Term Treasuries 20% The mix of...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 10, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Problem with Portfolio Visualizer
Replies: 3
Views: 631

Re: Problem with Portfolio Visualizer

I'd throw a few bucks to this worthy cause. The tool itself is not only very flexible and useful, it is a great public service that the owner provides it for free.
by Portfolio7
Thu Apr 06, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Secretly entered two comma club
Replies: 44
Views: 7003

Re: Secretly entered two comma club

Well, you should at least give into your wife on the kindergarten issue. Well, there is a difference between balance sheet and statement of cash flows for a reason. Just because your house has equity and your retirement accounts are funded does not mean you have the cash flow to pay for private. Bu...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 05, 2017 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Use Debt Instead Of Cash/Fixed Income In Asset Allocation?
Replies: 15
Views: 1722

Re: Use Debt Instead Of Cash/Fixed Income In Asset Allocation?

I subscribe to a variation of this idea while in the accumulation phase. All of my investments are in tax advantaged accounts. I have nothing in the way of taxable investments and I don't really have an emergency fund per se. I use all excess funds to pay down debt. I have a HELOC in place and acce...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 05, 2017 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remembering the Crash of 1987
Replies: 66
Views: 6488

Re: Remembering the Crash of 1987

I remember my dad's advisor had told him to get out about 2 weeks before, and so he didn't lose a whole lot. My dad was pretty happy with his advisor. No moral to the story. I was in my sophomore year of college, and remember wishing I had some money, any money, to put in the market. I was definite...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 05, 2017 1:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remembering the Crash of 1987
Replies: 66
Views: 6488

Re: Remembering the Crash of 1987

I remember my dad's advisor had told him to get out about 2 weeks before, and so he didn't lose a whole lot. My dad was pretty happy with his advisor. No moral to the story. I was in my sophomore year of college, and remember wishing I had some money, any money, to put in the market. I was definitel...
by Portfolio7
Tue Apr 04, 2017 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security for Millennials
Replies: 144
Views: 13954

Re: Social Security for Millennials

I have a question that I hope is demographic and not political: I'm in Generation X, which is a relatively small generation sandwiched between two huge generations (Baby Boomers and Millennials). If Social Security survives the Baby Boomers, won't it be in pretty good shape for Generation X (becaus...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- First quarter leaders
Replies: 15
Views: 1850

Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- First quarter leaders

Congrats to the top 10! But I'm on your tail - #462 and climbing!
by Portfolio7
Sat Mar 25, 2017 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]
Replies: 23
Views: 2051

Re: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]

Interesting series of articles to read. Newbie question based on the articles: Because the largest CAP "domestic" USA corporations naturally expand globally, IE: Apple, etc. then shouldn't that mean that there is already an increasing "tilt" toward "international" in o...
by Portfolio7
Sat Mar 25, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?
Replies: 133
Views: 15704

Re: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?

Whoops, I had an estimate in my data that overstated and skewed the data relative to this calculation, since it was intended for something else originally. Recalc, age 27 to age 50 below, (50 being 2017 partial), puts us at 50% as of March 2017, more in avg Boglehead territory. Geez, the impact of t...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Justification for Adding REITs
Replies: 77
Views: 6315

Re: Justification for Adding REITs

Rick Ferri wrote in All About Asset Allocation 2nd edition that most real estate is privately held - not publicly held by corporations. Thus real estate makes up a disproportionate share of the economy than what it is represented in TSM. I think (and it has been a few years since I read it) that it...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 23, 2017 3:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them
Replies: 103
Views: 6790

Re: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them

6% EM Value, 6% EM. 12% of 70% equities, so about 17% of my equity portfolio is EM. I would normally have that at 10%P/14%EQ, but It is purposely tilted modestly, on which seems justified by valuations, but I'm not being all scientific and such... no matter how many calculations I do, the answers wi...
by Portfolio7
Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?
Replies: 133
Views: 15704

Re: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?

So, this is kind of interesting. Since I track that information already, in the form specified, I just had to divide the income by NW for each year to get 23 years worth of data. I won't claim the data is perfect, but it's calculated consistently, and covers from Age 27 to Age 49. We just jumped to ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?
Replies: 76
Views: 8849

Re: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?

I am new to everything so please excuse my ignorance if this is silly, but shouldn't tech be a good investment? Robots are getting more sophisticated and self-driving cars are only a few years out. I expect both of these to upset the labor market. So does everyone else, which means it's already pri...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's on other side of the low volatility trade-surprising answer
Replies: 6
Views: 799

Re: Whose on other side of the low volatility trade-surprising answer

I read this article some days past, forget when, but it is a useful perspective. It's helpful to remember that really, after you strip away talk of probabilities and risk and return, that nobody really knows anything; it's all an educated guess, even when there are a lot of numbers behind it. I real...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment books I have read.
Replies: 55
Views: 11000

Re: Investment books I have read.

Hi, That is an impressive list and certainly will use it to drive my reading. One question however... Did any book really challenge your thinking. I want to hear what people have to say to this, great question. For me, Ken Fisher (Three Things) is one example where reading someone I don't really ag...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment books I have read.
Replies: 55
Views: 11000

Re: Investment books I have read.

Great list, thanks for posting! I have a stack of these in my reading 'in box'. It's tough to pick out a single book that influenced me most when it comes to a buy and hold and rebalance strategy with low cost index funds, because there are many good and strong influences, including certain blogs an...
by Portfolio7
Wed Mar 15, 2017 2:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?
Replies: 85
Views: 6193

Re: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?

Fwiw (I hope the formatting holds when I post!). The Simba spreadsheet seems to point to over 2 points of outperformance vs the three fund portfolio, for slightly less down side risk (if that's what down SD is telling me.) However, the last 30 years suggest maybe the spread has narrowed (?) to about...
by Portfolio7
Wed Mar 15, 2017 2:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock exchange sizes - are your allocation close to this
Replies: 12
Views: 1058

Re: Stock exchange sizes - are your allocation close to this

My portfolio closely resembles what is available for a US invester. I'm about 52% US 48% Int'l. Usually I am about 58%/42%, but given 10 year projections for the US Market and comparative valuations I am a little heavier in international/EM than usual. I don't believe in big swings in my portfolio, ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Mar 15, 2017 1:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DALBAR report methodological flaws - Prof. Pfau
Replies: 29
Views: 2572

Re: DALBAR report methodological flaws - Prof. Pfau

I had noticed that estimates of investor underperformance vs the funds they invested in seemed to range from as low as 1% to as high as 5%, depending on what studies you happened to look at. Given the number of buy and hold (or buy and forget) 401k investors, the larger estimates seemed questionable...
by Portfolio7
Fri Mar 10, 2017 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Resource to Introduce the Idea that Past Returns do not Indicate Better Funds
Replies: 20
Views: 1241

Re: Best Resource to Introduce the Idea that Past Returns do not Indicate Better Funds

IMHO, I'd want the lowest cost fund that is closest to it's benchmark. For example, in a Small Cap Value fund, I want a fund that hews closest to the SC Value benchmark with the lowest cost. This is especially true for a core fund like a TSM fund, S&P500 Fund, or Large Cap Blend Fund. If their p...
by Portfolio7
Fri Mar 03, 2017 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 1833

Re: madsinger monthly report (February 2017)

LPSpecial wrote:Thank you for providing this service. I always look forward to your reports.

LPSpecial :happy


+1
by Portfolio7
Tue Feb 28, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?
Replies: 117
Views: 11445

Re: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?

As per all the indications that I can see, the economy is in chaos. KlangFool What indications are you referring to? Earnings are doing well. Interest rates are still low. Unemployment and inflation are low. Regulatory requirements are being relaxed. Corporate taxes are expected to be reduced. Comp...
by Portfolio7
Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett chides his students for charging too much
Replies: 3
Views: 1524

Re: Buffett chides his students for charging too much

Even folks with a very high IQ can walk right into the high-fee-web of the not-a-fiduciary advisor. I certainly did, and I'm no slouch in that dept. I knew some things to watch for, but I didn't understand all the permutatations of hidden fees that exist. The advisor wasn't a bad guy, either... he k...
by Portfolio7
Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio
Replies: 202
Views: 15010

Re: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio

25 Bpts = 22 Bpts weighted average of all funds + 3 Bpts Plan fee. I was around 30 Bpts recently until I dropped my small cap DFA Fund and replaced it with Vanguard. I have 4 International DFA Funds that increase the average expense ratio, otherwise the fees would be roughly half of what they are. ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Run Ups - Now vs. Then
Replies: 88
Views: 6424

Re: Market Run Ups - Now vs. Then

Feels different to me. Where's the exuberance? It was palpable in 2000 and 2008. All I've ever seen for this run up has been "meh". I mean I could see a market correction, but a crash? Sure it could happen but nothing about this run up says people are overconfident or greedy like the last...
by Portfolio7
Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Run Ups - Now vs. Then
Replies: 88
Views: 6424

Re: Market Run Ups - Now vs. Then

Feels different to me. Where's the exuberance? It was palpable in 2000 and 2008. All I've ever seen for this run up has been "meh". I mean I could see a market correction, but a crash? Sure it could happen but nothing about this run up says people are overconfident or greedy like the last...
by Portfolio7
Wed Feb 22, 2017 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A note of caution from Robert Shiller
Replies: 66
Views: 10253

Re: A note of caution from Robert Shiller

I really don't share the worries, and I rode out 2000-2 and 2008 so I know what it feels like. Cape is a single metric, no more. There are many metrics pointing the other direction. Maybe you don't really have faith in the power of a diversified portfolio to rebound from a recession? Re-reading Bogl...
by Portfolio7
Tue Feb 21, 2017 3:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think some criticisim of active management is wrong.
Replies: 22
Views: 2237

Re: I think some criticisim of active management is wrong.

I have a couple active funds, and I still dislike what American does. I can't benchmark them. I suspect I'll do better in my mostly index funds tilted how I want, and a couple semi-active funds that really are just tilting the way I want my portfolio to tilt. American could mess up my AA exposing me...
by Portfolio7
Tue Feb 21, 2017 3:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Could Stop Vanguard From World Domination? - Article by Ben Carlson
Replies: 19
Views: 2815

Re: What Could Stop Vanguard From World Domination? - Article by Ben Carlson

All our investment vehicles are at Fidelity. My AA is consistent, but funds/etfs have changed as I become less convinced of some other fund families. We have a couple 401k and several IRA accounts, t and r for both of us. At this point our funds/etfs are about 60% Vanguard, 25% DFA, 8% Fidelity, 8% ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Feb 21, 2017 3:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price
Replies: 59
Views: 5007

Re: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price

A University of Michigan study back around 2012/2013 analyzed Bank oil price Forecasts, NY Merc, industry assessments, EIA, and one other model I believe. They determined that oil futures show "no evidence of significant forecast accuracy gains at shorter horizons, and at the long horizons of i...
by Portfolio7
Mon Feb 20, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much do small speculators underperform by?
Replies: 8
Views: 860

Re: How much do small speculators underperform by?

Are you talking investors, speculators or both? It seems like most speculators don't last long, and haven't seen any self-reported data that I trust. Even getting the data for regular retirement investors seems pretty difficult. Most articles on the topic are pretty limited in scope. It's Vanguard a...
by Portfolio7
Fri Feb 17, 2017 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Advisors and their fund picks
Replies: 10
Views: 1144

Re: Financial Advisors and their fund picks

I don't see it the same way as most of these posts seem to suggest. Some segments of the market have historically higher returns, as well as higher risks. Someone who 'tilts' to SCV, for example, is attempting to pull in a little extra return. The trade-off for higher return is typically higher risk...
by Portfolio7
Fri Feb 17, 2017 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 1771

Re: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?

Scubadiver, your history look very representative. We really started 1995/96, you ramped up a bit faster and invested more over time (especially recently.) Our numbers are about 80% of yours, and the difference is our business & a home we helped family with. If we sold the business and home toda...
by Portfolio7
Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3511
Views: 904555

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Nice! Your return would make Dave Ramsey proud. That's a 60/40 retired portfolio; the S&P total return for one year is 24.89%. The only way to lose money is to let Jones do the "investing. Ok, you made me look :shock: . My portfolio has been in transition from 70/30 to 65/35, but still ret...
by Portfolio7
Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is American funds returns too good to be true?
Replies: 45
Views: 5321

Re: Why is American funds returns too good to be true?

American Funds has a pretty decent industry rep if you can get in without paying the ridiculous load and or fees. I believe they probably do have true alpha. I also believe they tilt a fair amount, so the Index benchmarks are often not apples to apples. Survivorship bias may be at play too. My wife ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 20 year average versus median
Replies: 3
Views: 395

Re: 20 year average versus median

I admit I question a lot of these studies about average investor returns :?: . A lot of people just drop $ into their retirement accounts and ignore it. Maybe fewer than I think, but it seems to me a lot of people just let it ride... and yes, I personally have some play accounts, very small money, w...

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