Search found 496 matches

by Orion
Thu Nov 03, 2016 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why can't stocks be deterministically/objectively/mechanically priced?
Replies: 75
Views: 3769

Re: Why can't stocks be deterministically/objectively/mechanically priced?

If I told you that I had computed the proper price of gasoline and it turns out to be $20/gallon, would you buy my gas or would you tell me I'm nuts because there are people ignoring my calculation and selling it for a tenth of that? If you try to set a price and people don't perceive it to be "...
by Orion
Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Gravy Train Departed?
Replies: 72
Views: 10152

Re: The Gravy Train Departed?

That would be helpful if I was a millennial. Classifying anyone born in the 80's as a millennial is wrong and degrading. I refuse to be compared to the generation of today. I was chased around my house with a belt, I had to sit in timeout, and I never touched a computer when I got home from school....
by Orion
Tue Jan 12, 2016 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How common is this [Have more money 10+ years into retirement]
Replies: 72
Views: 10027

Re: How common is this [Have more money 10+ years into retirement]

I retired in 2000 (which I've occasionally seen referred to as possibly the new worst time to retire for long term returns) but I'm up in nominal and real dollars. Some things that helped: I retired early and have a "optimistic" (or worst case financially) outlook on longevity so I used a ...
by Orion
Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking "Differently" about Dividend Yield
Replies: 5
Views: 1047

Re: Thinking "Differently" about Dividend Yield

I have TIPS paying in the 3 to 4% (real) range if I base it on when I bought them. And I feel good about that, but I wouldn't use that to decide whether they're the best thing to have right now.
by Orion
Thu Aug 27, 2015 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are you being GREEDY when others are fearful?
Replies: 85
Views: 13558

Re: How are you being GREEDY when others are fearful?

I heard there was something going on in the market so I looked and see that it went down a little and then went back up a little. So I guess I'd be worried about being too late to be greedy if it weren't for the fact that it never dropped far enough to trigger my greed alarm in the first place. So I...
by Orion
Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it actually impossible to time market crashes?
Replies: 56
Views: 4560

Re: Is it actually impossible to time market crashes?

I've gotten pretty lucky with timing twice (I'm now in my mid-50s.) In 2000, I got out just at the right time (based on my holdings then.) Basically I was nervous from about 1996 onward, and got out in 2000 largely because I had reached "enough" for my personal needs rather than knowledge ...
by Orion
Fri Feb 20, 2015 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO THE BOGLEHEADS FORUM
Replies: 30
Views: 3285

Re: HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO THE BOGLEHEADS FORUM

Thank you to the creators and maintainers of this wonderful forum!
by Orion
Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?
Replies: 37
Views: 3322

Re: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?

The (added) risk may or may not show up over any specific time period, but the added expense will show up for sure. As a result, for some/many/most people, it might make sense to have them invest in a target date retirement fund in their 401k even if the expense ratios a higher, if that means that t...
by Orion
Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?
Replies: 37
Views: 3322

Re: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?

It's true that you can take more risks to have a chance at buying more tacos. At the expense of possibly buying far fewer tacos of course. You could adjust that risk yourself without paying a fund manager - for example I would think that selecting a cheap single country emerging market ETF should gi...
by Orion
Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I know when I'm Financially Independent?
Replies: 18
Views: 3950

Re: How do I know when I'm Financially Independent?

Agreed - when you start with an assumption of annual expenses that are about 5 times the US median household income, and then you run Firecalc and it says things are fine, I wouldn't be too worried. Of course, if you have medical conditions, a big dependent family, or other things that make $150K a ...
by Orion
Mon Jan 05, 2015 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Value of Nest Egg
Replies: 24
Views: 2311

Re: Real Value of Nest Egg

The 4% rule is from history so it is a number that has survived the great depression, stagflation, etc. But whether it will survive "whatever comes next" will never be known. I think you have to go with your own sense of optimism or pessimism to some extent. I use a spreadsheet form of the...
by Orion
Sun Dec 14, 2014 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Mutual Funds
Replies: 42
Views: 3578

Re: TIPS Mutual Funds

My impression is that a fair number of TIPS holders engage in market timing. I guess I would be one of those. I'm thinking about selling a bunch of TIPS, not because I think TIPS are so "bad" now but rather due to heavily loading up on long TIPS in 2008 when the rates hit 3%. Now I have a...
by Orion
Thu Dec 11, 2014 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Split Assets Between Two Firms?
Replies: 30
Views: 3396

Re: Split Assets Between Two Firms?

A few years back my credit card was rejected. So I called in and found out the reason: They had no customer with my name. No customer at my address. No customer with my phone number. No card issued with the number on my card. And that's as far as I could get on the phone. So I went to the local bran...
by Orion
Wed Apr 16, 2014 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please Help me understand 3-fund portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 4673

Re: Please Help me understand 3-fund portfolio

Do people use the 3 fund portfolio because two funds (listed above) are expected to increase if one fund were to fall (for example, if the US Stock Market drops by 30%, do people expect the Bond Fund & International Funds to improve in value?). This sounds closer to the idea behind the "Pe...
by Orion
Tue Mar 18, 2014 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is yield on cost (YOC) a useful metric?
Replies: 36
Views: 1774

Re: Is yield on cost (YOC) a useful metric?

One thing to be careful of is that in dividend-oriented forums, you'll see some people throw around great-sounding YOCs or personal yields in much the same way that some people on stock-picking forums always seem to have bought stocks at their bottoms. ie: the numbers seem awfully good but can you r...
by Orion
Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An 8% SWR ???
Replies: 12
Views: 2349

Re: An 8% SWR ???

That article is too vague to really calculate an SWR. First it makes an assumption that you only need 80% of your final salary, which drops you to a 6-7% SWR and based on googling the 11 times salary rule of thumb comment, that rule assumes some amount of your income will be taken care of by social ...
by Orion
Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in stocks--A surprising Google report ?
Replies: 37
Views: 4656

Re: Investing in stocks--A surprising Google report ?

I replaced "stocks" in these searches with "potatoes" and the made money results were more than twice the lost money results.
by Orion
Wed Feb 26, 2014 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation question
Replies: 30
Views: 3008

Re: Inflation question

I started to reply that the whole "printing money" thing seems to be one of those simple catch phrases that people use to make an argument that doesn't necessarily correlate to the real world, but then I noticed how old the thread was and caught myself, but then since you're bumping it up ...
by Orion
Thu Feb 20, 2014 4:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using Windows XP after 4/8 voids Vg's reimbursement pledge
Replies: 33
Views: 2277

Re: Using Windows XP after 4/8 voids Vg's reimbursement pled

My previous employer (fortune 500 company) is still on XP because as their head of IT told us, it's more secure than anything that's followed it. Did anyone ever challenge him on this? I'm no security expert but I just googled: windows xp vs windows 7 security and looked at the links on the first p...
by Orion
Thu Feb 20, 2014 4:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using Windows XP after 4/8 voids Vg's reimbursement pledge
Replies: 33
Views: 2277

Re: Using Windows XP after 4/8 voids Vg's reimbursement pled

Knowing what big companies are like, I would bet a nickel that Microsoft itself has some mission-critical corporate applications that are running on XP and are difficult to migrate. There are many systems like this in the world. I know of one system that has been running since the 1970s. But most o...
by Orion
Thu Feb 20, 2014 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using Windows XP after 4/8 voids Vg's reimbursement pledge
Replies: 33
Views: 2277

Re: Using Windows XP after 4/8 voids Vg's reimbursement pled

By the way some browsers allow the user to enter the agent string of their choice (ie: browser name/version, OS) and some browsers default to sending something that isn't accurate, so I wouldn't make security overly dependent on a claimed browser/OS.
by Orion
Thu Feb 20, 2014 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using Windows XP after 4/8 voids Vg's reimbursement pledge
Replies: 33
Views: 2277

Re: Using Windows XP after 4/8 voids Vg's reimbursement pled

Not to mention that Microsoft announced a month ago that they were extending security support until July 2015. As far as I can tell, updates to XP still stop 4/8/2014. The only thing extended to 2015 is antimalware signatures: Microsoft has announced the Windows XP end of support date of April 8, 2...
by Orion
Fri Jan 31, 2014 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you use Penfed?
Replies: 24
Views: 3150

Re: How do you use Penfed?

They still haven't responded to my emails of the 29th, so I've decided to pass on this for now. If they have good rates in future and they can eventually fix my account, or send me a piece of paper documenting that I have an account, then I may reconsider.
by Orion
Thu Jan 30, 2014 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you use Penfed?
Replies: 24
Views: 3150

Re: How do you use Penfed?

And maybe you aren't aware, Penfed had a security breach a couple of years and tried to sweep it under the rug. I was not. Thank you. Yesterday, someone from Penfed IT left a message on my home phone. He said to call customer support and he had left notes on my account about what to do. So I called...
by Orion
Thu Jan 30, 2014 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New PenFed CD rates!
Replies: 313
Views: 43919

Re: New PenFed CD rates!

Pen Fed's website is currently not accessible because too many people are trying to beat the clock. I had no trouble getting to their homepage, but got error out repeatedly when I tried to login. Did that just start today? I've been getting errors like "your request did not complete/you have b...
by Orion
Wed Jan 29, 2014 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you use Penfed?
Replies: 24
Views: 3150

How do you use Penfed?

I succumbed to all the talk here about Penfed and I sent in a paper application a little over 3 weeks ago. (Their mail address should be over-night from here.) After about 4 days I started getting emails telling me I should confirm/make settings via my on-line account. I waited a few more days expec...
by Orion
Thu Jan 23, 2014 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Website
Replies: 18
Views: 1625

Re: Berkshire Website

Not bad. No javascript, no popups, nothing zooming in from the sides of the screens, nothing you have to close to get to the actual information. It even worked the same in a couple of different browsers that I tried. The HTML is fairly clean and simple but passing it through an HTML validator does s...
by Orion
Wed Jan 22, 2014 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New PenFed CD rates!
Replies: 313
Views: 43919

Re: New PenFed CD rates!

I applied to penfed via (paper) mail. I've been receiving emails that imply that I've been accepted, but they say things like: Please note: you will need your member number and security code to complete this process. If you do not have your member number or security code yet, please contact a member...
by Orion
Mon Jan 20, 2014 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deferred Income Annuity/Longevity Insurance
Replies: 42
Views: 4192

Re: Deferred Income Annuity/Longevity Insurance

If those medical breakthroughs happen, then conventional withdrawal strategies are in trouble too as most are designed for fixed terms that currently seem reasonable/conservative. Of course, insurance companies don't like to loose money, so I would assume some estimated (possibly over-estimated for ...
by Orion
Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A thought on net worth 'skewedness'
Replies: 53
Views: 4244

Re: A thought on net worth 'skewedness'

I've been a B since some time in my 30s or 40s. I was more A-like in earlier years. People around me seem, on average, more A-like than I am. Maybe B is a Boglehead tendency? Or maybe it's age? When I was 30, car dealers seem to be very surprised at me paying cash for cars. In my 50s, they seem to e...
by Orion
Fri May 31, 2013 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Total International Bond Fund is open
Replies: 88
Views: 15173

Re: VG Total International Bond Fund is open

It's nice to have options in international bond funds with low expense ratios, but... opened today. I haven't managed to find a yield, a duration, holdings... Not much to go on so far.
by Orion
Sat Mar 09, 2013 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High minimum investment indicator of good fund?
Replies: 7
Views: 711

Re: High minimum investment indicator of good fund?

I believe hedge funds tend to have high minimum investments and have not performed that well.
by Orion
Sat Mar 09, 2013 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: So how long will I live? How long do I plan for?
Replies: 55
Views: 5121

Re: So how long will I live? How long do I plan for?

For SWR purposes, I like to see 100% success to age 95, and at least 40-50% success to age 105. If I had a family history of shorter lives, or any known serious medical conditions, then I might use other ages.
by Orion
Wed Mar 06, 2013 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Static SWR rate?
Replies: 15
Views: 879

Re: Static SWR rate?

I suppose a better way to ask the question would be, what static percentage could one take from their portfolio annually and have a low risk of the portfolio being depleted? i.e start off with 1 million and 40 years from now still have somewhere around the 40 year inflation adjusted equivalent to t...
by Orion
Wed Mar 06, 2013 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ article on "The 4% Rule" Here is the link.
Replies: 66
Views: 15501

Re: WSJ article on "The 4% Rule" Here is the link.

Seems it makes a difference in a safe withdrawl rate I don't think it's the SWR that changes. SWR studies always assume that taxes are one of your many expenses. Determining how much of it goes to taxes has always been left as an exercise for the reader. Of course, this exercise is somewhere betwee...
by Orion
Tue Mar 05, 2013 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Static SWR rate?
Replies: 15
Views: 879

Re: Static SWR rate?

It's an interesting question because no percentage takes you to zero, but it's obvious that some percentages quickly lead to "uncomfortable" numbers. But the "uncomfortable" numbers come from roughly the original withdrawal style assumption. ie: there this is some amount of money...
by Orion
Tue Mar 05, 2013 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Static SWR rate?
Replies: 15
Views: 879

Re: Static SWR rate?

It seems to me that people tend to pick 4% for this, even though 4% comes from a study of doing it the other way.
by Orion
Mon Mar 04, 2013 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ article on "The 4% Rule" Here is the link.
Replies: 66
Views: 15501

Re: WSJ article on "The 4% Rule" HERE is the link

I had the same impression - a bunch of alternatives that have been discussed for some time wrapped up with a catchy headline.
by Orion
Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield on TIPS fund: -4.5% or -1.1%?
Replies: 8
Views: 891

Re: Yield on TIPS fund: -4.5% or -1.1%?

I can't quite get my head around this. If the VG fund is the real yield and the TIAA fund is the real yield plus CPI, then the CPI is -3.5%? Or am I doing this wrong?
by Orion
Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wimpy Market Timing
Replies: 82
Views: 5489

Re: Wimpy Market Timing

I didn't see this posted before. Apologies if I missed it:

200-day moving average market timing

I've only skimmed a bit of it, but with 1192 posts, there must be something relevant in there.
by Orion
Mon Jan 21, 2013 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contest: provide a better metaphor than "bubble"
Replies: 51
Views: 4220

Re: Contest: provide a better metaphor than "bubble"

I was thinking balloon as well. A friend's mylar birthday balloon that we gave him 8 months ago is still partially inflated and still floating, but not as impressive now. Sounds about right.
by Orion
Mon Dec 17, 2012 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wifi Hotspot
Replies: 26
Views: 2235

Re: Wifi Hotspot

Just tell your neighbors the WPA key for your wireless router and you've created a hotspot. :)

(Of course, many non-business ISP plans forbid this and you may be unhappy with the shared performance anyway.)
by Orion
Mon Dec 17, 2012 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A tablet can replace a computer
Replies: 57
Views: 6683

Re: A tablet can replace a computer

I just procured a Nexus 7 and with Firefox BETA I can use flash enabled websites. This is the reason I enjoy the more open Android OS. I played with several Android tablets today. The Asus TF700T is pretty nice, with a display almost as good as the iPad. It also fixed many of my ipad/safari annoyan...
by Orion
Sat Dec 15, 2012 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A tablet can replace a computer
Replies: 57
Views: 6683

Re: A tablet can replace a computer

Is safari on an iPad full-featured? I'm not a Safari expert but from memory, Safari on the iPad is (or was last time I looked) missing flash, the ability to chose fonts and sizes, doesn't save pages for off-line reading - which is a shame because this would make for a great in-flight browser. There...
by Orion
Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A tablet can replace a computer
Replies: 57
Views: 6683

Re: A tablet can replace a computer

If you use your computer like a tablet, then a table can replace it. I've often thought that it was funny that we got computers in most homes, but then they mostly got used as replacements for magazines, newspapers, TVs, and phones. For simpler uses, simpler machines may be as good or better. I like...
by Orion
Fri Nov 09, 2012 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PBS Frontline is looking for people to interview
Replies: 24
Views: 9181

Re: PBS Frontline is looking for people to interview

"If it bleeds, it leads". In general, you don't get a lot of: "things are normal" reports on news shows. You see people's homes after they get demolished. You hear about airline travel mostly when the system is all clogged up, etc.
by Orion
Sat Oct 27, 2012 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Windows 8: Time to Short Microsoft?
Replies: 52
Views: 5122

Re: Windows 8: Time to Short Microsoft?

rmelvey wrote:Who knows though, I thought the iPad looked stupid when I first saw it.


Good point. I have personally failed to see the attraction of a number of recent products and services that have turned out to be very popular.
by Orion
Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Assuming you'll need same amount $ late in retirement
Replies: 31
Views: 2263

Re: Assuming you'll need same amount $ late in retirement

Would you say that $5414 total couple's premiums to cover 20% of their medical bills small? (8% of our annual spending last year) Our private health care premiums are about twice that, but that's for all of our coverage, and we're only in our early 50s. Projecting our annual premium increases out t...
by Orion
Sat Aug 11, 2012 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Black Box” Investment Fraud
Replies: 9
Views: 1242

Re: “Black Box” Investment Fraud

For better or worse, I think that outside of enthusiast web forums, most people are relying on (trusting) other people to figure many things out for them. Of course, at each forum, you have enthusiasts wondering why people would do that for the subject of THIS particular forum. I find that when I ta...
by Orion
Sat Aug 11, 2012 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Black Box” Investment Fraud
Replies: 9
Views: 1242

Re: “Black Box” Investment Fraud

"simply code this up" sounds more like geeks talking on slashdot than most investors that I know.

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