Search found 1072 matches

by Oicuryy
Tue May 23, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS tax letter triggered by Turbotax's 8606
Replies: 38
Views: 3764

Re: IRS tax letter triggered by Turbotax's 8606

If TT didn't do the conversion (lines 16 - 18), then how did lines 13 - 15 come out right? Seems like they would have been wrong if the conversion step got skipped. Why would they be different? Line 13 comes from line 8 of Worksheet 1-1 in Pub. 590-B. Line 8 is the same with or without a Roth conve...
by Oicuryy
Sun May 21, 2017 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to get Vanguard funds historical data
Replies: 1
Views: 280

Re: Where to get Vanguard funds historical data

Yahoo still has the dividends but you have to download them separately.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VBMFX/h ... equency=1d

Ron
by Oicuryy
Thu May 18, 2017 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 40
Views: 2429

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

What is the best way to calculate the daily return when a distribution occurs? Is it (ex-divided price + dividend) / previous price Or is it ex-dividend price / (previous price - dividend) If I understand the link in jimb_fromATL 's post correctly, Yahoo uses the second method when adjusting prices....
by Oicuryy
Wed May 17, 2017 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 40
Views: 2429

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

FWIW, this thread prompted me to write this little macro to use Yahoo's dividend data to adjust Yahoo's price data. No guarantees. Use at your own risk. Blah, blah, blah. Sub adjustclose() ' Put Yahoo historical price data starting in cell A1 sorted in ascending order by date ' row 1 is column heade...
by Oicuryy
Fri May 12, 2017 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excel Macro using Yahoo Finance- not working
Replies: 19
Views: 1646

Re: Excel Macro using Yahoo Finance- not working

The macro in the first spreadsheet on this gummy-stuff page still works.

http://www.financialwisdomforum.org/gum ... o-data.htm

Ron
by Oicuryy
Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Deferred Annuity
Replies: 7
Views: 755

Re: Deferred Annuity

What is a Deferred Annuity? To really know what a deferred variable annuity is you need to read the prospectus. I'm guessing this is the one your parents have. http://fundresearch.fidelity.com/prospectus/redirect?clientId=Fidelity&applicationId=FILI&securityId=31617A206&documentType=CPR...
by Oicuryy
Sat Apr 22, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excel Solver for Portfolio Rebalancing across Multiple Accounts
Replies: 13
Views: 1590

Re: Excel Solver for Portfolio Rebalancing across Multiple Accounts

I started making an excel spreadsheet for rebalancing, went down into the blackhole of making my own LP solver equation and quickly became overwhelmed. Have you tried Excel's Solver tool? https://support.office.com/en-us/article/Define-and-solve-a-problem-by-using-Solver-9ed03c9f-7caf-4d99-bb6d-078...
by Oicuryy
Sun Apr 16, 2017 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation Between Yield Change and Duration
Replies: 5
Views: 437

Re: Correlation Between Yield Change and Duration

I don't recall a discussion on the relationship between yield changes and duration changes. There was this discussion on calculating duration when yields are negative. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=96901 Edit: There is this from Wikipedia . As the interest rate increases...
by Oicuryy
Wed Apr 12, 2017 4:59 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: I want to be notified everytime there is a new topic
Replies: 1
Views: 557

Re: I want to be notified everytime there is a new topic

I think your RSS reader can get links to new topics by subscribing to this feed.

feed.php?mode=topics

See viewtopic.php?f=3&t=203186

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sun Apr 02, 2017 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimated tax payment question
Replies: 4
Views: 470

Re: Estimated tax payment question

See Form 2210 and its instructions. https://www.irs.gov/uac/form-2210-underpayment-of-estimated-tax-by-individuals-estates-and-trusts-1 You can do it either way. If you decide to use your option 2 you can fill out a column of Schedule AI of Form 2210 at the end of each period to calculate the estima...
by Oicuryy
Sun Mar 26, 2017 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalance help - the math
Replies: 13
Views: 725

Re: Rebalance help - the math

Do I add up the $ value of my U.S. Stock Allocation and multiple X .18 . Example say the U.S. stock allocation value is $100,000 X .18 = $18,000. I would sell $18,000 worth of the U.S. stock allocation You've got it. I just looked at that spreadsheet . The author should have included that calculati...
by Oicuryy
Sun Mar 26, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalance help - the math
Replies: 13
Views: 725

Re: Rebalance help - the math

You have already done most of the math. But there is a problem with the numbers shown for your international stocks allocation. 10-8.96 = 1.04 not 1.37 You could sell -6.07/32.07 = -18.9% of your current U.S. stocks allocation. You could buy +1.04/8.96 = +11.6% of your current international stocks a...
by Oicuryy
Sat Mar 11, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Please Try Out Test Posts Here
Replies: 173
Views: 150687

Re: Please Try Out Test Posts Here

Mudpuppy, The bookmarklet needs to be run by your browser after this page has loaded. You can create a bookmark in your browser and then paste the bookmarklet code into the location field of the bookmark. After this page has load, click on the bookmark. Or you could copy and paste the bookmarklet co...
by Oicuryy
Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:02 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Please Try Out Test Posts Here
Replies: 173
Views: 150687

Re: Please Try Out Test Posts Here

This is a test to see if a bookmarklet can add MathJax to this page to display these AsciiMath expressions like real math. `gMS_30 = 1/((1+r_1))+1/((1+r_1)(1+r_2))+cdots+1/((1+r_1)(1+r_2)cdots(1+r_30))` `gMS=sum_(i=1)^n (1/(prod_(j=1)^i(1+r_j)))` Edit: It seems to work. Here is the bookmarklet. It w...
by Oicuryy
Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 4227

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

:arrow: Conclusions: 1. Don't even think of stocks for less than 10 years. 2. More than 20 years, stocks are the way to go. 3. Between 10 and 20 years is the tricky part. 4. There is still a wide range of outcomes, like 10 to 1 or greater. To my eye the range of outcomes isn't any greater at forty ...
by Oicuryy
Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds and YTM -- Issue with The Bond Book's Claim
Replies: 14
Views: 1035

Re: Bonds and YTM -- Issue with The Bond Book's Claim

Here is another explanation of the formula for a bond's yield to maturity.
http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/finw ... ondytm.htm

It might be helpful to start at the beginning of that series of articles.
http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/finworks/fmintro.htm

Ron
by Oicuryy
Wed Mar 08, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds and YTM -- Issue with The Bond Book's Claim
Replies: 14
Views: 1035

Re: Bonds and YTM -- Issue with The Bond Book's Claim

For example, from your link: >So, what if I don't (or can't) invest the coupons at the yield rate. What if I buy hamburgers with the coupons. What if ...? Then the formula above, namely: A(1+R)N = B + C(1+R)N-1 + C(1+R)N-2 + C(1+R)N-3 + ... + C would become: A(1+R)N = B + C + C + C + ... = B + N C ...
by Oicuryy
Tue Feb 28, 2017 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding under the microscope.
Replies: 89
Views: 7184

Re: Compounding under the microscope.

*3!4!/5! wrote:Try to understand this concept
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_case

Geometric sequences are a special case of all sequences. You are claiming that the term "compounding" applies to the general case of all sequences. Please show me one other source that supports your claim.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Tue Feb 28, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding under the microscope.
Replies: 89
Views: 7184

Re: Compounding under the microscope.

Hi nisiprius,

It wouldn't even need to be a reasonable authority. I'd like to see any authority that explicitly stated there was absolutely no connection between the concept of compounding and the concept of exponential growth.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Tue Feb 28, 2017 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding under the microscope.
Replies: 89
Views: 7184

Re: Compounding under the microscope.

You keep trying to imposing your own infintessimally narrow conception of "compounding" onto this thread. Please just try to understand the math. Can you cite any source beside yourself that defines compounding with the same math you do? Here is a Google search to get you started. https:/...
by Oicuryy
Tue Feb 28, 2017 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding under the microscope.
Replies: 89
Views: 7184

Re: Compounding under the microscope.

Consider these two sequences. 100, 150, 200, 250, 300, 350, 400, 450 100, 101, 104, 109, 116, 125, 136, 149 I contend that the first sequence is linear growth and the second is quadratic growth. *3!4!/5! claims those two sequences and every other possible sequence is compound growth. If any sequence...
by Oicuryy
Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding under the microscope.
Replies: 89
Views: 7184

Re: Compounding under the microscope.

dbr wrote:I think the quote you have there is using "exponential" in a casual rather than precise way.

The word "compounding" can mean exponential in the strict sense. Or it can mean sort of exponential in a casual since. But it cannot be arbitrary as *3!4!/5! claims.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Mon Feb 27, 2017 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding under the microscope.
Replies: 89
Views: 7184

Re: Compounding under the microscope.

There's nothing that says there should have exponential growth (or decay) (i.e. a geometric sequence), I think there is. See, for example, this excerpt from Investopedia's definition of compounding. Compounding is the process where the value of an investment increases because the earnings on an inv...
by Oicuryy
Mon Feb 27, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding under the microscope.
Replies: 89
Views: 7184

Re: Compounding under the microscope.

Multiplication factors from each values to the next: (v_1/v_0), (v_2/v_1), (v_3/v_2), ... , (v_n/v_{n-1}), So when you multiply these: (v_1/v_0) * (v_2/v_1) * (v_3/v_2) * ... * (v_n/v_{n-1}) = (v_n/v_0) and that's just the multiplication factor to go from the initial value to the final value! v_0 *...
by Oicuryy
Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actually calculating "social security and pensions" as bonds [UK]
Replies: 1
Views: 265

Re: Actually calculating "social security and pensions" as bonds [UK]

Calculate the present value of a pension the same way you calculate the present value of a life annuity. http://actuarialsciencestudies.blogspot.com/2012/04/present-value-of-life-annuity.html Since your pension payments are in real pounds use a real yield curve to discount each future payment; maybe...
by Oicuryy
Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Y2k retiree how is s/he holding up after 2016
Replies: 26
Views: 4194

Re: Y2k retiree how is s/he holding up after 2016

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2000&firstMonth=1&endYear=2016&lastMonth=12&endDate=01%2F19%2F2017&initialAmount=1000000&annualOperation=2&annualAdjustment=40000&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=4.0&...
by Oicuryy
Sun Jan 15, 2017 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shouldn't everyone do a traditional IRA/401k instead of a Roth?
Replies: 132
Views: 8115

Re: Shouldn't everyone do a traditional IRA/401k instead of a Roth?

Jamesla30 , A little late but here is my response to your first table. The $5500 in your Roth can be broken down as $3575 + $1925. After 30 years the $3575 has grown to 3575*1.07^30 = $27,214 after tax, the same as your traditional IRA. The $1925 grows to 1925*1.07^30 = $14,654 after tax, the same ...
by Oicuryy
Sat Jan 14, 2017 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shouldn't everyone do a traditional IRA/401k instead of a Roth?
Replies: 132
Views: 8115

Re: Shouldn't everyone do a traditional IRA/401k instead of a Roth?

Combined Gross Income is $145k. Pension contributions, 457b contributions, health care FSA, childcare FSA, 3 exemptions, and itemized deductions on a home in a VHCOL area reduce taxable wages to under $75k and we fall into the 15% bracket. So, are (some of) your 457 contribution going into a Roth 4...
by Oicuryy
Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shouldn't everyone do a traditional IRA/401k instead of a Roth?
Replies: 132
Views: 8115

Re: Shouldn't everyone do a traditional IRA/401k instead of a Roth?

brad.clarkston , The Tax Policy Center table shows 45% had zero or negative income tax. I believe *3!4!/5! is arguing that someone with negative income tax could have a high marginal tax rate. If an additional dollar of AGI costs you $0.40 in refundable tax credits, for example, your marginal tax r...
by Oicuryy
Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on Vanguard Managed Payout Fund (VPGDX) vs ??
Replies: 36
Views: 3519

Re: Advice on Vanguard Managed Payout Fund (VPGDX) vs ??

As I write this, Vanguard's calculator estimates that a monthly payout of $8,000 from the Managed Payout fund would need an investment of $2,561,442. The advantage of this fund is that Vanguard will automatically adjust the payout each year based on the smoothed performance of the fund's portfolio. ...
by Oicuryy
Fri Jan 06, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much inflation do Bogleheads predict?
Replies: 13
Views: 1353

Re: How much inflation do Bogleheads predict?

rgs92 wrote:For instance, as a corollary, could the 1970s occur again in the next 30 years? And if so, how?

This paper might give you some insight into how inflation occurred in the '70s.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=2126277

Ron
by Oicuryy
Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard can't figure out how to do a simple Roth recharacterization - help!
Replies: 3
Views: 478

Re: Vanguard can't figure out how to do a simple Roth recharacterization - help!

They just needed to recharacterize the same very TIPS that I had converted in the first place!!! I'm pretty sure you can't recharacterize specific securities. The IRS thinks in dollar amounts not securities. Use Worksheet 1-3 in Pub. 590-A to calculate the net income on your $77k conversion and the...
by Oicuryy
Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you treat 401k Match for IRR Purposes?
Replies: 46
Views: 2353

Re: How do you treat 401k Match for IRR Purposes?

iceport , Cash flows do not change the time-weighted rate of return (TWRR) of a portfolio. Your investor would compare the TWRR of his portfolio to the TWRR of the benchmark to see the effect of rebalancing. He would compare the TWRR of his portfolio to its IRR to see the effect of the timing of hi...
by Oicuryy
Tue Jan 03, 2017 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you treat 401k Match for IRR Purposes?
Replies: 46
Views: 2353

Re: How do you treat 401k Match for IRR Purposes?

wk522 , Maybe this post from Gummy will help you decide which type of return calculation you want to do. http://www.financialwisdomforum.org/gummy-stuff/fund-you.htm Gummy also has a post that explains how to calculate a time-weighted rate of return when there have been cash flows. http://www.finan...
by Oicuryy
Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you treat 401k Match for IRR Purposes?
Replies: 46
Views: 2353

Re: How do you treat 401k Match for IRR Purposes?

When using the Bogleheads Retruns spreadsheet, I purposely exclude contributions and withdrawals to get a pure investment return. Excluding contributions and withdrawals from return calculations is known as the Beardstown Ladies method of calculating returns. It sounds like the OP wants the time-we...
by Oicuryy
Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?
Replies: 93
Views: 6828

Re: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?

You could also look at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s inflation expectations model.

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-resear ... tions.aspx

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sun Jan 01, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?
Replies: 93
Views: 6828

Re: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?

I know anything is possible, but do you think its more likely that 2% is a better benchmark than 3%? I do. The Fed made a public commitment to a 2% inflation target in January 2012. They had never before publicly announced a longer run inflation target. Inflation has been below 2% since that announ...
by Oicuryy
Sat Dec 17, 2016 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what is fed repo bony - largest holding of SWGXX
Replies: 5
Views: 459

Re: what is fed repo bony - largest holding of SWGXX

Here is some information on the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase program. https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_faq.html These are obligations of the Federal Reserve that are collateralized by U.S. Treasuries. They are at least as safe if not safer than Treasuries. Last Wednesday the ...
by Oicuryy
Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are distributions declining? Vanguard ST Corp. Bond ETF - VCSH
Replies: 11
Views: 1143

Re: Why are distributions declining? Vanguard ST Corp. Bond ETF - VCSH

Bonds typically do not make monthly coupon payments. Maybe the fund owns more bonds that make coupon payments in August and September and fewer bonds that make coupon payments in October and November.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Good News For Bonds!
Replies: 98
Views: 12059

Re: Good News For Bonds!

Also good news for shareholders of money market mutual funds. The Fed doubled the rate it pays on overnight reverse repurchase agreements from 25 basis points to 50.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Mon Dec 12, 2016 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 10066

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

Again, if the term market-timing covers every decision made while investing, then it's a useless, pointless word. Is that your goal? To make market-timing's definition so broad that it covers everything? Wikipedia's definition of market timing is broad enough to cover rebalancing. But it does not c...
by Oicuryy
Sun Dec 11, 2016 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 10066

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

Market timing is the strategy of making buy or sell decisions of financial assets (often stocks) by attempting to predict future market price movements. The prediction may be based on an outlook of market or economic conditions resulting from technical or fundamental analysis. This is an investment...
by Oicuryy
Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 10066

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

What "predictive method" is involved here specifically, given that your asset allocation isn't changing. There is no input of technical indicators or economic data, no predictions that stocks will do better over the coming year than bonds. But there is a technical indicator - a measure of...
by Oicuryy
Fri Dec 09, 2016 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 10066

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

Rebalancing when the portfolio is out of balance is market timing. (OP's scenario 2) No, it isn't. Again, by any common definition of market timing, putting your portfolio back in balance when it is unbalanced is not market timing. Others have posted the common definition of market timing. Here is ...
by Oicuryy
Thu Dec 08, 2016 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 10066

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

Modern Portfolio Theory assumes that the securities in a portfolio are rebalanced to their initial weights at the start of each return measurement period. (E.g. rebalance annually if you chose weights based on your predictions of the means, variances and covariances of the future annual returns of t...
by Oicuryy
Fri Nov 04, 2016 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash Dividend Vs Stock Dividend Vs Stock Split
Replies: 153
Views: 8952

Re: Cash Dividend Vs Stock Dividend Vs Stock Split

Is there a reputable source where I can go to and actually get real facts? So much information online can be wrong. This source is no more reliable than the others you have read. But it does give a possible explanation for the price movements seen around ex-dividend dates. Dividends Are Not Free Mo...

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