Search found 1096 matches

by Oicuryy
Sat Jul 08, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Doesn't My 401(k) Pay Dividends?
Replies: 33
Views: 3004

Re: Why Doesn't My 401(k) Pay Dividends?

It is because of the convoluted U.S. tax laws. Mutual funds are subject to U.S. corporate income tax. But a loophole allows funds to avoid income tax if they distribute substantially all of their income to their shareholders each year. So they do. The dividends and interest the funds receive from th...
by Oicuryy
Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is this cable device?
Replies: 53
Views: 3112

Re: What is this cable device?

They are the power supply and power inserter shown in this video. The amplifier is at the other end of the cable in the wall.
http://www.ppc-online.com/5-and-9-port- ... 1w8yqivolv

Ron
by Oicuryy
Thu Jul 06, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 13766

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

Remember Barry Barnitz' essay on Jane Austen's Economics? https://docs.google.com/document/d/1FCpDsPblW9Xd6I2ctPrO_u_iLRMqSH1CL1jaQ1gtMFA/pub The idea that "capital" should never be spent, only the "income" from that capital should be spent, dates back at least that far. In our a...
by Oicuryy
Sat Jul 01, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Date 2015 vs Managed Payout - Is this a dumb question?
Replies: 6
Views: 811

Re: Vanguard Target Date 2015 vs Managed Payout - Is this a dumb question?

What has the actual payout been? It's been around since May 2008, so what was the payout during the crash? By my calculations, here is how the payout changed from the previous year. 2009 -16.1% 2010 -9.3% 2011 +2.1% 2012 +1.9% 2013 +6.8% 2014 -16.9% 2015 +6.3% 2016 +4.3% 2017 +1.2% Vanguard did not...
by Oicuryy
Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Does Fed Reduce Balance Sheet?
Replies: 24
Views: 2492

Re: How Does Fed Reduce Balance Sheet?

I drew this graph a few years ago to see if I could see any effect of the big increase in the monetary base (QE), the dark green line, on some other economic measures.
Image
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=e89i

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Wiki] - Percentage Gain and Loss (for new investors)
Replies: 115
Views: 6394

Re: [Wiki] - Percentage Gain and Loss (for new investors)

LadyGeek wrote:How's it look? Do we have a consensus?

:thumbsup

livesoft wrote:My fund tripled in value in one year, what was its performance?

A gain of 109.86 cNp.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sat Jun 17, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Wiki] - Percentage Gain and Loss (for new investors)
Replies: 115
Views: 6394

Re: [Wiki] - Percentage Gain and Loss (for new investors)

Consider adding a sentence to the first paragraph. When an investment changes value, the dollar amount needed to return to its initial (starting) value is the same as the dollar amount of the change - but opposite in sign. Expressed as a Percentage gain and loss, the percentage gained will be differ...
by Oicuryy
Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 131
Views: 15100

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

but I'm also interested in the theoretical quation of what drives yields on Money Market versus online savings. These days the Fed offers to borrow overnight from money market funds at an interest rate equal to the low end of their target range for the federal funds rate. Anyone else who wants to b...
by Oicuryy
Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility and Arithmetic mean returns
Replies: 4
Views: 382

Re: Volatility and Arithmetic mean returns

Using excel I get: 1.055230398 =AVERAGE(23/24,26/23,28/26) 1.0527266 =GEOMEAN(23/24,26/23,28/26) 0.005171771 =VARP(23/24,26/23,28/26) 0.071915026 =STDEVP(23/24,26/23,28/26) If you are looking for the (approximate) relationship between arithmetic mean, geometric mean and standard deviation see http:/...
by Oicuryy
Fri Jun 16, 2017 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Wiki] - Percentage Gain and Loss (for new investors)
Replies: 115
Views: 6394

Re: [Wiki] - Percentage Gain and Loss (for new investors)

Some entries in the table are wrong, too. If you lose 60%, then you need to gain 250%. (Losing 60% is the same as keeping 40%, so you need to more than double before you have the original amount.) (a/b)*(b/a)=1 If a/b = 0.4 then b/a = 2.5 To convert the ratio a/b to percentage subtract 1 then multi...
by Oicuryy
Fri Jun 16, 2017 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Wiki] - Percentage Gain and Loss (for new investors)
Replies: 115
Views: 6394

Re: [Wiki] - Percentage Gain and Loss (for new investors)

Here is the math.

(a/b)*(b/a) = 1

Now the wiki page just needs to explain how knowing this can help one be a better investor.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Fri Jun 16, 2017 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Does Fed Reduce Balance Sheet?
Replies: 24
Views: 2492

Re: How Does Fed Reduce Balance Sheet?

When the Fed redeems a maturing bond that bond is removed from the asset side of its balance sheet. The Fed then uncreates the money it received from the maturing bond. That money became a liability of the Fed when the Fed created it. Uncreating it removes it from the liability side of the balance s...
by Oicuryy
Mon Jun 12, 2017 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Wiki] - Percentage Gain and Loss (for new investors)
Replies: 115
Views: 6394

Re: [Wiki] - Percentage Gain and Loss (for new investors)

When the market takes a large negative swing, recovery will take a longer time because the market needs a larger percentage increase to get back to the same point.

Are you sure about that?

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sun Jun 11, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Longest conversation thread?
Replies: 6
Views: 949

Re: Longest conversation thread?

Go to this page, scroll to the bottom and sort by number of replies.

viewforum.php?f=10

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sat Jun 10, 2017 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 7084

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

Simplegift wrote:Image

What is the equation for that line?

Simplegift wrote:Source: Census Bureau

Using the equation for that line and the data in Table B-3 from that link what will the inflation rates be for those forty countries in 2050?

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sat Jun 10, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 7084

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

Any correlation between inflation and population age is just coincidence. The high inflation of the 1970s was caused by the monetary policy of the time. See https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_quarterly/1998/winter/hetzel Monetary policy changed in the early 1980's and inflati...
by Oicuryy
Tue Jun 06, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My Variable Annuity [what do I have?]
Replies: 39
Views: 3420

Re: My Variable Annuity [what do I have?]

I think this is the prospectus for the OP's variable annuity. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/931779/000119312517141738/d307493d485bpos.txt If it is and if I'm reading it right the Income Base keeps increasing 6% per year until age 85. The GMIB Plus I Income Base is calculated as described a...
by Oicuryy
Sun Jun 04, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My Variable Annuity [what do I have?]
Replies: 39
Views: 3420

Re: My Variable Annuity [what do I have?]

(Note: I wrote the following before noticing that the opening post is a year old.) The Predictor Plus rider is a guaranteed minimum income benefit (GMIB) rider. The rider guarantees you a predetermined monthly annuity payment amount when you begin receiving annuity payments. The payment is calculate...
by Oicuryy
Sat Jun 03, 2017 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixing Yahoo Finance Macro - HELP
Replies: 10
Views: 1000

Re: Fixing Yahoo Finance Macro - HELP

This querytable worked for me in excel 2003 on windows 7. Sub yahoohistory() With ActiveSheet.QueryTables.Add("URL;", Range("A1")) .Connection = "URL;" & "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v7/finance/download/IBM?period1=1493782307&period2=1496460707&int...
by Oicuryy
Fri Jun 02, 2017 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixing Yahoo Finance Macro - HELP
Replies: 10
Views: 1000

Re: Fixing Yahoo Finance Macro - HELP

The crumb does seem to be needed. But the post by kloc in this thread suggests that the crumb is not necessary if the url is sent with an http post request instead of a get request.

http://www.nuclearphynance.com/Show%20P ... Key=184566

Ron
by Oicuryy
Fri Jun 02, 2017 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixing Yahoo Finance Macro - HELP
Replies: 10
Views: 1000

Re: Fixing Yahoo Finance Macro - HELP

I have not tried it, but this workaround using PostText looks promising.

https://www.mrexcel.com/forum/excel-que ... ost4832496

Ron
by Oicuryy
Tue May 30, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about paper currency
Replies: 12
Views: 940

Re: Question about paper currency

Countries don't do that because they don't want to go through what Zimbabwe went through last decade.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinfl ... n_Zimbabwe

Ron
by Oicuryy
Tue May 23, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS tax letter triggered by Turbotax's 8606
Replies: 38
Views: 4477

Re: IRS tax letter triggered by Turbotax's 8606

If TT didn't do the conversion (lines 16 - 18), then how did lines 13 - 15 come out right? Seems like they would have been wrong if the conversion step got skipped. Why would they be different? Line 13 comes from line 8 of Worksheet 1-1 in Pub. 590-B. Line 8 is the same with or without a Roth conve...
by Oicuryy
Sun May 21, 2017 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to get Vanguard funds historical data
Replies: 1
Views: 364

Re: Where to get Vanguard funds historical data

Yahoo still has the dividends but you have to download them separately.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VBMFX/h ... equency=1d

Ron
by Oicuryy
Thu May 18, 2017 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 62
Views: 6401

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

What is the best way to calculate the daily return when a distribution occurs? Is it (ex-divided price + dividend) / previous price Or is it ex-dividend price / (previous price - dividend) If I understand the link in jimb_fromATL 's post correctly, Yahoo uses the second method when adjusting prices....
by Oicuryy
Wed May 17, 2017 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 62
Views: 6401

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

FWIW, this thread prompted me to write this little macro to use Yahoo's dividend data to adjust Yahoo's price data. No guarantees. Use at your own risk. Blah, blah, blah. Sub adjustclose() ' Put Yahoo historical price data starting in cell A1 sorted in ascending order by date ' row 1 is column heade...
by Oicuryy
Fri May 12, 2017 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excel Macro using Yahoo Finance- not working
Replies: 26
Views: 3296

Re: Excel Macro using Yahoo Finance- not working

The macro in the first spreadsheet on this gummy-stuff page still works.

http://www.financialwisdomforum.org/gum ... o-data.htm

Ron
by Oicuryy
Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Deferred Annuity
Replies: 7
Views: 854

Re: Deferred Annuity

What is a Deferred Annuity? To really know what a deferred variable annuity is you need to read the prospectus. I'm guessing this is the one your parents have. http://fundresearch.fidelity.com/prospectus/redirect?clientId=Fidelity&applicationId=FILI&securityId=31617A206&documentType=CPR...
by Oicuryy
Sat Apr 22, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excel Solver for Portfolio Rebalancing across Multiple Accounts
Replies: 24
Views: 2911

Re: Excel Solver for Portfolio Rebalancing across Multiple Accounts

I started making an excel spreadsheet for rebalancing, went down into the blackhole of making my own LP solver equation and quickly became overwhelmed. Have you tried Excel's Solver tool? https://support.office.com/en-us/article/Define-and-solve-a-problem-by-using-Solver-9ed03c9f-7caf-4d99-bb6d-078...
by Oicuryy
Sun Apr 16, 2017 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation Between Yield Change and Duration
Replies: 5
Views: 504

Re: Correlation Between Yield Change and Duration

I don't recall a discussion on the relationship between yield changes and duration changes. There was this discussion on calculating duration when yields are negative. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=96901 Edit: There is this from Wikipedia . As the interest rate increases...
by Oicuryy
Wed Apr 12, 2017 4:59 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: I want to be notified everytime there is a new topic
Replies: 1
Views: 769

Re: I want to be notified everytime there is a new topic

I think your RSS reader can get links to new topics by subscribing to this feed.

feed.php?mode=topics

See viewtopic.php?f=3&t=203186

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sun Apr 02, 2017 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimated tax payment question
Replies: 4
Views: 528

Re: Estimated tax payment question

See Form 2210 and its instructions. https://www.irs.gov/uac/form-2210-underpayment-of-estimated-tax-by-individuals-estates-and-trusts-1 You can do it either way. If you decide to use your option 2 you can fill out a column of Schedule AI of Form 2210 at the end of each period to calculate the estima...
by Oicuryy
Sun Mar 26, 2017 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalance help - the math
Replies: 13
Views: 795

Re: Rebalance help - the math

Do I add up the $ value of my U.S. Stock Allocation and multiple X .18 . Example say the U.S. stock allocation value is $100,000 X .18 = $18,000. I would sell $18,000 worth of the U.S. stock allocation You've got it. I just looked at that spreadsheet . The author should have included that calculati...
by Oicuryy
Sun Mar 26, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalance help - the math
Replies: 13
Views: 795

Re: Rebalance help - the math

You have already done most of the math. But there is a problem with the numbers shown for your international stocks allocation. 10-8.96 = 1.04 not 1.37 You could sell -6.07/32.07 = -18.9% of your current U.S. stocks allocation. You could buy +1.04/8.96 = +11.6% of your current international stocks a...
by Oicuryy
Sat Mar 11, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Please Try Out Test Posts Here
Replies: 182
Views: 154991

Re: Please Try Out Test Posts Here

Mudpuppy, The bookmarklet needs to be run by your browser after this page has loaded. You can create a bookmark in your browser and then paste the bookmarklet code into the location field of the bookmark. After this page has load, click on the bookmark. Or you could copy and paste the bookmarklet co...
by Oicuryy
Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:02 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Please Try Out Test Posts Here
Replies: 182
Views: 154991

Re: Please Try Out Test Posts Here

This is a test to see if a bookmarklet can add MathJax to this page to display these AsciiMath expressions like real math. `gMS_30 = 1/((1+r_1))+1/((1+r_1)(1+r_2))+cdots+1/((1+r_1)(1+r_2)cdots(1+r_30))` `gMS=sum_(i=1)^n (1/(prod_(j=1)^i(1+r_j)))` Edit: It seems to work. Here is the bookmarklet. It w...
by Oicuryy
Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 4448

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

:arrow: Conclusions: 1. Don't even think of stocks for less than 10 years. 2. More than 20 years, stocks are the way to go. 3. Between 10 and 20 years is the tricky part. 4. There is still a wide range of outcomes, like 10 to 1 or greater. To my eye the range of outcomes isn't any greater at forty ...
by Oicuryy
Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds and YTM -- Issue with The Bond Book's Claim
Replies: 14
Views: 1147

Re: Bonds and YTM -- Issue with The Bond Book's Claim

Here is another explanation of the formula for a bond's yield to maturity.
http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/finw ... ondytm.htm

It might be helpful to start at the beginning of that series of articles.
http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/finworks/fmintro.htm

Ron
by Oicuryy
Wed Mar 08, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds and YTM -- Issue with The Bond Book's Claim
Replies: 14
Views: 1147

Re: Bonds and YTM -- Issue with The Bond Book's Claim

For example, from your link: >So, what if I don't (or can't) invest the coupons at the yield rate. What if I buy hamburgers with the coupons. What if ...? Then the formula above, namely: A(1+R)N = B + C(1+R)N-1 + C(1+R)N-2 + C(1+R)N-3 + ... + C would become: A(1+R)N = B + C + C + C + ... = B + N C ...
by Oicuryy
Tue Feb 28, 2017 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding under the microscope.
Replies: 89
Views: 7537

Re: Compounding under the microscope.

*3!4!/5! wrote:Try to understand this concept
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_case

Geometric sequences are a special case of all sequences. You are claiming that the term "compounding" applies to the general case of all sequences. Please show me one other source that supports your claim.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Tue Feb 28, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding under the microscope.
Replies: 89
Views: 7537

Re: Compounding under the microscope.

Hi nisiprius,

It wouldn't even need to be a reasonable authority. I'd like to see any authority that explicitly stated there was absolutely no connection between the concept of compounding and the concept of exponential growth.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Tue Feb 28, 2017 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding under the microscope.
Replies: 89
Views: 7537

Re: Compounding under the microscope.

You keep trying to imposing your own infintessimally narrow conception of "compounding" onto this thread. Please just try to understand the math. Can you cite any source beside yourself that defines compounding with the same math you do? Here is a Google search to get you started. https:/...
by Oicuryy
Tue Feb 28, 2017 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding under the microscope.
Replies: 89
Views: 7537

Re: Compounding under the microscope.

Consider these two sequences. 100, 150, 200, 250, 300, 350, 400, 450 100, 101, 104, 109, 116, 125, 136, 149 I contend that the first sequence is linear growth and the second is quadratic growth. *3!4!/5! claims those two sequences and every other possible sequence is compound growth. If any sequence...
by Oicuryy
Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding under the microscope.
Replies: 89
Views: 7537

Re: Compounding under the microscope.

dbr wrote:I think the quote you have there is using "exponential" in a casual rather than precise way.

The word "compounding" can mean exponential in the strict sense. Or it can mean sort of exponential in a casual since. But it cannot be arbitrary as *3!4!/5! claims.

Ron

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