Search found 4631 matches

by Noobvestor
Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Marketing [Transition to brokerage account]
Replies: 16
Views: 1168

Re: Vanguard Marketing

Someone may come along who knows better than me, but it's my understanding they consolidated everyone's accounts into the brokerage platform. If I'm right, they aren't trying to upsell you, just bringing you into their new overall system where everything's in one place. Looks like some people have f...
by Noobvestor
Wed May 16, 2018 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 106
Views: 10478

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

If your investment horizon is over ten years, there is absolutely no reason to own bond funds right now. VBTLX has a 2.64% dividend yield, while VBILX has 2.76%. VTSAX has 1.74%. Why chase the less than 1% difference in yield, when bond funds have fallen so much harder than VTSAX? I don't even unde...
by Noobvestor
Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Limits of Modern Portfolio Theory - Do Investors Understand What They Own?
Replies: 16
Views: 2100

The Limits of Modern Portfolio Theory - Do Investors Understand What They Own?

The Limits of Modern Portfolio Theory by Steven D. Bleiberg in Barron's It now dominates investing—and as a result, many equity investors no longer understand the companies they own. Link: https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-limits-of-modern-portfolio-theory-1523636363 I found this to be an intere...
by Noobvestor
Sun Apr 15, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: *A* yield curve has inverted
Replies: 3
Views: 1061

Re: *A* yield curve has inverted

Nominal curve is flattish at the long end. From 10-30 years you get just a little over 1bp per year. Even 5-10 you are getting less than 5bp. No real reason to extend beyond 2-3 years with anything right now. I'm open to being called irrational for this, but I'm holding intermediate-term Treasuries...
by Noobvestor
Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ditched bond fund for money market. Thoughts?
Replies: 40
Views: 4302

Re: Ditched bond fund for money market. Thoughts?

Instead of money market, how about switching to international bond fund? The Vanguard international bond index seems to be holding up nicely as opposed to Total bond index which is negative YTD. Curious what the group thinks about this. Bond fund NAV is up because yield is down. I knew the yield wa...
by Noobvestor
Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ditched bond fund for money market. Thoughts?
Replies: 40
Views: 4302

Re: Ditched bond fund for money market. Thoughts?

Thanks for the replies. This move was just a very slight deviation from my IPS. (and is easily reversed) I would suggest fleshing your IPS out with details about target duration and credit quality. If you went from intermediate duration to effectively zero duration, for instance, I would call that ...
by Noobvestor
Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets tilt
Replies: 37
Views: 3364

Re: Emerging markets tilt

50/50 US/international + 50/50 developed/emerging (within international) - it's static, not tactical. Reasoning: emerging markets should be riskier and thus offer more return. Also, they have historically been less correlated with developed markets like the US (so: better diversification) . https://...
by Noobvestor
Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ditched bond fund for money market. Thoughts?
Replies: 40
Views: 4302

Re: Ditched bond fund for money market. Thoughts?

Depends on what you want out of your fixed income. I prefer intermediate duration, safe government bonds (Treasuries and TIPS) that may zig when the market zags (in flights to safety) and generally have a bit more yield than MM funds. Instead of a drastic move, consider a partial move - e.g. split c...
by Noobvestor
Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 16157

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

Dan / 3funder, I’m currently 42% equities evenly split US/Int and heavily tilted to SV, 38% intermediate bonds, 20% the alternatives mentioned in the article. Each one of the alts has equity like expected returns with about half the expected volatility of equities. Since they are all expected to be...
by Noobvestor
Fri Apr 06, 2018 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10892

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

Late to the party and too lazy to read all the replies, but when one adds ANY asset or subasset class they have to ask WHY they are adding it to their portfolio. Again, I think this is the wrong question to be asking. The real question is: why would one SUBTRACT international from a global portfoli...
by Noobvestor
Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10892

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

Let's just consider international by itself. It is about 20% EM. Say you want to tilt to EM by doubling that to 40%. Now your Dev/EM target is 60/80 instead of 80/20. You can get there by using 80% of Total International fund and 20% of an EM find. Or you also could get there by using 60% of a deve...
by Noobvestor
Thu Apr 05, 2018 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10892

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

Here's a post in another thread I found interesting and pertaining to our discussion: Re: How much international stock? A suggestion. Post by oldzey » Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:56 pm "The inception date of Vanguard Total Stock U.S. Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) was 4/27/1992. The inception date of Vangu...
by Noobvestor
Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Executor Dilemma - Disposition of Gold Assets
Replies: 10
Views: 1222

Re: Executor Dilemma - Disposition of Gold Assets

unclescrooge wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:40 am
Sell them to APMEX.
Distribute the proceeds.
Username checks out. Would follow his advice and/or dive into the coin pool in his money vault.

Image
by Noobvestor
Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10892

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

I think the points you lay out make a reasonable case for people from non US coutries significantly overweighting there own country as if they did not there own countries equities are a tiny part of their portfolio. However in the US at market weight we already have 50% in the US. If you combine th...
by Noobvestor
Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10892

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

Posted by Noobvestor To those folks still arguing 'but they're highly correlated!' read up and see how little that mattered to a Japanese investor. We've had two decades of high correlation (around .75), yet a Japanese investor saw around 1/10th the returns (worse if you go back a few more years). ...
by Noobvestor
Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10892

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

I wish I had ignored Vanguard and others who differed from his advice on this subject . Interesting. So you've had international, but regret it in hindsight. Suggestion: don't conflate strategy and outcome. I'm really only interested in outcome. It's true that all empires must fall eventually - unf...
by Noobvestor
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Alternative Approach To Alts
Replies: 22
Views: 3060

Re: Larry Swedroe: Alternative Approach To Alts

More hints at potential diversification benefits: today 4/2/18 S&P 500 -2.23% QRPRX -0.10% QSPIX -0.48% QMHRX -0.58% SRRIX no change LENDX +0.10% AVRPX -0.21% Dave Can't tell if this is a joke or not. All the funds except one are flat or down w/the market. One's up .1%, same as my Treasury index fu...
by Noobvestor
Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10892

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

Basically, having them go to zero wouldn't even be a blip on the radar ... In short: the scenario you described as a reason to avoid emerging markets doesn't match the reality of a normal global investing strategy. I think you are mixing me up with someone else. I checked and do not believe this to...
by Noobvestor
Mon Apr 02, 2018 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10892

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

People can dress it up however they want (international is risky, etc...) but it comes down in most cases to U.S. exceptionalism, either implicitly or explicitly. Yet to believe there aren't geographical, economic and political risks in the United States is, IMHO, hubris.'' I drank the international...
by Noobvestor
Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10892

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

Can you only invest in emerging markets through Vanguard? I didn't know that. :P FWIW, we don't own any Vanguard foreign or world funds of any kind. (Mainly I want to avoid EM.) :D But if I did there are A number of Venezuelan companies are listed on the New York Stock Exchange in the form of ADRs....
by Noobvestor
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10892

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

Is there a premium in investing in unstable, corrupt markets? ... absolutely. Not all forms of the Efficient Market Hypothesis claim that risk is perfectly priced into current prices. When you invest in a country like Venezuela, no capital under its authority is safe. Today's high growth firm is to...
by Noobvestor
Sun Apr 01, 2018 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finished?
Replies: 129
Views: 10218

Re: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finis

With the future trajectory of quantum computing, Bitcoin is going to zero in the long run. It could go to zero, but I think the critical factor in the foreseeable future is energy costs rather than advancements in computing. Seems very harmful to use massive amounts of energy to perform energy-inte...
by Noobvestor
Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10892

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

Stable governence without systematic corruption should be taken into account. An international large cap fund probably avoids the worst offenders. The market cannot price in when an autocrat will decide your business should be taken from you. You think the market doesn't price in political risks? S...
by Noobvestor
Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10892

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

"So if you bet entirely on one of the two largest stock markets in 2000 (note that this graph starts after Japan's big crash and gets much, much, much worse if you go back another 5 or 10 years), and you picked wrong, you'd have had dismal returns versus great returns." There are many historical, g...
by Noobvestor
Sun Apr 01, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10892

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

I'm not sure what you are trying to point out here, but here's another way to look at the same data: 24 month rolling return for same timeframe. Growth charts are not the best way to look at correlations over different time periods. Note: I had to amend my percentages in the original post you quote...
by Noobvestor
Sun Apr 01, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10892

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

It's not about correlations but dispersion of potential returns. This is a good point, IMO. I suspect (but don't have data) that the Japanese stock market has gone up and down more or less with the rest of the global stock market (i.e. had a high correlation) despite its decades of dismal under-per...
by Noobvestor
Sun Apr 01, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10892

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

I didn't read every post but from what I saw nothing I read suggested American exceptionalism etc. People talked about whether there was sufficient correlation to justify a global weighting or if many firms had a large percent of income from abroad was international investing or global weighting is...
by Noobvestor
Sat Mar 31, 2018 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finished?
Replies: 129
Views: 10218

Re: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finis

I see what you mean... I should have probably elaborated a bit more. So yes while I am interested in crypto or rather curious about it I am studying alot of the fundamentals foundations I have made my first point asking for advice and direction... I was just curious as a newbie I'm hearing this bit...
by Noobvestor
Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finished?
Replies: 129
Views: 10218

Re: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finis

Im not trying to get rich quick at all... although I wouldn't mind, haha. I understand your concerns as thats what the majority of people are looking for in crypto.. I just wanted an easy way to understand it. yes there is alot of information online however the same as with any other topic of discu...
by Noobvestor
Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finished?
Replies: 129
Views: 10218

Re: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finis

It's a lot like asking if Beanie Babies or baseball cards or gold will do well in the future - no one knows. If you don't have a strong understanding of something, don't invest in it. This goes double for small, volatile and relatively new asset classes, like cryptocurrencies. And it goes triple fo...
by Noobvestor
Fri Mar 30, 2018 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10892

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

One rough observation: over the period when Total Stock and Total International have both existed, their monthly correlation has been 0.85%. I think it's reasonable to interpret this as meaning that about 85% of your Total International allocation is not actually doing anything different from your ...
by Noobvestor
Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finished?
Replies: 129
Views: 10218

Re: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finis

It's a lot like asking if Beanie Babies or baseball cards or gold will do well in the future - no one knows. If you don't have a strong understanding of something, don't invest in it. This goes double for small, volatile and relatively new asset classes, like cryptocurrencies. And it goes triple for...
by Noobvestor
Fri Mar 30, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Online meals, anyone do these?
Replies: 28
Views: 3276

Re: Online meals, anyone do these?

Plated is nice - they provide good, fresh ingredients, and it becomes a kind of 'cooking lesson' too - they give instructions, but then you learn how to do new things. Plus they use seasonal vegetables and such, which can introduce you to new things you haven't tried before. And of course, if you wa...
by Noobvestor
Fri Mar 30, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: With new tax brackets when do munis make sense?
Replies: 5
Views: 639

Re: With new tax brackets when do munis make sense?

I hear you, but the NY LT fund is difficult to adequately compare to other funds, as it's more of an intermediate term fund (duration is 6.7 yrs) but categorized as LT. Actually, it's very close in duration (6.9 versus 6.7) to the Vanguard Long-Term Tax Exempt fund, so they're pretty directly compa...
by Noobvestor
Fri Mar 30, 2018 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: With new tax brackets when do munis make sense?
Replies: 5
Views: 639

Re: With new tax brackets when do munis make sense?

First, run a tax-equivalent yield calculation for your state. Consider, say, these three options: (1) Intermediate-Term Treasuries (state tax exempt) (2) Intermediate-Term Tax Exempt (federal tax exempt) (4) Long-Term Tax Exempt (for a better duration comparison for the NY fund) (3) New York Long-Te...
by Noobvestor
Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax-exempt muni bond mix vs. CA intermediate-term tax-exempt muni-bond fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1876

Re: Tax-exempt muni bond mix vs. CA intermediate-term tax-exempt muni-bond fund

I recently switched from intermediate-term tax-exempt to Treasuries in my taxable account. You can see the thread full thread below, but basically: if you compare after-tax yields you don't get much for taking on muni or state-specific risk these days, especially in CA (high taxes) - caveats: I'm in...
by Noobvestor
Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:24 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: San Francisco Mid Peninsula, California Chapter Interest?
Replies: 11
Views: 1657

Re: San Francisco Mid Peninsula, California Chapter Interest?

East Bay here - if it's walking distance of BART, then maybe.
by Noobvestor
Tue Mar 27, 2018 2:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is anyone buying CDs now instead of I bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 3571

Re: Is anyone buying CDs now instead of I bonds?

Yeah, per the previous post: be sure to do tax-equivalent calculations. Also consider your own future - will you have a few years after working but before RMDs kick in, during which time you could cash in the I Bonds and pay less (or no) tax? Something to consider. Also, why did you buy I Bonds? I b...
by Noobvestor
Tue Mar 27, 2018 2:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)
Replies: 29
Views: 2535

Re: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)

I would expect other countries to move UP to our historical numbers, not us down to their historical numbers. But I could be wrong of course. The essay linked in this thread would suggest otherwise. The Paradox of Wealth Summary A recent FAJ article by Laurence Siegel painted a sunny picture of the...
by Noobvestor
Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you DCA'd down and reinvested dividends at Japan's all-time high?
Replies: 14
Views: 1735

Re: What if you DCA'd down and reinvested dividends at Japan's all-time high?

I did a quick run on Portfolio Visualizer. They don't have 'Japan' but they do have 'Pacific', so this will probably underestimate the difference, Variables: Start year 1986 (EDITED). $10,000 added each year. US final balance: $2,888,182, minus inputs = $2,400,000 in returns Pacific final balance: $...
by Noobvestor
Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Treasury Bills vs. I-bonds vs. Intermediate-term tax-exempt muni bonds
Replies: 24
Views: 3600

Re: Treasury Bills vs. I-bonds vs. Intermediate-term tax-exempt muni bonds

I like I-bonds. I use it for emergency money - better interest rate than the bank will ever give you. The only complaint is why do they limit it to $10K a year, and why is the inflation interest being taxe? but can't complaint about the deferred compound interest - wish it has a 50 years and not 30...
by Noobvestor
Thu Mar 15, 2018 2:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling business (website) considerations
Replies: 27
Views: 2377

Re: Selling business (website) considerations

Cap gains: in most cases in my experience (not a lawyer, ask a lawyer, standard caveats, etc.), the majority of a web business sale is going to be categorized as 'goodwill'. That is an intangible asset and will be taxed at cap gains rates at the federal level (state level may vary). Non-compete: aga...
by Noobvestor
Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 21104

Re: Why International again?

"Past results are no guarantee for future returns" It depends. Sometimes our investment decisions are based on the past. The number one reason given for using "passive" instead of "active" is that only a few [actively managed funds] have managed to beat their index counterpart. So, based on past pe...
by Noobvestor
Fri Mar 09, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 21104

Re: Why International again?

I understand it adds diversification--but as far as I can see, it primarily adds volatility to a portfolio. Plus, when I run Portfolio Visualizer comparing US vs Ex-US, the ONLY years Intl wins are 1986-1988. Yes, I know it did well last year. I didnt hold any intl until I got a newsletter from Van...
by Noobvestor
Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 21104

Re: Why International again?

InvestInLife wrote:
Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:39 pm
I understand it adds diversification--but as far as I can see, it primarily adds volatility to a portfolio.
I just noticed this part re-reading your post. According to this Vanguard study, adding between 1% and 60% international decreases volatility:

https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGGEB.pdf
by Noobvestor
Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 21104

Re: Why International again?

... and the story of it reducing risk or providing a "diversification benefit" really hasn't proven justified - it's period dependent - pick a period where it has worked and I'll show you another where it hasn't. Diversification is precisely helpful because some things do better than others over va...
by Noobvestor
Thu Mar 08, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 21104

Re: Why International again?

Plus, when I run Portfolio Visualizer comparing US vs Ex-US, the ONLY years Intl wins are 1986-1988. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Callan_periodic_table_of_investment_returns I think you're running the numbers wrong. Also, international beat US from 2000-2010 (overall, not every year). Long time ...
by Noobvestor
Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 21104

Re: Why International again?

Geographical, economic, political and currency diversification. Also: hindsight is 20/20 - some countries do better than others, and it depends on period. If you think the US is exceptional and the market can't price country-specific risks/returns, then your crystal ball is clearer than mine.