Search found 133 matches

by NibbanaBanana
Wed May 24, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond vs Total International Bond
Replies: 11
Views: 685

Re: Total Bond vs Total International Bond

Yes. Given those distributions it certainly does appear to be returning more than 70 bps. I have great respect for Mr. Bogle and Bernstein but I also have great respect for VG's research. I would expect that costs are coming down. I would tend toward just dismissing international bonds except that t...
by NibbanaBanana
Wed May 24, 2017 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 51
Views: 4001

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

I think that the US has had years of quantitive easing, i.e. printing money with no backing, and yet no appreciable official inflation. There is a huge amount of pent-up inflation waiting in the wings for the economy to get better. I think stocks are running up because the market realizes this. I d...
by NibbanaBanana
Wed May 24, 2017 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond vs Total International Bond
Replies: 11
Views: 685

Total Bond vs Total International Bond

I don't really know anything about bonds. And in particular, I can't understand why Vanguard Total Bond Index VBTLX is yielding 241 bp while Vanguard Total International Bond Index VTABX is only yielding 74 bp. Their duration is similar at 6.1 vs 7.8. VG has added VTABX to their TR and LS funds. I c...
by NibbanaBanana
Tue May 23, 2017 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puzzle for you: Stocks returns vs. Economic Growth
Replies: 36
Views: 2386

Re: Puzzle for you: Stocks returns vs. Economic Growth

Interesting thread. I remember the Asian financial crisis. It rocked the US market a bit too as I remember. I would not have guessed correctly and would have put China in the #2 spot. From what little I know, India doesn't respect international intellectual property: ie copyrights and patents. I hav...
by NibbanaBanana
Mon May 22, 2017 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 8148

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

NiceUnparticularMan wrote:
In other words, I don't think the rational focus of the argument is on whether U.S.-based global-weight investors have too much diversification. I think it is better focused on whether they might have too little, and what to do about it.



Okay. Any suggestions?
by NibbanaBanana
Sun May 21, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 8148

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

simplesauce wrote:* Better accounting

* Less fraud and stock manipulation in the U.S.

* U.S. legal environment



As far as I know, fraud, stock manipulation and bogus accounting are what caused the last two 50%+ market crashes of 2002 and 2008. Are you saying that other countries are worse?
by NibbanaBanana
Sat May 20, 2017 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 65
Views: 5100

Re: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel

Overall, I thought this was a very interesting presentation visually. I would take the 6.7% average for US as a placeholder for future predictions with a HUGE grain of salt. That is NOT the same as betting against America. I don't think that Siegel was suggesting at all that one should expect U.S. ...
by NibbanaBanana
Sat May 20, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else track the value of their investments by discounting the value of equities?
Replies: 62
Views: 3348

Re: Anyone else track the value of their investments by discounting the value of equities?

This wouldn't be too hard a calculation for me as I'm just about 100% equity. I like to keep track of things this way. I compare my dividends each year with the previous year and compare the number of shares I own of stock (split adjusted) and funds with the previous year. That helps me filter out t...
by NibbanaBanana
Thu May 18, 2017 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme
Replies: 27
Views: 1738

Re: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme

You may be right. I almost fell out of my chair when I saw that number. I could see the mid cap growth index being around 40. the only time I"ve seen numbers like that were on individual stocks, never a fund. If correct Vanguard needs to start spending some of the in-flow of cash they have bee...
by NibbanaBanana
Wed May 17, 2017 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 40
Views: 2365

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

used to use Yahoo Finance some years ago, really liked it. Then they changed the format and it just downright sucked. Odd scripts kept freezing my browser, it was loaded w/ ads, clunky, detailed info I used to use was gone etc.... Now I no longer go there. Exactly the same. MSN doesn't seem to caus...
by NibbanaBanana
Mon May 15, 2017 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Will Burst the Next Bubble?
Replies: 66
Views: 6233

Re: What Will Burst the Next Bubble?

As Vanguard says, high valuations do not, in themselves, lead to market drops. That the bull market has lasted so long isn't a reason either. See Gambler's fallacy https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Behavioral_pitfalls. There are always plenty of things to worry about. That's why they pay you the big b...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun May 14, 2017 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"
Replies: 37
Views: 3305

Re: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"

"We simply do not know what the future holds, and we must accept the self-evident fact that historic stock market returns have absolutely nothing in common with actuarial tables." - John Bogle
by NibbanaBanana
Sun May 14, 2017 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott [buy emerging market equities vs. US stocks]
Replies: 40
Views: 2935

Re: Rob Arnott

I went into the 2000-2002 bear market with about 80% stocks and 20% bonds. My losses, peak to trough, were about 32%. The brokerage IRA with the individual stocks dropped the same as the broad market and rebounded when the market rebounded. The other retirement accounts that I had did better. My lo...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun May 14, 2017 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott [buy emerging market equities vs. US stocks]
Replies: 40
Views: 2935

Re: Rob Arnott

That said, you can avoid market bubbles with individual stocks. Which is a good thing. I would never make this claim. What I will say is that you can avoid the worst of the damage by keeping an eye on value. Refusing to chase what is hot and refusing to buy what is speculative will help limit the d...
by NibbanaBanana
Sat May 13, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott [buy emerging market equities vs. US stocks]
Replies: 40
Views: 2935

Re: Rob Arnott

My opinion, from reading this and your other posts, is that you are way overthinking this and making it harder than it needs to be for a "beginner". The most important decision you need to make is your asset allocation, in a nutshell what percentage of stocks do you want and what percenta...
by NibbanaBanana
Fri May 12, 2017 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Think Behavioral Anomalies Will Persist?
Replies: 40
Views: 3064

Re: Do You Think Behavioral Anomalies Will Persist?

Exactly. Great strides are being made in artificial intelligence, such as in deep learning. If a significant enough number of dollars are managed by AI systems, human-induced anomalies will be eaten in microseconds. Exactly how will they be "eaten in microseconds"? If you've got a market ...
by NibbanaBanana
Fri May 12, 2017 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett/IBM
Replies: 73
Views: 5853

Re: Buffett/IBM

I worked for IBM from 2001-2015. Fortunate ............. of a true turnaround. Realistically it's going to take a different CEO. JMHO. This is an excellent commentary on what I see is wrong in corporate America. Too much focus on the short term results, too much focus on managing the stock price ra...
by NibbanaBanana
Fri May 12, 2017 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Motley Fool - Million Dollar Portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 2042

Re: Motley Fool - Million Dollar Portfolio

When I hear of Motley Fool I think about the optimism of the mid and late 1990's-also Beardstown Ladies It seems like everyone was interested in stock investing and everyone was "making money". Also the AAII was popular among some people that I encountered at work- seems to me that there ...
by NibbanaBanana
Fri May 12, 2017 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Think Behavioral Anomalies Will Persist?
Replies: 40
Views: 3064

Re: Do You Think Behavioral Anomalies Will Persist?

Exactly. Great strides are being made in artificial intelligence, such as in deep learning. If a significant enough number of dollars are managed by AI systems, human-induced anomalies will be eaten in microseconds. Exactly how will they be "eaten in microseconds"? If you've got a market ...
by NibbanaBanana
Thu May 11, 2017 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Think Behavioral Anomalies Will Persist?
Replies: 40
Views: 3064

Re: Do You Think Behavioral Anomalies Will Persist?

2500 years ago in India, a great sage said that people were motivated by three things: greed, aversion and ignorance. He also said that there will come a time (now?) that our business, academic and political leaders are not worthy of their positions.
by NibbanaBanana
Wed May 10, 2017 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Brokerage Account
Replies: 9
Views: 1173

Re: Vanguard Brokerage Account

It was really confusing and I'm sure I didn't completely understand it but I think the "upgrade" had something to do with new regulations requiring the federal money market fund rather than the prime (or other non federal) money market fund. All said, it's nicer because you don't have to w...
by NibbanaBanana
Tue May 09, 2017 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend stocks vs S&P 500
Replies: 24
Views: 2481

Re: Dividend stocks vs S&P 500

I have picked up most of these over the years. Some on the cheap, some for full price. Some through DRIP plans when they had them back in the old days. Looking at the list of drop outs from 2007, I can say that most were from the financial sector many of which I also owned and got burned on. I gradu...
by NibbanaBanana
Tue May 09, 2017 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?
Replies: 72
Views: 9119

Re: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?

Yea, like a cheap bottle of scotch when the market crashes. I generally prefer rye, but some amount of diversification could make sense . . . . For diversification purposes, you should probably make sure to get a large range of age statements! I also diversify with Canadian stock. I'm not aware of ...
by NibbanaBanana
Tue May 09, 2017 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?
Replies: 72
Views: 9119

Re: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?

There is a savings rate where a 30/70 does the trick. It might mean your house is smaller, you cars are less fancy, you work longer than you prefer, it might even mean you have to move or go back to school. But there is a way to do it. Working longer to slightly optimize my Sharpe ratio, which does...
by NibbanaBanana
Mon May 08, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett/IBM
Replies: 73
Views: 5853

Re: Buffett/IBM

This is exactly why I stopped putting new money into index funds and started buying individual stocks again. When I saw that the p/e of Amazon was over 180 I almost choked. It may be that Amazon will turn out to be the best investment in the history of capital markets but I'm willing to pass on the...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun May 07, 2017 6:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do Bogleheads buy cars?
Replies: 71
Views: 7090

Re: How do Bogleheads buy cars?

If you have to have an expensive looking car then I would buy used, needs repair, and fix it myself. I buy the absolute cheapest car available in the market regardless of manufacturer, and get no options whatsoever. I do all maintenance and repairs myself and keep them running until they rust to pie...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun May 07, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Boglehead Guide to Buying Individual Stocks
Replies: 85
Views: 6628

Re: A Boglehead Guide to Buying Individual Stocks

Nedsaid: I have entertained the idea of selling my individual stocks but I keep noticing that a lot of them had dividend yields even higher than the yield of the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF. I got to thinking this, did I want yield with zero principal growth potential or do I want yield with a g...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun May 07, 2017 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett/IBM
Replies: 73
Views: 5853

Re: Buffett/IBM

I think Buffett's intuition told him that IBM was not a good idea. I think he made a rare mistake by getting enamored by some aspect of the company. Maybe the name, maybe the business plan, maybe the executives, maybe some new technology like Watson. I wonder if he just plain bought because he like...
by NibbanaBanana
Sat May 06, 2017 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puerto Rico Bonds Bankrupcy
Replies: 37
Views: 3826

Re: Puerto Rico Bonds Bankrupcy

Wasn't the tipping point of the great financial crisis when the tiny island nation of Iceland went bankrupt?
by NibbanaBanana
Fri May 05, 2017 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Boglehead Guide to Buying Individual Stocks
Replies: 85
Views: 6628

Re: A Boglehead Guide to Buying Individual Stocks

I'm convinced that beating the market is incredibly hard, that most investors can't do it, and that I am one of those investors. But suppose that an otherwise financially secure Boglehead were to set out to beat the market by buying individual stocks with a small portion of his portfolio (say 10%)....
by NibbanaBanana
Tue May 02, 2017 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another "Why Bonds?" / Buffett 90/10 thread..
Replies: 66
Views: 7741

Re: Another "Why Bonds?" / Buffett 90/10 thread..

Did I say anything about a safe withdrawal rate? No, I simply challenged Buffett's implication that 10% in short-term government bonds would necessarily be enough to avoid selling stocks "at the wrong time". Here again is the Buffett quote from the OP: And the reason for the 10% in short-...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Apr 30, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another "Why Bonds?" / Buffett 90/10 thread..
Replies: 66
Views: 7741

Re: Another "Why Bonds?" / Buffett 90/10 thread..

Another point I'd like to make is from 1966-1982 the stock market return was 0.0. This is not correct. You are confusing changes in the DJIA index with "return" and they are not the same. The return of stocks over time includes changes in price and dividends paid. The Dow Jones Industrial...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Apr 30, 2017 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pressure relief valve on hot water heater issue
Replies: 55
Views: 2857

Re: Pressure relief valve on hot water heater issue

I just had this happen last fall. The expansion tanks have to have a bladder. That's how they work. The large one at your pump will last a long time because it only sees cold water. The small one at the boiler is exposed to very hot water and will not have a long life. Put a tire gauge on the valve....
by NibbanaBanana
Sat Apr 22, 2017 7:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best surface for garage, epoxy, polished concrete, something else?
Replies: 24
Views: 2721

Re: Best surface for garage, epoxy, polished concrete, something else?

I had new concrete and applied a good coat of Thompson's Water Seal and let it soak in. It worked excellently for keeping the concrete dust from coming up and was very cheap. Also helps to prevent stains from oil and grease and other auto fluids.
by NibbanaBanana
Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article-Argument against Buffet and Bogle's International Advice
Replies: 36
Views: 4207

Re: Article-Argument against Buffet and Bogle's International Advice

I have a small allocation to international equities because I value the diversification. I also understand and hate that it exposes me to the risk of currency fluctuations on top of the normal market risk that comes from investing in U.S. based companies. That said, I intend to stay the course and ...
by NibbanaBanana
Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Quick Dividend Automatic Reinvesting Question
Replies: 6
Views: 727

Re: Quick Dividend Automatic Reinvesting Question

S&P dividends are remarkably robust. From 1960 - 2000 there were only a couple instances where dividends were cut, and by less than 5%. In the 2002 crash they were cut about 5% but recovered quickly. In the 2008 crash the entire financial sector stopped paying dividends but the S&P dividends...
by NibbanaBanana
Tue Apr 18, 2017 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is all the money flowing into index funds bad?
Replies: 21
Views: 3051

Re: Is all the money flowing into index funds bad?

Seems to me that indexing effectively decreases the float of stocks overall. This should increase market volatility.
by NibbanaBanana
Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me
Replies: 175
Views: 11787

Re: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me

There is a real possibility that the stock market could lose 90%, or even 99%, of its value, and it could take decades or centuries to recover. Is it likely to happen at some time in "future history"? I don't know, but I think so, given enough time. Is it likely to happen in our lifetime?...
by NibbanaBanana
Wed Apr 12, 2017 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Extreme Frugality vs Living Life - Where do you draw the line?
Replies: 77
Views: 8758

Re: Extreme Frugality vs Living Life - Where do you draw the line?

It depends on if you think buying things, experiences, etc, or consumerism and materialism, is going to bring you lasting happiness. As opposed to hoarding money? If you advocate giving away all your money then I think your argument holds more water. I think that some people on here, perhaps myself...
by NibbanaBanana
Wed Apr 12, 2017 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me
Replies: 175
Views: 11787

Re: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me

I agree with the OP. I wrote a rebalancing simulation code. I didn't look at volatility, only cumulative returns. The bottom line was, how effective rebalancing is at improving returns depends on how negatively correlated the two asset classes are and how close their long term returns are individua...
by NibbanaBanana
Tue Apr 11, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me
Replies: 175
Views: 11787

Re: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me

I agree with the OP. I wrote a rebalancing simulation code. I didn't look at volatility, only cumulative returns. The bottom line was, how effective rebalancing is at improving returns depends on how negatively correlated the two asset classes are and how close their long term returns are individual...
by NibbanaBanana
Tue Apr 11, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund Equity Characteristics
Replies: 0
Views: 237

Mutual Fund Equity Characteristics

The Portfolio & Management tab of Vanguards mutual fund description lists equity characteristics. p/e, p/b, return on equity, etc. Are these numbers portfolio capitalization weighted or are they equal weighted averages?
by NibbanaBanana
Tue Apr 11, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Extreme Frugality vs Living Life - Where do you draw the line?
Replies: 77
Views: 8758

Re: Extreme Frugality vs Living Life - Where do you draw the line?

It depends on if you think buying things, experiences, etc, or consumerism and materialism, is going to bring you lasting happiness.
by NibbanaBanana
Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: risk in ratings
Replies: 13
Views: 759

Re: risk in ratings

The "assets" were NINJA mortgages and the ratings agencies ratings were the key to the whole pyramid scheme. Talk about letting the fox guard the hen house. It's funny how people believe what they want to believe. I saw Sheila Bair, former chair of the FDIC, interviewed last year and she s...
by NibbanaBanana
Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Death of retail/malls to affect REITs?
Replies: 69
Views: 6645

Re: Death of retail/malls to affect REITs?

The new outdoor malls in our area are packed every weekend. They are the ones that are killing the old malls, as far as I can tell. When I need to buy pants I still go to the mall. I am not convinced that Amazon is for real, either (P/E of 185). Who knows, maybe it is a "buy low" opportun...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Apr 09, 2017 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why are the Vanguard Target Retirement Funds so heavily invested in International
Replies: 24
Views: 3300

Re: Why are the Vanguard Target Retirement Funds so heavily invested in International

csmith1211 wrote:I'm ok with it and won't re-allocate but International funds have struggled recently in comparison to US funds.


Exactly why you want to be in international now.
by NibbanaBanana
Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Taking-In $2 Billion a Day in New Cash
Replies: 30
Views: 5099

Re: Vanguard Taking-In $2 Billion a Day in New Cash

Video by Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-04-07/vanguard-taking-in-2-billion-a-day-in-new-cash-video "Vanguard Taking-In $2 Billion a Day in New Cash" Vanguard taking in $2 Billion a day in new cash in Q1 2017. Where is the money coming from? Is it being pulled from o...
by NibbanaBanana
Thu Apr 06, 2017 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Recommended Portfolio
Replies: 31
Views: 3783

Re: Vanguard Recommended Portfolio

This was in the OP. One of my main goals is to develop portfolio my wife can feel comfortable with when I am not here and I don't mean on vacation. I am a big fan of the 3 fund portfolio but do like their recommended bond type diversity. Now it sounds like you're considering leaving the 2 IRA's in t...
by NibbanaBanana
Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Buffet likes S&P 500 Index over a TSM Index Fund?
Replies: 45
Views: 5386

Re: Why Buffet likes S&P 500 Index over a TSM Index Fund?

S17C wrote:Why does Buffet (and others) prefer S&P 500 Index over a Total Stock Market index fund?


S&P 500 pays a higher dividend.
by NibbanaBanana
Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got my second comma -- what is this anticlimactic feeling?
Replies: 55
Views: 6700

Re: Got my second comma -- what is this anticlimactic feeling?

KlingKlang wrote:I know exactly what you mean. As far as motivation treat yourself to a double shot of Johnnie Walker Black :beer at $1,000,000 and every $100,000 after that. After $2,500,000 switch to Johnnie Walker Blue. :sharebeer


Money doesn't buy happiness now does it. But a good scotch on the other hand.

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