Search found 229 matches

by MrKnight
Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Replicating Index with Individual Stocks vs Index Fund
Replies: 28
Views: 2370

Re: Replicating Index with Individual Stocks vs Index Fund

Eeek! That is not true at all. You are probably thinking of studies that created A LARGE NUMBER of random portfolios and found that, on average, their aggregate performance converges towards the market. An individual portfolio that size would be expected to vary widely from the market. See link abo...
by MrKnight
Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Replicating Index with Individual Stocks vs Index Fund
Replies: 28
Views: 2370

Re: Replicating Index with Individual Stocks vs Index Fund

20 randomly selected stocks virtually replicates the return/risk of a index fund. After 20ish thereally is diminishing returns. This was widely quoted going back two or three decades, but recent academic work has contradicted this belief. You cannot have low risk with 20 stocks. Which academic stud...
by MrKnight
Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Replicating Index with Individual Stocks vs Index Fund
Replies: 28
Views: 2370

Re: Replicating Index with Individual Stocks vs Index Fund

20 randomly selected stocks virtually replicates the return/risk of a index fund. After 20ish thereally is diminishing returns.
by MrKnight
Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - 5 Ominous Signs for the Securities Industry
Replies: 12
Views: 1514

Re: Bloomberg - 5 Ominous Signs for the Securities Industry

Toons wrote:The Internet changed it all.
:happy



Yup, the rise of the internet triggered a corresponding uptick in investing. A real game changer.
by MrKnight
Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $600,000. Now what?
Replies: 55
Views: 9968

Re: $600,000. Now what?

Not to steal the OP's thunder, but my Vanguard retirement account has generated 15.5% annualized returns over the past 5 years with a 100% equity allocation to Small Cap Value index + Total Market index, and a pure vanguard small cap value index fund has generated returns in excess of 16% annualized...
by MrKnight
Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $600,000. Now what?
Replies: 55
Views: 9968

Re: $600,000. Now what?

You've done great! Congratulations! Personally, I'd advise to take your winnings and invest it into passive index funds, and perhaps leave a sum to continue playing with (maybe $100K?) and see what happens... no need to continue risking it all. How much do you save monthly now. You said you started ...
by MrKnight
Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 189
Views: 12195

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

Tell you the truth, I am not sure I would want to work for the company. Prior compensation is not germaine to present. I am not sure if it is germane or not. Most companies seem to use prior salary as a baseline so they know what to offer an applicant. On the other hand, I think I read a couple sta...
by MrKnight
Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 189
Views: 12195

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

The implications for having graduated into it the financial crisis lasted for years as each future employer based my new salary on my prior salary. Could you not "inflate" your previous salary so that you could at least earn a fair wage at your new job? Or did they somehow verify that inf...
by MrKnight
Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 189
Views: 12195

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

Yes, even ideological politicians can eventually come to their senses in the face of imminent disasters - like I said up thread, no guarantee they will have the political courage to do so the next time. I don't think they "came to their senses." I think they were scared to death by Bernak...
by MrKnight
Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 189
Views: 12195

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

I probably could get away doing that, yes, but I was always truthful when asked. I have never seen it personally but I have been told that some jobs will verify your prior salary. I imagine these companies are few and far between however. I agree that lying isn't right, but it doesn't seem right wh...
by MrKnight
Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 189
Views: 12195

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

The implications for having graduated into it the financial crisis lasted for years as each future employer based my new salary on my prior salary. Could you not "inflate" your previous salary so that you could at least earn a fair wage at your new job? Or did they somehow verify that inf...
by MrKnight
Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 189
Views: 12195

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

Well, I wasn't investing yet but I had graduated from college into it in 2009. A 2009 graduate experienced a very different job market compared to even a 2008 and 2010 graduate, and I don't think anyone really realizes how bad it was for 2009 graduates unless they experienced it first hand. I never ...
by MrKnight
Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How will the market perform in 2017?
Replies: 45
Views: 3187

Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

My predictions that is subject to change: Irrational euphoria, deregulation, tax cuts, and economic stimulus will lead to a good year for the markets in 2017 like how it was for 2016. Markets will start to cool in 2018. By 2019 we may begin encroaching on a recession... recession has been until this...
by MrKnight
Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Experienced investor: For your portfolio, at what point compound interest really kick in for you? $500k? $1million+?
Replies: 35
Views: 4431

Re: Experienced investor: For your portfolio, at what point compound interest really kick in for you? $500k? $1million+

I think it depends on your investments and rate of return. If you hold a 100% bond portfolio you probably will need more principal to feel the effects of compounding interest compared to 100% stock portfolio. For myself with a 100% stock portfolio, I began to feel the effects of compounding at $100,...
by MrKnight
Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing in a Masters and Ph.D?
Replies: 101
Views: 5057

Re: Investing in a Masters and Ph.D?

First I would like to start by stating that I love that you wish to go back and earn a masters and Ph.D! Financially, it does not make much sense for those fields however. Are there alternative opportunities for you to academically stimulate your mind? Perhaps earning some designations or certificat...
by MrKnight
Fri Dec 30, 2016 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are International Markets overdue for great gains?
Replies: 43
Views: 3489

Re: Are International Markets overdue for great gains?

My objection is this rationale: If International has been growing at 4% CAGR, then it does so because that growth is what the international market grows at more or less. International stocks are not another version of U.S. stocks. Slower growth now does mean faster growth later. Slower growth now o...
by MrKnight
Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:38 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: How Did You Become A Boglehead? What Led You Here?
Replies: 138
Views: 10398

Re: How Did You Become A Boglehead? What Led You Here?

I became aware of the website through the finance courses I was taking in undergraduate (2005-2009). Some of the books mentioned bogleheads and this forum. So I popped in to check it out and left. I didn't register at the time however, at the time I was still heavily involved with studying for vario...
by MrKnight
Sat Dec 10, 2016 11:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Men's Fashion - Best Bang for Buck
Replies: 79
Views: 7163

Re: Men's Fashion - Best Bang for Buck

I purchase from Kohls Crofts & Barrow 100% cotton shirts when they are on sale and with 30% off coupons+khols cash. This drops the price down to the $20-$30 range for shirts.

I think the shirts are pretty good value .
by MrKnight
Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will increasing levels of automation propel developed markets ahead?
Replies: 3
Views: 420

Will increasing levels of automation propel developed markets ahead?

I have been contemplating the economic impacts of automation and wish to what others think on the subject. What will the economic impact of increasing levels of automation on the global market? Automated factories and production, automated vehicles, etc. Will increasing levels of automation result i...
by MrKnight
Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks over bought as of late?
Replies: 17
Views: 1726

Re: Are stocks over bought as of late?

"We've had such a run and the market is very overbought," said Cramer, portfolio manager of the Action Alerts PLUS Charitable Trust, in an interview at the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday. he said that when the S&P was at 2152 in July 2015, its now at 2200. what does that mean to...
by MrKnight
Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Contest leaders as S&P 500 Index makes new high
Replies: 17
Views: 2761

Re: Boglehead Contest leaders as S&P 500 Index makes new high

It's safe to say that the current leadership board will change drastically by the time this contest ends.
by MrKnight
Wed Nov 23, 2016 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: small cap value? overplayed?
Replies: 30
Views: 3677

Re: small cap value? overplayed?

OP, You cannot buy confidence. So, you either read enough and convinced that small cap value is worth tilting or not. And, you need to be sufficiently convinced since it may under-perform for a very long time and you may lose as opposed to gain from tilting. 8% of my portfolio is in the small cap v...
by MrKnight
Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: small cap value? overplayed?
Replies: 30
Views: 3677

Re: small cap value? overplayed?

OP, You cannot buy confidence. So, you either read enough and convinced that small cap value is worth tilting or not. And, you need to be sufficiently convinced since it may under-perform for a very long time and you may lose as opposed to gain from tilting. 8% of my portfolio is in the small cap v...
by MrKnight
Tue Nov 01, 2016 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your thoughts on implications of increasing automation of manufacturing.
Replies: 23
Views: 1760

Re: Your thoughts on implications of increasing automation of manufacturing.

The followup questions is: Assuming that automation results in less outsourcing of jobs... does that environment promote equivalent growth between developed economies and emerging economies? Or will developed economies surge ahead? This would have some investing implications I imagine if one is inte...
by MrKnight
Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your thoughts on implications of increasing automation of manufacturing.
Replies: 23
Views: 1760

Your thoughts on implications of increasing automation of manufacturing.

What are your thoughts on what the implications of increased automation of manufacturing? Will increased automation continue to promote the trend of outsourcing manufacturing internationally? Or will there be a reversal of this trend as human cost of manufacturing drops and there is instead a increa...
by MrKnight
Fri Oct 21, 2016 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does it matter what type of college one goes to?
Replies: 250
Views: 15513

Re: Does it matter what type of college one goes to?

I'm an attorney and where you went to law school never stops mattering. I also won't go to a doctor whose medical school isn't a name I recognize. I went to a name law school, and I've worked at places were almost everyone else did as well. My clerkship came out of an internship I got with an alum....
by MrKnight
Fri Oct 21, 2016 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Jack Bogle wouldn’t risk investing outside the US"
Replies: 101
Views: 7638

Re: "Jack Bogle wouldn’t risk investing outside the US"

Don't agree with Jack at all on this one. Maybe it makes sense at his age (87) but not mine (42). Way too much uncertainty. With debt at 100% of GDP and unfunded liabilities manyfold greater, I'm not putting all my eggs in this basket. Already my human capital, home, and bonds are 100% invested in ...
by MrKnight
Fri Oct 21, 2016 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How the Internet Destroyed Actively Managed Funds
Replies: 24
Views: 2694

Re: How the Internet Destroyed Actively Managed Funds

I doubt the internet has all that much to do with it. Morningstar has long been available at most public libraries in hard-copy. There are far more web sites where you can get bad information on picking stocks than you can get advice to buy indexes. If anything has benefited from the internet it is...
by MrKnight
Thu Oct 20, 2016 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - The Dying Business of Picking Stocks
Replies: 38
Views: 6123

Re: WSJ - The Dying Business of Picking Stocks

I am concerned over this as well. It reminds me of the breakout strategies for buying stocks that were profitable many years ago, before they became widely known. Almost any strategy that becomes widely known, at least in the stock market, ceases to work very well. Whether this observation can be a...
by MrKnight
Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is information a bad thing for returns??
Replies: 42
Views: 2081

Re: Is information a bad thing for returns??

... Those adhering to the Boglehead investment method implicitly subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis model because it is fundamental for the Boglehead investment method to function. False on its face. The Boglehead investment method, as you put it, relies on the Cost Matters Hypothesis , n...
by MrKnight
Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is information a bad thing for returns??
Replies: 42
Views: 2081

Re: Is information a bad thing for returns??

... Those adhering to the Boglehead investment method implicitly subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis model because it is fundamental for the Boglehead investment method to function. False on its face. The Boglehead investment method, as you put it, relies on the Cost Matters Hypothesis , n...
by MrKnight
Sun Oct 16, 2016 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is information a bad thing for returns??
Replies: 42
Views: 2081

Re: Is information a bad thing for returns??

Yep. Markets are certainly more efficient and it's a less exclusive club. Good thing for the world, bad thing for investor returns! Please share your (non-anecdotal) evidence that a more efficient market leads to lower returns. By definition, a completely efficient market eliminates the potential f...
by MrKnight
Fri Oct 14, 2016 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is information a bad thing for returns??
Replies: 42
Views: 2081

Re: Is information a bad thing for returns??

Yep. Markets are certainly more efficient and it's a less exclusive club. Good thing for the world, bad thing for investor returns! Please share your (non-anecdotal) evidence that a more efficient market leads to lower returns. By definition, a completely efficient market eliminates the potential f...
by MrKnight
Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 29 years old, just beginning to invest, 38k salary.
Replies: 20
Views: 2927

Re: 29 years old, just beginning to invest, 38k salary.

Salaries sure have gone down a lot over the years. Low level corporate jobs paid about that over 30 years ago, not inflation adjusted, but that actual amount. Tell me about it. I'm the same age as the op, graduated in 2009 with double major in accounting and finance in the NY NJ I started at as a t...
by MrKnight
Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index
Replies: 55
Views: 8925

Re: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index

Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index Where did he recommend that? I only saw where he instructed the trustee for his wife's assets to invest his wife's assets that way after he is gone. +1 I think either people can't read or don't bother. Atctually.... W...
by MrKnight
Mon Sep 26, 2016 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here we go again
Replies: 36
Views: 3915

Re: Here we go again

Huh? I've held International (50% of stocks) for about a year and I'm back where I started! The 5-year graph still looks sickly. The 1-year happens to start at a trough. Unless you bought at rock bottom International is as unhappy as ever. Yeah this. I increased my international holdings about 1-2 ...
by MrKnight
Mon Sep 26, 2016 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here we go again
Replies: 36
Views: 3915

Re: Here we go again

Yup, I purchased all the way down and caught on the upswing. That said I am not personally too certain that I hold a favorable view with international holdings... particularly Europe... but they have been so beaten down and have not experienced the same recovery that the US did that I felt that it i...
by MrKnight
Fri Sep 23, 2016 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fundamental Difference in Roth and Traditional 401k
Replies: 49
Views: 3381

Re: Fundamental Difference in Roth and Traditional 401k

I always thought I understood the advantages of a Roth. Investments grow tax-free...that should be an automatic win, right? If I invest $1,000 today, and it grows to $10,000 by the time I retire, I'd rather pay taxes on the $1,000 than the $10,000, right? No. That actually makes no difference. Payi...
by MrKnight
Fri Sep 23, 2016 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can adult child gift money back to parent?
Replies: 31
Views: 3850

Re: Can adult child gift money back to parent?

Exclusion for gift for 2016 is $14,000 annually per person. So you and your spouse combined can give your child $28,000 tax free consequences annually. So you're fine if you don't go over this exclusion amount during the year.
by MrKnight
Thu Sep 22, 2016 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 267
Views: 19311

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

So why have any bonds AT ALL during the accumulation phase since one does not need AT THAT TIME the safety Bonds provide? Couldn't one switch some assets from 100% stocks to some of it in Bonds at (or close to) retirement age? Because doing so is a form of market timing in itself. Reallocating your...
by MrKnight
Fri Sep 09, 2016 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1929 crash: 4.5 not 25 years for recovery
Replies: 62
Views: 9969

Re: 1929 crash: 4.5 not 25 years for recovery

tennisplyr wrote:Why does this have any relevance, who invests 100% of their portfolio in stocks.....not me.


I'm at 100% and I'm fairly certain that many others are too.
by MrKnight
Fri Sep 09, 2016 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it typical to wait ~24 months for a meaningful/significant raise at work?
Replies: 45
Views: 4200

Re: Is it typical to wait ~24 months for a meaningful/significant raise at work?

CoL raises is pretty standard outside of industries or businesses that have very structured promotion schedules. You will have to move to get your market worth is usually. I believe that prior to the financial crisis it used to be a bit different with promotions and higher raises being more normal, ...
by MrKnight
Fri Sep 09, 2016 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If everyone saved enough for retirement, wouldn't there just be inflation?
Replies: 38
Views: 4647

Re: If everyone saved enough for retirement, wouldn't there just be inflation?

There appears to be a fundamental misunderstanding of inflation drivers here. The net immediate effect of everyone suddenly increasing savings for retirement would be deflationary pressures followed by a new equilibrium. Inflation is caused by 2 main factors: 1. Increase in monetary supply absent of...
by MrKnight
Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index
Replies: 55
Views: 8925

Re: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index

He says S&P 500 because it's simple and most people no what it is. You will probably end up with approximately the same ending balance investing in a s&p 500 index compared to total market index, it is somewhat inconsequential. For most people anywhere close to or in retirement, 90% S&P...
by MrKnight
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index
Replies: 55
Views: 8925

Re: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index

He says S&P 500 because it's simple and most people no what it is. You will probably end up with approximately the same ending balance investing in a s&p 500 index compared to total market index, it is somewhat inconsequential. For most people anywhere close to or in retirement, 90% S&P...
by MrKnight
Thu Aug 18, 2016 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index
Replies: 55
Views: 8925

Re: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index

He says S&P 500 because it's simple and most people no what it is. You will probably end up with approximately the same ending balance investing in a s&p 500 index compared to total market index, it is somewhat inconsequential.
by MrKnight
Wed Aug 17, 2016 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has your workplace transitioned to "open/collaborative space?"
Replies: 85
Views: 8551

Re: Has your workplace transitioned to "open/collaborative space?"

I'm an architect and our office has a large open studio in the rear. It has 4 workstations that all face a wall or window. So the visual distrsctiins are relatively minor (other than my large double window that faces the street). Usually it's just me back there, but we've had as many as three with ...
by MrKnight
Wed Aug 17, 2016 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has your workplace transitioned to "open/collaborative space?"
Replies: 85
Views: 8551

Re: Has your workplace transitioned to "open/collaborative space?"

It's just another sign that the U.S. lifestyle is on the fast track to third world conditions. My father who is an immigrant used to point out how you can tell the difference in America's wealth and success by the work place conditions of America compared to many second/third wold nations. He would...
by MrKnight
Sun Jul 31, 2016 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Tipping Practice?
Replies: 130
Views: 7271

Re: New Tipping Practice?

Before you lecture me, I worked for a $1/hr for a few years as a teenager; and I never made a decent wage until I was a year out of college. I know about getting paid peanuts, but I never assumed it would be forever; and I never expected anyone to feel sorry for me and tip me just because I earned ...

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