Search found 264 matches

by MrKnight
Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Bull Market could last years
Replies: 89
Views: 9994

Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Bull markets usually end only after the economy has run hot for a while. Annualized the past 10 years have been modest. I don't see any reason for a recession until that changes.
by MrKnight
Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 685
Views: 30571

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

So... I decided to take a look at the chart at noted that I'm at second place.

Nice! I wonder if I was ever first. Hopefully it doesn't move from now until the end of the year.
by MrKnight
Tue Sep 26, 2017 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Certified Financial Planner (CFP) ???
Replies: 26
Views: 2997

Re: Certified Financial Planner (CFP) ???

Probably better than someone without. At least shows a commitment to learning.
by MrKnight
Sun Sep 24, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth vs traditional 401k
Replies: 31
Views: 2684

Re: Roth vs traditional 401k

One thing to note is that if your maximizing your contribution you would effectively be placing more money into your 401k with a Roth than a traditional IRA due to the tax effect leaving more room for contributions. 18k after tax contribution is more than 18k before tax contribution, at a 39% tax br...
by MrKnight
Sat Sep 23, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Asking for no wedding gifts
Replies: 72
Views: 4569

Re: Asking for no wedding gifts

I'm with Gill. Requesting cash only is not classy. There is a lot of etiquette involved with weddings. I've seen a lot of people do online registries so people buy things that they actually need/want. Requesting no gifts might even offend some people that want to give you a gift. It is understandab...
by MrKnight
Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why can't the future of stocks be predicted
Replies: 61
Views: 3647

Re: Why can't the future of stocks be predicted

Why can't the future of stocks be predicted, considering the fact that stocks should follow the laws of economy which you would think are based on rational actions Knowing that the price will change tomorrow causes it to change today. You can never be aware of what the price will be at a later ting...
by MrKnight
Sat Aug 26, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do when a parent's money runs out?
Replies: 218
Views: 31892

Re: What to do when a parent's money runs out?

My thoughts is don't let your parents mistakes burden you.

But I haven't spoken to my parents in years so take from that what you will.

She can't start working again?
by MrKnight
Sat Aug 19, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Jobs that pay over $100,000
Replies: 157
Views: 16868

Re: Jobs that pay over $100,000

I work 70% as an engineer and 30% at the local university. Amongst other things, I have taught pre-engineering math, i.e. math for those who want to go into engineering, but aren't qualified for calculus 1. They pretty much enter w/o being confident in basic algebra. About 60% pass (it's pass/fail)...
by MrKnight
Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Jobs that pay over $100,000
Replies: 157
Views: 16868

Re: Jobs that pay over $100,000

No he wouldn't have to do your (1) or (2) to get to 100k a year. Like others have said, engineering, computer science, doctors, and others can make over 100k without either being a prodigy or working in a junkyard or pawnshop. emoore, What makes you think that those folks are average people? 1) Not...
by MrKnight
Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Phillips Curve is not working!
Replies: 26
Views: 2997

Re: The Phillips Curve is not working!

Why is this important? Because the notion (and my fear) that intermediate term (5 to 7 year duration) bond funds will suffer due to the Fed's actions has not happened. In fact, bonds fund are doing rather well. Any comments? In my humble opinion, it was silly for folks to fear fed intervention will...
by MrKnight
Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plan for making child pay for part of college
Replies: 111
Views: 6363

Re: Plan for making child pay for part of college

While there is obviously value in kids / young adults gaining work experience and working their way up, the flip side is they are working a slightly above minimum wage job (and taking on debt ) which takes time away from their expensive college studies and experience. You would think that's the cas...
by MrKnight
Thu Jul 13, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel's Not so random walk
Replies: 17
Views: 2898

Re: Burton Malkiel's Not so random walk

Anyone else have any thoughts on this? I am currently reading the most recent edition of random walk down street, I think published 2015. Still on the opening chapter, but he states that he's going to dismantle these new arguments which are new twist on active investing including that have convinced...
by MrKnight
Fri Jun 30, 2017 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lackluster ESPP worth contributing?
Replies: 9
Views: 781

Re: Lackluster ESPP worth contributing?

15% discount is significant. Go ahead abbr purchase and sell it in a trimming basis. If you can hold it for a year prior to selling it off you can get capital gains taxes.
by MrKnight
Fri Jun 02, 2017 6:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pet insurance for new puppy
Replies: 77
Views: 7176

Re: Pet insurance for new puppy

Not sure why people are stuck in whether you are in average financially ahead it not by getting let insurance. Would you avoid getting medical insurance on your child because you think that you're most likely to come ahead financially? If euthanasia is out of the question, pet insurance is a fine ch...
by MrKnight
Thu May 25, 2017 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pet insurance for new puppy
Replies: 77
Views: 7176

Re: Pet insurance for new puppy

Pet insurance is worth it I you want to avoid being placed in the situation of making the decision regarding whether to pay for pet's medical procedure or putting it to sleep. Some folks have no qualms of putting their pet to sleep if medical costs climbs past a certain point, and for them pet insur...
by MrKnight
Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 336
Views: 43212

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."

Sad to hear but that's the unfortunate fact of life, not just the Internet, in any unstructured environment. Unfortunately, you can spend your life studying a subject, but then be given as much air time and credibility as someone who spent 30 seconds thinking about it. It doesn't matter how often yo...
by MrKnight
Sun Apr 02, 2017 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Buffet likes S&P 500 Index over a TSM Index Fund?
Replies: 51
Views: 7052

Re: Why Buffet likes S&P 500 Index over a TSM Index Fund?

He uses s&p 500 as an example because that's what most pepole areally familiar with and it's good enough.
by MrKnight
Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Enrolled Agent or CPA for current issues
Replies: 20
Views: 1419

Re: Enrolled Agent or CPA for current issues

Both the CPA and EA can represent you in an audit. The EA can represent you before any state. The CPA is limited by the state he/she is licensed in. That only matters for state income taxes however.
by MrKnight
Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best way to expand my vocabulary?
Replies: 102
Views: 7180

Re: Best way to expand my vocabulary?

I'm not sure that academic reading is necessary or good, but non-fiction is a plus. Read some John McPhee and Bill Bryson. Both can write about things I wouldn't ordinarily be interested in, but they are masters. For fiction, my two favorites are Richard Russo and Paul Auster. Simple but precise la...
by MrKnight
Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best way to expand my vocabulary?
Replies: 102
Views: 7180

Re: Best way to expand my vocabulary?

Passive reading will only go so far in enhancing your vocabulary. Understanding the meaning of the word and using it in your own writing/speaking are two different things. If you wish to boost the vocabulary that you employ in your writings/speaking, you need to practice it on a daily basis. Steps t...
by MrKnight
Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CPA misplaced tax information
Replies: 12
Views: 1926

Re: CPA misplaced tax information

Recourse? Well freezing and placing reports on your credit reports which you already have. You can also engage a company that provides credit monitoring services... but you should have that I'd you were victim of OPM hack. Do you mean recourselves against the CPA? Taking your future business elsewhe...
by MrKnight
Fri Mar 03, 2017 12:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paid off 80k in student loans in 14 months- At the starting line
Replies: 12
Views: 1722

Re: Paid off 80k in student loans in 14 months- At the starting line

That said, both you and I made a bad decision - student loan debt is super cheap. When did you graduate? Current federal loans are around 7%. I wouldn't call that cheap I stand corrected. I graduated in 2000. Loans were like 2.x% or so. if 7% then yeah, totally pay those off. Only I made the bad de...
by MrKnight
Wed Feb 15, 2017 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kids in Apartment Sharing Bedroom - Workable?
Replies: 55
Views: 4239

Re: Kids in Apartment Sharing Bedroom - Workable?

Can it be done? Of course it can.

I grew up sleeping on mattresses on the floor with the rest of my family in a studio apartment in NYC.

Certainly not optimal, but most people globally outside of developed nations do live in conditions like that.
by MrKnight
Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 214
Views: 29827

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

Since we're on the topic, what are you folks opinion regarding optimal value index fund. I use Vanguard Small Cap Value ... I've read some suggesting that it's not the best to capture the small cap value premium. Alternatives I have heard are DFSVX and BOSVX... but VSIAX seems to have robust perform...
by MrKnight
Mon Feb 13, 2017 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 214
Views: 29827

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

Looks like the value premium has been negative for at least nine years, both in the US and internationally. No one makes the claim that a small cap value premium will persist over every selected time frame. The claim being advanced is that on average, small-cap value comes ahead. 2007 to 2016 growt...
by MrKnight
Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 214
Views: 29827

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

I'm at 100% equity allocation, and close to 50% vanguard small cap value... but I am also 30, so I have a long time horizon.
by MrKnight
Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 214
Views: 29827

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

Investing isn't about certainty, but about putting odds on your side. I feel like this should be a sticky post in all caps. So many arguments around here amount to "yeah, but it might not." Yes, and my pocket aces will occasionally lose, but I'm still betting the crap out of them 100% of ...
by MrKnight
Fri Feb 10, 2017 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 214
Views: 29827

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

MrKnight I don't think that's it. IMO it's the limits to arbitrage which makes it much more difficult to correct OVERvaluation than under. Under is easy to correct --you just buy. OVER is much harder as have to borrow and go short, which is much more difficult and risky and expensive. And instituti...
by MrKnight
Fri Feb 10, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't stock prices go up on payday?
Replies: 43
Views: 4192

Re: Why don't stock prices go up on payday?

Maybe I am figuring this wrong, but it seems likely to me that a not-insignificant portion of cash influx into the market occurs on paydays (in the form of automatic payroll deductions), which tend to be Fridays. Is there a discernible effect on prices? If not, why not? I suppose it's highly predic...
by MrKnight
Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 214
Views: 29827

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

chatbotte, already explained why and don't know how to explain further. It's simply that large growth doesn't have the negatives that small growth has. So the gap between large growth returns and large value will be much less than it is between small growth and small value (because a significant pa...
by MrKnight
Fri Feb 03, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investors getting a free ride
Replies: 53
Views: 6355

Re: Index Investors getting a free ride

The bold bit. Active managers cannot collectively beat the market by being in the market. Active investors do not trade with passive investors they trade with each other. If the active trader scalps an another active trader it does not put active traders collectively above passive investors. Active...
by MrKnight
Fri Feb 03, 2017 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investors getting a free ride
Replies: 53
Views: 6355

Re: Index Investors getting a free ride

* Mr. Bogle's argument that collectively active market traders and total market indexers must have the same return before costs still holds. Why would an actively managed fund be unable to capture market inefficiencies? Inefficiencies can occur after capital was released, or missed at the initial I...
by MrKnight
Fri Feb 03, 2017 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investors getting a free ride
Replies: 53
Views: 6355

Re: Index Investors getting a free ride

* Mr. Bogle's argument that collectively active market traders and total market indexers must have the same return before costs still holds. Why would an actively managed fund be unable to capture market inefficiencies? Inefficiencies can occur after capital was released, or missed at the initial I...
by MrKnight
Fri Feb 03, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investors getting a free ride
Replies: 53
Views: 6355

Re: Index Investors getting a free ride

It seems the market ought to self-adjust. If passive investors tip the market too far toward inefficiency opportunities for active investors to find profitable investments should rise. At that point a more than random number of actively-managed funds will begin to beat the index funds and money wil...
by MrKnight
Fri Feb 03, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investors getting a free ride
Replies: 53
Views: 6355

Re: Index Investors getting a free ride

I think this is a false characterization. I think the index investor rides the bus for the cheapest fare but still pays. The active investor hops on and off the bus paying a fair each time and maybe takes a taxi or two in the middle that actually takes him back to his home so he has to start all ov...
by MrKnight
Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Replicating Index with Individual Stocks vs Index Fund
Replies: 28
Views: 3010

Re: Replicating Index with Individual Stocks vs Index Fund

Eeek! That is not true at all. You are probably thinking of studies that created A LARGE NUMBER of random portfolios and found that, on average, their aggregate performance converges towards the market. An individual portfolio that size would be expected to vary widely from the market. See link abo...
by MrKnight
Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Replicating Index with Individual Stocks vs Index Fund
Replies: 28
Views: 3010

Re: Replicating Index with Individual Stocks vs Index Fund

20 randomly selected stocks virtually replicates the return/risk of a index fund. After 20ish thereally is diminishing returns. This was widely quoted going back two or three decades, but recent academic work has contradicted this belief. You cannot have low risk with 20 stocks. Which academic stud...
by MrKnight
Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Replicating Index with Individual Stocks vs Index Fund
Replies: 28
Views: 3010

Re: Replicating Index with Individual Stocks vs Index Fund

20 randomly selected stocks virtually replicates the return/risk of a index fund. After 20ish thereally is diminishing returns.
by MrKnight
Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - 5 Ominous Signs for the Securities Industry
Replies: 12
Views: 1790

Re: Bloomberg - 5 Ominous Signs for the Securities Industry

Toons wrote:The Internet changed it all.
:happy



Yup, the rise of the internet triggered a corresponding uptick in investing. A real game changer.
by MrKnight
Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $600,000. Now what?
Replies: 55
Views: 11387

Re: $600,000. Now what?

Not to steal the OP's thunder, but my Vanguard retirement account has generated 15.5% annualized returns over the past 5 years with a 100% equity allocation to Small Cap Value index + Total Market index, and a pure vanguard small cap value index fund has generated returns in excess of 16% annualized...
by MrKnight
Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $600,000. Now what?
Replies: 55
Views: 11387

Re: $600,000. Now what?

You've done great! Congratulations! Personally, I'd advise to take your winnings and invest it into passive index funds, and perhaps leave a sum to continue playing with (maybe $100K?) and see what happens... no need to continue risking it all. How much do you save monthly now. You said you started ...
by MrKnight
Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 224
Views: 21106

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

Tell you the truth, I am not sure I would want to work for the company. Prior compensation is not germaine to present. I am not sure if it is germane or not. Most companies seem to use prior salary as a baseline so they know what to offer an applicant. On the other hand, I think I read a couple sta...
by MrKnight
Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 224
Views: 21106

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

The implications for having graduated into it the financial crisis lasted for years as each future employer based my new salary on my prior salary. Could you not "inflate" your previous salary so that you could at least earn a fair wage at your new job? Or did they somehow verify that inf...
by MrKnight
Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 224
Views: 21106

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

Yes, even ideological politicians can eventually come to their senses in the face of imminent disasters - like I said up thread, no guarantee they will have the political courage to do so the next time. I don't think they "came to their senses." I think they were scared to death by Bernak...
by MrKnight
Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 224
Views: 21106

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

I probably could get away doing that, yes, but I was always truthful when asked. I have never seen it personally but I have been told that some jobs will verify your prior salary. I imagine these companies are few and far between however. I agree that lying isn't right, but it doesn't seem right wh...
by MrKnight
Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 224
Views: 21106

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

The implications for having graduated into it the financial crisis lasted for years as each future employer based my new salary on my prior salary. Could you not "inflate" your previous salary so that you could at least earn a fair wage at your new job? Or did they somehow verify that inf...
by MrKnight
Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 224
Views: 21106

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

Well, I wasn't investing yet but I had graduated from college into it in 2009. A 2009 graduate experienced a very different job market compared to even a 2008 and 2010 graduate, and I don't think anyone really realizes how bad it was for 2009 graduates unless they experienced it first hand. I never ...
by MrKnight
Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How will the market perform in 2017?
Replies: 45
Views: 4202

Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

My predictions that is subject to change: Irrational euphoria, deregulation, tax cuts, and economic stimulus will lead to a good year for the markets in 2017 like how it was for 2016. Markets will start to cool in 2018. By 2019 we may begin encroaching on a recession... recession has been until this...
by MrKnight
Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Experienced investor: For your portfolio, at what point compound interest really kick in for you? $500k? $1million+?
Replies: 35
Views: 4931

Re: Experienced investor: For your portfolio, at what point compound interest really kick in for you? $500k? $1million+

I think it depends on your investments and rate of return. If you hold a 100% bond portfolio you probably will need more principal to feel the effects of compounding interest compared to 100% stock portfolio. For myself with a 100% stock portfolio, I began to feel the effects of compounding at $100,...