Search found 2908 matches

by MnD
Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% of portfolio balance a better SWR than 3-4% inflation-adjusted?
Replies: 13
Views: 1086

5% of portfolio balance a better SWR than 3-4% inflation-adjusted?

The drift here seems to be towards ever-lower SWR's versus 4% and little or no discussion about going higher. We can definitely live with some variability in portfolio spending and even with a worst case outcome of 3% SWR inflation adjusted, will still enjoy a full retirement. Other income sources c...
by MnD
Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Costco vs. Amazon - Thoughts of Prime Members?
Replies: 40
Views: 3976

Re: Costco vs. Amazon - Thoughts of Prime Members?

For probably 15 years we have been steadily migrating our dollars to Costco _AND_ Amazon.
I've yet to see much competition between them.
They are two distinct models that are killing a fair share of conventional and mostly worn-out retail.
by MnD
Fri Jun 23, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can you share some of your financial goals?
Replies: 34
Views: 2509

Re: Can you share some of your financial goals?

We really didn't have any fundamental purely financial goals. But our life goals did take some financial wrangling. Our specific financial goals flowed from these, but only as a means to an end. Have kids (at least 2). Own good sized older home with character on big fenced lot in a nice safe neighbo...
by MnD
Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sheltering in the TSP's G Fund...A bad idea?
Replies: 20
Views: 1584

Re: Sheltering in the TSP's G Fund...A bad idea?

In practice, the yield of the G fund tends to be about 90% of the yield of the 10-year Treasury. Thanks. 90% of the yield with no interest rate risk? That's spectacular . Yes it is. One can think of it as the federal government version of the stable value fund option in Megacorp's 401-K offerings.
by MnD
Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias
Replies: 49
Views: 3749

Re: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias

Anchoring is also a problem. If the market drops 50% you don't anchor the remaining $1M you have against the $500K you would have had investing your money in the money market fund and at the credit union for 30 years. Instead you anchor against the $2M you had last year, that mostly reflects higher ...
by MnD
Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias
Replies: 49
Views: 3749

Re: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias

The 1982-2016 bull market in bonds, coupled with the fact that many current investors experienced one or both of the roughly 50% equity drops in 2000/02 and 2007/09 sets the table for "equity risky, fixed income/pension/annuity safe" mentality. In fact, there have been times in not too dis...
by MnD
Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: HOW MUCH active management is right for you? :(
Replies: 37
Views: 2585

Re: Vanguard: HOW MUCH active management is right for you? :(

When you look on the above link, the Stock fund beats the S&P 500. When you look on Morningstar http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=DODGX&region=usa&culture=en-US the S&P 500 TR USD beats the Dodge and Cox funds. I know the time periods are different,...
by MnD
Thu Jun 22, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: HOW MUCH active management is right for you? :(
Replies: 37
Views: 2585

Re: Vanguard: HOW MUCH active management is right for you? :(

I hold 20% of my portfolio by choice in the 4 main Dodge and Cox Funds (Stock, International Stock, Income and Global Bond) and will likely run that up to 25%-30% in retirement when some additional funds move from her 401-K to an IRA. The rest is 100% index. Overall I'd contend the Dodge and Cox fun...
by MnD
Thu Jun 22, 2017 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Christine Benz: "How to Make the Most of Your 401(k)"
Replies: 24
Views: 3114

Re: Christine Benz: "How to Make the Most of Your 401(k)"

Current household participation (at least one earner) in any type of defined contribution retirement savings plan (401-K, IRA, KEOGH) is 43%. 57% of households report having any retirement savings including past contributions. Median total household retirement account savings balances ranges from ar...
by MnD
Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Federal employees considering early out - buyout?
Replies: 38
Views: 3082

Re: Federal employees considering early out - buyout?

Its just mental accounting but I look at a potential buy-out offer like an extra year of the FERS annuity supplement. Looking at going out a year earlier than scheduled and a year before annuity supplement starts. Buy-out fills that in quite nicely. It's not big bucks but 8 weeks of buyout and (in m...
by MnD
Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Federal employees considering early out - buyout?
Replies: 38
Views: 3082

Re: Federal employees considering early out - buyout?

1. Health care. Have you kept an FEHB policy for 5 years prior to retiring? If so, you can keep the FEHB coverage for the rest of your life and the .gov will continue to pay its share. This is an awesome benefit, so have you set this up? I have had continuous coverage under FEHB for decades althoug...
by MnD
Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Financial Advice from Dad (in honor of father's day)
Replies: 79
Views: 4755

Re: Best Financial Advice from Dad (in honor of father's day)

"I never missed spending the money I saved or donated to charity"
"Choose a career you enjoy and are good at, but make sure it's something you can pay the bills with".
by MnD
Sat Jun 17, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Federal employees considering early out - buyout?
Replies: 38
Views: 3082

Re: Federal employees considering early out - buyout?

Sounds like you're set. I took a buyout at 55, about a year before full eligibility for FERS retirement. One reason I did so was the possibility that the FERS supplement might suddenly disappear in a budget deal. Who knows, really. I must've run dozens of scenarios through my favorite retirement ca...
by MnD
Sat Jun 17, 2017 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Federal employees considering early out - buyout?
Replies: 38
Views: 3082

Re: Federal employees considering early out - buyout?

What exactly are you getting from the buy out that you wouldn't have anyway? Why do you need the HELOC? Just to have an open line of credit for emergencies? $25K gross more in the initial retirement year. That year only (prior to age 56) wouldn't have a extra annuity benefit roughly equal to that a...
by MnD
Sat Jun 17, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Federal employees considering early out - buyout?
Replies: 38
Views: 3082

Re: Federal employees considering early out - buyout?

1. What current retirement benefits do you see "at risk" for those currently eligible for retirement now? I thought the mostly "at risk" folks would be new employees and those not retirement eligible now? There is a lot of chatter among some federal employees on the internet abo...
by MnD
Sat Jun 17, 2017 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Federal employees considering early out - buyout?
Replies: 38
Views: 3082

Federal employees considering early out - buyout?

I'm seriously considering it as soon as it's offered in a few months. For many years I've had fall 2018 on my calendar for retirement when I would be first eligible for regular retirement. But as a federal on the domestic discretionary side of things, I don't see any upside for waiting another year ...
by MnD
Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Turbochargers
Replies: 60
Views: 3627

Re: Turbochargers

We keep our vehicles for 12-18 years so this trend is a concern. For the kids we bought or passed down older subarus and with careful maintenance you can get 200K or more miles out of them. Denver is full of 200X model year subaru's with typically over 200K miles HOWEVER you will find almost zero of...
by MnD
Mon Jun 12, 2017 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?
Replies: 39
Views: 3669

Re: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?

I know plenty of people at all age points that could never get beyond the credit union/money market/stable value fund options for life savings.
Your reasons seem valid and are no-where even near the low/no return approach of the truly risk-adverse.
by MnD
Sun Jun 11, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Troublesome and questionable change in I-ORP Social Security Calculations
Replies: 16
Views: 1264

Re: Troublesome and questionable change in I-ORP Social Security Calculations

Lets look at history. The last time SS was faced with an inability to cover promised benefits in the early 1980's, tax revenue was raised significantly and very quickly, while most SS benefits reductions were phased in over a decades-long timetable. In fact a major benefit cut, the increase in retir...
by MnD
Sat Jun 10, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help with Car buying math
Replies: 11
Views: 1149

Re: Help with Car buying math

I bought the 2nd generation 2005 Tacoma in fall 2004 and drove a "new truck" for 10 years till the 2015 redesign. It was very different than prior models and a huge seller and as a result the pre-2005 Tacoma's immediately looked dated. I don't really care that I paid a few thousand more it...
by MnD
Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Meeting with retirement guru, specializes in federal govt employees
Replies: 72
Views: 7103

Re: Meeting with retirement guru, specializes in federal govt employees

I found this to be a helpful resource for federal employees: https://fersguide.com. And it is only $10. Covers the FERS pension, TSP, and SS and various other retirement considerations. This guide, the corresponding powerpoint presentations and the e-mailed and archived newsletters are excellent ma...
by MnD
Sat Jun 10, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Troublesome and questionable change in I-ORP Social Security Calculations
Replies: 16
Views: 1264

Re: Troublesome and questionable change in I-ORP Social Security Calculations

I use I-ORP and saw this change for Social Security. It is being used on other models as well, so I see nothing wrong with including this in the assumptions because it is a fact that SOMETHING will change, and a 23% reduction is a better guess than assuming the payments will continue as they are no...
by MnD
Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next
Replies: 89
Views: 10059

Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Dirtbag Blodget interviewing Wrong-For-Decades Rogers. I would definitely pay attention to that A-team. :mrgreen: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Blodget In 1994, Blodget joined the corporate finance training program at Prudential Securities, and, two years later, moved to Oppenheimer & Co. ...
by MnD
Sun Jun 04, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Boglehead approved actively managed funds!
Replies: 28
Views: 2785

Re: Boglehead approved actively managed funds!

We have 20% of our portfolio in four Dodge and Cox funds (Stock, International Stock, Income and Global Bond). 78% is indexed and 2% in individual stocks. https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/11/14/investing-legend-jack-bogle-answers-your-questions.aspx JOHN "JACK" BOGLE: Well, I'm ...
by MnD
Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD on Declining Balance
Replies: 53
Views: 3284

Re: RMD on Declining Balance

...Note the "all households" data (green bars). Sorry, I really don't believe that $12,000 median for people around age 60. This must exclude $$ in taxable account or be including people outside the US. Something like that. Or perhaps it's ignoring people with pensions or $500,000 worth o...
by MnD
Sun Jun 04, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everything keeps going up, this feels too easy?
Replies: 113
Views: 8602

Re: Everything keeps going up, this feels too easy?

Total Stock Market has done 7.X% and 8.X% CAGR for 10 and 20 years and total international much worse than that. That's pretax and pre-inflation. Not complaining, but realizing even this gain required the mental fortitude to not do stupid things in 2001-02, 2008-09 (and don't forget 2011). I wouldn'...
by MnD
Fri Jun 02, 2017 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD on Declining Balance
Replies: 53
Views: 3284

Re: RMD on Declining Balance

I wonder how many retirees know that they will have a RMD on a declining balance on their IRAs? and Somewhere-Sometime they will discover that their IRA will no longer support their life style of ~4% SWR? YMMV Most people, including most near-retirees don't have any meaningful retirement savings. T...
by MnD
Thu Jun 01, 2017 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone treat taxable as a "someday fund"?
Replies: 86
Views: 5936

Re: Does anyone treat taxable as a "someday fund"?

Most people I know IRL don't have a taxable account invested in equities or other risk securities. They have a house/emergency/vacation/whatever fund at the credit union earning nothing, and what equity or other risk investments they hold are in retirement accounts. Several people I've talked to did...
by MnD
Wed May 31, 2017 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone treat taxable as a "someday fund"?
Replies: 86
Views: 5936

Re: Does anyone treat taxable as a "someday fund"?

Between 1986 and 1990 we (frugal-minded recent college grads with double income no kids) funded a mid-high 5-figure taxable account 100% equity and never contributed another dime. Using after-inflation gains we've purchased a couple of new cars, a couple of years of private HS for one kid when publi...
by MnD
Mon May 29, 2017 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit unions are non-profit, how come they do not dominate over banks???
Replies: 73
Views: 5356

Re: Credit unions are non-profit, how come they do not dominate over banks???

Megabank 3 might be the only one in play. If a CU savings can reliably beat the no-frills savings accounts from the on-line banks I would look at them. MB 1 is 3%-10% on everything charged when used for travel, not even considering the sign-up ($1-2K) bonuses. CU's have nothing even remotely close. ...
by MnD
Mon May 29, 2017 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit unions are non-profit, how come they do not dominate over banks???
Replies: 73
Views: 5356

Re: Credit unions are non-profit, how come they do not dominate over banks???

Mega-bank #1 funds all my leisure travel (usually first class) with reward cards with sign-up bonuses worth $1000-$2000 per card on travel, then range of 10% to a minimum of 3% back on purchases when points are used for travel. We charge everything possible. First-rate fraud detection. Mega-bank #2 ...
by MnD
Thu May 25, 2017 9:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When does Saving become missing out on life?
Replies: 74
Views: 8397

Re: When does Saving become missing out on life?

We save enough towards the goal of maintaining our financial standard of living when not working for others compared to when we are working for others - and we spend the rest like drunken sailors. This is obviously an imperfect science, but after 30 years of saving and 15 months out from retirement ...
by MnD
Wed May 24, 2017 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Major home and auto hail damage claim - now what?
Replies: 8
Views: 944

Major home and auto hail damage claim - now what?

Estimates for the Denver area are $1.4 billion and climbing. My estimated costs of covered repairs from my insurance company estimators are just in: Home $45K (roof, siding, gutters, window trim, garage door, shed roof, gazebo roof, several misc items) Auto 1 $7K (new hood, rest paintless dent repai...
by MnD
Sat May 20, 2017 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else track the value of their investments by discounting the value of equities?
Replies: 64
Views: 3938

Re: Anyone else track the value of their investments by discounting the value of equities?

No. If the market on day one of my retirement in 15 months dropped 40% we would spend 14% less than planned under a % of annual portfolio balance approach, as portfolio income is 50% of planned retirement income and we are 70/30AA. Our plan (to retire with the same effective financial lifestyle as n...
by MnD
Sat May 20, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International: Where's the benefit?
Replies: 63
Views: 5131

Re: International: Where's the benefit?

You might trying using portfolio visualizer as it was designed, to back-test real-world investing styles. I set up portfolio visualizer with Portfolio B sort of the way I actually invested 1986-2017. $10,000 per year initial plus $10,000 contribution annually (inflation adjusted), rebalance annually...
by MnD
Fri May 19, 2017 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those with $500k-$1m in investments...
Replies: 138
Views: 12945

Re: For those with $500k-$1m in investments...

A fair bit out of your range but 10% taxable 90% tax-sheltered. We built the 100% equity taxable account 1986-1990 when our tax-sheltered space and options were much more limited and haven't added to it since. Have spent multiple 6-figures in gains from it and it's about the same size (inflation adj...
by MnD
Thu May 18, 2017 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Personal Capital's asset allocation - Is the tool worth the complication?
Replies: 8
Views: 864

Re: Personal Capital's asset allocation - Is the tool worth the complication?

I use PC and it never even occurred to me to adopt their allocation model. Suggest you just ignore it.
Only one small section of the numerous displays and tools compares your AA to a model AA.
by MnD
Tue May 16, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 9181

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

At global market cap weighting, we have a huge 53% position in US equity - 6.5X larger than the next highest country weighting. 90% of our fixed income positions are US bonds. We have two valuable claims on US Social Security, the continued value of which relies heavily on the US government and US e...
by MnD
Sun May 14, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 9181

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

The one thing that concerns me the most about investing outside the US and Europe is insider trading and the like. Enough shenanigans go on in the US where we have really good watchdogs. How good is enforcement in Asia and developing countries? They are very lax on intellectual property rights, and...
by MnD
Sun May 14, 2017 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do I have a problem in the backyard in need of a professional?
Replies: 34
Views: 4065

Re: Do I have a problem in the backyard in need of a professional?

^^ We used to "fish" for them with a piece of bacon tied on the end of a string. We had them everywhere in our yard when we lived in Southern Louisiana. Fishing for them with string and bacon is entertaining although ours were smart enough to drop the bait before they were pulled out far ...
by MnD
Sat May 13, 2017 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"
Replies: 37
Views: 3483

Re: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"

How did a "safe" bond-heavy portfolio work out for class of 1966 retirees?
by MnD
Sat May 13, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees, what is your marginal tax rate?
Replies: 33
Views: 3007

Re: Retirees, what is your marginal tax rate?

Almost retired (class of 2018). Currently in middle of 28% bracket and when retired will be in middle of 25% bracket.
t401-K's now and no plans for Roth conversions.
by MnD
Sat May 13, 2017 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Praise for Roth IRA conversions in retirement, a bonus for early retirees
Replies: 11
Views: 2002

Re: Praise for Roth IRA conversions in retirement, a bonus for early retirees

1987 to date every penny of the funds we put in to t401-K has avoided being taxed at 28% to 35% federal. A few years the contributions also avoided triggering AMT. Starting in 2019 withdrawals under current law will be taxed at a blend of 15% and 25%, although if you follow the news that tax treatme...
by MnD
Fri May 12, 2017 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1351
Views: 233241

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

7.83% across 8 accounts and 18 positions. 70/30 equity/fixed income, global market cap weighting on US/ex-US. Nice to see international doing most of the heavy lifting for a change. :beer 2-fund portfolio of 70% Total World Stock and 30% Total Bond Market is 7.23%, so a little slice and dice bonus a...
by MnD
Thu May 11, 2017 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why save so much for when you're old?
Replies: 163
Views: 18570

Re: Why save so much for when you're old?

I guess it's because we would rather pay for a mortgage than rent, but can't afford home ownership. And when you walk down a street of houses, every single one of them has to have a owner! That and at work a lot of people seem to have luxury cars, and they're only slightly senior to us in terms of ...
by MnD
Thu May 11, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why save so much for when you're old?
Replies: 163
Views: 18570

Re: Why save so much for when you're old?

1. Saving when you are young gives you an option to retire sooner. I am planning on retiring in my mid fifties. Ideally (I acknowledge the future is not certain) that will give me a 10 year window of still being pretty active and spending a good chunk of change. Plus retiring 10 years early is also...
by MnD
Tue May 09, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inherited IRA - liquidate before or after transfer?
Replies: 24
Views: 1558

Re: Inherited IRA - liquidate before or after transfer?

if assets are going to be liquidated before the distribution to the inherited accounts, someone needs trading authorization on your Dad's original IRA. I was the executor and trustee for my parents accounts that we the kids inherited and I distributed shares intact roughly equally among siblings wit...
by MnD
Sun May 07, 2017 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we all forgetting our taxable accounts?
Replies: 79
Views: 9872

Re: Are we all forgetting our taxable accounts?

hoping the combination of taxable investments, roth investments, and 401k investments will be good for me in the future. That's what my daughter does - funds all 3. We were in high brackets by the time the Roth IRA was legislated and Roth 401K access lagged even further, so we are all traditional a...
by MnD
Sun May 07, 2017 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we all forgetting our taxable accounts?
Replies: 79
Views: 9872

Re: Are we all forgetting our taxable accounts?

Note if you use a Roth early then your tax rate at the time is immaterial. Annual Roth IRA space is very limited and requires a two-step process to fund if over the income limit. You can only withdraw principal from your Roth IRA. Roth 401-K space (if you even have access to such as account) is mor...
by MnD
Sun May 07, 2017 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Transferring vehicle and insurance to adult child
Replies: 11
Views: 805

Re: Transferring vehicle and insurance to adult child

I'm about to do the same thing. Have asked my insurance agent to price it out with him on my policy and independently on his own, where he can carry much lower limits. When the teens started driving my auto premiums went through the roof, my umbrella policy premium did a 3X and (I think) even my ho...

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