Search found 347 matches

by MindBogler
Fri Jul 08, 2016 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annualized returns and growth of $10K
Replies: 13
Views: 918

Re: Annualized returns and growth of $10K

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Importa ... d_interest

Seemingly small differences in interest received yield large variance in outcomes due to exponential growth. This is coincidentally why expense ratios matter.
by MindBogler
Fri Jul 01, 2016 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Military Blended Retirement System starting in 2018
Replies: 23
Views: 2661

Re: New Military Blended Retirement System starting in 2018

I just spent too much time in a spreadsheet because I was curious. It is a flat 20% cut to the defined benefit. This will save the military money. The fact that many people will not put 5% of their salary in to get the match will save the military money. However, I don't think this is all bad for th...
by MindBogler
Fri Jul 01, 2016 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"
Replies: 101
Views: 5337

Re: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"

There is a less empirical argument that, if these minor movements give a person the illusion of control and prevent a major behavioral mistake, there is a benefit to the person who does it. We know from many prior posts, see Nisiprius, that most investors make less than the market return due to a co...
by MindBogler
Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point do we market time?
Replies: 87
Views: 5896

Re: At what point do we market time?

We are currently at 26.11 PE10. If your numbers are correct (1900-1996)we are are over 2 standard deviations from the mean. That means statistically 98% of the time we should have a lower PE10. That doesn't sound so good. With that said, if the numbers were rerun from the 1990's the mean would be m...
by MindBogler
Thu Jun 30, 2016 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where were you financially when you were at 30?
Replies: 216
Views: 20718

Re: Where were you financially when you were at 30?

Behind. I quit a good job in 2006 and went back to school to pursue a different career. I finished school but the career didn't pan out. It took almost 2 years to find work starting in 2010 and I depleted taxable savings to pay for school. I lost 6 years of tax deferred savings. Now I'm back to doin...
by MindBogler
Thu Jun 30, 2016 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait, holding international increases risk?
Replies: 67
Views: 4536

Re: Wait, holding international increases risk?

I think the strongest case for holding international stocks is to avoid home country risk, which is exactly why I hold them at all.
by MindBogler
Thu Jun 30, 2016 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point do we market time?
Replies: 87
Views: 5896

Re: At what point do we market time?

Again, are you using only data from 1900-1996? PE10 over 20 has been the norm since 1992. Basically, PE10 has been over 20 for 23 of the past 24 years. Before that, every time PE10 got above 20, a crash soon followed. The only time PE10 had gotten over 25 in the past was 1929. Believe me, anyone fo...
by MindBogler
Wed Jun 29, 2016 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"
Replies: 101
Views: 5337

Re: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"

If you believe that you should put more into a fund after a recent short-term drop because you believe it is now more likely to have a higher return than it would otherwise, then I disagree. I don't believe this at all. I do agree with rebalancing to keep my asset allocation where I want. I have gi...
by MindBogler
Wed Jun 29, 2016 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"
Replies: 101
Views: 5337

Re: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"

http://i.imgur.com/Nq7nAo9.png If I invested my new contributions in VFITX (orange) from 3/29/16 onward and then rebalanced from VFITX to VFIAX on 6/27 (which I did), how much more money do I have on a percentage basis than if I had plowed it into VFIAX every two weeks? You can pick any numbers or ...
by MindBogler
Wed Jun 29, 2016 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocate within accounts or between accounts?
Replies: 34
Views: 2130

Re: Allocate within accounts or between accounts?

Having multiple accounts and multiple funds doesn't really have to be complicated. If you organize with a basic spreadsheet, you can track asset allocation across funds and accounts by grouping like investments together. Google Sheets is a free online spreadsheet that will allow you to do exactly th...
by MindBogler
Wed Jun 29, 2016 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"
Replies: 101
Views: 5337

Re: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"

Any positive amount. I'm saying I've seen no evidence that a "wait to buy after big drops" will provide *any* advantage over just buying when you have the money. This is a classic example of the logical fallacy: appeal to ignorance. We see this argument consistently and I always feel like...
by MindBogler
Wed Jun 29, 2016 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...
Replies: 158
Views: 10140

Re: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...

I funnel most of my new contributions into intermediate treasuries and then disburse from there. Sometimes I forget to exchange and I may have several months of regular purchases idling there. That may not be ideal, but it is no different than telling people to DCA vs Lump Sum into the market. That ...
by MindBogler
Tue Jun 28, 2016 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 163
Views: 64621

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

This too shall pass.
by MindBogler
Tue Jun 28, 2016 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point do we market time?
Replies: 87
Views: 5896

Re: At what point do we market time?

If PE10 hits 40, I'll sell. When PE10 is at 2 or 3 sigma extremes it is more predictive and, in my opinion, actionable. When PE10 went over 25 in 1996, how many sigmas was that? (at the time, PE10 had never been over 25 before except in 1929, right before the Great Depression). Use data from 1900-1...
by MindBogler
Mon Jun 27, 2016 6:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: An actual book on LastPass?
Replies: 35
Views: 2334

Re: An actual book on LastPass?

Not a specific provision that I am aware of, no. However, you can create secure notes that contain the answers to your security questions inside of the lastpass console.
by MindBogler
Mon Jun 27, 2016 6:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car talk: sonata MPG dropped a lot
Replies: 43
Views: 2802

Re: Car talk: sonata MPG dropped a lot

I can't find reliable statistics on exactly how much alignment can impact mileage but I think another 4.7mpg would be next to impossible without it being very obvious. So back to my original statement - "you'd be driving on flats and off the road (because with alignment that poor you wouldn't ...
by MindBogler
Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: An actual book on LastPass?
Replies: 35
Views: 2334

Re: An actual book on LastPass?

I also use Lastpass. I recommend that anyone who uses it should enable multi-factor authentication for additional security. I also enable MFA on any sites where it is possible, particularly financials. The site is a target for hackers, that much is certain. But I believe the benefits far outweigh th...
by MindBogler
Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car talk: sonata MPG dropped a lot
Replies: 43
Views: 2802

Re: Car talk: sonata MPG dropped a lot

You can get an OBDII scanner and monitor the coolant temp. Rather than open the radiator cap, you can use the upper radiator hose to see if the t-stat is stuck. Touch it when cold (in the morning after a whole evening) - it should be cold. Then start the car and monitor the coolant temp. Once it ge...
by MindBogler
Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car talk: sonata MPG dropped a lot
Replies: 43
Views: 2802

Re: Car talk: sonata MPG dropped a lot

I just remembered the Torque Pro. I think you can get the OBD2 plug + an android app for under $25. This is a much better solution than using a multimeter. This is what I'm talking about: OBD 2 plug in bluetooth sensor https://www.amazon.com/Panlong-Bluetooth-Diagnostic-Scanner-Android/dp/B00PJPHEBO...
by MindBogler
Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car talk: sonata MPG dropped a lot
Replies: 43
Views: 2802

Re: Car talk: sonata MPG dropped a lot

I may still be giving the automotive industry too much credit, but the temperature sensor output should be available to an OBDII scanner. Quicker, safer and cleaner than sticking a multimeter in the engine bay. This is true and you are correct...if you have a more expensive OBD II scanner. I'm not ...
by MindBogler
Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car talk: sonata MPG dropped a lot
Replies: 43
Views: 2802

Re: Car talk: sonata MPG dropped a lot

I'm surprised it doesn't throw a code. It's worth hooking up a scanner and seeing if it's got a diagnostic that doesn't trip the check engine light. It seems like they should be detecting the failure to warm up and throw a code that leads to a very short checklist: ⋅ Are you in Antarctica...
by MindBogler
Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car talk: sonata MPG dropped a lot
Replies: 43
Views: 2802

Re: Car talk: sonata MPG dropped a lot

I'll add that if you are feeling technically inclined, you can probably diagnose a stuck open thermostat by yourself (easier with 2 people). 1. Ensure the engine is cold (first start of the day) 2. Remove the radiator cap 3. Start engine 4. Look at the coolant (static or moving around) 5. Rev the en...
by MindBogler
Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car talk: sonata MPG dropped a lot
Replies: 43
Views: 2802

Re: Car talk: sonata MPG dropped a lot

There is a lot of good advice in this thread, but I would narrow my search to a problem with low engine temperature. Of the potential causes of low engine temp, two obvious ones come to mind: Thermostat - stuck open (these are a simple spring with a copper pellet and they tend to fail either full op...
by MindBogler
Sun Jun 26, 2016 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks and relative currency value
Replies: 12
Views: 638

Re: Stocks and relative currency value

As do, I can only assume, most attempts at deriving nourishment from Au. Is the same true for most long-term investments in farms and fisheries? I would imagine these attempts end equally as bad as attempting to derive nourishment from a stack of paper dollars. You can't directly eat either one. I'...
by MindBogler
Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks in free fall
Replies: 118
Views: 10435

Re: International stocks in free fall

Rick Ferri wrote:United we stand and divided we fall.

How did any country survive or prosper before the EU? :confused

Time, not prognostication, will tell.
by MindBogler
Thu Jun 09, 2016 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year Treasury low yield
Replies: 45
Views: 3895

Re: 10 Year Treasury low yield

For anyone considering a 30 yr mortgage in the coming months, this is great news.
:sharebeer
by MindBogler
Wed Jun 08, 2016 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point do we market time?
Replies: 87
Views: 5896

Re: At what point do we market time?

If PE10 hits 40, I'll sell. When PE10 is at 2 or 3 sigma extremes it is more predictive and, in my opinion, actionable.
by MindBogler
Mon May 30, 2016 7:16 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Thank you to all of our Veterans
Replies: 14
Views: 1032

Re: Thank you to all of our Veterans

expat wrote:Veteran's day isn't until November 11.

Memorial day is meant to honor those veterans who died in the service of the United States. :confused
by MindBogler
Fri May 27, 2016 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Real price for a new car
Replies: 64
Views: 5536

Re: Real price for a new car

Invoice minus 3% before rebates is a good starting point. Rebates should be applied after the initial negotiation. The last time I purchased a new vehicle I made a deal like this by spamming all of the dealerships' internet sales representatives within 200 miles with a color/options list and my pric...
by MindBogler
Thu May 26, 2016 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can I just let my money compound now?
Replies: 51
Views: 6131

Re: Can I just let my money compound now?

So...I'm 25 with a little over 100k saved and in a target fund. Is it safe to say that I could potentially not save another dime and be in decent shape in 30 years? Not saying I'm going to do this, just curious. Let's assume that you're going to earn 5% annually and inflation runs at 2% annually. I...
by MindBogler
Thu May 26, 2016 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can I just let my money compound now?
Replies: 51
Views: 6131

Re: Can I just let my money compound now?

All that high valuations tell me about this period is it is a good time to be an accumulator. I think anyone in the accumulation phase looking at the returns of the last 10-15 years and extrapolating their continuation for another 15-20 is being overly pessimistic. Diversify, continue saving and you...
by MindBogler
Sun Apr 24, 2016 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thinking about Mac (vs Windows)
Replies: 66
Views: 7113

Re: Thinking about Mac (vs Windows)

As I've said in the past in various forms, if you plan on spending dollar parity, you will find little difference for average usage between a new Macbook Pro and a comparable Windows 10 PC. To compare a Macbook Pro with an advanced screen and PCI-based flash storage to a $500-800 PC with spinning di...
by MindBogler
Thu Apr 21, 2016 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cannot Pay Huge Tax Burden
Replies: 107
Views: 9707

Re: Cannot Pay Huge Tax Burden

I don't even know where to start with this entire thread because, frankly, it's a mess. I find it hard to believe that there are people here advocating about how to game the system. Shame on all of you who suggest such a thing. There is no free lunch and it is morally irresponsible of anyone who sug...
by MindBogler
Wed Apr 20, 2016 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To Buy or Rent a Home? Weighing Which Is the Better Choice
Replies: 16
Views: 2859

Re: To Buy or Rent a Home? Weighing Which Is the Better Choice

My position that home ownership as an investment is far over rated , has been colored by personal experience. We still live in the house we built 30 years ago and I was counting on a 5 % yearly increase in house prices....We built the house for resale and I was convinced this would be a great inves...
by MindBogler
Mon Apr 04, 2016 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To Buy or Rent a Home? Weighing Which Is the Better Choice
Replies: 16
Views: 2859

Re: To Buy or Rent a Home? Weighing Which Is the Better Choice

It is pretty amazing that with all the evidence, that renting for most people makes sense, people want to own. This is actively encouraged by mortgage interest tax deduction and $500,000 gain taxfree. It's hard to argue with this kind of dogmatic position. Renting is far from ideal under a number o...
by MindBogler
Fri Apr 01, 2016 7:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are any OTC drugs and vitamins U.S.P.-labelled any more?
Replies: 34
Views: 1453

Re: Are any OTC drugs and vitamins U.S.P.-labelled any more?

Like the previous poster said, there are quite a few but you have to read each label. Most of them display it quite prominently.
by MindBogler
Thu Mar 24, 2016 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MedicareRX - pricing biologics
Replies: 17
Views: 1125

Re: MedicareRX - pricing biologics

Go to the website of the manufacturer of this drug and see if they have any payment assistance plans. Many of them offer large subsidies directly for biologics. I don't know about the manufacturer of Orencia, but this is the case for others that I am aware of.
by MindBogler
Thu Mar 17, 2016 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Deck staining
Replies: 15
Views: 1695

Re: Deck staining

Personally, unless you are physically unable or simply do not have time, I would stain the deck myself. Rent a pressure washer and a flooring orbital sander for Home Depot, etc. -Pressure wash (do not use a stream, use a fan spray) -Allow to dry -Sand -Wash again -Allow to dry -Tape off areas/ lay p...
by MindBogler
Sun Mar 13, 2016 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to convince high NW father to dump his financial advisor?
Replies: 69
Views: 7112

Re: How to convince high NW father to dump his financial advisor?

I don't think your father needs your advice. That. This comes across as "My dad had done great using his current financial advisor, and is very comfortable with him as well. How can I get him to dump this advisor and switch to another with whom he is not familiar?" Your dad really wants t...
by MindBogler
Wed Feb 17, 2016 7:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: should I give up on HP laptop - what next?
Replies: 40
Views: 2821

Re: should I give up on HP laptop - what next?

It is unfair to compare a $300-$400 laptop, from any of the makers, with a $1000 Mac. If you want quality in a Windows machine you should go to the business lines of the large makers (Lenovo, HP, Dell) Exactly. And to respond to the post further above where it was mentioned that running Windows in ...
by MindBogler
Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buy now, why not wait until the market really crashes??
Replies: 79
Views: 10045

Re: Why buy now, why not wait until the market really crashes??

Yes, it worked fairly well during the last two bear markets, letting you miss significant losses, and letting you buy in much lower. But how much of that is back-testing? Why 10-month? What does 4-month show? Or 16-month? What if the next crash is different? How does that simple 10-month system loo...
by MindBogler
Sun Jan 10, 2016 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $2.3M+ stolen from my company 401k [Safeguards in 401(k) plans]
Replies: 14
Views: 4027

Re: $2.3M+ stolen from my company 401k

What is the car? I feel lost. Was this your money specifically or the entire company's 401k? What advice are you seeking?
by MindBogler
Fri Dec 04, 2015 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks and bonds move in opposite directions and improve results? Really?
Replies: 129
Views: 10199

Re: Stocks and bonds move in opposite directions and improve results? Really?

This is one of my favorite charts. No additional commentary required:

Image
by MindBogler
Fri Dec 04, 2015 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks and bonds move in opposite directions and improve results? Really?
Replies: 129
Views: 10199

Re: Stocks and bonds move in opposite directions and improve results? Really?

I agree that there isn't that much annual data. But then again, why do you need annual data? Use daily data instead. There have been an awful lot of days, and we have a large data set of those. Using daily data for S&P 500, (SPY) and the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury fund (VUSTX), we find a corre...
by MindBogler
Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Companies that pay] lobbyists beat the S&P 500
Replies: 10
Views: 1436

Re: How lobbyists beat the S&P 500

Doing so would have generated profits that easily beat the index—generating alpha, as it's known among investing pros—every year for more than a decade, according to data from Strategas, which uses a proprietary measure it calls the Lobbying Index to track those companies. Sounds great in theory bu...
by MindBogler
Mon Nov 30, 2015 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I make a legal last will/testament by myself?
Replies: 52
Views: 5624

Re: Can I make a legal last will/testament by myself?

Just because you can do something doesn't mean that you should.
by MindBogler
Fri Nov 27, 2015 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you consider an eventual inheritance?
Replies: 43
Views: 6473

Re: Would you consider an eventual inheritance?

Work on making your own inheritance. Don't count on anything that isn't already in your hands. And don't be one of those buzzards swooping around old folks, often many years before they've passed. It's distasteful and disrespectful. For all you know, those wise owls gave their money to charity. With...
by MindBogler
Tue Nov 24, 2015 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Beer Growler, how long will it keep unopend?
Replies: 16
Views: 2090

Re: Beer Growler, how long will it keep unopend?

Depends on how it was filled. A sanitized growler purged and filled from the bottom with a counter pressure filler will be very shelf stable, a growler filled from the top from a dirty bar tap will not be very shelf stable. This guy is right. If it's filled correctly (counter pressure) then you wil...
by MindBogler
Sun Nov 22, 2015 11:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What car would you buy today for $6000?
Replies: 57
Views: 4890

Re: What car would you buy today for $6000?

With the recent issues identified with VW diesels, she might be able go get a relatively recent good quality car for less than market value on similar compact cars. I would not want to recommend a car from a manufacturer with a relatively poor reliability record. If any thing goes wrong with it, yo...
by MindBogler
Sun Nov 22, 2015 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to classify money in an HRA [Health Reimbursement Arrangement]
Replies: 7
Views: 683

How to classify money in an HRA [Health Reimbursement Arrangement]

I have recently separated from a gov't entity that provided me with a health reimbursement arrangement. The union contract that governs this arrangement stipulates that I get to keep the money in this account even though I have terminated employment. I can continue to use the money for healthcare re...

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