Search found 453 matches

by MindBogler
Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 136
Views: 8162

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

Contradictions all around. You don't predict return, but you do assume long-term positive returns. You don't predict return, but you do predict risk, as if the two aren't related. You set AA for risk management, and the value of the portfolio and your personal circumstances, but the value of the po...
by MindBogler
Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 136
Views: 8162

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

Setting one's asset allocation is a market-independent decision, at least it's supposed to be. But don't suppose that just because someone might abuse the practice of setting up (and sticking to ) their IPS and asset allocation you get to impugn us all. You're proposing changing your asset allocati...
by MindBogler
Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 136
Views: 8162

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

Do you think we should follow their advice today and go 0% stocks for the next ten years? Even though there is no way to prove or disprove their model? Changing your AA based on market conditions (valuations) is absolutely market-timing. It's the DEFINITION of market-timing. You are changing your A...
by MindBogler
Wed Jun 28, 2017 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 136
Views: 8162

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

Do you think we should follow their advice today and go 0% stocks for the next ten years? Even though there is no way to prove or disprove their model? It doesn't mean you should be at 100% stocks either. I think it is fairly obvious that valuations matter. The problem with this forum is that whene...
by MindBogler
Tue Jun 27, 2017 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Realtor fee negotiations
Replies: 27
Views: 2129

Re: Realtor fee negotiations

Goal33 wrote:Sorry for stealing your thread, but my point is, don't have a family / friend realtor represent you. And make sure any deal is in writing.

This is strong advice in general. Family and business are two things best left unmixed.
by MindBogler
Tue Jun 27, 2017 9:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Realtor fee negotiations
Replies: 27
Views: 2129

Re: Realtor fee negotiations

I've had luck getting 1% knocked off both as a buyer and a seller. I would be surprised by any agent that wouldn't accept a 5% sale.
by MindBogler
Tue Jun 27, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Middle age job blues
Replies: 86
Views: 7569

Re: Middle age job blues

There is nothing scary about this thread. I know plenty of 50+ tech people that can find jobs easily. One of my colleague (around 50 year old) was laid off this year 2017, went for 3 interviews and all 3 companies want to hire him. He is pretty good at programming and has no problem writting code o...
by MindBogler
Sun Jun 25, 2017 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Auto Throttle Body Servicing & Injector Flush: 2017 Equivalent to Strut Scam????
Replies: 10
Views: 814

Re: Auto Throttle Body Servicing & Injector Flush: 2017 Equivalent to Strut Scam????

Scam... People LOVE injector cleaning, which is a joke since gasoline IS an excellent solvent. Add to the fact that 10% ethanol is even better of a cleaning solvent. No, it's not a scam. The scam is paying someone to clean your injectors. All they do is dump a can of BG-44K or similar into the fuel...
by MindBogler
Sun Jun 25, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stocks - New thoughts
Replies: 73
Views: 4204

Re: International Stocks - New thoughts

I haven't seen any compelling reason to hold bonds denominated in another currency. More to the point, is there a compelling reason to avoid such bonds? The real return of bonds is such that the majority of the return is likely to be dominated by currency fluctuation. A declining dollar will have t...
by MindBogler
Sun Jun 25, 2017 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stocks - New thoughts
Replies: 73
Views: 4204

Re: International Stocks - New thoughts

Nobody has mentioned " total international bond index funds" in their folios on this post. I reduced mine gradually from 30% to ZERO in the past year because I prefer USA centric bond funds with the same, or less, risk characteristics. No hedging to contend with or exchange rates.. Am I r...
by MindBogler
Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20 Years To Med School: Saving For Tuition Math
Replies: 28
Views: 2022

Re: 20 Years To Med School: Saving For Tuition Math

I realize this; I figure we can still use the savings for other purposes. Somehow I feel that I'd rather have the money ready for Med or any other professional school (college already funded via prepaid tuition) and the child not go that route than the opposite: the child wanting and being able to ...
by MindBogler
Sat Jun 24, 2017 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20 Years To Med School: Saving For Tuition Math
Replies: 28
Views: 2022

Re: 20 Years To Med School: Saving For Tuition Math

It has all to do with future returns, which by definition can be calculated from dividends, earnings growth, changes in P/E and higher order factors. In fact, 26 is almost exactly double than what the market has produced historically. Make no mistake, P/E = 26 is highly correlated to 10y yield = 2....
by MindBogler
Sat Jun 24, 2017 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20 Years To Med School: Saving For Tuition Math
Replies: 28
Views: 2022

Re: 20 Years To Med School: Saving For Tuition Math

P/E = 26, interest rates near their lower boundary and a known formula. PE has been 26 before but that has nothing to do with long term real returns of the market. I don't think forecasting 3.5% real return for the next 20 years has any good historic precedent. That is almost exactly half of what t...
by MindBogler
Sat Jun 24, 2017 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20 Years To Med School: Saving For Tuition Math
Replies: 28
Views: 2022

Re: 20 Years To Med School: Saving For Tuition Math

Thesaints wrote:
MindBogler wrote:
Thesaints wrote:Also, real 3.5% return is at the limit of a safe assumption with a 100% stocks investment.

Where did you get that number from? The real return of the S&P500 is closer to 7%.


"Has been", actually.

What makes you think this time will be different?
by MindBogler
Sat Jun 24, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20 Years To Med School: Saving For Tuition Math
Replies: 28
Views: 2022

Re: 20 Years To Med School: Saving For Tuition Math

Thesaints wrote:Also, real 3.5% return is at the limit of a safe assumption with a 100% stocks investment.

Where did you get that number from? The real return of the S&P500 is closer to 7%.
by MindBogler
Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fed Raising Rates vs. Mortgage Rates
Replies: 6
Views: 731

Re: Fed Raising Rates vs. Mortgage Rates

From what I understand, mortgage rates are a little more correlated to the 10 year treassury note and less so to the fed's short term rate. The 10 year note and mortgage rates increased fairly suddenly after the election as a result of speculations in political policies and economic stimulus, infra...
by MindBogler
Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anything wrong with 100% US Stocks?
Replies: 35
Views: 2408

Re: Anything wrong with 100% US Stocks?

Heaven knows what China would do under those circumstances. But if you don't have the basic institutional structure for the markets and the basic protection of shareholder rights that we've had institutionalized over 250 years here, you want to be very careful before you depart that." I'm not ...
by MindBogler
Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 199
Views: 99364

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

A Japanese investor with a reasonable allocation to global stocks would have ended up just fine. Japan is exhibit A on why international diversification is important for all investors.
by MindBogler
Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 52
Views: 4080

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

The "interconnected world" argument works in both directions. Many US companies derive substantial income from overseas markets and many foreign companies derive substantial income from the United States. Every stock market has risks. There is a risk that the USA market has reached a 30 ye...
by MindBogler
Thu Jun 22, 2017 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did I just get seriously ripped off?? (Car lease)
Replies: 54
Views: 4535

Re: Did I just get seriously ripped off?? (Car lease)

But the invoice price doesn't take into account the popularity of the vehicle and therefore current discounts on the vehicle. This only matters if there is "trunk money" or if the car is in extremely high demand like an M2, in which case you probably won't get $1000 over invoice anyway. I...
by MindBogler
Thu Jun 22, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Turbochargers
Replies: 60
Views: 3676

Re: Turbochargers

As long as the turbo is water cooled there is little chance of the heat soak problems of the past. In the 80s many turbocharged vehicles were oil cooled only and they had significant problems with oil coking in the bearings leading to premature failure. Yes, adding turbos to a car increases the comp...
by MindBogler
Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Auto Loan vs Mortgage
Replies: 29
Views: 2002

Re: Auto Loan vs Mortgage

Your car loan is at .9%, you can put 29k in an account at Ally and come out ahead. There is no reason to pay that off early while you still have PMI. You sure about the first quoted sentence? Does Ally pay more than inflation and taxes that beats a rate of 0.9% if your only two choices are to pay o...
by MindBogler
Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tracking towards a million and retiring at 55.
Replies: 38
Views: 5415

Re: Tracking towards a million and retiring at 55.

I may be in the minority here but I think you are on track. That is a generous pension and it will largely cover your expenses once you only have a single mortgage payment. Your portfolio only needs to hold the line until you start taking SS. Even if you draw at 62, I think you are still OK. The boa...
by MindBogler
Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tracking towards a million and retiring at 55.
Replies: 38
Views: 5415

Re: Tracking towards a million and retiring at 55.

The only debts I may be able to pay off sooner amount to $29,000 total, 2nd car $330 @3% and travel trailer $175 @ 5% (really low for this type of loan plus a claim the interests. Is there a reason you are holding on to the cash flow negative rental property? Have you considered selling it or are y...
by MindBogler
Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tracking towards a million and retiring at 55.
Replies: 38
Views: 5415

Re: Tracking towards a million and retiring at 55.

The only debts I may be able to pay off sooner amount to $29,000 total, 2nd car $330 @3% and travel trailer $175 @ 5% (really low for this type of loan plus a claim the interests. Is there a reason you are holding on to the cash flow negative rental property? Have you considered selling it or are y...
by MindBogler
Tue Jun 20, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tracking towards a million and retiring at 55.
Replies: 38
Views: 5415

Re: Tracking towards a million and retiring at 55.

7% is optimistic. Run your numbers again, only now use 6%, 5% and 4% then see how your plan looks. As of now, most industry projections show optimistic real returns of 4-5% for equities only, fixed income is zero to negative. I dont think 55 is the number unless you can bump savings rate higher. Wi...
by MindBogler
Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Monitoring -- Best Practices?
Replies: 33
Views: 1368

Re: Market Monitoring -- Best Practices?

I decided to migrate to 70/30 today. My allocation had drifted to close to 85/15 from recent gains. Its been almost 10 years since early 2009 when I shifted to 80/20. I'm not in the same place as I was then and I do not need to be taking this much risk today. I will sleep better tonight. :)
by MindBogler
Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Auto Loan vs Mortgage
Replies: 29
Views: 2002

Re: Auto Loan vs Mortgage

I would pay down to get rid of PMI asap and look into a refinance. I haven't checked rates recently but I think you can shave .75 off that loan for a 30 yr fixed. Your car loan is at .9%, you can put 29k in an account at Ally and come out ahead. There is no reason to pay that off early while you sti...
by MindBogler
Sun Jun 18, 2017 6:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Negotiating a House Using Seller's Agent (opinions wanted)
Replies: 78
Views: 3065

Re: Negotiating a House Using Seller's Agent (opinions wanted)

Should I give the seller's agent a heads up we are thinking of getting our own agent, since he has already shown us the house twice and spent time with us looking at a few other houses? Of course we have not signed anything with him, but I feel like he deserves a call first. I believe you are under...
by MindBogler
Sun Jun 18, 2017 5:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Negotiating a House Using Seller's Agent (opinions wanted)
Replies: 78
Views: 3065

Re: Negotiating a House Using Seller's Agent (opinions wanted)

The OP doesn't need to explain anything in relation to the owner prior purchase price - that anchor is wholly irrelevant to the price today. It is absolutely relevant. If the seller overpaid in 2012 they may be asking too much today to try and "make up for their loss." If that is the case...
by MindBogler
Sun Jun 18, 2017 5:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Negotiating a House Using Seller's Agent (opinions wanted)
Replies: 78
Views: 3065

Re: Negotiating a House Using Seller's Agent (opinions wanted)

Also, a house of similar size on the same street just sold for $330,000. The lot is not flat and there is only a 2 car garage, but it would be considered a comp. This would suggest that the home for sale would not appraise high enough for a loan in the range the sellers are asking for. A buyer's ag...
by MindBogler
Sun Jun 18, 2017 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Negotiating a House Using Seller's Agent (opinions wanted)
Replies: 78
Views: 3065

Re: Negotiating a House Using Seller's Agent (opinions wanted)

Given you have now been rejected twice, I suspect you do not understand the market as well as you claim. You want the home and the seller has a price. That is the market price. I know housing markets vary widely, but I don't believe there is a single market in the USA where housing has not apprecia...
by MindBogler
Sun Jun 18, 2017 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Negotiating a House Using Seller's Agent (opinions wanted)
Replies: 78
Views: 3065

Re: Negotiating a House Using Seller's Agent (opinions wanted)

Not in your original response, you said that the 'sellar has a price' and that 'is the market price'. Indeed I did and I stand corrected. I stand by my original reasoning, though, even if I failed to properly convey it. Without additional knowledge of the property or area, the seller's "ballpa...
by MindBogler
Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Negotiating a House Using Seller's Agent (opinions wanted)
Replies: 78
Views: 3065

Re: Negotiating a House Using Seller's Agent (opinions wanted)

Factoring in the agent's commission, the seller is probably just about getting what they paid for the house back in 2012 with a $393 sale price...not that that has anything to do with the current value of the house. Sometimes, it just takes time for sellers to accept that they are going to lose mon...
by MindBogler
Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Negotiating a House Using Seller's Agent (opinions wanted)
Replies: 78
Views: 3065

Re: Negotiating a House Using Seller's Agent (opinions wanted)

Out of curiosity - what is the zestimate for the house? $388,000 Also -what was the avg house price for that area when they bought the house - and what is that average now? $187,000 when bought $196,000 now What is the $/sqft of this property? What are the $/sqft of comparable properties and recent...
by MindBogler
Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Negotiating a House Using Seller's Agent (opinions wanted)
Replies: 78
Views: 3065

Re: Negotiating a House Using Seller's Agent (opinions wanted)

Well, given that the seller has also already dropped the price (making them providing the same number of asks as the OP has bids), is moving this summer, didn't wait only 3 days for it to move (it was a month between offers), tried to reach out to the OP inviting a new bid, and hasn't had any addit...
by MindBogler
Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Negotiating a House Using Seller's Agent (opinions wanted)
Replies: 78
Views: 3065

Re: Negotiating a House Using Seller's Agent (opinions wanted)

No it isn't. The market price is the price that a seller and a buyer agree to a transaction - that they have no other buyers appearing for that price tells you it is not the market price (not any more than the buyers offer is anyway). I think you're searching too hard for semantics while missing th...
by MindBogler
Sun Jun 18, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Negotiating a House Using Seller's Agent (opinions wanted)
Replies: 78
Views: 3065

Re: Negotiating a House Using Seller's Agent (opinions wanted)

Given you have now been rejected twice, I suspect you do not understand the market as well as you claim. You want the home and the seller has a price. That is the market price. I know housing markets vary widely, but I don't believe there is a single market in the USA where housing has not appreciat...
by MindBogler
Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Monitoring -- Best Practices?
Replies: 33
Views: 1368

Re: Market Monitoring -- Best Practices?

The stock market is volatile and thus it is prudent to be cautious. I have said that this is a good time to rebalance the portfolio. I have also said that if valuations are making you nervous that there is nothing wrong with taking a bit off the top, that is reducing your commitment to the stock ma...
by MindBogler
Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Monitoring -- Best Practices?
Replies: 33
Views: 1368

Re: Market Monitoring -- Best Practices?

...I do not believe we are in a mania here... Agreed. It feels completely different from 1998-2000. Of course now that I'm retired I'm talking to different sets of people... This time its different. Touché, but not touché. What I mean is that to me it feels more or less normal. In 1998-2000 it felt...
by MindBogler
Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Monitoring -- Best Practices?
Replies: 33
Views: 1368

Re: Market Monitoring -- Best Practices?

I just know that market timing doesn't work. I do not believe we are in a mania here. The last 8 years have been highly rewarding for buy and hold investors. Touching your portfolio for any reason could be construed by some as market timing. But I do not believe there is anything wrong with periodi...
by MindBogler
Sat Jun 17, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Monitoring -- Best Practices?
Replies: 33
Views: 1368

Re: Market Monitoring -- Best Practices?

Primarily, I look at the P/E ratio of the market and look at market sentiment. This is not actionable except at the extremes and we are not at an extreme now. The yield curve is flattening rapidly and we're at a PE10 level that has only occurred 3 times previously on Black Friday and while ascendin...
by MindBogler
Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe
Replies: 66
Views: 8120

Re: John Bogle warning

The chance of everyone indexing in the foreseeable future is basically zero. I believe the chance is exactly zero. Does anyone think algorithmic trading is going anywhere? The end game might be some percentage of indexers with the majority of market movement driven by robots but this future is also...
by MindBogler
Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: contribution of more than $18,000 to 401k - no refund?
Replies: 31
Views: 1783

Re: contribution of more than $18,000 to 401k - no refund?

While the statement could have been worded more effectively, I think it is fairly obvious that the response indicates that only $18k would be taken, so no money would be refunded. Is it just me or is everyone in the world more excited than usual? :beer
by MindBogler
Thu Jun 15, 2017 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mid-40's, single parent, "retired", $1.6M portfolio, investment advice sought.
Replies: 50
Views: 7581

Re: Mid-40's, single parent, "retired", $1.6M portfolio, investment advice sought.

Here is a long series on sustained withdrawal rates for the early retired, with discussion of asset allocations that have worked in the past: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/07/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-1-intro/ As of today, there are 16 parts to this series with more ...
by MindBogler
Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401k contribution match - 50% at 8% or 100% at 6%?
Replies: 10
Views: 929

Re: 401k contribution match - 50% at 8% or 100% at 6%?

doss wrote:Yes, "withholdings" is employee contribution.

So, Company A is clear now as the 'winner". Thank you.

Unless you end up as an HCE in either or both cases then the differences are uncertain.
by MindBogler
Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When you purchase shares, where does the money go?
Replies: 19
Views: 1513

Re: When you purchase shares, where does the money go?

So the mutual fund company purchases the shares. Where does the money go after that? Meaning does a portion of it go to Apple, Microsoft, the companies that make up the funds? Buying shares in an IPO (rare) is like buying a new car. Buying existing shares on the market is like buying a used car. Th...
by MindBogler
Sun Jun 04, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everything keeps going up, this feels too easy?
Replies: 113
Views: 8668

Re: Everything keeps going up, this feels too easy?

May 8, 2017 11:52 a.m. ET - Picking up on a long-running theme, Buffett said that stocks are a much better investment for the long term than Treasury bonds. “Bonds are a terrible choice against stocks and it’s dictated by the mathematics,” he said. 30-year T- bonds yield 3% now while stocks now tra...
by MindBogler
Sun Jun 04, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everything keeps going up, this feels too easy?
Replies: 113
Views: 8668

Re: Everything keeps going up, this feels too easy?

whodidntante wrote:When I have a good run of cards, I like to say "this game's easy!" as I rake in a pot.

:sharebeer
by MindBogler
Tue May 23, 2017 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2623

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

Here's another way of looking at it: Because CAPE is averaged over 10 years, it would be roughly the same the day before and after a crash,... I don't think so. Earnings are average over 10 years, price is current. So if the market fell by 50%, CAPE would also fall by 50% You are correct. PE10 is c...

Go to advanced search