Search found 93 matches

by MEA
Tue Nov 21, 2017 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding VTSAX only
Replies: 46
Views: 4576

Re: Holding VTSAX only

Even better go 50/50 VTSAX/VTIAX and call it a day. Add Total Bond funds when you get older. Simple.... The older I get the more I realize how I like this appraoch. I currenly have 70% VTSAX, 25% VTIAX, 5% VBTLX (only about 2k worth) but I wonder, what is even the point of keeping 2k there? Im 27 y...
by MEA
Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"
Replies: 69
Views: 8713

Re: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"

It will most likely only feel "amazing" for a short period of time. If you worry so much that you can't tolerate a 40/60 or a 30/70 portfolio your mind will most likely find something else to worry about. Perhaps your health. I agree, it sounds like market timing. Market timing to ease the mind. I g...
by MEA
Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 6796

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

I'm a fraidycat and have always had "too conservative" an allocation. As a matter of fact in 2007 I had gotten to thinking that maybe I had overdone it and maybe I should nudge our stock allocation up just a little bit. 2008-2009 showed that it was a good thing I hadn't. We had gauged it about righ...
by MEA
Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?
Replies: 45
Views: 4819

Re: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?

We keep hearing the warnings about high stock valuations and possibility of market losses, poor returns, etc. I believe it, but every time I think about what to do about it, all the other choices stink, so I stay in stocks. And they keep going up for no good reason that I can discern. Cash? no retu...
by MEA
Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 6824

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/bitcoin-is-dropping-right-now-after-a-big-chinese-exchange-said-it-is-closing.html BTC China said in a tweet Thursday it will close down its operations by Sept. 30 as Chinese authorities crack down on cryptocurrencies Wondering if this is it the beginning of the end!...
by MEA
Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 37418

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

I finally got a chance to listen to it, and I enjoyed it too. One question. Is it 4% of the amount you have the year you start the withdrawals, and you withdraw that amount every year regardless of the account balance. Or do you withdraw 4% of the balance of the portfolio as it goes up and down year...
by MEA
Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three Centuries of Asset Returns, 1694-2015
Replies: 35
Views: 4635

Re: Only Three Centuries of Data, 1694-2000

It doesn't make sense to me to use data on stock returns from the 1700s for anything but historical purposes. The British had an Empire that stretched around the world, the fastest communication and transportation between the Old and New Worlds took at least two months by wooden sailing ships, Brit...
by MEA
Sat Aug 05, 2017 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: Look Out When Bonds Pop
Replies: 58
Views: 8905

Re: Greenspan: Look Out When Bonds Pop

Greenspan was on CNBC today, with more of the same https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/04/greenspan-bond-bubble-about-to-break-because-of-abnormally-low-interest-rates.html ..."I have no time frame on the forecast," he said. "I have a chart which goes back to the 1800s and I can tell you that this particu...
by MEA
Tue Aug 01, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: Look Out When Bonds Pop
Replies: 58
Views: 8905

Re: Greenspan: Look Out When Bonds Pop

nedsaid wrote:
drk wrote:He also says that he sees the return of stagflation. Unfortunately, he lost any credibility while inflating the last two bubbles.
What does Alan Greenspan think will cause 1970's style stagflation?
He explains his thinking in this video. Lots of charts too!

https://youtu.be/wJR_gej8Lpc
by MEA
Sat Jul 01, 2017 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What may have led to the US stock sell-off on 6-30-17 at 3:50-4:00 p.m.?
Replies: 50
Views: 5558

Re: What may have led to the US stock sell-off on 6-30-17 at 3:50-4:00 p.m.?

According to Art Cashin it was automated programs reacting to each other. If they had more time maybe we could have seen another flash crash like the one we had in 2010?
by MEA
Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good on Cramer!
Replies: 19
Views: 4507

Re: Good on Cramer!

I caught part of one of his shows a few years ago. He recommended that you save 10 to 15% of your income in a low cost S&P 500 index fund, and he recommended Vanguard. He said if you have anything left over then that's your mad money. He didn't press any buttons or ring any bells, and yeah, it was p...
by MEA
Sun Jun 18, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Financial Advice from Dad (in honor of father's day)
Replies: 78
Views: 6313

Re: Best Financial Advice from Dad (in honor of father's day)

This is a difficult question for me. When I started asking questions about investing back in the 80s and 90s both my father and grandfather (who was living with my parents for the last part of his life) were Bogleheads. I got a lot of good advice. It's hard for me to pick just one because it was all...
by MEA
Sat Jun 17, 2017 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Monitoring -- Best Practices?
Replies: 33
Views: 1806

Re: Market Monitoring -- Best Practices?

I was speaking with a co-worker the other day about the lofty levels the market is reaching. We talked about the possibility of a "Trump bubble". I asked if he and his friends keep an eye on this market and how. He said they check weekly and just try to get a feeling based on the news. While not a ...
by MEA
Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Does Fed Reduce Balance Sheet?
Replies: 24
Views: 3003

Re: How Does Fed Reduce Balance Sheet?

... The part I can't understand is how is all this connected to the stock market? If QE inflated the stock market then why aren't people worried the unwinding of QE will deflate the stock market? For years people attributed the rise in the market to QE. There is no worries that it's all going to be...
by MEA
Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Does Fed Reduce Balance Sheet?
Replies: 24
Views: 3003

Re: How Does Fed Reduce Balance Sheet?

Just want to thank all who spent a few minutes to explain how it works with the Fed redeeming bonds. Sifting through all the replies I gather that the Fed borrows cash from the Treasury and used it to do the QE program. Then that would explain how the Feds balance sheet can be reduced by returning ...
by MEA
Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 276
Views: 40208

Re: Retreat to cash

28-Nov-2016 1500 UTC Well, let's see what happens. Unconvinced by the feedback here, I've decided to get out of the market for a while. I remain convinced that there is an above average probability that the markets will experience a period of significant decline due to turmoil as the US administrat...
by MEA
Sun May 21, 2017 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demand for stocks too high? (investor behavior)
Replies: 20
Views: 2326

Re: Demand for stocks too high? (investor behavior)

Anyone else worried about the demand for stocks? - People don't need to buy or follow individual names, indexing is more prevalent today - Buying the dip has been a rewarded behavior for many years now - 8 years into a recovery - The great recession (which was a traumatic experience), had a short r...
by MEA
Fri May 19, 2017 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Milestone and not peeking. . .
Replies: 66
Views: 8945

Re: Milestone and not peeking. . .

Congratulations! Anyone else find that when they hit a new milestone it doesn't seem like a lot of money anymore. When we reached 100K it didn't seem like a lot of money. I thought if we could double it "that would be a lot of money." But when we reached 200K it no longer seemed like a lot. 400 see...
by MEA
Fri May 19, 2017 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Milestone and not peeking. . .
Replies: 66
Views: 8945

Re: Milestone and not peeking. . .

Congratulations! Anyone else find that when they hit a new milestone it doesn't seem like a lot of money anymore. When we reached 100K it didn't seem like a lot of money. I thought if we could double it "that would be a lot of money." But when we reached 200K it no longer seemed like a lot. 400 seem...
by MEA
Sat Apr 22, 2017 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 336
Views: 43222

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."

I wish you would reconsider Larry. Obviously you're going to be missed by many here. I was just starting to read your posts and understand your approach to investing. It's a little more complicated than my simple buy and hold the S&P 500 approach. It's time for us (my wife and I) to start to protect...
by MEA
Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single most important investing advice?
Replies: 97
Views: 13179

Re: Single most important investing advice?

30 years ago my father advised me to buy and hold low cost index funds. Don't waste money, invest it for the long run. Go 100% stocks when you're young. Pay yourself first. When stocks go down you get more shares for your money. Don't stop buying when the market sells off. Take advantage of a IRA. E...
by MEA
Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 4036

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

Reading this thread makes me wonder how much wealth will be passed down to the next generation. And how much of that wealth will go from bond funds to stock funds?
by MEA
Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?
Replies: 76
Views: 9850

Re: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?

PE10 is hovering around 30. The only times these levels were reached before were the late 1920s and late 1990s. I realize feeling is subjective, but I recall the 2000 and 2008 and things just don't really "feel" like those times. I don't see similar warning articles by the usual permabear...
by MEA
Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 224
Views: 21108

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

Full disclosure, I was too young to be invested during the financial crisis. That being said, I'm having trouble understanding how bad it was. I hear about these bear markets (tech bubble, financial crisis, etc). All I see is a sharp decline, and then everything is gained back a couple years later....
by MEA
Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 22133

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

Innovation is an exponential process. It happens faster and faster. In the beginning of this excellent but long post about artificial intelligence, the Waitbutwhy blog discusses the speed of innovation: m It's very thought-provoking and I warmly recommend it. Thanks, That was good. It's hard for me...
by MEA
Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am timing the market. Why am I wrong?
Replies: 89
Views: 7086

Re: I am timing the market. Why am I wrong?

I'm looking for someone to explain why I am wrong. Back in the 90s I read a article in Morningstar magazine. It said that the stock market goes up 70% of the time and it goes down 30% of the time. Anytime you take your money out you have a 70% chance it's going up and a 30% chance it's going down. ...
by MEA
Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Almost made it through another year without breaking a rule- but then, we learned to Scuba
Replies: 31
Views: 3026

Re: Almost made it through another year without breaking a rule- but then, we learned to Scuba

Cozumel dose have a fresh water cave system, and you do need a cave certification to dive it. However a cave certification is not required to go through the swim-throughs out on the reefs. Some divers opt-out and swim over the top. They can see the bubbles and follow the group without going in. Devi...
by MEA
Sun Jan 01, 2017 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Almost made it through another year without breaking a rule- but then, we learned to Scuba
Replies: 31
Views: 3026

Re: Almost made it through another year without breaking a rule- but then, we learned to Scuba

A nitrox course will teach you more about this aspect of diving. Interesting. I have always avoided nitrox training because I enjoy diving at depth. Depends on what depth. Devil's Throat on Cozumel exits around 130 feet, so typical nitrox blends won't work for that. But 32% Nitrox is safe to 111 fe...
by MEA
Sat Dec 31, 2016 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Almost made it through another year without breaking a rule- but then, we learned to Scuba
Replies: 31
Views: 3026

Re: Almost made it through another year without breaking a rule- but then, we learned to Scuba

Hery wrote:Also, any divers out there with tips for us newbies to keep costs down?


There is no way to keep costs down when it comes to scuba. Three quarters of the world is underwater, how else are you going to see it? I would start here though http://www.scubaboard.com/community/forums/cozumel.208/
by MEA
Sat Dec 31, 2016 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spending during retirement
Replies: 9
Views: 1183

Re: Spending during retirement

We live in a lower cost state, own a paid for home and maintain it, have 2 autos. Our in-retirement spending, including taxes (very little), travel and donations were as follows: 2016 year $52,767 (no big expense this time). I will add to that our New Years Eve, which is also our 56th anniversary, ...
by MEA
Sat Dec 31, 2016 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spending during retirement
Replies: 9
Views: 1183

Spending during retirement

I would be interested in hearing what Bogleheads are spending in their retirement years. I am most interested in people getting by on less than 75,000 a year. I don't see how we can do this for less than 75,000 a year. This will be early retirement for us (56 and 58) so I am taking into account heal...
by MEA
Fri Dec 30, 2016 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Allocation if you don't care about Volatility
Replies: 26
Views: 1772

Re: Bond Allocation if you don't care about Volatility

Hi, I am a young investor (in my 20's) and my investment horizon is 40+ years. If I don't care about volatility and only about getting the market return, is there any reason to have bonds other than investor psychology (i.e. reducing volatility so I'm less likely to sell assets in a downmarket). Hi...
by MEA
Wed Dec 28, 2016 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remember what it was like before the recession?
Replies: 81
Views: 9597

Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

My other recollection is the 'psychology' of the market. People may say, "Oh, there was plenty of warning and X was talking about it" but that is not my recollection at all. People were investing - a lot. They were flipping houses - a lot. Unemployment was very low. Thinking back, there w...
by MEA
Tue Dec 27, 2016 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remember what it was like before the recession?
Replies: 81
Views: 9597

Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

I remember discussing if housing was in a bubble with a coworker. Our discussion wasn't about if it was in a bubble, but what would happen when it popped. Would it take down the stock market? He said yes housing was too big a part of the economy and it would. I wasn't convinced of that. I thought th...
by MEA
Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think is in more of a bubble right now?
Replies: 57
Views: 7488

Re: What do you think is in more of a bubble right now?

Chances are the next black swan event will not be a repeat of something we have seen before. Just one possibility - are we in a "trade bubble?" It is being taken for granted that the United States is participating freely in an enormous global marketplace where the trend is towards lower t...
by MEA
Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 276
Views: 40208

Re: Retreat to cash

I don't think anybody expected this bizarre runaway stock market. Unexpected, yes. But I don't think it is bizarre at all. The market is reacting to the strong likelihood that earnings will rise as a result of lower corporate tax rates. If earnings go up 10%, that adds around 220 points to the S&am...
by MEA
Sat Dec 17, 2016 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 276
Views: 40208

Re: Retreat to cash

I don't think anybody expected this bizarre runaway stock market. Unexpected, yes. But I don't think it is bizarre at all. The market is reacting to the strong likelihood that earnings will rise as a result of lower corporate tax rates. If earnings go up 10%, that adds around 220 points to the S&am...
by MEA
Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think is in more of a bubble right now?
Replies: 57
Views: 7488

Re: What do you think is in more of a bubble right now?

Education is too obvious. Bubbles are stealthy.
by MEA
Fri Dec 16, 2016 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think is in more of a bubble right now?
Replies: 57
Views: 7488

Re: What do you think is in more of a bubble right now?

Just curious. What do you think is in more of a bubble right now? (1) U.S. Stocks (the PE ratio of the S&P 500 is at 26 for chrissakes!, etc.) (2) long-term bonds (government stimulus is going to cause inflation to go up which will be heckish on long-term bonds, etc.) (3) Other This is how I th...
by MEA
Thu Dec 15, 2016 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 276
Views: 40208

Re: Retreat to cash

28-Nov-2016 1500 UTC Well let's see what happens For those of you that want the opportunity to say “I told you so.”, today’s market indexes at the time I placed the orders: Dow 19,103 S&P 2,208.52 NAS 5,386 VTI 114.28 The interesting question is how to decide when/if to get back in. I’ll make t...
by MEA
Thu Dec 15, 2016 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 276
Views: 40208

Re: Retreat to cash

28-Nov-2016 1500 UTC Well let's see what happens For those of you that want the opportunity to say “I told you so.”, today’s market indexes at the time I placed the orders: Dow 19,103 S&P 2,208.52 NAS 5,386 VTI 114.28 The interesting question is how to decide when/if to get back in. I’ll make t...
by MEA
Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FED Raises Rates - Sky Falls! Bond Prices are UP!
Replies: 34
Views: 7405

Re: FED Raises Rates - Sky Falls! Bond Prices are UP!

What's interesting to me is that folks on this forum state the market has things "priced in." It seemed the rate increase would have been priced in yesterday, yet markets are down today. Yes the Fed has been telegraphing a quarter point rate hike but they also insist that they are data de...
by MEA
Sun Dec 11, 2016 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing
Replies: 24
Views: 2185

Re: Market timing

Today is as good a time as any to predict if equities are in a bubble. They have been doing well for eight years now. The world is a mess, they really shouldn't be going up like this. So you tell me is it a bubble about to burst? If it collapses in 17 it will be very obvious it was. If it keeps goi...
by MEA
Sun Dec 11, 2016 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing
Replies: 24
Views: 2185

Re: Market timing

Hi, We know we can't predict future movement of the market based on the past results. Can some people see for example that oil prices are not sustainable 100$ a barrel and there is a chance that that high price will have a negative effect on prices, spending etc. But couldn't some very smart people...
by MEA
Sun Dec 11, 2016 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Dow 36,000's" stock picks
Replies: 47
Views: 6566

Re: "Dow 36,000's" stock picks

In 1999 I had my money in 7 mutual funds. $35000 in 7 different mutual funds. One was VFINX. After reading The Roaring 2000s I came very very close to selling the funds and splitting it between UPS, and Cisco. I didn't follow through with it, but those were my pics. UPS for all the online deliverys ...
by MEA
Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term interest rates
Replies: 13
Views: 1528

Re: Long term interest rates

Why do interest rates reverse course just because they hit zero? For 30 years interest rates have been on a downward trajectory. Whatever is causing it, demographics, modern technology, whatever it is it would seem as though those forces would continue to hold rates down. What causes them to change...
by MEA
Sat Dec 10, 2016 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blockchain technology
Replies: 1
Views: 535

Blockchain technology

How will it affect a Boglehead?

https://youtu.be/O1Yo8bt8JAU
by MEA
Sat Dec 10, 2016 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term interest rates
Replies: 13
Views: 1528

Re: Long term interest rates

Why do interest rates reverse course just because they hit zero? For 30 years interest rates have been on a downward trajectory. Whatever is causing it, demographics, modern technology, whatever it is it would seem as though those forces would continue to hold rates down. What causes them to change...