Search found 77 matches

by MEA
Sun May 21, 2017 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demand for stocks too high? (investor behavior)
Replies: 20
Views: 1826

Re: Demand for stocks too high? (investor behavior)

Anyone else worried about the demand for stocks? - People don't need to buy or follow individual names, indexing is more prevalent today - Buying the dip has been a rewarded behavior for many years now - 8 years into a recovery - The great recession (which was a traumatic experience), had a short r...
by MEA
Fri May 19, 2017 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Milestone and not peeking. . .
Replies: 57
Views: 5758

Re: Milestone and not peeking. . .

Congratulations! Anyone else find that when they hit a new milestone it doesn't seem like a lot of money anymore. When we reached 100K it didn't seem like a lot of money. I thought if we could double it "that would be a lot of money." But when we reached 200K it no longer seemed like a lo...
by MEA
Fri May 19, 2017 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Milestone and not peeking. . .
Replies: 57
Views: 5758

Re: Milestone and not peeking. . .

Congratulations! Anyone else find that when they hit a new milestone it doesn't seem like a lot of money anymore. When we reached 100K it didn't seem like a lot of money. I thought if we could double it "that would be a lot of money." But when we reached 200K it no longer seemed like a lot...
by MEA
Sat Apr 22, 2017 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 336
Views: 36753

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."

I wish you would reconsider Larry. Obviously you're going to be missed by many here. I was just starting to read your posts and understand your approach to investing. It's a little more complicated than my simple buy and hold the S&P 500 approach. It's time for us (my wife and I) to start to pro...
by MEA
Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single most important investing advice?
Replies: 96
Views: 11058

Re: Single most important investing advice?

30 years ago my father advised me to buy and hold low cost index funds. Don't waste money, invest it for the long run. Go 100% stocks when you're young. Pay yourself first. When stocks go down you get more shares for your money. Don't stop buying when the market sells off. Take advantage of a IRA. E...
by MEA
Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3365

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

Reading this thread makes me wonder how much wealth will be passed down to the next generation. And how much of that wealth will go from bond funds to stock funds?
by MEA
Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?
Replies: 76
Views: 8882

Re: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?

PE10 is hovering around 30. The only times these levels were reached before were the late 1920s and late 1990s. I realize feeling is subjective, but I recall the 2000 and 2008 and things just don't really "feel" like those times. I don't see similar warning articles by the usual permabear...
by MEA
Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 224
Views: 19205

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

Full disclosure, I was too young to be invested during the financial crisis. That being said, I'm having trouble understanding how bad it was. I hear about these bear markets (tech bubble, financial crisis, etc). All I see is a sharp decline, and then everything is gained back a couple years later....
by MEA
Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 20577

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

Innovation is an exponential process. It happens faster and faster. In the beginning of this excellent but long post about artificial intelligence, the Waitbutwhy blog discusses the speed of innovation: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html It's very thought-provok...
by MEA
Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am timing the market. Why am I wrong?
Replies: 89
Views: 6349

Re: I am timing the market. Why am I wrong?

I'm looking for someone to explain why I am wrong. Back in the 90s I read a article in Morningstar magazine. It said that the stock market goes up 70% of the time and it goes down 30% of the time. Anytime you take your money out you have a 70% chance it's going up and a 30% chance it's going down. ...
by MEA
Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Almost made it through another year without breaking a rule- but then, we learned to Scuba
Replies: 31
Views: 2814

Re: Almost made it through another year without breaking a rule- but then, we learned to Scuba

Cozumel dose have a fresh water cave system, and you do need a cave certification to dive it. However a cave certification is not required to go through the swim-throughs out on the reefs. Some divers opt-out and swim over the top. They can see the bubbles and follow the group without going in. Devi...
by MEA
Sun Jan 01, 2017 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Almost made it through another year without breaking a rule- but then, we learned to Scuba
Replies: 31
Views: 2814

Re: Almost made it through another year without breaking a rule- but then, we learned to Scuba

A nitrox course will teach you more about this aspect of diving. Interesting. I have always avoided nitrox training because I enjoy diving at depth. Depends on what depth. Devil's Throat on Cozumel exits around 130 feet, so typical nitrox blends won't work for that. But 32% Nitrox is safe to 111 fe...
by MEA
Sat Dec 31, 2016 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Almost made it through another year without breaking a rule- but then, we learned to Scuba
Replies: 31
Views: 2814

Re: Almost made it through another year without breaking a rule- but then, we learned to Scuba

Hery wrote:Also, any divers out there with tips for us newbies to keep costs down?


There is no way to keep costs down when it comes to scuba. Three quarters of the world is underwater, how else are you going to see it? I would start here though http://www.scubaboard.com/community/forums/cozumel.208/
by MEA
Sat Dec 31, 2016 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spending during retirement
Replies: 9
Views: 1050

Re: Spending during retirement

We live in a lower cost state, own a paid for home and maintain it, have 2 autos. Our in-retirement spending, including taxes (very little), travel and donations were as follows: 2016 year $52,767 (no big expense this time). I will add to that our New Years Eve, which is also our 56th anniversary, ...
by MEA
Sat Dec 31, 2016 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spending during retirement
Replies: 9
Views: 1050

Spending during retirement

I would be interested in hearing what Bogleheads are spending in their retirement years. I am most interested in people getting by on less than 75,000 a year. I don't see how we can do this for less than 75,000 a year. This will be early retirement for us (56 and 58) so I am taking into account heal...
by MEA
Fri Dec 30, 2016 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Allocation if you don't care about Volatility
Replies: 26
Views: 1615

Re: Bond Allocation if you don't care about Volatility

Hi, I am a young investor (in my 20's) and my investment horizon is 40+ years. If I don't care about volatility and only about getting the market return, is there any reason to have bonds other than investor psychology (i.e. reducing volatility so I'm less likely to sell assets in a downmarket). Hi...
by MEA
Wed Dec 28, 2016 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remember what it was like before the recession?
Replies: 81
Views: 8940

Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

My other recollection is the 'psychology' of the market. People may say, "Oh, there was plenty of warning and X was talking about it" but that is not my recollection at all. People were investing - a lot. They were flipping houses - a lot. Unemployment was very low. Thinking back, there w...
by MEA
Tue Dec 27, 2016 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remember what it was like before the recession?
Replies: 81
Views: 8940

Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

I remember discussing if housing was in a bubble with a coworker. Our discussion wasn't about if it was in a bubble, but what would happen when it popped. Would it take down the stock market? He said yes housing was too big a part of the economy and it would. I wasn't convinced of that. I thought th...
by MEA
Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think is in more of a bubble right now?
Replies: 57
Views: 7092

Re: What do you think is in more of a bubble right now?

Chances are the next black swan event will not be a repeat of something we have seen before. Just one possibility - are we in a "trade bubble?" It is being taken for granted that the United States is participating freely in an enormous global marketplace where the trend is towards lower t...
by MEA
Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 227
Views: 25962

Re: Retreat to cash

I don't think anybody expected this bizarre runaway stock market. Unexpected, yes. But I don't think it is bizarre at all. The market is reacting to the strong likelihood that earnings will rise as a result of lower corporate tax rates. If earnings go up 10%, that adds around 220 points to the S&am...
by MEA
Sat Dec 17, 2016 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 227
Views: 25962

Re: Retreat to cash

I don't think anybody expected this bizarre runaway stock market. Unexpected, yes. But I don't think it is bizarre at all. The market is reacting to the strong likelihood that earnings will rise as a result of lower corporate tax rates. If earnings go up 10%, that adds around 220 points to the S&am...
by MEA
Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think is in more of a bubble right now?
Replies: 57
Views: 7092

Re: What do you think is in more of a bubble right now?

Education is too obvious. Bubbles are stealthy.
by MEA
Fri Dec 16, 2016 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think is in more of a bubble right now?
Replies: 57
Views: 7092

Re: What do you think is in more of a bubble right now?

Just curious. What do you think is in more of a bubble right now? (1) U.S. Stocks (the PE ratio of the S&P 500 is at 26 for chrissakes!, etc.) (2) long-term bonds (government stimulus is going to cause inflation to go up which will be heckish on long-term bonds, etc.) (3) Other This is how I th...
by MEA
Thu Dec 15, 2016 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 227
Views: 25962

Re: Retreat to cash

28-Nov-2016 1500 UTC Well let's see what happens For those of you that want the opportunity to say “I told you so.”, today’s market indexes at the time I placed the orders: Dow 19,103 S&P 2,208.52 NAS 5,386 VTI 114.28 The interesting question is how to decide when/if to get back in. I’ll make t...
by MEA
Thu Dec 15, 2016 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 227
Views: 25962

Re: Retreat to cash

28-Nov-2016 1500 UTC Well let's see what happens For those of you that want the opportunity to say “I told you so.”, today’s market indexes at the time I placed the orders: Dow 19,103 S&P 2,208.52 NAS 5,386 VTI 114.28 The interesting question is how to decide when/if to get back in. I’ll make t...
by MEA
Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FED Raises Rates - Sky Falls! Bond Prices are UP!
Replies: 29
Views: 5815

Re: FED Raises Rates - Sky Falls! Bond Prices are UP!

What's interesting to me is that folks on this forum state the market has things "priced in." It seemed the rate increase would have been priced in yesterday, yet markets are down today. Yes the Fed has been telegraphing a quarter point rate hike but they also insist that they are data de...
by MEA
Sun Dec 11, 2016 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing
Replies: 24
Views: 1963

Re: Market timing

Today is as good a time as any to predict if equities are in a bubble. They have been doing well for eight years now. The world is a mess, they really shouldn't be going up like this. So you tell me is it a bubble about to burst? If it collapses in 17 it will be very obvious it was. If it keeps goi...
by MEA
Sun Dec 11, 2016 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing
Replies: 24
Views: 1963

Re: Market timing

Hi, We know we can't predict future movement of the market based on the past results. Can some people see for example that oil prices are not sustainable 100$ a barrel and there is a chance that that high price will have a negative effect on prices, spending etc. But couldn't some very smart people...
by MEA
Sun Dec 11, 2016 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Dow 36,000's" stock picks
Replies: 47
Views: 6094

Re: "Dow 36,000's" stock picks

In 1999 I had my money in 7 mutual funds. $35000 in 7 different mutual funds. One was VFINX. After reading The Roaring 2000s I came very very close to selling the funds and splitting it between UPS, and Cisco. I didn't follow through with it, but those were my pics. UPS for all the online deliverys ...
by MEA
Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term interest rates
Replies: 13
Views: 1368

Re: Long term interest rates

Why do interest rates reverse course just because they hit zero? For 30 years interest rates have been on a downward trajectory. Whatever is causing it, demographics, modern technology, whatever it is it would seem as though those forces would continue to hold rates down. What causes them to change...
by MEA
Sat Dec 10, 2016 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blockchain technology
Replies: 1
Views: 491

Blockchain technology

How will it affect a Boglehead?

https://youtu.be/O1Yo8bt8JAU
by MEA
Sat Dec 10, 2016 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term interest rates
Replies: 13
Views: 1368

Re: Long term interest rates

Why do interest rates reverse course just because they hit zero? For 30 years interest rates have been on a downward trajectory. Whatever is causing it, demographics, modern technology, whatever it is it would seem as though those forces would continue to hold rates down. What causes them to change...
by MEA
Sat Dec 10, 2016 4:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term interest rates
Replies: 13
Views: 1368

Long term interest rates

Why do interest rates reverse course just because they hit zero? For 30 years interest rates have been on a downward trajectory. Whatever is causing it, demographics, modern technology, whatever it is it would seem as though those forces would continue to hold rates down. What causes them to change ...
by MEA
Mon Dec 05, 2016 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will increasing levels of automation propel developed markets ahead?
Replies: 3
Views: 470

Re: Will increasing levels of automation propel developed markets ahead?

I have been contemplating the economic impacts of automation and wish to what others think on the subject Will increasing levels of automation result in exponential growth in focused areas of the globe, ie developed markets, prompting developed markets to propel forward at a increase rate relative ...
by MEA
Sun Nov 27, 2016 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm calling a bond bottom.
Replies: 31
Views: 7180

Re: I'm calling a bond bottom.

I enjoyed this interview with Alan Greenspan. You can actually understand what he is talking about. He gives his thoughts on future inflation at 10:30.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/20 ... -and-rates
by MEA
Sun Nov 27, 2016 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Composition of US National Debt
Replies: 28
Views: 3767

Re: Composition of US National Debt

Like a real household, it makes no sense to focus solely on debt and ignore assets. You may have a $500k mortgage on a $1 million house, it does not mean you are deeply in trouble.... I don't believe bulk of US debt is backed by any assets other than the good faith of the US government, no? So the ...
by MEA
Sat Nov 26, 2016 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your personal rate of inflation?
Replies: 35
Views: 4468

Re: What is your personal rate of inflation?

All of the inflation in the last few years we (my wife and I) have experienced have come from food and energy. Accept for the $2 a tank more it costs me to fill my scuba tanks. But I think that has to do with the cost of electricity too. The relationship between modern technology and inflation is in...
by MEA
Thu Nov 24, 2016 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 227
Views: 25962

Re: Retreat to cash

You're not the only one toying with the idea that you can reduce risk by removing your money from the market from time to time. I've been thinking about it too. However the fact remains that the market goes up 70% of the time, and down 30% of the time. If we get out we have a 70% chance the market w...
by MEA
Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Average stock returns over next 50 years
Replies: 11
Views: 2137

Re: Average stock returns over next 50 years

The next 50 years will probably see more change than there was in the last 300. 50 years falls in the timeframe of predictions for the coming Singularity. With or without it you had better fasten your seatbelt. It's a big :?:
by MEA
Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the US stock market too big to fail now?
Replies: 3
Views: 834

Re: Is the US stock market too big to fail now?

They say that low interest rates cause bubbles. Maybe they're right?
by MEA
Fri Sep 30, 2016 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the US stock market too big to fail now?
Replies: 3
Views: 834

Is the US stock market too big to fail now?

In this low interest rate environment the Fed is concerned that they don't have the tools to deal with a economic downturn. They want the ability to buy equities. The S&P 500 I assume. Maybe all indexes? It seems as though a index with a Janet Yellen put backing it up would have a unfair advanta...
by MEA
Sun Sep 25, 2016 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling in October
Replies: 43
Views: 3516

Re: Market Timing

Everyone has heard of sell in May and go away. What would be wrong with sitting out October? Given enough time it would seem as though this strategy would pay off. Any thoughts? MEA: My thought is to forget market-timing. Stay the course. What Experts Say About Market Timing Best wishes. Taylor It ...
by MEA
Sun Sep 25, 2016 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling in October
Replies: 43
Views: 3516

Re: Selling in October

No, I haven't back-tested. I don't know how to do that. My gut feeling is that it would be a wash. No increase or decrease in return. The payoff would come from not having to endure the large downturns that seem to happen in October. Arct, is it market timing if l sell and buy on a pre-determined d...
by MEA
Sun Sep 25, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling in October
Replies: 43
Views: 3516

Re: Selling in October

Everyone has heard of sell in May and go away. What would be wrong with sitting out October? Given enough time it would seem as though this strategy would pay off. Any thoughts? Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this an example of something you criticized in the following post: https://www.boglehe...
by MEA
Sun Sep 25, 2016 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling in October
Replies: 43
Views: 3516

Re: Selling in October

MEA: you can do as you please of course but you still would presumably want to buy back into the market. What is your strategy for that? At the very least, please develop a catchy rhyming second clause to get us interested. Maybe "sell in October, until it's all over". That sounds like as...
by MEA
Sun Sep 25, 2016 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling in October
Replies: 43
Views: 3516

Re: Selling in October

LAlearning wrote:Uh, why would this pay off?

You must not have the same fear of October that I have.
by MEA
Sun Sep 25, 2016 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling in October
Replies: 43
Views: 3516

Selling in October

Everyone has heard of sell in May and go away. What would be wrong with sitting out October? Given enough time it would seem as though this strategy would pay off. Any thoughts?
by MEA
Sun May 22, 2016 5:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?
Replies: 206
Views: 23916

Re: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?

So many here are doing well. High net worth with problems related to how to diversify and manage all of that. Many people thinking of working until 70. Are there any blue collar workers in BH land? People whose jobs are probably not much fun when you reach your sixties. When the physical demands ar...

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