Search found 254 matches

by Lobster
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does this happen to you? Educating friends about personal finance
Replies: 104
Views: 5902

Re: Does this happen to you? Educating friends about personal finance

You have to tailor the message and the content to the receiver. And you have to give them concrete first steps. If you start talking about the Rule of 72, and the 4% SWR, and they are lost, then you have to take a step back and give them a concrete first step.”Go read a book.”, isn’t an easy first ...
by Lobster
Sun Dec 03, 2017 1:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Podcasts for Bogleheads?
Replies: 23
Views: 3230

Re: Podcasts for Bogleheads?

Masters in Business - Barry Ritholtz
by Lobster
Sat Dec 02, 2017 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin - How it works for the layman
Replies: 30
Views: 2879

Re: Bitcoin - How it works for the layman

The author of the article offers to explain how Bitcoin works, but instead veers off to discussing a "pointless guessing game" which is a secondary issue. Then he describes why he hates the buzzword "disruption" which distracts from the topic. As a senior software engineer he should be able to deci...
by Lobster
Sat Dec 02, 2017 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin - How it works for the layman
Replies: 30
Views: 2879

Re: Bitcoin - How it works for the layman

VictoriaF wrote:
Sat Dec 02, 2017 4:21 pm
The referenced article obfuscates the meaning of bitcoin
I'm interested in what ways you believe the meaning of bitcoin is obfuscated.
by Lobster
Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19584

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

It is a ponzi scam? I am unsure how to answer because I do not fully understand bitcoin or cyber currencies. Does anyone that is "investing" in them? I would like to see a graph that compared bitcoin to the 1600's tulip mania. Just posted a thread on just the topic, hope it's helpful. Bitcoin - How...
by Lobster
Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin - How it works for the layman
Replies: 30
Views: 2879

Bitcoin - How it works for the layman

Hi bogleheads! I have had an increasing number of conversations over dinner and in the hallway about Bitcoin, and wrote this to help clarify in simple terms what it is. I hope it's helpful! Understanding Bitcoin And related reading that might be helpful: Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Fina...
by Lobster
Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2694
Views: 863511

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Benjamin Franklin: An American Life - Walter Isaacson Thomas Jefferson: The Art of Power - Jon Meacham Two fantastic reads about two founding fathers committed to democracy and establishing America on strong principles of freedom and the right of man to govern himself. Isaacson's style is better at ...
by Lobster
Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "36 Obvious Investment Truths"
Replies: 18
Views: 2891

"36 Obvious Investment Truths"

Always nice to have a quick reminder

36 Obvious Investment Truths
by Lobster
Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Put These Charts On Your Wall
Replies: 11
Views: 3332

Re: For anyone worried about the current markets

Dottie57 wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:13 pm
Great chart?
I think my formatting of the post and partial inclusion of the content was confusing, whoops :oops:
by Lobster
Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Put These Charts On Your Wall
Replies: 11
Views: 3332

Put These Charts On Your Wall

Put These Charts On Your Wall

Found this blog post by Charlie Bilello humorous and probably helpful for people who are feeling nervous about the market noise recently.
by Lobster
Tue Aug 08, 2017 2:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with New Portfolio
Replies: 7
Views: 617

Re: Help with New Portfolio

Hi all, I'm 34, my wife is 32. We have been working with an advisor, but want to see if we can manage our portfolios on our own. With that said, we will take new money first, and open a Vanguard taxable account, as well as an IRA for me, and an IRA for her. If things go well, then we will begin to ...
by Lobster
Tue Aug 08, 2017 2:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is an appropriate lower risk asset allocation once one has "won the game"
Replies: 50
Views: 6553

Re: What is an appropriate lower risk asset allocation once one has "won the game"

54% Cash Equiv You might not be as risk averse as you think. Here are a few excerpts from Charlie Ellis' excellent book 'Winning the Loser's Game' about inflation: The message is not just how wonderfully compounding increases real wealth. The message has two parts: The second part is that inflation...
by Lobster
Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Love your family car? Under $16,000 Used? Please share!
Replies: 39
Views: 4734

Re: Love your family car? Under $16,000? Please share!

Found a 2014 Mazda 5 Sport on Carmax for $13,000, single owner, 46 k miles- it looks great...but man...committing to a minivan already is a bit of a heart ache :) The Mazda 5 is quite a bit smaller than a true minivan, I call it a mini minivan :wink:. It's built on a car chassis and drives and hand...
by Lobster
Fri Jul 28, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Timing the Market" / Deciding when to make along term purchase
Replies: 32
Views: 2051

Re: "Timing the Market" / Deciding when to make along term purchase

Hello all, I have posted a few times on here and I have been thrilled by the amount of knowledge and support from all of you! so THANK you! some background info: I was struggling to decide between schwab and vanguard. Since I already have a schwab account and I am pleased with their customer servic...
by Lobster
Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Simple beats complex
Replies: 71
Views: 7461

Re: Why Simple beats complex

Thank you for responding too and for providing the link. Bogle's always a valuable read. I want to clarify my point a bit: I agree that active as a whole has negative alpha. However, this is not to say that the whole active system does not have any merit. There are those who outperform who can just...
by Lobster
Sat Jul 15, 2017 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Simple beats complex
Replies: 71
Views: 7461

Re: Why Simple beats complex

The compensation that active market participants receive is the fees they charge for their assets under management, not investment returns. They simply need to keep up appearances by running multiple strategies simultaneously, thereby ensuring they will always have a few products that happen to be ...
by Lobster
Sat Jul 15, 2017 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Simple beats complex
Replies: 71
Views: 7461

Re: Why Simple beats complex

Can we say this? "Empirical evidence suggests that complex strategy does NOT beat the simple strategy consistently over the long term". Long terms could be 20-40 years. Please notice how the above is very similar to active vs indexing paradigm. Is that a true statement, though? I am not sure that i...
by Lobster
Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Simple beats complex
Replies: 71
Views: 7461

Re: Why Simple beats complex

An index fund's simplicity directly correlates to higher returns. I don't think this is true at all. The "simplicity" of a fund plays no role in the return. "Simple" means easy to understand and is subjective. There are simple funds that perform well and simple funds that perform poorly. And one ca...
by Lobster
Thu Jul 13, 2017 2:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Simple beats complex
Replies: 71
Views: 7461

Re: Why Simple beats complex

Your post shows that costs matter. But one can tilt to areas of (academically) higher expected return with lower market correlations to improve portfolio efficiency for not very much extra cost. It doesn't show that simple beats complex necessarily. The two are different. One can buy index funds th...
by Lobster
Wed Jul 12, 2017 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Simple beats complex
Replies: 71
Views: 7461

Re: Why Simple beats complex

SO... Does anyone have data to support simple beats complex if all is the same? Any study showing if a simple and complex portfolio is used the simple beats out majority of time as long as nothing else is different? My guess is no. So please prove to me I am wrong on this. I'm interested to know wh...
by Lobster
Thu Jul 06, 2017 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Better Version Of The Warren Buffett 90/10 Portfolio?
Replies: 19
Views: 2869

Re: A Better Version Of The Warren Buffett 90/10 Portfolio?

When experts evaluate portfolios, they assess total return, which is expected appreciation plus dividend yield. High dividend strategies do not outperform total return strategies. It's equivalent to liquidate the appreciated shares to match the desired % return. The difference is only emotional/beh...
by Lobster
Tue Jul 04, 2017 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Better Version Of The Warren Buffett 90/10 Portfolio?
Replies: 19
Views: 2869

Re: A Better Version Of The Warren Buffett 90/10 Portfolio?

When experts evaluate portfolios, they assess total return, which is expected appreciation plus dividend yield. High dividend strategies do not outperform total return strategies. It's equivalent to liquidate the appreciated shares to match the desired % return. The difference is only emotional/beha...
by Lobster
Tue Jul 04, 2017 9:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Temporary Internal Promotion - Increased Compensation?
Replies: 73
Views: 4891

Re: Temporary Internal Promotion - Increased Compensation?

At my old megacorp, and at DW's also, if you had that conversation with us, you'd be the subject of eye rolling at our dinner table when we got home. If you were lucky, we'd give you a pass for being green, but green people don't get the next available promotion; they're not ready. You might get aw...
by Lobster
Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foretelling Global Stock Returns, 1980-2015
Replies: 18
Views: 2055

Re: Foretelling Global Stock Returns, 1980-2015

Do we have the data to support that? Reversion to the mean is the concept that I'm referring to. This article has a few solid references. Bogle spends some time on it in his Little Book on Common Sense Investing. I'm not at a computer right now, I'll have to dig up more references later. For what i...
by Lobster
Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Single mom seeking investing advice
Replies: 22
Views: 2346

Re: Single mom seeking investing advice

I have to admit that I am not financial/ stock market savvy person but i am willing to learn. You have a strong start and look to be in great shape overall, way to go! You have received a lot of excellent advice, though sometimes it can be overwhelming! The boglehead philosophy of simplicity is ver...
by Lobster
Sun Jul 02, 2017 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foretelling Global Stock Returns, 1980-2015
Replies: 18
Views: 2055

Re: Foretelling Global Stock Returns, 1980-2015

The first sentence really made me pause and disregard the rest of the post, however. The question of "what is the best predictor of future stock returns?" you posed made me think the answer is none. While I hope it is well understood that we cannot predict the future, it's worthwhile to note that m...
by Lobster
Fri Jun 30, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2 Bond Questions
Replies: 20
Views: 2203

Re: 2 Bond Questions

That being said, I have no problem with VG Total Bond Market (BND) as the main bond portion of my portfolio. As a long term holding, I believe 100% in BND. This approach works out very well for many investors, set it and forget it. Be sure to hold your bond funds in a tax-advantaged account (401k, ...
by Lobster
Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Jack Bogle have a conundrum on his hands?
Replies: 63
Views: 5027

Re: Does Jack Bogle have a conflict of interest?

Vanguard's "S&P500 philosophy" too cemented. Where did this notion come from? I don't recall ever seeing Vanguard pushing the S&P 500 at the expense of any of their other funds. My picture of Vanguard is low cost index funds. Which also isn't entirely accurate, because they also have low-cost activ...
by Lobster
Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best cars for multiple kids
Replies: 51
Views: 3835

Re: Best cars for multiple kids

Another vote for Honda or Toyota minivan. SUVs are much higher and rear seats can be hard to get to to buckle kids etc. And you generally forfeit storage space when you add the third row on an SUV. Minivans are literally designed for your use case :)
by Lobster
Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique first IPS and Planned Transactions
Replies: 4
Views: 561

Re: Critique first IPS and Planned Transactions

Looks like a very solid plan. I felt great after I had simplified everything and made my plan a reality, I expect it will feel the same for you. Regarding individual stocks in taxable, it is definitely worth being conscientious about taking the tax hit. Your plan of liquidating for TLH sounds reason...
by Lobster
Sun Jun 25, 2017 7:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two potential job offers and buying time - please help!
Replies: 13
Views: 1785

Re: Two potential job offers and buying time - please help!

I was referencing about the last (4th one) company that was interested in getting her to jump to their ship. By having an interview with them, she gave them an equal shot. They also offered a very compelling compensation package. All offered sign on bonuses. Some might took it as an affront by not ...
by Lobster
Sun Jun 25, 2017 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive vs Active funds
Replies: 36
Views: 2508

Re: Passive vs Active funds

Take it up with William Sharpe. That is a good point whether it is 20% or 40% or 50%. There are ways to do one's analysis to increase the odds of success to better than 50/50 but most Bogleheads don't want to think about them and S&P's "survivorship" mantra discourages many from even thinking about...
by Lobster
Sun Jun 25, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two potential job offers and buying time - please help!
Replies: 13
Views: 1785

Re: Two potential job offers and buying time - please help!

It's valuable to keep it simple. Explain that you are actively interviewing with another company and that you will not have a response until it completes. You can also ask Company 2 whether they can move the interview up because you've received an offer with another company. Don't go into detail re...
by Lobster
Sun Jun 25, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two Podcasts -- Good?
Replies: 9
Views: 1193

Re: Two Podcasts -- Good?

Masters In Business with Barry Ritholtz is absolutely tremendous, I can't recommend it enough. He's interviewed Jack Bogle, Jack Brennan, Bill McNabb, Charlie Ellis, Burton Malkiel, and many other guests. It's a master class in insights from some of the most important figures in finance, both from a...
by Lobster
Sun Jun 25, 2017 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to stay/what to do in Seattle
Replies: 18
Views: 1651

Re: Where to stay/what to do in Seattle

Pike Place Market (Downtown) is the open-air market Dottie mentioned, and definitely worthwhile. Olympic sculpture park (Downtown) is pleasant and provides a great view of the water. Woodland Park Zoo (Phinney Ridge) is a very nice zoo imo. Not as impressive as San Diego zoo perhaps, but very nice....
by Lobster
Sun Jun 25, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two potential job offers and buying time - please help!
Replies: 13
Views: 1785

Re: Two potential job offers and buying time - please help!

One question - I really need to confirm to company #1 by the 10th (Monday), and will have the lengthy interview session with company #2 on the 7th. SO I will need to know at the end of the day on the 7th if an offer is likely or not. I am willing to take a verbal commitment on the 7th to turn away ...
by Lobster
Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If I want to have a safe portfolio in case of...
Replies: 23
Views: 2196

Re: If I want to have a safe portfolio in case of...

What can I change with my portfolio to make it safe I agree with Tycoon, if you know the future then it will be easy to make a fortune. For the rest of us, we need an asset allocation that reflects our willingness, need, and ability to take risk. Increase your bond allocation until you can sleep we...
by Lobster
Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two potential job offers and buying time - please help!
Replies: 13
Views: 1785

Re: Two potential job offers and buying time - please help!

It's valuable to keep it simple. Explain that you are actively interviewing with another company and that you will not have a response until it completes. You can also ask Company 2 whether they can move the interview up because you've received an offer with another company. Don't go into detail reg...
by Lobster
Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Target Date Retirement a Good Option?
Replies: 10
Views: 1625

Re: Target Date Retirement a Good Option?

A low cost target date fund is a good option. .35% is not bad at all. Unless you want to read a handful of books and self manage, the target date is a great way to go.

Good luck! :sharebeer
by Lobster
Fri Jun 23, 2017 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help me get invested -revised!!
Replies: 26
Views: 2507

Re: Please help me get invested!!

Thanks for the reply! I am trying to keep it as simple as possible, so I like the idea of a single fund in the taxable account to align with the allocation in the tax sheltered account, which will minimize my rebalancing efforts (especially if certain funds are in taxable and others like REIT are n...
by Lobster
Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help me get invested -revised!!
Replies: 26
Views: 2507

Re: Please help me get invested!!

Welcome! Regarding your portfolio, you might consider keeping it even simpler without the REIT and Small tilts. Whichever you go with, its critical to stick with the path you pick for the long haul. Switching strategies every few years will cause real damage. Regarding tax efficiency, in a high tax ...
by Lobster
Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I buy an $800k house?
Replies: 89
Views: 7699

Re: Should I buy an $800k house?

Will be cutting back savings. I just ran the same numbers as KlangFool. If you are saving 110k a year you could buy an 800k house outright in a little over 5 years (with your current 220k cash savings). Not saying this is the best plan, but with that savings rate you have a lot of flexibility. I im...
by Lobster
Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tripped on this this morning - pros and cons? [HELOC as emergency fund]
Replies: 22
Views: 4004

Re: Tripped on this this morning - pros and cons? [HELOC as emergency fund]

I tripped on this article this morning. It's the first time I saw something like this and was wondering if anyone here does this and people's thoughts about it. I started a point by point rebuttal but frankly the article doesn't justify it. It uses a very poor strawman and suggests that the worst c...
by Lobster
Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good camera - new baby coming
Replies: 64
Views: 4984

Re: Good camera - new baby coming

Triple digit golfer wrote: Any suggestions?
We bought an entry level DSLR for the same reason just before our first son was born. To date we use the iphone camera 10 times more often (literally). If I did it over again I'd pay the $150 for the newborn shots they usually take at the hospital and called it good.
by Lobster
Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need to find Loaded Index Funds
Replies: 64
Views: 4898

Re: Need to find Loaded Index Funds

I agree that your employer does not have your best interests in mind. I would focus on your own long term welfare rather than actively harming it by adhering to this absurd mandate.
by Lobster
Mon Jun 12, 2017 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable Life Insurance as an Investment Vehicle
Replies: 39
Views: 3040

Re: Variable Life Insurance as an Investment Vehicle

These products benefit only the salespeople pushing them. They are not appropriate for anyone. Ask them in plain terms to describe the fees, including front end loads, total ongoing expenses as a percent of the principle, and back end loads. Ask to see a comparison between their product and a term l...
by Lobster
Fri Jun 02, 2017 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Even indexing can be too much of a good thing
Replies: 25
Views: 5072

Re: Bogle: Even indexing can be too much of a good thing

I doubt we need 25% of the market being actively managed to maintain enough efficiency that indexing works. I'd guess less than 5% would be enough. Funds are not the primary market-makers. Traders in individual stocks are the real market-makers. As long as there is a Wall Street firms, there will b...
by Lobster
Thu Jun 01, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Drowning in debt
Replies: 52
Views: 5660

Re: Drowning in debt

For almost all of my adult life, I've heeded that advice and it has taken me a long ways. No student loans, no car loans, no revolving credit card debt. Good work! The only exception that I made was for "good" debt, that is housing related debt. But apparently, I've made a series of decisions that ...
by Lobster
Thu Jun 01, 2017 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Nephews play football - don't want to encourage this
Replies: 45
Views: 3886

Re: Nephews play football - don't want to encourage this

Yes, I have talked to their parents about it and made my position clear. They admit they thought long and hard about it before they allowed them to play. Since they are going to play anyway, should I break down and buy their raffle tickets? The cost is insignificant. But deep down, I think it sends...
by Lobster
Sun May 28, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mathematically-rigorous, yet comprehensive (assuming little prior investing knowledge), books?
Replies: 28
Views: 1863

Re: Mathematically-rigorous, yet comprehensive (assuming little prior investing knowledge), books?

Are there any other mathematically-rigorous, comprehensive investing books, in general, that you would recommend? Burton Malkiel's Random Walk Down Wallstreet is a classic and more math-intensive than many recommended books. It's not as rigorous as the text books above, but more involved than books...