Search found 159 matches

by Lauretta
Sun Sep 17, 2017 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article--The reason Jack Bogle doesn’t fly first class says everything about his investing legacy
Replies: 51
Views: 3682

Re: Article--The reason Jack Bogle doesn’t fly first class says everything about his investing legacy

Why all the talk of happiness? That term is incredibly value and useless in most discourses. Too hard to define. Sorry, I don't understand: what do you mean by That term is incredibly value ? I personally have spent a lot of time trying to understand what happiness is, so I have a reasonably clear ...
by Lauretta
Sun Sep 17, 2017 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 3644

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

GibsonL6s wrote:
Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:18 pm
I guess my snarky response would be isn't that what you are paid 2 and 20 to know?
haha :D good answer.
by Lauretta
Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article--The reason Jack Bogle doesn’t fly first class says everything about his investing legacy
Replies: 51
Views: 3682

Re: Article--The reason Jack Bogle doesn’t fly first class says everything about his investing legacy

This reminds me of a story I read: when Garcia Marquez's grandfather who was quite wealthy was asked why he travelled 2nd class, he answered: 'because the 3rd class doesn't exist'... ;-) More seriously I agree with what has been said above - happiness is really unrelated to this kind of expenses IMO...
by Lauretta
Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mass psychology and market crashes in Shiller and Marks articles
Replies: 6
Views: 760

Re: Mass psychology and market crashes in Shiller and Marks articles

For instance the momentum following cult presently driving the FAANGs to questionable levels. Buying such stocks for no other reason other than they are going up. Do we really want to load up on such stocks unduly? Good point, that's why I wrote this: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?...
by Lauretta
Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mass psychology and market crashes in Shiller and Marks articles
Replies: 6
Views: 760

Re: Mass psychology and market crashes in Shiller and Marks articles

From the Howard Marks' Memo: One of my clients, the chief investment officer of a pension fund told me the treasurer had proposed dumping all active managers and putting the whole fund into index funds and ETFs. My response was simple: ask him how much of the fund he's comfortable having in assets ...
by Lauretta
Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: adapt portfolios to european investor
Replies: 54
Views: 2484

Re: adapt portfolios to european investor

Croatia has nice tax regime. There is no dividend tax for accumulating ETF, and best part is with capital gain tax(CGT). CGT is 12%, but only if you hold shares less than two years. If you hold shears more than two years then you are free. There is no CGT in Croatia for sharea that you hold more th...
by Lauretta
Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "36 Obvious Investment Truths"
Replies: 18
Views: 2558

Re: "36 Obvious Investment Truths"

2. If you want to earn higher returns you’re going to have to take more risk. False - "The greater the potential for reward in the value portfolio, the less risk there is." Buffett Interesting point! I raised it here https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=224712 I think that Ben expr...
by Lauretta
Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: adapt portfolios to european investor
Replies: 54
Views: 2484

Re: adapt portfolios to european investor

Croatia has nice tax regime. There is no dividend tax for accumulating ETF, and best part is with capital gain tax(CGT). CGT is 12%, but only if you hold shares less than two years. If you hold shears more than two years then you are free. There is no CGT in Croatia for sharea that you hold more th...
by Lauretta
Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: adapt portfolios to european investor
Replies: 54
Views: 2484

Re: adapt portfolios to european investor

In Germany you need to pay dividend tax for accumulation ETF. ETF reinvest dividend but you need to know amount of dividend that is reinvested, report that amount and pay dividend tax on that ammount. I red that from 2018 ETF will declare dividend to German goverment so dividend tax for accumulatio...
by Lauretta
Sat Sep 16, 2017 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: adapt portfolios to european investor
Replies: 54
Views: 2484

Re: adapt portfolios to european investor

In Germany you need to pay dividend tax for accumulation ETF. ETF reinvest dividend but you need to know amount of dividend that is reinvested, report that amount and pay dividend tax on that ammount. I red that from 2018 ETF will declare dividend to German goverment so dividend tax for accumulatio...
by Lauretta
Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 3644

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

This strategy has a small contrarian element to it which leads to saving a bit less when the market is up (and expensive), and a bit more when the market is down (and cheap) without having to guess anything about it. Thanks for sharing. It seems to me that your approach is still based on the expect...
by Lauretta
Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 3644

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

This strategy has a small contrarian element to it which leads to saving a bit less when the market is up (and expensive), and a bit more when the market is down (and cheap) without having to guess anything about it. Thanks for sharing. It seems to me that your approach is still based on the expect...
by Lauretta
Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: adapt portfolios to european investor
Replies: 54
Views: 2484

Re: adapt portfolios to european investor

imperia wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:50 pm

In Germany you need to pay divident tax on accumulation ETF.
Are you sure for France?
sorry I don't understand your question. If the ETF does not pay dividends what is the tax on? Do you mean the coupons are taxes before being reinvested?
by Lauretta
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: adapt portfolios to european investor
Replies: 54
Views: 2484

Re: adapt portfolios to european investor

EMG - Lyxor EuroMTS All-Maturity Investment Grade (DR) UCITS ETF EUR. This is France domicile ETF, try to find Ireland or Luxembrough domicile ETF, becouse of dividend tax. I once considered this ETF too, and if I remember correctly it does not pay dividends, it's Accumulating. Yes, that's correct....
by Lauretta
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: adapt portfolios to european investor
Replies: 54
Views: 2484

Re: adapt portfolios to european investor

imperia wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:30 pm

EMG - Lyxor EuroMTS All-Maturity Investment Grade (DR) UCITS ETF EUR.
This is France domicile ETF, try to find Ireland or Luxembrough domicile ETF, becouse of dividend tax.
I once considered this ETF too, and if I remember correctly it does not pay dividends, it's Accumulating.
by Lauretta
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mass psychology and market crashes in Shiller and Marks articles
Replies: 6
Views: 760

Mass psychology and market crashes in Shiller and Marks articles

In the piece below, Prof. Shiller argues that in the period preceding a crash (like in 1929 or 2000) investors are nervous as they have the concern that other investors might suddenly sell their holdings and get out of the stock market. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/15/business/stock-market-mass-p...
by Lauretta
Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE over 30
Replies: 17
Views: 1307

Re: Shiller PE over 30

I'd feel better about something more systematic like adjusting for sector balances. I know this work on sectors. http://www.fortunefinancialadvisors.com/blog/the-correct-way-to-frame-relative-valuations BTW I personally underweigh the US because of the high valuations of the stock market as a whole...
by Lauretta
Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE over 30
Replies: 17
Views: 1307

Re: Shiller PE over 30

topper1296 wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:13 am
I could prob Google it, but what is the PE ex FANG stocks that have a huge weighting in the S&P?
good point, see this:
https://www.blackrock.com/investing/lit ... t-2017.pdf
by Lauretta
Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 3644

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

As I mentioned before, if new, you probably want to invest pretty passively. But you should a least consider a conservative allocation to begin with, and never believe that buy-and-hold somehow magically protects you from permanent loss (as some do): https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f...
by Lauretta
Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 3644

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

Lastly, I have a slight value tilt. I am considering moving from a value tilt to a "Low Beta" factor tilt. I scoff at "dividend stocks instead of bonds" because I know of the dangers in that line of thinking. "Low Beta" might be the answer - lower but more consistent return than the average stock, ...
by Lauretta
Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 3644

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

In short, many ways for the market to remain flat or fall, few ways for the market to go up. This makes sense to me, though there's probably more potential in Europe and EM. You mentioned above that you also agree with: 6. Put more into special niches and special investment managers. Are there any ...
by Lauretta
Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 3644

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

This "low rate" market has been really generous to me the last 10 months. I'll stick with #2. I'm too dumb to understand more complicated schemes, too lazy to earn a PhD, and really don't believe in benevolent market sages. Good luck to all. Tycoon Well I have a PhD but I still haven't got a clue a...
by Lauretta
Sat Sep 16, 2017 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 81
Views: 5463

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Over the next few months we will see a US based bitcoin ETF, approval of options trading with CBOE, and yes..much more Bitcoin volatility. I generally see Bitcoin hitting 6K before end of 2017. 10K before end of year 2018. It may have another downturn as low as $2800-$2600 if this current bounce do...
by Lauretta
Sat Sep 16, 2017 4:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 3644

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

In his latest memo, Howard Marks lists 6 options open to investors, considering today's high valuations and low yields: 1. Invest as you always have and expect your historic returns. 2. invest as you always have and settle for today’s low returns. 3. Reduce risk to prepare for a correction and acce...
by Lauretta
Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 3644

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

MJW wrote:
Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:21 pm
I guess it's #2, but why isn't there an option to save more?
Good point, but I guess it's a corollary of 2. What do you think of 3. in the sense of decreasing your equity exposure to give you more dry powder if/when a correction comes?
by Lauretta
Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 3644

Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

In his latest memo, Howard Marks lists 6 options open to investors, considering today's high valuations and low yields: 1. Invest as you always have and expect your historic returns. 2. invest as you always have and settle for today’s low returns. 3. Reduce risk to prepare for a correction and accep...
by Lauretta
Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Your Currency Risk When Investing Abroad ?
Replies: 17
Views: 988

Re: Hedge Your Currency Risk When Investing Abroad ?

-However, with a virtually no correlation between currency risk and market risk, the risks should add in quadrature, so if market risk was about 18% SD and currency risk was 9%, then total risk would be sqrt(18^2 + 9^2) = 20.1% I am no expert at all in this, but the paper below from AQR has in the ...
by Lauretta
Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Your Currency Risk When Investing Abroad ?
Replies: 17
Views: 988

Re: Hedge Your Currency Risk When Investing Abroad ?

I really don't think there is a simple answer nor any consensus on this. Some quants have made the case for at least partially hedging your exposure. https://www.aqr.com/library/aqr-publications/risk-without-reward-the-case-for-strategic-fx-hedging Many disagree. People at Wisdom Tree do strategic h...
by Lauretta
Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?
Replies: 22
Views: 1305

Re: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?

Sorry, one question if I may. I understand your explanations of the negative correlation (above 5%), but what would be the reasons for the positive correlation below that threshold? Rising interest rates often indicate the economy is getting stronger, leading to increased demand for loans, increasi...
by Lauretta
Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?
Replies: 22
Views: 1305

Re: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?

There might be several explanations for this historical 5% threshold effect (e.g., bonds become more attractive investments than stocks, the cost of capital exceeds the sustainable growth rate of the economy, etc.) — but who knows whether this relationship will still hold in the future, with rates ...
by Lauretta
Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?
Replies: 22
Views: 1305

Re: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?

So I'm not sure how to think about the relationship between interest rates and stocks. Several studies of the historical relationship between interest rate changes and stock prices show a “threshold effect” (chart below). When rates are below about 5%, rising rates are correlated with rising stock ...
by Lauretta
Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?
Replies: 22
Views: 1305

Re: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?

Growth stocks don't look as good. See W. Berstein's "Of Mines, Forests, and Impatience". http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/401/fisher.htm Thanks! :happy It looks very interesting and intelligently written. I came across this sentence though: 'However, money rates of interest are never negative.' ...
by Lauretta
Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?
Replies: 22
Views: 1305

Re: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?

Answer depends on inflation rate as well. If savings accounts were paying 5% today with inflation as it is, then lots of $$ would exit stocks and bring prices down. But that's not how it works. Inflation tends to increase along with interest rates... thanks. so this means that if rates increase wit...
by Lauretta
Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?
Replies: 22
Views: 1305

Re: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?

Growth stocks don't look as good. See W. Berstein's "Of Mines, Forests, and Impatience". http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/401/fisher.htm Thanks! :happy It looks very interesting and intelligently written. I came across this sentence though: 'However, money rates of interest are never negative.' ...
by Lauretta
Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?
Replies: 22
Views: 1305

Re: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?

Growth stocks don't look as good. See W. Berstein's "Of Mines, Forests, and Impatience". http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/401/fisher.htm Thanks! :happy It looks very interesting and intelligently written. I came across this sentence though: 'However, money rates of interest are never negative.' ...
by Lauretta
Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?
Replies: 22
Views: 1305

Re: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?

Small rate increases don't seem to negatively impact stock prices much. We've had a few lately. But if rate increases continue, then bonds start looking increasingly attractive for new money. And it costs companies more to borrow. So this will tend to depress stock prices... thanks :happy so it see...
by Lauretta
Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?
Replies: 22
Views: 1305

Re: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?

FIREchief wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:07 am
Please specify real interest rates or nominal interest rates.
I'd say I'm interested in the effect of both, though I was thinking nominal when I wrote the above.
by Lauretta
Thu Sep 14, 2017 4:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?
Replies: 22
Views: 1305

Re: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?

Small rate increases don't seem to negatively impact stock prices much. We've had a few lately. But if rate increases continue, then bonds start looking increasingly attractive for new money. And it costs companies more to borrow. So this will tend to depress stock prices... thanks :happy so it see...
by Lauretta
Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?
Replies: 22
Views: 1305

What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?

I hear people in the investment industry saying that the stock market is not overvalued, considering the current level of interest rates . This would seem to imply that if/(when) rates go up, stock prices should go down accordingly. I also recall reading a piece by Buffett in which he compares inter...
by Lauretta
Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing using Gold-Lumber indicator
Replies: 24
Views: 1997

Re: Market timing using Gold-Lumber indicator

Third world citizens often don't have good access to investments, so they buy gold. In India gold is a primary investment for its citizens, and it is a big driver or world wide demand. Also, at times China's central banks buys big shares. These things seem to me to be the opposite indicators of fea...
by Lauretta
Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing using Gold-Lumber indicator
Replies: 24
Views: 1997

Re: Market timing using Gold-Lumber indicator

Third world citizens often don't have good access to investments, so they buy gold. In India gold is a primary investment for its citizens, and it is a big driver or world wide demand. Also, at times China's central banks buys big shares. These things seem to me to be the opposite indicators of fea...
by Lauretta
Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: adapt portfolios to european investor
Replies: 54
Views: 2484

Re: adapt portfolios to european investor

I see a point here (as I see in one in the post from Valuethinker). However will this still be true in 10 years? I'd love a "lazy portfolio": I'd avoid to change asset allocation in the future and just rebalance yearly, if necessary. Well, I don't know how feasible that is, since in 10 years time y...
by Lauretta
Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing using Gold-Lumber indicator
Replies: 24
Views: 1997

Re: Market timing using Gold-Lumber indicator

I had briefly seen a paper by Philippe Bouchaud, a very smart French physicist who became a quant, where he used exponential moving averages. Wow, this guy is doing some interesting stuff. Thanks. I'm reading the tail risk premia paper, very rewarding so far. yes and he has done very cool stuff in ...
by Lauretta
Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: adapt portfolios to european investor
Replies: 54
Views: 2484

Re: adapt portfolios to european investor

- buy 20% of your portfolio in a fund or ETF which tracks Investment Grade government bonds. If the EUR one is unappetizing one can buy a USD one-- the additional volatility for an EUR investor is probably not too important, long term. You could split this 10% short term bond fund, 10% bond fund, b...
by Lauretta
Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing using Gold-Lumber indicator
Replies: 24
Views: 1997

Re: Market timing using Gold-Lumber indicator

petulant wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:38 am
Thanks for publicizing OP. Now my outsized returns will be reduced by the rush of investors copying the strategy. Ugh.
good joke :thumbsup
by Lauretta
Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing using Gold-Lumber indicator
Replies: 24
Views: 1997

Re: Market timing using Gold-Lumber indicator

compared to say momentum or moving averages rules which I was told can't really be applied to small caps because they're too volatile By small caps do you mean small caps as an asset class or individual stocks? If it's the former, I don't see how momentum or MA won't work. If it's the latter, adjus...
by Lauretta
Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 ex-FAANGs
Replies: 26
Views: 1539

Re: S&P500 ex-FAANGs

FWIW it's not exact and the expense ratio makes this unattractive, but for US investors there is a ProShares S&P 500 Ex-Technology ETF (SPXT). You could of course own each of the other sectors individually in individual sector ETFs, which are larger/cheaper/traded more, then maybe add in some other...
by Lauretta
Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 ex-FAANGs
Replies: 26
Views: 1539

Re: S&P500 ex-FAANGs

you have to understand why it's PE is low. yes of course, though if its PE (or other value indicators) is low statistically it has more chance to outperform according to e.g. the French Fama work, and vice-versa Actually, the Fama-French work wasn't about trying to predict future returns, it was ab...
by Lauretta
Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 ex-FAANGs
Replies: 26
Views: 1539

Re: S&P500 ex-FAANGs

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:52 am
you have to understand why it's PE is low.
yes of course, though if its PE (or other value indicators) is low statistically it has more chance to outperform according to e.g. the French Fama work, and vice-versa
by Lauretta
Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 ex-FAANGs
Replies: 26
Views: 1539

Re: S&P500 ex-FAANGs

I've had this (possibly crazy) idea after reading a memo by Howard Marks and some other paper showing that the P/E ratio of the US is actually not that different from that of Europe once you take the FAANGs out... Has anyone thought of investing in US stocks but avoiding FAANGs? How would you achie...