Search found 6678 matches

by Kevin M
Fri Feb 12, 2016 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns
Replies: 43
Views: 1572

Re: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns

Finally got around to crunching some numbers. The chart below compares sqrt(12) times SD of monthly returns to directly calculated SD of annual returns for the FF Mkt factor (Mkt - RF + RF; i.e., total US stock market) for 1927 (first full year of data) through 2013 (last time I loaded the factors i...
by Kevin M
Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large amount of CDs maturing....what to do?
Replies: 141
Views: 12236

Re: Large amount of CDs maturing....what to do?

I think I'm in for the Andrew's 7 year 3% IRA CD too. My PenFed CD doesn't expire until the end of this month though, so fingers crossed! I wonder if I can join and start the transfer before my current CD actually matures? Yes, you can. Some IRA transfer forms let you specify "at maturity"...
by Kevin M
Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns
Replies: 43
Views: 1572

Re: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns

My objective was simply to get a representation of the past volatility of my portfolio; it was not my intention, in any way, to project this into the future. It's the uncertainty of future returns that is of most concern to investors--or it should be. So it is useful for people to understand how mu...
by Kevin M
Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns
Replies: 43
Views: 1572

Re: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns

There's good statistical reason for doing this. I read your words, but I don't see any statistical justification--just examples. Can you link to a reference that supports it with some statistical theory? I may not be able to understand it, but I'd like to take a look at any reference you can find. ...
by Kevin M
Tue Feb 09, 2016 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns
Replies: 43
Views: 1572

Re: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns

Why don't you just calculate the SD of the annual returns directly? From the monthly returns you can compute the annual returns, and then just apply the STDEV function to the annual returns. I don't see how a formula can accurately calculate SD of annual returns from monthly returns unless it basic...
by Kevin M
Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns
Replies: 43
Views: 1572

Re: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns

Edited: OK. After looking at the Morningstar formula for a while and trying to make sense of it, I'm getting to the point where I have to admit that I don't understand what an annualized standard deviation really represents. Whether you use the "multiply by sqrt(12)" formula or the refine...
by Kevin M
Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalance into bonds during a falling market?
Replies: 8
Views: 676

Re: Rebalance into bonds during a falling market?

So in this case I would rebalance my total equities to 68%. But since I was so far off my target I decided a while ago rebalance in smaller bits (appr. 1% a month). That would get me to the top of my target range in 5 or 6 months. So if your plan was to rebalance about 1% (1 percentage point?) per ...
by Kevin M
Mon Feb 08, 2016 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large amount of CDs maturing....what to do?
Replies: 141
Views: 12236

Re: Large amount of CDs maturing....what to do?

The Penfed 15 month CD that people are touting here yields 1.51% at maturity. The Pioneer Valley FCU 57 month CD (6 mo EWP) would yield 1.58% if withdrawn after 15 months, and that yield would increase with every additional month held. So why would anybody choose the PF 15 mo over the PV 57 mo? PV ...
by Kevin M
Sun Feb 07, 2016 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns
Replies: 43
Views: 1572

Re: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns

For a set of monthly returns, the average and standard deviation of the monthly returns would be the appropriate statistical values to characterize the distribution of monthly returns. For a set of annual returns, the average and standard deviation of the annual returns are the appropriate statistic...
by Kevin M
Sun Feb 07, 2016 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns
Replies: 43
Views: 1572

Re: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns

I don't see how a formula can accurately calculate SD of annual returns from monthly returns unless it basically does so by first deriving the annual returns. I didn't try to understand the entire derivation in detail, but the Morningstar paper basically includes the annual returns in the derivatio...
by Kevin M
Sun Feb 07, 2016 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns
Replies: 43
Views: 1572

Re: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns

Why don't you just calculate the SD of the annual returns directly? From the monthly returns you can compute the annual returns, and then just apply the STDEV function to the annual returns. I don't see how a formula can accurately calculate SD of annual returns from monthly returns unless it basica...
by Kevin M
Sun Feb 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Could be in Roth IRA phase out this year. Safer just to do back door?
Replies: 7
Views: 312

Re: Could be in Roth IRA phase out this year. Safer just to do back door?

You should learn about IRA recharacterizations. If you make direct Roth contributions, and then find yourself in the phaseout zone, you can do a partial recharacterization from the Roth to a traditional IRA (tIRA), recharacterizing just enough so that your Roth contribution is under the limit that a...
by Kevin M
Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Enhancing Yield with adjustments to the Total Bond Index
Replies: 21
Views: 1104

Re: Enhancing Yield with adjustments to the Total Bond Index

They are just putting a spin on increasing yield by increasing risk. A better solution available to retail investors with assets in IRAs (or even taxable accounts) is to increase yield without increasing risk by using federally-insured deposit account products (savings accounts, CDs) instead of the ...
by Kevin M
Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Specific ID with Tax Loss
Replies: 4
Views: 228

Re: Specific ID with Tax Loss

If selling all shares, it won't make any difference in the income tax you pay. Same tax whether avgcost, SpecId, or FIFO. SpecId only comes into play when selecting specific tax lots to sell. If currently set to average cost at Vanguard, it takes a day to switch to specific ID, so in this case I wou...
by Kevin M
Sat Feb 06, 2016 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mango prepaid card - 4.8% (effective) APY
Replies: 438
Views: 259873

Re: Mango prepaid card - 4.8% (effective) APY

I received my 1099-INT for the 'old' Mango MasterCard today via snail mail. It was from Rev Worldwide. To my surprise, they did not count the $20 bonus from when I setup direct deposit - just my normal interest. I would think the $20 bonus should be counted as income, not interest. The 1099-INT is ...
by Kevin M
Sat Feb 06, 2016 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to behave on a RGD (Really Good Day)?
Replies: 17
Views: 1772

Re: How to behave on a RGD (Really Good Day)?

I'm pretty sure I remember Bill Bernstein writing that if you find yourself rebalancing more than once every year or two, that your rebalancing band is too narrow. I seem to recall him recommending that perhaps one should not rebalance more than every four years. I may have the exact number of years...
by Kevin M
Sat Feb 06, 2016 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great
Replies: 52
Views: 5447

Re: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great

Good replies so far that have pointed out some of the important considerations not mentioned in the article, such as tax-loss harvesting and basis step-up at death. Also worth pointing out that the article mis-characterizes the classical asset location strategy as stocks (or more generally, more tax...
by Kevin M
Fri Feb 05, 2016 7:46 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Forum software upgrade bug reports and change requests
Replies: 250
Views: 30031

Re: Forum software upgrade bug reports and change requests

Quick question/suggestion...is there any way to include a "thanks" or "thumbs up" type of button in the future (similar to the "like" button on Facebook)? It would be nice to have something like this to show an appreciation or thanks to someone's post. :thumbsup I know...
by Kevin M
Fri Feb 05, 2016 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large amount of CDs maturing....what to do?
Replies: 141
Views: 12236

Re: Large amount of CDs maturing....what to do?

Was merely giving Ally as an example, not necessarily recommending it. Gotcha. If a bank or credit union wants to sweeten the deal by allowing me to raise the rate at some point, that's great, but I'm not going to accept a significantly lower yield for this feature. Similarly, I'm not going to acce...
by Kevin M
Fri Feb 05, 2016 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large amount of CDs maturing....what to do?
Replies: 141
Views: 12236

Re: Large amount of CDs maturing....what to do?

Membership in American Consumer Council would be easy way to open a CD at TFCU. I already belong to American Consumer Council. I live in NJ. Interesting--I missed that (I also recently joined ACC to join another credit union). Please let us know what the EWP is when you receive your disclosures. Ke...
by Kevin M
Fri Feb 05, 2016 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any investment that lets you get in/out whenever you want, and govt-guarantees you CPI as a return?
Replies: 20
Views: 996

Re: Is there any investment that lets you get in/out whenever you want, and govt-guarantees you CPI as a return?

lose money. Out of curiosity, what do you mean when you say that a floor of zero on real short-term rates would not be rational? Do you mean in the sense that it would not be rational to prohibit the Fed from stimulating the economy by dropping the real short-term rate below zero? Read this, and se...
by Kevin M
Fri Feb 05, 2016 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any investment that lets you get in/out whenever you want, and govt-guarantees you CPI as a return?
Replies: 20
Views: 996

Re: Is there any investment that lets you get in/out whenever you want, and govt-guarantees you CPI as a return?

You didn't specify, but I think you mean get out any time without losing money. Otherwise, just buy shortest maturity TIPS that yields 0% real. Other than I bonds, that's the closest you can come. The investment you want would set a floor of 0% real short term rate, which apparently would not be a r...
by Kevin M
Fri Feb 05, 2016 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large amount of CDs maturing....what to do?
Replies: 141
Views: 12236

Re: Large amount of CDs maturing....what to do?

Haven't read all the replies so don't know if it's been mentioned, but Ally Bank for one has "raise your rate" CD's. The starting rate may be lower than otherwise for the term of the CD, but there is the opportunity to raise the rate once (or twice depending on the term). Just one way to ...
by Kevin M
Fri Feb 05, 2016 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large amount of CDs maturing....what to do?
Replies: 141
Views: 12236

Re: Large amount of CDs maturing....what to do?

A good 3-year CD (2.5%) is now being offered at the following at Transportation FCU: https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/2016/02/transportation-fcu-offers-limitedtime-toprate-3year-cd.html With the above newly available 3-year CD, I am wondering if it is better to go with the above 3-year CD or 5-...
by Kevin M
Fri Feb 05, 2016 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take the Verb Tense Pledge!
Replies: 69
Views: 3794

Re: Take the Verb Tense Pledge!

I'm trying to think of an example where using the present tense refers to past data, and yet it perhaps could be argued that it is not misleading if you pay careful attention to what is being said. I think I recall something like this being used to counter a criticism I made about using present tens...
by Kevin M
Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Cost Basis for Vanguard REIT Shares
Replies: 5
Views: 247

Re: Help with Cost Basis for Vanguard REIT Shares

Here's a link to a page on Tax Information for Vanguard funds: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/taxcenter/tax-information-vanguardfunds On that page, you will find links to prior data as well. Unfortunately, the text "Vanguard REIT Index Fund distributions" on that page is not a ...
by Kevin M
Fri Feb 05, 2016 2:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Cost Basis for Vanguard REIT Shares
Replies: 5
Views: 247

Re: Help with Cost Basis for Vanguard REIT Shares

Is this a tax question or a question about calculating returns?
by Kevin M
Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH carryover
Replies: 7
Views: 331

Re: TLH carryover

Correct. Many of us are still using up losses incurred in 2008/2009 (or for some, perhaps even before that). I think I have about $100K left to use up.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take the Verb Tense Pledge!
Replies: 69
Views: 3794

Re: Take the Verb Tense Pledge!

This also is a pet peeve of mine, so I'll take the pledge in spirit, as it's already something I try to do. But I won't remember the emoticon thing, although I will gladly acknowledge any deviations in my posts if someone points them out. I've posted this before, but this used to really bug me when ...
by Kevin M
Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help With Stable Value Fund vs. Total Bond Market Index
Replies: 5
Views: 713

Re: Help With Stable Value Fund vs. Total Bond Market Index

Read this: Stable_Value_FAQ.pdf . Note the Lehman is the worst case scenario that has occurred as far as I know, and according to the FAQ, although they lost 1.7% in December 2008, their annual return for 2008 was still +2%. Historically subsequent 5-10 year returns for TBM have frequently been +/-0...
by Kevin M
Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is This An Acceptable Tax Loss Harvest?
Replies: 27
Views: 1643

Re: Is This An Acceptable Tax Loss Harvest?

A problem with the buy/sell in the same account is that you may wind up with a "second choice" postion for a long long time. But you are right that using two or more accounts means you need to have liquidity in both and that may also be a problem. I typically would use a tax advantaged ac...
by Kevin M
Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to behave on a RGD (Really Good Day)?
Replies: 17
Views: 1772

Re: How to behave on a RGD (Really Good Day)?

If/when you hit your rebalancing trigger, you could sell just enough to be covered by your losses. Whether gain is long term or short term, your losses will first be used to offset any gains. Offsetting short-term gains is more valuable than offsetting long-term gains. Or, sell enough so that you st...
by Kevin M
Thu Feb 04, 2016 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is This An Acceptable Tax Loss Harvest?
Replies: 27
Views: 1643

Re: Is This An Acceptable Tax Loss Harvest?

I would not TLH two index funds that follow the same index, but I'd TLH just about any funds or combination of funds short of that. I take the same approach but also usually use a different account JIC. I've done both, but the problem with using different accounts (sell in one and buy in the other)...
by Kevin M
Wed Feb 03, 2016 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help With Stable Value Fund vs. Total Bond Market Index
Replies: 5
Views: 713

Re: Help With Stable Value Fund vs. Total Bond Market Index

Is there some kind of interest rate (or bond index return graph/number?) I should be watching (and then, perhaps, when it starts to reach a particular rate (and stick there?), I should then consider moving from the Stable Value Fund back into the bond index)? The bond-fund number I pay most attenti...
by Kevin M
Wed Feb 03, 2016 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is This An Acceptable Tax Loss Harvest?
Replies: 27
Views: 1643

Re: Is This An Acceptable Tax Loss Harvest?

In general, unless you are audited, the IRS is not going to analyze every trade and try and determine what is substantially similar. I'm sure their software does automatically find wash sales of the same security. If I sold 1000 xyz at a loss in my account on December 10th 2015 and DW bought 1000 x...
by Kevin M
Wed Feb 03, 2016 2:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you cash in a 6 month and 9 month CD early to invest in this market or wait?
Replies: 7
Views: 974

Re: Would you cash in a 6 month and 9 month CD early to invest in this market or wait?

I would not buy CDs with terms this short in the first place. Other than that, not enough context provided.
by Kevin M
Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Muni bond ladder vs fund for large $$$$
Replies: 42
Views: 3137

Re: Muni bond ladder vs fund for large $$$$

At the heart of the issue is the question is can an active bond manager achieve greater returns (yields) after tax/fees than a bond fund manager to justify the 8 bps spread. The ones I am talking with say they can, but ... Vanguard's muni bond mutual funds are actively managed. So any advantages of...
by Kevin M
Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arguments against small-caps
Replies: 10
Views: 1380

Re: Arguments against small-caps

I know they are riskier but how much riskier are they if you invest in a whole basket of them and have 20-30 years to retirement? It depends how you define risk, and how much you think the future will resemble the past. I like the academic definition of investment risk as uncertainty of return over...
by Kevin M
Sun Jan 31, 2016 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Banks or credit unions
Replies: 37
Views: 2267

Re: Banks or credit unions

I use both. I am a member of multiple credit unions because sometimes that's where the best CD or reward checking account (RCA) deals are. But sometimes good CD deals are at banks, so I have accounts at a few of those as well. Ally Bank is my hub bank, as it has everything I want in an online bank, ...
by Kevin M
Sun Jan 31, 2016 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zero Interest Rates on I-Bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 4008

Re: No I Bond Interest Until May 1, 2016?

If you bought this I-Bond within the last 5 years, you automatically forfeit the last three months of interest when you cash it in. So if want to liquidate it, you don't lose any interest if doing so after a 3-month period with 0% interest! About a month ago, I Bonds weren't looking so good to me, ...
by Kevin M
Fri Jan 29, 2016 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large amount of CDs maturing....what to do?
Replies: 141
Views: 12236

Re: Large amount of CDs maturing....what to do?

This is a terrific thread and I've perused much of it this morning. I may have missed it but don't believe there has been any/much discussion of using the secondary market to build a ladder? I thought of that in considering the attractiveness of the Andrews FCU 7 year CD - the terms seem terrific b...
by Kevin M
Fri Jan 29, 2016 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VFIDX up .83% in one day?
Replies: 41
Views: 4055

Re: VFIDX up .83% in one day?

I would expect Vanguard to correct all trades that used the incorrect price. Could get messy for people who were trying to do very precise things. Will be interesting to see reports from people who were affected.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Fri Jan 29, 2016 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VFIDX up .83% in one day?
Replies: 41
Views: 4055

Re: Erroneous Vanguard VFIDX/VFICX NAV calculation

Typically a moderator will merge new similar threads into the prior existing thread, so don't be surprised if you see that happen.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Fri Jan 29, 2016 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VFIDX up .83% in one day?
Replies: 41
Views: 4055

Re: Erroneous Vanguard VFIDX/VFICX NAV calculation

Duplicate post. The price error has been corrected on the Vanguard website.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Thu Jan 28, 2016 9:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Enter one or multiple 1099-INTs from TreasuryDirect?
Replies: 4
Views: 428

Re: Enter one or multiple 1099-INTs from TreasuryDirect?

When a total is supplied on a 1099-INT, I usually just enter that if entering manually. If downloading into tax software, the software usually will enter the individual items, and I leave it as is.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Thu Jan 28, 2016 9:22 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: BOGLEHEADS.COM AND BOGLEHEADS.NET
Replies: 51
Views: 4623

Re: BOGLEHEADS.COM AND BOGLEHEADS.NET

That's great! Thanks for sharing this with us Mel.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Thu Jan 28, 2016 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VFIDX up .83% in one day?
Replies: 41
Views: 4055

Re: VFIDX up .83% in one day?

stlutz wrote:
Looks like a transposition error: 9.67 -> 9.76.


There were multiple funds that had the pricing issue. I think the numeric transposition is coincidence.

Yeah, I agree; just caught my attention.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Thu Jan 28, 2016 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inherited Roth IRA Title
Replies: 2
Views: 185

Re: Inherited Roth IRA Title

On my statement and online, I see <my name> BENEF <Dad's name>. So similar, but without the custodian bit. Inherited something like 8 years ago, and no problems.

Kevin

Go to advanced search