Search found 7147 matches

by Kevin M
Sun Jul 24, 2016 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early retirees, how much did you leave on the table?
Replies: 139
Views: 7897

Re: Early retirees, how much did you leave on the table?

I retired at age 55 in 2007. If I had worked until age 62 I might have increased my portfolio size by $500K - $1M. Since my portfolio is nowhere close to $100M, this would have been a significant increase, but not one that would have meaningfully affected my confidence in my financial security for m...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 24, 2016 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 169
Views: 9427

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

So you are counting on what I'm now calling speculative returns with all of your intermediate-term and long-term Treasuries, as well as with all of your corporate bonds, which is the majority of your fixed-income portfolio! CDs provide a higher safe return than Treasuries or corporate bonds, provid...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 24, 2016 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confusion about Synchrony Bank Early Withdrawal Penalty
Replies: 21
Views: 2107

Re: Confusion about Synchrony Bank Early Withdrawal Penalty

It's getting tough to find a 5-year CD with a competitive rate and an EWP of less than 360/365 days of interest. My local credit union still has 90 days EWP for up to one year CD and 180 days EWP for all other maturities. The CU does not offer CDs outside of its local field of membership. If you ca...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 24, 2016 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 169
Views: 9427

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

I do not want to count on speculative returns with the bulk of my fixed income. Neither do I. Ah, but you do! Our total FI portfolio is modeled on the BarCap Intermediate (1-10) Government/Credit Index which has ~50% Treasuries. The "missing" other 20% Treasuries we have in diversified fu...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 24, 2016 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 169
Views: 9427

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

<snip> most of us didn't lump-sum into our portfolios when Treasuries were at their high yields / low prices shortly before the crash, and then liquidate our portfolios when Treasury yields returned to their pre-crisis levels. <snip>Well I did and I have stated several times that if you don't have ...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 23, 2016 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confusion about Synchrony Bank Early Withdrawal Penalty
Replies: 21
Views: 2107

Re: Confusion about Synchrony Bank Early Withdrawal Penalty

It's getting tough to find a 5-year CD with a competitive rate and an EWP of less than 360/365 days of interest. My local credit union still has 90 days EWP for up to one year CD and 180 days EWP for all other maturities. The CU does not offer CDs outside of its local field of membership. What's th...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 169
Views: 9427

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

So while the long term picture shows not that much difference, the short term picture is dramatically different. <snip> And the data still begs the Treasury/CD question that Kevin and I went around ad nauseum. Thinking about this a little more. Although it's clear that you got a rebalancing bonus i...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 23, 2016 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confusion about Synchrony Bank Early Withdrawal Penalty
Replies: 21
Views: 2107

Re: Confusion about Synchrony Bank Early Withdrawal Penalty

Synchrony Bank increased their EWP from 6 months to 12 months for all CD's over 48 months (effective Jun 13, 2016). One of the reasons I chose their CD was because of a fairly mild EWP. Only applies to CDs purchased on or after the date of the policy change. The EWP still is 180 days of interest fo...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 23, 2016 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3% cd
Replies: 23
Views: 3606

Re: 3% cd

Things are not always as clear cut as they seemed. I went to Synchrony Bank's website and looked up EWP. On June 13, 2016 they changed the penalty on all CD's over 4 years to 365 days interest. I will be doing some calculations to see if the difference is still worth the effort. I looked up my orig...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 23, 2016 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 27475

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Correction. I see that the article linked in previous reply actually does use the term liability-matching portfolio, which they present as one example of a liability-hedging portfolio. Their presentation is quite a bit more complex than the simplified version that Bill discusses in his books. They l...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 23, 2016 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 27475

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Would it be correct to update the wiki article introductory sentence to include LMP? From: The process of matching strategies allows an investor planning for retirement to meet specific financial targets with near certainty. To: The process of matching strategies (also known as a liability matching...
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 22, 2016 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3% cd
Replies: 23
Views: 3606

Re: 3% cd

Thank you Kevin - the limit now does affect one CD I was going to transfer. I will call on Monday to ensure I can transfer the other in time to make the 3% offer. The payback period is very short. Sounds like a plan. Glad we got the IRA vs. POD NCUA insurance thing cleared up. Would be interested i...
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 22, 2016 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 27475

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

...Even with the Swedroe paradigm of ability/willingness/need to take risk, which was my operating risk paradigm before learning about the LMP/RP paradigm (and I think the two paradigms are consistent), having very low ability to take risk due to fully or almost-fully depleted human capital leads t...
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 22, 2016 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 27475

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Should the decisions someone makes about retirement be based on the worst case in the last 90 years? I'd say that for those of us heavily influenced by Bill Bernstein's more recent thinking, the decisions we make about retirement financial planning should be based on even worse than the worst case ...
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 22, 2016 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 27475

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

McClung repeatedly suggested the use of real, guaranteed income to cover all or most of a retiree's necessary expenses. This would be consistent with the LMP/RP paradigm, with the guaranteed income being the LMP, and the McClung portfolio being the RP. This was not my interpretation of the book, no...
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 22, 2016 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3% cd
Replies: 23
Views: 3606

Re: 3% cd

Kevin - your risk/reward calculator (I believe it was yours) was quite the eye opener. Most of my IRA bond funds are sold and are now at Andrews. There was just no comparison. I am calculating converting some of my other CD (and EWP) into 7 year Andrews. By using different POD, I should be able to ...
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 22, 2016 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3% cd
Replies: 23
Views: 3606

Re: 3% cd

Kevin, I'm not sure, but I think I heard of this CD from you. If so, thanks. One thing. You can set up your CD for the full $250k and have the quarterly interest sent to your other bank. I am doing this as a withdrawal from the IRA (I'm retired and have to withdraw some anyway) but there is likely ...
by Kevin M
Thu Jul 21, 2016 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3% cd
Replies: 23
Views: 3606

Re: 3% cd

Just saw that the purchase of my second of these CDs today occurred today. This was from the proceeds of a matured Ally IRA CD; I initiated the IRA transfer a couple of weeks ago, about a week before the CD matured. I have a couple more IRA CDs maturing at Ally next month, so if the AFCU rate holds ...
by Kevin M
Thu Jul 21, 2016 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 27475

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

One could argue that the dynamics in distribution/retirement are different enough from the dynamics in accumulation to justify *some* change in methodology, but I would tend to agree with you, here this is just way too much of a departure. One thing that clearly changes is that human capital decrea...
by Kevin M
Thu Jul 21, 2016 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 169
Views: 9427

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

Kevin, Great informative post above. Your post doesn't say it explicitly, but I'm guessing that the correlations between investment grade corporate and equity and high yield and equity increased at the wrong times. I bet the worst year draw down for high yield was also in a real bad equity year. Ac...
by Kevin M
Thu Jul 21, 2016 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to Put MRD Proceeds
Replies: 9
Views: 727

Re: Where to Put MRD Proceeds

I use short term investment grade bond fund (VFSTX and VFSUX) for mine. Relatively safe and is having better than MM or CD return. Various problems with this. If we look at returns since I started buying direct CDs in late 2010, the 5-year CDs I bought then had higher 5-year return than VFSTX. I bo...
by Kevin M
Thu Jul 21, 2016 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to Put MRD Proceeds
Replies: 9
Views: 727

Re: Where to Put MRD Proceeds

Understood that more detail is almost always better, but just wanted to see if there was a fund that might still minimize risk without being a MM fund (e.g.VFITX). Realize this is slightly contrary to not wanting any risk, but I thought it worth exploring. With funds you always are going to have to...
by Kevin M
Thu Jul 21, 2016 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 169
Views: 9427

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

Nedsaid To address the issue of 20 year vs. intermediate I did a quick check of my files and came up with this data for you Over the 15-year period ending March 26, 2015, Vanguard’s High-Yield fund (VWHEX) returned 6.39 percent, outperforming their Intermediate Investment Grade Corporate Fund (VFIC...
by Kevin M
Thu Jul 21, 2016 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 169
Views: 9427

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

and duration just provides an approximation that defines the relationship between change in price and change in yield. I think it's interesting to note that the bond price when applying duration to a 1% yield change is exactly the same as the bond price calculated when the YTM is changed by 1%, or ...
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 20, 2016 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 169
Views: 9427

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

Surely though if you believe there will be an equity crash within the next 5 years (or want insurance against that) and so hold treasuries at all then it would also be wise to hold treasuries with the rest of the fixed income part of the portfolio too <snip> Sure, if you have such high certainty th...
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 20, 2016 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: cannot wrestle IRA from custodian. Help?
Replies: 33
Views: 2656

Re: cannot wrestle IRA from custodian. Help?

Congrats crit, and good on you for being persistent. I was watching this thread with interest, since I've done many IRA transfers, but have never had a significant problem.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 20, 2016 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 169
Views: 9427

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

Kevin, I just find the price/yield relationship in a Lehman type crisis to be just irrelevant. This statement just baffles me--especially coming from someone who has seemed so sharp on "bond math" in other posts. The price/yield relationship for bonds is invariable--it always applies. You...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 19, 2016 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain interest rate rise and effect on bond price
Replies: 59
Views: 5873

Re: Explain interest rate rise and effect on bond price

Here's another way to get an overview of yield curve changes over time: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=5ND8 (Clicking on the graph will take you to the graph on FRED--if you want to play around with it). Yield curve is flat when the lines are bunched together, as in mid-2005 to mi...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 19, 2016 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain interest rate rise and effect on bond price
Replies: 59
Views: 5873

Re: Explain interest rate rise and effect on bond price

yield curves never shift anywhere remotely close parallel........ short term rates move much much more than long-term rates. Actually, with short-term rates locked down by the Fed, it has been just the opposite in recent years, with longer-term rates moving and short-term rates fixed. Here's a good...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 19, 2016 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 169
Views: 9427

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

So I just accept that I'm not going to get the flight-to-safety bump, but the closer yields get to 0%, the less potential there is for much of that, unless you believe that yields could go well below 0%. With a 5-year Treasury at about 1%, you're looking at less than 5% price appreciation if the yi...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 19, 2016 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 169
Views: 9427

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

This is true, but in order to keep a fixed allocation before and after rebalancing, you will need to rebalance into the bumped-up treasuries. You will probably do something like: treasuries -> stocks CDs -> treasuries (post bump) I don't think you forgot about this, but in my opinion it's worth rep...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 19, 2016 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 169
Views: 9427

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

Unlike you for the rest of the FI portfolio I am willing to take on some credit risk by using investment grade corporate bond funds. These may not be very good during the flight to quality period but seem to recover within a few years. So I'm good with that if I don't need the money in the meanwhil...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 19, 2016 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 169
Views: 9427

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

I don't think its that easy. In the last 2 months of 2008 the price of Vg Intermediate Term Treasury fund rose by 10%. If that type of thing occurred once every 10 years you get a "flight to quality" boost of some 100 bps. That wipes out the current 70 bps advantage of a 5 yr CD over a 5 ...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 19, 2016 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 169
Views: 9427

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

Kevin, the point here is to ignore return on capital. A main point I raised was about return OF capital, not just return ON capital. The point is that with high-yield bonds your capital erodes over time, and even falling interest rates do not save you from this. Looking at the max period available ...
by Kevin M
Mon Jul 18, 2016 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 169
Views: 9427

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

All that being said, any of the Treasury durations probably do better than CDs in similar situations. (See Larry's comment upthread.) No, no, no. This completely misses the point. You earn so much more yield on direct 5-year CDs with good early withdrawal terms than on short-term Treasuries, and at...
by Kevin M
Mon Jul 18, 2016 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maintaining 3-10 yrs expenses in fixed income in retirement rather than set %
Replies: 107
Views: 7422

Re: Maintaining 3-10 yrs expenses in fixed income in retirement rather than set %

The data is below in format: ending balance, SD, Sharpe. Here are some observations. <snip> I expect rebalancing providing a higher return is likely due to the wild swings of the last 15 years, and unusual and while clearly possible is not generally to be expected. I recall that Bill Bernstein's re...
by Kevin M
Mon Jul 18, 2016 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 169
Views: 9427

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

Just wondering if there is some place for other types of bonds considering that any rebalancing will only be done with a portion of bonds. If you look at the portfolio as a whole too then some rebalancing could also be done into corporates or other bonds that fall during stock market crashes - ie f...
by Kevin M
Mon Jul 18, 2016 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 169
Views: 9427

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

The idea that using a high-yield bond fund is similar to an LMP strategy seems absurd to me, since the cash flows are not reliable, as kolea seems to think. I have a small holding of Vanguard's high-yield bond fund, but I don't consider it as part of my really safe assets that I can think of as part...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 17, 2016 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maintaining 3-10 yrs expenses in fixed income in retirement rather than set %
Replies: 107
Views: 7422

Re: Maintaining 3-10 yrs expenses in fixed income in retirement rather than set %

Even when it works out and stocks recover, the benefits of rebalancing are not huge. Over the last 10 years, $10,000 in VBINX (automatically rebalanced) would have grown to $19,996 while staring with 60% VTSMX and 40% VBMFX and just letting it ride, your $10,000 would have grown to $19,569. Sure, i...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 16, 2016 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you find a tenant for rental house?
Replies: 37
Views: 1970

Re: How do you find a tenant for rental house?

Just Craigslist. Last time I rented it out, a few years ago, I had many applicants, had my pick of several well-qualified applicants, and rented it quickly.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 16, 2016 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 263
Views: 27475

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

The thing that annoys me, in all the withdrawal methods that have a "memory of the past" (I'll explain later), is that we end up with a possibility of two retirees of the same age, with the same portfolio and same target allocation, in the same year, which must take different withdrawal/r...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VG Move to Brokerage Accounts and Roth Conversions
Replies: 10
Views: 678

Re: VG Move to Brokerage Accounts and Roth Conversions

Thanks Kevin M and Big John! So it sounds like it isn't just the brokerage vs. non-brokerage, but also the platform where the account resides. I would say that once you're ready, just try it and see what happens. In my case when I started the conversion process online, I got an error message indica...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VG Move to Brokerage Accounts and Roth Conversions
Replies: 10
Views: 678

Re: VG Move to Brokerage Accounts and Roth Conversions

For this same login there also is a trust account on the old platform. I am not upgrading any trust accounts to the new platform until forced to, because it requires additional paperwork--you can't just do it online. There have been no issues with having a mix of accounts on old and new platforms. ...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 16, 2016 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have questions about RMD
Replies: 13
Views: 936

Re: Have questions about RMD

My biggest concern is can the RMD push you over the safe range of 4% withdrawal rate that studies have shown to give best chance of outliving your portfolio? You don't count an RMD as a withdrawal unless you spend it, and you don't need to spend it just because you move the money from an IRA to a t...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 16, 2016 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VG Move to Brokerage Accounts and Roth Conversions
Replies: 10
Views: 678

Re: VG Move to Brokerage Accounts and Roth Conversions

Yes, I have experience with this. I had to upgrade the existing IRA to the new platform to convert into a new Roth IRA (which as you say, must be on the new platform). It was no big deal. For this same login there also is a trust account on the old platform. I am not upgrading any trust accounts to ...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CD Rates Falling, But Yield Premiums Still Attractive
Replies: 7
Views: 1457

Re: CD Rates Falling, But Yield Premiums Still Attractive

<snip> first step is maturing CDs to the right muni bonds Keep in mind that there is an implicit tax on muni bonds in the form of reduced yield. Assuming that muni bonds are priced to be competitive in the 25% tax bracket, if you are in the 15% tax bracket you are earning less than a competitive ri...
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maintaining 3-10 yrs expenses in fixed income in retirement rather than set %
Replies: 107
Views: 7422

Re: Maintaining 3-10 yrs expenses in fixed income in retirement rather than set %

OK, got it--things don't look as bad with annual returns as when you measure from the monthly peak. Unfortunately, you live it month-to-month, or more likely day-to-day, in a situation like that ... unless or course you are a Boglehead with an asset allocation appropriate to your risk tolerance. :h...
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 15, 2016 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maintaining 3-10 yrs expenses in fixed income in retirement rather than set %
Replies: 107
Views: 7422

Re: Maintaining 3-10 yrs expenses in fixed income in retirement rather than set %

One thing to remember is the data in the Matrix book are for calendar years, so the number for measuring return starting in 1929 is from the beginning of the year. That is why the return shows positive for 1929 through 1936. If you used monthly data and measure from the peak in August 1929, is not ...
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 15, 2016 6:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Passwords
Replies: 64
Views: 3661

Re: Passwords

With LastPass, typically I click the icon for the LastPass extension at the top right of my Chrome browser, if necessary enter my LastPass master password (I have it set to log me out after a certain time of inactivity), then start typing the name of the site I want to log into until I see the LastP...

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