Search found 7575 matches

by Kevin M
Fri Dec 02, 2016 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody regretting holding on to your REITS?
Replies: 85
Views: 9552

Re: Anybody regretting holding on to your REITS?

How have REITs performed historically compared to stocks & bonds? Historically they zig when stocks or bonds zag. <snip> Why do they go opposite the stocks and bonds? Is there a scientific explanation for this 'behavior' or is it just money moving from out of stock/bonds into REIT to "foll...
by Kevin M
Fri Dec 02, 2016 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great CD Promo! Andrews FCU 84 mo 3.01%
Replies: 81
Views: 8363

Re: Great CD Promo! Andrews FCU 84 mo 3.01%

<snip> STILL not open. Kind of makes me wonder how easy this CU is going to be to do business with. <snip> But if they can't open a basic account in 60+ hours, am concerned about how quickly / IF I could ever get my money out. <snip> Called yesterday PM to inquire about status, and they told me it ...
by Kevin M
Fri Dec 02, 2016 3:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody regretting holding on to your REITS?
Replies: 85
Views: 9552

Re: Anybody regretting holding on to your REITS?

How have REITs performed historically compared to stocks & bonds? Historically they zig when stocks or bonds zag. However, in times of financial stress all assets may decrease. This was true during the financial crisis. However, REITs performed very well during the technology bust of 2000. Hi, ...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 29, 2016 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great CD Promo! Andrews FCU 84 mo 3.01%
Replies: 81
Views: 8363

Re: Great CD Promo! Andrews FCU 84 mo 3.01%

I just opened the savings account and want to ACH money into that account to fund a CD. But at first glance, it appears I can only ACH in $5,000 per day. Am I reading that right? That seems low. Wow that's really low. My external bank has a similar limit though. Guess it'll have to be a check Switc...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 29, 2016 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Factor investing"
Replies: 221
Views: 17235

Re: Dampening Volatility

Diversification is the only free lunch in investing, right :)? If you can find assets that have a correlation of <1 and similar Sharpe ratios, then you can dampen volatility with similar long-term returns. Bogleheads: Most stocks have a strong correlation with other stocks. Most bonds have a negati...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 28, 2016 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds when Rates Rise?
Replies: 16
Views: 2332

Re: Bond Funds when Rates Rise?

If (a big if) the Fed starts to slowly raise rates quarterly, will the VG Total Bond Fund necessarily continue to decline? No. The federal funds rate (FFR) that you are talking about is the shortest-term rate possible. The shortest-term Treasuries respond to changes in the FFR, but the further you ...
by Kevin M
Sat Nov 26, 2016 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds when Rates Rise?
Replies: 16
Views: 2332

Re: Bond Funds when Rates Rise?

If (a big if) the Fed starts to slowly raise rates quarterly, will the VG Total Bond Fund necessarily continue to decline? No. The federal funds rate (FFR) that you are talking about is the shortest-term rate possible. The shortest-term Treasuries respond to changes in the FFR, but the further you ...
by Kevin M
Sat Nov 26, 2016 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in Taxable
Replies: 150
Views: 10119

Re: Bonds in Taxable

These articles discuss Roths. Would the same advice be given for IRAs? A Roth is an IRA, but you mean a traditional IRA as opposed to a Roth IRA. If you properly tax-adjust your holdings, there is no difference between a traditional IRA and a Roth IRA. Tax-adjusted asset allocation - Bogleheads . A...
by Kevin M
Sat Nov 26, 2016 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 61
Views: 3045

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

For TIPS i'm not so sure. I think the ladder is better. It let's you control deflation risk by only buying newly issued tips at auction or secondary market tips that have low inflation factors (and hence low deflation risk. TIPS have no deflation risk. Maybe a better way to say what grok87 is sayin...
by Kevin M
Sat Nov 26, 2016 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block Tax Software for 2016
Replies: 36
Views: 3316

Re: H&R Block Tax Software for 2016

Found on Slickdeals forum, $22.50 H&R BLOCK 2016 Deluxe + State from newegg.com https://slickdeals.net/f/9441283-50-off-select-h-r-block-tax-software-newegg?sdxt07=0&p=92391147&utm_source=dealalerts&utm_medium=em-i&utm_term=242&utm_content=u6208418&utm_campaign=tu-9999&a...
by Kevin M
Fri Nov 25, 2016 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing bands revisited, a proposal
Replies: 66
Views: 6989

Re: Rebalancing bands revisited, a proposal

With all else equal, your ability to take risk is less when older, .... I would assert that one's ability to take risk is at a minimum plus-or-minus a few years around their retirement day. Others have suggested something similar. Yeah, that makes sense. I was really thinking about during accumulat...
by Kevin M
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing bands revisited, a proposal
Replies: 66
Views: 6989

Re: Rebalancing bands revisited, a proposal

I don't see why that is relevant. The market moves in percentages. Plus it isn't even clear if I would use more dollars or less as my portfolio grew. Would I use more since money is less of an issue? I went through almost all the posts. Excellent information. However, I would say that people should...
by Kevin M
Fri Nov 25, 2016 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokerage Account at VG (terms needed to understand)
Replies: 12
Views: 879

Re: Brokerage Account at VG (terms needed to understand)

Just having a Roth, I couldn't buy into INSY, so I opened up a Brokerage. I've upgraded and explained everything to the nice person at VG. I use the 3 Fund in my Roth, but I like to put a little bit of money into one stock in hopes it will grow and grow. Thanks I think you mean that you upgraded yo...
by Kevin M
Thu Nov 24, 2016 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great CD Promo! Andrews FCU 84 mo 3.01%
Replies: 81
Views: 8363

Re: Great CD Promo! Andrews FCU 84 mo 3.01%

I currently am close to my limit for NCUA protection in my IRA at Andrews. Is the $250k total separate for IRA and non retirement accounts; or is the $250k total for all. I would like to open a Non-IRA CD. $250K for IRAs and $250K separately for non-IRAs. There is funny business allowing additional...
by Kevin M
Thu Nov 24, 2016 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokerage Account at VG (terms needed to understand)
Replies: 12
Views: 879

Re: Brokerage Account at VG (terms needed to understand)

Yes, you still aren't clarifying what the issue is. What exactly is the fund or asset class you want to buy? Unless you have some relatively exotic asset class that you want to own, you should be able to get what you want in the mutual fund version in a Vanguard Roth IRA. Then you don't have to worr...
by Kevin M
Thu Nov 24, 2016 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often do you hit your rebalancing bands?
Replies: 31
Views: 1908

Re: How often do you hit your rebalancing bands?

Typically stocks are going to have to rise or fall at least 20% or so to trigger rebalancing with 5/25 bands. The actual value depends on your stock allocation. +/- 5% Rebalancing Bands . I think I hit upper threshold on stocks a couple of years ago, but I also sell from asset classes that are over ...
by Kevin M
Thu Nov 24, 2016 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock market in record territory vs Re-balancing portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 756

Re: Stock market in record territory vs Re-balancing portfolio

If you just stick to your rebalancing strategy, you don't have to worry about trying to time it. If you don't have a predetermined rebalancing strategy, maybe it's time to nail that down. Speculation about the future of stock prices probably is not a rational component of a rebalancing strategy. Kevin
by Kevin M
Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: single bonds vs bond funds with increasing interest rates
Replies: 13
Views: 1565

Re: single bonds vs bond funds with increasing interest rates

Lets assume today I buy a bond fund with no expense ratio for $10,000 and the current yield is 2%. You have to be careful with terms when it comes to yield. For an individual bond, "current yield" refers to the coupon rate divided by current price. For a Vanguard bond fund, the analog to ...
by Kevin M
Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Glide Paths : Help with Theory
Replies: 31
Views: 1668

Re: Glide Paths : Help with Theory & Analysis

For simplicity, I'd prefer glidepath theory under a fixed set of willingness/need/ability. If I understand that, I can adjust as needed. I haven't read all the papers, but based on fundamentals, I don't think this statement makes sense. Ability, willingness and need (AWN) to take risk are the prima...
by Kevin M
Thu Nov 24, 2016 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Glide Paths : Help with Theory
Replies: 31
Views: 1668

Re: Glide Paths : Help with Theory & Analysis

For simplicity, I'd prefer glidepath theory under a fixed set of willingness/need/ability. If I understand that, I can adjust as needed. I haven't read all the papers, but based on fundamentals, I don't think this statement makes sense. Ability, willingness and need (AWN) to take risk are the prima...
by Kevin M
Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH CA Bond Funds?
Replies: 38
Views: 2100

Re: TLH CA Bond Funds?

The prospectus has the information but it's not always right there in front of you. There is a way to see which funds are accumulating dividends daily. Log on to your vanguard.com site and you'll see an option called "Balances by Date" at the top. You'll then see a column entitled "A...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 22, 2016 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does a bond bear market look like?
Replies: 91
Views: 7893

Re: What does a bond bear market look like?

A risk with TIPS is that the index they use won't have much relationship with your personal inflation rate. But it is a different risk than the other asset classes have. Yes, a good point. But unless you can buy an asset that matches a particular real liability you have, for example a prepaid colle...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 22, 2016 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does a bond bear market look like?
Replies: 91
Views: 7893

Re: What does a bond bear market look like?

Yes, in my charts, years indicate the start of year (or end of day on the preceding December 31st). This way the line between 1966 and 1967 represents the unrolling of year 1966, which seems pretty intuitive to me. Neither way seems more intuitive to me than the other. Note that Portfolio Visualize...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 22, 2016 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does a bond bear market look like?
Replies: 91
Views: 7893

Re: What does a bond bear market look like?

The chart in longinvest's post shows real inflation adjusted returns on a 5 year duration bond portfolio and stock portfolio over the 16 years from 1966 - 1981. Both were negative in real returns over the 16 year time span. Frankly I don't find it very reassuring that in a moderate/severe inflation...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 22, 2016 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 445
Views: 53594

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

Bogleheads, With the expected increase in inflation based on recent headlines, how would this impact the value of a TIPS fund? My guess is it may not as TIPS are based on unexpected inflation. Expected inflation is included in nominal bonds. Why do you keep saying things like this? The specific for...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 22, 2016 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does a bond bear market look like?
Replies: 91
Views: 7893

Re: What does a bond bear market look like?

People are quoting that period as a reason to be worried about rising rates, and a bond bear market. Really? I don't see that. We are simply saying that inflation can be the main culprit in a bond bear market in real terms. So when we talk about bond bear markets, we should talk in real terms, and ...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 22, 2016 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does a bond bear market look like?
Replies: 91
Views: 7893

Re: What does a bond bear market look like?

Earlier I posted the tabular results for real returns of intermediate-term Treasuries (ITT) and US Stocks for 1967-1981 (inclusive). longinvest's chart shows results that don't look quite as bad for bonds. Here's the chart based on the data I shared earlier. http://i.imgur.com/tlHujdY.png As mention...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 21, 2016 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does a bond bear market look like?
Replies: 91
Views: 7893

Re: What does a bond bear market look like?

Do you have a chart that shows bond returns over the 1961-1981 period with inflation taken out so it shows the real negative returns over that period and the loss by year? Same for stocks? Using data from our Simba backtest spreadsheet, here is real growth of $1 table for 15 years 1967-1981 (inclus...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 21, 2016 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.
Replies: 171
Views: 19120

Re: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.

brokered CDs, which have more risk and usually lower yields than direct CDs I do not agree that brokered CDs have more risk (assuming held to maturity).<snip> But I didn't say "when held to maturity", and that's the key. <snip> I do not disagree. While I do not know the "details"...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 21, 2016 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does a bond bear market look like?
Replies: 91
Views: 7893

Re: What does a bond bear market look like?

Referring to a quick 7% drop in the share price of OP's bond fund, OP asked, "Is this what a bear market looks like in bonds?" It was correctly pointed out that you are pretty much guaranteed to recover from this loss over time in a high quality bond fund, and end up better in the long run...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 21, 2016 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.
Replies: 171
Views: 19120

Re: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.

brokered CDs, which have more risk and usually lower yields than direct CDs I do not agree that brokered CDs have more risk (assuming held to maturity). As long as you stay within the FDIC insured limits, I believe the risk (when held to maturity) is the same between brokered CDs and direct purchas...
by Kevin M
Sun Nov 20, 2016 5:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does a bond bear market look like?
Replies: 91
Views: 7893

Re: What does a bond bear market look like?

This is my answer to what a bear market in bonds might look like. https://s22.postimg.org/gz0v6qbup/Captura_de_pantalla_2016_11_19_a_las_7_43_41_PM.png I don't think so. A bear market in bonds looks like the 16 year period 1966-1981, when the cumulative real (inflation adjusted) return for long-ter...
by Kevin M
Sun Nov 20, 2016 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.
Replies: 171
Views: 19120

Re: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.

But the main contributor to this is that bonds will gradually recover from the price drop as they approach face value at maturity.<snip> I wanted to point out that this was an oversimplification, and give examples of when it applies and when the explanation is somewhat different. <snip> I think it'...
by Kevin M
Sat Nov 19, 2016 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.
Replies: 171
Views: 19120

Re: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.

I made a pledge to myself to stop "arguing" with Kevin about the CD/Treasury comparison, BUT ... Kevin's arguments are based on looking at the fixed income portion of the portfolio in isolation. DBR's (and Doc's) arguments take into consideration that the FI is only part of a portfolio th...
by Kevin M
Sat Nov 19, 2016 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.
Replies: 171
Views: 19120

Re: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.

Sometimes it helps to look at longer term Morningstar Total Return Charts for both stock funds and bond funds. That can put earlier declines in either asset class into the proper perspective. Here is a chart showing VTSAX and VBMFX from 1992 through the present. <snip> One problem with looking at b...
by Kevin M
Sat Nov 19, 2016 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.
Replies: 171
Views: 19120

Re: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.

At this time the yield on CDs is just as sucky as the yield on bonds and could stay that way for a very long time. Not at all true if you compare to the proper yardstick (Treasuries of same maturies). As I've posted numerous times, my average CD yield premium over Treasuries of same maturities for ...
by Kevin M
Fri Nov 18, 2016 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: For those who have living trusts...
Replies: 45
Views: 8138

Re: For those who have living trusts...

Now how do you buy I-Bonds for your living trust? Do you just buy it on your name and change re-register in the name of the trust so that you can buy another $10K as an individual? You set up an entity account at Treasury Direct in the name of your trust. You will then have a login/account for you ...
by Kevin M
Thu Nov 17, 2016 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spend Date/ Duration Asset Allocation
Replies: 18
Views: 1282

Re: Spend Date/ Duration Asset Allocation

m Regarding interest rates, although I can't predict their movements, I guess we can say they have a lot more room to go up than down (they're already very low and, theoretically, they can't fall below the cost of storage; they can be negative and people will still have money in the bank as long as...
by Kevin M
Thu Nov 17, 2016 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.
Replies: 171
Views: 19120

Re: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.

Kevin, Which banks or credit unions do you like for Purchasing CD's? No one bank or CU in particular. DepositAccounts.com is a good resource for finding the best CD rates, and sometimes I hear about them first here on the forum. The last two great CD deals I got were from two credit unions that I h...
by Kevin M
Thu Nov 17, 2016 1:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Placement Roth vs Traditional IRA
Replies: 8
Views: 600

Re: Bond Placement Roth vs Traditional IRA

Wouldn't bonds be better placed in the account that is more of a traditional IRA? Because thats the one that will get the biggest tax bill, so putting bonds in it will make the growth less than the growth of the equities in the Roth portions? Let me know if my thinking is correct on that. Thanks. I...
by Kevin M
Thu Nov 17, 2016 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.
Replies: 171
Views: 19120

Re: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.

If one is truly concerned about the issue, it seems that owning short term bonds (ahead of time) is the solution. That is very true. One can even go to the farthest end of that spectrum and own only cash equivalents such as CDs, I bonds, a savings account, or a money market fund. CDs, especially di...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 15, 2016 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.
Replies: 171
Views: 19120

Re: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.

The good news is that these higher interest rates will cause the TBM to pay out more in dividends. I don't know what the lag time is, but I bet "Kevin the Bond Man" does. :happy Challenge accepted. :sharebeer The easiest way to think about it is just using the duration-as-point-of-indiffe...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 15, 2016 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does Testamentary Trust As Beneficiary/POD/TOD Avoid Probate? [FLORIDA]
Replies: 18
Views: 1226

Re: Does Testamentary Trust As Beneficiary/POD/TOD Avoid Probate? [FLORIDA]

once the Living Trust has been set up... 1. ...how cumbersome is it to maintain through the years? like, does it require its own tax filings? dies it need to be registered and re-registered with any institution for the life of the Living Trust? 2. ...what are the annual costs involved in maintainin...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 14, 2016 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.
Replies: 171
Views: 19120

Re: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.

The good news is that these higher interest rates will cause the TBM to pay out more in dividends. I don't know what the lag time is, but I bet "Kevin the Bond Man" does. :happy Challenge accepted. :sharebeer The easiest way to think about it is just using the duration-as-point-of-indiffe...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 14, 2016 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)
Replies: 865
Views: 497915

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

First, it depends on how FRED annualizes the T.Bill returns in the first place (since the 3-month T.Bill returns are reported in annualized forms). If they multiply by four, your point is well taken and you should compound. If not, you should not. FRED is very cagey about this. Second, it the rate ...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 14, 2016 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does Testamentary Trust As Beneficiary/POD/TOD Avoid Probate? [FLORIDA]
Replies: 18
Views: 1226

Re: Does Testamentary Trust As Beneficiary/POD/TOD Avoid Probate? [FLORIDA]

I would use a living trust rather than POD/TOD with minor beneficiaries, and that is indeed what I have done. I started using POD once my children were adults, since I am able to do that and accomplish the same distributions to heirs as in my trust. My real estate and my brokerage accounts still are...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 14, 2016 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can Bank Change CD Terms Mid-Stream?
Replies: 40
Views: 3235

Re: Can Bank Change CD Terms Mid-Stream?

re: brokered CDs - my understanding though is that they have the liquidity (minus the trading spread cost) which direct CDs don't though which could be useful if rates drop and you rebalance. I'm not so sure about that. The buy/sell spread tends to be quite large for brokered CDs, so it wouldn't be...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 14, 2016 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.
Replies: 171
Views: 19120

Re: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.

But it is a bit curious and I too wonder what caused it. I don't recall hearing anything about interest rates going up (the first thing I would think of). By definition, if prices went down rates went up. They are simply two measures of the same thing. On Nov 9 the 5-year Treasury rate increased fr...
by Kevin M
Sun Nov 13, 2016 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 445
Views: 53594

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

Aside from the giant hiccup of 2008/09 <snip>[/img] The big hiccup of 2008/2009 is why I did my analysis starting in 2010. :wink: Maybe 2008/2009 was a time when the BEIRs were not doing a very good job of indicating future inflation expecatations, rather than reflecting the much greater liquidity ...
by Kevin M
Sun Nov 13, 2016 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 445
Views: 53594

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

[...] (ignoring TIPS yield illiquidity premium and unexpected-inflation premium for nominal Treasury yields, which offset each other to some extent). Hey Kevin, thanks for sharing the BEIR graph, this is interesting. I am not sure to understand this statement of yours though. Why wouldn't those two...

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