Search found 1830 matches

by Ketawa
Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Crashplan for Home ending service late 2018
Replies: 92
Views: 6757

Re: Crashplan for Home ending service late 2018

I noticed that ARQ is not running in the background, that means it doesn't continuously backup the data! am I missing something here? The Arq application itself is just a front end to ArqAgent, which is continuously running in the background. ArqAgent should be visible in Task Manager. There is no ...
by Ketawa
Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Crashplan for Home ending service late 2018
Replies: 92
Views: 6757

Re: Crashplan for Home ending service late 2018

I set up regular Backblaze for a trial this weekend but was underwhelmed with the configuration options and default settings, so I'm planning to give Arq a spin. I'm trying Arq and might have it back up to a local hard drive for a while. I like it a lot better than Backblaze, which is just too dumb...
by Ketawa
Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Crashplan for Home ending service late 2018
Replies: 92
Views: 6757

Re: Crashplan for Home ending service late 2018

Sorry, you caught me in the middle of writing my post and it has been clarified. I am still confused. So they charge $50 one time licence fee plus $0.005/GB uploaded plus $0.02 per download (restoring occurrence)? Arq and Backblaze are two separate entities. It's a two party solution: a front end c...
by Ketawa
Wed Aug 02, 2017 9:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Beach condo investing
Replies: 32
Views: 4421

Re: Beach condo investing

I live near the Alabama/Florida coastline. The rental market in the area has been red hot lately. I spoke with a long time condo owner down there the other day and he said that his condo has paid for itself every year for the last decade expect for the year the BP oil spill shut down the coastline....
by Ketawa
Wed Aug 02, 2017 9:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best internet service provider in Washington DC area?
Replies: 5
Views: 565

Re: Best internet service provider in Washington DC area?

I am moving to the DC area soon and signed up for Fios. The deal for 50 Mbps up/50 Mbps down was $40/month the first year, $55/month the second year, $65/month after that (I think, 2+ years wasn't clear). I have an extra $5/month off on top of those rates because I'm in the military. I bought one of...
by Ketawa
Wed Aug 02, 2017 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living Off Dividends
Replies: 285
Views: 21856

Re: Living Off Dividends

Because when you look at how much dividend stocks dropped in the Great Recession, it's obvious that the market didn't think those dividend companies were going to be any better at paying dividends in the future than the market as a whole. Nonsense. We have quotes from the people selling during the ...
by Ketawa
Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help with understanding - pay taxes now or in future
Replies: 59
Views: 3333

Re: Help with understanding - pay taxes now or in future

In my situation, maxing out 401k/403b brings me down from 25% to 15% tax bracket, but at the expense of increasing admin/advisory fees and not a single index fund. I'm trying to decide if a better approach is to simply contribute up to the match, move up to the 25% bracket, and fund Roth and taxabl...
by Ketawa
Wed Aug 02, 2017 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living Off Dividends
Replies: 285
Views: 21856

Re: Living Off Dividends

My guess is that dividend stocks are less volatile than the market itself but the difference in volatility is due to factors and not the dividends themselves. It has been conventional wisdom on Wall Street that dividends are a cushion in bear markets, Jeremy Siegel has this view. The thing is, does...
by Ketawa
Wed Jul 26, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living Off Dividends
Replies: 285
Views: 21856

Re: Living Off Dividends

bob_m10 wrote:Side questions, If you reinvest your dividends is it still a taxable event? I assume this would only apply to a taxable account. thanks
Yes, you will still receive a 1099 from your brokerage or mutual fund company reporting the dividends that were paid for your taxable accounts.
by Ketawa
Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living Off Dividends
Replies: 285
Views: 21856

Re: Living Off Dividends

Hi, I am confused as to the advantage of taking dividends vs reinvesting dividends and selling equities? For example say a person is in retirement and is in the withdrawal phase, why not reinvest the dividends and withdrawal ~4% a year? There is no advantage. Dividends are a forced taxable event. O...
by Ketawa
Mon Jul 24, 2017 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Amazon Prime worth it?
Replies: 135
Views: 10304

Re: Is Amazon Prime worth it?

I have averaged about $5K in spending per year on Amazon over the last 3+ years. It's where I buy basically anything other than what I can find in the grocery store. I often check Jet and Google Shopping, but the selection is usually lacking or Amazon has the best price. The nearest Home Depot, Lowe...
by Ketawa
Mon Jul 24, 2017 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 0 Percent CC - how to take advantage
Replies: 24
Views: 1860

Re: 0 Percent CC - how to take advantage

I appreciate the conservative approach on this site, but I hold a slightly more adventurous position. I had a HELOC that had a promo rate expiring, I was originally planning on paying it off in the next 18 months. I opened new credit cards, leveraged the new credit lines at 0% to pay off the heloc,...
by Ketawa
Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 0 Percent CC - how to take advantage
Replies: 24
Views: 1860

Re: 0 Percent CC - how to take advantage

Hi Ketawa - thanks for the quick response. The min spend is not the issue - will obviously happen. The cash advance for the CC's are limited and don't qualify for the 0 percent offer. Hence the dilemma. My point is there is no dilemma. There's no reason to bother trying to use up the extra 0% limit...
by Ketawa
Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 0 Percent CC - how to take advantage
Replies: 24
Views: 1860

Re: 0 Percent CC - how to take advantage

Meet the minimum spend to get the bonuses on your new cards, then shift your spending back to cards that offer regular cash back or bonus points that you will use, e.g. Citi Double Cash, AMEX Blue Cash Preferred, PenFed Cash Rewards, Chase Freedom, Chase Sapphire Preferred (these are the 5 that I cu...
by Ketawa
Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 15827

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

2008, was also was a good demonstration because TSM as a fund existed. TSM down 56%. Dividends are down 21%. Dividends recover 18 months sooner. The dividend investor does less damage to their portfolio by selling than the TSM investor. Even with your rules about only looking at the latest time per...
by Ketawa
Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 15827

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

Moreover, I'm not sure exactly what we are testing here. Mostly I figured we were testing a dividend strategy. Given a portfolio this non-diversified (I'm not running a mutual fund) and there are only about 4 industries you are going to have all sorts of issues gumming up the works. ... This isn't ...
by Ketawa
Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs buybacks
Replies: 60
Views: 3045

Re: Dividends vs buybacks

Stocks that never pay dividends are worth $0. Can you explain this a bit more. I believe that M$FT didn't pay dividends for decades. The statement has no applicability to the real world. If it was truly impossible for a company to pay a dividend, that could be a problem. In the real world, companie...
by Ketawa
Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to switch from Roth 401k to traditional 401k
Replies: 21
Views: 1446

Re: When to switch from Roth 401k to traditional 401k

What do Bogleheads consider a "substantial pension"? For instance, I will be eligible for an active duty pension beginning at age 53. At age 50, I will begin collecting a pension from a previous employer. Both pensions would equate to approximately $60-70K per year, combined. Would a $60k pension b...
by Ketawa
Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to switch from Roth 401k to traditional 401k
Replies: 21
Views: 1446

Re: When to switch from Roth 401k to traditional 401k

I'm in the 33-35% bracket and my accountant has been telling me to do Roth 401k. I guess this is why. That TFB link with an Excel sheet of Roth vs traditional was very helpful as well. Based on that, I created my own spreadsheet, and it seems clear that for those who max out their 401k, it's better...
by Ketawa
Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to switch from Roth 401k to traditional 401k
Replies: 21
Views: 1446

Re: When to switch from Roth 401k to traditional 401k

I'm in the 33-35% bracket and my accountant has been telling me to do Roth 401k. I guess this is why. That TFB link with an Excel sheet of Roth vs traditional was very helpful as well. Based on that, I created my own spreadsheet, and it seems clear that for those who max out their 401k, it's better...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 22, 2017 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 15827

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

VTSAX is not a "bubble fund". It represents the total stock market, by definition, and includes both growth and value stocks at their appropriate market weight. First off. The choice of the USA is clearly exclusionary. Something like VTWSX or an MSCI World Index would be "stocks". Picking VTSAX is ...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 22, 2017 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 15827

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

Yeah you definitely showed a lot of examples of TSM doing better in a period of high inflation. We are talking about a strategy designed to perform well against inflation risk. You compare it during a period of essentially no inflation to a bubble fund and it underperforms barely. Brilliant argumen...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 22, 2017 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 8646

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

For some reason there are a lot of posts about REIT valuations, current status and market behavior, etc., but the article is about longer-term historical behavior. Current valuations and the market timing angle (much less market efficiency given current interest rates) have little to do with observ...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 22, 2017 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 15827

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

Is there a fund that follows this strategy for those of us who don't want to pick individual stocks? QDF SCHD DLN, DEW, DGRW -- meant to be GARP. OFDIX -- high ER but is the fund described in that long article DJD Just google "quality dividend". The desire for companies that aren't at insane multip...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 22, 2017 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 15827

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

In your example both A and B trade at intrinsic value the entire time. In which case, yes the return is equal. Other tangential topics may deserve consideration, but the main point of this thread was conceded here. Yeah, seriously. If only we knew which companies would pay a 10% dividend in perpetu...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 22, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 15827

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

Because otherwise, all you have done is show that investments with better returns are better. No kidding! I understand exactly what your examples demonstrate, and I am not confused about them. As you have admitted, A made a better investment than B. This is because the investment had a better retur...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 22, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 15827

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

I think you aren't understanding here. When A reinvests his $6730 the assets he is buying cost $50 each and yield $10. That's a 20% returning asset. He gets that 20% regardless of what happens to price. Changes in price after that only allow him to compound faster (further falls) or allow him to se...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 22, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 15827

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

A has a total return of -7.6% (1 - 1.1 * 0.6 * 1.4). B has a total return of -20.1% (1 - 1.1 * 0.55 * 1.32, and obviously the stock price was also 79.86). You are computing the return geometrically. You can either: a) compute arithmetic returns in which case volatility is harmful b) compute geometr...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 22, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 15827

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

Let's let this run for a 20 cycles in the 1::1 ratio. You'll see it is exactly what you arguing for that it doesn't matter: Investor A has 673 shares at $100 each throwing off $6730 in dividends Investor B has 100 shares at $673 each throwing off $6730 in intrinsic value growth Now let the share pr...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 22, 2017 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 15827

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

I kept the example above. This time what we are going to do is have A's intrinsic price stay flat during the bear and B's increase by 10% per. Note this stock is yielding 40% (as per the example of the high dividend above). So this is a very high yield world in the original example. In keeping with...
by Ketawa
Thu Jul 20, 2017 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62
Replies: 203
Views: 32386

Re: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62

I know we are not supposed to speculate on future legislative changes but I cannot help but see an elephant in this thread. 1) About 59 million people collect Social Security benefits each month, and they account for about one in six people in the United States 2) There are 76.4 million baby boomer...
by Ketawa
Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it still worth buying a house in a state with insane property taxes
Replies: 96
Views: 9432

Re: Is it still worth buying a house in a state with insane property taxes

It's not like landlords are providing a charity and paying property taxes for you out of the goodness of their hearts. You are paying property taxes whether you rent or own. When you own the house, at least you get a line item bill that you can take as a tax deduction. Yes but if you get an apartme...
by Ketawa
Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a TSP loan to pay off student loans
Replies: 36
Views: 2443

Re: Considering a TSP loan to pay off student loans

...Buuut... If the amount of the TSP loan exactly replaces the amount being held in the TSP G Fund it is irrelevant what the balanced portfolio of the TSP earns. Technically the "loan" balance is no longer invested, but its overall effect on the TSP account is exactly the same as if it had remained...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 08, 2017 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a TSP loan to pay off student loans
Replies: 36
Views: 2443

Re: Considering a TSP loan to pay off student loans

There are many ways to look at this. Here is one: A TSP "loan" is not really a "loan" but rather a redemption of that amount under the tax favored umbrella. On balance, it seems to me, that a balanced portfolio in the TSP could be "expected" over the long run to earn more than 6.80% (no guarantees)...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 08, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a TSP loan to pay off student loans
Replies: 36
Views: 2443

Re: Considering a TSP loan to pay off student loans

Everyone is entitled to their opinion and in my opinion, your opinion is what is completely incorrect. Take someone has a TSP with $80K in equities and $20K in the G Fund. They take a $20K TSP loan which will be at the exact same interest rate as the G Fund. At the same time they re-balance 100% in...
by Ketawa
Sat Jul 08, 2017 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off loan or not
Replies: 10
Views: 1043

Re: Paying off loan or not

What you didn't account for is that once you pay off the 10 year loan, you could start saving that entire payment. 20 year loan $1050 monthly payment for 20 years -> no debt save $550 for 20 years -> calculate FV 10 year loan $1600 monthly payment for 10 years -> no debt save $1600 for 10 years -> c...
by Ketawa
Fri Jul 07, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a TSP loan to pay off student loans
Replies: 36
Views: 2443

Re: Considering a TSP loan to pay off student loans

Just a few comments on TSP loans. In my opinion, a TSP loan is a useful tool if you max your TSP contributions every year. If you do not max out your contributions every year, then a better alternative would be to lower your TSP contributions temporarily and pay back the student loans ahead of sched...
by Ketawa
Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k
Replies: 58
Views: 3885

Re: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k

I have the ability for either ROTH 401k or Traditional 401k in my work plan. I aim to max it every year, and usually break it down to roughly $15k Traditional, and $3k ROTH ($18k total). My thought is I get the tax savings off the 15k Traditional pre-tax, but I've also got roughly $3k per year grow...
by Ketawa
Mon Jun 12, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Military Blended Retirement System (BRS) Official DoD Comparison Calculator
Replies: 2
Views: 399

Re: Military Blended Retirement System (BRS) Official DoD Comparison Calculator

I don't know my retirement points off the top of my head to get an accurate assessment of the calculator's results, but I'll more then likely be staying with the current retirement system as I intend to stay in for at least 20 years. For service members who won't be staying in for at least 20 years...
by Ketawa
Mon Jun 12, 2017 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Military Blended Retirement System (BRS) Official DoD Comparison Calculator
Replies: 2
Views: 399

Military Blended Retirement System (BRS) Official DoD Comparison Calculator

DoD recently released its official calculator for comparing the new military Blended Retirement System (BRS) to the legacy High-3 system. It's available here: BRS Comparison Calculator . After messing around with it a little, I have a few criticisms. 1. The Overview tab (the default first result scr...
by Ketawa
Mon Jun 12, 2017 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions Regarding VA Mortgage (0 down) Strategy
Replies: 3
Views: 331

Re: Questions Regarding VA Mortgage (0 down) Strategy

1) Wouldn't putting 0 down put me at a disadvantage because my interest rate would be higher? In my (limited) experience, the interest rate for a VA loan does not increase with a lower down payment. Banks don't take on more risk by accepting a lower down payment, since the VA guarantees the loan. H...
by Ketawa
Mon May 29, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit unions are non-profit, how come they do not dominate over banks???
Replies: 73
Views: 6205

Re: Credit unions are non-profit, how come they do not dominate over banks???

Banks and credit unions are offering a product and you are a consumer of that product. Do you also seek out nonprofit providers for everything you consume? Why don't food co-ops dominate over chain grocery stores? Why doesn't Linux dominate over Microsoft or Apple operating systems? If you do the r...
by Ketawa
Mon May 29, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 206
Views: 17121

Re: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk

Doesn't paying off your mortgage reduce sequence of returns risk by lowering your monthly expenses so you can live with lower returns from your investments? The blog post in the OP raised the possibility of keeping a mortgage while still early in investing, not during retirement. Sequence of return...
by Ketawa
Mon May 29, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 206
Views: 17121

Re: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk

If you are married and both work, you likely have around 47k of tax advantaged space every year, 98% of people don't save that much, and those that do, probably don't have much debt anyway. People able to save that much every year probably have the most debt because they can afford more expensive h...
by Ketawa
Mon May 29, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 206
Views: 17121

Re: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk

warowits, << Clearly it's equities or pay down debt. >> Why is that the only way? It could be borrowed at 3.25% and invested in Wellington (65/35) fund and earned 6+% in the process. It does not have to be 100/0 or 0/100. There are multiple options between 0/100 to 100/0. KlangFool I would argue th...
by Ketawa
Mon May 29, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit unions are non-profit, how come they do not dominate over banks???
Replies: 73
Views: 6205

Re: Credit unions are non-profit, how come they do not dominate over banks???

Banks and credit unions are offering a product and you are a consumer of that product. Do you also seek out nonprofit providers for everything you consume?

Why don't food co-ops dominate over chain grocery stores?

Why doesn't Linux dominate over Microsoft or Apple operating systems?
by Ketawa
Mon May 29, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which is better? [Adjust AA yearly or every 6 months]
Replies: 13
Views: 1443

Re: Which is better? [Adjust AA yearly or every 6 months]

If given the option and you have the time, is it better or even advisable to adjust AA in the three fund portfolio once a year or every six months? It doesn't make much of a difference. Do whatever is more convenient for you. It's best to have rebalancing targets built into your investment plan. St...
by Ketawa
Mon May 29, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 206
Views: 17121

Re: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk

Is there advice on how to reduce sequence of return risk for someone who is already early retired and has already paid off the mortgage? This does seem situation specific. Is there some tool that would allow one to look at this for their own particular circumstances? You misread the blog post if yo...
by Ketawa
Fri May 26, 2017 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How dividends become irrelevant?
Replies: 146
Views: 8296

Re: How dividends become irrelevant?

I couldn't help but think that selling $108.11 in shares would incur trading costs, bid/ask spread and commission. So maybe collecting a dividend isn't so bad. $100 was only an example for illustrative purposes, and there are obviously no trading costs, bid/ask spread, or commissions with something...
by Ketawa
Fri May 26, 2017 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How dividends become irrelevant?
Replies: 146
Views: 8296

Re: How dividends become irrelevant?

IMO dividends are among the dumbest investment things in the 21st century. They are an 1817 concept still hurting us in 2017 (yes, I am always in max tax bracket, so every year at tax time I shake my fist at stupid dividends) Remember that qualified dividends, at least in the United States, qualify...