Search found 1890 matches

by Ketawa
Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 401k
Replies: 8
Views: 1406

Re: 2018 401k

The main benefit of Traditional contributions is the ability to deduct income at your top rate now and fill up lower tax brackets in retirement with withdrawals or conversions to Roth. 24% is still a lot higher than 12% or 15%, even if the lower rates expire as in the current law.
by Ketawa
Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Obtaining Exposure to Quality / Profitability Factor
Replies: 57
Views: 6081

Re: Obtaining Exposure to Quality / Profitability Factor

Unless I am missing something on how to use factor regressions on portfolio visualizer Vangaurd small cap value tends to Have positive values for QMJ/RMV. It also tends to have ~0 momentum loadings. Doesn't that make the fund kinda a closet multi factor fund? You get some exposure to size, value an...
by Ketawa
Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 114
Views: 10430

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

I find it fascinating that so many Bogleheads can accept the idea that fixed income investments have different riskiness, but insist that it's impossible for equities and that total market funds are the only correct way to invest. To me, it's obvious that small companies, due to their size, and valu...
by Ketawa
Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TSP Loan For Down Payment
Replies: 3
Views: 400

Re: TSP Loan For Down Payment

Because the TSP loan is paid to yourself, the interest rate does not matter very much. Imagine that the loan rate was 100%, all your TSP balance was in the Roth TSP, and you expect to max out TSP contributions from now until forever. Taking a "loan" with a 100% interest rate would be great! It would...
by Ketawa
Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chained CPI - how does it work?
Replies: 30
Views: 2092

Re: Chained CPI - how does it work?

I think the idea is that CPI is supposed to measure the cost of living that consumers actually experience in aggregate. Let's take a simple example. Let's say iPhones and Android phones both cost $1000. Consumers buy equal numbers of both in the current basket of goods measured by CPI. Let's say iPh...
by Ketawa
Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 878
Views: 48504

Re: Tax Bill Omnibus Thread

In not in any way a tax professional, but there seems to be the thought by some that if one prepays their mortgage payments now for 2018 and even further, say 2019, that they can use that interest they are prepaying to their advantage for itemizing. I just don't believe that is legitimate. I'd cons...
by Ketawa
Thu Dec 21, 2017 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 878
Views: 48504

Re: Tax Bill Omnibus Thread

In not in any way a tax professional, but there seems to be the thought by some that if one prepays their mortgage payments now for 2018 and even further, say 2019, that they can use that interest they are prepaying to their advantage for itemizing. I just don't believe that is legitimate. I'd cons...
by Ketawa
Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 878
Views: 48504

Re: Tax Bill Omnibus Thread

I expect to owe both state and federal taxes upon filing in April 2018 (not worried about penalties). Am I correct in my thought that I should make an estimated tax payment to pre-pay those before the end of the year so they are deductible for 2017? I expect to exceed the $10k SALT limitation going...
by Ketawa
Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the TSP [for current participants]
Replies: 241
Views: 38998

Re: Improving the TSP [for current participants]

Duration risk doesn't even out over the long term. Otherwise, everyone would hold long term bonds.
by Ketawa
Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the TSP [for current participants]
Replies: 241
Views: 38998

Re: Improving the TSP [for current participants]

Currently, asset allocations have to be equal across the Roth and Traditional accounts. This doesn't bother me too much since I use tax-adjusted asset allocation, and don't think that risky assets magically give me better risk-adjusted returns in Roth accounts, a common error on the board. :wink: Th...
by Ketawa
Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: pay down mortgage or invest in taxable
Replies: 73
Views: 6145

Re: pay down mortgage or invest in taxable

6) I think the compound interest from the investments will outperform this mortgage simple interest. I agree. Often lost on here is that your fixed rate should be compared against the nominal cumulative average growth rate - not real. The overall historical numbers are about 9%. The worst 30 year n...
by Ketawa
Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Recast mortgage as part of a pay down strategy
Replies: 60
Views: 2976

Re: Recast mortgage as part of a pay down strategy

The continued prepayments aside. The first payment after the recast is going to have more going to interest than the payment would've had on the paid down version. You have extended the loan backwards from where you were. You had it paid down to a 10 year remaining mortgage. You extended it backwar...
by Ketawa
Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Recast mortgage as part of a pay down strategy
Replies: 60
Views: 2976

Re: Recast mortgage as part of a pay down strategy

True, they'd like to keep the business. But, you're resetting the amortization schedule when you recast to the time left on the loan. Especially if you prepay, they'd like to recast and get you back on the would've been schedule. You don't get credit for the prepayment and time you shaved off the o...
by Ketawa
Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Recast mortgage as part of a pay down strategy
Replies: 60
Views: 2976

Re: Recast mortgage as part of a pay down strategy

It changes the timeline you owe the interest on. I.E... if you prepaid so you only owed 10 more years of interest, but you recast to make it so you have 13 more years of interest to pay... How do you figure you would not have more interest to pay? There are articles and a calculator in this thread ...
by Ketawa
Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Recast mortgage as part of a pay down strategy
Replies: 60
Views: 2976

Re: Recast mortgage as part of a pay down strategy

Just do it. You have already demonstrated that you are committed to paying down the mortgage, so the "forced savings" potential of a higher payment is not really a consideration. The only downside that others in this thread have mentioned seems to be the amount of time it will take you each year. Yo...
by Ketawa
Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Android keyboards
Replies: 5
Views: 455

Re: Android keyboards

I have been using Swype for about 5 years, I think, ever since it was in beta. If I recall correctly, I didn't like the interface of the stock Google keyboard when swiping words. Swype presents the swiped word in yellow along with alternative words/spellings in white all in 1 row with about 5 option...
by Ketawa
Sat Dec 09, 2017 2:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are So Many Companies Announcing Share Buyback?
Replies: 32
Views: 3017

Re: Why Are So Many Companies Announcing Share Buyback?

It's a way of distributing profits to shareholders, logically equivalent to a dividend, without triggering a taxable event. For further reading, see Share repurchase and Modigliani–Miller theorem.
by Ketawa
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - You Can Have Your Momentum Factor and Eat it Too
Replies: 21
Views: 1768

Re: AQR/Asness - You Can Have Your Momentum Factor and Eat it Too

I agree. Primecap's success has been consistent for 33 years so you can rule out luck. Coins don't flip heads consistently for 33 years. The other potential explanation as Ketwawa wrote, "the managers of the fund are onto something that doesn't show up on research." Ketawa is not convinced of that,...
by Ketawa
Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - You Can Have Your Momentum Factor and Eat it Too
Replies: 21
Views: 1768

Re: AQR/Asness - You Can Have Your Momentum Factor and Eat it Too

1+ This is the whole point. Factor analysis alone does not accurately determine future performance. It's that simple. The idea that you can prospectively select positive factor loads in either single factor or multi-factor funds and they will reliably and definitely outperform in the future is quit...
by Ketawa
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Dividends Perceived as Moral; Capital Value Changes as Immoral?
Replies: 55
Views: 3170

Re: Are Dividends Perceived as Moral; Capital Value Changes as Immoral?

Its a dividend and income fund,this is vanguard product summary of VEIPX. This fund is designed to provide investors with an above-average level of current income while offering exposure to the stock market. Since the fund typically invests in companies that are dedicated to consistently paying div...
by Ketawa
Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Union Offering .5% Rate Discount for Purchasing through their TrueCar Powered Site
Replies: 1
Views: 212

Re: Credit Union Offering .5% Rate Discount for Purchasing through their TrueCar Powered Site

Saving 0.5% in interest is only 1.2% of the loan principal if you take the full 60 months to pay off the loan. The difference shrinks if you pay it off more quickly. On a $20K car, for example, that is a savings of $240. I think you could get a better price outside of TrueCar, but that of course com...
by Ketawa
Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are plasma TV's gone forever?
Replies: 36
Views: 4619

Re: Are plasma TV's gone forever?

I own a Samsung plasma TV and really like it. I do not believe any major company still manufactures plasmas. You still see them on Amazon or Ebay at inflated prices. My Samsung plasma sells for 3x what I paid. You had me excited for a minute because I'm getting rid of my 50" Panasonic plasma TV soo...
by Ketawa
Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 5158

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

Consider the problems of Dr. Michael Bury (Christian Bale in the movie) in The Big Short . He struggled to find someone to be the other side of his short (i.e. to write CDS on CDO tranches) and then his own investors tried to pull their money from the fund. You can be right about something, but too...
by Ketawa
Mon Nov 27, 2017 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies
Replies: 112
Views: 8450

Re: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies

Ironically, your prediction of making a couple thousand dollars was spookily accurate had you held on to your .20 BTC until today. Any other prognostications you'd like to share with the group? :happy I lost $91.71. The 2 weeks of dreaming was not worth it. My potential gain at today's prices would...
by Ketawa
Mon Nov 27, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies
Replies: 112
Views: 8450

Re: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies

I guess my plan from 2013 didn't work out. Bitcoin threads are stronger than ever. (I sold my 0.2 bitcoins 1-2 weeks later when the price dropped in half.) I said in this thread : 'The market can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent' (Warren Buffett?) Go back to that Schleifer ...
by Ketawa
Wed Nov 22, 2017 9:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Beware Amazon Price Gouging
Replies: 74
Views: 9421

Re: Beware Amazon Price Gouging

Kleen Kanteen Single Wall Stainless Pint Cups $33.86 (was even higher) were $19.72 Belkin 6 Outlet Power Strip w/ 6 foot cord $17.99 was $9.99 This was surprisingly in less than a week. There's nothing surprising about these prices or the magnitude of the change when you compare them to the past. h...
by Ketawa
Tue Nov 21, 2017 6:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replace TVs with Smart Tvs or not?
Replies: 57
Views: 4526

Re: Replace TVs with Smart Tvs or not?

My only complaint against Smart hubs is when you’re trying to search for the title to stream, it is hard typing letter by letter. I recommend something with a keyboard like a computer, but that is my preference. Smart hub and TV both share this weakness. This is why on a Roku, I think voice search ...
by Ketawa
Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 11449

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

I agree with all of this, except I don't think it's good to blindly use 3.53%. EE bonds should be valued compared to other available investments. What if the US was experiencing high inflation and savings account interest rates were 10%? At the 19 year mark of your EE bonds, your model would have t...
by Ketawa
Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 11449

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

I agree with willthrill. An EE-bond within a portfolio should be valued as what it is presently worth. For an EE-bond prior to maturity, this would be the face value plus the 0.1% interest accrued thus far. The 3.53% rate is simply a mental accounting for what the 20yr holding period returns; not a...
by Ketawa
Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 11449

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

I agree with willthrill. An EE-bond within a portfolio should be valued as what it is presently worth. For an EE-bond prior to maturity, this would be the face value plus the 0.1% interest accrued thus far. The 3.53% rate is simply a mental accounting for what the 20yr holding period returns; not a...
by Ketawa
Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 11449

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

I'm coming to this discussion late, but within a portfolio e.g. for asset allocation purposes like determining stock/bond split, EE bonds should theoretically be valued based on what you would pay for them if they were offered for sale when compared to other investment options, not what the Treasury...
by Ketawa
Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Drive it till it dies. It died.
Replies: 54
Views: 6280

Re: Drive it till it dies. It died.

Why on earth would you buy another Murano given this lack of reliability? Exactly! Come on, people. The OP's experience is anecdotal and doesn't apply to the purchase of another Murano except as one data point in the vast number of Murano owners. You might as well ask why anyone on the entire earth...
by Ketawa
Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Drive it till it dies. It died.
Replies: 54
Views: 6280

Re: Drive it till it dies. It died.

Why on earth would you buy another Murano given this lack of reliability? Exactly! Come on, people. The OP's experience is anecdotal and doesn't apply to the purchase of another Murano except as one data point in the vast number of Murano owners. You might as well ask why anyone on the entire earth...
by Ketawa
Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replace TVs with Smart Tvs or not?
Replies: 57
Views: 4526

Re: Replace TVs with Smart Tvs or not?

Roku has many different options and I checked the website and its BF sales begin on Nov 23. Any particular Roku? With no need for 4K, I would simply buy the new Roku Streaming Stick (model 3800). Another option would be the 2016 Roku Streaming Stick (model 3600) for a small discount. It will probab...
by Ketawa
Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone Tried Soylent?
Replies: 24
Views: 1686

Re: Anyone Tried Soylent?

I regularly have a bottle of the Soylent drink for breakfast in original flavor. It tastes like bland oatmeal to me and is inoffensive. It's healthier than something like a bowl of cereal and more convenient than cooking breakfast for me.
by Ketawa
Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Verizon Wireless - Asking for a lower rate
Replies: 21
Views: 2506

Re: Verizon Wireless - Asking for a lower rate

You can switch to a prepaid plan either with Verizon directly or with a reseller. I have Verizon prepaid and pay $40/month for unlimited talk/text and 3 GB of data with rollover data. You can get a better deal with a reseller/MVNO, but Verizon restricts the bandwidth of its resellers to far lower th...
by Ketawa
Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Personal letters to the sellers of your house can work!!!
Replies: 74
Views: 8525

Re: Personal letters to the sellers of your house can work!!!

I think the trustee picked a horrid selling agent as he only had one open house, and buyer's agents had to take their clients over and open the lock box. This is getting off topic, but isn't this simply how sales work these days? There was another long thread discussing agents recently, and buyers ...
by Ketawa
Sat Nov 11, 2017 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excel XIRR Question
Replies: 6
Views: 680

Re: Excel XIRR Question

https://i.imgur.com/vkPupYP.png OP, I tried to recreate your values, but couldn't. You had two typos with years 2027 and 2007, but fixing those does not give your values for XIRR either. I think you have your signs wrong. An IRR calculation is a discounted cash flow analysis. To get your initial ba...
by Ketawa
Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excel XIRR Question
Replies: 6
Views: 680

Re: Excel XIRR Question

Column 1 had more invested at the beginning of the year than Column 2, and both columns invested the same periodic amounts during the year. Therefore, Column 1 had its overall investment more frontloaded in the year. XIRR calculates the return as if all dollars invested during the year earned a flat...
by Ketawa
Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Auto Insruance Payment
Replies: 29
Views: 1699

Re: Auto Insruance Payment

I have USAA and pay my combined auto, renter's, umbrella, and VPP statement monthly with a credit card. There is no surcharge or discount with other payment options or schedules, so monthly is convenient.
by Ketawa
Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to invest home downpayment which I am not certain when to buy if ever?!
Replies: 62
Views: 3823

Re: Where to invest home downpayment which I am not certain when to buy if ever?!

Regarding the type of account, if you are not maxing tax-advantaged savings (IRA and 401k), then I would increase those contributions. If you do not buy a house, you will be better off having the investments in tax-advantaged. If you do buy a house, you can consider taking out IRA contributions (not...
by Ketawa
Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best strategy for selling cell phone on Ebay?
Replies: 33
Views: 1956

Re: Best strategy for selling cell phone on Ebay?

My thoughts were that eBay gets a lot more potential customers than Swappa or other competitors, so one is more likely to get top dollar in a sale. Also, as a seller, I didn't think I need to worry about being scammed since I can receive payment via Paypal. But so many people here down on eBay has ...
by Ketawa
Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone planning on getting the new Pixel phone?
Replies: 141
Views: 10717

Re: Anyone planning on getting the new Pixel phone?

I took the Sim card out of my old phone, put it in the new phone, and did the online activation from Verizon. It was really simple. You can only do the esim thing on project fi I believe. I think with all the major carriers you will have to use a physical Sim card. If you wouldn't mind, can you sum...
by Ketawa
Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best strategy for selling cell phone on Ebay?
Replies: 33
Views: 1956

Re: Best strategy for selling cell phone on Ebay?

Blueskies123 wrote:
Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:42 am
I have sold two on Gazell. Simple, why hassle with Ebay for $10 more.
I am selling a Pixel XL. Gazelle offers $150, while it goes for $350+ on Swappa. I can buy one on Gazelle for $499. Sure seems like Gazelle would like this business model.
by Ketawa
Fri Nov 03, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What so scary about TSP loans?
Replies: 23
Views: 1917

Re: What so scary about TSP loans?

Investing and contributions are not restricted to the G Funds while you have a loan. You have the same control over the TSP account. Contributions and loan repayments are both invested according to the account owner's contribution allocations. Regarding your suggestion of the OP waiting 6 months un...
by Ketawa
Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What so scary about TSP loans?
Replies: 23
Views: 1917

Re: What so scary about TSP loans?

I don't think anything is scary about them except for the requirement to repay it if you leave federal service. TSP loans are a tool to access funds in tax-advantaged accounts without any tax consequences. I have taken two loans over the last five years. One was a residential loan to reach a 10% dow...
by Ketawa
Thu Nov 02, 2017 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Considering a LG 55" OLED TV
Replies: 44
Views: 4074

Re: Considering a LG 55" OLED TV

I have my eye on the LG 65" OLED TV and am considering a purchase around Black Friday. The price on these recently dropped across the board and I'm hoping it falls again. It will replace a 50" Panasonic plasma from 2009. Not to throw too much rain on the idea, but considering the flogging Google and...
by Ketawa
Sat Oct 28, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone planning on getting the new Pixel phone?
Replies: 141
Views: 10717

Re: Anyone planning on getting the new Pixel phone?

I wasn't even aware of the existence of screen burn-in on phones until the recent round of articles. I checked my Pixel XL, which is about 6 weeks old, and it already has burn-in. I'd never notice it unless I was looking for it. This seems like a non-issue to me. My Pixel 2 XL arrives tomorrow. The...
by Ketawa
Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 66
Views: 9035

Re: Why is QSPIX steadily declining?

Because according to Larry Swedroe, you should divide the expense ratio by two for a long-short fund... or at least for this long-short fund... because... uh, because... uh, because... By the way, according to Morningstar the expense ratio is now up to 1.60%. Which, to be fair, they designate as "a...
by Ketawa
Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone planning on getting the new Pixel phone?
Replies: 141
Views: 10717

Re: Anyone planning on getting the new Pixel phone?

Looks like there are some reports of possible screen burn-in on Pixel 2 XL devices after just a week of use. https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/22/16518298/google-investigating-pixel-2-xl-screen-burn-in I wasn't even aware of the existence of screen burn-in on phones until the recent round of article...