Search found 316 matches

by Johnnie
Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 719
Views: 293446

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

His latest Fine Tuning Tables from 1970 through 2016 show an all-stocks Ultimate that's 50/50 US/international had an average annual compound return of 11.4 percent over that period. An all stocks portfolio that's 70/30 returned an identical 11.4 percent. Wouldn't you select the portfolio with the ...
by Johnnie
Sun Jun 25, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 136
Views: 8162

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

But bonds are for safety/stability, not for making money. That's what stocks are for. So perhaps you're expecting too much from bonds. That being the case, the amount of risk you take is based on your need, ability and willingness to take risk. You may (or may not) have the need and ability, but it...
by Johnnie
Sun Jun 25, 2017 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 719
Views: 293446

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

Sure, you can change these things in any variety of ways, but that would not meet one of the driving investment criteria of "integer investing." The prime postulate of integer investing goes back to a fundamental principle of decision theory that if you have no way to know which of two ch...
by Johnnie
Sun Jun 25, 2017 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 719
Views: 293446

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

Evil "quote" button tricked me into pressing it instead of "edit."
by Johnnie
Sun Jun 25, 2017 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 719
Views: 293446

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

Yes, there are unpredictable factors that will have huge impacts on our outcomes. But throwing one's hands up and saying randomness will be the only real determining factor really does not hold water. If you believe that, then you may as well just put it all in bonds or cash or under you pillow, be...
by Johnnie
Sun Jun 18, 2017 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Financial Advice from Dad (in honor of father's day)
Replies: 79
Views: 4849

Re: Best Financial Advice from Dad (in honor of father's day)

"Do the exact opposite of everything I have ever done related to money."

I never heard that, but thankfully didn't need to - I figured it out on my own, from necessity.

Not all dads are good role models in all areas.
by Johnnie
Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else gotten totally bored with investing?
Replies: 103
Views: 9440

Re: Anyone else gotten totally bored with investing?

OP hasn't retired yet, so is just in the calm before the storm. Start worrying about what your DESIRED income in retirement will be and how you will assemble the cashflow. Will you be a bucketeer in retirement? What will your Roth conversion strategy be? Will you be annuitizing a portion of your as...
by Johnnie
Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Dynamic Retirement Spending Adjustments: Small-But-Permanent Vs Large-But-Temporary" by Derek Tharp at kitces.com
Replies: 4
Views: 663

Re: "Dynamic Retirement Spending Adjustments: Small-But-Permanent Vs Large-But-Temporary" by Derek Tharp at kitces.com

Very thought provoking. A link led me to another on the site that's like the flip side of this: "The Ratcheting Safe Withdrawal Rate – A More Dominant Version Of The 4% Rule?" https://www.kitces.com/blog/the-ratcheting-safe-withdrawal-rate-a-more-dominant-version-of-the-4-rule/ ~~~~~~~~ Bo...
by Johnnie
Sat Jun 10, 2017 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEHR-tolerance versus Loss Aversion--why setting and maintaining your own AA might be a mistake
Replies: 139
Views: 6860

Re: HEHR-tolerance versus Loss Aversion--why setting and maintaining your own AA might be a mistake

Again, there are lots of stories here are about people who failed to rebalance in 2008/2009... Huh, I've missed those. I've only seen the ones about those who really did it. :twisted: To whom I say again, yay you, brave you. Here's what I wanted to add though, on terminology. Someone made the disti...
by Johnnie
Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?
Replies: 103
Views: 6592

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Tesla, are you kidding? It's a Potemkin car company that is but a minor political wind-shift away from total evaporation. An eliminated tax subsidy here, a bad report on safety or battery disposals or cup holders, etc., and someone hand Musk a robe because he has no clothes. Don't believe me? Fine, ...
by Johnnie
Wed Jun 07, 2017 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Sharpe interview and new e-book
Replies: 0
Views: 323

William Sharpe interview and new e-book

Re-posted from the "Can't Trust Advisors" thread. Barry Ritholtz did a podcast with William Sharpe recently, he of the Sharpe Ratio fame, who among other things described his big project in retirement, trying to solve problems and help people in the distribution phase, as his earlier work ...
by Johnnie
Wed Jun 07, 2017 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why You Still Can’t Trust Your Financial Adviser
Replies: 54
Views: 5629

Re: Why You Still Can’t Trust Your Financial Adviser

There is a desperate need for good advice for regular people trying to survive in a post-pension 401(k) world, and it's a total minefield. Timelord said there are lots of flat-fee advisors out there, but I'm not so sure there are, and as with all professional services you usually get what you pay fo...
by Johnnie
Wed Jun 07, 2017 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEHR-tolerance versus Loss Aversion--why setting and maintaining your own AA might be a mistake
Replies: 139
Views: 6860

Re: HEHR-tolerance versus Loss Aversion--why setting and maintaining your own AA might be a mistake

One of the things that was really interesting to me about the study I cited was the following: On the other hand, neither frequent evaluation of investment results nor frequent rebalancing taken separately appear to systematically increase the effect of loss aversion on investors’ portfolio holding...
by Johnnie
Tue Jun 06, 2017 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 167
Views: 31641

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

I just checked it out for the first time. Enjoyed the article about cash, among other things. As others have said, very cool. Thanks for Merriman Ultimate comparisons - that's the buy-hold-rebalance regime that finally caught my attention. I'm probably typical in having variations (a legacy of more ...
by Johnnie
Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CapitalSpectator major asset classes performance review
Replies: 5
Views: 339

Re: CapitalSpectator major asset classes performance review

There do indeed appear to be several international reit etfs. I'm a bit confused because this arose on the "Larry Swedroe on REITs" thread, and one of our good regulars posted this caution for moi , who had misidentified the nature of a fund: A word of warning: VGRLX is ex-US Real Estate, ...
by Johnnie
Tue Jun 06, 2017 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CapitalSpectator major asset classes performance review
Replies: 5
Views: 339

Re: CapitalSpectator major asset classes performance review

...The stark contrast between foreign and US REITs seems like a perfect case study for global diversification. Yeah, but apparently there's no way to do it outside DFA. :( From etfdb.com: S&P Global ex-U.S. REIT Index: "We’re sorry, there are no active ETFs associated with this index."
by Johnnie
Sun Jun 04, 2017 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everything keeps going up, this feels too easy?
Replies: 113
Views: 8668

Re: Everything keeps going up, this feels too easy?

And am gradually setting aside the money I will spend during the first 5 or 10 years of retirement. It is really hard to think of spending it. After a lifetime of savings it's as hard (or harder) to spend as it was to save. We humans are so perverse. <rolleyes> This is me to a T. Between SS and RMD...
by Johnnie
Sun Jun 04, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everything keeps going up, this feels too easy?
Replies: 113
Views: 8668

Re: Everything keeps going up, this feels too easy?

And am gradually setting aside the money I will spend during the first 5 or 10 years of retirement. It is really hard to think of spending it. After a lifetime of savings it's as hard (or harder) to spend as it was to save. We humans are so perverse. <rolleyes> This is me to a T and I suspect we're...
by Johnnie
Sun Jun 04, 2017 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everything keeps going up, this feels too easy?
Replies: 113
Views: 8668

Re: Everything keeps going up, this feels too easy?

To the OP: I am going to be blunt because I think it is important. Yes, you are market-timing, and no, you shouldn't do it. I don't know if any explanation will get you to stop, but if you look at the history of market-timing and why it fails, missing out on the end of up periods can be just as dam...
by Johnnie
Sat Jun 03, 2017 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Murphy's Law Of Retirement
Replies: 33
Views: 5187

Re: Murphy's Law Of Retirement

Oh geeze, can't we just enjoy the big numbers for a few days before worrying about the next thing? :wink: ( "You can have 30 minutes to enjoy it. Begin now.. .") ~~~~~~~~~ Seriously, I know this is commonplace, but in my early sixties it is still fascinating to experience the "squeeze...
by Johnnie
Fri Jun 02, 2017 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on REITs
Replies: 66
Views: 7166

Re: Larry Swedroe on REITs

A word of warning: VGRLX is ex-US Real Estate, not REIT. It actually contains a lot of non-REITs. Does this matter? Well, in the time period available, Vanguard's U.S. REIT fund has had a lower correlation to U.S. stocks than Vanguard's ex-U.S. Real Estate fund: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/...
by Johnnie
Fri Jun 02, 2017 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What makes a Conservative BHer? for retirement purposes
Replies: 16
Views: 1335

Re: What makes a Conservative BHer? for retirement purposes

My question would be "why do I care"? :confused This is one of those things that is completely subjective (what is conservative for one might be aggressive for someone else).... and in the end why does it matter? Why do we need to "label" things? All I need to know is whether I ...
by Johnnie
Fri Jun 02, 2017 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on REITs
Replies: 66
Views: 7166

Re: Larry Swedroe on REITs

I am DCAing into REITs via 401k contribs - an asset class I have not owned before - and the article has me considering diverting the inflow into international REITs, with a domestic/foreign target of 60/40, same as my other equities. So I looked at the VG global reit ex-US (VGRLX) and see - a .25% p...
by Johnnie
Wed May 31, 2017 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 74
Views: 6169

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

Simple question: Is a passive, low-cost, diversified index portfolio* really the best bet to achieve the highest possible risk-adjusted, long-term returns anywhere? How do you know this? Since we can't know the future, it may be the best bet that doesn't require you to conclude "it's different...
by Johnnie
Wed May 31, 2017 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 74
Views: 6169

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

Simple question: Is a passive, low-cost, diversified index portfolio* really the best bet to achieve the highest possible risk-adjusted, long-term returns anywhere? How do you know this? Since we can't know the future, it may be the best bet that doesn't require you to conclude "it's different...
by Johnnie
Wed May 31, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on REITs
Replies: 66
Views: 7166

Re: Larry Swedroe on REITs

Guilty. I own VG's REIT fund and I really don't understand the asset class. Do higher rates make it go up or down? Is it economically counter-cyclical or cyclical? Add other questions that I don't know enough to ask. This is the only asset class I own that I don't really understand. I added it becau...
by Johnnie
Mon May 29, 2017 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 206
Views: 15368

Re: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk

...I think its important to have realistic market downside scenarios and test your plan against them. My current one is: what if global equities crashed by 50% and stayed down for 20 years. Oooh, that a tough (good) one. Twenty years - yeah, that really twists the knife. I have an easier and WAY mo...
by Johnnie
Sat May 27, 2017 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolio vs DIY
Replies: 8
Views: 1037

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolio vs DIY

... I have ten mutual funds... I have eight - five equity index funds at VG and three at Schwab. I think I pay $6 each to rebalance them, except there's no cost moving from one VG to another. I think no cost - I only do it once a year. The process involves entering new balances in a spreadsheet, do...
by Johnnie
Thu May 25, 2017 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market News Feeds Worth Reading?
Replies: 22
Views: 1954

Re: Market News Feeds Worth Reading?

Ben Carlson is bright and refreshing. I get a daily link roundup that's useful and entertaining from this guy: https://abnormalreturns.com/ For my sins I also enjoy the fluffy "Need to Know" pre-market report on Marketwatch, which has plenty of snarky but mostly uncritical blurbs on toxic ...
by Johnnie
Sat May 20, 2017 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MarketWatch "Lazy Portfolios"
Replies: 10
Views: 1638

Re: MarketWatch "Lazy Portfolios"

I like Taylor Larimore a whole lot but I do cringe a bit when he says that the 2nd Grader starter portfolio outperforms most everything else. It is a 90% stock portfolio, no wonder that it would outperform other "Lazy Portfolios" that have something more like a 60/40 allocation. The stock...
by Johnnie
Sat May 20, 2017 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else track the value of their investments by discounting the value of equities?
Replies: 64
Views: 3953

Re: Anyone else track the value of their investments by discounting the value of equities?

Probably not day goes by that I don't mentally calculate what I would be worth after a 50 percent stock decline and how it would make me feel. With (hopefully) a few years of accumulating in front of me, the current answer to the latter is mostly "philosophical." When the pile stops being...
by Johnnie
Fri May 19, 2017 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International: Where's the benefit?
Replies: 63
Views: 5150

Re: International: Where's the benefit?

I don't think there's any compelling evidence that international stocks have either helped much or hurt much in the past. Presentations of data that show a benefit usually show a hair-thin benefit that can go either way depending on small changes in choice of endpoints, or on the use of stock categ...
by Johnnie
Fri May 19, 2017 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"
Replies: 39
Views: 4916

Re: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"

Oh that evil "quote" button drawing my mouse away from "edit." Deleted dupe.
by Johnnie
Fri May 19, 2017 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"
Replies: 39
Views: 4916

Re: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"

Rekenthaler Report: “Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed” wrote: The primary reason value investing has lost its mojo is not because stock buyers are behaving any differently, but because companies are. It’s a common behavioral trait. It’s always someone else’s fault. Yeah, it’s the companies fault,...
by Johnnie
Fri May 19, 2017 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Milestone and not peeking. . .
Replies: 66
Views: 7853

Re: Milestone and not peeking. . .

Yay you! Yay me and us too - I suspect few are on this board who don't deserve a little pat on the back for discipline and conscientiousness! Way to go, gang. I peek all the time when the market is going up, but turn it right off when it's going down. I'm a few years older than the OP and am tantali...
by Johnnie
Fri May 19, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else track the value of their investments by discounting the value of equities?
Replies: 64
Views: 3953

Re: Anyone else track the value of their investments by discounting the value of equities?

Probably not day goes by that I don't mentally calculate what I would be worth after a 50 percent stock decline and how it would make me feel. With (hopefully) a few years of accumulating in front of me, the current answer to the latter is mostly "philosophical." When the pile stops being ...
by Johnnie
Fri May 19, 2017 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 182
Views: 26800

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

I retired in 2013, but worked part-time for a few years after. Only fully retired about six months. I just turned 64. Asset allocation: 30% equities/70% fixed income. Why? I feel comfortable there. Not a quant. I understand there may be some inflation risk. Fixed pension: about 36k. No SS yet. Will...
by Johnnie
Mon May 15, 2017 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 182
Views: 26800

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

I'm not sure what you mean by "sweet spot" in terms of withdrawals from a 60/40. Will, like I said, "60/40 looks optimal" was my takeaway after staring at those post-1970 tables for excessive periods of time. It just kind of jumps out as the mix that would have carried a 1970 re...
by Johnnie
Mon May 15, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 182
Views: 26800

Re: Merriman Portfolio vs. Three-Fund Portfolio

First of all, I really enjoy and appreciate Paul Merriman's work. His podcast is a good 'listen' every week or so. FWIW, his 'ultimate buy-and-hold' portfolio, a 'slice and dice', is up about 1.5% in CAGR over the 'three fund portfolio' since 2001 (earliest data for TIPS in Portfolio Visualizer); t...
by Johnnie
Sun May 14, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 182
Views: 26800

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

Paul Merriman's distribution tables showing the performance of $1 million from 1970 to most recent year are where I got the idea that 60/40 was the "sweet spot." Just from staring at them you can see its better success rate during this particular wild ride of a 45 year period. Each table i...
by Johnnie
Sat May 13, 2017 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confirm Withdrawl Strategy
Replies: 17
Views: 1639

Re: Confirm Withdrawl Strategy

Technical question: I plan to do the same but know squat about the conversion process. I assume that a 2017 conversion must be done in 2017 - not sometime before 4/15/2018. I can guess pretty close what my final-final taxable income will be before 12/31/17, but what If I'm off and convert too much. ...
by Johnnie
Sun May 07, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why save so much for when you're old?
Replies: 163
Views: 18687

Re: Why save so much for when you're old?

My big question is why you think that living adventurously means spending all (or virtually all) of your income. Contrary to popular wisdom, spending money does not necessarily make you happy . You can live a fun lifestyle without necessarily spending 100% of your income. That's what had me scratch...
by Johnnie
Tue May 02, 2017 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why? Jeremy Siegel thinks 30 yr. bond a good l.t. buy/hold.
Replies: 13
Views: 1821

Re: Why? Jeremy Siegel thinks 30 yr. bond a good l.t. buy/hold.

I just realized why I really asked this question: Any way you measure it, given how pulverized the holder of a 30 year bond could get by inflation over that time, how can buying one be anything other than speculation?
by Johnnie
Tue May 02, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we all forgetting our taxable accounts?
Replies: 79
Views: 9898

Re: Are we all forgetting our taxable accounts?

I've been maxing roths and 401ks for a long time, which has meant not accumulating all that much in after-tax savings. I hope to stop working at 66 and not take social security until age 70. During those four years I'll have a low tax rate and want pile as much tax-deferred into Roth rollovers as I ...
by Johnnie
Tue May 02, 2017 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why? Jeremy Siegel thinks 30 yr. bond a good l.t. buy/hold.
Replies: 13
Views: 1821

Why? Jeremy Siegel thinks 30 yr. bond a good l.t. buy/hold.

MarketWatch is flogging his view, casting it as another "valuations are so high, all-gonna-die, so better bail on stocks" item - although Siegel doesn't actually say that. He says very little actually, because apparently the piece is derived from a TV appearance. "Part of Siegel’s thi...
by Johnnie
Sat Apr 22, 2017 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are pensions revered, but annuities reviled?
Replies: 113
Views: 10261

Re: Why are pensions revered, but annuities reviled?

Most pensions are now government, the best guarantor of any financial promise because it has a monopoly on legal violence. (And the worst possible defaulter because the promisee has no recourse.) Surely that has contributed to the good odor government pensions have with their beneficiaries. I suspec...
by Johnnie
Sat Apr 22, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single most important investing advice?
Replies: 97
Views: 11825

Re: Single most important investing advice?

dupe delete - D'OH. Sorry.

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