Search found 287 matches

by Johnnie
Sat May 20, 2017 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MarketWatch "Lazy Portfolios"
Replies: 10
Views: 1498

Re: MarketWatch "Lazy Portfolios"

I like Taylor Larimore a whole lot but I do cringe a bit when he says that the 2nd Grader starter portfolio outperforms most everything else. It is a 90% stock portfolio, no wonder that it would outperform other "Lazy Portfolios" that have something more like a 60/40 allocation. The stock...
by Johnnie
Sat May 20, 2017 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else track the value of their investments by discounting the value of equities?
Replies: 56
Views: 3019

Re: Anyone else track the value of their investments by discounting the value of equities?

Probably not day goes by that I don't mentally calculate what I would be worth after a 50 percent stock decline and how it would make me feel. With (hopefully) a few years of accumulating in front of me, the current answer to the latter is mostly "philosophical." When the pile stops being...
by Johnnie
Fri May 19, 2017 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International: Where's the benefit?
Replies: 63
Views: 4736

Re: International: Where's the benefit?

I don't think there's any compelling evidence that international stocks have either helped much or hurt much in the past. Presentations of data that show a benefit usually show a hair-thin benefit that can go either way depending on small changes in choice of endpoints, or on the use of stock categ...
by Johnnie
Fri May 19, 2017 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"
Replies: 39
Views: 4484

Re: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"

Oh that evil "quote" button drawing my mouse away from "edit." Deleted dupe.
by Johnnie
Fri May 19, 2017 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"
Replies: 39
Views: 4484

Re: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"

Rekenthaler Report: “Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed” wrote: The primary reason value investing has lost its mojo is not because stock buyers are behaving any differently, but because companies are. It’s a common behavioral trait. It’s always someone else’s fault. Yeah, it’s the companies fault,...
by Johnnie
Fri May 19, 2017 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Milestone and not peeking. . .
Replies: 53
Views: 5042

Re: Milestone and not peeking. . .

Yay you! Yay me and us too - I suspect few are on this board who don't deserve a little pat on the back for discipline and conscientiousness! Way to go, gang. I peek all the time when the market is going up, but turn it right off when it's going down. I'm a few years older than the OP and am tantali...
by Johnnie
Fri May 19, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else track the value of their investments by discounting the value of equities?
Replies: 56
Views: 3019

Re: Anyone else track the value of their investments by discounting the value of equities?

Probably not day goes by that I don't mentally calculate what I would be worth after a 50 percent stock decline and how it would make me feel. With (hopefully) a few years of accumulating in front of me, the current answer to the latter is mostly "philosophical." When the pile stops being ...
by Johnnie
Fri May 19, 2017 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 182
Views: 26088

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

I retired in 2013, but worked part-time for a few years after. Only fully retired about six months. I just turned 64. Asset allocation: 30% equities/70% fixed income. Why? I feel comfortable there. Not a quant. I understand there may be some inflation risk. Fixed pension: about 36k. No SS yet. Will...
by Johnnie
Mon May 15, 2017 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 182
Views: 26088

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

I'm not sure what you mean by "sweet spot" in terms of withdrawals from a 60/40. Will, like I said, "60/40 looks optimal" was my takeaway after staring at those post-1970 tables for excessive periods of time. It just kind of jumps out as the mix that would have carried a 1970 re...
by Johnnie
Mon May 15, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 182
Views: 26088

Re: Merriman Portfolio vs. Three-Fund Portfolio

First of all, I really enjoy and appreciate Paul Merriman's work. His podcast is a good 'listen' every week or so. FWIW, his 'ultimate buy-and-hold' portfolio, a 'slice and dice', is up about 1.5% in CAGR over the 'three fund portfolio' since 2001 (earliest data for TIPS in Portfolio Visualizer); t...
by Johnnie
Sun May 14, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 182
Views: 26088

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

Paul Merriman's distribution tables showing the performance of $1 million from 1970 to most recent year are where I got the idea that 60/40 was the "sweet spot." Just from staring at them you can see its better success rate during this particular wild ride of a 45 year period. Each table i...
by Johnnie
Sat May 13, 2017 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confirm Withdrawl Strategy
Replies: 17
Views: 1529

Re: Confirm Withdrawl Strategy

Technical question: I plan to do the same but know squat about the conversion process. I assume that a 2017 conversion must be done in 2017 - not sometime before 4/15/2018. I can guess pretty close what my final-final taxable income will be before 12/31/17, but what If I'm off and convert too much. ...
by Johnnie
Sun May 07, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why save so much for when you're old?
Replies: 163
Views: 18007

Re: Why save so much for when you're old?

My big question is why you think that living adventurously means spending all (or virtually all) of your income. Contrary to popular wisdom, spending money does not necessarily make you happy . You can live a fun lifestyle without necessarily spending 100% of your income. That's what had me scratch...
by Johnnie
Tue May 02, 2017 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why? Jeremy Siegel thinks 30 yr. bond a good l.t. buy/hold.
Replies: 13
Views: 1771

Re: Why? Jeremy Siegel thinks 30 yr. bond a good l.t. buy/hold.

I just realized why I really asked this question: Any way you measure it, given how pulverized the holder of a 30 year bond could get by inflation over that time, how can buying one be anything other than speculation?
by Johnnie
Tue May 02, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we all forgetting our taxable accounts?
Replies: 79
Views: 9633

Re: Are we all forgetting our taxable accounts?

I've been maxing roths and 401ks for a long time, which has meant not accumulating all that much in after-tax savings. I hope to stop working at 66 and not take social security until age 70. During those four years I'll have a low tax rate and want pile as much tax-deferred into Roth rollovers as I ...
by Johnnie
Tue May 02, 2017 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why? Jeremy Siegel thinks 30 yr. bond a good l.t. buy/hold.
Replies: 13
Views: 1771

Why? Jeremy Siegel thinks 30 yr. bond a good l.t. buy/hold.

MarketWatch is flogging his view, casting it as another "valuations are so high, all-gonna-die, so better bail on stocks" item - although Siegel doesn't actually say that. He says very little actually, because apparently the piece is derived from a TV appearance. "Part of Siegel’s thi...
by Johnnie
Sat Apr 22, 2017 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are pensions revered, but annuities reviled?
Replies: 113
Views: 9725

Re: Why are pensions revered, but annuities reviled?

Most pensions are now government, the best guarantor of any financial promise because it has a monopoly on legal violence. (And the worst possible defaulter because the promisee has no recourse.) Surely that has contributed to the good odor government pensions have with their beneficiaries. I suspec...
by Johnnie
Sat Apr 22, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single most important investing advice?
Replies: 96
Views: 10901

Re: Single most important investing advice?

dupe delete - D'OH. Sorry.
by Johnnie
Sat Apr 22, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single most important investing advice?
Replies: 96
Views: 10901

Re: Single most important investing advice?

Lot's of good ones but mine would have to be: "Nobody know's nothing". Ah, we had the same master, Sergeant "I know nothing" Schultz." Which is part of why the line of advice that sticks in my head - after you've got the saving part down of course - is " Time in the ma...
by Johnnie
Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article-Argument against Buffet and Bogle's International Advice
Replies: 36
Views: 4206

Re: Article-Argument against Buffet and Bogle's International Advice

I used to think along the same lines. However, upon further reading I realized that a lot of international returns are based on strength of US dollar vs other currencies, and I did not want to have so much currency risk in my portfolio. ...your spending will be in USD, not in weighted average of wo...
by Johnnie
Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Portfolio Tilt
Replies: 18
Views: 1991

Re: International Portfolio Tilt

My imagination was caught by Merriman's Ultimate equity portfolio, which has 50 percent international divided between LC, LCV, SC, SCV and EM. While DCAing into this over an 18 month period I chickened out on 50 percent international - based on various things said on this board - and went with 40 pe...
by Johnnie
Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Forms Nightmare
Replies: 7
Views: 1678

Re: Vanguard Forms Nightmare

Initiate the transfer online at Fidelity.... Right. I did a lot of consolidation last year, and as a general rule let the outfit that's going to get the money do the work. In fact, I mostly just dumped it in their laps and let them deal with it. I gave them instructions to telephone me if there was...
by Johnnie
Thu Apr 13, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me
Replies: 175
Views: 11787

Re: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me

...At the other extreme, you have the theory that there is a rebalancing bonus, that rebalancing is an important source of investment return, and (always good for an argument) a (false!) belief that rebalancing, in and of itself, can manufacture extra return out of volatility even if the asset clas...
by Johnnie
Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me
Replies: 175
Views: 11787

Re: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me

Maybe I can say all of that a little bit more concisely. My personal goal for accumulating wealth is to feel secure and have nice things in retirement. One of the nice things I want to have in retirement, that makes me feel secure, is low volatility in my portfolio. Period. Some want a Lexus, some ...
by Johnnie
Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Usefulness of bonds for equity investors who don't necessarily want them?
Replies: 50
Views: 3067

Re: Usefulness of bonds for equity investors who don't necessarily want them?

Historically the portfolio that has performed the best, the most often, is 100/0, for accumulation phase. Things get a little more complicated when you are spending down during retirement. For our situation, I found the optimum historical portfolio (as determined by highest ending assets, that woul...
by Johnnie
Sat Apr 08, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security at 62 vs 66
Replies: 53
Views: 9229

Re: Delaying is like buying a 7% coupon TIP

Deleted - time machine thread.
by Johnnie
Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stay the course, always?
Replies: 55
Views: 4478

Re: Stay the course, always?

I'm staying the course so I don't have to wonder and worry about what to do. It's exhausting and bootless.

It becomes a no brainer when so much evidence suggests that buy-hold-rebalance-stay the course increases your odds more than all the other ways.
by Johnnie
Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cars - possible recession indicator?
Replies: 21
Views: 3392

Re: Cars - possible recession indicator?

I would be real careful about making any decisions or even predictions about the economy based on vehicle sales data, much less anecdotal 'cars on the lot' evidence. As someone said, cars don't have the place in our society they did 40 years ago. But mostly I have Hayek on my mind, and the seen vs. ...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 25, 2017 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them
Replies: 103
Views: 6797

Re: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them

Larry, Thank You so much for this article!!! I read all of your articles at etf.com. Since you posted expected forward returns for US stocks and emerging markets, could you also post expected returns for small cap stocks, small cap value, international developed and Reits? Paul Merriman and yoursel...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 25, 2017 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 187
Views: 25871

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Larry Swedroe has said here and been cited by others that the benefits of going international almost almost all flow from either/or small caps or small cap value stocks (I forget which).

I have been unable to find any articles by Larry or others where this is explained. Any suggestions?

Thanks
by Johnnie
Wed Mar 22, 2017 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Motif Investing Implementation of Ultimate Buy and Hold
Replies: 26
Views: 2883

Re: Motif Investing Implementation of Ultimate Buy and Hold

Paul Merriman probably saved my retirement, because his MW articles finally captured my imagination and converted me from an ignorant, no-plan speculator with no clue how to invest properly into a fully-informed buy-hold-rebalance Boglehead type investor - Merriman wing. And along the way provided a...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in - WATER - thoughts
Replies: 57
Views: 4077

Re: Investing in - WATER - thoughts

Long ago, probably solving the world's problems over cocktails, a friend and fellow Michigander said to me, "We have it made here - we have all the water!" Yep. :) https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/68000/68562/GreatLakes.A2003260.1830.150x115_grid.jpg That may be true, bu...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 18, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in - WATER - thoughts
Replies: 57
Views: 4077

Re: Investing in - WATER - thoughts

Long ago, probably solving the world's problems over cocktails, a friend and fellow Michigander said to me, "We have it made here - we have all the water!" Yep. :) https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/68000/68562/GreatLakes.A2003260.1830.150x115_grid.jpg
by Johnnie
Tue Mar 14, 2017 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't let your political views impact your investment strategy
Replies: 28
Views: 3954

Re: Don't let your political views impact your investment strategy

Another detail is that even if you're more or less right about everything, the time lag between public policy and going into effect and seeing the results in the financial markets is both very long, and very loose. OTOH, the time lag between a market psychology/expectations swing - a' la' 11/8/16 -...
by Johnnie
Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?
Replies: 76
Views: 8854

Re: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?

I know nothing, but I note a few things: Capacity utilization is low everywhere and there's a commodity glut including oil. I just don't see how you get an irrational exuberance bubble from those ingredients. There appears lot of room for the private economy to grow without triggering big imbalances...
by Johnnie
Sun Mar 12, 2017 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Segmented Asset Allocation based on investment horizon?
Replies: 20
Views: 904

Re: Segmented Asset Allocation based on investment horizon?

My plan, from retirement day to drawing SS, is to mostly draw from taxable for expenses and do Roth conversion. Me too, and I'm a lot closer. I'm 60/40 and don't plan to change. I've seen in various places that an emergency fund should not be included in your investable assets. To me that means eno...
by Johnnie
Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Segmented Asset Allocation based on investment horizon?
Replies: 20
Views: 904

Re: Segmented Asset Allocation based on investment horizon?

It also hides your true asset allocation ... That's what I always conclude in discussions of various bucket strategies, that in the end they are just mental games, and hiding true AA is the risk you take with them. Which is not a high price if somewhere in the back of your mind you know the real sc...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons not to check the account balance too often
Replies: 42
Views: 4069

Re: Reasons not to check the account balance too often

I look once in the evening when it's going up, and not at all when it's going down. I feel the happy juice in my brain on the upside, but only hear about the other kind in less happy periods. Works for me.
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 11, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?
Replies: 85
Views: 6201

Re: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?

...I get that 1/2% is a lot over time, but is it really worth it? It is more complicated. I just started doing it 18 months ago, and just discovered boglehead style investing through it. Obviously whether this or Strict Rules of Bogle outperforms will be known only in the fullness of time, so we're...
by Johnnie
Sun Mar 05, 2017 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 1833

Re: madsinger monthly report (February 2017)

Fairly new to the forum and first time looking at this. Question: Are these 100% equity portfolios or do they include bonds? If they do, are they the same kind of bonds, and the same proportion of total A/A? If the answer is "Different proportions of different kinds of bonds in each portfolio&q...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 04, 2017 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would like comments on this Roth Conversion quote.
Replies: 30
Views: 2539

Re: Would like comments on this Roth Conversion quote.

I don't get it. How does rolling-over $30k of - lets say VFIAX - from a regular IRA to a Roth IRA change anything other than whether you pay tax now or later? I expect to have four years between my last paycheck and first social security check, and plan to do exactly that: Roll $30k/year from IRA to...
by Johnnie
Tue Feb 28, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which individual countries hold the most promise for future investment gains?
Replies: 86
Views: 6352

Re: Which individual countries hold the most promise for future investment gains?

2017 Index of economic freedom http://www.heritage.org/index/ranking Nos. 1-5 Hong Kong 89.8 +1.2 Switzerland 81.5 +0.5 Singapore 88.6 +0.8 Australia 81.0 +0.7 New Zealand 83.7 +2.1 No. 17: United States 75.1 -0.3 https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b2/Index_of_Economic_Freedom_2...
by Johnnie
Tue Feb 28, 2017 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mom & Pop investors piling in. Bad Sign/Good sign?
Replies: 36
Views: 7074

Re: Mom & Pop investors piling in. Bad Sign/Good sign?

I do believe that a recession is in the works. However, for me and most Bogleheads, we don't know when this recession will begin nor when it will end, so instead of banking on guessing correctly (a 1/2 * 1/2 or 1/4 chance), I'm just gonna stay the course. Right on the last bit, but you might also c...
by Johnnie
Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AP: Americans buy existing homes at fastest pace in a decade
Replies: 45
Views: 4242

Re: AP: Americans buy existing homes at fastest pace in a decade

I live in a cheap state. I think I could sell the house I bought for $150,000 in 2003 for - $150,000. Houses placed on the market here now do go pretty quickly, which I attribute in part to brokers who have become more skilled at persuading sellers not to aim too high - and homeowners who have been ...
by Johnnie
Fri Feb 24, 2017 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Run Ups - Now vs. Then
Replies: 88
Views: 6447

Re: Market Run Ups - Now vs. Then

I've lived through the 2000 and 2008-2009 market crashes....different circumstances, both devastating. I'm far more diversified now than before, and I have an asset allocation better suited to weather deep dives, etc. - and yet, my stomach still gets queasy when I see run ups. It's hard to shake of...
by Johnnie
Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?
Replies: 117
Views: 11462

Re: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?

Johnnie, Yes, but can they afford it? Based on the signs that I had seen, this generation will do worse than the previous generation financially. 1) More are living with parents. 2) Pay are not keeping up with the inflation rate. 3) Youth unemployment rate high even with the college graduates so on...

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