Search found 400 matches

by Johnnie
Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k "only" up 13.5% YTD
Replies: 17
Views: 1298

Re: 401k "only" up 13.5% YTD

But you can't expect to do the same as the "best asset class" every year. (Even if you tried, you'd need your magical powers to be in the "best asset class" every year.) We keep noticing the same thing... but then I need to remind myself that we slice and dice, so there will always be some "winners...
by Johnnie
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth as good as you think?
Replies: 29
Views: 3447

Re: Roth as good as you think?

The Wiki does the same calculation (and confirms your result) here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Traditional_versus_Roth So it really does come down to tax bracket at contribution versus tax bracket at withdrawal. The issue that is sometimes over-looked is that RMDs can easily push retirees into...
by Johnnie
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does everyone keep track of your portfolio?
Replies: 104
Views: 5840

Re: How does everyone keep track of your portfolio?

I'm another Excel user. I manually update values for each fund and it automatically updates my cost, asset allocations, and such. Ditto ditto. No automagic downloads for me - my trust was never that high, and is totally shot now. I have two sections on one excel page: One with each index fund in my...
by Johnnie
Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: old 401k transfer to new 401k or trad ira?
Replies: 8
Views: 593

Re: old 401k transfer to new 401k or trad ira?

If the new 401k is Vanguard you can't buy Admiral shares in it and will pay slightly higher fees. (Unless that has been changed.)
by Johnnie
Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the main purpose of rebalancing?
Replies: 59
Views: 4762

Re: What is the main purpose of rebalancing?

As a side benefit, selling your outperformers and buying underperformers is the definition of "buy low / sell high", the formula for making money in the market. :wink: It takes a lot of proving to show that rebalancing actually does any such thing. The actual effect of rebalancing in the long term ...
by Johnnie
Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US dollar fails, are stocks safe?
Replies: 44
Views: 5781

Re: If the US dollar fails, are stocks safe?

Responding to the OP, and sidestepping the definition of "failed," I have reported this personal experience before: As a young teenager I lived in Europe in 1968-69. I remember German and Swiss marks were worth about 25-cents US. Back in the U.S. I was busy for the next 10 years, and the next time I...
by Johnnie
Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 4029

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

No. 7: Set your A/A, set your domestic/international stock balance, pick your slice-and-dice funds and proportions if that's your preference - and then go away. I'm guilty of "peeking" when the market is hitting new highs, but am coming around to the view that even that is not benign. IOW, set it an...
by Johnnie
Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market
Replies: 41
Views: 4545

Re: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market

Right. As Buffett said, "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." Or as J.P. Morgan said about the flip side of today's market, “In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners.” :D ~~~~~~~~ Question: Does a buy-and-hold investor who has carefu...
by Johnnie
Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes Virginia, you can lose money in bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 4829

Re: Yes Virginia, you can lose money in bonds

I came of age in the 1970s and am scarred for life regarding bonds. Different times, different issues. What makes me slightly queasy now is this: “These bailouts and subsequent stimuli swelled global government debt, which jumped 75%, to $58 trillion in 2014 from $33 trillion in 2007.” http://www.ma...
by Johnnie
Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 36198

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

Two questions: I've read the thread and VPW wiki and played with its spreadsheet a little. I think I get it, and definitely get the goal of not grossly underspending to the point where one dies with a portfolio that has doubled or more. Is it fair to say the latter challenge is the main focus of VP...
by Johnnie
Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal -> Before retirement Age
Replies: 35
Views: 3383

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal -> Before retirement Age

...Assuming the $30K total SS benefit, my inclination would be to draw $30K from CDs from age 57 to 67, plus a VPW amount from the remaining portfolio each year starting at age 57. I think that is the intent. That's pretty much what I'm looking at for the bridge years between leaving work and start...
by Johnnie
Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: should my emergency fund be part of my cash AA?
Replies: 8
Views: 546

Re: should my emergency fund be part of my cash AA?

There was some recent research to the effect that for some people, having a big fat bank account balance just makes them more happy, even if they know all the things Bogleheads know. There was a brief discussion about it here, and one of the highly informed regulars opined that if you are one of tho...
by Johnnie
Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower
Replies: 72
Views: 7973

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower

My reaction to things like this is: It's mainly a plan for keeping high numbers on your mutual fund statements, and not really about living the good life* in a safe and secure retirement. I have a weakness for the former myself, but will resist it because I think the latter should be more important....
by Johnnie
Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 36198

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

Does this make sense? My goal is to retire at 66, use Cut-Throat's Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62 method to bridge the SS at 70 gap, and use the 4% SWR during those bridge years to mitigate bad sequence of returns risk. Then at age 70 shift to a 5% variable withdrawal rat...
by Johnnie
Sun Sep 03, 2017 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3972
Views: 1057705

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Heh-heh - Last week Josh Brown reminded readers of this January 12, 2016 'RBS Warns: Sell Everything' call:

The Dumbest Call of the Era

Well that was certainly "actionable." :twisted: :oops:
by Johnnie
Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 36198

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

This is the main point in the Kitces work. That by merely taking 4%, you are insuring against exactly that...a big drop in the early years. So, yes, if the market crashes in half, you can continue taking your original 4%, plus inflation, even though it's not actually 6 of 7% of your original balanc...
by Johnnie
Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is Always Risky
Replies: 42
Views: 3412

Re: The Stock Market Is Always Risky

I don't anchor on the starting value of my portfolio because I wouldn't know how to define it (When you invest a little per year for over 30 years - how do you define "start"). I could look at dollars I put in and take out an inflation component - but why bother? I just look at goals and current va...
by Johnnie
Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 47
Views: 5106

Re: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?

The other factor that threatens to reduce future returns of both stocks and bonds is debt. Currently household debt in the US is at an all time high and governmental debt, both federal and state, is also at or near all time highs. I think many of his predictions were right but in terms of investing...
by Johnnie
Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividing retirement savings between taxable and tax-advantaged accounts
Replies: 13
Views: 1575

Re: Dividing retirement savings between taxable and tax-advantaged accounts

Just a few years out from retirement, and the lion's share of my investable assets are in tax deferred accounts. This may pinch in one minor way: In the bridge years between salary and social security, with only de minimis taxable income, I plan to do Roth conversions up to the top of the 15 percent...
by Johnnie
Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 47
Views: 5106

Re: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?

Meanwhile back in the USA, I keep reading about a generational pig-in-a-python as tens of millions millennials hit the age where they leave mom's basement, get a decent job and move to the suburbs so they can have a yard for - their dogs. And maybe some kids too. The last one of similar magnitude wa...
by Johnnie
Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Wait & You'll Likely Miss Out
Replies: 74
Views: 10237

Re: Larry Swedroe: Wait & You'll Likely Miss Out

I do recall the end of 2015. I was one of those investors :-). I was 53 then and started cooling off my portfolio. I'm still paying the capital gains taxes from that AA shift. Ouch. :beer (purely medicinal) I've seen comments to the effect that it's better to make AA shifts gradually over time rath...
by Johnnie
Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value has had higher returns than Total Stock Market, with lower risk
Replies: 49
Views: 4394

Re: Small-Cap Value has higher returns than Total Stock Market, with lower risk

How old are you, OP? I'm a big value fan, but with an eye toward "long periods of under-performance," I'm looking to dial back my exposure a bit as I get closer to retirement (to 34% SCV, not counting what's in TSM and Total International). I don't have many "long periods" left, and don't want to wa...
by Johnnie
Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Review with Me - Larry Swedroe's new book
Replies: 160
Views: 6899

Re: Review with Me - Larry Swedroe's new book

It seems that Value has the smallest premium in the Large-Cap space and a larger premium in the Mid-Cap and Small-Cap space. I'm not finding it but didn't Larry write recently that in the international realm small and value are preferred because they provide better exposure to their home country ma...
by Johnnie
Sat Aug 26, 2017 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Unsolvable Puzzle by Morgan Housel
Replies: 11
Views: 1918

Re: The Unsolvable Puzzle by Morgan Housel

This bit blew me away: Think about the investment factors that have changed in just the last 20 years. Private equity assets have gone from $600 billion to more than $5 trillion. The number of public companies has halved. Index funds have attracted effectively all public equity asset flows. Annual r...
by Johnnie
Sat Aug 26, 2017 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Your Financial Life Is Complicated; Your Portfolio Shouldn't Be"
Replies: 8
Views: 1768

Re: "Your Financial Life Is Complicated; Your Portfolio Shouldn't Be"

"The quirkier your non-portfolio assets, the more simple, vanilla, and stripped down your investment portfolio ought to be." Heh-heh... Inquiring minds want to know: What kinds of "quirky non-portfolio assets" do Bogleheads own that contribute to their desire for simplicity? :?: :P ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ (...
by Johnnie
Sat Aug 26, 2017 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle video (discusses international)
Replies: 44
Views: 4021

Re: John Bogle video (discusses international)

I suppose that in 2000 you couldn't convince a dotcom investor to diversify, and in 1990 you couldn't convince a Japanese equity investor to diversify. US stocks have done well and are expensive. They will very likely underperform global stocks in the coming decades. Maybe by a lot. Owning Total Wo...
by Johnnie
Sun Aug 20, 2017 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 85
Views: 11911

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

The U.S. has the most stable government in the world, a strong rule of law including property rights and contract protections, a risk-taking entrepreneurial culture, and a regulatory system that puts a comparatively less heavy boot on the neck of economic animal spirits here. Bigness helps too, and...
by Johnnie
Sun Aug 20, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989
Replies: 78
Views: 7402

Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

The spelling is different, but I can't help taking a slight gulp at the previous poster's username on this particular thread. :!: :wink:
by Johnnie
Sun Aug 20, 2017 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 85
Views: 11911

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

The U.S. has the most stable government in the world, a strong rule of law including property rights and contract protections, a risk-taking entrepreneurial culture, and a regulatory system that puts a comparatively less heavy boot on the neck of economic animal spirits here. Bigness helps too, and ...
by Johnnie
Sun Aug 20, 2017 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989
Replies: 78
Views: 7402

Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

The scariest part of those numbers may be the duration not just the magnitude - 28 years and counting! We have some recency bias, having undergone two bear-maulings in the past 17 years with relatively quick recoveries. Japan is an ever-present caution that it doesn't always happen that way. We can ...
by Johnnie
Fri Aug 18, 2017 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Phillips Curve is not working!
Replies: 26
Views: 2796

Re: The Phillips Curve is not working!

Why are we talking about the Philips curve? Wasn't the notion was comprehensively demolished by reality in the stagflation of the 1970s? It sure felt like it to one living through that.

I think it's political. Reportedly Phillips never even intended it as a serious economic hypothesis.
by Johnnie
Fri Aug 18, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly
Replies: 71
Views: 6932

Re: "The Three-Fund Portfolio"

Bogleheads: Every once in while I check the returns of 10 "Lazy Portfolios" designed by "experts" with the The Three-Fund Portfolio . More often than not, Allan Roth's Second Grader's Starter (3-fund) Portfolio leads the pack: http://www.marketwatch.com/lazyportfolio Best wishes Taylor Why own the ...
by Johnnie
Fri Aug 18, 2017 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irrational Despair?
Replies: 39
Views: 5867

Re: Irrational Despair?

Studies show everyone who ever owns equities dies . On the bright side, I LOL'd at this Marketwatch title: "How China reclaimed its title as largest holder of Treasurys." Except, I couldn't remember whether China owning so much US debt or China unloading so much US debt was a prominent reason that w...
by Johnnie
Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly
Replies: 71
Views: 6932

Re: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly

WARNING! For those of you who are staunch TSMers, if you find this article convincing and start considering delving more into international and EM, international small, international small value, emerging small and value, you are actually taking your first dip into the world of Factor investing. Su...
by Johnnie
Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International correlations hit 20 year low
Replies: 33
Views: 3201

Re: International correlations hit 20 year low

Frustrating that Vanguard still doesn't offer a ISV fund. I, for one, would jump on this to replace my Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index Fund Investor Shares (VFSVX) holdings if they kept the ER at reasonable levels. My suspicion is that VG has not offered this because there aren't enou...
by Johnnie
Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401(k)/403(b) Conversion to Roth IRA
Replies: 22
Views: 2098

Re: 401(k)/403(b) Conversion to Roth IRA

Age 60 is a "qualifying event" that let me roll an active VG 403b into an IRA. The only hiccup was I had to call to promote the individual funds to admiral after the transfer. Contributions are still going into the 403b so every year I roll the new balance into the IRA (for neatness AND admiral fee...
by Johnnie
Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401(k)/403(b) Conversion to Roth IRA
Replies: 22
Views: 2098

Re: 401(k)/403(b) Conversion to Roth IRA

Age 60 is a "qualifying event" that let me roll an active VG 403b into an IRA. The only hiccup was I had to call to promote the individual funds to admiral after the transfer. Contributions are still going into the 403b so every year I roll the new balance into the IRA (for neatness AND admiral fees...
by Johnnie
Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's easy to have an investment plan until you get punched in the face
Replies: 53
Views: 6907

Re: It's easy to have an investment plan until you get punched in the face

If the market crashes, do you need to do something in order to rebalance? If the answer is nothing, it is easier to follow your investment plan. +1 Good point. Let's define "do something." I would have to liquidate shares in a short term Bond fund in an IRA and use the money to rebalance to 60/40. ...
by Johnnie
Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Beyond Efficient Markets
Replies: 13
Views: 1496

Re: Larry Swedroe: Beyond Efficient Markets

Lord knows Jason Zweig is not one to assert "It's different this time," but his points in this piece about the amount of stock/bond rebalancing now going on may be relevant: http://jasonzweig.com/the-market-really-is-different-this-time/ '...Financial advisers, many of whom “rebalance” or periodical...
by Johnnie
Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good article about having the "RIGHT" asset allocation
Replies: 27
Views: 3606

Re: Good article about having the "RIGHT" asset allocation

Josh Brown's blog had one man's answer to the main question in this WSJ piece: Will the masses who have bought into buy-and-hold since the long bull began keep the faith when the market goes south?

http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/08/08/nope/
by Johnnie
Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation
Replies: 72
Views: 8194

Re: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation

I dont mean any disrespect to the OP, but I really do not understand the point of threads like this. We all very well know the responses - some rehash of 1. market timing does not work; 2. Dont do something just stand there; 3. Keep investing etc It's a human thing. We're human. Also, it's fun, and...
by Johnnie
Tue Aug 08, 2017 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deja Vu.. are there too many houses for sale?
Replies: 47
Views: 4368

Re: Deja Vu.. are there too many houses for sale?

In 2003 I paid $150k for a nice 1,800 sf, four bedroom, one-level, full basement, "mid-century-modern" home on a lovely lot in a medium-size Michigan city that has a mediocre but not awful economy. The seller had paid $120k three years earlier.

I could probably get around $150k for it today. <shrug>
by Johnnie
Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation
Replies: 72
Views: 8194

Re: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation

$1,000 going into my 401k every two weeks (VGSIX at the moment - REITs). My first reaction at this news was glad to be 40% international. That's odd - the usual reaction would be just the opposite, expecting a "flight to quality" (US assets) if anything pops. I've also got Billy Joel "We didn't star...
by Johnnie
Mon Aug 07, 2017 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Tot Intl funds vs Venezuela
Replies: 19
Views: 1964

Re: Vanguard Tot Intl funds vs Venezuela

selters wrote:Unrest in Venezuela will probably increase oil prices, which has been good for ex US stocks historically.
Probably not though, because apparently U.S. frackers stand ready to ramp-up production at the least little price/demand pop.
by Johnnie
Sun Aug 06, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 225
Views: 34595

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

I feel so inadequate :shock: In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king. In the region of <$100,000 median home values, the Boglehead retiree with $1m investible assets and who waits until 70 to collect SS is an aristocrat. Johnnie, I think you're on to something; below US News Money 10 Plac...
by Johnnie
Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 225
Views: 34595

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

Mlm wrote:I feel so inadequate :shock:
In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king.

In the region of <$100,000 median home values, the Boglehead retiree with $1m investible assets and who waits until 70 to collect SS is an aristocrat.
by Johnnie
Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation for investments with known use date
Replies: 21
Views: 1830

Re: Asset allocation for investments with known use date

I've let it end with 10% stocks to be slightly aggressive and a small amount of inflation hedge. I like that detail. I've been thinking about another investment with a known use date - the retirement-to-social-security-at-70 bridge. The OP of a recently closed thread proposed that when you stop wor...
by Johnnie
Sun Aug 06, 2017 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Non-US AA
Replies: 6
Views: 694

Re: Vanguard Non-US AA

"Italy is c. 25% of all Eurozone government bonds, for example."

Hmm. Makes me think "market cap" is not the ideal metric for government debt in an international bond portfolio. It would mean loading up on debts of the most profligate and imprudent.