Search found 366 matches

by Johnnie
Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly
Replies: 47
Views: 3885

Re: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly

WARNING! For those of you who are staunch TSMers, if you find this article convincing and start considering delving more into international and EM, international small, international small value, emerging small and value, you are actually taking your first dip into the world of Factor investing. Su...
by Johnnie
Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International correlations hit 20 year low
Replies: 33
Views: 2815

Re: International correlations hit 20 year low

Frustrating that Vanguard still doesn't offer a ISV fund. I, for one, would jump on this to replace my Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index Fund Investor Shares (VFSVX) holdings if they kept the ER at reasonable levels. My suspicion is that VG has not offered this because there aren't enou...
by Johnnie
Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401(k)/403(b) Conversion to Roth IRA
Replies: 16
Views: 1153

Re: 401(k)/403(b) Conversion to Roth IRA

Age 60 is a "qualifying event" that let me roll an active VG 403b into an IRA. The only hiccup was I had to call to promote the individual funds to admiral after the transfer. Contributions are still going into the 403b so every year I roll the new balance into the IRA (for neatness AND admiral fee...
by Johnnie
Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401(k)/403(b) Conversion to Roth IRA
Replies: 16
Views: 1153

Re: 401(k)/403(b) Conversion to Roth IRA

Age 60 is a "qualifying event" that let me roll an active VG 403b into an IRA. The only hiccup was I had to call to promote the individual funds to admiral after the transfer. Contributions are still going into the 403b so every year I roll the new balance into the IRA (for neatness AND admiral fees...
by Johnnie
Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's easy to have an investment plan until you get punched in the face
Replies: 53
Views: 6430

Re: It's easy to have an investment plan until you get punched in the face

If the market crashes, do you need to do something in order to rebalance? If the answer is nothing, it is easier to follow your investment plan. +1 Good point. Let's define "do something." I would have to liquidate shares in a short term Bond fund in an IRA and use the money to rebalance to 60/40. ...
by Johnnie
Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Beyond Efficient Markets
Replies: 13
Views: 1344

Re: Larry Swedroe: Beyond Efficient Markets

Lord knows Jason Zweig is not one to assert "It's different this time," but his points in this piece about the amount of stock/bond rebalancing now going on may be relevant: http://jasonzweig.com/the-market-really-is-different-this-time/ '...Financial advisers, many of whom “rebalance” or periodical...
by Johnnie
Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good article about having the "RIGHT" asset allocation
Replies: 27
Views: 3405

Re: Good article about having the "RIGHT" asset allocation

Josh Brown's blog had one man's answer to the main question in this WSJ piece: Will the masses who have bought into buy-and-hold since the long bull began keep the faith when the market goes south?

http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/08/08/nope/
by Johnnie
Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation
Replies: 72
Views: 7586

Re: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation

I dont mean any disrespect to the OP, but I really do not understand the point of threads like this. We all very well know the responses - some rehash of 1. market timing does not work; 2. Dont do something just stand there; 3. Keep investing etc It's a human thing. We're human. Also, it's fun, and...
by Johnnie
Tue Aug 08, 2017 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deja Vu.. are there too many houses for sale?
Replies: 47
Views: 4104

Re: Deja Vu.. are there too many houses for sale?

In 2003 I paid $150k for a nice 1,800 sf, four bedroom, one-level, full basement, "mid-century-modern" home on a lovely lot in a medium-size Michigan city that has a mediocre but not awful economy. The seller had paid $120k three years earlier.

I could probably get around $150k for it today. <shrug>
by Johnnie
Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation
Replies: 72
Views: 7586

Re: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation

$1,000 going into my 401k every two weeks (VGSIX at the moment - REITs). My first reaction at this news was glad to be 40% international. That's odd - the usual reaction would be just the opposite, expecting a "flight to quality" (US assets) if anything pops. I've also got Billy Joel "We didn't star...
by Johnnie
Mon Aug 07, 2017 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Tot Intl funds vs Venezuela
Replies: 19
Views: 1786

Re: Vanguard Tot Intl funds vs Venezuela

selters wrote:Unrest in Venezuela will probably increase oil prices, which has been good for ex US stocks historically.
Probably not though, because apparently U.S. frackers stand ready to ramp-up production at the least little price/demand pop.
by Johnnie
Sun Aug 06, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 225
Views: 32750

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

I feel so inadequate :shock: In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king. In the region of <$100,000 median home values, the Boglehead retiree with $1m investible assets and who waits until 70 to collect SS is an aristocrat. Johnnie, I think you're on to something; below US News Money 10 Plac...
by Johnnie
Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 225
Views: 32750

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

Mlm wrote:I feel so inadequate :shock:
In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king.

In the region of <$100,000 median home values, the Boglehead retiree with $1m investible assets and who waits until 70 to collect SS is an aristocrat.
by Johnnie
Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation for investments with known use date
Replies: 21
Views: 1648

Re: Asset allocation for investments with known use date

I've let it end with 10% stocks to be slightly aggressive and a small amount of inflation hedge. I like that detail. I've been thinking about another investment with a known use date - the retirement-to-social-security-at-70 bridge. The OP of a recently closed thread proposed that when you stop wor...
by Johnnie
Sun Aug 06, 2017 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Non-US AA
Replies: 6
Views: 621

Re: Vanguard Non-US AA

"Italy is c. 25% of all Eurozone government bonds, for example."

Hmm. Makes me think "market cap" is not the ideal metric for government debt in an international bond portfolio. It would mean loading up on debts of the most profligate and imprudent.
by Johnnie
Sat Aug 05, 2017 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Horizon Impact on Bond Selection
Replies: 10
Views: 864

Re: Time Horizon Impact on Bond Selection

We have no choice. The market and it's assets don't care about our aims and goals. No matter what our aims and goals, bonds provide relative stability (ballast). That's their nature, having relatively low standard deviations of returns. They do not provide "income". How can they provide i...
by Johnnie
Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Puts Rivals on Notice: Fee Wars Will Only Heat Up
Replies: 62
Views: 5837

Re: "Vanguard Puts Rival Firms On Notice: Fee Wars Will Only Heat Up"

While it is good, Vanguard charging $5.00 per month for 403b participants is a big step in wrong direction. Most 403b participants do not get a match either. While I have no idea about Schwab's charges , FIDO charges $ 4.00 per year . I think MR. Buckley should reverse that decision. P.S. It does n...
by Johnnie
Fri Aug 04, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illusion of poverty/wealth
Replies: 166
Views: 25781

Re: Illusion of poverty/wealth

I have not read the whole thread, but see it deep-diving into annuities. I just received a link to this, which may be relevant: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2017/07/31/what-advisors-need-to-know-about-annuity-mortality-credits The mortality credits appear larger than various posts on...
by Johnnie
Thu Aug 03, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Do Stocks Keep Hitting Records? msn/WSJ
Replies: 25
Views: 3793

Re: Why Do Stocks Keep Hitting Records? msn/WSJ

:Shrug: There seems to be a newsworthy difference of opinion in the investment community, and they have a news-reporting maw to feed. IOW, looks like journalism, not porn. Presumably the reporter gives both sides. If not, the Boglehead community should let him or her and the editor know that there i...
by Johnnie
Thu Aug 03, 2017 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is now time to move into international stocks?
Replies: 57
Views: 6564

Re: Is now time to move into international stocks?

Allow me to restate the question: "I've been thinking of making a change to my long term buy-and-hold equity allocation, which is to add international exposure. Based on valuations, if I'm going to do it anyway, looking back a few years from now this might turn out to have been a good time.&quo...
by Johnnie
Wed Aug 02, 2017 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone following the latest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency news?
Replies: 25
Views: 4555

Re: Anyone following the latest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency news?

Ten years ago, self-driving cars were the stuff of science fiction and now they're hitting the roads. No they're not, and it may be a long time before they do in a meaningful way, not counting niche functions like parallel parking and such. The reality is, mixing unpredictable and flawed human driv...
by Johnnie
Tue Aug 01, 2017 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?
Replies: 90
Views: 8923

Re: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?

No AA change, but I have lower quality than I would prefer, and short durations.

Specifically, VG's investment grade short term bond fund, and a Schwab version of the same. So not quite junk bonds :wink: , but my druthers are to be in Treasuries.
by Johnnie
Mon Jul 31, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets, not Emerging Market Indexes
Replies: 21
Views: 1639

Re: Emerging Markets, not Emerging Market Indexes

I have traditionally over weighted Emerging Markets because of a small cap and value story. There is a nice clean path from 3rd world poverty to middle income economies. As economies grow they are going to need local Coca-Cola distributes, running office buildings, infrastructure projects, contract...
by Johnnie
Mon Jul 31, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preparing for change = personal financial planning implications
Replies: 10
Views: 949

Re: Preparing for change = personal financial planning implications

It's hype and political theater promoted by rent-seekers, statists, elitists, green-religionists and people to whom the concept "order of magnitude" is alien.

If that causes the thread to be closed that's fine by me.
by Johnnie
Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If You're Uncomfortable With Your AA, Maybe You're In The Right Place
Replies: 26
Views: 2609

Re: If You're Uncomfortable With Your AA, Maybe You're In The Right Place

60/40, but thinking about gradually dialing back to 50/50 as I approach retirement in the next few years, and then ratcheting back up to 60 percent equities as I approach taking social security at age 70 (which will cover core expenses). That's my story, but the truth may be closer to this honest Bo...
by Johnnie
Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31366

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Alongside this thread is one discussing what high CAPE 10 ratios suggest for long term returns going forward. This may be unfair but I sense a potential contradiction: Those who are most likely to embrace CAPE as a warning to expect low returns on US stocks for the next 10 years tend to also be Stri...
by Johnnie
Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 27
Views: 2389

Re: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital

Deleted and moved to one of the international investing argument threads.
by Johnnie
Sun Jul 30, 2017 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31366

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

FIREchief wrote:
triceratop wrote:
The entire point of total market investing is to own all the winners.


Flip that coin over and you also see that you will own all the losers. :annoyed

In the same spirit, the losers can only go to zero though. The winners can go to the moon, Alice! :twisted:
by Johnnie
Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time, not material goods, 'raises happiness'
Replies: 38
Views: 4129

Re: Time, not material goods, 'raises happiness'

Silence Dogood wrote:Bogleheads have known this for a long time:

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-40703519

"Using money to free-up time is linked to increased happiness, a study says."

I googled local housecleaning services after reading this. I can afford it and it's past time. :oops:
by Johnnie
Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Withdrawal Sequence/Strategy
Replies: 19
Views: 3591

Re: Retirement Withdrawal Sequence/Strategy

Check this out, H/T Rick0: ORP is an online calculator that tries to answer that question. I would recommend giving it a try. Be sure to scroll down as there is an Extended ORP data entry thats often missed, and gives you many options to play with. https://www.i-orp.com/gamma/index.html Essential OR...
by Johnnie
Mon Jul 24, 2017 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31366

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Heh-heh - my thoughts keep returning to this post every time the issue comes up, and I hope the reminder doesn't make its author grimace. It sticks with me because in the face of high US valuations, Japan horror stories and all the rest, this remains the most plausible case I have seen to ignore all...
by Johnnie
Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 8360

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

I know it's only 13 years, put still.... https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VBR+VNQ&endDate=07%2F22%2F2017&timePeriod=1&numTradingDays=60 About a year or so ago Larry's articles on REIT valuation got me looking into why I owned them. Then I learned th...
by Johnnie
Sat Jul 22, 2017 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My favorite CNBC program
Replies: 33
Views: 3624

Re: My favorite CNBC program

Guilty pleasure: Cramer's opening monologue. I got in the habit in the second half of 2013, when he was regularly explaining the mind set of money managers desperate for a dip so they could get in on one of the great one-year bull runs in history, if only for end-of-year "window-dressing" ...
by Johnnie
Fri Jul 21, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle is pro-SCV!
Replies: 36
Views: 4006

Re: Bogle is pro-SCV!

Also, on a podcast with doughroller Paul Merriman stated he times the market. And it works. Even the host was shock. DR 270: The Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy with Paul Merriman Merriman says half his portfolio is in a "mechanical," rules-based momentum-based timing system that supposedl...
by Johnnie
Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle is pro-SCV!
Replies: 36
Views: 4006

Re: Bogle is pro-SCV!

Apples and oranges The argument for broad market index is that you are guaranteed mathematically to do exactly as well as the average domestic stock investor,before taxes and expenses, and practically guaranteed to outperform average net of taxes and fees. That's a powerful argument to convince peo...
by Johnnie
Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing
Replies: 104
Views: 3862

Re: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing

Two thoughts: First, and regarding the distribution phase, you live your life one year at a time, not in 20 year chunks. Big swings in your portfolio are felt year to year, and retirees are people too. Second, I saw one of those Wall Street guys somewhere in some article saying that among the things...
by Johnnie
Wed Jul 19, 2017 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cramer makes the bull case for including bonds in your portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 3205

Re: Cramer makes the bull case for including bonds in your portfolio

In his daily monologue he just dissed indexers' warnings about single stock risk, and went on to pump FANG stocks.

ETA: I just realized this is a bond thread, not the Cramer talks index funds thread. Close enough though.
by Johnnie
Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: depleting accounts in retirement
Replies: 27
Views: 4981

Re: depleting accounts in retirement

You can set the IORP calculator for zero inflation. You can also set it for a set amount of spending each year adjusted for inflation. OR you can set it for variable spending if you like. You can set your return rates to whatever you like by category. I have found it to be a big help when running c...
by Johnnie
Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: depleting accounts in retirement
Replies: 27
Views: 4981

Re: depleting accounts in retirement

ORP is an online calculator that tries to answer that question. I would recommend giving it a try. Be sure to scroll down as there is an Extended ORP data entry thats often missed, and gives you many options to play with. https://www.i-orp.com/gamma/index.html Essential ORP asks for the basic facts...
by Johnnie
Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?
Replies: 166
Views: 17728

Re: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?

How I'm handling it: - I peek every day the market is up and mentally approximate how much richer I am. On some days I neglect to run the other approximation, which is how much would have to be plundered from my bond fund to rebalance after a 50 percent stock decline. - I take more pleasure in being...
by Johnnie
Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market vs Limit order
Replies: 50
Views: 3481

Re: Market vs Limit order

I started using limit orders after the flash crash.

Of course my only relevant transactions anymore are annual rebalancing of the two etfs in my Merriman slice 'n' dice.
by Johnnie
Sat Jul 15, 2017 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: % bogleheads of overall population
Replies: 82
Views: 10468

Re: % bogleheads of overall population

The max 401k contribution is the same whether you earn $20k/year or $120k. So talking about contribution practices of households makes no sense without the additional context of income. I feel for those making the median income who have a couple kids, some college debt, a mortgage and a car loan. No...
by Johnnie
Sat Jul 15, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 403b Changes
Replies: 109
Views: 8119

Re: Vanguard 403b Changes

When I turned 60 I rolled my VG 403b into an IRA specifically for the Admiral option. I'm still contributing and now roll it over on an annual basis. I didn't know I could do that until I called VG and tried to move 403b accounts into Admiral shares. Thankfully an on-the-ball VG rep noticed I had ju...
by Johnnie
Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement is Risky Business
Replies: 41
Views: 6973

Re: Retirement is Risky Business

Risk 20: Being taken to the cleaners by your Retirement Income Certified Professional risk Dale That makes me think of all those "free" dinner invitations I get from those "Retirement Income Certified Professionals." The expression should be: "There ain't no free dinner.&qu...
by Johnnie
Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own
Replies: 89
Views: 11779

Re: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own

What's your alternative basis for choosing an investment plan? Off the top of my head, there are three thing that can be considered: ⋅  Cap Weighting . Go with the collective wisdom of all market participants. ⋅  Simplicity . No re-balancing between equity classes. ⋅  ...
by Johnnie
Sat Jul 08, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own
Replies: 89
Views: 11779

Re: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own

Merriman points to decades of evidence from the academics in favor of SCV. Swedroe includes the behavioral element in his explanations for the persistence, among others. Articles by both laying it out in detail are highly accessible. Sure, no one knows what the future will bring, and no thinks the p...
by Johnnie
Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein on Meb Faber's podcast
Replies: 54
Views: 6917

Re: William Bernstein on Meb Faber's podcast

Hi All: I do like anzon's "why not 100% stocks" criteria. i've thought about it, but don't consider it quite strong enough. more telling was the motley fool's chant from the tech bubble, which went something like "every penny you don't invest in stocks will hurt you," as i recal...
by Johnnie
Mon Jul 03, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own
Replies: 89
Views: 11779

Re: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own

On what basis do Bogleheads believe that having 100 percent of their equities in TSM is likely to be optimal? Or that a three-fund portfolio is optimal? I assume this belief is based on empirical research on what has happened in the past, subject to all the usual qualifications (PPINGOFR). How is th...
by Johnnie
Thu Jun 29, 2017 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good on Cramer!
Replies: 19
Views: 4307

Re: Good on Cramer!

Yes he advises people to have an index fund for their core holding, but gives no further context whatsoever - and then leaps right back into trading and stock-picking. This has the effect of downplaying the good advice, as if he's only saying it because he thinks he has to. Bottom line, it's still a...