Search found 432 matches

by Johnnie
Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Financial Shock" wealth
Replies: 33
Views: 5992

Re: "Financial Shock" wealth

Thought this article was intriguing until it got political. Immediately lost all appetite for information. Except, it's not political. It says nothing about public policy. It describes a conceptual model of the differential impact of ordinary financial shocks on those above and below a point where ...
by Johnnie
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Financial Shock" wealth
Replies: 33
Views: 5992

Re: "Financial Shock" wealth

It's a disturbing article because the second half suggests "the rich get richer and the poor get poorer" may be endemic to the human condition - a "one-way ratchet." Overall it makes me feel hugely fortunate but totally unable to feel smug about it. Here are some relevant excerpts from the disturbin...
by Johnnie
Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate & Treasury Bonds: Where's the risk?
Replies: 21
Views: 1914

Re: Corporate & Treasury Bonds: Where's the risk?

Bill Gross is saying bond risk represented by a spike in rates is so great now that bonds may not protect portfolios in a big equity downdraft: “Risk assets, therefore, have a less ‘insurable’ left tail that should be priced into higher risk premiums. Should a crisis arise because of policy mistakes...
by Johnnie
Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Finding The Source Of Value
Replies: 19
Views: 2078

Re: Larry Swedroe: Finding The Source Of Value

From the article: ...Following is a summary of their findings: There’s a strong countercyclical variation in the value premium’s market beta. Macroeconomic variables are informative in estimating the conditional (that is, conditioned upon the state of the economy) capital asset pricing model. Consis...
by Johnnie
Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?
Replies: 136
Views: 19578

Re: What % of your income have you saved?

What a fascinating exercise! Much obliged to tfb for bumping this 2013 thread (which I see had another round that I missed last May). Using Social Security earnings as basis I have been blessed to be worth 120% of my life time earnings. With just savings figuring into the equation no real estate I a...
by Johnnie
Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you do right?
Replies: 96
Views: 9236

Re: What did you do right?

Right: Maxed-out tax-deferred savings opportunities pretty much since they were invented, starting with IRAs, then 401ks and Roths. Thankfully, I've always been a super-saver. Wrong: I never learned how to invest properly until I started reading Paul Merriman in Marketwatch a few years ago. Alas, I'...
by Johnnie
Sat Nov 25, 2017 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 195
Views: 14938

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

Many thanks to ArtsDoctor for this: In order to answer your own questions, you'll need to understand the 1994 study on which the 4% SWR was originally calculated. Once you've actually looked into that study and subsequent studies, you'll see that there are many caveats. You can start with a variety...
by Johnnie
Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding VTSAX only
Replies: 46
Views: 5649

Re: Holding VTSAX only

From Ben Carlson writing about an Evidence Based Investing Conference: 'Barry began his fireside chat with the new incoming CEO of Vanguard, Tim Buckley, by asking what his favorite stock is. Buckley didn’t skip a beat and joked, “All of them.”' http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/11/6-things-that-...
by Johnnie
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle, the world's richest man
Replies: 25
Views: 5066

Re: Jack Bogle, the word's richest man

Image

"A toast to my big brother, Jack: The richest man in town."


Ding-ding, ding-ding...

:sharebeer
by Johnnie
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 13098

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

"- Market valuation at the time of retirement can impact market returns over an extended period of time, which in turn impacts safe withdrawal rates. When market valuation is at average or favorable levels, increase the safe withdrawal rate by 0.5% to 1.0%; at unfavorable valuation, use the existing...
by Johnnie
Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: As we gear up for the predictions season, a look back on how they fared for 2017 so far
Replies: 19
Views: 2278

Re: As we gear up for the predictions season, a look back on how they fared for 2017 so far

technovelist wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:48 pm
It would be pretty hard to sell a newsletter that said "We don't know what is going to happen, so just buy the market and spend your time on other matters".
Right, you need a forum to do that. :wink:
by Johnnie
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Personal Black Swan
Replies: 46
Views: 5814

Re: The Personal Black Swan

We really don't know whether the internet is robust or fragile, and my black swan nightmare is that something or someone takes it down for more than a couple of days. I don't think people realize just how huge a disruption that would be even if it only lasted a week, and if it were longer - Katie ba...
by Johnnie
Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Split the Equity allocation 50% US / 50% International
Replies: 40
Views: 5234

Re: Split the Equity allocation 50% US / 50% International

The issue is not intellectual (which would default to 45/55 US/Foreign) but psychological: tracking error tolerance. My clients read the Wall Street Journal. When International stocks outperform domestic, they say, "Great job, Phil, really love those international stocks." When international stocks...
by Johnnie
Sat Nov 11, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do people mean when they say their SWR is X% or they have X times expenses?
Replies: 27
Views: 2164

Re: What do people mean when they say their SWR is X% or they have X times expenses?

There are two resources that I have found useful for refining my own thinking on this and related issues: The first is "Cut-Throat's famous 'Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62'" post: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=102609 The other is a deep dive Michael Kit...
by Johnnie
Sat Nov 11, 2017 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 13098

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

I really do not see any likelihood of such grave events that trading in metals becomes a method of survival. I would suggest that if it ever did get to a point close to that your preferred metal would be lead as opposed to the shiny silver or gold. Seriously, while it can be fun to talk about prepp...
by Johnnie
Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much does diligent rebalancing add to a portfolio?
Replies: 35
Views: 2397

Re: How much does diligent rebalancing add to a portfolio?

There is another factor that we have not talked about there, how we rebalance and the type of market we are in. There are concave and convex rebalancing options out there. Each of these rebalances risk but in different ways. Concave, or having a fixed asset allocation, does best in a osculating mar...
by Johnnie
Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 13098

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

If any of those kind of black swan events happen and assets aren't completely worthless then those with assets will be in a better position than those without. If assets are worthless then it won't matter either way except for the regret those of us who saved will have over not buying a Ferrari and...
by Johnnie
Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 13098

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

dupe, sorry. that evil 'quote' link right next to 'edit.'
by Johnnie
Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 13098

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

...For example, since I retired 7 years ago, I have spent $13k to replace HVAC/ductwork, $10k tree work, $6k new french drain to re-mediate drainage/moisture issues, wood rot on foundation sill $3k and numerous other smaller repairs. My wife and I have incurred some significant dental expenses whic...
by Johnnie
Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is a good time to rebalance?
Replies: 30
Views: 2365

Re: When is a good time to rebalance?

I'm a Merriman-head. He does it annually at the same time of year, and suggests that more often is contra-indicated for momentum reasons. Here's what I like about that: It's a hard and fast rule, which takes away any hint of market-timing, and conforms with my signature line below. I know there are ...
by Johnnie
Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pre-Retirement “Reentry Blackout” Period
Replies: 4
Views: 624

Re: Pre-Retirement “Reentry Blackout” Period

PFInterest wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:40 pm
Isn't the (sorta) worst thing you'll die before the 3 yrs....
Not really, because that will resolve all the uncertainty and every other worry in single stroke! (Maybe literally.)
by Johnnie
Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 38
Views: 2681

Re: 1-yr, 3-yrs 5-yrs and 10-year results for 10 Professionally Designed Portfolios

Johnnie: You can also compare 10 professionally designed portfolios on MarketWatch. Mr. Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio is last for 1-yr, 3-yrs, 5-yrs and 10-yr returns. The Second Graders Three-Fund Portfolio is tied for first place: Past performance does not forecast future performance...
by Johnnie
Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pre-Retirement “Reentry Blackout” Period
Replies: 4
Views: 624

Pre-Retirement “Reentry Blackout” Period

I’m three years out from retirement, and am struggling with the amount of uncertainty it is generating. A partial list includes: What will Mr. Market offer or take away in that time? Will my job last? Will my health last? Will the house I now occupy but plan to sell bring the expected price? How muc...
by Johnnie
Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey sounded like a Boglehead today (Nov 2 2017)
Replies: 33
Views: 5569

Re: Dave Ramsey sounded like a Boglehead today (Nov 2 2017)

I've only heard small bits in the car, and what surprises me and I don't understand is why he's not a total Boglehead on the investing side. The three-fund portfolio is hardly rocket science (one of its virtues), and to borrow Larry Swedroe's meme about factors, it's "persistent, pervasive, robust, ...
by Johnnie
Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 38
Views: 2681

Re: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing

...But it should be pointed out that, on the emotional front, equity diversification is far from a free lunch. The performance of multi-asset equity portfolios will inevitably diverge from the broad market indexes, sometimes significantly and often for long periods of time. To reap the rewards of d...
by Johnnie
Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Great Moderation
Replies: 3
Views: 1562

The Great Moderation

Interesting commentary on The Great Moderation by Alex Tabarrok. Here's some excerpts from the short blog post: "In 2002, Stock and Watson pointed out that the volatility in the growth rate of real GDP between 1984 and 2001 was much lower than it had been between 1960 and 1983, a phenomena dubbed th...
by Johnnie
Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emotional impact of spending down assets?
Replies: 100
Views: 10129

Re: Emotional impact of spending down assets?

I'm three years out from retirement. It makes me happy to have a respectable portfolio, and I would be unhappy without one, even with mortality looming. However, "respectable" is a relative term. If I were worth half as much at age 85 as at 65 that would probably be good enough. I also look forward ...
by Johnnie
Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 47
Views: 3849

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

Everyone right now seems to think that a crash is imminent. Which makes me wonder if the exact opposite is true. Has the public ever been right about anything market timing related? Is "think the opposite of what everyone else thinks the market's headed" a viable strategy? Generally speaking, I'm w...
by Johnnie
Sun Oct 22, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When one reaches the 1 million mark what to do with all the money?
Replies: 33
Views: 6362

Re: When one reaches the 1 million mark what to do with all the money?

Some of those scenarios almost (but not quite) veer in the direction of "guns, gold and stocks of stored food" as the indicated safeguard. The one that scares me is what if the internet goes dark, given how many routine transactions now require it. For example, I suspect no one at the local bank cou...
by Johnnie
Sun Oct 22, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?
Replies: 204
Views: 15673

Re: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?

It's not the only reason, but disposition is a big part of it for me. Ever since I was a kid, the thing I've always liked doing best is curling up with a good book. That doesn't cost much. These days I get most of them at the library. :) Part of why I save and invest so that I will always have the l...
by Johnnie
Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k "only" up 13.5% YTD
Replies: 26
Views: 2695

Re: 401k "only" up 13.5% YTD

But you can't expect to do the same as the "best asset class" every year. (Even if you tried, you'd need your magical powers to be in the "best asset class" every year.) We keep noticing the same thing... but then I need to remind myself that we slice and dice, so there will always be some "winners...
by Johnnie
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth as good as you think?
Replies: 29
Views: 3665

Re: Roth as good as you think?

The Wiki does the same calculation (and confirms your result) here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Traditional_versus_Roth So it really does come down to tax bracket at contribution versus tax bracket at withdrawal. The issue that is sometimes over-looked is that RMDs can easily push retirees into...
by Johnnie
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does everyone keep track of your portfolio?
Replies: 107
Views: 7417

Re: How does everyone keep track of your portfolio?

I'm another Excel user. I manually update values for each fund and it automatically updates my cost, asset allocations, and such. Ditto ditto. No automagic downloads for me - my trust was never that high, and is totally shot now. I have two sections on one excel page: One with each index fund in my...
by Johnnie
Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: old 401k transfer to new 401k or trad ira?
Replies: 8
Views: 645

Re: old 401k transfer to new 401k or trad ira?

If the new 401k is Vanguard you can't buy Admiral shares in it and will pay slightly higher fees. (Unless that has been changed.)
by Johnnie
Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the main purpose of rebalancing?
Replies: 59
Views: 5009

Re: What is the main purpose of rebalancing?

As a side benefit, selling your outperformers and buying underperformers is the definition of "buy low / sell high", the formula for making money in the market. :wink: It takes a lot of proving to show that rebalancing actually does any such thing. The actual effect of rebalancing in the long term ...
by Johnnie
Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US dollar fails, are stocks safe?
Replies: 44
Views: 5936

Re: If the US dollar fails, are stocks safe?

Responding to the OP, and sidestepping the definition of "failed," I have reported this personal experience before: As a young teenager I lived in Europe in 1968-69. I remember German and Swiss marks were worth about 25-cents US. Back in the U.S. I was busy for the next 10 years, and the next time I...
by Johnnie
Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 4189

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

No. 7: Set your A/A, set your domestic/international stock balance, pick your slice-and-dice funds and proportions if that's your preference - and then go away. I'm guilty of "peeking" when the market is hitting new highs, but am coming around to the view that even that is not benign. IOW, set it an...
by Johnnie
Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market
Replies: 41
Views: 4844

Re: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market

Right. As Buffett said, "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." Or as J.P. Morgan said about the flip side of today's market, “In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners.” :D ~~~~~~~~ Question: Does a buy-and-hold investor who has carefu...
by Johnnie
Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes Virginia, you can lose money in bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 5197

Re: Yes Virginia, you can lose money in bonds

I came of age in the 1970s and am scarred for life regarding bonds. Different times, different issues. What makes me slightly queasy now is this: “These bailouts and subsequent stimuli swelled global government debt, which jumped 75%, to $58 trillion in 2014 from $33 trillion in 2007.” http://www.ma...
by Johnnie
Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 38327

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

Two questions: I've read the thread and VPW wiki and played with its spreadsheet a little. I think I get it, and definitely get the goal of not grossly underspending to the point where one dies with a portfolio that has doubled or more. Is it fair to say the latter challenge is the main focus of VP...
by Johnnie
Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal -> Before retirement Age
Replies: 35
Views: 3728

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal -> Before retirement Age

...Assuming the $30K total SS benefit, my inclination would be to draw $30K from CDs from age 57 to 67, plus a VPW amount from the remaining portfolio each year starting at age 57. I think that is the intent. That's pretty much what I'm looking at for the bridge years between leaving work and start...
by Johnnie
Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: should my emergency fund be part of my cash AA?
Replies: 8
Views: 616

Re: should my emergency fund be part of my cash AA?

There was some recent research to the effect that for some people, having a big fat bank account balance just makes them more happy, even if they know all the things Bogleheads know. There was a brief discussion about it here, and one of the highly informed regulars opined that if you are one of tho...
by Johnnie
Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower
Replies: 72
Views: 8491

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower

My reaction to things like this is: It's mainly a plan for keeping high numbers on your mutual fund statements, and not really about living the good life* in a safe and secure retirement. I have a weakness for the former myself, but will resist it because I think the latter should be more important....
by Johnnie
Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 38327

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

Does this make sense? My goal is to retire at 66, use Cut-Throat's Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62 method to bridge the SS at 70 gap, and use the 4% SWR during those bridge years to mitigate bad sequence of returns risk. Then at age 70 shift to a 5% variable withdrawal rat...
by Johnnie
Sun Sep 03, 2017 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 4184
Views: 1114697

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Heh-heh - Last week Josh Brown reminded readers of this January 12, 2016 'RBS Warns: Sell Everything' call:

The Dumbest Call of the Era

Well that was certainly "actionable." :twisted: :oops:
by Johnnie
Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 38327

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

This is the main point in the Kitces work. That by merely taking 4%, you are insuring against exactly that...a big drop in the early years. So, yes, if the market crashes in half, you can continue taking your original 4%, plus inflation, even though it's not actually 6 of 7% of your original balanc...
by Johnnie
Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is Always Risky
Replies: 42
Views: 3543

Re: The Stock Market Is Always Risky

I don't anchor on the starting value of my portfolio because I wouldn't know how to define it (When you invest a little per year for over 30 years - how do you define "start"). I could look at dollars I put in and take out an inflation component - but why bother? I just look at goals and current va...