Search found 4147 matches

by JoMoney
Sun Jun 25, 2017 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon Buys Whole Foods
Replies: 103
Views: 10183

Re: Amazon Buys Whole Foods

100+ Years ago Sears and Roebuck was a catalog company selling at bargain prices and taking advantage of the railroads transforming the nation. In 1925 they started moving into retail outlets, eventually growing into one of the largest companies out there. Today people question if there will be a fu...
by JoMoney
Sun Jun 25, 2017 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Pours In = Diminishing Returns?
Replies: 7
Views: 1656

Re: Money Pours In = Diminishing Returns?

...If an active strategy was 35% of the market. Tanksville!! ... I don't think it's quite as bad as " Tanksville!! " might imply, but it would make it likely that the strategy itself would be moving the market, it would be 'the market' (or more than 1/3rd of it).... and over time the fees...
by JoMoney
Sun Jun 25, 2017 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% of portfolio balance a better SWR than 3-4% inflation-adjusted?
Replies: 26
Views: 2376

Re: 5% of portfolio balance a better SWR than 3-4% inflation-adjusted?

This is what PortfolioVisualizer shows for its Monte Carlo Simulation on a 5% of Balance withdrawal 4% of Balance withdrawal In the PV links, if you scroll down to the bottom chart showing inflation adjusted "Present Dollars" of annual withdrawal amounts I think the general downward slope ...
by JoMoney
Sat Jun 24, 2017 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 52
Views: 3926

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

On the other hand, if international stocks have different risks, expenses, and tax implications than domestic... Maybe it's not a 'free lunch'. Investing in U.S. stocks outside my home state involves different risks, expenses, and tax implications... so maybe I should stick to my own state. Maybe.....
by JoMoney
Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 52
Views: 3926

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

As far as currency risk goes, betting on a fair coin toss at even money odds is something that should avoided. If the risk was looked at as a probabilistic scenario, the math of the Kelly Criterion would show this. If you had liabilities that were denominated in foreign currency though, maybe it doe...
by JoMoney
Fri Jun 23, 2017 6:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 52
Views: 3926

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

John Rekenthaler wrote an interesting piece over at Morningstar with a different view addressing the valuations presented in the "Home Bias Blues" article

Have U.S Stocks Become Too Expensive?
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/ ... ?id=813493
by JoMoney
Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 52
Views: 3926

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

If diversification is the only free lunch in investing...

On the other hand, if international stocks have different risks, expenses, and tax implications than domestic... Maybe it's not a 'free lunch'.
by JoMoney
Sat Jun 17, 2017 5:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else gotten totally bored with investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 8450

Re: Anyone else gotten totally bored with investing?

I still find it entertaining to watch Jim Cramer and CNBC, read financial 'news', read annual reports, banter on message boards, ....and take absolutely no action on any of it.
by JoMoney
Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: iShares Core MSCI World is deviating from benchmark. Why?
Replies: 3
Views: 361

Re: iShares Core MSCI World is deviating from benchmark. Why?

Is it possible the "cash" is offset by a levered futures/options/derivatives investment?
In US based funds it's not uncommon to see an index fund with something like a 105% position invested in the index with a portion of it 'synthetic' with derivatives along with a 5% cash holding.
by JoMoney
Wed Jun 14, 2017 3:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fisher says Mutual Funds are Risky
Replies: 32
Views: 2278

Re: Fisher says Mutual Funds are Risky

Personally, I don't see the idea of having a portfolio of individual stocks, even in a managed account, as being bad in itself. But I would not want a manager who traded frequently or charged high fees. Fisher investments charges between 1% to 1.5% of AUM, which is pretty typical for that type of se...
by JoMoney
Tue Jun 13, 2017 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 11947

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

^ uhh.... so from my read of that above chart, it would seem to confirm direct investment in the Chinese market was actually a poor decision relative to gaining the exposure through other markets with exposure http://ei.marketwatch.com//Multimedia/2015/08/19/Photos/ZH/MW-DS526_sp_reg_20150819104334...
by JoMoney
Mon Jun 12, 2017 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 11947

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

By investing in SP500 index fund aren't we investing in EM and global markets also since most of the 500 companies have overseas presence? So they are benefiting from any overseas growth. Am I wrong with this assumption? I know it is not the same as buying Samsung stock but if Caterpillar has big p...
by JoMoney
Mon Jun 12, 2017 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 11947

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

Here's a chart of the MSCI Vietnam index since 2006
... it did not escape 2008 unscathed...
by JoMoney
Mon Jun 12, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are cap weighted indexes superior to float adjusted methodology
Replies: 7
Views: 721

Re: Are cap weighted indexes superior to float adjusted methodology

A non float adjusted index would not really be representative of the market of stocks available to investors to own. It is a point sometimes spoken of to try and deride the strategy of indexing, often pointing to the public float adjusted vs full market-cap index price and a slight variation where t...
by JoMoney
Mon Jun 12, 2017 3:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 11947

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

Maybe he means that US businesses will take over the world and eventually put all the others out of business. :D It would be interesting to distinguish a "US Business" separately from a "multinational business that trades on a US exchange". I don't see how the first could possib...
by JoMoney
Mon Jun 12, 2017 2:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 11947

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

I follow the advice of Mr.Bogle as far as international just not being necessary. Personally, if I were to add international I don't think I'd sleep well holding Emerging Markets, and I'd be more likely to hold a developed fund... but I don't see any benefit coming from that. It's interesting that i...
by JoMoney
Sat Jun 10, 2017 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend ETF
Replies: 13
Views: 1118

Re: Dividend ETF

I would see the downsides as - Potential for buying into a 'hot' area of the market at the wrong time, as a lot of people seem to be reaching for income - Further diversification and lower expenses available in broad market funds - Changes in the taxation of dividends , while currently the same as c...
by JoMoney
Sat Jun 10, 2017 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why
Replies: 101
Views: 7278

Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Alphabet Inc. is my second largest holding (at least in aggregate with A shares and C shares). Seems like a fine company to me. They're definitely the leader in some areas, but my impression was that they are an underdog to Amazon in cloud services. The balance sheet show something like $92 billion ...
by JoMoney
Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio
Replies: 15
Views: 2315

Re: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio

Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF (VIOV) as of 04/30/2017 Price/earnings ratio 146.0x Vanguard Russell 2000 Value ETF (VTWV) as of 04/30/2017 Price/earnings ratio 116.5x iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF as of 07-Jun-2017 P/E Ratio 19.37 *i *i..."Negative P/E ratios are excluded f...
by JoMoney
Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio
Replies: 15
Views: 2315

Re: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio

... Small cap value doesn't include stocks with negative or zero earnings so that is irrelevant. They are in Vanguard's small value index fund. They may not be the most prominent companies, but they're easy enough to find if you start at the bottom of the list Cloudera Inc EPS (TTM) -5.14 NCS Multi...
by JoMoney
Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio
Replies: 15
Views: 2315

Re: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio

... Small cap value doesn't include stocks with negative or zero earnings so that is irrelevant. They are in Vanguard's small value index fund. They may not be the most prominent companies, but they're easy enough to find if you start at the bottom of the list Cloudera Inc EPS (TTM) -5.14 NCS Multi...
by JoMoney
Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio
Replies: 15
Views: 2315

Re: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio

I wonder if that is a typo. Vanguard says the price/book is 1.9. When I look at Fidelity's ETF report for VBR, I see 19.6 as the P/E ratio. Morningstar does the P/E on "prospective" eps and shows 17.7, the same as the benchmark. There can be considerable differences in how different calcu...
by JoMoney
Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio
Replies: 15
Views: 2315

Re: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio

This is according to the Vanguard website. Is that right? It doesn't feel very "valuey" right now. Does anyone have the historical P/E ratio of the fund? Vanguard is pretty awesome about including "Portfolio Characteristics" data like P/E in their annual reports. You can look up...
by JoMoney
Tue Jun 06, 2017 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P 600 vs. CRSP Small Cap Index
Replies: 5
Views: 549

Re: S&P 600 vs. CRSP Small Cap Index

FWIW, Here's a growth chart comparing the "CRSP US Small Cap TR" to "S&P SmallCap 600 TR" Morningstar Chart I am not a tilt'er or factor investor, but if your goal is to target a certain exposure to the "small" factor, it seems to me that if you simply owned more of...
by JoMoney
Tue Jun 06, 2017 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Manifesting Your Riches?
Replies: 20
Views: 1907

Re: Manifesting Your Riches?

I believe having a focus, and being disciplined about spending less than I earn is key to acquiring wealth. I think it's more pragmatic, making decisions that work towards the goal. It's not likely to have occurred without the goal in mind, but I don't believe there's any mystical quality about it....
by JoMoney
Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Manifesting Your Riches?
Replies: 20
Views: 1907

Re: Manifesting Your Riches?

I believe having a focus, and being disciplined about spending less than I earn is key to acquiring wealth.
I think it's more pragmatic, making decisions that work towards the goal. It's not likely to have occurred without the goal in mind, but I don't believe there's any mystical quality about it.
by JoMoney
Tue Jun 06, 2017 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market Data
Replies: 14
Views: 919

Re: Stock Market Data

Does anyone know if there is a way to find FREE SP500 or total stock market data for the last 100 years? Preferably not inflation adjusted. I am looking for Index Price, Dividend Yield and EPS to be specific. The Shiller data linked above is probably the best source... but keep in mind much of it g...
by JoMoney
Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle Values the Market, 1928-2016
Replies: 29
Views: 2490

Re: Mr. Bogle Values the Market, 1928-2016

It is practically a tautology. The return will always be that of combining the fundamental growth and the price multiple. We know the price multiple and the growth change over different periods... but despite knowing that they will converge and diverge, while always combining for the total return, w...
by JoMoney
Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I trail my bogy by 31 percentage points"
Replies: 26
Views: 4194

Re: "I trail my bogy by 31 percentage points"

Her experience mimics what mine was when I was trying to maintain an individual stock portfolio - it's not substantially different then what the broad market returned.... and undoubtedly, the broad market return is what all investors will get in aggregate (minus costs). I gave up trying to manage an...
by JoMoney
Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market Data
Replies: 14
Views: 919

Re: Stock Market Data

Does anyone know if there is a way to find FREE SP500 or total stock market data for the last 100 years? Preferably not inflation adjusted. I am looking for Index Price, Dividend Yield and EPS to be specific. The Shiller data linked above is probably the best source... but keep in mind much of it g...
by JoMoney
Fri Jun 02, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Balanced index fund holder - do I need intl?
Replies: 52
Views: 3150

Re: Balanced index fund holder - do I need intl?

Mr Bogle made the most incisive comment about international in a video about a year ago ... .. be sure of your own reasons for whatever allocation you have to international, zero or higher. Listen but ultimately you have to know why you own what you do ... :thumbsup In all seriousness, I think your...
by JoMoney
Fri Jun 02, 2017 3:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is Flagship membership status worth a $50 [transaction] fee?
Replies: 40
Views: 5204

Re: Is Flagship membership status worth a $50 one time fee?

Not to me. Flagship doesn't offer any services or features I would use. I could imagine, maybe, using a VanguardAdvantage account to consolidate financial services even more to just using Vanguard, but I can get the same services (perhaps better) through a Capital One 360 checking account, for free ...
by JoMoney
Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Predicted 4% return over next decade. What do you do now?
Replies: 71
Views: 6616

Re: Predicted 4% return over next decade. What do you do now?

What do I do now? Same thing I would do if the prediction was 2% or 8%. <sigh> It seems almost unreal that 10 years ago we were getting over 5% on our money market funds. Now we're wondering if 4% is an unreasonable expectation for the next 10 years in equities... and people think this is a "bu...
by JoMoney
Tue May 30, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about paper currency
Replies: 12
Views: 892

Re: Question about paper currency

They would be counterfeiters, just like all the other counterfeiters. ... :thumbsup Banks create money, and when they create it, it should be balanced on their books with an asset of comparable value (or at least believed to be). If the U.S. government wants $100 mil, they go to their bank and ask ...
by JoMoney
Tue May 30, 2017 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Four Timeless Lessons" by Mark Hulbert
Replies: 8
Views: 2362

Re: "Four Timeless Lessons" by Mark Hulbert

... Mr. Ferri had a great graph in Power of Passive Investing (excellent book BTW for those who like the active vs. passive argument) that shines a real IN VITRO study on active vs. passive. As most know Mr. Bogle kept some sort of record of all the equity funds that were present when he started wh...
by JoMoney
Sun May 28, 2017 11:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Priceline for car rental
Replies: 22
Views: 2564

Re: Priceline for car rental

+2 (or whatever we're up to) for autoslash.com As long as you're not opposed to renting from a second tier car rental company (i.e. Dollar, SIXT, Thrifty, Payless) Sometimes they do come through with great rates on the major companies (i.e. Avis, Budget, National) but if you want the best rates you ...
by JoMoney
Sun May 28, 2017 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 74
Views: 6160

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

It seems logical that if you have a big enough portfolio, you can logically do better by creating your own index of individual stocks with a buy and hold mentality with activist moments for tax loss harvesting plus substitution. The advantages: Save the management fee (so on a 2.5 million dollar st...
by JoMoney
Sun May 28, 2017 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Best Account for International Equities
Replies: 42
Views: 3860

Re: The Best Account for International Equities

If you have otherwise simple taxes with no reason to itemize deductions and lose your standard deduction, the reason to put international in taxable would be if you hope to take the 'Foreign Tax Credit' instead of the foreign tax deduction. The credit though, seems to have maximum of $300 (or $600 j...
by JoMoney
Sun May 28, 2017 3:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Employer 401k disappeared from Fidelity
Replies: 8
Views: 1008

Re: Employer 401k disappeared from Fidelity

The site goes down for maintenance every week around this time... nothing unusual.
by JoMoney
Fri May 26, 2017 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Death of the Stock Split? (WSJ)
Replies: 14
Views: 2425

Re: Death of the Stock Split? (WSJ)

Vanguard Fan 1367 wrote:I guess cutting and pasting the article is not an option to help those of us who do not subscribe? Copyright infringement? :?:

http://archive.is/P37Gd
by JoMoney
Fri May 26, 2017 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are middle-aged breadwinners getting a raw deal?
Replies: 20
Views: 2875

Re: Are middle-aged breadwinners getting a raw deal?

It sounds to me like you're envious of your spouse/kids situation, Charlie Munger says envy is the worst of the seven deadly sins, you make yourself miserable, and the other party doesn't even know. It's not in the least bit constructive. At least with the other 'sins' there's a bit of fun in it. Yo...
by JoMoney
Fri May 26, 2017 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I fax or email bank info?
Replies: 18
Views: 1211

Re: Should I fax or email bank info?

Either should be fine. I'll note that some people go through great pains to keep their data off of the Internet, and don't realize that the other party they're passing it to is digitizing and then storing it in on a connected system. Many big companies have moved to "Unified Communications"...
by JoMoney
Fri May 26, 2017 3:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I really pay no capital gains on $100k?
Replies: 31
Views: 5942

Re: Can I really pay no capital gains on $100k?

How much stock would you be selling that has $100k in capital gains? What is the cost basis? You could potentially sell $100k in stocks where $50k was your cost, and $50k in gains would be taxed at 0% You'd need to speak with a tax professional, but I'm guesstimating $100k - $50k basis = $50k of cap...
by JoMoney
Thu May 25, 2017 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 74
Views: 6160

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

... OK, fair enough. You make some good points. But, keep in mind that I am comparing the expected long-term returns of various investments. No doubt, there will be portfolios and investments of all kinds that will outperform a Boglehead portfolio in the short term. But, will those investments outp...
by JoMoney
Thu May 25, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 74
Views: 6160

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

Simple question: Is a passive, low-cost, diversified index portfolio* really the best bet to achieve the highest possible risk-adjusted, long-term returns anywhere? How do you know this? * total stock, total bond, total int'l (optional: small-cap value, REITs and TIPS) No, it will not have the high...
by JoMoney
Thu May 25, 2017 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are all markets efficient?
Replies: 28
Views: 1608

Re: Are all markets efficient?

... manager claiming to have beat the SP500 over X years may not have beaten an index customized to their actual factor exposure over those years... I'm not sure "factors" make for a good strategy to try and chase higher returns, but I do think they're useful for analyzing funds in hindsi...
by JoMoney
Thu May 25, 2017 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are all markets efficient?
Replies: 28
Views: 1608

Re: Are all markets efficient?

If you had confidence in the "factor" models, somehow I don't think that's consistent with buying an actively managed fund... I would think you would be looking at different factors based on the manager and your assessment of their judgement and methodology if you were looking for active m...
by JoMoney
Thu May 25, 2017 2:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg hit piece - Vanguard's Irritating Perch on the Moral High Ground
Replies: 46
Views: 6292

Re: Bloomberg hit piece - Vanguard's Irritating Perch on the Moral High Ground

<SARCASM> The author convinced me, being irritated is the right response... I'm going to cancel all policies with mutual insurance companies and close my credit union accounts </SARCASM> Just another sign of their success... No one ever kicks a dead dog. Vanguard beat the mutual fund industry. Vangu...
by JoMoney
Wed May 24, 2017 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are risk factors just ways to take on additional risk?
Replies: 28
Views: 1305

Re: Are risk factors just ways to take on additional risk?

... Your return will be defined by both what those shares earn for investors AND the price you paid for those shares. Company A can be less profitable per share over the long run than Company B, but investors in Company A shares can still do better if the price they paid for those shares was lower ...
by JoMoney
Wed May 24, 2017 4:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American Funds beat out Vanguard Index over lifetime?
Replies: 63
Views: 7309

Re: American Funds beat out Vanguard Index over lifetime?

Vanguard Total Market Admiral: $32,291, CAGR 15.1% American Funds New Economy: $34,757, CAGR 16.12% American Funds New Economy has a significant growth tilt relative to the total market, and the portfolio management strategy is focused on companies with new innovation potential, which generally are...

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