Search found 3780 matches

by JoMoney
Sun Feb 26, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inspired by Buffett's bet: New 20 years bets?
Replies: 2
Views: 424

Re: Inspired by Buffett's bet: New 20 years bets?

The thing about investing "bets", is we can (and many of us do) put our money where are mouth is by investing our portfolio accordingly. We don't need a side bet on the outcome. I was thinking about US Stock vs World ex US, what would the yard stick for this be? Would you use a U.S. mutual...
by JoMoney
Sun Feb 26, 2017 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much are independent contractors really taxed?
Replies: 43
Views: 2231

Re: How much are independent contractors really taxed?

... Several things don't add up here. First, if you were working a day job and were in the 25% bracket, and in CA, most likely, you were going to hit the FICA limit and didn't need to pay the 15%. This was several years ago, so the numbers are slightly different, but here goes with the current tax ...
by JoMoney
Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much are independent contractors really taxed?
Replies: 43
Views: 2231

Re: How much are independent contractors really taxed?

When I was living in California, I was looking at doing some part time work as an independent contractor in addition to my normal day job that already put me at the top of the 25% federal tax bracket. For each additional dollar I earned it would have been 25% Federal Tax + 15% Self Employment (FICA...
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 25, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Source of the Small Value Premium
Replies: 11
Views: 666

Re: Source of the Small Value Premium

...Small companies have a lot more room to grow than large companies for one... This can be misleading, as you can have a software company valued at tens of billions of dollars (by market-cap) that has huge potential to grow it's market share and profits. Compared to say, a real estate or utility c...
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 25, 2017 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Source of the Small Value Premium
Replies: 11
Views: 666

Re: Source of the Small Value Premium

How do you suppose that the market capitalization of a companies stock relates to them being " small enough to be truly innovative and disruptive " ? Market capitalization is tied to the value of the company, or at least the portion of the company that is floated in the stock market, not i...
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett Annual Letter 2016 [Jack Bogle is a hero]
Replies: 61
Views: 3809

Re: Buffett Annual Letter 2016 [Jack Bogle is a hero]

I think Buffett's bet seems like almost a cinch when considering the extreme costs and expenses the hedge funds have to overcome, let alone the difficulty of finding genuine 'skill' in allocating money... I find Paul Merriman's attempt at a bet , a more challenging proposition. Primarily, because I ...
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 25, 2017 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bogleheads' Philosophy a Generalization?
Replies: 50
Views: 2297

Re: Bogleheads' Philosophy a Generalization?

... I see funds that have been consistently beating the index. Doesn't mean they will do that tomorrow. I see funds' performance move slowly, I have a tax advantaged account. I don't think I can "beat the market" other than make adjustments as needed. Why not try with some % of the portfo...
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 25, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett Annual Letter 2016 [Jack Bogle is a hero]
Replies: 61
Views: 3809

Re: Buffett Annual Letter 2016 [Jack Bogle is a hero]

Great stuff. I hope his accolades for Mr.Bogle leads to more interviews of Mr.Bogle, giving him the opportunity further spread the gospel of simple low-cost investing. Maybe when people stop looking at trading stocks and active management as some path to higher returns, they'll start looking behind ...
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 24, 2017 6:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much are independent contractors really taxed?
Replies: 43
Views: 2231

Re: How much are independent contractors really taxed?

When I was living in California, I was looking at doing some part time work as an independent contractor in addition to my normal day job that already put me at the top of the 25% federal tax bracket. For each additional dollar I earned it would have been 25% Federal Tax + 15% Self Employment (FICA/...
by JoMoney
Thu Feb 23, 2017 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P at 22 times multiple
Replies: 40
Views: 4511

Re: S&P at 22 times multiple

I am firm believer in reversion to the mean. I know wall street has given stocks the trump bump in hopes of lower taxes and less regulation. Based on historical norms the market is way over valued I wonder how long it will take till market reverts back to the mean a sell off must be coming soon i s...
by JoMoney
Thu Feb 23, 2017 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffets Bet almost over
Replies: 7
Views: 2498

Re: Warren Buffets Bet almost over

Interesting that the WSJ would publish that just now. The bet is not over for another 10+ months. However, I'd like to read the article too if if it can be linked. Various news outlets usually mention it once a year or so, this time of year is popular because Buffett will soon release his letter to...
by JoMoney
Thu Feb 23, 2017 5:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: behavior and bogleheads wiki page on passively owning individual stocks
Replies: 10
Views: 820

Re: behavior and bogleheads wiki page on passively owning individual stocks

... My source for that would be personal experience... +2 I saw (in myself) all kinds behavioral problems while trying to maintain an individual stock portfolio, not only from the feeling the need to monitor the portfolio/companies and trading, but also in my regular day to day stuff. At one point,...
by JoMoney
Thu Feb 23, 2017 4:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why TBM (total bond market)?
Replies: 17
Views: 2248

Re: Why TBM (total bond market)?

TBM has simplicity, low cost, and broad diversification among different investment grade bonds at different maturities. But its average effective duration is about 6 years... seems to me this is closer to something comparable to a bond ladder going out about 12 years. If you're looking at a bond lad...
by JoMoney
Thu Feb 23, 2017 4:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard opens special offices for $1 million clients
Replies: 63
Views: 9247

Re: Vanguard opens special offices for $1 million clients

I'd like to join the club, but I'm afraid the free coffee and donuts will probably be gone by the time I get there. Remember an advertising campaign a few years ago where Vanguard was offering cups of coffee? [I don't think it was during the Bogle era] It wasn't free, but I remember reading about t...
by JoMoney
Wed Feb 22, 2017 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard opens special offices for $1 million clients
Replies: 63
Views: 9247

Re: anguard opens special offices for $1 million clients

Interesting... Although personally, I've never even called Vanguard on the phone. Everything has been accomplished online or in the mail. Unless they're going to offer a place where I can make cash deposits, medallion signature guarantees on securities, or free coffee/pastries while I chat with a re...
by JoMoney
Wed Feb 22, 2017 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reconciling history of nominal GDP vs. S&P 500 return
Replies: 16
Views: 1858

Re: Reconciling history of nominal GDP vs. S&P 500 return

-Business is financed by equity and debt, the amount of leverage and interest rates can impact growth rates -Stock market only values publicly traded firms/business, GDP includes private and especially government enterprises that may be growing at a much slower rate -Multi-national companies may rea...
by JoMoney
Wed Feb 22, 2017 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 197
Views: 11830

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

... If the permabear HUssman is so confident (including the timing for crash) how have his funds trailed so badly? Is he not able to short aggressively in his funds? or does he just talk but not actually follow through?... He short sells the market very aggressively. Hussman Strategic Growth HSGFX ...
by JoMoney
Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?
Replies: 104
Views: 6970

Re: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?

... If I look at this graph, and then compare the mid 80s oil bust to what we've seen in recent years, it looks like we're in for another 5-10 years of sideways equity markets before a massive bull run like we saw in the 90s!!!! :mrgreen: :mrgreen: Excellent news for a younger accumulater. Interest...
by JoMoney
Tue Feb 21, 2017 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?
Replies: 104
Views: 6970

Re: For people who think the market is going to crash, where along the continuum are we?

...Really interesting. What is the source of that graph? It's hyperlinked to the source if you click on it (Ibbotson SBBI @ Morningstar). I just cropped it, put it into Google Docs, changed the color balance, added a line that matched peak to peak then duplicated for a line to put on the trough-to-...
by JoMoney
Tue Feb 21, 2017 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 197
Views: 11830

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

OP, I'm glad you found an allocation you're comfortable with, and the best time to decide that you're taking more risk then you're comfortable with is when prices are hitting new highs. As far as tactical allocations though, it's ridiculous to believe investors as a group can 'sell high - buy low' a...
by JoMoney
Tue Feb 21, 2017 3:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are the big things to get right?
Replies: 58
Views: 6266

Re: What are the big things to get right?

I'm going to flip it around, and point out that it might be worth while to focus on avoiding the 'big things' people get wrong. People have made fortunes in securities, real estate, and elsewhere, but lost it all being leveraged up. People lose out on even the markets average return by trying to tim...
by JoMoney
Mon Feb 20, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long term treasury ? Pros and Cons
Replies: 15
Views: 967

Re: Long term treasury ? Pros and Cons

For me, bonds are for money I expect to be there when I need it, essentially for short-term emergencies. This pretty much limits me to short-term bonds of the highest investment grade, preferably guaranteed by the government. There is no promise, and there's no way of knowing, that longer term bonds...
by JoMoney
Sun Feb 19, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Chromebook experts?
Replies: 13
Views: 1361

Re: Any Chromebook experts?

Not sure if this will work for those amazon video files, but when I've ran into problems with some videos, I was able to play them with an app in the Chromestore called: " H.265 / HEVC player " I've also had some problems fixed (in particular WIndows Media files) by converting the video to...
by JoMoney
Sun Feb 19, 2017 3:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Chromebook experts?
Replies: 13
Views: 1361

Re: Any Chromebook experts?

I use my Chromebook to watch videos quite heavily. I seem to remember watching some on Amazon while I was in a 'trial period' of Amazon Prime. The only issues I've had, and I didn't have the problem on Amazon, was with some downloaded .mp4 video files where the audio was not synced up propperly. I h...
by JoMoney
Sun Feb 19, 2017 3:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 232
Views: 9913

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

petulant wrote:.

All I was trying to do, was understand where your assertion that a 4% SWR required stocks to have 9-10% real return is coming from. I don't see how it does, at least not under the terms of a SWR, which is usually assumed to be 30 years for most studies / simulations I see people discuss.
by JoMoney
Sun Feb 19, 2017 2:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 232
Views: 9913

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

... I'm sorry, but no. Inflation wrecks that. Do you see how inflation would wreck that? You could put the entire balance in TIPS, and you could withdraw 3.3% + CPI for 30 years and the only risk would be of default by the U.S. Treasury. You could actually take more than the 3.3% because there woul...
by JoMoney
Sun Feb 19, 2017 2:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 232
Views: 9913

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

...4% + CPI as SWR assumes something like 9% or 10% real return on stocks or a similar historic average on bonds... Where are you getting that from? The SWR studies i've read/seen all seem to look at a 30 year period. A SWR could be 3% for 30 years without any growth at all. To get a 4%+CPI SWR you...
by JoMoney
Sun Feb 19, 2017 2:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 232
Views: 9913

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

...4% + CPI as SWR assumes something like 9% or 10% real return on stocks or a similar historic average on bonds... Where are you getting that from? The SWR studies i've read/seen all seem to look at a 30 year period. A SWR could be 3% for 30 years without any growth at all. To get a 4%+CPI SWR you...
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 18, 2017 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much do small speculators underperform by?
Replies: 8
Views: 742

Re: How much do small speculators underperform by?

I believe in some studies, they find there are a few investors who do seem to be 'winners', but the vast majority lose. Here's one paper/study: https://www.umass.edu/preferen/You%20Must%20Read%20This/Barber-Odean%202011.pdf It goes over the difficulties in gathering data from individual investors, a...
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 18, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much do small speculators underperform by?
Replies: 8
Views: 742

Re: How much do small speculators underperform by?

There are a few reports out there, although I'm having problems finding the links. Good data is hard to find on individual investors, when you survey most people they all say their super-star traders. Everybody that sits down at the poker table thinks they're above average . Mutual funds are require...
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 18, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 232
Views: 9913

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

Thanks for posting this. I feel the same way, this forum can be overly conservative. Real returns of 0% are just as dangerous as assuming 12%. I'm assuming 4% SWR and I'm sure it will all be ok. You're most welcome. I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks that long-term history is a very good indi...
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 18, 2017 4:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: life insurance vs extended warranties
Replies: 8
Views: 442

Re: life insurance vs extended warranties

It's not bad because companies make money on them, if that was grounds for not buying something we wouldn't buy any commercial goods and services. When people trade though, the idea is that it's win-win, the seller feels they got a good deal at the price they sold (which may include a 'profit'), and...
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charlie Munger's Comments on Index Funds versus "Stock Picking"
Replies: 12
Views: 2128

Re: Charlie Munger's Comments on Index Funds versus "Stock Picking"

...Munger and Buffett are in the interesting position of being outspoken critics of efficient market theory but proponents of the S&P 500 Index fund. Bogle reconciles this by saying it is not about efficient market theory but simply expenses. I don't know how Munger and Buffett see it... Buffet...
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 17, 2017 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charlie Munger's Comments on Index Funds versus "Stock Picking"
Replies: 12
Views: 2128

Re: Charlie Munger on Index Funds

Peculiar_Investor wrote:OP might want to edit the Subject, unless Charline Munger is related somehow to Charlie Munger.

Done.. Thanks.
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 17, 2017 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charlie Munger's Comments on Index Funds versus "Stock Picking"
Replies: 12
Views: 2128

Charlie Munger on Index Funds

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] Several news articles are out with quotes from Charlie Munger at the Daily Journal Annual Meeting. Someone posted a video of it on Youtube, and you can hear the full context of his comments responding to a question on index funds that some here...
by JoMoney
Thu Feb 16, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can we automate Vanguard brokerage ETF purchases?
Replies: 20
Views: 875

Re: Can we automate Vanguard brokerage ETF purchases?

I agree with the other poster, that mutual funds are the way to go if you want to automate purchases, at least you know you'll be getting the close of business NAV price. I have not seen the feature at Vanguard, but there are some brokerages that allow you to purchase stocks and ETF's as regular per...
by JoMoney
Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why own individual stocks?
Replies: 88
Views: 6249

Re: Why own individual stocks?

Despite having heard the arguments for indexing long ago, I tried to maintain a portfolio of individual stocks for awhile. Part of my justification was (at the time) I could argue that it was cheaper than paying the expense ratio on a low cost index fund (I don't remember exactly, but the cheapest E...
by JoMoney
Thu Feb 16, 2017 2:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two-Fund Portfolio Role Call
Replies: 43
Views: 4441

Re: Two-Fund Portfolio Role Call

Equities are all in S&P 500 based index funds (but I have different funds technically, being used in 401k, IRA, and taxable), they will eventually get consolidated to just IRA and taxable (probably at Vanguard). The fixed income side is a bit more jumbled with various cash/bank accounts/savings ...
by JoMoney
Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Dollar Cost averaging is lousy
Replies: 23
Views: 2612

Re: Why Dollar Cost averaging is lousy

I'm going to point back at the legendary Market Timer thread
That was certainly an example where lumping into the market was lousy.
by JoMoney
Wed Feb 15, 2017 6:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stock valuations so high because interest rates are so low?
Replies: 28
Views: 2231

Re: Are stock valuations so high because interest rates are so low?

...are more worried about missing out on the huge rise, capitulating on the up-side.... I love it! Is "capitulating on the up-side" standard terminology or did you invent it? One of the characteristics I think I've noticed reading about bubbles in the past is that they go on so long that ...
by JoMoney
Tue Feb 14, 2017 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stock valuations so high because interest rates are so low?
Replies: 28
Views: 2231

Re: Are stock valuations so high because interest rates are so low?

So much hatred for this bull market, lots of people seem to be looking for an opportunity to time it and jump in on a crash that doesn't come (or is over before you know it) ... I don't think it will end until people give up waiting for the big crash and are more worried about missing out on the hug...
by JoMoney
Tue Feb 14, 2017 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit cards vs. Cash
Replies: 123
Views: 6690

Re: Credit cards vs. Cash

I use a cash-back reward credit card for everything I can. I've heard that people spend less when they use cash, but I don't think that's the case for me. Somehow having cash around seems to encourage me to spend it on things and not keep track of it. I'll pinch pennies when I see the price and payi...
by JoMoney
Tue Feb 14, 2017 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogleheads not the norm?
Replies: 116
Views: 10124

Re: Bogleheads not the norm?

the norm? No... Bogleheads are definitely not "the norm". low income? Sure... but not "the norm". If you search you'll find all kinds of posts about from people discussing their low income and how it relates to their 0% capital gains tax, ACA subsidies, and Roth IRA conversions....
by JoMoney
Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it reasonable to have 100% in the stock market?
Replies: 58
Views: 5801

Re: Is it reasonable to have 100% in the stock market?

I can't tell you if it's reasonable for you, but it sounds reasonable to me as long as you're certain you can stomach it. It certainly sounds more reasonable than being 200% in the market , there's no margin call on a 100% :wink: ... While I cannot give any investor a neat formula for risk control, ...
by JoMoney
Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who would quit playing if they already won?
Replies: 106
Views: 10379

Re: Who would quit playing if they already won?

I don't know what I will do when I actually get there, and I'm not convinced that the market valuation itself wouldn't at some point drive me to be more protective. But at this point though, 60/40 is more conservative then I imagine being for myself, especially considering pension and social securit...
by JoMoney
Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard leaves crumbs for active fund managers
Replies: 21
Views: 2594

Re: Vanguard leaves crumbs for active fund managers

At this rate, Vanguard will eat the world of mutual funds. Am I alone in thinking that investors should consider putting money into index funds from Schwab, Fidelity or Blackrock, at least when they are competitive with Vanguard on price? Is it not good for the industry to have several major fund c...
by JoMoney
Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone have $0 in cash (except for bills), not even an emergency fund?
Replies: 45
Views: 2188

Re: Does anyone have $0 in cash (except for bills), not even an emergency fund?

It helps me sleep at night knowing I could easily cover my living expenses for a prolonged period, or a big 'emergency' without thinking about whether or not the stock market is up or down. But some people do keep $0 in cash, some people run their life at a deficit (even without other assets) gettin...
by JoMoney
Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Passive Style of Index Fund create artificial demand?
Replies: 21
Views: 1263

Re: Does Passive Style of Index Fund create artificial demand?

Do Index Funds create an artificial demand for all the stocks tracked by the index without paying attention to the companies fundamentals? There is a mad craze for index funds lately and I believe it is surest and safest bet anyone can have to achieve best diversification possible and as a result m...
by JoMoney
Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Putting entire 401(k) balance in a single fund
Replies: 14
Views: 1657

Re: Putting entire 401(k) balance in a single fund

I keep enough in cash and government bonds that I sleep well at night, the rest is in S&P500 index funds. A large chunk of that is a single fund in my 401(k). At some point, it will likely get combined into a single fund in my IRA at Vanguard. I can't tell you what you'll be comfortable with, bu...

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