Search found 5209 matches

by JoMoney
Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 171
Views: 10669

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

Ben Mathew wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:08 am
...
The problem with options is that they are not just a bet on long term return, but also a bet on volatility...
Buying deep in the money calls would reduce most of the volatility premium. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deepinthemoney.asp
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Acceptable uses...New Financial Chromebook
Replies: 19
Views: 1775

Re: Acceptable uses...New Financial Chromebook

... I have an excel file that I use for a budget. I have never used google sheets before but is it as simple as uploading my excel file through google sheets? Sorry if this seems like a stupid question haha. Or would I simply just move/copy tabs from my excel file to google sheets? If it's not a co...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 171
Views: 10669

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

... Say I want 120 percent leverage how would I create that with a series of out of money LEAPS? All I could find were either really complicated Wilmott forum type posts or statements about the general theory. I can intuit it but curious about playing with it explicitly... Why "out of money"? I wou...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 171
Views: 10669

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

...Because many retirement accounts (i.e. IRA and 401k plans) don't allow investors to use margin or trade options, a leveraged ETF is one way for an investor to diversify their equity exposure across time... Not recommending it , but most brokerages that offer options (including Vanguard) will all...
by JoMoney
Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 171
Views: 10669

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

From inception to the present, the leveraged not only failed to earn double the earnings of a "straight" S&P mutual fund, it actually earned less than the unleveraged fund. While the unleveraged fund was growing $10,000 to $42,707, ULPIX only grew it to it to $39,356. ULPIX and similar leveraged ET...
by JoMoney
Wed Jul 18, 2018 3:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Receiving 2FA codes from Vanguard while overseas
Replies: 6
Views: 665

Re: Receiving 2FA codes from Vanguard while overseas

Yes. Get a U.S. VOIP number that accepts SMS. Google Voice is free, but you have to set it up in the U.S. (from US IP) with a U.S. number that is active at the time you establish it. After you've established a Google voice number and linked it to a U.S. phone you can disable forwarding to the phone ...
by JoMoney
Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are Credit Cards Actually Convenient?
Replies: 65
Views: 3664

Re: Are Credit Cards Actually Convenient?

I travel frequently, and spend most of my time outside the U.S. It's been my experience that credit cards aren't as universally accepted outside the U.S. but I have never had a credit card declined at a place that accepts credit cards. I have received 'security alert' emails from my credit card to c...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO 7 year forecasts are worse than a toss of a coin
Replies: 15
Views: 1576

Re: GMO 7 year forecasts are worse than a toss of a coin

Sounds about right. Jeremy Grantham is a smart guy, who makes reasonable and persuasive arguments, but he is a perma-bear. Being a cynic sounds smart, but it hasn't paid off very well in the markets. This is old, but in CXO's look at various 'gurus' Grantham didn't fair very well there either https:...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 16, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why own a bed?
Replies: 137
Views: 8673

Re: Why own a bed?

So in Arizona there are scorpions inside the house? That would scare me from living there or even visiting. Depends on where you are at. We live in the NE valley and are surrounded by desert, yes, all houses in our neighborhood have scorpions inside. I would imagine that places with less desert (do...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 16, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unusual asset protection strategies
Replies: 11
Views: 1339

Re: Unusual asset protection strategies

As far as I can tell, there have always been people hyper concerned with asset protection strategies forever, going back to stories about a guy building an ark. Sometimes paranoia is justifiable, sometimes it's not. Doomsday prepping was du jour ten years ago, now it seems people are looking at stra...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 16, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why own a bed?
Replies: 137
Views: 8673

Re: Why own a bed?

You can put a mattress on the ground, but there are things to look out for, such as -Accumulation of dust, mildew if any moisture in the environment, and other potential allergens if not regularly lifted and cleaned -Closer to bugs, mice, other pests -May be colder on hard floors Something I haven't...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 171
Views: 10669

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

All leverages are bad. Our friends at the Wharton School would disagree with this statement. In finance, it is taught that debt can lower a firm's cost of capital , allowing it to be more profitable. This is the reason why companies such as AAPL issue bonds to buy back shares of stocks. They are bo...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the range of expected stock market returns ever been larger than today?
Replies: 15
Views: 1384

Re: Has the range of expected stock market returns ever been larger than today?

Since 1926, historical 20 year periods of real inflation adjusted returns have ranged between 0% (1962 through 1981) and 13% (1980 through 1999) ...incidentally, the returns from 1962-1999 were 7% , and from 1980-2008 were 7% Here are the real inflation adjusted returns over other 20 year periods, t...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I simplify my portfolio and switch from 3 fund to 2 fund portfolio?
Replies: 45
Views: 2032

Re: Should I simplify my portfolio and switch from 3 fund to 2 fund portfolio?

What you're suggesting, is pretty much what I do. Mr. Bogle would likely suggest more bonds than what Warren Buffett suggests, but otherwise recommends that. In my experience, right after I sell something is when it seems to go on a heater outperforming everything else and making me wish I hadn't so...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: many differences in small cap indexes
Replies: 26
Views: 1492

Re: many differences in small cap indexes

Regarding the S&P 600 index, I don't think anyone has mentioned this, but the index was able to avoid a lot of the dot-com carnage around 1999 because it has a requirement that companies in the index have at least three consecutive years of earnings or at least three years of earnings. I believe th...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 171
Views: 10669

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

If you set the "leverage" as a percentage, then it requires rebalancing and suffers what some describe as "volatility drag". By keeping it at a fixed percentage, you might be able to avoid a margin call, but can still run the risk of a bad sequence that diminishes a portfolio to a point where it's t...
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 13, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bond Yielding 9%
Replies: 9
Views: 1198

Re: Treasury Bond Yielding 9%

Over the decade from 1974 to 1985 inflation was 8% annualized.
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 13, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough
Replies: 91
Views: 10762

Re: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough

Maybe... If you saved 20% of your paycheck for 30 years and it compounded at 6% annually you'd have about 20x the 80% of your paycheck you were otherwise living on (after saving 20%).

Save more, live on less, hope for higher returns, and social security...
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thesaurus Help Please
Replies: 12
Views: 684

Re: Thesaurus Help Please

affiliate

11->
confederate
participant
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 13, 2018 3:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Adjusted SPIVA Scorecard
Replies: 1
Views: 242

Risk Adjusted SPIVA Scorecard

Blog Post: http://www.indexologyblog.com/2018/07/09/risk-adjusted-spiva-scorecard-the-evaluation-of-active-managers-performance-through-a-risk-lens/ An interesting SPIVA Scorecard report, linking to it here in case anyone else interested missed it. In particular I found it interesting that on a gros...
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate Investment: Yay or Nay?
Replies: 27
Views: 2004

Re: Real Estate Investment: Yay or Nay?

Seems a bit high, but if it's a high growth area the expectation for some might be in the price appreciation more than the rent. San Francisco saw something like a 12% increase in the first six months of 2018. At that rate, who cares about rent? ... Or even a job... just get into a house and a HELOC...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10342

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

BALLAST Podcast
Bogleheads: ALL About Saving and The-market
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What recent (last ~8 months) events have changed the total US stock market?
Replies: 14
Views: 1303

Re: What recent (last ~8 months) events have changed the total US stock market?

The tax changes didn't take effect until the 2018 fiscal year, which is likely why the record buybacks just this past quarter. I suppose you could also look at the trade situation as adding an air of additional 'uncertainty' to business both in the US and internationally, but it's pretty difficult t...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What recent (last ~8 months) events have changed the total US stock market?
Replies: 14
Views: 1303

Re: What recent (last ~8 months) events have changed the total US stock market?

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 , which potentially increases after-tax margins on US sales, and somewhat incentivizes the repatriation of funds held internationally and may be fueling record levels of stock buybacks https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/10/investing/stock-buybacks-record-tax-cuts/index.h...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Classical Guitar Experts, What's the Name of this Song?
Replies: 4
Views: 699

Re: Classical Guitar Experts, What's the Name of this Song?

Not an expert, but they announce the song before 51:50 as being Opus 130 by Mauro Giuliani
and resembles it being played here: https://youtu.be/3yPE5YfxAUo
by JoMoney
Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7380

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

So what do all of you recommend for AA for US/international? 80/20? In my brokerage, I’m only 11.7% international. I auto invest a good chunk of money each month, which I have set to 75% VTSAX 25% VTIAX. I’m thinking of maybe doing 50/50 for a while as international is supposed to be a better value...
by JoMoney
Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7380

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

International stocks... Higher volatility More explicit risks, in terms of sovereignty issues, currency risk etc.. Higher costs and tax implications For better or worse, it isn't going to track with U.S. benchmark If you recognize all that, and feel compelled that you need some allocation to it for ...
by JoMoney
Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 76
Views: 9987

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

It is a misleading way to state what's going on, but it's not entirely out of line either. The cap-weighted S&P 500 has been outperforming the S&P 500 equal-weighted Morningstar Growth Chart Which on it's own, implies the larger stocks held in larger weights are doing more of the heavy lifting (but ...
by JoMoney
Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 76
Views: 9987

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

Those are the heavy weighted stocks in the top ten... other stocks doing ok too... https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/070116/top-performers-sp-500-year.asp Company Name Ticker Percent Gain Netflix NFLX 103.91% Twitter TWTR 81.88% TripAdvisor Inc. TRIP 61.67% XL Group Ltd XL 59.13% Under...
by JoMoney
Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital One now at 1.75 [Money Market Rate To 1.75% APY]
Replies: 51
Views: 5126

Now at 1.75%

Capital One 360 posted a new Money Market rate, 1.75%
https://www.capitalone.com/bank/savings ... t-account/
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: After-tax contributions to 401(k)?
Replies: 25
Views: 1710

Re: After-tax contributions to 401(k)?

To be clear, I'm not looking for guidance or worried about when or if I decide to convert or rollover my after-tax contributions. I'm happy continuing to make the contributions and having the option to convert if/when I choose to. I was just offering OP my anecdotal preference for why I prefer the a...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock buy backs?
Replies: 13
Views: 610

Re: Stock buy backs?

BigMoneyNoWhammies wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:30 am
you've piqued my interest, what tactics do they now utilize to adjust the options to account for this?
It's not that they "adjust the options", it's that the share-based compensation is accounted for on the balance sheets (along with other payments/expenses).
FASB Topic 718
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18058

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

I think US equities will be down and can almost guarantee that they will be. My reasoning is that it keeps getting posted that this will happen in financial news. Why does this matter? The general population of investors will follow this info and invest accordingly. Herd mentality. Sell off of US e...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: After-tax contributions to 401(k)?
Replies: 25
Views: 1710

Re: After-tax contributions to 401(k)?

Yes, relative to a taxable account you don't have to pay taxes on dividends until you withdraw the money from a retirement account Note, dividends received on the after tax contributions are pre-tax earnings, therefore will be taxed in the future at ordinary income rates. Right, but you get the ben...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: After-tax contributions to 401(k)?
Replies: 25
Views: 1710

Re: After-tax contributions to 401(k)?

I continue to make after-tax contributions to my 401k plan, I have substantial growth on the basis and I'm in no hurry to convert it to Roth (if I ever do). I'm of the opinion that it's not a certainty that my future tax rate/tax rates in retirement will be as high as they are currently. I like tha...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: After-tax contributions to 401(k)?
Replies: 25
Views: 1710

Re: After-tax contributions to 401(k)?

I continue to make after-tax contributions to my 401k plan, I have substantial growth on the basis and I'm in no hurry to convert it to Roth (if I ever do). I'm of the opinion that it's not a certainty that my future tax rate/tax rates in retirement will be as high as they are currently. I like that...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great investment books that are less well known?
Replies: 15
Views: 1295

Re: Great investment books that are less well known?

The Art of Money Getting by P.T. Barnum
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it contradictory to be a Boglehead and have substantial allocation towards SCV?
Replies: 30
Views: 2229

Re: Is it contradictory to be a Boglehead and have substantial allocation towards SCV?

. Yes, that is an example of the conflict between real-world Small Value mutual funds (as Morningstar uses to create it's benchmark) vs. that of an academic reconstructed portfolios (that some argue is fitted to the result they were looking for) PV describes it's Data Sources in the FAQ https://www...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it contradictory to be a Boglehead and have substantial allocation towards SCV?
Replies: 30
Views: 2229

Re: Is it contradictory to be a Boglehead and have substantial allocation towards SCV?

First, the assertion that SCV has under-performed the S&P500 over long time periods is flat-out wrong. There is a small cap premium and a value premium, and these are persistent and pervasive (over long time periods). Look at the data yourself. Not that I'm against SCV, but there are some examples ...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it contradictory to be a Boglehead and have substantial allocation towards SCV?
Replies: 30
Views: 2229

Re: Is it contradictory to be a Boglehead and have substantial allocation towards SCV?

It is in stark contrast with the investing advice of Jack Bogle.
It is inline with the frequent, although controversial, advice offered by many Bogleheads.
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 08, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18058

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

... Invest in real estate. If your property values go up 10% or go down 10%, you won't care since your 10-15% dividend in the form of rental income flows in like a fine brandy 8-) :D :D :D A 10% cap rate can be hard to find in the majority of markets. There are parts of California where purchasing ...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?
Replies: 46
Views: 5083

Re: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?

Isn't the 'fairest' value for equities what the market says it is? I'd say two crashes in 20 years has demolished the utility of EMH for people in or near retirement. I was being sarcastic, but that's hard to convey here. :wink: I agree that the EMH is not nearly as accurate as many seem to believe...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Girls and investing
Replies: 115
Views: 5613

Re: Girls and investing

It depends on the kid. I don't think gender is a factor, but the kids developmental state and the kids interests are a factor. Some 7 year olds barely read, and can't tie their own shoes. Some 8 year olds read at a high school level. Some adults don't have any interest with investing. See if they ha...
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18058

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

The actual economic growth, and the changes in the price multiple (which are anticipating future returns relative to alternative options) will fully explain (in hindsight) the returns between any prior periods of time. Looking forward in time, we have to guess what the actual future economic growth ...
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18058

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Historical_and_expected_returns Bill Bernstein's forecast (in 2014) was for 2% 'real' (inflation adjusted) returns over the next decade ...so far we've had >9% annualized real return over the 4.5 years since In 2002 his 10 year estimate was for 3.5% real, actual 2002-...
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital One now at 1.75 [Money Market Rate To 1.75% APY]
Replies: 51
Views: 5126

Re: Capital One now at 1.60 [Money Market Rate To 1.60% APY]

I'm hoping they'll adjust up soon. They've been pretty good about it (but typically trailing a bit slower). I prefer to keep cash in the bank, but it's not that big of a hassle to move back to my Vanguard settlement account (currently yielding >1.8% )
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"
Replies: 145
Views: 11865

Re: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:06 pm
I'm sorry nedsaid, but the Fed is only the lender of last resort for US banks.
PJW
Well, there was lending to at least some non-US banks
https://www.smh.com.au/world/fed-lifts- ... 18hn8.html
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18058

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

vineviz wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:29 am
... Everyone else dismissing the role of forecasting is, whether they admit it or not, engaging in self-delusion on the way to confirmation bias.
Do you have evidence that paying attention and making changes to investment portfolios based on forecasting has been a good thing for most investors?