Search found 4289 matches

by JoMoney
Sun Oct 22, 2017 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I believe one can beat the market with a simple contrarian strategy. Am I a fool?
Replies: 30
Views: 2936

Re: I believe one can beat the market with a simple contrarian strategy. Am I a fool?

Bonds beat stocks over several large stretches of the past 20 years, just keeping a 60/40 stock-bond mix had almost the same return as being 100% stocks over the period. Flipping a coin would have had a pretty good chance of outperforming an all stock strategy, so it doesn't surprise me that a "cont...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can you do a rollover even if you aren't leaving a job?
Replies: 17
Views: 1367

Re: Can you do a rollover even if you aren't leaving a job?

It depends on your 401k plans rules, which may differ between companies. My employers plan will allow me to take withdrawals and do a roll-over of any after-tax contributions, employer matching, and earnings on those contributions... but all pre-tax contributions and earnings on that has to remain i...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 40
Views: 2655

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

... For about three years now, I have been banging the drums for plain old boring Large Cap Value. Relative valuations look very good against Large Cap Growth. I was right in 2016 but 2017 has reverted back to a Large Cap Growth market. It is the old being right too early problem.[/color] If you're...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 21, 2017 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 40
Views: 2655

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

Everyone right now seems to think that a crash is imminent. Which makes me wonder if the exact opposite is true. Has the public ever been right about anything market timing related? Is "think the opposite of what everyone else thinks the market's headed" a viable strategy? Generally speaking, I'm w...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 40
Views: 2655

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

Everyone right now seems to think that a crash is imminent. Which makes me wonder if the exact opposite is true. Has the public ever been right about anything market timing related? Is "think the opposite of what everyone else thinks the market's headed" a viable strategy? Generally speaking, I'm w...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401k limit changes being considered- how likely is it and how much of an impact?
Replies: 23
Views: 2041

Re: Lowering 401k limits

This is noise. "There's talk of..." means absolutely nothing. There is a long history of fake news headlines and click bate regarding "proposed" rules that would impact retirement plans. It's a sure fire way to get people excited about nothing, or at least nothing seriously being considered.
by JoMoney
Thu Oct 19, 2017 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best place to invest (*other* than Vanguard)?
Replies: 27
Views: 2356

Re: Best place to invest (*other* than Vanguard)?

I've been happy with Fidelity in the past, still have my 401k with them, used to have other accounts with them.
Charles Schwab and T.Rowe Price are also good as long as you are savvy enough to avoid their more expensive products/services.
by JoMoney
Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u say?
Replies: 45
Views: 2214

Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

acanthurus wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:31 pm
cadreamer2015 wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:15 pm
Is this actionable?
Weekly options expire tomorrow, so yes :)
And the historical anniversary of Black Monday
by JoMoney
Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u say?
Replies: 45
Views: 2214

Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

I would have already been betting on a rise, but under the coercive threat, I would be temporarily stunned at the paradox of the situation about to unfold, where only in America would someone try to threaten me with a gun to bet on the stock market, and only in America would I respond with "Live fre...
by JoMoney
Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon, sometime, maybe later
Replies: 68
Views: 6921

Re: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon

"soon" and "at some point"
Are two very different statements. What was it that was actually said?
by JoMoney
Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3265

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

I ran across this article "Capitalization and Its Discontents" That some in this thread may find interesting... http://www.indexologyblog.com/2017/10/15/capitalization-and-its-discontents ...capitalization weighting turns out to have three characteristics that make it particularly attractive for ind...
by JoMoney
Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Data Security on Cellular Network
Replies: 8
Views: 885

Re: Data Security on Cellular Network

Despite the insecurity of WiFi, if you're connecting to HTTPS websites, like most banks, Vanguard, etc... the data is still pretty darn secure. A hacker might be able to tell who you're communicating with, but the vulnerability in that specific situation is not as huge as some of the security warnin...
by JoMoney
Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rates - What am I missing?
Replies: 2
Views: 357

Re: Interest Rates - What am I missing?

It is done. It's called "carry trade". When exchange rates move, which can happen quickly, you can get crushed.
by JoMoney
Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 87
Views: 12183

Re: Bogle thinks markets are fully valued

... This is so 90's infomercial - I think I'll just make my fortune in Showtime Rotisserie Grills... Worse than infomercial, CNBC used to have a show " The Millionaire Inside ", I vividly remember in 2007 Barbara Corcoran (now famous for Shark Tank) being on the show bragging about having real esta...
by JoMoney
Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Discipline Trumps Distraction
Replies: 3
Views: 999

Re: Larry Swedroe: Discipline Trumps Distraction

Fama-French Large Value "Premium" has been missing for past 35 years
Fama-French Small Value "Premium" MIA past 12 years
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3265

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

I think it's a reasonable question/comparison. There are different ways to mitigate risk, diversification is one way, but it's not unreasonable to believe someone could rationally go through the financial situation of a handful of companies and pick out a few that have substantially lower risk than ...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Liability of phone conversations while my client is driving (and I am not in the car)?
Replies: 64
Views: 3857

Re: Liability of phone conversations while my client is driving (and I am not in the car)?

Depending on circumstances, a accident victim may not win a case, but they could try http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2013/08/27/n-j-court-text-recipients-can-be-held-liable-in-texting-and-driving-accidents/ ...They sued not only the truck’s driver, but also the girl who was texting him. On Tuesday, a st...
by JoMoney
Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone buy long term bonds Now?
Replies: 33
Views: 2868

Re: Why would anyone buy long term bonds?

I can think of two reasons 1.Yield... granted it doesn't look appealing to me at current rates, but there might be someone out there who finds the idea of locking in a sustained guaranteed coupon with no risk to their (nominal) principal as long as they're willing to hold to term. 2. Liability match...
by JoMoney
Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 87
Views: 12183

Re: Bogle thinks markets are fully valued

I don't think it's market timing to take money out because you think you're over exposed in stocks and you want to be in a less risky position. To me, market timing involves selling because you think you'll be able to buy it back later for cheaper. I think there's a subtle yet distinct difference i...
by JoMoney
Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling Tradelines
Replies: 36
Views: 1899

Re: Selling Tradelines

by JoMoney
Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offensive Valuations
Replies: 45
Views: 4130

Re: Offensive Valuations

.. Why in the world would I buy more shares of this "business" (S&P 500) right now, at a multiple of twice the historical average? In fact, why am I not selling a lot of my business to others when I can get a great multiple/price on my business? ... I assume you would be the expert on why you would...
by JoMoney
Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% invested, all in, no cash- how do you do it?
Replies: 42
Views: 3541

Re: 100% invested, all in, no cash- how do you do it?

The easiest way to do it, would be to do all your spending on a credit card and then sell a portion of your assets when it comes time to pay the bill. ...but technically that might be using leverage and putting you above 100% invested most of the time. You could also get into a synthetic leveraged p...
by JoMoney
Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 87
Views: 12183

Re: Bogle thinks markets are fully valued

I don't think it's market timing to take money out because you think you're over exposed in stocks and you want to be in a less risky position. To me, market timing involves selling because you think you'll be able to buy it back later for cheaper. I think there's a subtle yet distinct difference in...
by JoMoney
Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: reliable investment calculator with dividends reinvested
Replies: 7
Views: 601

Re: reliable investment calculator with dividends reinvested

Go to Morningstar.com and lookup a mutual fund and go to the growth chart, which will plot the investment growth of $10,000 between any input dates including dividends for that mutual fund. Once you're on the page with the growth chart for a mutual fund, you can either add in an ETF to that chart to...
by JoMoney
Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SEPP question
Replies: 3
Views: 344

Re: SEPP question

You should discuss this with a tax professional familiar with SEPP, but according to https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/retirement-plans-faqs-regarding-substantially-equal-periodic-payments#4 You may use any interest rate that is not more than 120% of the federal mid-term rate published in IRS rev...
by JoMoney
Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An audience with Jack Bogle:
Replies: 2
Views: 483

Re: An audience with Jack Bogle:

Here's an archived copy of it that others may find more accessible if they get hit by sign-up/pay-wall
http://archive.is/Ttraw
by JoMoney
Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 15543

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

FWIW, looking at valuations as reported in Vanguard annual reports for the S&P 500 fund going back to 12/31/1996, just over 20 years, and on their website for the most recent info, We're only slightly above the 'median' year end P/E and P/B ratios, Dividend yields are higher than the 'median' Growth...
by JoMoney
Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Virtual Private Networks (VPNs)
Replies: 158
Views: 14725

Re: Virtual Private Networks (VPNs)

FYI,
The makers of ProtonMail, which is very hghly regarded for security and privacy, have setup a VPN service https://protonvpn.com/
Even offering a limited 'Free' VPN service level.
by JoMoney
Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 15543

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

How do you beat 3%? Easy, take more risk. Taking on additional "small" and "value" risks hasn't increased returns over the past 13+ years And over the same time period, increasing "market risk" through leverage might have gotten you an extra 2% if you happened to pick just the right amount, but the...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 15543

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

Generally, when all the experts predict that stocks won't earn any more money.....they do. A lot!!! 8-) Bogle isn't usually among the ranks of the bears, but the bears are usually the most vocal, and the most frequently wrong. Whatever the market does, it seems to do what nobody thinks is going to ...
by JoMoney
Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 15543

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

His prediction in the video (from last year) was for the next "decade" not "decades".
by JoMoney
Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone go 100% Ally or another online bank for all banking needs?
Replies: 61
Views: 5006

Re: Anyone go 100% Ally or another online bank for all banking needs?

How do the 100%-online people handle cash deposits? I don't deal with cash to often, but have visited casinos while on vacation and actually left with more than I could (wanted) to spend before returning home. Trying to figure out what to do with wads of cash is a nice problem to have :wink: In som...
by JoMoney
Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?
Replies: 45
Views: 4711

Re: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?

Warren Buffett was interviewed again recently, he reiterated what he's been saying for several years now, that with interest rates this low he'd rather own stocks... the question though, is what will interest rates be several years from now ...????...
https://youtu.be/BXrYDGPUSF4
by JoMoney
Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?
Replies: 200
Views: 14816

Re: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?

As a mutual fund owner, especially via broad market low cost index funds, I see little need to look at dividends as anything but a tax consideration. If I was stock picking, I think there is information/signal in dividends that deserves consideration when selecting stocks, but not in my spending nee...
by JoMoney
Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds
Replies: 64
Views: 7390

Re: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds

...the extraordinary circumstances from the 2008-2009 financial crisis froze up the credit markets in a way that we may not see again in our lifetimes... We can hope, but it seems to me the consolidation of financial institutions, and proliferation of various types of derivative financial products,...
by JoMoney
Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds
Replies: 64
Views: 7390

Re: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds

...The following chart shows Tbills which were (I believe) 1 month Tbills... Yes, it's 30 day Tbills ... which would be very comparable to something like a money market account. Here's a link to the same chart using data at Morningstar that can be adjusted to look at different specific start/stop t...
by JoMoney
Tue Oct 03, 2017 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Long-Term Corporate Bonds (e.g. VBLTX) so Unpopular?
Replies: 15
Views: 2207

Re: Why Long-Term Corporate Bonds (e.g. VBLTX) so Unpopular?

If I wanted certainty that the money would be their some 15-30 years out, I'd rather have the assurances of a government bond.
If I was willing to assume a companies credit risk for 15-30 years, I'd rather have an equity stake.
by JoMoney
Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16309

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

WanderingDoc wrote:
Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:33 am
... Owning more real estate is always better than stock or MFs. ...
I can't seem to find a link/source for it now, but I read about a $10 million lottery winner who went to being in debt several million after having "invested" most of it in leveraged up real estate prior to the financial crisis.
by JoMoney
Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16309

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

Hypothetically speaking if someone was part of the 3 comma club would you still recommend index funds? At that point you'd be paying 400k per year just to have your funds indexed. Might as well just buy stock at that point. At Vanguard, you'd have the option to use institutional funds with even low...
by JoMoney
Sat Sep 30, 2017 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Reading articles on subscription sites
Replies: 2
Views: 303

Re: Reading articles on subscription sites

Some sites put "cookies" on your computer when you visit, the cookie allows them to set information on your computer about the history of your previous visits, and will only allow you so many free articles each month. I find this happens to me when viewing New York Times articles. If I clear my cook...
by JoMoney
Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which # by market cap is the smallest S&P 500 constituent?
Replies: 3
Views: 734

Re: Which # by market cap is the smallest S&P 500 constituent?

Not exactly an answer to your question, but related, would be to compare the Russell 2500 index (ETF SMMD) which is the Russell 3000 minus the top 500 by market cap. If I compare SMMD (Russell 2500) to IVV (S&P500) with a portfolio overlap checking tool like: https://www.etfresearchcenter.com/tools/...
by JoMoney
Thu Sep 28, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?
Replies: 204
Views: 14689

Re: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?

...So, it turns out that we are not normal. We look for bargains and we found them. But, others don't do that... Economics purported " rational agent " is not the norm. http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2015/10/22/why-free-markets-make-fools-us/ (a good article on Robert Shiller's book: Phishing for ...
by JoMoney
Thu Sep 28, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances released
Replies: 4
Views: 859

2016 Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances released

The 2016 Fed Survey of Consumer Finances was released, it gets updated every 3 years. Lots of interesting data for people who like to see/compare what the 'average' American's finances look like:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scfindex.htm
by JoMoney
Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3972
Views: 1059153

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

These bull runs can be bitter sweet. How many new highs can we hit before a something drags us down? :greedy :shock:
by JoMoney
Tue Sep 26, 2017 4:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the investment scenario changing for individual investors due to increase in privatization?
Replies: 24
Views: 2199

Re: Is the investment scenario changing for individual investors due to increase in privatization?

Yes, the marketplace of public companies changes over time.
If private equity will pay more for companies than what they're being offered for publicly, then they will be taken private, and vice-versa with taking them public when the market is hotter there... That's what investment banks do
by JoMoney
Sat Sep 23, 2017 11:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Expert's Dilemma - How can I know I'm getting a good physician without being one myself?
Replies: 125
Views: 8438

Re: The Expert's Dilemma - How can I know I'm getting a good physician without being one myself?

Not a doctor, but I'll point to this:
Consumer Reports: How to find the right surgeon

When it comes to "experts" I prefer experience and high rates of success/accuracy to credentials/education or agreeableness/likable personality.
by JoMoney
Sat Sep 23, 2017 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The real impacts of passive investing
Replies: 8
Views: 1989

Re: The real impacts of passive investing

... - Decreased market volatility. As there is lower trading associated with a larger percent of the market, market volatility (qualitatively described for this purpose as noise around the mean) should get lower. Of course, there will continue to be perturbations to the system: world events, curren...
by JoMoney
Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens if... [trying to understand public debt in the age of fiat currency]
Replies: 6
Views: 830

Re: What happens if... [trying to understand public debt in the age of fiat currency]

... I doubt they have the authority to literally just gift the Treasury (or anybody) funds without getting a debt instrument/asset in return. Exactly... That's what I said. The treasury (or someone like a Fed bank) would first have to 'borrow' the money (creating bonds for the Fed to hold on its ba...
by JoMoney
Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 95
Views: 5143

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

In hindsight, we know where the big dips in the market were, and the things that didn't drop (or things negatively correlated), the problem comes in to play because we can't predict in advance. If you could add a negative returning 'asset' with no correlation and expect a benefit, that means I coul...
by JoMoney
Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 95
Views: 5143

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

Now, even though it is theoretically possible, just for fun see if you can show me a real-world example, with PortfolioVisualizer or any other tool, of a period of time of, say, more than three years, over which adding an asset wih noticeably negative return made a noticable improvement, either in ...