Search found 3517 matches

by JoMoney
Thu Aug 25, 2016 2:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E Ratio Question
Replies: 22
Views: 1408

Re: P/E Ratio Question

S&P puts out a spreadsheet for the index that has all sorts of data, including operating earnings, reported earnings, and analyst forward projected earnings http://us.spindices.com/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx If you want a weighted trailing P/E, I would look at what Vanguar...
by JoMoney
Wed Aug 24, 2016 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement: Where $200K Will Last 30 Years
Replies: 44
Views: 6313

Re: Retirement: Where $200K Will Last 30 Years

...... People can (and do) live in the U.S. on social security alone. . ... Not so sure if I would call that "living". More like just "existing" Even if drawing the max on old age benefits - there is still insurance premiums to be paid, property taxes, maintenance and upkeep. Th...
by JoMoney
Wed Aug 24, 2016 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement: Where $200K Will Last 30 Years
Replies: 44
Views: 6313

Re: Retirement: Where $200K Will Last 30 Years

As others stated, there are very affordable places to live even within the U.S. especially if you're willing to live away from the coast or major cities. People can (and do) live in the U.S. on social security alone. Something to consider: https://www.thestreet.com/slideshow/13552416/1/10-countries-...
by JoMoney
Wed Aug 24, 2016 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E Ratio Question
Replies: 22
Views: 1408

Re: P/E Ratio Question

I was talking about the average P/E ratio of sp500 index during the 2008 recession as an example. Bear in mind the P/E ratio of the S&P500 Index isn't really an "average". The index aggregates the earnings of all the companies together, and then puts price over that number to report t...
by JoMoney
Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends
Replies: 139
Views: 6188

Re: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends

Oddly, despite Vanguard CRSP value/growth indexes, the Russell 1000 Growth vs Value has a larger market cap on the growth side.
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... =INT#tab=2

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... =INT#tab=2
by JoMoney
Tue Aug 23, 2016 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends
Replies: 139
Views: 6188

Re: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends

Looks like Larry is right here. These are all funds that I own except for Vanguard Value Index and DFA. All except for my Plain Old Boring Large Value fund had a higher volatility measure than the S&P 500. An interesting observation here nedsaid. One question that I don't know the answer to is ...
by JoMoney
Tue Aug 23, 2016 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's worth more?
Replies: 28
Views: 2445

Re: What's worth more?

In this hypothetical, how old am I, and how soon can I start withdrawing the Federal pension? To keep it apples to apples, say you're beginning retirement and can start drawing the pension immediately. This doesn't provide enough information. Military can "begin their retirement" after 20...
by JoMoney
Tue Aug 23, 2016 2:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's worth more?
Replies: 28
Views: 2445

Re: What's worth more?

In this hypothetical, how old am I, and how soon can I start withdrawing the Federal pension?
by JoMoney
Mon Aug 22, 2016 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary creates ETF
Replies: 17
Views: 3441

Re: Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary creates ETF

The product I've always been curious about is if someone created a low-cost ETF that simply took either the S&P 500 or preferably the Wilshire 5000/total market index and included only companies that pay regular dividends. No other analysis, no other factors, no other loadings. I'm not sure I'd...
by JoMoney
Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brilliant Quant Hedge Fund has returns of S&P 500
Replies: 11
Views: 1484

Re: Brilliant Quant Hedge Fund has returns of S&P 500

... Not just the risk level but where the risk came from... And that can be a very difficult to answer, hedge funds tend to not be very transparent, and can get involved with things beyond simply trading stocks. You could use options to come up with strategies to capture the returns of an index (or...
by JoMoney
Sun Aug 21, 2016 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Difference in Performance results between VG and M*
Replies: 9
Views: 659

Re: Difference in Performance results between VG and M*

If you buy after the dip, say August 20th, then you do better than buying before the dip say on August 1st. This also shows that folks who say "Oh, a 10% drop in a few weeks means nothing." Of course it does. The person who bought just before the 10% drop will always be 10% behind the per...
by JoMoney
Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard seeks SEC relief for US active ETFs:
Replies: 12
Views: 1104

Re: Vanguard seeks SEC relief for US active ETFs:

I wonder what Mr.Bogle would say... I'd guess something like “People say to me, 'I understand you disagree with Vanguard.’ Absolutely not. I’d never do that. Vanguard disagrees with me. I’ve been in this position for too long and I’m too old to speak vigorously in a position I don’t believe fundamen...
by JoMoney
Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brilliant Quant Hedge Fund has returns of S&P 500
Replies: 11
Views: 1484

Re: Brilliant Quant Hedge Fund has returns of S&P 500

Hmm... ...Jones has reportedly started a sweeping organizational change that will emphasize more technologically driven and big-data trading approaches. “No man is better than a machine,” Jones told his remaining employees... And so it begins... Skynet won't come out of the military like everyone th...
by JoMoney
Sun Aug 21, 2016 2:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends
Replies: 139
Views: 6188

Re: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends

If growth stocks have a high price to earnings ratio, and a high P/E indicates positive investor sentiment, is value investing a contrarian strategy? The fact that there are a multitude of mutual funds catering to people who want to follow such strategies is an indicator that it's not a contrarian ...
by JoMoney
Sat Aug 20, 2016 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Difference in Performance results between VG and M*
Replies: 9
Views: 659

Re: Difference in Performance results between VG and M*

When I look at Vanguard's website , for the 5 year period ending 7/31/2016 it shows VWELX had a 9.76% average annual return When I go to Morningstar and look at a $10,000 growth chart between 7/31/2011 to 7/31/2016 it shows growth to $15,932.09 ... which is a CAGR of 9.76% If I go to the Morningstar...
by JoMoney
Sat Aug 20, 2016 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market (Settlement fund) - quick question
Replies: 13
Views: 2409

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market (Settlement fund) - quick question

Vanguard is forcing the change to 'Federal Money Market' for brokerage settlements. You're free to move it to whatever investments (like other money market accounts) you want, but they're forcing the settlement to occur in the 'Federal Money Market'. Vanguard Brokerage selected the 'Federal Money Ma...
by JoMoney
Sat Aug 20, 2016 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends
Replies: 139
Views: 6188

Re: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends

Whether it's behavior or risk, I know I was buying more shares of energy stocks as they tanked recently. It's a value strategy that indexes weren't following, so even if individual investors aren't buying hot growth stocks on their own and using indexes instead, they'd still be putting less money i...
by JoMoney
Sat Aug 20, 2016 1:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Soros betting against the market (shorting SPY)?
Replies: 33
Views: 4730

Re: Why is Soros betting against the market (shorting SPY)?

My first question is why is a billionaire telling the world what he is doing? I doubt he cares about my welfare, so perhaps he is trying to convince me to do something that will help him make money. I doubt he'll kindly give me a heads up before he exits his position. If I had a billion dollars and...
by JoMoney
Fri Aug 19, 2016 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends
Replies: 139
Views: 6188

Re: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends

... I had always thought that shrinking the value premium without shrinking the value/growth spread would require the market to have companies with better growth prospects than in the past. But that's not needed at all. We don't need a market with better companies, we just need a market that's bett...
by JoMoney
Fri Aug 19, 2016 10:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are debit cards risky (from fraud)?
Replies: 19
Views: 1086

Re: Are debit cards risky (from fraud)?

...QUESTION: can a credit card# (or debit card#) be compromised if not used transactionally for purchases? Yes, it can still be compromised, but using it less frequently/fewer locations (or not at all) limits your exposure and less likely to be a victim. Someone who never had their debit card enter...
by JoMoney
Fri Aug 19, 2016 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3109
Views: 706806

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

^ Yes, the chart is showing inflation adjusted "earnings"... and there are some significant differences in the way earnings are calculated in more recent years relative to decades past... in particular, mark-to-market rules required huge losses to be accounted for by many financial firms d...
by JoMoney
Fri Aug 19, 2016 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index
Replies: 36
Views: 4308

Re: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index

... While I cannot find the link at this moment. I have heard Buffett mention either at the annual meeting or on CNBC that as far as asset allocation is concerned, investors should keep enough cash and bonds so that they feel comfortable and then put the rest into equities. ... Yes, there's at leas...
by JoMoney
Thu Aug 18, 2016 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: credit score hit when closing cc accounts?
Replies: 11
Views: 622

Re: credit score hit when closing cc accounts?

I recently closed a credit card that made up 2/3rds of my "available credit".
My credit score dropped 4 points, going from "Excellent" to ... "Excellent".
I think I'll be ok :wink:
by JoMoney
Thu Aug 18, 2016 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Second Guessing Having A % In Short Bonds in Retirement
Replies: 21
Views: 1324

Re: Second Guessing Having A % In Short Bonds in Retirement

Others disagree, and maybe for their purposes they may be right, but my thoughts are that the maturity/duration of the bonds or bond fund should be targeted at your potential need for the money. The whole point of a bond from my perspective is that it's a promise to deliver a certain amount of money...
by JoMoney
Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index
Replies: 36
Views: 4308

Re: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index

...Has he ever made similar suggestions only applied to EU based investors? I haven't seen anything from Buffett with regard to Euro investors, but there was a recent interview with Ted Weschler, who is one of the investing "deputies" so to speak that Buffett selected for Berkshire Hathaw...
by JoMoney
Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Soros betting against the market (shorting SPY)?
Replies: 33
Views: 4730

Re: Why is Soros betting against the market (shorting SPY)?

I don't think you should infer too much from this. You don't know the overall portfolio exposure. It may well be that Soros is actually overall U.S. neutral or even long the U.S. in the context of his overall portfolio. There are many positions (e.g. overseas positions, recently initiated positions...
by JoMoney
Tue Aug 16, 2016 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?
Replies: 12
Views: 687

Re: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?

Stocks are indeed (relative to the past) high priced based on fundamental multiples.
Bonds are at unprecedented high prices (based on historical yields).
Growth has been sub-par. My hope, is that fundamental growth returns towards more historical norms.
by JoMoney
Tue Aug 16, 2016 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Editing shortcut emacs-like keys. Do u use them?
Replies: 26
Views: 1206

Re: Editing shortcut emacs-like keys. Do u use them?

I wonder if folks are aware of the emacs-like editing keystrokes available when typing in posts. You know: ^-a, ^-e ^-b, ^-f, ^-n, ^-p, ^-v ^-d, ^-k where ^- means press and hold the control key while pressing the following key. That is, ^-a is the same as control-a or ctrl-a. and of course alt-z (...
by JoMoney
Tue Aug 16, 2016 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Warren Buffet Right About The S&P 500?
Replies: 34
Views: 5743

Re: Is Warren Buffet Right About The S&P 500?

I was looking over John Bogle's "Little Book Of Common Sense Investing" again, in chapter 3 he goes over the similarities and a bit of history with the S&P500 and "Total Stock Market". He mentions that in 2006 he was at a dinner celebrating the 30th anniversary of the Vanguar...
by JoMoney
Tue Aug 16, 2016 2:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Warren Buffet Right About The S&P 500?
Replies: 34
Views: 5743

Re: Is Warren Buffet Right About The S&P 500?

... In some sense, it is reassuring that it appears to make little difference ;-). That's my take on it. I do believe there is a momentum play of sorts in a market cap weighted index, it's diffused more in a broader index. Cap weighting has a sort of 'relative strength' momentum that pushes the sto...
by JoMoney
Mon Aug 15, 2016 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Warren Buffet Right About The S&P 500?
Replies: 34
Views: 5743

Re: Is Warren Buffet Right About The S&P 500?

...Basically the TSM gives you a little more small cap exposure (good in the long run) and there are hedge fund strategies that work against those who index against the S&P500, but not against the broader index. Hedge funds are siphoning performance from S&P500 indexers. In the long run, th...
by JoMoney
Mon Aug 15, 2016 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle & Buffett on International Investing
Replies: 82
Views: 6922

Re: Bogle & Buffett on International Investing

I'm uncomfortable with international stocks and agree with some posters about the risks involved particularly with emerging markets and countries like China/Russia and others. What about only investing only in international large/mega cap indexes? I imagine these companies come with less risk and t...
by JoMoney
Mon Aug 15, 2016 4:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Warren Buffet Right About The S&P 500?
Replies: 34
Views: 5743

Re: Is Warren Buffet Right About The S&P 500?

I'm betting on it. That is to say, it's my only equity holding. Sometime around 2008 I remember reading about a question that was asked to Warren Buffett at the Berkshire Hathaway meeting: “If you were 30 years old and had no dependents but a full-time job that precluded full-time investing, how wou...
by JoMoney
Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Minority of Investors" ... Billionaires
Replies: 35
Views: 3638

Re: "The Minority of Investors" ... Billionaires

"... if you've ever kept more than $3million in one place, you know you've just painted huge target on your back ..."? Presumably all the billionaires keep a thousand separate accounts? Or they keep their billions in buried gold? Quite a few of them likely don't keep the bulk of their wea...
by JoMoney
Sun Aug 14, 2016 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity ERISA lawsuit over 401k brokerage option
Replies: 15
Views: 1113

Re: Fidelity ERISA lawsuit over 401k brokerage option

^ There can be differences between plans, but I know that in mine it's simple enough to transfer to and from the "Brokerage Link", but it has to be done through a settlement fund and there will likely be a couple days spent out of the market while the money is moved. Most of the plan inves...
by JoMoney
Sat Aug 13, 2016 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard total stock market returns with dividends table?
Replies: 3
Views: 919

Re: Vanguard total stock market returns with dividends table?

If you were willing to accept index returns rather than the specific Vanguard mutual funds returns, you could probably get a chart at Morningstar
Like this one for the Wilshire 5000 (Total Return w/dividends) vs (Price Return)
Should be pretty close to that of the 'Total Market' mutual fund.
by JoMoney
Sat Aug 13, 2016 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity ERISA lawsuit over 401k brokerage option
Replies: 15
Views: 1113

Re: Fidelity ERISA lawsuit over 401k brokerage option

... So that part of the lawsuit might (?) have some validity: A plan participant bets the ranch on a hot new stock, and... whammo... retirement money in the ERISA plan is mostly gone...? My companies 401k plan (administered by Fidelity) offers the "brokerage link" option and I can purchas...
by JoMoney
Sat Aug 13, 2016 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles Ellis on Wealthtrack.com tonight. Link provided.
Replies: 14
Views: 1631

Re: Charles Ellis on Wealthtrack.com tonight. Link provided.

Nothing new for seasoned Bogleheads, but great info well presented by Mr.Ellis. Thanks for sharing!
I don't think it's outlandish, but his view on bonds may be a little contentious with some on here (@around 21:30)
by JoMoney
Fri Aug 12, 2016 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else noticing the economy improving?
Replies: 78
Views: 4140

Re: Anyone else noticing the economy improving?

There was a recent Warren Buffett article where he gives some of his views on how things are going http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/the-playbook-interview-warren-buffett-226892 ...2 percent growth will do wonders for this country starting from this space. It doesn’t match our best years, but it...
by JoMoney
Fri Aug 12, 2016 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I am tempted to time the market
Replies: 36
Views: 2577

Re: I am tempted to time the market

Everything I read says don't try to time the market. As a 41 year old who is 15 years from retirement I am 90% stock market index fund and 10% bond. The market has been on one of the longest bull runs so I am thinking I should re-balance and go into cash and/or bonds because it seems like the corre...
by JoMoney
Fri Aug 12, 2016 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confession~ I timed the market today
Replies: 31
Views: 3335

Re: Confession~ I timed the market today

I think one of the important parts of confession is acknowledging that you did something wrong. Everybody screws up, the confession (even if it's just to yourself) is the first step in making a conscious effort to do better and try not to repeat the same mistakes. Having said that, your post doesn't...
by JoMoney
Fri Aug 12, 2016 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend yield of Total Stock Market ETFs.
Replies: 5
Views: 466

Re: Dividend yield of Total Stock Market ETFs.

When I look at Morningstar, they show the trailing twelve months dividend for ITOT as 1.95% , and for VTI 1.83% That's not much of a difference, but it is more than I would expect. My suspicions are the that it may have to do with the high turnover in ITOT (14%) vs VTI (3%). The high turnover is lik...
by JoMoney
Fri Aug 12, 2016 5:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you wire money?
Replies: 31
Views: 1801

Re: How do you wire money?

Too many people get victimized by scams that involve wiring money. I wish there was more context to how this situation arose that you need to wire money somewhere.
by JoMoney
Fri Aug 12, 2016 5:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle & Buffett on International Investing
Replies: 82
Views: 6922

Re: Bogle & Buffett on International Investing

Another international risk I don't know has been mentioned is accounting standards and compliance and general foreign business practices. Depending on how "international" we are talking (all the way into emerging markets and such) I find tremendous risk in international based on those ele...
by JoMoney
Fri Aug 12, 2016 4:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott warning signs in smart beta
Replies: 8
Views: 1175

Re: Rob Arnott warning signs in smart beta

I feel compelled to point out Mr. Bogle cautioned about this a decade ago when these funds were getting popular. Turn on a Paradigm? I don't see any spectacular performance over the past 10 years, and now some of the creators are complaining the performance they have managed to eek out is over price...
by JoMoney
Fri Aug 12, 2016 3:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle & Buffett on International Investing
Replies: 82
Views: 6922

Re: Bogle & Buffett on International Investing

... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvgptl5-Kcc Always good to see Mr. Bogle explain it in his own words. I found it an interesting side note, that things have changed a bit since this interview. He mentions the U.K. as being the top holding in a market weighted international fund... not so anymore...
by JoMoney
Thu Aug 11, 2016 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asymmetrical Information and Financial Markets
Replies: 12
Views: 889

Re: Asymmetrical Information and Financial Markets

Even the creator of the EMH doesn't believe it's an absolute truth. It's just a model, and its continued influence seems to predominantly be that nobody has come up with a better model. Asymmetrical information is a fact. Someone who wants to trade in securities hoping to eek out something extra sho...
by JoMoney
Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FTSE 100 earnings
Replies: 15
Views: 996

Re: FTSE 100 earnings

There are multiple ways that P/E can be calculated on a portfolio. There have been other threads/discussions on this as well with regard to the S&P500 or Total Market funds, like this one: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=193123 Many broad indexes will treat earnings for...
by JoMoney
Wed Aug 10, 2016 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FTSE 100 earnings
Replies: 15
Views: 996

Re: FTSE 100 earnings

Not unique to the FTSE 100, the global market is having a tough time. Aggregate growth in the U.S. is dismal too. U.S. large-caps have borrowed cheaply and spending their cash hoard doing stock buybacks which help make per share earnings and growth in other metrics not look quite as bad... But I thi...
by JoMoney
Wed Aug 10, 2016 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle & Buffett on International Investing
Replies: 82
Views: 6922

Re: Bogle & Buffett on International Investing

...Portfolio returns with rebalancing could be better than either alone. It could also do worse, for example.... A 50/50 split of Vanguard Total Stock Market (US) and Total International over the last 20 years A CAGR of 6.35% for a portfolio that bought 50/50 initially and never rebalanced ( pvlink...

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