Search found 449 matches

by Jeff Albertson
Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm thinking about buying some real estate to diversify my virtual wealth - agree?
Replies: 17
Views: 1220

Re: I'm thinking about buying some real estate to diversify my virtual wealth - agree?

from the Economist - BONDS, shares and Treasury bills are all very well, but in the end they are just pieces of paper. They are not assets you can hang on the wall or display to admiring neighbours. Many rich people like to invest their wealth in more tangible form; property, of course, but also col...
by Jeff Albertson
Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 129
Views: 7173

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

FWIW, the Economist's Philip Coggan also estimates 4% real, 6% nominal, at most (assumes there is no valuation downgrade for equities). https://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2018/02/long-term-investing The current dividend yield on the global market is around 2.5%. It seems unwise to assume any...
by Jeff Albertson
Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: World Travelers: What's the local economy look like?
Replies: 10
Views: 1062

Re: World Travelers: What's the local economy look like?

For many funds, financial institutions, and wealthy individuals, the perception is that the world’s financial centers are the places to be. After all, world-class cities like New York, London, and Hong Kong will never go out of style, and their extremely robust and high-density city centers limit t...
by Jeff Albertson
Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In plain English, please explain what was VIX, what happened to it and why?
Replies: 68
Views: 5820

Re: In plain English, please explain what was VIX, what happened to it and why?

see 'The Indicator from Planet Money', Feb 12, 'Fear: The Index', (podcast, 7:15)
https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510325/the ... anet-money

(Wish Cardiff Garcia was still doing the FT's Alphachat podcast. His talents are way under-used at Planet Money)
by Jeff Albertson
Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM believers, defend thyself! (In a good natured, friendly debate.)
Replies: 59
Views: 6413

Re: TSM believers, defend thyself! (In a good natured, friendly debate.)

Look at the evidence. Big endowments can employ the best & brightest to manage their money. The average 'factor investor' is unlikely to have even a fraction of the skills and resources available to him compared to a big endowment manager. The most recent results are through fiscal year end June 201...
by Jeff Albertson
Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon Stock - Can this giant be stopped?
Replies: 66
Views: 3998

Re: Amazon Stock - Can this giant be stopped?

On the BBC World News channel this weekend: ' Break up the Tech Giants' Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft. In the space of just ten years, these five have become the biggest companies on the planet, each utterly dominating the market they operate in. They've got so large by offering cons...
by Jeff Albertson
Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 94
Views: 6516

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

The Economist 'newspaper' has an article in the new issue: “Factor investing” gains popularity https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21736145-age-old-search-magic-market-beating-formula-still-looks Still, the best-known factors have been too successful for too long for it to be a stat...
by Jeff Albertson
Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds
Replies: 87
Views: 7941

Re: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds

I've been a little concerned with bonds - more so than stocks. That being said I am putting all new contributions into vanguard balanced fund (60/40 allocation). I then came across this bit: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/31/alan-greenspan-says-there-are-bubbles-in-both-stocks-and-bonds.html You're m...
by Jeff Albertson
Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Your FERS Annuity and Your TSP Investment Strategy
Replies: 14
Views: 1053

Re: The Value of Your FERS Annuity and Your TSP Investment Strategy

It's to be expected. During a prolonged bull market some people twist themselves in a knot to justify putting more into the surging stock market. Just look a the bitcoin market & the fervent new converts. He seems to be recommending that the retiree take his $400k in savings and put it all in the st...
by Jeff Albertson
Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller: Stock Market Like 1928
Replies: 57
Views: 6550

Re: Robert Shiller: Stock Market Like 1928

Shiller has a related article on his Project Syndicate web page. "The World’s Priciest Stock Market" https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/robert-j--shiller He makes an interesting observation on bond rates - But bond markets act as if they think inflation can be extrapolated. Long-term intere...
by Jeff Albertson
Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 114
Views: 10121

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

BBC Newsnight has a 7 minute video on a big miner near London. He says his costs are only about 25% of the current market value.
"David Grossman enters a cryptocurrency maze to find out how powerful computers mine digital currencies such as Bitcoin."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRxL2GKDU5E
by Jeff Albertson
Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 460
Views: 37453

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

CNET has a detailed review of the Tesla 3, including a 7 minute video.
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/auto/2018 ... ge/review/
by Jeff Albertson
Fri Jan 26, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin bubble ending with a flat top rather than a sharp drop?
Replies: 33
Views: 2478

Re: Bitcoin bubble ending with a flat top rather than a sharp drop?

"Coincheck Says It Lost Crypto Coins Valued at About $400 Million" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-26/cryptocurrencies-drop-after-japanese-exchange-halts-withdrawals One of Japan’s biggest cryptocurrency exchanges said that about $400 million in NEM tokens were lost after the coins w...
by Jeff Albertson
Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seeking help with Asia airline flights
Replies: 6
Views: 378

Re: Seeking help with Asia airline flights

Use the "multi-city" choice instead of roundtrip or one-way. You should see better prices.
The Matrix ITA web site has a help feature to explain how to customize your flight. Don't know if you can vary seat class by flight. Also try skyscanner.com.
by Jeff Albertson
Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 94
Views: 6516

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

Rekenthaler’s Rule: "If the bozos know about it, it doesn’t work anymore." ETF.com: Do you have a sense, as I do, that “factor-focused” investing is reaching some critical mass these days—and that we can see that in the behavior of the Wall Street marketing machine? Bernstein: I think so. The bozos ...
by Jeff Albertson
Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ancestry / 23andMe
Replies: 83
Views: 7103

Re: Ancestry / 23andMe

save your money "My Grandmother Was Italian. Why Aren't My Genes Italian?" https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2018/01/22/578293890/my-grandmother-was-italian-why-arent-my-genes-italian?utm_campaign=storyshare&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social Last fall, we sent away to get our DNA test...
by Jeff Albertson
Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Finding Best USA-To-Europe FLIGHT When Dates Are Not Limiting Factor?
Replies: 28
Views: 1762

Re: Finding Best USA-To-Europe FLIGHT When Dates Are Not Limiting Factor?

ITA Matrix was purchased by Google a few years ago. If you read the "help" files, you'll find the site is more flexible and powerful than the typical consumer web site. http://matrix.itasoftware.com/ ITA Software is a travel industry software division of Google, formerly an independent company, in C...
by Jeff Albertson
Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 126
Views: 8818

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

https://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/640-width/images/print-edition/20180120_FNC565.png https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21735038-most-hedge-fund-managers-are-not-good-enough-average-offset-their-high Clients may think they will be able to pick the bes...
by Jeff Albertson
Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: London/Paris Trip Questions
Replies: 41
Views: 1760

Re: London/Paris Trip Questions

recently in the Washington Post: 'How to plan your family’s first international vacation' https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/travel/how-to-plan-your-familys-first-international-vacation/2018/01/11/96163e4c-efea-11e7-b3bf-ab90a706e175_story.html Also, travel light, take only one small overhead ...
by Jeff Albertson
Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2.5 days Frankfurt/Cologne?
Replies: 8
Views: 462

Re: 2.5 days Frankfurt/Cologne?

from the Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2017 ... ls-museums
Room rates vary a lot from day to day due to the size of the current trade fair. Might be good to check room rates before getting too far along in your planning.
by Jeff Albertson
Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Keeping sensitive documents in the cloud -- bad idea?
Replies: 46
Views: 2802

Re: Keeping sensitive documents in the cloud -- bad idea?

Dropbox and Google Drive encrypt your data both on their servers and also when the data is in transit. For very sensitive data, extra measures probably make sense, but for the typical user, I don't know. Dropbox https://www.dropbox.com/security compare https://www.virtru.com/blog/dropbox-encryption/
by Jeff Albertson
Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?
Replies: 36
Views: 5302

Re: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?

One should be aware that there was a change in corporate income tax rates late last month. So a corporation that was earning 100million pretax was left with 65% of that prior to the new bill. Since the passage, that same corporation will be left with 79% of that amount. Roughly speaking. So 79 vs 6...
by Jeff Albertson
Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 101
Views: 8312

Re: Kodakcoin

NPR, The Indicator, interviews Dogecoin founder, Jackson Palmer. FWIW, he owns no dogecoin.
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018 ... y-so-amaze
by Jeff Albertson
Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Someone spoofing my phone number?
Replies: 65
Views: 5213

Re: Someone spoofing my phone number?

from the Washington Post magazine: 'How robo-callers outwitted the government and completely wrecked the Do Not Call list' https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/magazine/how-robo-call-moguls-outwitted-the-government-and-completely-wrecked-the-do-not-call-list/2018/01/09/52c769b6-df7a-11e7-bbd0-9d...
by Jeff Albertson
Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?
Replies: 36
Views: 5302

Re: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?

It's definitely not about robo advisors. Robos cater mainly to middle class investors & they (bottom 90%) control only a small percentage (9%) of the total amount invested in the stock market. It's much more likely the big money drives the market. http://www2.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/images/we...
by Jeff Albertson
Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 101
Views: 8312

Re: Kodakcoin

FT editor Izabella Kaminska: 'Bitcoin conference stops accepting bitcoin for tickets because turns out bitcoin is a rubbish payment system.' https://twitter.com/izakaminska/status/951217525341245448 https://news.bitcoin.com/miami-bitcoin-conference-stops-accepting-bitcoin-due-to-fees-and-congestion/
by Jeff Albertson
Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?
Replies: 31
Views: 3012

Re: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?

This may be useful:
Earnings Growth: The Two Percent Dilution, William J. Bernstein and Robert D. Arnott
https://www.researchaffiliates.com/docu ... lution.pdf
http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/702/2percent.htm
by Jeff Albertson
Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many Stocks Are Really Needed in Index Funds?
Replies: 52
Views: 3174

Re: How Many Stocks Are Really Needed in Index Funds?

For the same expected return, you are taking much more uncompensated risk. I don't understand why anyone would want to do that.
by Jeff Albertson
Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many Stocks Are Really Needed in Index Funds?
Replies: 52
Views: 3174

Re: How Many Stocks Are Really Needed in Index Funds?

See William Bernstein (2000), 'The 15-Stock Diversification Myth' http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/900/15st.htm The reason is simple: a grossly disproportionate fraction of the total return came from a very few "superstocks" like Dell Computer, which increased in value over 550 times. If you didn...
by Jeff Albertson
Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks That Went Bust
Replies: 101
Views: 6631

Re: Individual Stocks That Went Bust

A reminder from Marketwatch.com (Paul Merriman), most stocks are losers - The study evaluated every one-month return of every U.S. common stock traded on the New York and American stock exchanges and the Nasdaq all since 1926. In the abstract of his study, Bessembinder summarized some of his key fin...
by Jeff Albertson
Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: European Cities that don't interest you
Replies: 187
Views: 12114

Re: European Cities that don't interest you

Surprised/amused to see Frankfurt on so many no-go lists. Sure, the main tourist attractions (Roemerberg, Alt-Sachsenhausen etc) are a bit rubbish, but there's a few handfuls of good to world-class museums, nice walks and parks, good and/or local food/drink and easy access to some of Germany's nice...
by Jeff Albertson
Tue Dec 26, 2017 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: European Cities that don't interest you
Replies: 187
Views: 12114

Re: European Cities that don't interest you

Guardian readers on overrated tourist sights: https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2017/dec/15/you-cant-see-the-empire-state-building-from-the-top-readers-on-overrated-tourist-sights The most overrated spot has to be Waikiki Beach, in Hawaii. You always have this image of sheer perfection and a surfin...
by Jeff Albertson
Mon Dec 25, 2017 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector time to turn around?
Replies: 45
Views: 4095

Re: Energy sector time to turn around?

Lawrence Wright has a long article on Texas oil in the current New Yorker, 'The Dark Bounty of Texas Oil'. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/01/01/the-dark-bounty-of-texas-oil The rest of the state has followed Houston’s economic lead, and Texas is at last starting to become less reliant on oi...
by Jeff Albertson
Sun Dec 24, 2017 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The extended bull market
Replies: 53
Views: 4302

Re: The extended bull market

from the IMF "The Year in Review: Global Economy in 5 Charts" Equity valuations have continued their ascent and are near record highs, as central banks have maintained accommodative monetary policy settings amid weak inflation. This is part of a broader trend across global financial markets, where l...
by Jeff Albertson
Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3358
Views: 963517

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

BBC Culture’s 100 greatest comedies of all time http://www.bbc.com/culture/story/20170821-the-100-greatest-comedies-of-all-time So this year BBC Culture decided to get serious about comedy. We asked 253 film critics – 118 women and 135 men – from 52 countries and six continents a simple: “What do yo...
by Jeff Albertson
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification: Is there any way to produce the same returns with less risk?
Replies: 52
Views: 5300

Re: Diversification: Is there any way to produce the same returns with less risk?

Yes. Split your investments between assets that have the same expected return, but are not correlated with each other. Harry Markowitz won a Nobel prize on this subject, and it is the foundation of Modern Portfolio Theory. The British journalist, Robin Powell, has a nice two-part interview with Mar...
by Jeff Albertson
Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies
Replies: 112
Views: 8969

Re: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies

A good rule of thumb is half the position off the table. The utility of having half the profits but losing half the gains is greater than the utility of either being 0% or 100% of the gains. Barry Ritholtz's Bloomberg column concurs: If you are still paralyzed, there's always the middle option: Sel...
by Jeff Albertson
Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Variable Annuities / REITs
Replies: 11
Views: 858

Re: Vanguard Variable Annuities / REITs

This Bill Bernstein article from 2001 may be useful, 'A Limited Case for Variable Annuities' -
by Jeff Albertson
Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Espresso Machine suggestions?
Replies: 41
Views: 2869

Re: Espresso Machine suggestions?

Nespresso compatible capsules are available from Amazon and Aldi. The Amazon ones are from the Bestpresso brand from Spain, about 33 cents per pod. The Aldi version, $3.59 for ten pods. Original Nespresso pods are about 70 cents. You can probably find a blend at each of these companies that you like...
by Jeff Albertson
Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bitcoin blows-up
Replies: 55
Views: 4661

Re: When Bitcoin blows-up

Anyone have any idea what percentage of bitcoin holdings are in the US? Is there any way to even know? You can see the trading volume, by currency, here - https://www.cryptocompare.com/coins/btc/analysis/USD Holdings, rather than trading volume, is harder, maybe impossible, to know. The Bitcoin Wha...
by Jeff Albertson
Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Safest roomy luxury suv?
Replies: 58
Views: 5511

Re: Safest roomy luxury suv?

The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety’s list of top picks for 2018 - http://www.iihs.org/iihs/news/desktopnews/higher-standards-62-models-meet-tougher-criteria-to-earn-iihs-awards The 15 TOP SAFETY PICK+ winners include four small cars, three midsize cars, five large luxury cars, two midsize no...
by Jeff Albertson
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 11688

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

The U.S. may be just a small part of the crypo-craze. And last week, trading between the Korean currency, the won, and Ether, the most valuable Bitcoin competitor, was nearly as active as trading between the dollar and Ether — despite the fact that Korea’s population is one-sixth that of the United ...
by Jeff Albertson
Sun Dec 03, 2017 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 21188

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Bloomberg has summarized the bitcoin opinions of about three dozen business celebs in this article, "Bitcoin Bulls and Bears - Who's Hot, Who's Not on Crypto"
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/bitcoin-bulls-bears/
by Jeff Albertson
Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard seeks SEC relief for US active ETFs:
Replies: 14
Views: 2032

Re: Vanguard seeks SEC relief for US active ETFs:

VALLEY FORGE, Pa., Nov. 28, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Vanguard today filed a registration statement for six new factor-based ETFs and one factor-based mutual fund, representing Vanguard's first introduction of actively managed ETFs in the U.S. The company currently offers suites of active factor ETFs in...
by Jeff Albertson
Mon Nov 27, 2017 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies
Replies: 112
Views: 8969

Re: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies

I think I'm going to have to go get a shoe shine and see if they have any tips about which of these cryptocurrencies to invest in. Given their clientele, shoeshiners have access to some pretty good inside information, I wager ;-). I think you want Johnny the Shoeshine Guy from 1982 ABC tv series Po...
by Jeff Albertson
Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Crashplan for Home ending service late 2018
Replies: 117
Views: 11135

Re: Crashplan for Home ending service late 2018

PC Mag has a list of services and lists I-Drive and SOS-Online as excellent. The description seems to indicate I-Drive would work like an encrypted, backup with up to 10 versions, and concurrently be like a synced cloud drive, so I would have access to 100% of my personal files online even if trave...