Search found 468 matches

by Jeff Albertson
Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Forecast Center
Replies: 2
Views: 460

Re: Financial Forecast Center

... but can they compete with the professionals?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxopPDMq7rs
by Jeff Albertson
Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: Who's increasing their equities as they age?
Replies: 74
Views: 5033

Re: Retirees: Who's increasing their equities as they age?

William Bernstein discussed the Pfau and Kitces study in a 2014 WSJ article, "How to Think About Risk in Retirement" (available to non-subscribers). https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-think-about-risk-in-retirement-1417408070 People become bullish during a long bull market. You may be better off re...
by Jeff Albertson
Thu Apr 05, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein, new podcast
Replies: 56
Views: 5811

Re: Bill Bernstein, new podcast

Zvi Bodie says stocks get riskier with time, not less risky. With a PhD in Economics from MIT, i'm going to trust he's not mistaken. MIT is not a top school in economics. According this list https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings-articles/university-subject-rankings/top-universities-ec...
by Jeff Albertson
Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead-approved personal finance podcasts?
Replies: 27
Views: 3606

Re: Boglehead-approved personal finance podcasts?

Agree with others, Bloomberg's 'Masters in Business'. Previous guests: John Bogle Bogleheads: Larry Swedroe & Rick Ferri Vanguard chiefs & directors: Bill McNabb, Jack Brennan, Charlie Ellis & Burton Malkiel Nobel laureates: Paul Krugman, Robert Shiller & Richard Thaler, and occasionally guests like...
by Jeff Albertson
Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Berkshire Hathaway classified as a Growth stock?
Replies: 19
Views: 1881

Re: Why is Berkshire Hathaway classified as a Growth stock?

Bloomberg has an interesting article on Todd Combs, one of the investment managers at Berkshire Hathaway. He's also leading their health care push with Amazon & JPM. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-27/what-do-bezos-buffett-and-dimon-have-in-common-meet-todd-combs In 2000, Combs start...
by Jeff Albertson
Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whence S&P500 Return past 10 years?
Replies: 15
Views: 2119

Re: Whence S&P500 Return past 10 years?

Excellent post, thanks!
by Jeff Albertson
Fri Mar 23, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coffee maker recommendations
Replies: 29
Views: 2058

Re: Coffee maker recommendations

Sounds like this is what you need, 'Coffee to the Home'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2JBFlW--UU
by Jeff Albertson
Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE in the Context of Real Rates & Inflation, 1880-2018
Replies: 37
Views: 3322

Re: CAPE in the Context of Real Rates & Inflation, 1880-2018

The current Economist Buttonwood column also references a paper from Research Affiliates, "CAPE Fear: why CAPE Naysayers are Wrong". https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/640-width/images/print-edition/20180324_FNC142.png America’s ratio is 32.8, whereas Canada is trading on a CAP...
by Jeff Albertson
Sun Mar 18, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block vs TurboTax (spoiler: HRB is awful)
Replies: 70
Views: 6675

Re: H&R Block vs TurboTax (spoiler: HRB is awful)

I got tired of all the games turbotax was playing. Every couple of years, additional cost for basic features. I've reluctantly used hr block the last two years. Both intuit and block have lobbied hard (spent millions) to prevent the IRS from sending taxpayers pre-filled forms. Ex-Washington Post cor...
by Jeff Albertson
Sun Mar 18, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Forester vs CRV vs RAV4
Replies: 122
Views: 11488

Re: 2018 Forester vs CRV vs RAV4

PBS Motorweek & cars.com compared several compact suv's:
http://www.motorweek.org/reviews/compar ... -challenge
Their choice: Volkswagen Tiguan. They didn't test the Rav4 or Forester.
by Jeff Albertson
Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Backpacking in Guatemala and El Salvador?
Replies: 23
Views: 2002

Re: Backpacking in Guatemala and El Salvador?

The State Dept. provides advice: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/guatemala-travel-advisory.html Reconsider travel to Guatemala due to crime. Violent crime, such as sexual assault, carjacking, armed robbery, and murder, is common. Gang activity, such as ex...
by Jeff Albertson
Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show
Replies: 550
Views: 60641

Re: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show

David Chang's Ugly Delicious (with guest appearances by David Choe) , 8 one-hour episodes https://www.netflix.com/title/80170368 All the flavor. None of the BS. Star chef David Chang leads friends on a mouthwatering, cross-cultural hunt for the world's most satisfying grub. Starring: David Chang, Pe...
by Jeff Albertson
Fri Mar 09, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 83
Views: 9577

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

Bloomberg does a similar comparison between Vanguard's value etf with the new factor value etf.
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articl ... ld-save-it
by Jeff Albertson
Fri Mar 09, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flight to Paris etc
Replies: 33
Views: 3235

Re: Flight to Paris etc

If you like museums, gardens, and architecture, get the Eyewitness guide to Paris. Rick Steves doesn't talk much about cultural things. I agree: pickpockets are everywhere and the metro is very easy to use. Drop any diet: the food is fabulous! Mr Steves would agree about the pickpockets, https://bl...
by Jeff Albertson
Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP fails secuity audit
Replies: 19
Views: 2977

Re: TSP fails secuity audit

This article is 10 years old, so policy may have changed since then. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/federal-savings-plan-not-responsible-for-some-online-theft Federal savings plan: not responsible for some online theft Hackers withdrew about $35,000 from 23 individual TSP accounts in late Decembe...
by Jeff Albertson
Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Euro denominated ETF portfolio
Replies: 7
Views: 325

Re: Euro denominated ETF portfolio

The duration of most government bond markets is c 9 years or less (UK is the striking exception-- more like 13 years, from memory) and so a rise in interest rates will also mean an improvement in yield, going forward, which will likely mean price fall is recouped before the money is needed. https:/...
by Jeff Albertson
Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm thinking about buying some real estate to diversify my virtual wealth - agree?
Replies: 17
Views: 1471

Re: I'm thinking about buying some real estate to diversify my virtual wealth - agree?

from the Economist - BONDS, shares and Treasury bills are all very well, but in the end they are just pieces of paper. They are not assets you can hang on the wall or display to admiring neighbours. Many rich people like to invest their wealth in more tangible form; property, of course, but also col...
by Jeff Albertson
Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 152
Views: 10748

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

FWIW, the Economist's Philip Coggan also estimates 4% real, 6% nominal, at most (assumes there is no valuation downgrade for equities). https://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2018/02/long-term-investing The current dividend yield on the global market is around 2.5%. It seems unwise to assume any...
by Jeff Albertson
Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: World Travelers: What's the local economy look like?
Replies: 12
Views: 1498

Re: World Travelers: What's the local economy look like?

For many funds, financial institutions, and wealthy individuals, the perception is that the world’s financial centers are the places to be. After all, world-class cities like New York, London, and Hong Kong will never go out of style, and their extremely robust and high-density city centers limit t...
by Jeff Albertson
Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In plain English, please explain what was VIX, what happened to it and why?
Replies: 68
Views: 6079

Re: In plain English, please explain what was VIX, what happened to it and why?

see 'The Indicator from Planet Money', Feb 12, 'Fear: The Index', (podcast, 7:15)
https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510325/the ... anet-money

(Wish Cardiff Garcia was still doing the FT's Alphachat podcast. His talents are way under-used at Planet Money)
by Jeff Albertson
Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM believers, defend thyself! (In a good natured, friendly debate.)
Replies: 59
Views: 6553

Re: TSM believers, defend thyself! (In a good natured, friendly debate.)

Look at the evidence. Big endowments can employ the best & brightest to manage their money. The average 'factor investor' is unlikely to have even a fraction of the skills and resources available to him compared to a big endowment manager. The most recent results are through fiscal year end June 201...
by Jeff Albertson
Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon Stock - Can this giant be stopped?
Replies: 66
Views: 4190

Re: Amazon Stock - Can this giant be stopped?

On the BBC World News channel this weekend: ' Break up the Tech Giants' Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft. In the space of just ten years, these five have become the biggest companies on the planet, each utterly dominating the market they operate in. They've got so large by offering cons...
by Jeff Albertson
Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 95
Views: 7223

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

The Economist 'newspaper' has an article in the new issue: “Factor investing” gains popularity https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21736145-age-old-search-magic-market-beating-formula-still-looks Still, the best-known factors have been too successful for too long for it to be a stat...
by Jeff Albertson
Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds
Replies: 87
Views: 8207

Re: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds

I've been a little concerned with bonds - more so than stocks. That being said I am putting all new contributions into vanguard balanced fund (60/40 allocation). I then came across this bit: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/31/alan-greenspan-says-there-are-bubbles-in-both-stocks-and-bonds.html You're m...
by Jeff Albertson
Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Your FERS Annuity and Your TSP Investment Strategy
Replies: 14
Views: 1187

Re: The Value of Your FERS Annuity and Your TSP Investment Strategy

It's to be expected. During a prolonged bull market some people twist themselves in a knot to justify putting more into the surging stock market. Just look a the bitcoin market & the fervent new converts. He seems to be recommending that the retiree take his $400k in savings and put it all in the st...
by Jeff Albertson
Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller: Stock Market Like 1928
Replies: 57
Views: 6678

Re: Robert Shiller: Stock Market Like 1928

Shiller has a related article on his Project Syndicate web page. "The World’s Priciest Stock Market" https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/robert-j--shiller He makes an interesting observation on bond rates - But bond markets act as if they think inflation can be extrapolated. Long-term intere...
by Jeff Albertson
Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 114
Views: 10417

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

BBC Newsnight has a 7 minute video on a big miner near London. He says his costs are only about 25% of the current market value.
"David Grossman enters a cryptocurrency maze to find out how powerful computers mine digital currencies such as Bitcoin."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRxL2GKDU5E
by Jeff Albertson
Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 665
Views: 53944

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

CNET has a detailed review of the Tesla 3, including a 7 minute video.
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/auto/2018 ... ge/review/
by Jeff Albertson
Fri Jan 26, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin bubble ending with a flat top rather than a sharp drop?
Replies: 33
Views: 2557

Re: Bitcoin bubble ending with a flat top rather than a sharp drop?

"Coincheck Says It Lost Crypto Coins Valued at About $400 Million" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-26/cryptocurrencies-drop-after-japanese-exchange-halts-withdrawals One of Japan’s biggest cryptocurrency exchanges said that about $400 million in NEM tokens were lost after the coins w...
by Jeff Albertson
Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seeking help with Asia airline flights
Replies: 6
Views: 392

Re: Seeking help with Asia airline flights

Use the "multi-city" choice instead of roundtrip or one-way. You should see better prices.
The Matrix ITA web site has a help feature to explain how to customize your flight. Don't know if you can vary seat class by flight. Also try skyscanner.com.
by Jeff Albertson
Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 95
Views: 7223

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

Rekenthaler’s Rule: "If the bozos know about it, it doesn’t work anymore." ETF.com: Do you have a sense, as I do, that “factor-focused” investing is reaching some critical mass these days—and that we can see that in the behavior of the Wall Street marketing machine? Bernstein: I think so. The bozos ...
by Jeff Albertson
Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ancestry / 23andMe
Replies: 83
Views: 7405

Re: Ancestry / 23andMe

save your money "My Grandmother Was Italian. Why Aren't My Genes Italian?" https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2018/01/22/578293890/my-grandmother-was-italian-why-arent-my-genes-italian?utm_campaign=storyshare&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social Last fall, we sent away to get our DNA test...
by Jeff Albertson
Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Finding Best USA-To-Europe FLIGHT When Dates Are Not Limiting Factor?
Replies: 28
Views: 1804

Re: Finding Best USA-To-Europe FLIGHT When Dates Are Not Limiting Factor?

ITA Matrix was purchased by Google a few years ago. If you read the "help" files, you'll find the site is more flexible and powerful than the typical consumer web site. http://matrix.itasoftware.com/ ITA Software is a travel industry software division of Google, formerly an independent company, in C...
by Jeff Albertson
Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 137
Views: 11591

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

https://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/640-width/images/print-edition/20180120_FNC565.png https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21735038-most-hedge-fund-managers-are-not-good-enough-average-offset-their-high Clients may think they will be able to pick the bes...
by Jeff Albertson
Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: London/Paris Trip Questions
Replies: 41
Views: 1847

Re: London/Paris Trip Questions

recently in the Washington Post: 'How to plan your family’s first international vacation' https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/travel/how-to-plan-your-familys-first-international-vacation/2018/01/11/96163e4c-efea-11e7-b3bf-ab90a706e175_story.html Also, travel light, take only one small overhead ...
by Jeff Albertson
Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2.5 days Frankfurt/Cologne?
Replies: 8
Views: 475

Re: 2.5 days Frankfurt/Cologne?

from the Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2017 ... ls-museums
Room rates vary a lot from day to day due to the size of the current trade fair. Might be good to check room rates before getting too far along in your planning.
by Jeff Albertson
Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Keeping sensitive documents in the cloud -- bad idea?
Replies: 46
Views: 2905

Re: Keeping sensitive documents in the cloud -- bad idea?

Dropbox and Google Drive encrypt your data both on their servers and also when the data is in transit. For very sensitive data, extra measures probably make sense, but for the typical user, I don't know. Dropbox https://www.dropbox.com/security compare https://www.virtru.com/blog/dropbox-encryption/
by Jeff Albertson
Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?
Replies: 36
Views: 5378

Re: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?

One should be aware that there was a change in corporate income tax rates late last month. So a corporation that was earning 100million pretax was left with 65% of that prior to the new bill. Since the passage, that same corporation will be left with 79% of that amount. Roughly speaking. So 79 vs 6...
by Jeff Albertson
Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 101
Views: 8475

Re: Kodakcoin

NPR, The Indicator, interviews Dogecoin founder, Jackson Palmer. FWIW, he owns no dogecoin.
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018 ... y-so-amaze
by Jeff Albertson
Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Someone spoofing my phone number?
Replies: 65
Views: 5440

Re: Someone spoofing my phone number?

from the Washington Post magazine: 'How robo-callers outwitted the government and completely wrecked the Do Not Call list' https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/magazine/how-robo-call-moguls-outwitted-the-government-and-completely-wrecked-the-do-not-call-list/2018/01/09/52c769b6-df7a-11e7-bbd0-9d...
by Jeff Albertson
Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?
Replies: 36
Views: 5378

Re: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?

It's definitely not about robo advisors. Robos cater mainly to middle class investors & they (bottom 90%) control only a small percentage (9%) of the total amount invested in the stock market. It's much more likely the big money drives the market. http://www2.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/images/we...
by Jeff Albertson
Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 101
Views: 8475

Re: Kodakcoin

FT editor Izabella Kaminska: 'Bitcoin conference stops accepting bitcoin for tickets because turns out bitcoin is a rubbish payment system.' https://twitter.com/izakaminska/status/951217525341245448 https://news.bitcoin.com/miami-bitcoin-conference-stops-accepting-bitcoin-due-to-fees-and-congestion/
by Jeff Albertson
Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?
Replies: 31
Views: 3117

Re: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?

This may be useful:
Earnings Growth: The Two Percent Dilution, William J. Bernstein and Robert D. Arnott
https://www.researchaffiliates.com/docu ... lution.pdf
http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/702/2percent.htm
by Jeff Albertson
Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many Stocks Are Really Needed in Index Funds?
Replies: 52
Views: 3285

Re: How Many Stocks Are Really Needed in Index Funds?

For the same expected return, you are taking much more uncompensated risk. I don't understand why anyone would want to do that.
by Jeff Albertson
Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many Stocks Are Really Needed in Index Funds?
Replies: 52
Views: 3285

Re: How Many Stocks Are Really Needed in Index Funds?

See William Bernstein (2000), 'The 15-Stock Diversification Myth' http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/900/15st.htm The reason is simple: a grossly disproportionate fraction of the total return came from a very few "superstocks" like Dell Computer, which increased in value over 550 times. If you didn...