Search found 458 matches

by Jebediah
Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prosper.com Update Total Return
Replies: 35
Views: 2655

Re: Prosper.com Update Total Return

I think it is extremely difficult to evaluate p2p lending as an investment until it is seen how it performs during an economic downturn. My intuition is that the currently available returns don't justify the downside risk. Haven't run any numbers to back this up, but I'd imagine default rates would...
by Jebediah
Mon Feb 01, 2016 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles Ellis' suggested portfolios by age
Replies: 53
Views: 4034

Re: Charles Ellis' suggested portfolios by age

It's not really a good question, because it totally depends on how much money you have. If you're 40 and have 100K, then sure why not go 100% stocks. If you're 40 and have $5 million, then you could reasonably consider 0% stocks.
by Jebediah
Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 30 YO with 100K looking for investment advise - and a Shocking Chart
Replies: 25
Views: 2142

Re: 30 YO with 100K looking for investment advise - and a Shocking Chart

Jan 2000 - Jan 2016

SPY returned 86%
Large Value returned 225%
Small Value returned 379%
by Jebediah
Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]
Replies: 44
Views: 3298

Re: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]

Don't add your SS, and don't subtract your future taxes. Call it a wash.
by Jebediah
Fri Jan 22, 2016 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't people like the higher level of real estate allocation in Swensen lazy portfolio?
Replies: 33
Views: 2669

Re: Why don't people like the higher level of real estate allocation in Swensen lazy portfolio?

REITs have a minor diversification benefit, as any sector fund would. I have a more conspiratorial take on why REITs became a "thing". I think the false narratives of "REITs approximate actual real estate investment" and "your home is a consumption item, not an investment&qu...
by Jebediah
Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: eyeing micro-cap stocks
Replies: 39
Views: 2618

Re: eyeing micro-cap stocks

. It also illustrates for investors, the general case against holding high-yielding bonds in a small-cap value tilted portfolio, so as to avoid holding the same companies on the stock side as the bond side of a portfolio. When risks show up - the negative outcomes can be very large, particularly fo...
by Jebediah
Mon Jan 18, 2016 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 127
Views: 12260

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Cheap is better than expensive, but either way EM is not a very compelling equity diversifier. It has a low Sharpe ratio and relatively high correlation to developed market equities. The better equity diversifier is a well-managed, low-duration, mildly-leveraged credit CEF. Better Sharpe, low correl...
by Jebediah
Fri Dec 25, 2015 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15
Replies: 332
Views: 36126

Re: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15

People whom are tempted to play backtesting timing games on PortfolioVisualizer need to realize that these results, while fun for the euphoric wealth hallucinations they induce, are meaningless and totally data mined. Why? Because if you just tweak any of the input parameters slightly, the output va...
by Jebediah
Wed Dec 23, 2015 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Loomis Sayles Bond Fund LSBDX
Replies: 6
Views: 537

Re: LSBDX

If it's down, you're supposed to buy more (rebalance), not sell it. Nobody can offer "timing" advice for interest rates. If you're tempted to even think about timing interest rates, then you probably have no business owning bonds, instead try CDs. Except for this particular bond fund, whic...
by Jebediah
Wed Dec 23, 2015 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone buy Frozen meats online?
Replies: 13
Views: 1565

Re: Anyone buy Frozen meats online?

I have sent my brother a big box of Omaha steaks every year for his birthday. They had excellent service and my brother raved about them but I never tried them for myself. This year when I sent him his box, I ordered a few for myself. I thought they were horrible compared to the ones I get at the l...
by Jebediah
Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Confused about i401k and Roth combined max contributions
Replies: 2
Views: 332

Re: Confused about i401k and Roth combined max contributions

That's helpful, thank you. I do not have any other earned income. So then, you're saying that I can make a Roth i401k contribution comprising my entire business profit (8K - 1/2 SE) and additionally contribute another $5500 to my Roth IRA? This makes me wonder…could I declare interest from CDs in my...
by Jebediah
Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Confused about i401k and Roth combined max contributions
Replies: 2
Views: 332

Confused about i401k and Roth combined max contributions

As a sole proprietor/independent contractor, I'll have an earned income of about 8K in 2015. I have a large % of investments in taxable, thus I want to contribute as much as possible to my i401k and/or Roth. What is the maximum I can contribute to my solo 401k? Is it 8K (employee) plus $1600 (employ...
by Jebediah
Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need to generate more income from portfolio and need advice
Replies: 12
Views: 1577

Re: Need to generate more income from portfolio and need advice

tibbitts wrote:
Moving some of the funds to a Roth, particularly if you can stay in the 0% bracket, wouldn't hurt.


What 0% bracket? Isn't the lowest bracket 10% ?
by Jebediah
Tue Nov 17, 2015 2:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why shouldn't I build a 7-10 year brokered CD ladder as my "bond" allocation?
Replies: 19
Views: 2051

Re: Why shouldn't I build a 7-10 year brokered CD ladder as my "bond" allocation?

Thanks for the replies. Consider this idea officially crushed. A 2% spread is pushing a year's worth of interest-- outrageous.
by Jebediah
Mon Nov 16, 2015 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why shouldn't I build a 7-10 year brokered CD ladder as my "bond" allocation?
Replies: 19
Views: 2051

Re: Why shouldn't I build a 7-10 year brokered CD ladder as my "bond" allocation?

It is a bit cumbersome to re-balance with CDs (whether brokered or retail). I'd keep a modicum in a liquid bond fund or ETF for this reason. Although I prefer retail CDs, nothing wrong with brokered if held to maturity and rolled at that time. If you have the patience, a longish ladder will perform...
by Jebediah
Mon Nov 16, 2015 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why shouldn't I build a 7-10 year brokered CD ladder as my "bond" allocation?
Replies: 19
Views: 2051

Re: Why shouldn't I build a 7-10 year brokered CD ladder as my "bond" allocation?

Just go for it. Nothing wrong with your idea except if there is a strong chance that you will need to cash in all those CDs before they mature. You can tell me yourself what might happen if interest rates go up. Suppose in 2 years, I can buy a 5-year CD that pays me 4% interest. How much would I be...
by Jebediah
Mon Nov 16, 2015 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why shouldn't I build a 7-10 year brokered CD ladder as my "bond" allocation?
Replies: 19
Views: 2051

Re: Why shouldn't I build a 7-10 year brokered CD ladder as my "bond" allocation?

If you're planning to sell those CDs, you'll give up most of your yield bonus through spreads. Brokered CDs are best thought of as a buy-and-hold-until-maturity instrument. So, if one was doing a 10 year ladder that would be one thing; if one really just want bonds in the 7 to 10 year range, I'd pe...
by Jebediah
Mon Nov 16, 2015 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why shouldn't I build a 7-10 year brokered CD ladder as my "bond" allocation?
Replies: 19
Views: 2051

Why shouldn't I build a 7-10 year brokered CD ladder as my "bond" allocation?

In my fixed income allocation I'm aiming for zero credit risk and 7-10 years term risk. I could buy IEF, the 7-10 year treasury fund. That would be convenient. But the yield spread between 7 and 10 year treasuries is currently 1.93 to 2.20 %. Brokered CDs have a 7 to 10 year yield spread of 2.54 to ...
by Jebediah
Wed Sep 23, 2015 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gundlach: What to do when the Fed raises rates
Replies: 23
Views: 2750

Re: Gundlach: What to do when the Fed raises rates

Gundlach is wrong most of the time. He has no idea what the long bond "wants".
by Jebediah
Tue Aug 11, 2015 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anti-smartphone [basic phone + paper planner & address book] anyone??
Replies: 42
Views: 3511

Re: Anti-smartphone [basic phone + paper planner & address book] anyone??

Bulky $500 smartphones and their $100 a month "contracts" are good for teenagers who snapchat their kissy faces to each other during class. Compact $30 flip-phones, contract-free, $20 a month, are good for adults who need a simple way to talk and text. Use your computer for calendar and ad...
by Jebediah
Mon Aug 03, 2015 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mark Hulbert: Stock market 3.5%/yr over next decade
Replies: 28
Views: 2930

Re: Mark Hulbert: Stock market 3.5%/yr over next decade

3% sounds high. GMO/Grantham are forecasting -2% real for US stocks over the next 7 years...and they have an excellent track record with these forecasts. Do you have evidence of their "excellent track record"? Let's say, 2010 to present? L. GMO makes 7-10 year forecasts, not short term. S...
by Jebediah
Mon Aug 03, 2015 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mark Hulbert: Stock market 3.5%/yr over next decade
Replies: 28
Views: 2930

Re: Mark Hulbert: Stock market 3.5%/yr over next decade

3% sounds high. GMO/Grantham are forecasting -2% real for US stocks over the next 7 years...and they have an excellent track record with these forecasts.
by Jebediah
Wed Jul 22, 2015 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I Said "No" to Peer-to-Peer Lending
Replies: 66
Views: 6844

Re: Why I Said "No" to Peer-to-Peer Lending

I'm always surprised to see people holding a portfolio with an expected real return of -1 to 1%. That basically means you have to save everything you hope to spend later in retirement. I'd rather see my portfolio do some of the heavy lifting, so I've decided to take some risk with it. So far, that ...
by Jebediah
Wed Jul 22, 2015 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I Said "No" to Peer-to-Peer Lending
Replies: 66
Views: 6844

Re: Why I Said "No" to Peer-to-Peer Lending

HomerJ wrote:
Maverick3320 wrote:From personal experience, my returns have been around 11% over the last few years.


But the economy has been growing.

What happens when the next crash happens, and millions of people lose their jobs?

11%
11%
11%
11%
-80%


You're talking about the stock market, right?
by Jebediah
Wed Jul 22, 2015 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I Said "No" to Peer-to-Peer Lending
Replies: 66
Views: 6844

Re: Why I Said "No" to Peer-to-Peer Lending

Isn't this the noise we should be tuning out? How is the ramblings of a random blogger actionable or relevant?
by Jebediah
Fri Jul 10, 2015 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?
Replies: 48
Views: 4286

Re: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?

Contrary to what is asserted often on this board, DFA access does not have to be expensive at all .... Sorry, maybe I missed something. What's the inexpensive way to access DFA? 1. Hire advisor 2. Only let them manage funds for the equity side of your portfolio 3. get set up with BOSVX/DWUSX 4. use...
by Jebediah
Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 9229

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

As you can see from this heat map, there are many periods in which US stocks have returned zip for over two decades. So, it wouldn't be extraordinary for that to happen over the next 2-3 decades. Plan accordingly. I'm not buying it. The chart includes an incredibly vague disclaimer "Includes d...
by Jebediah
Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 9229

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

If you believe the QSPIX will will be nearly uncorrelated with stocks and bonds going forward it is useful as a hedge... You need more than low correlation to make something "useful." There are many things that have low correlation. For example, actual currency--money under the mattress--...
by Jebediah
Sat Jun 20, 2015 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum across time and asset classes
Replies: 40
Views: 5487

Re: Momentum across time and asset classes

But with momentum, what I am saying is that--for three real-world mutual-fund implementations of "momentum," I did not even see the higher return. You are right, current momentum offerings (AQR, iShares) have implementation problems- negative alphas and negative value loadings. I wouldn't...
by Jebediah
Tue Jun 16, 2015 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1078
Views: 116576

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

As someone else said on this or earlier thread, it's more like multiplicity than conceptual complication. They are using simple instruments (no options AFAIK, just futures, cash stocks and other simple cash underlyings). It's true there are pretty many (factors, markets) but that also cuts against ...
by Jebediah
Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum across time and asset classes
Replies: 40
Views: 5487

Re: Momentum across time and asset classes

Nisi,

Your charts are often interesting if a bit cherry picked. I wonder what you make of this chart. This is small value VS S&P500 starting in 1993-- right after Fama and French published their 1992 paper.

Image
by Jebediah
Sun Jun 14, 2015 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1078
Views: 116576

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Remember that from a fund managers point of view, the objective is not to get clients the highest possible return. Their objective is to increase their own income. The fund manager (can be one person, or multiple people) has their own assets. To the extent that the idea is so good that can provide ...
by Jebediah
Thu Jun 11, 2015 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why does Jack Bogle have no international funds
Replies: 69
Views: 7828

Re: Why does Jack Bogle have no international funds

I've no idea what'll actually happen, but I do know two things:

1) expected returns on US stocks are very low (some say zero) for the next 10 years.
2) global is more diversified than local.
by Jebediah
Thu Jun 11, 2015 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why does Jack Bogle have no international funds
Replies: 69
Views: 7828

Re: Why does Jack Bogle have no international funds

Twins Fan wrote:... I'm not going for optimum returns, or worried about having the highest preforming asset class, or whatever is cool at the time to have 5% of one's portfolio in. I will take good returns and be just fine with it...


What about BAD returns? Fine with that? If so, you're all set!
by Jebediah
Wed Jun 10, 2015 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs - why the volatility?
Replies: 44
Views: 4251

Re: REITs - why the volatility?

There is too much not to like about REITS - very high vol - low expected return (from here) - more or less moves in step with stocks - tax inefficient, takes up your IRA space Hard to fathom owning REITs at these levels. Think about it: a levered basket of real estate yielding 3%? Would you buy a r...
by Jebediah
Wed Jun 10, 2015 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs - why the volatility?
Replies: 44
Views: 4251

Re: REITs - why the volatility?

There is too much not to like about REITS - very high vol - low expected return (from here) - more or less moves in step with stocks - tax inefficient, takes up your IRA space Hard to fathom owning REITs at these levels. Think about it: a levered basket of real estate yielding 3%? Would you buy a re...
by Jebediah
Wed Jun 10, 2015 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs - why the volatility?
Replies: 44
Views: 4251

Re: REITs - why the volatility?

dbr wrote:The Rick Ferri 30 year forecast lists REITS as an asset class at 7% return and 19% standard deviation of return.


Where does he get this? The yield at the time of the forecast was 3%. Shouldn't the expected return be 3%?
by Jebediah
Thu Jun 04, 2015 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio feedback request
Replies: 11
Views: 830

Re: Portfolio feedback request

say EM underperforms for 15 years. How shocked will you be? Usually when people think they ought to overweight EM it's because they imagine it's some kind of free ticket to better returns. If you really need more risk then you're better off looking into using margin or levered ETFs, not a portfolio ...
by Jebediah
Thu Jun 04, 2015 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio feedback request
Replies: 11
Views: 830

Re: Portfolio feedback request

simplify the allocation. VOO, VWO, and VPL are unnecessary. Put the entire 401k into the Ex-US fund. Then split the Roth between VTI, VSS, and VB in whatever proportion you fancy.
by Jebediah
Thu May 28, 2015 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All cash now ($1M) - need advice on entering this lofty market
Replies: 96
Views: 10428

Re: All cash now ($1M) - need advice on entering this lofty market

Ability to take risk... Low. Don't have enough money/time to weather large or sustained losses. Need to take risk... Low. You have just enough to get by without it. Willingness to take risk... Low - medium. You are afraid of drawdowns. Plus the fact that stocks are very expensive...makes me wonder w...
by Jebediah
Sun May 24, 2015 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with 5M?
Replies: 93
Views: 16493

Re: What to do with 5M?

If you went 100% 30 year TIPS ladder you could draw 60K (real) plus the coupons every year for the next 70 years and still have 800K (real) left. Coupons will fluctuate, but right now at about 40K/yr. So that's about 100K real a year (plus or minus), pre-tax, for life. I only point this out because ...
by Jebediah
Sun May 24, 2015 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with 5M?
Replies: 93
Views: 16493

Re: What to do with 5M?

Curious, why not at least 80% in 30 year TIPS? Are your goals to increase wealth or preserve capital?
by Jebediah
Sun May 24, 2015 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 64
Views: 5546

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

Of course a dividend is a component of return. If it wasn't it wouldn't be a dividend. It would be a return of capital. Dividends are essentially return of capital. They are fully distinct from a company's revenues/profits/return, but (as we see here) often get conflated with returns because it's m...
by Jebediah
Sat May 23, 2015 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 64
Views: 5546

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

What I am saying is that dividends matter. Why do they matter? I can't think of any good reason, honestly. Many folks disagree with that and I think we can agree to disagree. But again, John Bogle says that dividends are an important part of the return from stocks. When projecting future expected r...
by Jebediah
Sat May 23, 2015 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 64
Views: 5546

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

Do you really think I believe in a "dividend fairy" that magically generates cash out of thin air? You have to give us more credit than that. I hope not, but there seems to be a lot of confusion out there between total return and ROI (which leads to clearly false ideas like "protecti...
by Jebediah
Sat May 23, 2015 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 64
Views: 5546

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

Dividends have always been an important component of the returns you get from stocks... He saw dividends as an important component of return and when reinvested, a protection against bear markets. Divs are not returns. As Larry says in the opening sentence: Despite the fact that traditional financi...
by Jebediah
Fri May 22, 2015 12:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Advice: Follow "Passion" or Follow the Money?
Replies: 74
Views: 5499

Re: Career Advice: Follow "Passion" or Follow the Money?

I didn't read through all the details of option 2, but from the way you set it up your choices are doing the work you like/love for 100k a year vs doing something else for 180k a year. Are you serious? Listen dude, you know how much artists who follow their "passion" make ? They make ZERO....
by Jebediah
Wed May 20, 2015 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Parks to visit between TX and PA?
Replies: 23
Views: 986

Re: Parks to visit between TX and PA?

Make a b-line to NC/Virginia/West Virginia and then start playing around. Hike the state parks, parkways/scenic drives, and raft or canoe the New River. Also, plenty of civil war sites. Same scenery as Smokey Mtn Nat Park sans the crowds and tourist junk. If you really have the time, drive out to so...
by Jebediah
Wed May 20, 2015 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Rehab My Portfolio Bogleheads! ]
Replies: 3
Views: 377

Re: REHAB MY PORTFOLIO BOGLEHEADS!

Your portfolio is a disaster. Sell everything and follow this:
http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio

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