Search found 1965 matches

by IlliniDave
Tue Jul 26, 2016 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?
Replies: 95
Views: 5502

Re: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?

Thanks for posting Dave. I would be interested in how you intend to accomplish this? Would you divide your assets into two families, one at say 60/40 and the other at 100/0? Hi NMJack, thanks for the kind words. Dividing the money would be preferable (convenience). I hope to have that accomplished ...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jul 26, 2016 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?
Replies: 95
Views: 5502

Re: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?

It's likely I'll wind up on the rising equity path. I'm planning to use a semi-LMP, semi-bucket approach. In short, a fraction of my assets will be invested with an AA primarily as suits the age of my heirs: for growth. The rest will be invested more conservatively AA-wise for me to spend down as I ...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jul 22, 2016 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Market Increasingly Detached from U.S. Economy
Replies: 19
Views: 2401

Re: U.S. Stock Market Increasingly Detached from U.S. Economy

The figure just seems to say that the service sector is growing faster than the goods sector in the economy. Then it's compared to a static snapshot of the SP500 composition. A little apples/oranges maybe? Why not compare it to the "valued added" to the SP500 by both categories to verify w...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jul 15, 2016 4:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: optimal Frequency for for periodic investment in a taxable account
Replies: 28
Views: 3725

Re: optimal Frequency for for periodic investment in a taxable account

It's mostly a matter of convenience, but I prefer having fewer tax lots in my taxable accounts. I move money over to Vanguard MM every payday, then make one buy in each of the two funds I'm accumulating in for that account per quarter, so twice a quarter I'll actually invest the money. That may be s...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jul 14, 2016 3:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How saving too much can make your retirement less satisfying"
Replies: 52
Views: 7412

Re: "How saving too much can make your retirement less satisfying"

We'll see what happens when I retire, but one of the things I've learned in this journey is that for me, I became much more happy/content with the simpler lifestyle that resulted from my transforming from mainly a consumer to mainly a saver. So when people look at me aghast and say, "OMG, you'l...
by IlliniDave
Sun Jul 03, 2016 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement
Replies: 105
Views: 9014

Re: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement

60/40 is certainly in the range of what seems reasonable to me. Wellington Fund is close to that, and that's the current top choice on my short list for the eventuality I decide to throw everything from my retirement accounts into one fund at some point. Really what matters most is if 60/40 suits yo...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 30, 2016 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total return vs Liability driven investing
Replies: 7
Views: 633

Re: Total return vs Liability driven investing

I'm not familiar with the book. My perspective is that the so-called 'total return' strategy is perfectly acceptable, so there is certainly no need to make a change from what you are doing just because someone has an idea they wrote a book about. There's a number of ways to handle the distribution p...
by IlliniDave
Sun Jun 26, 2016 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Event-driven rebalancing? Sounds like market timing
Replies: 20
Views: 1527

Re: Event-driven rebalancing? Sounds like market timing

Market timing, especially the unbridled form (either "in" the market or "out" of the market), is unlikely to be an optimal lifelong strategy. Taking a small action like rebalancing or even a little AA nudge in an attempt to take advantage of favorable opportunities while technica...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brexit: What does Vanguard think?
Replies: 29
Views: 5496

Re: Brexit: What does Vanguard think?

I managed to get through the day without doing anything. I wasn't close to being able to do any TLH-ing. I could have done an opportunistic rebalace per the RBD strategy, but I didn't.
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 22, 2016 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 5080

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

Why do you think share issuance would have been $0 if dividends had been used instead? It's hard to verify a hypothetical, but what if it would have been exactly $0.25? That 0.25 difference did have a positive impact on the company's business; worst case, it replaced compensation paid in another fo...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 5080

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

So seeing the net as in the OP is good, but it would also be interesting to see the difference between the net and gross that, from a common shareholders perspective, sort of vanishes. If the net/gross ratio is high, then buybacks could be a good deal for taxable shareholders. Not exactly sure what...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 22, 2016 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 5080

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

My question would be: how reliable are the figures for return due to buyback and what is the efficiency (i.e., what percent of the buybacks are offset by new issues or just handed to executives as compensation). Maybe all that is well accounted for. In the data on share buybacks, one has to disting...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 22, 2016 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 162
Views: 16614

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

The subject question is pretty open-ended. "Ideal" would presumably mean optimal for the retiree which is a hugely individual consideration. "Safe" is also relative, and difficult to quantify. I can only speak for myself where 33X-40X expected average annual spending from assets ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 22, 2016 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 5080

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

I've seen this kind of strange math (combining dividends with net buybacks) for a while now, this left me cold to begin with, this continues to leave me cold. Buybacks affect prices, but so are many other factors, and there is just no way to distinguish one from the other. I think this is an ill-fa...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jun 21, 2016 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage and Lifetime Asset Allocation
Replies: 18
Views: 1164

Re: Mortgage and Lifetime Asset Allocation

I'm a shameless mental accounter. I would tend to (and did, but I no longer have a mortgage) associate my mortgage with my home, and like my home, not mix it up with my invested financial assets. The fungible nature of money is a nice abstract concept, but I never found it routinely useful for manag...
by IlliniDave
Sat Jun 18, 2016 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Only buying during crashes - return?
Replies: 34
Views: 3210

Re: Only buying during crashes - return?

There's basically three of them in the last 29 years, which is a good chunk of an investor's horizon. The big crashes tend to happen over the course of a couple years. Jumping in at -20% means you might have another 20-30% to lose right off without any of the gains in the years leading up to offset ...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 17, 2016 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point (if any) would you change your AA?
Replies: 23
Views: 1501

Re: At what point (if any) would you change your AA?

There are a coupla three things over and above the fact that I'm on a loose preplanned glide path due to age and proximity to retirement: The main one would be a major change in my present situation, which would at least lead me to consider deviating from my current basic AA. The second is that, for...
by IlliniDave
Tue May 17, 2016 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those of you in the Accumulation Phase - How often do you check?
Replies: 62
Views: 5177

Re: For those of you in the Accumulation Phase - How often do you check?

I check at least a couple times a week minimum because of identity theft concerns (or so I tell myself ;) ) When I was a young accumulator it wasn't uncommon for me to go a year or more without really paying attention. Now as a relatively late accumulator I'm a little more interested in how things a...
by IlliniDave
Mon May 16, 2016 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The inventor of the 401(k) says he created a ‘monster’
Replies: 28
Views: 4922

Re: The inventor of the 401(k) says he created a ‘monster’

I too have an employer with a great plan. I know some plans are substandard, but the monster has been very good to me and many people I know.
by IlliniDave
Sun May 15, 2016 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 401(k) in a 28% bracket thoughts
Replies: 14
Views: 1882

Re: Roth 401(k) in a 28% bracket thoughts

That seems to be right (OP). The only caveat might be that if you don't have much room in the 25% bracket and stack enough additional years of traditional in there, you might not be able to convert it all at the lower rate within the 15 years. I applied the same thought exercise to my own situation ...
by IlliniDave
Thu May 12, 2016 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Carl Icahn Is Betting Big on a Stock Market Crash
Replies: 32
Views: 7402

Re: Carl Icahn Is Betting Big on a Stock Market Crash

I'm about 70% bullish/neutral and 30% bearish. Hence my AA.
by IlliniDave
Thu May 12, 2016 4:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ Article Dividends Aren't the Answer, They're the Problem
Replies: 57
Views: 9273

Re: WSJ Article Dividends Aren't the Answer, They're the Problem

I'm hoping to get my withdrawal rate down to ~2% for ER. That way, I get to spend "just my dividend 'problem' " and be a "total return" investor all at the same time. I have no qualms about enjoying the best of both worlds. The cost, of course, is that you end up having worked l...
by IlliniDave
Wed May 11, 2016 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ Article Dividends Aren't the Answer, They're the Problem
Replies: 57
Views: 9273

Re: WSJ Article Dividends Aren't the Answer, They're the Problem

I'm hoping to get my withdrawal rate down to ~2% for ER. That way, I get to spend "just my dividend 'problem'" and be a "total return" investor all at the same time. I have no qualms about enjoying the best of both worlds.
by IlliniDave
Tue May 10, 2016 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Farmers? Question about Leasing Land
Replies: 12
Views: 2137

Re: Any Farmers? Question about Leasing Land

There are two small pieces of farm property in my family. One that belongs to my dad, and another that was passed from my grandfather to my mom and her sister. Both have had steady lessees for decades, with no interruptions I'm aware of. But I think one of the keys is that in neither case were the l...
by IlliniDave
Tue May 10, 2016 5:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: liquid cash in retirement: keep 2-3 years of expenses?!
Replies: 17
Views: 2764

Re: liquid cash in retirement: keep 2-3 years of expenses?!

Having 5-10% (~1-2 year's worth) of portfolio in short-term, cash-like instruments is pretty standard advice for retirees. These guys are a little more conservative, and except for not being a high bravado approach, I don't see a huge issue with it. I'm skeptical that it will negate the volatility o...
by IlliniDave
Sun May 08, 2016 4:23 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: HAPPY BIRTHDAY, MR. BOGLE! May 8, 2016
Replies: 52
Views: 3560

Re: HAPPY BIRTHDAY, MR. BOGLE! May 8, 2016

Many happy returns of the day to Mr. Bogle!
by IlliniDave
Sat May 07, 2016 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taxable Account - Bonds - Diversification vs. Tax
Replies: 47
Views: 5894

Re: Taxable Account - Bonds - Diversification vs. Tax

For me it's all about tax at this point, so what bonds I do have in my taxable account are tax-exempt. I really don't "need" bonds in taxable, but I use them for the second-tier of my emergency fund, and I like having some relatively stable assets in that account. Diversification. In my 40...
by IlliniDave
Fri May 06, 2016 4:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does Market Analysis affect your investment?
Replies: 9
Views: 751

Re: How does Market Analysis affect your investment?

I don't spend tons of time researching the topic. But one can't help hearing the many opinions of lower future returns. It has not affected how I invest because I don't see a prudent way to force the future to behave like the past (or in any other manner I might want). The effect such analysis has h...
by IlliniDave
Fri May 06, 2016 4:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The crossover point [When can you retire?]
Replies: 59
Views: 10018

Re: The crossover point

I do my own calculation that takes into account other income sources (retirement annuity and SS) and compare my portfolio's income generating ability (based on a steady 3% withdrawal rate) to my current spending less the other income sources. I went "positive" about 2 months ago (yay!). I ...
by IlliniDave
Mon May 02, 2016 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's a typical pension funding % ?
Replies: 30
Views: 3730

Re: What's a typical pension funding % ?

I don't remember the exact numbers, but my company's statement came out today on the website and both the adjusted and unadjusted percentages of target were over 100% (I want to think about 103% and about 117%). I don't know if what they called "funding target" refers to something differen...
by IlliniDave
Mon May 02, 2016 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard pushing active management?
Replies: 18
Views: 2260

Re: Vanguard pushing active management?

To my eye, Vanguard "active" funds in the aggregate (at least those I've looked at) seem to exist significantly on the passive side of the non-index fund continuum. In that small space is where I believe non-index funds can be competitive with index funds over the long haul after expenses....
by IlliniDave
Fri Apr 29, 2016 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Markets Have ‘Borrowed’ Returns from the Future”
Replies: 17
Views: 2764

Re: “Markets Have ‘Borrowed’ Returns from the Future”

I don't understand enough about QE and what its role is to comment about it specifically, but any time PEs get above historical means I see it in exactly those terms--future returns have been borrowed (or collected early). Mean reversion is "paying them back". Conversely, when markets cras...
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 27, 2016 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not ETFs?
Replies: 57
Views: 4326

Re: Why not ETFs?

Very much like nisiprius said several items down his list, I started in a 401k with only mutual fund options, started a little taxable investing before there was such a thing as an ETF, and continue to go with the "product" I am comfortable with. To this day I have never simply bought a sh...
by IlliniDave
Sun Apr 24, 2016 4:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how do people keep AA constant with ongoing contributions?
Replies: 23
Views: 2078

Re: how do people keep AA constant with ongoing contributions?

I don't fret over excessive AA precision. +/- 10% either way in overall allocation really doesn't make a huge difference to me. So I just do the best I can and accept that I'll drift at times. If something seems to be lagging I direct more new money into it and let it go at that. If stocks go on a m...
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 20, 2016 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different look at the Shiller CAPE 10
Replies: 29
Views: 2864

Re: A different look at the Shiller CAPE 10

That was a good read. I'm glad I haven't stuffed everything in my mattress yet.
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 20, 2016 6:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1004
Views: 155337

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

This is ballpark, using a computation by fidelity and an estimate based on the data Vanguard supplies (dunno why they can't do a better job of computing a person's performance). I'm up 3.2% for the year, which feels like a miracle after the last couple years. Some of my play money bets inside my lit...
by IlliniDave
Sun Apr 17, 2016 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Got a Question for Jack Bogle? Post it Here.
Replies: 82
Views: 9193

Re: Got a Question for Jack Bogle? Post it Here.

Index funds have enjoyed remarkable growth/inflows in recent years. Is there a point at which they become too large to be effective. I don't mean taking over the market until it's 100% indexed, rather I've heard other "criticisms" tossed about. Things like excess "concentration risk&q...
by IlliniDave
Fri Apr 15, 2016 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If wall street is rigged and corrupt , why invest in it?
Replies: 64
Views: 5373

Re: If wall street is rigged and corrupt , why invest in it?

I don't think you can say wall street is rigged. There are corrupt elements, sure. There are certain "games" that go on in the world of money that probably are rigged to favor the house. The trick is to avoid playing those games. That's why we hear over-and-over from the good actors in the...
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 14, 2016 8:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When was the most stressful financial time in your life?
Replies: 94
Views: 11435

Re: When was the most stressful financial time in your life?

Going through divorce and the first year or two after as an almost-broke full-time single parent with a heavy debt load. What I learned (limited to the general realm of finance): -While it's true you only live once, it's also true a dollar only spends once, and nothing about the future is guaranteed...
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 14, 2016 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Spartan 500 Index Fund Dividend
Replies: 73
Views: 5459

Re: Fidelity Spartan 500 Index Fund Dividend

What I don't understand is how can Fidelity have a loss (if that's the case) and VTI not (they distributed dividends). Basically the same fund. Can think of a couple plausible things: It could be that fund flows into/out of the two funds are different enough that Fidelity was (possibly) forced to r...
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 14, 2016 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Spartan 500 Index Fund Dividend
Replies: 73
Views: 5459

Re: Fidelity Spartan 500 Index Fund Dividend

What I don't understand is how can Fidelity have a loss (if that's the case) and VTI not (they distributed dividends). Basically the same fund. Can think of a couple plausible things: It could be that fund flows into/out of the two funds are different enough that Fidelity was (possibly) forced to r...
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 14, 2016 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dealing with volatility
Replies: 8
Views: 1006

Re: Dealing with volatility

I like these sorts of charts. It's a lesson that gets reinforced over time, and even though I'm approaching 30 years as an investor in US equities, it helps to see a graphical reminder. Nothing's guaranteed, of course, but it's good to recall that rough seas don't necessarily signal the end of the w...
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 14, 2016 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you measure which retirement income strategy is best? By Michael Kitces
Replies: 21
Views: 2232

Re: How do you measure which retirement income strategy is best? By Michael Kitces

It's a somewhat different/interesting way to visualize, but the differences in the three options make it a comparison between apples, oranges and bananas. But with a set of options it makes more sense to compare, you get a nice at-a-glance view across a number of dimensions. I've given a lot of thou...
by IlliniDave
Tue Apr 12, 2016 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Dividends a Substitute for Value?
Replies: 20
Views: 1458

Re: Are Dividends a Substitute for Value?

I kind of think of it the other way around, having some value index assets gives me a somewhat better dividend yield (in my tax-deferred/tax exempt accounts) which makes me feel like I'm "not missing anything" when talking with the number of people I know who are dedicated dividend investo...
by IlliniDave
Sat Apr 09, 2016 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you use emerging markets bonds? If so, why?
Replies: 18
Views: 1807

Re: Do you use emerging markets bonds? If so, why?

I don't, simply because I don't see where they fit in for me. I'm sure they're a fine asset class for those who have a niche for them.
by IlliniDave
Fri Apr 08, 2016 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement
Replies: 32
Views: 3178

Re: Retirement

I am only 31 yrs. old so retirement for me is still a ways away. I was curious if you've ever met a person that simply does not want to retire b/c they love their job so much? Is this normal? I don't know that there is a "normal" for this. My dad was like that (taught chemistry at a CC), ...
by IlliniDave
Fri Apr 08, 2016 4:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is TLH too much work for you?
Replies: 32
Views: 3095

Re: Is TLH too much work for you?

This year I harvested enough losses to reduce my taxes by somewhere between $165 and $308. It took about 10 minutes. That corresponds to between $990/hr and $1,848/hr. I don't think anything is too much work for that kind of a tax-free hourly rate. :)
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads too conservative?
Replies: 135
Views: 14874

Re: Are Bogleheads too conservative?

Smart bogleheads are right at the point on the conservative-risky continuum that best fits their personal needs, aspirations, and temperaments. There is little uniformity among us, aside from being generally attuned to the effect of investment costs and the benefits of investing in relatively passiv...
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 50/ can I cross the finish line?
Replies: 51
Views: 7136

Re: 50/ can I cross the finish line?

I'm surprised so many people are in the dark about the cost of health care. I know exactly what health care costs because I'm already paying it. It's $1000 a month for a family of six pre-tax plus $6750 a year pre-tax. Total- $18K a year pre-tax, or something like $10K a year after-tax. I could pro...
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 07, 2016 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you planning to leave an "estate"?
Replies: 74
Views: 7665

Re: Are you planning to leave an "estate"?

I thought some more about this after I initially answered above. Aside from the age old "tradition" of such things, I guess I feel an amount of duty to at least try to pass something forward. I am at the young tail of baby boomers, and my generation has some ongoing complicity in passing t...

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