Search found 1989 matches

by IlliniDave
Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Idea behind investing is NOT to get rich...
Replies: 51
Views: 8865

Re: Idea behind investing is NOT to get rich...

To me, not getting poor is being rich. :beer
by IlliniDave
Thu Nov 10, 2016 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 204
Views: 25666

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

I admit I didn't read the article, but I'm probably in the stealth wealth category, at least stealth moderate wealth. It's not something I do on purpose to disguise things, it's just that my tastes have always been relatively simple and I don't have a huge urge to spend money just because I can. I'v...
by IlliniDave
Sat Oct 29, 2016 5:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I take out a 401k loan? Panicking
Replies: 12
Views: 1567

Re: Should I take out a 401k loan? Panicking

First I would say are you sure the only assets you have available are the 401k? If you focused on it, how fast could you pay off the CC balance without the loan? As long as you can pay back the loan and continue regular contributions it wouldn't be the worlds worst idea. I'd also suggest going forwa...
by IlliniDave
Tue Oct 18, 2016 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Buckets?
Replies: 12
Views: 1250

Re: Investment Buckets?

I don't think of bucket approach as a single thing, but a continuum of approaches where a person tries to connect the real world to an AA decision. I consider LMP to be a bucket approach as well, although that may not be strictly correct. Such approaches have value to me for arriving at how much of ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Sep 28, 2016 4:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you own Vanguard Total Stock Market, do you re-invest dividends?
Replies: 75
Views: 9296

Re: If you own Vanguard Total Stock Market, do you re-invest dividends?

rob wrote:In taxable accounts I never reinvest as it creates too many tax lots.... for tax deferred I always reinvest and just exchange to re-balance as needed.


This is exactly what I do.
by IlliniDave
Thu Sep 22, 2016 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I guess we better peek when it comes to Vanguard
Replies: 37
Views: 5448

Re: I guess we better peek when it comes to Vanguard

Just because of the growing threat of ID theft and hacking I check everything fairly regularly. I've never had an issue with Vanguard making an error, nor Fidelity, but I did catch a substantial error made by my bank once a number of years ago--they keyed in a $200 check I wrote as $2000. They were ...
by IlliniDave
Sun Aug 28, 2016 5:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to Tell if Your Retirement Nest Egg Is Big Enough"
Replies: 61
Views: 13728

Re: "How to Tell if Your Retirement Nest Egg Is Big Enough"

This is probably the first time I've ever read something by Dr. Bernstein and came away more encouraged than discouraged/fearful! I'm planning to retire early and and am in a situation where my RLE from retirement day (somewhere between age 52.5 and 55) and 70 is much higher than my RLE from 70 onwa...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 25, 2016 3:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High income, confused, trying to get a plan in place.
Replies: 25
Views: 3374

Re: High income, confused, trying to get a plan in place.

In terms of the first question--it might be an interesting curiosity but knowing what one "should have" accumulated, but if there even is such a number, it doesn't have much value going forward. If you go by conventional wisdom, you would want to have at least 25x what you want to withdraw...
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 22, 2016 4:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends, and the curse of popularity
Replies: 91
Views: 6925

Re: Dividends, and the curse of popularity

I think this falls under the live-and-let-live category. My dad left a corporate career after a couple years to be a teacher. Arguably that cost him a heap-ton of money over the years. He also did not pursue a Wall St/investment management career, which probably cost him far more money than bailing ...
by IlliniDave
Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Freedom?
Replies: 13
Views: 1639

Re: Financial Freedom?

Been thinking about retiring early, basically due to stress which comes from my job. I'm 55 years old and can collect a healthy pension and have my health care mostly covered (I pay $400/month) Not super rich compared to many posters on this site but I do have about 1.2 M in retirement savings. No ...
by IlliniDave
Sat Aug 20, 2016 5:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401K Fees [401(k) Lawsuits increasing due to fiduciary standard]
Replies: 27
Views: 1793

Re: 401K FEE'S

This article appeared in Bloomberg yesterday. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-18/more-employers-are-worried-about-screwing-up-your-401-k A push to improve retirement savings plans is all good. What’s too bad is that much of the impetus behind the move isn’t tied to a desire to do the...
by IlliniDave
Fri Aug 19, 2016 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you know if you're taking on too much risk?
Replies: 14
Views: 1392

Re: How do you know if you're taking on too much risk?

The whole need, ability, willingness mantra never resonated with me. Nothing wrong with it for those for whom it yields answers. When I apply it to myself it winds up simply coming down to willingness. Same for the survey "tools" that attempt to quantify risk tolerance. I know how to answe...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 18, 2016 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?
Replies: 206
Views: 21607

Re: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?

Do you think the factors/reasons that cause wealthy to become poor are a subset of the factors/reasons that cause the poor to stay poor? The documentary mentioned in my previous post says this better than I. As for making this actionable, I agree with what you said in your last paragraph. Yes, more...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 18, 2016 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most Investors Won't Outperform this Simple Portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 2731

Re: Most Investors Won't Outperform this Simple Portfolio

A bit of a quibble, but the 90%/10% attributed to Buffet was instructions on how to set up a trust of presumably > $1B for his widow, not generic advice for all investors.
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?
Replies: 206
Views: 21607

Re: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?

ironically a lot of the ideas here that apply to the super rich here apply to low income folks too. I'm sorry but I have to disagree here. The super rich whose generational wealth is maintained and increased, usually by companies & firms, have it very different. Unfortunately, the current rewar...
by IlliniDave
Tue Aug 16, 2016 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Knowing what you know now...
Replies: 22
Views: 2612

Re: Knowing what you know now...

I'll be the contrarian. Yes, I definitely would do things differently if I had a do-over. I did have "fun" as a young man, but I would trade most of that for a higher level of happiness throughout my adult life. I'm planning on an ER anyway, but a decade of "fun" wasn't worth the...
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 15, 2016 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?
Replies: 304
Views: 42812

Re: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?

I come from the wrong side of the tracks (river, actually) in a rust belt city so my aspirations are more modest than most here. Something over a year ago I hit the FI point where I'm confident that should employment end today I'll never have to live under a bridge or eat pet food short of a catacly...
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 15, 2016 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?
Replies: 139
Views: 15685

Re: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?

I may have participated in this discussion in the past, but that would have been last year. I'm still using 3.5% real for my baseline/conservative return rate. ~70/30 portfolio with about 35% of equity overseas and tilted slightly towards EM; and domestic equity tilted slightly SV. I also run the nu...
by IlliniDave
Sun Aug 14, 2016 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confession~ I timed the market today
Replies: 31
Views: 3532

Re: Confession~ I timed the market today

This wouldn't fall under what I consider "market timing" in the way that's preached against by folks like Bogle. If you'd have dumped all your stocks into bonds and cash, then planned to sit around and wait for a good time to buy back in--that's market timing. Just picking what you feel is...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 11, 2016 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?
Replies: 71
Views: 3707

Re: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?

I have a PE level where I might contemplate a slight downward adjustment in my US equity AA, but we're not there yet (and a higher level where it is mandatory I make a larger adjustment). That said, I've been on a casual glide path from 80/20 to 70/30 for almost 2 years now. That has most of my new ...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 04, 2016 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gifting equally when children are in very different tax brackets?
Replies: 19
Views: 2634

Re: Gifting equally when children are in very different tax brackets?

Since it a gift and not a debt, the giver is free to do what they think is right. To reiterate, neither of them should pay any tax on the gift, so if you desire equal net dollars then give them equal gross dollars. You can't fund their Roth's directly, but if you want them to use the gift for that i...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 04, 2016 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9405

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

Like a lot of things, it depends. It depends on how flexible/inflexible you are with your lifestyle, how long the money will have to last, what odds of having to scale back lifestyle do to shortfall are you willing to take on. I think there's good reason for a potential early retiree to consider 3% ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Aug 03, 2016 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often are stocks at 'all time' highs?
Replies: 11
Views: 1193

Re: How often are stocks at 'all time' highs?

Yes, that's what I was driving at, since media use the language 'All-Time Highs' for other things like temperature, rainfall, crime, etc. which should typically be somewhere closer to All-Time Averages, so when they actually are at All-Time Highs, it's a big deal. Stocks are supposed to be somewhat...
by IlliniDave
Wed Aug 03, 2016 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often are stocks at 'all time' highs?
Replies: 11
Views: 1193

Re: How often are stocks at 'all time' highs?

Since I started investing the SP500 has reached a new "all-time high" 67 times according to the granularity of this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closing_milestones_of_the_S%26P_500 That's an average of a little > 2x/year. In reality it is more because new "all-time highs" were ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jul 27, 2016 4:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?
Replies: 110
Views: 7710

Re: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?

That's interesting. We have several things in common. You might wish to consider even more aggressive Roth conversions, and earlier than 70. If you can suppress your AGI by mid-sixties, you will save on medicare premiums, save taxes on SS @ 67 (if married with low earning spouse - the repeal of fil...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jul 26, 2016 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?
Replies: 110
Views: 7710

Re: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?

Thanks for posting Dave. I would be interested in how you intend to accomplish this? Would you divide your assets into two families, one at say 60/40 and the other at 100/0? Hi NMJack, thanks for the kind words. Dividing the money would be preferable (convenience). I hope to have that accomplished ...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jul 26, 2016 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?
Replies: 110
Views: 7710

Re: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?

It's likely I'll wind up on the rising equity path. I'm planning to use a semi-LMP, semi-bucket approach. In short, a fraction of my assets will be invested with an AA primarily as suits the age of my heirs: for growth. The rest will be invested more conservatively AA-wise for me to spend down as I ...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jul 22, 2016 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Market Increasingly Detached from U.S. Economy
Replies: 19
Views: 2588

Re: U.S. Stock Market Increasingly Detached from U.S. Economy

The figure just seems to say that the service sector is growing faster than the goods sector in the economy. Then it's compared to a static snapshot of the SP500 composition. A little apples/oranges maybe? Why not compare it to the "valued added" to the SP500 by both categories to verify w...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jul 15, 2016 4:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: optimal Frequency for for periodic investment in a taxable account
Replies: 28
Views: 3926

Re: optimal Frequency for for periodic investment in a taxable account

It's mostly a matter of convenience, but I prefer having fewer tax lots in my taxable accounts. I move money over to Vanguard MM every payday, then make one buy in each of the two funds I'm accumulating in for that account per quarter, so twice a quarter I'll actually invest the money. That may be s...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jul 14, 2016 3:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How saving too much can make your retirement less satisfying"
Replies: 52
Views: 8112

Re: "How saving too much can make your retirement less satisfying"

We'll see what happens when I retire, but one of the things I've learned in this journey is that for me, I became much more happy/content with the simpler lifestyle that resulted from my transforming from mainly a consumer to mainly a saver. So when people look at me aghast and say, "OMG, you'l...
by IlliniDave
Sun Jul 03, 2016 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement
Replies: 105
Views: 9859

Re: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement

60/40 is certainly in the range of what seems reasonable to me. Wellington Fund is close to that, and that's the current top choice on my short list for the eventuality I decide to throw everything from my retirement accounts into one fund at some point. Really what matters most is if 60/40 suits yo...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 30, 2016 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total return vs Liability driven investing
Replies: 7
Views: 698

Re: Total return vs Liability driven investing

I'm not familiar with the book. My perspective is that the so-called 'total return' strategy is perfectly acceptable, so there is certainly no need to make a change from what you are doing just because someone has an idea they wrote a book about. There's a number of ways to handle the distribution p...
by IlliniDave
Sun Jun 26, 2016 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Event-driven rebalancing? Sounds like market timing
Replies: 20
Views: 1674

Re: Event-driven rebalancing? Sounds like market timing

Market timing, especially the unbridled form (either "in" the market or "out" of the market), is unlikely to be an optimal lifelong strategy. Taking a small action like rebalancing or even a little AA nudge in an attempt to take advantage of favorable opportunities while technica...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brexit: What does Vanguard think?
Replies: 29
Views: 5686

Re: Brexit: What does Vanguard think?

I managed to get through the day without doing anything. I wasn't close to being able to do any TLH-ing. I could have done an opportunistic rebalace per the RBD strategy, but I didn't.
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 22, 2016 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 5778

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

Why do you think share issuance would have been $0 if dividends had been used instead? It's hard to verify a hypothetical, but what if it would have been exactly $0.25? That 0.25 difference did have a positive impact on the company's business; worst case, it replaced compensation paid in another fo...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 5778

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

So seeing the net as in the OP is good, but it would also be interesting to see the difference between the net and gross that, from a common shareholders perspective, sort of vanishes. If the net/gross ratio is high, then buybacks could be a good deal for taxable shareholders. Not exactly sure what...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 22, 2016 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 5778

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

My question would be: how reliable are the figures for return due to buyback and what is the efficiency (i.e., what percent of the buybacks are offset by new issues or just handed to executives as compensation). Maybe all that is well accounted for. In the data on share buybacks, one has to disting...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 22, 2016 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 162
Views: 18062

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

The subject question is pretty open-ended. "Ideal" would presumably mean optimal for the retiree which is a hugely individual consideration. "Safe" is also relative, and difficult to quantify. I can only speak for myself where 33X-40X expected average annual spending from assets ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 22, 2016 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 5778

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

I've seen this kind of strange math (combining dividends with net buybacks) for a while now, this left me cold to begin with, this continues to leave me cold. Buybacks affect prices, but so are many other factors, and there is just no way to distinguish one from the other. I think this is an ill-fa...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jun 21, 2016 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage and Lifetime Asset Allocation
Replies: 18
Views: 1294

Re: Mortgage and Lifetime Asset Allocation

I'm a shameless mental accounter. I would tend to (and did, but I no longer have a mortgage) associate my mortgage with my home, and like my home, not mix it up with my invested financial assets. The fungible nature of money is a nice abstract concept, but I never found it routinely useful for manag...
by IlliniDave
Sat Jun 18, 2016 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Only buying during crashes - return?
Replies: 34
Views: 3393

Re: Only buying during crashes - return?

There's basically three of them in the last 29 years, which is a good chunk of an investor's horizon. The big crashes tend to happen over the course of a couple years. Jumping in at -20% means you might have another 20-30% to lose right off without any of the gains in the years leading up to offset ...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 17, 2016 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point (if any) would you change your AA?
Replies: 23
Views: 1672

Re: At what point (if any) would you change your AA?

There are a coupla three things over and above the fact that I'm on a loose preplanned glide path due to age and proximity to retirement: The main one would be a major change in my present situation, which would at least lead me to consider deviating from my current basic AA. The second is that, for...
by IlliniDave
Tue May 17, 2016 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those of you in the Accumulation Phase - How often do you check?
Replies: 62
Views: 5602

Re: For those of you in the Accumulation Phase - How often do you check?

I check at least a couple times a week minimum because of identity theft concerns (or so I tell myself ;) ) When I was a young accumulator it wasn't uncommon for me to go a year or more without really paying attention. Now as a relatively late accumulator I'm a little more interested in how things a...
by IlliniDave
Mon May 16, 2016 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The inventor of the 401(k) says he created a ‘monster’
Replies: 28
Views: 5127

Re: The inventor of the 401(k) says he created a ‘monster’

I too have an employer with a great plan. I know some plans are substandard, but the monster has been very good to me and many people I know.
by IlliniDave
Sun May 15, 2016 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 401(k) in a 28% bracket thoughts
Replies: 14
Views: 2048

Re: Roth 401(k) in a 28% bracket thoughts

That seems to be right (OP). The only caveat might be that if you don't have much room in the 25% bracket and stack enough additional years of traditional in there, you might not be able to convert it all at the lower rate within the 15 years. I applied the same thought exercise to my own situation ...
by IlliniDave
Thu May 12, 2016 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Carl Icahn Is Betting Big on a Stock Market Crash
Replies: 32
Views: 7712

Re: Carl Icahn Is Betting Big on a Stock Market Crash

I'm about 70% bullish/neutral and 30% bearish. Hence my AA.
by IlliniDave
Thu May 12, 2016 4:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ Article Dividends Aren't the Answer, They're the Problem
Replies: 57
Views: 9608

Re: WSJ Article Dividends Aren't the Answer, They're the Problem

I'm hoping to get my withdrawal rate down to ~2% for ER. That way, I get to spend "just my dividend 'problem' " and be a "total return" investor all at the same time. I have no qualms about enjoying the best of both worlds. The cost, of course, is that you end up having worked l...
by IlliniDave
Wed May 11, 2016 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ Article Dividends Aren't the Answer, They're the Problem
Replies: 57
Views: 9608

Re: WSJ Article Dividends Aren't the Answer, They're the Problem

I'm hoping to get my withdrawal rate down to ~2% for ER. That way, I get to spend "just my dividend 'problem'" and be a "total return" investor all at the same time. I have no qualms about enjoying the best of both worlds.
by IlliniDave
Tue May 10, 2016 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Farmers? Question about Leasing Land
Replies: 12
Views: 2232

Re: Any Farmers? Question about Leasing Land

There are two small pieces of farm property in my family. One that belongs to my dad, and another that was passed from my grandfather to my mom and her sister. Both have had steady lessees for decades, with no interruptions I'm aware of. But I think one of the keys is that in neither case were the l...
by IlliniDave
Tue May 10, 2016 5:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: liquid cash in retirement: keep 2-3 years of expenses?!
Replies: 17
Views: 2896

Re: liquid cash in retirement: keep 2-3 years of expenses?!

Having 5-10% (~1-2 year's worth) of portfolio in short-term, cash-like instruments is pretty standard advice for retirees. These guys are a little more conservative, and except for not being a high bravado approach, I don't see a huge issue with it. I'm skeptical that it will negate the volatility o...

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