Search found 2088 matches

by IlliniDave
Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retired Boglehead obsession with money- devil's advocate
Replies: 66
Views: 6604

Re: Retired Boglehead obsession with money- devil's advocate

Part of it is probably a sense of stewardship--for most of us it takes a lot of effort through many decades to "win the game", and it's maybe a form of self respect to tend assets carefully. I also think it truly becomes a hobby for many. Worry also has a lot of shades of meaning, ranging from simpl...
by IlliniDave
Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard seeks corporate disclosure re climate change risks
Replies: 2
Views: 441

Re: Vanguard seeks corporate disclosure re climate change risks

My first thought is that it is probably difficult to know what exactly to base a risk assessment on since I don't know how concretely anyone understands specifically what's going to happen where in the next 5,10,20 years. That would lead me to be a little skeptical of any such assessment. As mostly ...
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?
Replies: 42
Views: 4862

Re: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?

There are all sorts of things that might be true in the future. I'm not overly obsessed with valuations at this moment. For other reasons my plan all along is to save a little more now and plan to spend a little less later, meaning I have a range of options for average withdrawals as a % of starting...
by IlliniDave
Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Rule has changed.....not
Replies: 80
Views: 8090

Re: 4% Rule has changed.....not

If I'm lucky enough to celebrate my 110th birthday, I won't care much if I'm broke. If one lives to 110, odds are we've made tremendous advances in reversing aging. If you're 110 and feel like you're 20, you will likely want to have enough money to enjoy your new youth. Also, the wealthy will be th...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 10, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Index Funds Evil?
Replies: 30
Views: 3557

Re: Are Index Funds Evil?

There seems to be an underlying assumption that companies operate their business with the mom and pop shareholders' interest in mind. It's more likely they operate to financially engineer for maximum executive compensation. No executive in an industry is going to willingly stand by let his rival bea...
by IlliniDave
Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Rule has changed.....not
Replies: 80
Views: 8090

Re: 4% Rule has changed.....not

Does the video assume that a 70 year old keeps all their funds in stock market? Even at 50/50, that would be difficult to get hit with 20% decline, but from what I've seen, people in retirement keep no more than 20% in stocks. Aren't you supposed to be in income funds at that point and not worry ab...
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 07, 2017 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the trend toward index funds mute any bear market?
Replies: 17
Views: 1946

Re: Does the trend toward index funds mute any bear market?

Maybe a trend underlying the trend (the possibility of a growing contingent of buy/hold proponents) could have a small affect on volatility if enough of them are able to stick to it. It could mean a few less sellers out there. But I think that would be a long way from muting a bear market.
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 07, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A poll: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 270
Views: 21073

Re: A poll: How much money do you want to retire?

Well, with no pension or SS I would want ~ $1.5M minimum to retire early. I'm 53 now, single, and planning to leave work at 55. Since I expect a small annuity from my employer and SS, my true minimum number is considerably less than that. I project to have $1.0-$1.2M in invested assets at age 55, wh...
by IlliniDave
Tue Aug 01, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: Look Out When Bonds Pop
Replies: 58
Views: 8144

Re: Greenspan: Look Out When Bonds Pop

Valuethinker, a very good analysis. I pretty much agree with what you said above. Hoping that I can accumulate enough money and retire before the robots take all the jobs! As far as commercial space, I am waiting for dying shopping malls to be repurposed into Amazon Distribution Centers. Again, a g...
by IlliniDave
Tue Aug 01, 2017 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: Look Out When Bonds Pop
Replies: 58
Views: 8144

Re: Greenspan: Look Out When Bonds Pop

What do bonds do when they pop? Seriously, I don't really know what "bond bubble" refers to. Price drops? I keep my durations short enough that I can afford to ride it out. Gov't goes belly up? I probably have bigger problems than what my bond fund is doing. One of the constants in my life...
by IlliniDave
Tue Aug 01, 2017 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it hard to beat the market?
Replies: 45
Views: 3173

Re: Why is it hard to beat the market?

This was discussed in another thread recently but I don't remember which. Most of the gains in a market come from a small minority of the companies. Unless you cast a very wide net it is unlikely you'll get a good sampling of those companies. And the wider your net the more you will converge on mark...
by IlliniDave
Tue Aug 01, 2017 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?
Replies: 90
Views: 8955

Re: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?

I've never fully agreed with the "too few goods and services" definition of inflation. There is another definition (side of) drummed into my head, and that is the "value" aspect of money or money supply side. In economics, what happens to something if you make a lot of it? Toast...
by IlliniDave
Tue Aug 01, 2017 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?
Replies: 90
Views: 8955

Re: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?

I'm sort of gliding from ~75/25 to 65/35, which will be my ER set-point. It's hard to get excited about bonds, but I intend to continue on with my plan for now.
by IlliniDave
Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If You're Uncomfortable With Your AA, Maybe You're In The Right Place
Replies: 26
Views: 2622

Re: If You're Uncomfortable With Your AA, Maybe You're In The Right Place

I remember not long ago on here reading something Bogle is said to have said--that half the time he questioned why he had so much in equities and half the time questioned why he had so little. That's probably a pretty sign of being at a good balance point. I'm getting to the point where I'll have to...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jul 28, 2017 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this advice as reprehensible as I think it is?
Replies: 32
Views: 5207

Re: Is this advice as reprehensible as I think it is?

My opinion: probably not good advice. Incurring unnecessary new debt while retired and in their 70s is I think the opposite of the direction you want to be going (as is leveraged investments) in general. The conventional wisdom is to clean up debt and lower risk at their stage. Reprehensible? That d...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?
Replies: 166
Views: 17744

Re: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?

I'm slowly ratcheting down my stock exposure, something I've been doing for some time due to proximity of my early retirement date. The "unprecedented rise" is something I'm only aware of because throwing all my new contributions into bonds is not moving my AA as much as I would have thoug...
by IlliniDave
Mon Jul 03, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Did You Start Investing Your Own Money?
Replies: 47
Views: 3128

Re: When Did You Start Investing Your Own Money?

Around age 24 using the 401k plan at work. I started saving my second year on the job, once I was confident I could get by on my salary in a somewhat HCOL area. That was almost 30 years ago.
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 30, 2017 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!
Replies: 55
Views: 6680

Re: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!

I suppose at some level I understand I am effectively buying shares in individual companies, but it's not something I dwell on. My goal is to invest in all publicly-traded companies so I tend to think in terms of markets or blocks of companies. I don't think of indexes as entities, they are just lis...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 29, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Jack Bogle have a conundrum on his hands?
Replies: 63
Views: 4340

Re: Does Jack Bogle have a conflict of interest?

Index funds/Vanguard are getting to be the big dog and as people increasingly see them as a threat they throw some really weak sauce against the wall hoping it will stick. I knew nothing of Paul Merriman until his name popped up on the forum a couple of times, but he recommends low-cost index funds...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 29, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Jack Bogle have a conundrum on his hands?
Replies: 63
Views: 4340

Re: Does Jack Bogle have a conflict of interest?

Jack's only conflict of interest is that he likes helping people more than making money. +1 This. His "conflict of interest", by it's design, worked against his own personal financial interest and for that of the clients. An anti-CoI. Index funds/Vanguard are getting to be the big dog and...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jun 13, 2017 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 12987

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

I am tilted towards US 70/30 so I'm in between the US-only and global-market-weight camps. I agree with Bogle that you don't *need* overseas, but think there is some value in having a little hedge. It's clear that Mr. Bogle does not mind that I don't totally agree with him on this point, so I'll ext...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jun 13, 2017 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Do Bogleheads own Stocks?
Replies: 77
Views: 7520

Re: Poll: Do Bogleheads own Stocks?

I had to answer "yes" to stocks because I own 7ish shares of my employer's stock that I got as a cashless redemption of an option grant many years ago (something like 100 shares at a price the stock sunk below and barely got above just as the exercise window was closing). I kept them becau...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jun 13, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite Feature of Vanguard Website?
Replies: 67
Views: 5636

Re: Favorite Feature of Vanguard Website?

I like that the "Account overview" page has a different number for "Total assets" than the "Balances & Holdings" page even though they are the identical set of investments and if I use the "Portfolio Watch" page there is even a third number for the total ...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.
Replies: 25
Views: 3703

Re: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.

What I meant was stock dividend investment strategy. Specifically in a retirement account (to get maximum tax benefits). I learned about it in this book - "Dividend Growth Machine: How to Supercharge Your Investment Returns with Dividend Stocks" - and am now starting to do it myself. When...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jun 06, 2017 6:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.
Replies: 25
Views: 3703

Re: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.

qwertyjazz wrote:I have nothing useful to add. You are very thoughtful and this plan seems well thought out. I just wanted to say that I enjoy your posts.

Thank you
QJ

Thanks QJ!
by IlliniDave
Tue Jun 06, 2017 6:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.
Replies: 25
Views: 3703

Re: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.

I have to say Sir, looking at your assets and retirement description, you've done an excellent job being financially responsible your entire life. I am now 37, and can only hope to achieve the financial opulence which you have described. I am curious, have you ever looked at dividend reinvesting? I...
by IlliniDave
Mon Jun 05, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Received inheritance, feel paralyzed as to what to do next
Replies: 16
Views: 2190

Re: Received inheritance, feel paralyzed as to what to do next

Generally, the advice above is very good. I'll just reemphasize that you should take as much time as you need to be comfortable with what you are doing. Don't let others (even well-meaning people) make you feel pressured to do something before you are ready. As you develop ideas put in a policy wher...
by IlliniDave
Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Milestone
Replies: 44
Views: 4537

Re: New Milestone

Comparing the members of this forum to the U.S. population as a whole is about as close as you can get to a real life Lake Wobegon. If you're anywhere near the two comma club, you are doing better than your cohort average, regardless of age. I remember reading this a few years back (sorry, cannot r...
by IlliniDave
Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Milestone
Replies: 44
Views: 4537

Re: New Milestone

Zillow aside, congrats!!! I was over 50 when I got a second comma for net worth (I use what might be considered excessively conservative estimates for real estate value though). At barely 53 I've yet to get my second comma for financial assets alone, hopeful of getting there by 55 though as I'm les...
by IlliniDave
Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: Stock market will rise 50 percent
Replies: 27
Views: 4239

Re: Shiller: Stock market will rise 50 percent

Eek! Might be time to review my IPS and think about whether I should amend with an acceleration to pre-ER AA change to something a little more conservative. I had PE of 30 as a trigger for a review as well, and the 10-year is inching close. Seeing these sorts of quotes are reminiscent of times past ...
by IlliniDave
Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Milestone
Replies: 44
Views: 4537

Re: New Milestone

Zillow aside, congrats!!! I was over 50 when I got a second comma for net worth (I use what might be considered excessively conservative estimates for real estate value though). At barely 53 I've yet to get my second comma for financial assets alone, hopeful of getting there by 55 though as I'm less...
by IlliniDave
Sun Jun 04, 2017 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index construction and "passive" investing
Replies: 8
Views: 855

Re: Index construction and "passive" investing

One really interesting concept I've come across lately is that the idea of index investing being "passive" is a bit of a fallacy. While tracking an index is mostly a passive process, constructing and updating indexes definitely is not. For example: -The S&P 500 index isn't just a list...
by IlliniDave
Sat Jun 03, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everything keeps going up, this feels too easy?
Replies: 113
Views: 9310

Re: Everything keeps going up, this feels too easy?

For two years now I've been putting the vast majority of new money into bonds and my AA has barely budged. I may have to break down and do an actual directed rebalance sometime this year. Regarding the OP, well, this *is* the easy part--just standing around while the world stuffs money into your poc...
by IlliniDave
Sat Jun 03, 2017 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: WHAT!? Us! Double comma! Can I pull back?
Replies: 27
Views: 4077

Re: WHAT!? Us! Double comma! Can I pull back?

Well, I don't know what parochial school tuition costs in your area but based on your top level numbers it doesn't seem like it should be difficult to cash flow without dialing down on your 401k. That said, you're in pretty good shape so far, and it probably wouldn't cripple your future to reduce 40...
by IlliniDave
Sat Jun 03, 2017 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Murphy's Law Of Retirement
Replies: 56
Views: 8801

Re: Murphy's Law Of Retirement

What does he think people should do, wait around for a crash and then retire? Don't see many people doing that. The first books I read on investing were by Bernstein. If I shared his hyper-conservative outlook I'd work until my late 60s or longer and even then I'd spend all my time cringing and wait...
by IlliniDave
Sat Jun 03, 2017 4:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.
Replies: 25
Views: 3703

Re: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.

The only thing I would be concerned about is making sure I bought the right health insurance plan at the right price until medicare kicks in. ^^^ This. I am at about 20 months and the biggest unkown is what will happen with health care over the next 2 years (I currently plan to use the state Medica...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 02, 2017 4:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.
Replies: 25
Views: 3703

Re: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.

Enjoy fishing I have about 3/4th of your savings, but my 2 pensions will equal about $5k/mo (only 2k no COLA at age 55 and the other 3k w/ COLA at age 59). I will retire at age 55 and hold out until age 59 Pension. Healthcare is the Wildcard for ALL OF US (just remember it hurts less on those who s...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 02, 2017 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.
Replies: 25
Views: 3703

Re: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.

Based on the provided numbers, i think you are in very good shape as many have mentioned. I would be a little concerned about your estimated expenses. You say your current expenses average $33k after-tax (assuming also not including current savings?). You are planning retirement expenses of $40k af...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 02, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.
Replies: 25
Views: 3703

Re: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.

You are in good shape. I do have a question for everyone here: I assume that the OP's $3000 per month SS is based on his current statement. If he retires early, he will have 14-15 more zero years (55 to 70 years old), will that result in a lower monthly payout? Keep in mind it is the highest 35 yea...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 02, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.
Replies: 25
Views: 3703

Re: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.

illinidave: What are you going to do with your time? I look at that being the big issue. I am just finishing the book "The New Retirementality" by Mitch Anthony and I will start a new thread on this book. The book has caused me to take a serious look at my station in life, particularly si...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 02, 2017 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: KF's Worst Case Retirement Plan [KlangFool's]
Replies: 252
Views: 19398

Re: KF's Worst Case Retirement Plan

That's a tough scenario to navigate. Without the mortgage I think you could swing it assuming your medical expenses didn't hit $20K every single year. Considering alternate, lower wage, maybe even part-time employment for a few years might help bridge that gap until SS. Good luck, hope this doesn't ...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 02, 2017 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does a mere mortal navigate healthcare/insurance issues
Replies: 50
Views: 4904

Re: How does a mere mortal navigate healthcare/insurance issues

I could add similar stories that happened both before and after ACA. Along with things during the same time span that that went without any hitch or surprises (ironically, perhaps, my "50th birthday present" was one that went smooth). I roll my eyes whenever someone points to the "fre...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 02, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.
Replies: 25
Views: 3703

Re: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.

The plan is as bulletproof as you can get. The only thing I would be concerned about is making sure I bought the right health insurance plan at the right price until medicare kicks in. I would also loosen the purse strings a little if there's anything at all you wanted to spend money on that you ha...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 02, 2017 10:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.
Replies: 25
Views: 3703

Re: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.

You are in good shape. I do have a question for everyone here: I assume that the OP's $3000 per month SS is based on his current statement. If he retires early, he will have 14-15 more zero years (55 to 70 years old), will that result in a lower monthly payout? I used the calculator on ssa.gov assu...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 02, 2017 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.
Replies: 25
Views: 3703

Early Retirement Plan Check, 2 Years out.

I would be grateful to anyone who would take the time to look at this and provide any comments. Apologies in advance for the lengthy entry. I wouldn't blame anyone for taking a pass on this I recently crossed the "T minus 2 years" threshold in my countdown to early retirement. Due to my pe...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 01, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Drowning in debt
Replies: 52
Views: 5172

Re: Drowning in debt

I'm in the pay off the HELOC camp. Preferably, sell the mystery asset that you borrowed money to buy. If you're emotionally attached to the mystery asset, liquidate part of you taxable investment account to pay for it. But there's a lot of vagueness in the scenario you've laid out, so the confidence...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 01, 2017 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Future Retirement Plan
Replies: 46
Views: 3292

Re: Future Retirement Plan

IlliniDave, <<I think the driver is how confident you are in maintaining the $40K spending level>> 1) Not inflation adjusted. 2) Very confident since we maintained this approximate spending level for the last 10 to 20 years. << The thing that worries me some about my own situation is medical insura...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 01, 2017 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Future Retirement Plan
Replies: 46
Views: 3292

Re: Future Retirement Plan

Folks, Please review and criticize my future retirement plan. 1) Retire at 57 years old with a portfolio of 1.5 million with AA of 60/40 2) 300K Mortgage -> may consider to pay this off at that time. 9 years into 30 years 3.49% fixed rate mortgage. 3) Taxable/Roth/Tax-deferred 25/15/60 4) Annual ex...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 01, 2017 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to Do with Yearly Employer Bonus?
Replies: 10
Views: 1042

Re: What to Do with Yearly Employer Bonus?

At my employer we only get token profit sharing added to one of our biweekly checks. After taxes, the 401 contribution % is taken out and matched as if it were regular pay. The rest I move over to Vanguard and dump in the kitty. The amount has always been between 2% and 4% of base pay, so we're not ...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 01, 2017 7:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why does step-up basis apply to estates, but not gifts?
Replies: 29
Views: 2249

Re: Why does step-up basis apply to estates, but not gifts?

Maybe it's a matter of convenience and compassion that the basis is reset in an estate. It would ultimately require the recipient to know the deceased's cost basis for everything. With investment assets purchased after 2014 the information should be reliably available, but for older financial assets...