Search found 1982 matches

by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 22, 2016 4:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends, and the curse of popularity
Replies: 91
Views: 6133

Re: Dividends, and the curse of popularity

I think this falls under the live-and-let-live category. My dad left a corporate career after a couple years to be a teacher. Arguably that cost him a heap-ton of money over the years. He also did not pursue a Wall St/investment management career, which probably cost him far more money than bailing ...
by IlliniDave
Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Freedom?
Replies: 13
Views: 1423

Re: Financial Freedom?

Been thinking about retiring early, basically due to stress which comes from my job. I'm 55 years old and can collect a healthy pension and have my health care mostly covered (I pay $400/month) Not super rich compared to many posters on this site but I do have about 1.2 M in retirement savings. No ...
by IlliniDave
Sat Aug 20, 2016 5:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401K Fees [401(k) Lawsuits increasing due to fiduciary standard]
Replies: 27
Views: 1470

Re: 401K FEE'S

This article appeared in Bloomberg yesterday. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-18/more-employers-are-worried-about-screwing-up-your-401-k A push to improve retirement savings plans is all good. What’s too bad is that much of the impetus behind the move isn’t tied to a desire to do the...
by IlliniDave
Fri Aug 19, 2016 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you know if you're taking on too much risk?
Replies: 14
Views: 1263

Re: How do you know if you're taking on too much risk?

The whole need, ability, willingness mantra never resonated with me. Nothing wrong with it for those for whom it yields answers. When I apply it to myself it winds up simply coming down to willingness. Same for the survey "tools" that attempt to quantify risk tolerance. I know how to answe...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 18, 2016 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?
Replies: 206
Views: 20015

Re: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?

Do you think the factors/reasons that cause wealthy to become poor are a subset of the factors/reasons that cause the poor to stay poor? The documentary mentioned in my previous post says this better than I. As for making this actionable, I agree with what you said in your last paragraph. Yes, more...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 18, 2016 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most Investors Won't Outperform this Simple Portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 2507

Re: Most Investors Won't Outperform this Simple Portfolio

A bit of a quibble, but the 90%/10% attributed to Buffet was instructions on how to set up a trust of presumably > $1B for his widow, not generic advice for all investors.
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?
Replies: 206
Views: 20015

Re: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?

ironically a lot of the ideas here that apply to the super rich here apply to low income folks too. I'm sorry but I have to disagree here. The super rich whose generational wealth is maintained and increased, usually by companies & firms, have it very different. Unfortunately, the current rewar...
by IlliniDave
Tue Aug 16, 2016 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Knowing what you know now...
Replies: 22
Views: 2418

Re: Knowing what you know now...

I'll be the contrarian. Yes, I definitely would do things differently if I had a do-over. I did have "fun" as a young man, but I would trade most of that for a higher level of happiness throughout my adult life. I'm planning on an ER anyway, but a decade of "fun" wasn't worth the...
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 15, 2016 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?
Replies: 252
Views: 26306

Re: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?

I come from the wrong side of the tracks (river, actually) in a rust belt city so my aspirations are more modest than most here. Something over a year ago I hit the FI point where I'm confident that should employment end today I'll never have to live under a bridge or eat pet food short of a catacly...
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 15, 2016 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?
Replies: 139
Views: 14401

Re: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?

I may have participated in this discussion in the past, but that would have been last year. I'm still using 3.5% real for my baseline/conservative return rate. ~70/30 portfolio with about 35% of equity overseas and tilted slightly towards EM; and domestic equity tilted slightly SV. I also run the nu...
by IlliniDave
Sun Aug 14, 2016 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confession~ I timed the market today
Replies: 31
Views: 3333

Re: Confession~ I timed the market today

This wouldn't fall under what I consider "market timing" in the way that's preached against by folks like Bogle. If you'd have dumped all your stocks into bonds and cash, then planned to sit around and wait for a good time to buy back in--that's market timing. Just picking what you feel is...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 11, 2016 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?
Replies: 71
Views: 3265

Re: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?

I have a PE level where I might contemplate a slight downward adjustment in my US equity AA, but we're not there yet (and a higher level where it is mandatory I make a larger adjustment). That said, I've been on a casual glide path from 80/20 to 70/30 for almost 2 years now. That has most of my new ...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 04, 2016 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gifting equally when children are in very different tax brackets?
Replies: 19
Views: 2523

Re: Gifting equally when children are in very different tax brackets?

Since it a gift and not a debt, the giver is free to do what they think is right. To reiterate, neither of them should pay any tax on the gift, so if you desire equal net dollars then give them equal gross dollars. You can't fund their Roth's directly, but if you want them to use the gift for that i...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 04, 2016 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 8580

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

Like a lot of things, it depends. It depends on how flexible/inflexible you are with your lifestyle, how long the money will have to last, what odds of having to scale back lifestyle do to shortfall are you willing to take on. I think there's good reason for a potential early retiree to consider 3% ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Aug 03, 2016 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often are stocks at 'all time' highs?
Replies: 11
Views: 1128

Re: How often are stocks at 'all time' highs?

Yes, that's what I was driving at, since media use the language 'All-Time Highs' for other things like temperature, rainfall, crime, etc. which should typically be somewhere closer to All-Time Averages, so when they actually are at All-Time Highs, it's a big deal. Stocks are supposed to be somewhat...
by IlliniDave
Wed Aug 03, 2016 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often are stocks at 'all time' highs?
Replies: 11
Views: 1128

Re: How often are stocks at 'all time' highs?

Since I started investing the SP500 has reached a new "all-time high" 67 times according to the granularity of this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closing_milestones_of_the_S%26P_500 That's an average of a little > 2x/year. In reality it is more because new "all-time highs" were ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jul 27, 2016 4:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?
Replies: 110
Views: 7087

Re: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?

That's interesting. We have several things in common. You might wish to consider even more aggressive Roth conversions, and earlier than 70. If you can suppress your AGI by mid-sixties, you will save on medicare premiums, save taxes on SS @ 67 (if married with low earning spouse - the repeal of fil...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jul 26, 2016 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?
Replies: 110
Views: 7087

Re: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?

Thanks for posting Dave. I would be interested in how you intend to accomplish this? Would you divide your assets into two families, one at say 60/40 and the other at 100/0? Hi NMJack, thanks for the kind words. Dividing the money would be preferable (convenience). I hope to have that accomplished ...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jul 26, 2016 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?
Replies: 110
Views: 7087

Re: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?

It's likely I'll wind up on the rising equity path. I'm planning to use a semi-LMP, semi-bucket approach. In short, a fraction of my assets will be invested with an AA primarily as suits the age of my heirs: for growth. The rest will be invested more conservatively AA-wise for me to spend down as I ...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jul 22, 2016 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Market Increasingly Detached from U.S. Economy
Replies: 19
Views: 2466

Re: U.S. Stock Market Increasingly Detached from U.S. Economy

The figure just seems to say that the service sector is growing faster than the goods sector in the economy. Then it's compared to a static snapshot of the SP500 composition. A little apples/oranges maybe? Why not compare it to the "valued added" to the SP500 by both categories to verify w...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jul 15, 2016 4:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: optimal Frequency for for periodic investment in a taxable account
Replies: 28
Views: 3821

Re: optimal Frequency for for periodic investment in a taxable account

It's mostly a matter of convenience, but I prefer having fewer tax lots in my taxable accounts. I move money over to Vanguard MM every payday, then make one buy in each of the two funds I'm accumulating in for that account per quarter, so twice a quarter I'll actually invest the money. That may be s...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jul 14, 2016 3:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How saving too much can make your retirement less satisfying"
Replies: 52
Views: 7560

Re: "How saving too much can make your retirement less satisfying"

We'll see what happens when I retire, but one of the things I've learned in this journey is that for me, I became much more happy/content with the simpler lifestyle that resulted from my transforming from mainly a consumer to mainly a saver. So when people look at me aghast and say, "OMG, you'l...
by IlliniDave
Sun Jul 03, 2016 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement
Replies: 105
Views: 9206

Re: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement

60/40 is certainly in the range of what seems reasonable to me. Wellington Fund is close to that, and that's the current top choice on my short list for the eventuality I decide to throw everything from my retirement accounts into one fund at some point. Really what matters most is if 60/40 suits yo...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 30, 2016 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total return vs Liability driven investing
Replies: 7
Views: 645

Re: Total return vs Liability driven investing

I'm not familiar with the book. My perspective is that the so-called 'total return' strategy is perfectly acceptable, so there is certainly no need to make a change from what you are doing just because someone has an idea they wrote a book about. There's a number of ways to handle the distribution p...
by IlliniDave
Sun Jun 26, 2016 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Event-driven rebalancing? Sounds like market timing
Replies: 20
Views: 1582

Re: Event-driven rebalancing? Sounds like market timing

Market timing, especially the unbridled form (either "in" the market or "out" of the market), is unlikely to be an optimal lifelong strategy. Taking a small action like rebalancing or even a little AA nudge in an attempt to take advantage of favorable opportunities while technica...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brexit: What does Vanguard think?
Replies: 29
Views: 5555

Re: Brexit: What does Vanguard think?

I managed to get through the day without doing anything. I wasn't close to being able to do any TLH-ing. I could have done an opportunistic rebalace per the RBD strategy, but I didn't.
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 22, 2016 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 5213

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

Why do you think share issuance would have been $0 if dividends had been used instead? It's hard to verify a hypothetical, but what if it would have been exactly $0.25? That 0.25 difference did have a positive impact on the company's business; worst case, it replaced compensation paid in another fo...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 5213

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

So seeing the net as in the OP is good, but it would also be interesting to see the difference between the net and gross that, from a common shareholders perspective, sort of vanishes. If the net/gross ratio is high, then buybacks could be a good deal for taxable shareholders. Not exactly sure what...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 22, 2016 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 5213

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

My question would be: how reliable are the figures for return due to buyback and what is the efficiency (i.e., what percent of the buybacks are offset by new issues or just handed to executives as compensation). Maybe all that is well accounted for. In the data on share buybacks, one has to disting...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 22, 2016 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 162
Views: 16956

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

The subject question is pretty open-ended. "Ideal" would presumably mean optimal for the retiree which is a hugely individual consideration. "Safe" is also relative, and difficult to quantify. I can only speak for myself where 33X-40X expected average annual spending from assets ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 22, 2016 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 5213

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

I've seen this kind of strange math (combining dividends with net buybacks) for a while now, this left me cold to begin with, this continues to leave me cold. Buybacks affect prices, but so are many other factors, and there is just no way to distinguish one from the other. I think this is an ill-fa...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jun 21, 2016 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage and Lifetime Asset Allocation
Replies: 18
Views: 1202

Re: Mortgage and Lifetime Asset Allocation

I'm a shameless mental accounter. I would tend to (and did, but I no longer have a mortgage) associate my mortgage with my home, and like my home, not mix it up with my invested financial assets. The fungible nature of money is a nice abstract concept, but I never found it routinely useful for manag...
by IlliniDave
Sat Jun 18, 2016 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Only buying during crashes - return?
Replies: 34
Views: 3274

Re: Only buying during crashes - return?

There's basically three of them in the last 29 years, which is a good chunk of an investor's horizon. The big crashes tend to happen over the course of a couple years. Jumping in at -20% means you might have another 20-30% to lose right off without any of the gains in the years leading up to offset ...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 17, 2016 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point (if any) would you change your AA?
Replies: 23
Views: 1550

Re: At what point (if any) would you change your AA?

There are a coupla three things over and above the fact that I'm on a loose preplanned glide path due to age and proximity to retirement: The main one would be a major change in my present situation, which would at least lead me to consider deviating from my current basic AA. The second is that, for...
by IlliniDave
Tue May 17, 2016 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those of you in the Accumulation Phase - How often do you check?
Replies: 62
Views: 5281

Re: For those of you in the Accumulation Phase - How often do you check?

I check at least a couple times a week minimum because of identity theft concerns (or so I tell myself ;) ) When I was a young accumulator it wasn't uncommon for me to go a year or more without really paying attention. Now as a relatively late accumulator I'm a little more interested in how things a...
by IlliniDave
Mon May 16, 2016 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The inventor of the 401(k) says he created a ‘monster’
Replies: 28
Views: 4996

Re: The inventor of the 401(k) says he created a ‘monster’

I too have an employer with a great plan. I know some plans are substandard, but the monster has been very good to me and many people I know.
by IlliniDave
Sun May 15, 2016 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 401(k) in a 28% bracket thoughts
Replies: 14
Views: 1942

Re: Roth 401(k) in a 28% bracket thoughts

That seems to be right (OP). The only caveat might be that if you don't have much room in the 25% bracket and stack enough additional years of traditional in there, you might not be able to convert it all at the lower rate within the 15 years. I applied the same thought exercise to my own situation ...
by IlliniDave
Thu May 12, 2016 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Carl Icahn Is Betting Big on a Stock Market Crash
Replies: 32
Views: 7557

Re: Carl Icahn Is Betting Big on a Stock Market Crash

I'm about 70% bullish/neutral and 30% bearish. Hence my AA.
by IlliniDave
Thu May 12, 2016 4:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ Article Dividends Aren't the Answer, They're the Problem
Replies: 57
Views: 9418

Re: WSJ Article Dividends Aren't the Answer, They're the Problem

I'm hoping to get my withdrawal rate down to ~2% for ER. That way, I get to spend "just my dividend 'problem' " and be a "total return" investor all at the same time. I have no qualms about enjoying the best of both worlds. The cost, of course, is that you end up having worked l...
by IlliniDave
Wed May 11, 2016 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ Article Dividends Aren't the Answer, They're the Problem
Replies: 57
Views: 9418

Re: WSJ Article Dividends Aren't the Answer, They're the Problem

I'm hoping to get my withdrawal rate down to ~2% for ER. That way, I get to spend "just my dividend 'problem'" and be a "total return" investor all at the same time. I have no qualms about enjoying the best of both worlds.
by IlliniDave
Tue May 10, 2016 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Farmers? Question about Leasing Land
Replies: 12
Views: 2173

Re: Any Farmers? Question about Leasing Land

There are two small pieces of farm property in my family. One that belongs to my dad, and another that was passed from my grandfather to my mom and her sister. Both have had steady lessees for decades, with no interruptions I'm aware of. But I think one of the keys is that in neither case were the l...
by IlliniDave
Tue May 10, 2016 5:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: liquid cash in retirement: keep 2-3 years of expenses?!
Replies: 17
Views: 2820

Re: liquid cash in retirement: keep 2-3 years of expenses?!

Having 5-10% (~1-2 year's worth) of portfolio in short-term, cash-like instruments is pretty standard advice for retirees. These guys are a little more conservative, and except for not being a high bravado approach, I don't see a huge issue with it. I'm skeptical that it will negate the volatility o...
by IlliniDave
Sun May 08, 2016 4:23 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: HAPPY BIRTHDAY, MR. BOGLE! May 8, 2016
Replies: 52
Views: 3686

Re: HAPPY BIRTHDAY, MR. BOGLE! May 8, 2016

Many happy returns of the day to Mr. Bogle!
by IlliniDave
Sat May 07, 2016 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taxable Account - Bonds - Diversification vs. Tax
Replies: 47
Views: 5998

Re: Taxable Account - Bonds - Diversification vs. Tax

For me it's all about tax at this point, so what bonds I do have in my taxable account are tax-exempt. I really don't "need" bonds in taxable, but I use them for the second-tier of my emergency fund, and I like having some relatively stable assets in that account. Diversification. In my 40...
by IlliniDave
Fri May 06, 2016 4:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does Market Analysis affect your investment?
Replies: 9
Views: 777

Re: How does Market Analysis affect your investment?

I don't spend tons of time researching the topic. But one can't help hearing the many opinions of lower future returns. It has not affected how I invest because I don't see a prudent way to force the future to behave like the past (or in any other manner I might want). The effect such analysis has h...
by IlliniDave
Fri May 06, 2016 4:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The crossover point [When can you retire?]
Replies: 59
Views: 10121

Re: The crossover point

I do my own calculation that takes into account other income sources (retirement annuity and SS) and compare my portfolio's income generating ability (based on a steady 3% withdrawal rate) to my current spending less the other income sources. I went "positive" about 2 months ago (yay!). I ...
by IlliniDave
Mon May 02, 2016 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's a typical pension funding % ?
Replies: 30
Views: 3803

Re: What's a typical pension funding % ?

I don't remember the exact numbers, but my company's statement came out today on the website and both the adjusted and unadjusted percentages of target were over 100% (I want to think about 103% and about 117%). I don't know if what they called "funding target" refers to something differen...
by IlliniDave
Mon May 02, 2016 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard pushing active management?
Replies: 18
Views: 2308

Re: Vanguard pushing active management?

To my eye, Vanguard "active" funds in the aggregate (at least those I've looked at) seem to exist significantly on the passive side of the non-index fund continuum. In that small space is where I believe non-index funds can be competitive with index funds over the long haul after expenses....
by IlliniDave
Fri Apr 29, 2016 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Markets Have ‘Borrowed’ Returns from the Future”
Replies: 17
Views: 2793

Re: “Markets Have ‘Borrowed’ Returns from the Future”

I don't understand enough about QE and what its role is to comment about it specifically, but any time PEs get above historical means I see it in exactly those terms--future returns have been borrowed (or collected early). Mean reversion is "paying them back". Conversely, when markets cras...
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 27, 2016 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not ETFs?
Replies: 57
Views: 4449

Re: Why not ETFs?

Very much like nisiprius said several items down his list, I started in a 401k with only mutual fund options, started a little taxable investing before there was such a thing as an ETF, and continue to go with the "product" I am comfortable with. To this day I have never simply bought a sh...

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