Search found 2001 matches

by IlliniDave
Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too good to be true? [Bogleheads' model of index investing]
Replies: 48
Views: 5582

Re: Too good to be true? [Bogleheads' model of index investing]

Nothing "too good" about it. We just use simple common sense in an endeavor to get the full reward for the risk we take. The reward is whatever the market winds up dealing out (which will always be true as it happens). The risk is also inherent to whatever the market winds up dealing out. ...
by IlliniDave
Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investors getting a free ride
Replies: 53
Views: 5340

Re: Index Investors getting a free ride

Index investors contribute to the "price discovery" of the total market (and/or indexed segments), rather than individual issues. What does that mean? Price discovery doesn't happen at the market level (with the possible exception of etfs, but let's leave that aside for a second). A big n...
by IlliniDave
Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investors getting a free ride
Replies: 53
Views: 5340

Re: Index Investors getting a free ride

I believe the argument of index funds versus active management was addressed in the last annual report I read on TISM by Vanguard in which they were clearly of the opinion that active management was not dead - in fact far from it. But high cost active management is done - low cost active that exist...
by IlliniDave
Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investors getting a free ride
Replies: 53
Views: 5340

Re: Index Investors getting a free ride

Index investors contribute to the "price discovery" of the total market (and/or indexed segments), rather than individual issues. It's the same thing only on a larger/slower scale. Buy-and-hold investors get more of the "free ride", irrespective of whether the holding is an index...
by IlliniDave
Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have a tilt portfolio similar to this
Replies: 22
Views: 1887

Re: Anyone have a tilt portfolio similar to this

If I only look at equities in my retirement accounts, I'm roughly similar to that. But I also have 25%-ish of my assets in bonds, which I've been trying to increase to 30% via new contributions for over a year now, but the stocks keep outpacing me. It doesn't seem terribly unusual, although a lot of...
by IlliniDave
Fri Feb 03, 2017 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It appears Fiduciary changes may not happen after all.
Replies: 84
Views: 6017

Re: It appears Fiduciary changes may not happen after all.

I am very fortunate w/my 401k in that my megacorp employer saw the light back ~2012 and totally revamped our pla. If I roll it over to VG when I retire, I would probably see fees increase . But I'm very disheartened by this. Hopefully they'll take their 90 days, weigh the evidence, and decide to do ...
by IlliniDave
Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does boglehead style investing benefit from being "Too big to fail"
Replies: 7
Views: 939

Re: Does boglehead style investing benefit from being "Too big to fail"

I suspect there are some catastrophes even the government can't fix, but in a sense I have a similar take. I'm not strictly a 3-fund guy, but for me to go belly-up the worldwide corporate economy and US gov't/banking system would have to implode, meaning things will be so bad that scrounging my next...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jan 27, 2017 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If market crashed 50%, would you do a 401k roth conversion?
Replies: 22
Views: 2657

Re: If market crashed 50%, would you do a 401k roth conversion?

I would not. Primarily because my plan does not allow conversions at this time. Even if they I still probably would not. I anticipate a much lower tax rate in retirement than now (my gross "income" in retirement will be about 25% or less of what it is now). At my present marginal rate I'd ...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jan 27, 2017 4:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 9680

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number

I've been approximately in the theoretical FI realm for about 1-1.5 years now and still working. I didn't really do anything special or different. I have a target AA and a bit of a glide path I'm working (moving between 80/20 and 70/30 as fast as buying bonds with new money gets me there). So right...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 9680

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number

I've been approximately in the theoretical FI realm for about 1-1.5 years now and still working. I didn't really do anything special or different. I have a target AA and a bit of a glide path I'm working (moving between 80/20 and 70/30 as fast as buying bonds with new money gets me there). So right ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jan 11, 2017 4:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 245
Views: 27975

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Right now I'm targeting an age, 55 (I'm currently 52.5), because it is the separation age I need to reach to leave my employer as a retiree (and receive some additional retirement benefits). Back-of-the-envelope if I had $1.3M-$1.5M in invested assets I could walk away today and be in a roughly equi...
by IlliniDave
Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Idea behind investing is NOT to get rich...
Replies: 51
Views: 9064

Re: Idea behind investing is NOT to get rich...

To me, not getting poor is being rich. :beer
by IlliniDave
Thu Nov 10, 2016 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 331
Views: 54192

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

I admit I didn't read the article, but I'm probably in the stealth wealth category, at least stealth moderate wealth. It's not something I do on purpose to disguise things, it's just that my tastes have always been relatively simple and I don't have a huge urge to spend money just because I can. I'v...
by IlliniDave
Sat Oct 29, 2016 5:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I take out a 401k loan? Panicking
Replies: 12
Views: 1654

Re: Should I take out a 401k loan? Panicking

First I would say are you sure the only assets you have available are the 401k? If you focused on it, how fast could you pay off the CC balance without the loan? As long as you can pay back the loan and continue regular contributions it wouldn't be the worlds worst idea. I'd also suggest going forwa...
by IlliniDave
Tue Oct 18, 2016 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Buckets?
Replies: 12
Views: 1304

Re: Investment Buckets?

I don't think of bucket approach as a single thing, but a continuum of approaches where a person tries to connect the real world to an AA decision. I consider LMP to be a bucket approach as well, although that may not be strictly correct. Such approaches have value to me for arriving at how much of ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Sep 28, 2016 4:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you own Vanguard Total Stock Market, do you re-invest dividends?
Replies: 75
Views: 9681

Re: If you own Vanguard Total Stock Market, do you re-invest dividends?

rob wrote:In taxable accounts I never reinvest as it creates too many tax lots.... for tax deferred I always reinvest and just exchange to re-balance as needed.


This is exactly what I do.
by IlliniDave
Thu Sep 22, 2016 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I guess we better peek when it comes to Vanguard
Replies: 37
Views: 5592

Re: I guess we better peek when it comes to Vanguard

Just because of the growing threat of ID theft and hacking I check everything fairly regularly. I've never had an issue with Vanguard making an error, nor Fidelity, but I did catch a substantial error made by my bank once a number of years ago--they keyed in a $200 check I wrote as $2000. They were ...
by IlliniDave
Sun Aug 28, 2016 5:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to Tell if Your Retirement Nest Egg Is Big Enough"
Replies: 61
Views: 14240

Re: "How to Tell if Your Retirement Nest Egg Is Big Enough"

This is probably the first time I've ever read something by Dr. Bernstein and came away more encouraged than discouraged/fearful! I'm planning to retire early and and am in a situation where my RLE from retirement day (somewhere between age 52.5 and 55) and 70 is much higher than my RLE from 70 onwa...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 25, 2016 3:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High income, confused, trying to get a plan in place.
Replies: 25
Views: 3459

Re: High income, confused, trying to get a plan in place.

In terms of the first question--it might be an interesting curiosity but knowing what one "should have" accumulated, but if there even is such a number, it doesn't have much value going forward. If you go by conventional wisdom, you would want to have at least 25x what you want to withdraw...
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 22, 2016 4:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends, and the curse of popularity
Replies: 91
Views: 7306

Re: Dividends, and the curse of popularity

I think this falls under the live-and-let-live category. My dad left a corporate career after a couple years to be a teacher. Arguably that cost him a heap-ton of money over the years. He also did not pursue a Wall St/investment management career, which probably cost him far more money than bailing ...
by IlliniDave
Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Freedom?
Replies: 13
Views: 1697

Re: Financial Freedom?

Been thinking about retiring early, basically due to stress which comes from my job. I'm 55 years old and can collect a healthy pension and have my health care mostly covered (I pay $400/month) Not super rich compared to many posters on this site but I do have about 1.2 M in retirement savings. No ...
by IlliniDave
Sat Aug 20, 2016 5:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401K Fees [401(k) Lawsuits increasing due to fiduciary standard]
Replies: 27
Views: 1915

Re: 401K FEE'S

This article appeared in Bloomberg yesterday. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-18/more-employers-are-worried-about-screwing-up-your-401-k A push to improve retirement savings plans is all good. What’s too bad is that much of the impetus behind the move isn’t tied to a desire to do the...
by IlliniDave
Fri Aug 19, 2016 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you know if you're taking on too much risk?
Replies: 14
Views: 1490

Re: How do you know if you're taking on too much risk?

The whole need, ability, willingness mantra never resonated with me. Nothing wrong with it for those for whom it yields answers. When I apply it to myself it winds up simply coming down to willingness. Same for the survey "tools" that attempt to quantify risk tolerance. I know how to answe...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 18, 2016 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?
Replies: 206
Views: 22554

Re: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?

Do you think the factors/reasons that cause wealthy to become poor are a subset of the factors/reasons that cause the poor to stay poor? The documentary mentioned in my previous post says this better than I. As for making this actionable, I agree with what you said in your last paragraph. Yes, more...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 18, 2016 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most Investors Won't Outperform this Simple Portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 2791

Re: Most Investors Won't Outperform this Simple Portfolio

A bit of a quibble, but the 90%/10% attributed to Buffet was instructions on how to set up a trust of presumably > $1B for his widow, not generic advice for all investors.
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?
Replies: 206
Views: 22554

Re: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?

ironically a lot of the ideas here that apply to the super rich here apply to low income folks too. I'm sorry but I have to disagree here. The super rich whose generational wealth is maintained and increased, usually by companies & firms, have it very different. Unfortunately, the current rewar...
by IlliniDave
Tue Aug 16, 2016 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Knowing what you know now...
Replies: 22
Views: 2729

Re: Knowing what you know now...

I'll be the contrarian. Yes, I definitely would do things differently if I had a do-over. I did have "fun" as a young man, but I would trade most of that for a higher level of happiness throughout my adult life. I'm planning on an ER anyway, but a decade of "fun" wasn't worth the...
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 15, 2016 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?
Replies: 304
Views: 44788

Re: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?

I come from the wrong side of the tracks (river, actually) in a rust belt city so my aspirations are more modest than most here. Something over a year ago I hit the FI point where I'm confident that should employment end today I'll never have to live under a bridge or eat pet food short of a catacly...
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 15, 2016 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?
Replies: 139
Views: 16718

Re: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?

I may have participated in this discussion in the past, but that would have been last year. I'm still using 3.5% real for my baseline/conservative return rate. ~70/30 portfolio with about 35% of equity overseas and tilted slightly towards EM; and domestic equity tilted slightly SV. I also run the nu...
by IlliniDave
Sun Aug 14, 2016 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confession~ I timed the market today
Replies: 31
Views: 3619

Re: Confession~ I timed the market today

This wouldn't fall under what I consider "market timing" in the way that's preached against by folks like Bogle. If you'd have dumped all your stocks into bonds and cash, then planned to sit around and wait for a good time to buy back in--that's market timing. Just picking what you feel is...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 11, 2016 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?
Replies: 71
Views: 3957

Re: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?

I have a PE level where I might contemplate a slight downward adjustment in my US equity AA, but we're not there yet (and a higher level where it is mandatory I make a larger adjustment). That said, I've been on a casual glide path from 80/20 to 70/30 for almost 2 years now. That has most of my new ...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 04, 2016 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gifting equally when children are in very different tax brackets?
Replies: 19
Views: 2685

Re: Gifting equally when children are in very different tax brackets?

Since it a gift and not a debt, the giver is free to do what they think is right. To reiterate, neither of them should pay any tax on the gift, so if you desire equal net dollars then give them equal gross dollars. You can't fund their Roth's directly, but if you want them to use the gift for that i...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 04, 2016 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 10032

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

Like a lot of things, it depends. It depends on how flexible/inflexible you are with your lifestyle, how long the money will have to last, what odds of having to scale back lifestyle do to shortfall are you willing to take on. I think there's good reason for a potential early retiree to consider 3% ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Aug 03, 2016 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often are stocks at 'all time' highs?
Replies: 11
Views: 1273

Re: How often are stocks at 'all time' highs?

Yes, that's what I was driving at, since media use the language 'All-Time Highs' for other things like temperature, rainfall, crime, etc. which should typically be somewhere closer to All-Time Averages, so when they actually are at All-Time Highs, it's a big deal. Stocks are supposed to be somewhat...
by IlliniDave
Wed Aug 03, 2016 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often are stocks at 'all time' highs?
Replies: 11
Views: 1273

Re: How often are stocks at 'all time' highs?

Since I started investing the SP500 has reached a new "all-time high" 67 times according to the granularity of this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closing_milestones_of_the_S%26P_500 That's an average of a little > 2x/year. In reality it is more because new "all-time highs" were ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jul 27, 2016 4:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?
Replies: 110
Views: 7969

Re: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?

That's interesting. We have several things in common. You might wish to consider even more aggressive Roth conversions, and earlier than 70. If you can suppress your AGI by mid-sixties, you will save on medicare premiums, save taxes on SS @ 67 (if married with low earning spouse - the repeal of fil...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jul 26, 2016 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?
Replies: 110
Views: 7969

Re: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?

Thanks for posting Dave. I would be interested in how you intend to accomplish this? Would you divide your assets into two families, one at say 60/40 and the other at 100/0? Hi NMJack, thanks for the kind words. Dividing the money would be preferable (convenience). I hope to have that accomplished ...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jul 26, 2016 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?
Replies: 110
Views: 7969

Re: Declining or Rising equity allocation in retirement?

It's likely I'll wind up on the rising equity path. I'm planning to use a semi-LMP, semi-bucket approach. In short, a fraction of my assets will be invested with an AA primarily as suits the age of my heirs: for growth. The rest will be invested more conservatively AA-wise for me to spend down as I ...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jul 22, 2016 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Market Increasingly Detached from U.S. Economy
Replies: 19
Views: 2665

Re: U.S. Stock Market Increasingly Detached from U.S. Economy

The figure just seems to say that the service sector is growing faster than the goods sector in the economy. Then it's compared to a static snapshot of the SP500 composition. A little apples/oranges maybe? Why not compare it to the "valued added" to the SP500 by both categories to verify w...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jul 15, 2016 4:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: optimal Frequency for for periodic investment in a taxable account
Replies: 28
Views: 4002

Re: optimal Frequency for for periodic investment in a taxable account

It's mostly a matter of convenience, but I prefer having fewer tax lots in my taxable accounts. I move money over to Vanguard MM every payday, then make one buy in each of the two funds I'm accumulating in for that account per quarter, so twice a quarter I'll actually invest the money. That may be s...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jul 14, 2016 3:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How saving too much can make your retirement less satisfying"
Replies: 52
Views: 8355

Re: "How saving too much can make your retirement less satisfying"

We'll see what happens when I retire, but one of the things I've learned in this journey is that for me, I became much more happy/content with the simpler lifestyle that resulted from my transforming from mainly a consumer to mainly a saver. So when people look at me aghast and say, "OMG, you'l...
by IlliniDave
Sun Jul 03, 2016 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement
Replies: 105
Views: 10281

Re: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement

60/40 is certainly in the range of what seems reasonable to me. Wellington Fund is close to that, and that's the current top choice on my short list for the eventuality I decide to throw everything from my retirement accounts into one fund at some point. Really what matters most is if 60/40 suits yo...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 30, 2016 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total return vs Liability driven investing
Replies: 7
Views: 738

Re: Total return vs Liability driven investing

I'm not familiar with the book. My perspective is that the so-called 'total return' strategy is perfectly acceptable, so there is certainly no need to make a change from what you are doing just because someone has an idea they wrote a book about. There's a number of ways to handle the distribution p...
by IlliniDave
Sun Jun 26, 2016 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Event-driven rebalancing? Sounds like market timing
Replies: 20
Views: 1815

Re: Event-driven rebalancing? Sounds like market timing

Market timing, especially the unbridled form (either "in" the market or "out" of the market), is unlikely to be an optimal lifelong strategy. Taking a small action like rebalancing or even a little AA nudge in an attempt to take advantage of favorable opportunities while technica...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brexit: What does Vanguard think?
Replies: 29
Views: 5807

Re: Brexit: What does Vanguard think?

I managed to get through the day without doing anything. I wasn't close to being able to do any TLH-ing. I could have done an opportunistic rebalace per the RBD strategy, but I didn't.
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 22, 2016 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 6204

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

Why do you think share issuance would have been $0 if dividends had been used instead? It's hard to verify a hypothetical, but what if it would have been exactly $0.25? That 0.25 difference did have a positive impact on the company's business; worst case, it replaced compensation paid in another fo...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 6204

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

So seeing the net as in the OP is good, but it would also be interesting to see the difference between the net and gross that, from a common shareholders perspective, sort of vanishes. If the net/gross ratio is high, then buybacks could be a good deal for taxable shareholders. Not exactly sure what...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 22, 2016 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 6204

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

My question would be: how reliable are the figures for return due to buyback and what is the efficiency (i.e., what percent of the buybacks are offset by new issues or just handed to executives as compensation). Maybe all that is well accounted for. In the data on share buybacks, one has to disting...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 22, 2016 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 162
Views: 18646

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

The subject question is pretty open-ended. "Ideal" would presumably mean optimal for the retiree which is a hugely individual consideration. "Safe" is also relative, and difficult to quantify. I can only speak for myself where 33X-40X expected average annual spending from assets ...

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