Search found 364 matches

by Hyperborea
Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 174
Views: 11254

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

What asset allocation is this based on (%stocks/%bonds)? Are there index fund asset allocations where the 4% rule is less likely to fail? The general answer to that is the rule does fail if there are not enough stocks. The cutoff normally observed is a falloff at and under about 30% stocks. There d...
by Hyperborea
Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 174
Views: 11254

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

What asset allocation is this based on (%stocks/%bonds)? Are there index fund asset allocations where the 4% rule is less likely to fail? The general answer to that is the rule does fail if there are not enough stocks. The cutoff normally observed is a falloff at and under about 30% stocks. There d...
by Hyperborea
Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you include the sale of your home as part of your retirement planning?
Replies: 75
Views: 3358

Re: Do you include the sale of your home as part of your retirement planning?

Home equity values are hard to predict and in the future even harder still. :D I have plans (rougher the further out they get) to change our home situation and I have modelled them in a variety of ways. It's too hard to know exactly what prices will be at certain points and what I do will have to re...
by Hyperborea
Sat Nov 18, 2017 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 12722

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

My frustration with this recurring topic is that even the most talented posters here do not seem to understand that this type of modeling should always be used as very rough guideline rather than any sort of rule. I know I am not a good teacher because something which are so obvious to me that I ha...
by Hyperborea
Sat Nov 18, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 12722

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

My frustration with this recurring topic is that even the most talented posters here do not seem to understand that this type of modeling should always be used as very rough guideline rather than any sort of rule. I know I am not a good teacher because something which are so obvious to me that I ha...
by Hyperborea
Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 12722

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

"So this time is different?" I presume this time is the same. The historical record shows us that prospective returns are negatively correlated to starting valuations. See the first graph in this article for an illustration: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/21/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withd...
by Hyperborea
Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chromebook/Similar for Elderly Dad
Replies: 30
Views: 1785

Re: Chromebook/Similar for Elderly Dad

I would recommend this one.... https://www.amazon.com/HP-Performance-Chromebook-BrightView-Processor/dp/B0759JXK2H/ref=sr_1_4?s=pc&ie=UTF8&qid=1510760305&sr=1-4&keywords=hp+chromebook+14 It is not particularly small or light but I'm assuming it would not be used for travel. It has a large 14" scree...
by Hyperborea
Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chromebook/Similar for Elderly Dad
Replies: 30
Views: 1785

Re: Chromebook/Similar for Elderly Dad

I would recommend this one.... https://www.amazon.com/HP-Performance-Chromebook-BrightView-Processor/dp/B0759JXK2H/ref=sr_1_4?s=pc&ie=UTF8&qid=1510760305&sr=1-4&keywords=hp+chromebook+14 It is not particularly small or light but I'm assuming it would not be used for travel. It has a large 14" scree...
by Hyperborea
Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chromebook/Similar for Elderly Dad
Replies: 30
Views: 1785

Re: Chromebook/Similar for Elderly Dad

OP wrote that his dad would use it when traveling, do his banking. I have a laptop which uses our in-house Wifi. Using someone's Wifi when traveling for banking will expose his passwords to others. I just bought a plug-in device so I can use it on our cable modem. Not if the bank site is using http...
by Hyperborea
Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chromebook/Similar for Elderly Dad
Replies: 30
Views: 1785

Re: Chromebook/Similar for Elderly Dad

I'm looking at a new Chromebook for my mum for XMas. I know she likes it because I gave her an old one of ours for her to use as a test drive to see if she likes it. She's got an iMac but the Chromebook gets a lot more use - watching Netflix or checking email or reading news in the kitchen or out on...
by Hyperborea
Thu Nov 09, 2017 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 12722

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

Exactly, ultimately it becomes less about planning for specific type events and more about building general resiliency (or antifragility in Taleb's parlance) into your systems (financial and otherwise). So, does that mean anything aside from the usual cautions about retiring early - be well diversi...
by Hyperborea
Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coffee
Replies: 51
Views: 3857

Re: Coffee

Here you are... take your pick: ♨️ 🍸 🍷 🍷 ☕️ Actually, the first one, ♨️, is the map symbol for an onsen - a Japanese hot spring. The emoji characters originally came out of the symbols available on Japanese cell phones from the early 2000's. As to coffee, anybody who really likes coffee doesn't dri...
by Hyperborea
Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 12722

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

Anyone who has any concern for real black swans needs some gold in their portfolio, because that protects against significant events that have actually happened in history, where "normal" assets like stocks and bonds get trashed. Examples include high inflation and currency devaluation. A moderate ...
by Hyperborea
Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 12722

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

It doesn't matter what you set your SWR at in terms of dealing with blackswan events. When the US gets nuked, the US devalues the dollar by 1000000%, the communists take over and sieze all private assets, civil war breaks out between red/blue states and so on (i.e. black swan events are not somethi...
by Hyperborea
Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 12722

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

It doesn't matter what you set your SWR at in terms of dealing with blackswan events. When the US gets nuked, the US devalues the dollar by 1000000%, the communists take over and sieze all private assets, civil war breaks out between red/blue states and so on (i.e. black swan events are not somethi...
by Hyperborea
Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 12722

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

But lets look at your "Catastrophic case" 50% loss, 2% gains for 8 year, and then 10%? That isn't really that bad. Look up japan were we are off by ~33% 28 years later. If that oft-referenced Japanese investor had bought a world market portfolio they would be doing fine. If they had followed the vo...
by Hyperborea
Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: So new, it hurts to even think about it.
Replies: 25
Views: 4604

Re: So new, it hurts to even think about it.

I never realized I was about 92% stocks and 8% bonds(in the Vanguard TR 2040). I certainly do not want to be that aggressive. Maybe bring it down a bit. Vanguard makes it that aggressive because it is targeted so far in the future, over 20 years until retirement, that the need for bonds is low. The...
by Hyperborea
Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 13007

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Which is why most of the S&P500 and all of the DJIA stocks pay a dividend. They've run out of good things to do with the money. At some point 5, 10, maybe 20 years from now so will Google (ok, Alphabet), Facebook, Amazon, etc. Apple's already decided that they can't think of enough good things to d...
by Hyperborea
Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 13007

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

What would the market value of JNJ be today if it had never paid dividends? Trillions? There are at least a couple of ways to look at this hypothetical question. Assuming that JNJ had never paid dividends or bought back shares: 1) If the cash was invested in expanding the business through R&D, buil...
by Hyperborea
Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Preparing For "Early Retirement" In A Couple of Years
Replies: 77
Views: 7449

Re: Preparing For "Early Retirement" In A Couple of Years

Thanks for the correction. How come you yourself did not think something was wrong with the results even if you were in hurry? Yup, I'm fallible, mea culpa. I did think it a bit funny but because I was in a hurry I plunked it down and ran out the door. I'll let you in on a secret, I'm a pretty bad ...
by Hyperborea
Tue Nov 07, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Preparing For "Early Retirement" In A Couple of Years
Replies: 77
Views: 7449

Re: Preparing For "Early Retirement" In A Couple of Years

The results of that firecalc doesn't make much intuitive sense to me? 6 years with 100k contribution starting at 1.15 million. So just in contributions shouldn't it be 1.75? So the "average" has basically no returns over 6 years? Good catch. I was in a hurry and screwed up. :oops: Fixed the inputs ...
by Hyperborea
Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Preparing For "Early Retirement" In A Couple of Years
Replies: 77
Views: 7449

Re: Preparing For "Early Retirement" In A Couple of Years

CNC - if you believe all of those numbers and want to play with some math perhaps try some of these comparisons of average returns vs actual portfolio values. Instead of using 9.5% return try 10% for simplicity and maybe use $1 million as a round number - first try 10% each year for 6 years and see...
by Hyperborea
Sun Nov 05, 2017 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Preparing For "Early Retirement" In A Couple of Years
Replies: 77
Views: 7449

Re: Preparing For "Early Retirement" In A Couple of Years

So, it sounds like your wife "wants us both to quit our jobs and travel the world" and you are planning to start a new tech company. Might be hard to make them both work at the same time. I think most of us were responding to the first plan and didn't see the hidden other plan. It's entirely possibl...
by Hyperborea
Sun Nov 05, 2017 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Preparing For "Early Retirement" In A Couple of Years
Replies: 77
Views: 7449

Re: Preparing For "Early Retirement" In A Couple of Years

Tell everyone you've retired but then both of you can take on some side jobs to cover most of your living expenses. This. All the early retirees we hear about have a blog. With most of the living expenses covered by the side jobs, you can comfortably live on your $25k/year budget. $25K / year seems...
by Hyperborea
Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Preparing For "Early Retirement" In A Couple of Years
Replies: 77
Views: 7449

Re: Preparing For "Early Retirement" In A Couple of Years

To quit at 30 , i would think you need 50 to 60 times expenses. I think your wife needs a reality check. While I agree that the wife needs a reality check, 50x to 60x expenses is ridiculous. That means having enough money to live 100% off a TIPS ladder for your entire life. There is a wide variety ...
by Hyperborea
Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Preparing For "Early Retirement" In A Couple of Years
Replies: 77
Views: 7449

Re: Preparing For "Early Retirement" In A Couple of Years

To quit at 30 , i would think you need 50 to 60 times expenses. I think your wife needs a reality check. While I agree that the wife needs a reality check, 50x to 60x expenses is ridiculous. That means having enough money to live 100% off a TIPS ladder for your entire life. There is a wide variety ...
by Hyperborea
Fri Nov 03, 2017 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Restricted Stock HELP NEEDED
Replies: 12
Views: 722

Re: Restricted Stock HELP NEEDED

There is no tax benefit to holding RSUs any amount of time after they vest. I would only hold them after that point if and only if you would go out right now and spend your own cash to buy the stock and it fit within your investment plan.

ESPP is a different matter but RSUs sold as soon as they vest.
by Hyperborea
Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK expat living in Australia - ETF and tax guidance.
Replies: 8
Views: 460

Re: UK expat living in Australia - ETF and tax guidance.

Am I correct in thinking investing in USD funds is a smarter choice since my future location is uncertain? That approach seems to me to be 'betting on currencies'. Would it not be better to diversify the currency risk by buying assets in different currencies? It doesn't seem that one is betting on ...
by Hyperborea
Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK expat living in Australia - ETF and tax guidance.
Replies: 8
Views: 460

Re: UK expat living in Australia - ETF and tax guidance.

if I were to open an IB account which is now a listed company in Australia as opposed to originally just US, would all investments made there be classed as Australian based and applicable for CGT or would it only be the portion of the ETF which is invested in the AU market? I think that it doesn't ...
by Hyperborea
Tue Oct 31, 2017 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Password Protection
Replies: 79
Views: 5590

Re: Password Protection

I wouldn't exactly described a process that is functionally equivalent to how LastPass works and EXACTLY the same as 1Password, as "way more securely". The proper phrase is "just as securely". No, way more secure. That is because only you have the encrypted file's password, not Dropbox, Lastpass, e...
by Hyperborea
Tue Oct 31, 2017 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My 401k is almost all cash now. 1/2 Mil
Replies: 89
Views: 8852

Re: My 401k is almost all cash now. 1/2 Mil

Two fundamental principles of the stock market are: 1) it tends to go up over the long term, . Long term, we all will be dead. You'll only need to look at Japan's Nikkei 225 Index - it reached peak of 39K in 1989 and today, it's at 22K. If you were fully invested in 1989 and say, you were a 60-70 y...
by Hyperborea
Tue Oct 31, 2017 6:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Password Protection
Replies: 79
Views: 5590

Re: Password Protection

I wouldn't exactly described a process that is functionally equivalent to how LastPass works and EXACTLY the same as 1Password, as "way more securely". The proper phrase is "just as securely". No, way more secure. That is because only you have the encrypted file's password, not Dropbox, Lastpass, e...
by Hyperborea
Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early-retired 35 year old with $1 million
Replies: 198
Views: 18602

Re: Early-retired 35 year old with $1 million

When I tested the waters of early retirement, of course it was great at first, but I started to feel that I was squandering my talents and missing the opportunity to self-actualize. There's a great quote by Charles Kingsley: "We act as though comfort and luxury were the chief requirements of life, ...
by Hyperborea
Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My 401k is almost all cash now. 1/2 Mil
Replies: 89
Views: 8852

Re: My 401k is almost all cash now. 1/2 Mil

If an investor was 60-70 years old in 1989, presumably most of his investing was done from the 60's to 1986 (when the Nikkei rose from 1200 to 13,000--it is now at 22,000), in which case he would done fine in retirement. On the other hand, if the investor had decided to go to cash at the end of say...
by Hyperborea
Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New guy-long time lurker
Replies: 3
Views: 757

Re: New guy-long time lurker

I can't answer that because I have no idea of how much is in each account and what your desired allocation is. What I can tell you is that you should treat your entire set of investment accounts as one big portfolio just that it's split into different boxes. Take the allocation you want over all and...
by Hyperborea
Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early-retired 35 year old with $1 million
Replies: 198
Views: 18602

Re: Early-retired 35 year old with $1 million

4% has historically worked for most retirees hitting a bear market early on. Although 100% guarantee of nit running out of money is impossible 3% is practically bullet proof. Enjoyit, the 4% "rule" was to avoid running out of money for 30 years. Doesn't apply in this scenario of 50-60 year timefram...
by Hyperborea
Mon Oct 30, 2017 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Worry market crush, selling 50%, but increase buying 100%
Replies: 69
Views: 6593

Re: Worry market crush, selling 50%, but increase buying 100%

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 12:00 pm
What on earth leads you to believe that this is not market timing?
Cognitive dissonance. If you call it something else and persuade yourself that it is something else then you can fool yourself into believing that you're not one of those bad market timers.
by Hyperborea
Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Delayed compensation benefits?
Replies: 14
Views: 921

Re: Delayed compensation benefits?

Yes, unless you are planning to have reduced income the year that the deferred comp pays out then there is only a small or no benefit. I had a similar plan at the last company I worked for. Any employee could defer their bonus for 1-5 years though I'm sure the execs got a better deferral plan. I did...
by Hyperborea
Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is International Stock Index Safer?
Replies: 14
Views: 967

Re: Is International Stock Index Safer?

we have enough revenue streams for 80% of our recurring needs, we need the stocks to throw off revenue for the 20%. Are you looking to use the revenue (i.e. dividends) to generate that 80%? I would suggest switching from a dividend approach to a total return approach. Chasing dividends is only goin...
by Hyperborea
Sun Oct 29, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early-retired 35 year old with $1 million
Replies: 198
Views: 18602

Re: Early-retired 35 year old with $1 million

For me, the biggest gap in the plan to retire at 35 with $1M is healthcare. Sure, there are lot of people in the US living on $30K / year but honestly for most of them their healthcare situation is bad. Any healthcare coverage they get through work is better than nothing and it's still likely better...
by Hyperborea
Sun Oct 29, 2017 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it ok to have 100% stocks, 15 years+
Replies: 97
Views: 8456

Re: Is it ok to have 100% stocks, 15 years+

<snip the long quotes as it was becoming unwieldy> But I still think it much riskier than Hyperborea does to enter retirement with 90/10 or more. If, as I keep saying, you really need to withdraw 4% ish of your portfolio. One can really need or want something but it might not be possible. One can wa...
by Hyperborea
Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New TV, what's important?
Replies: 42
Views: 2939

Re: New TV, what's important?

Is motion rate 120 fine? I suspect it will be fine for us, but open to expert opinion. I hate it. First thing I do when I see it is to try to turn it off, after having an argument with the tv owner. :) Some people hate the higher frame rate smoothing and that's fine. It can be turned off. The motio...
by Hyperborea
Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the best AA for me?
Replies: 24
Views: 1575

Re: What is the best AA for me?

I'm going to say that it just about doesn't matter. Your baseline spending is pretty much covered by your pension. You've got less than 10 years until your SS kicks in and that will more than cover the difference between fun and FUN! in your budget. So, you only need to cover 10 years and then the ...
by Hyperborea
Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early-retired 35 year old with $1 million
Replies: 198
Views: 18602

Re: Early-retired 35 year old with $1 million

I'd run firecalc if you haven't already. Firecalc is fine as far as it goes but for long retirements you need to be careful on the settings. You can't map the 30 year results into 50-60 results. Setting the retirement time to 60 then sounds like a good idea but it cuts the data size too small and e...
by Hyperborea
Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early-retired 35 year old with $1 million
Replies: 198
Views: 18602

Re: Early-retired 35 year old with $1 million

The problem is that after you've been retired a while or at an older age getting decent paying work again can be hard. The money from another year at a good paying job could be worth many years, maybe a decade or more, of work at a low paying job. Make sure that you have extra before you jump off t...
by Hyperborea
Sat Oct 28, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early-retired 35 year old with $1 million
Replies: 198
Views: 18602

Re: Early-retired 35 year old with $1 million

Steve Jobs had billions, access to the best medical care on the planet, still died working himself into the grave. Look up the Steve Jobs is dead principle on YouTube. Think about it. Actually, Steve Jobs was a health food/yoga/cosmic energy nut-bar. That's what did him in. He wanted to believe tha...
by Hyperborea
Sat Oct 28, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early-retired 35 year old with $1 million
Replies: 198
Views: 18602

Re: Early-retired 35 year old with $1 million

I will suggest that you read the really great multi-part series on retirement withdrawals at Early Retirement Now . He covers this topic in more detail than I've seen anywhere else. He particularly has a lot of emphasis on long retirements and has some interesting results for the 40, 50, and 60 year...
by Hyperborea
Sat Oct 28, 2017 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it ok to have 100% stocks, 15 years+
Replies: 97
Views: 8456

Re: Is it ok to have 100% stocks, 15 years+

Before joining the BH discussions I tried to determine my own safe withdrawal rate (be it age-dependent or otherwise) and came to the conclusion that, on the basis of SP500 returns between 1966 and 2016 (50 years) and the recorded dividends and inflation, a 5% WR of current portfolio value is safe ...
by Hyperborea
Fri Oct 27, 2017 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the best AA for me?
Replies: 24
Views: 1575

Re: What is the best AA for me?

I'm going to say that it just about doesn't matter. Your baseline spending is pretty much covered by your pension. You've got less than 10 years until your SS kicks in and that will more than cover the difference between fun and FUN! in your budget. So, you only need to cover 10 years and then the ...
by Hyperborea
Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the best AA for me?
Replies: 24
Views: 1575

Re: What is the best AA for me?

I'm going to say that it just about doesn't matter. Your baseline spending is pretty much covered by your pension. You've got less than 10 years until your SS kicks in and that will more than cover the difference between fun and FUN! in your budget. So, you only need to cover 10 years and then the m...