Search found 9672 matches

by HomerJ
Thu May 25, 2017 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% VTSAX need advice [Vanguard Total Stock Market]
Replies: 65
Views: 6616

Re: 100% VTSAX need advice

I'm saving around 100,000 a year and assuming 6% annual return. Since you currently have about $1 million, you are adding a substantial number to your portfolio every year. Because of this, you'll have no problems if the market crashes soon. ASSUMING you keep your job. Note that market crashes and ...
by HomerJ
Wed May 24, 2017 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% VTSAX need advice [Vanguard Total Stock Market]
Replies: 65
Views: 6616

Re: 100% VTSAX need advice

You need to think about what happens if the market drops 10-20% and then stays flat for 5-10 years. Can you retire in 10 years on 760K-850k? I'm thinking after working for another 10 years that my total net worth will be over 2 to 2.5 million. Is that because you are saving $100,000 a year or becau...
by HomerJ
Wed May 24, 2017 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: anyone ever live/living on a boat?
Replies: 30
Views: 3149

Re: anyone ever live/living on a boat?

We have all boated together before (chartered large sailboats in FL for several days overnight) and enjoyed that lifestyle. A few days is very different from a few months. Based on my research, the downside to a boat over a second residence would be that a boat will depreciate, be tighter on space ...
by HomerJ
Tue May 23, 2017 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2202

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

Not trying to ignore the very good points people have made before about all of the scenarios in which I might not be presented with, or recognize, an opportunity, to invest at a more favorable time, but the idea of going "all in" at one end of the market extreme just seems foolish on some...
by HomerJ
Tue May 23, 2017 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2202

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

Sorry on phone ... Nobel winning economist Schiller? It's on CNBC today That's a 180 degree about-face from his long-standing position on stocks. I don't get cable, but maybe it will be on Youtube or something soon. Very interesting! Whoa.. that is strange Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shill...
by HomerJ
Tue May 23, 2017 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2202

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

The alternative to that is to just use "rules of thumb" (age in bonds, save 15% minimum for retirement, etc.) which will likely work out just fine because most of those rules of thumb are based off of reasonable, conservative estimates for expected returns. When we use those rules of thum...
by HomerJ
Tue May 23, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2202

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

Personally, I use a 5% real return for my own projections of equity performance, which is about 30% less than historical averages. I don't even factor in the fact that I expect MCV, my primary asset class, to outperform the S&P 500, which it's probably going to do over the next 20 years. I make...
by HomerJ
Tue May 23, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2202

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

Your scoff that it has less than 50% predictive power. I think it has about 30% predictive power, making it one of the strongest predictors out there. Nothing else comes close. So what? If I need to drive in a nail, and all I have is a saw and a wrench, then the wrench is the "best" tool,...
by HomerJ
Tue May 23, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2202

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

Now, this is going to sound like a market timing question (and it may be), but bear with me: For those who put stock in the CAPE, why would you not pull all of your money out of the market and wait a few years? I get that you may very well miss out on a few really good years of the last legs of a b...
by HomerJ
Tue May 23, 2017 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2202

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

Your scoff that it has less than 50% predictive power. I think it has about 30% predictive power, making it one of the strongest predictors out there. Nothing else comes close. So what? If I need to drive in a nail, and all I have is a saw and a wrench, then the wrench is the "best" tool,...
by HomerJ
Tue May 23, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Invest in Average?
Replies: 34
Views: 2956

Re: Why Invest in Average?

It's a completely plausible idea which makes intuitive sense... It just doesn't quite work out that way in practice. The question I have now is why so few funds manage to beat the indices - even accounting for survivor bias, shouldn't roughly 50% of funds be above average? And yet, it's not even cl...
by HomerJ
Mon May 22, 2017 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% VTSAX need advice [Vanguard Total Stock Market]
Replies: 65
Views: 6616

Re: 100% VTSAX need advice

If you mean 75 bonds 25 stocks then that would be "aggressive in bonds." Usually the convention with those numbers is stocks first, then bonds. The possible range is 0/100 to 100/0, assuming no investments are leveraged, no short sales, etc. I meant 75% Stocks and 25% Bonds. Read the rest...
by HomerJ
Sat May 20, 2017 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convince me to get back into stocks!
Replies: 83
Views: 5556

Re: Convince me to get back into stocks!

Why do people think the stock market is high? The S&P 500 average annual return from 2000-2016 was only 2.3%. It was went down like hell from 2000-2009 and has only just recovered a bit. The long term average is 10% which leaves huge head room to grow just to return to the historical average. W...
by HomerJ
Sat May 20, 2017 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convince me to get back into stocks!
Replies: 83
Views: 5556

Re: Convince me to get back into stocks!

Well, You have a good point. Have to agree on this, and that's the main reason I still in market and did not cash out. This is just a fan interview. Some fan words from a bond person to share. Someone may benefit from it, who knows, people's perspective is different. Someone may be harmed by it as ...
by HomerJ
Sat May 20, 2017 12:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convince me to get back into stocks!
Replies: 83
Views: 5556

Re: Convince me to get back into stocks!

I recommend doing it slowly. Like convert 10% into stocks every month. or convert 10% into stocks every 3 months. until you get to your desire allocation 75% stock/ 25% cash or bonds would be pretty safe for a 27 year old. Why not 100% stocks for someone my age? Because as soon as the stock market ...
by HomerJ
Sat May 20, 2017 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convince me to get back into stocks!
Replies: 83
Views: 5556

Re: Convince me to get back into stocks!

Why do people think the stock market is high? The S&P 500 average annual return from 2000-2016 was only 2.3%. It was went down like hell from 2000-2009 and has only just recovered a bit. The long term average is 10% which leaves huge head room to grow just to return to the historical average. A...
by HomerJ
Fri May 19, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Justification for holding Emerging Markets?
Replies: 67
Views: 2967

Re: Justification for holding Emerging Markets?

NiceUnparticularMan wrote:Claiming it is literally impossible for non-US developed markets to outperform US markets over any given medium-length period strikes me as outlandishly overstated.


Who is claiming that?
by HomerJ
Thu May 18, 2017 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: have you accepted a lower cost lifestyle to retire early?
Replies: 71
Views: 8736

Re: have you accepted a lower cost lifestyle to retire early?

Not retired yet, but $50K from $2M is an extremely conservative plan. If you're really okay living on $50K, you're going to be just fine with any reasonable portfolio. That's a 2.5% withdrawal rate. conservative, true but also prudent in my view. I am personally persuaded by Hussman, Grantham, etc....
by HomerJ
Thu May 18, 2017 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Justification for holding Emerging Markets?
Replies: 67
Views: 2967

Re: Justification for holding Emerging Markets?

Without addressing the original question, I just want to add that I admire your timing. Most people question an asset class after a period of underperformance, but VWO shows a one-year return of 24.89%. So, points for originality. If you decide to get out, no one can accuse you of selling low. Yeah...
by HomerJ
Thu May 18, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Justification for holding Emerging Markets?
Replies: 67
Views: 2967

Re: Justification for holding Emerging Markets?

...People who cite the long-term performance of U.S. stocks dating back to the 19th Century and then question why anyone would invest in emerging markets today seem to have rather self-contradictory views, since the U.S. is really the ultimate EM success story... Since the term "emerging marke...
by HomerJ
Thu May 18, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Total Stock Market Index fund tax efficient?
Replies: 20
Views: 2986

Re: Is the Total Stock Market Index fund tax efficient?

If you have a million dollars in TSM, you're only paying $3000 a year in taxes on it. (And pulling down $20,000 in dividends). That's pretty tax-efficient. You'll also be paying $700 a month in fees to invest in it ... Meanwhile, the average active fund is costing you $10,000 in taxes, and $10,000 ...
by HomerJ
Thu May 18, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% VTSAX need advice [Vanguard Total Stock Market]
Replies: 65
Views: 6616

Re: 100% VTSAX need advice

Since I'm planning to work for the next 10 years I don't see the need to have Bond allocation. Markets have been flat or down for more than 10 years in the past. Even if you do go 100% stocks today, when do you plan to add bonds? When you are 5 years from retirement? 3 years? Also, you can "pl...
by HomerJ
Wed May 17, 2017 5:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Interested in lake property
Replies: 36
Views: 3780

Re: Interested in lake property

Save your money and rent a vacation place or cabin instead. You will still come out way ahead even it you rent it 10 times per year. The honeymoon will be over in a few years when the home requires maintenance and you end up spending portion of your weekend time working on your second home keeping ...
by HomerJ
Wed May 17, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?
Replies: 84
Views: 6703

Re: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?

Heck my wife and I are not in tech, and we still have enough income to qualify for $600k mortgage, not too hard at today's interest rates. I mean if I was interpreting those numbers I'd say short of some kind of major 2000-style tech implosion, home prices are not really in danger of a huge decline...
by HomerJ
Wed May 17, 2017 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?
Replies: 84
Views: 6703

Re: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?

So I don't think this is about debt or your $2M condo vs. something in Austin but about whether you really really want to make the big score (even if at expense of lifestyle). If so, stay in Bay Area would be my advice (but don't be looking for that $150K +$100K stock thing at BigCo, look for that ...
by HomerJ
Wed May 17, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What if I have enough money?
Replies: 22
Views: 4201

Re: What if I have enough money?

What are your annual or monthly expenses? Not your last salary, your expenses.

Yes, everyone else asked that, because without that information, no advice can be given.
by HomerJ
Tue May 16, 2017 6:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Interested in lake property
Replies: 36
Views: 3780

Re: Interested in lake property

We bought a lake condo about 4 years ago. We still love it. We go for two weeks in the summer (two separate 1-week vacations), and multiple 3-day weekends from May to October. We have a dock with a pontoon boat and a jetski. Being a condo, maintenance of the grounds and roof and pools and parking lo...
by HomerJ
Tue May 16, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Was there a $$$ number after which things got easier?
Replies: 72
Views: 9245

Re: Was there a $$$ number after which things got easier?

For me, it's whatever doubling of my current budget. For example, my current budget is $50k/annual. If taking out 3%/year of my portfolio yields $100k, then I'm home free, practically. At this juncture, I'm doing fine with taking only 2% and had not taken out our SS money yet. YMMV :beer You are ho...
by HomerJ
Tue May 16, 2017 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Was there a $$$ number after which things got easier?
Replies: 72
Views: 9245

Re: Was there a $$$ number after which things got easier?

So, point being that yes, if I wanted to stop working tomorrow I might need $6m (25x wages). It's not 25x wages. It's 25x expenses. Your expenses are $84k, so you only need $2 million or so, not $6 million. I think you understand this, since you go on to talk about replacing lower expenses, not wag...
by HomerJ
Tue May 16, 2017 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Was there a $$$ number after which things got easier?
Replies: 72
Views: 9245

Re: Was there a $$$ number after which things got easier?

I look forward to 3 events: 1- Knowing even if all income ceased, I'd be able to support a family indefinitely, even if at a lower standard of living than currently. Everyone will be sheltered, educated, and fed. 2- Knowing even if all income ceased, I'd be able to support a family indefinitely at ...
by HomerJ
Tue May 16, 2017 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Was there a $$$ number after which things got easier?
Replies: 72
Views: 9245

Re: Was there a $$$ number after which things got easier?

The day we paid off the house, everything got easier. But we also were halfway to our "number" as well at that point. Just a paid-off house with zero money in the bank would not have been enough. But that's about the time we realized we were well on track, and could loosen up the spending ...
by HomerJ
Thu May 11, 2017 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist
Replies: 53
Views: 5221

Re: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist

Grok, Yes there is Momentum everywhere. The AQR funds invest in equities, bonds, commodities, currencies. Diversifying across asset classes within the Style improves its efficiency lots. Dave thanks Dave. Well the fund hasn't really been through a crisis yet. I guess we'll see then if that diversif...
by HomerJ
Thu May 11, 2017 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My plan to use policy loans to fund first five years of retirement
Replies: 61
Views: 3376

Re: My plan to use policy loans to fund first five years of retirement

I should have known I couldn't ask a question about how best to deploy an existing insurance asset without hearing from "buy term, invest the difference" peanut gallery. :happy :shock: The two policies I own have been very flexible assets over the years...I have no regrets. Although I do ...
by HomerJ
Thu May 11, 2017 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My plan to use policy loans to fund first five years of retirement
Replies: 61
Views: 3376

Re: My plan to use policy loans to fund first five years of retirement

As an aside, I imagine most Bogleheads take a dim view of permanent insurance....which is certainly fine. But we have found it to be a nice way to diversify. And making use of policy loans has really come in handy over the years. Has provided a lot of peace of mind, which is difficult to quantify. ...
by HomerJ
Thu May 11, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My plan to use policy loans to fund first five years of retirement
Replies: 61
Views: 3376

Re: My plan to use policy loans to fund first five years of retirement

The interest would keep accumulating...there are no tax consequences. You better be sure you die before that policy runs out of cash value. If the policy is surrendered, you will owe a TON of taxes all at once. That life insurance agent can show you "illustrations" all he wants. He won't ...
by HomerJ
Thu May 11, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2685
Views: 734593

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks--saw it on HBO--wonderful movie. Had studied about the HeLA cells in med school. Great movie--sad to realize things like this were done in the past--today, taking tissue from someone w/o consent and make millions of dollars from that would never happen. I am not...
by HomerJ
Wed May 10, 2017 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Performance chasing... vs staying the course
Replies: 9
Views: 772

Re: Performance chasing... vs staying the course

However, I come back to wondering if the business model for the tech giants/Amazon is not given enough credit - even though I know that is probably not true. Amazon has a PE ratio of 177. You don't think they are getting enough credit? The price already expects super-duper-amazing-fantastic growth ...
by HomerJ
Wed May 10, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Purchase
Replies: 58
Views: 6972

Re: Bitcoin Purchase

donaldson wrote:Just to add a data point to this thread: I made a very small purchase of Bitcoin in early February that has since increased by 80 percent.


Sorry, you have to post the day you make the trade for it to count as a data point. :)
by HomerJ
Wed May 10, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: General question of balance and compromise
Replies: 22
Views: 1284

Re: General question of balance and compromise

Do you go for the base model car or the mid level or the top level? You're asking about balance and compromise. So what's the obvious answer? :) But actually, it all depends. Figure out what you can afford, buy a little less than that. If you can afford the mid-level, buy the base model instead... ...
by HomerJ
Tue May 09, 2017 4:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stay home with kids?
Replies: 103
Views: 7222

Re: Stay home with kids?

These people have 6 million dollars, if one or both of them don't want to work any more they are financially ok to do that, regardless of the reasons behind it. If it were me I'd probably move to a low cost of living area, buy a reasonable house and spend these years hanging out with my family. But...
by HomerJ
Tue May 09, 2017 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stay home with kids?
Replies: 103
Views: 7222

Re: Stay home with kids?

I don't think anyone could argue that there is some utility in being home when a child gets out of school or being with a child during a 3 month summer break. Diminishing returns may be closer to the mark. Personal choice for everyone. No one way is correct. There is indeed utility to staying home....
by HomerJ
Tue May 09, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 242
Views: 38696

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

So, in defense of grap003, when he's talking about a signal, he's talking about those very rare extreme valuation situations that are the flipside of the "shoeshine boys talking stocks" that got Joe Kennedy to bail on the markets in '29 or the must-have internet stocks that were the irrat...
by HomerJ
Tue May 09, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stay home with kids?
Replies: 103
Views: 7222

Re: Stay home with kids?

FWIW, my wife was a SAHM for our two children when they were young. I worked long hours when they were young and did not spend as much time with my kids as I would have liked. They both turned out fine and we have a great relationship today. I am now retired and my number one regret is that I did n...
by HomerJ
Tue May 09, 2017 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What newspaper or magazine do you pay for?
Replies: 107
Views: 4209

Re: What newspaper or magazine do you pay for?

Oh, and I cannot read newspapers.

Absolutely drives me crazy to read half a story then go to section A2, page 4. Plus you need a table to read a newspaper.

Magazines I can hold in one hand and read anywhere. And a three page story is on three consecutive pages (Crazy idea, I know!)
by HomerJ
Tue May 09, 2017 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What newspaper or magazine do you pay for?
Replies: 107
Views: 4209

Re: What newspaper or magazine do you pay for?

National Review for the conservative point of view.

Time for the liberal point of view.

I keep thinking I need to subscribe to the Economist, but it's pretty pricy.
by HomerJ
Mon May 08, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Solid justification for including all stocks & NO bonds?
Replies: 143
Views: 5934

Re: Solid justification for including all stocks & NO bonds?

Gadget wrote:When it boils down to it, you invest in index funds because you are content with receiving the market rate, not beating it. That same philosophy to me applies to bond allocation. Why beat the less volatile allocation if you don't really have to to retire well?


This. Great post.
by HomerJ
Mon May 08, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 242
Views: 38696

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Great thread. I am curious if OP has any other contrarian bets for us. Energy? I haven't heard anything about energy. Good or bad. But if you get negative sentiment + ripe valuations or positive sentiment + excessive valuations that will be your signal . Remember this forum does not count as your s...
by HomerJ
Mon May 08, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 242
Views: 38696

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

EM still seems attractively priced relative to Developed and especially US Markets for whatever that's worth... EM was also attractively priced relative to Developed and especially US Markets 6 years ago, and it has done very poorly in comparison. "attractively priced" and comparing PE ra...
by HomerJ
Mon May 08, 2017 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Solid justification for including all stocks & NO bonds?
Replies: 143
Views: 5934

Re: Solid justification for including all stocks & NO bonds?

I just wanted to jump in and say that I am following this thread with great interest. I'm a bit older, having just turned 50. I have a high paying job that many people can choose to do into their 60s or even 70s if they wish to do so. Many in my profession are able to do fractional levels of work, ...
by HomerJ
Mon May 08, 2017 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why save so much for when you're old?
Replies: 163
Views: 18039

Re: Why save so much for when you're old?

it seems like the amount needed usually requires a lifelong sacrifice of saving relentlessly and living frugally. Start at 10% or 5%, or even 0% savings if you want. Then save half your raises going forward. Every time you get a promotion or a raise, you'll get to increase your spending, AND at the...

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