Search found 9116 matches

by HomerJ
Thu Dec 08, 2016 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 91
Views: 1528

Of course rebalancing is market timing. When stocks are low you buy more. When stocks are high you sell. Any explanation to the contrary is doublespeak. I am not arguing in favor of, or against, rebalancing. I'll leave that up to the experts. But call it what it is. To maintain a set AA, you are fo...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 91
Views: 1528

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

The "prediction" aspect is clear. It's not an intuitive prediction, it's not an event-based prediction, it's not based on timing signals and McClellan oscillators and Stoller STARC bands, but it is a prediction that "an asset with past higher/lower than average returns will have futu...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 91
Views: 1528

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

Based on this thesis (which is not time variant), I invested in a passive world/ global capitalized stocks only portfolio and have done precisely the same come rain or shine in this time frame. The investment philosophy requires no market timing or rebalancing or any such active strategies. Simply ...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Current Market rally
Replies: 32
Views: 2112

Re: Current Market rally

In a nutshell: Investors shouldn't flee stocks simply because the Shiller PE is above average. They shouldn't flee stocks even when the Shiller PE is way above average. But history has said they should flee stocks when the Shiller PE is at extreme levels -- like now. Only when the CAPE is "hig...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Current Market rally
Replies: 32
Views: 2112

Re: Current Market rally

As the previous posters all intimated. no one knows and no one should care. If one has a plan, an asset allocation plan, then if one hits a rebalancing trigger point set in that plan, then one should rebalance. Full disclosure: I hit a rebalancing trigger point and have rebalanced. Same here. No on...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 145
Views: 13644

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

In reality all of these retirement discussions are simple. Take expenses, subtract ss and pensions, and figure out what SWR is needed to make ends meet. Get below 3% and you are safe. Get over 5%, and you don't have enough money. And in between you have to figure out how you feel about risks. Throu...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 91
Views: 1528

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

It's very different than the asset allocation situation, in which you might not rebalance for 6 months, then suddenly rebalance 5 times in one week, then again in 2 months three times. Because the second situation is reacting to market volatility and sentiment while the first is a consistent, time-...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 91
Views: 1528

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

Of course, it's possible that your ability to take risk has also changed (you changed jobs, you had a kid, a hurricane destroyed your house, you aged 1 year, etc), so maybe your target allocation is now 65%, or 55%, or 75%. So you rebalance to that. Or maybe it just happens to be 70%, so you do not...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 91
Views: 1528

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

A fun thread. I'll add some thoughts. Market timing is predictive. Rebalancing is reactive. Market timing is when you lose money. Rebalancing is when you make money. Rebalancing tries to keep your risk at a pre-determined level. Market timing can be risk-on or risk-off. For some reason folks are af...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 91
Views: 1528

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

What I was hoping for was a technical/backtested analysis of data that shows that rebalancing doesn't hurt returns. Hmm, well, that's completely different. It may indeed hurt returns, but many of us pick an AA for risk-management, not to maximize returns. So rebalancing if the markets get wildly sk...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 91
Views: 1528

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

By buying and selling in reaction to movements in your allocation band, you are buying and selling in reaction to sentiment, which is inherently forward thinking / predictive. Therefore, market timing. Sorry I don't buy this argument. I set my AA for risk management. I don't want to have more than ...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 08, 2016 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 91
Views: 1528

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

2) Investor wants to maintain 75/25 stock/bond ratio. Every time stocks or bonds go more than 5% away from his allocation, he rebalances. As a result, he is reacting to market performance. Reacting to what has already happened is rebalancing. Market-timing is making changes based on what you THINK ...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 145
Views: 13644

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

"The costs of basic food, clothes, and the like just isn't high enough to burn through more than 100k." Here is some of the reality: real-estate tax-85k, housekeeper-45k; electric, gas, water and cable for 6 properties- 90k; maintenance (including landscaping) on 6 properties (65k); Insur...
by HomerJ
Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 145
Views: 13644

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

I have flown commercial a lot. And I tried various other private charters. The cost of net jets versus other private options is not significant unless you get lucky with filling open return legs and other factors. I have 6 kids and a dog. Its so amazing to be able to decide to go to our place in fl...
by HomerJ
Wed Dec 07, 2016 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 183
Views: 14242

Re: Retreat to cash

My current situation is as follows (and I welcome feedback). By observing the 2008 correction, which I remained fully invested, it is clear that even the worst losses can take up to 5 years to get back. Since I am within 5 years of retirement I do not want to be in the market with the fear of a cor...
by HomerJ
Wed Dec 07, 2016 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 145
Views: 13644

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

I'm 53yr old, have ~$8M in various mutual funds, stocks, ETFs, bond funds. House is almost paid off with no plans to move. 3 kids to put through college. Living in the SF bay area in a house valued at about $4M, and all this does not make us feel wealthy with a net worth over $14M (including a rent...
by HomerJ
Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I fill out survey evaluation of my boss?
Replies: 40
Views: 2929

Re: Should I fill out survey evaluation of my boss?

I'm leaning toward not filling out the survey. There was a similar survey about the upper level management as a whole that did not evaluate a specific person. They met with us and basically told us how to fill it out beforehand. I never filled out that survey, and no one ever approach me about it a...
by HomerJ
Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring in a Decade after Graduation
Replies: 56
Views: 4018

Re: Retiring in a Decade after Graduation

You have two big problems: 1- The markets are at record levels. Sure, that doesn't mean they won't go higher, but in 10 years, how much more do you think they can go up? If you started in this path around 2008, you'd have a much better chance. But then again, markets are cyclical and you have to be...
by HomerJ
Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring in a Decade after Graduation
Replies: 56
Views: 4018

Re: Retiring in a Decade after Graduation

Put half your savings in 401k and half in taxable.

If you can't max out 401k using this method, I seriously doubt you'll be able to retire in 10 years.
by HomerJ
Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 145
Views: 13644

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

itstoomuch wrote:What means, "MMM" ?


Mr. Money Mustache.

A blog written by a guy who pretends he is retired on $25k a year.
by HomerJ
Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring in a Decade after Graduation
Replies: 56
Views: 4018

Re: Retiring in a Decade after Graduation

I am a recent graduate with a degree in mechanical engineering. I am also highly interested in retiring early so I can pursue things that really matter to me. I would have a hard time figuring out anything that would matter a lot to someone that would not somehow have a niche that could work with m...
by HomerJ
Tue Dec 06, 2016 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flying Across Atlantic with 98th Percentile 18-Month Child
Replies: 114
Views: 5901

Re: Flying Across Atlantic with 98th Percentile 18-Month Child

Just a word of advice. Our first and second kids traveled all over the place with my wife as toddlers. Our third kid went nowhere with us (at least not until he could actually create memories). So my wife has experienced both kinds of trips. Traveling to exotic or historical or cultural areas WITHOU...
by HomerJ
Tue Dec 06, 2016 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 145
Views: 13644

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

"$9 million of your NW is real-estate. Is that all houses you use? Or does some of it generate rent? And how much?" Its 6 properties. If I explained it, you wouldn't believe it. Primary residence and 5 "beach" properties. All get used. Well, then they are costing you money inste...
by HomerJ
Tue Dec 06, 2016 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 145
Views: 13644

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

What works for me is to think not in terms of "wealthy" but in terms of "financial independence". It's easier to measure. Agreed. It's a very subjective word. Some people think "rich" and "wealthy" equals private jet and gold rings. I think it means the same ...
by HomerJ
Tue Dec 06, 2016 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 145
Views: 13644

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

Isn't the better question: at what ratio of nest egg to savings should you feel wealthy? You mean nest egg to expenses, right? If you can cover your expenses forever without working (25x-33x expenses), I assume one would feel pretty wealthy. Even if you can't cover your current expenses forever wit...
by HomerJ
Tue Dec 06, 2016 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 187
Views: 76547

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Looking at a long term price chart of the S&P 500, for which such data exists, might lend perspective to the inevitability of "crashes" and downturns and various other thoughts about what the stock market does. Good point. But here's a long-term chart that terrifies me: http://www.mac...
by HomerJ
Tue Dec 06, 2016 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 145
Views: 13644

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

"I encourage you to run the math on whether you have enough. I bet you can spend under 1 mil per year with some very very basic prioritization." Actually, my annual expenses are in that range. Of course I could cut costs but I'm not ready to do that yet. My one true luxury "frivolous...
by HomerJ
Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flying Across Atlantic with 98th Percentile 18-Month Child
Replies: 114
Views: 5901

Re: Flying Across Atlantic with 98th Percentile 18-Month Child

Leave the kid with grandparents. Seriously. Why ruin an amazing trip with your spouse? (Unless maybe the grandparents are in Spain). This must be your first kid. He will survive and thrive without you, and the two of you probably need to reconnect as a married couple, after 18 months with a baby/tod...
by HomerJ
Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much risk do we need to take? Retired at age 47.
Replies: 56
Views: 5604

Re: How much risk do we need to take? Retired at age 47.

We can handle risk and rode out the 2008 crash without changing a thing. You were working then, and bringing in money. And the next crash may not come back as fast. Imagine your $3.5 million invested 65/35.... A 50% stock market crash will mean your portfolio will lose over $1.1 million dollars. Ho...
by HomerJ
Mon Dec 05, 2016 5:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to define "Retirement?"
Replies: 38
Views: 2187

Re: How to define "Retirement?"

Not to get into politics, but just to use an example: By many accepted definitions of retirement, I think that Donald Trump is retired. Interesting. That just means it's very hard to define "retirement". But just like Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart said he couldn't easily define obs...
by HomerJ
Mon Dec 05, 2016 5:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lost: Could really use some advice on our next round of financial goals
Replies: 25
Views: 2121

Re: Lost: Could really use some advice on our next round of financial goals

I would not advance pay a 4.125% 30 year fixed rate mortgage. That's good inflation protection, and not better than the rate of return to be expected from a balanced investment portfolio. I would absolutely make extra payments on a 4.125% mortgage... It's a GUARANTEED 4.125%, and there's no where e...
by HomerJ
Mon Dec 05, 2016 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 145
Views: 13644

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

Money is never enough. You ask W Buffet what he is satisfied with his $100bil. He is 80s and still worry about that 100bil is enough for his retirement. This is my favorite article about that: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/04/secret-fears-of-the-super-rich/308419/ "Roughly 1...
by HomerJ
Mon Dec 05, 2016 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 145
Views: 13644

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

I don't want to get all Disney Princess on this conversation, but I genuinely feel wealthy and my net worth is probably $100k. But I have acquired a wife, a son, a dog, a small house and a reliable car. I never worry about money . That's the key to feeling rich in my mind. Keep your expenses low, a...
by HomerJ
Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 145
Views: 13644

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

I'm 53yr old, have ~$8M in various mutual funds, stocks, ETFs, bond funds. House is almost paid off with no plans to move. 3 kids to put through college. Living in the SF bay area in a house valued at about $4M, and all this does not make us feel wealthy with a net worth over $14M (including a rent...
by HomerJ
Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 145
Views: 13644

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

Seriously. $30 Million is enough, no matter where you live. I remember a doctor client 10+ years ago who had a little over $15m. They lived a pretty reasonable life considering their income. That is they lived well below their income but still a very nice life in terms of travel, taking care of the...
by HomerJ
Mon Dec 05, 2016 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 145
Views: 13644

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

I see moving to a NICER house with a BETTER view for 50% of the cost, and no longer working 60-70 hours a week as a step forward, not backwards. I tend to agree with you here but remember there are many facets that make a place enjoyable to different people. Political, religious, social, weather, e...
by HomerJ
Mon Dec 05, 2016 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 145
Views: 13644

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

Seriously. $30 Million is enough, no matter where you live. I remember a doctor client 10+ years ago who had a little over $15m. They lived a pretty reasonable life considering their income. That is they lived well below their income but still a very nice life in terms of travel, taking care of the...
by HomerJ
Mon Dec 05, 2016 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 145
Views: 13644

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

Silicon Valley is a crazy place. This NYT article is (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/05/technology/05rich.html) 9 years old, but still very relevant. Interesting article. I found this perspective eye-opening. Umberto Milletti has fantasized about downsizing his life to ease the financial pressures ...
by HomerJ
Mon Dec 05, 2016 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 145
Views: 13644

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

It depends on you. I have a NW of over 30mm (9mm real estate and 21mm stocks/bonds/cash) and no debt. I'm 51 years old and I would like to retire but I am not yet confident in doing it. On the one hand, life can be short so I would prefer to do exactly what I want each day. On the other hand a poss...
by HomerJ
Mon Dec 05, 2016 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 145
Views: 13644

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

I'm 53yr old, have ~$8M in various mutual funds, stocks, ETFs, bond funds. House is almost paid off with no plans to move. 3 kids to put through college. Living in the SF bay area in a house valued at about $4M, and all this does not make us feel wealthy with a net worth over $14M (including a rent...
by HomerJ
Mon Dec 05, 2016 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 145
Views: 13644

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

I'm 53yr old, have ~$8M in various mutual funds, stocks, ETFs, bond funds. House is almost paid off with no plans to move. 3 kids to put through college. Living in the SF bay area in a house valued at about $4M, and all this does not make us feel wealthy with a net worth over $14M (including a rent...
by HomerJ
Sun Dec 04, 2016 11:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to define "Retirement?"
Replies: 38
Views: 2187

Re: How to define "Retirement?"

Seems to me that if one works because one needs money, that is not retirement. If one works for other reasons, that may be retirement. What do you think? I know someone who led his company to an IPO and personally made $3 billion from it. Clearly he doesn't need the money. He started another compan...
by HomerJ
Sun Dec 04, 2016 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to define "Retirement?"
Replies: 38
Views: 2187

Re: How to define "Retirement?"

Seems to me that if one works because one needs money, that is not retirement. If one works for other reasons, that may be retirement. This. If you work because you need the money, you're not retired. If you work because you want extra spending money, you're semi-retired. If you work for other non-...
by HomerJ
Fri Dec 02, 2016 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is This Insane?
Replies: 28
Views: 3473

Re: Is This Insane?

I could retire in my 30s with a 4% withdraw rate and multiply my money by my 60s, assuming the past is similar to the future. This part is probably incorrect. Sequence of returns matters when you are withdrawing. If you just let them sit (in the past anyway), you would have gotten those large gains...
by HomerJ
Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I buy a new car for safety's sake?
Replies: 152
Views: 6082

Re: Should I buy a new car for safety's sake?

http://www.foxnews.com/auto/2016/12/01/man-crashes-while-streaming-114-mph-drive-on-facebook-live.html After heart disease, lung disease and cancer, the next most common cause of death is accidents. Exercise, don't overeat, don't smoke, get a colonoscopy, mammogram, and if you have the means, upgra...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 01, 2016 10:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feeling like you've "made it"
Replies: 107
Views: 10014

Re: Feeling like you've "made it"

This is what helps me. We have a small lake condo that is paid off, with low carrying costs (Insurance, property taxes, and HOA fees combined only run $6k a year). I love the fact that we "could" live there very cheaply if we had to. I'm always fascinating at different areas cost of livin...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 01, 2016 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The new normal: 2%, 3%?
Replies: 72
Views: 4286

Re: The new normal: 2%, 3%?

I think the 4% is overrated myself. First it gives a 5% failure rate (doesn't always work even historically, the 4% SWR gave a 95% success rate as I understand it). Again, remember that "failure" doesn't mean you run out of money. We're not robots. If your money is depleting, you spend le...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 01, 2016 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The new normal: 2%, 3%?
Replies: 72
Views: 4286

Re: The new normal: 2%, 3%?

4% is still a very conservative number. It is not an average. It represents the WORST times of the past. Worst of the past of one of the best finishers since it was based on US returns. I tend to agree that people tend to really overdue it with the diminishingly small SWR, but there were lots of co...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 01, 2016 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feeling like you've "made it"
Replies: 107
Views: 10014

Re: Feeling like you've "made it"

...I have found that I have more financial anxiety now than I did when I first started my career and had $0 to my name. This is a big part of what bothers me. At 22, when I had much less, I didn't really worry. I was very confident. So why do I now see risk and potential failure all around me? Was ...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 01, 2016 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The new normal: 2%, 3%?
Replies: 72
Views: 4286

Re: The new normal: 2%, 3%?

Well you have to be specific about assets. I believe the evidence that various analysts have compiled arguing that returns are going to be lower in the coming 30 years than they were in the past 30 years. 4% isn't based on the past 30 years. Returns have to be lower than they were during the GREAT ...

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