Search found 8325 matches

by HomerJ
Mon May 02, 2016 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling in May and Walking Away?
Replies: 83
Views: 6607

Re: Selling in May and Walking Away?

tyc wrote:How about this SOS method.

STAY in the market, OBSERVE market activities, and when the time is right SELL (market finally falling - like a bear market).


Umm no.

Because you can't tell when a bear market is starting until after it's already dropped.
by HomerJ
Mon May 02, 2016 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hitting an investment crossroads
Replies: 21
Views: 2584

Re: Hitting an investment crossroads

Half paying off the mortgage, half into taxable.

Total Stock Market Index Fund is VERY tax-efficient. It will barely increase your tax bill.
by HomerJ
Mon May 02, 2016 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: University of Virginia vs University of Miami
Replies: 134
Views: 7896

Re: University of Virginia vs University of Miami

Faculty at UVA will be stronger. And that is nice. However... More importantly, his peers at UVA will be significantly smarter. Even more importantly, his peers at UVA will have much more developed life skills and maturity. Their high school accomplishments will be more substantial and their work e...
by HomerJ
Sun May 01, 2016 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WOW fantastic Cars in the Wild
Replies: 33
Views: 2214

Re: WOW fantastic Cars in the Wild

My next-door neighbor's parents stop by all the time in their BMW i8 - personally think it is hideous. One of my best friend's drives a '14 Ferrari 458, just had his second kid so he bought a Tesla S as a family vehicle. A guy about a mile down the road has an entire stable (at least a dozen) of ve...
by HomerJ
Sun May 01, 2016 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2901
Views: 612317

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

JonnyDVM wrote:This guy knows what he's talking about. And he appreciates a good Simpsons reference. My kind of guy. :sharebeer


Shut up, I know it!

:)

(See, I can do Bender quotes too!)
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 29, 2016 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: University of Virginia vs University of Miami
Replies: 134
Views: 7896

Re: University of Virginia vs University of Miami

The quality of the college should always come before any other consideration. Unfortunately, this is very hard to quantify. If your son is bright enough to be accepted to UVA he will do well at either school and after he graduates. Many would argue that this could be re-written to: If your son is b...
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 29, 2016 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Young Male Living with Parents
Replies: 83
Views: 4078

Re: Young Male Living with Parents

I don't see getting an apartment for social reasons as somehow making one more mature. That actually sounds like a immature reasoning. I see someone willing to delay gratitude by sacrificing early on to reap the rewards later by willing to stay at home and save money as a far greater indicator of m...
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 29, 2016 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Young Male Living with Parents
Replies: 83
Views: 4078

Re: Young Male Living with Parents

Socially, no complaints. Good-looking girlfriend and lots of friends. Go out every Friday and Saturday night. Take vacations regularly. Attend sporting events. No issues there. Do your friends or girlfriend come over to your house? Does your girlfriend ever spend the night? Also if I was your fathe...
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 27, 2016 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: mortgage pre payment, why?
Replies: 101
Views: 10293

Re: mortgage pre payment, why?

I'd rather have $500k in cash and a $500k mortgage (given today's ultra-low rates) than no cash and no mortgage. I'd rather have $500k invested and no mortgage instead of $1 million invested and a $500k mortgage. If the money was in bonds or CDs, you'd probably get just as good a return paying off ...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 21, 2016 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 176
Views: 21434

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Nicolas wrote:Nobody's investing in Czechoslovakia, it doesn't exist.


Which highlights one of the dangers of investing in emerging markets nicely.
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 20, 2016 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2901
Views: 612317

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

to clarify when you say 50/50, you're talking 50% equity / 50% bond allocations correct? Yes, but it could be 30/70 or 70/30 or you could substitute CDs for some bonds, etc. If the crash does happen like you think it will, you can still exchange cash or bonds for stocks, and if a crash doesn't happ...
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 20, 2016 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2901
Views: 612317

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The problem is, there were stocks in 1998 that were also $100/share for a URL and an idea. And if you had shorted them, you would have been broke as they rose to $200/share in 1999. Oh really? What makes you think a mere doubling of a share price would cause me to not be able to cover a short. Now ...
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 20, 2016 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2901
Views: 612317

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Problem for me is I don't have time on my side as I was late to the investment party. You're in your 40s... You have plenty of time. Options: (1) Invest 50/50, market drops 50%, then slowly heads back up... In 10-20 years, you still end up (very likely) with some decent average returns. (2) Invest ...
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 20, 2016 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2901
Views: 612317

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Either outcome is good for the Bogleheads. If the markets continue to steamroll up, your IRA's will be worth more, my cash will be eaten away by inflation and you can tell me how wrong and foolish I am, and if the markets correct, it will present a great buying opportunity for you to buy more and b...
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 20, 2016 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2901
Views: 612317

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

If you don't believe that, you must believe you're smarter than everyone else. L. You say that like we're collectively all so brilliant, all the time. No, if we all have the same information and you make a different conclusion than the consensus that you act on, you must believe that you are smarte...
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 20, 2016 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2901
Views: 612317

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I never wanted to be a market timer as I don't have the stomach for it and in my heart, I'm a true Boglehead. But there are so many warning sayings, proceed with extreme caution, that I can't ignore them anymore. The warning signs were there in 2007 and they're back now. History will repeat itself....
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 20, 2016 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2901
Views: 612317

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

With Brexit looming and an election, it's going to b a volatile year. I would suggest you read older threads on this site (including THIS one), and see people, just as confident as you are right now, post in 2010, and 2011, and 2012, and 2013, and 2014, and 2015, that a crash is coming very soon, b...
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 20, 2016 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How To Find My (retirement) Number?
Replies: 64
Views: 4577

Re: How To Find My (retirement) Number?

KlangFool wrote:a person should not ASSUME by default that he / she will be fully employed all the way until SS retirement age.


I agree with that too... but you don't have to be fully employed all the way until SS retirement age for it to factor in your planning.
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 20, 2016 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How To Find My (retirement) Number?
Replies: 64
Views: 4577

Re: How To Find My (retirement) Number?

It is very simple. If a person is forced to retire at 45 years old, that person has to survive until 62 before SS kick in. That is 17 years. So, how does taking SS into account matters? How about 40 years old? How about 55 years old? 25x expenses supposedly will last 30 years. If 17 years (retired ...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 19, 2016 11:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How To Find My (retirement) Number?
Replies: 64
Views: 4577

Re: How To Find My (retirement) Number?

Plan for the worst. Hope for the best, To take SS into account is assume the BEST. Aka, a person could survive until 62 years old. IMHO, that is bad planning and unrealistic. KlangFool This is exactly how I plan. I assume that social security will be no more when I retire. I assume medicare will be...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 19, 2016 11:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How To Find My (retirement) Number?
Replies: 64
Views: 4577

Re: How To Find My (retirement) Number?

SS should still be part of your planning... Even if you have to "bridge the gap" between 55 and 63, that's still only part of your retirement years. A good portion of your retirement years you will get income from SS, even if you retire well before SS retirement age. HomerJ, 1) I am aimin...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2901
Views: 612317

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Sometimes there are so many warning flags waving that you have to pay attention, other times not so much. Now is a time where technical analysis, and economic logic are screaming They have screamed before. They will scream again. They will be right, every once in a while. Most of the time they are ...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 19, 2016 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How To Find My (retirement) Number?
Replies: 64
Views: 4577

Re: How To Find My (retirement) Number?

I'll have, what, a 18-20 year career? That's going to equate to so little Social Security that it might as well be zero. This is incorrect. 20 years will still give you a substantial percentage of the SS you would have gotten if you had worked a full 35 years. It's not linear. You'd probably get 75...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 19, 2016 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How To Find My (retirement) Number?
Replies: 64
Views: 4577

Re: How To Find My (retirement) Number?

Da5id, IMHO, to find your retirement number, just take your current annual expense and multiply by a number between 25 to 40. Do not assume that you will be retire by 62 and can use the social security income to offset the expenses. KlangFool Fine, that is a point of view. But are you actually advo...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 19, 2016 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How To Find My (retirement) Number?
Replies: 64
Views: 4577

Re: How To Find My (retirement) Number?

Don't all of these numbers like 25x and 40x assume no social security. With social security you probably need a lot less right ? Yes, Social Security should be considered. The easiest way is to subtract that number from your expenses, and then multiply what's left by 25x (or 40x if you are crazy co...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How To Find My (retirement) Number?
Replies: 64
Views: 4577

Re: How To Find My (retirement) Number?

Are there bogleheads who have a number in mind they attempt to reach or surpass on the date they retire? I asked this to a few friends and they said they save as much as possible or others say 10-15% of your take home pay each year. Those sound quite general to me. I realize there are factors (infl...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 19, 2016 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about U.S. debt and U.S. land
Replies: 3
Views: 428

Question about U.S. debt and U.S. land

Time magazine had a cover story about the large U.S. debt. I was talking about it to my co-worker, and he made the interesting observation that the U.S. has assets that other countries don't have. Not that I think the U.S. would sell off it's hundreds of millions of acres of government-owned land, b...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 19, 2016 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2901
Views: 612317

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

[...] Remember, in 1996, the market was considered highly overvalued, and had just finished a 9 year bull-run from the 1987 crash, yet it DOUBLED again before the next crash happened. Someone waiting on the sidelines in 1996 never got to buy back in cheaper. Even after the crash, the market was mor...
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 18, 2016 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2901
Views: 612317

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

If the economy was alright, the interest rates wouldn't be low and the GDP wouldn't be almost flat (soon to be negative). I'll bet you a substantial sum of money that the Gross Domestic Product of the United States doesn't go negative within the next four quarters. Heh, I think he meant GDP growth,...
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 18, 2016 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2901
Views: 612317

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

a once in a lifetime buying opportunity is coming. You may be 100% right about this... But what you should have learned is that "timing" the market is near impossible. I'm 50/50 stocks/bonds because I also fully expect a crash someday. But I don't know when, so I'm still holding on to my ...
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 18, 2016 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I know I have enough to retire
Replies: 17
Views: 3751

Re: How do I know I have enough to retire

Based upon the information provided, I would say the OP does not have enough to retire. Sorry. What information was provided? I think what's not clear is the information provided. Does he have a $125k salary? Does his wife? Do they make that much together? I'm not quite sure what he means by "...
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 18, 2016 12:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I know I have enough to retire
Replies: 17
Views: 3751

Re: How do I know I have enough to retire

obgyn65 wrote:Based upon the information provided, I would say the OP does not have enough to retire. Sorry.


What information was provided?
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 18, 2016 12:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I know I have enough to retire
Replies: 17
Views: 3751

Re: How do I know I have enough to retire

What are your expenses? Not how much you or your wife makes... how much do you spend each month? You need to track your spending and figure that out first. Your pension and SS will give you $83,000 a year, and your wife makes $125,000 a year. That's without touching your savings. That's a ton of mon...
by HomerJ
Sat Apr 16, 2016 8:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: mortgage pre payment, why?
Replies: 101
Views: 10293

Re: mortgage pre payment, why?

boglebill2015 wrote:How did a 45% bonds, 45% stock, 10% cash portfolio do in your case.


What's the point of holding 55% in bonds and cash, possibly, even likely, making less than 3%, when you have a sure-thing 3% by pre-paying your mortgage?
by HomerJ
Sat Apr 16, 2016 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats with the hedge fund hating?
Replies: 60
Views: 4224

Re: Whats with the hedge fund hating?

Find the good ones and I don't see a problem. I'd rather pay the 2/20 management fee on 20% returns than .05% on 6% or lover. I've been around the business for several years and have seen it first hand. Sure, I'd pay 2/20 for 20% returns too... So which hedge funds are guaranteed to return 20% a ye...
by HomerJ
Sat Apr 16, 2016 12:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: mortgage pre payment, why?
Replies: 101
Views: 10293

Re: mortgage pre payment, why?

Yeah, it really comes down to "guaranteed" 3% return versus "likely, but not guaranteed" higher return from the stock market. It's certainly possible that the stock market could take a dive and stay down for a long time... and you're more likely to also lose your job in such situ...
by HomerJ
Sat Apr 16, 2016 12:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: mortgage pre payment, why?
Replies: 101
Views: 10293

Re: mortgage pre payment, why?

My mortage is $4K a month, today, tomorrow, for the next 27 years. My expenses are $4000 a month less than yours, today, tomorrow, for the next 27 years. That's why. :) To elaborate... I feel there's more freedom when your monthly expenses are low, than when your monthly expenses are high, even wit...
by HomerJ
Sat Apr 16, 2016 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How strong is your belief in AQR?
Replies: 47
Views: 5040

Re: How strong is your belief in AQR?

I think though that "going broke" as a money manager does not necessarily mean you lost a massive % from your investment's, so I think that may be exaggerating his downside performance a bit when you say he "almost went broke". When they talk about that stuff, it is from investo...
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 15, 2016 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How strong is your belief in AQR?
Replies: 47
Views: 5040

Re: How strong is your belief in AQR?

Seems a bit hypocritical to say someone had two huge losses in the last 20 years, when EVERYONE's equity funds had two significant losses in the same time period...I'm willing to bet your equity funds did too. He almost went broke... a couple more months and he would have gone to zero. That's becau...
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 15, 2016 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How strong is your belief in AQR?
Replies: 47
Views: 5040

Re: How strong is your belief in AQR?

Basically, he sets up models based on historical data. So do we all. A vanilla U.S. 60/40 portfolio is based on the positive historical data so a lot of people do it and we all expect and "hope" that it will continue to work. There are no guarantees in any allocation. Japan's stock market...
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 15, 2016 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats with the hedge fund hating?
Replies: 60
Views: 4224

Re: Whats with the hedge fund hating?

Find the good ones and I don't see a problem. I'd rather pay the 2/20 management fee on 20% returns than .05% on 6% or lover. I've been around the business for several years and have seen it first hand. Sure, I'd pay 2/20 for 20% returns too... So which hedge funds are guaranteed to return 20% a ye...
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Magic Number? How much to save for retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 6138

Re: Magic Number? How much to save for retirement

I took our annual expenses, rounded up 20% as a buffer, multiplied by 25, and got a number. I figure that amount will allow me to retire at any age, since I'd have a SWR of less than 4%. This is this easiest way. Expenses are what matter, not income. Calculating annual expenses is the hard part, bu...
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 15, 2016 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How strong is your belief in AQR?
Replies: 47
Views: 5040

Re: How strong is your belief in AQR?

I wouldn't invest a dime with this guy. Article from 2009 http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB124303417991748685 Mr. Asness, 42 years old, has seen a number of changes over his long career managing money. But he had never seen a market quite like the one that pounded his hedge fund in the past year and a ...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 14, 2016 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you measure which retirement income strategy is best? By Michael Kitces
Replies: 21
Views: 1958

Re: How do you measure which retirement income strategy is best? By Michael Kitces

I don't understand why Option A gives the least amount of income. A SPIA (even inflation-adjusted) for a couple of 65-year olds would pay more than 3.3% The whole section comparing B to A seems way off, since he has such low numbers for A. If those numbers change, all the conclusions change as well.
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 12, 2016 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is the draw of active management?
Replies: 37
Views: 2025

Re: what is the draw of active management?

There could be a legitimate case to be made for higher income people who will have a higher marginal tax rate in retirement to make a portion of their retirement investments in taxable. This is because all withdrawals from tax deferred accounts are taxes at higher ordinary income tax rates. Whereas...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 12, 2016 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 176
Views: 21434

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

I happen to own a Roth IRA that has been 100% Vanguard Emerging Markets for at least 6 years (that's how far back my spreadsheet goes). No changes to it, no new contributions. In April 2010, it was worth $13,533. As of today, it is worth $12,553. PE ratio for Emerging Markets has been low since 2011...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 12, 2016 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds are such a lousy investment
Replies: 43
Views: 4830

Re: Bonds are such a lousy investment

Buy a SPIA with some of it.

Build a CD ladder.
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 11, 2016 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is the draw of active management?
Replies: 37
Views: 2025

Re: what is the draw of active management?

is there some other psychological factor that draws people to active management? Why are people so convinced that it's possible to beat the market (sufficiently to outweigh expense, I might add) and not even very difficult if you are smart enough? Because almost every other field has experts. A guy...
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 11, 2016 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads too conservative?
Replies: 135
Views: 13065

Re: Are Bogleheads too conservative?

As far as funds go, if i find a managed fund with superior returns to an index fund in up and down markets then that is what i invest in. Heh, sure, if you can find a fund that will have superior returns GOING FORWARD compared to an index fund, one should definitely invest in that. Do you have a cr...
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 11, 2016 12:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job Offer in Hand, Delaying Notice
Replies: 42
Views: 3531

Re: Job Offer in Hand, Delaying Notice

jf89 wrote:To clarify for some of the responses below, there is a 0% chance I'll be escorted out of the building when I give notice.


Oh, then tell them immediately.

If you're 100% sure it's a 0% chance. But why would you post this thread at all if you were 100% sure?

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