Search found 10177 matches

by HomerJ
Fri Nov 17, 2017 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6026

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

So I am not telling people to run for the hills in terror. I am not telling people to sell their stocks. What I am saying is that additional caution at this point is warranted. I understand your points, I really do. I'm not saying you are wrong. The chances for a crash or future lower returns (for ...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6026

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I just think it is foolish to say that valuations don't matter, they clearly do. None of this is exact, we can sustain high stock returns if P/E ratios keep expanding. But they won't keep expanding into infinity. At some point, there will be a reversion to the mean. At some point if this keeps us, ...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MoviePass-Too good to be true, but it's legit.
Replies: 127
Views: 13339

Re: MoviePass-Too good to be true, but it's legit.

I have no idea what a production company or studio would be willing to pay for their information, but I know they are willing to pay millions for 30 secs of air time on television. 5 million for a 30s superbowl ad seen by 100 million people 100 million people *10/ticket is 1 billion dollars I'd be ...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla truck unveil
Replies: 64
Views: 3579

Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Stock is up about $12 this AM premarket. Not a BH thing but when Elon Musk has an event like this you usually see this sort of price action. So if you had bought, even at the high $318, yesterday for 100 shares, you could probably get out this AM with $700. I know, I know. But not an investment, a ...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pile of Cash - What to do
Replies: 24
Views: 2443

Re: Pile of Cash - What to do

alpenglow wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:22 am
I would withdraw the cash and swim in it like Scrooge McDuck.
Makes a lot more sense than trying to dive into gold coins. That would hurt!
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Request for Promotion letter to Senior Management
Replies: 155
Views: 12044

Re: Request for Promotion letter to Senior Management

I am surprised about the - find a better offer and threaten to quit now responses, considering one of my main responsibilities is to ensure my mom has a comfortable remaining life and the fact that the flexibility in my current position affords me that capability. I thought you were younger too... ...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Request for Promotion letter to Senior Management
Replies: 155
Views: 12044

Re: Request for Promotion letter to Senior Management

The right way to do it is to schedule time with the person and instead of saying “I need to be promoted” instead sat “what do I need to demonstrate to get to the next level?” This. Always ask "What do I need to do to get promoted?" Get specifics. Be ready to look for another job if you meet their r...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6026

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I just think sticking fingers in your ears and saying la, la, la, I can't hear you just doesn't seem like a reasoned approach to investing. Is that what I'm doing? Or am I saying "No one knows enough to predict the stock market"? The "experts" get things wrong all the time, so I don't bother listen...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Selling my house in Miami, is it smart decision?
Replies: 15
Views: 1575

Re: Selling my house in Miami, is it smart decision?

Rodrigo, Unfortunately, you've come to the wrong place for the advice your seeking. No one on this board (or collectively) can accurately assess whether it's sensible to sell your house now or wait 6 months or wait 10 years. If you care to post additional details about your financials, then you'll ...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Selling my house in Miami, is it smart decision?
Replies: 15
Views: 1575

Re: Selling my house in Miami, is it smart decision?

Owning a house long-term in Miami does not sound like a good idea to me. Why? Just curious. Flooding. Miami is built on limestone, so you can't even build a wall around it to keep the sea out; it soaks up from underneath. They recently upgraded their pumps, so they are somewhat keeping up with the ...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6026

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

One of the problems with assessing what a normalized P/E should be for an entire universe of stocks for a given country over time is that we aren't dealing with an apples-to-apples comparison. That happens for many reasons. One of which is that fundamental accounting changes influence all stocks in...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: I got this!!
Replies: 79
Views: 8984

Re: Retirees: I got this!!

For the 16 months from Nov 2007 until March 2009, our portfolio value dropped by 40%. Fortunately, we recovered a large portion of that drop by year's end, 2009. 80% in stocks is a lot in retirement. You were lucky it bounced back so fast. What if it had taken 5 years to recover instead of 1 year?
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6026

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

We got the 14% growth because of P/E expansion, the speculative return that Mr. Bogle talks about. Stock prices ultimately will reflect actual economic growth and actual corporate earnings growth. Historically, corporate earnings grow probably more like 6% a year on a sustainable basis. Trees do no...
by HomerJ
Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 122
Views: 11492

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

But lets look at your "Catastrophic case" 50% loss, 2% gains for 8 year, and then 10%? That isn't really that bad. Look up japan were we are off by ~33% 28 years later. If that oft-referenced Japanese investor had bought a world market portfolio they would be doing fine. If they had followed the vo...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you project the amount you will have to spend annually in retirement?
Replies: 76
Views: 4116

Re: How do you project the amount of income you will have in retirement?

For those who retire well before SS they may want to spend well beyond 4% before collecting SS so if I want to have level spending for the first 15 years of my retirement 10 years before SS and 5 years after I am not thinking a straight 4% would give me the proper approximation. Kinda why I created...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you project the amount you will have to spend annually in retirement?
Replies: 76
Views: 4116

Re: How do you project the amount of income you will have in retirement?

For those who retire well before SS they may want to spend well beyond 4% before collecting SS so if I want to have level spending for the first 15 years of my retirement 10 years before SS and 5 years after I am not thinking a straight 4% would give me the proper approximation. Kinda why I created...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6026

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

We got the 14% growth because of P/E expansion, the speculative return that Mr. Bogle talks about. Stock prices ultimately will reflect actual economic growth and actual corporate earnings growth. Historically, corporate earnings grow probably more like 6% a year on a sustainable basis. Trees do no...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6026

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

The current dividend yield is 1.95% (Barrons.com). The mean PE10 since 1881 is about 16.8. The current PE10 is about 31.33 (Robert Shiller's website). Shiller reported (in recent interview) that real earnings growth from 1881 until the present is about 1.8% (better than Siegel's reported 1.25%). St...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you project the amount you will have to spend annually in retirement?
Replies: 76
Views: 4116

Re: How do you project the amount you will have to spend annually in retirement?

I run the numbers for 3%, 3.3%, 3.5% and 4% but 3.3% is the number I really put the weight on . While I think I have a very good handle on my basic/mandatory expenses the discretionary seems a lot more nebulous to me. But I really like to understand how much I can expect to be able to spend because...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you project the amount you will have to spend annually in retirement?
Replies: 76
Views: 4116

Re: How do you project the amount of income you will have in retirement?

For those who retire well before SS they may want to spend well beyond 4% before collecting SS so if I want to have level spending for the first 15 years of my retirement 10 years before SS and 5 years after I am not thinking a straight 4% would give me the proper approximation. Kinda why I created...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you project the amount you will have to spend annually in retirement?
Replies: 76
Views: 4116

Re: How do you project the amount you will have to spend annually in retirement?

How do you project the amount of income you will have in retirement? I use what I consider a fairly simple spreadsheet I created and validate the numbers it produces are reasonable using FireCalc and I-ORP. I don't use Firecalc or I-Orp exclusively because I have a couple custom scenarios built it ...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 10X Retirement Rule - - Valid???
Replies: 46
Views: 2937

Re: Fidelity 10X Retirement Rule - - Valid???

It is a perfectly fine rule of thumb, as plenty of empirical research has repeatedly shown. I think the Expenses Brigade always has a knee jerk reaction to this that they don't have for many other topics and I don't understand the religious fervor. If someone saves 10 years of salary by the time th...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 10X Retirement Rule - - Valid???
Replies: 46
Views: 2937

Re: Fidelity 10X Retirement Rule - - Valid???

No, because salary can be meaningless.

Expenses are what matters.

There are bunch of assumptions baked into any "rule" that uses your salary/income, which may not apply to you.

Expenses are the correct metric. You have to replace your SPENDING in retirement, not your income.
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: I got this!!
Replies: 79
Views: 8984

Re: Retirees: I got this!!

2009 retiree here. So 8 years out, divorced since. No debt. Own home. All my savings in retirement tax deferred retirement accounts. IRA, and Roth. New truck. I love being retired. I feel like I got my life back, and feel like a kid again, but without financial worry. You got divorced AFTER retirin...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: I got this!!
Replies: 79
Views: 8984

Re: Retirees: I got this!!

It very much depends on circumstances. I retired in December 1998 at 52 for various reasons. I had some money in the market and some real estate. I was nervous for 13 years about having enough money to stay retired. I experienced just about every bad event and sequencing thing talked about here. I ...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6026

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

According to Rob Arnott's group, Research Affiliates What did they predict in the past? Were they correct? I just did a quick google search and I'm not finding a lot of their old predictions. I did see something where Rob Arnott was part of a group that predicted a lower equity premium going forwar...
by HomerJ
Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When would you take a part-time option?
Replies: 23
Views: 1712

Re: When would you take a part-time option?

I am also fortunate that my job would allow me to go part time. I plan to go part time once we hit 25x annual expenses. What is your job? And yeah, at 25x expenses, I'll probably go part-time too, because that's not dangerous. If I lose the part-time work, no big deal when you have 25x expenses. Yo...
by HomerJ
Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When would you take a part-time option?
Replies: 23
Views: 1712

Re: When would you take a part-time option?

EnjoyIt wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2017 4:35 pm
Nursing in a hospital. Most places are so understaffed a nurse can always find PRN work. Same for radiology tech, ultrasound tech, CT tech.
I stand corrected. It does seem that doctors and nurses and other medical staff are the exception.
by HomerJ
Sat Nov 11, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: I got this!!
Replies: 79
Views: 8984

Re: Retirees: I got this!!

It should be no surprise that recent retirees are exceeding expectations because of very good market performance. No guarantee that the next cohort of retirees will have the same experience so I'm not sure that recent experience will be a useful guide for future retirees. This. Sorry guys... All yo...
by HomerJ
Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When would you take a part-time option?
Replies: 23
Views: 1712

Re: When would you take a part-time option?

For my wife and I, having already arrived at >50x, at age 52 and 58, the only three compelling reasons to keep working (and making money) are 1. The uncertain future for health insurance. 2. The need for a reason to get out of bed in the morning. 3. The strong desire to leave my wife with enough mo...
by HomerJ
Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When would you take a part-time option?
Replies: 23
Views: 1712

Re: When would you take a part-time option?

Recent discussion in threads on making money or not making money and retirement to a "life of leisure" or "working until you are dead" lead me to start this thread. In our situation, both my wife and I have the option to work full time (40hrs / week which typically ends up being much more than that...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why NOT make more money?
Replies: 159
Views: 12491

Re: Why NOT make more money?

We are in early 50s and have achieved financial independence at the comfortable level (4% rule). Many people on this board are very fortunate to hit 25x expenses in their late 40s or early 50s or even mid 50s. Going a little further for some extra luxuries is not a huge sacrifice. But you only get ...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 260
Views: 34948

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

It's also worth noting that Robert Schiller's article that "crystallized" your thinking has to be taken into the context that Robert Schiller has not, and did not, and will not beat the market - just like nearly everyone else. It's also worth noting that Schiller predicted 0% real return for the ne...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Septic tank - deal killer?
Replies: 47
Views: 3987

Septic tank - deal killer?

My daughter is looking at houses, and she found one she really likes, but it's already at the top of her price range ($200,000) I was on-board with the purchase, until I learned this house still has a septic tank. I know we will get it inspected, but I'm worried this could be a huge risk, since it's...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cabo San Lucas - question
Replies: 33
Views: 3336

Re: Cabo San Lucas - question

read about exiting the airport.. that is the one bad part... they have salesmen there, that try to trick you into look at land deals. Don't let anyone help you pull your luggage. When you plan the trip book a shuttle to the resort. Walk straight outside ignoring all the people trying to get your at...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity for winning the game
Replies: 39
Views: 3412

Re: Annuity for winning the game

Nate79 wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:36 pm
I would get a good quality long term care insurance policy.
Is there such a thing?
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 260
Views: 34948

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

I am 50/50 as well.. That way I don't have to guess what's going to happen in the future (and that's what the OP did, guess). If the market goes up, great, 50% of my money is growing. If the market goes down, ah well, at least half my money is safe. Calais.... listen to me for a second. You know tha...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cabo San Lucas - question
Replies: 33
Views: 3336

Re: Cabo San Lucas - question

Cancun and Cabo are not really the same as the rest of Mexico. Those places are so dependent on tourism that every measure is taken to keep people safe. Well, except for the recent tainted alcohol issue. But we're talking millions of people go there every year, and what? 5 people have died from tain...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Interviewing at a former employer, should I give them my current salary when they ask?
Replies: 79
Views: 4281

Re: Interviewing at a former employer, should I give them my current salary when they ask?

I have been asked the current salary question in interviews I have had for positions I was seeking. I always answered honestly, but quickly countered with what my salary expectations were and asked how that fit the salary range of the position. If there is not a good fit, best both parties know so ...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need convincing annuities are investment grade
Replies: 13
Views: 770

Re: Need convincing annuities are investment grade

When I began my career in the early 70's it was common to read about insurance products, particularly variable annuities, that turned out to be a bad investment sold by commission sales people. This is still true today. Since then I have avoided pretty much all investment products offered by banks ...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 284
Views: 19371

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Brakes are in the "unexpected maintenance allowance that I'm well below on average." I figure $500 per year $500 a year? Where did you get that figure? I used the rough cost of a typical non-recurring repair, like replacing the timing belt, or the front or rear shocks. So it's somewhat arbitrary an...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 284
Views: 19371

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

3. Lvl. 3: "Fast Charge" "DC Fast Charge" "Superchargers" are the common names for these chargers. They are a direct shot into the vehicle and bypass the onboard charging equipment. Generally an 80% charge is obtained in 20 to 40mins. Tesla has a bunch of these superchargers all over and DC fast ch...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why make more money?
Replies: 134
Views: 12808

Re: Why make more money?

Didn't Keynes predict that we would all be working 15 hours a week due to productivity gains? Perhaps that is exactly what we are seeing? However, instead of working their entire lives work 1/3rd the hours each week, we are seeing people choosing to work the full 40-45 hours, but do it for only 1/3...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why make more money?
Replies: 134
Views: 12808

Re: Why make more money?

Considering it wasn't that long ago that people worked dusk to dawn to either grow, hunt or gather food and water their entire lives (and in many places I am sure they still do) I can't see where our society has placed an increased burden on us. If I remember correctly when Social Security was orig...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why make more money?
Replies: 134
Views: 12808

Re: Why make more money?

What if the market tanks, are you okay with 30x becoming 15x or 10x and you still stay retired? How comfortable are you then? Health insurance is a big reason for me. I'm not working very hard these days, but I do enough to keep my health insurance. :D Well, one should not be 100% in stocks when th...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 07, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why make more money?
Replies: 134
Views: 12808

Re: Why make more money?

There HAS TO BE a reasonable 'end point.' Be it 30x, 40x, 100x, anything. There has to be an end point. At that point you can work part time, work for less money, whatever. I would almost bet you can never satisfy 100% of 'what if' but you should be able to satisfy, I dunno 90% of what ifs? Be 'rea...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Disposable income... how?
Replies: 106
Views: 9585

Re: Disposable income... how?

That debt is past spending you are still paying for now, and for the foreseeable future, and it is crimping how much you feel you can spend now. This is a good point. Even though it's at 0%, you still spent money in the past that you didn't have yet. And that's why you don't have as much money now....
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Disposable income... how?
Replies: 106
Views: 9585

Re: Disposable income... how?

You're doing great. Stop beating yourself up.

I would suggest dropping back from 33% savings to 30% savings. An extra $3000 a year for fun. Save half your raises from now on, and spend the other half.

In 10-15 years, you're going to realize it was all worth it.
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 284
Views: 19371

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

iamlucky13 wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 10:16 pm
Brakes are in the "unexpected maintenance allowance that I'm well below on average." I figure $500 per year
$500 a year? Where did you get that figure?
by HomerJ
Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why make more money?
Replies: 134
Views: 12808

Re: Why make more money?

jlcnuke wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:45 am
Just because it supports your "current" lifestyle doesn't mean that you want to settle for that lifestyle
I hope your "current" lifestyle makes you happy, and would continue to make you happy in retirement.