Search found 9424 matches

by HomerJ
Thu Feb 23, 2017 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 139
Views: 7436

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I wonder if there is a chart of CAPE-10 based forecasts of US stocks since the beginning of CAPE-10 vs actual returns (nominal or real) so that we can see how well CAPE-10 predictions have turned out so far. Boglesmind I made some charts like that a couple of years ago. I looked at how well the inv...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 23, 2017 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 139
Views: 7436

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Also of course in taxable accounts you get the foreign tax credit for taxes paid, which is why should have preference for international in taxable and domestic in tax advantaged if have option Larry This is NOT quite that simple, Larry. While you get foreign tax credit in taxable account, you also ...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 23, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement savings: Lots of $, job prospects weak
Replies: 36
Views: 3699

Re: Retirement savings: Lots of $, job prospects weak

I don't know if any credible investment advisor recommends 100% equities. Weird advice being given here. Read one or two of the recommended books on the Bogleheads wiki. Charles Ellis recommends 100% equities. Even Vanguard recommends 90% equities for someone the age of the OP. This is crazy. This ...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 23, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 68
Views: 3454

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

My biggest issues here are the broad generalizations. The broad generalizations are true. There are always exceptions to the rule. I doubt very seriously that more than 1% of time-shares in the world have maintenance fees of 1k, but can be rented easily for 4k. Why haven't you bought 50 of these? M...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 23, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 68
Views: 3454

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

My biggest issues here are the broad generalizations. The broad generalizations are true. There are always exceptions to the rule. I doubt very seriously that more than 2% of time-shares in the world have maintenance fees of 1k, but can be rented easily for 4k. Why haven't you bought 50 of these? B...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 23, 2017 1:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 68
Views: 3454

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

My biggest issues here are the broad generalizations. The broad generalizations are true. There are always exceptions to the rule. I doubt very seriously that more than 2% of time-shares in the world have maintenance fees of 1k, but can be rented easily for 4k. Why haven't you bought 50 of these? B...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 23, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 68
Views: 3454

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

My biggest issues here are the broad generalizations. The broad generalizations are true. There are always exceptions to the rule. I doubt very seriously that more than 1% of time-shares in the world have maintenance fees of 1k, but can be rented easily for 4k. Why haven't you bought 50 of these? M...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 23, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 139
Views: 7436

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

"..these seemingly tightly-correlated charts that John presents as evidence for his extremely low predictions are not evidence of the “historical reliability” of those predictions. The charts are demonstrable curve-fits that exploit superficial coincidences in the historical data being analyze...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 23, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 232
Views: 9664

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

Sure that makes sense, but no one even knows if the stock market is a normal distribution. Dropping the mean doesn't necessarily mean the standard distribution end-points will move the same amount. If you admit the distribution may not be normal, if anything this might mean fatter tails, greater un...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 139
Views: 7436

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Hi all, I seems you are not reading the data right. One said July 2010 cape said 4% returns but it has been 14. Actually, if you look at the data I keep posting - the data forecasts the NEXT 10 year AVERAGE annual return. The model in July 2010 showed any new money invested then would return somewh...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 23, 2017 12:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 232
Views: 9664

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

Sorry, I don't understand what you are saying... A 6% or 7% bag is plenty... We don't need the 9% or 10% bag to repeat. When the 9% or 10% bag was working, you could pull 6% or 7% a year... When you start with a 4% withdrawal, you'll be just fine if the 21st century is "only" pulling from...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 232
Views: 9664

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

I mean, I get it, there are some people on this forum who talk like they're Scrooge McDuck and don't want to spend anything. And I've argued against perceived conservative attitudes too. I just don't think it's prudent to advise a soon-to-be retiree that they can assume stocks will return 10% real ...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 232
Views: 9664

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

Here you go... As a preview of the findings, we estimate that a 40% stock allocation and a 30-year planning horizon would support a 2.1% sustainable initial spending rate, provided one is willing to accept a 10% chance for failure [with a volatile investment portfolio, there is no such thing as a g...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 232
Views: 9664

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

I sure wish one of the 2.X% people would come out of the woodwork, I mean everything I've seen from the likes of Wade Pfau et al doesn't go any lower than 3%, and I'm even saying 3% on the lowest end based on risk tolerance... In "Low Bond Yields and Safe Portfolio Withdrawal Rates" Finke...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 232
Views: 9664

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

I mean, I get it, there are some people on this forum who talk like they're Scrooge McDuck and don't want to spend anything. And I've argued against perceived conservative attitudes too. I just don't think it's prudent to advise a soon-to-be retiree that they can assume stocks will return 10% real ...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 232
Views: 9664

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

Another issue is that there is a price to be paid for pessimism in this matter in the form of saving more and/or delaying retirement longer than potentially necessary or realistic. Seems like a good number of people here hit 25x expenses at 50, so working an extra 5 years for some extra safety is n...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 232
Views: 9664

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

I'm seeing a rather interesting and disquieting trend on BH where people think that a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate is somehow aggressive. But the last 140 years of data do not support this mentality. On average, a retiree could actually have a 6.5% plus CPI WR and never run out of money. However, we...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 22, 2017 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 68
Views: 3454

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

Are these good to attend for "free" tickets to shows and to buy or are they ripoffs? Never ever buy one. But for free stuff, sometimes it's worth going to the presentation. If you get two free tickets to a high-priced show in Vegas, maybe worthwhile to sit through 2 boring hours. It will ...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 22, 2017 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 68
Views: 3454

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

We consider the value very reasonable for the annual maintenance and trade fees. How much have they gone up over 15 years? My wife owned a timeshare before I met her, and within 10 years, the annual fees steadily increased until they cost more than just renting a place for a week. And of course, th...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 139
Views: 7436

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

FWIW, in January 2000 the CAPE 10 was forecasting a real return to US stocks of 2.3%, it has been 3%. I'd say that was a very good prediction. Larry FYI, in June 2010, the CAPE 10 was forecasting a real return to US stocks of 4.5%, it has been 14% nominal (so that's what? 12%-13% real?). I'd say th...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 22, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Getting the snip: Should it be me or my partner?
Replies: 13
Views: 1408

Re: Getting the snip: Should it be me or my partner?

sunny_socal wrote:IBTL!

Between man/woman, I would vote man. It's cheap, quick and easy. Leave work early on a Friday, have it done, have your partner drive you home, be back at work on Monday.


And you get a ton of sympathy all weekend long. :)
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 21, 2017 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 139
Views: 7436

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

lack_ey wrote:CAPE is a statistic*, not a model.


I stand corrected, thank you.

Your problem is presumably with some models using CAPE to forecast future returns


Yes.
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 21, 2017 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 139
Views: 7436

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

All I know is... If you have a model (CAPE) that was built on 70 years of data, and then for the next 25 years straight the data doesn't match the model, I don't think it's unreasonable to wonder if the model is no longer accurate. If maybe, just maybe, there are more variables involved that weren'...
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 21, 2017 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 139
Views: 7436

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

All I know is... If you have a model (CAPE) that was built on 70 years of data, and then for the next 25 years straight the data doesn't match the model, I don't think it's unreasonable to wonder if the model is no longer accurate. If maybe, just maybe, there are more variables involved that weren't...
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 21, 2017 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why do you go to restaurants?
Replies: 229
Views: 14687

Re: Why do you go to restaurants?

Restaurant style steak: Cast iron skillet. Season with kosher salt and fresh ground black pepper, sear the meat in some high quality oil 1-2 minutes on each side. Put cast iron skillet with steak in it in the oven at 425 for another 2-3 minutes. Remove from oven, put a dab of butter on the steak. D...
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 21, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 139
Views: 7436

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I have a hard time understanding these types of posts. The reason you set an AA and a glide path is to manage risk. As you get older you're going to be more conservative. Anyone closing in on retirement by definition will already have a more conservative AA. And the reason you rebalance is to "...
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 21, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 139
Views: 7436

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I don't follow Hussman's funds which have to compete with a benchmark, so they don't reflect his actual holdings. My point is I DID participate in the 8 year bull with 60% stocks...and last month decided I've made enough money staying the course that it was time to take some off the table. All you ...
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 21, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?
Replies: 131
Views: 6272

Re: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?

I don't know why people insist so strongly on 20% bonds, though, based on some notion of bear market performance and maybe a rebalancing bonus, implying that the expected return differential with 100% stocks is minuscule or even negative. That's not how it works over most periods of time—if the fut...
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?
Replies: 131
Views: 6272

Re: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?

The personal spreadsheets I have run all use very low SWR (way below 1% because I am a cautious person) so maybe that is different. That makes all the difference in the world. At less that 1% withdrawal rate you don't need to worry about sequence of return risk. But most people are nowhere near tha...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 20, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?
Replies: 131
Views: 6272

Re: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?

The part I find puzzling is this discussion of "sequence of returns risk". People assume that at the worst time, suddenly stocks will lose 50% and stay there. So apparently it is unwise to sell stocks during the downturn for living expenses and somehow a small portion of bonds will carry ...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 20, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?
Replies: 131
Views: 6272

Re: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?

One last point, the assumption that bonds are no use if equities have lost massively is false. That sounds more like a excuse for people who want to load up on 100% equities when market are in a frenzy, just like reccently. In most scenarios, safe bonds protect against downside from massive equity ...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 20, 2017 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?
Replies: 131
Views: 6272

Re: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?

If you have an adequate standalone EF Ding! Ding! Ding! We disagree on "adequate". You think all market crashes will be followed by a quick recovery, and I think it's possible for a market crash to take multiple years to recover. Since the Great Depression actually did happen, I think it ...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 20, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?
Replies: 131
Views: 6272

Re: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?

You're missing the point. Unless there is a total financial collapse, your equities aren't going down in value by 100%. They could certainly lose the majority of their value, but they aren't going to zero. An in the even of a major financial collapse, bonds aren't a panacea. Many other countries ar...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 20, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Once having achieved 30X -- share your strategy?
Replies: 42
Views: 3959

Re: Once having achieved 30X -- share your strategy?

My plan is to have a 5-year CD ladder, with the rest split 50/50 Total Stock Market/Total Bond Market So say I am pulling $60,000 a year from my investments... I'll have five $60,000 CDs. As one matures, I'll use that money for expenses that year, and buy another $60,000 5-year CD pulling the money ...
by HomerJ
Sat Feb 18, 2017 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "With $15 Left in the Bank, a Baby Boomer Makes Peace With Less" -- A cautionary tale
Replies: 37
Views: 4491

Re: "With $15 Left in the Bank, a Baby Boomer Makes Peace With Less" -- A cautionary tale

This person made many mistakes, but at least she eventually analyzed her situation and implemented a realistic plan. I think that is an important lesson. Run the numbers and trust the math. There really aren't magical solutions to these problems. I have a friend in his mid-60s who has been intermit...
by HomerJ
Fri Feb 17, 2017 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stock Market Fears
Replies: 55
Views: 5571

Re: Stock Market Fears

Because we have maxed out our 401k and Roth accounts for several years, we are currently living on close to the same amount of income we will have when my husband retires. As far as I can tell, we will need to withdraw from our IRAs only if we need a new car, have unexpected medical expenses, etc. ...
by HomerJ
Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who would quit playing if they already won?
Replies: 106
Views: 10293

Re: Who would quit playing if they already won?

Looked at an annuity calculator again: If my living expenses are 2% of my portfolio. I would have to give up about 35% of my portfolio to cover my expenses in an annuity. Seeing that decline in the portfolio is what always throws me down the steps. Then a 35% decline in the market is not unheard of...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 15, 2017 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stock Market Fears
Replies: 55
Views: 5571

Re: Stock Market Fears

Happy2BeFree, What is a "low marginal utility of wealth"? What it means is that MORE wealth might have a small effect on your lives. But losing wealth could have a big impact. So it's not as important to take risk in order to get big returns. You don't need big returns. Preserving your mo...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stock Market Fears
Replies: 55
Views: 5571

Re: Stock Market Fears

So you are 50/50 stocks/bonds right now? There's probably nothing wrong with going down to 30/70 stocks/bonds (or CDs) if that will help you sleep at night. It is indeed a good idea to lower risk at the start of retirement, because a big crash right when you start pulling money out can indeed cause ...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 15, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving 20% into cash
Replies: 32
Views: 2695

Re: Moving 20% into cash

If I was 80/20 months ago, I will still end with 4% gain. But 100% AA is making me nervous. 80% is still a lot heavy tilt toward to equity. 60/40 is much more balanced I believe. But human are greedy. 60% seems never enough than 100%. If this is a permanent change to 80/20 AA, then I wouldn't call ...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 15, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire in my 30s?!
Replies: 34
Views: 5424

Re: Retire in my 30s?!

Everyone who is running their own business is "retired"?

The word is slowly losing all meaning.
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who would quit playing if they already won?
Replies: 106
Views: 10293

Re: Who would quit playing if they already won?

If you win the game by enough, can't you keep playing without still risking a loss? Yes, that's my point... If you've just barely won (and you're close to retirement), you may not be able risk a huge loss, so why keep money at risk? If you've won the game 2x-4x, you've now won so much, a big loss w...
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Putting 1 million to work short term (3-4 years))
Replies: 14
Views: 2418

Re: Putting 1 million to work short term (3-4 years))

patrick013 wrote:A 100% investment in the S&P 500 should have a good return


This is not the best advice. Short-term money should not be 100% in the market.
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who would quit playing if they already won?
Replies: 106
Views: 10293

Re: Who would quit playing if they already won?

If you win the game by enough, can't you keep playing without still risking a loss? Yes, that's my point... If you've just barely won (and you're close to retirement), you may not be able risk a huge loss, so why keep money at risk? If you've won the game 2x-4x, you've now won so much, a big loss w...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who would quit playing if they already won?
Replies: 106
Views: 10293

Re: Who would quit playing if they already won?

I live a extremely good lifestyle on a 2% withdraw rate without SS. Well, for many of us, we didn't wake up one morning and realize we were sitting on 2% withdrawal rate without SS. You can do whatever you want, and not worry about running out of money. You've got so much, it doesn't matter how you...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 13, 2017 2:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is 130k a good salary in IT?.
Replies: 40
Views: 5375

Re: Is 130k a good salary in IT?.

His salary is pretty good for Atlanta.
by HomerJ
Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why do you go to restaurants?
Replies: 229
Views: 14687

Re: Why do you go to restaurants?

Yesterday was my wife's birthday and we went to OUTBACK steak house with our younger son. We ordered steaks and lobsters and paid about $78. The steaks were over-cooked and were not as good as what my wife cooked at home. I'm guessing your wife didn't really want to cook you a steak on HER birthday...
by HomerJ
Sat Feb 11, 2017 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 328
Views: 17633

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

A layoff in your 50s does not necessarily force you into retirement. I've seen many such people retool and go back into the workforce. Just curious. Retool and get a comparable paying job? Or even 75% pay? Can you give some examples? Do you really know many people in their 50s who have gone through...
by HomerJ
Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Convince Wife for Honda Odyssey
Replies: 48
Views: 2631

Re: Convince Wife for Honda Odyssey

Minivan is far more roomy and comfortable.

Get the captains chairs in the row behind the driver.

We drove from Kansas to Florida (and back) once and the kids could lean back their captain's chairs and nap.
by HomerJ
Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 328
Views: 17633

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

Your scenario could easily play out for many, and if that's the way that an investor would believe him/herself to think and act in such a situation, then 80/20 is probably great for them. But many, many investors would still panic sell in that scenario as well. But probably less than if all those 8...

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