Search found 9815 matches

by HomerJ
Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Books not to read.
Replies: 104
Views: 6422

Re: Books not to read.

People at work ask me why I hardly ever go out to eat, instead eating PB&J at my desk. They say "We know you have money, because we know you have a lake house and a boat". And I reply, "I have a lake house and a boat BECAUSE I don't go out to eat every day. And besides, I like PB...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Books not to read.
Replies: 104
Views: 6422

Re: Books not to read.

The book is poorly written. True. The people profiled in the book are uninspiring. I found the case studies comparing the two doctors and the two brothers (one a lawyer, one a teacher) to be very interesting. I also found the stories about supporting one's kids too much to be interesting. The theme...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Books not to read.
Replies: 104
Views: 6422

Re: Books not to read.

But what would be the point in living one's entire life frugally, unless we simply consider ourselves as machines for creating wealth to be transmitted to heirs ? What's wrong with having enough? You think the point of life is to spend every cent you have, and that will make you happier? Concerning...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?
Replies: 136
Views: 11179

Re: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?

Maybe I am overthinking all this, but I do feel if there is a crash like we had in 2008/09 again or even something less bad, it will not be a fast hockey stick recovery like we had the last time. You should ALWAYS plan for a crash happening tomorrow that takes 2-10 years to recover. Because it coul...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can my wife and I afford to retire in one year with our portfolio, pension, social security
Replies: 41
Views: 3593

Re: Can my wife and I afford to retire in one year with our portfolio, pension, social security

A great way to tell if you are ready to live on basically $60,000 a year is to take this next year and live on $60,000. It is the perfect way to tell if that type of budget will work for you, and the extra benefit of being able to use the extra saved income for investments or padding your emergency...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can my wife and I afford to retire in one year with our portfolio, pension, social security
Replies: 41
Views: 3593

Re: Can my wife and I afford to retire in one year with our portfolio, pension, social security

I find it interesting that so many have noted your expenses seem low compared to your income. I imagine that is how you managed to have a portfolio of over $2M. OnTrack2020, If OP had been living on 45K per year, the portfolio would be a lot larger. At least 2 times if not more. The gross income is...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can my wife and I afford to retire in one year with our portfolio, pension, social security
Replies: 41
Views: 3593

Re: Can my wife and I afford to retire in one year with our portfolio, pension, social security

soccerfan25 wrote:My wife and I would like to retire from full-time work in one year's time if possible.


Why wait?

The math is way too easy here. Of course you can retire.
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What advice to give 21 year old?
Replies: 94
Views: 4516

Re: What advice to give 21 year old?

The most important thing to tell him is to save a good chunk starting out, save half his raises, and control lifestyle creep. Most of us build up to $150k-$250k over many years. Starting out that high, it will be tempting to start living an expensive lifestyle right away. Sure, if he grows to $500k ...
by HomerJ
Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 117
Views: 8072

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

grap0013 wrote:You're not gonna lose your shirt on this one IMO.


You going to cover my losses, if I do?
by HomerJ
Fri Jul 07, 2017 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: For retirement at 55 what is a good multiplier?
Replies: 43
Views: 4872

Re: For retirement at 55 what is a good multiplier?

I included a guesstimate of health care, which is why I pushed from 50X current lifestyle expenses to 62.5X. You're just doing it opposite from the rest of us. We say one needs 25x to 30x expenses. Expenses INCLUDE health care. So I might say I need $50k a year without health care so a guestimate f...
by HomerJ
Fri Jul 07, 2017 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: For retirement at 55 what is a good multiplier?
Replies: 43
Views: 4872

Re: For retirement at 55 what is a good multiplier?

I included a guesstimate of health care, which is why I pushed from 50X current lifestyle expenses to 62.5X. You're just doing it opposite from the rest of us. We say one needs 25x to 30x expenses. Expenses INCLUDE health care. So I might say I need $50k a year without health care so a guestimate f...
by HomerJ
Fri Jul 07, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: For retirement at 55 what is a good multiplier?
Replies: 43
Views: 4872

Re: For retirement at 55 what is a good multiplier?

I am almost there...I originally shot for 50X but after reflection went with 62.5X...I should hit it this year... : ) I increased it because of the uncertainty of healthcare... This is a good thing? Was this achieved to due to insane returns, generous pension, frugal lifestyle or very high compensa...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 06, 2017 9:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is a Normal Spending Percentage of Take-Home Pay?
Replies: 29
Views: 2390

Re: What is a Normal Spending Percentage of Take-Home Pay?

This sounds suspiciously like a humble brag. Including savings?!? Including savings, you only "spend" 37% of your take home pay? Either you're not saving enough, or you have a huge income. Why wouldn't you save most of that left-over 63%? If you spend it, even on frivolous stuff that's not...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 45yo 18M portfolio, best way to grow?
Replies: 47
Views: 6421

Re: 45yo 18M portfolio, best way to grow?

Michread wrote:WOW! Please share with us how you got there. We would like to learn from YOU. :shock:


Heh, paraphrasing Steve Martin on how to become a millionaire.

First, get a job that pays a million dollars a year.

Income is about 1.2M/year gross
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: For retirement at 55 what is a good multiplier?
Replies: 43
Views: 4872

Re: For retirement at 55 what is a good multiplier?

Expenses AFTER pension If you think you need $70k a year, and your pension will give you $30k a year, then you only need to generate $40k a year from investments. 25x-30x $40k is $1 million - $1.2 million Thing is, at 31, with kids, it's hard to get an idea of what your expenses will be in 24 years ...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 05, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I still buy index funds now at such a high price before an impending recession?
Replies: 59
Views: 7720

Re: Should I still buy index funds now at such a high price before an impending recession?

Hey everyone, I would like your advice on the following questions. I think a recession will occur in the near future. Should I still buy index funds now at such a high price before an impending recession? I would sell your crystal ball for a billion gajillion dollars! Just joking. No one knows if a...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 05, 2017 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 218
Views: 28993

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

When people say things like "25x investable assets" is that before tax or after tax? The tax on standard IRA withdrawls could be considerable in high tax states. Do I count them at 65% of their value for this purpose? You won't pay 35% effective tax on your IRA withdrawals. Unless you're ...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 05, 2017 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 218
Views: 28993

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

1980s 11.3% annual real return with dividends reinvested before any expenses or taxes. 1990s 14.1% annual real return with dividends reinvested before any expenses or taxes. One decade of returns like that would leave me set for life, let alone 2 decades! But I don't think I will see any decades li...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 05, 2017 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 218
Views: 28993

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

$10mm is my goal as that allows me to have a conservative 3% retirement withdrawal at my current base salary ($300k a year). Just FYI, you don't need to replace your current salary to live the same lifestyle in retirement. Your current expenses are far less than $300k, because you obviously must be...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 05, 2017 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 218
Views: 28993

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

afan wrote:If you enter the home at 70 and figure 100 as a maximum plausible lifespan for someone who spent 30 years in a nursing home


Nobody lives 30 years in a nursing home. And especially not if they start out at 70 with the highest cost for 24/7 round the clock care.
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we/should we afford a $2M house?
Replies: 93
Views: 12137

Re: Can we/should we afford a $2M house?

The current rental is just not an option as it very small and, with the baby stuff, getting very crowded. In terms of saving or spending, I have not sat down and done the math, but saving about $40k/month? I would guess. I realize the expenses/year will increase, but, on the flip side, there is the...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 03, 2017 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Annuities A Worthwhile Retirement Investment?
Replies: 52
Views: 4999

Re: Are Annuities A Worthwhile Retirement Investment?

The monthly amount you can get with an annuity depends on whether there is a single or joint annuitant, the prevailing interest rate, and the ages of the annuitants upon purchase. As I recall, Homer figured this for a 65 year old single man. Yes, lots of variables. I just went to https://www.immedi...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 03, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need help progressing in life after a massive setback
Replies: 31
Views: 5150

Re: Need help progressing in life after a massive setback

I work in the Tech industry now and I do really like the company, the position, compensation and everything else as far as a job goes, but I also have that craving to gain some more knowledge and potentially add a few letters to my name/differentiate myself from the hordes of people who graduate wi...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 03, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need help progressing in life after a massive setback
Replies: 31
Views: 5150

Re: Need help progressing in life after a massive setback

You are in your mid-20s, so really, what you think of as a "massive setback" is just fairly normal. Most of us do not go through life with uninterrupted success. I didn't even start my current career until I was 27 or so. I switched from engineering to IT. Started over from scratch basica...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 03, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Annuities A Worthwhile Retirement Investment?
Replies: 52
Views: 4999

Re: Are Annuities A Worthwhile Retirement Investment?

If one has maxed out all other available tax-deferred accounts and needs additional tax-deferred space, then a low-cost variable annuity such as that offered by Vanguard is a perfectly reasonable alternative to explore. The key here is "maxed" with what and "needs" not wants . F...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 03, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Annuities A Worthwhile Retirement Investment?
Replies: 52
Views: 4999

Re: Are Annuities A Worthwhile Retirement Investment?

The advantage of the annuity? You will have a guaranteed monthly flow of income for life This describes a SPIA (single payment - immediate annuity), which many of us here agree can be a good product. Almost every other annuity will siphon of much of one's wealth with fees. The OP's title seems to i...
by HomerJ
Sun Jul 02, 2017 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Annuities A Worthwhile Retirement Investment?
Replies: 52
Views: 4999

Re: Are Annuities A Worthwhile Retirement Investment?

billfromct wrote:I wouldn't buy a variable annuity now except for my grandchildren if my kids ever get married & have children.


Why would you waste your money like that? Wouldn't you rather give your grandchildren twice as much money?
by HomerJ
Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Annuities A Worthwhile Retirement Investment?
Replies: 52
Views: 4999

Re: Are Annuities A Worthwhile Retirement Investment?

livesoft wrote:In some sense, Social Security is an annuity.


Why did you post this as the first response to a fairly new person?
by HomerJ
Sat Jul 01, 2017 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about lending money to parents to make money - Good or bad idea?
Replies: 34
Views: 1269

Re: Thinking about lending money to parents to make money - Good or bad idea?

Usually when people enter into this kind of arrangement, the interest rate is such that it is significantly lower than what the borrowers are currently paying and significantly higher than what the borrower can earn in a risk-free savings vehicle. This. For instance, you could offer to loan them en...
by HomerJ
Sat Jul 01, 2017 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What may have led to the US stock sell-off on 6-30-17 at 3:50-4:00 p.m.?
Replies: 50
Views: 5022

Re: What may have led to the US stock sell-off on 6-30-17 at 3:50-4:00 p.m.?

S17C wrote:No harm in learning.


Wisdom is knowing what you don't know (and what you CAN'T know).

The last thing you want is to THINK you actually understand exactly what caused the stock market to go up or down in any ten minute period.
by HomerJ
Thu Jun 29, 2017 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How did you handle the costs of your child's wedding?
Replies: 170
Views: 11710

Re: How did you handle the costs of your child's wedding?

The immigrant/ethnic circle that I am part of, the weddings are $100K-$250K multi-day extravaganza mostly paid by bride's family. I suspect the driving factors are the parents of the bride and the groom. This is *after* paying 100% of the undergraduate and graduate and law/medicine school for their...
by HomerJ
Thu Jun 29, 2017 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 9762

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

Who cares what we call it? Let them call it market timing if they wish. Look guys. If you want to change your AA based on valuations, be my guest. It may indeed be the smart thing to do. But quit making up terms. You are not buying and holding if you change your AA back and forth based on valuation...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 9762

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

or whether their stock/bond ratio will be the same when E/P is 7% and a 10-year TIPS yields 2% as when a 10-year TIPS yields 4% and E/P is 3%, well then, okay, but I don't see this as rational behavior. I guarantee you many people on this board and in this world retired just fine without ever calcu...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 28, 2017 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 9762

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

Who cares what we call it? Let them call it market timing if they wish. Look guys. If you want to change your AA based on valuations, be my guest. It may indeed be the smart thing to do. But quit making up terms. You are not buying and holding if you change your AA back and forth based on valuation...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 28, 2017 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 9762

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

There's a diference between market timing for its own sake and looking at one's personal financial circumstance and deciding on an AA change because of where one is relative to their goals. These decisions necessarily depend on current valuations. Price appreciation gets us closer to our goals, inc...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How did you handle the costs of your child's wedding?
Replies: 170
Views: 11710

Re: How did you handle the costs of your child's wedding?

Ok, $19.3K if you count the $300 to replace the wedding band I lost scuba diving in Cancun (to-date, that remains the most expensive dive I have ever done :oops: ) Heh, I lost my first wedding ring on our honeymoon snorkeling in Hawaii too... Lost two more before my wife gave up on me (Well, she ga...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 28, 2017 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 9762

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

Do you think we should follow their advice today and go 0% stocks for the next ten years? Even though there is no way to prove or disprove their model? It doesn't mean you should be at 100% stocks either. I think it is fairly obvious that valuations matter. The problem with this forum is that whene...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 28, 2017 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 9762

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

What did they recommend 2 years ago? 5 years ago? 10 years ago? What actually ends up happening in the next few years doesn't prove someone right, or someone else wrong. It's all about probabilities. You are correct. RA made some predictions 5 years ago that have turned out wrong, but that doesn't ...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 28, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 9762

Re: CAPE Ratios?

Those counting on a 60/40 portfolio to generate 8.7% annual and planning accordingly are not sailing on the HMS Vanguard, but likely on the USS Fitzgerald! I think most Bogleheads are pretty conservative. I doubt most people here are counting and planning on 8.7% nominal returns. I think, like me, ...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 28, 2017 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 9762

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

1. Research affiliates: 0.5% real. Not to split hairs, but I said "0%". RA, for the record, recommends 0% allocation to US stocks, regardless of the risk level of your portfolio (feel free to confirm by viewing their recommended portfolio at varying risk levels). What did they recommend 2...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 28, 2017 1:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How did you handle the costs of your child's wedding?
Replies: 170
Views: 11710

Re: How did you handle the costs of your child's wedding?

I will pay for it out of my checking account. I will offer a set amount, and whatever they don't spend they can keep.

Don't overthink this. Between engagement and the actual wedding, you should be able to set aside enough money to pay for it. If not, you're paying too much.
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 28, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 9762

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

Those who understand probability will draw the correct conclusion. The correct conclusion, in my opinion, is that 4.5% plus or minus 8% is basically the same thing as "No one knows enough to predict anything accurately" We don't even know if we're talking about a normal distribution here....
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 28, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 9762

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

There are too many variables. I imagine Shiller didn't realize that in 2006 we would be in the middle of a massive speculative bubble propped up by fraud and other illegal activity. Is his model worth discarding because of this failure? Draw your own conclusion. Oh, the excuse is that something hap...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Annuity VS cash
Replies: 16
Views: 1309

Re: Annuity VS cash

As I expected, though, there's really no question that the annuity is a better dollar value than the lump sum. Nisi, you compared payments at 55 to payments at 65. Not apples to apples. If he took the $44,000 today, and invested it for 10 years, it would likely be worth more at 65, and he might get...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 9762

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

I found 3 different sites that use CAPE valuation to estimate future return of US stock, and those estimates range from 0% to -1.4% real. Shiller himself (the guy who INVENTED CAPE) predicted 0% 10-year real return based on CAPE in 1996. Instead we got like 6% real over the next 10 years. Swedroe a...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illinois: A slow swimming black swan?
Replies: 32
Views: 4644

Re: Illinois: A slow swimming black swan?

F150HD wrote:Read the Illinois Lottery is suspending all Powerball and Mega Millions sales in the state because of the ongoing budget crisis.

_


Why? I thought those MADE money for the state?
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Annuity VS cash
Replies: 16
Views: 1309

Re: Annuity VS cash

As I expected, though, there's really no question that the annuity is a better dollar value than the lump sum. Nisi, you compared payments at 55 to payments at 65. Not apples to apples. If he took the $44,000 today, and invested it for 10 years, it would likely be worth more at 65, and he might get...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 27, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3588
Views: 943866

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Uncle Pennybags wrote:I'm having a personal free-fall. VZ is down 18% YTD; it was 15% of my portfolio. :(
Personal free-falls may be the only ones we have for awhile.
Anyone else want to share? :mrgreen:


Why is one stock (Verizon?) 15% of your portfolio?
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 27, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stop saving and start spending
Replies: 67
Views: 9240

Re: Stop saving and start spending

How much are property taxes on a $1.2 million property? $20k?
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 27, 2017 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stop saving and start spending
Replies: 67
Views: 9240

Re: Stop saving and start spending

Funny side note, thought of Brewsters Millions. You want to start spending 125k more a year doubling what you spend today... I can't imagine what I would spend 125k more on in a year if I weren't adding to my assets (or buying more investments or real estate (probably because I'm so frugal heh not ...

Go to advanced search