Search found 92 matches

by GaryA505
Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 3112

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

http://i68.tinypic.com/richew.jpg Now, I'm not a financial genius, but what I see is not much positive correlation from about 1986 until 1996. Then, 3 sustained run-ups of several years each, the first two of these ending in major downward "corrections". Also, in the first and last run-up...
by GaryA505
Thu Jul 20, 2017 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 3112

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

It looks like the only two significant time periods where ex-US stock outperformed US stock were in 1986-90 and 2003-08. Maybe we're about due for another one, or maybe not.
by GaryA505
Thu Jul 20, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 3112

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

You don't NEED international stock. You also don't NEED stocks that start with the letter 'n'. But why would you exclude them? Has there ever been a time that international out performed the us markets? Yes, often: https://www.hartfordfunds.com/content/thf/en/insights/client-conversations/Investing...
by GaryA505
Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 3112

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

Thesaints wrote:The convincing argument has little to do with past performance and a lot more with observed and forecasted markets decorrelation.


But haven't the US and ex-US stock markets been becoming more correlated due to globalization, and if so, why would we have a reason to think this trend will stop?
by GaryA505
Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 3112

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

Why does the bogleheads wiki contain example portfolios that are mostly much less than 50/50: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio In fact, the 5 shown on this page are 25%, 25%, 50%, 20% and 20%. I know some of you will say that they're just examples, but why are 4 out of the 5 of t...
by GaryA505
Thu Jul 20, 2017 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 3112

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

My own convictions are that the "conventional wisdom" consensus among authorities I trust is so overwhelmingly in favor of holding some international that I do not and would not feel comfortable holding none at all; and my own explorations have failed to convince me that there is anything...
by GaryA505
Thu Jul 20, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 3112

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

I went back and re-read the previous thread started by Taylor Larimore. The first time I read it I was totally clueless, now I'm only about 80% clueless, so I'd say that's progress. viewtopic.php?t=196956 Anyway, thanks for all the replies. It would be great to get at least a loose consensus, but I ...
by GaryA505
Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 3112

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

The only free lunch in investing is diversification. Adding international adds diversification. Other than that, it's your money so invest it anyway you like. None of us are here to try to convince you of anything. Is all diversification good? If that was true, wouldn't we all own REITs and commodi...
by GaryA505
Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 3112

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

No one knows nothing. Jack Bogle said this right? I would think this is true for international. Just buy everything with Vanguard Total World Index for the long haul. There are compelling arguments on both sides. This will drive you nuts to no end. Stick with simplicity and diversification. I'm alr...
by GaryA505
Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 3112

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

If you're not convinced either way that sounds like a good case to be a passive investor. Right now a passive investor would hold about 47% international, but this could vary going forward. This hints at part of the reason for my original question. We seem to be "all over the map" on this...
by GaryA505
Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 3112

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

You will need it over the next thirty years if US stocks tread water or decline and/or the US dollar enters a long decline, but you won't know whether this has happened for approximately thirty years. Exactly. And why do experts think this is any more likely than the opposite? I'd say either one is...
by GaryA505
Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 3112

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

Thirty years is, in fact, not a lot of history. Diversification is the one free lunch of investing. I wouldn't want to pick a hot sector that outperformed, either. So, I buy the world. But this assumes that all businesses in the world are equivalent as far as productivity, efficiency, and profitabi...
by GaryA505
Thu Jul 20, 2017 1:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 3112

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

You will need it over the next thirty years if US stocks tread water or decline and/or the US dollar enters a long decline, but you won't know whether this has happened for approximately thirty years. Exactly. And why do experts think this is any more likely than the opposite? I'd say either one is...
by GaryA505
Thu Jul 20, 2017 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 3112

Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

I know there's a lot of debate here about whether international stock is really needed in a portfolio. I've read a lot of it and I still don't know what I think. Looking at the last 30 years, except for a few short periods, international stocks would have just been a drag on overall portfolio return...
by GaryA505
Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options
Replies: 44
Views: 1776

Re: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options

Thinking on this a bit more, especially regarding the role of bonds (or bond-like investments) in an AA, I recall that some investors (Michael Kitces for one) like to talk about "human capital" as a bond-like asset for those still working. This of course assumes that you are still working ...
by GaryA505
Mon Jul 17, 2017 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options
Replies: 44
Views: 1776

Re: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options

Salty - Thanks for all the info. I'm going to (as my master's thesis advisor put it) "mull it over" for a while.
by GaryA505
Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options
Replies: 44
Views: 1776

Re: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options

As this discussion progressed, a question occurred to me. If we don't think past performance of a fund (or asset class) is a good predictor of future performance, why would we think past risk is a good predictor of future risk? And, if we really can't predict future risk, than how can we choose stoc...
by GaryA505
Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options
Replies: 44
Views: 1776

Re: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options

This is sort of what I was getting at in my previous post. By selecting between VBMFX or VBIIX (or in my vase FSITX or a Fid. Corp Bond), we are already making a risk-based selection, so why stop there? Some don't. Some use high-yield (junk) bonds as part of their bond portfolio. If you're going to...
by GaryA505
Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options
Replies: 44
Views: 1776

Re: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options

Are there any other choices that might work for a 3-fund portfolio? What are the trade-offs? There's lots of options that work. The main considerations are how much credit risk and term risk you want to take, as well as expenses. More corporate bonds = more credit risk. Longer-duration fund = more ...
by GaryA505
Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options
Replies: 44
Views: 1776

Re: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options

Now that is a great: Stocks let us eat well. Bonds let us sleep well. Awesome never heard that one. Don't go too far with it. When times are tough, it's the bonds that may let you eat at all. And you'd do well to have a nightmare over bonds every now and then, too, particularly when the safest issu...
by GaryA505
Mon Jul 17, 2017 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options
Replies: 44
Views: 1776

Re: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options

I decided that Total Bond Market Index Fund is nearly ideal for inclusion in The Three-Fund Portfolio for two primary reasons: 1. It is very diversified (often called the only free-lunch in investing). 2. It is very safe. It's worst annual loss since inception was -2.66%. In the 2008 bear market (w...
by GaryA505
Mon Jul 17, 2017 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options
Replies: 44
Views: 1776

Re: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options

I guess if I had understood the role of the bonds in a bogle 3-fund portfolio better, I might have been able to answer my own question. I did find some info on this and now understand it a little better. This is what is think I've read. Please tell me if I'm wrong. Bonds are not in a bogle 3-fund p...
by GaryA505
Mon Jul 17, 2017 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options
Replies: 44
Views: 1776

Re: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options

I guess if I had understood the role of the bonds in a bogle 3-fund portfolio better, I might have been able to answer my own question. I did find some info on this and now understand it a little better. This is what is think I've read. Please tell me if I'm wrong. Bonds are not in a bogle 3-fund po...
by GaryA505
Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options
Replies: 44
Views: 1776

Re: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options

Ok, I think it would be FSITX or AGG then. Maybe BND but I think Fidelity would charge me for that.
by GaryA505
Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options
Replies: 44
Views: 1776

Re: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options

If I use a total return bond fund like PONDX what have I done to the balance? As I mentioned, I don't mind the extra risk, since it was only down -5.79% in 2008 anyway. GaryA505: In the 2008 Bear Market when stocks were down nearly 50%, When investors needed bond protection PONDX was also down -5.7...
by GaryA505
Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options
Replies: 44
Views: 1776

Re: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options

Unless somebody tells me it's a bad idea, I would just use Pimco Total Return (PONDX). PONDX is Class D of Pimco Income, not Pimco Total Return; Class D of Pimco Total Return is PTTDX. These are vey different funds. Look at some charts on M*. To my eye, PONDX has a hefty dose of equity-correlated r...
by GaryA505
Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options
Replies: 44
Views: 1776

Re: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options

Looking at the returns of pondx, I can only assume it is much riskier than a "normal" bond fund and might not play the role bond funds are designed to have in your portfolio. It has a high expense ratio and uses hedging and who knows what else to achieve its returns. Bond funds That I fee...
by GaryA505
Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options
Replies: 44
Views: 1776

Re: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options

Um, I mistyped earlier. This 3-fund port will be in an IRA at Fidelity, so the stock will be in their total stock and total international stock which is fine by me. I just saw news from 4 hours ago that they are reducing their total bond fund's exposure to some bond sectors but I don't know if this ...
by GaryA505
Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options
Replies: 44
Views: 1776

Re: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options

Thanks Taylor. I don't mind taking more risk on the bond side. Pimco Total Return took a -5.79% hit in 2008 and I'm ok with that, given the overall track record.
by GaryA505
Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options
Replies: 44
Views: 1776

Re: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options

I should have mentioned that I need a taxable bond fund for this 3-fund combo. It's in an IRA so the tax efficiency is irrelevant. Unless somebody tells me it's a bad idea, I would just use Pimco Total Return (PONDX). VTSMX/VTIAX/PONDX
by GaryA505
Sun Jul 16, 2017 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund portfolio - bond fund options
Replies: 44
Views: 1776

3-fund portfolio - bond fund options

I've pretty much decided on a 3-fund portfolio for one of my accounts and I'll use a total US stock, a toal international fund, and a bond fund. What I am wondering is what ard the options for type of bond fund. I see that that the usual choice is just a total US bond market fund. Are there any othe...
by GaryA505
Sun Jul 16, 2017 3:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please comment on the relative merits of these two portfolios.
Replies: 14
Views: 1036

Re: Please comment on the relative merits of these two portfolios.

Not being totally happy with either port #1 or port #2, I started thinking "out of the box" and now have port #3! :shock: My other account (SEP-IRA) at Fidelity still has new money going in, about $1300/month until I retire. So, I took a look at putting the $120k taxable there and implemen...
by GaryA505
Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please comment on the relative merits of these two portfolios.
Replies: 14
Views: 1036

Re: Please comment on the relative merits of these two portfolios.

We are in retirement and have what many would consider a portfolio that raises eyebrows here. I have never considered it to actually be two portfolios previously, but your comment about whether people have used the Wellesley/Wellington combo led to it. Basically, 60% of our assets are in the three ...
by GaryA505
Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please comment on the relative merits of these two portfolios.
Replies: 14
Views: 1036

Re: Please comment on the relative merits of these two portfolios.

$120,000 (40% of total) in taxable account. - VTSAX Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares, ER = 0.04% $30,000 (10% of total) in rollover IRA - VTIAX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares, ER = 0.11% ..... 25% of stocks in international. Isn't this 20% in inter...
by GaryA505
Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please comment on the relative merits of these two portfolios.
Replies: 14
Views: 1036

Re: Please comment on the relative merits of these two portfolios.

Good discussion! For port #1: To allow tax-free balancing I could do this: (50% Stock) .............TSM......TISM......TBM.......TEB.......Total: Taxable...45000....15000.................60000....120000 IRA........ 75000....25000....100000................200000 Total:....120000....40000....100000......
by GaryA505
Fri Jul 14, 2017 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please comment on the relative merits of these two portfolios.
Replies: 14
Views: 1036

Re: Please comment on the relative merits of these two portfolios.

Well, I spent about an hour writing a nice long, detailed reply to everyone who posted, but I got logged out and lost it all before posting. Lesson learned. I'm not going to retype the whole reply again, but thanks to all who replied. My income taxes are 25% plus 5%. No single-state munis available ...
by GaryA505
Fri Jul 14, 2017 1:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please comment on the relative merits of these two portfolios.
Replies: 14
Views: 1036

Please comment on the relative merits of these two portfolios.

OK, I've been reading this forum for a while and getting some ideas on how to re-allocate some of my assets. I have a rollover IRA with about $180,000 in it, along with $120,000 in cash that I plan to use in a taxable account, so we have $300,000 to allocate. I'm good with a 50% stock allocation. Th...
by GaryA505
Sat Jul 01, 2017 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Date 2015 vs Managed Payout - Is this a dumb question?
Replies: 6
Views: 803

Re: Vanguard Target Date 2015 vs Managed Payout - Is this a dumb question?

The problem is an "endowment-style" portfolio style really only works well for something with a lifespan longer than a person's lifetime (same with long-term bonds. It's an interesting side-note to the dividends debate, a real-life example of a sustained withdrawal strategy that explicitl...
by GaryA505
Fri Jun 30, 2017 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Date 2015 vs Managed Payout - Is this a dumb question?
Replies: 6
Views: 803

Vanguard Target Date 2015 vs Managed Payout - Is this a dumb question?

So, I'm studying various fund portfolios, among them Vanguard Target Date 2015 (VTXVX) and Managed Payout (VPGDX). What I'm wondering is this. These funds seem to have the same objective, which is retirement income. So why are the portfolios so different? The obvious reason is that they are both mak...
by GaryA505
Thu Jun 29, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sanity check - please comment on my plan for taxable account.
Replies: 4
Views: 546

Re: Sanity check - please comment on my plan for taxable account.

I should have about $750K to $850K in retirement accounts when I pull the trigger. SS will be about $40K/year and I figure I can draw about $30K/year from the retirement accounts. We won't be living high, but we don't like cruises or Las Vegas, so that should do. $40K SS and $30K from tax deferred ...
by GaryA505
Thu Jun 29, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sanity check - please comment on my plan for taxable account.
Replies: 4
Views: 546

Re: Sanity check - please comment on my plan for taxable account.

1) what are your state and local tax brackets? Also, what is your state? 2) Do you not have enough room in your tax-advantaged for your bond allocation? Thanks for the reply. State income tax 4.9% (NM). No single-state Muni fund is available. I might be able to make some room in my tax-deferred. I ...
by GaryA505
Thu Jun 29, 2017 1:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sanity check - please comment on my plan for taxable account.
Replies: 4
Views: 546

Sanity check - please comment on my plan for taxable account.

OK, now I've got $120K destined for taxable account, still sitting in the bank earning nothing. I'm feeling a little conservative, so I'm thinking: $36000 VTSMX (Total Stock Market Inv) $12000 VGTSX (Total International Stock) $72000 VWIUX (Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Adm) Or I might even go to $50...
by GaryA505
Tue Jun 27, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why do Vanguard Target Retirement funds have no REIT?
Replies: 6
Views: 502

Re: Why do Vanguard Target Retirement funds have no REIT?

triceratop wrote:They do have REITs, at market weight proportions as they appear in the equity portions.


Yes, I forgot to mention that I knew that, but I've noticed that some of the lazy ports have an added 5% to 20% in REIT (Coffeehouse, Swensen Unconventional, Ferri Core-Four, etc).
by GaryA505
Tue Jun 27, 2017 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why do Vanguard Target Retirement funds have no REIT?
Replies: 6
Views: 502

Why do Vanguard Target Retirement funds have no REIT?

I've been working on coming up with an AA for myself (I'm thinking probably 4 or 5 funds) and have been looking at some of the boglehead portfolios and lazy portfolios. One thing I noticed is that Vanguard Target Retirement funds have no REIT component. Does anyone know why? I guess the same questio...
by GaryA505
Fri Jun 16, 2017 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to approximate Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBIAX) with two other Vanguard funds?
Replies: 11
Views: 626

Re: How to approximate Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBIAX) with two other Vanguard funds?

Levett wrote:"Let's say you liked the idea of this balanced fund, but wanted a 65/35 or 70/30 split."

But that's not what you originally said. :wink:

Lev


I wanted to keep the question simple, without bringing in a different AA to it. :sharebeer
by GaryA505
Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to approximate Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBIAX) with two other Vanguard funds?
Replies: 11
Views: 626

Re: How to approximate Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBIAX) with two other Vanguard funds?

nisiprius, you rock! I'm also going to study up on those Life Strategy funds. I've got sort of a "messy" conglomeration of mutual funds in 3 different accounts, and I've also got about $100K in cash that I need to get working for me. I'm doing some homework before I make my plan. A Boglehe...
by GaryA505
Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to approximate Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBIAX) with two other Vanguard funds?
Replies: 11
Views: 626

Re: How to approximate Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBIAX) with two other Vanguard funds?

Levett wrote:Gary,

If you are attracted to VBIAX, why would you want to approximate it?

Why not buy it?

(Perhaps I have missed something.)

Lev


Yes, you missed something.
Let's say you liked the idea of this balanced fund, but wanted a 65/35 or 70/30 split.
by GaryA505
Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to approximate Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBIAX) with two other Vanguard funds?
Replies: 11
Views: 626

Re: How to approximate Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBIAX) with two other Vanguard funds?

OK I know, I'm responding to my own post. 60% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) 40% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBTLX) or 60% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) 40% Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund Admiral Sha...

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