Search found 316 matches

by GAAP
Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: McKinsey: Rising corporate debt: Peril or promise?
Replies: 6
Views: 727

Re: McKinsey: Rising corporate debt: Peril or promise?

I'm well aware of McKinsey's influence on big business. I don't make financial decisions based upon the recommendations of any organization or person -- including the sainted names popular in this forum. In any case, I was more interested in the general observations within the report -- changes in d...
by GAAP
Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: McKinsey: Rising corporate debt: Peril or promise?
Replies: 6
Views: 727

McKinsey: Rising corporate debt: Peril or promise?

Summary at https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/rising-corporate-debt-peril-or-promise 36-page PDF at https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/rising%20corporate%20debt%20peri...
by GAAP
Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take a job with a company being acquired?
Replies: 16
Views: 1404

Re: Take a job with a company being acquired?

Would you fit into the culture of Company A? Over time, the culture of Company B will be forced to change into the mold from Company A. That process is likely to be somewhat traumatic for Company B employees.

Very few companies do acquisitions well...
by GAAP
Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4948

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

This is what stands out to me so far: Bonds show a longterm downward trend with no mean reversion. Now at 2% Real, with nothing to indicate they won't go lower. Stocks show a longterm mean reversion trend around 5-6% Real, with nothing to indicate that will change. In any individual country, stock g...
by GAAP
Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4948

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

I try to estimate a trend using a weighted average of the last 50 years and the post-2000 results. This year, that yields 4.55% for equity, 4.53% for IT bonds, and 0.38% for ST bonds. The hope is to get the overall trend -- but inform it with more recent results so that my forward look is closer to...
by GAAP
Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I was rear ended and the other guy wants a payout!
Replies: 106
Views: 8838

Re: I was rear ended and the other guy wants a payout!

One other note, get the police report -- pay whatever fee it takes ($10 in California). You really do want to know if they assigned blame -- and to whom they assigned it. Why? What's the OP going to do with that? Probably just get worked up. If he has decent insurance, then that's for them to worry...
by GAAP
Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I was rear ended and the other guy wants a payout!
Replies: 106
Views: 8838

Re: I was rear ended and the other guy wants a payout!

One other note, get the police report -- pay whatever fee it takes ($10 in California). You really do want to know if they assigned blame -- and to whom they assigned it.
by GAAP
Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4948

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

If I am reading the graph right, it looks like we are about to level off for a long time at a very low rate of real return for bonds. That has some implications for retirement planning and bequest motives, no? In my personal financial planning, I'm resigned to low real bond yields for the foreseeab...
by GAAP
Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Renting vs Buying a Home
Replies: 24
Views: 1594

Re: Renting vs Buying a Home

Some initial thoughts: A $900K house, with a $100k down payment that destroys your emergency savings would still cost $800K. The google mortgage calculator quotes me a monthly payment of $3783 -- assuming you have sufficient credit to get the 3.92% rate, and didn't need PMI for the loan (doubtful). ...
by GAAP
Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4948

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

I am not sure how to even think about a "correlation" that doesn't correlate even if technically you can compute numbers. I was hoping to be able to evaluate how likely global bonds would be to offer diversification benefits in the future. Market-specific data is readily available -- but doesn't re...
by GAAP
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I was rear ended and the other guy wants a payout!
Replies: 106
Views: 8838

Re: I was rear ended and the other guy wants a payout!

You talk to the other guy exactly once -- to exchange insurance information. After that, you're paying the insurance company to deal with it.
by GAAP
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home Sellers - do you read Buyer inspection reports?
Replies: 25
Views: 1947

Re: Home Sellers - do you read Buyer inspection reports?

michaeljc70 wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:24 am
Presumably they had an inspection when they bought.
Both of our selling and buying Real Estate agents said "You would be surprised"... One said that few buyers actually pay for an inspection of a newer tract home -- they seem to think it costs too much. To me, that's cheap insurance.
by GAAP
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4948

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

Is there sufficient data to indicate if the correlation between equity and bonds changed over time?
by GAAP
Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home Sellers - do you read Buyer inspection reports?
Replies: 25
Views: 1947

Re: Home Sellers - do you read Buyer inspection reports?

Further, though you may be legally required to disclose such things to a future buyer if the sale falls through, it is extremely unlikely the future buyer would ever know about the prior inspection report. I am not advocating not disclosing something legally required, but I am talking about a situa...
by GAAP
Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 11659

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

May I ask your approximate age and if your mentality has changed over the years? Have you "paid" to decrease the complexity of your portfolio and wished you had done it sooner? Late 50's and certainly it's changed -- and gotten much simpler. I don't know that I've "paid", since I've been reasonably...
by GAAP
Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home Sellers - do you read Buyer inspection reports?
Replies: 25
Views: 1947

Re: Home Sellers - do you read Buyer inspection reports?

Certainly I read them -- the buyer will be using the report to negotiate the price. It's hard to respond effectively if you don't know what they think they see. reading a prospective buyers inspection report on a property one is selling may oblige one to disclose the findings to other prospective bu...
by GAAP
Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4948

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

When I made this statement, I had in mind the finer-grain trajectory of what happened in the past, in term of decades , not centuries. Where bonds had flat periods of time, upward periods of time, downwards period of time, with little rhyme or reason. And I defined consistency as return-to-the-mean...
by GAAP
Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4948

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

One could say that bonds displayed a form of short-term consistency (low volatility, at least in nominal value), and no long-term consistency. I dunno, seems like bond returns do have a fairly consistent long term pattern to me -- downward... Unfortunately, the trend is slow enough that I don't thi...
by GAAP
Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Forbes: Millennials Aren't Having Kids Heres Why That's a Problem for Baby Boomer Real Estate and Retirement
Replies: 74
Views: 6990

Re: Forbes: Millennials Aren't Having Kids Heres Why That's a Problem for Baby Boomer Real Estate and Retirement

I remember reading a WSJ article that made the same points 20+ years ago. "Sell and downsize for your retirement" has been pushed for decades. However, same-house prices can't rise much faster than inflation or nobody can buy them. Older houses need significant investments to bring them up to the le...
by GAAP
Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone with a paid off house drop homeowners insurance
Replies: 79
Views: 5650

Re: Anyone with a paid off house drop homeowners insurance

She recent had a robbery with expensive jewelry stolen. Her claim was denied. Unless she specifically paid for coverage on that expensive jewelry by declaring a value for it, it is easily likely she hit the fairly low standard coverage. My guess is that she got what she paid for -- but didn't actua...
by GAAP
Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Boring Job
Replies: 63
Views: 6593

Re: Boring Job

Loik098 wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:38 pm
OP, if you do decide to quit, don't mention boredom as the reason at your next interview.
Maybe mention need for growth, excited about new opportunities, etc. -- but definitely NOT boredom.
by GAAP
Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone with a paid off house drop homeowners insurance
Replies: 79
Views: 5650

Re: Anyone with a paid off house drop homeowners insurance

Think of it as a 0.3% expense ratio -- assuming your liability is no more than the value of the house. If like me, you carry more liability than the value of the house, that ER goes down. Is the risk of a loss that equals 240K (minus deductible) less than 0.3%? If you can find the real risk, then y...
by GAAP
Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads, tell me about your 40's?
Replies: 179
Views: 36783

Re: Bogleheads, tell me about your 40's?

Don't blink, take lots of photos -- those kids will be out of the house faster than you realize...
by GAAP
Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone with a paid off house drop homeowners insurance
Replies: 79
Views: 5650

Re: Anyone with a paid off house drop homeowners insurance

Think of it as a 0.3% expense ratio -- assuming your liability is no more than the value of the house. If like me, you carry more liability than the value of the house, that ER goes down. Is the risk of a loss that equals 240K (minus deductible) less than 0.3%? If you can find the real risk, then yo...
by GAAP
Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: converting some traditional IRA to Roth
Replies: 45
Views: 2356

Re: converting some traditional IRA to Roth

The math is simple, if tax rate is lower today than retirement, do some conversions. If tax rate is higher today than in retirement, wait. Knowing the facts of your retirement finances 25-30 years out, not so simple. Wiki here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Traditional_versus_Roth True. However, ...
by GAAP
Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4948

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

I would just point out, though, that you've highlighted the "least likely and desirable" option identified by the authors (quote below, my bold). Obviously, no one knows the future, but the "end to globalization" does seem like a rather dark and extreme outlook in my view. Very dark and extreme -- ...
by GAAP
Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4948

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

2) Bond returns have fallen steadily from 9%-10% in the late Middle Ages to 1%-2% today. At root, real interest rates reflect perceived risk and uncertainty, be it societal chaos, war, high inflation, etc. Today's low rates reflect today's relative global stability and peace — which is also likely ...
by GAAP
Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large inheritance -- looking for advice
Replies: 56
Views: 6529

Re: Large inheritance -- looking for advice

I'd sell ALL the stocks as soon as possible and not attach any sentimental value to them. The ones in a taxable account: Get them gone before any of the capital gains get bigger. My experience with my mother's estate says the same. Take the tax hit once and be done with it. Otherwise, you've got a ...
by GAAP
Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: daughter wants a college transfer?
Replies: 65
Views: 5064

Re: daughter wants a college transfer?

Since I don't know her, it's really hard to answer what is "right". However, if she is truly not happy, then she may not even finish at all... My daughter stopped for a while after the first year, figured out what she wanted, and went on to graduate. My son, did something similar -- although it invo...
by GAAP
Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Healdsburg, CA - Chalk Hill Road Question
Replies: 5
Views: 636

Re: Healdsburg, CA - Chalk Hill Road Question

might want to check against the fire maps from last year -- not sure if that got spared or not.
by GAAP
Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?
Replies: 113
Views: 7160

Re: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?

As a motorcyclist, I am inherently opposed to anything that encourages drivers to disconnect from the driving experience. Given how poor systems like this are at identifying the presence of a motorcycle, I'm even more opposed. I think such systems should be banned... I had a discussion with another...
by GAAP
Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questions about RMDs
Replies: 41
Views: 5561

Re: Questions about RMDs

Thank you GAAP, who wrote: As long as your real returns exceed the withdrawal rate, the account will grow in real terms. If you want to plan on only taking RMDs, then you can use the tax tables to see at what age your RMD percentage exceeds your expected real portfolio returns (give or take a coupl...
by GAAP
Sun Jun 03, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questions about RMDs
Replies: 41
Views: 5561

Re: Questions about RMDs

What a terrible thing to happen that even though I transferred my RMD to a cash account, my IRA at the end of 2018 is higher than at the end of 2017. (I guess I will have to come back here and give a report either way.) I guess all my saving for the past 30+ years are paying off. Start value - with...
by GAAP
Sun Jun 03, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Location Gets REALLY Complex [Tax-ajusted asset allocation]
Replies: 21
Views: 2170

Re: Asset Location Gets REALLY Complex

On those occasions when I've rolled-over funds, received inheritances, or otherwise made fundamental changes to the portfolio, I've have tried to locate those assets efficiently -- but only within the constraints of my Asset Allocation. I would need a pretty good reason to rebalance everything to ge...
by GAAP
Sun Jun 03, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tool board for basement - plywood or pegboard?
Replies: 30
Views: 1854

Re: Tool board for basement - plywood or pegboard?

How about a third option -- slatwall. Costs more, but you have the full range of options used in retail establishments -- everything from simple hooks to baskets of varying size. I put some scraps in my last house, using baskets for some items, hooks for others, even used some bars for clothing hang...
by GAAP
Thu May 31, 2018 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Maximum to Spend on Rent
Replies: 9
Views: 1025

Re: Maximum to Spend on Rent

My guideline is no more than 30% net income spent on total housing costs -- including rent, utilities, and insurance. In your case, that would $1,407/month.
by GAAP
Thu May 31, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: advice about buy down mortgage rate?
Replies: 5
Views: 611

Re: advice about buy down mortgage rate?

A breakeven analysis can help you decide: Rate PMT Cost PMT Delta Cost Delta Breakeven months 4.125 1628 4,199.00 74 4619 62 4.25 1652 3,780.00 50 4200 84 4.375 1677 1,680.00 25 2100 84 4.5 1702 -420.00 This is using the 4.5% rate as a comparison. If you want to save $74/month in payments by getting...
by GAAP
Wed May 30, 2018 6:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do average kids from upper middle class families get any free college money (Scholarships / non-repayable grants etc)
Replies: 266
Views: 17518

Re: Do average kids from upper middle class families get any free college money (Scholarships / non-repayable grants etc

It also depends on how much effort they are willing to spend applying for smaller amounts. If they are, then sites like Fastweb have some value. Investigating local, smaller scholarships may also pay dividends.
by GAAP
Wed May 30, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?
Replies: 113
Views: 7160

Re: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?

As a motorcyclist, I am inherently opposed to anything that encourages drivers to disconnect from the driving experience.

Given how poor systems like this are at identifying the presence of a motorcycle, I'm even more opposed.

I think such systems should be banned...
by GAAP
Wed May 30, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reverse Mortgages
Replies: 18
Views: 1880

Re: Reverse Mortgages

Equity in the place you live doesn't really provide you with anything in and of itself. It's really a construct of current market conditions with no inherent value. At best, you can reasonably expect housing equity to keep pace with inflation -- but with significant risk from localized phenomena. Us...
by GAAP
Wed May 30, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 11659

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

In my case, it's simplicity for my heirs, not just for me. I'm naturally inclined toward the more complex sliced/diced/tilted portfolio -- but need to consider heirs that are not ready to manage such a portfolio. It would be irresponsible on my part to leave them with something that they don't under...
by GAAP
Wed May 30, 2018 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 11659

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

Timing is everything -- today's Knowledge@Wharton podcast is entitled "Want to Be in Control of Your Wealth? Un-clutter Your Investments": http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/want-control-wealth-un-clutter-investments/ Often people find that the wealthier they are, the less control they have ...
by GAAP
Wed May 30, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Altering REIT exposure with home ownership
Replies: 8
Views: 804

Re: Altering REIT exposure with home ownership

in·vest·ment inˈves(t)mənt/ noun noun: investment; plural noun: investments 1. the action or process of investing money for profit or material result. Your home is not an investment -- you are not trying to make a profit from it. Decisions about AA should be independent of the place you live. You a...
by GAAP
Mon May 28, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reverse Mortgages
Replies: 18
Views: 1880

Re: Reverse Mortgages

It's a tool -- how you use it is independent from the tool itself. I like the idea of the Line-Of-Credit (LOC), not the cash withdrawal. I can see several appropriate uses for that -- including funding Roth conversion taxes, slowing portfolio leaks from really bad sequence of returns, covering unexp...
by GAAP
Mon May 28, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Htc u12+ on Verizon [Cellphone]
Replies: 5
Views: 542

Re: Htc u12+ on Verizon

What's the difference between selecting the Verizon version vs the unlocked version on this page? https://www.htc.com/us/smartphones/htc-u12-plus/buy/ There's a reasonably good explanation of locked vs unlocked at https://www.cnet.com/news/confused-about-locked-vs-unlocked-phones-ask-maggie-explain...
by GAAP
Mon May 28, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Remote temperature monitoring
Replies: 22
Views: 1768

Re: Remote temperature monitoring

For a different possibility, Simplisafe with just a freeze sensor -- probably costs more than you want, but has built-in battery backup and cellular access in case the whole house loses power.

There may be other DIY options using similar alarm systems -- haven't really looked.
by GAAP
Thu May 24, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Trend: Bonds in Roth IRA
Replies: 16
Views: 2533

Re: New Trend: Bonds in Roth IRA

I would think it comes down to how much you have to invest, your desired allocation, and the places you can invest it. If you're doing Roth Conversions, you may eventually run out of TIRA space. If you're spending from taxable first, you may run out of taxable space. In either of those situations, i...
by GAAP
Thu May 24, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renting vs Owning Your Home
Replies: 166
Views: 13320

Re: Renting vs Owning Your Home

3. OWNING IS LESS RISKY Even if you move, you retain some protection because in a down market you'd sell low and buy low, and in an up-market, you'd sell high and buy high. So your gain or loss is limited as long as the real estate markets are comparable and you don't wait too long between selling ...
by GAAP
Thu May 24, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 10531

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

In part 25, ERN demonstrates that having a relatively small cash cushion (i.e. bucket strategy) actually worked very well in the two worst-case scenarios for retirees (1929 and 1966). What I assume here is that the cash bucket doesn’t reduce the stock/bond investment but it’s in addition to the $1m...
by GAAP
Thu May 24, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I've never budgeted sucessfully
Replies: 59
Views: 4923

Re: I've never budgeted sucessfully

My first impression is a lack of organization or perhaps a surfeit of complication. I would probably start with some mental accounting that separates your property management stuff from day-to-day living. IOW, create a property management business in your budget that then becomes an investment incom...