Search found 1323 matches

by FinancialDave
Mon Jan 25, 2016 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A graphic on the role of bonds
Replies: 54
Views: 6910

Re: A graphic on the role of bonds

restarting a thread on interest rates that is approaching 3 years old is probably not too productive either, no?
by FinancialDave
Tue Jan 05, 2016 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 126
Views: 4196

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

I'll take it - most improved from last year in one trading day --- that has got to be a bad sign for my contrarian nature! No where to go but down from here!

:sharebeer
by FinancialDave
Tue Jan 05, 2016 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: people just love predictions
Replies: 16
Views: 1109

Re: people just love predictions

cfs wrote:I heard a so-called market expert doing this . . .

"Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen, and then explaining why it didn't! "


I think you missed the "un-said."

If you make enough predictions a few of them are bound to come true.

fd
by FinancialDave
Tue Jan 05, 2016 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: people just love predictions
Replies: 16
Views: 1109

Re: people just love predictions

I love predictions, especially after 2014!

They are addicting just like individual stock investing when you have a winner or two!

I'm signed up again in 2016 for two more predictions!

:D
by FinancialDave
Mon Jan 04, 2016 1:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 126
Views: 4196

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

Two Gas Wonder: :D because the one gas wonder last year was a bust!

Long: LNG
Long: ULTR
by FinancialDave
Sun Jan 03, 2016 1:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 753
Views: 110670

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Once again, I am using longinvest's calculator https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Calculating_personal_returns, because I like having a consistent means of reporting returns. I understand that everyone has their own way of tracking things, but it sure would be nice if they also used this calculator. H...
by FinancialDave
Sun Jan 03, 2016 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS
Replies: 53
Views: 4084

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

From first to 206. I think I might have been off by one year with my guess :oops:
by FinancialDave
Sun Dec 06, 2015 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: non-Vanguard mutual funds in Roth IRA
Replies: 6
Views: 358

Re: non-Vanguard mutual funds in Roth IRA

As mentioned you can open up a Roth anywhere if you are bound to buy non-Vanguard funds. If you are only buying once a year however I don't see the commissions as a large expense. In my Vanguard Roth I do have one non-Vanguard fund which is a PRIME CAP Odyssey fund, which was very easy to buy and fo...
by FinancialDave
Thu Nov 19, 2015 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE Synchrony Share Exchange
Replies: 50
Views: 7183

Re: GE Synchrony Share Exchange

I am a little curious about the effect of the exchange, which I did not participate in, so this is only theoretical. GE gave a 7% premium for exchanging GE shares for Synchrony. But at the same time, those shares reduced GE's outstanding shares by 6.6%. I see three possibilities, and want to know w...
by FinancialDave
Thu Nov 19, 2015 2:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE Synchrony Share Exchange
Replies: 50
Views: 7183

Re: GE Synchrony Share Exchange

Doc, It is true that for every $100 of GE you actually exchange you will get $107.53 of Synchrony, but neither I nor you can predict whether that will turn into a profit or loss for you or Mrs Doc, just as you can't predict whether the GE that has run up over 20% this year will make a profit for you...
by FinancialDave
Wed Nov 18, 2015 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard converting mutual fund accounts to brokerage?
Replies: 374
Views: 47305

Re: VBS Upgrade

They would implement it like other brokers: You would not be able to withdraw the money out of your account for T+3 days or until the last trade settles. I am referring to the statement that let's you buy Vanguard mutual funds before the sale of securities (e.g. ETFs) settle. Does other brokerages ...
by FinancialDave
Wed Nov 18, 2015 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE Synchrony Share Exchange
Replies: 50
Views: 7183

Re: GE Synchrony Share Exchange

Doc, I guess I don't thoroughly understand your question. When we buy a stock no matter what it is we always expect a profit, but sometimes our emotions, or the market just get in our way. IMHO selecting to do or not do the SYF exchange does not guarantee any profit will be made. On the surface you ...
by FinancialDave
Tue Nov 17, 2015 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE Synchrony Share Exchange
Replies: 50
Views: 7183

Re: GE Synchrony Share Exchange

I didn't exchange any of my GE shares but saw this: "GE (NYSE:GE) says its offer to shareholders to exchange its common stock for shares of Synchrony Financial (NYSE:SYF) was oversubscribed by 3.2 times." What does this mean to those who decided to swap GE for SYF? It just means they will...
by FinancialDave
Tue Nov 10, 2015 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE Synchrony Share Exchange
Replies: 50
Views: 7183

Re: GE Synchrony Share Exchange

I seem to remember from somewhere that the stock leaving the S&P 500 is the one that gets the pop. Sort of counter-intuitive.

In any event I don't think it materially changes anything.

Dave
by FinancialDave
Mon Nov 09, 2015 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE Synchrony Share Exchange
Replies: 50
Views: 7183

Re: GE Synchrony Share Exchange

Gentlmen: At today's price for GE and SYN, it seems like a no-brainer to make a trade of a $29.92 stock for a $34.00 stock. I realize that share prices are subject to market adjustments following the swap, but this seems like a reasonable chance I'm going to take. thats not how it works, you are no...
by FinancialDave
Fri Oct 16, 2015 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Use Target Date fund as part of lazy portfolio?
Replies: 18
Views: 1728

Re: Use Target Date fund as part of lazy portfolio?

One simple way to improve the Vanguard TDF is to add some Small-Cap Value to the mix. fd It won't improve it; it will just make the overall allocation different. Test it out over the next 5-10 years and decide for yourself. I didn't mean to imply I have a crystal ball, just that sometimes an asset ...
by FinancialDave
Fri Oct 16, 2015 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Use Target Date fund as part of lazy portfolio?
Replies: 18
Views: 1728

Re: Use Target Date fund as part of lazy portfolio?

One simple way to improve the Vanguard TDF is to add some Small-Cap Value to the mix.

fd
by FinancialDave
Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 183
Views: 18845

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

To the OP, there are two possible future outcomes: 1) You decide you did the right thing: be sure to crow about it, but remember it might not work out so well next time. 2) You decide you did the wrong thing: use it as a learning experience, and tell yourself that education is expensive. :beer I th...
by FinancialDave
Thu Sep 24, 2015 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have Interest Rates Become Easier To Predict?
Replies: 47
Views: 3991

Re: Have Interest Rates Become Easier To Predict?

Interesting, and fresh. I see no evidence in either of those charts that interest rates are becoming easier to predict--not the Fed-determined Fed funds target rate, and not the more-important-to-me 10-year Treasury rate. I personally continue to accept "the common wisdom ... that 'the future ...
by FinancialDave
Tue Sep 22, 2015 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's "Deep Risk" - A rare opportunity for inflation protection?
Replies: 56
Views: 7609

Re: Bernstein's "Deep Risk" - A rare opportunity for inflation protection?

I am curious if others who read the book have reconsidered how they built their portfolio? For me, my asset allocation is roughly the same (about half stocks and half bonds), but I will likely keep a more fixed quantity of fixed income in the future to get my family through 5-10 years of expenses, ...
by FinancialDave
Tue Aug 04, 2015 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has the 4% rule held up since the tech bubble and the 2008 crisis
Replies: 45
Views: 7212

Re: How has the 4% rule held up since the tech bubble and the 2008 crisis

Interesting question. Here's a video from the AICPA that shows how the 4% rule has held up in just about every year for the past 100 years in most developed countries. There's a lot of good info here--everything from sequence-of-returns, to safe withdrawal rates, to market history.... http://www.ai...
by FinancialDave
Thu Jul 16, 2015 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 4566

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

Regarding "price" changes and ex-dividend date: Does this help or confuse the issue? After the close of business on the day before the ex-dividend date and before the market opens on the ex-dividend date, all open good-until-canceled limit, stop, and stop limit orders are automatically re...
by FinancialDave
Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend stock investing or Total Return?
Replies: 41
Views: 3019

Re: Dividend stock investing or Total Return?

The argument mostly put forward is that you shouldn’t go for income per se at all, but rather you should go for total return from broad market cap index funds and sell down your holdings to generate income as required. Nothing new to add here, but to remind readers that dividends come along almost ...
by FinancialDave
Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend stock investing or Total Return?
Replies: 41
Views: 3019

Re: Dividend stock investing or Total Return?

The argument mostly put forward is that you shouldn’t go for income per se at all, but rather you should go for total return from broad market cap index funds and sell down your holdings to generate income as required. Nothing new to add here, but to remind readers that dividends come along almost ...
by FinancialDave
Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend stock investing or Total Return?
Replies: 41
Views: 3019

Re: Dividend stock investing or Total Return?

I use 100% equities in this strategy, but my perpetual income bucket is less than half of my retirement savings. The rest is parked in total return index growth and value. I'm confused by this. If you have 100% equities, where do the buckets come in? Cash you're spending doesn't know where it comes...
by FinancialDave
Tue Jul 14, 2015 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend stock investing or Total Return?
Replies: 41
Views: 3019

Re: Dividend stock investing or Total Return?

There are a couple issues that I have written about on other sites, but basically it boils down to two key issues: 1. In the accumulation stage young investors should embrace the volatility that total return investing in equities can bring. You can also "tilt" your index funds toward value...
by FinancialDave
Mon Jul 13, 2015 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 4566

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

Have the exchanges always implemented this price drop on the ex-dividend date? The exchanges don't implement the drop at all; it is caused by the market. However, it is reported in the daily change to reflect what investors actually earn. Suppose that a stock announces that it will pay a $1 dividen...
by FinancialDave
Sun Jul 12, 2015 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 4566

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

It's a good and well-stated question and analysis. The payment of dividends does not increase the total wealth of the shareholder. Dividends paid are one of the two elements in total return . The other is share price changes. PJW I think in most cases I will agree with the above two statements - ma...
by FinancialDave
Sun Jul 12, 2015 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 4566

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

The discussion seems to have wandered quite far from the original topic. I find it extremely interesting that limit orders get adjusted exdiv. I've never heard of that before and it actually has substantial implications for long term stop-loss orders. Note that under no-arbitrage conditions, the pr...
by FinancialDave
Sun Jul 12, 2015 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 4566

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

The price is what the market participants, among themselves, say it is. I don't think any market participants adjust my open limit order down by a dollar for a $1 dividend and I suspect that maybe the same system that adjusts my limit order adjusts most other limit orders as well. Dave If you're pl...
by FinancialDave
Sat Jul 11, 2015 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 4566

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

The price is what the market participants, among themselves, say it is.


I don't think any market participants adjust my open limit order down by a dollar for a $1 dividend and I suspect that maybe the same system that adjusts my limit order adjusts most other limit orders as well.

Dave
by FinancialDave
Sat Jul 11, 2015 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 4566

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

I understand that there is a discussion about the mechanics of how the market prices the stock dependent on and independent of the payment of the dividend.


And one of the points of trying to determine the above is to figure out if it was ever done differently.


Dave
by FinancialDave
Sat Jul 11, 2015 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 4566

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

PJW, Of your 3 explanations #2 seems to have some promise (the price is adjusted by some model) - the question is who is running the model? I watch level 2 realtime quotes quite often, but just like my brokerage limit order on the stock gets automatically lowered by $1 on the ex-date (for a stock th...
by FinancialDave
Sat Jul 11, 2015 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 4566

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

Pjw, Ok, I am still not sure I understand exactly what you are saying. Traders exist in the plural sense such as there are many of them and my understanding is they can only trade during extended or normal market hours. My understanding is this price adjustment occurs overnight in the off hours and ...
by FinancialDave
Sat Jul 11, 2015 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 4566

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

It's a good and well-stated question and analysis. The payment of dividends does not increase the total wealth of the shareholder. Dividends paid are one of the two elements in total return . The other is share price changes. ... Have the exchanges always implemented this price drop on the ex-divid...
by FinancialDave
Sat Jul 11, 2015 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 4566

Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

This is not a question as to whether dividends are good or bad, but a technical question as to whether the dividend payment itself adds anything to the total return equation given its resultant price action on the ex-dividend date. I recently wrote an article breaking out the two components of the T...
by FinancialDave
Mon Jul 06, 2015 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spending from separate retirement buckets
Replies: 46
Views: 4475

Re: Spending from separate retirement buckets

In my own retirement I have basically two buckets that run off two separate goals, for what might be considered two separate spending needs/wants. Prior to spending from the buckets below is some pension money which covers maybe 80% of the needs bucket. The first and primary bucket is a bucket of di...
by FinancialDave
Fri May 22, 2015 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paying zero fees on a hand picked stock portfolio
Replies: 66
Views: 5119

Re: Paying zero fees on a hand picked stock portfolio

I do realize I'm on the bogleheads board and this isn't part of the philosophy around here. I am hoping you guys poke holes in this potential strategy. I know you will! Also would be interested to hear if any of you folks employee this strategy and can speak from experience? This is the quote writt...
by FinancialDave
Thu May 21, 2015 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if the US stock market was only 25% of the world by market cap?
Replies: 37
Views: 2925

Re: What if the US stock market was only 25% of the world by market cap?

In general I may apply a small International (10%) from time to time, but I don't rely on it to put beans on the table. As Bogle suggests there are plenty of US multi-nationals that are already investing abroad and in a number of cases they do some currency hedging on their own. My biggest gripe is ...
by FinancialDave
Thu May 21, 2015 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paying zero fees on a hand picked stock portfolio
Replies: 66
Views: 5119

Re: Paying zero fees on a hand picked stock portfolio

For most of us, the debate about whether or not the market is "efficient" is not productive I would contend, as some others do that the market is absolutely NOT efficient in the short term - anyone only has to look at their portfolio a few days in a row to know this, and as a matter of fa...
by FinancialDave
Tue May 19, 2015 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paying zero fees on a hand picked stock portfolio
Replies: 66
Views: 5119

Re: Paying zero fees on a hand picked stock portfolio

What the people claiming to be disciples of Benjamin Graham don't mention is what Benjamin Graham said in 1976. In selecting the common stock portfolio, do you advise careful study of and selectivity among different issues? In general, no. I am no longer an advocate of elaborate techniques of secur...
by FinancialDave
Mon May 18, 2015 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard's Personal Advisor Recommendations
Replies: 22
Views: 5671

Re: Vanguard's Personal Advisor Recommendations

But also why is it necessary to reduce your returns by .3% to do so as you can profit from that research for free by just buying the TDF yourself - if it seems too risky decrease the date, if you want more aggressive, increase the date. Because there are many people like my elderly relatives who wo...
by FinancialDave
Mon May 18, 2015 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard's Personal Advisor Recommendations
Replies: 22
Views: 5671

Re: Vanguard's Personal Advisor Recommendations

My advisor recommended a simple 4 fund portfolio with a 90/10 AA based on my age and risk tolerance. My own personal experience suggests that at least their first pass at this 4-fund allocation will be something that pretty much looks like their target date fund for your age group. Does anyone else...
by FinancialDave
Mon May 18, 2015 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paying zero fees on a hand picked stock portfolio
Replies: 66
Views: 5119

Re: Paying zero fees on a hand picked stock portfolio

What you really need to do is study some of the written material published prior to 2008 by some of those dividend "experts" -- what you may see as I did is they were recommending a lot of banking stocks, which have since needed to do a reverse split just to stay out of the penny stock cat...
by FinancialDave
Mon Apr 20, 2015 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pay taxes for parent to convert to Roth?
Replies: 4
Views: 669

Re: Pay taxes for parent to convert to Roth?

I think the best plan is if family members do not get involved (unless they have to) in other's financial matters, as the best intentions can find a way to end badly and this can strain family relations. Best to leave it alone IMHO. Just hope that your parents live a very long life and spend every n...
by FinancialDave
Thu Apr 09, 2015 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is VDIGX Dividend Payout Always Small in 1st quarter?
Replies: 4
Views: 1038

Re: Why is VDIGX Dividend Payout Always Small in 1st quarter

The March distribution is not a real dividend, it is an "Oops, we got more income in 2014 than we previously had thought, so we are dumping out that extra income now." Here's an article about it: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/supplemental-fund-distributions-032015 This...
by FinancialDave
Wed Apr 08, 2015 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is VDIGX Dividend Payout Always Small in 1st quarter?
Replies: 4
Views: 1038

Why is VDIGX Dividend Payout Always Small in 1st quarter?

When looking at the VDIGX dividend only portion of the payout each March for the last couple years I notice it is about 1/10th the size of the dividend payout during the other 3 quarters. Does anyone know the technical reason for this? Is it just Vanguard being overly conservative for the total year...
by FinancialDave
Mon Mar 30, 2015 4:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: RMDs for 25-year-old - take out enough to fund annual Roth?
Replies: 38
Views: 2496

Re: RMDs for 25-year-old - take out enough to fund annual Ro

What is the definition of "full-time"? 1. The student must be enrolled for the number of hours or courses the school considers full-time, during "some" part of 5 calendar months -- the months do not need to be consecutive. 2. The school can be elementary school, high school, uni...
by FinancialDave
Mon Mar 30, 2015 4:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: RMDs for 25-year-old - take out enough to fund annual Roth?
Replies: 38
Views: 2496

Re: RMDs for 25-year-old - take out enough to fund annual Ro

It might make sense to use the RMD to contribute to the Roth and then make an additional contribution to a traditional IRA without taking a distribution. Especially if the income is near $25k it can allow one to capture a higher Saver's Credit. And yes, grad student TA's can do this. I did it in th...

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