Search found 5609 matches

by Fallible
Tue Jan 17, 2017 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: So, I'm going to gamble (for fun) and buy some individual stocks. Best way?
Replies: 51
Views: 2464

Re: So, I'm going to gamble (for fun) and buy some individual stocks. Best way?

This strategy doesn't really make sense. If you really want to gamble, wouldn't the real money be in small-cap stocks? Stocks that are poorly researched, not covered by institutional investors, and with the potential for massive gains or massive losses (which is what you want - a gamble)? Gambling ...
by Fallible
Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's a bearish investor to do?
Replies: 23
Views: 1744

Re: What's a bearish investor to do?

... I'm well aware that the established orthodoxy on this forum calls for staying in the market regardless of valuations or current events. I'd rather focus on how to construct a portfolio that limits exposure to equity downside risk (and possibly overexposure to the US dollar). The Boglehead "...
by Fallible
Mon Jan 16, 2017 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cardinal Sin - went to cash the day before 2016 election
Replies: 56
Views: 6088

Re: Cardinal Sin - went to cash the day before 2016 election

I can sympathize. I've never tried to time the market before but literally logged into Fidelity on election night and pondered hitting the button to go all cash. Like you, I was surprised at the market reaction to the election. Fortunately, my better angles prevailed. All you can do is take it as a...
by Fallible
Mon Jan 16, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is the housing market like stocks? When do you think prices fall again?
Replies: 38
Views: 2777

Re: Is the housing market like stocks? When do you think prices fall again?

Is the housing market actually cyclical, or is it like the stock market where everything is already "priced in" and will stay that way until there's no information? I want to hear from more experienced older folk who've seen how the housing market has gone. Does it go up and down regularl...
by Fallible
Sun Jan 15, 2017 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water
Replies: 29
Views: 5187

Re: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water

This article is so bad, including plainly factually incorrect information that I am going to try and find the time to write a blog on it, in the investment porn category is what this is. Larry +100!!! He lost me at the subtitle at the article: " Near-term market conditions don't look good ...&...
by Fallible
Sun Jan 15, 2017 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water
Replies: 29
Views: 5187

Re: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water

This article is so bad, including plainly factually incorrect information that I am going to try and find the time to write a blog on it, in the investment porn category is what this is. Larry Thank you, Larry. It's not only bad but obviously so in nearly every sentence, offering readers a lesson o...
by Fallible
Sun Jan 15, 2017 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cardinal Sin - went to cash the day before 2016 election
Replies: 56
Views: 6088

Re: Cardinal Sin - went to cash the day before 2016 election

Don't beat yourself up for that decision - most of us arrived here with some poor financial decision(s) in our past also! I'd go with the recommendation to jump back into a balanced portfolio, lifestyle or target date fund, since you indicated a balanced portfolio was what you were invested in befo...
by Fallible
Sat Jan 14, 2017 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cardinal Sin - went to cash the day before 2016 election
Replies: 56
Views: 6088

Re: Cardinal Sin - went to cash the day before 2016 election

Prior to 2016 election I went to the sidelines with my entire portfolio. I know the cautions against market timing but truly thought the emotional- hence market reaction would be different :beer . As a result, I would like to seek advice on how to manage my retirement moving forward: how to get bac...
by Fallible
Fri Jan 13, 2017 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% Stock or Bust?
Replies: 17
Views: 1808

Re: 100% Stock or Bust?

You should study the problem of how much risk you should take in investing and decide for yourself the best plan. There is no cut and dried formula and lots of things to think about. I like the discussion presented by Larry Swedroe in some of his books based on the concepts of need/ability/willinge...
by Fallible
Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inquiring about family finances?
Replies: 45
Views: 3361

Re: Inquiring about family finances?

I guess this begs another question that I've wondered about lately: Why is it so awkward and uncommon to discuss finances? Don't you think this is part of the reason why most people don't know much about saving, financial management, retirement planning etc? It's virtually all self-learned. ... You...
by Fallible
Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2270
Views: 561790

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Just finished Psycho on TCM. Have seen it several times. Every time I am surprised all over again on how great a movie it is. Anthony Perkins is quite the actor. Hitchcock is quite the director. Have also seen it many times, first when it came out in 1960, when several of my high school friends and...
by Fallible
Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 187
Views: 11545

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

Full disclosure, I was too young to be invested during the financial crisis. That being said, I'm having trouble understanding how bad it was. I hear about these bear markets (tech bubble, financial crisis, etc). All I see is a sharp decline, and then everything is gained back a couple years later....
by Fallible
Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to know your risk tolerance, without ever living through a crash?
Replies: 29
Views: 2251

Re: How to know your risk tolerance, without ever living through a crash?

OP, you might find this previous forum thread on risk tolerance by pro Boglehead Rick Ferri of some help, in particular his article on age-based allocation and young investors. He also links to a paper by Meir Statman and Carrie Pan on "risk tolerance, regret, overconfidence, and other investor...
by Fallible
Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to know your risk tolerance, without ever living through a crash?
Replies: 29
Views: 2251

Re: How to know your risk tolerance, without ever living through a crash?

How would somebody who never has been through a bear market measure their risk tolerance? I don't think that is knowable. ... I doubt that emotional risk tolerance is, or ever will be, precisely measurable, but I think it is knowable to some extent depending on how well one is in touch with one's s...
by Fallible
Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to know your risk tolerance, without ever living through a crash?
Replies: 29
Views: 2251

Re: How to know your risk tolerance, without ever living through a crash?

Many of my friends are Millennials. And I'm concerned that 100% stocks is just too aggressive for them. They don't know the hurt that may happen when the market tanks. Furthermore, their portion in bonds should probably be split between treasuries and TIPS, because they'll need that boost up when t...
by Fallible
Sat Jan 07, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2270
Views: 561790

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

... Memphis Bell is a bit stereotypical and cliched, but the story it tells-- of the first B17 to make the 20 missions and earn themselves a trip home (the statistical chance of doing that was something like less than 5% at that point in the war)-- is an amazing one. They hauled King George VI out ...
by Fallible
Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am timing the market. Why am I wrong?
Replies: 89
Views: 5693

Re: I am timing the market. Why am I wrong?

... As a newish-to-investing and new-to-Boglism guy, I was struck by two things. First, it seems pretty clear that a lot of thoughtful people (including some in this thread) agreed nearly unanimously that timing does not work. I didn't arrive with enough equities knowledge to believe I could time i...
by Fallible
Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am timing the market. Why am I wrong?
Replies: 89
Views: 5693

Re: I am timing the market. Why am I wrong?

Olibri, welcome to the forum. You ask why you’re wrong in timing the market, yet admit you’ve "invested blindly and randomly" during an "uneducated journey." Plus, you’ve recently tried learning by reading two financial publications and visiting online forums and you disagree wit...
by Fallible
Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on a Bogle quote
Replies: 29
Views: 2347

Re: Thoughts on a Bogle quote

I can’t tell you it’s right. I can’t say that international won’t do better in the future, because it has done so much worse in the past since I first made this statement back in ’93. There is room to disagree. Personally, I follow the advice to keep it below 20% of your portfolio. I think it's log...
by Fallible
Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How will the market perform in 2017?
Replies: 45
Views: 3137

Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

I would like to invite your thoughts on how the market will perform in 2017 and why and what measures you are taking to take advantage of this situation . The "measures" Bogleheads generally take, i.e., their asset allocations reflecting their need, ability, and willingness to take risk, ...
by Fallible
Thu Jan 05, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How To Sell Finance Books Like Harry Dent"
Replies: 11
Views: 936

Re: "How To Sell Finance Books Like Harry Dent"

Interesting that Dent's books are about six years apart, which could be just long enough for readers to forget his last disastrous forecast and buy his latest.

Thanks, Taylor, for the link to Carlson, and thanks, Larry, for your post.
by Fallible
Thu Jan 05, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to Increase AA and take more risk
Replies: 10
Views: 861

Re: Reasons to Increase AA and take more risk

Lately, I've been considering changing my asset allocation from 70/30 (stocks/bonds) to be slightly more aggressive at 75/25. I was going to let this happen naturally through additional contributions over time. I don't have a good rationale to do this other than I've learned that I can comfortably ...
by Fallible
Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Times: It’s Time to Ignore Advice About Which Stocks to Buy in 2017
Replies: 4
Views: 594

Re: New York Times: It’s Time to Ignore Advice About Which Stocks to Buy in 2017

But as the article also notes, not everyone should ignore the forecasts: There is nothing wrong with these lists if you are using them as mere suggestions of what companies might be worth investigating. There were some bona fide winners on almost every list: Goldman Sachs, Kennametal, Ellie Mae, Dou...
by Fallible
Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taking over from investment advisors
Replies: 16
Views: 1422

Re: Taking over from investment advisors

livesoft wrote:Simpler does not hurt, but "better" is in the eye of the beholder.


I would say simpler does more than not hurt; it simply works. "Better," if referring to complexity, can hurt.
by Fallible
Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2067
Views: 556771

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

For Michael Lewis fans, a nice brief profile by Walter Isaacson: https://www.washingtonpost.com/entertainment/books/becoming-michael-lewis/2016/12/29/5b412c54-c0a3-11e6-897f-918837dae0ae_story.html?utm_term=.70d6eb42d85f [in case of difficulty with link, search for "Becoming Michael Lewis"...
by Fallible
Tue Jan 03, 2017 7:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: You have 5-10 minutes to teach someone about personal finance
Replies: 54
Views: 3935

Re: You have 5-10 minutes to teach someone about personal finance

Simply point them in the right direction: show them the Bogleheads' philosophy, then advise them to read Bill Bernstein's free ebook, If You Can , and Jack Bogle's The Little Book Of Common Sense Investing , then the wiki's "Getting Started" page, which includes a listing of more books to ...
by Fallible
Sun Jan 01, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - have any REAL patterns ever been identified?
Replies: 39
Views: 3048

Re: Market Timing - have any REAL patterns ever been identified?

I'm sure there are tons of investment professionals that have run the numbers, but have there ever been any actual patterns identified, or does every day/month actually have the same up/down ratio? What you have to understand... Even if a pattern is identified, it will disappear once people trade t...
by Fallible
Sun Jan 01, 2017 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2270
Views: 561790

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Singing In The Rain , with Debbie Reynolds, Gene Kelly, and Dennis O'Connor. This is a wonderful classic movie musical. Agree. The most memorable scenes for me were Kelly's "Rain" dance, O'connor's "Make 'Em Laugh," and a surprise great performance from Jean Hagen, which I didn'...
by Fallible
Sun Jan 01, 2017 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 670
Views: 16198

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

I ended so far down the list last year I considered not entering this year. :( Then I remembered I ended higher up the list the year before that. :happy

2160 :D
by Fallible
Sun Jan 01, 2017 7:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Delayed Gratification In Life & its fallacies
Replies: 56
Views: 5709

Re: Delayed Gratification In Life & its fallacies

As I read thru many posts detailing how folks at a youngish age have amassed a huge amount of money ("Hi, I am 35 and my net worth is 2M"), I tend to think that there must be a % of them that perhaps got there by saving every penny they made while living extremely frugally, forgoing the m...
by Fallible
Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for staying the course
Replies: 20
Views: 1934

Re: Advice for staying the course

It's been a few years since I stumbled upon and adopted bogleheads investment practices, and 2.5 years since i established an IPS, set an AA, and implemented it with low-cost index funds. These have been pretty easy years - while there have been some dips, there haven't been prolonged scary periods...
by Fallible
Thu Dec 29, 2016 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How A 28-Year-Old Who Retired With A $2 Million Net Worth Is Investing In 2017
Replies: 42
Views: 5663

Re: How A 28-Year-Old Who Retired With A $2 Million Net Worth Is Investing In 2017

gkaplan wrote:
pepperz wrote:
SueG5123 wrote:"The girl"??? She's 28 years old.


lol out of everything in my post that's what you picked out and commented on? :) . . . .


That's the first thing that stuck out with me, as well.


And me.
by Fallible
Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are there any benefits to achieving "great wealth"?
Replies: 106
Views: 7987

Re: Are there any benefits to achieving "great wealth"?

OK Bogleheads, I have achieved what I consider "great wealth". I am not Donald Trump wealthy, nor CEO wealthy, nor San Francisco wealthy. But for a person who doesn't fit the previously listed criteria, I have achieved "great wealth". I'm in the 99th percentile by age, according...
by Fallible
Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help Parents Again?
Replies: 63
Views: 4468

Re: Help Parents Again?

Thank you all for your suggestions. To answer some of the questions: 1) I have 3 other siblings. We have all contributed financially to my parent's situation. 2) During the time I gave them the $100,000 over the last 10 years, I never realized how much debt they accumulated. I never really started ...
by Fallible
Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Learning an instrument as an adult?
Replies: 123
Views: 9692

Re: Learning an instrument as an adult?

Got my rental violin from a specialty luthier. Used, Romanian made instrument. The owner of the violin shop apparently does not deal in anything from China and does not rent to schools. $30 a month and violin would sell for about $2500. First lesson next week. Awkward to hold and I just ordered a s...
by Fallible
Tue Dec 27, 2016 10:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2270
Views: 561790

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Sully . Hanks was very good as Sullenberger, but the NTSB portrayed as bad guy was just sad and spoiled much of it for me. Reading the NTSB's report, you can see how far off the movie was: http://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Reports/AAR1003.pdf There also is much more to the story, f...
by Fallible
Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig on art, investing
Replies: 6
Views: 1156

Re: Jason Zweig on art, investing

I didn't see this article posted, but if so and I overlooked it, I apologize. It is a story of the financial author's precocious childhood in the antique business of his parents, how that market changed and became mxxxxssuch more efficient, and how the same might be said for financial markets. http...
by Fallible
Tue Dec 27, 2016 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remember what it was like before the recession?
Replies: 81
Views: 8110

Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

I remember talking with the neighbors about our soaring house prices and thinking it was too good to be true. By '85, when Greenspan talked about "froth" in housing and there were increasing news reports of bad loans, we knew it was just a matter of time before it would all end. Of course ...
by Fallible
Fri Dec 23, 2016 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?
Replies: 88
Views: 6613

Re: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?

I disagree with most of the posts here. It would take you months of full-time work to truly analyze the risk-adjusted performance of the moving-target portfolio they owned vs. the benchmarks suggested here, to the extent that you could have counterpoints to every possible argument. One issue is whe...
by Fallible
Fri Dec 23, 2016 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Predictions for 2017
Replies: 6
Views: 1552

Re: Financial Predictions for 2017

Thanks for these truly realistic predictions, Allan. When it comes to human nature, past can indeed be prologue.

Thanks for the link, Mel.
by Fallible
Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?
Replies: 88
Views: 6613

Re: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?

What would your parents have been doing without this advisor? You didn't have the time or education to help them all these years, and they didn't bother to educate themselves. So without the advisor, what would they have done? That is the only rational thing to compare their performance against. Ma...
by Fallible
Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?
Replies: 88
Views: 6613

Re: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?

Regardless of the advisor's red-flags email, if your parents don't understand what is being done with their hard-earned money and you are finding it difficult, that's reason enough to make a change. Would they be okay with leaving the advisor?
by Fallible
Wed Dec 21, 2016 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The True Cost of Owning a Dog
Replies: 175
Views: 12879

Re: Cost of dog ownershi

I would like a dog, but my wife will not allow it! Based on friends and relatives that are dog owners, and having had dogs growing up in the country - The BIGGEST (actual or potential) cost of a dog is the expense of "extraordinary" medical expenses if/when the dog encounters certain cond...
by Fallible
Tue Dec 20, 2016 8:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The True Cost of Owning a Dog
Replies: 175
Views: 12879

Re: Cost of dog ownershi

I would like a dog, but my wife will not allow it! Based on friends and relatives that are dog owners, and having had dogs growing up in the country - The BIGGEST (actual or potential) cost of a dog is the expense of "extraordinary" medical expenses if/when the dog encounters certain cond...
by Fallible
Tue Dec 20, 2016 7:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The True Cost of Owning a Dog
Replies: 175
Views: 12879

Re: Cost of dog ownership.

Anyone who is compelled to attempt to calculate the total cost of pet ownership should definitely not get one. Completely disagree. Part of the problem with people getting pets is they don't truly appreciate the total cost of ownership. They rationalize "I had one as a kid." or "my p...
by Fallible
Tue Dec 20, 2016 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The True Cost of Owning a Dog
Replies: 175
Views: 12879

Re: Cost of dog ownership.

For all of you dog lovers out there, which includes myself, consider this. Over the last ten years my dog has cost me approximately $200 per month. That includes food, grooming, the occasional day care, and vet visits in the Northeast. That does not count the acquisition cost and initial vet visits...
by Fallible
Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Learning an instrument as an adult?
Replies: 123
Views: 9692

Re: Learning an instrument as an adult?

Is the dulcimer similar to the ukele in ease of learning? The sound is quite different, but the dulcimer's is lovely. Have been hearing it often on holiday songs and I'm thinking of trying it out. What little I know about dulcimers is that they are tuned to an open chord and they play a diatonic sc...
by Fallible
Mon Dec 19, 2016 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Learning an instrument as an adult?
Replies: 123
Views: 9692

Re: Learning an instrument as an adult?

The problem is I live in a small condo unit, so taking up the piano probably is not an option. Also given the proximity of my neighbors, taking up the drums probably isn't an option either. You can buy a very good digital piano for $500 or so these days. Set the volume as loud or as quiet as you'd ...
by Fallible
Sun Dec 18, 2016 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concept of Bogleheads needing to "Save more"
Replies: 61
Views: 4832

Re: Concept of Bogleheads needing to "Save more"

Hello, Like many other bogleheads, I'm often trying to advise friends and family members to follow this type of investing. That being said, I've noticed something in the commonly stated bogleheads principals and don't fully understand the need for it. To put it simply, why does it constantly need t...
by Fallible
Fri Dec 16, 2016 4:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Learning an instrument as an adult?
Replies: 123
Views: 9692

Re: Learning an instrument as an adult?

I purchased a bass clarinet a few years ago with a goal to join the municipal band. It was pretty easy to get to a basic level, as I had played clarinet in school. Now, we've moved and there isn't really a municipal band option near us. So, it sits collecting dust. Same as the 4-5 guitars that I ow...

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