Search found 5971 matches

by Fallible
Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Loans paid off!
Replies: 17
Views: 891

Re: Loans paid off!

Glad you are sharing this milestone with us and congratulations to you and your "frugal" wife! :sharebeer
by Fallible
Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to recognize self-help books?
Replies: 18
Views: 765

Re: How to recognize self-help books?

FiveSigmas wrote:
Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:10 pm
....
I think I'd get a kick out of seeing a book titled "How y'all can be better people." ...
I got a kick out of that. :)

Y'all have a good day now.
by Fallible
Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to recognize self-help books?
Replies: 18
Views: 765

Re: How to recognize self-help books?

It's not always easy to positively define what is "self-help," but here's an article from "Psychology Today" that explains it and provides guidelines, some of which apply to writings of any genre: author credentials, writing quality, and critical reading. https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/fulfill...
by Fallible
Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA if you were just starting out again
Replies: 40
Views: 2638

Re: AA if you were just starting out again

I'm wondering just how good new information is in choosing an asset allocation (AA) vs experience. So, if starting all over again, would you use the same AA as you had before, or would you change it? What has experience taught you about risk and AA? Are the available information and the risk questi...
by Fallible
Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If you don't care about optimal performance?
Replies: 17
Views: 942

Re: If you don't care about optimal performance?

This article by Morgan Housel may apply here. It is about the wisdom of knowing and accepting what is "good enough," which turns out to be pretty darn good:

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/ ... nough.aspx
by Fallible
Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calling out the not so rich bogleheads
Replies: 173
Views: 17807

Re: Calling out the not so rich bogleheads

... I would say that the forums are generally dominated by folks who are millionaires, multi millionaires or soon to be millionaires at very young ages. This has the effect of scaring away and/or creating resentment in a lot of people who are not close to being millionaires or even just plain wealt...
by Fallible
Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is a decent financial book that everyone should buy?
Replies: 20
Views: 1454

Re: What is a decent financial book that everyone should buy?

I am not asking about a decent financial book to read, i can find that list here, rather I am asking particularly about owning that book instead of just borrowing it from library... A book with a big chance that one would need to go over it again every now and then for 1 or more reason.. You're clo...
by Fallible
Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF Bubble- Ben Carlson article
Replies: 4
Views: 779

Re: ETF Bubble- Ben Carlson article

An interesting article from Ben concerning ETFs. I was particularly interested in this paragraph: "I’m not suggesting that index funds and ETFs have no impact. The biggest problem with ETFs for investors is they trade them far too often, meaning they’re not passive investments at all. They’re low-c...
by Fallible
Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty
Replies: 41
Views: 2586

Re: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

An excellent explanation of risk and uncertainty and their differences comes from Ben Carlson in his book, A Wealth of Common Sense , beginning pg. 52 on "Risk versus Uncertainty": Risk is defined as the exposure to the chance of injury or loss. At times it can feel like you become injured when you ...
by Fallible
Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article--The reason Jack Bogle doesn’t fly first class says everything about his investing legacy
Replies: 51
Views: 3853

Re: Article--The reason Jack Bogle doesn’t fly first class says everything about his investing legacy

If you chose to fly first class, that's fine. We all work to earn a living and to enjoy our lives and there's nothing wrong with that. Looking at the bigger picture though, the point I think is that John Bogle has chosen a life of service to others instead of, or in addition to, personal wealth. I ...
by Fallible
Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article--The reason Jack Bogle doesn’t fly first class says everything about his investing legacy
Replies: 51
Views: 3853

Re: Article--The reason Jack Bogle doesn’t fly first class says everything about his investing legacy

What says everything about Jack Bogle to me is his understsnding of investor (human) behavior and, therefore, knowing what's best for most small investors. In this interview, it comes out here (boldface mine), although I would like to have seen Jack directly quoted: Bogle and I don't agree completel...
by Fallible
Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE over 30
Replies: 17
Views: 1364

Re: Shiller PE over 30

Shiller PE is over 30 now. Does it even matter? If so, what action should be taken if any? Or just sit back, watch, and stay the course? Why would you not stay the course? Too much risk? Did you see Shiller's article in the NYT yesterday? https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/15/business/stock-market-mas...
by Fallible
Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2587
Views: 819427

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Something I just picked up at Costco: Classic Horror Tales (World Cloud Classics), Editors of Canterbury Classics. The binding is described as "Flexibound" which is a soft, comfortable, leather-like binding. It is approximately 5x8 and at 454 pages is just over an inch thick. Unfortunately, no Illu...
by Fallible
Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6625

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

Hurricanes, North Korea, Washington dysfunction, maybe a DOW bubble, so is it time for some protection? OK selling equities and buying bonds is not staying the course. But what about selling some of that total bond market fund and buying say five year Treasuries. Is anyone willing to accept a loss ...
by Fallible
Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think
Replies: 49
Views: 5506

Re: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think

What I struggle with now is the dichotomy between need to take risk and ability/willingness to take risk. Relatively low need and relatively high ability to take risk is a typical situation for someone whose financial capital is high relative to residual living expenses (either actual or expected i...
by Fallible
Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice Badly Needed---Meeting with Financial Advisor
Replies: 49
Views: 3768

Re: Advice Badly Needed---Meeting with Financial Advisor

OP, I'm impressed by how you managed to stand your ground against this scum, even though you were totally unprepared for the meeting and unsure of yourself. You're a rare breed. Yes, I thought that, too, and add my congrats to the OP for a healthy skepticism, which will be needed for all things thr...
by Fallible
Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market
Replies: 41
Views: 4168

Re: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market

... I then spoke with a rep from Fidelity asking them why they show, by default, a comparison of a mixed stock/bond portfolio to the S&P. The rep admitted that it could be quite misleading and basically empathized. ... Did the Fidelity rep say why they do this by default and apparently with no expl...
by Fallible
Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The true cost of Luxury
Replies: 32
Views: 3604

Re: The true cost of Luxury

... This, according to the marketing expert, is how the industry can "command their incredible pricing power and margins." And it seemingly doesn't matter if the products are actually made in China or Transylvania. As long as the image of "heritage, country and craftsmanship" is continuously reaffi...
by Fallible
Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market
Replies: 41
Views: 4168

Re: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market

More than conviction - self-discipline and patience i.e., emotional control, are needed to stay the course as years of underperfance go by. How does one know for certain going in that they have that control, even if they have chosen a wise course? Well IMO education is the best way to position your...
by Fallible
Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market
Replies: 41
Views: 4168

Re: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market

I agree with that tracking error is not the proper term for what is being discussed. We are talking about "extended periods of under performance" when comparing our portfolio to a different benchmark that may or may not be appropriate. And yes I think this is really an issue worth discussing becaus...
by Fallible
Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market
Replies: 41
Views: 4168

Re: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market

... I then spoke with a rep from Fidelity asking them why they show, by default, a comparison of a mixed stock/bond portfolio to the S&P. The rep admitted that it could be quite misleading and basically empathized. ... Did the Fidelity rep say why they do this by default and apparently with no expl...
by Fallible
Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Herd mentality
Replies: 40
Views: 1839

Re: Herd mentality

I have had a few of these conversations. I mostly see that folks don't actually know how other strategies performed compared to their own strategy or what their advisor did for them. It was not unusual to hear someone say, "My stocks were up 10% last year" when in fact the S&P 500 was up 15%. I hea...
by Fallible
Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: New Passive Criticism Fails
Replies: 58
Views: 2992

Re: Larry Swedroe: New Passive Criticism Fails

If only active management would stop picking on passive and just lower its fees ... Thanks for the link. I liked this perspective from Larry (the numbers are almost amusing): Clearly, we aren’t at the point where markets have become inefficient due to a lack of price discovery efforts. But that migh...
by Fallible
Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Herd mentality
Replies: 40
Views: 1839

Re: Herd mentality

... I mentioned all of these crashes from 1929 on up but they insisted after those crashes the market keeps going up. It always goes up. I really didn't know how to respond to this because I mean the Dow is at its all-time high so I guess overtime it does. What am I missing here? To eliminate risk ...
by Fallible
Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market
Replies: 41
Views: 4168

Re: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market

selftalk wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:20 pm
Fallable, telling them is 1 thing experiencing it is something else. It`s real tough to do.
Right. As Buffett said, "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
by Fallible
Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market
Replies: 41
Views: 4168

Re: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market

... My question would be what percentage of people would have the staying power to keep on accumulating shares over a long time all the while not seeing a rise in prices never knowing when the bull would come and also seeing the S&P 500 rising all the while ? ... My question: Shouldn't these invest...
by Fallible
Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2939
Views: 864071

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Finally watched The Manchurian Candidate , the 2004 version directed by Jonathan Demme. I'd held off seeing it because I'd read it was quite different from the '62 version which I liked. Needn't have worried because both are excellent. One thing that surprised me was Meryl Streep's performance, whic...
by Fallible
Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2939
Views: 864071

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

madbrain wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:44 am
Just came back from watching "9/11". This is a fictional story. There is some decent acting with Whoopi Goldberg and Charlie Sheen, but I had a really hard time with some of the racist lines. I recommend skipping this one.
A very good 9/11 film is United 93.
by Fallible
Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book Recommendation: Think, Act, & Invest Like Warren Buffett
Replies: 2
Views: 441

Re: Book Recommendation: Think, Act, & Invest Like Warren Buffett

I bought the book because Larry wrote that "while Buffett is widely admired, the majority of investors not only fail to consider his advice, but tend to do exactly the opposite of what he recommends." (Italics are his, boldface mine.) He then shows whether people have followed Buffett's advice on in...
by Fallible
Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think
Replies: 49
Views: 5506

Re: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think

White Coat Investor wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:26 pm
Nothing like your first big bear market to figure out your risk tolerance.
Ah, yes, although bears can differ greatly and one may be easier to tolerate than another depending on individual differences. Then, too, individual risk tolerance changes often. What fun, being human.
by Fallible
Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think
Replies: 49
Views: 5506

Re: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think

Statman nicely clarifies the concepts of risk, regret, fear, and overconfidence and shows in good detail how the questionnaires mistakenly lump them together under risk. And he’s right that lowering portfolio risk can mean missing goals, especially retirement goals (although taking on too much risk ...
by Fallible
Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actually feeling pretty good about my active decisions
Replies: 20
Views: 2549

Re: Actually feeling pretty good about my active decisions

Mostly due to the influence of this forum, I'm mainly a passive index investor. I don't believe I can pick stocks or time bull/bear markets. However, I have made a few active ETF bets and thus far have been really pleased. ... Glad you did well, but being "really pleased" and "feeling pretty good" ...
by Fallible
Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Don't know where to start at all
Replies: 21
Views: 1685

Re: Don't know where to start at all

Welcome!

You've asked good questions and most of the answers will be on the wiki's "Getting Started" page:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started
by Fallible
Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much weight do you put on back-testing?
Replies: 53
Views: 3271

Re: How much weight do you put on back-testing?

Adding to Taylor's post that includes Jason Zweig on backtesting, there is more from Zweig in his book The Devil's Financial Dictionary . He first has a little fun with it, but goes on to provide the pros and cons, saying backtesting can be legitimate, but too often is "designed to find any techniqu...
by Fallible
Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wife believes 7+% returns from stock market are guaranteed
Replies: 64
Views: 5612

Re: Wife believes 7+% returns from stock market are guaranteed

JBTX wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:15 pm
It really depends on the context of what exactly was said. ...
Agree. It's also why I asked the OP whether his wife used the word "guarantee" and if so, whether he asked her what she based it on, which would seem to be the first question to ask of anyone saying anything was guaranteed.
by Fallible
Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "36 Obvious Investment Truths"
Replies: 18
Views: 2608

Re: "36 Obvious Investment Truths".

As Ben Carslson says of his 36 "simple and obvious" truths: The obvious stuff is often the first casualty of the firehose of information, noise, opinions, predictions, and analysis out there these days Thanks for the link. All investors, including Bogleheads, will always need to be reminded of the o...
by Fallible
Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wife believes 7+% returns from stock market are guaranteed
Replies: 64
Views: 5612

Re: Wife believes 7+% returns from stock market are guaranteed

My wife and I argue a lot about how to invest our money. I am more conservative while she is riskier. Recently we bought a house with all cash. She thinks we should have got a mortgage and put our money in the stock market. My response is if stock market guarantees 7+% returns then why do banks len...
by Fallible
Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help adjusting my investments
Replies: 6
Views: 342

Re: Help adjusting my investments

... I'm not sure what my desired allocations should be right now for this purpose. My wife and I make about the same amount of money and work at the same company and she would like to do the same ... The wiki's "Asset Allocation" and "Risk Tolerance" pages can help you and your wife determine your ...
by Fallible
Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did Charmin UltraSoft TP become "UltraThin"?
Replies: 61
Views: 3713

Re: Did Charmin UltraSoft TP become "UltraThin"?

It's called "Shrinkflation". In economics, shrinkflation is the process of items shrinking in size or quantity while their prices remain the same or increase. Ain't economics grand? https://www.google.com/search?q=shrinkflation&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8 Thanks, I now have a word for the downsizing of not o...
by Fallible
Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Passive Investing Misconceptions
Replies: 5
Views: 1454

Re: Larry Swedroe: Passive Investing Misconceptions

It seems no matter how many times active management argues against passive investing, the arguments are pretty much the same, such as the one from from Marks contending that passive investors "surrender the possibility of outperforming the market." Those active arguments and more will surely continu...
by Fallible
Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:16 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?
Replies: 255
Views: 16133

Re: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?

I think the most interesting conversations take place when people engage with those who have very contrasting and challenging views and a civil and productive means of discussing them (like this forum). Yes, I agree. We receive extremely helpful information and suggestions on all things financial w...
by Fallible
Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Book Recommendations: Nutrition / Psychology
Replies: 27
Views: 1940

Re: Book Recommendations: Nutrition / Psychology

Also not a doctor, but I would start with an overall view of nutrition from reputable sources such as the Mayo Clinic. Here's Mayo's site on nutrition, which includes inexpensive books: http://www.mayoclinic.org/healthy-lifestyle/nutrition-and-healthy-eating/basics/nutrition-basics/hlv-20049477 As f...
by Fallible
Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why can't the future of stocks be predicted
Replies: 61
Views: 3193

Re: Why can't the future of stocks be predicted

In his classic book, Winning the Loser's Game (7th ed.), Charles Ellis pretty much sums up stock market predictions in a chapter, "Predicting the Market - Roughly." "Predicting the stock market roughly is not hard, but predicting it accurately is truly impossible. Equally, predicting approximately w...
by Fallible
Sun Sep 03, 2017 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for advice on portfolio restructuring
Replies: 4
Views: 424

Re: Looking for advice on portfolio restructuring

... I can see my investments are spread out into too many funds/stocks, I know I are keeping too much cash and feel my investments are not generating regular income. But I am worried that my exposure to market is too high and if enter now and market crashes I will loose good chunk of money (had bee...
by Fallible
Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why can't the future of stocks be predicted
Replies: 61
Views: 3193

Re: Why can't the future of stocks be predicted

Some reasons why from "Harvard Business Review": The future, like any complex problem, has far too many variables to be predicted. Quantitative models, historical models, even psychic models have all been tried — and have all failed. Just imagine predicting something far simpler than the future of t...
by Fallible
Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Article: By Jonathan Clements
Replies: 1
Views: 674

Re: Article: By Jonathan Clements

timmy wrote:
Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:13 am
http://www.humbledollar.com/2017/09/out-of-my-mind/

My favorite PF writer.
His website is awesome.
Thanks for the link. I enjoyed all of his topics though a few were a bit sobering, such as the limited success of financial education and the large role of luck in investing.
by Fallible
Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?
Replies: 255
Views: 16133

Re: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?

Those posts get into charts and formulas that I find totally uninteresting and an unBoglehead; they scare the newbies into the arms of the Edward Jones. Maybe that is their intention. Inadequate knowledge is what drives people into the arms of Edward Jones, not more knowledge. This is incorrect for...
by Fallible
Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?
Replies: 255
Views: 16133

Re: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?

I agree. This place is a very tight sandbox and there are a ton of investing related topics that could have a major impact on all bogleheads that you're not even allowed to discuss(the federal reserve, for a mild example). Members with different opinions from the norm are not tolerated and often ha...
by Fallible
Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:15 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?
Replies: 255
Views: 16133

Re: Is Bogelheads getting less interesting?

Maybe it’s because a number of the questions have been asked previously. After all it has been ten years since the Forum inception (even longer if you consider the old Diehards hangout at Morningstar). More than 213,000 topics have been posted thus far. Just today “livesoft” responded to a question...
by Fallible
Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:44 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?
Replies: 255
Views: 16133

Re: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?

I joined this forum about three years ago when my wife got a significant inheritance and we were trying to figure out what to do with it. I found it to be an invaluable resource, and I probably check the site a few times a week to check the posts, occasionally comment and/or start a new thread. I h...