Search found 920 matches

by Engineer250
Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP - How to get better international coverage
Replies: 6
Views: 543

Re: TSP - How to get better international coverage

You can wait until 2019 like stated above. If you don't have significant assets in your non-TSP accounts this is probably the way to go. Otherwise, if you have enough money in a Roth IRA, see the Bogleheads wiki on approximating total international: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Approximating_tota...
by Engineer250
Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1261583

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Just saw this on CNBC. Ignoring the silly headline, the "why" of the drop is interesting and seems as good a theory as any. Until I find a better theory I like. :wink: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/08/cramer-this-market-is-like-a-similar-version-of-2008-crisis.html In 2017, a record year for the stoc...
by Engineer250
Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1261583

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

No one rings a bell when the market turns like it did a couple of weeks ago. What I have done is mild rebalancing with very tight rebalancing bands since July 2013. I got my stock allocation from 69% down to 66% before this correction or whatever it is. Doesn't sound like much but I would have been...
by Engineer250
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1261583

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

on the bright side, i chose to pay off my car in full rather than dump 20K in January 1st, so that's cool. Yes, it makes my DW's and my decision to rapidly accelerate our mortgage schedule early seem a bit more attractive since that money would otherwise have gone into stocks. That makes you lucky,...
by Engineer250
Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1261583

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm deeply amused that folks on this thread seem to view this thread like the majority of folks view the stock market - paying too much attention to the noise. See these two posts and similar: I've learned a lot about many of the posters in this thread over the past couple of days. They are expert ...
by Engineer250
Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stealing from the kids for our retirement [High valuations => depressed future returns expectations]
Replies: 54
Views: 5305

Re: Stealing from the kids for our retirement [High valuations => depressed future returns expectations]

Perhaps. On the other hand, they'll live longer so their education will pay off longer. And while I, too, hate the annual period of holding my breath to see how much health care will go up, what you get has gone up too. Even in just the last generation, the ability of modern medicine to prevent, cu...
by Engineer250
Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1261583

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm deeply amused that folks on this thread seem to view this thread like the majority of folks view the stock market - paying too much attention to the noise. See these two posts and similar: I've learned a lot about many of the posters in this thread over the past couple of days. They are expert o...
by Engineer250
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1261583

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

vanguard.com is down.... Yes it is....sigh...great timing. there's a market timing joke in here somewhere... Actually, I find all of these comments about buying today to be quite funny. The Boglehead philosophy says "don't time the market," yet many here are shoving far more into the market today t...
by Engineer250
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1261583

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

What a pathetic dip. We couldn't even maintain a 5% decline for more than a few minutes. ZZZZZ ZZZZZ ZZZZZ Exactly my thinking. Too many people excited to buy on a dip (were they excited when these were the prices a few months ago?) I don’t see any real bears. Just bulls who want a bear to buy in on.
by Engineer250
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1261583

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Market weights and index funds for me. I enjoy following along but there’s nothing for me to do. I don’t have a big pot of cash on the sidelines (just my emergency fund, which is staying cash, and pretty meager compared to my retirement accounts anyways). My 401k/IRA money goes in Tuesday and Wednes...
by Engineer250
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1261583

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Watch 10 year treasure yield. If it's above 3%, I would be cautious. If it's above 3.5%, I would sell equity and get into 3.5% bond. Safety is always no 1. Vanguard predict next 10 years average return at 4.5%. 3.5% secure return or 4.5% projected return . Equity investor demand more than 1.0% prem...
by Engineer250
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why do many bogleheads feel they can time the housing market but can't time the stock market?
Replies: 63
Views: 4582

Re: Why do many bogleheads feel they can time the housing market but can't time the stock market?

I'm amazed to see people doubting the premise of OP's comment--that lots of people on this board think they can predict housing prices. Go to literally any thread on housing in a VHCOL area and you will see this. A post that asks: "stocks seem expensive--should I buy now or what for a crash?" will ...
by Engineer250
Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1261583

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

It's just normal correction.. I sure hope not. Need at least a 30% market decline to make stocks at all attractive for the long run. I think so. A 30% correction and start from there with 7 to 8% annual return seems more sustainable. But people (include many BH) believe quick money. As soon I see m...
by Engineer250
Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1261583

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

It's just normal correction. makes market more healthier. I always smile when I see these theories. Reminds me of medicine in the Middle Ages, when it was believed that leeches and bloodletting were therapeutic: Bloodletting (or blood-letting) is the withdrawal of blood from a patient to prevent or...
by Engineer250
Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calling it right now.
Replies: 18
Views: 3575

Re: Calling it right now.

And here's how they could do it. GE is the leading manufacturer of diesel-electric locomotives, with about 60% market share. When braking, these locomotives reverse the function of the traction motors, which then convert huge amounts of kinetic energy into electricity, something like 700 amps at 60...
by Engineer250
Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1261583

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

It's just normal correction. makes market more healthier. I always smile when I see these theories. Reminds me of medicine in the Middle Ages, when it was believed that leeches and bloodletting were therapeutic: Bloodletting (or blood-letting) is the withdrawal of blood from a patient to prevent or...
by Engineer250
Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard REIT fund changes objective, name & index
Replies: 15
Views: 2285

Re: Vanguard REIT fund changes objective, name & index

Wasn't this part of the changes everyone was voting on last summer? Also I thought they were going to make a new fund that tracked the old index for people who wanted to keep the old make-up? I hold 3-Fund + REIT at 10%. Some days I wonder why I bothered and ponder if it's time to get out of it. But...
by Engineer250
Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1261583

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

It's my fault. Yesterday I invested the second half of our 2018 backdoor Roth IRA contributions, our taxable account investments for February and started UTMA brokerage accounts for both my kids. I was wondering who was responsible. Well my 401k and Roth IRA money from my paycheck will be going in ...
by Engineer250
Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1261583

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

PugetSoundguy wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:12 am
At least the federal Thrift Savings Plan G-fund rate went up to 2.75% today (up from January rate of 2.375%).
I saw that! I think might be the highest rate in 4 or 5 years?
by Engineer250
Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help! Insurance company wants new roof after closing!
Replies: 20
Views: 3061

Re: Help! Insurance company wants new roof after closing!

Had some shady insurer you've never heard of when we bought mid subprime crisis. After a few years they apparently sent someone by my house and told me they were cancelling my home owners policy due to the condition of my roof (!). Called Geico, State Farm, Farmer's etc. Everyone was either ridiculo...
by Engineer250
Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k millionaires
Replies: 158
Views: 23626

Re: 401k millionaires

This data is hard to come by, and it's rare that anyone puts it together in a comprehensive format that allows one to look at it this way. I remember some data (because I had the same question, and your situation seems to corresponds with mine fairly closely) that among 45-49 year olds, earning abo...
by Engineer250
Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity index with less than 2500 minimum?
Replies: 13
Views: 1425

Re: Fidelity index with less than 2500 minimum?

Just a thought but what about considering Schwab? Low expenses and funds with minimum of $100 Started my Roth at Schwab for this reason. Was able to set up monthly contributions that were around $50 or something pretty low and invest in Schwab’s Total Us stock market. At VG now (largely because my ...
by Engineer250
Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Wall Street to Vanguard: We’re Not Your Doormat [Fidelity charging some plans to hold Vanguard funds]
Replies: 63
Views: 10451

Re: Wall Street to Vanguard: We’re Not Your Doormat

Have a Vanguard 401k with awful funds chosen by my employer/some stupid third party FA. I pay $50 a year to invest outside the plan which lets me access Vanguard funds. Currently I think that’s about 0.6% of my 401k with VG. Obviously it will get less over time, but paying to access more affordable ...
by Engineer250
Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity charging extra fee for Vanguard funds in 401k?
Replies: 31
Views: 2279

Re: Fidelity charging extra fee for Vanguard funds in 401k?

I have Vanguard for a plan administrator and most of the funds are total crap. They have great target date funds and VG Russell 1000 and 2000 but everything else is non-VG and expensive. I sent an email to the HR person that handles it suggesting VG Total International, VG Emerging and VG Total Bon...
by Engineer250
Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity charging extra fee for Vanguard funds in 401k?
Replies: 31
Views: 2279

Re: Fidelity charging extra fee for Vanguard funds in 401k?

I have Vanguard for a plan administrator and most of the funds are total crap. They have great target date funds and VG Russell 1000 and 2000 but everything else is non-VG and expensive. I sent an email to the HR person that handles it suggesting VG Total International, VG Emerging and VG Total Bond...
by Engineer250
Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio size needed to reach each tax bracket in retirement
Replies: 19
Views: 2483

Re: Portfolio size needed to reach each tax bracket in retirement

I think it's informative. I'm wondering if you could backtrack out a bit to portfolio sizes at different ages. Obviously some assumptions would have to be involved... But say you are looking at the $2.5M filling up a 12% tax bracket. If you assume some percentage of return (6% or whatever people are...
by Engineer250
Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If we worry about interest rate/ inflation, why don't we buy Short-Term bond ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1718

Re: If we worry about interest rate/ inflation, why don't we buy Short-Term bond ?

Why/why not? I’m trying to figure out what the upsides of carrying a mortgage into a higher rate or higher inflation environment are. The mortgage is nominal. You have to pay, say, $1,000 a month, no matter how much $1,000 in today's dollars is worth in the future. If there is inflation, $1,000 is ...
by Engineer250
Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k millionaires
Replies: 158
Views: 23626

Re: 401k millionaires

I maxed out my 401k from when I was first eligible to get one (at 20) and still do (at 50). This included a range from when I was single through married, no kids, though married with two kids. During that time my income ranged from below median, to median, to 3x median as my career progressed. Howe...
by Engineer250
Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If we worry about interest rate/ inflation, why don't we buy Short-Term bond ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1718

Re: If we worry about interest rate/ inflation, why don't we buy Short-Term bond ?

I only see people in this forum talked about Intermediate tax exempt bond, not the Vanguard Short-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Investor Shares (VWSTX). isn't it better to buy short term bond due to interest rate set to rise? HenrysPlan2, If you worry about interest rate/inflation, do not pay off your 30 ye...
by Engineer250
Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1261583

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Was just thinking the same thing the other day. Wishing for another 40% drop. As long as I don't lose my job of course! A 40% drop would take the S&P 500's Shiller PE down from a crazy-high 34 to a much more reasonable 20. I could see it happening. As someone who wants to buy low of course it's app...
by Engineer250
Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If we worry about interest rate/ inflation, why don't we buy Short-Term bond ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1718

Re: If we worry about interest rate/ inflation, why don't we buy Short-Term bond ?

I only see people in this forum talked about Intermediate tax exempt bond, not the Vanguard Short-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Investor Shares (VWSTX). isn't it better to buy short term bond due to interest rate set to rise? HenrysPlan2, If you worry about interest rate/inflation, do not pay off your 30 ye...
by Engineer250
Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thrift Savings Plan to Change I Fund Index
Replies: 14
Views: 2322

Re: Thrift Savings Plan to Change I Fund Index

Adding to this. The FRTIB posted their November meeting minutes this week so I'll take that as an official statement. https://www.frtib.gov/MeetingMinutes/2017/2017Nov.pdf The target date for the change would be some time in 2019. Thanks for posting! But doesn't the FRTIB know I'm too excited/impat...
by Engineer250
Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dear wife quits job and now we are down to 1 income
Replies: 190
Views: 16220

Re: Dear wife quits job and now we are down to 1 income

+1! I would in fact go ahead and generalize it to "Bogleheads have a chip on their shoulders about expensive homes." Back when polls were permitted, there was a poll that suggested that - IIRC (my memory might be playing tricks with me) - the typical Boglehead house cost about 1.5 to 2 times the an...
by Engineer250
Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Working in the real world
Replies: 118
Views: 8770

Re: Working in the real world

Nevertheless the claims that people make for their incomes and benefits are so out of line with my experience that I sometimes question them. I have a BS and MS in engineering and an MBA in MIS. Also an engineer. Someone else said what I'd say "comparison is the thief of joy". But I feel you. I liv...
by Engineer250
Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: spouse social security after divorce
Replies: 6
Views: 892

Re: spouse social security after divorce

Also did you keep any rights to her pension in your divorce settlement or give it up?

EDIT: I misread. Be sure to consider your rights to her pension while working out the divorce.
by Engineer250
Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: spouse social security after divorce
Replies: 6
Views: 892

Re: spouse social security after divorce

Are you sure she doesn’t pay into social security? That would imply she is on the older CSRS retirement system (pre ‘80s I think) versus the new FERS system. FERS employees do pay into social security.
by Engineer250
Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Discussing a 529 with your kids
Replies: 79
Views: 5359

Re: Discussing a 529 with your kids

On the major selection topic- I went back to school for a second time on my own dime while working to get my engineering degree. My parents paid for a state school while I lived at home and a liberal arts degree that I thought was employable but wasn’t. I suggest people sit down with their kids and ...
by Engineer250
Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 123
Views: 15366

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

I don’t have any interest in buying individual stock. But I’d love to be the next CEO of GE trying to turn it around. Sounds like a fascinating challenge. GE board members can PM me 8-)
by Engineer250
Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP's F Fund outperforms the G Fund, so why is the G Fund favored?
Replies: 34
Views: 2348

Re: TSP's F Fund outperforms the G Fund, so why is the G Fund favored?

I've got nothing. Let me just say I read the entirety of The Bond Book by Annette Thau (an exceptional, very detailed book), and if you were to ask her which of these two funds would she recommend, I haven't a doubt in my mind Annette would say 100% G (vs. F) any day of the week. A ~ 7 year treasur...
by Engineer250
Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1261583

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Guess the stock market was really troubled by the impending government shutdown today. Oh wait never mind. :twisted:
by Engineer250
Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP's F Fund outperforms the G Fund, so why is the G Fund favored?
Replies: 34
Views: 2348

Re: TSP's F Fund outperforms the G Fund, so why is the G Fund favored?

If I were younger (and I am) and had access to the G fund (I do not) I would not put 10% into the G fund. What are you going to do with it? Rebalance in an equity crash, a flight to quality situation, most likely. The G fund will not appreciate when interest rates fall (which since 2000 has tended ...
by Engineer250
Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP's F Fund outperforms the G Fund, so why is the G Fund favored?
Replies: 34
Views: 2348

Re: TSP's F Fund outperforms the G Fund, so why is the G Fund favored?

The G Fund is one of the only "free lunches" around. Unlike the F Fund, the G Fund has no credit risk, no duration risk, and is subject only to upward volatility. It's essentially cash with the yield of an intermediate term bond fund. Investors may hold "less" of the G Fund to achieve the same leve...
by Engineer250
Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Federal pension Vs Higher salary + 401k savings plan
Replies: 35
Views: 3237

Re: Federal pension Vs Higher salary + 401k savings plan

Stan I’d retired just after the ability to convert some SL to creditable time, but had to use quite a bit for surgeries and recovery over the prior few years, and the resultant addition was almost negligible, so I do understand (I’d had over 2k hours of SL before then). But even then, over 2k hours...
by Engineer250
Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Federal pension Vs Higher salary + 401k savings plan
Replies: 35
Views: 3237

Re: Federal pension Vs Higher salary + 401k savings plan

I left the private sector for a fed job. The commute was worse. But more importantly, the pace of everything was agonizingly slow. I felt like nothing I did mattered. I thought I could handle a more laid back job, but turns out I could not. After two years I returned to private industry. Everyone ha...
by Engineer250
Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 96
Views: 10951

Re: 70% chance of correction according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

Ah, but it's possible the 10% correction could start 20% higher than where we are now. :wink: And if it were to happen tomorrow, a 10% correction in the US market would only take us back to the beginning of October 2017, a little over 3 months ago. Amazing, really. Vanguard Total Stock Market Index...
by Engineer250
Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 96
Views: 10951

Re: 70% chance of correction according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

Ah, but it's possible the 10% correction could start 20% higher than where we are now. :wink: And if it were to happen tomorrow, a 10% correction in the US market would only take us back to the beginning of October 2017, a little over 3 months ago. Amazing, really. Vanguard Total Stock Market Index...
by Engineer250
Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 114
Views: 10104

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Nobody know nuthin’. Predictions of the exact time frame of the next crash (Bitcoin or anything else) are worthless. +1 I find it highly amusing that many on this forum love to spout about the folly of active investing and trying to time the market, but then in the next breath they call Bitcoin and...
by Engineer250
Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A question that keeps coming to my head
Replies: 13
Views: 1136

Re: A question that keeps coming to my head

1 - in general very few people on here recommend someone be 100% equities, but there are plenty for whom S&P 500 makes up their entire equity portfolio. 2 - this is a really odd slice and dice portfolio. What led you to the percentages you picked? Why? When you say “real assets” are you suggesting t...
by Engineer250
Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd
Replies: 94
Views: 7669

Re: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd

What a strange thing to say. I spend time on Bogleheads because it is interesting and I continue to learn things. It isn’t as if once you retire, even with adequate savings and income, that you are somehow home free. And because I hope I can provide information/suggestions to others who post questi...
by Engineer250
Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd
Replies: 94
Views: 7669

Re: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd

What I am looking for are behavioral signs. What specific behaviors do you observe that make that light bulb go off in your head? 2018 will be a big increase for me in retirement contributions. Therefore, I know it won’t be a down year because then I could be buying at a discount. I think other tha...