Search found 303 matches

by Elbowman
Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil Slump ---- VGENX/FSENX? [Vanguard / Fidelity Energy Fund]
Replies: 27
Views: 2225

Re: OIL SLUMP ---- VGENX/FSENX?

"The horse-drawn carriage market is in a slump! Should I jump in? I'm a long term investor, so I can easily wait for it to recover..."

Oil prices COULD recover, but I see no reason why they MUST recover.
by Elbowman
Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there such thing as a buying opportunity?
Replies: 31
Views: 2315

Re: Is there such thing as a buying opportunity?

It is possible to believe that 1) Tiger Woods exists and 2) for nearly all people it would be a mistake to try and make their fortune as a professional golfer. You don't need to believe the market is perfectly efficient to be a Boglehead. You just need to understand that most people who try to beat ...
by Elbowman
Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will continued growth of passive funds hurt returns?
Replies: 6
Views: 454

Re: Will continued growth of passive funds hurt returns?

I don't think so. In the long run, stock returns come from companies making a profit, which has nothing to with whether their stock is actively or passively held.
by Elbowman
Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the Bay Area housing market efficient?
Replies: 14
Views: 1354

Re: Is the Bay Area housing market efficient?

The529guy wrote:$88k sale price in 2003 seems like a huge outlier.
Yes, I admit I only saw one of those, it really shook me up though! $200k sale price in early 2000s is much more common, and a reversion to $200k from $800k wouldn't be much better than $88k.
by Elbowman
Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the Bay Area housing market efficient?
Replies: 14
Views: 1354

Re: Is the Bay Area housing market efficient?

Thanks everyone! Perhaps efficient was the wrong word. I am worried that a particular housing market may lack some of the mechanisms which are used in the stock market (short selling) and create downward pressure. I suppose building housing is like short selling, but there are lots of restrictions o...
by Elbowman
Tue Dec 15, 2015 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the Bay Area housing market efficient?
Replies: 14
Views: 1354

Is the Bay Area housing market efficient?

I have completely come to terms with the stock and bond markets; that the current price is the best estimate of the future value, and that any attempts by me time the market would most likely be a mistake. I'm having trouble transferring this faith in the market the houses my fiancee and I are consi...
by Elbowman
Tue Dec 15, 2015 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 3M (MMM)
Replies: 39
Views: 4412

Re: Thoughts on 3M (MMM)

I've been a long term hold on 3M. Today they are having a down day (~-5%) so it seems like a good chance to pick up more shares. I'd like to hear some folks thoughts on 3M as a investment. Note, I am 30yo with around $100K in 401K and IRAs. Currently maybe 4-5% of my holdings are in 3M. I know we d...
by Elbowman
Tue Dec 15, 2015 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 3M (MMM)
Replies: 39
Views: 4412

Re: Thoughts on 3M (MMM)

Looks like you have been on this board for a while, long enough to know what our replies will be :D . As an investor, you are taking on risk in exchange for expected returns. Your ability to take risk is limited, and so you should make sure that all risk you take on when investing is compensated. In...
by Elbowman
Thu Dec 03, 2015 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Equities Overpriced?
Replies: 58
Views: 5017

Re: Are Equities Overpriced?

I think there is general agreement that 10-30 year nominal equity returns will not be as high as their historical averages. However, equity (expected) returns are higher than any of the alternatives, so I don't think there is much to do besides sit tight and perhaps save more.
by Elbowman
Fri Oct 23, 2015 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Allocation - HELP!
Replies: 11
Views: 733

Re: 401K Allocation - HELP!

So, it's always a reasonable decision to use the lowest cost funds available to you to approximate a Target Retirement Fund with a stock/bond split that you like. These are mostly Three Fund Portfolios (https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio) with the stock portion divided 60/40 betwee...
by Elbowman
Tue Oct 06, 2015 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with liquidation.
Replies: 8
Views: 514

Re: Help with liquidation.

I mainly am curious about this after reading several examples where the "hold & grow" method of traditional investing isn't the most rewarding. Could you provide us with some links to these examples, so we could take a look at them? There is overwhelming evidence to the contrary, so I...
by Elbowman
Mon Aug 10, 2015 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Front-End Loads: Are They Really THAT Big of a Deal?
Replies: 60
Views: 4767

Re: Front-End Loads: Are They Really THAT Big of a Deal?

sawhorse wrote:A 0.6% expense ratio is frowned upon here. When people say it's not that terrible, it's almost always in the context of employer retirement plans where you don't have a choice.
Exactly. People here would flip out just as much over anyone choosing 0.6% ER when they have better options.
by Elbowman
Mon Jul 13, 2015 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If I am 25 years from retirement
Replies: 20
Views: 1571

Re: If I am 25 years from retirement

The most important thing is to stick to your plan through any big market drops ! An all in one fund will rebalance for you. Owning the subfunds may require some rebalancing on your part, but has expenses. You have to judge how likely you are to do rebalancing as needed, and whether it will stress y...
by Elbowman
Tue Jun 16, 2015 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cost difference
Replies: 27
Views: 2353

Re: Cost difference

livesoft wrote:Is 60% bigger than 40%?
IMO, it's close enough to $60 that your responses are unnecessarily harsh.
by Elbowman
Tue May 12, 2015 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 1711

Re: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds

On this forum and others, people claim that gold has a place in one's portfolio because it is a hedge against risks like collapse, government violation of property rights, etc. (I know that there many be other reasons to hold gold, but I want to focus on this one.) Of course you can focus on that r...
by Elbowman
Wed Apr 01, 2015 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Lifestrategy "Aggressive"
Replies: 13
Views: 1686

Re: Vanguard Lifestrategy "Aggressive"

"You're not taking any of the money out ... so you don't need to buffer your portfolio with bonds" - YES "You're not planning on taking any of the money out ... so you don't plan to need to buffer your portfolio with bonds" - YES You're not planning on taking any of the money out...
by Elbowman
Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should a BH investor never use futures/options?
Replies: 70
Views: 5562

Re: Should a BH investor never use futures/options?

Just like active management, options are a true zero-sum game, meaning the expected return of all parties after transaction costs is always negative. This is not mentioned enough! You are playing a negative-sum game (after costs) against professionals. That should be all you need to know to discard...
by Elbowman
Sun Mar 22, 2015 1:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Math majors needed in here for loan interest rates thoughts
Replies: 36
Views: 2779

Re: Math majors needed in here for loan interest rates thoug

I'd like to assume for the scenario that stocks will perform at 5% or better, basically better than the interest of an auto loan. Yes, if you start with the unreasonable assumption that you can count on stock returns being greater than 5% for the duration of a car loan , you will arrive at the conc...
by Elbowman
Mon Mar 09, 2015 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's Wrong With This Portfolio ?
Replies: 6
Views: 705

Re: What's Wrong With This Portfolio ?

+1 for "good enough". I think the bar for unsolicited advice should be pretty high, especially for people you care to maintain a relationship with. If the portfolio was 50% hedge funds and 50% whole life, then yes, I'd say something. I'd probably even venture a cautious comment if the enti...
by Elbowman
Mon Mar 09, 2015 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will you buy an Apple Watch?
Replies: 456
Views: 40128

Re: Will you buy an Apple Watch?

Not until I see a "killer app".
by Elbowman
Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA target fund
Replies: 6
Views: 691

Re: IRA target fund

To add to what RadAudit said, the moral of the story is not "if the target date fund won't give me 8%, I'll find something that will". TD funds are reasonably aggressive in terms of risk reward balance, and if that is not enough to meet your goals given your current savings it is much safe...
by Elbowman
Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett/Hedge Fund Bet - Protege Partners' Excuses!
Replies: 34
Views: 3119

Re: Buffett/Hedge Fund Bet - Protege Partners' Excuses!

Taylor Larimore wrote:Gabriel:

Thank you for the link showing that it is dangerous to make a long-term bet against an index fund.

Best wishes.
Taylor
1) Never get involved in a land war in Asia.
2) Never make a long-term bet against an index fund.
3) Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line.
by Elbowman
Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: larry portfolio vs 3 fund portfolio last 2 years
Replies: 16
Views: 2870

Re: larry portfolio vs 3 fund portfolio last 2 years

Hopefully you will be repaid in the next crash!
by Elbowman
Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Only bonds in tax-advantaged accounts,but what about growth?
Replies: 8
Views: 1442

Re: Only bonds in tax-advantaged accounts,but what about gro

The tax efficiency guide does not state to put only bonds in tax-advantaged accounts. Many people read it that way, but ALL asset classes can go into tax-advantaged accounts. +1. You would prefer to have everything in tax-advantaged accounts (assuming you are retiring after 59), TSM and TISM are ju...
by Elbowman
Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K changing Pimco Tot Ret to VG Int Term Bond Index. OK?
Replies: 17
Views: 1562

Re: 401K changing Pimco Tot Ret to VG Int Term Bond Index. O

Gort wrote:Is VBIIX a good core holding?
Yes. A lot of the people here who think TBM is too heavy in treasuries actually like VBIIX more.
by Elbowman
Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom
Replies: 46
Views: 2264

Re: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom

What does skill have to do with a margin call?
by Elbowman
Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you using a Martingale strategy and don't know it?
Replies: 28
Views: 2436

Re: Are you using a Martingale strategy and don't know it?

Isn't rebalancing in a crashing market martingale-ish? You keep doubling down, and it will work every time until your country or economic system finishes its run and things actually go to zero? At least for domestic investing, with TISM that may be even less likely. The big difference, I suppose, is...
by Elbowman
Wed Sep 10, 2014 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vangaurd STAR
Replies: 31
Views: 2369

Re: Vangaurd STAR

A Vanguard Total Stock Market investment seems like a smarter bet, yet again I'm clueless so any advice is welcome. Per $1000 invested in TSM, you can expect a whopping six to seven dollars per month return. It takes an enormous amount of passively invested money to replace the income you get from ...
by Elbowman
Mon Aug 25, 2014 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Equal Weight Index
Replies: 10
Views: 1046

Re: S&P 500 Equal Weight Index

I believe the critique is Equal Weight Indices behave a lot like mid-cap cap-weighted indices, but with a meaningfully higher ER (0.4 vs 0.09). Using the forum search in the top right you can see the considerable discussion that has already been had on this topic. https://www.google.com/search?sites...
by Elbowman
Sat Aug 09, 2014 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3.3% Vanguard 10 year CD
Replies: 99
Views: 11510

Re: 3.3% Vanguard 10 year CD

ArthurO wrote:I refuse to loose my purchasing power due to inflation.
ArthurO wrote:I refuse to loose even a penny
You refuse? You must be pretty important, the market doesn't ask for my permission when it sets risk/return curves.
by Elbowman
Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Affording a 1.3 million home?
Replies: 122
Views: 21979

Re: Affording a 1.3 million home?

This is OT, but every personal finance book I've read implores you not to hold your employer's stock any longer than you have to.
by Elbowman
Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taxable Accounts - Am I thinking about this the right way?
Replies: 30
Views: 3135

Re: Taxable Accounts - Am I thinking about this the right wa

Am I missing something basic here? I admit I skimmed some of this, but I think so. Say this very high earner was in CA. His/her marginal tax bracket would be approaching 50%. For the sake of simplicity, say he/she had the choice to put everything in taxable or tax deferred. At retirement the differ...
by Elbowman
Tue Jul 22, 2014 5:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taxable Accounts - Am I thinking about this the right way?
Replies: 30
Views: 3135

Re: Taxable Accounts - Am I thinking about this the right wa

Am I missing something basic here? I admit I skimmed some of this, but I think so. Say this very high earner was in CA. His/her marginal tax bracket would be approaching 50%. For the sake of simplicity, say he/she had the choice to put everything in taxable or tax deferred. At retirement the differ...
by Elbowman
Thu Jun 05, 2014 8:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: if savings rate is most important.....
Replies: 24
Views: 2430

Re: if savings rate is most important.....

+1 for time. I like to think of it like this: FinalAmount = SavingsRate * EverythingElse ^ Time . If I didn't know anything about those variables I would rank their importance as: Time > EverythingElse > SavingsRate . However, increasing your SavingsRate is easier than increasing your EverythingElse...
by Elbowman
Fri May 30, 2014 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Trying to Understand Corporate Bond Risk in Wellesley
Replies: 44
Views: 3137

Re: Trying to Understand Corporate Bond Risk in Wellesley

If 60% of the 78% equals 47% of the Wellesley fund, should I expect that 47% to lose 50% of its value if the equity markets lose 50% of their value? No, you should not expect corporate bonds to lose as much of their value as equities. If I were you I'd start by looking at Vanguard's Intermediate-Te...
by Elbowman
Wed May 21, 2014 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Least tax efficient
Replies: 8
Views: 1431

Re: Least tax efficient

REIT will probably incur the most taxes. Also, you can replace your nominal bonds with munis and your TIPS with I Bonds (slowly). I don't know of a tax efficient replacement for REIT.
by Elbowman
Fri May 16, 2014 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking Constructive Advice on Whole Life for High Income Ea
Replies: 25
Views: 1906

Re: Seeking Constructive Advice on Whole Life for High Incom

Hah, its been a while since I've seen one of these posts. "I've decided to shoot myself in the foot. Now I know there are a lot of foot shooting haters on this forum, and I've considered your arguments so you don't need to repeat them. As for the rest of you, what caliber and angle would you su...
by Elbowman
Wed May 14, 2014 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Smart Beta" ?
Replies: 12
Views: 1481

Re: "Smart Beta" ?

So my Vanguard SCV fund means I have a stake in the Strategic Beta universe? I guess I need to start going to some cocktail parties!
by Elbowman
Mon May 12, 2014 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Importance of Sequencing in Withdraw Plans
Replies: 9
Views: 1198

Re: The Importance of Sequencing in Withdraw Plans

I don't know what index fund you are using, but assuming it's a stock fund, I'd rerun your numbers using the various Vanguard lifecycle funds in place of the stock fund. This will check if the reduced losses of the active funds are just from reduced risk.
by Elbowman
Fri Apr 25, 2014 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Would you EVER recommend 100% equity?
Replies: 136
Views: 31021

Re: Poll: Would you EVER recommend 100% equity?

No. With most of the experts I've read recommending no more than 80/20, I'd feel irresponsible recommending 100/0. Perhaps people are focusing too much on "ever" and not enough on "recommend". I can imagine situations where I'd go 100/0, but I still wouldn't be comfortable sugges...
by Elbowman
Tue Apr 15, 2014 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with a put option, can i exercise it?
Replies: 13
Views: 473

Re: Help with a put option, can i exercise it?

If you take the title of this thread, and enter it in Google, the first result will tell you want you need to know.
The advise you got from Ladygeek, when judged by its long term impact, is probably the best investing advise you have received thus far in life.
by Elbowman
Tue Apr 15, 2014 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Available Funds in 401K - Opinions please
Replies: 8
Views: 776

Re: Available Funds in 401K - Opinions please

The most important information for this decision is the expense ratio your plan is charging for each of those funds. If you can find those, we can help you :) .
by Elbowman
Thu Apr 10, 2014 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 20+ Year Treasury Bond
Replies: 6
Views: 790

Re: 20+ Year Treasury Bond

I think some people who use the Permanent Portfolio might hold that. But they are expecting volatility from it, not safety. With a duration that long you really could see a stock like crash if interest rates increased just a couple of percent, and holding for the long term is easier said than done.
by Elbowman
Wed Apr 09, 2014 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest my "Emergency Fund"
Replies: 20
Views: 3367

Re: How to invest my "Emergency Fund"

+1 to b4nash's suggestion, particularly the I Bonds (careful though, you must wait a year before withdrawing) and FDIC insured CDs. Basically things with no risk of loss of principal. Also you mentioned that the biggest emergency you foresee is needing to get a new car. Two things about that... 1) E...
by Elbowman
Wed Apr 09, 2014 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k Investment Options
Replies: 12
Views: 603

Re: 401k Investment Options

Your current 401(k) elections are not great, but you are fortunate to have a great US stock option (VINIX) and a pretty good bond option (BMOIX). If you use your Roth IRA to hold the Extended US Stock Market (VEXMX, a 4:1 ratio of Institutional index to Extended index recreates the "total"...
by Elbowman
Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Random Walk Down Wall Street
Replies: 27
Views: 2752

Re: Random Walk Down Wall Street

The less history you know, the more susceptible you are to the idea that "this time it's different".
by Elbowman
Tue Mar 11, 2014 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is index investing better considering these funds
Replies: 23
Views: 3191

Re: Why is index investing better considering these funds

You're going to spend tens of thousands of hours, perhaps a hundred thousand hours of your life working to make money. You need to take the tiniest fraction of that, perhaps five to ten hours, and read a book to find out what you should do with the money you are working so hard to make. I suggest &q...
by Elbowman
Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 25 YR Old Just Starting Out-Help with 401K/Investing
Replies: 11
Views: 1761

Re: 25 YR Old Just Starting Out-Help with 401K/Investing

Watch the fixed income allocation. You could easily live to 100. I strongly encourage you to move to 100% equity allocation ASAP. You will certainly--certainly--thank me in 50 years. Look at any DJIA chart for the last 100 years if you doubt me. And research the number of ten year periods in which ...

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