Search found 315 matches

by Elbowman
Fri Apr 29, 2016 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Markets Have ‘Borrowed’ Returns from the Future”
Replies: 11
Views: 1390

Re: “Markets Have ‘Borrowed’ Returns from the Future”

That's probably accurate. To some extent that's the Fed's job, to smooth out the boom and bust cycle.
by Elbowman
Wed Apr 27, 2016 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA - Target fund vs total market
Replies: 4
Views: 336

Re: IRA - Target fund vs total market

Ignoring the difference in asset allocation between TSM and TR (which others have mentioned), there is nothing wrong with holding the individual funds which compromise the TR in order to save 0.05%-0.1%. A little bit more work, a little bit more return ($70k seems high, but I could see it being in t...
by Elbowman
Wed Apr 27, 2016 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Long and Short of It
Replies: 16
Views: 1812

Re: The Long and Short of It

My feelings on this (which I believe are shared by many on this forum) comes down to a faith in the aggregate human ingenuity which comprises the market. Exploitable inefficiencies (risk adjusted return greater than the market) should not persist. The return of the average investor can not be greate...
by Elbowman
Fri Apr 22, 2016 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need suggestions to earn at least 2% with low risk and high liquidity
Replies: 11
Views: 1103

Re: Need suggestions to earn at least 2% with low risk and high liquidity

Target Retirement is 30% stocks, so a 15% loss could easily happen.
by Elbowman
Fri Apr 22, 2016 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First time investor, nervous about dropping $150.000 into the market
Replies: 8
Views: 1979

Re: First time investor, nervous about dropping $150.000 into the market

Your proposed portfolio looks fine, provided you stay the course . It would be easy to select three different portfolios, each fine on their own and likely to produce good long term returns over the next 30 years. However, if you were to frequently switch between those three portfolios based on the ...
by Elbowman
Mon Apr 18, 2016 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Lazy Portfolio's work with Active Funds?
Replies: 4
Views: 517

Re: Do Lazy Portfolio's work with Active Funds?

Depends on the cost difference. If your 401k has a S&P 500 index for 0.1% and the active funds cost 1.0%, I doubt they are worth the diversification. In that case I'd just fill a Roth IRA with low cost international and call it good enough.
by Elbowman
Fri Apr 15, 2016 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to park $$$ while DCA/VCA
Replies: 31
Views: 1044

Re: Where to park $$$ while DCA/VCA

What attracts me to DCA/VCA is that it provides some hedge against 2016 being the next 2008 (or 2000, etc.). Becoming 100% vested at the market top just prior to a catastrophic bear market would be a travesty. Having some protection against the next market downturn is a fine goal. I do it myself (a...
by Elbowman
Fri Apr 15, 2016 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to park $$$ while DCA/VCA
Replies: 31
Views: 1044

Re: Where to park $$$ while DCA/VCA

If feels odd to just have it sitting in a lowly money market account. It does, because it is. It should feel odd having it sit in a short term bond fund too. Since you are looking at Sharpe ratios, I imagine you already know that DCA/VCA doesn't actually make financial sense, it is just an emotiona...
by Elbowman
Thu Apr 14, 2016 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much is too much for trading commissions?
Replies: 11
Views: 771

Re: How much is too much for trading commissions?

For 1): Given your $10 commission on a $1000 investment example, lets think of this as a 1% cost per trade. The main question for me is how often do you trade? First possibility: you buy once with new savings, and then hold forever. In this case a 1% cost really isn't that bad. It's not ideal, but i...
by Elbowman
Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 24yr old Beginning to invest
Replies: 5
Views: 339

Re: 24yr old Beginning to invest

Easy. Start by reading https://www.etf.com/docs/IfYouCan.pdf by William Bernstein. In that he recommends several books, and over the next year or so you should read those too. Once you do you will be able to confidently manage all of your investing for the rest of your life. Its may seem like a lot ...
by Elbowman
Wed Apr 06, 2016 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Review of AQR Equity Market Neutral & Long-Short Equity
Replies: 44
Views: 3511

Re: Review of AQR Equity Market Neutral & Long-Short Equity

Man, I would have to be so confident in the persistence of these strategies going forward to pay a 1.34% ER. I'm somewhat skeptical of size and value, but that's OK because they only cost me four BP (VBR - VTI), and if the premiums disappear due to increased exploitation... Oh well, I guess I slight...
by Elbowman
Wed Mar 09, 2016 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Choosing Between Not so Great 401k Funds
Replies: 9
Views: 547

Re: Help Choosing Between Not so Great 401k Funds

Or I could just do the XAT and PTTRX and make compensate with more international stocks in my IRA. I'd do that. The S&P 500 index you have is pretty good, and the bond fund certainly could be worse. Don't be too concerned about getting "exactly the right mix", future returns are not g...
by Elbowman
Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil Slump ---- VGENX/FSENX? [Vanguard / Fidelity Energy Fund]
Replies: 27
Views: 2544

Re: OIL SLUMP ---- VGENX/FSENX?

"The horse-drawn carriage market is in a slump! Should I jump in? I'm a long term investor, so I can easily wait for it to recover..."

Oil prices COULD recover, but I see no reason why they MUST recover.
by Elbowman
Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there such thing as a buying opportunity?
Replies: 31
Views: 2466

Re: Is there such thing as a buying opportunity?

It is possible to believe that 1) Tiger Woods exists and 2) for nearly all people it would be a mistake to try and make their fortune as a professional golfer. You don't need to believe the market is perfectly efficient to be a Boglehead. You just need to understand that most people who try to beat ...
by Elbowman
Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will continued growth of passive funds hurt returns?
Replies: 6
Views: 480

Re: Will continued growth of passive funds hurt returns?

I don't think so. In the long run, stock returns come from companies making a profit, which has nothing to with whether their stock is actively or passively held.
by Elbowman
Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the Bay Area housing market efficient?
Replies: 14
Views: 1453

Re: Is the Bay Area housing market efficient?

The529guy wrote:$88k sale price in 2003 seems like a huge outlier.
Yes, I admit I only saw one of those, it really shook me up though! $200k sale price in early 2000s is much more common, and a reversion to $200k from $800k wouldn't be much better than $88k.
by Elbowman
Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the Bay Area housing market efficient?
Replies: 14
Views: 1453

Re: Is the Bay Area housing market efficient?

Thanks everyone! Perhaps efficient was the wrong word. I am worried that a particular housing market may lack some of the mechanisms which are used in the stock market (short selling) and create downward pressure. I suppose building housing is like short selling, but there are lots of restrictions o...
by Elbowman
Tue Dec 15, 2015 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the Bay Area housing market efficient?
Replies: 14
Views: 1453

Is the Bay Area housing market efficient?

I have completely come to terms with the stock and bond markets; that the current price is the best estimate of the future value, and that any attempts by me time the market would most likely be a mistake. I'm having trouble transferring this faith in the market the houses my fiancee and I are consi...
by Elbowman
Tue Dec 15, 2015 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 3M (MMM)
Replies: 39
Views: 4732

Re: Thoughts on 3M (MMM)

I've been a long term hold on 3M. Today they are having a down day (~-5%) so it seems like a good chance to pick up more shares. I'd like to hear some folks thoughts on 3M as a investment. Note, I am 30yo with around $100K in 401K and IRAs. Currently maybe 4-5% of my holdings are in 3M. I know we d...
by Elbowman
Tue Dec 15, 2015 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 3M (MMM)
Replies: 39
Views: 4732

Re: Thoughts on 3M (MMM)

Looks like you have been on this board for a while, long enough to know what our replies will be :D . As an investor, you are taking on risk in exchange for expected returns. Your ability to take risk is limited, and so you should make sure that all risk you take on when investing is compensated. In...
by Elbowman
Thu Dec 03, 2015 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Equities Overpriced?
Replies: 58
Views: 5359

Re: Are Equities Overpriced?

I think there is general agreement that 10-30 year nominal equity returns will not be as high as their historical averages. However, equity (expected) returns are higher than any of the alternatives, so I don't think there is much to do besides sit tight and perhaps save more.
by Elbowman
Fri Oct 23, 2015 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Allocation - HELP!
Replies: 11
Views: 826

Re: 401K Allocation - HELP!

So, it's always a reasonable decision to use the lowest cost funds available to you to approximate a Target Retirement Fund with a stock/bond split that you like. These are mostly Three Fund Portfolios (https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio) with the stock portion divided 60/40 betwee...
by Elbowman
Tue Oct 06, 2015 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with liquidation.
Replies: 8
Views: 525

Re: Help with liquidation.

I mainly am curious about this after reading several examples where the "hold & grow" method of traditional investing isn't the most rewarding. Could you provide us with some links to these examples, so we could take a look at them? There is overwhelming evidence to the contrary, so I...
by Elbowman
Mon Aug 10, 2015 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Front-End Loads: Are They Really THAT Big of a Deal?
Replies: 60
Views: 4879

Re: Front-End Loads: Are They Really THAT Big of a Deal?

sawhorse wrote:A 0.6% expense ratio is frowned upon here. When people say it's not that terrible, it's almost always in the context of employer retirement plans where you don't have a choice.
Exactly. People here would flip out just as much over anyone choosing 0.6% ER when they have better options.
by Elbowman
Mon Jul 13, 2015 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If I am 25 years from retirement
Replies: 20
Views: 1625

Re: If I am 25 years from retirement

The most important thing is to stick to your plan through any big market drops ! An all in one fund will rebalance for you. Owning the subfunds may require some rebalancing on your part, but has expenses. You have to judge how likely you are to do rebalancing as needed, and whether it will stress y...
by Elbowman
Tue Jun 16, 2015 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cost difference
Replies: 27
Views: 2441

Re: Cost difference

livesoft wrote:Is 60% bigger than 40%?
IMO, it's close enough to $60 that your responses are unnecessarily harsh.
by Elbowman
Tue May 12, 2015 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 1824

Re: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds

On this forum and others, people claim that gold has a place in one's portfolio because it is a hedge against risks like collapse, government violation of property rights, etc. (I know that there many be other reasons to hold gold, but I want to focus on this one.) Of course you can focus on that r...
by Elbowman
Wed Apr 01, 2015 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Lifestrategy "Aggressive"
Replies: 13
Views: 1752

Re: Vanguard Lifestrategy "Aggressive"

"You're not taking any of the money out ... so you don't need to buffer your portfolio with bonds" - YES "You're not planning on taking any of the money out ... so you don't plan to need to buffer your portfolio with bonds" - YES You're not planning on taking any of the money out...
by Elbowman
Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should a BH investor never use futures/options?
Replies: 70
Views: 5730

Re: Should a BH investor never use futures/options?

Just like active management, options are a true zero-sum game, meaning the expected return of all parties after transaction costs is always negative. This is not mentioned enough! You are playing a negative-sum game (after costs) against professionals. That should be all you need to know to discard...
by Elbowman
Sun Mar 22, 2015 1:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Math majors needed in here for loan interest rates thoughts
Replies: 36
Views: 2890

Re: Math majors needed in here for loan interest rates thoug

I'd like to assume for the scenario that stocks will perform at 5% or better, basically better than the interest of an auto loan. Yes, if you start with the unreasonable assumption that you can count on stock returns being greater than 5% for the duration of a car loan , you will arrive at the conc...
by Elbowman
Mon Mar 09, 2015 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's Wrong With This Portfolio ?
Replies: 6
Views: 724

Re: What's Wrong With This Portfolio ?

+1 for "good enough". I think the bar for unsolicited advice should be pretty high, especially for people you care to maintain a relationship with. If the portfolio was 50% hedge funds and 50% whole life, then yes, I'd say something. I'd probably even venture a cautious comment if the enti...
by Elbowman
Mon Mar 09, 2015 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will you buy an Apple Watch?
Replies: 456
Views: 42284

Re: Will you buy an Apple Watch?

Not until I see a "killer app".
by Elbowman
Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA target fund
Replies: 6
Views: 708

Re: IRA target fund

To add to what RadAudit said, the moral of the story is not "if the target date fund won't give me 8%, I'll find something that will". TD funds are reasonably aggressive in terms of risk reward balance, and if that is not enough to meet your goals given your current savings it is much safe...
by Elbowman
Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett/Hedge Fund Bet - Protege Partners' Excuses!
Replies: 34
Views: 3192

Re: Buffett/Hedge Fund Bet - Protege Partners' Excuses!

Taylor Larimore wrote:Gabriel:

Thank you for the link showing that it is dangerous to make a long-term bet against an index fund.

Best wishes.
Taylor
1) Never get involved in a land war in Asia.
2) Never make a long-term bet against an index fund.
3) Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line.
by Elbowman
Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: larry portfolio vs 3 fund portfolio last 2 years
Replies: 16
Views: 2930

Re: larry portfolio vs 3 fund portfolio last 2 years

Hopefully you will be repaid in the next crash!
by Elbowman
Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Only bonds in tax-advantaged accounts,but what about growth?
Replies: 8
Views: 1479

Re: Only bonds in tax-advantaged accounts,but what about gro

The tax efficiency guide does not state to put only bonds in tax-advantaged accounts. Many people read it that way, but ALL asset classes can go into tax-advantaged accounts. +1. You would prefer to have everything in tax-advantaged accounts (assuming you are retiring after 59), TSM and TISM are ju...
by Elbowman
Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K changing Pimco Tot Ret to VG Int Term Bond Index. OK?
Replies: 17
Views: 1603

Re: 401K changing Pimco Tot Ret to VG Int Term Bond Index. O

Gort wrote:Is VBIIX a good core holding?
Yes. A lot of the people here who think TBM is too heavy in treasuries actually like VBIIX more.
by Elbowman
Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom
Replies: 46
Views: 2366

Re: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom

What does skill have to do with a margin call?
by Elbowman
Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you using a Martingale strategy and don't know it?
Replies: 28
Views: 2458

Re: Are you using a Martingale strategy and don't know it?

Isn't rebalancing in a crashing market martingale-ish? You keep doubling down, and it will work every time until your country or economic system finishes its run and things actually go to zero? At least for domestic investing, with TISM that may be even less likely. The big difference, I suppose, is...
by Elbowman
Wed Sep 10, 2014 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vangaurd STAR
Replies: 31
Views: 2432

Re: Vangaurd STAR

A Vanguard Total Stock Market investment seems like a smarter bet, yet again I'm clueless so any advice is welcome. Per $1000 invested in TSM, you can expect a whopping six to seven dollars per month return. It takes an enormous amount of passively invested money to replace the income you get from ...
by Elbowman
Mon Aug 25, 2014 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Equal Weight Index
Replies: 10
Views: 1063

Re: S&P 500 Equal Weight Index

I believe the critique is Equal Weight Indices behave a lot like mid-cap cap-weighted indices, but with a meaningfully higher ER (0.4 vs 0.09). Using the forum search in the top right you can see the considerable discussion that has already been had on this topic. https://www.google.com/search?sites...
by Elbowman
Sat Aug 09, 2014 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3.3% Vanguard 10 year CD
Replies: 99
Views: 11747

Re: 3.3% Vanguard 10 year CD

ArthurO wrote:I refuse to loose my purchasing power due to inflation.
ArthurO wrote:I refuse to loose even a penny
You refuse? You must be pretty important, the market doesn't ask for my permission when it sets risk/return curves.
by Elbowman
Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Affording a 1.3 million home?
Replies: 122
Views: 22645

Re: Affording a 1.3 million home?

This is OT, but every personal finance book I've read implores you not to hold your employer's stock any longer than you have to.
by Elbowman
Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taxable Accounts - Am I thinking about this the right way?
Replies: 30
Views: 3171

Re: Taxable Accounts - Am I thinking about this the right wa

Am I missing something basic here? I admit I skimmed some of this, but I think so. Say this very high earner was in CA. His/her marginal tax bracket would be approaching 50%. For the sake of simplicity, say he/she had the choice to put everything in taxable or tax deferred. At retirement the differ...
by Elbowman
Tue Jul 22, 2014 5:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taxable Accounts - Am I thinking about this the right way?
Replies: 30
Views: 3171

Re: Taxable Accounts - Am I thinking about this the right wa

Am I missing something basic here? I admit I skimmed some of this, but I think so. Say this very high earner was in CA. His/her marginal tax bracket would be approaching 50%. For the sake of simplicity, say he/she had the choice to put everything in taxable or tax deferred. At retirement the differ...
by Elbowman
Thu Jun 05, 2014 8:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: if savings rate is most important.....
Replies: 24
Views: 2488

Re: if savings rate is most important.....

+1 for time. I like to think of it like this: FinalAmount = SavingsRate * EverythingElse ^ Time . If I didn't know anything about those variables I would rank their importance as: Time > EverythingElse > SavingsRate . However, increasing your SavingsRate is easier than increasing your EverythingElse...
by Elbowman
Fri May 30, 2014 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Trying to Understand Corporate Bond Risk in Wellesley
Replies: 44
Views: 3180

Re: Trying to Understand Corporate Bond Risk in Wellesley

If 60% of the 78% equals 47% of the Wellesley fund, should I expect that 47% to lose 50% of its value if the equity markets lose 50% of their value? No, you should not expect corporate bonds to lose as much of their value as equities. If I were you I'd start by looking at Vanguard's Intermediate-Te...
by Elbowman
Wed May 21, 2014 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Least tax efficient
Replies: 8
Views: 1446

Re: Least tax efficient

REIT will probably incur the most taxes. Also, you can replace your nominal bonds with munis and your TIPS with I Bonds (slowly). I don't know of a tax efficient replacement for REIT.
by Elbowman
Fri May 16, 2014 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking Constructive Advice on Whole Life for High Income Ea
Replies: 25
Views: 1955

Re: Seeking Constructive Advice on Whole Life for High Incom

Hah, its been a while since I've seen one of these posts. "I've decided to shoot myself in the foot. Now I know there are a lot of foot shooting haters on this forum, and I've considered your arguments so you don't need to repeat them. As for the rest of you, what caliber and angle would you su...

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