Search found 330 matches

by Elbowman
Tue May 24, 2016 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Feedback
Replies: 5
Views: 257

Re: Asset Allocation Feedback

Why Small Growth + Small Value? Did you mean Small Blend + Small Value? Small Growth + Small Value more or less equals Small Blend, so you could do 30% Small Blend and have a simpler portfolio with the same properties. As far as rental properties as fixed income, they really have different behavior....
by Elbowman
Tue May 24, 2016 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a new look at the size premium
Replies: 42
Views: 3442

Re: a new look at the size premium

Thanks Larry
larryswedroe wrote:Small overall has vol of about 28% versus about 20% for large or about 40% more volatile
How consistent is this? Is there data on the relative volatility of small per decade?
by Elbowman
Tue May 24, 2016 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a new look at the size premium
Replies: 42
Views: 3442

Re: a new look at the size premium

But simply looking at VOL, one measure of risk and you see MUCH higher vol for small stocks, and investors are risk averse and demand premiums for bearing that higher risks, especially downside risk which is greater for small stocks Should VOL (volatility?) be apparent the chart I posted? The Small...
by Elbowman
Tue May 24, 2016 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a new look at the size premium
Replies: 42
Views: 3442

Re: a new look at the size premium

Hey Larry, thanks for responding! I am not reassured by "it happened in the past" arguments since one of the more important properties of financial markets that increased exploitation should cause risk-free or "risk-lite" return to shrink if not disappear. I expect more of a &quo...
by Elbowman
Mon May 23, 2016 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a new look at the size premium
Replies: 42
Views: 3442

Re: a new look at the size premium

Random Walker, Thanks for the additional information. I understand that if you start from the belief that the size and value premiums will persist at something close to their historical norms (in terms of degree and correlation), then a portfolio which generates it's return from 33% market, 33% size...
by Elbowman
Sun May 22, 2016 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a new look at the size premium
Replies: 42
Views: 3442

Re: a new look at the size premium

Elbowman You have to look at each of the factors because they each help explain returns. But yes that is what it means. Now you also have other issues which end up in the alpha--fund expenses, trading costs. Larry Thanks Larry, thats actually quite reassuring. For some reason I got the impression t...
by Elbowman
Fri May 20, 2016 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a new look at the size premium
Replies: 42
Views: 3442

Re: a new look at the size premium

Sorry for a noob-ish question about factor loading, but if the Vanguard fund has 2/3rds the factor loading of DFA micro-caps, does that mean it would (of should) have captured 2/3rds of the premium that DFA captured?
by Elbowman
Fri May 20, 2016 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Limited History for Backtesting
Replies: 7
Views: 329

Re: Limited History for Backtesting

And, of course, you should recognize the limitations of backtesting in any subject where knowledge of the past affects the present and future. The more fine grained your testing gets the less likely it is to be predictive going forward.
by Elbowman
Fri May 20, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Critique
Replies: 4
Views: 357

Re: Portfolio Critique

Did Vanguard really recommend VWIGX (Vanguard International Growth Fund (ER=0.47%)) when you had the option of Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Institutional Shares? Was VTSNX added after they made their recommendation? I am surprised because VTSNX is much better than VWIGX, and you sho...
by Elbowman
Fri May 20, 2016 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging markets value premium
Replies: 10
Views: 866

Re: Emerging markets value premium

Lots of discussion already, the top right search option is super useful: https://www.google.com/search?sitesearc ... ue+premium
by Elbowman
Wed May 18, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing passively in inefficient markets
Replies: 11
Views: 878

Re: Investing passively in inefficient markets

Before costs the market IS the average active investor, and after costs it will outperform the average active investor everywhere, every time. You seem to be suggesting that in emerging markets it is possible to separate, beforehand, the active investors who will outperform from active investors who...
by Elbowman
Tue May 17, 2016 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My friend wants to invest money; please review my advice for her
Replies: 44
Views: 3161

Re: My friend wants to invest money; please review my advice for her

is she willing to learn on her own by reading ... William Bernstein's e-book If You Can +1 to this, including reading all the books he suggests in that paper. Tell her that doing the right thing in the beginning is the easy part of investing. The hard part is not doing the wrong thing for the next ...
by Elbowman
Fri May 06, 2016 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help with bond/fixed income side of portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1527

Re: Please help with bond/fixed income side of portfolio

Nah, just stick with Total Bond Market. Out of the options you have, the first four: Janus Short term bond (T) JASBX 0.84 Double Line Total Return Bond (N) DLTNX 0.72 Pimco Income Fund I PIMIX 0.45 Metropolitan West Total Return Bond M MWTRX 0.69 can be discarded immediately, they are far too expens...
by Elbowman
Thu May 05, 2016 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Northwestern Mutual Bad option?
Replies: 13
Views: 1489

Re: Northwestern Mutual Bad option?

Yes, for investing it is a bad option. Whole life is a bad option from anyone. Stop working with the NWM financial planner (for investing at least), they already have and will presumably continue to steer you towards bad investments that make them the most money. The fees from a 401k have to be real...
by Elbowman
Thu May 05, 2016 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Evaluate two portfolios
Replies: 2
Views: 327

Re: Evaluate two portfolios

Hi Robert, welcome to Bogleheads! Here are a couple links you should check out: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio I dare say you selected those funds (MGK and EDV) by looking at the past performance numbers? In particular, when someo...
by Elbowman
Fri Apr 29, 2016 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Markets Have ‘Borrowed’ Returns from the Future”
Replies: 17
Views: 2666

Re: “Markets Have ‘Borrowed’ Returns from the Future”

That's probably accurate. To some extent that's the Fed's job, to smooth out the boom and bust cycle.
by Elbowman
Wed Apr 27, 2016 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA - Target fund vs total market
Replies: 4
Views: 391

Re: IRA - Target fund vs total market

Ignoring the difference in asset allocation between TSM and TR (which others have mentioned), there is nothing wrong with holding the individual funds which compromise the TR in order to save 0.05%-0.1%. A little bit more work, a little bit more return ($70k seems high, but I could see it being in t...
by Elbowman
Wed Apr 27, 2016 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Long and Short of It
Replies: 16
Views: 2005

Re: The Long and Short of It

My feelings on this (which I believe are shared by many on this forum) comes down to a faith in the aggregate human ingenuity which comprises the market. Exploitable inefficiencies (risk adjusted return greater than the market) should not persist. The return of the average investor can not be greate...
by Elbowman
Fri Apr 22, 2016 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need suggestions to earn at least 2% with low risk and high liquidity
Replies: 11
Views: 1180

Re: Need suggestions to earn at least 2% with low risk and high liquidity

Target Retirement is 30% stocks, so a 15% loss could easily happen.
by Elbowman
Fri Apr 22, 2016 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First time investor, nervous about dropping $150.000 into the market
Replies: 8
Views: 2110

Re: First time investor, nervous about dropping $150.000 into the market

Your proposed portfolio looks fine, provided you stay the course . It would be easy to select three different portfolios, each fine on their own and likely to produce good long term returns over the next 30 years. However, if you were to frequently switch between those three portfolios based on the ...
by Elbowman
Mon Apr 18, 2016 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Lazy Portfolio's work with Active Funds?
Replies: 4
Views: 562

Re: Do Lazy Portfolio's work with Active Funds?

Depends on the cost difference. If your 401k has a S&P 500 index for 0.1% and the active funds cost 1.0%, I doubt they are worth the diversification. In that case I'd just fill a Roth IRA with low cost international and call it good enough.
by Elbowman
Fri Apr 15, 2016 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to park $$$ while DCA/VCA
Replies: 31
Views: 1139

Re: Where to park $$$ while DCA/VCA

What attracts me to DCA/VCA is that it provides some hedge against 2016 being the next 2008 (or 2000, etc.). Becoming 100% vested at the market top just prior to a catastrophic bear market would be a travesty. Having some protection against the next market downturn is a fine goal. I do it myself (a...
by Elbowman
Fri Apr 15, 2016 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to park $$$ while DCA/VCA
Replies: 31
Views: 1139

Re: Where to park $$$ while DCA/VCA

If feels odd to just have it sitting in a lowly money market account. It does, because it is. It should feel odd having it sit in a short term bond fund too. Since you are looking at Sharpe ratios, I imagine you already know that DCA/VCA doesn't actually make financial sense, it is just an emotiona...
by Elbowman
Thu Apr 14, 2016 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much is too much for trading commissions?
Replies: 11
Views: 837

Re: How much is too much for trading commissions?

For 1): Given your $10 commission on a $1000 investment example, lets think of this as a 1% cost per trade. The main question for me is how often do you trade? First possibility: you buy once with new savings, and then hold forever. In this case a 1% cost really isn't that bad. It's not ideal, but i...
by Elbowman
Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 24yr old Beginning to invest
Replies: 5
Views: 370

Re: 24yr old Beginning to invest

Easy. Start by reading https://www.etf.com/docs/IfYouCan.pdf by William Bernstein. In that he recommends several books, and over the next year or so you should read those too. Once you do you will be able to confidently manage all of your investing for the rest of your life. Its may seem like a lot ...
by Elbowman
Wed Apr 06, 2016 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Review of AQR Equity Market Neutral & Long-Short Equity
Replies: 44
Views: 3830

Re: Review of AQR Equity Market Neutral & Long-Short Equity

Man, I would have to be so confident in the persistence of these strategies going forward to pay a 1.34% ER. I'm somewhat skeptical of size and value, but that's OK because they only cost me four BP (VBR - VTI), and if the premiums disappear due to increased exploitation... Oh well, I guess I slight...
by Elbowman
Wed Mar 09, 2016 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Choosing Between Not so Great 401k Funds
Replies: 9
Views: 577

Re: Help Choosing Between Not so Great 401k Funds

Or I could just do the XAT and PTTRX and make compensate with more international stocks in my IRA. I'd do that. The S&P 500 index you have is pretty good, and the bond fund certainly could be worse. Don't be too concerned about getting "exactly the right mix", future returns are not g...
by Elbowman
Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil Slump ---- VGENX/FSENX? [Vanguard / Fidelity Energy Fund]
Replies: 27
Views: 2588

Re: OIL SLUMP ---- VGENX/FSENX?

"The horse-drawn carriage market is in a slump! Should I jump in? I'm a long term investor, so I can easily wait for it to recover..."

Oil prices COULD recover, but I see no reason why they MUST recover.
by Elbowman
Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there such thing as a buying opportunity?
Replies: 31
Views: 2500

Re: Is there such thing as a buying opportunity?

It is possible to believe that 1) Tiger Woods exists and 2) for nearly all people it would be a mistake to try and make their fortune as a professional golfer. You don't need to believe the market is perfectly efficient to be a Boglehead. You just need to understand that most people who try to beat ...
by Elbowman
Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will continued growth of passive funds hurt returns?
Replies: 6
Views: 492

Re: Will continued growth of passive funds hurt returns?

I don't think so. In the long run, stock returns come from companies making a profit, which has nothing to with whether their stock is actively or passively held.
by Elbowman
Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the Bay Area housing market efficient?
Replies: 14
Views: 1509

Re: Is the Bay Area housing market efficient?

The529guy wrote:$88k sale price in 2003 seems like a huge outlier.
Yes, I admit I only saw one of those, it really shook me up though! $200k sale price in early 2000s is much more common, and a reversion to $200k from $800k wouldn't be much better than $88k.
by Elbowman
Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the Bay Area housing market efficient?
Replies: 14
Views: 1509

Re: Is the Bay Area housing market efficient?

Thanks everyone! Perhaps efficient was the wrong word. I am worried that a particular housing market may lack some of the mechanisms which are used in the stock market (short selling) and create downward pressure. I suppose building housing is like short selling, but there are lots of restrictions o...
by Elbowman
Tue Dec 15, 2015 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the Bay Area housing market efficient?
Replies: 14
Views: 1509

Is the Bay Area housing market efficient?

I have completely come to terms with the stock and bond markets; that the current price is the best estimate of the future value, and that any attempts by me time the market would most likely be a mistake. I'm having trouble transferring this faith in the market the houses my fiancee and I are consi...
by Elbowman
Tue Dec 15, 2015 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 3M (MMM)
Replies: 39
Views: 4856

Re: Thoughts on 3M (MMM)

I've been a long term hold on 3M. Today they are having a down day (~-5%) so it seems like a good chance to pick up more shares. I'd like to hear some folks thoughts on 3M as a investment. Note, I am 30yo with around $100K in 401K and IRAs. Currently maybe 4-5% of my holdings are in 3M. I know we d...
by Elbowman
Tue Dec 15, 2015 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 3M (MMM)
Replies: 39
Views: 4856

Re: Thoughts on 3M (MMM)

Looks like you have been on this board for a while, long enough to know what our replies will be :D . As an investor, you are taking on risk in exchange for expected returns. Your ability to take risk is limited, and so you should make sure that all risk you take on when investing is compensated. In...
by Elbowman
Thu Dec 03, 2015 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Equities Overpriced?
Replies: 58
Views: 5500

Re: Are Equities Overpriced?

I think there is general agreement that 10-30 year nominal equity returns will not be as high as their historical averages. However, equity (expected) returns are higher than any of the alternatives, so I don't think there is much to do besides sit tight and perhaps save more.
by Elbowman
Fri Oct 23, 2015 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Allocation - HELP!
Replies: 11
Views: 859

Re: 401K Allocation - HELP!

So, it's always a reasonable decision to use the lowest cost funds available to you to approximate a Target Retirement Fund with a stock/bond split that you like. These are mostly Three Fund Portfolios (https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio) with the stock portion divided 60/40 betwee...
by Elbowman
Tue Oct 06, 2015 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with liquidation.
Replies: 8
Views: 537

Re: Help with liquidation.

I mainly am curious about this after reading several examples where the "hold & grow" method of traditional investing isn't the most rewarding. Could you provide us with some links to these examples, so we could take a look at them? There is overwhelming evidence to the contrary, so I...
by Elbowman
Mon Aug 10, 2015 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Front-End Loads: Are They Really THAT Big of a Deal?
Replies: 60
Views: 4931

Re: Front-End Loads: Are They Really THAT Big of a Deal?

sawhorse wrote:A 0.6% expense ratio is frowned upon here. When people say it's not that terrible, it's almost always in the context of employer retirement plans where you don't have a choice.
Exactly. People here would flip out just as much over anyone choosing 0.6% ER when they have better options.
by Elbowman
Mon Jul 13, 2015 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If I am 25 years from retirement
Replies: 20
Views: 1655

Re: If I am 25 years from retirement

The most important thing is to stick to your plan through any big market drops ! An all in one fund will rebalance for you. Owning the subfunds may require some rebalancing on your part, but has expenses. You have to judge how likely you are to do rebalancing as needed, and whether it will stress y...
by Elbowman
Tue Jun 16, 2015 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cost difference
Replies: 27
Views: 2464

Re: Cost difference

livesoft wrote:Is 60% bigger than 40%?
IMO, it's close enough to $60 that your responses are unnecessarily harsh.
by Elbowman
Tue May 12, 2015 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 1861

Re: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds

On this forum and others, people claim that gold has a place in one's portfolio because it is a hedge against risks like collapse, government violation of property rights, etc. (I know that there many be other reasons to hold gold, but I want to focus on this one.) Of course you can focus on that r...
by Elbowman
Wed Apr 01, 2015 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Lifestrategy "Aggressive"
Replies: 13
Views: 1767

Re: Vanguard Lifestrategy "Aggressive"

"You're not taking any of the money out ... so you don't need to buffer your portfolio with bonds" - YES "You're not planning on taking any of the money out ... so you don't plan to need to buffer your portfolio with bonds" - YES You're not planning on taking any of the money out...
by Elbowman
Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should a BH investor never use futures/options?
Replies: 70
Views: 5828

Re: Should a BH investor never use futures/options?

Just like active management, options are a true zero-sum game, meaning the expected return of all parties after transaction costs is always negative. This is not mentioned enough! You are playing a negative-sum game (after costs) against professionals. That should be all you need to know to discard...
by Elbowman
Sun Mar 22, 2015 1:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Math majors needed in here for loan interest rates thoughts
Replies: 36
Views: 2920

Re: Math majors needed in here for loan interest rates thoug

I'd like to assume for the scenario that stocks will perform at 5% or better, basically better than the interest of an auto loan. Yes, if you start with the unreasonable assumption that you can count on stock returns being greater than 5% for the duration of a car loan , you will arrive at the conc...
by Elbowman
Mon Mar 09, 2015 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's Wrong With This Portfolio ?
Replies: 6
Views: 726

Re: What's Wrong With This Portfolio ?

+1 for "good enough". I think the bar for unsolicited advice should be pretty high, especially for people you care to maintain a relationship with. If the portfolio was 50% hedge funds and 50% whole life, then yes, I'd say something. I'd probably even venture a cautious comment if the enti...
by Elbowman
Mon Mar 09, 2015 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will you buy an Apple Watch?
Replies: 456
Views: 43558

Re: Will you buy an Apple Watch?

Not until I see a "killer app".
by Elbowman
Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA target fund
Replies: 6
Views: 723

Re: IRA target fund

To add to what RadAudit said, the moral of the story is not "if the target date fund won't give me 8%, I'll find something that will". TD funds are reasonably aggressive in terms of risk reward balance, and if that is not enough to meet your goals given your current savings it is much safe...
by Elbowman
Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett/Hedge Fund Bet - Protege Partners' Excuses!
Replies: 34
Views: 3289

Re: Buffett/Hedge Fund Bet - Protege Partners' Excuses!

Taylor Larimore wrote:Gabriel:

Thank you for the link showing that it is dangerous to make a long-term bet against an index fund.

Best wishes.
Taylor
1) Never get involved in a land war in Asia.
2) Never make a long-term bet against an index fund.
3) Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line.
by Elbowman
Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: larry portfolio vs 3 fund portfolio last 2 years
Replies: 16
Views: 2942

Re: larry portfolio vs 3 fund portfolio last 2 years

Hopefully you will be repaid in the next crash!

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