Search found 377 matches

by Elbowman
Wed Sep 28, 2016 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seen the light, need advice.
Replies: 11
Views: 801

Re: Seen the light, need advice.

Trad 401ks are usually better for most circumstances. Here's why:

Pre-retirement costs: living expenses, mortgage, children, retirement savings.
Post-retirement costs: living expenses.

You typically need less money in retirement to maintain the same lifestyle, so your tax rate is typically lower.
by Elbowman
Wed Sep 28, 2016 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone feel like ripping this asset allocation to shreds?
Replies: 33
Views: 1497

Re: Anyone feel like ripping this asset allocation to shreds?

For someone who is retired, it is 80% good, 20% commodities, which probably averages out to "good enough" if you stick with it. Could use some TISM. It is pretty conservative, but to know if it is too conservative for you we need more information (retirement savings vs. required income).
by Elbowman
Fri Sep 23, 2016 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling a 401k from previous employer to an IRA or new 401k
Replies: 7
Views: 408

Re: Rolling a 401k from previous employer to an IRA or new 401k

If you are over the income limits for contributing to a Roth IRA but would still like to, then there is an advantage to choosing the 401k. Having a Trad IRA limits your ability to do a Backdoor Roth conversion.
https://thefinancebuff.com/the-backdoor ... ow-to.html
by Elbowman
Fri Sep 23, 2016 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New portfolio!
Replies: 6
Views: 335

Re: New portfolio!

You've done a good job setting up a solid portfolio! The only thing I could recommend is to read a few books on investing if you haven't yet. The big threat now is that you panic during a downturn and change your plan (and people have a knack for doing this at the worst possible time). The more you ...
by Elbowman
Thu Sep 22, 2016 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Maximization of College Financial Aid
Replies: 88
Views: 4450

Re: Extreme Maximization of College Financial Aid

First of all, everyone on this thread who takes advantage of the backdoor Roth conversion can get off their high horse. I'm one of those who enjoys these types of analyses so I figured I'd ask this forum whether I'm overlooking anything (from a purely financial perspective) other than my own need to...
by Elbowman
Wed Sep 21, 2016 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My future in your hands...
Replies: 22
Views: 3156

Re: My future in your hands...

Hi beachlife86, First of all, your future is in YOUR hands! :D You need to do some reading, because while we can give you a good strategy we can't make you stick with it during tough times, which is essential. You need to understand why it's good and believe it. I recommend reading "If You Can&...
by Elbowman
Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I am going to stop tilting. Sanity check.
Replies: 66
Views: 6052

Re: I am going to stop tilting. Sanity check.

The way I see it, when it comes to investing there is the big stuff: 1) Save early and often 2) Keep costs low (including taxes) 3) Be broadly diversified 4) Stay the course and there is the little stuff: 1) Tilting 2) Target Retirement vs. roll your own 3) Lump sum vs. (reasonably short) DCA 4) etc...
by Elbowman
Mon Sep 12, 2016 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An "out of sample" test of two specific factor-based portfolios published pre-2008
Replies: 76
Views: 5045

Re: An "out of sample" test of two specific factor-based portfolios published pre-2008

The book promised updates to all the performance data on a website, but, a few years after the crash, when I checked, the website was defunct and the author did not answer an email I sent him. The book is apparently still being sold by Amazon (!) so I have no idea what the story is. Larry, the fact...
by Elbowman
Sun Sep 11, 2016 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Auto Glass in Air Vents
Replies: 4
Views: 456

Auto Glass in Air Vents

Hi Folks! My Google searches have not been as fruitful as I would have liked, so I am hoping someone here has had experience with this. I have a 2007 Chevrolet Malibu LT, and my windshield was smashed in by a vandal. I had it replaced and the car was cleaned, but when I started it and began experime...
by Elbowman
Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity and new Factor-based ETF's
Replies: 6
Views: 547

Re: Fidelity and new Factor-based ETF's

Ugh... eventually the prices for the new factors will come down enough that I can't use ER as an excuse. Then I will be forced to evaluate why I don't either 1) include the whole Factor Zoo in my portfolio or 2) drop SCV. :(
by Elbowman
Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opening a taxable account to take "shots" in the market?
Replies: 12
Views: 639

Re: Opening a taxable account to take "shots" in the market?

There is no financial "sense", but some people take a small fraction of their retirement savings and do this for the purpose of entertainment. You should treat it the same way as going to a casino. It's never something you should do if your only goal is to make money, but rather a luxury t...
by Elbowman
Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Now the time to open S&P 500 Roth IRA?
Replies: 14
Views: 905

Re: Now the time to open S&P 500 Roth IRA?

None of us know for sure where the market will be next month or next year, and you need to disabuse yourself of the the idea that accurate, short term market predictions are possible. You don't by stocks because of where the S&P will be next year, you buy them because of where it will be in 30 y...
by Elbowman
Tue Aug 23, 2016 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Beginner Help Investing for Retirement
Replies: 20
Views: 1268

Re: Beginner Help Investing for Retirement

Here's the deal: given that you have complete control over your investment choices (no company 401(k)), you should be able to follow a very simple (and very good) strategy. 1) Everything you invest in should be zero load, and less than 0.15% ER. 2) It is possible (and is debated here constantly) tha...
by Elbowman
Mon Aug 22, 2016 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sold startup at age 25, need portfolio help!
Replies: 12
Views: 2613

Re: Sold startup at age 25, need portfolio help!

The last thing I'm wondering about is if I the 36-48 month time horizon for dollar cost averaging is appropriate. I really don't want to do it all in one lump sum, but not sure if 48 months is too much time... It probably is too long. A common recommendation I see here is to lump sum half and DCA t...
by Elbowman
Fri Aug 19, 2016 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 7313

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

1) Either you have an ENORMOUS emergency fund, in which case your "100% stocks portfolio" is really just mental accounting, or you can't really guarantee any particular holding period. 2) When everyone whose financial opinion I respect (most of whom have much more experience than me) recom...
by Elbowman
Wed Aug 17, 2016 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ETF for grandchildren
Replies: 4
Views: 312

Re: ETF for grandchildren

Especially if you biased against international, VTI seems like a no-brainer. The caveat is if they are to use these funds for college, in which case 100% stock is probably to aggressive for the seven year old.
by Elbowman
Wed Aug 17, 2016 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends
Replies: 211
Views: 11162

Re: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends

As I've mentioned before, this is why I like VBR. When Larry Swedroe submits some apocalyptic post about how real returns for TSM will be 2% over the next 20 years, and how we better have SCV and EM, I think "good thing I have VBR! With two thirds the loading of DFA, I'll still do fine if value...
by Elbowman
Tue Aug 16, 2016 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How should I classify this employee stock program for allocation purposes?
Replies: 3
Views: 273

Re: How should I classify this employee stock program for allocation purposes?

Assuming the money in the CD is always YOURS, personally, I would not allocate ANY of the possible future returns. I always treated my stock options and held ESPP shares as added bonus money in my financial planning. There are just too many things that could happen with them thru time. Once they pr...
by Elbowman
Mon Jul 25, 2016 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on using Not great Bond Fund in 401k
Replies: 11
Views: 1014

Re: Advice on using Not great Bond Fund in 401k

would balancing be best achieved by allocating some future 401K contributions to the higher ER fund MWTRX to or to make future purchases in my Vanguard taxable account In my opinion, this depends on if you will still be maximizing your 401k contributions in either case . In other words, if the taxa...
by Elbowman
Sat Jul 23, 2016 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to investing
Replies: 9
Views: 654

Re: New to investing

Looks like a fine portfolio! Just be prepared for ~50% declines in stock values, which will happen several times over your lifetime.
by Elbowman
Fri Jul 22, 2016 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Market Increasingly Detached from U.S. Economy
Replies: 19
Views: 2537

Re: U.S. Stock Market Increasingly Detached from U.S. Economy

I'm not sure what the rationale is for paralleling the economy rather than paralleling the market. I'll give it a shot, though this may be a dumber version of what qwertyjazz just said. When you buy TSM (or better yet, Total World), you can take some amount of comfort in thinking "either I wil...
by Elbowman
Fri Jul 22, 2016 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is buy low, sell high the same as market timing?
Replies: 29
Views: 1980

Re: Is buy low, sell high the same as market timing?

Who cares what it's called? You can transact in the market based on valuations, gut feelings, your horoscope, or whatever. What you should care about is if it's a good decision (ex ante). +1. I feel most of the value in the saying "buy low, sell high" is not what it tells you to do, but w...
by Elbowman
Fri Jul 22, 2016 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 403(b) after tax contribution
Replies: 4
Views: 349

Re: 403(b) after tax contribution

What you have found is sometimes referred to on this forum as a Mega Backdoor Roth IRA. That link has many previous posts on this topic, you should check them out. I think it may actually be the case that whether or not you can do this depends on your company's plan. It's really valuable if you have...
by Elbowman
Tue Jul 19, 2016 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: help me with bonds
Replies: 34
Views: 2677

Re: help me with bonds

article and efficient frontier graph both show that bonds reduce returns that is what holds me back The goal of your portfolio is not to have the highest average return, it is to have the highest probability of producing at least what you need . Here is the example that makes it clear for me: imagi...
by Elbowman
Mon Jul 18, 2016 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: mortgage vs investing
Replies: 43
Views: 1980

Re: mortgage vs investing

It would help to know your marginal tax rate and what retirement accounts you have available for contribution. Mortgage vs. taxable investing is one question, and there I'd prefer mortgage. But mortgage vs. tax-advantaged investing is different, there I'd prefer tax-advantaged accounts.
by Elbowman
Fri Jul 15, 2016 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Beginner question on taxable account
Replies: 5
Views: 428

Re: Beginner question on taxable account

Aside from unexpected events that would force me to withdraw money and take a tax hit, what is the best way to manage a taxable account? - should I just refrain from touching investments in my taxable account, and use it only when I'm retired and possibly in a lower tax bracket? Normally, unexpecte...
by Elbowman
Fri Jul 15, 2016 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Student Loan Payoff Assistance
Replies: 12
Views: 973

Re: Student Loan Payoff Assistance

campy2010 wrote:Everything you describe is exactly correct. Put the extra payment toward the highest interest loan, pay the minimum on the others until the high interest loan is paid off.
+1
by Elbowman
Fri Jul 15, 2016 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Options trading
Replies: 33
Views: 2020

Re: Options trading

prettybogle wrote:Yes I am conflicted in my decision on options trading - trying very hard to resist the urge.
Ah yes, I know that urge. For me it was poker :twisted: . Be careful not to rationalize an urge to gamble as "investing".
by Elbowman
Thu Jul 14, 2016 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Dividend ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 980

Re: Vanguard Dividend ETF

Not now. Investors have been chasing yield for almost eight years now. It doesn't seem like a good time to pursue this strategy. When the market hates dividends, that is the time to buy in, not when everyone and his brother are chasing them. +1. Wait for when an article titled "The Death of Di...
by Elbowman
Thu Jul 14, 2016 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Options trading
Replies: 33
Views: 2020

Re: Options trading

Gah! So much noise about all time highs! You expect the market to, on average, go up, right? In that case "all time highs" should be the norm, and "temporarily below the all time high" the exception.
by Elbowman
Thu Jul 14, 2016 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: investing an inheritance
Replies: 35
Views: 3674

Re: investing an inheritance

This market has me on the sidelines. You have you on the sidelines :happy . There is no magic solution which will give you high return without risk. You just have to come to terms with what you can and can't know. What you can't know: if the stock market will crash right after you invest your inher...
by Elbowman
Thu Jul 14, 2016 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio allocation feedback
Replies: 4
Views: 545

Re: Portfolio allocation feedback

A couple things: The good: You are diversified (within equities), and have low costs. These are probably the two most important (non-behavioral) factors in investing. A reality check: That is a 100% equity portfolio. 100% equity doesn't mean certain doom, but you should at least be honest with yours...
by Elbowman
Wed Jul 13, 2016 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to invest taxable funds? Help please
Replies: 9
Views: 830

Re: Where to invest taxable funds? Help please

Total Stock Market is pretty tax efficient. I think the straight forward choice for taxable funds earmarked for retirement is to put them is Vanguard Total Stock Market Index in your taxable account, and maintaining the 67/33 stock/bond ratio for your portfolio as a whole (which may mean increasing ...
by Elbowman
Tue Jul 12, 2016 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fund in taxable account and too good to be true?
Replies: 13
Views: 1640

Re: Fund in taxable account and too good to be true?

2. Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares- EDV Am I missing something here? The returns look too good to be true. WOW! Finally, a bond fund for people who prefer the volatility of emerging market stocks. The return you are seeing is from bond yields decreasing over the last 8 yea...
by Elbowman
Mon Jul 11, 2016 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique my investment plan
Replies: 18
Views: 1477

Re: Critique my investment plan

3. After maxing out Roth IRA, should I keep putting money in to the taxable account? Balance is 90% stocks - 10% bonds. As I will keep the bonds in 403b, I will keep this balance as it is or should I change the allocation? In general retirement savings should not go into taxable until you have maxe...
by Elbowman
Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would like a 3 fund 401k. Can it be done with these 3 funds?
Replies: 4
Views: 564

Re: Would like a 3 fund 401k. Can it be done with these 3 funds?

I'm thinking 3 fund portfolio 50% VINIX 30% WAPSX 20% RERFX Thoughts please Yes, you can make a reasonable three-fund portfolio using those funds in your 401k. You could instead create a three-fund portfolio across all three accounts using only Vanguard Institutional Index VINIX) in the 401k and us...
by Elbowman
Fri Jul 08, 2016 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we start another forum section? [Taxation of Social Security benefits]
Replies: 60
Views: 4674

Re: Can we start another forum section?

I think this is definitely a "teach a man to fish" scenario. Rather than creating a section where responses are limited to those who already understand the hump, your mission should be to teach people who post often about it, creating more people who can give good advice.
by Elbowman
Thu Jul 07, 2016 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monetary policy is (barely) carrying the world
Replies: 29
Views: 1712

Re: Monetary policy is (barely) carrying the world

technovelist wrote:I think this is correct, and the actionable advice is: have some exposure to a money that they can't print.
Governments can't print profitable companies, so most bogleheads already have substantial exposure to assets which can't be printed.
by Elbowman
Thu Jul 07, 2016 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P only good fund in my 401k. Worth investing less in 401k and more in taxable account?
Replies: 8
Views: 599

Re: S&P only good fund in my 401k. Worth investing less in 401k and more in taxable account?

Another no vote. First, the benefit of avoiding capital gains tax, avoiding dividend tax, and paying income tax at a lower bracket (typical in retirement) is substantial, I wouldn't count on a significantly larger benefit from SCV. Second, avoiding taxes is risk free return, while small caps come wi...
by Elbowman
Thu Jul 07, 2016 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please take a look at my asset allocation
Replies: 4
Views: 469

Re: Please take a look at my asset allocation

One of the most important parts of your asset allocation is to stick with it, as people have a knack for (consciously or unconsciously) performance chasing when they switch their AA too much, and this tends to lose money. Because of this, my advice is to read All About Asset Allocation by Rick Ferri...
by Elbowman
Wed Jul 06, 2016 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mispricing contributes to the Value Premium
Replies: 8
Views: 915

Re: Mispricing contributes to the Value Premium

In a sense VBR is for those who seek a mixture, not just pure SCV factor but also significantly more beta exposure, closer to the middle of the road. For those who want some SCV exposure but don't want to bet the house on factor investing, it may be a good choice and may be easier to hold onto duri...
by Elbowman
Wed Jul 06, 2016 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mispricing contributes to the Value Premium
Replies: 8
Views: 915

Re: Mispricing contributes to the Value Premium

I'm having trouble squaring these two quotes, from your post and from the article: Another paper showing that this isn't likely either a purely behavioral nor a purely risk based premium. It's grey, not black or white, with some elements of both Among firms where the expectations implied by their cu...
by Elbowman
Wed Jun 29, 2016 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: lowering 401k management fees...dfa funds avail.
Replies: 4
Views: 343

Re: lowering 401k management fees...dfa funds avail.

You join in 2012, you've probably seen that the forum is divided on DFA :) . Personally I'd do the three fund in your 401k, and if you want to tilt you can use a low cost option in your IRA.
by Elbowman
Wed Jun 29, 2016 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Bogleheads position on Long-term successful daytraders?
Replies: 88
Views: 5259

Re: What is the Bogleheads position on Long-term successful daytraders?

Why is it so difficult to admit that there are actually people who can make money consistently doing this, and that it is an actual skill (i.e. Michael Burry)? I don't think the roulette table example applies. Being an NBA all star is a skill as well. What percentage of people (who otherwise have t...
by Elbowman
Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would today be a good day to rebalance?
Replies: 34
Views: 3390

Re: Would today be a good day to rebalance?

Maybe it's market timing, but it would be an OK thing to do. Rebalancing is never THAT bad (as a strategy, it may be bad in hindsight but you should ignore that), especially if you can do it for free in a tax advantaged account. People can get a little too dogmatic about market timing, focusing too ...
by Elbowman
Fri May 27, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New job - Need help brainstorming ideas
Replies: 8
Views: 848

Re: New job - Need help brainstorming ideas

Putting 100% of your 401k contributions into that one index equity fund would not be unreasonable. +1. What are the index equity fund and the the fees for it? Unfortunately, it's not that uncommon to have a single S&P 500 index be the only decent fund in a 401k, and buying only that (plus bonds...
by Elbowman
Thu May 26, 2016 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TLH only useful until maxing out 401k, IRA?
Replies: 3
Views: 526

Re: TLH only useful until maxing out 401k, IRA?

njboater74 wrote:I think the author just means that you'd be better off contributing to a 401k or IRA rather than investing in a taxable account and doing TLH.

+1, that's my impression too.
by Elbowman
Tue May 24, 2016 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Feedback
Replies: 5
Views: 361

Re: Asset Allocation Feedback

Why Small Growth + Small Value? Did you mean Small Blend + Small Value? Small Growth + Small Value more or less equals Small Blend, so you could do 30% Small Blend and have a simpler portfolio with the same properties. As far as rental properties as fixed income, they really have different behavior....
by Elbowman
Tue May 24, 2016 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a new look at the size premium
Replies: 44
Views: 4228

Re: a new look at the size premium

Thanks Larry
larryswedroe wrote:Small overall has vol of about 28% versus about 20% for large or about 40% more volatile
How consistent is this? Is there data on the relative volatility of small per decade?
by Elbowman
Tue May 24, 2016 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a new look at the size premium
Replies: 44
Views: 4228

Re: a new look at the size premium

But simply looking at VOL, one measure of risk and you see MUCH higher vol for small stocks, and investors are risk averse and demand premiums for bearing that higher risks, especially downside risk which is greater for small stocks Should VOL (volatility?) be apparent the chart I posted? The Small...

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