Search found 358 matches

by Elbowman
Sat Jul 23, 2016 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to investing
Replies: 2
Views: 179

Re: New to investing

Looks like a fine portfolio! Just be prepared for ~50% declines in stock values, which will happen several times over your lifetime.
by Elbowman
Fri Jul 22, 2016 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Market Increasingly Detached from U.S. Economy
Replies: 17
Views: 1953

Re: U.S. Stock Market Increasingly Detached from U.S. Economy

I'm not sure what the rationale is for paralleling the economy rather than paralleling the market. I'll give it a shot, though this may be a dumber version of what qwertyjazz just said. When you buy TSM (or better yet, Total World), you can take some amount of comfort in thinking "either I wil...
by Elbowman
Fri Jul 22, 2016 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is buy low, sell high the same as market timing?
Replies: 29
Views: 1725

Re: Is buy low, sell high the same as market timing?

Who cares what it's called? You can transact in the market based on valuations, gut feelings, your horoscope, or whatever. What you should care about is if it's a good decision (ex ante). +1. I feel most of the value in the saying "buy low, sell high" is not what it tells you to do, but w...
by Elbowman
Fri Jul 22, 2016 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 403(b) after tax contribution
Replies: 4
Views: 271

Re: 403(b) after tax contribution

What you have found is sometimes referred to on this forum as a Mega Backdoor Roth IRA. That link has many previous posts on this topic, you should check them out. I think it may actually be the case that whether or not you can do this depends on your company's plan. It's really valuable if you have...
by Elbowman
Tue Jul 19, 2016 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: help me with bonds
Replies: 34
Views: 2439

Re: help me with bonds

article and efficient frontier graph both show that bonds reduce returns that is what holds me back The goal of your portfolio is not to have the highest average return, it is to have the highest probability of producing at least what you need . Here is the example that makes it clear for me: imagi...
by Elbowman
Mon Jul 18, 2016 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: mortgage vs investing
Replies: 43
Views: 1757

Re: mortgage vs investing

It would help to know your marginal tax rate and what retirement accounts you have available for contribution. Mortgage vs. taxable investing is one question, and there I'd prefer mortgage. But mortgage vs. tax-advantaged investing is different, there I'd prefer tax-advantaged accounts.
by Elbowman
Fri Jul 15, 2016 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Beginner question on taxable account
Replies: 5
Views: 388

Re: Beginner question on taxable account

Aside from unexpected events that would force me to withdraw money and take a tax hit, what is the best way to manage a taxable account? - should I just refrain from touching investments in my taxable account, and use it only when I'm retired and possibly in a lower tax bracket? Normally, unexpecte...
by Elbowman
Fri Jul 15, 2016 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Student Loan Payoff Assistance
Replies: 12
Views: 889

Re: Student Loan Payoff Assistance

campy2010 wrote:Everything you describe is exactly correct. Put the extra payment toward the highest interest loan, pay the minimum on the others until the high interest loan is paid off.
+1
by Elbowman
Fri Jul 15, 2016 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Options trading
Replies: 33
Views: 1891

Re: Options trading

prettybogle wrote:Yes I am conflicted in my decision on options trading - trying very hard to resist the urge.
Ah yes, I know that urge. For me it was poker :twisted: . Be careful not to rationalize an urge to gamble as "investing".
by Elbowman
Thu Jul 14, 2016 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Dividend ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 903

Re: Vanguard Dividend ETF

Not now. Investors have been chasing yield for almost eight years now. It doesn't seem like a good time to pursue this strategy. When the market hates dividends, that is the time to buy in, not when everyone and his brother are chasing them. +1. Wait for when an article titled "The Death of Di...
by Elbowman
Thu Jul 14, 2016 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Options trading
Replies: 33
Views: 1891

Re: Options trading

Gah! So much noise about all time highs! You expect the market to, on average, go up, right? In that case "all time highs" should be the norm, and "temporarily below the all time high" the exception.
by Elbowman
Thu Jul 14, 2016 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: investing an inheritance
Replies: 15
Views: 1563

Re: investing an inheritance

This market has me on the sidelines. You have you on the sidelines :happy . There is no magic solution which will give you high return without risk. You just have to come to terms with what you can and can't know. What you can't know: if the stock market will crash right after you invest your inher...
by Elbowman
Thu Jul 14, 2016 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio allocation feedback
Replies: 4
Views: 498

Re: Portfolio allocation feedback

A couple things: The good: You are diversified (within equities), and have low costs. These are probably the two most important (non-behavioral) factors in investing. A reality check: That is a 100% equity portfolio. 100% equity doesn't mean certain doom, but you should at least be honest with yours...
by Elbowman
Wed Jul 13, 2016 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to invest taxable funds? Help please
Replies: 9
Views: 791

Re: Where to invest taxable funds? Help please

Total Stock Market is pretty tax efficient. I think the straight forward choice for taxable funds earmarked for retirement is to put them is Vanguard Total Stock Market Index in your taxable account, and maintaining the 67/33 stock/bond ratio for your portfolio as a whole (which may mean increasing ...
by Elbowman
Tue Jul 12, 2016 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fund in taxable account and too good to be true?
Replies: 13
Views: 1559

Re: Fund in taxable account and too good to be true?

2. Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares- EDV Am I missing something here? The returns look too good to be true. WOW! Finally, a bond fund for people who prefer the volatility of emerging market stocks. The return you are seeing is from bond yields decreasing over the last 8 yea...
by Elbowman
Mon Jul 11, 2016 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique my investment plan
Replies: 18
Views: 1395

Re: Critique my investment plan

3. After maxing out Roth IRA, should I keep putting money in to the taxable account? Balance is 90% stocks - 10% bonds. As I will keep the bonds in 403b, I will keep this balance as it is or should I change the allocation? In general retirement savings should not go into taxable until you have maxe...
by Elbowman
Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would like a 3 fund 401k. Can it be done with these 3 funds?
Replies: 4
Views: 519

Re: Would like a 3 fund 401k. Can it be done with these 3 funds?

I'm thinking 3 fund portfolio 50% VINIX 30% WAPSX 20% RERFX Thoughts please Yes, you can make a reasonable three-fund portfolio using those funds in your 401k. You could instead create a three-fund portfolio across all three accounts using only Vanguard Institutional Index VINIX) in the 401k and us...
by Elbowman
Fri Jul 08, 2016 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we start another forum section? [Taxation of Social Security benefits]
Replies: 60
Views: 4384

Re: Can we start another forum section?

I think this is definitely a "teach a man to fish" scenario. Rather than creating a section where responses are limited to those who already understand the hump, your mission should be to teach people who post often about it, creating more people who can give good advice.
by Elbowman
Thu Jul 07, 2016 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monetary policy is (barely) carrying the world
Replies: 29
Views: 1572

Re: Monetary policy is (barely) carrying the world

technovelist wrote:I think this is correct, and the actionable advice is: have some exposure to a money that they can't print.
Governments can't print profitable companies, so most bogleheads already have substantial exposure to assets which can't be printed.
by Elbowman
Thu Jul 07, 2016 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P only good fund in my 401k. Worth investing less in 401k and more in taxable account?
Replies: 8
Views: 528

Re: S&P only good fund in my 401k. Worth investing less in 401k and more in taxable account?

Another no vote. First, the benefit of avoiding capital gains tax, avoiding dividend tax, and paying income tax at a lower bracket (typical in retirement) is substantial, I wouldn't count on a significantly larger benefit from SCV. Second, avoiding taxes is risk free return, while small caps come wi...
by Elbowman
Thu Jul 07, 2016 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please take a look at my asset allocation
Replies: 4
Views: 403

Re: Please take a look at my asset allocation

One of the most important parts of your asset allocation is to stick with it, as people have a knack for (consciously or unconsciously) performance chasing when they switch their AA too much, and this tends to lose money. Because of this, my advice is to read All About Asset Allocation by Rick Ferri...
by Elbowman
Wed Jul 06, 2016 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mispricing contributes to the Value Premium
Replies: 8
Views: 840

Re: Mispricing contributes to the Value Premium

In a sense VBR is for those who seek a mixture, not just pure SCV factor but also significantly more beta exposure, closer to the middle of the road. For those who want some SCV exposure but don't want to bet the house on factor investing, it may be a good choice and may be easier to hold onto duri...
by Elbowman
Wed Jul 06, 2016 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mispricing contributes to the Value Premium
Replies: 8
Views: 840

Re: Mispricing contributes to the Value Premium

I'm having trouble squaring these two quotes, from your post and from the article: Another paper showing that this isn't likely either a purely behavioral nor a purely risk based premium. It's grey, not black or white, with some elements of both Among firms where the expectations implied by their cu...
by Elbowman
Wed Jun 29, 2016 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: lowering 401k management fees...dfa funds avail.
Replies: 4
Views: 318

Re: lowering 401k management fees...dfa funds avail.

You join in 2012, you've probably seen that the forum is divided on DFA :) . Personally I'd do the three fund in your 401k, and if you want to tilt you can use a low cost option in your IRA.
by Elbowman
Wed Jun 29, 2016 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Bogleheads position on Long-term successful daytraders?
Replies: 88
Views: 4877

Re: What is the Bogleheads position on Long-term successful daytraders?

Why is it so difficult to admit that there are actually people who can make money consistently doing this, and that it is an actual skill (i.e. Michael Burry)? I don't think the roulette table example applies. Being an NBA all star is a skill as well. What percentage of people (who otherwise have t...
by Elbowman
Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would today be a good day to rebalance?
Replies: 34
Views: 3302

Re: Would today be a good day to rebalance?

Maybe it's market timing, but it would be an OK thing to do. Rebalancing is never THAT bad (as a strategy, it may be bad in hindsight but you should ignore that), especially if you can do it for free in a tax advantaged account. People can get a little too dogmatic about market timing, focusing too ...
by Elbowman
Fri May 27, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New job - Need help brainstorming ideas
Replies: 8
Views: 825

Re: New job - Need help brainstorming ideas

Putting 100% of your 401k contributions into that one index equity fund would not be unreasonable. +1. What are the index equity fund and the the fees for it? Unfortunately, it's not that uncommon to have a single S&P 500 index be the only decent fund in a 401k, and buying only that (plus bonds...
by Elbowman
Thu May 26, 2016 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TLH only useful until maxing out 401k, IRA?
Replies: 3
Views: 492

Re: TLH only useful until maxing out 401k, IRA?

njboater74 wrote:I think the author just means that you'd be better off contributing to a 401k or IRA rather than investing in a taxable account and doing TLH.

+1, that's my impression too.
by Elbowman
Tue May 24, 2016 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Feedback
Replies: 5
Views: 326

Re: Asset Allocation Feedback

Why Small Growth + Small Value? Did you mean Small Blend + Small Value? Small Growth + Small Value more or less equals Small Blend, so you could do 30% Small Blend and have a simpler portfolio with the same properties. As far as rental properties as fixed income, they really have different behavior....
by Elbowman
Tue May 24, 2016 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a new look at the size premium
Replies: 44
Views: 4059

Re: a new look at the size premium

Thanks Larry
larryswedroe wrote:Small overall has vol of about 28% versus about 20% for large or about 40% more volatile
How consistent is this? Is there data on the relative volatility of small per decade?
by Elbowman
Tue May 24, 2016 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a new look at the size premium
Replies: 44
Views: 4059

Re: a new look at the size premium

But simply looking at VOL, one measure of risk and you see MUCH higher vol for small stocks, and investors are risk averse and demand premiums for bearing that higher risks, especially downside risk which is greater for small stocks Should VOL (volatility?) be apparent the chart I posted? The Small...
by Elbowman
Tue May 24, 2016 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a new look at the size premium
Replies: 44
Views: 4059

Re: a new look at the size premium

Hey Larry, thanks for responding! I am not reassured by "it happened in the past" arguments since one of the more important properties of financial markets that increased exploitation should cause risk-free or "risk-lite" return to shrink if not disappear. I expect more of a &quo...
by Elbowman
Mon May 23, 2016 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a new look at the size premium
Replies: 44
Views: 4059

Re: a new look at the size premium

Random Walker, Thanks for the additional information. I understand that if you start from the belief that the size and value premiums will persist at something close to their historical norms (in terms of degree and correlation), then a portfolio which generates it's return from 33% market, 33% size...
by Elbowman
Sun May 22, 2016 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a new look at the size premium
Replies: 44
Views: 4059

Re: a new look at the size premium

Elbowman You have to look at each of the factors because they each help explain returns. But yes that is what it means. Now you also have other issues which end up in the alpha--fund expenses, trading costs. Larry Thanks Larry, thats actually quite reassuring. For some reason I got the impression t...
by Elbowman
Fri May 20, 2016 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a new look at the size premium
Replies: 44
Views: 4059

Re: a new look at the size premium

Sorry for a noob-ish question about factor loading, but if the Vanguard fund has 2/3rds the factor loading of DFA micro-caps, does that mean it would (of should) have captured 2/3rds of the premium that DFA captured?
by Elbowman
Fri May 20, 2016 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Limited History for Backtesting
Replies: 7
Views: 379

Re: Limited History for Backtesting

And, of course, you should recognize the limitations of backtesting in any subject where knowledge of the past affects the present and future. The more fine grained your testing gets the less likely it is to be predictive going forward.
by Elbowman
Fri May 20, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Critique
Replies: 4
Views: 419

Re: Portfolio Critique

Did Vanguard really recommend VWIGX (Vanguard International Growth Fund (ER=0.47%)) when you had the option of Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Institutional Shares? Was VTSNX added after they made their recommendation? I am surprised because VTSNX is much better than VWIGX, and you sho...
by Elbowman
Fri May 20, 2016 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging markets value premium
Replies: 10
Views: 992

Re: Emerging markets value premium

Lots of discussion already, the top right search option is super useful: https://www.google.com/search?sitesearc ... ue+premium
by Elbowman
Wed May 18, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing passively in inefficient markets
Replies: 11
Views: 993

Re: Investing passively in inefficient markets

Before costs the market IS the average active investor, and after costs it will outperform the average active investor everywhere, every time. You seem to be suggesting that in emerging markets it is possible to separate, beforehand, the active investors who will outperform from active investors who...
by Elbowman
Tue May 17, 2016 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My friend wants to invest money; please review my advice for her
Replies: 44
Views: 3461

Re: My friend wants to invest money; please review my advice for her

is she willing to learn on her own by reading ... William Bernstein's e-book If You Can +1 to this, including reading all the books he suggests in that paper. Tell her that doing the right thing in the beginning is the easy part of investing. The hard part is not doing the wrong thing for the next ...
by Elbowman
Fri May 06, 2016 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help with bond/fixed income side of portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1625

Re: Please help with bond/fixed income side of portfolio

Nah, just stick with Total Bond Market. Out of the options you have, the first four: Janus Short term bond (T) JASBX 0.84 Double Line Total Return Bond (N) DLTNX 0.72 Pimco Income Fund I PIMIX 0.45 Metropolitan West Total Return Bond M MWTRX 0.69 can be discarded immediately, they are far too expens...
by Elbowman
Thu May 05, 2016 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Northwestern Mutual Bad option?
Replies: 13
Views: 1601

Re: Northwestern Mutual Bad option?

Yes, for investing it is a bad option. Whole life is a bad option from anyone. Stop working with the NWM financial planner (for investing at least), they already have and will presumably continue to steer you towards bad investments that make them the most money. The fees from a 401k have to be real...
by Elbowman
Thu May 05, 2016 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Evaluate two portfolios
Replies: 2
Views: 360

Re: Evaluate two portfolios

Hi Robert, welcome to Bogleheads! Here are a couple links you should check out: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio I dare say you selected those funds (MGK and EDV) by looking at the past performance numbers? In particular, when someo...
by Elbowman
Fri Apr 29, 2016 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Markets Have ‘Borrowed’ Returns from the Future”
Replies: 17
Views: 2764

Re: “Markets Have ‘Borrowed’ Returns from the Future”

That's probably accurate. To some extent that's the Fed's job, to smooth out the boom and bust cycle.
by Elbowman
Wed Apr 27, 2016 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA - Target fund vs total market
Replies: 4
Views: 432

Re: IRA - Target fund vs total market

Ignoring the difference in asset allocation between TSM and TR (which others have mentioned), there is nothing wrong with holding the individual funds which compromise the TR in order to save 0.05%-0.1%. A little bit more work, a little bit more return ($70k seems high, but I could see it being in t...
by Elbowman
Wed Apr 27, 2016 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Long and Short of It
Replies: 16
Views: 2100

Re: The Long and Short of It

My feelings on this (which I believe are shared by many on this forum) comes down to a faith in the aggregate human ingenuity which comprises the market. Exploitable inefficiencies (risk adjusted return greater than the market) should not persist. The return of the average investor can not be greate...
by Elbowman
Fri Apr 22, 2016 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need suggestions to earn at least 2% with low risk and high liquidity
Replies: 11
Views: 1257

Re: Need suggestions to earn at least 2% with low risk and high liquidity

Target Retirement is 30% stocks, so a 15% loss could easily happen.
by Elbowman
Fri Apr 22, 2016 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First time investor, nervous about dropping $150.000 into the market
Replies: 8
Views: 2198

Re: First time investor, nervous about dropping $150.000 into the market

Your proposed portfolio looks fine, provided you stay the course . It would be easy to select three different portfolios, each fine on their own and likely to produce good long term returns over the next 30 years. However, if you were to frequently switch between those three portfolios based on the ...
by Elbowman
Mon Apr 18, 2016 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Lazy Portfolio's work with Active Funds?
Replies: 4
Views: 598

Re: Do Lazy Portfolio's work with Active Funds?

Depends on the cost difference. If your 401k has a S&P 500 index for 0.1% and the active funds cost 1.0%, I doubt they are worth the diversification. In that case I'd just fill a Roth IRA with low cost international and call it good enough.
by Elbowman
Fri Apr 15, 2016 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to park $$$ while DCA/VCA
Replies: 31
Views: 1277

Re: Where to park $$$ while DCA/VCA

What attracts me to DCA/VCA is that it provides some hedge against 2016 being the next 2008 (or 2000, etc.). Becoming 100% vested at the market top just prior to a catastrophic bear market would be a travesty. Having some protection against the next market downturn is a fine goal. I do it myself (a...

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