Search found 1971 matches

by Dulocracy
Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance
Replies: 35
Views: 1754

Re: Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance

[quote="slickwillbo"]To answer a few of the questions: @greg24, @Dulocracy: I don't know exactly what livesoft does, but he has mentioned that he increases his stock allocation in response to RBDs. I'm using 5%/30 days just as a guideline because I like round numbers. You are welcome to pl...
by Dulocracy
Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"
Replies: 101
Views: 5345

Re: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"

This is true, but waiting for a "buying opportunity" can cause you to ultimately buy at a higher price than when you first had the money available and earmarked for investing in that asset. That is the actionability of the concept. If you're merely saying that today is a better opportunit...
by Dulocracy
Fri Jul 01, 2016 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"
Replies: 101
Views: 5345

Re: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"

To be clear, that is NOT what we are talking about here. We are not talking about ONLY investing on RBDs. We are talking about DCA investing with rebalancing on RBDs. Numerous posts on this site show that rebalancing on RBDs does increase returns. I don't think the posts on this site show anything ...
by Dulocracy
Fri Jul 01, 2016 1:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Forgot to file 8949 - should I amend?
Replies: 3
Views: 505

Re: Forgot to file 8949 - should I amend?

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:Many posters here disagree with my opinion.

Yes, you should file an amended return with form 8949, even if it doesn't change your tax for the year in question. That way everybody's paperwork will say the same thing, thus reducing the likelihood of future misunderstandings.

PJW


Agreed.
by Dulocracy
Fri Jul 01, 2016 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance
Replies: 35
Views: 1754

Re: Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance

Thank you for your analysis, but this is a discussion of apples and oranges. Because most of us do not rebalance our portfolios on a daily basis (nor does my 401k allow such a thing, to my knowledge), this is a bad comparison. Many in fact continuously re-balance, by virtue of owning balanced or ta...
by Dulocracy
Fri Jul 01, 2016 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"
Replies: 101
Views: 5345

Re: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"

On some other thread someone posted some research comparing purchasing only on RBDs vs. the good old fashioned DCA/buy every X period strategy, and if I recall, the RBD strategy either did nothing or close to nothing to improve returns. To be clear, that is NOT what we are talking about here. We ar...
by Dulocracy
Fri Jul 01, 2016 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance
Replies: 35
Views: 1754

Re: Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance

livesoft and I were having a discussion on RBD (really bad day) strategy in another thread.... Thank you for your analysis, but this is a discussion of apples and oranges. Because most of us do not rebalance our portfolios on a daily basis (nor does my 401k allow such a thing, to my knowledge), thi...
by Dulocracy
Fri Jul 01, 2016 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Safe, affordable European cities to travel?
Replies: 38
Views: 3559

Re: Safe, affordable European cities to travel?

It is important to note that, with the current migrant issues, "safe" city is a relative term. Crime is often a result of desperate people. Increase the number of desperate people, and you wind up with more crime. Invest in passport carriers that go around your neck (and under your clothes...
by Dulocracy
Fri Jul 01, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best martial arts for kids fitness?
Replies: 28
Views: 1646

Re: Best martial arts for kids fitness?

Boxing. If you are not worried about the ability to fight in the street, this is the way to go. With its constant movement, boxing is by far the most energy consuming martial art in which I have been involved. A lot of boxing is footwork, despite people's thought that it is all about punching.
by Dulocracy
Fri Jul 01, 2016 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: As a new investor that is still learning I am making it through Brexit!
Replies: 31
Views: 2834

Re: As a new investor that is still learning I am making it through Brexit!

Stocks were only down on the Brexit day and the following Monday. I'm a little concerned you called your FA after only a 2 day drop. Not trying to be a negative Nancy but this might be a sign your stock allocation is too high. If this spooked you, let me tell you, you aint seen nuthin' yet. The sto...
by Dulocracy
Fri Jul 01, 2016 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off mortgage immediately? Or keep plugging along?
Replies: 57
Views: 4163

Re: Pay off mortgage immediately? Or keep plugging along?

Yes, OP is in a single-income household, and would be absolutely crazy to pay it off right now and leave so little in cash for emergencies. While the Roth IRAs can be used as EF, that is not very wise as the opportunity to contribute again will be lost if the funds are not redeposited within 60 day...
by Dulocracy
Fri Jul 01, 2016 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000?
Replies: 973
Views: 215931

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

roymeo wrote:
Been 10 years since I was there, but far too much of ATL was all about the new money conspicuous consumption. :)


Unfortunately, that has not changed.
by Dulocracy
Fri Jul 01, 2016 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at REITs, and a new study
Replies: 52
Views: 4375

Re: A look at REITs, and a new study

Thank you for the article. My wife and I have an allocation to REITs, but we have put the purchase of new REITs on hold until returns come back into reasonable territory.
by Dulocracy
Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Back for Advice- 401k
Replies: 9
Views: 664

Re: Back for Advice- 401k

I would do the following, based on those options: Of the US portion, if you want market weighting, do: 70% Vanguard 500 Index Fund #540 .05% 20% VMCIX Vanguard Mid Cap Index .08% 10% Vanguard Small cap Index AD .09% If you want a size tilt, go: 50% Vanguard 500 Index Fund #540 .05% 25% VMCIX Vanguar...
by Dulocracy
Wed Jun 29, 2016 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"
Replies: 101
Views: 5345

Re: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"

Fine, but I would suggest to Livesoft that (s)he simply reallocate whenever his/her allocation happens to be off. This means (s)he will reallocate on both good days and bad days. That seems to be more in line with the data. A very good point. I believe this is what livesoft does. (I use livesoft as...
by Dulocracy
Wed Jun 29, 2016 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: pay of mortgage on second home question
Replies: 5
Views: 486

Re: pay of mortgage on second home question

See Paying down loans versus investing on the wiki. Since you are planning to sell this home in seven years, you will get the full benefit of your payoff in seven years, so you are effectively buying a 7-year CD at 3.875% with the money you pay on the mortgage. That is a very good deal. That is a v...
by Dulocracy
Wed Jun 29, 2016 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a friend's student loans?
Replies: 21
Views: 2327

Re: Buying a friend's student loans?

No. 1000 times no. As others have mentioned, this person would be getting rid of a bankrupt-proof loan and taking a loan easily discharged in bankruptcy. If the lender wants 6% based on your friend's ability to pay back on a loan that cannot be gotten rid of in bankruptcy, why would you offer lower ...
by Dulocracy
Wed Jun 29, 2016 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"
Replies: 101
Views: 5345

Re: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"

Had the price remained the same yesterday, I would estimate my *future* (from today) expected annual return to be x%, with y volatility. Had the price dropped yesterday, I would estimate my *future* (from today) expected annual return to be x%, with y volatility. (I.e., exactly the same.) Had the p...
by Dulocracy
Wed Jun 29, 2016 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"
Replies: 101
Views: 5345

Re: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"

To try to clarify even more: When you say "returns are better after a recent drop", you simply mean it's better to have bought after the drop than before it. Obviously true and indisputable. When I say "returns are *not* better after a recent drop", I mean that the expected *fut...
by Dulocracy
Wed Jun 29, 2016 12:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000?
Replies: 973
Views: 215931

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

Probably wouldn't matter, unless subconsciously. If he was wearing a Rolex, it might actually disturb me a little, figure he was going to get it back in fees. But that's just cheapskate me, so you might not want me as a client.. Actually, our firm focuses on upper middle to upper class individuals ...
by Dulocracy
Wed Jun 29, 2016 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off mortgage immediately? Or keep plugging along?
Replies: 57
Views: 4163

Re: Pay off mortgage immediately? Or keep plugging along?

Pay the mortgage off. It is very liberating to own your house and a job loss won't force you to sell. Dottie57, Really? OP has only 5K of Emergency Fund if he does that. With annual income of 150K, he would be selling something from retirement accounts in a few months. After one to two years of une...
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"
Replies: 101
Views: 5345

Re: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"

Any positive amount. I'm saying I've seen no evidence that a "wait to buy after big drops" will provide *any* advantage over just buying when you have the money. Herein we have the problem. Many agree that you should not wait for drops. The expression on this site about stocks being on sa...
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off mortgage immediately? Or keep plugging along?
Replies: 57
Views: 4163

Re: Pay off mortgage immediately? Or keep plugging along?

Maybe I should put all these answers in a blender and get a mix. I like Dulocracy's approach. $115k cash pile -$20K for EF -$30-$45K house repair (kitchen needs work, plus other things) -$50-65K to investments....maybe $10K each to kids college to boost those, then the other $30-45K to taxable. Van...
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Alternatives to Traditional Pasta?
Replies: 52
Views: 3016

Re: Alternatives to Traditional Pasta?

My wife uses spinach as a substitute, and it works well. Spinach as the base with veggies and sauce on top. Tastes delicious. I am not sure how that would translate to a salad, however.
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...
Replies: 158
Views: 10147

Re: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...

This is a GREAT buying opportunity. I like buying during buying opportunities. However, I am also prudent. I will not tap my emergency fund. I recently needed money for other things. In the recent downturn, I only had a little money in my Fidelity rewards account that I recently got in the way of ca...
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Comparing corporate bonds with tax-exempt munis
Replies: 10
Views: 833

Re: Comparing corporate bonds with tax-exempt munis

There is much worse junk out there, so it's fine if you don't want to call High-Yield "junk", but it's definitely taking credit risk, so it's junk-lite. I am going to steal that term. I have this argument with a friend all the time. He says he is not investing in junk bonds. I will tell h...
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small Value Tilt 4x25 Question
Replies: 5
Views: 440

Re: Small Value Tilt 4x25 Question

For the US portion, a "healthy" tilt (not too far) would likely look something like this: 25% 500 fund 25% Large Value 25% Mid Cap 25% Small Cap Value This gives you an additional 5% to Mid caps and an additional 15% to small caps (focused on value). I probably go too far, as my makeup is:...
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buy VTIAX (total stock international) today or drip in over next week/month
Replies: 8
Views: 1228

Re: Buy VTIAX (total stock international) today or drip in over next week/month

Consider following your IPS by rebalancing to international with new money up to the point that it is even. Then use new money to buy your entire allocation.
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why You Should Question “Buy And Hold” Advice
Replies: 24
Views: 3695

Re: Why You Should Question “Buy And Hold” Advice

I stopped reading when I saw the chart of "actual growth" from 2016 to 2070. I'm going all cash in 2029 and buying back in when the market bottoms out in 2031. :moneybag That's awesome, I'm writing it down. I always say to friends who keep shoving "sell everything, all gonna die"...
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000?
Replies: 973
Views: 215931

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

For those with nicer tastes in watches, I am curious (for an actionable reason): Do you judge those who do not share your love of watches in a professional setting. If you were hiring an attorney, would you be less likely to hire a male attorney who did not wear a watch. (Presume he likes suits, is ...
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What price is reasonable in U.S. for two crowns?
Replies: 22
Views: 2165

Re: What price is reasonable in U.S. for two crowns?

At first, I was going to comment that if for a "king" and "queen", the female crown is typically smaller because males have big heads. When I realized what the topic was ACTUALLY about, my response is this: Laser eye surgery, dental work, and similar procedures: I am much more mo...
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard Total International] ETF currently down 7.09% - Time to sell?
Replies: 39
Views: 4053

Re: [Vanguard Total International] ETF currently down 7.09% - Time to sell?

My 401k is set to purchase according to my asset allocation. I plan on changing nothing with it.

I DID make one change: My Fidelity rewards card had a little money I could invest, so I BOUGHT a whole, whopping 3 shares if IEUR.
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trasnfer IRA to 401k to do backdoor Roth
Replies: 4
Views: 295

Re: Trasnfer IRA to 401k to do backdoor Roth

Based on the advice of a CPA that I know for a client for whom I am creating a trust, the best way to do this is as follows: 1) Transfer the money from the IRA to 401k this year. 2) Fund the non-deductible IRA this year. 3) Wait until next year. 4) Fund next year's non-deductible IRA. 5) Wait one mo...
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig: The More It Hurts, the More You Make
Replies: 35
Views: 6157

Re: Jason Zweig: The More It Hurts, the More You Make

zaboomafoozarg wrote:I focus on the pain... it's the only thing that's real.


The EMO investor. I like it.
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Friday & today were painful days - what can we expect?
Replies: 27
Views: 2440

Re: Friday & today were painful days - what can we expect?

What to expect: 1) Markets are uncertain when there is political change. 2) With two years to negotiate deals, the business environment will probably be the same or somewhat equivalent to what you see now. 3) Prices are low, creating a buying opportunity. That is, if you have money sitting aside to ...
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Whole House Dehumidifier?
Replies: 17
Views: 1498

Re: Whole House Dehumidifier?

A whole house dehumidifier can allow you to keep your thermostat at a higher temperature in the summer, and it can improve the quality of your life. If it is important to you (and you can easily afford it), it can make life more enjoyable. If you live in Georgia, I can give you a referral to a guy t...
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help me choose bond funds for my 401(k)
Replies: 8
Views: 719

Re: Please help me choose bond funds for my 401(k)

There is one fund I would say is an absolute. 4- Total Bond Market Fund Depending on your investment strategy, there is a second fund I would consider as well: 2. Inflation protection bond fund. It is important to note that EXPECTED inflation is built in to the return of most bond funds. UNEXPECTED ...
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lending Club
Replies: 32
Views: 2503

Re: Lending Club

Whatever the news, I have a friend that is making bank on Lending Club using some automated computer model. On the flip side, I was never really comfortable making unsecured loans to strangers, so I have decided it is beyond the risk level I am willing to tolerate in the fixed income side of my port...
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 163
Views: 64668

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Johnnie wrote:Every time I catch myself thinking I know something about what's going to happen I hear Schultzie snickering in the background.


That is a nice built-in safety net you have there!
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Plunge and Panic-Do You Get It Now?
Replies: 108
Views: 12228

Re: Plunge and Panic-Do You Get It Now?

To answer some questions and comment on some ideas: Why did the US drop, are the companies now less strong? Yes. The dollar is stronger, meaning our goods are more expensive internationally. The small bump was probably appropriate. It will even out, though. As pointed out by OP: Much of this is the ...
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pfau: Why Bond Funds Don't Belong in Retirement Portfolios
Replies: 138
Views: 17911

Re: Pfau: Why Bond Funds Don't Belong in Retirement Portfolios

The issue here is you cannot simply ask the reader to spot the flaw and if he can't he should shut up and accept the results. Flaws, even very important ones, can be hard to spot even by experts much less by lay people. It pays to be skeptical even if you can't spot just what the magician did. True...
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NYTimes: Money Letter Every Parent Should Write
Replies: 16
Views: 5301

Re: NYTimes: Money Letter Every Parent Should Write

Thanks for sharing. I drafted one of these for my wife after my death... Wait, you are writing this from the great beyond? Cool. But seriously, why wouldn't you share it with here now - if you think it would help her better understand finances, why should she have to wait until your death for the e...
by Dulocracy
Tue Jun 28, 2016 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off mortgage immediately? Or keep plugging along?
Replies: 57
Views: 4163

Re: Pay off mortgage immediately? Or keep plugging along?

Ok, so you have $115,000 sitting in cash wasting away... inflation whittling away your asset. We need to fix that. First, subtract your emergency fund. You stated $20,000, so I will use that. This leaves you with $95,000. It would be better to throw that in the mortgage than let it sit in cash. It w...
by Dulocracy
Mon Jun 20, 2016 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NYTimes: Money Letter Every Parent Should Write
Replies: 16
Views: 5301

Re: NYTimes: Money Letter Every Parent Should Write

Thanks for sharing. I drafted one of these for my wife after my death. Similarly, I plan on drafting one for my children (child at this point, as we have a 4 month old).
by Dulocracy
Mon Jun 20, 2016 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pfau: Why Bond Funds Don't Belong in Retirement Portfolios
Replies: 138
Views: 17911

Re: Pfau: Why Bond Funds Don't Belong in Retirement Portfolios

The potential bias from research being funded by enterprises with a vested interest in the outcome is if the results are selectively published. Suppose the tests were run on 4 random samples, with 1 sample generating results favorable to the special interest, and 3 samples being unfavorable. If the...
by Dulocracy
Mon Jun 20, 2016 1:28 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Proposed Rule: Names: Avoiding Confusion
Replies: 13
Views: 1322

Re: Proposed Rule: Names: Avoiding Confusion

I can assure you "Bill Bernstein" is William Bernstein . Thanks for the clarification, LadyGeek. I misunderstood. When you said Bill Bernstein is wbern, I thought you were making clear that the Bill Bernstein posting was NOT the same person, and that you were clarifying that it was someon...
by Dulocracy
Mon Jun 20, 2016 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 1740
Views: 388079

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Trading Places was a pure joy. Directed by John Landis. I've admired his work all the way back to Animal House, Blues Brothers and Three Amigos. Since you mentioned a Landis movie I took a look at IMDB to see what else of his I may have missed (turns out there is a "plethora" of great cre...
by Dulocracy
Mon Jun 20, 2016 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 1740
Views: 388079

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Van wrote:Money Monster. Save your money........not very good despite having star power.


Thanks. I was wondering. Now, I will save my money and watch it if it ever comes out on Netflix.
by Dulocracy
Fri Jun 17, 2016 4:22 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Proposed Rule: Names: Avoiding Confusion
Replies: 13
Views: 1322

Re: Proposed Rule: Names: Avoiding Confusion

Now, I am NOT saying that this user has bad intent. I am certain that the user is an intelligent person that is a fan of Dr. Bernstein's who has good information to contribute. The article that I read was good. However, people on this site follow advice and listen to what people say. Some have more...
by Dulocracy
Fri Jun 17, 2016 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pfau: Why Bond Funds Don't Belong in Retirement Portfolios
Replies: 138
Views: 17911

Re: Pfau: Why Bond Funds Don't Belong in Retirement Portfolios

I don't see anything wrong with this, he shows his math and assumptions. If you disagree with his conclusions then point to the specific assumption or formula he uses that you disagree with. The fact that his research may or may not be sponsored by an insurance company with a motive is irrelevant h...

Go to advanced search