Search found 7247 matches

by Doc
Mon Jul 24, 2017 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?
Replies: 42
Views: 2130

Re: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?

@Angst
Never say never. Sith happens.

That said I don't expect that the 30 will go negative. But if I was going to create a 30 year TIPS LMP under current conditions I would use triple rungs of ten's not single rungs of thirty's.
by Doc
Mon Jul 24, 2017 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 131
Views: 12482

Re: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]

. A feature on the new style brokerage account at Vanguard, that was not in the old style brokerage account, was the ability to have Vanguard funds in a Vanguard brokerage account. The new style brokerage account automatically included the Vanguard Federal Money Market fund as the sweep account. Th...
by Doc
Mon Jul 24, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?
Replies: 42
Views: 2130

Re: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?

For me personally, all I want or "expect" in real terms from my growing LMP's 2017 purchase at auction of $X,000 TIPS is its real purchase price equivalent 30 years from now, coupons are secondary. Except at a recent TIPS auction the real yield was negative which means you would not get y...
by Doc
Mon Jul 24, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 131
Views: 12482

Re: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]

Excluding possible exceptions for some types of brokerage account registrations, old style brokerage accounts have been automatically upgraded to new style brokerage accounts. The question I have is "what is a new style brokerage account"? 1) A brokerage account that does not hold any Van...
by Doc
Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS question - ytm for Jan vs. Jul issues
Replies: 8
Views: 466

Re: TIPS question - ytm for Jan vs. Jul issues

Thanks #Cruncher It looks like I was at least batting 200 with my 5 WAGs. :sharebeer Other than the inflation calculation (which #Cruncher explained), which of your other "WAGs" do you think influenced this issue? 3) is there an inflation component difference which makes one more subject ...
by Doc
Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 131
Views: 12482

Re: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]

I have a mutual-funds only account and I see an "upgrade button" for both my taxable mutual funds and Roth IRAs. I also got a reminder email from Vanguard this morning to upgrade to the new brokerage account. Maybe that's the confusion. "... email ... to the new brokerage account&quo...
by Doc
Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 131
Views: 12482

Re: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]

@kevin Let me try to get my head around this. We "upgraded" to the new platform in November 2014. In order to do this all three (his,hers,ours) of our mutual fund accounts had to have an associated brokerage account connected with it. (And all of the accounts had to be done at the same tim...
by Doc
Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VCIT Year to Date growth? Exactly how is it calculated
Replies: 12
Views: 383

Re: VCIT Year to Date growth? Exactly how is it calculated

You shouldn't have started thinking about NAV. Just look at total return. Why would someone want to look at total return when they were not reinvesting dividends and just wanted to compare prices of different bond ETFs? A price vs. NAV comparison also tells me something about the trading characteri...
by Doc
Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS question - ytm for Jan vs. Jul issues
Replies: 8
Views: 466

Re: TIPS question - ytm for Jan vs. Jul issues

Thanks #Cruncher

It looks like I was at least batting 200 with my 5 WAGs. :sharebeer
by Doc
Sun Jul 23, 2017 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS question - ytm for Jan vs. Jul issues
Replies: 8
Views: 466

Re: TIPS question - ytm for Jan vs. Jul issues

Without looking

1) It's Sunday.

2) Is there a coupon difference.

3) is there an inflation component difference which makes one more subject to deflation.

4) Did Fido make a mistake.

5) is July a reopening.
by Doc
Sun Jul 23, 2017 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 131
Views: 12482

Re: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]

I agree with stlutz that they can't upgrade without your permission. <snip> There are plenty of carrots for those who have non-upgraded brokerage accounts (assuming any still remain). I think they have upgraded brokerage accounts without any owner involvement. At first I was thinking, "how wou...
by Doc
Sun Jul 23, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?
Replies: 42
Views: 2130

Re: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?

In the case of deflation, US TIPS are protected in a unique way- -they redeem at 100 (although the coupons are reduced with a fall in the US CPI-U price index) even if the price index is lower than at issue. Given the quote from the NY Fed I referenced above I don't think the coupon can ever be red...
by Doc
Sun Jul 23, 2017 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 131
Views: 12482

Re: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]

I see some advantage to switching, and I'm not opposed to change, but we have a very large number of accounts (more than 20) and cost basis from account to account is quite complex - I don't want to take any chances that something bad happens. We converted some three years ago. As far as "swit...
by Doc
Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?
Replies: 42
Views: 2130

Re: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?

Back to the OP's question. If you purchased your TIPS on the secondary market they would already have some inflation adjustment built into the "par" value. If we had subsequent deflation some of that adjustment would disappear but the adjusted value at maturity would never drop below the o...
by Doc
Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?
Replies: 42
Views: 2130

Re: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?

nisiprius wrote: I don't know if there's a possibility of TIPS being issued with negative real interest rates.

US Treasury wrote:High Yield -0.049%

Auction results for 5-Year TIPS CUSIP Number 912828X39 April 20, 2017
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/a ... 0420_1.pdf
by Doc
Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?
Replies: 42
Views: 2130

Re: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?

The TIPS inflation adjustment lags actual inflation. That is, based on the inflation in January to June they will adjust the rate in July. But during January to June you will have lost money if inflation was more than the rate set in January. In practice this slippage is extraordinarily small and r...
by Doc
Sat Jul 22, 2017 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's with the narrow spread in 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields (~14 bp)?
Replies: 11
Views: 1060

Re: What's with the narrow spread in 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields (~14 bp)?

patrick013 wrote:I was reading at one of the Fed websites ...

That's for the verification. I'm always a little suspect when I'm getting broker information over the phone..
by Doc
Sat Jul 22, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's with the narrow spread in 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields (~14 bp)?
Replies: 11
Views: 1060

Re: What's with the narrow spread in 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields (~14 bp)?

I know this is tangential to the thread, but you can get a 1 year CD for 1.55% right now, which beats the 2 year Treasury easily. The current yield on the two is ~1.25%. I Do not have to pay state tax on the coupon. If the stock market tanks I can sell that T in about 30 seconds at a premium over p...
by Doc
Sat Jul 22, 2017 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's with the narrow spread in 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields (~14 bp)?
Replies: 11
Views: 1060

Re: What's with the narrow spread in 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields (~14 bp)?

On the longer end: The 2-10 spread also has shrunk quite a bit. The 2 has gone up because of Fed action at the low end. Foreign demand. Present and future spreads are expected to be low for one reason. Demand in general has to lessen a bit. I was told a few weeks ago by a Schwab bond expert that the...
by Doc
Sat Jul 22, 2017 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 131
Views: 12482

Re: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]

The change from Prime to Federal as your settlement fund is a result of Federal regulations. It has nothing to do with the upgrade. Can you explain ? Am I correct that my only recourse is to manually move money from Federal to Prime periodically ? Ah well, distributions for the Federal are about 60...
by Doc
Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 131
Views: 12482

Re: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]

So I went ahead an "upgraded" my account (from mutual fund to brokerage) on the understanding that "nothing would change" except I'd have more availability of purchasing ETFs and the like. However, I now see that my "settlement fund" is the Federal Money Market. Former...
by Doc
Thu Jul 20, 2017 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing
Replies: 104
Views: 3385

Re: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing

I nevIer said "always safe." I said that the longer the holding period, the lesser the risk of losing money, which is historically true. That may be technically true because of the effects of compounding over time. But the dispersion of final compounded returns does not decline with time ...
by Doc
Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing
Replies: 104
Views: 3385

Re: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing

CULater wrote:Anyone who suggests that holding stocks long-term is a sure-fire approach to realizing higher returns with less risk is simply nuts, is mathematically illiterate, or is a financial advisor.

:thumbsup
by Doc
Wed Jul 19, 2017 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing
Replies: 104
Views: 3385

Re: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing

Treasuries generally have a high negative correlation to equities in a flight to quality situation like a stock market crash or sometimes even only in a correction. That's not really true. In 2008 the stock market crashed and bonds tanked, for instance. The question was "what bond sector"...
by Doc
Wed Jul 19, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing
Replies: 104
Views: 3385

Re: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing

Doc wrote: "It would not surprise me that if you did a regression on this data for the total time period you would find only a small negative correlation if any at all. But if you look at many of the shorter time periods of the chart you get a different story. Just look at the areas where the ...
by Doc
Wed Jul 19, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing
Replies: 104
Views: 3385

Re: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing

I really would like to know if there is a fixed income asset class which in recent decades has had a highly negative correlation with U.S. equities. Depends on your time frame. Treasuries generally have a high negative correlation to equities in a flight to quality situation like a stock market cra...
by Doc
Wed Jul 19, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing
Replies: 104
Views: 3385

Re: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing

Not sure which correlation you guys are looking at. This is the historical rolling 3-year correlation, which is generally oscillating around a slightly negative value. This correlation question is highly susceptibility to the question being asked. Are we addressing bonds in general or Treasuries in...
by Doc
Wed Jul 19, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: morningstar X-ray international AA could be better
Replies: 1
Views: 223

Re: morningstar X-ray international AA could be better

1) the % international is based on your total portfolio not the % of equities which is a better way to calculate your international AA (US/F+1)^-1 = Fraction foreign eg: (36/13+1)^-1=0.2653 where 36 is US and 13 is Foreign (I can do that in my head, at least in the morning. :happy ) Alternatively t...
by Doc
Wed Jul 19, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing
Replies: 104
Views: 3385

Re: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing

By maintaining a fixed asset mix via rebalancing, one hopes to maintain a relatively constant drawdown or variability of periodic portfolio returns. No. Risk is variability. It means that whatever you are measuring can be more or less than than what you predicted/calculated. When you think of "...
by Doc
Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (SCHZ)
Replies: 31
Views: 5811

Re: New Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (SCHZ)

Schwab gave up on the active TBM fund and replaced it with an index fund just recently. The TBM index ETF was introduced some 6 years ago. I think both have a very slightly lower ER than the Vg competition. I don't use a TBM fund except for a very small amount at Schwab and Fido as a dividend accumu...
by Doc
Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (SCHZ)
Replies: 31
Views: 5811

Re: New Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (SCHZ)

Was useful to run across this, thanks. Have some $$ at Schwab I'm looking to place and SCHZ was on the list to consider. 2008 was a while ago. I agree with in_reality's comments. Nisi's chart is from an active bond fund that is in the process of being liquidated in favor of an index fund. It has no...
by Doc
Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market vs Limit order
Replies: 50
Views: 3188

Re: Market vs Limit order

When selling with a small spread, I place a marketable limit order. For example, if I see 90.40-90.43, I'll just place the order to sell at $90.40 and eat the three cents. Similarly, I would buy at 90.43 I would do something similar except that I might move the sell order down by a penny to try to ...
by Doc
Sat Jul 15, 2017 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole
Replies: 74
Views: 5675

Re: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole

And we are back to my original question: If I sell $100 worth of AAPL and immediately buy $50 worth of AAPL and $50 worth of GOOG, am I triggering the WSR for half of my assets, or are you saying that AAPL+GOOG is not substantially identical to AAPL ? You are triggering a wash sale for 50 shares. T...
by Doc
Fri Jul 14, 2017 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Owning 3 Index funds vs ETFS ?
Replies: 24
Views: 1853

Re: Owning 3 Index funds vs ETFS ?

I just this morning finished the first estimate of how much ROTH conversion I can take this year and remain below the 85% SS taxable bracket. Now THAT, I spend a lot of time thinking about (89% tIRA, 11% Roth). You youngens have a different outlook than us old far foggies. (25% taxable, 25% ROTH, 5...
by Doc
Fri Jul 14, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole
Replies: 74
Views: 5675

Re: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole

Vanguard's ETF are different from all the others, being defined as share class of mutual funds. Similar type comment in SPDR® S&P 500 ETF SPY annual report. Units are issued and redeemed by the Trust only in Creation Unit size aggregations of 50,000 Units. Such transactions are only permitted o...
by Doc
Fri Jul 14, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole
Replies: 74
Views: 5675

Re: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole

Doc wrote: But if I did I would have no concern replacing IVV with VOO. IVV market cap 88 million, VOO 67 million - 24% or 31% different depending on which way one looks. IVV ~500 stocks, VOO ~1000 stocks - 50% or 100% different depending on which way one looks. I think you mean VV (Large Cap) ther...
by Doc
Fri Jul 14, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Owning 3 Index funds vs ETFS ?
Replies: 24
Views: 1853

Re: Owning 3 Index funds vs ETFS ?

^^ I fully admit I'm somewhat of a geek when it comes to this, so don't discount that I am putting in more work to understand the intricacies than someone who feels fine (and is fine!) with a hands-off approach. However, costs matter, and taxes are but one of the costs, so it does add up. By choosi...
by Doc
Fri Jul 14, 2017 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole
Replies: 74
Views: 5675

Re: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole

If you are trying to claim a distinction between a traditional Mutual Fund and an Exchange Traded Fund you are really deep into speculation in my opinion. Then I have to doubt you have an intimate understanding of what an ETF is. The question is whether the IRS treats traditional mutual fund differ...
by Doc
Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole
Replies: 74
Views: 5675

Re: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole

If you are trying to claim a distinction between a traditional Mutual Fund and an Exchange Traded Fund you are really deep into speculation in my opinion. Then I have to doubt you have an intimate understanding of what an ETF is. The question is whether the IRS treats traditional mutual fund differ...
by Doc
Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Owning 3 Index funds vs ETFS ?
Replies: 24
Views: 1853

Re: Owning 3 Index funds vs ETFS ?

I use ETFs to tax gain harvest. That's interesting. Is this because you are young and poor (i.e. low marginal tax rate) and you want to increase your cost basis, taking your cap gains now (at lower marginal rates) to reduce the amount of future capital gains? I am old and collecting SS and I period...
by Doc
Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Owning 3 Index funds vs ETFS ?
Replies: 24
Views: 1853

Re: Owning 3 Index funds vs ETFS ?

I use ETFs to tax gain harvest. Since there is no wash sale to be concerned about there, I sell ETFs intra-day and buy the same shares back seconds later at usually the same price. This is not possible with mutual funds, but I am able to stay invested in the same funds which I find cool. I've used ...
by Doc
Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole
Replies: 74
Views: 5675

Re: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole

Doc wrote: The way things are going I won't be doing any TLH in the foreseeable future. Well, I'm happy to do TLH because I have carryover losses in the five-figure range (thanks to starting my taxable portfolio in 2007). If the IRS called me on a wash sale between two ETFs, it would a) mean nothin...
by Doc
Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole
Replies: 74
Views: 5675

Re: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole

The IRS never specified a quantitative definition of "substantially". Right, but when they do have an example it is generally like selling a stock and buying a call on the exact same stock. There is absolutely no risk. In the IRS descriptions "substantially" refers to the fact t...
by Doc
Thu Jul 13, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole
Replies: 74
Views: 5675

Re: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole

OK you made me find my own source. "Does Tax Loss Harvesting “Almost” Substantially Identical Mutual Funds And ETFs Trigger A Wash Sale Problem?" In former IRS Publication 564, the Service acknowledged that “ ordinarily, shares issued by one mutual fund are not considered to be substantial...
by Doc
Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund Cash Composition
Replies: 4
Views: 284

Re: Mutual Fund Cash Composition

Geologist wrote:Consequently, I would agree with other posters that you should ignore it in your asset allocation.

The problem only becomes significant if the fund is using a very large amount of derivatives like some of the Pimco managed bond funds.
by Doc
Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole
Replies: 74
Views: 5675

Re: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole

The only reason why, up to now, the IRS has not gone after the $100 investor is that it is not worth it. They didn't go after overseas accounts for more than 50 years either What source do you have for "The only reason"? Are they going after a Wealthfront? If they were we would know about...
by Doc
Wed Jul 12, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole
Replies: 74
Views: 5675

Re: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole

In fact, I can bring a certain blend of securities to the ETF issuer, obtain ETF shares in exchange (and vice versa), and the IRS calls this a redemption in kind, which is prima facie evidence that ETF shares and underlying securities are one and the same. Let's try it from that viewpoint. The ETF ...
by Doc
Wed Jul 12, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole
Replies: 74
Views: 5675

Re: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole

I have a lot of doubts about your "no doubts". Creation units involve the purchase or sale of individual securities that make up the fund. That's WAY different than buying and selling the finished product. That's not correct. Creation units involve the exchange of basket of securities for...
by Doc
Wed Jul 12, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar Portfolio Manager
Replies: 5
Views: 410

Re: Morningstar Portfolio Manager

There are sites that test the servers for you like

http://www.isitdownrightnow.com/

but run the test several times since I was getting different results every few minutes Tuesday morning for Morningstar before it finally settled down.
by Doc
Wed Jul 12, 2017 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole
Replies: 74
Views: 5675

Re: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole

S&P 500 and Russell 1000, they certainly have a case if held in ETF form. I assume that by "they" you mean the IRS. Unlike many other types of securities, the IRS has not given clear guidelines about what would be viewed as substantially identical if a mutual fund is sold and another ...

Go to advanced search