Search found 564 matches

by Day9
Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads work BECAUSE its hard
Replies: 22
Views: 2412

Re: Bogleheads work BECAUSE its hard

Indeed the wiki says this: Stay the course: This is perhaps the most challenging part of Boglehead investing, but is essential to its success ... On rebalancing once per year: "making only that one change every year takes discipline, it is also an enormous relief to be able to tune out the endl...
by Day9
Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stock valuations so high because interest rates are so low?
Replies: 28
Views: 2229

Re: Are stock valuations so high because interest rates are so low?

Stocks are fundamentally valuable due to the future dividends they will pay out. The discounted value of future cash flow is affected by current interest rates and expectations of future interest rates. This is one reason why low interest rates would make stocks higher. Another reason is low interes...
by Day9
Tue Jan 31, 2017 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: STAR Fund
Replies: 11
Views: 2051

Re: STAR Fund

I would like to point out it has only a $1,000 minimum investment which is less that most of their other funds.
by Day9
Wed Jan 25, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: part 2 of annual lessons learned series
Replies: 2
Views: 492

Re: part 2 of annual lessons learned series

Thanks for this article. It is a good review of 2016 and a reminder of the Boglehead core philosophy that is usually at the end of the list of Boglehead core philosophies: Stay the course. It's easier to stay the course when we have articles like this that remind us why it is necessary.
by Day9
Mon Jan 23, 2017 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tom Sossnof's derivative trades
Replies: 35
Views: 1980

Re: Tom Sossnof's derivative trades

My understanding is that their strategy is to "sell volatility" and I believe I have read that this is a positive expected return strategy that is not correlated with the market so there might be some justification to do this kind of thing in addition to holding a Boglehead portfolio. I ag...
by Day9
Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spending HSA money versus other
Replies: 21
Views: 2084

Re: Spending HSA money versus other

I don't want to hold onto receipts for 30 years so I paid a few $500 bills out of my HSA now instead of doing this. I should start a post in the personal finance tips forum titled "How to securely hold onto receipts for 30 years" :mrgreen:
by Day9
Tue Jan 17, 2017 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deciding on types of bonds is harder than stocks!
Replies: 20
Views: 2375

Re: Deciding on types of bonds is harder than stocks!

Add CDs to the list as well. They have significantly higher yield than equal duration treasuries but are still FDIC insured up to $250k per institution which makes them good for the little guy. If going all-in Total Bond Market for your fixed income allocation is a crime, it's a misdemeanor not a fe...
by Day9
Tue Jan 17, 2017 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"
Replies: 173
Views: 16823

Re: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"

Rodc wrote:...
But even that hides a lot. More scary are the numbers by education and race.


Especially net worth by demographic. The differences are much more pronounced than income.
by Day9
Tue Dec 20, 2016 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is VBR a no-brainer over IJS?
Replies: 41
Views: 6415

Re: Is VBR a no-brainer over IJS?

May I throw another one into the mix: RZV, Guggenheim S&P Smallcap 600 Pure Value ETF According to the factor loadings from portfoliovisualizer.com, this one seems to be very small (1.204) and value-y (0.746), ER 0.35%. Any opinions on this one? RZV has significantly lower average volume and AU...
by Day9
Tue Dec 20, 2016 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4161

Re: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio

Sometimes a Stable Value fund is the only good fixed income option in a 401k or similar plan. The other options might just be high expense ratio actively managed funds. The ones I've come across are not transparent so I could not analyze credit, duration, and other kinds of risks. Even if they were ...
by Day9
Wed Dec 14, 2016 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: "OK to sin...but sin only a little"
Replies: 51
Views: 6613

Re: Swedroe: "OK to sin...but sin only a little"

Saved the quote but not the post. Larry said here a month or two ago: So with global market cap at 50% international (1/4 of that being EM) might go to say 60% and 1/3 of that EM. But be sure you can live with that TE. The context was the max possible international and emerging markets allocations. ...
by Day9
Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I thought Swedroe was a fan of REITs?
Replies: 127
Views: 9780

Re: I thought Swedroe was a fan of REITs?

The "4% rule" comes from purely historical backtesting during times where stock valuations were lower and bond yields were higher so the rule is not safe or conservative for someone retiring today. This is incorrect. 4% worked during the worst times when stock valuations were high, and bo...
by Day9
Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I thought Swedroe was a fan of REITs?
Replies: 127
Views: 9780

Re: I thought Swedroe was a fan of REITs?

nedsaid, agree completely. When you get major changes in valuations one should review their assumptions And here is simple example of the foolishness of the age in bonds rule, which while a reasonable starting point when considering ABILITY to take risk, makes no sense as the only rule. Say you are...
by Day9
Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!
Replies: 155
Views: 17033

Re: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!

It was a good touch to make the first chapter about Market Beta. I'd expect the reader to already accept and be familiar with at least the general idea of the ERP so leading off with this and framing it as just one of the factors to be discussed makes the book more persuasive. Of course the book is ...
by Day9
Mon Dec 12, 2016 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I thought Swedroe was a fan of REITs?
Replies: 127
Views: 9780

Re: I thought Swedroe was a fan of REITs?

Of course we Bogleheads know that past performance alone does not imply future performance and we must have other stories for why stocks are expected to have positive real expected returns going forward. And Larry is correct that a humble estimate of an average return knowing that there is a wide di...
by Day9
Mon Dec 12, 2016 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I thought Swedroe was a fan of REITs?
Replies: 127
Views: 9780

Re: I thought Swedroe was a fan of REITs?

"the more recent research shows that REITS aren't all that unique as an asset class" I have 10% of my portfolio in REITs (half US and half international, all in tax-advantaged locations) and will stay the course, but am interested in this comment from Larry. My allocation is based partly ...
by Day9
Fri Dec 02, 2016 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of international do you hold?
Replies: 127
Views: 6418

Re: What percentage of international do you hold?

One well-respected poster on this forum (whose name you may be able to deduce) recently said: So with global market cap at 50% international (1/4 of that being EM) might go to say 60% and 1/3 of that EM. But be sure you can live with that TE [Tracking Error]. Based on current valuations, internation...
by Day9
Fri Dec 02, 2016 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an interesting new paper on labor capital and correlation with equities
Replies: 5
Views: 456

Re: an interesting new paper on labor capital and correlation with equities

That's an interesting point that the Equity Risk Premium may be affected by the fact that high net worth households hold so much of the risky assets out there, and the marginal utility of wealth changes as you accumulate. It's nicer to receive your first million than it is to receive your second. It...
by Day9
Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities for the Long Run
Replies: 17
Views: 1368

Re: Commodities for the Long Run

Adding a splash of commodity futures (say 5%-10% of equity allocation) while simultaenously increasing the duration of your bond portfolio can increase expected return while lowering risk.
by Day9
Sat Nov 26, 2016 1:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLT and individual treasury bond TLH pair or wash sale?
Replies: 6
Views: 405

Re: TLT and individual treasury bond TLH pair or wash sale?

You can probably sell TLT for a loss and buy Vanguard Long Term Treasury Admiral VUSUX er=0.10% as a replacement holding. You don't have to realize any capital gains. If there are no gains to offset, up to 3K of the loss to reduce ordinary income. Then the remaining losses carry forward to next tax...
by Day9
Sat Nov 26, 2016 12:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLT and individual treasury bond TLH pair or wash sale?
Replies: 6
Views: 405

Re: TLT and individual treasury bond TLH pair or wash sale?

Thank you PJW for your correction and your response.
by Day9
Sat Nov 26, 2016 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLT and individual treasury bond TLH pair or wash sale?
Replies: 6
Views: 405

TLT and individual treasury bond TLH pair or wash sale?

Hi Bogleheads, If I sell depreciated shares in iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and buy individual long term individual treasury bonds from Vanguard's bond desk in my taxable account, will this count as a wash sale? Are they "significantly different"? I would buy bonds with 20-30 y...
by Day9
Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Four-Fund Portfolio?
Replies: 23
Views: 3419

Re: Four-Fund Portfolio?

Check out this allocation recommendation tool from Vanguard. Answer as honestly as possible and even take the test a few times which different answers that might reflect your situation and see how the results change. It should recommend you a 4-fund portfolio using the funds you list with allocation...
by Day9
Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 34
Views: 8557

Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Today is a great reminder to diversify globally and across asset classes, and to stay the course. Two very important Boglehead core principles.
by Day9
Tue Nov 01, 2016 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paid off home. View as bond or cash in AA if you plan to sell in retirement?
Replies: 32
Views: 2703

Re: Paid off home. View as bond or cash in AA if you plan to sell in retirement?

In the 2008 financial crises homes suffered a large drop in value whereas high credit quality bonds did fine or even went up a bit. Long term treasuries went up significantly. If you had treated your home equity as your entire bond allocation and your other investments were just stock, you would be ...
by Day9
Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone own real estate in their IRA?
Replies: 10
Views: 1288

Re: Anyone own real estate in their IRA?

How do you take RMDs from a real estate property?
by Day9
Mon Sep 26, 2016 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market vs. 2% CD
Replies: 44
Views: 10645

Re: Total Bond Market vs. 2% CD

"If holding Total Bond Market is a crime, it is a misdemeanor not a felony" I believe in an FDIC insured CD only the principal is backed by the full faith and credit, while with Treasuries the interest payments are backed as well. But that's such an insignificant difference. FDIC insured C...
by Day9
Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "In Defense of Bonds"
Replies: 35
Views: 5504

Re: "In Defense of Bonds"

It seems like time and time again, the older people with larger portfolios insist on bonds, and the younger people with 10-20k in their 401ks simply shrug and say. I don't really care if I lose 30-35% of a portfolio I can't touch for another 40 years. And then there's a counter argument saying, wel...
by Day9
Mon Aug 22, 2016 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Diversification - bottom line, what do you do?
Replies: 41
Views: 4085

Re: Time Diversification - bottom line, what do you do?

... In order to have a productive conversation around leverage, we really need to get back to basics and look at tilting from a different perspective. In most of the traditional tilts, people are trying to increase returns by adding a volatile and risky asset to the portfolio -- like REITs or SCV. ...
by Day9
Mon Aug 22, 2016 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Diversification - bottom line, what do you do?
Replies: 41
Views: 4085

Re: Time Diversification - bottom line, what do you do?

Theoretically choosing between leveraging a balanced portfolio and using factor tilting is not an either/or decision. But practically it may be more of an either/or decision than it is in theory because perhaps the best way to implement the leveraged strategy would be with S&P 500 futures as the...
by Day9
Fri Aug 19, 2016 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 8449

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

"Why not 100% stock?" posts are very common on this board when the market is at all time highs.
by Day9
Tue Aug 16, 2016 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed income strategy
Replies: 17
Views: 1937

Re: Fixed income strategy

If investing solely in TBM in your bond allocation is a crime, it is a misdemeanor not a felony.
by Day9
Wed Aug 10, 2016 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are mutual fund investors smart money?
Replies: 8
Views: 1170

Re: Are mutual fund investors smart money?

First I was amazed to read about this study of a "smart money" effect that looks at fund inflows and persists even after controlling for performance chasing. Then I was amazed that the effect is not that great, especially for taxable investors, and that it does not persist after only 1 mon...
by Day9
Thu Aug 04, 2016 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Investment Grade Bonds a Bad Investment?
Replies: 4
Views: 670

Re: Long Term Investment Grade Bonds a Bad Investment?

In portfolios with very high stock allocations and very low bond allocations, like 90/10, long term treasuries are a fine choice since the volatility and risk of the stock side dominates. If you have long term nominal liabilities then long term investment grade bonds are good for you. Individual inv...
by Day9
Thu Aug 04, 2016 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid International?
Replies: 103
Views: 10288

Re: Avoid International?

I keep the market-weighted amount of international. I just look at vanguard total world stock index and use the US allocation vs all others to get a reasonable percentage. Right now its about 54.5% US to 45.5% Intl. ... Could you please show me where you can see this? I'm looking at the Vanguard pa...
by Day9
Thu Aug 04, 2016 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid International?
Replies: 103
Views: 10288

Re: Avoid International?

I keep the market-weighted amount of international. I just look at vanguard total world stock index and use the US allocation vs all others to get a reasonable percentage. Right now its about 54.5% US to 45.5% Intl. ... Could you please show me where you can see this? I'm looking at the Vanguard pa...
by Day9
Thu Aug 04, 2016 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 10048

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

The 4% rule worked in 95% of historical scenarios but...

Larry Swedroe mentions in this recent post about the mistake of solely looking at historical returns to estimate future returns a far lower chance of success than 95%.
by Day9
Thu Aug 04, 2016 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Small Cap Value Mutual Fund conundrum
Replies: 14
Views: 1620

Re: My Small Cap Value Mutual Fund conundrum

Livesoft has referenced this site before. They list their preference for funds from various asset classes. Some of their top small value choices are ETFs. http://www.altruistfa.com/USsmallcapvaluefunds.htm This page lists RZV as the #1 choice but I would like to caution that it has a negative load ...
by Day9
Thu Aug 04, 2016 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 19070

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

The example about current yields being a better indicator of expected bond returns than historical returns is the most easily graspable, common sense example of this point. If yields fall then historical bond returns go up but it is easy to see that expected returns going forward must be lower. So i...
by Day9
Wed Aug 03, 2016 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors love "lottery tickets" new paper supporting that theory
Replies: 33
Views: 3913

Re: Investors love "lottery tickets" new paper supporting that theory

Would it be too much to consider selling deep-out-of-the-money options, especially calls, as part of a long term diversified portfolio?
by Day9
Wed Aug 03, 2016 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Margin investing - how risky is it really?
Replies: 33
Views: 2650

Re: Margin investing - how risky is it really?

If you have the need, willingness, and ability to take risk beyond a very high stock allocation it is better to tilt more strongly to other risk factors like small and value, and increase allocation to international and emerging markets which have lower valuations and higher expected returns. But ev...
by Day9
Wed Aug 03, 2016 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid International?
Replies: 103
Views: 10288

Re: Avoid International?

There is good analysis on the Boglehead wiki page for Domestic/International. Give it a read if you haven't already. At least look at the pretty pictures.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Domestic/International
by Day9
Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long to turn 1 million to 2 millions for you?
Replies: 44
Views: 8652

Re: How long to turn 1 million to 2 millions for you?

Starting with $1 million, adding $36,000 per year ($3k/month), growing at 7% would become $2 million in about 7.5 years.

With 5% growth it would take 9.5 years.

So the fact that you say you can save at least $3,000 per month for the next 10 years makes me believe you will reach your goal.
by Day9
Fri Jul 29, 2016 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?
Replies: 222
Views: 15670

Re: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?

Thanks for the great post and discussion. I see Larry's common sense point about valuations being high and yields being low (and negative in real terms) so it is easy to see why the old 4% SWR is not conservative and why he sees his peers suggest 3% rather than 4%. The original Trinity study shows 4...
by Day9
Sat Jul 23, 2016 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY / TLT Portfolio [SPDR S&P 500 / iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond]
Replies: 19
Views: 1491

Re: SPY / TLT Portfolio

Yes the long term correlation is close to zero, not negative. The correlation during financial crises, perhaps when it matters most, has been negative. And the correlation lately has been negative. Long Term Treasuries are a fine choice for someone with an extremely high stock allocation (like 90% s...
by Day9
Sat Jul 23, 2016 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years
Replies: 32
Views: 2435

Re: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years

It seems almost contradictory to me to look for Value stocks that are also the highest market cap.
by Day9
Sat Jul 16, 2016 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to be an enterprising investor?
Replies: 11
Views: 1408

Re: How to be an enterprising investor?

Have a professional and social circle of elite pro investors and business leaders.
by Day9
Fri Jul 15, 2016 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid mid and small caps?
Replies: 19
Views: 2880

Re: Avoid mid and small caps?

Is his portfolio 100% S&P 500, no bonds?

You could probably increase expected return and lower risk with a more diversified portfolio.
by Day9
Thu Jul 14, 2016 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm a 25 year old irish/uk (duel nationality) student about to finish my degree. I want to start investing. Need help.
Replies: 18
Views: 927

Re: I'm a 25 year old irish/uk (duel nationality) student about to finish my degree. I want to start investing. Need hel

Small cap US stocks have historically had 12.5% returns Source But most people think returns will be lower going forward, and there are good reasons to believe this. Nowadays to get a diversified portfolio with 12% expected returns even a high stock allocation of small and value and emerging market ...

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