Search found 4222 matches

by David Jay
Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wellington or Target Retirement 2025
Replies: 9
Views: 631

Re: Wellington or Target Retirement 2025

To quote "neurosphere" (a regular poster here on BH): "If you wonder if a TargetDate fund is right for you, it is"
by David Jay
Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Analyze Sweet Spot on Insurance Deductibles - Challenging my Preconceived Notions
Replies: 12
Views: 679

Re: How to Analyze Sweet Spot on Insurance Deductibles - Challenging my Preconceived Notions

On average, insurance companies are profitable. You are the amateur competing with professional actuaries.

I am heavily biased towards towards self-insure. I carry homeowners and I go to PLPD on vehicles when value drops below about $5000.
by David Jay
Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A question that keeps coming to my head
Replies: 13
Views: 1006

Re: A question that keeps coming to my head

#1 Clearly outperforms over the very long term (30+ years). Because stock outperforms bonds and bonds outperform non-returning assets. Portfolio #2 has 24% bonds and 11% non-returning assets. I am agnostic on whether real estate will under-perform stocks over the long term, but bonds and commodities...
by David Jay
Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are we in an Index fund bubble? Are we irrationally overlooking individual stock analysis?
Replies: 18
Views: 2536

Re: Are we in an Index fund bubble? Are we irrationally overlooking individual stock analysis?

Your scenario will never happen. The reason has to do with just one word: GREED! Greed will ensure that someone or perhaps a bunch of someones continue to actively trade the market in hopes of a better or bigger score. We can point the finger at a whole host of players --> endowments, pensions, hed...
by David Jay
Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question for Retired BH, over 59.5 with Roth Acct
Replies: 10
Views: 729

Re: Question for Retired BH, over 59.5 with Roth Acct

So far, it’s been watching Roth grow. We hope to leave it to our kids intact (D), but could tap it if needed. +1 Same here. We don't need any Roth money while 2 spouses are alive, the surviving spouse may need to dip into the Roth if there is extreme longevity (95+). Otherwise it all goes to the ki...
by David Jay
Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long time investing with a Dalio type of long term strategy
Replies: 1
Views: 243

Re: Long time investing with a Dalio type of long term strategy

Welcome to the forum! It looks like you want a Dalio portfolio without the key features of the Dalio portfolio. I think what you want is closer to a Lazy portfolio than to a Dalio. I recommend you go through the Wiki review of Lazy Portfolios here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_portfolios On ...
by David Jay
Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: retirement scenario [safety of IRA funds]
Replies: 17
Views: 1384

Re: retirement scenario [safety of IRA funds]

as far as inflation goes I was looking at vanguards life strategy conservative as was recommended to me. i actually like it. i will still have money in the stock market with my Roth IRA, Ameritrade and company 401k. when i decide to leave my job i will then roll the 401k into a roth-rollover ira Gr...
by David Jay
Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: retirement scenario [safety of IRA funds]
Replies: 17
Views: 1384

Re: retirement scenario [safety of IRA funds]

total net worth as of today is $733k $248K is cash and $484k is investments (TSP, 401k roth ira, rollover ira, Ameritrade) of the 484k i want to move 380k of it to a safe place more for a guarantee for when i am 60. i plan on retiring at 53, i do not own a home. i will be moving over to Thailand at...
by David Jay
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: retirement scenario [safety of IRA funds]
Replies: 17
Views: 1384

Re: retirement scenario [safety of IRA funds]

Jim: The LifeStrategy funds include a family of different asset allocations. Because this is an IRA, you can move between funds without any tax issues. If the 80/20 (stocks/bonds) of LS Growth is worrying to you, you can move to LS Moderate (60/40) or LS Conservative (40/60). You get lower long-term...
by David Jay
Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's trivial to outperform Vanguard Total Bond Index for 2018 with same risk!
Replies: 27
Views: 5281

Re: It's trivial to outperform Vanguard Total Bond Index for 2018 with same risk!

And in a parallel thread:

Vanguard only provides YTD increase on the website, not YTD percentage: viewtopic.php?p=3717792#p3717792 (with some gnashing of teeth by posters)
by David Jay
Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco laminate flooring
Replies: 7
Views: 1258

Re: Costco laminate flooring

Vinyl plank has come a long way in recent years, I would strongly recommend vinyl plank over traditional laminate (and I have personally installed traditional laminate in 5 rooms of 2 different houses over the last 15-20 years).
by David Jay
Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trustee vs POA
Replies: 27
Views: 1414

Re: Executor vs POA

Executor and POA are mutually exclusive. You can only have POA for someone who is living and you can only be executor for someone who is dead.
by David Jay
Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's trivial to outperform Vanguard Total Bond Index for 2018 with same risk!
Replies: 27
Views: 5281

Re: It's trivial to outperform Vanguard Total Bond Index for 2018 with same risk!

YTD is a stupid way to measure performance. It starts out really stupid, then by the end of the year it's almost not stupid any more, and then it resets to being really stupid again. cute... And yet this thread has over 1700 posts: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=145610 And most of...
by David Jay
Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Getting out of Whole Life Insurance
Replies: 15
Views: 1000

Re: Getting out of Whole Life Insurance

Take the cash out.

DO NOT convert one form of expensive life insurance to another form of expensive life insurance. Get out. Replace with low cost level term policies.
by David Jay
Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Capital Preservation after an 8 year bull market
Replies: 17
Views: 1920

Re: Capital Preservation after an 8 year bull market

obafgkm wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:51 pm
David Jay wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:37 am
Step 1 - put your $200,000 in short term bonds MONDAY.
Do it on Tuesday. Monday's a holiday - Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.
Duh - I share MLK's birthday...
by David Jay
Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's trivial to outperform Vanguard Total Bond Index for 2018 with same risk!
Replies: 27
Views: 5281

Re: It's trivial to outperform Vanguard Total Bond Index for 2018 with same risk!

I'm really still not getting the point here even after reading this. Is this specific to bonds? How/why does YTD go down, then up again in a year? YTD on January 2 is a measure of the performance of the market on ONE day - January 2nd. So if the market is down 10%, YTD is -10%. How useful is this a...
by David Jay
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the long term average nominal yield of the total bond market index fund ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1211

Re: What is the long term average nominal yield of the total bond market index fund ?

David Jay wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:32 pm
Did you get the point that "dbr" made?

"Yield" is the interest that a bond fund pays.
"NAV" is the value of the bonds in the fund
"Return" = yield + (NAV increase)
So a drop in NAV reduces the total return to something less than interest paid.
by David Jay
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the long term average nominal yield of the total bond market index fund ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1211

Re: What is the long term average nominal yield of the total bond market index fund ?

Did you get the point that "dbr" made?

"Yield" is the interest that a bond fund pays.
"NAV" is the value of the bonds in the fund
"Return" = yield + (NAV increase)
by David Jay
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the long term average nominal yield of the total bond market index fund ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1211

Re: What is the long term average nominal yield of the total bond market index fund ?

1012: Let me introduce you to a great tool: Morningstar.com 1. Go to Morningstar.com 2. Type VBTLX in the search box 3. On the left side of the page is a chart that shows the gain of a 10,000 investment over time. Click on "5yr" at the top of the chart. 4. Total gain over 5 years is 10.2% (10,000 b...
by David Jay
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: AICPA GVUL possibly better than Term Life
Replies: 3
Views: 287

Re: AICPA GVUL possibly better than Term Life

You won't need a 25 year term policy if you put some of that money into a reasonable portfolio. And carrying the payout risk for a 65 year old is the reason for the high cost of the term. I dropped my last term policy in my mid-50s because my wife was fully taken care of from our retirement assets....
by David Jay
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Capital Preservation after an 8 year bull market
Replies: 17
Views: 1920

Re: Capital Preservation after an 8 year bull market

BTW - did you note that I said nothing about market timing due to an 8 year bull market? 1. Money you need in the next 2 years doesn't belong in equities. 2. Always invest according to your (written!) asset allocation plan. At the end of a bull market: re-read your written asset allocation plan. Aft...
by David Jay
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Capital Preservation after an 8 year bull market
Replies: 17
Views: 1920

Re: Capital Preservation after an 8 year bull market

Welcome to the Forum! Step 1 - put your $200,000 in short term bonds MONDAY. Step 2 - read up on asset allocation. I like the classic "Need, Ability and Willingness" formulation. You may need to move to something less than 100% stocks, even for long term investments. Don't overlook the BH Wiki - goo...
by David Jay
Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Company 401K Fund Change
Replies: 9
Views: 523

Re: Company 401K Fund Change

You have so many great choices, I would "philosophically" refuse to use any fund with an ER over .5 when you have so many other great, low cost choices. So I would not hold either Fidelity Low Price or Transamerica Mid Cap Value from your first post. The 4 funds that "dunkmachine" mentioned above ar...
by David Jay
Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's trivial to outperform Vanguard Total Bond Index for 2018 with same risk!
Replies: 27
Views: 5281

Re: It's trivial to outperform Vanguard Total Bond Index for 2018 with same risk!

telemark wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:07 am
YTD is a stupid way to measure performance. It starts out really stupid, then by the end of the year it's almost not stupid any more, and then it resets to being really stupid again.
cute...

And yet this thread has over 1700 posts: viewtopic.php?t=145610
by David Jay
Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the long term average nominal yield of the total bond market index fund ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1211

Re: What is the long term average nominal yield of the total bond market index fund ?

1012: Let me introduce you to a great tool: Morningstar.com 1. Go to Morningstar.com 2. Type VBTLX in the search box 3. On the left side of the page is a chart that shows the gain of a 10,000 investment over time. Click on "5yr" at the top of the chart. 4. Total gain over 5 years is 10.2% (10,000 be...
by David Jay
Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab help - mutual fund vs ETF vs ThomasPartners Balanced Income - overwhelmed!
Replies: 18
Views: 844

Re: Schwab help - mutual fund vs ETF vs ThomasPartners Balanced Income - overwhelmed!

A regular here ("Nisiprius") says of mutual funds versus ETFs: "It's the same beer. Mutual funds are beer in bottles, ETFs are beer in cans."
by David Jay
Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: retirement scenario [safety of IRA funds]
Replies: 17
Views: 1384

Re: retirement scenario [safety of IRA funds]

Welcome to the Forum! A few thoughts: 1. Bond funds with durations less than your investment timeframe are reasonably safe. How about a short term, investment grade corporate bond fund. 2. You can purchase brokered CDs inside a Rollover IRA. 3. Even though you talk about "dumping stocks", the stock ...
by David Jay
Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Company 401K Fund Change
Replies: 9
Views: 523

Re: Company 401K Fund Change

While you are collecting the 401K information, here are the kind of portfolios that we recommend at BH: Simple portfolios using broad-based index funds (from the BH Wiki): https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_portfolios
by David Jay
Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Company 401K Fund Change
Replies: 9
Views: 523

Re: Company 401K Fund Change

Welcome to the forum!

It would help if you could list the funds available in your 401k and the expense ratio of each fund. Then we can look at your available choices and make recommendations.
by David Jay
Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse
Replies: 34
Views: 5247

Re: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse

facepalm wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:18 pm
lately, I have been asking my shoeshine boy for stock tips. He suggests Bitcoin.
I'm down with that. At least Bitcoin isn't "Wildly Overpriced"...
by David Jay
Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: AICPA GVUL possibly better than Term Life
Replies: 3
Views: 287

Re: AICPA GVUL possibly better than Term Life

You won't need a 25 year term policy if you put some of that money into a reasonable portfolio. And carrying the payout risk for a 65 year old is the reason for the high cost of the term. I dropped my last term policy in my mid-50s because my wife was fully taken care of from our retirement assets.
by David Jay
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 99
Views: 7255

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

My end-of-the-year Net Worth accounting shows that we joined the two comma club for the first time. That is total net worth, our retirement accounts are about $750,000, remainder is home equity. Age 61, never had a year with family income above 5 digits, so you can be financially independent on a mo...
by David Jay
Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity - decision process & why ?
Replies: 3
Views: 341

Re: Annuity - decision process & why ?

I like Jane Bryant Quinn's perspective: "Quinn's First Law of Investing is never to buy anything whose price you can't follow in the newspapers. Even when the price is in the newspapers, you shouldn't buy anything too complex to explain to the average 12-year old ." I looked at a number of annuities...
by David Jay
Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Mistake?
Replies: 2
Views: 334

Re: Investment Mistake?

You have two type of funds in the account: Funds with a stock component and funds without a stock component. If you are under 2 years to withdrawal, I would not have any money in an fund with a stock component. I would use Short Term bond funds and CDs for money I didn't need to access immediately. ...
by David Jay
Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k Choices
Replies: 4
Views: 433

Re: 401k Choices

Welcome to the forum!

You seem to have a pretty good selection of funds. A couple of comments:
1. I would be extremely surprised if a 401K did not do automatic reinvestment of dividends.
2. It is unusual for there to be a fund exchange fee within a 401K, check with HR before getting too worried.
by David Jay
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Yet another Retiree Emergency Fund Question - Income floor vs EF?
Replies: 13
Views: 760

Re: Yet another Retiree Emergency Fund Question - Income floor vs EF?

I'm in the "Zero" column. No need for an emergency fund after 59.5 Okay. You've bend my brain. Why 59.5 ????? j :D Maybe because he has penalty free access to his retirement accounts? Correct. Penalty free for my Roth, plus my employer allowed an in-service withdrawal so I rolled my 401k into a tIR...
by David Jay
Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Funds' Annualized Returns
Replies: 4
Views: 364

Re: Hedge Funds' Annualized Returns

I know that they are worse than the SP500:

viewtopic.php?t=236312
by David Jay
Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help Me [Recover] My Bitcoin!
Replies: 93
Views: 12051

Re: Help Me Cash Out My Bitcoin!

nisiprius wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:51 pm
Those bitcoins James Howells lost are now worth more than a hundred million dollars."
Head for the landfill...
by David Jay
Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 290
Views: 25801

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Dang, VBR (SCV ETF) is up 1.53% @ 3:15 today. More tiredness...
by David Jay
Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Yet another Retiree Emergency Fund Question - Income floor vs EF?
Replies: 13
Views: 760

Re: Yet another Retiree Emergency Fund Question - Income floor vs EF?

I'm in the "Zero" column. No need for an emergency fund after 59.5
by David Jay
Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How often should my AA adjust?
Replies: 17
Views: 963

Re: How often should my AA adjust?

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:24 pm
Why not do a static AA and leave it forever? I would suggest 33/33/34 AA and do an annual rebalance.
That's fine if your need, ability and willingness to take risk never changes...
by David Jay
Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How many years of fixed income for Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 26
Views: 1934

Re: How many years of fixed income for Sequence of Return Risk

As others have said, 10 years is a good starting point. If you actually spend down some of that fixed income, you will automatically bring up the relative equity percentage. I am self-funding my retirement from age 62 to age 68 (at which time SS will cover all of our recurring expenses). I have ramp...
by David Jay
Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Elderly" New Investor Requests Portfolio Critique
Replies: 11
Views: 910

Re: "Elderly" New Investor Requests Portfolio Critique

I agree with Tyler.

I would not be in Long Term bonds in the current low-interest-rate environment and at your stage of life. It could take 15+ years for long term bonds to "catch up" if interest rates rise significantly. Move Long Term to Intermediate Term, I hold VCIT myself.
by David Jay
Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Accelerated Bookbuild - who's informed and when? And what are the consequences?
Replies: 21
Views: 1063

Re: Accelerated Bookbuild - who's informed and when? And what are the consequences?

Did it show up in their 10K? If you are investing in individual small-cap stocks you probably should be reading the 10Ks and quarterly reports. yes of course I read their reports but this didn't show up - if people had known, the price would not have fallen 10% this morning. I am a little bit surpr...
by David Jay
Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Accelerated Bookbuild - who's informed and when? And what are the consequences?
Replies: 21
Views: 1063

Re: Accelerated Bookbuild - who's informed and when? And what are the consequences?

Did it show up in their 10K?

If you are investing in individual small-cap stocks you probably should be reading the 10Ks and quarterly reports.
by David Jay
Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two Years to Retirement – Please review and comment [1 year update]
Replies: 62
Views: 8871

Re: Two Years to Retirement – Please review and comment [1 year update]

aristotelian wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:41 am
By increasing your charity to reduce taxes, you are robbing Peter to pay Paul.
You seem to take a pretty low view of our motivations.
by David Jay
Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two Years to Retirement – Please review and comment [1 year update]
Replies: 62
Views: 8871

Re: Two Years to Retirement – Please review and comment [1 year update]

OP, fyi you can download your Social Security data and copy it directly into the tool here to see your benefit. This is the best calculator that I know of, even better than the ones on the government website. https://socialsecurity.tools/app.html No offense, but I don't think you have enough wiggle...
by David Jay
Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it a bad idea to have TIPs in Roth IRA?
Replies: 12
Views: 979

Re: Is it a bad idea to have TIPs in Roth IRA?

The rule of thumb, for what it's worth, is to hold your investments with the most growth potential in your Roth because that growth will never be taxed. For that reason, I only hold stock funds in my Roth and would only hold bonds there if there were no acceptable bond funds in my employer-sponsore...