Search found 5009 matches

by Dandy
Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg article on lump sum vs dollar cost averaging
Replies: 26
Views: 2182

Re: Bloomberg article on lump sum vs dollar cost averaging

Here he is talking not about market timing, which is trying to predict the market, but about the need for "nervous" investors to stay within their risk tolerance levels by reducing equities. I'm ok with nervous investors dialing back their equities to stay within their risk tolerance -- that is als...
by Dandy
Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg article on lump sum vs dollar cost averaging
Replies: 26
Views: 2182

Re: Bloomberg article on lump sum vs dollar cost averaging

Also known as market timing. Market timing is a term that is thrown around on so many things that it can lose its real value. Some have applied it to rebalancing. I have dealt with the most abusive market timers who had list of clients and they would call in often several times a week just before t...
by Dandy
Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg article on lump sum vs dollar cost averaging
Replies: 26
Views: 2182

Re: Bloomberg article on lump sum vs dollar cost averaging

I understand that in general lump sum outperforms DCA perhaps 2/3'rds of the time. I do think there might be a reduction in that advantage for those start their DCA when the market is near or at it's all time high, or some other objective measure of high valuation. I usually do and advise a combinat...
by Dandy
Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lack of FDIC Insurance a big deal?
Replies: 38
Views: 2536

Re: Lack of FDIC Insurance a big deal?

Loss of FDIC insurance isn't the only difference. My understanding is that Prime and other institutional type money markets have options to charge fees, or restrict withdrawals in certain situations related to economic hardships that may cause a run on the fund for example. That isn't the case with ...
by Dandy
Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds vs. Fixed/Guaranteed Income
Replies: 16
Views: 1410

Re: Bonds vs. Fixed/Guaranteed Income

a lot depends on your age and purpose of your fixed income and what percent overall are you allocating to fixed income. Usually, the bond choices in employer sponsored plans are terrible either poor performance or high fees or likely both. I like the guaranteed income especially if the purpose is fo...
by Dandy
Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are you keeping more in cash?
Replies: 27
Views: 3226

Re: Are you keeping more in cash?

I don't worry too much about the market timing label -- many times it is abused. When there are significant changes it is wise to consider responding to them. When money markets were paying almost nothing it was a reasonable response to move assets to something that had a bit more risk and a bit mor...
by Dandy
Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we save for our son's college?
Replies: 96
Views: 7688

Re: Should we save for our son's college?

College expenses used to be reasonable at least for state schools. I used to work the summers and could at least pay for the tuition. My parents picked up the books etc. and provided a small weekly allowance to cover gas/lunch - I commuted (but bought a 6 year old used car.) Those days are long gone...
by Dandy
Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help me with arguments for/against actively managed...
Replies: 34
Views: 1478

Re: Please help me with arguments for/against actively managed...

Here is how I look at it: 1. A broad based passive/index fund with low ER e.g. Vanguard's Total Stock Market (US) at 4 bps is a pretty good measure of the US market. 2. Most, but not all, data on individual stocks is known pretty quickly to the market so the market is generally up to date. 3. An Act...
by Dandy
Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2.5% Withdrawal for 50 Years With 50/50 Portfolio?
Replies: 116
Views: 7301

Re: 2.5% Withdrawal for 50 Years With 50/50 Portfolio?

The basic math works assuming reasonable assumptions. The longer the time period the greater the risk that reasonable assumptions may not be so reasonable. e.g. war, tax changes, inflation, negative interest rates, flu pandemic, climate change, ??, etc. Also, personal issues related to your own heal...
by Dandy
Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds - Am I missing something
Replies: 89
Views: 6776

Re: Bonds - Am I missing something

Equities outperform fixed income over time -- by a lot. They are also subject to rather sudden and sometimes scary declines of 50% or more. You will probably experience one of those scary events once every 15 or 20 years (guess work not researched). So, younger accumulators who are not very risk ave...
by Dandy
Sat Apr 14, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What advantages do a personalized portfolio have over a target date fund, in your opinion?
Replies: 49
Views: 2720

Re: What advantages do a personalized portfolio have over a target date fund, in your opinion?

Every all in one or balanced fund usually requires some compromise in your ideal allocation. Maybe it is too aggressive, or has too little international equities, etc. TD funds from vanguard have made some significant changes in overall allocations to equities and what investments the funds contain....
by Dandy
Sat Apr 14, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why traditional IRA better than Roth IRA
Replies: 87
Views: 6656

Re: Why traditional IRA better than Roth IRA

Then when you reach 59 1/2 years old you make sure your withdrawals are at or less than $72K/year You can determine the amount to withdraw up until the year you reach 701/2 then the minimum is determined by Uncle Sam. If you save in a TIRA or 401k aggressively and have at least a moderately aggress...
by Dandy
Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When/how did you start teaching your child about personal finance?
Replies: 15
Views: 1085

Re: When/how did you start teaching your child about personal finance?

1. start with a small allowance - I think I got 25 cents a week (I'm 70). You could tie it to a simple chore depending on age but the idea is his/her understanding of income/earnings. That helps them understand parents have income (so they don't have unlimited money). 2. Have them use a piggy bank o...
by Dandy
Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me decide what to do with my 30 year old NML whole life policies
Replies: 15
Views: 1111

Re: Help me decide what to do with my 30 year old NML whole life policies

Usually, at this point the dividends should be almost equal to the premiums if not more and the premiums will stop at age 65. They will likely, but are not guaranteed, to increase. At this point the bad decision you made decades ago is history and now you might have several attractive options. Do no...
by Dandy
Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retirment Allocation Question
Replies: 7
Views: 540

Re: Early Retirment Allocation Question

Seems like a reasonable bridge to Medicare - you might consider a bridge for the higher earner to age 70 Social Security. I did that and recently took SS at age 70 - nice :happy To help with this process I used distributions from our taxable account to help fund the bridge. I also had a moderate pen...
by Dandy
Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Partial shift from bond funds to CD ladder
Replies: 10
Views: 698

Re: Partial shift from bond funds to CD ladder

It is our first experience with rising interest rates in quite a long time. Not used to seeing "safe" bond funds have even a modest negative return even though we knew that was what happens when interest rates rise. I see no problem with using a short term CD ladder in place for some of your fixed i...
by Dandy
Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 29 YO With a big windfall. Invest or Pay off the mortgage?
Replies: 17
Views: 2398

Re: 29 YO With a big windfall. Invest or Pay off the mortgage?

A lot depends. Not helpful I know. I would look into the cost and benefits of refinancing your existing mortgage to either shorten the term or the monthly payout. But, if you are already maxing out tax deferred investing and have money left over to invest or pay down the existing mortgage then it ma...
by Dandy
Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: Who's increasing their equities as they age?
Replies: 74
Views: 5046

Re: Retirees: Who's increasing their equities as they age?

Not intentionally. TIRA is large and mostly fixed income about 20/80 and taxable is pretty much the opposite. Both about equal. So TIRA RMDs will tend to deplete fixed income and since equities outperform fixed income over the long run I will likely experience increasing equity allocation overall. D...
by Dandy
Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 24
Views: 2966

Re: The Two Fund Portfolio

...but isn't the whole idea simplicity). Simplicity isn't the "whole" idea but a worthy goal up to a point. Just like avoiding taxes is a worthy goal but not everyone should by muni bond funds. There is usually a trade off between the allocation you want and the allocation you accept if you go very...
by Dandy
Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Managing Retirement Accounts for RMDs in a (Possibly) Declining Stock Market
Replies: 5
Views: 541

Re: Managing Retirement Accounts for RMDs in a (Possibly) Declining Stock Market

I am glad others have weighed in. I was only addressing RMDs for IRAs not 401k. I didn't see the 401k mentioned specifically so I glossed over the fact that not everything was an IRA.
by Dandy
Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Managing Retirement Accounts for RMDs in a (Possibly) Declining Stock Market
Replies: 5
Views: 541

Re: Managing Retirement Accounts for RMDs in a (Possibly) Declining Stock Market

the government doesn't care if you take the RMD owed to them out of all your IRAs or just one - as long as the total RMD amount paid to them is based on the sum of all IRAs owned values at the end of the prior year. So you could take the total amount of RMD owed out of a single IRA. You might want t...
by Dandy
Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much cash do you keep at any time on checking?
Replies: 146
Views: 9187

Re: How much cash do you keep at any time on checking?

I used to fret about that but less now. I have an interest checking account and a savings account at the same Credit Union and authorize them to cover any overdraft with my savings account (for a minor charge). I don't believe I've ever bounced a check in my life but sure lost a lot of interest keep...
by Dandy
Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Market Funds
Replies: 13
Views: 2134

Re: Money Market Funds

Money Markets and FDIC saving products will do nicely in a gradual rising interest rate environment especially if inflation stays tamed. Bond funds will face a mild head wind so the difference between a mildly negative return on intermediate bond funds and a 1.5 to 2% return on Money Markets or FDIC...
by Dandy
Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?
Replies: 163
Views: 11238

Re: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?

Just turned 70 and have a 43/57 allocation. I am fortunate to have a high income floor in retirement and ample (I hope) assets. I never was an aggressive investor - tops I was 55/45. After 2008-9 drop I decided that even that was unnecessarily high given that I was just retired and wanted to collect...
by Dandy
Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help needed - Getting serious w/finances
Replies: 17
Views: 1566

Re: Help needed - Getting serious w/finances

Questions: 1. Should I roll over my old 401(k) into my new one or to an IRA? 2. Should I keep socking away cash or should I pay off debt? I am confused about what to do when my car lease is up. Should I try to find a safe car for under $15K? Should I pay down some of our student loans (we make too ...
by Dandy
Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting to invest at 35, is this a good plan for retirement planning?
Replies: 32
Views: 3548

Re: Starting to invest at 35, is this a good plan for retirement planning?

I think you are focused too much catching up and that might be leading you to be more aggressive than you need to be. Also, being relatively new to investing you might not have a good handle on your risk tolerance. Risk tolerance is very hard to determine especially if you have been investing during...
by Dandy
Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Odd Letter from Citibank Vis a Vis Checking Act bonus
Replies: 5
Views: 928

Re: Odd Letter from Citibank Vis a Vis Checking Act bonus

That reminds me of a recent B of A "bonus" plan. Something like put say $50k in their savings account and leave it there for 6 months and earn a $200 bonus. If all terms are met B of A will attempt to credit your account within 90 days. First they pay almost nothing on savings accounts - I think it ...
by Dandy
Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps
Replies: 77
Views: 8948

Re: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps

This is why, IMO, one should understand their funded ratio (viewtopic.php?t=219878) and where they stand in Otar's zones (viewtopic.php?t=144663#p2152834) when approaching and planning for retirement. Interesting way to determine whether your finances are on track to support your retirement income ...
by Dandy
Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps
Replies: 77
Views: 8948

Re: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps

1. In the lion's share of historic cases, implementation of the '4% rule' would not leave a retiree penniless at the 30 year mark. Further, I've not met anyone who has ever strictly implemented the '4% rule'; when the market nosedives, everyone I've ever spoken with or heard rumor of reduces their ...
by Dandy
Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps
Replies: 77
Views: 8948

Re: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps

That requires double the portfolio size that the '4% rule' suggests. For most investors, that's around another decade of saving and working. If you like what you do for money and are otherwise able to do so, fine. But I doubt that most would be willing to make the trade-off of a guaranteed decade o...
by Dandy
Mon Apr 02, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps
Replies: 77
Views: 8948

Re: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps

I sure don't see anything special about that to which we could apply alarmist statements like "stop playing the game." Not sure you understand Dr. Bernstein's idea fully. Stop playing the game seems to alarm you. It is an analogy suggesting those who have enough may have a different strategy. Proof...
by Dandy
Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps
Replies: 77
Views: 8948

Re: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps

Dr. Bernstein is a serious investment person and well respected. He wrote a catchy title about stop playing the game if you have enough. Let's assume, given who we are talking about, that he feels investing isn't really a game. I believe he meant that you need to stop participating in the traditiona...
by Dandy
Sun Apr 01, 2018 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps
Replies: 77
Views: 8948

Re: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps

Bernstein's idea was having 20 to 25 years of residual expenses i.e. the amount needed to supplement your retirement income in LMP and invest the rest anyway you want. It did not address early retirement as I recall, more normal retirement e.g. say 65 so 20 years would take you to 85 (near normal li...
by Dandy
Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps
Replies: 77
Views: 8948

Re: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps

My own answer is that I would not have the guts to rebalance from bonds to equites after a stock crash. Neither do I. I didn't do it in 2008-09 when I was just retired. I rebalanced a bit early but then said I need to preserve assets for a possible 30 year retirement and want to collect SS at 70. S...
by Dandy
Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps
Replies: 77
Views: 8948

Re: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps

The only part I disagree with, and it’s just my opinion, is that I believe 50/50 entails less overall risk than 100% TIPS, in a large taxable account, meant to provide for a 30+ year retirement. If you are talking about Dr. Bernstein's idea you first have to have enough. By that he most likely mean...
by Dandy
Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10028

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

I am not convinced I need global weighting of equities especially since international have a high correlation with US equities. Some allocation seems appropriate but there is nothing particularly wrong with global weighting. Even less of a case with global weighting of fixed income if the purpose of...
by Dandy
Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps
Replies: 77
Views: 8948

Re: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps

I still think the idea is effectively mental accounting that makes a false appeal to certainty and security that is not really there. What is metal accounting about changing a good portion of your fixed income to a TIPS ladder or other "safe" fixed income products based upon your expected drawdown ...
by Dandy
Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10028

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

I didn't read every post but from what I saw nothing I read suggested American exceptionalism etc. People talked about whether there was sufficient correlation to justify a global weighting or if many firms had a large percent of income from abroad was international investing or global weighting is ...
by Dandy
Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps
Replies: 77
Views: 8948

Re: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps

I think Dr. Bernstein means put your living expenses (your spending floor) into a TIPS ladder and you can do what you want with the rest - but he should say that explicitly if that's what he means. I believe Dr. Bernstein suggests the TIPS ladder as a preferred option since it should take most if n...
by Dandy
Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable account investment options during retirement
Replies: 4
Views: 371

Re: Taxable account investment options during retirement

The Retirement Income Fund is a good choice for retirees especially if they are not investment savvy and don't want a lot of equity type risk. Sometimes you just have to pay the taxes. You could look at Tax managed Balanced fund but it has about 50% allocated to equities. You could offset that perce...
by Dandy
Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps
Replies: 77
Views: 8948

Re: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps

The problem is that over longer periods, “safe” fixed income has a greater risk of becoming “unsafe” inflated-away fixed income. While “unsafe equity” has a greater chance of providing the horsepower to “safely” mitigate “unsafe” inflation. Hence how I arrived at 50/50 or 40/60. Pick your poison. T...
by Dandy
Sat Mar 31, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps
Replies: 77
Views: 8948

Re: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps

A broader point is if you have enough you probably need to consider securing your retirement funding for double digit years by allocating to "safe" products vs continuing to take the same level of risk. e.g. a tilt toward asset preservation vs growth for growth sake. Because most who have enough hav...
by Dandy
Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10028

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

It might suggest that the more recent push for global weighting of equities may not be all that critical.
by Dandy
Fri Mar 30, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When did you know your kids would go to college?
Replies: 91
Views: 4041

Re: When did you know your kids would go to college?

I am not going to force either one of them to do something they don't want to do, and will not send them off to school if their heart is really not in it. I get your point. Have seen sons of relatives and neighbors who were unmotivated students but blossomed when they got into a trade that matched ...
by Dandy
Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Resign from job or possible termination
Replies: 68
Views: 7444

Re: Resign from job or possible termination

Been there and it is not a great situation to be in. In my case the job was very stressful and I had a stressful situation in the family and was 52. I found the stress declined when I became resigned to the fact that was going to be terminated. I focused on doing my job, helping my staff and custome...
by Dandy
Fri Mar 30, 2018 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is backtesting worthless? Are there ANY insights you can get from it?
Replies: 69
Views: 4382

Re: Is backtesting worthless? Are there ANY insights you can get from it?

I think backtesting can be a useful tool but it can easily be misused or misunderstood. How far back are you backtesting? Are you including the great depression when there was about a 90% drop in equities? Does going back that far make sense? Are you looking at how a 60/40 allocation has performed o...
by Dandy
Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Other than simplicity/convenience, what's the case to be made for a total bond portfolio?
Replies: 14
Views: 1003

Re: Other than simplicity/convenience, what's the case to be made for a total bond portfolio?

In my opinion, ANY low-cost, good quality, diversified short- or intermediate-term bond fund (or safe fixed-income security such as CDs or Treasuries) will do the important job of providing safety in a portfolio. +1 I haven't heard many say this but I agree with Taylor Total bond fund is a very goo...
by Dandy
Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA - market timing vs. small adjustments vs buy and hold
Replies: 36
Views: 1760

Re: AA - market timing vs. small adjustments vs buy and hold

These are somewhat tough times for those close to or just retired. Stocks have had a very long bull market and with interest rates rising there is downward pressure on most fixed income holdings. Add to that looking at a drop in earnings, loss of human capital and the prospects of withdrawal instead...
by Dandy
Thu Mar 29, 2018 6:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What should I do with my DB assets?
Replies: 7
Views: 781

Re: What should I do with my DB assets?

I would put the 13k back into the pension and move your high fee IRA to Vanguard. With a nice pension and Social Security you will likely have a nice retirement income floor. An less need to rely on your investments. As a retiree who has both I am glad for that advantage which is becoming increasing...
by Dandy
Thu Mar 29, 2018 6:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reduce future RMD, Manage Retirement Income and Taxes
Replies: 10
Views: 1185

Re: Reduce future RMD, Manage Retirement Income and Taxes

I feel your pain. Don't need much if any of my RMD to support our current lifestyle. But, since your can't take it with your RMDs are a reminder that you have to deal with the enviable position of having more assets/income then you need. After a lifetime of saving, investing, living below your means...