Search found 1252 matches

by Da5id
Wed Aug 16, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Taxable Account Allocation of Individual Funds vs Target Date Fund
Replies: 10
Views: 294

Re: Help with Taxable Account Allocation of Individual Funds vs Target Date Fund

No, that is not more tax friendly because it contains the same bond fund - it is the bonds that may not be tax-efficient. Note that it can be more tax friendly in that splitting up the stocks/bonds can enable or enhance tax loss harvesting if, for example, stocks fall and bonds rise. That said, if ...
by Da5id
Wed Aug 16, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going passive is an active decision
Replies: 27
Views: 1174

Re: Going passive is an active decision

Lol, fair enough. How about "Self-Preservation": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-preservation Truth is, they may well be right. And they certainly know vastly more than I do. I don't disagree with their premise (that US markets are or at least may be overpriced), just in their ability to do tact...
by Da5id
Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going passive is an active decision
Replies: 27
Views: 1174

Re: Going passive is an active decision

See - Overconfidence bias: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect I don't think you've diagnosed their issue accurately. I'd go with this one myself: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” Their salary depends on the...
by Da5id
Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what % of international stock
Replies: 21
Views: 637

Re: what % of international stock

33% is the one true answer, that being what I've selected by a highly scientific process. Bogle theory answer would seem to me to be market weight (buy the haystack). Bogle actual answer is 0% (because US is awesome) but if you really have to no more than 20%. Vanguard's current answer is 40% based ...
by Da5id
Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going passive is an active decision
Replies: 27
Views: 1174

Re: Going passive is an active decision

Can't help but read stuff like this as the death rattle of a legacy industry. Conflating the colloquial meaning of "active" with the context specific meaning when discussing investments is a charlatan's trick. What a bunch of garbage. Ok ok ok I admit we all live in Lake Wobegon where the active ma...
by Da5id
Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about market timing the current market
Replies: 27
Views: 1281

Re: Question about market timing the current market

The sad part is the brother could easily be correct (or not of course). But if he is correct, and market crashes in next few months, he'll now take the lesson that he understands the market far more than he actually does. This works kind of like people remembering their gambling winnings more than l...
by Da5id
Tue Aug 15, 2017 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: best credit card for airline mile
Replies: 28
Views: 4625

Re: best credit card for airline mile

Sorry for restarting this thread - I thought this would be the best thread to state my question - I have a Chase United Airlines credit card. I used to travel a lot on business and the yearly fee ($95) was not bad in light of what I was doing. I have since started working from home and travel maybe...
by Da5id
Tue Aug 15, 2017 7:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?
Replies: 66
Views: 5825

Re: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?

A 65 year old couple today can expect to spend $404,253 on lifetime Medicare-related expenses, in today's dollars. The expected rate of inflation for healthcare costs is 5.47%. There is an old saying that anything that can't go on for ever won't. Healthcare costs can't as a practical matter exceed ...
by Da5id
Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Rule has changed.....not
Replies: 80
Views: 8027

Re: 4% Rule has changed.....not

And of course, nothing is "iron-clad" safe. But 4% along with some common sense is an amazingly secure place to be. If you substitute "historically has been an amazingly secure place" for "is an amazingly secure place" I'll of course go along. Otherwise it is just a prediction with only (IMHO) a re...
by Da5id
Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Rule has changed.....not
Replies: 80
Views: 8027

Re: 4% Rule has changed.....not

I guess at some point you have to accept that there is no iron-clad "safe". 4% used to be considered safe (after 10% was safe during the inflation years) then 2% became the "bulletproof" number. And if it's all a bubble that will crash away, then 1% is the current number (2% crashed down by half) a...
by Da5id
Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Rule has changed.....not
Replies: 80
Views: 8027

Re: 4% Rule has changed.....not

For example, some have described the period 1968 to 1982 as one long downturn. But the real-inflation adjusted total return of the S&P 500 was only -1.4% in the 1970s. There were several occasions in that decade when an investor could have sold equities without losing money. But if you retire into ...
by Da5id
Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Rule has changed.....not
Replies: 80
Views: 8027

Re: 4% Rule has changed.....not

Good for you. That suits your temperament and, presumably, your need to take risk. I can retire comfortably now on a 2.5% SWR, mostly covered by dividends/interest, which makes my need to take risk rather less than it once was. I have "enough", and don't have need to assume higher market risks to h...
by Da5id
Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Rule has changed.....not
Replies: 80
Views: 8027

Re: 4% Rule has changed.....not

Millions of other investors also stayed the course. The ones who did have courage and the ones who believed, like me, that markets always recover in just a few years. Mind you, I barely noticed 2008-2009 as my job wasn't in danger and I wasn't then near retirement. Now that I'm nearer to possibly e...
by Da5id
Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3712
Views: 977665

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

lostdog wrote:U.S. up international down. :)
Bogle was Right!
by Da5id
Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Rule has changed.....not
Replies: 80
Views: 8027

Re: 4% Rule has changed.....not

Was 2008-2009 an especially bad recession? Perhaps, but no worse than 1982, IMO. Why do so many investors lack courage? 2008-2009 had the potential to be vastly worse than it was, and was being billed as the potential collapse of the financial system. And it might have been such, absent huge bailou...
by Da5id
Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3712
Views: 977665

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Can we have some fun with this thread? I bet tomorrow will be another down day. I bet it will be an up day. :sharebeer Futures indicate down modestly [edit - now up, always in motion the future is], so not a great bet. But who knows, and unless one is (shudder) a day trader who really cares... Stoc...
by Da5id
Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trip Cancellation Insurance.
Replies: 37
Views: 2437

Re: Trip Cancellation Insurance.

Is this a tour? How much of the trip is not refundable? Air fare might offer change for a couple hundred dollars. Are you booking hotels? Cancellation deadline? I'd try to calculate what exactly I'm insuring against and balance against the premium. You also are insuring against the tour operator fo...
by Da5id
Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trip Cancellation Insurance.
Replies: 37
Views: 2437

Re: Trip Cancellation Insurance.

We recently booked a 7 week vacation through homeaway. Home away offers trip insurance . AAA does too and we are wondering if any credit cards offer it too.BH travelers,. What do you use? Chase Sapphire Reserve offers some for free. See here https://www.chase.com/card-benefits/sapphirereserve/travel
by Da5id
Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 100
Views: 6079

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

I suppose there will be a lot of back and forth. I further suppose that Siamond will discover that the better returns that we often see in dividend stocks are due to the underlying factors and not the dividends themselves. The pie fight will be a lot of fun but ultimately Siamond will probably prov...
by Da5id
Wed Aug 09, 2017 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now
Replies: 50
Views: 6492

Re: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now

Well for starters Buffent and Munger have said that Berkshire is looking for a big acquisition target to deploy its cash in - which tells us they aren't interested in considering broad market investments that we are looking for insight into or multiple smaller investments that our stock picker frie...
by Da5id
Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time to leave our dentist??
Replies: 54
Views: 5971

Re: Time to leave our dentist??

Any professional, whether a dentist, a doctor, a car mechanic, or an accountant knows things you don't. You have to trust them and their judgement, which if they aren't honest lets them take advantage of you. If you find you can't trust them, you need to find one you can trust... I love my dentist. ...
by Da5id
Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now
Replies: 50
Views: 6492

Re: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now

Berkshire doesn't buy the market (or large subsection however you want to cut it) so I don't think you can read anything from their corporate actions into their perspective on the overall market value or direction. Why can't you read anything into it? Berkshire buys shares of public companies, buys...
by Da5id
Mon Aug 07, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: WSJ: "Sapphire Reserve Cards Aren’t Very Rewarding for J.P. Morgan"
Replies: 54
Views: 6864

Re: WSJ: "Sapphire Reserve Cards Aren’t Very Rewarding for J.P. Morgan"

I can't imagine I'm a profitable customer, nor are most boglehead types. They make money on swipe fees as well. It's not just about profitability but risk also. They have to maintain a careful balance between customers that are less financially risky and earning lower profit versus higher profit an...
by Da5id
Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Credit Card company email "Do you recognize this purchase?"
Replies: 27
Views: 2118

Re: Credit Card company email "Do you recognize this purchase?"

What specifically is it that you think will happen? If I go to a page full of cat photos and click a link on that page then with it too there is "no telling what happens when you click on it". This is why, in general, you should set some basic security features - ask about cookies, only d...
by Da5id
Mon Aug 07, 2017 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What Is Vanguard 500 Index's Achilles Heel?"
Replies: 17
Views: 2598

Re: "What Is Vanguard 500 Index's Achilles Heel?"

isn't one also exposed to beta when targeting small and/or value factors? Yes, but as today's WSJ front page article (h ttps://www.wsj.com/articles/hot-stock-rally-tests-the-patience-of-a-choosy-lot-value-investors-1502020804 for those with access) proves, Larry Swedroe was wrong*! *attempt at humo...
by Da5id
Mon Aug 07, 2017 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: WSJ: "Sapphire Reserve Cards Aren’t Very Rewarding for J.P. Morgan"
Replies: 54
Views: 6864

Re: WSJ: "Sapphire Reserve Cards Aren’t Very Rewarding for J.P. Morgan"

I don't tend to worry about the fate of the CC companies. I do wonder if they will get more clever about profiling "bad" customers like me though. I'm by no means a churner, opening 1-2 cards per year. But other than meeting bonuses I never get less than 2% on a card, and average rather mo...
by Da5id
Thu Aug 03, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MIL wants to move in with us
Replies: 45
Views: 3231

Re: MIL wants to move in with us

Feels to me like your wife shouldn't have cooked up a plan with MIL without consulting you as well, as this impacts you significantly. Having raised and kind of agreed to this with MIL puts you in a difficult spot. If there were no alternatives (not enough money, etc) I'd say well you have to do wha...
by Da5id
Thu Aug 03, 2017 7:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Widow Benefit Question (urgent)
Replies: 27
Views: 1950

Re: Social Security Widow Benefit Question (urgent)

Today (Aug 3rd) mom received a SS deposit of only $1077 This seems wrong to me. Everything I read seems to say she should receive *at least* $1751 I am looking for some wise BH insight before we call the local SS office later today. Calling/visiting the local SS office for an explanation seems like...
by Da5id
Thu Aug 03, 2017 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you have to rebalance??
Replies: 16
Views: 1488

Re: Do you have to rebalance??

The studies on the benefits of rebalancing show very slightly better returns with a two year rebalance anyways. So, taking a little longer to get it done shouldn't hurt. Just curious, which study? And is this one of those that shows rebalancing more slowly helps just because you have on average hig...
by Da5id
Thu Aug 03, 2017 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you have to rebalance??
Replies: 16
Views: 1488

Re: Do you have to rebalance??

As retiredjg says, international and US stocks generally diverge pretty slowly. Rebalancing using just contributions (if any) or shifting dividends from one to the other will often do the job. And assuming your holdings are pretty simple it isn't hard to do.
by Da5id
Thu Aug 03, 2017 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is now time to move into international stocks?
Replies: 57
Views: 6558

Re: Is now time to move into international stocks?

Pick an allocation and stick to it. No need to get into "is now the time" type questions, because nobody really knows (though many think they do).
by Da5id
Thu Jul 27, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31215

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

My original reply with regard to this exchange was in response to user Whakamole , who wrote: "Wasn't there advice on this forum at one point which boiled down to "Bogle recommends a max of 20% international, Vanguard recommends a minimum of 20% International, therefore you should go with...
by Da5id
Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the portfolio role of a leveraged bond fund like PONDX?
Replies: 44
Views: 1719

Re: What is the portfolio role of a leveraged bond fund like PONDX?

The concern with PONDX is nice growth of inflows, more or less benefiting from PTRAX's downfall, but somehow it still performs well. I wonder how much of this rate of inflow is just investors desperation for yield. I wonder if they fully appreciating the risks as this is not a normal bond fund.
by Da5id
Wed Jul 26, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying EE and I bonds in children's names ?
Replies: 3
Views: 390

Re: Buying EE and I bonds in children's names ?

My wife and I each have personal accounts at treasury direct and have bought both I and EE bonds. Can one also open accounts in (minor) children's names and buy for them as well up to the limits ? What are the restrictions and any implications ? The other post answers much of what you ask. Another ...
by Da5id
Wed Jul 26, 2017 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing Education and Mansplaining
Replies: 128
Views: 7893

Re: Investing Education and Mansplaining

OP, I did not want advise from parents at that point. It was after being out on my own for a couple of years when I realized how smart my parents were. Reminds me of a quote often attributed (apparently incorrectly) to Mark Twain: When I was a boy of fourteen, my father was so ignorant I could hard...
by Da5id
Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are your monthly expenses?
Replies: 59
Views: 5882

Re: What are your monthly expenses?

Over 50% but with my expenses being so high, I'm still not satisfied. *Note* I live rent free, no debt, car payed for. Live your life and enjoy yourself. A 50% savings rate is great. As long as you can cut out frills if needed (job loss, housing no longer free, other life changes) I'd say you are d...
by Da5id
Tue Jul 25, 2017 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31215

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Hmm. Advisor; you are healthy and don't need to waste money on life insurance Result: you didn't die within 20 years Conclusion: advisor was right Advisor: sure, 90% of your net worth in your company's stock is a good plan Result: lots of money made (you work for Google or Apple say) Conclusion; adv...
by Da5id
Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31215

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Active bet worked is not the same as person X was right, even if that person was Mr. Bogle. Or so it seems to me. To put it differently, presumably the US percentage of the total world market cap won't keep increasing forever. When/how does one call the top? Looking at the graph from Simplegift abov...
by Da5id
Mon Jul 24, 2017 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8369

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

Right, but even if the US share of the global market cap stops growing (which is indeed likely), it doesn't follow that ex-US will do any better than it has been doing. What do you mean? If the US share of global market share stays constant, that would mean that US and ex-US are growing at same rat...
by Da5id
Sat Jul 22, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8369

Re: The crowd is always wrong

$10,000 invested in US market in 01/1986 is worth $214,366 while the same investment in foreign market is worth only $87,284. Think about it! That's a big difference. Yes, think about it. If you wait long enough and the trends continue, the value of the US stock market will gradually approach 100% ...
by Da5id
Fri Jul 21, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MVNO's versus the Big 4
Replies: 52
Views: 4390

Re: MVNO's versus the Big 4

So I've narrowed it down to AT&T and Cricket, given that Consumer Cellular does not have coverage where my daughter will likely be going to college. What is the difference between the two of them, given that Cricket is owned by AT&T? Thanks. By the way, I called AT&T - for three phones ...
by Da5id
Fri Jul 21, 2017 7:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MVNO's versus the Big 4
Replies: 52
Views: 4390

Re: MVNO's versus the Big 4

Great info! Would someone please explain to me what roaming is? Thanks. Roaming is the negotiated right to switch to the network of a different carrier when your phone can't find a tower of your primary carrier. Cricket also has much more limited international support. You can use in Canada/Mexico ...
by Da5id
Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8369

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

I think the better reason US only folks have is manifest destiny, at least it's unfalsifiable. I'd argue even if true, that isn't a great argument. You'd have to believe not only is the US a better place to invest for whatever reason (innovation, business climate, labor market, demographics, regula...
by Da5id
Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Office 2007 end of life
Replies: 27
Views: 1784

Re: Office 2007 end of life

I hadn't heard of this, and I still use Office 2007 as well. May be time to try out the free competitors. LibreOffice comes to mind, it can open most Microsoft formats pretty well apparently. Office 2007 does what I want, and I'm not very inclined to pay for a replacement. But I don't like the risks...
by Da5id
Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8369

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

http://intmstat.com/exponential-logarithmic-functions/nikkei-225-to-sep2011.png +1. (Although the nikkei has doubled since the chart ended in Sept. 2011, it just closed at 20,145, as opposed to the December 1989 high of 38915.87.) Back to the OP's Question. The answer is No; no one can convince you...
by Da5id
Wed Jul 19, 2017 6:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Maintaining Boglehead Outlier Edge Despite Affects of Group Trends
Replies: 7
Views: 929

Re: Maintaining Boglehead Outlier Edge Despite Affects of Group Trends

c. Many people have a 401k now and a retirement fund now. This didn't use to be the case. If all of us have a lot of money when we retire, won't that make everything EXPENSIVE in retirement? In other words, it may not matter that I have a lot of money in retirement if everyone else has a lot of mon...
by Da5id
Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: % bogleheads of overall population
Replies: 82
Views: 10466

Re: % bogleheads of overall population

A little basic math: About 62,000 Boglehead members, US population is about 320 million (world population about 7.5 billion), that equates to <0.1% of the population depending on the population you use in the denominator. Any way you look at it, Bogleheads are nowhere near a majority of the populat...
by Da5id
Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Good Service for Flagship Investors
Replies: 35
Views: 4285

Re: Good Service for Flagship Investors

I believe that anecdotes aren't a great way to compare companies service, but rather broad surveys are better. Anecdotes tend to be negative, because stories about good professional service aren't all that interesting to hear and we rarely are as motivated to communicate them. I've personally had go...
by Da5id
Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cellphone nightmare - please help
Replies: 24
Views: 2117

Re: Cellphone nightmare - please help

bloom2708 wrote:Cricket Wireless is an MVNO that uses the AT&T network infrastructure.


As a minor nit, Cricket used to be an MVNO. It is now just a secondary brand, as it is wholly owned by AT&T, the company whose network it uses :)
by Da5id
Tue Jul 18, 2017 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cellphone nightmare - please help
Replies: 24
Views: 2117

Re: Cellphone nightmare - please help

brak wrote:Thanks for all the great replies. What is MVNO?


It is a reseller of wireless. It is a "mobile virtual network operator" who pays a carrier who has infrastructure for use of their cell tower network. For example, Credo (your company) is an MVNO who operates on Sprint's cellular network.