Search found 160 matches

by DR
Mon May 21, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking for a custom retirement savings calculator for Airline pilot Direct contribution
Replies: 15
Views: 1188

Re: Looking for a custom retirement savings calculator for Airline pilot Direct contribution

You can do it with MaxiFi Planner, and that would show you the total accumulation in retirement. It might be a bit more than you need.
by DR
Sun May 20, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Firecalc or I-ORP altered your retirement plans?
Replies: 35
Views: 3684

Re: Has Firecalc or I-ORP altered your retirement plans?

I used a different planning calculator, not one of those two. But I discovered that by optimizing my SS withdraw strategy I was able to buy myself 2.5 years of early retirement.
by DR
Fri May 18, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring soon - some questions
Replies: 27
Views: 3086

Re: Retiring soon - some questions

I'm a little confused by your assumption about $85K of spending. I took your numbers and put them into my planning calculator--MaxiFi Planner, I work for the company--just out of curiosity because that 85K just didn't sound right to me. I created a hypothetical earnings history to create a combined ...
by DR
Thu May 17, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Percent Confidence in Planning Scenario
Replies: 27
Views: 998

Re: Percent Confidence in Planning Scenario

The simple answer is that a model is not a contract; it isn't even a promise. A model is an estimate and a theory that gives one some idea of what depends on what. This is useful for planning but does not make a model a plan. I agree, dbr. I prefer the concept of a "model" over a "plan" though some...
by DR
Thu May 17, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 252
Views: 45733

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

I've never thought that net worth was a very interesting number, and I can't see that it's all that relevant to spending in retirement. We don't live on net worth; we live on spending. As others pointed out, we also don't live on "income." We dissave for the most part, which is not income. Much of m...
by DR
Wed May 16, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Percent Confidence in Planning Scenario
Replies: 27
Views: 998

Re: Percent Confidence in Planning Scenario

retiresoon222 wrote: ↑
Wed May 16, 2018 3:31 pm

One of my "concerns" is that we end up working much longer than we "need" to (due to our conservative nature) and look back and say, why didn't we stop working sooner? I know that these are first world problems...
I think that's a very legit concern.
by DR
Wed May 16, 2018 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Percent Confidence in Planning Scenario
Replies: 27
Views: 998

Re: Percent Confidence in Planning Scenario

From what I've heard and read, with that kind of planning tool, 90% is considered pretty good by most people. The problem with MC analysis is assuming that past markets are going to be a valuable indicator of future markets. I prefer to assume some nominal or real rate of return that is very conserv...
by DR
Wed May 16, 2018 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Friend says "Stock market will crash, invest in silver" - thoughts?
Replies: 127
Views: 7540

Re: Friend says "Stock market will crash, invest in silver" - thoughts?

A highly respected friend of mine is an expert in macroeconomics, and warned me to stay away from stocks. He said that come October or March next year, there are likely to be big crashes. He said companies were artificially inflating their stocks. (I don't understand the detail!) He advised shiftin...
by DR
Tue May 15, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the best website for tracking stock performance with dividends reinvested over long periods of time?
Replies: 2
Views: 585

Re: What is the best website for tracking stock performance with dividends reinvested over long periods of time?

I like Portfolio Visualizer because it appears to use that Morningstar data and it allows one to combine tickers or combine asset classes and see that return. I don't think you can do that in Morningstar directly. https://portfoliovisualizer.com You can create a user account and save your portfolios.
by DR
Tue May 15, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: How did you fall in love with investing?
Replies: 49
Views: 2538

Re: How did you fall in love with investing?

My involvement with personal finance and investing began in the mid-seventies. 1. Even though it may be considered irrelevant today, back then Money magazine was one of the few places to learn about investing. Because of Money, I made my first index fund investment...Vanguard Index Trust, 500 Portf...
by DR
Tue May 15, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: How did you fall in love with investing?
Replies: 49
Views: 2538

Re: How did you fall in love with investing?

My biggest investment in life--i.e., spending for future production--was in my education. Investing in a few more college degrees gave me job and lifestyle opportunities that I never would have had with my B.A. alone. I thought I was interested in "investing" in the late 1990s with the run up to the...
by DR
Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would Roth Conversions be worthwhile for me?
Replies: 18
Views: 1625

Re: Would Roth Conversions be worthwhile for me?

bumping with the additional information provided, thank you. PS - Dan - what calculator are you referring to? Thanks all again. MaxiFi Planner, $99 https://maxifiplanner.com You can create a base plan without the conversion and then compare available spending with an alternative plan that models th...
by DR
Sun Apr 29, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would Roth Conversions be worthwhile for me?
Replies: 18
Views: 1625

Re: Would Roth Conversions be worthwhile for me?

You just need to use the right planning calculator, one that is factoring in taxes--fed and state--and one that can benchmark your spending without the conversion and after the conversion and compare which model creates the highest annual, inflation-adjusted spending pattern.

Dan
by DR
Sun Apr 29, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Visiting OK and KS with family
Replies: 31
Views: 1762

Re: Visiting OK and KS with family

You'll get a good look at the flint hills as you drive up to Lawrence from Wichita. I grew up in Topeka, went to both KU and KSU and aside from seeing the prairie, there's prob no reason to make that trip out to Manhattan. I'd drive past Topeka honestly and stop in Lawrence. Topeka is the cap city, ...
by DR
Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire at age 40?
Replies: 158
Views: 16679

Re: Can I retire at age 40?

In my model, you'd be borrowing constrained assuming you make smooth withdraws of $67,000 / year for the next 60 years from the retirement account. So you'd have a household discretionary spending--i.e. after taxes and housing--of $99K but much of that pays for children and scaled is $55,000 for the...
by DR
Tue Jan 03, 2017 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 245
Views: 34805

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

I'm 58 and plan on working through age 62. So if I remove 3.5 years of wages, remove my contributions and employer match, recalculate the SS earnings benefit because of the loss of earnings over the next 3.5 years . . . . I would need to wake up to a tax-free appearance of 350K in my checking accoun...
by DR
Sat Dec 10, 2016 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement planning implications for eventual death of spouse
Replies: 27
Views: 2797

Re: Retirement planning implications for eventual death of spouse

Use the ESPlanner calculator: it will take account of all those contingencies including tax change, SS change, pension change, etc and show you each survivor's living standard in any given year.
by DR
Fri Dec 09, 2016 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should you retire early or keep working?
Replies: 28
Views: 4513

Re: Should you retire early or keep working?

I think the article touches on two important points. First, the key consideration (and, for that matter, the key challenge) is freedom . I didn't retire early to retire early, as if doing so bestowed bragging rights or some sense of enhanced status. I did so because there's so many other things I w...
by DR
Fri Dec 09, 2016 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just too conservative for my own good
Replies: 30
Views: 5176

Re: Just too conservative for my own good

...Nearing retirement, we are currently invested around 45/55 stocks/bonds... Just as a way of seeing where you are compared to Morningstar's benchmarks for target-date funds, here's a chart. The three smooth curves are derived by the same kind of methodologies target-date funds use, and Morningsta...
by DR
Fri Dec 09, 2016 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just too conservative for my own good
Replies: 30
Views: 5176

Re: Just too conservative for my own good

I never understand this talk about being "too conservative" with asset allocation as if there's some absolute standard for AA. First of all, "conservative" or "aggressive" is not only relative to one's subjective risk aversion (and we are all different in this regard) but it's also relative to one's...
by DR
Sat Apr 16, 2016 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I know I have enough to retire
Replies: 17
Views: 4357

Re: How do I know I have enough to retire

You don't say how much longer on the mortgage and a few other things. But even just glancing at the numbers, others in that situation would say: "how are we ever going to scrape by on that amount?" and others would say, "how are we every going to spend all that money?" Just use FireCalc or ESPlanner...
by DR
Thu Apr 14, 2016 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is this a SS filing no-brainer?
Replies: 11
Views: 1397

Re: Is this a SS filing no-brainer?

Just spend the $40 and put it in Maximize My Social Security and get the present value for both options and see which one is higher. To me, that's the no brainer. :)
by DR
Tue Feb 23, 2016 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: where to get 3% real with the least amount of risk?
Replies: 56
Views: 7948

Re: where to get 3% real with the least amount of risk?

Lotta reading comprehension probs here it seems. OP didn't ask for 3% real with NO risk. OP didn't ask for 3% real guaranteed. OP made a reasonable ask for "the best chance of returning 3% real with the least amount of risk". +1 That said, it seems that in these kinds of discussions--in these forum...
by DR
Tue Feb 23, 2016 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: where to get 3% real with the least amount of risk?
Replies: 56
Views: 7948

Re: where to get 3% real with the least amount of risk?

You can backtest some portfolios, but, for example, 100% in intermediate term bond fund like FBIDX (passive AGG index fund) returned 3.7% inflation adjusted return from 1991-present with a standard deviation of 3.56%. If you juice that up a bit with an S&P index fund like FUSEX and use 20% stock and...
by DR
Mon Feb 22, 2016 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Late to Bogleheads but close to retiring...help please
Replies: 4
Views: 1451

Re: Late to Bogleheads but close to retiring...help please

Your plan, as per DR, is heavily dependent on when you decide to take SS. I would try to map out the next 5 years in terms of income, withdrawals and taxes to help you decide when to take SS. Below is a template I developed for a 5 year plan. You will have to modify it, but it is a decent starting ...
by DR
Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Late to Bogleheads but close to retiring...help please
Replies: 4
Views: 1451

Re: Late to Bogleheads but close to retiring...help please

In my comments below I'm not really answering the asset allocation question like you asked, but indirectly maybe I am. That is, I'm showing what your living standard or discretionary spending would be (in today's dollars) assuming that your average nominal return on the taxable assets in 3% and the ...
by DR
Fri Jan 29, 2016 11:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Not using HSA money
Replies: 8
Views: 1318

Re: Not using HSA money

Yes, this is OK. If you keep your receipts, you can withdraw HSA funds against receipts at any time even years later . While more onerous, this is the most tax advantageous way to use an HSA. I keep my receipts and hope to withdraw funds triple-tax preferred in 40 years on my deathbed. And you can ...
by DR
Thu Jan 28, 2016 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Most efficient way to improve my writing ability?
Replies: 56
Views: 4069

Re: Most efficient way to improve my writing ability?

I teach writing at the university. That's generally good advice above in my view. In particular, I believe that a daily journal can help a lot. I also think that imitation is underrated. (see the sections in Ben Franklin's autobiography where he describes improving his writing). Find samples of writ...
by DR
Tue Dec 29, 2015 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your 2 retirement numbers?
Replies: 260
Views: 35534

Re: What are your 2 retirement numbers?

About 450K denominated in 2016 dollars. (assuming inflation of 3% and nominal returns of 5.5%).
by DR
Tue Dec 29, 2015 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much inflation in the US per year?
Replies: 56
Views: 5590

Re: How much inflation in the US per year?

An interesting discussion, but now I have a question. Let us suppose that an ISP looking forward for 20 years assumes a 4% inflation rate as a model assumption. But inflation comes in over that 20 period at 2.5%-3%. How does that affect returns? In other words, if one assumes a 7% 'net' return (acc...
by DR
Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we call it "investing"?
Replies: 35
Views: 4065

Re: Why do we call it "investing"?

Investments, Bodie, Kane & Marcus, 7th edition, page 1, first sentence: An investment is the current commitment of money or other resources in the expectation of reaping future benefits. Just like the dictionary. For a guy who seems to appreciate the work of Thornton Wilder or O. Henry, you seem od...
by DR
Sat Dec 26, 2015 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Investing Advice
Replies: 15
Views: 2527

Re: Retirement Investing Advice

I created a model where you work through age 66 and retire at age 67. Both models assume you both make 75K through age 66 and get a COLA adjustment each year. You both start a ROTH and contribute 2,400 each to it through age 66. Assuming current Federal tax rates and state taxes like say Michigan. I...
by DR
Sat Dec 26, 2015 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we call it "investing"?
Replies: 35
Views: 4065

Re: Why do we call it "investing"?

I agree with Roche that what most of us are doing is allocating savings, not investing. I believe investing viewed as "spending for future production" is more technically correct. In the case of mutual funds, we're just trading shares with one another. Spending money on college is an investment or b...
by DR
Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to clean a Karastan rug
Replies: 17
Views: 2298

Re: How to clean a Karastan rug

I have lots of new and antique wool rugs. I just wash them with the garden hose and let them hang over the rail on the deck to try. But it's getting cold out there now! Maybe wait til spring.
by DR
Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: can i reasonably expect to retire at 62...
Replies: 36
Views: 5709

Re: can i reasonably expect to retire at 62...

FWIW: I used to do much more detailed estimates, even writing code not unlike ESPLanner, but in the end sensitivity studies led me to realize that with all the assumptions I was just generating false precision. You are right. Indeed, as Whitehead said, "the exactness is a fake." I still like models...
by DR
Tue Dec 22, 2015 7:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: can i reasonably expect to retire at 62...
Replies: 36
Views: 5709

Re: can i reasonably expect to retire at 62...

I describing taxes denominated in today's dollars. Take age 70 for example. In my model he has $29,692 in SS, 24,740 in taxable qualified withdrawals. His Total Income in the year 2027 is thus 54,432. In FL he'd pay no state tax, but in AL, he'd pay $811 in state tax and $3,876 in Federal tax using ...
by DR
Mon Dec 21, 2015 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: can i reasonably expect to retire at 62...
Replies: 36
Views: 5709

Re: can i reasonably expect to retire at 62...

If Ballpark $40K, where it may be 10% or 20% lower is enough you are good to go. If $40K is on the rough edge of enough, then your retirement is on the rough edge. The good news is even a part time job bringing in several thousand dollars a year would provide some margin. That's good Rodc. I wasn't...
by DR
Mon Dec 21, 2015 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: can i reasonably expect to retire at 62...
Replies: 36
Views: 5709

Re: can i reasonably expect to retire at 62...

I think that at this point you are too focused on your asset allocation without having the macro picture. AA is of course important, and there's probably some very good advice given above. But the first thing I would suggest doing is getting a macro picture of your economy across the years from the ...
by DR
Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Math to include large fixed pension/annuity in retirement planning.
Replies: 19
Views: 2620

Re: Math to include large fixed pension/annuity in retirement planning.

I was curious how this stream of payments would look to someone who was currently, say, 56 years old and began taking the receipts in the year 2020 (at age 60) through age 100 beginning with 100K in today's dollars. I just used ESPlanner to calculate this stream of income. By the way, you could make...
by DR
Tue Dec 15, 2015 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need some confidence to retire...
Replies: 18
Views: 2438

Re: I need some confidence to retire...

Your SS amount at 70 will be $44,272 in today's dollars (annually of course). The wife's would be $16,770 (as you say 50% of yours at FRA). Is this fairly accurate? If so I am not sure what you are worried about. I agree. The OP did not give me his actual earnings history, so I just put 200K per ye...
by DR
Tue Dec 15, 2015 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need some confidence to retire...
Replies: 18
Views: 2438

Re: I need some confidence to retire...

I could probably add $75,000 to $100,000 if I worked another year. My employer has asked me to continue as a "1099 consultant" for an undetermined amount of time. I am willingto do this for 6 months or so...but I really want to retire. It looks to me like you can if you use one of the two models I ...
by DR
Tue Dec 15, 2015 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need some confidence to retire...
Replies: 18
Views: 2438

Re: I need some confidence to retire...

Your taxable income (i.e., after deductions and exemptions) would be $51K and then declining each year for a few years then level out around low 20K.
by DR
Tue Dec 15, 2015 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need some confidence to retire...
Replies: 18
Views: 2438

Re: I need some confidence to retire...

Dan, Thanks so much. I also have $135,000 in savings. My thought was to use my savings over the next 4 years ($30K per year) so that I can limit withdrawals from 401k (taxable income) and therefore qualify for better insurance rates via Affordable Care Act. Do think my expected rate of return on my...
by DR
Tue Dec 15, 2015 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need some confidence to retire...
Replies: 18
Views: 2438

Re: I need some confidence to retire...

By the way, one variation on the model I described above would be to withdraw $70K annually in today's dollars through age 69. The balance beginning at age 70 could be withdrawn each year to the tune of $23,496 (adjusted for inflation each year) from age 70-100. This approach would create a discreti...
by DR
Tue Dec 15, 2015 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need some confidence to retire...
Replies: 18
Views: 2438

Re: I need some confidence to retire...

I ran the numbers in ESPlanner calculator, and I concur with a few other posters above. I assumed you had no other source of income besides the 1M and the SS. I don't know what state you live in so I assumed AL state taxes. I threw in an amount for property tax and home insurance (total $4,600 per y...
by DR
Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Asset Allocation for the rest of your life
Replies: 60
Views: 7943

Re: VPW?

I was not familiar with this concept on that wikki page, but it looks like my model has been using something like this. That explains why I've never quite understood how the 4% rule worked since by using such a rule you could never spend down all your money--with respect to Zeno. The usual analysis...
by DR
Mon Nov 30, 2015 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Asset Allocation for the rest of your life
Replies: 60
Views: 7943

Re: VPW?

Bahama Man: What is VPW? Where can I "study" it? Thank you and best wishes. Taylor Taylor, Here is the Link https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Variable_percentage_withdrawal I was not familiar with this concept on that wikki page, but it looks like my model has been using something like this. That exp...
by DR
Wed Nov 18, 2015 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling Social Security Income
Replies: 12
Views: 1548

Re: Modeling Social Security Income

Yes, as others above say, http://esplanner.com the $149 does exactly what you are trying to model, including the 10% reduction, change in SS benefits, and it is fed and state tax aware. It's made to do that kind of sensitivity testing.
by DR
Sat Oct 24, 2015 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wool Carpet
Replies: 11
Views: 1122

Re: Wool Carpet

I have wool carpet in a family area and the English Setter has full access. With the old nylon carpet he would track mud etc. on occasion and would never really come out. The nylon carpet also matted in high traffic areas after a year or two. The wool carpet has been amazing. I've seen dog paw print...
by DR
Fri Oct 09, 2015 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you use for back testing?
Replies: 34
Views: 3894

Re: What do you use for back testing?

I didn't know the builder? of portfolio visualizer was a part of this forum.

I'd like to see a forum area just on using that tool. I suppose I'm off topic here, but I'd like to have some discussion about "optimization" and other features of PV.

Dan