Search found 145 matches

by DR
Tue Jan 03, 2017 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 245
Views: 28085

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

I'm 58 and plan on working through age 62. So if I remove 3.5 years of wages, remove my contributions and employer match, recalculate the SS earnings benefit because of the loss of earnings over the next 3.5 years . . . . I would need to wake up to a tax-free appearance of 350K in my checking accoun...
by DR
Sat Dec 10, 2016 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement planning implications for eventual death of spouse
Replies: 27
Views: 2246

Re: Retirement planning implications for eventual death of spouse

Use the ESPlanner calculator: it will take account of all those contingencies including tax change, SS change, pension change, etc and show you each survivor's living standard in any given year.
by DR
Fri Dec 09, 2016 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should you retire early or keep working?
Replies: 28
Views: 3833

Re: Should you retire early or keep working?

I think the article touches on two important points. First, the key consideration (and, for that matter, the key challenge) is freedom . I didn't retire early to retire early, as if doing so bestowed bragging rights or some sense of enhanced status. I did so because there's so many other things I w...
by DR
Fri Dec 09, 2016 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just too conservative for my own good
Replies: 30
Views: 4305

Re: Just too conservative for my own good

...Nearing retirement, we are currently invested around 45/55 stocks/bonds... Just as a way of seeing where you are compared to Morningstar's benchmarks for target-date funds, here's a chart. The three smooth curves are derived by the same kind of methodologies target-date funds use, and Morningsta...
by DR
Fri Dec 09, 2016 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just too conservative for my own good
Replies: 30
Views: 4305

Re: Just too conservative for my own good

I never understand this talk about being "too conservative" with asset allocation as if there's some absolute standard for AA. First of all, "conservative" or "aggressive" is not only relative to one's subjective risk aversion (and we are all different in this regard) b...
by DR
Sat Apr 16, 2016 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I know I have enough to retire
Replies: 17
Views: 4122

Re: How do I know I have enough to retire

You don't say how much longer on the mortgage and a few other things. But even just glancing at the numbers, others in that situation would say: "how are we ever going to scrape by on that amount?" and others would say, "how are we every going to spend all that money?" Just use F...
by DR
Thu Apr 14, 2016 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is this a SS filing no-brainer?
Replies: 11
Views: 1146

Re: Is this a SS filing no-brainer?

Just spend the $40 and put it in Maximize My Social Security and get the present value for both options and see which one is higher. To me, that's the no brainer. :)
by DR
Tue Feb 23, 2016 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: where to get 3% real with the least amount of risk?
Replies: 56
Views: 7076

Re: where to get 3% real with the least amount of risk?

Lotta reading comprehension probs here it seems. OP didn't ask for 3% real with NO risk. OP didn't ask for 3% real guaranteed. OP made a reasonable ask for "the best chance of returning 3% real with the least amount of risk". +1 That said, it seems that in these kinds of discussions--in t...
by DR
Tue Feb 23, 2016 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: where to get 3% real with the least amount of risk?
Replies: 56
Views: 7076

Re: where to get 3% real with the least amount of risk?

You can backtest some portfolios, but, for example, 100% in intermediate term bond fund like FBIDX (passive AGG index fund) returned 3.7% inflation adjusted return from 1991-present with a standard deviation of 3.56%. If you juice that up a bit with an S&P index fund like FUSEX and use 20% stock...
by DR
Mon Feb 22, 2016 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Late to Bogleheads but close to retiring...help please
Replies: 4
Views: 1299

Re: Late to Bogleheads but close to retiring...help please

Your plan, as per DR, is heavily dependent on when you decide to take SS. I would try to map out the next 5 years in terms of income, withdrawals and taxes to help you decide when to take SS. Below is a template I developed for a 5 year plan. You will have to modify it, but it is a decent starting ...
by DR
Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Late to Bogleheads but close to retiring...help please
Replies: 4
Views: 1299

Re: Late to Bogleheads but close to retiring...help please

In my comments below I'm not really answering the asset allocation question like you asked, but indirectly maybe I am. That is, I'm showing what your living standard or discretionary spending would be (in today's dollars) assuming that your average nominal return on the taxable assets in 3% and the ...
by DR
Fri Jan 29, 2016 11:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Not using HSA money
Replies: 8
Views: 1158

Re: Not using HSA money

Yes, this is OK. If you keep your receipts, you can withdraw HSA funds against receipts at any time even years later . While more onerous, this is the most tax advantageous way to use an HSA. I keep my receipts and hope to withdraw funds triple-tax preferred in 40 years on my deathbed. And you can ...
by DR
Thu Jan 28, 2016 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Most efficient way to improve my writing ability?
Replies: 56
Views: 3472

Re: Most efficient way to improve my writing ability?

I teach writing at the university. That's generally good advice above in my view. In particular, I believe that a daily journal can help a lot. I also think that imitation is underrated. (see the sections in Ben Franklin's autobiography where he describes improving his writing). Find samples of writ...
by DR
Tue Dec 29, 2015 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your 2 retirement numbers?
Replies: 260
Views: 30495

Re: What are your 2 retirement numbers?

About 450K denominated in 2016 dollars. (assuming inflation of 3% and nominal returns of 5.5%).
by DR
Tue Dec 29, 2015 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much inflation in the US per year?
Replies: 56
Views: 4899

Re: How much inflation in the US per year?

An interesting discussion, but now I have a question. Let us suppose that an ISP looking forward for 20 years assumes a 4% inflation rate as a model assumption. But inflation comes in over that 20 period at 2.5%-3%. How does that affect returns? In other words, if one assumes a 7% 'net' return (acc...
by DR
Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we call it "investing"?
Replies: 35
Views: 3814

Re: Why do we call it "investing"?

Investments, Bodie, Kane & Marcus, 7th edition, page 1, first sentence: An investment is the current commitment of money or other resources in the expectation of reaping future benefits. Just like the dictionary. For a guy who seems to appreciate the work of Thornton Wilder or O. Henry, you see...
by DR
Sat Dec 26, 2015 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Investing Advice
Replies: 15
Views: 2383

Re: Retirement Investing Advice

I created a model where you work through age 66 and retire at age 67. Both models assume you both make 75K through age 66 and get a COLA adjustment each year. You both start a ROTH and contribute 2,400 each to it through age 66. Assuming current Federal tax rates and state taxes like say Michigan. I...
by DR
Sat Dec 26, 2015 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we call it "investing"?
Replies: 35
Views: 3814

Re: Why do we call it "investing"?

I agree with Roche that what most of us are doing is allocating savings, not investing. I believe investing viewed as "spending for future production" is more technically correct. In the case of mutual funds, we're just trading shares with one another. Spending money on college is an inves...
by DR
Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to clean a Karastan rug
Replies: 17
Views: 1768

Re: How to clean a Karastan rug

I have lots of new and antique wool rugs. I just wash them with the garden hose and let them hang over the rail on the deck to try. But it's getting cold out there now! Maybe wait til spring.
by DR
Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: can i reasonably expect to retire at 62...
Replies: 36
Views: 5268

Re: can i reasonably expect to retire at 62...

FWIW: I used to do much more detailed estimates, even writing code not unlike ESPLanner, but in the end sensitivity studies led me to realize that with all the assumptions I was just generating false precision. You are right. Indeed, as Whitehead said, "the exactness is a fake." I still l...
by DR
Tue Dec 22, 2015 7:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: can i reasonably expect to retire at 62...
Replies: 36
Views: 5268

Re: can i reasonably expect to retire at 62...

I describing taxes denominated in today's dollars. Take age 70 for example. In my model he has $29,692 in SS, 24,740 in taxable qualified withdrawals. His Total Income in the year 2027 is thus 54,432. In FL he'd pay no state tax, but in AL, he'd pay $811 in state tax and $3,876 in Federal tax using ...
by DR
Mon Dec 21, 2015 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: can i reasonably expect to retire at 62...
Replies: 36
Views: 5268

Re: can i reasonably expect to retire at 62...

If Ballpark $40K, where it may be 10% or 20% lower is enough you are good to go. If $40K is on the rough edge of enough, then your retirement is on the rough edge. The good news is even a part time job bringing in several thousand dollars a year would provide some margin. That's good Rodc. I wasn't...
by DR
Mon Dec 21, 2015 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: can i reasonably expect to retire at 62...
Replies: 36
Views: 5268

Re: can i reasonably expect to retire at 62...

I think that at this point you are too focused on your asset allocation without having the macro picture. AA is of course important, and there's probably some very good advice given above. But the first thing I would suggest doing is getting a macro picture of your economy across the years from the ...
by DR
Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Math to include large fixed pension/annuity in retirement planning.
Replies: 19
Views: 2425

Re: Math to include large fixed pension/annuity in retirement planning.

I was curious how this stream of payments would look to someone who was currently, say, 56 years old and began taking the receipts in the year 2020 (at age 60) through age 100 beginning with 100K in today's dollars. I just used ESPlanner to calculate this stream of income. By the way, you could make...
by DR
Tue Dec 15, 2015 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need some confidence to retire...
Replies: 18
Views: 2165

Re: I need some confidence to retire...

Your SS amount at 70 will be $44,272 in today's dollars (annually of course). The wife's would be $16,770 (as you say 50% of yours at FRA). Is this fairly accurate? If so I am not sure what you are worried about. I agree. The OP did not give me his actual earnings history, so I just put 200K per ye...
by DR
Tue Dec 15, 2015 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need some confidence to retire...
Replies: 18
Views: 2165

Re: I need some confidence to retire...

I could probably add $75,000 to $100,000 if I worked another year. My employer has asked me to continue as a "1099 consultant" for an undetermined amount of time. I am willingto do this for 6 months or so...but I really want to retire. It looks to me like you can if you use one of the two...
by DR
Tue Dec 15, 2015 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need some confidence to retire...
Replies: 18
Views: 2165

Re: I need some confidence to retire...

Your taxable income (i.e., after deductions and exemptions) would be $51K and then declining each year for a few years then level out around low 20K.
by DR
Tue Dec 15, 2015 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need some confidence to retire...
Replies: 18
Views: 2165

Re: I need some confidence to retire...

Dan, Thanks so much. I also have $135,000 in savings. My thought was to use my savings over the next 4 years ($30K per year) so that I can limit withdrawals from 401k (taxable income) and therefore qualify for better insurance rates via Affordable Care Act. Do think my expected rate of return on my...
by DR
Tue Dec 15, 2015 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need some confidence to retire...
Replies: 18
Views: 2165

Re: I need some confidence to retire...

By the way, one variation on the model I described above would be to withdraw $70K annually in today's dollars through age 69. The balance beginning at age 70 could be withdrawn each year to the tune of $23,496 (adjusted for inflation each year) from age 70-100. This approach would create a discreti...
by DR
Tue Dec 15, 2015 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need some confidence to retire...
Replies: 18
Views: 2165

Re: I need some confidence to retire...

I ran the numbers in ESPlanner calculator, and I concur with a few other posters above. I assumed you had no other source of income besides the 1M and the SS. I don't know what state you live in so I assumed AL state taxes. I threw in an amount for property tax and home insurance (total $4,600 per y...
by DR
Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Asset Allocation for the rest of your life
Replies: 60
Views: 7395

Re: VPW?

I was not familiar with this concept on that wikki page, but it looks like my model has been using something like this. That explains why I've never quite understood how the 4% rule worked since by using such a rule you could never spend down all your money--with respect to Zeno. The usual analysis...
by DR
Mon Nov 30, 2015 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Asset Allocation for the rest of your life
Replies: 60
Views: 7395

Re: VPW?

Bahama Man: What is VPW? Where can I "study" it? Thank you and best wishes. Taylor Taylor, Here is the Link https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Variable_percentage_withdrawal I was not familiar with this concept on that wikki page, but it looks like my model has been using something like this...
by DR
Wed Nov 18, 2015 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling Social Security Income
Replies: 12
Views: 1382

Re: Modeling Social Security Income

Yes, as others above say, http://esplanner.com the $149 does exactly what you are trying to model, including the 10% reduction, change in SS benefits, and it is fed and state tax aware. It's made to do that kind of sensitivity testing.
by DR
Sat Oct 24, 2015 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wool Carpet
Replies: 11
Views: 979

Re: Wool Carpet

I have wool carpet in a family area and the English Setter has full access. With the old nylon carpet he would track mud etc. on occasion and would never really come out. The nylon carpet also matted in high traffic areas after a year or two. The wool carpet has been amazing. I've seen dog paw print...
by DR
Fri Oct 09, 2015 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you use for back testing?
Replies: 34
Views: 3464

Re: What do you use for back testing?

I didn't know the builder? of portfolio visualizer was a part of this forum.

I'd like to see a forum area just on using that tool. I suppose I'm off topic here, but I'd like to have some discussion about "optimization" and other features of PV.

Dan
by DR
Thu Oct 08, 2015 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment portfolio optimization
Replies: 76
Views: 14529

Re: Betterment portfolio optimization

A bit of an old thread here . . . but thought this analysis by Cullen Roche would be interesting to people looking at these Robo services.

http://www.pragcap.com/should-you-use-a ... t-service/
by DR
Sun Oct 04, 2015 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation Help for 401K
Replies: 16
Views: 1182

Re: Asset allocation Help for 401K

…in other words, we end up with the "optimal" portfolio at 96% U.S. stocks! The second option is 100% U.S. stocks. No surprise. When the recent past showed that bonds had beaten stocks over the prior 40 year period, can you guess what portfolio would have resulted by using Portfolio Visua...
by DR
Sat Oct 03, 2015 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation Help for 401K
Replies: 16
Views: 1182

Re: Asset allocation Help for 401K

I was also going to say, but forgot, that the question as you pose it can't really be answered. You ask: what's the best allocation? But you don't give any parameters? Do you mean the best allocation for the lowest risk? Or do you mean the best allocation for the highest return regardless of risk? O...
by DR
Sat Oct 03, 2015 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation Help for 401K
Replies: 16
Views: 1182

Re: Asset allocation Help for 401K

I've been playing with the new option in Portfolio Visualizer http://portfoliovisualizer.com It's a tool that allows you to optimize a portfolio in a way that either "minimize risk subject to a return of X" or "maximize return subject to a risk of X" So I entered your portfolio a...
by DR
Sat Oct 03, 2015 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pseudo Finished Basement Heating
Replies: 23
Views: 1639

Re: Pseudo Finished Basement Heating

Yes, and maybe the amount of water it puts out will compensate for the dryer air. But it definitely creates moisture in the air.
by DR
Sat Oct 03, 2015 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Space heaters
Replies: 25
Views: 2327

Re: Space heaters

There was another thread running on this topic over the last few days:

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=174921
by DR
Sat Oct 03, 2015 6:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pseudo Finished Basement Heating
Replies: 23
Views: 1639

Re: Pseudo Finished Basement Heating

I have one like this; different color but same kind of design. http://www.lowes.com/pd_149370-61993-MD300TGA_0__?productId=3642918 The 30,000 BTU is more than enough for my full basement. I can blow everyone out with heat down there if I left it turned on high. The "thermostat" on the top ...
by DR
Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pseudo Finished Basement Heating
Replies: 23
Views: 1639

Re: Pseudo Finished Basement Heating

I live in Grand Rapids. I use a ventless gas heater that mounts on the wall in an inconspicuous spot close to a natural gas pipe that I hooked it up to. It works great. It's got an adjustable thermostat on it so you can have it kick on/off at different temps. It takes a little trial and error to ge...
by DR
Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Post-Divorce Retirement Planning?
Replies: 34
Views: 2624

Re: Post-Divorce Retirement Planning?

The problem with trying to use a static 4% withdraw on the 1M is that it would create a "tail wagging the dog" model. In other words, , your lifetime discretionary spending is going to get whipsawed, especially in the near term. Think about it: you have alimony receipts of $144K declining...
by DR
Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Post-Divorce Retirement Planning?
Replies: 34
Views: 2624

Re:

Well, DR, this is terrific! Your assumptions are dead-on (e.g.,annual alimony is a fixed amount). In this one post, you have given me more relevant information than I received from the three different investment/financial advisors I consulted during my divorce negotiations. Lots of reasons for that...
by DR
Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Post-Divorce Retirement Planning?
Replies: 34
Views: 2624

Re: Post-Divorce Retirement Planning?

The problem with trying to use a static 4% withdraw on the 1M is that it would create a "tail wagging the dog" model. In other words, if you just put withdraw from both regular assets (the $400K) on auto pilot, your lifetime discretionary spending is going to get whipsawed, especially in t...
by DR
Fri Oct 02, 2015 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Post-Divorce Retirement Planning?
Replies: 34
Views: 2624

Re: Post-Divorce Retirement Planning?

My big question -- as is everyone's -- how much $$ do I need to have in order not to run out? As someone else said or suggested above, this is kind of a backward way to look at it. The question is not about how much $$ you need, but rather, well, I'd put it like this: Given how much I have, what is...
by DR
Fri Oct 02, 2015 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pseudo Finished Basement Heating
Replies: 23
Views: 1639

Re: Pseudo Finished Basement Heating

I live in Grand Rapids. I use a ventless gas heater that mounts on the wall in an inconspicuous spot close to a natural gas pipe that I hooked it up to. It works great. It's got an adjustable thermostat on it so you can have it kick on/off at different temps. It takes a little trial and error to get...
by DR
Mon Sep 21, 2015 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Confession time.....no stocks
Replies: 60
Views: 6764

Re: Confession time.....no stocks

At age 63 you should be careful about what you do. If you have done the math as best you can and think you can get through OK with no stocks, then I don't think it is necessarily such a terrible thing to have no stocks, and you need to be fairly careful about getting back in--how much and how quick...
by DR
Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reframing-the-social-security-decision"
Replies: 63
Views: 5483

Re: Reframing-the-social-security-decision"

Another fun way or interesting way to look at the "Kate scenario" laid out by Allen Roth is to look at her choices from the point of view of consumption smoothing (lifetime discretionary spending pattern in today's dollars). To do this you have to make up a bit of a fuller background for &...

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