Search found 1640 matches

by Clive
Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein's "If You Can" Portfolio
Replies: 37
Views: 4498

Re: William Bernstein's "If You Can" Portfolio

Isn't this a bit conservative for most young people?

That's a suggestion for a simple constant weighted portfolio for millennials. Third in each, rebalance yearly .... repeatedly throughout all ages.
by Clive
Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your average return?
Replies: 17
Views: 1926

Re: What is your average return?

1 year -2.1%
3 year 3.6%
5 year 2.3%
7 year 7.4%
10 year 6.7%
15 year 9.5%

Annualised real to end of 2015
by Clive
Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Reliability Studies
Replies: 14
Views: 1148

Re: Dividend Reliability Studies

Trends aren't popular but if you follow the trend.... Growth stocks all sizes gain more in bull markets, value stocks gain more in long term studies... Dividends or growth ? That wasn't really the question. I'd prefer dividends, I'm tired of all this volatility. Kenneth French's long term data indi...
by Clive
Fri Feb 05, 2016 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: French-Fama 2x3, 10x10, mid-caps... Help?
Replies: 27
Views: 2610

Re: French-Fama 2x3, 10x10, mid-caps... Help?

Actually, I don't see the number of firms for each category in the data files. I checked "6_Portfolios_2x3", "25_Portfolios_5x5", "Portfolios_Formed_on_ME", "Portfolios_Formed_on_E-P", and no such information The number of firms wouldn't be in the multi-files...
by Clive
Tue Feb 02, 2016 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: French-Fama 2x3, 10x10, mid-caps... Help?
Replies: 27
Views: 2610

Re: French-Fama 2x3, 10x10, mid-caps... Help?

It seems that your point is that a given firm could be classified in a given category (say SB) when the portfolio is formed in June, then it could potentially be classified in another category (say SV) later in the year due to financial changes (decline?), but FF will still count it as SB for the 1...
by Clive
Tue Feb 02, 2016 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: French-Fama 2x3, 10x10, mid-caps... Help?
Replies: 27
Views: 2610

Re: French-Fama 2x3, 10x10, mid-caps... Help?

One issue I have with K French's data is that most "portfolio's" are formed once/year (June or July IIRC), and monthly changes recorded, together with number of firms. Some portfolio's have a higher/faster rate of decline in the number of firms than others. So to some extent there's a degr...
by Clive
Thu Jan 28, 2016 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 122
Views: 8963

Re: Rebalancing, another study

"Always be rebalancing" and "embrace the drift" can't both be right. Yes they can. Our own studies across 80+ years of (UK) history indicates comparable general returns whether you rebalance or not. Data mining (with hindsight) you can identify the more optimal rebalance trigger...
by Clive
Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts On Motley Fool/BERKSHIRE
Replies: 11
Views: 1430

Re: Thoughts On Motley Fool

Jokers - esp the UK crew
by Clive
Fri Jan 15, 2016 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How common is this [Have more money 10+ years into retirement]
Replies: 72
Views: 8827

Re: How common is this [Have more money 10+ years into retirement]

I know quite a few retirees that are 10 years or more into retirement and even with distributions, have more money in their account then when they retired. How many find themselves in this situation. Also would you care to share your asset allocation in retirement. It will depend upon the relative ...
by Clive
Fri Jan 15, 2016 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Much better approach than traditional AA ratios if you have enough?
Replies: 39
Views: 3868

Re: Much better approach than traditional AA ratios if you have enough?

This is basically a liability matching strategy and is often discussed. Some people like it. It makes a fair amount of sense. FWIW this is not the bucket approach. It's the method I use .. and I'd been calling it a bucket style, oft with negative comments about such. Name change to Liability Matchi...
by Clive
Thu Jan 14, 2016 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: Follow these 4 Investing Rules
Replies: 14
Views: 3732

Re: Jack Bogle: Follow these 4 Investing Rules

If Jack doesn't rebalance, then weightings would deviate over time. Cash interest + dividends versus share price gains. ???
by Clive
Sun Jan 10, 2016 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New investor questions (UK, London)
Replies: 34
Views: 1664

Re: New investor questions (UK, London)

As a UK investor if I hold a US stock I have to pay 15% US dividend withholding tax. If I hold a stock that earns/trades globally, but has opted to list on the London Stock Exchange then there's no withholding tax. A problem is that when it comes to funds/indexes, more often they're tilted. The FT10...
by Clive
Sun Jan 10, 2016 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500
Replies: 125
Views: 12946

Re: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500

Invert - worst first four opening days in history - for sellers to - best first four opening days in history - for buyers - and the perpective doesn't ring China's market dropping 30% - after having risen 70% is just a continuation of their wild volatility. Do you become depressed if prices are che...
by Clive
Sun Jan 10, 2016 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market
Replies: 38
Views: 2450

Re: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market

I think you're having the wrong argument. The argument you're having is the investment returns of a single individual real estate investment (your parents home) against the broad market returns. A more proper argument would be a single individual real estate investment vs a single individual stock ...
by Clive
Fri Jan 08, 2016 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500
Replies: 125
Views: 12946

Re: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500

Remember that battles are won in the planning stages, not on the field itself ??? - Battles are won via the control of (mis)information. Misinformation leads to poorer planning decisions. Of course being misinformed and drinking up misinformation will lead to poor planning--I don't disagree--but I ...
by Clive
Fri Jan 08, 2016 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market
Replies: 38
Views: 2450

Re: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market

According to http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices/table/by-month price only S&P500 change produced a 7.59% annualised. House price change amounts to 7.19% annualised. Starting rental yield was around 5% (seems low to me ...), end date rental yield around 1.5% (also seems a bit low), s...
by Clive
Fri Jan 08, 2016 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500
Replies: 125
Views: 12946

Re: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500

They start to catastrophize as I explained in my blog on "Investment depression." http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-avoid-investment-depression Good article. I like this quote: Remember that battles are won in the planning stages, not on the field itself. An intell...
by Clive
Fri Jan 08, 2016 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500
Replies: 125
Views: 12946

Re: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500

Looking at my spreadsheet, it really sucks to see international and Canada lower than when I first bought the funds in 2012. It's easy to see why people drop out after periods of flat/poor performance. A big part of Canada is the currency. The other thing is the oil/ commodity price crash (40% of s...
by Clive
Thu Jan 07, 2016 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about individual stocks versus index fund?
Replies: 29
Views: 1233

Re: Question about individual stocks versus index fund?

I'm a bit new to investing, and I have this question: What's the point of buying a total market index fund if I can buy all the individual stocks and create my own collective index fund? Is it about the price where an index fund is cheaper overall versus buying individual stocks? Is it convenience?...
by Clive
Thu Jan 07, 2016 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500
Replies: 125
Views: 12946

Re: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500

Invert - worst first four opening days in history - for sellers to - best first four opening days in history - for buyers - and the perpective doesn't ring China's market dropping 30% - after having risen 70% is just a continuation of their wild volatility. Do you become depressed if prices are chea...
by Clive
Tue Jan 05, 2016 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Smoke, mirrors and the true cost of investing"
Replies: 2
Views: 829

Re: "Smoke, mirrors and the true cost of investing"

...high costs of investing—all those commissions, management fees, investment expenses, yes, even taxes ... and inflation . There's also the tendency for historic rewards to be overstated. "The Dow has provided x% since yyyy" when the Dow Industrial Average used as that "guide" ...
by Clive
Sat Jan 02, 2016 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it Possible for the Stock Market Trend to Change
Replies: 18
Views: 1117

Re: Is it Possible for the Stock Market Trend to Change

...If you'd been invested in Japan in 1990, your investments would've done horribly ... But if you'd been in Japanese value stocks, you'd barely have noticed the broad markets in perpetual free-fall at all In the UK, our major stock index has done pretty abysmally since 2000 - you could have done b...
by Clive
Sat Jan 02, 2016 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it Possible for the Stock Market Trend to Change
Replies: 18
Views: 1117

Re: Is it Possible for the Stock Market Trend to Change

My concern is however, everyone says that the stock market will always increase. Because 'everyone' measures incorrectly! Gross nominal. Measure more correctly - net real - after costs, taxes and inflation, and stock's aren't a one way street. One of the Bogle concepts is to keep costs low, and inf...
by Clive
Wed Dec 30, 2015 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stocks vs. Bonds & Stocks?
Replies: 51
Views: 3859

Re: 100% Stocks vs. Bonds & Stocks?

I think when you think about risk, that a bit of bonds can offer a good balance of returns and risk. Here is a back test of a 100, a 90/10, and a 60/40. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation#analysisResults Your link doesn't work. Here's one for 80/20 https://www.portf...
by Clive
Wed Dec 30, 2015 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much inflation in the US per year?
Replies: 56
Views: 3919

Re: How much inflation in the US per year?

Depends, healthcare and education cost inflation has exceeded 3 percent per year, computer chips have declined in cost. We save/invest money we don't need to spend today, in order to spend that money at a later date. Depending upon what that money is ultimately to be spent on is the guide inflation...
by Clive
Sat Dec 26, 2015 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could you sleep with all your money in Berkshire Hathaway?
Replies: 66
Views: 8016

Re: Could you sleep with all your money in Berkshire Hathaway?

After doing some online searches, I am unable to find any index funds which have a twin structure: no dividends married with dividend paying. It would seem to be an excellent choice for an older investor who wished to put all the dividend paying stocks into a tax advantaged account and pure growth ...
by Clive
Sat Dec 26, 2015 4:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we call it "investing"?
Replies: 35
Views: 3167

Re: Why do we call it "investing"?

Why do we call it "investing"? Sourced from the Latin investire - to clothe. Investing is the process of wrapping your capital in a different form. So shouldn't the term "investing" be applied only to the funds in the primary market and funds in the secondary and other markets b...
by Clive
Fri Dec 25, 2015 5:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could you sleep with all your money in Berkshire Hathaway?
Replies: 66
Views: 8016

Re: Could you sleep with all your money in Berkshire Hathawa

Isn't there a significant amount of tax risk in BRK, something like 25% of its book value being deferred taxes, the company lodging 14,000 pages of tax filings each year, and a number of long standing legal battles with the tax-man. The risk of that coming to a head after Buffett's demise would be ...
by Clive
Thu Dec 24, 2015 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why invest in stocks?
Replies: 33
Views: 3014

Re: why invest in stocks?

I sometimes question even the mathematical possibility of losing money in stocks in the long run. Under what scenario could that happen? Historically each of gold, share prices only (excluding dividends) and house prices (excluding imputed rent) have outpaced inflation by around 2%. In effect techn...
by Clive
Mon Dec 21, 2015 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Derivatives to hedge currency risk
Replies: 21
Views: 949

Re: Derivatives to hedge currency risk

The lowest cost hedge is via diversification. Collectively multiple currencies will tend to balance. The exception being if your domestic currency crashes in isolation. However have a think about how CISCO listed on the Mexican SE will mimick CISCO listed in the US after accounting for FX drift/diff...
by Clive
Tue Dec 15, 2015 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Permanent Bogleheads Portfolio
Replies: 33
Views: 4006

Re: Permanent Bogleheads Portfolio

If you have several assets that each broadly pace inflation, but individually some doing so in a volatile manner, others in a much less volatile manner (beta), then generally its better to hold some of each and periodically rebalance than it is to hold any one alone. Interim volatility is just noise...
by Clive
Tue Dec 15, 2015 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC warning on leveraged ETF [Proposed rule]
Replies: 3
Views: 508

Re: SEC warning on leveraged ETF

What's risker, 50/50 SSO (2x long stock) and SHY (STT) or 100% long stock ? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&endDate=12%2F14%2F2015&allocation2_1=50&lastMonth=12&symbol1=SSO&endYear=2015&symbol3=SPY&frequency=4&symbol2=SHY&inflationAdjust...
by Clive
Mon Dec 14, 2015 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Permanent Bogleheads Portfolio
Replies: 33
Views: 4006

Re: Permanent Bogleheads Portfolio

The folks at the Permanent Portfolio forum have come up with an even more conservative version, named the Desert portfolio: 30% stocks 60% IT treasuries 10% gold I would modify this even further to: 30% stocks (total world) 65% ST/IT treasuries 5 % gold Why would you lend near two thirds to someone...
by Clive
Mon Dec 14, 2015 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns
Replies: 61
Views: 3903

Re: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns

In other words, we could model a bond fund that worked like a bond ladder, except that it sold its bonds one year prior to maturity, like real-life bond funds do. Is there any evidence that selling a year prior to maturity (and incurring trading costs) is better than holding to maturity (avoiding t...
by Clive
Tue Dec 08, 2015 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Equities Overpriced?
Replies: 58
Views: 5022

Re: Are Equities Overpriced?

Hi Maynard. From a UK perspective, taken with a cup of salt, on a better-than-nowt basis, a 'balanced' portfolio relative to global stock, bond, property and gold 2014 proportions, reflected back to 1932 and adjusted for (first chart) consumer price inflation (UK RPI) and (second chart) house price ...
by Clive
Fri Dec 04, 2015 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historically, was gold's "value" simply that it was a convenient, yet hard to counterfeit symbol?
Replies: 70
Views: 3570

Re: Historically, was gold's "value" simply that it was a convenient, yet hard to counterfeit symbol?

Paper money is very vulnerable to inflation and devaluation, as Mr. Buffet noted in his letter, but he also says that the only reason gold has any value is because people believe that it will be more derireable in the future: Owners are not inspired by what the asset itself can produce — it will re...
by Clive
Sun Nov 29, 2015 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographics the ERP and the risk free rate [Equity Risk Premium]
Replies: 31
Views: 1790

Re: Demographics the ERP and the risk free rate [Equity Risk Premium]

I agree expected returns are not what they were in the 1970s but the ERP is pretty close according to Damodaran's data. The reason expected returns are down is due to interest rates not the ERP. One way to view the ERP is an indicator of how expensive versus bonds. ERP 0%, common 'risk-free' (treas...
by Clive
Sat Nov 14, 2015 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where expected returns are highest, and should you go there
Replies: 75
Views: 6933

Re: Where expected returns are highest, and should you go there

Expected stock returns are not guaranteed returns. As much as possible, one also needs to consider risk, which is not defined to be the standard deviation of returns. Expected and actual are vastly different. Expectations are more often based on biased historic reference. Factor is survivorship, in...
by Clive
Fri Nov 06, 2015 4:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on Dip/Sell on Rise
Replies: 87
Views: 5310

Re: Buy on Dip/Sell on Rise

Here is what is prudent: Lower expenses and use the savings to invest more in order to deal with the shortfall. Sage advice. Put into perspective of the impact of minimising costs/taxes - since 1928 the Dow arithmetic averaged close to 11%, discount volatility and the geometric (annualised) came in...
by Clive
Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on Dip/Sell on Rise
Replies: 87
Views: 5310

Re: Buy on Dip/Sell on Rise

Identify one consistent choice that yields better than 50/50 odds and that will be arbitraged out very quickly. I don't think many folks would invest in the stock market if there was only 50/50 odds of it going up. Work out the historic net real rewards from stocks and you'd be surprised at how man...
by Clive
Thu Nov 05, 2015 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on Dip/Sell on Rise
Replies: 87
Views: 5310

Re: Buy on Dip/Sell on Rise

... the odds are as good as 50/50 of the next tick being either up or down. Repeating what you wrote does not make it factual. Identify one consistent choice that yields better than 50/50 odds and that will be arbitraged out very quickly. There are millions of computers and minds involved, the pros...
by Clive
Thu Nov 05, 2015 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on Dip/Sell on Rise
Replies: 87
Views: 5310

Re: Buy on Dip/Sell on Rise

In the case of timing when to rebalance, all you're really doing is improving your odds slightly above chance Luck! If after rebalancing the prior trend continues it would have been better to not have rebalanced. If the trend reverses then it was good to have rebalanced. The prospects of either are...
by Clive
Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on Dip/Sell on Rise
Replies: 87
Views: 5310

Re: Buy on Dip/Sell on Rise

In the case of timing when to rebalance, all you're really doing is improving your odds slightly above chance Luck! If after rebalancing the prior trend continues it would have been better to not have rebalanced. If the trend reverses then it was good to have rebalanced. The prospects of either are...
by Clive
Tue Oct 27, 2015 4:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crazy Lazy Portfolio - TSM/REIT/SCV
Replies: 66
Views: 4680

Re: Crazy Lazy Portfolio - TSM/REIT/SCV

I don’t care to belong to any club that will have me as a member : Groucho Marx Public listed stocks are a means for the former owners to raise capital or reduce their own risk. If a business/firm was clearly good then the owners would be less inclined to share/more inclined to have more concentrat...
by Clive
Sun Oct 25, 2015 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogle: Tough Decade Ahead for Equity Investors"
Replies: 135
Views: 14211

Re: "Bogle: Tough Decade Ahead for Equity Investors"

Discount inflation, costs and taxes and that 9.1% historic if applied across 1950 to 2003 could have been 1.8% net real for a 'average' stock investor. Both dividends and capital gains were taxed more heavily in the past, management/brokers and market makers fees/spreads were also higher/wider. Appl...
by Clive
Fri Oct 23, 2015 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogle: Tough Decade Ahead for Equity Investors"
Replies: 135
Views: 14211

Re: "Bogle: Tough Decade Ahead for Equity Investors"

As I've noted in other threads, as a retiree, I can live easily with the "terrible twos"" (2% growth, 2% dividends, 2% inflation, 2% CDs). At this point in my life, I am looking for return "of" my investments more than return "on" my investments. Our IRA CDs shoul...
by Clive
Fri Oct 23, 2015 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogle: Tough Decade Ahead for Equity Investors"
Replies: 135
Views: 14211

Re: "Bogle: Tough Decade Ahead for Equity Investors"

^^ Higher interest rates are good for investors, because most of the return from bonds is the interest (or if in a fund, dividends). There's a NAV decline to begin with, which over time is more than made up for by the increased payouts. PJW I'm not sure they are. Higher interest rates often come wi...
by Clive
Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogle: Tough Decade Ahead for Equity Investors"
Replies: 135
Views: 14211

Re: "Bogle: Tough Decade Ahead for Equity Investors"

If you consider stocks as a variable coupon bond then the recent earnings yield (inverse of PE) on the S&P500 is around 4% (PE 25 give or take). Which compared to 2% recent yield on 10 year Treasury bonds implies a risk-premium (default risk factor) of 2%. Since 1871 the premium averaged 2.8%, t...
by Clive
Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 183
Views: 18853

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

You have kept me from making a costly mistake, learning_head. Thank you very much. Stocks are over-rated. Other assets can be just as 'productive'. For one often the net real stock total gains are ignored. Deduct cost and taxes and adjust for inflation and historically stocks were a lot less produc...
by Clive
Thu Oct 22, 2015 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Risk/Return for 3 fund portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 2414

Re: Expected Risk/Return for 3 fund portfolio?

^^^ For all those suggesting that the OP and others should look to historical asset returns as a guide to future expected returns, a strong word of caution. At today's very high valuations for both stocks and bonds, it's quite unlikely that future returns will be close to historical averages. But o...

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