Search found 1860 matches

by Clive
Fri Dec 02, 2016 4:25 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: posting a too tall picture
Replies: 6
Views: 554

Re: posting a too tall picture

(Maybe ??) create a smaller thumbnail version that can be displayed, and set that as being a clickable link to the full sized image. Something like

Code: Select all

[url=http://somewhere.somebigimage.png][img]http://somewhere.thumbnail.png[/img][/url]
by Clive
Thu Dec 01, 2016 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global bonds suffer worst monthly meltdown, cause for concern?
Replies: 27
Views: 3403

Re: Global bonds suffer worst monthly meltdown, cause for concern?

there are hints global central banks may be buying fewer sovereign securities going forward Hmm! Around a third of Treasury debts are held by central banks or other government bodies. In the UK for instance the Bank of England printed money to buy up older higher cost (yield) Gilts (treasury bonds)...
by Clive
Tue Nov 29, 2016 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your personal rate of inflation?
Replies: 35
Views: 3171

Re: What is your personal rate of inflation?

Congratulations for having the foresight to consider that everyone's personal inflation rate differs. Some investors just look at gross nominal values, which are pretty meaningless without also knowing the purchase power variations (inflation rate). Others do consider inflation, but look solely at a...
by Clive
Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 9080

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Panel B chart within “The Enduring Effect of Time-Series Momentum on Stock Returns Over Nearly 100 Years,” paper indicates some horrendous drawdowns for CS momentum whilst TS was relatively stable. TS had a good run up during the 1920's pushing it relatively ahead, and it more or less held onto that...
by Clive
Mon Nov 21, 2016 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Investor Questionnaire recommends 100% stocks!
Replies: 56
Views: 4750

Re: Vanguard Investor Questionnaire recommends 100% stocks!

Bonds help smooth shorter term volatility. Longer term and if you're tolerant of shorter term volatility then stocks tend to yield the higher reward. The answers in the original post indicate such long term horizon volatility tolerant investment characteristics. http://i60.tinypic.com/309u991.png If...
by Clive
Sun Nov 20, 2016 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Glide path for 100% Equity Portfolio
Replies: 17
Views: 2298

Re: Glide path for 100% Equity Portfolio

Below is a true life story about what happened to Taylor Larimore (one of the founders of this forum). I printed this out and keep it close to protect me from myself. As you get holder, it might be something you want to look at from time to time. Thankfully Taylor shared it, so we don't have to exp...
by Clive
Sun Nov 20, 2016 5:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Glide path for 100% Equity Portfolio
Replies: 17
Views: 2298

Re: Glide path for 100% Equity Portfolio

Enough in bonds to cover 10 years of withdrawals/spending. So if 2% withdrawals 20%, 3% withdrawals 30% ...etc. Don't leave it to the day you retire to buy such bonds and instead average in over the 10 years or so beforehand (or maybe buy all of bonds when you're ten years away from retirement). Als...
by Clive
Sat Nov 19, 2016 5:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Viewing BRK.B as a Means to Hold "Tax-Deferred" Equity in Taxable Account
Replies: 23
Views: 2044

Re: Viewing BRK.B as a Means to Hold "Tax-Deferred" Equity in Taxable Account

Buffett's advice to the trustees of his inheritance is to avoid BRK shares other than what is weighted into the S&P500. He has also said that his BRK shares will be left to charities. Looks to me that subsequent to his demise there will be less pressure for BRK to not pay dividends (greater supp...
by Clive
Fri Nov 18, 2016 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bit of gold?
Replies: 51
Views: 3773

Re: A bit of gold?

1981-2015 shows gold actually lowering risk-adjusted returns. An investor would have been strictly better off with a simpler portfolio of stocks and bonds Hindsight is a wonderful thing, I look forward to having some tomorrow :) Look at Small Cap Value (SCV) and if you allocate around two thirds to...
by Clive
Fri Nov 18, 2016 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bit of gold?
Replies: 51
Views: 3773

Re: A bit of gold?

we may discover there's 10,000,000 tonnes of gold ore on one of the moons of Saturn that is easily mineable A proxy is perhaps the 16th century Spain, during which time Spain imported massive amounts of gold from South America, flooding the European market and drove the price down in 2010 inflation...
by Clive
Mon Nov 14, 2016 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Permanent Portfolio as an accumulation portfolio
Replies: 67
Views: 8114

Re: The Permanent Portfolio as an accumulation portfolio

Why do you want to buy inflation insurance in TIPS from the same people that have caused the inflation and are telling you what the inflation numbers are? You can do that if you'd like, but I'm not. But the PP suggests that lending 50% of total asset value (STT/LTT barbell) to the state who control...
by Clive
Sun Nov 13, 2016 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 516
Views: 121497

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

It's a portfolio that guarantees mediocrity. And as the past few days have shown it doesn't even offer much stability for all of the gains you are sacrificing. I believe that two of the past four years have had negative returns as the Boglehead portfolio has climbed. Indeed. A stock/gold barbell is...
by Clive
Thu Nov 10, 2016 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barbell strategies?
Replies: 14
Views: 1861

Re: Barbell strategies?

My approach is to forget about percent allocations and rebalancing. I just keep as much money as I figure I will need for survival in ultrasafe investments that should keep up with inflation (in my case, CDs), and gamble in stocks with whatever is excess. There are historical instances when 'safe' ...
by Clive
Thu Nov 10, 2016 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barbell strategies?
Replies: 14
Views: 1861

Re: Barbell strategies?

Call_Me_Op wrote:What is maximum downside for a 10X investment?

Same as 1x, total loss
by Clive
Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barbell strategies?
Replies: 14
Views: 1861

Re: Barbell strategies?

as those espoused by Taleb and others that supposedly place greater emphasis on avoiding black swan events and using only super-safe and high risk/reward investments. So who is implementing an AA based on this approach and are there any studies as to how such strategies have worked in the past? Tal...
by Clive
Tue Nov 01, 2016 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks and Inflation
Replies: 27
Views: 1891

Re: Stocks and Inflation

Give everyone alive a equal share of all of the silver in the world and as the population expands so each individual has a smaller share of the silver. A Pound originally was a (Saxon, late 750's) pound weight of silver. Nowadays a Pound buys nowhere near a pound of silver. Money, if convertible to ...
by Clive
Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cap Weighted Index vs Equal Weighted Index
Replies: 14
Views: 1030

Re: Cap Weighted Index vs Equal Weighted Index

One variation of equal weighting is to initially buy equal $ amounts of each of 30, 50 (whatever) stocks, ideally diversifying across sectors, then sit back and forget. In practice there will be takeovers, dividends ... etc. to manage, but otherwise low cost (initial) equal weighted. If 3% dividends...
by Clive
Sat Oct 29, 2016 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international?
Replies: 78
Views: 6232

Re: How much international?

No more than 33% in any one single risk factor - that includes single geopolitical risk. Assuming a 30 year+ investment horizon, who knows what might happen and a single loss of -33% whilst painful is recoverable. -100%, no matter how remote, is a exceptional (non recoverable) loss.
by Clive
Thu Oct 27, 2016 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks For The Long Run In The Paper (Fiat) Currency Era
Replies: 16
Views: 2255

Re: Stocks For The Long Run In The Paper (Fiat) Currency Era

Reading the documents Barry Barnitz linked to helps us understand that long-term yields were kept low by having the government buy back long-term bonds at high prices! Smart long-bond holders could avoid losing money they would have otherwise lost had interest rates went up; they only needed to cas...
by Clive
Thu Oct 27, 2016 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Replicate a 3X ETF using 1x ETF Price Data in Excel?
Replies: 13
Views: 1011

Re: How to Replicate a 3X ETF using 1x ETF Price Data in Excel?

Many buy a home on leverage. Maybe 20% down, remainder borrowed. In the UK over the last 100+ years, house prices plus imputed rent benefit (rent you'd otherwise pay if you sold and rented a similar property) have broadly compared to stock total returns. Regional variations are apparent as are varia...
by Clive
Thu Oct 27, 2016 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks For The Long Run In The Paper (Fiat) Currency Era
Replies: 16
Views: 2255

Re: Stocks For The Long Run In The Paper (Fiat) Currency Era

It would be interesting to see similar charts for mature early-19th century economies such as the UK, Germany and Russia

See here http://www.investering.dk/documents/106 ... 1378cb0412
by Clive
Thu Oct 27, 2016 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks For The Long Run In The Paper (Fiat) Currency Era
Replies: 16
Views: 2255

Re: Stocks For The Long Run In The Paper (Fiat) Currency Era

The other lesson is that governments are a big risk for one's money. :annoyed So suggested safe Treasuries bear non rewarded risk exposure? Looks that way when you compare over 20 or 30 year horizons (average individual investment periods). If so then Buffett is right (surprise surprise), near 100%...
by Clive
Thu Oct 27, 2016 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Replicate a 3X ETF using 1x ETF Price Data in Excel?
Replies: 13
Views: 1011

Re: How to Replicate a 3X ETF using 1x ETF Price Data in Excel?

Goes back further than the short term treasury https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2016&lastMonth=12&endDate=10%2F25%2F2016&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflati...
by Clive
Wed Oct 26, 2016 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Replicate a 3X ETF using 1x ETF Price Data in Excel?
Replies: 13
Views: 1011

Re: How to Replicate a 3X ETF using 1x ETF Price Data in Excel?

RYMDX is one of the oldest leveraged funds, has high fees, high turnover, targets 1.5x Russell 2000 ... and when scaled/compared to the Russell 2000 over the last 15 years : https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=20...
by Clive
Wed Oct 26, 2016 5:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Replicate a 3X ETF using 1x ETF Price Data in Excel?
Replies: 13
Views: 1011

Re: How to Replicate a 3X ETF using 1x ETF Price Data in Excel?

I use LETF's extensively as they provide a means for tax efficiencies and liquidity. For instance as a UK investor if I hold US stocks I pay 15% withholding tax on dividends. Scaling down a 3x or a 2x to replicate 1x enables me to focus upon bond tax efficiencies/relative performance, pay less divid...
by Clive
Wed Oct 26, 2016 4:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Replicate a 3X ETF using 1x ETF Price Data in Excel?
Replies: 13
Views: 1011

Re: How to Replicate a 3X ETF using 1x ETF Price Data in Excel?

With 2x you can get away with rebalancing back to target weightings once every 6 months or even yearly. With higher scales you need to rebalance more frequently, such as quarterly. Using SHY short term treasury as a proxy for the cost of borrowing : (if you use NoScript or similar you'll have to dea...
by Clive
Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can gold and real estate grow in real terms in the very long run?
Replies: 32
Views: 2553

Re: Can gold and real estate grow in real terms in the very long run?

Indian households own something like 11% of the world's physical gold. The value of that gold makes up more than half of India's GDP. There are a lot of traditions as far as passing down gold jewelry in India that is probably a big factor in this, maybe also some desire to not rely on their home cu...
by Clive
Tue Oct 18, 2016 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can gold and real estate grow in real terms in the very long run?
Replies: 32
Views: 2553

Re: Can gold and real estate grow in real terms in the very long run?

In real terms, can gold and real estate grow in the very long term? Each of stock , gold and land prices might broadly be expected to pace inflation over the very long term. But with potentially VERY long periods of deviation. Stocks typically pay a dividend in addition to that. Land/home can be wo...
by Clive
Mon Oct 10, 2016 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Boring Can Be Beautiful"
Replies: 6
Views: 1559

Re: "Boring Can Be Beautiful"

The writer's next article should about choosing an appropriate benchmark. It's unfair to benchmark international stocks, which she held, to the US market. VT over the same period, 69% https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2011&firstMonth=10&am...
by Clive
Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why not just buy BRK
Replies: 85
Views: 7772

Re: why not just buy BRK

http://247wallst.com/investing/2016/05/09/warren-buffetts-4-largest-holdings/ BRK's 4 largest holdings https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1990&firstMonth=1&endYear=2016&lastMonth=12&endDate=10%2F02%2F2016&initialAmount=10000...
by Clive
Fri Sep 16, 2016 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The role of Gold as portfolio insurance
Replies: 52
Views: 4571

Re:

I did a rough backtest using simba's spreadsheet to illustrate that gold has been useful as a portfolio hedge. Let's have a look at portfolio draw-downs... 50/50 stock and bond blend: worst year -16% 34/33/33 stock, bond, and gold blend: worst year -9.28% The portfolio with gold lost money six year...
by Clive
Mon Sep 12, 2016 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads' Rule of Thumb - Stocks vs Bonds
Replies: 103
Views: 12249

Re: Bogleheads' Rule of Thumb - Stocks vs Bonds

I think Burt is spot on. I'm 52 and am at 65/35. (stocks/bonds) I think in retirement I will likely be 60/40 or 50/50 for life. At 60/40: If we experience another Great Depression (which we almost did in 2009), you would be closer to 20/80 after 3 or 4 years or 10/90 high to low, unless you rebalan...
by Clive
Mon Sep 12, 2016 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why wouldn't I leverage X5 on a 10/90 portfolio like this?
Replies: 23
Views: 2348

Re: Why wouldn't I leverage X5 on a 10/90 portfolio like this?

Zvi Bodie has suggested 10/90 with the 10 being in LEAPS that he approximates to being broadly comparable to 10x stock. Another variant is XIV (inverse volatility) that approximates to a 5x stock. To emulate 50/50 stock/bonds you might 5/95 LEAPS/bonds or 10/90 XIV/bonds. Such portfolio's are typica...
by Clive
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index
Replies: 51
Views: 7488

Re: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index

If you want to follow Buffett's advice to his own trustees, and putting figures rather than percentages on it, its simple .... once you have enough in safe treasury bills - then the rest can be invested in stocks. Where in his case enough in safe, as per oldzey's posting is $66 million.
by Clive
Mon Aug 08, 2016 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equal weight index funds
Replies: 75
Views: 6080

Re: Equal weight index funds

Reading that possibly equal weight beats cap weighted. Any opinions? Does vanguard offer them? The idea is to equal $ weight the initial purchases of individual holdings ... and then let it ride. So no fund provider provides such a option that I know of. History indicates that allocating equal prob...
by Clive
Fri Jul 29, 2016 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold. OUNZ, PHYS, IAU, GLD, SGOL?
Replies: 11
Views: 1047

Re: Gold. OUNZ, PHYS, IAU, GLD, SGOL?

Consider gold as one half of a barbell, with stocks at the other end, as a form of 'bond' bullet. For example instead of 50/50 TSM/TBM hold 75/25 stock/gold (that is set to 1975 onwards i.e. when it became legal to hold investment grade gold in the US). Half of gold in physical (long term buy and ho...
by Clive
Tue Jul 26, 2016 4:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification! A must read article
Replies: 9
Views: 2677

Re: Diversification! A must read article

The Golden Butterfly is 80% 4x4 Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio combined with 20% Small Cap Value i.e. data mined. For instance gold 1972 to 1974 saw yearly gains close to 50%, 70%, 70% respectively. Just one problem .... it was illegal to hold investment gold during those years, not becoming legal...
by Clive
Fri Jul 08, 2016 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement
Replies: 105
Views: 9841

Re: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement

Buffett does advocate 'averaging in over time' - typically over at least a decade+. 90/10 straight off from day 1 bears massive single time point risk. But in years 11 on you are lump summing investing. The past is immaterial. Once you are retired you are no different from someone who got an inheri...
by Clive
Fri Jul 08, 2016 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement
Replies: 105
Views: 9841

Re: Everyone is different

That's news to me as well, and seems like a pretty big thing to leave out (pensions etc.) . I try to remember that we have some newer investors here, so I wouldn't want to make a suggestion that would essentially put them in a 90/10 retirement portfolio, without explaining why that might be appropr...
by Clive
Fri Jul 08, 2016 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement
Replies: 105
Views: 9841

Re: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement

...I'd suspect the biggest difference in retirement is behavioral. Those going in 80/20 may have a hard time staying the course if their entire life savings drop 40% and they have no ability to replenish with new money. For those who have solid pensions and SS covering most of their essential needs...
by Clive
Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement
Replies: 105
Views: 9841

Re: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement

Rick Ferri makes a compelling case for 30/70 in retirement: https://portfoliosolutions.com/latest-learnings/blog/center-gravity-retirees To me what's important is having at least 25x spending in "safe assets" and the rest in equities. That equates to 40/60 in retirement. Nice sleep AA. Th...
by Clive
Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why most retirees will never spend down their portfolio" by Michael Kitces
Replies: 89
Views: 11521

Re: "Why most retirees will never spend down their portfolio" by Michael Kitces

But assume, instead, one defines "principal" in terms of real dollars of constant purchasing power. One then gets a different portrayal of the change in principal over the 30-year period. In the table below the "Nominal" columns show the figures behind the article's graph above ...
by Clive
Wed Jul 06, 2016 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in bonds" or "110 minus age = equities"?
Replies: 28
Views: 3378

Re: "Age in bonds" or "110 minus age = equities"?

recent work by Wade Pfau suggests that a "rising equity glide path" may be preferable in retirement. Whilst you might fear higher stock amounts in retirement, if those shares have been held for 20+ years then even if share prices halve likely the gains over the prior 20+ years would have ...
by Clive
Mon Jul 04, 2016 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement
Replies: 105
Views: 9841

Re: Fixed 60/40 AA in retirement

Assuming a 33 year horizon, you might construct a 33 rung ladder loading 3% into each rung for spending each year. Ideally each rung would pace (or better still exceed) inflation so as to maintain purchase power. Given that stocks over 20+ years tend to do well, typically providing inflation or bett...
by Clive
Sat Jul 02, 2016 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Bernstein and the Buffet Premium
Replies: 18
Views: 1673

Re: Dr. Bernstein and the Buffet Premium

BRK looks to have become a closet sampled based index fund since 1990. Share price more or less tracked the average of its four largest holdings of AXP, KO, WFC, IBM https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1990&firstMonth=1&endYear=2016&l...
by Clive
Thu Jun 30, 2016 2:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the deal with Japan?
Replies: 62
Views: 7069

Re: What's the deal with Japan?

Using data from Kenneth French's library http://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2016/6/29/fluco2016-06-29-191938_509x333_scrot.png A lost decade (1990's) after massive gains in earlier years for high book to price based stocks. This paints a very different picture, and it's in local currency....
by Clive
Thu Jun 30, 2016 2:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategies for Refilling Cash Holdings (Bucket 1) Over Time
Replies: 25
Views: 2198

Re: Assumption

The problem I have with BH, accumulation, and withdrawal is that the assumption is that they are done in a near absence of SS and pensions and purchased annuities. With 2 buckets, enough in bonds for 30 years of drawdown, stocks left to grow/accumulate (reinvested dividends), bond weighting relativ...
by Clive
Wed Jun 29, 2016 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategies for Refilling Cash Holdings (Bucket 1) Over Time
Replies: 25
Views: 2198

Re: Strategies for Refilling Cash Holdings (Bucket 1) Over Time

Interesting chart posted by surfer1 in this thread https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2958554#p2958554 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/zonination/investing/master/snippets/short-probability.png If bucket1 is a 30 year drawdown bucket then as stocks tend to >0% over 20 years a 30 year...
by Clive
Wed Jun 29, 2016 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the deal with Japan?
Replies: 62
Views: 7069

Re: What's the deal with Japan?

Using data from Kenneth French's library

Image

A lost decade (1990's) after massive gains in earlier years for high book to price based stocks.

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