Search found 3056 matches

by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Jan 26, 2016 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time property cycles, so why not market cycles?
Replies: 31
Views: 2289

Re: Time property cycles, so why not market cycles?

I've done a significant amount of work to determine a good timing strategy. As best I can tell after all that effort is that normal cycles can't be reliably timed in a way that improves returns net of taxes & fees over a simple buy & hold strategy. All of the indicators you need are too lagg...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]
Replies: 270
Views: 37121

Re: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]

The indicators I'm using for crash detection aren't necessarily the best ones for predicting stock market moves that don't involve crashes. For general use, I usually look at this model: http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2016/01/the-s-500-in-week-2-of-january-2016.html#.VqEEa_FnT68 http://1....
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is your action plan?
Replies: 43
Views: 2473

Re: What is your action plan?

matjen wrote:I was wondering where you have been during this bit of market turmoil Clearly_Irrational. Thanks for the update on your indicators.


I still believe most bear markets aren't actionable, so far the current turmoil seems to be in that category.
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is your action plan?
Replies: 43
Views: 2473

Re: What is your action plan?

My IPS contains a narrow provision for times when the active trading prohibition is lifted, but the current conditions don't match the requirements. At the moment I'm twiddling my fingers as usual. For anyone who cares, key indicators I'm watching: FED CHANGES - Green USSLIND - Green FRED RECESSION ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Dec 17, 2015 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rotating out of gold
Replies: 4
Views: 493

Re: Rotating out of gold

It will be interesting to see what comes next for gold. Is there a price where you would get back in, or is it completely dependent on your interest rate outlook? It's strictly based on actual real interest rates, no projections allowed. IPS says no active trading authorized under current condition...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Dec 17, 2015 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rotating out of gold
Replies: 4
Views: 493

Re: Rotating out of gold

Just out of curiosity, how are you counting inflation? Which measure, and is it projected or using the recent past? 12 month rolling average of the year over year CPI-U index rates. I double check vs. the billion prices project for reasonableness. Also, why actually use a short-term Treasury bond f...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Dec 17, 2015 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rotating out of gold
Replies: 4
Views: 493

Rotating out of gold

So I've been holding 20% gold for quite some time. My IPS rule is to hold gold when real interest rates are negative as making zero is better than a negative number. With the recent Fed rate increase and the falling inflation rate we're finally there. At some point in a previous thread I promised to...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Nov 24, 2015 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on paying Mortgage down vs Investing
Replies: 45
Views: 3240

Re: Thoughts on paying Mortgage down vs Investing

My rule of thumb would go like this:

1) Max out your tax advantaged space
2) Pay down mortgage
3) Invest in taxable space
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Nov 20, 2015 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MBA dilemma
Replies: 41
Views: 2956

Re: MBA dilemma

OP- Please also consider reading this book for knowledge before spending your hard earned money. The Personal MBA Personally I think I've learned plenty on my own, through work experience and my undergrad program, however I'm more interested in the HR Checkbox and resume signalling effects than the...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Nov 20, 2015 7:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MBA dilemma
Replies: 41
Views: 2956

Re: MBA dilemma

You should look into the Georgia WebMBA. I looked at every program in the country and settled on it. It can be completed in 18-months and is more reasonably priced than those you mentioned. You may want to check out geteducated.com and compare programs on the website. Although it's reasonably price...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Nov 20, 2015 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MBA dilemma
Replies: 41
Views: 2956

Re: MBA dilemma

I'm 60% through the Georgia WebMBA program. I love the format of the program. I work alongside 4 other students, in a cohort of approximately 40 people. I'm currently looking at Arizona State's online MBA, they have a similar cohort system and a nice lockstep class schedule that I like as well as b...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Nov 20, 2015 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MBA dilemma
Replies: 41
Views: 2956

Re: MBA dilemma

I wouldn't take an MBA from a non-accredited school, it would add little value and it would prevent you from taking it at a better school later if decided you needed it. As best I can tell MBAs come in four flavors: Awesome (money for nothing and chicks are free) - Top name brand school like Harvard...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Earner Careers?
Replies: 254
Views: 26589

Re: High Earner Careers?

I'd love to see something substantive that backs up these numbers. I think I was the first person to throw out tech in this thread, my wife is in tech, as are several of my friends, and their compensation (for their education and level of experience) isn't really comparable to any other field; stil...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Nov 18, 2015 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Earner Careers?
Replies: 254
Views: 26589

Re: High Earner Careers?

Keenobserver wrote:the 1% number is meant for non degree holders who ventured out on their own not 1% of the entire population..


Well, as a percentage of all small business owners with more than one employee then yeah it's likely higher than 1%. Not sure what it would be though.
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Nov 18, 2015 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Earner Careers?
Replies: 254
Views: 26589

Re: High Earner Careers?

I would love see your stats. FRED data suggests the fraction of incorporated self employed persons compared to all employees is around 3.7% or so. Whatever the actual rate of people making $300k plus from small business ownership without a college degree, it's very likely to be less than that amoun...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Nov 18, 2015 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Earner Careers?
Replies: 254
Views: 26589

Re: High Earner Careers?

If it was all rainbows and unicorns they wouldn't pay you to do it. Sure they would. They don't care how you feel about a job. What they care about is do they make money hiring you to do the work. The problem is the unicorn jobs tend to be either ones with a high barrier of entry (think rock star o...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Nov 18, 2015 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Earner Careers?
Replies: 254
Views: 26589

Re: High Earner Careers?

Perhaps one can lower their expectations a little? -what you don't mind doing -what you are reasonably good at -what pays reasonably well That's what I use anyway. Sure, and that's what I've done. I picked a career I'm pretty good at that pays pretty well and I dislike it less than everything else ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Nov 18, 2015 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Earner Careers?
Replies: 254
Views: 26589

Re: High Earner Careers?

In general to really make big money you're looking at (in no particular order):

1) Doctor
2) Lawyer
3) Management
4) Sales
5) Self Employment or Business Ownership
6) Be a 1% superstar in some other field
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Nov 18, 2015 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Earner Careers?
Replies: 254
Views: 26589

Re: High Earner Careers?

furwut wrote:Everybody should do a Venn diagram composed of what they love doing, what they are good at doing and what pays enough to allow a decent living standard.


Sadly, as best I can tell there is no three way intersection on that diagram.
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Nov 11, 2015 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Define Wealthy ..How to ?
Replies: 42
Views: 3759

Re: Define Wealthy ..How to ?

I finished reading millionaire next door and that made me wonder what that magic number net worth that puts people on wealthy side ? Well, in order to be "wealthy" I'd suggest you first need to be financially independent, so passive income > living expenses. To move from FI to Wealthy you...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Nov 06, 2015 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak
Replies: 86
Views: 11216

Re: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak

To your point VT, I was reading along quite nicely, and then suddenly I was reading my own comment! Dang those old restarted threads. Well, at least I didn't necro my own thread. But CI has done us the favor of recycling the very same mistake I haven't re-run the Case Schiller numbers, but I suspec...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Nov 06, 2015 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak
Replies: 86
Views: 11216

Re: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak

New housing compared to real median household income is getting more expensive: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=2rfj I'm not sure how that is sustainable. I mean sure, some of it is covered by the switch to two income families but we've blown way past the doubling mark so...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Oct 29, 2015 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any books for how people become wealthy?
Replies: 67
Views: 6863

Re: Any books for how people become wealthy?

I've read quite a few of them, most stories I've read can be summed up like this: "I do X to make my money now, but I got my first couple of million in real estate" or "I do X to make money now, but I made my initial stake by starting and then selling my business" If you read onl...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Oct 26, 2015 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Goal mindset when seeing ceiling in career
Replies: 29
Views: 2147

Re: Goal mindset when seeing ceiling in career

You basically have four options: 1) Become even better at what you do now and switch jobs once or twice to get pay raises. This can probably get you up into the low six figures before you cap out again, but after that you'll be pretty much stuck. Additionally due to ageism in IT you may have trouble...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your 2 retirement numbers?
Replies: 260
Views: 24996

Re: What are your 2 retirement numbers?

$2.1M in 2015 dollars. That's my minimum number. I'd still be "working" in that I'd have some minor oversight tasks of my portfolio and property management companies, and I'd likely be doing some things to increase my income but it wouldn't be my regular job. At $3M I wouldn't really be t...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Oct 21, 2015 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tesla Motors Stock
Replies: 260
Views: 32990

Re: Tesla Motors Stock

The very concept of determining a company's fundamental value using market forces is becoming obsolete. I don't think so, it's just that fundamentals play out over longer time frames. “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” --Benjamin Graham
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]
Replies: 270
Views: 37121

Re: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]

Dollars to donuts, most of the dividend cuts came from Energy based companies. Nothing to see here, keep investing. Hadn't looked at the breakdown by sector. That's interesting, I thought most of the energy company carnage was over at this point. Apparently some of them must have been more optimist...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]
Replies: 270
Views: 37121

Re: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]

Massive spike in corporate dividend cuts reported today, from 15 in August to 43 in September! (anything over 30 is quite bad) Other signals are still muted but they're on more of a reporting lag so it's possible they'll start deteriorating soon. No action to take at the moment, it's still too early...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 158
Views: 13391

Re: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?

stemikger wrote:They invest in productive businesses that add value to society.


Wait, they have to add value to society? That leaves out a hefty portion of the market right there.
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A better Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 2536

Re: A better Permanent Portfolio?

Still, as with the Boglehead approach, trying to figure out when times are prosperous and when they are prosperous no longer, well that would be market timing. This is clearly irrational. ;-) So obviously if you were trying to identify tops and bottoms in the gold market that would definitely be ma...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Sep 29, 2015 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A better Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 2536

Re: A better Permanent Portfolio?

In my opinion the real weakness of the PP is the static gold allocation. Gold is insurance like in nature and thus has a fairly high carrying cost. Holding it even when times are good is a significant drag on performance. Personally, I think the answer is to hold gold only when times are not prosper...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2692
Views: 534971

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

So you agree that the PE10 signal failed in the 90s. No, I just think that PE10, by itself, is not a sufficient reason to reduce your stock allocation. It's a signal that things are starting to get over-valued but it's not a good timing indicator in isolation. It was correct that stock valuations w...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2692
Views: 534971

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Did you run the analysis in "real time" going along or using the full history at every point? I did both. You didn't specify what month of 1995, so for illustration I'll use June. At that time I would have been worried about values above 24. Following along in real time as the threshold a...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Sep 29, 2015 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2692
Views: 534971

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

HomerJ wrote:We base AA on the need and willingness to take risk, not on what the market is doing.


I find the PE10 a reasonable indicator for when we're experiencing non-normal levels of risk but my own testing suggested that non-extreme values have little signaling power.
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Sep 28, 2015 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2692
Views: 534971

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Extremes happen. 1929 happened. 1937 happened. The panic of 1907 happened. The stock market dropping 22% in one day in 1987 happened. Bonds beating stocks over a 30-year period happened. 2008-2009 happened. They are not typical. They are also not hit-by-a-meteorite rare. Not only do extremes happen...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Sep 22, 2015 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?
Replies: 169
Views: 15607

Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

If I were buying individual stocks then I would definitely use a reputation hit as a signal to examine the stock more closely. This doesn't really change their long term fundamentals that much so I'd start by downloading their 10-K and doing some analysis. That said, you shouldn't really be buying i...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Sep 17, 2015 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cost of living expenses that have gone down
Replies: 7
Views: 1432

Re: Cost of living expenses that have gone down

It depends on what you pick as your starting date of course. In general buying stuff is cheaper, anything that involves regular payments is more expensive.
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Sep 17, 2015 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15
Replies: 332
Views: 36329

Re: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15

Or are you using an inverse ETF which is quite different from actually shorting, and, in my opinion, a fairly bad idea if you are planning to hold for more than a short time--see Inverse and leveraged ETFs . I had good luck with inverse ETFs, just stay away from the leveraged ones they don't track ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Sep 17, 2015 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15
Replies: 332
Views: 36329

Re: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15

You're nuts. Not for the timing part, that's just less than prudent, but for going short right now. 1) Bollinger band squeeze in progress so there is a move coming 2) Current chart pattern is an ascending triangle, suggests an upside breakout 3) MACD divergence is high but doesn't match the other si...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Sep 16, 2015 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I being too stingy for a high-income household?
Replies: 223
Views: 17985

Re: Am I being too stingy for a high-income household?

The car is a no brainer, just do it. I'd say discuss the house and run some scenarios to try and find the best option. (moving, staying and remodeling, etc.) It really depends on why she wants a new house. 3200sqft is already pretty big, I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the idea of nee...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Your Safe Withdrawal Rate is Probably Wrong
Replies: 123
Views: 12809

Re: Why Your Safe Withdrawal Rate is Probably Wrong

I think we only have 1 unknown variable. Lifespan, we know close enough to make a good calculation. I strongly disagree. My current life expectancy is 82, but that's just the mean of the distribution curve. Even worse, it's based on backwards looking data that doesn't take future medical advances o...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Your Safe Withdrawal Rate is Probably Wrong
Replies: 123
Views: 12809

Re: Why Your Safe Withdrawal Rate is Probably Wrong

The extreme differences in the numbers promulgated by different authorities and at different times shows that all of these SWR studies are extremely sensitive to assumptions, which is another way of saying they are useless. Well, useless is a pretty strong description but I think you've got a good ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]
Replies: 270
Views: 37121

Re: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]

The cumulative AD line and the Dow transports have been headed down for months. OP does not use these indicators, but others do. I paid more attention to them when I was actively trading. I do still look at the Baltic dry index and rail traffic now and then but more as a confirmation type of thing ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Aug 24, 2015 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "There’s No Need to Fear Stock Market Corrections"
Replies: 15
Views: 2716

Re: "There’s No Need to Fear Stock Market Corrections"

Thanks Taylor. Now that I'm within a decade of retiring, I consider the last few trading days (and in particular this morning) a good opportunity to gauge my *actual* risk tolerance. My only reaction was to check for opportunities to tax-loss harvest this morning, but considered no other action. So...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]
Replies: 270
Views: 37121

Re: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]

I do understand that. I was just wondering the effect of today's decline on your warning sign calculation. Current stock prices have only minimal effect since it's mostly an economic indicator. PE10 is about the only component impacted and it actually went down (though that can be a bad sign coming...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]
Replies: 270
Views: 37121

Re: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]

Would like to see an update on this after today's close. Still no signal. Remember, this is along the lines of an avalanche warning, it won't tell you prior to the start of the decline or even identify the top, but once the snow starts coming down the mountain you'll get a bit of warning before it ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Careers: MD, Non-MD, MBA, Engineering, Law, Teaching
Replies: 96
Views: 9635

Re: Careers: MD, Non-MD, MBA, Engineering, Law, Teaching

a wrote:So a #3 person
is probably 20% mentally healthy whereas a purely #4 person is 0%
mentally healthy.


I think you could have shortened your post to "I don't like introverts". I'm not sure how that's relevant to the conversation however.
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Aug 07, 2015 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?
Replies: 201
Views: 14899

Re: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?

I've spent more or less $1,000 per month for groceries (Excludes restaurants but includes wine) living in nyc, Seoul, Shanghai, and pretty much everywhere else I've lived since I started tracking spending. I would love to figure out how so many are able to do it for only a few hundred per month... ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Aug 07, 2015 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?
Replies: 201
Views: 14899

Re: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?

Caduceus wrote:I would gladly pay $200 a month not to have to cook :D


Honestly I doubt your savings would be that high, probably more in the neighborhood of $100, so if you're happy with your routine then don't worry about it.

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