Search found 710 matches

by Chan_va
Mon Jul 10, 2017 1:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Information, New Viewpoint on Investing?
Replies: 28
Views: 2408

Re: New Information, New Viewpoint on Investing?

I used to believe that 'alpha' was a myth. Paradoxically after spending time on the forum, I have come to believe that it is possible for the small investor to generate some alpha. But the catch is that for a small investor, the time, effort and mental energy required is too great for the payoff. An...
by Chan_va
Sun Jul 09, 2017 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: can't logon to vanguard account [Website Down]
Replies: 92
Views: 2894

Re: can't logon to vanguard account [Website Down]

I don't think those not in the tech sector realize how basic this is. It's not about my making critical transactions at 10 am on Sunday. It's a symptom of a much deeper problem. If vanguard can't roll out routine upgrades without taking the site down- something your average blogger can now do easily...
by Chan_va
Sun Jul 09, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: can't logon to vanguard account [Website Down]
Replies: 92
Views: 2894

Re: Is Vanguard down this AM (7/9/17)?

Guys this is not your average mom and pop website. This is a website and backend that manages trillions of dollars. There is no excuse for any downtime. Is is routine to have clusters of servers and have updates done on a rolling basis that results in no downtime. Websites that are far less critical...
by Chan_va
Thu Jun 01, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Changing Car Cabin Air Filter - after how much time
Replies: 45
Views: 2448

Re: Changing Car Cabin Air Filter - after how much time

On most cars, its a simple DIY job. You can buy cheap non OEM filters. Dont. When you do replace it, replace it with the OEM part.
by Chan_va
Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Drowning in debt
Replies: 52
Views: 4865

Re: Drowning in debt

What did you purchase with the $140k HELOC? For privacy, I don't wish to disclose it here. I can say it is an asset that I expect to appreciate at 5% per year and costs next to nothing to keep. Sell the asset and pay off the HELOC. You are arbitraging a potential gain of 5% vs. a certain loss of 4%...
by Chan_va
Mon May 29, 2017 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Approach for 'doing better' with emergency funds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2124

Re: Approach for 'doing better' with emergency funds?

What is your marginal tax bracket? There are things that matter in investing and things that don't. A 2% swing one way or another on an emergency fund falls into the latter. Dont sweat it.
by Chan_va
Sun May 21, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction
Replies: 36
Views: 3446

Re: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction

If I understand right, you are asking the following question. Given a particular value (PE 10?) of the stock market, is there a bond duration that minimizes the loss function of the portfolio over time period Y? If you frame it that way, then the answer becomes - no way to know since you have to pr...
by Chan_va
Sun May 21, 2017 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction
Replies: 36
Views: 3446

Re: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction

If I understand right, you are asking the following question. Given a particular value (PE 10?) of the stock market, is there a bond duration that minimizes the loss function of the portfolio over time period Y? If you frame it that way, then the answer becomes - no way to know since you have to pre...
by Chan_va
Sun May 21, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value vs Equal vs Other Weighing
Replies: 13
Views: 893

Re: Value vs Equal vs Other Weighing

nisiprius, Regarding stock, what confuses me is the following: imagine you have a stock that because of any other reason other than changes in fundamentals becomes overvalued (i know value can change a lot depending on each investors' perspective, but lets assume it is a fixed number or a range of ...
by Chan_va
Sat May 13, 2017 9:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a luxury car (how dumb would it be to do this?)
Replies: 216
Views: 19348

Re: Buying a luxury car (how dumb would it be to do this?)

OP, of course you can afford it. But you are sorely mistaken if you think the x5 is 'fun' or truly 'luxury'. It's a people hauler. My advice - buy a cheap people hauler but buy yourself another fun car. Which leads us inexorably to the only logical answer that all car threads eventually converge to....
by Chan_va
Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Employer Being "Bought Out" By Another Company
Replies: 11
Views: 1180

Re: Employer Being "Bought Out" By Another Company

Need more details. Is this a small company being bought out by a larger one? Is the company buying you a holding company that lets each acquired company operate individually? Or is the premise of the acquisition that there will be synergies between the companies? Is the acquiring entity keeping your...
by Chan_va
Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is anyone decreasing % of bonds this year?
Replies: 91
Views: 7701

Re: Is anyone decreasing % of bonds this year?

I am calling a top in US equities. Moving from an AA of 70-30 to 60-40.
by Chan_va
Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got my second comma -- what is this anticlimactic feeling?
Replies: 55
Views: 7038

Re: Got my second comma -- what is this anticlimactic feeling?

Probably because you know that the 8 year bull market has to end sometime, and when it does, you will drop back. But crack open a cold one now - you have earned it!
by Chan_va
Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: anyone factor in future inheritance?
Replies: 78
Views: 5252

Re: anyone factor in future inheritance?

I do. I also factor in the Powerball lottery I will win in 2026.
by Chan_va
Mon Mar 06, 2017 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates: A 2000-2016 case study
Replies: 31
Views: 4681

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates: A 2000-2016 case study

If I am reading the link in the OP correctly, it boils down to -The 4% rule works for 30 year retirements. For longer time periods, it may not work. -The real value of your portfolio will go down over time. Both these I thought are well understood corollaries of the 4% rule. No one ever said that th...
by Chan_va
Sun Mar 05, 2017 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice on relocation or staying put
Replies: 83
Views: 6158

Re: Advice on relocation or staying put

We moved from the east coast to Seattle with 2 young kids recently after having lived in one place for 18 years. Similar to your situation. Seattle is great. I personally don't mind the weather at all. I prefer the cool and wet winter actually. And once in a while, the clouds will clear in the winte...
by Chan_va
Sun Mar 05, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coffee Home Roaster -> Where to get the green bean?
Replies: 21
Views: 1261

Re: Coffee Home Roaster -> Where to get the green bean?

Until I saw this post I was not aware of this method to roast your own beans! I just finished watching a youtube video and am intrigued! Is the taste consistent each roast? Is it lower cost than buying a good roast at the store? We have a Whirley-pop for popcorn-has anyone used this method on an el...
by Chan_va
Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Backpackers- weight vs utility question
Replies: 42
Views: 2946

Re: Backpackers- weight vs utility question

A kindle. Not the new models that hold a charge for a couple of days, but the old ones that could go a good month between charges.
by Chan_va
Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett Annual Letter 2016 [Jack Bogle is a hero]
Replies: 69
Views: 6390

Re: Buffett Annual Letter 2016 [Jack Bogle is a hero]

By the way, this line on page 9 of the letter caught my attention. "The investment portfolios of almost all P/C (property/casualty) companies – though not those of Berkshire – are heavily concentrated in bonds" That is interesting. I always thought that the industry was heavily regulated, ...
by Chan_va
Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wow, Vanguard Flagship service is bad. Really bad.
Replies: 151
Views: 23638

Re: New rep: personal bankruptcy an issue?

Well, as part of Vanguard moving me to Flagship Select, I was given a different representative. I checked out the person using the FINRA lookup link posted earlier in this thread and found the person was more junior and less experienced than my last rep, and had filed for personal bankruptcy just b...
by Chan_va
Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3810

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

baw To me the conclusion is simple and obvious, since no one can know which factor(s) will do well in the future the prudent strategy is clearly to diversify across the factors that meet the criteria of being persistent, pervasive, robust, implementable and have intuitive reasons to believe you are...
by Chan_va
Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3810

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

baw To me the conclusion is simple and obvious, since no one can know which factor(s) will do well in the future the prudent strategy is clearly to diversify across the factors that meet the criteria of being persistent, pervasive, robust, implementable and have intuitive reasons to believe you are...
by Chan_va
Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No debt, except for...
Replies: 7
Views: 1245

Re: No debt, except for...

I agree with your general sentiment about debt reduction and buying too much house. However, mortgages are a special kind of debt. Where else can you get a subsidized, 30 year, fixed rate, low interest loan? Not to mention - it's an inflation hedge.
by Chan_va
Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Annual Vacation Budget
Replies: 320
Views: 26850

Re: Annual Vacation Budget

Roughly 15k/yr. Family of 4.
by Chan_va
Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalance into cash
Replies: 44
Views: 3692

Re: Rebalance into cash

I think there is a little confusion here i am not advocating a 100% cash position just putting what i sell from rebalance into cash. For example lets say i have $100,000 50k bonds 50k stocks market goes up now i have 60k stock 40k bonds that puts me into a re balance. I have a choice i can take the...
by Chan_va
Mon Jan 09, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cap Weighting International
Replies: 11
Views: 636

Re: Cap Weighting International

If you are going to Cap Weight, then there is no "natural weight". The natural weight is whatever the cap weight is at that time. The idea is not to pick a number based on the current cap weight, and hold that constant, but to let the market determine what it is. If it varies by 50 points ...
by Chan_va
Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Backdoor Roth issue using Federal MMF
Replies: 27
Views: 1965

Re: Backdoor Roth issue using Federal MMF

I used Prime MM as well - I recall seeing a message saying that the funds wouldn't be available in the account till 1/10, but it let me click through and compete the conversion.
by Chan_va
Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Backdoor Roth IRA strategy
Replies: 6
Views: 727

Re: 2017 Backdoor Roth IRA strategy

Retroactive laws are prohibited by the US constitution. So, I would say - yes, you are overthinking this.
by Chan_va
Tue Jan 03, 2017 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 21278

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

If stocks were indeed "riskless" over the long term, the market would quickly bid up the price of equities to make the equity risk premium disappear. The fact that this hasn't happened means one of three things 1. The market is wrong about equity prices 2. Equities are riskless over the lo...
by Chan_va
Tue Jan 03, 2017 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 245
Views: 30728

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Everytime I think I am doing ok, a thread like this pops up and reminds me that the average boglehead is above average. (Either that or I am being trolled. I hope it's the latter.)

My number is.....

Image
by Chan_va
Tue Jan 03, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Classifying "Other" investments in Vanguard Portfolio Watch
Replies: 9
Views: 978

Re: Classifying "Other" investments in Vanguard Portfolio Watch

As far as I can tell, the feature went away when the new aggregator came. I have the same problem. My 401k uses CITs that show up as other. I have given up on Portfolio Watch. I never really found it that useful in the first place, so I don't mind losing it. Thanks. What do you use in place of Port...
by Chan_va
Tue Jan 03, 2017 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Classifying "Other" investments in Vanguard Portfolio Watch
Replies: 9
Views: 978

Classifying "Other" investments in Vanguard Portfolio Watch

I use Vanguard's Portfolio Watch tool to track my overall asset allocation. I also use Vanguard's aggregator service to track and update my non-Vanguard investments. A number of my outside investments show up as "Other" in Portfolio Watch. I used to be able to edit the investment to specif...
by Chan_va
Tue Dec 27, 2016 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Study Table for kids
Replies: 16
Views: 1026

Re: Study Table for kids

Are you sure you want both to study together on the same table? My kids would be way too distracted by each other - so I went with separate ones for both. Craigslist for the source. Btw, I predict a steady stream of one-upmanship on this thread, ranging from "When I was a kid, I made my own stu...
by Chan_va
Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Most sustainable vehicle
Replies: 44
Views: 2964

Re: Most sustainable vehicle

Buy a used car. Then, you have automatically taken the "pre-prod" out of the equation, and can just focus on the efficiency of the vehicle.
by Chan_va
Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'll never save a 20% down payment. Rent for life?
Replies: 138
Views: 14178

Re: I'll never save a 20% down payment. Rent for life?

There is an important psychological aspect to this as well, one that I didn't fully realize until a month or so ago. I recently went back to renting after a decade of home ownership (moved cross country for a job). At the risk of sounding like an ad for a real estate company, there is something abou...
by Chan_va
Fri Nov 04, 2016 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Dentist - Lots of Recommended Work
Replies: 55
Views: 6672

Re: New Dentist - Lots of Recommended Work

When I first moved to this country many years ago, I used to go to this dentist who recommended about 3 fillings every time I saw him. He even had a tool that could "detect cavities before they form". Took me a while to wise up to this. Another time I had a primary care physician who detec...
by Chan_va
Thu Oct 20, 2016 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The long run is a collection of short runs
Replies: 5
Views: 656

Re: The long run is a collection of short runs

This a profound. At the core of the boglehead philosophy, (and most other investing philosophies) is that there is a timeframe called "long-term", and a separate different "short term". This has 2 issues 1. How do you define short and long term? This one is semantics, and it not ...
by Chan_va
Fri Sep 23, 2016 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tenant responsible for appliances?
Replies: 20
Views: 1652

Re: Tenant responsible for appliances?

Thanks all. Confirms what I thought. Have been homeowners for a long time and have forgotten what is common and what is not in a rental. Talked to the leasing agent and he is going to change the wording to something that indicates that it is is tenants responsibility only if the damage is caused by ...
by Chan_va
Fri Sep 23, 2016 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tenant responsible for appliances?
Replies: 20
Views: 1652

Re: Tenant responsible for appliances?

Uhm, did you notice that they said except for built-ins like washer/dryer/stove etc? Presumably this means like the toaster or the microwave they put on the island for you... And yeah, its legal. I can rent you an apartment with no appliances and you then get to put them all in your self. If you do...
by Chan_va
Fri Sep 23, 2016 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tenant responsible for appliances?
Replies: 20
Views: 1652

Tenant responsible for appliances?

Folks, I am about to sign a lease for a property in Seattle, WA. I see this in the lease agreement "Resident recognizes that all appliances other than built-ins, such as refrigerator, stove, washer and dryer, are for their convenience only. Resident therefore agrees to maintain those appliances...
by Chan_va
Wed Sep 14, 2016 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite Coffee
Replies: 147
Views: 13054

Re: Favorite Coffee

Freshly roasted (about 2 day old) Sumatran brewed in an aeropresss. Love the chocolatey flavor. Best cup of coffee was a $7 Kenyan I had at a very hip coffee bar in Lancaster pa. I highly doubted that any coffee could be worth 7 dollars a cup but the fragrance of blueberries and the beautifully bala...
by Chan_va
Tue Sep 13, 2016 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you invest in artificial intelligence?
Replies: 21
Views: 1925

Re: Should you invest in artificial intelligence?

Of course you should invest in AI. When our Roomba overlords decide who will work in the titanium mines and who will mop the floors, I am hoping that my proven allegiance to the cause will win me trusted adviser status.
by Chan_va
Fri Sep 09, 2016 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: map frustration
Replies: 76
Views: 5206

Re: map frustration

I too have that problem. Also, my horse often needs to rest and I cant find any where to stable him.

Just kidding. Just kidding. Don't pillory me. I assume you guys have actual pillories.

Just kidding again.
by Chan_va
Sat Sep 03, 2016 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Moving to Seattle from DC
Replies: 30
Views: 2815

Re: Moving to Seattle from DC

Update: We seem to have narrowed ourselves to two properties. One in the loyal heights elementary area and another near the university village at the university of Washington.

Thoughts on location, area etc for these 2 places?

Thanks.
by Chan_va
Fri Jul 22, 2016 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Moving to Seattle from DC
Replies: 30
Views: 2815

Re: Moving to Seattle from DC

I think I may have misused the word "Downtown". The job will be more in the north of seattle - close to 500 9th Ave N. If that makes a difference.
by Chan_va
Fri Jul 22, 2016 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Moving to Seattle from DC
Replies: 30
Views: 2815

Re: Moving to Seattle from DC

Thanks all. Assuming we were willing to compromise on the "leafy neighbourhood" for a more urban location, what would be some options closer to Downtown with good schools and a reasonable commute?
by Chan_va
Fri Jul 22, 2016 8:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Moving to Seattle from DC
Replies: 30
Views: 2815

Moving to Seattle from DC

Folks, I am considering moving to Seattle from the Washington DC area. Looking for general thoughts from people who have made such a move. - What would be a good area to move to? Job will be downtown, have young family, so need good schools, looking for a nice neighborhood that has good schools, rea...
by Chan_va
Fri Apr 22, 2016 1:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Fresh Look at Local Bias in Investing
Replies: 15
Views: 1760

Re: A Fresh Look at Local Bias in Investing

There is an important game theory / psychological loss aversion aspect to this as well. If you accept 2 principles - success/failure is only measurable compared to your peer group, and that loss is much more painful than gain is joyful, then it logically follows that you should have a home country b...
by Chan_va
Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying home without mortgage - what to consider
Replies: 16
Views: 2219

Re: Buying home without mortgage - what to consider

I don't get it. The last several years when rates have been dirt cheap everyone is keen to pay cash for houses. I have done the opposite, I never used a mortgage or had more than one house prior to 2009. Since then we have bought several houses, all with mortgages, Keeping the money that would have...
by Chan_va
Mon Mar 28, 2016 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying home without mortgage - what to consider
Replies: 16
Views: 2219

Re: Buying home without mortgage - what to consider

Thanks All. Looks fairly straightforward.

Also planning to use Redfin as a real estate service. Any experience using them?

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