Search found 6229 matches

by Call_Me_Op
Fri Dec 02, 2016 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Lazy portfolio can make profit even in 2008 crash?
Replies: 32
Views: 2047

Re: Any Lazy portfolio can make profit even in 2008 crash?

Any portfolio that includes a large slug of intermediate or long-term US treasuries.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 144
Views: 10069

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

If risk has any meaning, it should mean that we can't be comfortable that a riskier investment will have a higher return over any given time frame, short or long. That's correct - the relationship is statistical. That is to say we cannot be comfortable that a riskier investment will have a higher r...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 30, 2016 7:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I buy a new car for safety's sake?
Replies: 152
Views: 5904

Re: Should I buy a new car for safety's sake?

Hi Bogleheads - In a thread a couple days ago on car leasing, one of our fellow Bogleheads expressed the opinion that it's dumb for someone who's financially secure to drive a 10-year-old car, given the advances in safety that auto manufacturers have made. What advances - you mean the 12 airbags - ...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 30, 2016 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 144
Views: 10069

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

Oh, please. And if I look at 1928-present, I see one period of time during which small-cap value lost 89% of its value , and the number of times that's happened to large-cap blend is never . From 1928-2013, the standard deviation (= "risk") for small-cap value was 32 and for large blend i...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Nov 29, 2016 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I consider EE Savings Bond (double in value in 20Y)?
Replies: 9
Views: 1337

Re: Should I consider EE Savings Bond (double in value in 20Y)?

For me, EE bonds were about inflation protection with a chance at a higher return than I-Bonds and TIPS. But really, they don't guarantee either. I'd rather hold I-Bonds/TIPS for funds that I need inflation protection, and equities/bonds for funds that I want to grow. I take an "all of the abo...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Nov 29, 2016 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interm. Term muni - price drop vs sec yield increase
Replies: 18
Views: 1515

Re: Interm. Term muni - price drop vs sec yield increase

SEC yield equation is based upon a 30 day running average which acts to produce a time lag for the SEC yield.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Nov 29, 2016 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: single bonds vs bond funds with increasing interest rates
Replies: 13
Views: 1565

Re: single bonds vs bond funds with increasing interest rates

The only thing I will add to the fine information above is there is no problem with the idea of buying individual treasuries or brokered CD's (which are FDIC-insured bonds). But for other bond types, funds are better for most individual investors.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 26, 2016 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Variable Annuities
Replies: 8
Views: 572

Re: Vanguard Variable Annuities

Huey,

Thanks for clarifying that issue.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 26, 2016 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Variable Annuities
Replies: 8
Views: 572

Re: Vanguard Variable Annuities

Thanks retired. It's just an idea I am toying with. I do not have enough room in my Traditional IRA.

I am somewhat concerned with the implications of being dependent upon the credit-worthiness of the underlying insurance company.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 26, 2016 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Variable Annuities
Replies: 8
Views: 572

Vanguard Variable Annuities

I want some exposure to REITs and do not have that option in my 401k. I am exploring purchasing a Vanguard REIT index fund in the form of a variable annuity (using taxable dollars). The stated total expense ratio is 0.56%. Does the 0.56% cover all expenses (outside of trading costs) or are there oth...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 26, 2016 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My Bonds Are Enraging Me
Replies: 43
Views: 5182

Re: My Bonds Are Enraging Me

JKE wrote:Thanks everyone. I have much to learn. I think from now on I'll look at my returns only once a year.


Ya - right.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TaxAct pre-purchase discount
Replies: 100
Views: 7765

Re: TaxAct pre-purchase discount

The best deal I could get from Taxact for the Plus edition is $10.50 for Federal (30% off with early lock-in) plus an extra $25 for a state. Did I miss something? Seems like the price has gone up substantially compared to last year.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merriman 2 fund portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 1192

Re: Merriman 2 fund portfolio

I like following his actual explanations of what he's doing and why he's doing it (many other writers have no clue what they're doing and spend all their article space hand waving and pointing away from the curtain). Yes, he is clear and unapologetic about basing all of his recommendations on the l...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 24, 2016 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Contest leaders as S&P 500 Index makes new high
Replies: 16
Views: 2123

Re: Boglehead Contest leaders as S&P 500 Index makes new high

I'm at number 6 today - not too shabby for a WAG.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 24, 2016 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market Strategy Now
Replies: 24
Views: 3790

Re: Bond Market Strategy Now

Dandy wrote: You might consider an immediate or deferred annuity at some point since any rising rates should be good for insurance company financials.


But probably not good for your financials (since probably accompanied by increasing inflation rate).
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 23, 2016 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth Question
Replies: 6
Views: 338

Re: Backdoor Roth Question

You would have to pay taxes on the earnings in your IRA. So, here are a few questions you may want to consider: How much would the tax burden on that 20% earnings @ 33% rate? Do you have funds available to pay that tax? Can you not rollover that to your current 401k (either just the earnings into a...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 23, 2016 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth Question
Replies: 6
Views: 338

Backdoor Roth Question

I have a traditional IRA funded with after tax dollars. The cost basis is about 80% of the IRA balance. (I am ineligible to contribute to a Roth directly.) Is there any reason I would not want to convert this IRA to a back-door Roth and then convert each year going forward? My current federal margin...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 23, 2016 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: small cap value? overplayed?
Replies: 30
Views: 3257

Re: small cap value? overplayed?

deezwho wrote:
is there an argument to be made that shows that it is factually advantageous to invest with tilt...l


There are few facts when it comes to investing.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 23, 2016 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 168
Views: 12496

Re: Retreat to cash

Nobody can say for sure how your plan will work out, but from a strategic standpoint it is a mistake.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Nov 22, 2016 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on unnecessary risk of capitalization based index funds.
Replies: 22
Views: 2685

Re: Bogle on unnecessary risk of capitalization based index funds.

I just watched an interview with John Bogle where he was asked about using a capitalization weighted index. His reply was that as soon as a particular capitalization-weighted index is seen to yield high returns, then investors flock to it and the opportunity is lost, and so he did not think the ext...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Nov 21, 2016 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does a bond bear market look like?
Replies: 91
Views: 7892

Re: What does a bond bear market look like?

Go to Yahoo Finance (Linked below) and look at Vanguard Intermediate Term Muni fund (VWITX) returns for the period 1978 to 1981. Look at the bottom of the page. During this time period interest rates were going up dramatically due to inflation. This is the most recent period when interest rate went...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Nov 21, 2016 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does a bond bear market look like?
Replies: 91
Views: 7892

Re: What does a bond bear market look like?

...I didn't talk about it, but I posted a picture of it. This is the one chart I showed that's a price chart rather than a growth chart...- Nisiprius, Will you help me understand how continuous regular investment affects these charts? e.g. rather than just reinvesting the interest from my bond fund...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Nov 20, 2016 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does a bond bear market look like?
Replies: 91
Views: 7892

Re: What does a bond bear market look like?

I don't think so. A bear market in bonds looks like the 16 year period 1966-1981, when the cumulative real (inflation adjusted) return for long-term Treasuries was -59%, intermediate Treasuries was -33%, and short term Treasuries was -15% (be sure to notice that these are all negative numbers). Of ...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 19, 2016 8:19 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Valuethinker has surpassed 30,000 posts
Replies: 39
Views: 3099

Re: Valuethinker has surpassed 30,000 posts

I add to the congratulations. Valuethinker is both a gentleman and a scholar.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Nov 18, 2016 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation Protection: TIPS or Gold?
Replies: 35
Views: 2991

Re: Inflation Protection: TIPS or Gold?

In addition to a traditional 3-fund portfolio, id like to add some protection against inflation as I suspect is likely to be on the rise now and for many many years to come. How do TIPS & Gold each protect against inflation, how do they differ, and which do you use or recommend ? Neither is par...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can Bank Change CD Terms Mid-Stream?
Replies: 40
Views: 3235

Re: Can Bank Change CD Terms Mid-Stream?

re: brokered CDs - my understanding though is that they have the liquidity (minus the trading spread cost) which direct CDs don't though which could be useful if rates drop and you rebalance. I'm not so sure about that. The buy/sell spread tends to be quite large for brokered CDs, so it wouldn't be...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Nov 14, 2016 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds suck
Replies: 46
Views: 6390

Re: Bonds suck

OK, I know this is a bit of an overstatement, but I'm just not impressed. I bought into a bond fund about a year ago, and to be honest, it looks like I should've just kept my money in a high-yield savings account. Now with the election, it looks like bonds have taken a total dump. What is the curre...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 12, 2016 8:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 50% Increase in my Long Term Care Policy
Replies: 23
Views: 2598

Re: 50% Increase in my Long Term Care Policy

There are two groups of people: Those who have enough that they don't need LTC insurance, and those who cannot afford it.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 12, 2016 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it a good time to buy bond ETF now?
Replies: 10
Views: 1350

Re: Is it a good time to buy bond ETF now?

So what if it is called market timing? Clearly, folks should have bought US stocks before the election by exchanging out of bonds and foreign stocks. Indeed, US stocks had dropped before the election, so it was natural to rebalance into them. Now after US stocks are up as much as 10% and foreign st...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 12, 2016 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it a good time to buy bond ETF now?
Replies: 10
Views: 1350

Re: Is it a good time to buy bond ETF now?

Hi, I am new to investment. Welcome to the Bogleheads Forum! I was observing the market last month and wanted to invest after election. That's generally called "market timing," and is not recommended. I saw the stock market reached new high this week but bond market was falling. So I boug...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 12, 2016 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stay the Course in the Next Bad Market?"
Replies: 32
Views: 5447

Re: "Stay the Course in the Next Bad Market?"

Taylor Larimore wrote:
livesoft wrote:This is kinda a strange thread when the Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 stocks has ripped to an all-time high.

livesoft:

The time to discuss bear markets, and how to prepare for them, is before they happen.

I know you agree.


I certainly do. Thanks for the reminderTaylor.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Nov 11, 2016 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barbell strategies?
Replies: 14
Views: 1858

Re: Barbell strategies?

Clive wrote:
Call_Me_Op wrote:What is maximum downside for a 10X investment?

Same as 1x, total loss


I was wondering if the 10X investment is leveraged, and if it could result in one losing more than invested.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Nov 11, 2016 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation question re: Bonds
Replies: 9
Views: 702

Re: Asset Allocation question re: Bonds

Market timing is never a prudent strategy. Bonds are much less risky than stocks (in terms of near-term volatility). If you feel that 65/35 is more aligned with your risk tolerance, I would not hesitate to make the adjustment.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barbell strategies?
Replies: 14
Views: 1858

Re: Barbell strategies?

What is maximum downside for a 10X investment?
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 10, 2016 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just don't panic
Replies: 61
Views: 8689

Re: Just don't panic

lgs88 wrote:S&P500 futures suggest that the market is about to give back the gains of the past couple days at the open. An RBD, certainly...


Um, you were saying...?
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguards Life Strategy Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 925

Re: Vanguards Life Strategy Funds

My thought is that you are proposing giving up some diversification for reasons you have not made clear.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Nov 08, 2016 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bill Bernstein Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 25
Views: 2338

Re: Bill Bernstein Three Fund Portfolio

You should not be setting your AA based only upon back-testing.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Nov 07, 2016 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can Bank Change CD Terms Mid-Stream?
Replies: 40
Views: 3235

Re: Can Bank Change CD Terms Mid-Stream?

All, I reached a bank representative this morning. Her English was terrible, but she indicated that she has been getting many calls and visits from concerned customers, but that (although the wording indeed is ambiguous) there is no change to early withdrawal penalty for existing CD's. OK, so just ...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Nov 07, 2016 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can Bank Change CD Terms Mid-Stream?
Replies: 40
Views: 3235

Re: Can Bank Change CD Terms Mid-Stream?

Nisi,

Wouldn't exactly call you a stranger after all of these years.

Thanks for the suggestion. They have agreed to email me a letter verifying the early withdrawal penalties for my two CD's.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can Bank Change CD Terms Mid-Stream?
Replies: 40
Views: 3235

Re: Can Bank Change CD Terms Mid-Stream?

All,

I reached a bank representative this morning. Her English was terrible, but she indicated that she has been getting many calls and visits from concerned customers, but that (although the wording indeed is ambiguous) there is no change to early withdrawal penalty for existing CD's.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Nov 06, 2016 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can Bank Change CD Terms Mid-Stream?
Replies: 40
Views: 3235

Re: Can Bank Change CD Terms Mid-Stream?

I plan to call the bank tomorrow to discuss. I shall report back. You will be in a better position if you see whether you can find and read the terms and conditions between now and making your call. When I purchased the CD, they gave me a single sheet of paper (more like cardboard) that described t...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Nov 06, 2016 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sister scammed online, several $K - not sure what to advise
Replies: 68
Views: 5616

Re: Sister scammed online, several $K - not sure what to advise

I don't think they will laugh but there may be nothing they can do. My guess is the story about the son being killed is true but applies to someone else. Scammers can be pretty creative. The lesson here is never loan money to anyone - period.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Nov 06, 2016 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can Bank Change CD Terms Mid-Stream?
Replies: 40
Views: 3235

Re: Can Bank Change CD Terms Mid-Stream?

I plan to call the bank tomorrow to discuss. I shall report back.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Nov 06, 2016 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can Bank Change CD Terms Mid-Stream?
Replies: 40
Views: 3235

Can Bank Change CD Terms Mid-Stream?

I have a couple of 5 year Bump-Up CD's from a local bank. One matures in 2020 and the other in 2021. The CD statements I received when I opened the CD's state that the penalty for early withdrawal is 6 months interest. I recently received a letter from the bank indicating that a number of fees and t...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Nov 06, 2016 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 current (over)valuation
Replies: 34
Views: 3945

Re: S&P500 current (over)valuation

It is true that the market going nowhere is a possibility. But (i) the bigger the overvaluation the longer the sideways move to absorb it, (ii) markets tend to overreact so a smooth landing would be unusual and (iii) history may show that in such and such circumstances the market always subsequentl...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 05, 2016 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we naive to expect historical returns from indexing?
Replies: 28
Views: 4103

Re: Are we naive to expect historical returns from indexing?

So how do you get lots of money in the first place? Depends upon what you mean by "lots of money." Most people can have enough for a comfortable retirement by saving a reasonable fraction of their income each month and investing it prudently. I don't think that speculating about the futur...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which state to move for milder weather
Replies: 104
Views: 9807

Re: Which state to move for milder weather

Remember that milder weather means nastier bugs for longer time periods. I rather enjoy a bug-free period each year, even though I need to deal with some snow and ice.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Nov 04, 2016 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of a portfolio should be in international stocks ?
Replies: 101
Views: 6192

Re: What percentage of a portfolio should be in international stocks ?

orca91 wrote:I highly doubt Jack just shoots from the hip with this advice. Like he hasn't studied up or looked into it at all??


Sure, but other experts (such as Larry Swedroe) have looked at the same question and come to very different conclusions.

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