Search found 491 matches

by CULater
Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can I install and run two different hrblock tax programs on same computer?
Replies: 2
Views: 251

Can I install and run two different hrblock tax programs on same computer?

I'd like to download a second 2017 hrblock federal + state tax program on my mac and run it separately from the first download. Reason is that I need two different state programs and it is cheaper to download another Federal + State program than to download a second State program only. Is it possibl...
by CULater
Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block 2017 Tax Software $9.95 , State $14.95
Replies: 21
Views: 1723

Re: H&R Block 2017 Tax Software $9.95 , State $14.95

Is there any way to download a second Deluxe (Federal + State) on the same computer? I need to have two different state programs and it would be cheaper to download another Deluxe for 14.95 than buy an additional State for 39.95.
by CULater
Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions
Replies: 80
Views: 6849

Re: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions

Those measly bond yields are going to look like manna from Heaven when stocks are returning -25% pretty soon. :annoyed
by CULater
Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it look like a bubble to you?
Replies: 42
Views: 3508

Re: Does it look like a bubble to you?

No - it doesn't. It doesn't look like anything to me. Linear scale; short time frame; dubious methodology; agenda; etc. There's not enough information there for an objective person to draw any conclusion. Meanwhile, the post above which showed the graph with and without Venezuela... that was pretty...
by CULater
Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it look like a bubble to you?
Replies: 42
Views: 3508

Re: Does it look like a bubble to you?

It does to Goldman and to me too, so I'm edging toward the exit. Anyone want to join me? Has market timing worked for you in the past? It has never worked for me so I won't be joining you. Enjoy the trip. Who said I'm timing? I'm just adjusting my AA to reflect my low need and desire to take risk a...
by CULater
Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it look like a bubble to you?
Replies: 42
Views: 3508

Re: Does it look like a bubble to you?

Consider that the last time CAPE hit this level (32) in 1998, you would have missed the big runup in stocks over the next 2 years but would have ended up with a net zero compound return on stocks until 2003 (5 years). Same scenario could be playing out again. For those who don't need to play the gam...
by CULater
Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it look like a bubble to you?
Replies: 42
Views: 3508

Does it look like a bubble to you?

This is a chart of the value of all stocks in all companies in all countries, globally. It is, technically, the market cap of Planet Earth, and everyone who sees it does a double take. In just the last few months, total market cap has rocketed past $80 trillion and is heading steadily toward $100 t...
by CULater
Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple 60/40 allocation has beaten both Swensen's and Bernstein's portfolios since 1979
Replies: 4
Views: 798

Simple 60/40 allocation has beaten both Swensen's and Bernstein's portfolios since 1979

For most investors, the optimal portfolio strategy might also be the simplest one, but don’t expect experts to recommend it, says one author and financial adviser. It took a lot of time and research to come to the conclusion that simple portfolios not only perform well, but often deliver better ris...
by CULater
Mon Dec 04, 2017 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Craig Rowland not blogging anymore on Permanent Portfolio.
Replies: 30
Views: 4557

Re: Craig Rowland not blogging anymore on Permanent Portfolio.

Another problem with backtesting returns for the PP is the common failure to look at returns based on cost averaging, rather than lump sum. When you look at the 1975 to 2017 gold returns, the big gains occurred in the 1970s when an investor making annual investments would have had relatively little ...
by CULater
Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Craig Rowland not blogging anymore on Permanent Portfolio.
Replies: 30
Views: 4557

Re: Craig Rowland not blogging anymore on Permanent Portfolio.

People always made too big a deal out of the gold holding in the PP. If you eliminate the couple of years right after the dollar peg was dropped and the gold price could free-float, an allocation of 25% stocks + 75% intermediate treasuries did as well as the PP in terms of returns, SD, and drawdown...
by CULater
Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Craig Rowland not blogging anymore on Permanent Portfolio.
Replies: 30
Views: 4557

Re: Craig Rowland not blogging anymore on Permanent Portfolio.

People always made too big a deal out of the gold holding in the PP. If you eliminate the couple of years right after the dollar peg was dropped and the gold price could free-float, an allocation of 25% stocks + 75% intermediate treasuries did as well as the PP in terms of returns, SD, and drawdowns...
by CULater
Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which of these investments would you have wanted to hold?
Replies: 6
Views: 658

Re: Which of these investments would you have wanted to hold?

I think the point is that the order of periodic (e.g., monthly, annual) returns over a given time period changes our perception of risk, when in fact objective "risk" (as measured by standard deviation and average return) is exactly the same. One point here is that people commonly use statistical me...
by CULater
Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Craig Rowland not blogging anymore on Permanent Portfolio.
Replies: 30
Views: 4557

Re: Craig Rowland not blogging anymore on Permanent Portfolio.

Looks like he either let the domain lapse, or sold it to some boring SEO blogger who is trying to use its residual finance-related backlinks to promote listy generic ad-monetized content. Sad. Would have been nice if he'd at least left it up as an archive. Meanwhile, the 'never goes negative!' PP s...
by CULater
Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which of these investments would you have wanted to hold?
Replies: 6
Views: 658

Re: Which if these investments would you have wanted to hold?

It looks like the yellow return series was the least nerve rattling. The magenta return series seems pretty scary. But guess what? All three charts depict the same thing. All three have the same average return, the same standard deviation, and the same risk-adjusted return. The only difference is th...
by CULater
Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which of these investments would you have wanted to hold?
Replies: 6
Views: 658

Which of these investments would you have wanted to hold?

The following chart depicts the cumulative returns of three investments over a period of time. Which of the three would you have rather held? The correct answer is in the next post -- don't peek until you've made your choice. http://monevator.monevator.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/annua...
by CULater
Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't leave your mac unattended! It has zero security now.
Replies: 21
Views: 2858

Re: Don't leave your mac unattended! It has zero security now.

Just got a security update for my High Sierra that came with instructions to install it immediately. I suppose this was the fix.
by CULater
Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Honda CRV All Wheel Drive VS Front Wheel, Which One?
Replies: 74
Views: 5080

Re: Honda CRV All Wheel Drive VS Front Wheel, Which One?

Buy a FWD, save $1500, use $10 to buy an AWD sticker and put that on the back. See if you notice the difference with an actual AWD. :D
by CULater
Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?
Replies: 129
Views: 11265

Re: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?

Now that Vanguard is in the game, going forward, if factor funds underperform, investors will be faced with the dilemma of figuring out whether it is cyclical (keep investing more by rebalancing in) or "factors" are broken because of over-grazing. Most, including me, will end up eventually flinching...
by CULater
Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?
Replies: 129
Views: 11265

Re: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?

Just wondering -- who takes the other side of the trade on factor funds and why are they so dumb? Oh, I guess it's us market index fund investors...
by CULater
Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?
Replies: 129
Views: 11265

Re: Vanguard To Introduce First Actively Managed ETFs With Suite Of Factor Funds

Perhaps this can be labelled as the "death of factors" inflection point, as the hoards of Vanguadians begin madly skating toward where the puck was. Bozo lives!
by CULater
Sat Nov 25, 2017 9:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wifi speakers-SONOS vs Echo/Google Home
Replies: 30
Views: 2891

Re: Wifi speakers-SONOS vs Echo/Google Home

Sonos sound quality is not that great but their wifi and whole house setup is nice if that's what you want. Personally, I prefer a wired system in the living room with better speakers connected to the TV. I'd like to have a pair of speakers in the living room connected to the TV and also like to be...
by CULater
Sat Nov 25, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wifi speakers-SONOS vs Echo/Google Home
Replies: 30
Views: 2891

Re: Wifi speakers-SONOS vs Echo/Google Home

Do you need multiroom? I'm happy with my Sonos equipment, but if I were buying now I'd get a pair of powered bookshelf speakers and a Chromecast Audio. Why do you need powered bookshelf speakers; or do you if your speakers are connected to an amplifier? What speakers do you think are good and compa...
by CULater
Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Alternative to Sonos Play 1 Speaker?
Replies: 1
Views: 219

Alternative to Sonos Play 1 Speaker?

Sonos Play 1 currently selling for $149 Black Friday price. Have decided to go with Chromecast and a less expensive alternative speaker for streaming music. What's a good audio quality alternative to the Sonos Play 1 for about half the cost? I'd like to get a pair of bookshelf speakers for no more t...
by CULater
Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Black Friday Norton Security (buy now, activate later?)
Replies: 0
Views: 177

Black Friday Norton Security (buy now, activate later?)

Good price of $19.95 on Norton Security download now on Amazon, but I have 3 months left on existing subscription. The product info warns that activating new subscription will wipe out my existing subscription. Can I download the new Norton now, but wait 3 months to activate it? Wondering if someone...
by CULater
Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best vehicle for seniors?
Replies: 73
Views: 5809

Re: Best vehicle for seniors?

Outback is a wagon. Therefore, Outback for seniors.
by CULater
Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 9575

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

I repeat my previous query: if your "factor black box" doesn't work for a couple of years, how do you know if it's broken or if it's temporarily out of favor; and whether to get out or buy more by rebalancing? I just don't think you know without drinking more of the koolaid. Sounds like a real chall...
by CULater
Wed Nov 22, 2017 9:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Honda CR-V vs Subaru Outback
Replies: 24
Views: 2600

Re: Honda CR-V vs Subaru Outback

Only thing is the current RAV4 was introduced in 2013, so it's a little long-toothed. Me, I'd either wait in the next one or get the newly re-designed CRV. I always recommend that people avoid the first year or two after a re-design; the last year(s) of a design generation are usually the most reli...
by CULater
Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Honda CR-V vs Subaru Outback
Replies: 24
Views: 2600

Re: Honda CR-V vs Subaru Outback

Only thing is the current RAV4 was introduced in 2013, so it's a little long-toothed. Me, I'd either wait in the next one or get the newly re-designed CRV.
by CULater
Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dave Ramsey says don't use credit cards, even if you pay them off
Replies: 221
Views: 13882

Re: Dave Ramsey says don't use credit cards, even if you pay them off

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time and make a bunch of money while you're doing it" ~ Dave Ramsey
by CULater
Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 9575

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

Factor investing seems to come a lot closer to "black box" investing. Swensen's recent comments seem relevant: And if I don’t know what’s in the black box, and there’s underperformance, I don’t know if the black box is broken or if it’s out of favor. And if it’s broken, you want to stop. And if it’s...
by CULater
Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Asset location in retirement (stocks)?
Replies: 9
Views: 807

Asset location in retirement (stocks)?

Retired and I currently have my stock allocation in my Roth IRA. My reasoning was that equity returns could grow untaxed. However, the downside is that I could have negative equity returns that would deplete Roth assets, and that maybe I'm better off to only hold safer income-producing assets in the...
by CULater
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller is 'concerned' after lowest sentiment data readings in over 16 years
Replies: 8
Views: 2106

Re: Shiller is 'concerned' after lowest sentiment data readings in over 16 years

Let's see now... over 16 years ago, something happened. Trying to remember.... Oh, now it's coming back... There was like a mega market crash around that time wasn't there? I don't think that could happen again. Oh wait, it did happen again in 2008. But that couldn't happen again...
by CULater
Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller is 'concerned' after lowest sentiment data readings in over 16 years
Replies: 8
Views: 2106

Shiller is 'concerned' after lowest sentiment data readings in over 16 years

In Shiller's way of thinking, stock bear markets are likely occur when (1) the market is overpriced, and (2) investors think it is overpriced and are poised for the exit. He feels these conditions are starting to unfold, but he says he's not yet ready to pull the plug: "I'm concerned. It's not just ...
by CULater
Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block Software
Replies: 123
Views: 9632

Re: H&R Block Software

If you recently purchased the 2017 program based on an email received from them saying it's their best price and there's a lower price shown in the OP's link, call them (say "representative") to get a refund. You may have to wait for a while on the phone before getting to the rep. I also had issues...
by CULater
Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive investing is a 'chaotic system' that could be dangerous?
Replies: 20
Views: 1829

Re: Passive investing is a 'chaotic system' that could be dangerous?

“The problem is that if you are talking about passive indexing, that is something that is really free-riding on other people’s work,” he said. “So people say, ‘I’m not going to try to beat the market. The market is all-knowing.’ But how in the world can the market be all-knowing, if nobody is tryin...
by CULater
Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a new smartphone as a surprise gift
Replies: 8
Views: 819

Buying a new smartphone as a surprise gift

I'd like to surprise someone with a new iPhone for their birthday. They are on Verizon with an old flip phone. I'm interested in scoring a deal on an iPhone SE for less than $200 that can be used with the existing Verizon account (she doesn't want to change to a new carrier or phone number). How can...
by CULater
Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6365

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I think that would be silly. No one should bet against the U.S. Which country do you think has accounted for the bulk of genuine business innovation in the last decade? Which do you think will account for the bulk of genuine business innovation going forward? +1 If I take this statement to mean any...
by CULater
Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block Software
Replies: 123
Views: 9632

Re: H&R Block Software

Purchased MAC version and had a glitch when I clicked on the "Download" button, nothing happened. I went to the confirmation email and clicked on the Download link and that worked. Just passing that along to others.
by CULater
Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block Software
Replies: 123
Views: 9632

Re: H&R Block Software

What is the extended download service?
by CULater
Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6365

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

The authors are suggesting only a 27% allocation to stocks, which projects about 10% annualized SD in returns, with the rest of portfolio in other investments. Not sure I'd want all 27% in non-U.S. stocks only, but I don't think it would be completely bonkers with such a small allocation; especially...
by CULater
Sat Nov 11, 2017 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much does diligent rebalancing add to a portfolio?
Replies: 35
Views: 2398

Re: How much does diligent rebalancing add to a portfolio?

Mathematically, rebalancing reduces terminal wealth by neutralizing the effect of compounding within the portfolio. It reduces the impact of compounded gains from the highest returning assets and the impact of reverse compounding on the lowest returning assets. As such, it narrows the distribution o...
by CULater
Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Blanchett: Liability Driven Investing Misapplied
Replies: 16
Views: 1312

Re: David Blanchett: Liability Driven Investing Misapplied

Thanks BobK. Merton's approach makes a lot more sense to me than the OP's linked article, which is far too convoluted and all wrapped up with Monte Carlo simulations and statistical abstractions. Gee, maybe good for a financial advisor who wants to obfuscate clients and impress them but certainly no...
by CULater
Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Blanchett: Liability Driven Investing Misapplied
Replies: 16
Views: 1312

Re: David Blanchett: Liability Driven Investing Misapplied

Nothing to tricky or difficult to understand about Liability Based Investing, IMO. Let's not make this overly complicated. The idea is to spend some time and effort to determine what one's financial "liabilities" are, both present and possible future liabilities. A liability is defined as a financia...
by CULater
Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6365

Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

According to Rob Arnott's group, Research Affiliates, you shouldn't own any U.S. stocks at all right now: Let’s take yet a deeper dive into the composition of 10%-volatility efficient portfolio, which at first glance may appear relatively benign to most investors. In particular, let’s look at the eq...
by CULater
Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Switching from Medicare Advantage (Kaiser) to Medicare Part F
Replies: 11
Views: 589

Re: Switching from Medicare Advantage (Kaiser) to Medicare Part F

Not hard unless you have pre-existing conditions. Then your supplement premiums will be much higher, or you won't survive underwriting. The reason I decided to avoid Medicare Advantage plans forever.
by CULater
Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improved returns from rebalancing asset allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 581

Re: Improved returns from rebalancing asset allocation

Jack doesn't think rebalancing makes any difference, but it probably doesn't hurt either, so do it if it helps you sleep better. Myself, I don't like the idea of selling bonds to buy stocks when the stock market is tanking and your ideology is to "rebalance." There is the odd chance that you end up ...
by CULater
Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY investigation of TIAA
Replies: 2
Views: 950

Re: NY investigation of TIAA

As I posted recently, I just opened a new IRA account with TIAA and I was immediately email bombed with messages to fund my IRA. E-mails were coming one after the other by the dozens. I also have received several recent emails from my TIAA "advisor" promoting something or other having to do with buy...