Search found 159 matches

by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat May 26, 2018 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Available 2018 tax estimator
Replies: 22
Views: 3619

Re: Best Available 2018 tax estimator

For those with simple tax situations, this site is pretty straightforward. You have to do your own accounting for things like the 401k, Health Savings Account, etc. --> But that's a simple subtraction from Wages/Other Taxable Income for me.

https://www.olt.com/main/home/taxestimator.asp
by BuyAndHoldOn
Mon Apr 23, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [essay] The Limits of Theory
Replies: 10
Views: 988

[essay] The Limits of Theory

http://www.eipny.com/white-papers/the-limits-of-theory/ PDF: http://www.eipny.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/The-Limits-of-Theory_FINAL.pdf Heard about this on the Grant's Interest Rate Observer podcast. It's a discussion of Modern Portfolio Theory, indexing, and probably other things (haven't read ...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 6192

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

but why are they more corrupt or dishonest than developed countries? If you have to ask the question, you shouldn't be invested in Russia. you mean that Russians are much more dishonest (assuming that's possible) than say Madoff or Kenneth Lay? I am hoping that you are being rhetorical and the flaw...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Mon Apr 16, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 6192

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

decisions based on tips and fads rather than on thoughtful, quantified evaluation of businesses ; Well investing in Russia is supported by a pretty simple quantitative argument as far as I understand : Russia has a CAPE of about 6 and a P/E of 7, so you will earn 1$/year for every 6-7 $ you invest ...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Apr 15, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Max % of tax exempt bonds in portfolio?
Replies: 10
Views: 885

Re: Max % of tax exempt bonds in portfolio?

What are your concerns if you went with the Maximum Muni allocation you are considering? I ask because: Investment Grade municipal bonds have a very low rate of default, and [from what I hear/recall reading] most "defaults" still resulted in investors getting their money back. Determining Investment...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 6192

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

Please stay focused on the investing aspects. Opinions of the political process, corruption, etc. are off-topic. See: Non-actionable (Trolling) Topics If readers can't do anything with the content of a topic other than argue about it, it does not belong here. Examples include: US or world economic,...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: *A* yield curve has inverted
Replies: 3
Views: 1061

Re: *A* yield curve has inverted

I looked into this briefly when I had some time. I did not find anything beyond the Bloomberg article [above, original post] that was explanatory or informative.

If anyone knows anything else about the Fed Funds OIS yield curve and/or its inversion: Please post. Thanks!
by BuyAndHoldOn
Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 6192

Re: A good time [price wise] to buy Russian Stocks?

I can't say whether or not the market has properly priced in the risks of Russian corruption. But I certainly remember that in 1997 issues with Russian bonds brought down Long-Term Capital Management and nearly brought down the US financial system with it. If the Nobel laureates at Long-Term Capita...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 6192

A good time [price wise] to buy Russian Stocks?

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] Cheap Russian stocks are now even cheaper. So cheap; yet I worry I am being lied to and stolen from. Is that "priced in" - and now, with more negativity priced in, does that make Russian stocks more attractive? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/ar...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: *A* yield curve has inverted
Replies: 3
Views: 1061

*A* yield curve has inverted

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-08/bad-omen-for-markets-from-first-signs-of-yield-curve-inversion Should I sell all of my stocks today; or wait for the end of the week? I am actually not familiar with this section of the yield curve (OIS is new to me also). How much "value" does this...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risks of MLPs
Replies: 29
Views: 3661

Re: Risks of MLPs

Threads like these are what keep the Bogleheads forum so interesting and relevant :sharebeer

I too was wondering about MLPs, in light of their recent selloff/"better" valuations than other assets as of late.
by BuyAndHoldOn
Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help - transfer HSA; rollover 403(b) to IRA
Replies: 8
Views: 873

Re: Help - transfer HSA; rollover 403(b) to IRA

I think I am going to transfer the BoA HSA because: I would rather invest the cash that is being eaten up by fees.
by BuyAndHoldOn
Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding the meaning of CAPE
Replies: 8
Views: 986

Re: Understanding the meaning of CAPE

MotoTrojan and lack_ey: thank you for the responses. And I will take a look at the reference above; very helpful!
by BuyAndHoldOn
Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding the meaning of CAPE
Replies: 8
Views: 986

Understanding the meaning of CAPE

Has CAPE been discussed on here before? Only kidding, here is my question/topic. CAPE = the P/E ratio, where the E = 10 years/ 10-year average of earnings adjusted for inflation. The greatest value of CAPE is that it is "mean reverting": A high price paid for the the last-10 years of earnings [someh...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 29 year old looking for help with Asset Allocation [Australia]
Replies: 6
Views: 656

Re: 29 year old looking for help with Asset Allocation [Australia]

So far this is the plan: Bonds: 10% Property REIT: 10% Australian Shares: 28% International Shares: 52% To break this down further: Australian Bond Index ETF: 2.5% Global Bond Index ETF: 2.5% Australian Corporate Bonds Index ETF: 2.5% Global Corporate Bonds Index ETF: 2.5% Australian Property REIT:...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: An HSA Account as an Investment Vehicle
Replies: 21
Views: 1700

Re: An HSA Account as an Investment Vehicle

Like a 401k, my employer will put in money if I choose an HSA/lower cost High Deductible plan. I don't like the fees or the mandatory cash holding in *both* of my HSAs, but that free money from my employer [current and previous] put me over the edge. The HSAs have access to good investment options b...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond ETF vs Treas
Replies: 23
Views: 2140

Re: Bond ETF vs Treas

But dopes it matter? If you have a 10 year that yields 2.5% and rates go to 2.75%, the value of your bond is impaired. If you sell it before maturity, you get less. If you choose to hold it, the interest rate you earn is impaired (less than the current rate). You can sell it for less than par and b...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for Stock Allocation Article - Home Bias and Currency Risk
Replies: 4
Views: 471

Re: Looking for Stock Allocation Article - Home Bias and Currency Risk

I didn't find the precise numbers upon initial search. Saw references to David Swenson of Yale in a few places.

What is your home country? (I am assuming non-US, or else Global equities already keep a fair amount in your home currency).
by BuyAndHoldOn
Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stock inflows over the past 12 months: $25 billion. Taxable bond inflows: $392 billion
Replies: 18
Views: 3034

Re: U.S. stock inflows over the past 12 months: $25 billion. Taxable bond inflows: $392 billion

Investors are cutting their exposure to equities, and they have been for years. How is this possible? Every share sold is a share bought. Is it a buyback phenomenon? Is it that there are less equity investors but larger holdings per individual? How does this concept of "flows" really work? I heard ...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Feb 25, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs says...
Replies: 13
Views: 1975

Re: Goldman Sachs says...

The statement is a prediction of what would happen were interest rates to rise to a certain level. The important point not about a 4.5% rate but that under certain conditions bonds and stocks can go down together. This means that under certain conditions, bonds and stocks may not provide diversific...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 36
Views: 6742

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

Have not read the article but what happened in the 1950 to 1980 period? Rates were on an upward path back then. Quite different from 1980 to 2018. Let's face it, we don't know what the rate path will be for the next 5 years. Nope, we sure don't. I bought shorter-term bonds (VMLTX) in 2014 to prepar...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: short-term car fund in tax-exempt munis or high interest savings account
Replies: 7
Views: 356

Re: short-term car fund in tax-exempt munis or high interest savings account

Savings Account Protection of principal. J🌺 ^^^This. When I saw the thread title, I was thinking the purchase would be 2-5 years away. That would be more in line with a short-term Muni fund. Ideally, one aligns the duration/period of investment with the needed expenditure. I would line up a ~4-5 ye...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE 7 vs CAPE 10
Replies: 5
Views: 773

CAPE 7 vs CAPE 10

Since the Financial Crisis [potentially] skews the CAPE 10 metric, would a CAPE 7 (or 8) be useful for comparison? I am thinking of the US but this could apply to other countries as well. I’ve seen the CAPE ratio formula somewhere; and Schiller posts his data sets - so this seems doable. http://www....
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yields Spreads and the Economy
Replies: 8
Views: 983

Re: Yields Spreads and the Economy

#1, thank you to all respondents to this thread. Your insights are appreciated!

#2: lack_ey: After looking at that Fed series, I think the Yield Spread(s) is *at best* a lagging or current indicator of economic conditions. Thank you for pointing that out.

Turns out nobody has a crystal ball....
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yields Spreads and the Economy
Replies: 8
Views: 983

Yields Spreads and the Economy

Anyone follow this trend? Like the yield curve inversion, the "spread" (difference in yield) between US treasuries and non-Investment grade corporations can be an indicator (leading?) of the economy. I am not sure how well this works globally; I am only familiar with the U.S. in this regard. In case...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Feb 17, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 8382

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

The bogglehead ideal would be an index fund that efficiently captures all global economic growth. The problem is, that doesn't exist. Most international investors really just add Europe, Japan, and maybe Korea to their portfolios. Nothing wrong with that per-se, but they tend to be strongly correla...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Feb 17, 2018 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 36
Views: 6742

Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-investors-shouldnt-panic-over-falling-bond-prices-2018-02-13 This is the main point “Since 1993, the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Index, dominated by government and investment-grade corporate bonds, fell 1.2% on average during months when yields increased by ...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434490

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Other than the [large] investors covering their losses on volatility instruments*: Why would anyone be SELLING their stocks right now? Or bonds, for that matter? You could surely wait for a better price! Or have sold a few weeks ago! (Which I thought about doing [with a position I am looking to unlo...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Japanese Stocks Cheap?
Replies: 30
Views: 3264

Re: Are Japanese Stocks Cheap?

https://www.starcapital.de/en/research/stock-market-valuation/ According to CAPE , Japan is not cheap. I would rather this is *not* the case, as they are the biggest holding in the Total International fund(s) I invest in. Might be due to such low, even negative inflation (deflation)? https://www.inv...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recovering from a "draw down" on 7-10 year US Treasuries
Replies: 15
Views: 1761

Re: Recovering from a "draw down" on 7-10 year US Treasuries

Here's a previous discussion on roll return: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=205138 Thanks again. I [think I] understand the concept of the Roll Yield; and that works better the steeper the yield curve is [my understanding]. The roll yield could be a factor with the 7-year bonds as...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recovering from a "draw down" on 7-10 year US Treasuries
Replies: 15
Views: 1761

Re: Recovering from a "draw down" on 7-10 year US Treasuries

Since bonds change their duration each year + the fund picks up new issuances, wouldn't the fund remove bonds each year and pick up new ones, allowing it to adapt to changing interest rates more quickly? Does the effective duration result from the fund having to sell (or whatever) its bonds once th...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Feb 04, 2018 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recovering from a "draw down" on 7-10 year US Treasuries
Replies: 15
Views: 1761

Recovering from a "draw down" on 7-10 year US Treasuries

Greetings, I am looking at the iShares 7-10 year US Treasury ETF *IEF*. The duration is ~7.8 years, give or take. My question is: Is the effective duration a good way to measure the draw down risk of this fund? I.e., should NAV draw downs be considered in the context of how long the fund holds onto ...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When diversification doesn’t work
Replies: 33
Views: 2897

Re: When diversification doesn’t work

I had been putting cash to work this month, when suddenly I realized: Maybe cash is the only stable thing at this moment :confused Some of the shortest of the short term bonds I bought didn't go down much, however. I just wish I hadn't been buying so much earlier in the month! And most of it was bon...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buy Low, Don't Sell
Replies: 38
Views: 5748

Re: Buy Low, Don't Sell

Good posts in this thread. And to the OP's point: Yes, buying into weakness is a good plan. And it is good to be prepared and willing to act in such situations. (And this assumes you are not *waiting* for market volatility on the downside before investing. Too many folks wait for a 15% pullback, onl...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD coming due, need advice
Replies: 6
Views: 1173

Re: CD coming due, need advice

Interest rates can be quite volatile. I actually posted a thread on that (Below). Meaning: Your bonds may or may not lose value going forward. Interest rates haven't been any easier to predict than the stock market, although I can definitely understand the cyclical and structure factors that will [e...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In the last 30 years, US Treasuries have not had negative returns Two Years in a Row
Replies: 1
Views: 372

In the last 30 years, US Treasuries have not had negative returns Two Years in a Row

In the last 30 years, US Treasuries have not had negative returns Two Years in a Row. This per Ira Jersey, the Bloomberg US Interest Rates strategist. For reference, the show is linked below - start listening at ~36:00 minutes in for context, the quote only takes about a minute to get to. https://ww...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Developed vs Emerging Markets
Replies: 12
Views: 1381

Re: Developed vs Emerging Markets

I'm 50 EM/50 DM. No problem with doing it cap weight but I believe that EM will offer greater diversification benefit to US equity and also greater expected long term returns than DM. EM have been more volatile historically but I tolerate volatility well. Experts disagree on these issues. Each to h...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blood in the water- buying?
Replies: 117
Views: 16939

Re: Blood in the water- buying?

You've never experienced a bear market, have you? This could be merely a correction, or there could be quite a bit worse to come. Correction is normally defined as at least a 10% drop. In the summer of 2007 markets had been weak, there had been a lot of bad news. I shrewdly bought several ETFs. I n...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors Linked To Business Cycles
Replies: 15
Views: 1418

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors Linked To Business Cycles

These articles are always interesting. To me, they reinforce the need to buy and hold. What you have bought - if it is a good investment - will do well, but it may not show up on paper all the time. That Market Beta basically means you could hold inversely correlated bonds [to stocks/the economic cy...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Today was a Really Bad Day
Replies: 278
Views: 48403

Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

Given the drop in the market today, I think it's worthwhile to revive this thread just to remind everyone that while fear is definitely present, over the long-term, the market has still marched upward. Sometimes it stumbles and falls, but it has always gotten back up and kept on going. P.S. I find ...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?
Replies: 145
Views: 13599

Re: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?

This Howard Marks memo probably resonates with a lot of people on this forum. Only to the point that Bogle would say "nobody knows nothing". We have to rightfully throw Marks under the bus according to Bogle's adage. Let's not forget Oakmark, the firm where Marks works has only $100B. Vanguard has ...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is holding bonds in taxable right for me?
Replies: 8
Views: 1038

Re: Is holding bonds in taxable right for me?

I currently hold most of my bonds in taxable. Some are taxable bonds, for diversification and competitive after-tax yieds compared with Munis. But you are in a much higher tax state and higher Federal tax bracket than I am. I think you can hold ~some taxable bonds (say, US Treasuries) to feel divers...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434490

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Here's a question for all those who have been lamenting about not wanting to invest in stocks "at all time highs." Now that the market has retreated a little, will you now feel better about buying into it? My end-of-jan 401k contributions just purchased shares on friday. I feel good about it. Same ...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?
Replies: 145
Views: 13599

Re: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?

This Howard Marks memo probably resonates with a lot of people on this forum.

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights ... arks-memos

^^ once that link changes (when this is no longer the "current" memo): The date [for the memo] is January 23, 2018.
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Jan 27, 2018 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stock inflows over the past 12 months: $25 billion. Taxable bond inflows: $392 billion
Replies: 18
Views: 3034

U.S. stock inflows over the past 12 months: $25 billion. Taxable bond inflows: $392 billion

https://www.fidelity.com/insights/markets-economy/bonds-stocks-funds-shift “ In general there are two big trends: Investors are rebalancing from stocks into bonds, and within stocks, they’re rebalancing from U.S. to international equity. Based on performance, this isn’t normally what you’d see, and ...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller: Stock Market Like 1928
Replies: 57
Views: 6942

Re: Robert Shiller: Stock Market Like 1928

Irrational Exuberance...is this phase II coming ??? or is this just Noise. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robert-shiller-stock-market-today-similar-stock-market-1928-204253341.html Meh. Even if today's market is actually like 1928, the real question is will next year's market be like 1929? And the ...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?
Replies: 379
Views: 63778

Re: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?

Don't sell stocks. Don't despair. In fact, buy more stocks. Things will eventually turn around, and if they don't, everybody else is effed anyway, so you won't be alone. Also, no need to buy at the bottom, you can also buy on the way down, because eventually that will look like a smart decision on ...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?
Replies: 379
Views: 63778

Re: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?

Biggest lesson for me was the cliche: be prepared. Have enough safe savings that you can ride out potential job loss/market turmoil for an extended period of time. ==> not saying it is easy, and "enough" is a moving target (at least for me). I would rather hold more bonds/cash-like assets than risk ...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting LATE for retirement
Replies: 31
Views: 2761

Re: Starting LATE for retirement

Do bonds go down when stock market is up? The bond's trading price (market value) going down is related to either "market" interest rates or the credit risk associated with the bond. Could be other factors but those are the two big ones [that I know of]. (not that you need more people telling you w...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Lessons From 2017
Replies: 26
Views: 5712

Re: Larry Swedroe: Lessons From 2017

While there is a lot to agree with here, I think many Bogleheads had no new lessons to learn because we knew all of this in 2016, and 2015, and...... Stay the course, nobody knows nothing, there's nothing new under the Sun, etc. etc. :sharebeer I think you are right. Also: I found the articles very...