Search found 112 matches

by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?
Replies: 367
Views: 58407

Re: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?

Biggest lesson for me was the cliche: be prepared. Have enough safe savings that you can ride out potential job loss/market turmoil for an extended period of time. ==> not saying it is easy, and "enough" is a moving target (at least for me). I would rather hold more bonds/cash-like assets than risk ...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting LATE for retirement
Replies: 31
Views: 2248

Re: Starting LATE for retirement

Do bonds go down when stock market is up? The bond's trading price (market value) going down is related to either "market" interest rates or the credit risk associated with the bond. Could be other factors but those are the two big ones [that I know of]. (not that you need more people telling you w...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Lessons From 2017
Replies: 25
Views: 4916

Re: Larry Swedroe: Lessons From 2017

While there is a lot to agree with here, I think many Bogleheads had no new lessons to learn because we knew all of this in 2016, and 2015, and...... Stay the course, nobody knows nothing, there's nothing new under the Sun, etc. etc. :sharebeer I think you are right. Also: I found the articles very...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your U.S. : International ratio?
Replies: 104
Views: 25745

Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

70/30, moving towards 50/50 longer term. My contributions have been 50/50 or even greater for International vs. US over the last 12-18 months.

What keeps me around 70% US is that the US keeps performing well (!) and I bought some individual US stocks....
by BuyAndHoldOn
Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 119
Views: 9670

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

Could CAPE improve (go down) once we are 10 +years removed from the Financial Crisis? Maybe by some time in 2019? Just thinking optimistically: Maybe earnings continue to go up in the US, and the Skew caused by late 2008/early 2009 leaves the statistics, and CAPE reaches more normal levels. (At leas...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyway to compare metrics of today w stock bubble in 2000
Replies: 26
Views: 2264

Re: Anyway to compare metrics of today w stock bubble in 2000

I'm considering buying two year Treasuries that yield 2%. Makes sense, that is the end of the curve that has moved up the most. I will be buying some treasuries too. Let's face it: the market is expensive, and I bet I am not the only one who is a little underweight bonds/safer assets at the moment....
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adding 200k to Portfolio, don't want boring old VTSAX again -your criticism, suggestion for a little extra risk?
Replies: 39
Views: 4324

Re: Adding 200k to Portfolio, don't want boring old VTSAX again -your criticism, suggestion for a little extra risk?

It would be nice if that $200,000 WAS 5% of the OP's $4M total portfolio! Precisely. Why gamble? 3-fund (or a variation) has plenty of risk, depending on how much equity exposure you have. In 1-2 years I hope people will still be so risk seeking! That will mean the [global] economy and markets have...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2452

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

Many commodities (oil, industrial metals, even gold) are enjoying a resurgences in price. Spot prices are above the futures prices ("backwardation"), which creates positive "roll yield". Trouble is: How long it will continue? I have read industrial metals are a good bet for this year. But are they a...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 119
Views: 9670

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

Threads like this - with the quality insights and sources - are why I frequent this forum. This thread reminded me of another thread I saw a few years ago. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=160895 Oh, I'm definitely timing. And I'm definitely tinkering. I thought of that thread b...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recessions in the USA (list) - Where are we now? Actionable Steps?
Replies: 31
Views: 2487

Re: Recessions in the USA (list) - Where are we now? Actionable Steps?

These things (recessions, bear markets in equities) are not easy to predict. The Slow Expansion we (in the US) are in shows signs of continuation, even as some financial market metrics appear more late cycle (sentiment, US stock valuations). A drop in either of those may not be part of a broader rec...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AAII Sentiment
Replies: 0
Views: 154

AAII Sentiment

Any market timers on here? Mostly kidding, but I find the AAII Sentiment measures to be interesting. I have heard discussion that the sentiment indicators have value *at extremes* in sentiment/markets. This was a free article. http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism jumpe...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?
Replies: 27
Views: 2545

Re: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?

I appreciate the continued dialogue above ^^^. I heard the following points in the last ~5 minutes of the show linked below: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2018-01-04/surveillance-global-growth-isn-t-sustainable-silvia-says 1. As credit/financial conditions "tighten" - such as, when short term...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?
Replies: 27
Views: 2545

Re: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?

Here is what the NY Fed makes of the Yield Curve (Updated 03-Jan-2018)

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary ... ob_Rec.pdf
by BuyAndHoldOn
Mon Jan 01, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Company Stock - % in portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 1089

Re: Company Stock - % in portfolio

RSU = restricted stock units? On your questions, here are my thoughts. 1. I like bonds - particularly government bonds, ala investment-grade Munis, Treasuries, Agency MBS, etc. - for diversification*. This year, I plan to buy some munis (ticker MUB) and maybe some shorter-term treasuries (Ticker SHY...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: View historic valuation metrics
Replies: 3
Views: 369

View historic valuation metrics

Hello, Is there a place to view historic valuation metrics for a fund - like Price/Book, Price/Earnings, etc.? I want to see how valuation metrics have changed over time; e.g., what was the fund's Price/Book in 2015 vs, 2016 vs. today. Context more broadly is that I am want to see how an emerging ma...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?
Replies: 27
Views: 2545

Re: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?

Thank you for the responses, all. The different answers/perspectives are helpful.

lack_ey: Special thanks for bringing up the term premium.
by BuyAndHoldOn
Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?
Replies: 27
Views: 2545

Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?

Hello, My questions are: Why does the yield curve invert? If short term rates are higher than long-term rates, wouldn't you want to "lock in" the HIGHER rates that are available with less duration? * Is this a play for Capital Gains, due to the price changes of longer duration bonds when interest ra...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Mon Dec 25, 2017 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Investing without knowing governance/accounting details
Replies: 8
Views: 647

International Investing without knowing governance/accounting details

Merry Christmas Bogleheads, I have been investing in international equities (including EM) for a few years now. But I don't *really* know how the International accounting and governance standards compare with US standards. I know *conceptually* about IFRS vs. U.S. GAAP, and generally how U.S. corpor...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you have trouble standing firm on your asset allocation?
Replies: 45
Views: 3744

Re: Do you have trouble standing firm on your asset allocation?

I tinker as I learn more. I started buying more international stocks a few years ago, for instance, once I learned more and felt that was beneficial. I have to feel confident in something to buy and hold.
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 4737

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

Bitcoin is used more for hoarding than for transacting. I question that it has real value.

I know about how useful Blockchain technology could be, but I don't know if "crypto" currencies are a part of that value.
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 180
Views: 17141

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Similar to Tesla, bitcoins are backed by the full faith and credit of investor hype, thus its impossible to call a top. /heavy sarcasm Surely you agree Tesla has more value than Bitcoin? :happy If Tesla traded at a reasonable (Whatever that means) valuation, people would talk about how undervalued ...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in "Frontier" Markets
Replies: 22
Views: 1631

Investing in "Frontier" Markets

Greetings, I am interested in the Frontier Market(s) space. What are the best resources for learning more about this? 'Learning more' could constitute awareness about the Frontier Markets' economies, specific issues like governance and accounting rules; or general things like finance/portfolio theor...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 28 Years Old: In the current market, what % into bonds?
Replies: 56
Views: 3639

Re: 28 Years Old: In the current market, what % into bonds?

I haven't read all the posts in this thread, I am just sharing my approach to this topic. I don't worry about the % I have in Bonds/cash type instruments. I use bonds for savings - either for emergencies, or potential expenditures in the future. If all goes well, bonds will make up a smaller and sma...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018
Replies: 33
Views: 3457

Re: Vanguard's 2018 Outlook has extremely low expected returns

I enjoy reading these forecasts. I also read a lot of non-Boglehead approved "speculative" forecasts about what trading strategies are expected to work going forward. Most of what I have read for 2018 is: Inflation may pick up, expect more rate increases/"quantitative tightening" in the US and even ...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 222
Views: 37372

Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!

Bogleheads - I started this thread almost 4 years ago and it has provided a wealth of information, strategies, and perspective. I am curious, since I started this thread, if thoughts and perspectives have evolved or changed regarding International Bonds as an asset class and the strategy as recomme...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you have any guilty pleasure investments?
Replies: 53
Views: 3181

Re: Do you have any guilty pleasure investments?

I guess anything beyond Total Stock Market(s)? REITs/Real Estate - US and Intl, Small Cap Value, Vanguard Dividend Growth, Emerging Markets, and potentially some interesting bond choices if there is volatility and I think something is worth buying. Most of my portfolio is 3-Fund, or attempting to ap...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks always in taxable for tax efficient investing?
Replies: 101
Views: 7057

Re: Stocks always in taxable for tax efficient investing?

I'm beginning to question the rule of thumb that stocks should always be in taxable account. There is no such rule of thumb. I don't know where people are getting this idea...you are certainly not the first. If it is from our Wiki page, it needs to be edited. The rule of thumb is more like... "Fill...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Choosing a Fidelity Bond Index Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1146

Re: Help Choosing a Fidelity Bond Index Fund

I *believe* the stars from morningstar are indicative of the recent performance, compared to comparable funds. A passive, "total bond" type of fund would usually be at 3 stars. (Passive in bonds doesn't provide a lot of returns; just a lot of stability). --> although I guess you could go out on the ...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 10085

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

For those who didn't connect the Housing Bubble (2007 into 2008 crash) to the Financial Crisis: I don't blame you. You would *also* have to have known that the "CDOs" containing subprime mortgages, along with other types of illiquid assets, were being used to *create* tremendous liquidity and levera...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Fri Nov 24, 2017 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?
Replies: 101
Views: 9155

Re: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?

If you hold less than 40% international then you are underweighting the global market cap and tilting to the US. If you do this then you are saying that you know more than all the other investment dollars in the world. Overall a fair point, but (As I am sure you know) the situation is more nuanced....
by BuyAndHoldOn
Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?
Replies: 101
Views: 9155

Re: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?

You could try searching the forum and seeing the 10,000 previous threads of the topic of international investing. Good idea. B/c international markets are “cheaper” and forecast to have better returns in near future. Of course nobody knows what will happen. That is the prevailing wisdom right now a...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any need for professional tax preparer?
Replies: 14
Views: 1511

Re: Any need for professional tax preparer?

I think learning to do taxes is a worthwhile endeavor. And not nearly as hard or scary as it can be depicted as. (Remember: The tax forms and form instructions can be found online, for free). For *most* individuals: Paying a tax professional is like hiring a personal trainer, financial adviser, etc....
by BuyAndHoldOn
Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Cramer doesn’t beat the market
Replies: 96
Views: 14034

Re: Jim Cramer doesn’t beat the market

I like Jim Cramer. He is worth listening to because he did run a hedge fund and knows a lot about the market. A very smart and entertaining guy to listen to. I also like him because he is so human, he lets it all hang out, his strengths and faults are there for everyone to see. You can listen and l...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kass: Is This the End of Warren Buffett?
Replies: 138
Views: 23835

Re: Kass: Is This the End of Warren Buffett?

I hear Doug Kass on the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast from time to time. He talks a bearish game and says that he has shorted Amazon (!) and other high fliers. If he is active with just a small portion of his investments, I suspect he has ridden the bull up like the rest of us. I suspect he will be...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 162
Views: 17197

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Well this thread really blew up, thank you everyone for the comments. I got busy for a couple of days and came back and found 3 pages of replies. I see that I'm probably the only one here that has my viewpoint, which is ok, I came here for discussion and other viewpoints. However I don't think my q...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Bank 1 Year CD now 1.65% with 25,000 Minimum
Replies: 10
Views: 2178

Re: Ally Bank 1 Year CD now 1.65% with 25,000 Minimum

Do you know the 1 year T-Bill rate is about the same now? And you get a state tax exemption. ^^^^ 5-Year T-Bill is above 2% now also. Some have speculated that because the Fed has a lot of 5-year treasuries on their balance sheet, as they discontinue their reinvestment: 5-Year yields will rise a bi...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Flight to Quality:” the old way of thinking?
Replies: 16
Views: 1643

Re: “Flight to Safety:” the old way of thinking?

@ simplesauce: I think posting these topics on Bogleheads is fine, but a deeper analysis would come from other sources. --> e.g., blogs by professorial types and/or research topics you can read from your brokerage. Or actual academic research. Etc. I know you have probably done some research already...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with Cash right now
Replies: 13
Views: 1130

Re: What to do with Cash right now

The easy answer is to say: Search this forum, and look at prior discussions on this topic. Is it "really different this time" regarding markets and when to invest? The easiest choice is to pay off the debt. I forget: Can you deduct student loan interest on the tax return? Another easy answer is to i...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Nov 04, 2017 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leading indicators [published] from the FED
Replies: 17
Views: 1215

Re: Leading indicators [published] from the FED

BTW, is a recession predicted by the absolute level of the index or the directionality of the change in the index? Both have meaning, but the *Absolute Level* is the predictor of an *eventual* recession (at least regarding the Yield Curve Inversion; e.g., the 10 yr less 3-month TBills). I believe t...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leading indicators [published] from the FED
Replies: 17
Views: 1215

Re: Leading indicators [published] from the FED

Many thanks to the posters in this thread, I have appreciated the thoughts and perspective shared. :beer
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leading indicators [published] from the FED
Replies: 17
Views: 1215

Leading indicators [published] from the FED

Greetings, Someone showed me this "leading indicators" area on the FED's website. I have not yet dissected what is going into these numbers, but the *Trend* seems to be heading towards Economic...uh...bad times. (I am not overly concerned; I am just trying to learn about what I am looking at). https...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do I need bonds? (I'm 30)
Replies: 70
Views: 7062

Re: Why do I need bonds? (I'm 30)

I don't think bonds should ever be used if you know you can psychologically handle a downturn. But that's not a common opinion. I plan on having one to two years worth of expenses in CDs during retirement, the rest all equity. That's the closest I will get to bonds. *If you can Economically and Psy...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your asset allocation and why?
Replies: 176
Views: 17933

Re: What's your asset allocation and why?

Age 31, 32 in January. I don't know if I have an asset allocation. If/as my life changed, so would my investing plans. For money I keep invested for the long term : That is in equities. I aim to be around 60/40 US/International, including Emerging Markets. Maybe a slight tilt towards EM and smaller ...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Oct 07, 2017 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I keep my Stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 4130

Re: Should I keep my Stocks?

Thank you all for your opinions. All my individual stocks were bought when I was an ignorant Edward Jones sheep. I will list them below to help everyone understand my position. I am just trying to understand why EJ advisors recommend putting half of your money in mutual funds and half in individual...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Oct 07, 2017 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Length of bull market become more risky?
Replies: 15
Views: 1697

Re: Length of bull market become more risky?

I don't think so. Things can tread water for quite a while and after a number of years it will be the same as if there was no bull market. You know, market returns are 1% a year for 8 years. That would still be a bull market. What about markets that gain more than 10%+ a year? We are taught to ackn...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Growing old without kids or younger caring relatives
Replies: 106
Views: 20475

Re: Re:

I also agree that you can't hire someone to take care of you . Actually you can. Auntie said "You can't hire someone to care about you ." That's different. At some point: Either you can take care of yourself [with or without someone's help], or you can't. Plan accordingly. Be useful and [God willin...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I keep my Stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 4130

Re: Should I keep my Stocks?

These stocks may or may not be good investments. [obviously] none of us really know if you should sell your stocks. Do some research and decide for yourself --> do research on on asset allocation strategies, on the specific companies, the economy - etc.. You can keep some or all of the positions; th...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 7280

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

I have not been investing for very long; only been in the workforce since 2012. (Some day that will be a long time ago). Mostly I buy and hold and stick to an asset allocation. However: *I bought Energy (read: Oil & Natural Gas) stocks in the 2015 stock market downturn, only to see them plunge even ...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks
Replies: 46
Views: 5204

Re: Research Associates Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks

Research Associates, the home of Rob Arnott, has a very neat website that displays asset classes' forecasts (see reference below) which I often review since much of its equity forecasting is based on Shiller's PE10 which I find one of the most reliable long term valuation tools. What has caught my ...
by BuyAndHoldOn
Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The real impacts of passive investing
Replies: 8
Views: 2137

Re: The real impacts of passive investing

According to this WSJ author, passive investing *does* move the market value of small companies in a significant manner. The sheer volume of index purchasing makes up a greater % of small companies' market caps [as compared with larger publicly traded companies]. You can decides if that is meaningfu...