Search found 3312 matches

by BlueEars
Mon Apr 11, 2016 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappearing premiums!
Replies: 147
Views: 15918

Re: Disappearing premiums!

forget it
by BlueEars
Sat Apr 09, 2016 9:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?
Replies: 526
Views: 57811

Re: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?

After the Win 10 upgrade our HP Photosmart printer software would not work for scan. Tried a few things but they failed. So I bought an HP4520 printer for about $65 at Bestbuy. So far it's much better then the old printer which was an early wifi printer. Sometimes one just has to shell out a few $'s...
by BlueEars
Thu Apr 07, 2016 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in Roth?
Replies: 12
Views: 1226

Re: Bonds in Roth?

In recent years I've kept the AA for Roth's the same as that for tIRA's. Would be interested in thoughtful arguments why this isn't a good idea. If the market looks bad to me (inverted yield curve, high valuations, unemployment ticking up) I would be inclined to let the tIRA take the equity hit and ...
by BlueEars
Sat Mar 26, 2016 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?
Replies: 526
Views: 57811

Re: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?

My Win 10 experience has been very good except for getting my older HP photosmart printer's scanner software to work. I might have to replace the printer to get scanning back but can still print out files.
by BlueEars
Fri Mar 18, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you time premiums?
Replies: 18
Views: 1734

Re: Can you time premiums?

A few comments: 1) If a great timing system were uncovered in the study would we be reading about it? 2) Is this an annual study, i.e. look at data, buy and hold for 1 year, look at data again? Would seem a monthly process is better to study. 3) If individuals are trading (growth vs value) funds inf...
by BlueEars
Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bogleheads Code (my short version)
Replies: 27
Views: 4852

Re: The Bogleheads Code (my short version)

When does Code = Religion ?

Can one post here if he doesn't sign up? :wink:

Is there forgiveness? Tolerance?
by BlueEars
Tue Mar 08, 2016 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Under the hood of 5 multifactor funds
Replies: 44
Views: 3949

Re: Under the hood of 5 multifactor funds

Thanks Robert, that is very interesting information. Adds impetus to my lowering the Vanguard LV:MV ratio.
by BlueEars
Mon Mar 07, 2016 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Under the hood of 5 multifactor funds
Replies: 44
Views: 3949

Re: Under the hood of 5 multifactor funds

Robert T wrote:.
...
FWIW - here are the backtested annualized returns from 1979-2015 (%)

13.7%...Dimensional US Large Cap Value Index
13.6%...FTSE RAFI US 1000 Index
12.1%...Russell 1000 Value Index
11.7%...Russell 1000 Index

...

Robert, do you have any way of putting these in the context of Vanguard offerings?
by BlueEars
Sun Mar 06, 2016 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversify with Intl Small Cap instead of EM?
Replies: 35
Views: 3110

Re: Diversify with Intl Small Cap instead of EM?

... VEIEX/VEMAX/VWO is still transitioning from a large cap emerging markets fund to an all-cap emerging markets fund. Over the course of this year (from November 2015 to November 2016), it will gradually include more mid-cap and small-cap firms. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/fu...
by BlueEars
Sun Mar 06, 2016 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversify with Intl Small Cap instead of EM?
Replies: 35
Views: 3110

Re: Diversify with Intl Small Cap instead of EM?

... The Vanguard Diehards: This is the Bogleheads not Vanguard Marketing Corp. There are other low cost indexed providers out their. The problem with Vg is in many cases you have to take EM whether you want to or not. Feel free here to name some better choices. Besides VINEX and VFSVX, I've looked ...
by BlueEars
Sun Mar 06, 2016 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversify with Intl Small Cap instead of EM?
Replies: 35
Views: 3110

Re: Diversify with Intl Small Cap instead of EM?

... I agree with you that emerging market fund has a fair number of large companies at the top but then so does US total stock or Total International. The emerging stuff if anything is MUCH smaller..YMMV just want to make sure you have the facts correct. Yes, there are 3413 holdings in VEIEX so the...
by BlueEars
Sat Mar 05, 2016 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversify with Intl Small Cap instead of EM?
Replies: 35
Views: 3110

Re: Diversify with Intl Small Cap instead of EM?

I too like VINEX but mostly because of performance. It has outperformed VFSVX partly because VINEX has a lower EM component. I track both of these monthly and would have no compunction about switching. Only married to my wife, not to investment instruments. :wink:
by BlueEars
Sat Mar 05, 2016 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversify with Intl Small Cap instead of EM?
Replies: 35
Views: 3110

Re: Diversify with Intl Small Cap instead of EM?

When I mentioned the size stuff above, I was talking about a huge difference in perception. VG says VEIEX has a median capitalization equivalent to its US midcaps. M* shows VEIEX as very large cap (see the giant cap and large cap proportions). So I am not talking about minor boundaries on capitaliza...
by BlueEars
Sat Mar 05, 2016 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversify with Intl Small Cap instead of EM?
Replies: 35
Views: 3110

Diversify with Intl Small Cap instead of EM?

I was looking at Vanguards EM offering (VEIEX) and wondering if it would be a good asset class for me to add. I only have large cap international and small cap international right now. So that is my motivation for looking into this further. Plus I've seen several threads on EM here and need to add a...
by BlueEars
Thu Mar 03, 2016 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar discontinued the Ibbotson SBBI Classic Yearbook?
Replies: 26
Views: 2606

Re: Morningstar discontinued the Ibbotson SBBI Classic Yearbook?

What is the motivation to buy this? Will you really make better investment decisions with this information?

I've seen this cited as a source occasionally but never looked into getting it.
by BlueEars
Sun Feb 28, 2016 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mid-caps and derivatives - New historical data
Replies: 29
Views: 2207

Re: Mid-caps and derivatives - New historical data

I do not believe there was any mid cap index going back to 1927. In fact some "authorities" say since 1927 the emerging markets have had the best performance. Again, there was no emerging market index way back then and in fact the emerging market mutual funds started around 1992. I think ...
by BlueEars
Sun Feb 28, 2016 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mid-caps and derivatives - New historical data
Replies: 29
Views: 2207

Re: Mid-caps and derivatives - New historical data

... And I just figured out that there is a terrific historical comparison between indexes on the wiki page about US small cap index returns . Scroll down for small cap value. This explains a lot... And there is a similar page for US mid cap index returns . From those tables for 10 year CAGR, 2006 t...
by BlueEars
Sat Feb 27, 2016 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mid-caps and derivatives - New historical data
Replies: 29
Views: 2207

Re: Mid-caps and derivatives - New historical data

...The evidence that SV beats (or at least did beat) any other category on the long run seems pretty firmly established, albeit with the price of serious volatility. ... That SV category applies to certain extreme size/value factors that are not available at Vanguard. Probably that SV performance i...
by BlueEars
Sat Feb 27, 2016 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mid-caps and derivatives - New historical data
Replies: 29
Views: 2207

Re: Mid-caps and derivatives - New historical data

Thanks for this Siamond. One observation, the FF (DFA?) comparison is different then the VG comparison and the conclusions one draws from the FF analysis might not be correct for VG. We see that FF SV beats FF MV although not consistently and not that much over the 30+ years shown. We see that VG MV...
by BlueEars
Sat Feb 27, 2016 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mid-caps and derivatives - New historical data
Replies: 29
Views: 2207

Re: Mid-caps and derivatives - New historical data

This is very good work Siamond, thanks. Confirms that what we have seen in recent years is not just recency. ... Finally, here are some summary statistics (click on the chart to avoid squinting too much!). Note that the 1972+ numbers aren't too different from the Simba/Vanguard numbers (good!). ... ...
by BlueEars
Tue Feb 23, 2016 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns
Replies: 100
Views: 7907

Re: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns

PS for Kevin: VFITX was created in 1992, not 1994. More precisely 10/28/1991. I thought I got the returns from a Bogleheads Wiki spreadsheet. Checking ... Vanguard Intermediate Treasury Fund tracking error shows returns back to 1993, not sure why I only went back to 1994. Where did you get 1992? I ...
by BlueEars
Mon Feb 22, 2016 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns
Replies: 100
Views: 7907

Re: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns

Interesting results Kevin. I wonder how static the maturity table is for VFITX. Their description allows for quite a bit of latitude in the low credit risk space: Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Fund seeks a moderate and sustainable level of current income by investing primarily in intermediate-...
by BlueEars
Sun Feb 21, 2016 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: the risk of withdrawing more money in early retirement
Replies: 18
Views: 2132

Re: the risk of withdrawing more money in early retirement

Hi, about a year away, my wife and I have started talking about withdrawal rates, I've advocated btw and 3 and 4 percent. She thinks we should aim for a higher withdrawal rate (perhaps 5 or 6 per cent) in early retirement. Her point is that right now we're healthy, mobile, etc but 10 years from now...
by BlueEars
Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns
Replies: 100
Views: 7907

Re: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns

I am going to suggest a test to see if the calculation method for bond returns actually meet the VPW user needs. Well, actually these are my needs. First, the bond funds I'm interested in are intermediate funds like: 1) VFIUX - intermediate term Treasury ..............(VFITX to April 2001, then VFIU...
by BlueEars
Sat Feb 20, 2016 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?
Replies: 526
Views: 57811

Re: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?

heartwood wrote:...
All is fine in Firefox and Edge. But I agree, the current lack of acceptance of a PW manager extension in Edge is a current deal breaker, almost a year after launch. What are these guys thinking?

I take it that Firefox plus Lastpass is OK in Win 10?
by BlueEars
Sat Feb 20, 2016 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappearing premiums!
Replies: 147
Views: 15918

Re: Disappearing premiums!

If you compare VFINX (S&P500) to VISVX (SCV Index), there is a lot of drift in the exposures to value and size in the latter. There is also a pretty wide range of alpha's over time with VISVX. By comparison, VFINX has very little factor exposure drift and a tight range of alphas as you would ex...
by BlueEars
Sat Feb 20, 2016 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappearing premiums!
Replies: 147
Views: 15918

Re: Disappearing premiums!

Nate Another problem with a three-factor or four factor analysis of VISVX is that about 15% of fund is REITs (IMO a reason not to own it, especially in taxable accounts, if want REITS own them separately). Larry M* shows it as 11% REIT. Are you thinking that REITs are a separate asset class and nee...
by BlueEars
Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappearing premiums!
Replies: 147
Views: 15918

Re: Disappearing premiums!

I wish someone would do a good translation tool so I could just look up the hml/smb for my fund and then stick it in the FF database to see how it might have done way back in ancient history. There was a thread asking about this sort of thing but I don't think an answer was forthcoming. https://www...
by BlueEars
Sat Feb 20, 2016 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappearing premiums!
Replies: 147
Views: 15918

Re: Disappearing premiums!

Thanks Larry. I perhaps overstated my position which is not to move away from a diversified portfolio. I do own small caps (through Vanguard's small cap index) but in a market weight rather then a tilt to SV. As we know Vanguard SV is not the same as the French Fama SV. I get quite confused by some ...
by BlueEars
Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappearing premiums!
Replies: 147
Views: 15918

Re: Disappearing premiums!

Blue Ears If anything, EXACTLY BACKWARDS. The longer the horizon the smaller the dispersion of returns between the factors/asset classes. But the shorter the horizon the wider the dispersion of returns. ... Larry, could you put this in plain English without the caps which I think is poor manners? I...
by BlueEars
Fri Feb 19, 2016 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappearing premiums!
Replies: 147
Views: 15918

Re: Disappearing premiums!

With significant risk of underperformance out to 20 years (and beyond), I would think that only younger investors should be in some of the risk premium equities. A 65 year old investor is probably better served just focusing on general equity risk.

I bet Larry has another take on this.
by BlueEars
Wed Feb 10, 2016 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 590
Views: 171511

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

There will be various considerations in setting the Last Withdrawal Age. Ours is set to 110. This is primarily to leave us a big cushion in our ancient years. Since we get a good spending number even in a bad starting retirement year sequence (like starting in 1968), I'm comfortable with this. No ne...
by BlueEars
Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)
Replies: 94
Views: 7765

Re: The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)

clutchied wrote:...
good luck, but be aware amazon over prices their LED's significantly.

Here is the Amazon link: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B019G5Q73S?psc=1&redirect=true&ref_=od_aui_detailpages00
About $7.50 per bulb for 4 pack.
by BlueEars
Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do value stocks outperform growth when rates rise?
Replies: 4
Views: 445

Re: Do value stocks outperform growth when rates rise?

Nice data dkturner, thanks. Maybe there is hope for my value tilted portfolio?
by BlueEars
Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)
Replies: 94
Views: 7765

Re: The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)

... Just a plug for the FEIT bulbs at costco; they are really great as far as CRI and watts/lumen. I like them over the Cree bulbs right now. Better performance, light quality and CRI. ... I did not know about CRI until this thread. The Feit Flood bulbs I bought at ACE have no CRI printed on the pa...
by BlueEars
Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do value stocks outperform growth when rates rise?
Replies: 4
Views: 445

Re: Do value stocks outperform growth when rates rise?

really depends on WHY rates rising If it's Fed tightening to slow economy/fight inflation that would be BAD for value stocks if it's moderately rising inflation that is good as value stocks more leveraged and inflation reduces cost of debt in real terms if it's due to higher demand, so real rates r...
by BlueEars
Thu Feb 04, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do value stocks outperform growth when rates rise?
Replies: 4
Views: 445

Do value stocks outperform growth when rates rise?

I ran into this article from Nov 2015: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-time-pick-value-over-181935846.html “First, falling rates suggest a weaker economy, so more cyclical and economically sensitive value stocks face a head wind,” Pimco said in its research note. “Second, lower policy rates mean...
by BlueEars
Thu Feb 04, 2016 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)
Replies: 94
Views: 7765

Re: The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)

Possibly more important than bulb color in many applications is the bulb's Color Rendering Index (CRI). An incandescent bulb has a CRI of 100, typical low cost LED is 80 or below CRI, but for a modest upcharge higher quality LED can be found with 92+ CRI. For interior lighting, I've been pleased wi...
by BlueEars
Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15
Replies: 334
Views: 39864

Re: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15

I have a spreadsheet with the 10mo SMA. It was long in January. Just signalled to get out in Feb. If he is using S&P 500 index price, then he should be short in beginning of January. It is always better to use the index, since it has longer history and back test is done with the index price. My...
by BlueEars
Tue Feb 02, 2016 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15
Replies: 334
Views: 39864

Re: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15

Given the big declines this month, it seems likely the OP has now gone 100% short on 2/1. The S&P500 fell about 5% in January and he had said he was was very close to the threshold. So that's another -5% to add to his returns. I'm not keeping tabs on a total return but it's around -25% in 4.5 m...
by BlueEars
Mon Feb 01, 2016 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: French-Fama 2x3, 10x10, mid-caps... Help?
Replies: 27
Views: 2873

Re: French-Fama 2x3, 10x10, mid-caps... Help?

Thanks Siamond and Robert. I'm still digesting that thread on Telltale Charts. I now appreciate how that chart format gives a good perspective. I'm retired and am not thinking in 40 year time frames. So mentally applying a 10 year or 20 year window to these charts is a good idea, I think. What I mea...
by BlueEars
Mon Feb 01, 2016 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: French-Fama 2x3, 10x10, mid-caps... Help?
Replies: 27
Views: 2873

Re: French-Fama 2x3, 10x10, mid-caps... Help?

I'm disappointed because I received no comment on the msci + Vanguard fund data that I posted above. No opinions at all? Come on guys. To be more precise about the data, the msci index was used by Vanguard from as I recall about 2002 to a few years ago when it was replaced by CRSP based indexes. So ...
by BlueEars
Sat Jan 30, 2016 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard introducing 0.01% expense ratio funds
Replies: 24
Views: 4883

Re: Vanguard introducing 0.01% expense ratio funds

Probably Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, and some of my other friends asked for it. Do 3B Bogleheads posts count? Victoria I am going to dump the comic strips and head over here for laughs. :happy Seriously, there are some threads here that are quite funny. Like one asking where to get a manual can ope...
by BlueEars
Sat Jan 30, 2016 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: French-Fama 2x3, 10x10, mid-caps... Help?
Replies: 27
Views: 2873

Re: French-Fama 2x3, 10x10, mid-caps... Help?

Robert, do you think that those relative values for SV, MV, LV are representative of Vanguard funds should they have been in existence for the whole period? Or maybe DFA instead with their higher tilt values? The last 24 years have been somewhat different for msci + VG funds. The data I have for Jun...
by BlueEars
Fri Jan 29, 2016 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: French-Fama 2x3, 10x10, mid-caps... Help?
Replies: 27
Views: 2873

Re: French-Fama 2x3, 10x10, mid-caps... Help?

I personally like midcaps a lot. May be recency bias but VG's (+msci index data) have outperformed since 1992, especially MV. I'm only talking about VG funds comparing SV,MV, and LV. I am *not* talking about the extremes of small and value available at DFA. You probably know one can get the current ...
by BlueEars
Thu Jan 28, 2016 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VFIDX up .83% in one day?
Replies: 41
Views: 4312

Re: VFIDX up .83% in one day?

It's nice when one can look at the corresponding ETF to try and get some answers. Doesn't exist for VFIDX yet.
by BlueEars
Thu Jan 28, 2016 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign ETF Trading - Best Practice
Replies: 41
Views: 1965

Re: Foreign ETF Trading - Best Practice

Sounds to me like jhfenton knows what he's doing. Did not seem like he is asking for advice.
by BlueEars
Wed Jan 27, 2016 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign ETF Trading - Best Practice
Replies: 41
Views: 1965

Re: Foreign ETF Trading - Best Practice

All my accounts are tax advantaged so all my strategies have nothing to do with taxation. I just asked in case I was missing something about preferring funds over ETF's, especially for international. I am not inferring something else about your strategies so hope your bogleheads/boneheads has nothin...
by BlueEars
Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign ETF Trading - Best Practice
Replies: 41
Views: 1965

Re: Foreign ETF Trading - Best Practice

Doc, are you holding the VEA as an ETF because you might want to do some tax loss harvesting? Or did it just turn out this way?
by BlueEars
Mon Jan 25, 2016 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign ETF Trading - Best Practice
Replies: 41
Views: 1965

Re: Foreign ETF Trading - Best Practice

... This leaves me exposed for a few minutes (out of the market until the close). Not a good feeling but I've been lucky so far. I've been TLH with foreign and am using different brokers/accounts/securities and have two windows open at the same time and execute the buy and sell in the time it takes...

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