Search found 3470 matches

by BlueEars
Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 107
Views: 7798

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

.... I'm also failing to see how someone could social engineer information for a site like Vanguard if one has set up telephone voice identification authorization. Additionally, if one has set up gibberish security questions answers, security phrases, etc., how would it be possible to socially engi...
by BlueEars
Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 107
Views: 7798

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

The OP mentioned using TMobile which is also my provider. T-Mobile now allows a complex password so it does not have to be associated with your SS number. The PW can be something like SILLY4563 and is for verbal ID only. Maybe this is all the OP would have needed to prevent the original hack. Though...
by BlueEars
Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Questions on electronic security while traveling
Replies: 13
Views: 569

Re: Questions on electronic security while traveling

When I started this thread, I was thinking of situations like (1) you are trying to login to your airlines app to do a checkin, or (2) you are logging into a somewhat low sensitivity site like Bogleheads. I probably did not make this clear. I'm just looking for best practice examples. Most here are ...
by BlueEars
Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Questions on electronic security while traveling
Replies: 13
Views: 569

Re: Questions on electronic security while traveling

...If your browser is using https the traffic should be encrypted ... Does this mean going to https:Vanguard.com is relatively safe then? We typically use an Android phone, Android tablet, or an iPad to connect to the hotspot while on the road. All the cyber security issues and talks are making me ...
by BlueEars
Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Questions on electronic security while traveling
Replies: 13
Views: 569

Re: Questions on electronic security while traveling

Thanks, I should look into 2 FA authentication for this particular issue.

It just occurred to me that I can set the smartphone to airplane mode (no wifi or cellular) to get at passwords on Lastpass and even to enter the master password should the Lastpass app need that to come up.
by BlueEars
Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Questions on electronic security while traveling
Replies: 13
Views: 569

Questions on electronic security while traveling

It is common to read that hotel wifi connections (in USA or foreign) are not to be considered secure. One way to avoid security issues for some sites is to use an App that is always available on a tablet or smartphone so no password entry is required. This would work for something like Gmail. But so...
by BlueEars
Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available
Replies: 74
Views: 17176

Re: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available

Some years back there was good long term data presented on sort term IG bonds. I think the poster had a good background in DFA type investing. Anyway the basic idea was that ST IG had a good track record. Sorry I am out of town right now or would hunt that up. My current approach is to keep a modest...
by BlueEars
Fri Aug 25, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 177
Views: 33777

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

Right and yield curve inversion can lead by several months which explains why many do not see a good correlation with equity declines. Timing is tough.
by BlueEars
Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 177
Views: 33777

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

I think the word "momentum" is misleading for this strategy. The meat of the system consist in trading out of equities when the 1 year stock market returns are inferior to bills returns. In my mind this is closer to a yield curve inversion (2 years yield higher than 10 years) than assets momentum. ...
by BlueEars
Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Harry Bosch: the Amazon Series vs the novels
Replies: 47
Views: 2462

Re: Harry Bosch:the Amazon Series vs the novels

gkaplan wrote:To those of you nit picking the series, I'm pretty sure Michael Connelly was an active participant in its production. In fact, I believe he was instrumental in creating it.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosch_(TV_series)
Nitpicking is what Bogelheads do best.
by BlueEars
Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Harry Bosch: the Amazon Series vs the novels
Replies: 47
Views: 2462

Re: Harry Bosch:the Amazon Series vs the novels

In the books Bosch is a Vietnam vet. The TV series is set in the present day, and Bosch is a vet but not sure which war.
by BlueEars
Wed Aug 09, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Harry Bosch: the Amazon Series vs the novels
Replies: 47
Views: 2462

Re: Harry Bosch:the Amazon Series vs the novels

After seeing the Amazon series I started reading the books. Really enjoy them. Just read The Lincoln Lawyer (Mickey Halley) and that was great. I don't expect the TV to be like the book.
by BlueEars
Sun Aug 06, 2017 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LastPass Premium price increasing
Replies: 32
Views: 2998

Re: LastPass Premium price increasing

... I used Excel a long time ago for my passwords. It was a hassle to use as well as to keep in sync across multiple drives so I wouldn't have a single point of failure if I lost it. At the time it wasn't very secure, mostly because passwording an Excel spreadsheet was terrible security. ... I used...
by BlueEars
Fri Aug 04, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?
Replies: 29
Views: 3115

Re: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?

Yes, the much loved positive tracking error.
by BlueEars
Fri Aug 04, 2017 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?
Replies: 29
Views: 3115

Re: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?

One other point is that the fund vinex has a growth tilt. I'm skeptical that its roughly 40 bp/yr overperformance relative to a DM small cap blend index over the last 9 years is from active management. I suspect it is from growth beating value for DM non-US stocks during that time. I'm interested i...
by BlueEars
Wed Aug 02, 2017 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?
Replies: 29
Views: 3115

Re: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?

Corrections added below Re: EM exposure The active managers of VINEX seem to have delivered net value over ER, but I don't think it is nearly as much as the above backtests would lead one to believe. I think VINEX has in the past invested in non-US developed markets small cap stocks. VSS holds EM s...
by BlueEars
Wed Aug 02, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?
Replies: 29
Views: 3115

Re: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?

Vinex only has about 7% EM while vfsux is at 17%. This has been one of the reasons besides performance that I use it for my SCI. Currently have 15% of our portfolio in vinex.
by BlueEars
Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Excel 2010 and Windows 7 -- Where to go from here?
Replies: 39
Views: 3002

Re: Excel 2010 and Windows 7 -- Where to go from here?

Office 365 Home for $99/year is the way to stay current. $69.99 for 1 PC/Mac. https://products.office.com/en-us/office-365-home I am still running an old version of MS Office. When I eventually decide to get a new version of the Office (Word, PPT, Excel), is a subscription the only option? I don't ...
by BlueEars
Sat Jul 08, 2017 6:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Excel 2010 and Windows 7 -- Where to go from here?
Replies: 39
Views: 3002

Re: Excel 2010 and Windows 7 -- Where to go from here?

My transition to Win 10 went very smoothly. I have Excel 2007. No issues.

If I were getting a new system I would probably stick with Windows and Excel 2016.
by BlueEars
Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: swimming goggles
Replies: 29
Views: 2225

Re: swimming goggles

My goggles occasionally leaked. Maybe this is standard procedure for some swimmers but I had to discover this myself. I find that when I gently press in on them there is a slight suction created and water doesn't seep in. Happy eyes now. :happy
by BlueEars
Sat Jun 17, 2017 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who mixes android and iOS
Replies: 24
Views: 1342

Re: Who mixes android and iOS

jharkin wrote:Well the deed is done... Wife saw this conversation and went out and grabbed me a 32GB iPad 2017 with a target coupon as a fathers day gift.

Like it so far.... I didn't realize how horibly slow and buggy the Nexus10 had gotten. This could be trouble. :twisted:

Happy Father's Day. :happy
by BlueEars
Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who mixes android and iOS
Replies: 24
Views: 1342

Re: Who mixes android and iOS

... But I am getting tired of GARBAGE google tablets. Ive been through a Zoom, a Nexus, a Nexus10. All of them have had problems. stability issues, random crashing, poor app selection. The Nexus10 is in really bad shape and overdue for a replacement but I just dont see anything compelling out there...
by BlueEars
Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio
Replies: 15
Views: 2657

Re: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio

M* shows that for VSIAX (small cap value admiral) the price/prospective_earnings = 17.7 .

That current VG figure is probably bogus. Here is the history I've recorded from those VG supplied figures:

Image
by BlueEars
Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?
Replies: 103
Views: 7633

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Someone observed that you have to take some major roller coaster rides when investing in growth stocks. Said another way, look at some of those charts (on a log scale) for the ones you've mentioned. You will see some deep dives (AMZN took a dive in the early 2000's). Then you may look at some former...
by BlueEars
Sat May 27, 2017 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is international a momentum investment?
Replies: 18
Views: 2025

Re: Is international a momentum investment?

The performance of international funds has been surging for the last year after years of underperforming. Is this an indication of positive momentum? I may have read too many factor based investing threads! DMW I think international funds are in a momentum surge. Will it continue? I have no idea. I...
by BlueEars
Sun May 14, 2017 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 182
Views: 27979

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

I was comparing 60/40 versus 40/60 using the VPW tool and a start date of 1966 for the simulation. This is the worst period in modern history for a retirement portfolio of standard construction. It seemed to show similar results for both AA's, not quite what I would have guessed. But this nugget of ...
by BlueEars
Sat May 13, 2017 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 182
Views: 27979

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

I've looked at some VPW scenarios and it seems that there is not a whole lot of difference in portfolio outcomes between 60/40 and 40/60 in really bad markets (like the period 1966 to 1980). But simulations don't seem to cover the current low real bond rates very well. So I'm OK right now with 60/40...
by BlueEars
Tue May 02, 2017 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 177
Views: 33777

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

... To avoid whipsaws I suggest to add an unemployment filter: if unemployment rate is below its 12 SMA, you stay invested either in SPX or International equities, if unemployment rate is above its 12 SMA you check the absolute momentum filter (vanilla GEM) What do you think about adding this filte...
by BlueEars
Sun Apr 30, 2017 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yelp, no way to contact them. Experiences?
Replies: 1
Views: 634

Yelp, no way to contact them. Experiences?

I've used Yelp for some years. Wrote positive and some negative reviews. Then recently I wrote 2 reviews. One was positive and one was kind of negative. The reviews did not appear because they have cancelled my login. They claimed I had 2 logins. The one they cancelled I had for years. I don't know ...
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1683

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

Now, using a buffering mechanism does seem like a good thing, but the overlapping bands are really wide, and it seems to me that this would dilute the value effect. Any thoughts from mathematically-inclined folks? Is CRSP doing the right thing? Yes they are. As stlutz points out, the practice is co...
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1683

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

Jo, I guess in the end we all just want more money to fund our other desires. So if factors predict returns, I'm all for them. But I'm not convinced they are predictive. Maybe I've missed some presentations on the forum which show the superiority of a factor view of investing. That said, I do have a...
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1683

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

Aside from my belief that the factor tilts are silly, if it was something you were trying to do for whatever reason, it looks like Vanguard's Small-Value is the least small (SmB) and least valuey (HmL) compared to Russell 2000 Value and S&P 600 Small-Cap Value index funds PV Link Thanks, the fa...
by BlueEars
Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1683

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

Now, using a buffering mechanism does seem like a good thing, but the overlapping bands are really wide, and it seems to me that this would dilute the value effect. Any thoughts from mathematically-inclined folks? Is CRSP doing the right thing? Well... Any taker? What's wrong with my take? I tend t...
by BlueEars
Sun Apr 16, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1683

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

I compared CRSP to MSCI index results a few years ago. This table kind of convinced me that CRSP was a good change for VG (and me):

Image
by BlueEars
Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remembering the Crash of 1987
Replies: 66
Views: 7059

Re: Remembering the Crash of 1987

... The thing about 2008-09 which is potentially very misleading, is the sharpness and speed of the recovery. Longer term bear markets have a way of shaking the speculators out, decisively, setting the basis for the next bull run. This time, the "lesson" was about jumping quickly back in ...
by BlueEars
Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remembering the Crash of 1987
Replies: 66
Views: 7059

Re: Remembering the Crash of 1987

... I cannot emphasize enough read Benoit Mandelbrot's The Misbehavior of Markets. Equity returns are much more likely to be fractal than anything else. I did look at the reviews for Mandelbrot's book here: https://smile.amazon.com/Misbehavior-Markets-Fractal-Financial-Turbulence/dp/0465043577/ref=...
by BlueEars
Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remembering the Crash of 1987
Replies: 66
Views: 7059

Re: Remembering the Crash of 1987

Agree very much with Valuethinker's last post.
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 04, 2017 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 7785

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

There is one LT corporate bond Baa data set here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAA

It shows the width of the yield spike in the early 1930's was much wider (longer) and higher then the one seen in 2008-2009.
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 7785

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

... Yes, ok, the corporates had that hiccup in 2008. They dropped by 7%, and quickly recovered (then kind of soared). There was a similar hiccup in 1974 (not visible on the growth chart), with a 6% drop and a recovery the year after. That's definitely not risk in my book, it's just a hiccup. Treasu...
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 04, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remembering the Crash of 1987
Replies: 66
Views: 7059

Re: Remembering the Crash of 1987

When I recall events like 1987, I like to think that there are perhaps ways to avoid such a drop. In late September 1987 the 10 year Treasury yielded 9.6% when inflation was running something like 4%. Quite a good real yield and so one might have adjusted AA accordingly. I did not have such a perspe...
by BlueEars
Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 7785

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

I have a lot of VFIDX (Intermediate Investment Grade) which has an M* credit rating of A. It took quite a tumble in the fall of 2008. The AA rated VBTLX (total bond mkt) did much better in that equity decline period. VCORX has fewer corporates (29% versus 67% for VFIDX). Would one expect a better pe...
by BlueEars
Sun Mar 12, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2017 Honda CRV: anyone shopping or buying?
Replies: 26
Views: 4465

Re: 2017 Honda CRV: anyone shopping or buying?

... Your satisfaction with the 2017 model, will partly depend on what you are used to driving. We find the 2017 noticeable quieter and smoother on the highway than any other CR-V model we owned. CR-V power train as have never been gutsy. They are closer to being family station-wagons than true 'uti...
by BlueEars
Tue Mar 07, 2017 12:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Camry Redesign
Replies: 61
Views: 6926

Re: Camry Redesign

We don't drive all that much and often rent a car on fly/drive trips. I was reading good things about the Honda CRV 2017 and nowadays DW demands heated seats.

We currently have a Honda CRV 2004 and it has been very reliable. Good road clearance for trips like we just did to Death Valley.
by BlueEars
Sun Mar 05, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Camry Redesign
Replies: 61
Views: 6926

Re: Camry Redesign

How many safety improvements have there been on cars since you bought your 2000 Camry? Quite a lot, I think. Will the 2018 Camry be better than the 2017 in this regard? Certainly yes. However, how does that balance out against the risk of driving your 17 year old car another year (or two) vs. drivi...
by BlueEars
Thu Feb 23, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Run Ups - Now vs. Then
Replies: 88
Views: 7523

Re: Market Run Ups - Now vs. Then

What worries me is most of the above comments seem so sensible to me. What am I missing? Well there was the market decline of 1962. Remember that? The yield curve was steep as it is now. But PE10's relative to the previous 30 years were extremely high (in the 99% area). Now PE10's are high but only ...
by BlueEars
Sun Feb 19, 2017 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 739
Views: 224231

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Blueears, I like your concept and the modified spreadsheet (above) supporting it. It sounds like we're in a similar situation...retired and living off our our portfolios and, coincidentally, spending about 3.3% (this is prior to SS for me at this point). I've been very interested in VPW but haven't...
by BlueEars
Tue Jan 24, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 739
Views: 224231

Re: Actual withdrawal

Why does the spreadsheet ask you to enter your actual withdrawal? It doesn't seem used anywhere. You already enter your starting balance the next year, which seems to be what matters, so it's not clear why it asks for your actual withdrawal. Hi, I notice this is your first post here. Welcome. Are y...
by BlueEars
Mon Jan 23, 2017 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 739
Views: 224231

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Below is an example of this approach with the revised VPW. The couple had a $1M portfolio, drew $34000 from social security, and basically spent at a 3.1% rate from the portfolio. I don't quite follow the example. It seems like you're saying "the couple has a fixed need of $65,000 a year. $34,...
by BlueEars
Sun Jan 22, 2017 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 739
Views: 224231

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Some time ago we talked about using VPW and accumulating a reserve with the unspent year's money. One would invest this money in some low risk investment such as CD's or short term bonds or even Tbills. For those of us who don't need all the percentage VPW says we can spend, this can be used to even...
by BlueEars
Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short-Term Investment Grade or Short-Term Corporate Index?
Replies: 6
Views: 979

Re: Short-Term Investment Grade or Short-Term Corporate Index?

Tell me, what do you think about adding this 3rd bond fund? Thoughts on staying completely pure like Swensen recommends, vs adding some of these short corporates? I don't see a problem. I don't think one needs to put gurus up on a pedestal and follow their ideas, so do what you want. I can say that...