Search found 3441 matches

by BlueEars
Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1167

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

Now, using a buffering mechanism does seem like a good thing, but the overlapping bands are really wide, and it seems to me that this would dilute the value effect. Any thoughts from mathematically-inclined folks? Is CRSP doing the right thing? Yes they are. As stlutz points out, the practice is co...
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1167

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

Jo, I guess in the end we all just want more money to fund our other desires. So if factors predict returns, I'm all for them. But I'm not convinced they are predictive. Maybe I've missed some presentations on the forum which show the superiority of a factor view of investing. That said, I do have a...
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1167

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

Aside from my belief that the factor tilts are silly, if it was something you were trying to do for whatever reason, it looks like Vanguard's Small-Value is the least small (SmB) and least valuey (HmL) compared to Russell 2000 Value and S&P 600 Small-Cap Value index funds PV Link Thanks, the fa...
by BlueEars
Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1167

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

Now, using a buffering mechanism does seem like a good thing, but the overlapping bands are really wide, and it seems to me that this would dilute the value effect. Any thoughts from mathematically-inclined folks? Is CRSP doing the right thing? Well... Any taker? :?: What's wrong with my take? I te...
by BlueEars
Sun Apr 16, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1167

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

I compared CRSP to MSCI index results a few years ago. This table kind of convinced me that CRSP was a good change for VG (and me):

Image
by BlueEars
Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remembering the Crash of 1987
Replies: 66
Views: 6313

Re: Remembering the Crash of 1987

... The thing about 2008-09 which is potentially very misleading, is the sharpness and speed of the recovery. Longer term bear markets have a way of shaking the speculators out, decisively, setting the basis for the next bull run. This time, the "lesson" was about jumping quickly back in ...
by BlueEars
Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remembering the Crash of 1987
Replies: 66
Views: 6313

Re: Remembering the Crash of 1987

... I cannot emphasize enough read Benoit Mandelbrot's The Misbehavior of Markets. Equity returns are much more likely to be fractal than anything else. I did look at the reviews for Mandelbrot's book here: https://smile.amazon.com/Misbehavior-Markets-Fractal-Financial-Turbulence/dp/0465043577/ref=...
by BlueEars
Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remembering the Crash of 1987
Replies: 66
Views: 6313

Re: Remembering the Crash of 1987

Agree very much with Valuethinker's last post.
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 04, 2017 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 5439

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

There is one LT corporate bond Baa data set here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAA

It shows the width of the yield spike in the early 1930's was much wider (longer) and higher then the one seen in 2008-2009.
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 5439

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

... Yes, ok, the corporates had that hiccup in 2008. They dropped by 7%, and quickly recovered (then kind of soared). There was a similar hiccup in 1974 (not visible on the growth chart), with a 6% drop and a recovery the year after. That's definitely not risk in my book, it's just a hiccup. Treasu...
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 04, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remembering the Crash of 1987
Replies: 66
Views: 6313

Re: Remembering the Crash of 1987

When I recall events like 1987, I like to think that there are perhaps ways to avoid such a drop. In late September 1987 the 10 year Treasury yielded 9.6% when inflation was running something like 4%. Quite a good real yield and so one might have adjusted AA accordingly. I did not have such a perspe...
by BlueEars
Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 5439

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

I have a lot of VFIDX (Intermediate Investment Grade) which has an M* credit rating of A. It took quite a tumble in the fall of 2008. The AA rated VBTLX (total bond mkt) did much better in that equity decline period. VCORX has fewer corporates (29% versus 67% for VFIDX). Would one expect a better pe...
by BlueEars
Sun Mar 12, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2017 Honda CRV: anyone shopping or buying?
Replies: 26
Views: 2957

Re: 2017 Honda CRV: anyone shopping or buying?

... Your satisfaction with the 2017 model, will partly depend on what you are used to driving. We find the 2017 noticeable quieter and smoother on the highway than any other CR-V model we owned. CR-V power train as have never been gutsy. They are closer to being family station-wagons than true 'uti...
by BlueEars
Tue Mar 07, 2017 12:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Camry Redesign
Replies: 61
Views: 6064

Re: Camry Redesign

We don't drive all that much and often rent a car on fly/drive trips. I was reading good things about the Honda CRV 2017 and nowadays DW demands heated seats.

We currently have a Honda CRV 2004 and it has been very reliable. Good road clearance for trips like we just did to Death Valley.
by BlueEars
Sun Mar 05, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Camry Redesign
Replies: 61
Views: 6064

Re: Camry Redesign

How many safety improvements have there been on cars since you bought your 2000 Camry? Quite a lot, I think. Will the 2018 Camry be better than the 2017 in this regard? Certainly yes. However, how does that balance out against the risk of driving your 17 year old car another year (or two) vs. drivi...
by BlueEars
Thu Feb 23, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Run Ups - Now vs. Then
Replies: 88
Views: 6185

Re: Market Run Ups - Now vs. Then

What worries me is most of the above comments seem so sensible to me. What am I missing? Well there was the market decline of 1962. Remember that? :wink: The yield curve was steep as it is now. But PE10's relative to the previous 30 years were extremely high (in the 99% area). Now PE10's are high bu...
by BlueEars
Sun Feb 19, 2017 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 718
Views: 209371

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Blueears, I like your concept and the modified spreadsheet (above) supporting it. It sounds like we're in a similar situation...retired and living off our our portfolios and, coincidentally, spending about 3.3% (this is prior to SS for me at this point). I've been very interested in VPW but haven't...
by BlueEars
Tue Jan 24, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 718
Views: 209371

Re: Actual withdrawal

Why does the spreadsheet ask you to enter your actual withdrawal? It doesn't seem used anywhere. You already enter your starting balance the next year, which seems to be what matters, so it's not clear why it asks for your actual withdrawal. Hi, I notice this is your first post here. Welcome. Are y...
by BlueEars
Mon Jan 23, 2017 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 718
Views: 209371

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Below is an example of this approach with the revised VPW. The couple had a $1M portfolio, drew $34000 from social security, and basically spent at a 3.1% rate from the portfolio. I don't quite follow the example. It seems like you're saying "the couple has a fixed need of $65,000 a year. $34,...
by BlueEars
Sun Jan 22, 2017 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 718
Views: 209371

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Some time ago we talked about using VPW and accumulating a reserve with the unspent year's money. One would invest this money in some low risk investment such as CD's or short term bonds or even Tbills. For those of us who don't need all the percentage VPW says we can spend, this can be used to even...
by BlueEars
Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short-Term Investment Grade or Short-Term Corporate Index?
Replies: 6
Views: 683

Re: Short-Term Investment Grade or Short-Term Corporate Index?

Tell me, what do you think about adding this 3rd bond fund? Thoughts on staying completely pure like Swensen recommends, vs adding some of these short corporates? I don't see a problem. I don't think one needs to put gurus up on a pedestal and follow their ideas, so do what you want. I can say that...
by BlueEars
Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth
Replies: 17
Views: 1747

Re: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth

Here is some PE data I have periodically lifted from the Vanguard site:

Image

The VBR pe is only about 10% above the May 2011 level. Also bonds are quite a bit lower yields (higher bond PE's).
by BlueEars
Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Doing email with a Chromebook
Replies: 16
Views: 1450

Re: Doing email with a Chromebook

If I were planning to use a dedicated system for finances (accessing banks etc) I think I would avoid using that same device for mail -- or at a minimum, only use it to access a dedicated email account that I used only for password resets. Can you elaborate? Finances involves email - getting transa...
by BlueEars
Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yahoo Finance redesign
Replies: 47
Views: 5751

Re: Yahoo Finance redesign

I hope people continue to use the Yahoo finance site for some info. I'm sure their funding is not what it used to be but it still provides some important things like: 1) Historical data - I haven't found a replacement for their daily and monthly historical data 2) The portfolio function continues to...
by BlueEars
Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing: you must pay for your lunch -- sometimes a lot.
Replies: 52
Views: 6178

Re: Value investing: you must pay for your lunch -- sometimes a lot.

.... What are you even looking at? Returns data? That doesn't tell you about relative factor exposure. In any case I'm not really seeing it, though I guess you could have some value definitions that would make it more true. Both CRSP and MSCI split value/growth in half, and CRSP if anything else is...
by BlueEars
Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing: you must pay for your lunch -- sometimes a lot.
Replies: 52
Views: 6178

Re: Value investing: you must pay for your lunch -- sometimes a lot.

Taylor As I have pointed out in past the returns to large value have outperformed over the period you have chosen, it's just not the case for Vanguard funds because they just don't get you significant exposure to value. To see the difference in returns between value and growth you should not use Va...
by BlueEars
Sat Dec 31, 2016 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 19995

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

As a retiree I have to make a decision on spending versus portfolio safety. I think many on the forum get this and make choices that are balanced.

Some on the forum are going to seriously underspend in retirement out of extreme conservatism. I guess that is not the worst fate.
by BlueEars
Thu Dec 29, 2016 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ownership of international stock during wars
Replies: 25
Views: 2274

Re: Ownership of international stock during wars

For the right war, you might want to think about selling your American stocks too. It's possible that the United States will be impacted in a devastating and lasting way by a war involving major powers. Instead of capitulating, some power may opt to push the button. That wasn't a risk for us in WWI...
by BlueEars
Thu Dec 29, 2016 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ownership of international stock during wars
Replies: 25
Views: 2274

Re: Ownership of international stock during wars

War is one of those huge unknowns. In WW2 the US market went up starting in mid-1939 as the markets anticipated war profits from European fighting. But when the Nazis invaded France in May 1940, the market dropped a lot and very quickly ... about 20% within days. The battle of Midway was the US mark...
by BlueEars
Thu Dec 29, 2016 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 19995

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

... For example, I have a boat... Going from zero boats to one boat made me very happy. Going from one boat to a larger boat would barely change my happiness at all. Going from one boat to two boats would probably DIMINISH my happiness... :) Zero boats makes me very happy. :wink: Viva la difference.
by BlueEars
Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 19995

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

I wonder how Bernstein (and Larry Swedroe above) would critique the VPW tool. That allows one to run with bad start year's of 1930 or 1968. That is how I set our AA. But what about the start year 2017? The article discussed the different outcomes for a bond heavy versus stock heavy one starting in t...
by BlueEars
Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance
Replies: 26
Views: 1810

Re: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance

billyv wrote:For me, the big takeaway from BlueEars' chart is the speed with which markets go from favoring value to growth and back again. If you've ever doubted the futility of market timing, here's the proof -- and in Technicolor hues to boot!

I work hard to make nicely colored charts. :happy
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remember what it was like before the recession?
Replies: 81
Views: 8764

Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

... Now as for the S&P500 being up only 5% in 2007...yes. But the OP asks "what was it like before the recession?" Well, how far before the recession are we talking? Yes the S&P50 was up 5% in 2007 but from Jan 1 2006 - Dec 31 2007 it was up 22%: But from Jan 1 2003 - Dec 31 2007 ...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash
Replies: 8
Views: 1286

Re: Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash

That is what I'm doing. Using a plugin to selectively enable Flash. As I documented above, it doesn't always protect you if the site is screwed up.

Pandora has not yet shown a problem. But could it?
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash
Replies: 8
Views: 1286

Re: Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash

I've seen several "free" image hosting sites (ones people have linked to from this site) try to serve ransomware or other malware via Flash exploits. Do not use Flash, at all, ever. It's just too dangerous. Adobe Acrobat Reader is also too dangerous to use, especially if it has any browse...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash
Replies: 8
Views: 1286

Re: Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash

Normaldude, thanks for the tip. I'm glad you saw the same behavior so it's not likely something else on my system.
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market
Replies: 51
Views: 4641

Re: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market

Doc: what is your opinion of the actively-managed Vanguard Core Bond fund? Not my cup of Tea. I avoid long bonds and MBS. It underperforms TBM when Pimco total Return outperforms TBM. If I going to take credit and term risk (M* has it as BBB) I should at least get something for it. Moreover it only...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remember what it was like before the recession?
Replies: 81
Views: 8764

Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

... While things may be considered expensive now, I don't have the same feeling I did before the big crashes, like the economy was really running hot and it was scary. Does anyone else feel the same way? Interesting question you asked and I'll be curious to see the responses. It's hard to look back...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance
Replies: 26
Views: 1810

Re: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance

Blue ears What we can say is that the wider the spread between valuations of value and growth the larger the ex post value premium has been--again demonstrating that valuations matter a great deal. Value certainly isn't expensive now so that argues for a likely continuation as would momentum. But o...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash
Replies: 8
Views: 1286

Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash

Here is what happened (long explanation): I've used Tinypic for years. A long time ago the URL information that was displayed by Tinypic to cut/paste was blacked out and I had to enable Flash to avoid this. In recent months whenever I put an image up like a chart for Bogleheads, I noticed that a ne...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance
Replies: 26
Views: 1810

Re: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance

... So if you were planning on timing into value and missed this run up, what would you look for as a change to start buying. I was planning on rebalancing some TSM to SCV. Good question but unfortunately I can't think of a good rule even looking back over the last 24 years. From that chart above, ...
by BlueEars
Sat Dec 24, 2016 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance
Replies: 26
Views: 1810

Re: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance

Blueears DFA wrote a nice paper showing that really not likely to be able to time the value premium. For example, they looked at going long value when the BTM spread was higher than average and long growth when it was lower and it did worse than just staying long value. Reason pretty simple, just l...
by BlueEars
Sat Dec 24, 2016 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance
Replies: 26
Views: 1810

Re: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance

Having a value tilt has been nice this year. But it probably won't last more then a year or so out i.e. growth will have it's turn. Perhaps the short cycle may have a year or so left but keep in mind, growth outperformed value for a 6 year period. It is likely that value will outperform growth for ...
by BlueEars
Fri Dec 23, 2016 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance
Replies: 26
Views: 1810

Re: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance

It's not a conflict to see bursts of value outperformance in a short-term rolling-return graph, compared to your thinking which appears to be 6-10 year cumulative outperformance. They are different ways of looking at the data. Sounds about right. My graph is geared towards a fairly short term persp...
by BlueEars
Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance
Replies: 26
Views: 1810

1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance

Below is a chart comparing the 12 month returns of a value index versus a growth index. If you look at the magenta, this tracks the small cap value index 12 month gains versus the small cap growth index. The portions above the X-axis are the periods where value wins, and below the X-axis growth wins...
by BlueEars
Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is VBR a no-brainer over IJS?
Replies: 41
Views: 6523

Re: Is VBR a no-brainer over IJS?

Here is a comparison of VIOV, VSIAX, and VTWV for 5 years: http://i64.tinypic.com/2w1uum8.jpg Looks to me like the Small Cap Value Admiral mutual fund (VSIAX, similar to VBR) is an OK choice. Happens to be mine. I don't see a problem with some index changes if it is for the better. No way to keep al...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 19, 2016 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is VBR a no-brainer over IJS?
Replies: 41
Views: 6523

Re: Is VBR a no-brainer over IJS?

IJS is the no brainer investment choice. Sorry I did not post this years ago, but hindsight being 20/20 and all ... Cute but ... VG went to CRSP in 2013. Over the last 3 years the returns for IJS and VSIAX are identical at 10.99%. The CRSP index has outperformed the old MSCI index for small value o...
by BlueEars
Sun Dec 18, 2016 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can I use this as a carry on?
Replies: 10
Views: 1212

Re: Can I use this as a carry on?

I don't know what your requirements are for a carry-on. Mine would be: 1) In normal street use I can fit it on top of my roller bag and secure it to together (roller bag to be checked in at airport) 2) It is fairly light because if I have to move up stairs with this plus my roller bag, I want to do ...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Euro slides as Italy Votes No
Replies: 18
Views: 3307

Re: Euro slides as Italy Votes No

Grok, I agree and am glad you posted this as you know more about bonds than I do. I've not spent any time analyzing VG's take on foreign bonds (almost wrote "bombs").
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 05, 2016 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Euro slides as Italy Votes No
Replies: 18
Views: 3307

Re: Euro slides as Italy Votes No

Just curious. So the sp500 futures are worthless info unless one checks just before the open? In which case they are worthless as an info source to me.

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