Search found 3420 matches

by BlueEars
Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth
Replies: 17
Views: 1481

Re: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth

Here is some PE data I have periodically lifted from the Vanguard site:

Image

The VBR pe is only about 10% above the May 2011 level. Also bonds are quite a bit lower yields (higher bond PE's).
by BlueEars
Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Doing email with a Chromebook
Replies: 16
Views: 1213

Re: Doing email with a Chromebook

If I were planning to use a dedicated system for finances (accessing banks etc) I think I would avoid using that same device for mail -- or at a minimum, only use it to access a dedicated email account that I used only for password resets. Can you elaborate? Finances involves email - getting transa...
by BlueEars
Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yahoo Finance redesign
Replies: 47
Views: 5409

Re: Yahoo Finance redesign

I hope people continue to use the Yahoo finance site for some info. I'm sure their funding is not what it used to be but it still provides some important things like: 1) Historical data - I haven't found a replacement for their daily and monthly historical data 2) The portfolio function continues to...
by BlueEars
Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing: you must pay for your lunch -- sometimes a lot.
Replies: 52
Views: 5802

Re: Value investing: you must pay for your lunch -- sometimes a lot.

.... What are you even looking at? Returns data? That doesn't tell you about relative factor exposure. In any case I'm not really seeing it, though I guess you could have some value definitions that would make it more true. Both CRSP and MSCI split value/growth in half, and CRSP if anything else is...
by BlueEars
Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing: you must pay for your lunch -- sometimes a lot.
Replies: 52
Views: 5802

Re: Value investing: you must pay for your lunch -- sometimes a lot.

Taylor As I have pointed out in past the returns to large value have outperformed over the period you have chosen, it's just not the case for Vanguard funds because they just don't get you significant exposure to value. To see the difference in returns between value and growth you should not use Va...
by BlueEars
Sat Dec 31, 2016 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 18473

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

As a retiree I have to make a decision on spending versus portfolio safety. I think many on the forum get this and make choices that are balanced.

Some on the forum are going to seriously underspend in retirement out of extreme conservatism. I guess that is not the worst fate.
by BlueEars
Thu Dec 29, 2016 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ownership of international stock during wars
Replies: 25
Views: 2071

Re: Ownership of international stock during wars

For the right war, you might want to think about selling your American stocks too. It's possible that the United States will be impacted in a devastating and lasting way by a war involving major powers. Instead of capitulating, some power may opt to push the button. That wasn't a risk for us in WWI...
by BlueEars
Thu Dec 29, 2016 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ownership of international stock during wars
Replies: 25
Views: 2071

Re: Ownership of international stock during wars

War is one of those huge unknowns. In WW2 the US market went up starting in mid-1939 as the markets anticipated war profits from European fighting. But when the Nazis invaded France in May 1940, the market dropped a lot and very quickly ... about 20% within days. The battle of Midway was the US mark...
by BlueEars
Thu Dec 29, 2016 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 18473

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

... For example, I have a boat... Going from zero boats to one boat made me very happy. Going from one boat to a larger boat would barely change my happiness at all. Going from one boat to two boats would probably DIMINISH my happiness... :) Zero boats makes me very happy. :wink: Viva la difference.
by BlueEars
Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 18473

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

I wonder how Bernstein (and Larry Swedroe above) would critique the VPW tool. That allows one to run with bad start year's of 1930 or 1968. That is how I set our AA. But what about the start year 2017? The article discussed the different outcomes for a bond heavy versus stock heavy one starting in t...
by BlueEars
Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance
Replies: 26
Views: 1662

Re: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance

billyv wrote:For me, the big takeaway from BlueEars' chart is the speed with which markets go from favoring value to growth and back again. If you've ever doubted the futility of market timing, here's the proof -- and in Technicolor hues to boot!

I work hard to make nicely colored charts. :happy
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remember what it was like before the recession?
Replies: 81
Views: 8116

Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

... Now as for the S&P500 being up only 5% in 2007...yes. But the OP asks "what was it like before the recession?" Well, how far before the recession are we talking? Yes the S&P50 was up 5% in 2007 but from Jan 1 2006 - Dec 31 2007 it was up 22%: But from Jan 1 2003 - Dec 31 2007 ...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash
Replies: 8
Views: 1187

Re: Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash

That is what I'm doing. Using a plugin to selectively enable Flash. As I documented above, it doesn't always protect you if the site is screwed up.

Pandora has not yet shown a problem. But could it?
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash
Replies: 8
Views: 1187

Re: Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash

I've seen several "free" image hosting sites (ones people have linked to from this site) try to serve ransomware or other malware via Flash exploits. Do not use Flash, at all, ever. It's just too dangerous. Adobe Acrobat Reader is also too dangerous to use, especially if it has any browse...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash
Replies: 8
Views: 1187

Re: Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash

Normaldude, thanks for the tip. I'm glad you saw the same behavior so it's not likely something else on my system.
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market
Replies: 51
Views: 3642

Re: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market

Doc: what is your opinion of the actively-managed Vanguard Core Bond fund? Not my cup of Tea. I avoid long bonds and MBS. It underperforms TBM when Pimco total Return outperforms TBM. If I going to take credit and term risk (M* has it as BBB) I should at least get something for it. Moreover it only...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remember what it was like before the recession?
Replies: 81
Views: 8116

Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

... While things may be considered expensive now, I don't have the same feeling I did before the big crashes, like the economy was really running hot and it was scary. Does anyone else feel the same way? Interesting question you asked and I'll be curious to see the responses. It's hard to look back...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance
Replies: 26
Views: 1662

Re: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance

Blue ears What we can say is that the wider the spread between valuations of value and growth the larger the ex post value premium has been--again demonstrating that valuations matter a great deal. Value certainly isn't expensive now so that argues for a likely continuation as would momentum. But o...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash
Replies: 8
Views: 1187

Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash

Here is what happened (long explanation): I've used Tinypic for years. A long time ago the URL information that was displayed by Tinypic to cut/paste was blacked out and I had to enable Flash to avoid this. In recent months whenever I put an image up like a chart for Bogleheads, I noticed that a ne...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance
Replies: 26
Views: 1662

Re: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance

... So if you were planning on timing into value and missed this run up, what would you look for as a change to start buying. I was planning on rebalancing some TSM to SCV. Good question but unfortunately I can't think of a good rule even looking back over the last 24 years. From that chart above, ...
by BlueEars
Sat Dec 24, 2016 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance
Replies: 26
Views: 1662

Re: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance

Blueears DFA wrote a nice paper showing that really not likely to be able to time the value premium. For example, they looked at going long value when the BTM spread was higher than average and long growth when it was lower and it did worse than just staying long value. Reason pretty simple, just l...
by BlueEars
Sat Dec 24, 2016 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance
Replies: 26
Views: 1662

Re: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance

Having a value tilt has been nice this year. But it probably won't last more then a year or so out i.e. growth will have it's turn. Perhaps the short cycle may have a year or so left but keep in mind, growth outperformed value for a 6 year period. It is likely that value will outperform growth for ...
by BlueEars
Fri Dec 23, 2016 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance
Replies: 26
Views: 1662

Re: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance

It's not a conflict to see bursts of value outperformance in a short-term rolling-return graph, compared to your thinking which appears to be 6-10 year cumulative outperformance. They are different ways of looking at the data. Sounds about right. My graph is geared towards a fairly short term persp...
by BlueEars
Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance
Replies: 26
Views: 1662

1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance

Below is a chart comparing the 12 month returns of a value index versus a growth index. If you look at the magenta, this tracks the small cap value index 12 month gains versus the small cap growth index. The portions above the X-axis are the periods where value wins, and below the X-axis growth wins...
by BlueEars
Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is VBR a no-brainer over IJS?
Replies: 41
Views: 6355

Re: Is VBR a no-brainer over IJS?

Here is a comparison of VIOV, VSIAX, and VTWV for 5 years: http://i64.tinypic.com/2w1uum8.jpg Looks to me like the Small Cap Value Admiral mutual fund (VSIAX, similar to VBR) is an OK choice. Happens to be mine. I don't see a problem with some index changes if it is for the better. No way to keep al...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 19, 2016 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is VBR a no-brainer over IJS?
Replies: 41
Views: 6355

Re: Is VBR a no-brainer over IJS?

IJS is the no brainer investment choice. Sorry I did not post this years ago, but hindsight being 20/20 and all ... Cute but ... VG went to CRSP in 2013. Over the last 3 years the returns for IJS and VSIAX are identical at 10.99%. The CRSP index has outperformed the old MSCI index for small value o...
by BlueEars
Sun Dec 18, 2016 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can I use this as a carry on?
Replies: 10
Views: 1081

Re: Can I use this as a carry on?

I don't know what your requirements are for a carry-on. Mine would be: 1) In normal street use I can fit it on top of my roller bag and secure it to together (roller bag to be checked in at airport) 2) It is fairly light because if I have to move up stairs with this plus my roller bag, I want to do ...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Euro slides as Italy Votes No
Replies: 18
Views: 3107

Re: Euro slides as Italy Votes No

Grok, I agree and am glad you posted this as you know more about bonds than I do. I've not spent any time analyzing VG's take on foreign bonds (almost wrote "bombs").
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 05, 2016 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Euro slides as Italy Votes No
Replies: 18
Views: 3107

Re: Euro slides as Italy Votes No

Just curious. So the sp500 futures are worthless info unless one checks just before the open? In which case they are worthless as an info source to me.
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 05, 2016 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Euro slides as Italy Votes No
Replies: 18
Views: 3107

Re: Euro slides as Italy Votes No

... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-04/euro-slides-as-exit-polls-show-italy-voted-no-in-referendum ... https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures ... Euro at 1.05 S&P futures down 0.5% "The euro fell as initial projections showed a lead for the “no” campaign in Italy’...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 05, 2016 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees and risk-taking
Replies: 11
Views: 1338

Re: Retirees and risk-taking

I believe there's a general sentiment that retirees are risk-averse. Among those of you who are retired, what is the biggest investment risk you've taken since you've retired from work. By that I mean where you really felt uncomfortable making that decision. After the 2008 crash, where I followed b...
by BlueEars
Sat Dec 03, 2016 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 4413

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

Doc wrote: The blue line is the 5 yr break even. Does anyone belive that the market was predicting a 2% deflation rate in the last part of the year? I'm not sure what the market was predicting for inflation. It would not surprise me that the market was predicting more negative inflation than actual...
by BlueEars
Mon Nov 28, 2016 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 4413

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

Well a favorite tool of mine uses historical perspective. ... VPW. :happy
by BlueEars
Mon Nov 28, 2016 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 4413

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

... I think that too many people fail to understand that bonds are not cash or that duration is important. Or, when they do, they sometimes get lulled into believing that bonds move in opposite direction from stocks during crises. Yet, when I look as hard as I can at a (nominal) Treasury bond or TI...
by BlueEars
Mon Nov 28, 2016 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 4413

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

Just to put things into perspective: According to PortfolioVisualizer , $10,000 invested in a total-market TIPS index ETF (TIP) in January 2007 dropped to $10,421 from a top of $11,815, a 12% drop , whereas $10,000 invested in a total-market U.S. Stock index ETF (VTI) in January 2007 dropped to $5,...
by BlueEars
Fri Nov 25, 2016 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 4413

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

I guess this is why one should try to purchase newly issued TIPS or TIPS with a very low inflation factor. It is one thing to gain in and inflation scenario and then give back in a following deflation scenario. It is quite another (ugly) thing to buy TIPS that are loaded up with a high inflation fac...
by BlueEars
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yahoo finance site going down hill?
Replies: 22
Views: 3078

Re: Yahoo finance site going down hill?

Just want to mention I found one app for an ordered list of quotes. That is the Schwab app which you can use without being a Schwab customer. You can create a watchlist which is saved on your smartphone. Alternately it will display watchlists from your Schwab account if you have one.
by BlueEars
Wed Nov 23, 2016 5:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yahoo finance site going down hill?
Replies: 22
Views: 3078

Re: Yahoo finance site going down hill?

Thanks everyone for the comments so far. Again, here are the items which I have not found a (free) Yahoo replacement for. Shown in order of importance for me: 1) Historical data, especially the monthly fund/etf data. This is a big one for me. 2) An ordered list of quotes i.e. not just alphabetical. ...
by BlueEars
Tue Nov 22, 2016 12:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yahoo finance site going down hill?
Replies: 22
Views: 3078

Re: Yahoo finance site going down hill?

I just said Netscape to check that you guys are reading posts. No, actually it was a weird hiccup. Sorry. Actually using Firefox (up to date too). Going to bed now. What I like about Yahoo is that one can order the quotes (does not force alphabetical ordering) and also put in notes. Maybe this exist...
by BlueEars
Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yahoo finance site going down hill?
Replies: 22
Views: 3078

Yahoo finance site going down hill?

I've been happily using the Yahoo finance site over the years but recently it seems to have gone haywire. When I bring up my portfolio the page seems to freeze my Netscape browser on my PC. The price updates on some funds seem to be stale. When I look at the Yahoo app on my phone, the pricing is sta...
by BlueEars
Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: November Returns: TIPs, Small Value, High Yield Rules!
Replies: 16
Views: 2093

Re: November Returns: TIPs, Small Value, High Yield Rules!

... So for example from 1927-2015 the small cap premium averaged 3.3% (i.e. on average small cap stocks outperformed the S&P 500 by 3.3% points). but this outperformance was higher in the high inflation years of 1941-1951 (small cap premium was 5.2%) and 1973-1982 (small cap premium was 8.7%). ...
by BlueEars
Fri Nov 11, 2016 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for recommendations on aerobic exercise equip.
Replies: 55
Views: 2484

Re: Looking for recommendations on aerobic exercise equip.

Are these the YouTube videos I see on the web under "total immersion videos" ? The most useful resource I found in learning proper freestyle swimming technique was the " Effortless Endurance Self-Coaching Course" from Total Immersion. This is a series of videos and text lessons ...
by BlueEars
Fri Nov 11, 2016 12:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for recommendations on aerobic exercise equip.
Replies: 55
Views: 2484

Re: Looking for recommendations on aerobic exercise equip.

Grateful1 wrote:...
Previously a near non-swimmer, 4 months ago I decided to give this a try. I used the "Total Immersion" videos to help learn / self-teach swimming.
...

Are these the YouTube videos I see on the web under "total immersion videos" ?
by BlueEars
Fri Nov 11, 2016 12:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for recommendations on aerobic exercise equip.
Replies: 55
Views: 2484

Re: Looking for recommendations on aerobic exercise equip.

I am 64 yrs old. I am currently jogging 3.5 miles every other day. However, my knees are giving signs of wear and tear. So I am looking to reduce my jogging and replace it with some indoor aerobic exercise. I have a treadmill and a elliptical at home, but I do not enjoy using them. I also enjoy bik...
by BlueEars
Mon Nov 07, 2016 12:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: iWatch, FitBit or...?
Replies: 15
Views: 1320

Re: iWatch, FitBit or...?

This is a strange market. The name recognition seems to be incredibly strong for Fitbit. The product is less so.
by BlueEars
Sun Nov 06, 2016 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: iWatch, FitBit or...?
Replies: 15
Views: 1320

Re: iWatch, FitBit or...?

I would recommend the Vivofit 2 (by Garmin). I've used the Vivofit 1 for about 2+ years now. It has a good display you can see your number without a phone, it has a 1 year battery life (actually can go months longer), and you can swim with it on. I wear it 24/7. It is pretty cheap on Amazon and you ...
by BlueEars
Tue Nov 01, 2016 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did the Short Term Investment Grade Dividend go down so much for the month of September
Replies: 18
Views: 2667

Re: Why did the Short Term Investment Grade Dividend go down so much for the month of September

Why isolate the dividends? It seems total return is doing just fine.

Here is a 3 month chart of blue VFSUX (investment grade), orange VFISX (sh term treasury), and green VBISX (sh term index):

Image
by BlueEars
Mon Oct 31, 2016 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Long should Updates for Windows 10 take to load??
Replies: 22
Views: 1576

Re: How Long should Updates for Windows 10 take to load??

I just do a hard shutdown when the disc whirring goes on too long. When it comes back up the install process proceeds in a normal fashion.
by BlueEars
Sun Oct 30, 2016 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund
Replies: 55
Views: 6220

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund

Interesting M* article on the core bond fund: http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=775899 The portfolio had 27% of its assets in U.S. Treasuries as of Sept. 30 compared to 40% in the Barclays Aggregate. However, Core Bond also had 7% in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, whil...
by BlueEars
Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE, SCHMAPE? WSJ piece raises questions
Replies: 38
Views: 3440

Re: CAPE, SCHMAPE? WSJ piece raises questions

... In round numbers, call it -4% to +10% real return for likely range of growth and valuation. :idea: Note that to get close to the historical average real return 6.67%, would require either increase in valuation to PE10=36 or above-average earnings growth, or some combination. Boy, it is so refre...

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