Search found 3453 matches

by BlueEars
Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Excel 2010 and Windows 7 -- Where to go from here?
Replies: 39
Views: 2705

Re: Excel 2010 and Windows 7 -- Where to go from here?

Office 365 Home for $99/year is the way to stay current. $69.99 for 1 PC/Mac. https://products.office.com/en-us/office-365-home I am still running an old version of MS Office. When I eventually decide to get a new version of the Office (Word, PPT, Excel), is a subscription the only option? I don't ...
by BlueEars
Sat Jul 08, 2017 6:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Excel 2010 and Windows 7 -- Where to go from here?
Replies: 39
Views: 2705

Re: Excel 2010 and Windows 7 -- Where to go from here?

My transition to Win 10 went very smoothly. I have Excel 2007. No issues.

If I were getting a new system I would probably stick with Windows and Excel 2016.
by BlueEars
Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: swimming goggles
Replies: 29
Views: 2019

Re: swimming goggles

My goggles occasionally leaked. Maybe this is standard procedure for some swimmers but I had to discover this myself. I find that when I gently press in on them there is a slight suction created and water doesn't seep in. Happy eyes now. :happy
by BlueEars
Sat Jun 17, 2017 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who mixes android and iOS
Replies: 24
Views: 1120

Re: Who mixes android and iOS

jharkin wrote:Well the deed is done... Wife saw this conversation and went out and grabbed me a 32GB iPad 2017 with a target coupon as a fathers day gift.

Like it so far.... I didn't realize how horibly slow and buggy the Nexus10 had gotten. This could be trouble. :twisted:

Happy Father's Day. :happy
by BlueEars
Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who mixes android and iOS
Replies: 24
Views: 1120

Re: Who mixes android and iOS

... But I am getting tired of GARBAGE google tablets. Ive been through a Zoom, a Nexus, a Nexus10. All of them have had problems. stability issues, random crashing, poor app selection. The Nexus10 is in really bad shape and overdue for a replacement but I just dont see anything compelling out there...
by BlueEars
Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio
Replies: 15
Views: 2420

Re: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio

M* shows that for VSIAX (small cap value admiral) the price/prospective_earnings = 17.7 .

That current VG figure is probably bogus. Here is the history I've recorded from those VG supplied figures:

Image
by BlueEars
Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?
Replies: 103
Views: 6872

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Someone observed that you have to take some major roller coaster rides when investing in growth stocks. Said another way, look at some of those charts (on a log scale) for the ones you've mentioned. You will see some deep dives (AMZN took a dive in the early 2000's). Then you may look at some former...
by BlueEars
Sat May 27, 2017 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is international a momentum investment?
Replies: 16
Views: 1522

Re: Is international a momentum investment?

The performance of international funds has been surging for the last year after years of underperforming. Is this an indication of positive momentum? I may have read too many factor based investing threads! DMW I think international funds are in a momentum surge. Will it continue? I have no idea. I...
by BlueEars
Sun May 14, 2017 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 182
Views: 27101

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

I was comparing 60/40 versus 40/60 using the VPW tool and a start date of 1966 for the simulation. This is the worst period in modern history for a retirement portfolio of standard construction. It seemed to show similar results for both AA's, not quite what I would have guessed. But this nugget of ...
by BlueEars
Sat May 13, 2017 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 182
Views: 27101

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

I've looked at some VPW scenarios and it seems that there is not a whole lot of difference in portfolio outcomes between 60/40 and 40/60 in really bad markets (like the period 1966 to 1980). But simulations don't seem to cover the current low real bond rates very well. So I'm OK right now with 60/40...
by BlueEars
Tue May 02, 2017 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 170
Views: 31778

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

... To avoid whipsaws I suggest to add an unemployment filter: if unemployment rate is below its 12 SMA, you stay invested either in SPX or International equities, if unemployment rate is above its 12 SMA you check the absolute momentum filter (vanilla GEM) What do you think about adding this filte...
by BlueEars
Sun Apr 30, 2017 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yelp, no way to contact them. Experiences?
Replies: 1
Views: 615

Yelp, no way to contact them. Experiences?

I've used Yelp for some years. Wrote positive and some negative reviews. Then recently I wrote 2 reviews. One was positive and one was kind of negative. The reviews did not appear because they have cancelled my login. They claimed I had 2 logins. The one they cancelled I had for years. I don't know ...
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1548

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

Now, using a buffering mechanism does seem like a good thing, but the overlapping bands are really wide, and it seems to me that this would dilute the value effect. Any thoughts from mathematically-inclined folks? Is CRSP doing the right thing? Yes they are. As stlutz points out, the practice is co...
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1548

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

Jo, I guess in the end we all just want more money to fund our other desires. So if factors predict returns, I'm all for them. But I'm not convinced they are predictive. Maybe I've missed some presentations on the forum which show the superiority of a factor view of investing. That said, I do have a...
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1548

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

Aside from my belief that the factor tilts are silly, if it was something you were trying to do for whatever reason, it looks like Vanguard's Small-Value is the least small (SmB) and least valuey (HmL) compared to Russell 2000 Value and S&P 600 Small-Cap Value index funds PV Link Thanks, the fa...
by BlueEars
Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1548

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

Now, using a buffering mechanism does seem like a good thing, but the overlapping bands are really wide, and it seems to me that this would dilute the value effect. Any thoughts from mathematically-inclined folks? Is CRSP doing the right thing? Well... Any taker? :?: What's wrong with my take? I te...
by BlueEars
Sun Apr 16, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1548

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

I compared CRSP to MSCI index results a few years ago. This table kind of convinced me that CRSP was a good change for VG (and me):

Image
by BlueEars
Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remembering the Crash of 1987
Replies: 66
Views: 6822

Re: Remembering the Crash of 1987

... The thing about 2008-09 which is potentially very misleading, is the sharpness and speed of the recovery. Longer term bear markets have a way of shaking the speculators out, decisively, setting the basis for the next bull run. This time, the "lesson" was about jumping quickly back in ...
by BlueEars
Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remembering the Crash of 1987
Replies: 66
Views: 6822

Re: Remembering the Crash of 1987

... I cannot emphasize enough read Benoit Mandelbrot's The Misbehavior of Markets. Equity returns are much more likely to be fractal than anything else. I did look at the reviews for Mandelbrot's book here: https://smile.amazon.com/Misbehavior-Markets-Fractal-Financial-Turbulence/dp/0465043577/ref=...
by BlueEars
Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remembering the Crash of 1987
Replies: 66
Views: 6822

Re: Remembering the Crash of 1987

Agree very much with Valuethinker's last post.
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 04, 2017 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 6823

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

There is one LT corporate bond Baa data set here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAA

It shows the width of the yield spike in the early 1930's was much wider (longer) and higher then the one seen in 2008-2009.
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 6823

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

... Yes, ok, the corporates had that hiccup in 2008. They dropped by 7%, and quickly recovered (then kind of soared). There was a similar hiccup in 1974 (not visible on the growth chart), with a 6% drop and a recovery the year after. That's definitely not risk in my book, it's just a hiccup. Treasu...
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 04, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remembering the Crash of 1987
Replies: 66
Views: 6822

Re: Remembering the Crash of 1987

When I recall events like 1987, I like to think that there are perhaps ways to avoid such a drop. In late September 1987 the 10 year Treasury yielded 9.6% when inflation was running something like 4%. Quite a good real yield and so one might have adjusted AA accordingly. I did not have such a perspe...
by BlueEars
Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:
Replies: 58
Views: 6823

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) One Year on:

I have a lot of VFIDX (Intermediate Investment Grade) which has an M* credit rating of A. It took quite a tumble in the fall of 2008. The AA rated VBTLX (total bond mkt) did much better in that equity decline period. VCORX has fewer corporates (29% versus 67% for VFIDX). Would one expect a better pe...
by BlueEars
Sun Mar 12, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2017 Honda CRV: anyone shopping or buying?
Replies: 26
Views: 3749

Re: 2017 Honda CRV: anyone shopping or buying?

... Your satisfaction with the 2017 model, will partly depend on what you are used to driving. We find the 2017 noticeable quieter and smoother on the highway than any other CR-V model we owned. CR-V power train as have never been gutsy. They are closer to being family station-wagons than true 'uti...
by BlueEars
Tue Mar 07, 2017 12:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Camry Redesign
Replies: 61
Views: 6571

Re: Camry Redesign

We don't drive all that much and often rent a car on fly/drive trips. I was reading good things about the Honda CRV 2017 and nowadays DW demands heated seats.

We currently have a Honda CRV 2004 and it has been very reliable. Good road clearance for trips like we just did to Death Valley.
by BlueEars
Sun Mar 05, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Camry Redesign
Replies: 61
Views: 6571

Re: Camry Redesign

How many safety improvements have there been on cars since you bought your 2000 Camry? Quite a lot, I think. Will the 2018 Camry be better than the 2017 in this regard? Certainly yes. However, how does that balance out against the risk of driving your 17 year old car another year (or two) vs. drivi...
by BlueEars
Thu Feb 23, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Run Ups - Now vs. Then
Replies: 88
Views: 7022

Re: Market Run Ups - Now vs. Then

What worries me is most of the above comments seem so sensible to me. What am I missing? Well there was the market decline of 1962. Remember that? :wink: The yield curve was steep as it is now. But PE10's relative to the previous 30 years were extremely high (in the 99% area). Now PE10's are high bu...
by BlueEars
Sun Feb 19, 2017 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 730
Views: 218293

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Blueears, I like your concept and the modified spreadsheet (above) supporting it. It sounds like we're in a similar situation...retired and living off our our portfolios and, coincidentally, spending about 3.3% (this is prior to SS for me at this point). I've been very interested in VPW but haven't...
by BlueEars
Tue Jan 24, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 730
Views: 218293

Re: Actual withdrawal

Why does the spreadsheet ask you to enter your actual withdrawal? It doesn't seem used anywhere. You already enter your starting balance the next year, which seems to be what matters, so it's not clear why it asks for your actual withdrawal. Hi, I notice this is your first post here. Welcome. Are y...
by BlueEars
Mon Jan 23, 2017 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 730
Views: 218293

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Below is an example of this approach with the revised VPW. The couple had a $1M portfolio, drew $34000 from social security, and basically spent at a 3.1% rate from the portfolio. I don't quite follow the example. It seems like you're saying "the couple has a fixed need of $65,000 a year. $34,...
by BlueEars
Sun Jan 22, 2017 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 730
Views: 218293

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Some time ago we talked about using VPW and accumulating a reserve with the unspent year's money. One would invest this money in some low risk investment such as CD's or short term bonds or even Tbills. For those of us who don't need all the percentage VPW says we can spend, this can be used to even...
by BlueEars
Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short-Term Investment Grade or Short-Term Corporate Index?
Replies: 6
Views: 861

Re: Short-Term Investment Grade or Short-Term Corporate Index?

Tell me, what do you think about adding this 3rd bond fund? Thoughts on staying completely pure like Swensen recommends, vs adding some of these short corporates? I don't see a problem. I don't think one needs to put gurus up on a pedestal and follow their ideas, so do what you want. I can say that...
by BlueEars
Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth
Replies: 17
Views: 1938

Re: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth

Here is some PE data I have periodically lifted from the Vanguard site:

Image

The VBR pe is only about 10% above the May 2011 level. Also bonds are quite a bit lower yields (higher bond PE's).
by BlueEars
Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Doing email with a Chromebook
Replies: 16
Views: 1652

Re: Doing email with a Chromebook

If I were planning to use a dedicated system for finances (accessing banks etc) I think I would avoid using that same device for mail -- or at a minimum, only use it to access a dedicated email account that I used only for password resets. Can you elaborate? Finances involves email - getting transa...
by BlueEars
Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yahoo Finance redesign
Replies: 49
Views: 6553

Re: Yahoo Finance redesign

I hope people continue to use the Yahoo finance site for some info. I'm sure their funding is not what it used to be but it still provides some important things like: 1) Historical data - I haven't found a replacement for their daily and monthly historical data 2) The portfolio function continues to...
by BlueEars
Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing: you must pay for your lunch -- sometimes a lot.
Replies: 52
Views: 6515

Re: Value investing: you must pay for your lunch -- sometimes a lot.

.... What are you even looking at? Returns data? That doesn't tell you about relative factor exposure. In any case I'm not really seeing it, though I guess you could have some value definitions that would make it more true. Both CRSP and MSCI split value/growth in half, and CRSP if anything else is...
by BlueEars
Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing: you must pay for your lunch -- sometimes a lot.
Replies: 52
Views: 6515

Re: Value investing: you must pay for your lunch -- sometimes a lot.

Taylor As I have pointed out in past the returns to large value have outperformed over the period you have chosen, it's just not the case for Vanguard funds because they just don't get you significant exposure to value. To see the difference in returns between value and growth you should not use Va...
by BlueEars
Sat Dec 31, 2016 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 21258

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

As a retiree I have to make a decision on spending versus portfolio safety. I think many on the forum get this and make choices that are balanced.

Some on the forum are going to seriously underspend in retirement out of extreme conservatism. I guess that is not the worst fate.
by BlueEars
Thu Dec 29, 2016 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ownership of international stock during wars
Replies: 25
Views: 2402

Re: Ownership of international stock during wars

For the right war, you might want to think about selling your American stocks too. It's possible that the United States will be impacted in a devastating and lasting way by a war involving major powers. Instead of capitulating, some power may opt to push the button. That wasn't a risk for us in WWI...
by BlueEars
Thu Dec 29, 2016 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ownership of international stock during wars
Replies: 25
Views: 2402

Re: Ownership of international stock during wars

War is one of those huge unknowns. In WW2 the US market went up starting in mid-1939 as the markets anticipated war profits from European fighting. But when the Nazis invaded France in May 1940, the market dropped a lot and very quickly ... about 20% within days. The battle of Midway was the US mark...
by BlueEars
Thu Dec 29, 2016 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 21258

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

... For example, I have a boat... Going from zero boats to one boat made me very happy. Going from one boat to a larger boat would barely change my happiness at all. Going from one boat to two boats would probably DIMINISH my happiness... :) Zero boats makes me very happy. :wink: Viva la difference.
by BlueEars
Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 21258

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

I wonder how Bernstein (and Larry Swedroe above) would critique the VPW tool. That allows one to run with bad start year's of 1930 or 1968. That is how I set our AA. But what about the start year 2017? The article discussed the different outcomes for a bond heavy versus stock heavy one starting in t...
by BlueEars
Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance
Replies: 26
Views: 2026

Re: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance

billyv wrote:For me, the big takeaway from BlueEars' chart is the speed with which markets go from favoring value to growth and back again. If you've ever doubted the futility of market timing, here's the proof -- and in Technicolor hues to boot!

I work hard to make nicely colored charts. :happy
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remember what it was like before the recession?
Replies: 81
Views: 9217

Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

... Now as for the S&P500 being up only 5% in 2007...yes. But the OP asks "what was it like before the recession?" Well, how far before the recession are we talking? Yes the S&P50 was up 5% in 2007 but from Jan 1 2006 - Dec 31 2007 it was up 22%: But from Jan 1 2003 - Dec 31 2007 ...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash
Replies: 8
Views: 1395

Re: Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash

That is what I'm doing. Using a plugin to selectively enable Flash. As I documented above, it doesn't always protect you if the site is screwed up.

Pandora has not yet shown a problem. But could it?
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash
Replies: 8
Views: 1395

Re: Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash

I've seen several "free" image hosting sites (ones people have linked to from this site) try to serve ransomware or other malware via Flash exploits. Do not use Flash, at all, ever. It's just too dangerous. Adobe Acrobat Reader is also too dangerous to use, especially if it has any browse...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash
Replies: 8
Views: 1395

Re: Scary experience with Tinypic + Flash

Normaldude, thanks for the tip. I'm glad you saw the same behavior so it's not likely something else on my system.
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market
Replies: 51
Views: 5777

Re: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market

Doc: what is your opinion of the actively-managed Vanguard Core Bond fund? Not my cup of Tea. I avoid long bonds and MBS. It underperforms TBM when Pimco total Return outperforms TBM. If I going to take credit and term risk (M* has it as BBB) I should at least get something for it. Moreover it only...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remember what it was like before the recession?
Replies: 81
Views: 9217

Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

... While things may be considered expensive now, I don't have the same feeling I did before the big crashes, like the economy was really running hot and it was scary. Does anyone else feel the same way? Interesting question you asked and I'll be curious to see the responses. It's hard to look back...

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