Search found 3353 matches

by BlueEars
Sat Sep 10, 2016 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 668
Views: 188929

Re: VPW and TSP

... Perhaps the way I can slightly correct for the extra risk of not having that year's money in cash, is to simply hold a bit fewer stocks than I planned otherwise (say 50% instead of 60%). It's too bad their withdrawal options are so limited, but the federal G fund is so good (and their expense r...
by BlueEars
Wed Sep 07, 2016 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 668
Views: 188929

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Some really good pointers in recent threads, thanks to all. I've been using VPW for the last 2 years or so. Some of the recent comments got me to dig deeper into the underlying formulas. In particular the formulas on the "Table" sheet which has: 1) The default stock/bond historical data us...
by BlueEars
Tue Sep 06, 2016 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 668
Views: 188929

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

so, in short: I was asking about how to calculate the savings one can retire on and subsequenclty "apply" VPW to Your savings is an input to VPW. Then VPW shows how that savings might have faired historically. The rest is left as an excise for the individual . We all have to consider our ...
by BlueEars
Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 668
Views: 188929

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal

the VPW data is only as good as the past bad economies will be reflected in future returns. Should we get something worse then start years like 1929 or 1968, we may have to cope in ways unknown. I am optimistic that VPW is a good tool for planning. Mid course corrections may be required. thank you ...
by BlueEars
Sun Sep 04, 2016 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 668
Views: 188929

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal

... My question here is: does the backtesting and other additional data in the other tabs support that VPW will be successful at not depleting your portfolio before the end of a, for example, 55 year retirement period is up (say for retirement at age 55 with depletion at age 110, for instance)? I g...
by BlueEars
Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value vs Growth - Depends on the Turnover Frequency?
Replies: 34
Views: 2074

Re: Value vs Growth - Depends on the Turnover Frequency?

I focus on only what I can invest in. So I tend to keep my own data updated. Here is the data for value versus growth for Vanguard funds. The very early data is from the MSCI indexes which VG was using between April 2003 and the recent changes to CRSP in 2013 (as I recall). So the 1993 to 2003 data...
by BlueEars
Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value vs Growth - Depends on the Turnover Frequency?
Replies: 34
Views: 2074

Re: Value vs Growth - Depends on the Turnover Frequency?

I focus on only what I can invest in. So I tend to keep my own data updated. Here is the data for value versus growth for Vanguard funds. The very early data is from the MSCI indexes which VG was using between April 2003 and the recent changes to CRSP in 2013 (as I recall). So the 1993 to 2003 data ...
by BlueEars
Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Blocking robot calls.
Replies: 61
Views: 4798

Re: Blocking robot calls.

I'd recommend that you get cell service that works with a wifi connection Good idea. Brings to mind Google's project Fi. Saves money too. I have a Nexus 6P and that will work on Google project Fi. Advantages are it uses T-Mobil, Sprint, US Cellular and wifi. Is reported to switch between wifi and c...
by BlueEars
Thu Sep 01, 2016 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends
Replies: 211
Views: 11165

Re: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends

Jo, I just used the VG admiral fund data. The 12 month returns for SV and SG agree with my numbers when I checked at M*: SV=VSIAX: http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=VSIAX&region=usa&culture=en_US SG=VSGAX: http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-...
by BlueEars
Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends
Replies: 211
Views: 11165

Re: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends

Here are the 12 month and 24 month numbers for Vanguard admiral funds. Still seems to be a decent return for value over growth:

Image
by BlueEars
Wed Aug 17, 2016 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?
Replies: 12
Views: 763

Re: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?

Thanks for the replies so far. It is an interesting issue to help answer why we are where we are and where equity markets might be going. This comment by the SF Fed President shows some of his reasons why interest rates are low (link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-15/fed-orthodoxy-s...
by BlueEars
Tue Aug 16, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?
Replies: 12
Views: 763

Re: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?

Interesting theoretical thoughts but my questions were more pragmatic investor oriented ones. Repeating from OP: So my question is, are the current high market valuations just a reflection of high valuations for stock's competitive alternative -- bonds? And a perhaps more difficult (unanswerable?) q...
by BlueEars
Tue Aug 16, 2016 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?
Replies: 12
Views: 763

Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?

I read this article by Hulbert with some concern: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-you-know-the-stock-market-is-hugely-overvalued-2016-08-16 Ignoring the hype title, I haven't seen a comparison of this nature before: ...an equally sobering picture is painted when we compare the current mar...
by BlueEars
Sun Aug 07, 2016 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cell phone and Carrier for Vancouver BC
Replies: 5
Views: 375

Re: Cell phone and Carrier for Vancouver BC

The Google phone Nexus 6P is now at $400. It is equivalent to an Iphone 6+ (in my opinion). You could sign up with Project Fi and get a really low monthly cost plan which uses TMobil + Sprint + Wifi. See this link: https://fi.google.com/about/faq/#network-and-coverage I have the 6P and used it seaml...
by BlueEars
Sun Aug 07, 2016 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice on visit to Yosemite
Replies: 34
Views: 2631

Re: Advice on visit to Yosemite

Hi BH'ers - Wife and I have scheduled our first visit to Yosemite National Park during the last week in September. ... I will guess that the crowds should have thinned out a lot in late Sept. Also try early morning walks, maybe along paths in the valley. Too many use their cars and I think it is im...
by BlueEars
Thu Aug 04, 2016 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trend following and bonds
Replies: 11
Views: 964

Re: Trend following and bonds

Forgot to mention, I have studied one experimental trend following approach not strictly involving moving averages. The data indicated intermediate Treasuries were a better bet then short term Treasuries overall since 1950. I haven't parsed that data into any particular downturns. We would kind of e...
by BlueEars
Thu Aug 04, 2016 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trend following and bonds
Replies: 11
Views: 964

Re: Trend following and bonds

As I understand it you are looking for safety once a trend following scheme takes you out of stocks. That would seem to indicate a possible bad economic environment ahead. I assume you mean a trend scheme which is fairly slow to take you out with perhaps fewer whipsaws. Trend following is not predic...
by BlueEars
Thu Aug 04, 2016 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trend following and bonds
Replies: 11
Views: 964

Re: Trend following and bonds

I would go with short term to intermediate term Treasuries. If inflation is concern then 2 year Treas. If deflation then 5 year. Use equivalent fund or etf.
by BlueEars
Thu Jul 14, 2016 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yahoo Finance redesign
Replies: 42
Views: 4178

Re: Yahoo Finance redesign

I use Yahoo finance for tracking some portfolio choices. Seems to be similar for that function. Almost had a heart attack looking for the historical data. It is still there but more obscure now, I think. Mostly I want to look at monthly data going way back. It turns out there are two "apply&quo...
by BlueEars
Wed Jun 29, 2016 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 160
Views: 24074

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

Thanks dbr. I was somewhat tempted by 5 year TIPS in December 2015 at about +0.4%. But yesterday they were at -0.32% so not to my liking. Short term TIPS I've never really contemplated buying. I honestly can not see much difference between a short term bond fund and a short term TIPS fund. Is there...
by BlueEars
Wed Jun 29, 2016 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 160
Views: 24074

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

Thanks dbr.

I was somewhat tempted by 5 year TIPS in December 2015 at about +0.4%. But yesterday they were at -0.32% so not to my liking.

Short term TIPS I've never really contemplated buying.
by BlueEars
Wed Jun 29, 2016 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 160
Views: 24074

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

I found it compelling that Vanguard experts removed the Intermediate TIPS fund from the Target portfolios. I looked up the Target Retirement 2010 Fund (VTENX) and sure enough the intermediate TIPS are not there. Right now for bonds it is at 15% in short term TIPS: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/f...
by BlueEars
Sun Jun 26, 2016 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aswath Damodaran On How To Invest Internationally
Replies: 7
Views: 1069

Re: Aswath Damodaran On How To Invest Internationally

... It should be noted that both William Bernstein and Jonathan Clements are advocating small, not large, changes in portfolios I have considerable respect for all three individuals, so I'm at a loss of what to make of this. I appreciate what you are saying about name recognition and divergences of...
by BlueEars
Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: VG password security (for phoning into rep)
Replies: 19
Views: 814

Re: VG password security (for phoning into rep)

A long time ago I set up a password with the Vanguard rep for phone conversations. I've been very careful with my selection for the computer login and password. But haven't really worried about the security of the phone-in password. Now I am wondering about it. I normally just call in from our home...
by BlueEars
Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: VG password security (for phoning into rep)
Replies: 19
Views: 814

Re: VG password security (for phoning into rep)

I am a little disturbed by the people who say "voice verification works for me". Any security measure must be measured by not only how well it lets the right people in but by how well it keeps the wrong people out. So unless you have had a bunch of you're friends call up and get rejected ...
by BlueEars
Sat Jun 25, 2016 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: VG password security (for phoning into rep)
Replies: 19
Views: 814

Re: VG password security (for phoning into rep)

I have an old landline phone connection using fairly new Panasonic cordless phones. Could also use my smartphone. For others (and myself) who might not remember about this, I looked up the VG reference on Voice Verification and found this: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/c106.pdf?2210065141 This i...
by BlueEars
Sat Jun 25, 2016 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: VG password security (for phoning into rep)
Replies: 19
Views: 814

Re: VG password security (for phoning into rep)

The voice ID might be a better approach. I don't know how well it works.

I would imagine it is more secure then the phone-in password -- or is it? I would imagine that for a married couple, each would need to set one up.
by BlueEars
Sat Jun 25, 2016 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: VG password security (for phoning into rep)
Replies: 19
Views: 814

VG password security (for phoning into rep)

A long time ago I set up a password with the Vanguard rep for phone conversations. I've been very careful with my selection for the computer login and password. But haven't really worried about the security of the phone-in password. Now I am wondering about it. I normally just call in from our home ...
by BlueEars
Fri Jun 17, 2016 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Visiting Sequoia National Park- recommendations?
Replies: 10
Views: 599

Re: Visiting Sequoia National Park- recommendations?

King's Canyon is very impressive. In early July it could be quite hot. If you go, I would start out very early in the morning and maybe return towards noon. There is a nice short nature loop trail at Zumwalt Meadows near the road's end. Ask at the ranger station in Sequoia for conditions there prior...
by BlueEars
Sun Jun 12, 2016 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to interpret the current rate structures?
Replies: 1
Views: 277

How to interpret the current rate structures?

I'm just trying to understand the current rate picture in the context of historical data. To this end I produced this FRED chart: http://i68.tinypic.com/24p9quc.jpg We know that the 10 year Treasury (RED) is very low. Thus it follows that the Treasury spread (10 year minus 3 month Treasury, BLUE) is...
by BlueEars
Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Bonds - "A Key Asset Class Most Investors Completely Ignore"
Replies: 76
Views: 6281

Re: Int'l Bonds - "A Key Asset Class Most Investors Completely Ignore"

I owned a fair amount of TIPS going into the 2008 debacle. Found out they were not as liquid as I would have thought even though they were US Treasury bonds. They did recover but I did not like the ride. Intermediate investment grade corporate bonds fell harder than TIPs, but the emotional response...
by BlueEars
Wed Jun 08, 2016 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Bonds - "A Key Asset Class Most Investors Completely Ignore"
Replies: 76
Views: 6281

Re: Int'l Bonds - "A Key Asset Class Most Investors Completely Ignore"

I owned a fair amount of TIPS going into the 2008 debacle. Found out they were not as liquid as I would have thought even though they were US Treasury bonds. They did recover but I did not like the ride. With foreign bonds and especially EM bonds, I'd be concerned about a severe decline lasting seve...
by BlueEars
Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Bonds - "A Key Asset Class Most Investors Completely Ignore"
Replies: 76
Views: 6281

Re: Int'l Bonds - "A Key Asset Class Most Investors Completely Ignore"

I hold international bonds, though I am underweight the asset class. My reasons as follows: 1. International bonds are the world's largest asset class...how can one ignore them? 2. US treasuries are viewed by many as the ultimate 'safe asset', yet (a) they are lower-rated than those of some other n...
by BlueEars
Tue Jun 07, 2016 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Bonds - "A Key Asset Class Most Investors Completely Ignore"
Replies: 76
Views: 6281

Re: "A Key Asset Class Most Investors Completely Ignore"

According to M* VG total bond market has about 9% non-US. VFIDX intermediate IG bonds has 19% non-US. Yes, but as recommended by the article, and Vanguard, etc, this is simply not enough international bond exposure. Reading the last last paragraph of the linked article it would seem a combo of BND ...
by BlueEars
Tue Jun 07, 2016 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Bonds - "A Key Asset Class Most Investors Completely Ignore"
Replies: 76
Views: 6281

Re: "A Key Asset Class Most Investors Completely Ignore"

According to M* VG total bond market has about 9% non-US. VFIDX intermediate IG bonds has 19% non-US.
by BlueEars
Sat May 28, 2016 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this
Replies: 211
Views: 50633

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

fortyofforty wrote:There is strength in a herd, here. A Bogleherd, if you will.

Well yes, there are some interesting and worthwhile ideas here. But in the end we are each going to have to make up our own minds. Just repeating a mantra or following a leader... not for me.
by BlueEars
Sat May 28, 2016 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this
Replies: 211
Views: 50633

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

... Reading passage is sobering to me. My late husband was managing our portfolio back then. (He consulted with me on big picture investment policy stuff but I didn't deal with monitoring the market, opening statements, etc.) Since he was a finance professor and consultant, he had to stay on top of...
by BlueEars
Sat May 28, 2016 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this
Replies: 211
Views: 50633

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

Looking back, and knowing what you know now - would you have done the same thing (sell off assets to cover 3 years of expenses)? Looking back, would you have had enough cash assets to 'ride out' the worst of the market storm? I define market storm as September 2008 through April 2009. I am asking i...
by BlueEars
Fri May 27, 2016 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this
Replies: 211
Views: 50633

Re: Thank you all..this is what I am doing

.... As I head to retirement at end of years and thanks to this old post from Sheepdog, I plan to have 3 years expense in cash + 3 years in CD. I fear history will repeat itself. One could also consider 3 years in a Treasury ladder instead of cash. Or even a short term Treasury fund. Treasuries did...
by BlueEars
Fri May 13, 2016 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are corporate bonds a better deal then BAA10Y suggests?
Replies: 7
Views: 722

Re: Are corporate bonds a better deal then BAA10Y suggests?

Thanks, I guess I was a bit muddled on this. The real rates are all that matters. So the spreads are a good measure over different periods regardless of absolute rates.
by BlueEars
Fri May 13, 2016 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are corporate bonds a better deal then BAA10Y suggests?
Replies: 7
Views: 722

Re: Are corporate bonds a better deal then BAA10Y suggests?

I think you're on the right track. You're also looking at Baa corporates, that's one category above high yield. I believe there are likely some energy companies in that rating category about to drift into high yield. You didn't want to discuss risk, but I think that's part of why you're sensing a b...
by BlueEars
Fri May 13, 2016 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are corporate bonds a better deal then BAA10Y suggests?
Replies: 7
Views: 722

Are corporate bonds a better deal then BAA10Y suggests?

When I think of corporate bond rates versus treasury bond rates, I'm reminded of this Fed graph (BAA10Y): http://i68.tinypic.com/141v3tl.jpg This would suggest that the spread is pretty large right now over the time period since 1987. It ranks at the 80 percentile of spreads since 1987. Then I thoug...
by BlueEars
Sat May 07, 2016 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 668
Views: 188929

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Our portfolio is currently 60/40 and I like VPW as a basic guide. Would go to 40/60 when specific conditions are met. Would also go to all Treasury's for bonds under specific conditions. The floor I think of as being set by the final depletion age of something like 110. SS also helps for floor.
by BlueEars
Mon Apr 11, 2016 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappearing premiums!
Replies: 150
Views: 18146

Re: Disappearing premiums!

forget it
by BlueEars
Sat Apr 09, 2016 9:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?
Replies: 533
Views: 65432

Re: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?

After the Win 10 upgrade our HP Photosmart printer software would not work for scan. Tried a few things but they failed. So I bought an HP4520 printer for about $65 at Bestbuy. So far it's much better then the old printer which was an early wifi printer. Sometimes one just has to shell out a few $'s...
by BlueEars
Thu Apr 07, 2016 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in Roth?
Replies: 12
Views: 1383

Re: Bonds in Roth?

In recent years I've kept the AA for Roth's the same as that for tIRA's. Would be interested in thoughtful arguments why this isn't a good idea. If the market looks bad to me (inverted yield curve, high valuations, unemployment ticking up) I would be inclined to let the tIRA take the equity hit and ...
by BlueEars
Sat Mar 26, 2016 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?
Replies: 533
Views: 65432

Re: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?

My Win 10 experience has been very good except for getting my older HP photosmart printer's scanner software to work. I might have to replace the printer to get scanning back but can still print out files.
by BlueEars
Fri Mar 18, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you time premiums?
Replies: 18
Views: 1941

Re: Can you time premiums?

A few comments: 1) If a great timing system were uncovered in the study would we be reading about it? 2) Is this an annual study, i.e. look at data, buy and hold for 1 year, look at data again? Would seem a monthly process is better to study. 3) If individuals are trading (growth vs value) funds inf...
by BlueEars
Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bogleheads Code (my short version)
Replies: 27
Views: 5222

Re: The Bogleheads Code (my short version)

When does Code = Religion ?

Can one post here if he doesn't sign up? :wink:

Is there forgiveness? Tolerance?
by BlueEars
Tue Mar 08, 2016 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Under the hood of 5 multifactor funds
Replies: 44
Views: 4703

Re: Under the hood of 5 multifactor funds

Thanks Robert, that is very interesting information. Adds impetus to my lowering the Vanguard LV:MV ratio.

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