Search found 3511 matches

by BlueEars
Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 21
Views: 1604

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

Speaking of the Treasury term premium, I recently took the Simba data and looked at how the short term Treasuries did versus the intermediate Treasuries in the 1950's through the early 1970's. Seems that the short term Treasuries returned more then the intermediates more often then not as rates rose...
by BlueEars
Sun Nov 05, 2017 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard changed their way of computing PE ratios
Replies: 24
Views: 3325

Re: Vanguard changed their way of computing PE ratios

I got in the habit of recording VG's PE data roughly annually. Here is the data: https://s6.postimg.org/v4e7cooa9/VG_pe_data.jpg Just saw this thread and now I know why the major changes occurred. Thanks. It looks like this really affected the SV and SG funds. Maybe this illustrates the difficulty i...
by BlueEars
Sun Nov 05, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone planning on getting the new Pixel phone?
Replies: 140
Views: 9421

Re: Anyone planning on getting the new Pixel phone?

I would eventually like to replace my Nexus 6P with a Pixel 2XL. The trade in value right now says about $150 for the Nexus 6P. So the pricing sounds reasonable. So I'm reading this and other reviews with interest. A bit concerned about the screen issues and I'm hoping for more clarity in the coming...
by BlueEars
Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leading indicators [published] from the FED
Replies: 17
Views: 1100

Re: Leading indicators [published] from the FED

... Even *after* a Yield Curve inversion the stock market can have 12+ months of positive equity performance. But I'd still consider it a useful signal of economic/market conditions. That is an important caveat. The previous stock market high was in November 2007 as I recall. Looking it up I see th...
by BlueEars
Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leading indicators [published] from the FED
Replies: 17
Views: 1100

Re: Leading indicators [published] from the FED

... Does anyone here have familiarity with what these indicators *are*, and what they *mean*? (And which components could be leading to a lower reading?). I know the Yield curve is "flattening" as a trend at the moment, and that is a component. ... I would agree with nisprius that the current pictu...
by BlueEars
Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leading indicators [published] from the FED
Replies: 17
Views: 1100

Re: Leading indicators [published] from the FED

Here is the explanation for the Leading Indicators for the US: The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state's coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units...
by BlueEars
Sun Oct 29, 2017 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG
Replies: 28
Views: 3274

Re: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG

Recently we experienced something that wasn't suppose to happen where we lived ... major league historic fires that destroyed lives and property. We personally came out OK but bad things can happen. Even if one is OK, trauma can remain. In the financial area, bad things really did happen in the 1930...
by BlueEars
Sun Oct 29, 2017 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG
Replies: 28
Views: 3274

Re: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG

.... Disclaimer obviously that this could all be wrong, and it all matters less than equity allocation anyway. This is not going to be make-or-break for anybody unless inflation goes crazy and we have an extreme tail event. Yes, I can agree with this. Still it is intellectually satisfying to try to...
by BlueEars
Sun Oct 29, 2017 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG
Replies: 28
Views: 3274

Re: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG

... My personal preference is a 0.0/0.5 credit[default]/term load target in fixed income (had same target over last 15 years). i.e. intermediate treasuries Thanks for your comments Robert. How did you arrive at intermediate Treasuries versus short term Treasuries? I know that there should be a term...
by BlueEars
Sun Oct 29, 2017 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG
Replies: 28
Views: 3274

Re: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG

I find myself with the good doctor on this topic. You can fairly easily replicate Corporate Bond exposure with a stock/treasury bond mix (Term + Credit). If you want a 10% Corporate Bond allocation, you can just split that into roughly 5% stocks and 5% treasuries and find a very similar outcome . A...
by BlueEars
Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG
Replies: 28
Views: 3274

Re: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG

Thanks for the replies here. I took the Simba data since 1976 (the ST IG data started in 1976) and constructed 5 year rolling returns for some bond choices. So, for instance, the first 1980 result covers the years 1976 to 1980. Tbill's were winners in the raging inflation years to about 1981. In gen...
by BlueEars
Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG
Replies: 28
Views: 3274

Re: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG

Bernstein only likes short-term Treasury bonds and CDs. He is not a fan of corporate bonds. Here is an article by Bernstein summarizing his approach: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-case-for-minimizing-risk-in-your-bond-holdings-1445220146 Disclosure: I'm not a fan of Bernstein's approach on a str...
by BlueEars
Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG
Replies: 28
Views: 3274

Re: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG

I included the Total Bond Market so that we can see the rising inflation period performance from 1976 to 1981. Excerpt from the Simba spreadsheet:

Image
by BlueEars
Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG
Replies: 28
Views: 3274

Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG

I came across the Bernstein Coward's Portfolio shown here: https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/william-bernsteins-cowards-portfolio/ In it he puts the bonds into Short Term bonds. I think he is referring to 1 year corporate bonds but not sure about this. Was he trying to protect against inflation with t...
by BlueEars
Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 242
Views: 68464

Re: Stay the course

The closing price of the S&P 500 Index was 969 on the last day in October, 2008 (the month you posted your message). Today the S&P 500 Index hit an all-time high of 2,137. How soon we forget. It's been about 15 months since Taylor's post above, and literally yesterday I read another post complainin...
by BlueEars
Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lastpass on iPhone easy to use?
Replies: 16
Views: 1205

Re: Lastpass on iPhone easy to use?

I have used LastPass on both iPhone and Android - it is integrated system wide in Android beautifully, on iPhone it is a royal pain to use. This is just one of the reasons why I gave up on iPhone. I had a Nexus 5X, it died so I tried iPhone 7, I just couldn't adjust so I sold it and bought a Samsun...
by BlueEars
Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lastpass on iPhone easy to use?
Replies: 16
Views: 1205

Re: Lastpass on iPhone easy to use?

I have used LastPass on both iPhone and Android - it is integrated system wide in Android beautifully, on iPhone it is a royal pain to use. This is just one of the reasons why I gave up on iPhone. I had a Nexus 5X, it died so I tried iPhone 7, I just couldn't adjust so I sold it and bought a Samsun...
by BlueEars
Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lastpass on iPhone easy to use?
Replies: 16
Views: 1205

Re: Lastpass on iPhone easy to use?

There is a safari extension in the latest version of the app, look under the security menu to enable it. Seems to work quite well for me. I think this is what I used on the iPad. But the usage is kind of ugly and not intuitive as I mentioned above. Maybe I am being too picky as most apps I use keep...
by BlueEars
Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lastpass on iPhone easy to use?
Replies: 16
Views: 1205

Re: Lastpass on iPhone easy to use?

For iOS, it depends on the app. Some apps have a small indicator in the fields that you can hit to fill the relevant data from LastPass. For others, you need to copy/paste the username and/or password from the LastPass app. While not seamless in all cases, it's about a 10-15 second headache. It see...
by BlueEars
Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lastpass on iPhone easy to use?
Replies: 16
Views: 1205

Re: Lastpass on iPhone easy to use?

Unless I'm doing it wrong, it's a little annoying. I go back and forth between the app I'm opening and lastpass. I copy/paste the ID/PW between the two apps. I don't have an iPhone but set things up on the iPad. It seemed complex to get it going. Then one can get the fill in, at least in the Safari...
by BlueEars
Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lastpass on iPhone easy to use?
Replies: 16
Views: 1205

Lastpass on iPhone easy to use?

I have a Google Nexus 6P and Lastpass is relatively easy to use on it. Just select the app (like Vanguard), Lastpass asks for the fingerprint login, and then the app's login/password becomes available via a popup. On my iPad it does not work so intuitively. And on the iPad it takes several taps to j...
by BlueEars
Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 242
Views: 68464

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]

I posted a bit on this thread starting in 2008. A few thoughts: 1) The VPW tool was not available back then. It is excellent for showing how one's AA would fair with spending in a bad sequence. It can be modified easily (assuming some spreadsheet knowledge) to use a more common withdrawal plan then ...
by BlueEars
Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Too much house? (nervous 1st time buyer)
Replies: 57
Views: 4251

Re: Too much house? (nervous 1st time buyer)

Our first house was bought in Silicon Valley in 1975. So much depends on luck but all you have to really know is yourself.

Best of luck!
by BlueEars
Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds
Replies: 64
Views: 7548

Re: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds

Wasn’t the sale of 1930 a good time to buy equities? I know I was thrilled to be buying stock in 2008 when the markets were falling off the cliff. I have no idea how bonds were performing since I didn’t own any. But I can say with certainty that my position in Apple grew exponentially and recovered...
by BlueEars
Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds
Replies: 64
Views: 7548

Re: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds

David Scubadiver wrote:
Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:34 pm
Usually doesn’t do you any good when everything is melting and you want something to buy things on sale.
Did you look at that data I linked to?

Anyway, I don't buy in a crisis as the sale might become an even better sale and then an even better sale ... example, think of the sale in 1930.
by BlueEars
Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds
Replies: 64
Views: 7548

Re: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds

Cash is the only thing that is stable when a financial crisis hits. Whether it is worrh having versus investing in bonds is open to debate. Certainly there is a place for cash in a diversified portfolio. Bonds usually do better then cash in a crisis. See this for details: https://www.bogleheads.org...
by BlueEars
Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds
Replies: 64
Views: 7548

Re: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds

This discussion caused me to check on the performance of cash versus bonds. The following chart shows Tbills which were (I believe) 1 month Tbills. https://s6.postimg.org/5jdj3moo1/various_assets.jpg And here is another one in a somewhat different format. Shows maybe a little better how various eras...
by BlueEars
Thu Sep 28, 2017 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1727

Re: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

VG gives me the target RMD number at the beginning of the year. All I have to do is insure I meet this plus a smidgen more to be safe. Generally I do all this in a spreadsheet Our RMD is set up to be automatically taking out with withholding in December - not at Vg. If I then do another withdrawal ...
by BlueEars
Thu Sep 28, 2017 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1727

Re: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

^ Hmm. This is news to me; I agree with sport. My mom doesn't have any taxes taken out of her social security check and pays the year's taxes with her December 1 RMD. Every April, having received her "total tax" amount for the prior year, she arranges to have that same amount taken out of the curre...
by BlueEars
Wed Sep 27, 2017 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1727

Re: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

The way I interpret moneyman11's post, his mother was using the special RMD method which avoids having to pay the estimated tax earlier in the year. The SS income reporting requirement probably is not able to be included in that special RMD method. The IRS computers will be satisfied if the SS withh...
by BlueEars
Wed Sep 27, 2017 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1727

Re: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

I know about the hump and I'm on it. So our marginal rate will be quite high. Still the overall Fed tax is not too bad. Anyway, what I didn't appreciate is that one should satisfy a requirement that some SS must be withheld. That's something I've been indirectly doing through estimated taxes but usi...
by BlueEars
Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1727

Re: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

So the monthly spending picture might look like: January thru September: IRA withdrawal October thru December: Roth withdrawal December: pay Federal taxes with final RMD withdrawal from IRA Does this sound like a good strategy to take care of taxes and make things easy. Hi BlueEars, With the except...
by BlueEars
Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1727

Re: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

All the tIRA withdrawals will be RMD only. I will clear the transactions with my VG rep to make sure I understand reporting requirements... To my knowledge, there are no RMD-specific reporting requirements for us taxpayers. We get 1099-R forms same as in pre RMD years. If IRS suspects us of not wit...
by BlueEars
Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1727

Re: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

The concept of what you describe is very workable. Make sure that your tIRA provider allows you to make withholding changes late in the year so you don't get in a bind. I would designate early withdrawals as the RMD. That should clear any provider "don't make dumb mistakes" provisions. You should b...
by BlueEars
Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1727

Re: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

JW-Retired, I am just looking for confirmation or corrections, being an RMD newbie. Plus someone might have an alternate angle.
by BlueEars
Wed Sep 27, 2017 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1727

Re: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

Two comments: 1.Once you reach the age of 70.5, you are eligible to make QCD donations to charities. This counts towards your RMD, but is not taxable. You cannot do this until you are actually 70.5. 2. You do not say who your IRA custodian is. However, Vanguard will withhold income taxes for some s...
by BlueEars
Wed Sep 27, 2017 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1727

Re: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

What is "the sum calculated in #2"?? Also, don't forget that some of your SS is probably taxable. But yes, you can pay the *entire* Federal tax due, all at the end of the year IF it is paid in the form of "withholding", which could be via payroll withholding, or withholding from IRA distributions. ...
by BlueEars
Wed Sep 27, 2017 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1727

RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

Unfortunately next year I have to take RMD's. We have only 3 income sources: IRA distributions, Roth's, and Social Security. We have minimal taxable accounts. As I understand it retirees can pay their taxes through the RMD and not have to bother about doing estimated tax payments during the year. It...
by BlueEars
Sat Sep 23, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 157
Views: 12247

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

... When I go away for more than a couple weeks, without electronic communications and access to my paper mail, I create a web lock at Vanguard. That ensures that no one, even I, can gain access to my account until I un-lock it. Victoria Victoria, hadn't heard of this option. Do you set it via the ...
by BlueEars
Sat Sep 23, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 157
Views: 12247

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

.... I'm also failing to see how someone could social engineer information for a site like Vanguard if one has set up telephone voice identification authorization. Additionally, if one has set up gibberish security questions answers, security phrases, etc., how would it be possible to socially engi...
by BlueEars
Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 157
Views: 12247

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

.... I'm also failing to see how someone could social engineer information for a site like Vanguard if one has set up telephone voice identification authorization. Additionally, if one has set up gibberish security questions answers, security phrases, etc., how would it be possible to socially engi...
by BlueEars
Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 157
Views: 12247

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

The OP mentioned using TMobile which is also my provider. T-Mobile now allows a complex password so it does not have to be associated with your SS number. The PW can be something like SILLY4563 and is for verbal ID only. Maybe this is all the OP would have needed to prevent the original hack. Though...
by BlueEars
Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Questions on electronic security while traveling
Replies: 13
Views: 785

Re: Questions on electronic security while traveling

When I started this thread, I was thinking of situations like (1) you are trying to login to your airlines app to do a checkin, or (2) you are logging into a somewhat low sensitivity site like Bogleheads. I probably did not make this clear. I'm just looking for best practice examples. Most here are ...
by BlueEars
Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Questions on electronic security while traveling
Replies: 13
Views: 785

Re: Questions on electronic security while traveling

...If your browser is using https the traffic should be encrypted ... Does this mean going to https:Vanguard.com is relatively safe then? We typically use an Android phone, Android tablet, or an iPad to connect to the hotspot while on the road. All the cyber security issues and talks are making me ...
by BlueEars
Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Questions on electronic security while traveling
Replies: 13
Views: 785

Re: Questions on electronic security while traveling

Thanks, I should look into 2 FA authentication for this particular issue.

It just occurred to me that I can set the smartphone to airplane mode (no wifi or cellular) to get at passwords on Lastpass and even to enter the master password should the Lastpass app need that to come up.
by BlueEars
Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Questions on electronic security while traveling
Replies: 13
Views: 785

Questions on electronic security while traveling

It is common to read that hotel wifi connections (in USA or foreign) are not to be considered secure. One way to avoid security issues for some sites is to use an App that is always available on a tablet or smartphone so no password entry is required. This would work for something like Gmail. But so...
by BlueEars
Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available
Replies: 74
Views: 17765

Re: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available

Some years back there was good long term data presented on sort term IG bonds. I think the poster had a good background in DFA type investing. Anyway the basic idea was that ST IG had a good track record. Sorry I am out of town right now or would hunt that up. My current approach is to keep a modest...
by BlueEars
Fri Aug 25, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 181
Views: 35865

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

Right and yield curve inversion can lead by several months which explains why many do not see a good correlation with equity declines. Timing is tough.
by BlueEars
Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 181
Views: 35865

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

I think the word "momentum" is misleading for this strategy. The meat of the system consist in trading out of equities when the 1 year stock market returns are inferior to bills returns. In my mind this is closer to a yield curve inversion (2 years yield higher than 10 years) than assets momentum. ...