Search found 3393 matches

by BlueEars
Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Euro slides as Italy Votes No
Replies: 18
Views: 2964

Re: Euro slides as Italy Votes No

Grok, I agree and am glad you posted this as you know more about bonds than I do. I've not spent any time analyzing VG's take on foreign bonds (almost wrote "bombs").
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 05, 2016 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Euro slides as Italy Votes No
Replies: 18
Views: 2964

Re: Euro slides as Italy Votes No

Just curious. So the sp500 futures are worthless info unless one checks just before the open? In which case they are worthless as an info source to me.
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 05, 2016 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Euro slides as Italy Votes No
Replies: 18
Views: 2964

Re: Euro slides as Italy Votes No

... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-04/euro-slides-as-exit-polls-show-italy-voted-no-in-referendum ... https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures ... Euro at 1.05 S&P futures down 0.5% "The euro fell as initial projections showed a lead for the “no” campaign in Italy’...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 05, 2016 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees and risk-taking
Replies: 11
Views: 1244

Re: Retirees and risk-taking

I believe there's a general sentiment that retirees are risk-averse. Among those of you who are retired, what is the biggest investment risk you've taken since you've retired from work. By that I mean where you really felt uncomfortable making that decision. After the 2008 crash, where I followed b...
by BlueEars
Sat Dec 03, 2016 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3598

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

Doc wrote: The blue line is the 5 yr break even. Does anyone belive that the market was predicting a 2% deflation rate in the last part of the year? I'm not sure what the market was predicting for inflation. It would not surprise me that the market was predicting more negative inflation than actual...
by BlueEars
Mon Nov 28, 2016 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3598

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

Well a favorite tool of mine uses historical perspective. ... VPW. :happy
by BlueEars
Mon Nov 28, 2016 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3598

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

... I think that too many people fail to understand that bonds are not cash or that duration is important. Or, when they do, they sometimes get lulled into believing that bonds move in opposite direction from stocks during crises. Yet, when I look as hard as I can at a (nominal) Treasury bond or TI...
by BlueEars
Mon Nov 28, 2016 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3598

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

Just to put things into perspective: According to PortfolioVisualizer , $10,000 invested in a total-market TIPS index ETF (TIP) in January 2007 dropped to $10,421 from a top of $11,815, a 12% drop , whereas $10,000 invested in a total-market U.S. Stock index ETF (VTI) in January 2007 dropped to $5,...
by BlueEars
Fri Nov 25, 2016 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3598

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

I guess this is why one should try to purchase newly issued TIPS or TIPS with a very low inflation factor. It is one thing to gain in and inflation scenario and then give back in a following deflation scenario. It is quite another (ugly) thing to buy TIPS that are loaded up with a high inflation fac...
by BlueEars
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yahoo finance site going down hill?
Replies: 22
Views: 2814

Re: Yahoo finance site going down hill?

Just want to mention I found one app for an ordered list of quotes. That is the Schwab app which you can use without being a Schwab customer. You can create a watchlist which is saved on your smartphone. Alternately it will display watchlists from your Schwab account if you have one.
by BlueEars
Wed Nov 23, 2016 5:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yahoo finance site going down hill?
Replies: 22
Views: 2814

Re: Yahoo finance site going down hill?

Thanks everyone for the comments so far. Again, here are the items which I have not found a (free) Yahoo replacement for. Shown in order of importance for me: 1) Historical data, especially the monthly fund/etf data. This is a big one for me. 2) An ordered list of quotes i.e. not just alphabetical. ...
by BlueEars
Tue Nov 22, 2016 12:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yahoo finance site going down hill?
Replies: 22
Views: 2814

Re: Yahoo finance site going down hill?

I just said Netscape to check that you guys are reading posts. No, actually it was a weird hiccup. Sorry. Actually using Firefox (up to date too). Going to bed now. What I like about Yahoo is that one can order the quotes (does not force alphabetical ordering) and also put in notes. Maybe this exist...
by BlueEars
Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yahoo finance site going down hill?
Replies: 22
Views: 2814

Yahoo finance site going down hill?

I've been happily using the Yahoo finance site over the years but recently it seems to have gone haywire. When I bring up my portfolio the page seems to freeze my Netscape browser on my PC. The price updates on some funds seem to be stale. When I look at the Yahoo app on my phone, the pricing is sta...
by BlueEars
Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: November Returns: TIPs, Small Value, High Yield Rules!
Replies: 16
Views: 1976

Re: November Returns: TIPs, Small Value, High Yield Rules!

... So for example from 1927-2015 the small cap premium averaged 3.3% (i.e. on average small cap stocks outperformed the S&P 500 by 3.3% points). but this outperformance was higher in the high inflation years of 1941-1951 (small cap premium was 5.2%) and 1973-1982 (small cap premium was 8.7%). ...
by BlueEars
Fri Nov 11, 2016 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for recommendations on aerobic exercise equip.
Replies: 55
Views: 2340

Re: Looking for recommendations on aerobic exercise equip.

Are these the YouTube videos I see on the web under "total immersion videos" ? The most useful resource I found in learning proper freestyle swimming technique was the " Effortless Endurance Self-Coaching Course" from Total Immersion. This is a series of videos and text lessons ...
by BlueEars
Fri Nov 11, 2016 12:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for recommendations on aerobic exercise equip.
Replies: 55
Views: 2340

Re: Looking for recommendations on aerobic exercise equip.

Grateful1 wrote:...
Previously a near non-swimmer, 4 months ago I decided to give this a try. I used the "Total Immersion" videos to help learn / self-teach swimming.
...

Are these the YouTube videos I see on the web under "total immersion videos" ?
by BlueEars
Fri Nov 11, 2016 12:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for recommendations on aerobic exercise equip.
Replies: 55
Views: 2340

Re: Looking for recommendations on aerobic exercise equip.

I am 64 yrs old. I am currently jogging 3.5 miles every other day. However, my knees are giving signs of wear and tear. So I am looking to reduce my jogging and replace it with some indoor aerobic exercise. I have a treadmill and a elliptical at home, but I do not enjoy using them. I also enjoy bik...
by BlueEars
Mon Nov 07, 2016 12:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: iWatch, FitBit or...?
Replies: 15
Views: 1249

Re: iWatch, FitBit or...?

This is a strange market. The name recognition seems to be incredibly strong for Fitbit. The product is less so.
by BlueEars
Sun Nov 06, 2016 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: iWatch, FitBit or...?
Replies: 15
Views: 1249

Re: iWatch, FitBit or...?

I would recommend the Vivofit 2 (by Garmin). I've used the Vivofit 1 for about 2+ years now. It has a good display you can see your number without a phone, it has a 1 year battery life (actually can go months longer), and you can swim with it on. I wear it 24/7. It is pretty cheap on Amazon and you ...
by BlueEars
Tue Nov 01, 2016 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did the Short Term Investment Grade Dividend go down so much for the month of September
Replies: 18
Views: 2571

Re: Why did the Short Term Investment Grade Dividend go down so much for the month of September

Why isolate the dividends? It seems total return is doing just fine.

Here is a 3 month chart of blue VFSUX (investment grade), orange VFISX (sh term treasury), and green VBISX (sh term index):

Image
by BlueEars
Mon Oct 31, 2016 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Long should Updates for Windows 10 take to load??
Replies: 22
Views: 1466

Re: How Long should Updates for Windows 10 take to load??

I just do a hard shutdown when the disc whirring goes on too long. When it comes back up the install process proceeds in a normal fashion.
by BlueEars
Sun Oct 30, 2016 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Core Bond Fund
Replies: 55
Views: 5932

Re: Vanguard Core Bond Fund

Interesting M* article on the core bond fund: http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=775899 The portfolio had 27% of its assets in U.S. Treasuries as of Sept. 30 compared to 40% in the Barclays Aggregate. However, Core Bond also had 7% in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, whil...
by BlueEars
Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE, SCHMAPE? WSJ piece raises questions
Replies: 38
Views: 3342

Re: CAPE, SCHMAPE? WSJ piece raises questions

... In round numbers, call it -4% to +10% real return for likely range of growth and valuation. :idea: Note that to get close to the historical average real return 6.67%, would require either increase in valuation to PE10=36 or above-average earnings growth, or some combination. Boy, it is so refre...
by BlueEars
Tue Oct 18, 2016 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worst Bear Market's 16 lost years: What's your risk tolerance, really really?
Replies: 68
Views: 6731

Re: Worst Bear Market's 16 lost years: What's your risk tolerance, really really?

As others have pointed out, just looking at the returns is not the whole picture. In 1937 there was double digit unemployment in the US. I think it was something like 14% before the stock market declined and apparently jumped to 19% in 1938. And that unemployment was probably for working men as many...
by BlueEars
Tue Oct 18, 2016 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worst Bear Market's 16 lost years: What's your risk tolerance, really really?
Replies: 68
Views: 6731

Re: Worst Bear Market's 16 lost years: What's your risk tolerance, really really?

One can use the VPW tool to look at simple portfolios and how they might have done in bad markets. Here is one run for a $1M portfolio at the beginning of 1973. Assumptions are a 60/40 US based portfolio, no withdrawals (set this in the "Table" tab using a very small number for alternate w...
by BlueEars
Fri Oct 14, 2016 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Myopic loss aversion and the equity risk premium puzzle
Replies: 76
Views: 4801

Re: Myopic loss aversion and the equity risk premium puzzle

... Obviously as you narrow the ranges (20/80 versus 80/20 is huge. 40/60 versus 60/40 is a lot smaller) that you consider the choice matters less and less. Debating if you should be 45/55 or 50/50 just isn't worth the time. I kind of agree. As a retiree one needs to decide the right path and what ...
by BlueEars
Thu Oct 13, 2016 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Myopic loss aversion and the equity risk premium puzzle
Replies: 76
Views: 4801

Re: Myopic loss aversion and the equity risk premium puzzle

... Obviously as you narrow the ranges (20/80 versus 80/20 is huge. 40/60 versus 60/40 is a lot smaller) that you consider the choice matters less and less. Debating if you should be 45/55 or 50/50 just isn't worth the time. I kind of agree. As a retiree one needs to decide the right path and what ...
by BlueEars
Thu Oct 13, 2016 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Myopic loss aversion and the equity risk premium puzzle
Replies: 76
Views: 4801

Re: Myopic loss aversion and the equity risk premium puzzle

I think loss aversion is very rational and not myopic. At $2 million, I retire with everything I need, and almost everything I want. Growing that to $3 or $4 million changes my life very little. Dropping that to $1 million changes my life immensely. Many of us would agree on the need to be conserva...
by BlueEars
Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retirees: What are your passions?
Replies: 56
Views: 6441

Re: Retirees: What are your passions?

Right, the pursuit of happiness can be a full time job. No need to find something to brag about.
by BlueEars
Wed Oct 12, 2016 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why aren't international stocks cheaper?
Replies: 29
Views: 2922

Re: Why aren't international stocks cheaper?

I picked 20 years because that is how far back performance data goes on Vanguard's website for international total market. 20 years takes us back to 1995. The US large cap stocks had a great run in the late 1990's and we know now that international has underperformed in recent years. So it's an old...
by BlueEars
Wed Oct 12, 2016 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why aren't international stocks cheaper?
Replies: 29
Views: 2922

Re: Why aren't international stocks cheaper?

Vanguard's total international market fund has returned a mere 4.3% over the last 20 years. Total US has returned nearly double that, and in a more tax efficient way. Given this, shouldn't international stocks be incredibly cheap if earnings grow over time? Especially given the lower valuations in ...
by BlueEars
Mon Oct 10, 2016 5:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retirees: What are your passions?
Replies: 56
Views: 6441

Re: Retirees: What are your passions?

These are not passions, just my pleasures: 1) Aerobic exercise: I try to get in about 20 miles/week in the hills. Runs from 5 to 8 miles each. Been doing this sort of stuff since high school. Now in retirement I can take a lot of time to just stop and enjoy the views or watch creatures in the state ...
by BlueEars
Sun Oct 09, 2016 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 704
Views: 196151

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

longinvest, The Answer is inside the SPIA question and I totally missed the intent. Perhaps others have missed this point as well? Would a user simply reduce the amount of the initial portfolio, or, is a portfolio final value (lower limit, floor) needed? =============== Suggestion: Copy-n-paste the...
by BlueEars
Sun Oct 09, 2016 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 704
Views: 196151

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

... If you believe that you have a real possibility to live until age 110, you should pick something like age 114 as Last Withdrawal Age. That's why the spreadsheet allows for specifying this parameter. The proposed glide path is not meant to replace this parameter. I have set the Last Withdrawal A...
by BlueEars
Sat Oct 08, 2016 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 704
Views: 196151

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

.... In a private discussion, BahamaMan shared with me some anecdotal evidence. He observed a big decline in his older friends at around age 85. Here are his words: "Many friends of mine over the last 10 years that were very healthy at age 80, contracted an illness a few years later that led t...
by BlueEars
Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Desktop vs. Laptop Computer
Replies: 56
Views: 4431

Re: Desktop vs. Laptop Computer

DC_bogle wrote:
foreverihope wrote:... That said, Google has said that they "won't support" (whatever that means) chromebooks after five years.
...

That would be a deal killer in my book. Does that mean "security" is unsupported? My Nexus 7 still apparently gets security upgrades.
by BlueEars
Mon Oct 03, 2016 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Desktop vs. Laptop Computer
Replies: 56
Views: 4431

Re: Desktop vs. Laptop Computer

We have both. Despite the portability of the laptop, the desktop gets used more often. I think the reason is because it's always there. There is a nice big screen and a mouse. The desk and chair is a optimal place to use a computer. The laptop is always somewhere. The wireless mouse is not always w...
by BlueEars
Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Desktop vs. Laptop Computer
Replies: 56
Views: 4431

Re: Desktop vs. Laptop Computer

Charging is really a bore and a non-issue on a desktop. Right now I have a desktop, nexus 7 tablet, and nexus 6P phone, and even an iPad mini. For a premium laptop nowadays (maybe SSD memory, hi res display, etc), how much degradation should I expect from the battery as it ages? Do you replace batte...
by BlueEars
Sat Sep 10, 2016 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 704
Views: 196151

Re: VPW and TSP

... Perhaps the way I can slightly correct for the extra risk of not having that year's money in cash, is to simply hold a bit fewer stocks than I planned otherwise (say 50% instead of 60%). It's too bad their withdrawal options are so limited, but the federal G fund is so good (and their expense r...
by BlueEars
Wed Sep 07, 2016 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 704
Views: 196151

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Some really good pointers in recent threads, thanks to all. I've been using VPW for the last 2 years or so. Some of the recent comments got me to dig deeper into the underlying formulas. In particular the formulas on the "Table" sheet which has: 1) The default stock/bond historical data us...
by BlueEars
Tue Sep 06, 2016 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 704
Views: 196151

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

so, in short: I was asking about how to calculate the savings one can retire on and subsequenclty "apply" VPW to Your savings is an input to VPW. Then VPW shows how that savings might have faired historically. The rest is left as an excise for the individual . We all have to consider our ...
by BlueEars
Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 704
Views: 196151

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal

the VPW data is only as good as the past bad economies will be reflected in future returns. Should we get something worse then start years like 1929 or 1968, we may have to cope in ways unknown. I am optimistic that VPW is a good tool for planning. Mid course corrections may be required. thank you ...
by BlueEars
Sun Sep 04, 2016 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 704
Views: 196151

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal

... My question here is: does the backtesting and other additional data in the other tabs support that VPW will be successful at not depleting your portfolio before the end of a, for example, 55 year retirement period is up (say for retirement at age 55 with depletion at age 110, for instance)? I g...
by BlueEars
Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value vs Growth - Depends on the Turnover Frequency?
Replies: 34
Views: 2188

Re: Value vs Growth - Depends on the Turnover Frequency?

I focus on only what I can invest in. So I tend to keep my own data updated. Here is the data for value versus growth for Vanguard funds. The very early data is from the MSCI indexes which VG was using between April 2003 and the recent changes to CRSP in 2013 (as I recall). So the 1993 to 2003 data...
by BlueEars
Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value vs Growth - Depends on the Turnover Frequency?
Replies: 34
Views: 2188

Re: Value vs Growth - Depends on the Turnover Frequency?

I focus on only what I can invest in. So I tend to keep my own data updated. Here is the data for value versus growth for Vanguard funds. The very early data is from the MSCI indexes which VG was using between April 2003 and the recent changes to CRSP in 2013 (as I recall). So the 1993 to 2003 data ...
by BlueEars
Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Blocking robot calls.
Replies: 61
Views: 5015

Re: Blocking robot calls.

I'd recommend that you get cell service that works with a wifi connection Good idea. Brings to mind Google's project Fi. Saves money too. I have a Nexus 6P and that will work on Google project Fi. Advantages are it uses T-Mobil, Sprint, US Cellular and wifi. Is reported to switch between wifi and c...
by BlueEars
Thu Sep 01, 2016 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends
Replies: 211
Views: 12302

Re: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends

Jo, I just used the VG admiral fund data. The 12 month returns for SV and SG agree with my numbers when I checked at M*: SV=VSIAX: http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=VSIAX&region=usa&culture=en_US SG=VSGAX: http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-...
by BlueEars
Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends
Replies: 211
Views: 12302

Re: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends

Here are the 12 month and 24 month numbers for Vanguard admiral funds. Still seems to be a decent return for value over growth:

Image

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