Search found 3604 matches

by Aptenodytes
Sun Sep 18, 2016 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My bond portfolio - Comments
Replies: 21
Views: 2201

Re: My bond portfolio - Comments

If I were in your shoes I would be more targeted and more selective. I'd put my risky bond money in high yield corporates. I'd put most of my safe money in CDs, leaving some in short term treasuries to help with liquidity needs. I don't consider your bond funds as good bets.
by Aptenodytes
Sat Sep 17, 2016 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest HSA funds
Replies: 6
Views: 682

Re: How to invest HSA funds

Normally you are better off not treating the HSA or part of it as an emergency fund, because that squanders a valuable tax benefit. But sometimes you have no other choice. Decide what you want your emergency fund to be and keep that in a short term bond fund or even your HSA provider's money market ...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Sep 17, 2016 12:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSABank: How to withdraw money and reflect it in taxes?
Replies: 49
Views: 2459

Re: HSABank: How to withdraw money and reflect it in taxes?

Right about how long to keep tax returns, but the regs you quote confirm my understanding that you don't have to actively prove no deductions, you just have to able to prove in the event of a challenge. Thank you, nps. In the meantime, I found a gotcha. The IRS wants you to prove that you have not c...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Sep 16, 2016 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering a 20% swing in my asset allocation
Replies: 41
Views: 2906

Re: Considering a 20% swing in my asset allocation

If you want to be able to be prepared for a big emergency or be ready to splurge on something expensive when the moment finally strikes, then I think you want to stay at 50% stocks. A 30%-equity portfolio exposes you to high inflation risk without any clear offsetting benefit to make it seem justifi...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Sep 16, 2016 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSABank: How to withdraw money and reflect it in taxes?
Replies: 49
Views: 2459

Re: HSABank: How to withdraw money and reflect it in taxes?

Thank you, nps. In the meantime, I found a gotcha. The IRS wants you to prove that you have not claimed these medical expenses as itemized deductions. If I am to take distribution for the expenses that I have made in 2011, I must keep my Form 1040 including Schedule A from 2011 until now. Victoria ...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Sep 16, 2016 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Warren Buffett the ultimate free rider?
Replies: 23
Views: 3821

Re: Is Warren Buffett the ultimate free rider?

You are assuming the Berkshire shares aren't marked to market but they are.
by Aptenodytes
Fri Sep 16, 2016 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I am going to stop tilting. Sanity check.
Replies: 66
Views: 5963

Re: I am going to stop tilting. Sanity check.

You can be pretty faithful to the small-value tilt without paying so much for international small-value. .65% is too high for me; settle for small-international and the ERs are far lower. You can get the domestic small-value at very low ERs. Your premise that a small-value tilt has underperformed i...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Sep 15, 2016 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I am going to stop tilting. Sanity check.
Replies: 66
Views: 5963

Re: I am going to stop tilting. Sanity check.

You can be pretty faithful to the small-value tilt without paying so much for international small-value. .65% is too high for me; settle for small-international and the ERs are far lower. You can get the domestic small-value at very low ERs. Your premise that a small-value tilt has underperformed in...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to allocate money - am I too cash heavy?
Replies: 13
Views: 1488

Re: How to allocate money - am I too cash heavy?

I don't think it helps to think of things this way. Better to look at the whole picture focusing on your needs, abilities and opportunities. E.g. one opportunity might be to refinance the mortgage to 15 years. Directing your savings abilities in that direction mighty pay off more than what you're co...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD fans, Dan Wiener has news! [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 40
Views: 4965

Re: RBD fans, Dan Wiener has news! [Really Bad Day]

I'm not seeing any substance here. What is the decision rule he tested? Smells like meaningless blather unless I'm just missing it in the nooks of my phone's screen. It isn't even clear what he has in mind implicitly. Some kind of variable equity allocation I suppose, but who really knows. It kind o...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Aug 20, 2016 6:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2017 Chevy Volt - Buy vs Lease
Replies: 22
Views: 1728

Re: 2017 Chevy Volt - Buy vs Lease

leasing an electric car can make sense, but when I was looking for Volts in 2015 I found enormous disparity among lease offers around the country and in my area none of the lease offers were any good. So before you spend too much time crunching numbers and wondering what to do, it may pay off to che...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Aug 11, 2016 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 9
Views: 904

Re: TIPS

Depends on what you mean by "middle-aged." I don't think the case for TIPS becomes compelling until you are about 10 years from retirement. And at that point, I don't think simple rules of thumb are going to work very well in figuring out how much to hold in TIPS. You have to take into acc...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Aug 09, 2016 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anything wrong with having say 50% of my bond allocation in muni bonds?
Replies: 41
Views: 3856

Re: Anything wrong with having say 50% of my bond allocation in muni bonds?

... 3) For CDs to be beating bonds by so much is unusual, but it is the present reality. And if you are investing under $250,000 they make more sense than Treasuries. Above $250,000 I believe there are still ways to get the FDIC insurance. [you may want to keep some treasuries for liquidity needs] ...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Aug 08, 2016 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anything wrong with having say 50% of my bond allocation in muni bonds?
Replies: 41
Views: 3856

Re: Anything wrong with having say 50% of my bond allocation in muni bonds?

P.S: I did the above calculation with. 0.8% tax drag for stocks in a taxable account. 8% growth for stocks, if in a taxable 7.2% due to drag. Assumed 3% return for muni bonds. I calculated for ten years, my time horizon. Gain in tIRA was taxed at 25% marginal tax rate. With this, muni bonds were be...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Aug 06, 2016 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Portfoliovisualizer always accurate?
Replies: 5
Views: 812

Re: Is Portfoliovisualizer always accurate?

I think you might have to restate your question more precisely. What symbol are you entering in portfolio visualizer? What time period are you looking at? What return are you seeing and why do you think it is wrong? I am pretty certain that the CNN site you linked to is not capable of showing you re...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Aug 06, 2016 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to keep target allocation with cash paying so little
Replies: 12
Views: 1110

Re: How to keep target allocation with cash paying so little

I don't think your cash needs should be expressed as a percentage of your portfolio.
by Aptenodytes
Sat Aug 06, 2016 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anything wrong with having say 50% of my bond allocation in muni bonds?
Replies: 41
Views: 3856

Re: Anything wrong with having say 50% of my bond allocation in muni bonds?

Doesn't make sense to me. You keep your AA interact through management of your overall portfolio so what might be going on in a particular bucket doesn't shape the effect of a decline in any one asset. Plus don't forget that there are advantages to having equity losses in a taxable account. You have...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Aug 06, 2016 7:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hourly Rate for Contracting - thoughts?
Replies: 29
Views: 1992

Re: Hourly Rate for Contracting - thoughts?

My target has been 2x. Where I work an employee costs almost exactly double their salary. You have to look at not only benefits but the overhead (office space, accounts payable and receivable, utilities etc). Each gig is a market transaction and I might hold out for more or take less, depending on a...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Jul 26, 2016 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?
Replies: 28
Views: 2580

Re: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?

Here's what I suggest after reading the additional posts. 1) Separate the question of what to do about the future of the world from your AA. 2) For the AA, I think you should put everything in a target date fund, in each account. You are too erratic and prone to over thinking to manage your AA direc...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jul 23, 2016 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?
Replies: 28
Views: 2580

Re: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?

You ask if you are being rational or irrational. Unfortunately the answer is "both," because all humans are both rational and irrational. That said, there are some red flags that your irrationality trends high. The big one for me is the fact that you "have always had a bias against th...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jul 23, 2016 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging versus Lump Sum Investing
Replies: 10
Views: 725

Re: Dollar Cost Averaging versus Lump Sum Investing

Congratulations on making the decision to figure things out and to reach out for assistance. Let me take a crack at breaking you questions down into bite-sized chunks: 1) For a couple ages 61-62 planning to retire at age 65 and delay social security, what should we invest in? The answer depends on l...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jul 23, 2016 7:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Very strange discovery on Google [use tracking/privacy]
Replies: 23
Views: 3658

Re: Very strange discovery on Google

I just stumbled onto a "My Activity Page" on Google that shows all prior activity for them to track. You can then delete that history from their site. That was my plan. When I entered the site-it was full of searches that appear to have been done by a relative in Germany. How is that even...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding value by combining value and Momentum
Replies: 35
Views: 2593

Re: Adding value by combining value and Momentum

I wonder how much the momentum effect is captured simply by being lazy and only rebalancing annually? Or even every 3 years? Look at the graph I pasted and ask yourself if you portfolio could ever go through such swings with annual rebalancing. I would guess you would get very close to zero of the ...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding value by combining value and Momentum
Replies: 35
Views: 2593

Re: Adding value by combining value and Momentum

I don't know why people are picking up on trying to attempt momentum timing between asset classes when that is generally not what is recommended (but in general may also work too). The paper covered in the article linked is about the cross-sectional momentum and value factors within asset classes. ...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large Cap Gain in Cash and AA has to be redone.
Replies: 12
Views: 1032

Re: Large Cap Gain in Cash and AA has to be redone.

You imply the following, but it would help to confirm explicitly: 1) 100% of your IRA and other tax-advantaged savings will be in bonds once you invest the cash. 2) You are in a higher-than-usual tax bracket for 2016 and will drop back down in 2017. We don't know how high the tax bracket is, but we ...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Jul 19, 2016 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding value by combining value and Momentum
Replies: 35
Views: 2593

Re: Adding value by combining value and Momentum

I am convinced that momentum exists as an exploitable factor. Asness's layperson-oriented articles and interviews are quite convincing, and his critics are not convincing. I believe it, but I don't think I could ever act on it , at least the way investment vehicles are currently structured. Perhaps...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jul 18, 2016 6:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Scary thought. Running out of time to save for retirement
Replies: 60
Views: 6519

Re: Scary thought. Running out of time to save for retirement

This feels a bit like humble-bragging. I don't think you are really scared about your situation, I think you are proud of it. And you should be proud -- you were disciplined and wise from an early age. Although investing early is enormously helpful, there is no need to be defeatist if you happen to ...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just got back from Europe...ready to sell my International...
Replies: 82
Views: 9747

Re: Just got back from Europe...ready to sell my International...

When you set your AA you made certain assumptions about how the world works. You are now thinking that those assumptions were wrong. So the question comes down to this: were you correct originally, or are you correct now? The evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of you having been correct originally....
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: OK to stay in cash if you have 40-50x annual expenses?
Replies: 61
Views: 5360

Re: OK to stay in cash if you have 40-50x annual expenses?

I don't think anybody has mentioned SS and pension. If you delay SS to 70 and add the pension, what fraction of expected expenses do you get? Whether the answer is close to 1 or close to 0 makes all the difference. The answers all implicitly assume, I believe, that the SS and pension amount to a neg...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jul 17, 2016 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to spread the purchase to reduce risk?
Replies: 6
Views: 566

Re: How to spread the purchase to reduce risk?

There are financial models and behavioral models. The financial models say that the the best tool for managing the risk you worry about is the choice of an asset allocation . Market timing, of which the strategy of moving money from cash into a portfolio over time is a variant, is a bad tool for man...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jul 17, 2016 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing down payment for car
Replies: 37
Views: 1937

Re: Investing down payment for car

You can get 1% with almost no work by moving to Ally or something comparable. You can get about 1.5% by juggling CDs So you have to decide if you want to hassle with CDs in order to get an extra $200 over the two years. That's a personal choice. You could play it safe and buy a 2-year CD, but then ...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jul 16, 2016 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Graph of 2 or more funds added together
Replies: 3
Views: 259

Re: Graph of 2 or more funds added together

I find myself using the "Simba spreadsheet" for this kind of exercise. It takes more work than the Web tools such as the one Nisiprius points to, but if you know how spreadsheets work it is only a bit more work. And in exchange you get more power and control. If you aren't already fluent i...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jul 16, 2016 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing down payment for car
Replies: 37
Views: 1937

Re: Investing down payment for car

You can get 1% with almost no work by moving to Ally or something comparable. You can get about 1.5% by juggling CDs So you have to decide if you want to hassle with CDs in order to get an extra $200 over the two years. That's a personal choice. You could play it safe and buy a 2-year CD, but then i...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jul 16, 2016 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Yale's U Unconventional Portfolio
Replies: 10
Views: 1793

Re: Yale's U Unconventional Portfolio

But to answer the listed question more directly, a fairly good approximation of Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund (VTMGX) would be about 60% Vanguard European Stock Index (VEUSX) and 40% Vanguard Pacific Stock Index (VPKIX). Note that this leaves out Canada and you could actually get a more acc...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jul 16, 2016 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to save for retirement without 401K
Replies: 10
Views: 990

Re: How to save for retirement without 401K

If you envision potentially paying for children's college tuition out of pocket (as opposed to relying on financial aid) somewhere down the line, you could put money into a 529 account, designating yourself as the beneficiary for the time being (I'm assuming you have no children yet). The contributi...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jul 16, 2016 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Yale's U Unconventional Portfolio
Replies: 10
Views: 1793

Re: Yale's U Unconventional Portfolio

This is a useful exercise to work out on your own, because it represents a type of challenge that comes up across a wide range of scenarios. If I were of a different mindset I would assign you a homework problem. Instead I'll try to show how it is done. Assuming you are aiming for an international a...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jul 16, 2016 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long Term Investing in inherited IRA
Replies: 4
Views: 295

Re: Long Term Investing in inherited IRA

This post is either morbid or confused. You can only pass on an inherited IRA to heirs if you die prematurely, which I hope is not part of your long term plan.
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Germany issues 10-year bond with negative yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2661

Re: Germany issues 10-year bond with negative yield

Good afternoon All, 1st. Please excuse my newbie ignorance. I am finally trying to understand bonds 2nd. If I am a buyer of a German 10-year bund with a negative yield, will I essentially be "paying" the German Government to "hold" my money for 10 years. Thank you Remove the quo...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Germany issues 10-year bond with negative yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2661

Re: Germany issues 10-year bond with negative yield

I look at the graph posted above and cant help but scream: MAGNITUDE NOT DIRECTION. For pretty much all of your purposes the difference between +0.1% and -0.1% is the same as the difference between 10.1% and 9.9%. For an investor, you are exactly right. For a central bank, I think the jury is out -...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which sub-asset class in stocks would I move into bonds as I age?
Replies: 7
Views: 540

Re: Which sub-asset class in stocks would I move into bonds as I age?

I would just keep the percentages the same. Even if you expect REITs to correlate with the value of your house, I don't see that as a reason to alter your REIT percentage. I'm assuming your house is not a liquid asset funding your consumption needs, but rather a place to live. There are strategies t...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Immediate annuities and my retirement plan
Replies: 48
Views: 4292

Re: Immediate annuities and my retirement plan

More details are needed: Your age. Is there a spouse or partner that depends on the portfolio too? If so, their age. The age you plan to start SS If you add up your current portfolio, what is your anticipated withdrawal need as a percentage? If you expect it to change significantly year by year, wh...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we assume that a well diversified portfolio will inevitably increase over the long term?
Replies: 52
Views: 4145

Re: Why do we assume that a well diversified portfolio will inevitably increase over the long term?

WOW. OP here. I stepped away waiting for my post to be approved and came back to all of these great answers. I should clarify that I am a long time Bogleheads.org reader, but that this was my first post because it was the first time I was unable to find an answer to one of my questions that felt sa...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds as safe with these low interest rates?
Replies: 15
Views: 1242

Re: Are bonds as safe with these low interest rates?

First of all, I don't think the OP is talking strictly about credit risk. In fact, it appears to be largely not about credit risk. The ratings aren't assessing term risk and possible losses from inflation, perhaps a changing skewness in the distribution of potential outcomes. If for example you sub...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Immediate annuities and my retirement plan
Replies: 48
Views: 4292

Re: Immediate annuities and my retirement plan

More details are needed: Your age. Is there a spouse or partner that depends on the portfolio too? If so, their age. The age you plan to start SS If you add up your current portfolio, what is your anticipated withdrawal need as a percentage? If you expect it to change significantly year by year, wha...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds as safe with these low interest rates?
Replies: 15
Views: 1242

Re: Are bonds as safe with these low interest rates?

Low interest rates don't affect bond safety directly. If you think low interest rates reflect dangerous macroeconomic conditions that could lead to government defaults, then they affect bond safety indirectly. If you are in this camp you want to stay clear of bonds issued by governments where defaul...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just as hard to lose to the market as to beat it?
Replies: 53
Views: 3802

Re: Just as hard to lose to the market as to beat it?

You have smuggled in a word that makes your question either nonsensical or impossible to answer -- "reliably." You have to explain what this word means with more precision to be able to come up with a response. If you mean the strategy will work without fail over any time period, then you ...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just as hard to lose to the market as to beat it?
Replies: 53
Views: 3802

Re: Just as hard to lose to the market as to beat it?

I don't get that conclusion from that graph. It is actually very easy...at least looking backwards. Buy the largest market cap stock and only swap when a new company becomes the largest: http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/bw2gxXuDTRIguBDDOd75qw--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3NfbGVnbztxPTg1O3c9NjMw/http://l.yimg.com/...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $500,000 in cash in retirement account. Now what?
Replies: 29
Views: 4423

Re: $500,000 in cash in retirement account. Now what?

I don't see any logic behind going to all that trouble to get out of one bad allocation and then sit on a different bad allocation. It is normal to be concerned about risk, but risk is never going to go away, and surely there are some very fine allocations that are much better than all-cash and also...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need help with infant fare issue with airline
Replies: 18
Views: 1502

Re: Need help with infant fare issue with airline

I would not bother seeking any redress. Although airlines normally collect taxes at the time of ticket purchase, it isn't unusual for them to do so at the airport for international flights. They goofed in not catching the turning-two-before-returning problem at the time of ticketing, but then a disi...

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