Search found 3704 matches

by Aptenodytes
Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Member Here, Looking for some suggestions
Replies: 24
Views: 1540

Re: New Member Here, Looking for some suggestions

Welcome to the forum and congratulations on getting the gumption to bare your financial soul. It isn't easy. You've provided a lot of detail, but left out a few important things. 1) At present, how much of your own money are adding to the 401k and IRA? You kind of imply 0 but you don't come right ou...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has Vanguard increased International Stock and International Bond in Balanced Funds and Portfolio Recommendations?
Replies: 33
Views: 3563

Re: Why has Vanguard increased International Stock and International Bond in Balanced Funds and Portfolio Recommendation

In the long term, having returns like Scenario B is worse than Scenario A, but everybody seems to fixate on the kinds of drops you see in Scenario A. That seems an exaggeration. The Sharpe Ratio is designed to incorporate both and is a pretty standard way to characterize both risk and return in a s...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Backtesting
Replies: 2
Views: 152

Re: Portfolio Backtesting

The Tools and Calculators wiki has a section on backtesting. It only has three entries, but one is the Simba backtesting spreadsheet which is quite a treasure. When you refer to accuracy problems with Portfolio Visualizer, are you talking about accuracy of the data that the Visualizer uses to drive ...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Feb 23, 2017 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Rebalance with Rate Hikes Looming
Replies: 44
Views: 8045

Re: How to Rebalance with Rate Hikes Looming

This is not a rebalancing question. All your bond holdings have interest rate risk, not just the ones you buy in order to rebalance. Your brain is tricking you into thinking the new bond purchases matter more than the old, but it is really just the opposite. There are basically two approaches to int...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Feb 23, 2017 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HSA investment advice and tax question
Replies: 4
Views: 655

Re: HSA investment advice and tax question

When you are young, if you are confident you won't need to withdraw from the HSA until retirement, you should be putting your most risky assets there. I presume you have space for bonds in your 401k and tIRA, which give you tax efficiency but lack the tax-free withdrawals of the HSA. If you think th...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 233
Views: 14206

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I mean seriously Aloha - 1929 and 1999 valuations, with huge policy uncertaintly not priced in. And you want to continue to not take "SOME" off the table? It has already been pointed out to you that 1929 PEs are not comparable to 2017 PEs. So I'd drop that red herring from your analysis, ...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Feb 18, 2017 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on what to do with CD coming due
Replies: 10
Views: 855

Re: Advice on what to do with CD coming due

You are clearly saving for something, but we don't know how much you need or when you might spend it. We don't know if you have come up with a desired asset allocation or, if you have one, what it is. We don't know if the CD is in a taxable account or not (we can guess that it is not but it might no...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Feb 18, 2017 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on cash needs in taxable account
Replies: 19
Views: 1194

Re: Question on cash needs in taxable account

Normally the emergency fund is in cash outside of your investment portfolio, so your scenario wouldn't arise. The reason is the anxiety you point to.
by Aptenodytes
Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please help! Father is addicted to Timeshares
Replies: 19
Views: 2466

Re: PLEASE HELP! Father is addicted to TIMESHARES

I was thinking for a second that your dad might be able generate some income from the timeshares through AirBnB (though clearly less than the costs) but then I realized: shouldn't it be the case that AirBnB has killed off whatever small justification there may have once been for timeshares? AirBnB i...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beating the market through behavioral finance.
Replies: 51
Views: 3065

Re: Beating the market through behavioral finance.

I hope you like reading lots of quotes from smart people, because within minutes Taylor Larimore will send you about 50. They will tell you that although it is true that you can count on many people making consistent mistakes regarding market timing, the only way to outperform those mistake-makers i...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 10, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?
Replies: 63
Views: 4628

Re: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?

If someone asks you "what number do I need?" your first question to them should be "what do you want to do with it?" In your case you neglected to say what you will do with your prediction, so there's no way to answer. What decision are you planning to make that depends on having...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 10, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't stock prices go up on payday?
Replies: 43
Views: 3618

Re: Why don't stock prices go up on payday?

My first inclination in these cases is to eyeball the data. The easiest question to ask is "Does trading volume vary significantly by day of month?" It would take a bit more work to do a more precise exploration of "Does trading volume go up significantly on the days most likely to be...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 115
Views: 9923

Re: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

Suppose someone substituted a global cap weight fund (VT) for SCV and International Small....at what percentage of equities would it be a reasonable substitute for the Larry Portfolio? As the old joke goes, "you can't get there from here." There's no percentage of a total market fund that...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap
Replies: 20
Views: 1458

Re: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap

I agree with Ethelred. If the 2 accounts have low correlation it could get hard to rebalance. Moreover, you can't achieve anticorrelation (one goes up when the other goes down) without using esoteric asset categories. The normal components of a boglehead portfolio are all positively correlated with...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap
Replies: 20
Views: 1458

Re: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap

I agree with Ethelred. If the 2 accounts have low correlation it could get hard to rebalance. Moreover, you can't achieve anticorrelation (one goes up when the other goes down) without using esoteric asset categories. The normal components of a boglehead portfolio are all positively correlated with ...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should retirees build a reserve for RMDs?
Replies: 16
Views: 2368

Re: Should retirees build a reserve for RMDs?

Just to be clear, it is spending that creates the concern, not RMDs. RMDs can be deposited in the asset category they came from. Spending can be lower or higher than RMDs.
by Aptenodytes
Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 115
Views: 9923

Re: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

I'm using a Vanguard-funds-for-equities version of the Larry Portfolio and have chosen to mitigate the bond risk on the bond side only. My treasuries are 6 years or less duration. I have a large position in a stable value fund. And I've got a modest set of 10-year TIPS that will be held to maturity....
by Aptenodytes
Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maintaining Asset Allocation when Value Averaging
Replies: 7
Views: 386

Re: Maintaining Asset Allocation when Value Averaging

The idea of what an AA is changes under value averaging. You are having to keep a bunch of cash on the sidelines, for example, which you'd never do otherwise. Is that part of your AA or not? Or you might consider your bonds not to be part of your portfolio, and just target the value of your stocks, ...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 03, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap
Replies: 20
Views: 1458

Re: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap

You have to explain your motivation for maximizing the difference between the two accounts before we can answer you. We can't help you achieve your goal if we don't know what it is.
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 03, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investors getting a free ride
Replies: 53
Views: 5363

Re: Index Investors getting a free ride

This article is merely an attempt to dress up the tired old argument that passive investing will stop working when too many people do it. Been discussed and debunked many times, including on this forum. Wrapping the argument in free-riding terms only makes it sillier. Both active and passive investo...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jan 29, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do you include in your asset allocation calculations?
Replies: 43
Views: 3350

Re: What do you include in your asset allocation calculations?

This doesn't have to be complicated or contentious. 1) when you determine the target AA of the portfolio of investment accounts, you take into account everything that matters with respect to your need and ability to take risk, your liquidity needs, and your non-tangible behavioral psychology needs. ...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: On the Int'l Funds fence
Replies: 18
Views: 1224

Re: On the Int'l Funds fence

Based on your responses to the replies the only research I think you need to do concerns the behavioral mistakes investors are prone to and the strategies that help avoid them. It looks to me like your biggest risk is not making the wrong choice on international stocks, but rather being plagued with...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 27, 2017 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Optum Bank calculating my YTD return incorrectly?
Replies: 11
Views: 701

Re: Is Optum Bank calculating my YTD return incorrectly?

For the numbers to agree the dates would have to be identical and you would have to have not added or subtracted anything into your HSA.

If you meet those conditions then one or both numbers is/are wrong.

Also it doesn't matter, right? I ignore all these things when I look at my accounts.
by Aptenodytes
Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard High-Yield Corp. Adm. VWEAX
Replies: 16
Views: 1407

Re: Vanguard High-Yield Corp. Adm. VWEAX

The only argument I've seen for high-yield bonds that made any sense to me is the one Rick Ferri has made, which amounts to there being a unique risk factor associated with the high-yield bond market. This is a minority view, but Rick's logic makes sense to me and I keep 25% of my "bond" h...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD question
Replies: 20
Views: 2550

Re: RMD question

Am I right in assuming that you have a kind of bucket strategy, with a dedicated portion of your AA devoted to holding the assets from which you take your RMDs? If you are not using a bucket strategy, then you don't need to alter you fund mix just because you are taking RMDs -- you simply make withd...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spending HSA money versus other
Replies: 21
Views: 2087

Re: Spending HSA money versus other

Are you maxing out other tax deferral accounts that have better expense ratios such as IRA or 401(k)? Your strategy does make sense if you are using all of the other options already; if not, you'd probably be better served putting your cash into an IRA at Vanguard than using that cash for medical e...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Building a TIPs Ladder
Replies: 14
Views: 1214

Re: Building a TIPs Ladder

I believe the most common approach to building a TIPS ladder around here is to do so in one fell swoop, as dbr explains and as the spreadsheet Raybo links to describes. When you build the ladder that way, you have no choice but to buy TIPS in the secondary market. If you want to limit yourself to or...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jan 16, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Suggestions for Low Duration Bond Fund
Replies: 20
Views: 1288

Re: Suggestions for Low Duration Bond Fund

If you follow the signals in the yield curves, there are times when the market tells you to put your bond holdings in very short-term bonds for which there are seldom good mutual funds available. In those circumstances you may wish to switch to CDs, if they are available to you in your accounts. I b...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jan 14, 2017 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cardinal Sin - went to cash the day before 2016 election
Replies: 56
Views: 6381

Re: Cardinal Sin - went to cash the day before 2016 election

It isn't clear if you want advice on how to avoid a repeat of your November mistake or if you are asking what your AA should be. Do you know what your AA was before the election? What was it and what did you think of it? It is hard for strangers to tell you what your AA should be.
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dollar-Cost-Average over HOW MANY years?
Replies: 58
Views: 3740

Re: Dollar-Cost-Average over HOW MANY years?

The trick is to decide on a scheme that gets you in the market fast and calm. Your scheme may be what you need. The algorithms and incantations and magic dust that work for one person fall flat for another. Deviations from lump sum are judged in terms of how well they get you invested quickly and ca...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: what local pharmacy?
Replies: 57
Views: 3219

Re: what local pharmacy?

It was my doctor who recommend a local mom and pop pharmacy in my town. A local doctor in general practice should have well founded opinions on the local pharmacies.
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Predicting future Net Worth
Replies: 31
Views: 4131

Re: Predicting future Net Worth

It helps to be as specific as possible in articulating the decisions you will be making that depend on your net worth estimate. Otherwise you won't formulate the indicator properly. You may discover that nothing depends on it and can save yourself some time. There's an interesting book by Doug Hubba...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Replies: 27
Views: 3192

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

I toyed around with a different way to present this information, The main changes are: + It goes back to 1985 + I tried to cover the most-utilized asset categories among Bogleheads (e.g. I added REITs and I dropped international-developed) + As does the Callan table it stacks each asset category in ...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over what time period should stocks NOT lose money
Replies: 50
Views: 4125

Re: Over what time period should stocks NOT lose money

I think the OP's question is a very useful way to frame risk -- it has much more intuitive punch than things like standard deviations and it relates very directly to an aspect of the portfolio that has real decision-relevance. It also lends itself well to visualization. Below is a chart made from th...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Monitoring returns
Replies: 1
Views: 262

Re: Monitoring returns

1) to track returns you only need to monitor contributions, withdrawals and balances. No need to track things like commissions, dividends and fees--their impact shows up in the balance. 2) there are several options for how to track your returns. Search the forum for terms like "personal returns...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much inflation do Bogleheads predict?
Replies: 13
Views: 1268

Re: How much inflation do Bogleheads predict?

You can make sensible decisions about managing inflation risk without making a specific quantitative prediction about the inflation rate. You do the same kind of thing when you decide what types of insurance coverage to get on your car, which health plan to select, which washing machine to buy, etc....
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone explain Vanguard's higher turnover rates vs Index Funds?
Replies: 22
Views: 2020

Re: Can someone explain Vanguard's higher turnover rates vs Index Funds?

Both funds have the same maturity profiles. My guess is that more investors use the Treasury fund as a temporary parking lot for money moving in and out of equities and that people in the government bond fund are more likely to be sitting tight for the longer term. As far as I can fathom there's mor...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Requirements to change passwords frequently?
Replies: 42
Views: 3264

Re: Requirements to change passwords frequently?

My employer requires it. My impression is that the more a place takes cybersecurity seriously across the board, the more likely they are to require frequent password changes. It makes intuitive sense to me. E.g. sometimes hackers get hold of lists of usernames and passwords. The more often you chang...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?
Replies: 67
Views: 4198

Re: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?

This discussion is timely for me as I am using I-ORP to run some retirement scenarios. This tool requires users to peer into the crystal ball and tell it what inflation will be over the 30 or 40 years of your retirement. Other such tools have a similar annoying requirement. If I knew the answer to ...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dilemma: bonds, cash or 100% stocks for now in present climate?
Replies: 55
Views: 5099

Re: Dilemma: bonds, cash or 100% stocks for now in present climate?

Where to put your bond money can be tricky, but if you overthink it you'll make mistakes. There's no way to offer any suggestions without knowing what you have available to you. Different accounts have different restrictions. In your account, can you buy CDs? Can you buy individual bonds? Do you hav...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?
Replies: 67
Views: 4198

Re: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?

I am still trying to understand what personal planning decision is impacted by assuming inflation is 2.9% versus 3.5% (versus whatever). What exactly would one do differently as a result of analysis with different inputs? What's the decision point being addressed? Grogs gave one -- if you have a pe...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1288
Views: 210931

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Up 9.18% in 2016. 2016 returns: +4.67% VTIAX -8.99% VGHCX So if most of your funds were medicocre to down, how do you explain your up 9.18% performance? I gotta get some of that. Well, High-Yield Corporate was up 11.2%, not 4.3, so that would help boost the average. And VFIDX was up 4.0%, not down ...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jan 02, 2017 2:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?
Replies: 67
Views: 4198

Re: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?

I don't try to forecast inflation. I do all planning (what little I do) in real terms. +1 KlangFool I'm with jebmke and KlangFool on this one. If you project spending and returns in nominal terms and then project inflation separately, you just magnify the error and uncertainty. Far easier to do eve...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jan 01, 2017 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?
Replies: 67
Views: 4198

Re: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?

I don't try to forecast inflation. I do all planning (what little I do) in real terms. +1 KlangFool I'm with jebmke and KlangFool on this one. If you project spending and returns in nominal terms and then project inflation separately, you just magnify the error and uncertainty. Far easier to do eve...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Dec 31, 2016 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1288
Views: 210931

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

8.9% AA was 50-50 January-October. Since then 30% equities. Weighted average would be 46.7% equities. Equities have been 50% international all year. Modest small-value tilt Jan-Oct; heavy tilt since then. Like most people I'm answering a different question than the one posed in the title. I'm tellin...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Dec 21, 2016 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4179

Re: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio

What I did was put a new column in the Simba backtesting spreadsheet with historical data on my stable value fund (TIAA-TRAD), and then used the spreadsheet's tool for exploring alternative portfolios. It didn't really change the overall picture very much. But it makes sense to use more accurate dat...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Dec 21, 2016 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help finding the best bond strategy?
Replies: 7
Views: 1055

Re: Help finding the best bond strategy?

I agree with BolderBoy that your low bond allocation means that you have the luxury of paying attention only to volatility and not worrying about return. If you are looking for a long-term strategy, to be used even as your bond holdings increase, then you should be comforted by the fact that long-te...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Employer Requiring Travel to "No Travel" Country
Replies: 48
Views: 6804

Re: Employer Requiring Travel to "No Travel" Country

What is this no travel list you are referring to? I know the state department does travel alerts and warnings but I am unaware of a no travel list: https://travel.state.gov/content/passports/en/alertswarnings.html They tend to be very cautious. I would be willing to visit several of the countries o...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I learned something about my TIAA Traditional options
Replies: 11
Views: 1166

Re: I learned something about my TIAA Traditional options

Yes, it's all TIAA Traditional in my RA (100%). My TIAA holdings are TRAD-only as well. I may not need to do much rebalancing over the next few years (I'm down to 30% equities) but if I do find myself rebalancing more than once a year, I'll probably start holding some CREF-STOCK to make it easier t...

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