Search found 3698 matches

by Aptenodytes
Sat Feb 18, 2017 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on what to do with CD coming due
Replies: 10
Views: 832

Re: Advice on what to do with CD coming due

You are clearly saving for something, but we don't know how much you need or when you might spend it. We don't know if you have come up with a desired asset allocation or, if you have one, what it is. We don't know if the CD is in a taxable account or not (we can guess that it is not but it might no...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Feb 18, 2017 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on cash needs in taxable account
Replies: 19
Views: 1167

Re: Question on cash needs in taxable account

Normally the emergency fund is in cash outside of your investment portfolio, so your scenario wouldn't arise. The reason is the anxiety you point to.
by Aptenodytes
Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please help! Father is addicted to Timeshares
Replies: 19
Views: 2431

Re: PLEASE HELP! Father is addicted to TIMESHARES

I was thinking for a second that your dad might be able generate some income from the timeshares through AirBnB (though clearly less than the costs) but then I realized: shouldn't it be the case that AirBnB has killed off whatever small justification there may have once been for timeshares? AirBnB i...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beating the market through behavioral finance.
Replies: 51
Views: 3015

Re: Beating the market through behavioral finance.

I hope you like reading lots of quotes from smart people, because within minutes Taylor Larimore will send you about 50. They will tell you that although it is true that you can count on many people making consistent mistakes regarding market timing, the only way to outperform those mistake-makers i...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 10, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?
Replies: 63
Views: 4575

Re: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?

If someone asks you "what number do I need?" your first question to them should be "what do you want to do with it?" In your case you neglected to say what you will do with your prediction, so there's no way to answer. What decision are you planning to make that depends on having...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 10, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't stock prices go up on payday?
Replies: 43
Views: 3596

Re: Why don't stock prices go up on payday?

My first inclination in these cases is to eyeball the data. The easiest question to ask is "Does trading volume vary significantly by day of month?" It would take a bit more work to do a more precise exploration of "Does trading volume go up significantly on the days most likely to be...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 115
Views: 9724

Re: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

Suppose someone substituted a global cap weight fund (VT) for SCV and International Small....at what percentage of equities would it be a reasonable substitute for the Larry Portfolio? As the old joke goes, "you can't get there from here." There's no percentage of a total market fund that...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap
Replies: 20
Views: 1443

Re: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap

I agree with Ethelred. If the 2 accounts have low correlation it could get hard to rebalance. Moreover, you can't achieve anticorrelation (one goes up when the other goes down) without using esoteric asset categories. The normal components of a boglehead portfolio are all positively correlated with...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap
Replies: 20
Views: 1443

Re: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap

I agree with Ethelred. If the 2 accounts have low correlation it could get hard to rebalance. Moreover, you can't achieve anticorrelation (one goes up when the other goes down) without using esoteric asset categories. The normal components of a boglehead portfolio are all positively correlated with ...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should retirees build a reserve for RMDs?
Replies: 16
Views: 2357

Re: Should retirees build a reserve for RMDs?

Just to be clear, it is spending that creates the concern, not RMDs. RMDs can be deposited in the asset category they came from. Spending can be lower or higher than RMDs.
by Aptenodytes
Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 115
Views: 9724

Re: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

I'm using a Vanguard-funds-for-equities version of the Larry Portfolio and have chosen to mitigate the bond risk on the bond side only. My treasuries are 6 years or less duration. I have a large position in a stable value fund. And I've got a modest set of 10-year TIPS that will be held to maturity....
by Aptenodytes
Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maintaining Asset Allocation when Value Averaging
Replies: 7
Views: 383

Re: Maintaining Asset Allocation when Value Averaging

The idea of what an AA is changes under value averaging. You are having to keep a bunch of cash on the sidelines, for example, which you'd never do otherwise. Is that part of your AA or not? Or you might consider your bonds not to be part of your portfolio, and just target the value of your stocks, ...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 03, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap
Replies: 20
Views: 1443

Re: IRA Account Strategy - Spouse Overlap

You have to explain your motivation for maximizing the difference between the two accounts before we can answer you. We can't help you achieve your goal if we don't know what it is.
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 03, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investors getting a free ride
Replies: 53
Views: 5344

Re: Index Investors getting a free ride

This article is merely an attempt to dress up the tired old argument that passive investing will stop working when too many people do it. Been discussed and debunked many times, including on this forum. Wrapping the argument in free-riding terms only makes it sillier. Both active and passive investo...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jan 29, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do you include in your asset allocation calculations?
Replies: 43
Views: 3335

Re: What do you include in your asset allocation calculations?

This doesn't have to be complicated or contentious. 1) when you determine the target AA of the portfolio of investment accounts, you take into account everything that matters with respect to your need and ability to take risk, your liquidity needs, and your non-tangible behavioral psychology needs. ...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: On the Int'l Funds fence
Replies: 18
Views: 1195

Re: On the Int'l Funds fence

Based on your responses to the replies the only research I think you need to do concerns the behavioral mistakes investors are prone to and the strategies that help avoid them. It looks to me like your biggest risk is not making the wrong choice on international stocks, but rather being plagued with...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 27, 2017 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Optum Bank calculating my YTD return incorrectly?
Replies: 11
Views: 700

Re: Is Optum Bank calculating my YTD return incorrectly?

For the numbers to agree the dates would have to be identical and you would have to have not added or subtracted anything into your HSA.

If you meet those conditions then one or both numbers is/are wrong.

Also it doesn't matter, right? I ignore all these things when I look at my accounts.
by Aptenodytes
Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard High-Yield Corp. Adm. VWEAX
Replies: 16
Views: 1386

Re: Vanguard High-Yield Corp. Adm. VWEAX

The only argument I've seen for high-yield bonds that made any sense to me is the one Rick Ferri has made, which amounts to there being a unique risk factor associated with the high-yield bond market. This is a minority view, but Rick's logic makes sense to me and I keep 25% of my "bond" h...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD question
Replies: 20
Views: 2542

Re: RMD question

Am I right in assuming that you have a kind of bucket strategy, with a dedicated portion of your AA devoted to holding the assets from which you take your RMDs? If you are not using a bucket strategy, then you don't need to alter you fund mix just because you are taking RMDs -- you simply make withd...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spending HSA money versus other
Replies: 21
Views: 2013

Re: Spending HSA money versus other

Are you maxing out other tax deferral accounts that have better expense ratios such as IRA or 401(k)? Your strategy does make sense if you are using all of the other options already; if not, you'd probably be better served putting your cash into an IRA at Vanguard than using that cash for medical e...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Building a TIPs Ladder
Replies: 14
Views: 1161

Re: Building a TIPs Ladder

I believe the most common approach to building a TIPS ladder around here is to do so in one fell swoop, as dbr explains and as the spreadsheet Raybo links to describes. When you build the ladder that way, you have no choice but to buy TIPS in the secondary market. If you want to limit yourself to or...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jan 16, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Suggestions for Low Duration Bond Fund
Replies: 20
Views: 1266

Re: Suggestions for Low Duration Bond Fund

If you follow the signals in the yield curves, there are times when the market tells you to put your bond holdings in very short-term bonds for which there are seldom good mutual funds available. In those circumstances you may wish to switch to CDs, if they are available to you in your accounts. I b...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jan 14, 2017 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cardinal Sin - went to cash the day before 2016 election
Replies: 56
Views: 6368

Re: Cardinal Sin - went to cash the day before 2016 election

It isn't clear if you want advice on how to avoid a repeat of your November mistake or if you are asking what your AA should be. Do you know what your AA was before the election? What was it and what did you think of it? It is hard for strangers to tell you what your AA should be.
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dollar-Cost-Average over HOW MANY years?
Replies: 58
Views: 3715

Re: Dollar-Cost-Average over HOW MANY years?

The trick is to decide on a scheme that gets you in the market fast and calm. Your scheme may be what you need. The algorithms and incantations and magic dust that work for one person fall flat for another. Deviations from lump sum are judged in terms of how well they get you invested quickly and ca...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: what local pharmacy?
Replies: 57
Views: 3047

Re: what local pharmacy?

It was my doctor who recommend a local mom and pop pharmacy in my town. A local doctor in general practice should have well founded opinions on the local pharmacies.
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Predicting future Net Worth
Replies: 31
Views: 4114

Re: Predicting future Net Worth

It helps to be as specific as possible in articulating the decisions you will be making that depend on your net worth estimate. Otherwise you won't formulate the indicator properly. You may discover that nothing depends on it and can save yourself some time. There's an interesting book by Doug Hubba...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Replies: 27
Views: 3105

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

I toyed around with a different way to present this information, The main changes are: + It goes back to 1985 + I tried to cover the most-utilized asset categories among Bogleheads (e.g. I added REITs and I dropped international-developed) + As does the Callan table it stacks each asset category in ...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over what time period should stocks NOT lose money
Replies: 50
Views: 4100

Re: Over what time period should stocks NOT lose money

I think the OP's question is a very useful way to frame risk -- it has much more intuitive punch than things like standard deviations and it relates very directly to an aspect of the portfolio that has real decision-relevance. It also lends itself well to visualization. Below is a chart made from th...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Monitoring returns
Replies: 1
Views: 252

Re: Monitoring returns

1) to track returns you only need to monitor contributions, withdrawals and balances. No need to track things like commissions, dividends and fees--their impact shows up in the balance. 2) there are several options for how to track your returns. Search the forum for terms like "personal returns...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much inflation do Bogleheads predict?
Replies: 13
Views: 1260

Re: How much inflation do Bogleheads predict?

You can make sensible decisions about managing inflation risk without making a specific quantitative prediction about the inflation rate. You do the same kind of thing when you decide what types of insurance coverage to get on your car, which health plan to select, which washing machine to buy, etc....
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone explain Vanguard's higher turnover rates vs Index Funds?
Replies: 22
Views: 2001

Re: Can someone explain Vanguard's higher turnover rates vs Index Funds?

Both funds have the same maturity profiles. My guess is that more investors use the Treasury fund as a temporary parking lot for money moving in and out of equities and that people in the government bond fund are more likely to be sitting tight for the longer term. As far as I can fathom there's mor...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Requirements to change passwords frequently?
Replies: 42
Views: 3243

Re: Requirements to change passwords frequently?

My employer requires it. My impression is that the more a place takes cybersecurity seriously across the board, the more likely they are to require frequent password changes. It makes intuitive sense to me. E.g. sometimes hackers get hold of lists of usernames and passwords. The more often you chang...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?
Replies: 67
Views: 4186

Re: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?

This discussion is timely for me as I am using I-ORP to run some retirement scenarios. This tool requires users to peer into the crystal ball and tell it what inflation will be over the 30 or 40 years of your retirement. Other such tools have a similar annoying requirement. If I knew the answer to ...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dilemma: bonds, cash or 100% stocks for now in present climate?
Replies: 55
Views: 5079

Re: Dilemma: bonds, cash or 100% stocks for now in present climate?

Where to put your bond money can be tricky, but if you overthink it you'll make mistakes. There's no way to offer any suggestions without knowing what you have available to you. Different accounts have different restrictions. In your account, can you buy CDs? Can you buy individual bonds? Do you hav...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?
Replies: 67
Views: 4186

Re: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?

I am still trying to understand what personal planning decision is impacted by assuming inflation is 2.9% versus 3.5% (versus whatever). What exactly would one do differently as a result of analysis with different inputs? What's the decision point being addressed? Grogs gave one -- if you have a pe...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1288
Views: 210553

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Up 9.18% in 2016. 2016 returns: +4.67% VTIAX -8.99% VGHCX So if most of your funds were medicocre to down, how do you explain your up 9.18% performance? I gotta get some of that. Well, High-Yield Corporate was up 11.2%, not 4.3, so that would help boost the average. And VFIDX was up 4.0%, not down ...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jan 02, 2017 2:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?
Replies: 67
Views: 4186

Re: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?

I don't try to forecast inflation. I do all planning (what little I do) in real terms. +1 KlangFool I'm with jebmke and KlangFool on this one. If you project spending and returns in nominal terms and then project inflation separately, you just magnify the error and uncertainty. Far easier to do eve...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jan 01, 2017 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?
Replies: 67
Views: 4186

Re: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?

I don't try to forecast inflation. I do all planning (what little I do) in real terms. +1 KlangFool I'm with jebmke and KlangFool on this one. If you project spending and returns in nominal terms and then project inflation separately, you just magnify the error and uncertainty. Far easier to do eve...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Dec 31, 2016 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1288
Views: 210553

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

8.9% AA was 50-50 January-October. Since then 30% equities. Weighted average would be 46.7% equities. Equities have been 50% international all year. Modest small-value tilt Jan-Oct; heavy tilt since then. Like most people I'm answering a different question than the one posed in the title. I'm tellin...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Dec 21, 2016 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4148

Re: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio

What I did was put a new column in the Simba backtesting spreadsheet with historical data on my stable value fund (TIAA-TRAD), and then used the spreadsheet's tool for exploring alternative portfolios. It didn't really change the overall picture very much. But it makes sense to use more accurate dat...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Dec 21, 2016 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help finding the best bond strategy?
Replies: 7
Views: 1050

Re: Help finding the best bond strategy?

I agree with BolderBoy that your low bond allocation means that you have the luxury of paying attention only to volatility and not worrying about return. If you are looking for a long-term strategy, to be used even as your bond holdings increase, then you should be comforted by the fact that long-te...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Employer Requiring Travel to "No Travel" Country
Replies: 48
Views: 6799

Re: Employer Requiring Travel to "No Travel" Country

What is this no travel list you are referring to? I know the state department does travel alerts and warnings but I am unaware of a no travel list: https://travel.state.gov/content/passports/en/alertswarnings.html They tend to be very cautious. I would be willing to visit several of the countries o...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I learned something about my TIAA Traditional options
Replies: 11
Views: 1164

Re: I learned something about my TIAA Traditional options

Yes, it's all TIAA Traditional in my RA (100%). My TIAA holdings are TRAD-only as well. I may not need to do much rebalancing over the next few years (I'm down to 30% equities) but if I do find myself rebalancing more than once a year, I'll probably start holding some CREF-STOCK to make it easier t...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I learned something about my TIAA Traditional options
Replies: 11
Views: 1164

Re: I learned something about my TIAA Traditional options

Yes, it's all TIAA Traditional in my RA (100%). For new money that is going to GSRA, do they allow you to put it in RA instead? It is allowed for the setup with my employer. I'm not sure - I'll ask HR on Monday and see what they say. In my case the TIAA person I spoke to told me that I did have the...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another "OMG why did my portfolio fall" question!
Replies: 30
Views: 4178

Re: Another "OMG why did my portfolio fall" question!

Alas. I have committed the cardinal sin. More of a cardinal virtue, for which hundreds of future readers will owe you thanks. Your query made possible an informative discussion leavened with enough humor to make it a bit memorable, and absent any outright harshing (at least I hope it seems that way...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Dec 19, 2016 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over the last 40 years, 71% of the stock market's return came from dividends, not capital appreciation,"
Replies: 91
Views: 8199

Re: Over the last 40 years, 71% of the stock market's return came from dividends, not capital appreciation,"

how is that possible if the dividend comes out of the value of the stock? The dividend comes from earnings (or at least revenue) of the company that the board of directors chooses to distribute to shareholders. this is from bogleheads wiki: For example:You own 500 shares at $11 per share at year-en...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Dec 17, 2016 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I learned something about my TIAA Traditional options
Replies: 11
Views: 1164

I learned something about my TIAA Traditional options

I recently discovered that I had more options regarding my TIAA Traditional Annuity (TRAD) than I had formerly thought, and as a result was able to make improvements to my portfolio. So I am passing along the story in case it might help others in similar circumstances. The important thing for me was...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?
Replies: 14
Views: 1623

Re: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?

Your conclusions don't follow from your analysis. You are leaving out how much you need to withdraw and when you need to withdraw it. The lower your withdrawal needs, and the farther off your withdrawal needs, the less problematic back to back losses are. Or to put it another way, the question is no...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not own every stock sector & rebalance?
Replies: 26
Views: 1986

Re: Why not own every stock sector & rebalance?

Lackey's thought experiment is interesting but ultimately of entertainment value only. It is like the thing I posted a few weeks ago on how stocks whose names are in all caps outperformed. If 1/n sector fund weights reflect a real thing there are cheaper ways to get the real thing, because we know t...

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