Search found 3465 matches

by Aptenodytes
Sun May 22, 2016 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feed back on these 2 potential portfolios (Current and retirement)
Replies: 2
Views: 257

Re: Feed back on these 2 potential portfolios (Current and retirement)

You need to explain what the "future cashflow" account is for. When you say "secondary income" do you mean you are going to spend the earnings as they come in? Or does the "future" term mean the income will be spent only later on, e.g. in retirement? If you mean you are...
by Aptenodytes
Sun May 22, 2016 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique my portfolio?
Replies: 7
Views: 634

Re: Critique my portfolio?

A few thoughts (see end for summary) As has already been pointed out, what you have is a bit unorthodox. Being unorthodox is perfectly fine, you just need to do a lot more homework to make sure you are setting up a good plan and probably need to take extra measures to be sure you are estimating your...
by Aptenodytes
Sat May 21, 2016 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Glide Path: Do you have set allocation percentages planned out by year?
Replies: 23
Views: 929

Re: Glide Path: Do you have set allocation percentages planned out by year?

My investment plan indicates AAs by year, along a glidepath. I look at the glidepath when I tweak allocations according to monthly contributions, so there's also a defacto monthly glidepath. I have adjusted my glidepath once or twice, so it isn't like it is set in stone. But I prefer to have a writt...
by Aptenodytes
Thu May 19, 2016 1:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those of you in the Accumulation Phase - How often do you check?
Replies: 62
Views: 4724

Re: For those of you in the Accumulation Phase - How often do you check?

How often you check doesn't matter. What matters is the degree to which you make bad decisions. For some people, frequent checking increases the risk of bad decisions; for others it does not. I could imagine that for some people not checking frequently could increase the risk of a bad decision. You ...
by Aptenodytes
Mon May 02, 2016 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Altering the glide path
Replies: 11
Views: 1143

Re: Altering the glide path

It has always seemed unsatisfying to me that there is no clear answer to your question, or even clear guidance on how to think it through. The fund companies have arrived at a common approach but they don't explain their reasoning as far at I've seen. The key things seem to be need and ability to ta...
by Aptenodytes
Sun May 01, 2016 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 826
Views: 130976

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth VSMGX has a 60/40 allocation and is up YTD 2.6%, so I suspect that any YTD number above 5% may be calculated incorrectly. For example, many Quicken users get Quicken to annualize the return. So a 2.6% YTD return would be about 2.6% * 12 / 5 = 6.24% because we a...
by Aptenodytes
Sun May 01, 2016 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inherited IRA + Long Time Horizon
Replies: 16
Views: 1184

Re: Inherited IRA + Long Time Horizon

1) You don't want to manage any single account in isolation from the rest of your holdings. 2) Your long time horizon has implications for your overall portfolio, but not necessarily for your inherited IRA 3) Your inherited IRA has RMDs, but your Roth IRA does not. 4) All your bond holdings should b...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Apr 28, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: McKinsey report on diminishing returns
Replies: 91
Views: 6797

Re: McKinsey report on diminishing returns

T 2) What will institutions, notably pension funds, do? Apparently they have all been baking in unrealistic growth assumptions for a long time. Will they actually scale them back, or will they stick with assumptions that are becoming even more unrealistic, and face the consequences later? That's a ...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Apr 19, 2016 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: how much to tilt when slicing and dicing 7%?
Replies: 44
Views: 2724

Re: how much to tilt when slicing and dicing 7%?

Anywhere between 5% and 100% could be sensible, depending on what you think future returns and volatility are likely to be and how you grok such things.
by Aptenodytes
Mon Apr 18, 2016 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much does tax advantaged account allocation save you?
Replies: 14
Views: 2187

Re: How much does tax advantaged account allocation save you?

Are you trying to determine the best allocation for a taxable account? Check out the Wiki . Do you already know that the taxable account should be all stocks, but you are wondering about how big a deal it would be to deviate from that for the sake of convenience? If so, the details matter, such as y...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Apr 16, 2016 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everyone Worries Too Much About 'Black Swans'
Replies: 39
Views: 4183

Re: Everyone Worries Too Much About 'Black Swans'

That last paragraph seems like complete gibberish to me. Understanding of black swans is not meant to help you beat the market in any randomly sampled time period. So the fact that buy-and-hold investors have done well recently is not relevant. And people who think stocks are consistently overvalued...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Apr 10, 2016 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me
Replies: 42
Views: 3214

Re: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me

I can have a perfectly solid plan where I control my risk (of running out of money) and not cede control to Mr. Market, without traditional rebalancing. Basically, I can have a plan like this: * I want to have 500,000 USD in bonds by the time I retire, at 50. * I'm 30 today and have 100,000 USD in ...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Apr 08, 2016 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I did the math and an HSA for retirement wouldn't save me money — am I doing this wrong?
Replies: 12
Views: 1257

Re: I did the math and an HSA for retirement wouldn't save me money — am I doing this wrong?

So long as your cumulative quailfied medical expenses for all years from HSA inception through HSA distribution offest your HSA distribution, the HSA distributions are tax free. Are you saying you can keep a running tally of qualified medical expenses incurred before age 65 without making HSA withd...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Apr 08, 2016 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I did the math and an HSA for retirement wouldn't save me money — am I doing this wrong?
Replies: 12
Views: 1257

Re: I did the math and an HSA for retirement wouldn't save me money — am I doing this wrong?

For some people HSA money is desired because it is excluded from college financial aid calculations. Another benefit is that you can manage an HSA optimally for fine tuning your withdrawals in retirement to minimize taxes. And if you do that you may want an AA within the HSA that is less volatile th...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Apr 04, 2016 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which Funds Would You Hold in a Traditional IRA vs. a Roth?
Replies: 8
Views: 775

Re: Which Funds Would You Hold in a Traditional IRA vs. a Roth?

I think it depends on your age and your plans for using the Roth as a driver of tax-minimization in retirement. If you are very far from retirement I think you want the Roth to be hold the highest-risk assets so that you can build up the greatest accumulation of assets that will not be taxed upon re...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Mar 31, 2016 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please explain "pocket-change prepayments" on a mortgage
Replies: 47
Views: 4323

Re: Please explain "pocket-change prepayments" on a mortgage

If that's money you would have otherwise invested in your retirement portfolio, you may become poorer over time. If that's money you would have used to buy something that made you happy, you may become sadder over time. If that's money you would have used to build up an emergency fund instead, you m...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Mar 29, 2016 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I hate monthly payments...
Replies: 25
Views: 4025

Re: I hate monthly payments...

If you have an irrational dislike of something that is good, then the trick is to find a way to keep benefiting from the good thing while minimizing the dislike. In your case, putting the bill on autopayment might help, so you never see a bill and never write a check. Or maybe a spouse with differen...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Mar 29, 2016 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still confused about buying bonds....
Replies: 11
Views: 864

Re: Still confused about buying bonds....

You are reading the right books to understand these things. If the logic there doesn't convince you that the risk is tolerable, then it might help to look at the historical patterns. Here's the trend in Fidelity's intermediate term bond fund since 1975. I don't see any 15-year period that screams &q...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Mar 29, 2016 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SEP at Fidelity?
Replies: 6
Views: 408

Re: SEP at Fidelity?

I have my SEP at Fidelity even though 95% of my portfolio is at Vanguard and TIAA. If for some reason you don't like the Fidelity mutual funds you can invest commission-free in IShares ETFs.
by Aptenodytes
Fri Mar 25, 2016 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2 Buckets or 3 Buckets in Retirement??
Replies: 65
Views: 6345

Re: 2 Buckets or 3 Buckets in Retirement??

I think of these bucket strategies as withdrawal strategies. Some people have so much money relative to their expenses that they don't need to worry about withdrawal strategies. Others need to worry. For them, whether they like the bucket metaphor or not, they need to come up with some equivalent of...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Mar 10, 2016 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keeping a Big House as an Inflation Hedge
Replies: 67
Views: 5206

Re: Keeping a Big House as an Inflation Hedge

It is not a diversification play or an inflation play. Buying more house than you need is either pure consumption or pure speculation
by Aptenodytes
Wed Mar 09, 2016 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much of 10-, 15-, 20-year Stock Returns is Explained by Fundamentals (sales, cash flow, book value, dividend)?
Replies: 18
Views: 1488

Re: How Much of Long-Term Stock Returns is Explained by Fundamentals?

1) What makes something count as "fundamental" is that it drives the long-term returns. So the answer is 100%, but also it is tautological. 2) Whether your returns come from fundamentals or something else doesn't matter. 3) 10 years is definitely not long-term. Even 30 years is not 100% lo...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Mar 06, 2016 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Accessing AMEX Credit Card Account
Replies: 6
Views: 522

Re: Accessing AMEX Credit Card Account

In the other browsers I suggest you start fresh, e.g. going to AmericanExpress.com and selecting an option to log in and then enter your user name and password.
by Aptenodytes
Sat Mar 05, 2016 12:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much fed tax do you withhold?
Replies: 22
Views: 1882

Re: How much fed tax do you withhold?

It varies a lot because I target 110% of last year's tax, and last year's tax is only weakly correlated with this year's tax.
by Aptenodytes
Fri Mar 04, 2016 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealthfront uses 5-14% emerging market bonds -- thoughts?
Replies: 16
Views: 1367

Re: Wealthfront uses 5-14% emerging market bonds -- thoughts?

Doesn't make sense to me. These are basically junk bonds, which in my understanding only pay off based on a form of ratings arbitrage (which you can get in a managed domestic high-yield fund). Moreover, the currency risk inherent in any international bond fund seems like it is going to be far bigger...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Mar 03, 2016 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calculating Home Equity
Replies: 23
Views: 1456

Re: Calculating Home Equity

I care more about the change than the level. And I think that the change in Zillow's estimate is much more accurate than its estimate of the level. So I'm happy using Zillow's estimate without an accuracy adjustment. This is for the purpose of tracking net worth every January 1. If I were planning t...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Mar 03, 2016 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cant do an exchange if not within the same fund family on Vanguard?
Replies: 9
Views: 1022

Re: Cant do an exchange if not within the same fund family on Vanguard?

If your holdings permit, you can make it effectively simultaneous by: 1) treat the money in limbo as if it were short-term bonds or your nearest equivalent, with respect to risk. 2) the day you execute the order to sell AKREX, transfer money from your short-term bond account into VTIAX. Follow kaneo...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Feb 29, 2016 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads' Rule of Thumb - Stocks vs Bonds
Replies: 74
Views: 6766

Re: Bogleheads' Rule of Thumb - Stocks vs Bonds

The first rule for a rule of thumb out to be "do no harm." "Charley's" rule of thumb seems quite dangerous to me; I would never include it on any list of rules of thumb. Age-in-bonds is not as bad as Charley's rule but it is a pretty bad candidate. Look at how little of the space...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Feb 29, 2016 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could lending club be a Ponzi scheme, evaluating Risks other than typical loan defaults with p2p.
Replies: 24
Views: 2658

Re: Could lending club be a Ponzi scheme, evaluating Risks other than typical loan defaults with p2p.

Lending Club is set up just about exactly the opposite of how one would set up something to front for a Ponzi scheme. Read up on how Ponzi schemes work. You don't need to worry about this risk. There could be fraud though, no? Create fake loans on the system. "Lend" to them. Pay those ret...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Feb 28, 2016 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using HSA for Fertility Treatments - Good Idea or Bad?
Replies: 12
Views: 1298

Re: Using HSA for Fertility Treatments - Good Idea or Bad?

Here's how I would frame your question. I don't think IVF has anything to do with it. "I understand how high-deductible health plans (HDHPs) and HSAs work, and understand the benefits of using HSAs as long-term investment vehicles. But so far I have made the judgment that they are not a good fi...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Feb 28, 2016 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could lending club be a Ponzi scheme, evaluating Risks other than typical loan defaults with p2p.
Replies: 24
Views: 2658

Re: Could lending club be a Ponzi scheme, evaluating Risks other than typical loan defaults with p2p.

Lending Club is set up just about exactly the opposite of how one would set up something to front for a Ponzi scheme. Read up on how Ponzi schemes work. You don't need to worry about this risk.
by Aptenodytes
Sat Feb 27, 2016 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HSA as part of asset allocation
Replies: 5
Views: 774

Re: HSA as part of asset allocation

Between those two I would probably go with the small-cap fund. In general for an HSA that is treated as part of your retirement portfolio you want to find the sweet spot of high expected return and low cost. You don't worry about volatility in the HSA, but rather use assets outside the HSA to manage...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Feb 23, 2016 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stochastic dominance properties of TIAA Traditional
Replies: 16
Views: 1191

Re: Stochastic dominance properties of TIAA Traditional

I don't get what is so remarkable or incredible here. I think the main message of the piece is what I consider to be the most common view of TRAD on this forum: The use of the TIAA RA as an investment option increased the efficient investment frontier in mean-variance space; for example, meaning the...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NYTimes special tax section: A livesoft review
Replies: 37
Views: 2860

Re: NYTimes special tax section: A livesoft review

My impression is that IRS publications have been getting better over the years -- more clearly written, more complete -- while the software has gotten worse -- more confusing instructions, less complete. So often I find myself following this sequence: 1) Get stuck with the software 2) Look up what t...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Feb 21, 2016 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is there a risk of having too much equity in home?
Replies: 25
Views: 3818

Re: Is there a risk of having too much equity in home?

This risk in this situation is too little liquidity, not too much equity. Equity can go high under different scenarios, not all of which entail lower liquidity. And the remedy doesn't have to be lowering equity -- e.g. in the case you are laying out another remedy might have been taking a career pat...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 69
Views: 13331

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

This is cool. Some people get value of out of raw numbers. Almost everyone gets added value from good visualizations. These are good. A few questions and suggestions: 1) The hurricane charts say that the withdrawal/contribution amounts are "automatically adjusted for inflation" which makes...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Feb 18, 2016 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy According to AA but Never Rebalance
Replies: 40
Views: 2250

Re: Buy According to AA but Never Rebalance

I think I may have phrased my question awkwardly - what I am wondering about is essentially not having an overall AA, but rather an amount you are willing to put into the stock market vs bonds. So there is no target AA to maintain, just a split of where to commit new money. I don't actually do this...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Feb 18, 2016 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy According to AA but Never Rebalance
Replies: 40
Views: 2250

Re: Buy According to AA but Never Rebalance

This works. It is discussed at length in the article which was the subject of this very recent thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=182926 I recall that thread and article but not the OP's hypothetical strategy being raised there. The article considered 1) Pay someone to rebalan...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Feb 18, 2016 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy According to AA but Never Rebalance
Replies: 40
Views: 2250

Re: Buy According to AA but Never Rebalance

I've been toying with variations of this idea. My thought was that if any given asset class outperforms certain other asset classes over time, but you don't know which ones, why not let them run? This isn't exactly the OP's scenario. In the OP's scenario everything runs all the time -- winners and ...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Feb 18, 2016 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy According to AA but Never Rebalance
Replies: 40
Views: 2250

Re: Buy According to AA but Never Rebalance

You need to say more about your motivations. The only thing I can think of that makes any sense is an extreme aversion to spending time maintaining the portfolio combined with a hatred of target-date funds and other funds that automatically rebalance. With this hypothetical plan you could conceivabl...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Feb 17, 2016 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bonds in tax deferred - what happens after retirement
Replies: 8
Views: 1037

Re: Bonds in tax deferred - what happens after retirement

1) If you are going to have an AA of 50-50 by age 50 you will need a rebalancing strategy before you retire. I think the advice on the forum is pretty consistent that you need to take the mechanics of rebalancing into account when you decide on asset location. 2) The odds are that whatever solution ...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Excess SEP-IRA contribution (self-employed)
Replies: 6
Views: 489

Re: Excess SEP-IRA contribution (self-employed)

I thought I would explain how this was resolved as a reference for others who may find themselves in the same boat. As suggested by Alan S., Fidelity was able to return the excess contribution to me. The procedure is to fill out the return-of-excess-contribution form that says it is only meant for t...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Feb 14, 2016 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swap TIAA bond fund for TIAA Traditional (non-liquid, RA version)
Replies: 19
Views: 1525

Re: Swap TIAA bond fund for TIAA Traditional (non-liquid, RA version)

Lots of folks like liquidity even if it is not going to be used. Here is a thread on similar question as poll that you might find useful: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=132565 In the poll, folks voted almost 3:1 for a bond fund over the TIAA traditional. But that vote rati...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Feb 14, 2016 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best Way To Handle Transition to Retirement?
Replies: 3
Views: 902

Re: Best Way To Handle Transition to Retirement?

In the short term, the only thing that is relevant about retiring with respect to where you keep your accounts is that if you are currently forced to accept a custodian that you don't like because your employer requires it, you may not have that requirement any more. Do you hate the custodian associ...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Feb 14, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-balancing Portfolio Between Tax-Advantaged and Taxable Accounts?
Replies: 5
Views: 589

Re: Re-balancing Portfolio Between Tax-Advantaged and Taxable Accounts?

What other accounts do you have? If taxable and Roth are all you have, certain suggestions come up, but if you have something like a 401-k or Traditional IRA then other suggestions come up.
by Aptenodytes
Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SPIA/social security scenarios
Replies: 13
Views: 1036

Re: SPIA/social security scenarios

With regard to your solution, I guess I have to agree. Sigh. That was my plan all along - take spousal and wait until 70 for my own. I never even had thought of SPIAs until I read Oblivious Investor's book and some other Quinn? I just got scared with the stock market fluctuations and started thinki...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SPIA/social security scenarios
Replies: 13
Views: 1036

Re: SPIA/social security scenarios

If I were you I would first reduce the complexity a bit by taking some scenarios off the table entirely, at least for the time being. 1) Rule out taking SS before 70 2) Rule out buying any SPIAs before age 70 You can estimate what size portfolio you need to support your spending needs at age 70, whe...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Feb 12, 2016 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing bands, what is your CURRENT out-of-balance drift?
Replies: 47
Views: 2917

Re: Rebalancing bands, what is your CURRENT out-of-balance drift?

On the stock/bond split I'm right at my target (within a tenth of a percentage point).

Some of my slices are off by a max of 3.3% of the slice, which is a tiny % of the portfolio.
by Aptenodytes
Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need $4000, for taxes
Replies: 22
Views: 2894

Re: Need $4000, for tax's

Another options is just to stop making contributions to retirement accounts for the next few months and use that money pay the tax bill instead. If you don't quite have enough by April 15th then put the balance on a credit card and pay it off by May 15th. With four months to come up with the money, ...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Idea's for Inherited IRA
Replies: 11
Views: 636

Re: Idea's for Inherited IRA

Thanks for your condolences, I'd love to see her ira grow and last me as long as possable, hopefully helping with my retirement and hopefully will be passsed to my daughter some day, Individual stocks arnt my thing as much as I wanted to see where her stock picks would end up, the new boglehead in ...

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