Search found 3585 matches

by Aptenodytes
Sat Jul 23, 2016 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?
Replies: 8
Views: 762

Re: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?

You ask if you are being rational or irrational. Unfortunately the answer is "both," because all humans are both rational and irrational. That said, there are some red flags that your irrationality trends high. The big one for me is the fact that you "have always had a bias against th...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jul 23, 2016 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging versus Lump Sum Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 266

Re: Dollar Cost Averaging versus Lump Sum Investing

Congratulations on making the decision to figure things out and to reach out for assistance. Let me take a crack at breaking you questions down into bite-sized chunks: 1) For a couple ages 61-62 planning to retire at age 65 and delay social security, what should we invest in? The answer depends on l...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jul 23, 2016 7:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Very strange discovery on Google [use tracking/privacy]
Replies: 22
Views: 2951

Re: Very strange discovery on Google

I just stumbled onto a "My Activity Page" on Google that shows all prior activity for them to track. You can then delete that history from their site. That was my plan. When I entered the site-it was full of searches that appear to have been done by a relative in Germany. How is that even...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding value by combining value and Momentum
Replies: 35
Views: 2362

Re: Adding value by combining value and Momentum

I wonder how much the momentum effect is captured simply by being lazy and only rebalancing annually? Or even every 3 years? Look at the graph I pasted and ask yourself if you portfolio could ever go through such swings with annual rebalancing. I would guess you would get very close to zero of the ...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding value by combining value and Momentum
Replies: 35
Views: 2362

Re: Adding value by combining value and Momentum

I don't know why people are picking up on trying to attempt momentum timing between asset classes when that is generally not what is recommended (but in general may also work too). The paper covered in the article linked is about the cross-sectional momentum and value factors within asset classes. ...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large Cap Gain in Cash and AA has to be redone.
Replies: 12
Views: 929

Re: Large Cap Gain in Cash and AA has to be redone.

You imply the following, but it would help to confirm explicitly: 1) 100% of your IRA and other tax-advantaged savings will be in bonds once you invest the cash. 2) You are in a higher-than-usual tax bracket for 2016 and will drop back down in 2017. We don't know how high the tax bracket is, but we ...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Jul 19, 2016 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding value by combining value and Momentum
Replies: 35
Views: 2362

Re: Adding value by combining value and Momentum

I am convinced that momentum exists as an exploitable factor. Asness's layperson-oriented articles and interviews are quite convincing, and his critics are not convincing. I believe it, but I don't think I could ever act on it , at least the way investment vehicles are currently structured. Perhaps...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jul 18, 2016 6:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Scary thought. Running out of time to save for retirement
Replies: 60
Views: 6177

Re: Scary thought. Running out of time to save for retirement

This feels a bit like humble-bragging. I don't think you are really scared about your situation, I think you are proud of it. And you should be proud -- you were disciplined and wise from an early age. Although investing early is enormously helpful, there is no need to be defeatist if you happen to ...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just got back from Europe...ready to sell my International...
Replies: 82
Views: 9230

Re: Just got back from Europe...ready to sell my International...

When you set your AA you made certain assumptions about how the world works. You are now thinking that those assumptions were wrong. So the question comes down to this: were you correct originally, or are you correct now? The evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of you having been correct originally....
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: OK to stay in cash if you have 40-50x annual expenses?
Replies: 61
Views: 4986

Re: OK to stay in cash if you have 40-50x annual expenses?

I don't think anybody has mentioned SS and pension. If you delay SS to 70 and add the pension, what fraction of expected expenses do you get? Whether the answer is close to 1 or close to 0 makes all the difference. The answers all implicitly assume, I believe, that the SS and pension amount to a neg...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jul 17, 2016 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to spread the purchase to reduce risk?
Replies: 6
Views: 514

Re: How to spread the purchase to reduce risk?

There are financial models and behavioral models. The financial models say that the the best tool for managing the risk you worry about is the choice of an asset allocation . Market timing, of which the strategy of moving money from cash into a portfolio over time is a variant, is a bad tool for man...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jul 17, 2016 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing down payment for car
Replies: 37
Views: 1826

Re: Investing down payment for car

You can get 1% with almost no work by moving to Ally or something comparable. You can get about 1.5% by juggling CDs So you have to decide if you want to hassle with CDs in order to get an extra $200 over the two years. That's a personal choice. You could play it safe and buy a 2-year CD, but then ...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jul 16, 2016 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Graph of 2 or more funds added together
Replies: 3
Views: 222

Re: Graph of 2 or more funds added together

I find myself using the "Simba spreadsheet" for this kind of exercise. It takes more work than the Web tools such as the one Nisiprius points to, but if you know how spreadsheets work it is only a bit more work. And in exchange you get more power and control. If you aren't already fluent i...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jul 16, 2016 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing down payment for car
Replies: 37
Views: 1826

Re: Investing down payment for car

You can get 1% with almost no work by moving to Ally or something comparable. You can get about 1.5% by juggling CDs So you have to decide if you want to hassle with CDs in order to get an extra $200 over the two years. That's a personal choice. You could play it safe and buy a 2-year CD, but then i...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jul 16, 2016 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Yale's U Unconventional Portfolio
Replies: 7
Views: 910

Re: Yale's U Unconventional Portfolio

But to answer the listed question more directly, a fairly good approximation of Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund (VTMGX) would be about 60% Vanguard European Stock Index (VEUSX) and 40% Vanguard Pacific Stock Index (VPKIX). Note that this leaves out Canada and you could actually get a more acc...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jul 16, 2016 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to save for retirement without 401K
Replies: 10
Views: 913

Re: How to save for retirement without 401K

If you envision potentially paying for children's college tuition out of pocket (as opposed to relying on financial aid) somewhere down the line, you could put money into a 529 account, designating yourself as the beneficiary for the time being (I'm assuming you have no children yet). The contributi...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jul 16, 2016 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Yale's U Unconventional Portfolio
Replies: 7
Views: 910

Re: Yale's U Unconventional Portfolio

This is a useful exercise to work out on your own, because it represents a type of challenge that comes up across a wide range of scenarios. If I were of a different mindset I would assign you a homework problem. Instead I'll try to show how it is done. Assuming you are aiming for an international a...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Jul 16, 2016 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long Term Investing in inherited IRA
Replies: 4
Views: 249

Re: Long Term Investing in inherited IRA

This post is either morbid or confused. You can only pass on an inherited IRA to heirs if you die prematurely, which I hope is not part of your long term plan.
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Germany issues 10-year bond with negative yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2557

Re: Germany issues 10-year bond with negative yield

Good afternoon All, 1st. Please excuse my newbie ignorance. I am finally trying to understand bonds 2nd. If I am a buyer of a German 10-year bund with a negative yield, will I essentially be "paying" the German Government to "hold" my money for 10 years. Thank you Remove the quo...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Germany issues 10-year bond with negative yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2557

Re: Germany issues 10-year bond with negative yield

I look at the graph posted above and cant help but scream: MAGNITUDE NOT DIRECTION. For pretty much all of your purposes the difference between +0.1% and -0.1% is the same as the difference between 10.1% and 9.9%. For an investor, you are exactly right. For a central bank, I think the jury is out -...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which sub-asset class in stocks would I move into bonds as I age?
Replies: 7
Views: 495

Re: Which sub-asset class in stocks would I move into bonds as I age?

I would just keep the percentages the same. Even if you expect REITs to correlate with the value of your house, I don't see that as a reason to alter your REIT percentage. I'm assuming your house is not a liquid asset funding your consumption needs, but rather a place to live. There are strategies t...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Immediate annuities and my retirement plan
Replies: 48
Views: 3946

Re: Immediate annuities and my retirement plan

More details are needed: Your age. Is there a spouse or partner that depends on the portfolio too? If so, their age. The age you plan to start SS If you add up your current portfolio, what is your anticipated withdrawal need as a percentage? If you expect it to change significantly year by year, wh...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we assume that a well diversified portfolio will inevitably increase over the long term?
Replies: 52
Views: 3896

Re: Why do we assume that a well diversified portfolio will inevitably increase over the long term?

WOW. OP here. I stepped away waiting for my post to be approved and came back to all of these great answers. I should clarify that I am a long time Bogleheads.org reader, but that this was my first post because it was the first time I was unable to find an answer to one of my questions that felt sa...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds as safe with these low interest rates?
Replies: 15
Views: 1182

Re: Are bonds as safe with these low interest rates?

First of all, I don't think the OP is talking strictly about credit risk. In fact, it appears to be largely not about credit risk. The ratings aren't assessing term risk and possible losses from inflation, perhaps a changing skewness in the distribution of potential outcomes. If for example you sub...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Immediate annuities and my retirement plan
Replies: 48
Views: 3946

Re: Immediate annuities and my retirement plan

More details are needed: Your age. Is there a spouse or partner that depends on the portfolio too? If so, their age. The age you plan to start SS If you add up your current portfolio, what is your anticipated withdrawal need as a percentage? If you expect it to change significantly year by year, wha...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds as safe with these low interest rates?
Replies: 15
Views: 1182

Re: Are bonds as safe with these low interest rates?

Low interest rates don't affect bond safety directly. If you think low interest rates reflect dangerous macroeconomic conditions that could lead to government defaults, then they affect bond safety indirectly. If you are in this camp you want to stay clear of bonds issued by governments where defaul...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just as hard to lose to the market as to beat it?
Replies: 53
Views: 3596

Re: Just as hard to lose to the market as to beat it?

You have smuggled in a word that makes your question either nonsensical or impossible to answer -- "reliably." You have to explain what this word means with more precision to be able to come up with a response. If you mean the strategy will work without fail over any time period, then you ...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just as hard to lose to the market as to beat it?
Replies: 53
Views: 3596

Re: Just as hard to lose to the market as to beat it?

I don't get that conclusion from that graph. It is actually very easy...at least looking backwards. Buy the largest market cap stock and only swap when a new company becomes the largest: http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/bw2gxXuDTRIguBDDOd75qw--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3NfbGVnbztxPTg1O3c9NjMw/http://l.yimg.com/...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $500,000 in cash in retirement account. Now what?
Replies: 29
Views: 4257

Re: $500,000 in cash in retirement account. Now what?

I don't see any logic behind going to all that trouble to get out of one bad allocation and then sit on a different bad allocation. It is normal to be concerned about risk, but risk is never going to go away, and surely there are some very fine allocations that are much better than all-cash and also...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jul 15, 2016 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need help with infant fare issue with airline
Replies: 18
Views: 1433

Re: Need help with infant fare issue with airline

I would not bother seeking any redress. Although airlines normally collect taxes at the time of ticket purchase, it isn't unusual for them to do so at the airport for international flights. They goofed in not catching the turning-two-before-returning problem at the time of ticketing, but then a disi...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Jul 14, 2016 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Personal Glide Path
Replies: 7
Views: 837

Re: Personal Glide Path

I see what you are trying to do with keeping each percentage a multiple of 5 percentage points, but I don't understand why you are doing it. It has the effect of making your international stocks as a percentage of all stocks bounce around erratically, as much as 25% above the target in one year and ...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's with the criticisms of bond ladders
Replies: 33
Views: 3008

Re: What's with the criticisms of bond ladders

People who talk about individual bonds (and this is true of Larry's article also), talk about how easy it is to buy bonds, perhaps even at a minimal mark-up. What they never do talk about is selling them if you decide to not hold it until maturity. It is the selling step that scares me away from in...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for 75-year-old with minimal expenses
Replies: 10
Views: 823

Re: Portfolio for 75-year-old with minimal expenses

So if I'm understanding things correctly: Compulsory expenses: $8600 / year Discretionary expenses (actual): $36,600 (including taxes) Discretionary expenses (what you think is reasonable): $10,200 Social Security Income: $19,200 Savings (IRA plus checking): $261K So it seems to me that almost every...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Jul 12, 2016 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help with rather disorganized portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1028

Re: Please help with rather disorganized portfolio

You have done the hard work already (figuring out what you want). With your options, the rest is easy. 1. From my reading of the Bogleheads wiki, clearly my current investments don't even come close to a Lazy, 3 or 4 fund approach. Is it worth reallocating my funds in my various accounts to achieve ...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Private vs State School?
Replies: 116
Views: 6160

Re: Private vs State School?

I feel for you. I am a year from my first college tuition bills, possibly two of them, and I find that my earlier blanket cost-is-no-object plan feels more tenuous as the prospects loom closer. But I don't think there are any simple rules to follow. In addition to weighing the relative merits of the...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where would you invest/rebalance "if"...
Replies: 24
Views: 1210

Re: Where would you invest/rebalance "if"...

Stocks can be overvalued, but that doesn't mean you should sell them. Their valuations could correct through increased earnings, not falling prices. Or they could correct through a pathway that is not predictable so better to wait it out. So the first part of your premise carries no actionable impor...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: What Is The Sustainable Spending Rate For Retirees In 2016?
Replies: 29
Views: 3622

Re: Wade Pfau: What Is The Sustainable Spending Rate For Retirees In 2016?

"safe" = guaranteed sustainable
"sustainable" = sustainable

Essentially they are the same thing, because I doubt that anyone advocating "safe withdrawal rates" ever meant to guarantee them.
by Aptenodytes
Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirement spending/glide path
Replies: 25
Views: 2776

Re: Early retirement spending/glide path

If 60% stocks is the right allocation in 6 months, 85% is the wrong allocation today. Change your AA immediately.
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jul 11, 2016 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dollar cost averaging vs. buying and holding on dips of 5 %
Replies: 5
Views: 817

Re: dollar cost averaging vs. buying and holding on dips of 5 %

On average, returns favor the person invested, not the person not invested. This isn't complicated, and it is the fundamental reason we invest. The reasons for holding back on an investment are related to psychology and behavior, not returns. So if you are looking for studies to guide your decisions...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jul 11, 2016 5:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Chances of <15% marginal income tax in retirement
Replies: 18
Views: 2347

Re: Chances of <15% marginal income tax in retirement

Thoughts? Any retirees that have entirely stayed under the 15% income tax bracket that want to weight in? For a middle class married couple it is pretty easy to do. You can use Tax Caster to see that an over 65 couple can have over $95,000 in income and still be in the 15% federal tax bracket. If t...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jul 11, 2016 5:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA- Traditional (which one?) vs Bond Market
Replies: 7
Views: 535

Re: TIAA- Traditional (which one?) vs Bond Market

What don't you like about the TIAA Traditional?

In your shoes I would jump at the chance to put 30-40% of my non-stock holdings in the TIAA Traditional. It makes a good complement to Total Bond.
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jul 10, 2016 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S+P 500 is not very diversified
Replies: 77
Views: 5320

Re: S+P 500 is not very diversified

@nisiprius, I'm confused by your last post in this thread. Tilting to small value is not considered a diversification play. It is a play aimed at exploiting the alleged premium in that asset factor.
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jul 10, 2016 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we assume that a well diversified portfolio will inevitably increase over the long term?
Replies: 52
Views: 3896

Re: Why do we assume that a well diversified portfolio will inevitably increase over the long term?

As long as the companies that make up the stock market continue to increase earnings (profits), the stock market will continue to go up. Common sense right. Sort of. The stock market also has to well regulated. I don't know what you mean. I left out a word but that may not be what made me unclear. ...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jul 10, 2016 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best bond strategy going forward?
Replies: 23
Views: 2223

Re: Best bond strategy going forward?

You say you want to understand more about how bond funds work, but you don't pose any specific questions regarding how they work. Your current bond holdings have significant exposure to default risk and to duration risk (because your funds hold a lot of commercial and long-term debt). So I would agr...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jul 10, 2016 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Email compromised: How serious?
Replies: 42
Views: 2630

Re: Email compromised: How serious?

The password for my email account was and is unique. Victoria that's great - then after you change that one account's password, you are fine. nothing else to worry about. It depends on how paranoid / prudent you want to be. It is possible that a patient and devious hacker could use the email/passwo...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car financing choice.
Replies: 11
Views: 1078

Re: Car financing choice.

I financed my last two new cars through PenFed at .75% and .99% respectively (4-year loans). If I were in your shoes and could get such rates that's definitely what I'd do. I just checked, though, and PenFed is offering 4-year new car loans at 1.99%, which may make the calculation more difficult. Mu...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jul 10, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we assume that a well diversified portfolio will inevitably increase over the long term?
Replies: 52
Views: 3896

Re: Why do we assume that a well diversified portfolio will inevitably increase over the long term?

Abe wrote:As long as the companies that make up the stock market continue to increase earnings (profits), the stock market will continue to go up. Common sense right.

Sort of.
The stock market also has to well regulated.
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jul 10, 2016 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Choosing an Index Fund for Sm,Md,Lg,Value,Blend,Groth
Replies: 8
Views: 740

Re: Choosing an Index Fund for Sm,Md,Lg,Value,Blend,Groth

You are asking how to tilt, and some people are responding "don't tilt." Here's my answer to your "how to tilt" question: 1) Focus on the proven factors and tune out everything else . Small-cap, value, small-value are all definitely worth looking at. Some other pieces of the 3x3 ...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jul 10, 2016 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Q on merging retirement accounts
Replies: 12
Views: 1086

Re: Q on merging retirement accounts

You can almost definitely roll over the 401k to an IRA at Vanguard, if "another employer" signifies "former employer." Call Vanguard or read the info on the Web site to understand how. Don't make any mistakes in the procedures or you'll pay dearly (a reason to let Vanguard handle...

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