Search found 1490 matches

by Angst
Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS are great in "theory." But real world...
Replies: 31
Views: 2239

Re: TIPS are great in "theory." But real world...

Sometimes I feel like BH posters are shoulders ahead of me when it comes to the underpinnings of the points being made in the threads stitched hereabouts in the fabric of our wonderful BH's domain, and I too struggle with this...

I'm sorry, I'm drinking coffee way too late into the night.
by Angst
Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term TIPS in retirement portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 1785

Re: Short Term TIPS in retirement portfolio

[snip...]although I am intrigued by the poster who said to liquidate the most overweighted positions (kind of rebalancing as you withdraw). Some might think that is too much in equities for a retiree in the withdrawal stage, but I am aggressive and sleep OK in bear markets. Vanguard's Target Retire...
by Angst
Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS are great in "theory." But real world...
Replies: 31
Views: 2239

Re: TIPS are great in "theory." But real world...

By all means, your instincts are correct: Never invest in something you don't have a good understanding of. If you want to learn more, there is a lot of information out there. I suggest you avoid what is often just simplistic fear-mongering, and I'd read something more in depth than just a thread he...
by Angst
Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An index isn't an index isn't an index...
Replies: 23
Views: 2118

Re: An index isn't an index isn't an index...

- I don't think it's useful to focus on comparing the CRSP to the S&P indexes - it's far less meaningful as the S&P is constituted by committee. - But the Russell, MSCI and Dow indexes are each, in aggregate purportedly total market cap-weighted indexes, like CRSP, and broken out by both cap...
by Angst
Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An index isn't an index isn't an index...
Replies: 23
Views: 2118

Re: An index isn't an index isn't an index...

Bump... I can accept, somewhat blindly albeit, that the S&P selection process makes comparison with its indexes a little problematic, but the others? I'm curious what's going on. My emphasis below. Let me advertise another blog post from Barry, a short & sweet and especially striking post, a...
by Angst
Tue Jan 17, 2017 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1129
Views: 151696

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I just find it very strange how confidently some people are posting "Here's a free lunch." Please show an actual quote where someone said this about alternatives Larry This can be easily addressed, at least as far as this thread is concerned, with the "search this topic" link at...
by Angst
Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 401k Problem We Refuse to Solve"
Replies: 49
Views: 4236

Re: "The 401k Problem We Refuse to Solve"

It's a good suggestion to buy tips in an ira. One problem is thAt for some people they are not tax advantaged in which cAse i struggle to recommend them. Agreed. Part of what I like about the idea of maxing the IRA annually from age 35 is how contributions will grow with inflation (roughly) as allo...
by Angst
Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 401k Problem We Refuse to Solve"
Replies: 49
Views: 4236

Re: "The 401k Problem We Refuse to Solve"

Interpreted somewhat literally, this is basically an argument for the liability matching portfolio (LMP) approach advocated by Bernstein, Bodie, et al. in other words, start buying 30 year tips when you are say 35 years old and keep buying them for 30 years until you retire at age 65. Then you will...
by Angst
Sat Jan 07, 2017 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Commodities Still a Good Portfolio Diversifier?
Replies: 51
Views: 2533

Re: Are Commodities Still a Good Portfolio Diversifier?

Larry,
Any chance you would want to weigh in with your current opinion on commodities? I haven't read you new book yet.
by Angst
Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me Choose 401k Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 411

Re: Help me Choose 401k Funds

I second what both Trev H and selters have suggested above. And not only meet your 4% match but try to maximize your 401k and then maximize your allowed IRA as well and use that as a baseline from which you can eventually begin considering investing taxable investments as well. Get used to automatic...
by Angst
Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on ishares multifactor ETFs?
Replies: 9
Views: 1278

Re: Thoughts on ishares multifactor ETFs?

My only real beef with the iShares multifactor ETFs is AUM. These are at risk of eventual closure, I would think. Also you've got to account for the probability for a switch to a different index somewhere down the line, quite possibly to one I or others might not like as much. So I would hesitate t...
by Angst
Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Choice Of Bond Funds For Retirees Late In Life
Replies: 11
Views: 1600

Re: Choice Of Bond Funds For Retirees Late In Life

Thank you for all the responses. I will be transferring some funds from intermediate bond funds and purchase the Short Term Investment Grade Fund from which I will withdraw necessary distributions such as RMDs. I'm sure you see this, but I'll point out that the duration of your entire bond portfoli...
by Angst
Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I-bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 3298

Re: I-bonds

By the way you do something to transfer the converted bonds over to be shown with all your other bonds so they are all in one place. I couldn't possibly tell you what the process is (it was fairly obtuse) but it is doable (google it or look at the help on the website) and definitely more convenient...
by Angst
Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I-bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 3298

Re: I-bonds

By the way you do something to transfer the converted bonds over to be shown with all your other bonds so they are all in one place. I couldn't possibly tell you what the process is (it was fairly obtuse) but it is doable (google it or look at the help on the website) and definitely more convenient...
by Angst
Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I-bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 3298

Re: I-bonds

Within the past 12 months, I encountered a lot of roadblocks trying to deal with paper I bonds, conversion of paper to electronic, etc. The process was unbelievable complicated and unnecessarily time consuming. I have no idea how an average investor deals with such complexity, and I feel for heirs ...
by Angst
Tue Jan 03, 2017 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?
Replies: 168
Views: 8616

Re: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?

I'm way behind the arc of this thread and will probably remain there - too busy now to keep up - but I liked jalbert's responses and thought I'd toss in a few ¢ [Snip...] Some people believe in establishing an income floor to cover essential expenses. If you do this with a TIPs portfolio, you need t...
by Angst
Thu Dec 29, 2016 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many of you invest 100% at Vanguard?
Replies: 118
Views: 7254

Re: How many of you invest 100% at Vanguard?

Oh... about 70 to 75% is at Vanguard, the remainder is split among the following: - TD Ameritrade -HSA - Utah 529/DFA - Treasury Direct - I Bonds/EE Bonds/TIPS Ladder - Fidelity - Spartan TSM - US Govt - Future SS (not included in above %) - Current Employer - Future pension (not included in above ...
by Angst
Thu Dec 29, 2016 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many of you invest 100% at Vanguard?
Replies: 118
Views: 7254

Re: How many of you invest 100% at Vanguard?

Oh... about 70 to 75% is at Vanguard, the remainder is split among the following: - TD Ameritrade -HSA - Utah 529/DFA - Treasury Direct - I Bonds/EE Bonds/TIPS Ladder - Fidelity - Spartan TSM - US Govt - Future SS (not included in above %) - Current Employer - Future pension (not included in above %...
by Angst
Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen says "never have anything weighted more than 30%"
Replies: 42
Views: 4264

Re: David Swensen says "never have anything weighted more than 30%"

Larry, Your recent post above in this thread got me thinking, and I started wondering about looking at the typical equity/bond ratio asset allocation people commonly focus on in their IPS with regard to your focus on factors. Is focusing on asset classes with regards to ones IPS passe these days? I....
by Angst
Wed Dec 21, 2016 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fortune Article - Vanguard Flexes Its Muscle
Replies: 43
Views: 5353

Re: Fortune Article - Vanguard Flexes Its Muscle

KyleAAA wrote:Are we a cult? I believe the Wells Fargo factoid is correct.

There's a T-shirt in that somewhere.
"I drunk the Kool-Aid"
by Angst
Tue Dec 20, 2016 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIP: record inflows but price is going down?
Replies: 32
Views: 2895

Re: TIP: record inflows but price is going down?

Future inflation expectations (and fear) have increased, and real (TIPS) rates have increased (30 yr from 0.71 to 1.14) since the election, so existing bonds (ETFs/funds) have dropped in value, but people are buying (inflows) to protect against future, increased expectations and fears. And good Bogl...
by Angst
Sat Dec 17, 2016 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which do you think is more likely to happen?
Replies: 27
Views: 2479

Re: Which do you think is more likely to happen?

1) A 20 year period in which a balanced portfolio of total world stock market index and bonds (60/40) averages negative real returns OR 2) Within the next 50 years gold loses almost all value. It's no longer seen as a "precious metal". It's value almost exclusively is from industrial usag...
by Angst
Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ellis: "Under 40 years old - 100% in Stocks"
Replies: 54
Views: 5649

Re: Ellis: "Under 40 years old - 100% in Stocks"

I haven't read the article, but I find these rules of thumb as somewhat useless, and borderline dumb. What if you're one to panic in a crash you've never experienced before? What if you're unlucky enough or so "qualified" in terms of the employment market that you lose your job and are out...
by Angst
Thu Dec 15, 2016 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 471
Views: 59087

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

Ah, I had a wonderful dinner, and all the while, #Cruncher was laying out the digits with clarity and in such an organized fashion as I would never have been able to pull off. Thank you so much! My overall takeaway - something I don't recall having heard discussed here before - is that generally spe...
by Angst
Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 471
Views: 59087

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

And duration in a TIPS fund is with respect to real rates. In a treasury fund it's nominal rates. Are not real rates typically lower than nominal rates? And therefor, shouldn't their volatility be lower than nominal rates as well? That would ameliorate the implications of a TIPS fund's duration vis...
by Angst
Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 471
Views: 59087

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

And duration in a TIPS fund is with respect to real rates. In a treasury fund it's nominal rates. Are not real rates typically lower than nominal rates? And therefor, shouldn't their volatility be lower than nominal rates as well? That would ameliorate the implications of a TIPS fund's duration vis ...
by Angst
Mon Dec 12, 2016 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why risk slicing and dicing at all
Replies: 52
Views: 4424

Re: Why risk slicing and dicing at all

My reaction is "Why by equity (Beta) at all?" So, buy Treasuries. No, actually buy TIPS - now that's safety! I don't think there's anything safer. If you're willing to buy equity Beta, how do you justify that? And what's your split, 60/40? I view buying small cap value as an extension of l...
by Angst
Fri Dec 09, 2016 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's new "account overview" page... BOO!
Replies: 97
Views: 7800

Re: Vanguard's new "account overview" page... BOO!

Hmmm... I don't see the new ticker, etc. so at least mine has not changed yet. On the other hand, even the existing one is pretty large, but my browser lets me conviently change the size by just using <cntrl>- (smaller) or <cntrl>+, so it isn't a big deal to me. sandramjet has it right. <ctrl>- PJW...
by Angst
Thu Dec 08, 2016 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's new "account overview" page... BOO!
Replies: 97
Views: 7800

Re: Vanguard's new "account overview" page... BOO!

I'm surprised nobody else is griping. If not for this thread, I probably wouldn't have known. I login with a link that takes me straight to the balances and holdings page. Now, it has its own set of problems... don't get me started! But at least I'm missing out on the special edition/headline-forma...
by Angst
Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's new "account overview" page... BOO!
Replies: 97
Views: 7800

Re: Vanguard's new "account overview" page... BOO!

Wow, that is Screamin' large!! So, what's the logic where giant fonts are used at the overview page but not across the board? Are boomers unlikely to explore any farther than that? Just another example of dumb Vanguard IT formatting. Don't get me started!
by Angst
Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR - Alternative Thinking 4Q 2016: Superstar Investors
Replies: 22
Views: 1484

Re: AQR - Alternative Thinking 4Q 2016: Superstar Investors

No one says skill doesn't exist, and clearly Lynch had skill. But with that said, his alpha declined sharply over time, and it was greatest when he ran a private fund for the Johnsons and had very small amount of assets, and markets were less efficient and competition was much easier for whole vari...
by Angst
Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR - Alternative Thinking 4Q 2016: Superstar Investors
Replies: 22
Views: 1484

Re: AQR - Alternative Thinking 4Q 2016: Superstar Investors

What's happened is that the academic research has effectively converted what was once alpha (skill) into beta (or loading on a factor) which is a commodity. One you can charge a lot for because it's a scarce resource, the other should be relatively cheap as it's a commodity. Larry, I'm confused - m...
by Angst
Wed Dec 07, 2016 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Bonds a Good Investment Now?
Replies: 35
Views: 4675

Re: Are Bonds a Good Investment Now?

My thinking generally falls along the lines of "The heck with 'expectations'."

That which brings the underperforming assets of your asset allocation as defined in your IPS back into balance, is a good investment now.
by Angst
Tue Nov 29, 2016 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An interesting new value metric--maximum dividend
Replies: 20
Views: 2197

Re: An interesting new value metric--maximum dividend

bjr to my knowledge DFA did not. That piece internal DFA research paper can probably find on their website Larry Larry, perhaps the article isn't available to the public at large yet, at least Google doesn't seem to be able to find it, but bjr might find this interesting: I know it's not the what w...
by Angst
Sat Nov 26, 2016 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 10986

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

^Thankyou Robert T for posting all your considerations listed in your previous post above. I really value and get a lot out of your posts. [Snip...] Would just note that adding a small allocation to cross-sectional momentum can help offset negative momentum loads of value funds and thereby reduce th...
by Angst
Fri Nov 25, 2016 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 10986

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

I don't understand how TS Momentum results in shifting asset allocation. I thought long stocks going up and short stocks going down would eliminate stock risk and isolate TS Momentum premium. The long and short sides aren't equal? Thanks, Dave Dave, I'm not sure if this is exactly right, but I'm gu...
by Angst
Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What IS this? Salad tongs for elves?
Replies: 61
Views: 6535

Re: What IS this? Salad tongs for elves?

^ I think the screw-eye, especially in the 2nd pic, looks like modern vintage - and there appears to be enough gap that it might have just been slid on, but who knows - you might be right. Drapes, skirts... back in the day, they had a lot in common.
by Angst
Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What IS this? Salad tongs for elves?
Replies: 61
Views: 6535

Re: What IS this? Salad tongs for elves?

Well, my google image search idea above didn't work out very well - Google thought it was looking at a crossbow! But the skirt-lifter idea looks like a good possibility. Here's a pic and a website behind it with more info and pics: http://blog.fidmmuseum.org/.a/6a01156f47abbe970c01901ee48f73970b-800...
by Angst
Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS vs. I-Bonds: any reason to prefer TIPS?
Replies: 20
Views: 3180

Re: TIPS vs. I-Bonds: any reason to prefer TIPS?

One possible advantage of I Bonds over TIPS that I haven't seen discussed much is that interest earned on I Bonds is automatically reinvested at the fixed rate. This isn't the case with TIPS. If not spent, coupon interest received must be reinvested at real rates prevailing at the time. This is a c...
by Angst
Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 10986

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Thank you to both lack_ey and Larry for the very helpful responses above, on page 2 - lack_ey's here and Larry's following . I have a much better handle now on why Momentum, TS in particular, has not mirrored the availability of small cap and value funds in the past, and probably won't anytime soon....
by Angst
Thu Nov 24, 2016 2:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What IS this? Salad tongs for elves?
Replies: 61
Views: 6535

Re: What IS this? Salad tongs for elves?

My suggestion is to take another photo of it but on a plain, white background without the ruler or any other objects included. Then post the pic on the web and search google for the pic and see what you come up with. I tried right-clicking on the one you posted to search google images but it came up...
by Angst
Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 10986

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Well, it's not even been that long since indexing or smart beta type concepts were that popular. Yes, it might not have been very popular for a good while, but cap-weighted indexing has been available in a retail fund continuously, ever since the 70's, and small cap and value funds, if not true &qu...
by Angst
Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 10986

Re: An early momentum fund -- FUNDX

Why haven't there already been hundreds of momentum funds out there, for decades and decades, just as there have been value and small cap funds? I don't get it. Obviously, I must be missing something. Angst: Many years ago I considered investing in a momentum fund recommended by a newsletter. It wa...
by Angst
Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 10986

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Thanks lack_ey, I do appreciate the depth and sincerity of your response, although I pretty much still stand by what I said in my previous post . Yes, I was being a little facetious with the comment about MTUM, but I was making a point. I do understand that there has been research for years, but as ...
by Angst
Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 10986

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

It's called time-series momentum and over decades and decades has a factor return greater than that of stock market beta with virtually no correlation to anything. Relax. I must confess - I find this kind of supposedly self-evident superiority of momentum to equity beta a little too new to swallow ...
by Angst
Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS vs. I-Bonds: any reason to prefer TIPS?
Replies: 20
Views: 3180

Re: TIPS vs. I-Bonds: any reason to prefer TIPS?

I frame it as an asset location question. If you want to hold inflation-indexed bonds in taxable space, I-bonds are preferred. If you want to locate them in a tax-qualified account, i-bonds are not an option. jalbert, to be precise, would it not clarify your last sentence above to say: " If yo...
by Angst
Wed Nov 23, 2016 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When is the best time to get into Bond Market?
Replies: 30
Views: 3586

Re: When is the best time to get into Bond Market?

I've done a wee bit of rebalancing recently, mostly from a redirecting of new contributions, so I'd like to think the best time has just passed, but time will tell. It might be yet to come.
by Angst
Wed Nov 23, 2016 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 471
Views: 59087

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

^ Nice post! I'm with you, WB. That's the gist of what I too have been building towards, more or less. As such, I have no reason to "give up" on TIPS. And as to the OP's interminable complaining of the lack of monthly dividends, I couldn't care less. I'm counting on the maturity value of m...
by Angst
Fri Nov 18, 2016 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.
Replies: 171
Views: 20219

Re: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.

[snip...] isn't it a proposed rise TO between 50 and 75 basis points? FED does not intend to raise the borrowing rate 50 or 75 basis points. That's my impression too, so if they raised it another 25 basis points, it would be at 50, and the CME Fed Tool estimate of 50-75 would be just as correct as ...
by Angst
Thu Nov 17, 2016 9:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to buy a Vanguard hat?
Replies: 44
Views: 4819

Re: Where to buy a Vanguard hat?

Nowhere can I find you your hat, but here's a mug with which you can drink the drink in which you might want to drown your sorrows:

Image

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