Search found 1460 matches

by Angst
Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR - Alternative Thinking 4Q 2016: Superstar Investors
Replies: 17
Views: 798

Re: AQR - Alternative Thinking 4Q 2016: Superstar Investors

No one says skill doesn't exist, and clearly Lynch had skill. But with that said, his alpha declined sharply over time, and it was greatest when he ran a private fund for the Johnsons and had very small amount of assets, and markets were less efficient and competition was much easier for whole vari...
by Angst
Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR - Alternative Thinking 4Q 2016: Superstar Investors
Replies: 17
Views: 798

Re: AQR - Alternative Thinking 4Q 2016: Superstar Investors

What's happened is that the academic research has effectively converted what was once alpha (skill) into beta (or loading on a factor) which is a commodity. One you can charge a lot for because it's a scarce resource, the other should be relatively cheap as it's a commodity. Larry, I'm confused - m...
by Angst
Wed Dec 07, 2016 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Bonds a Good Investment Now?
Replies: 26
Views: 2510

Re: Are Bonds a Good Investment Now?

My thinking generally falls along the lines of "The heck with 'expectations'."

That which brings the underperforming assets of your asset allocation as defined in your IPS back into balance, is a good investment now.
by Angst
Tue Nov 29, 2016 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An interesting new value metric--maximum dividend
Replies: 20
Views: 2019

Re: An interesting new value metric--maximum dividend

bjr to my knowledge DFA did not. That piece internal DFA research paper can probably find on their website Larry Larry, perhaps the article isn't available to the public at large yet, at least Google doesn't seem to be able to find it, but bjr might find this interesting: I know it's not the what w...
by Angst
Sat Nov 26, 2016 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 9135

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

^Thankyou Robert T for posting all your considerations listed in your previous post above. I really value and get a lot out of your posts. [Snip...] Would just note that adding a small allocation to cross-sectional momentum can help offset negative momentum loads of value funds and thereby reduce th...
by Angst
Fri Nov 25, 2016 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 9135

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

I don't understand how TS Momentum results in shifting asset allocation. I thought long stocks going up and short stocks going down would eliminate stock risk and isolate TS Momentum premium. The long and short sides aren't equal? Thanks, Dave Dave, I'm not sure if this is exactly right, but I'm gu...
by Angst
Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What IS this? Salad tongs for elves?
Replies: 61
Views: 5362

Re: What IS this? Salad tongs for elves?

^ I think the screw-eye, especially in the 2nd pic, looks like modern vintage - and there appears to be enough gap that it might have just been slid on, but who knows - you might be right. Drapes, skirts... back in the day, they had a lot in common.
by Angst
Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What IS this? Salad tongs for elves?
Replies: 61
Views: 5362

Re: What IS this? Salad tongs for elves?

Well, my google image search idea above didn't work out very well - Google thought it was looking at a crossbow! But the skirt-lifter idea looks like a good possibility. Here's a pic and a website behind it with more info and pics: http://blog.fidmmuseum.org/.a/6a01156f47abbe970c01901ee48f73970b-800...
by Angst
Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS vs. I-Bonds: any reason to prefer TIPS?
Replies: 20
Views: 2858

Re: TIPS vs. I-Bonds: any reason to prefer TIPS?

One possible advantage of I Bonds over TIPS that I haven't seen discussed much is that interest earned on I Bonds is automatically reinvested at the fixed rate. This isn't the case with TIPS. If not spent, coupon interest received must be reinvested at real rates prevailing at the time. This is a c...
by Angst
Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 9135

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Thank you to both lack_ey and Larry for the very helpful responses above, on page 2 - lack_ey's here and Larry's following . I have a much better handle now on why Momentum, TS in particular, has not mirrored the availability of small cap and value funds in the past, and probably won't anytime soon....
by Angst
Thu Nov 24, 2016 2:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What IS this? Salad tongs for elves?
Replies: 61
Views: 5362

Re: What IS this? Salad tongs for elves?

My suggestion is to take another photo of it but on a plain, white background without the ruler or any other objects included. Then post the pic on the web and search google for the pic and see what you come up with. I tried right-clicking on the one you posted to search google images but it came up...
by Angst
Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 9135

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Well, it's not even been that long since indexing or smart beta type concepts were that popular. Yes, it might not have been very popular for a good while, but cap-weighted indexing has been available in a retail fund continuously, ever since the 70's, and small cap and value funds, if not true &qu...
by Angst
Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 9135

Re: An early momentum fund -- FUNDX

Why haven't there already been hundreds of momentum funds out there, for decades and decades, just as there have been value and small cap funds? I don't get it. Obviously, I must be missing something. Angst: Many years ago I considered investing in a momentum fund recommended by a newsletter. It wa...
by Angst
Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 9135

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Thanks lack_ey, I do appreciate the depth and sincerity of your response, although I pretty much still stand by what I said in my previous post . Yes, I was being a little facetious with the comment about MTUM, but I was making a point. I do understand that there has been research for years, but as ...
by Angst
Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 9135

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

It's called time-series momentum and over decades and decades has a factor return greater than that of stock market beta with virtually no correlation to anything. Relax. I must confess - I find this kind of supposedly self-evident superiority of momentum to equity beta a little too new to swallow ...
by Angst
Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS vs. I-Bonds: any reason to prefer TIPS?
Replies: 20
Views: 2858

Re: TIPS vs. I-Bonds: any reason to prefer TIPS?

I frame it as an asset location question. If you want to hold inflation-indexed bonds in taxable space, I-bonds are preferred. If you want to locate them in a tax-qualified account, i-bonds are not an option. jalbert, to be precise, would it not clarify your last sentence above to say: " If yo...
by Angst
Wed Nov 23, 2016 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When is the best time to get into Bond Market?
Replies: 30
Views: 3318

Re: When is the best time to get into Bond Market?

I've done a wee bit of rebalancing recently, mostly from a redirecting of new contributions, so I'd like to think the best time has just passed, but time will tell. It might be yet to come.
by Angst
Wed Nov 23, 2016 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 445
Views: 53862

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

^ Nice post! I'm with you, WB. That's the gist of what I too have been building towards, more or less. As such, I have no reason to "give up" on TIPS. And as to the OP's interminable complaining of the lack of monthly dividends, I couldn't care less. I'm counting on the maturity value of m...
by Angst
Fri Nov 18, 2016 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.
Replies: 171
Views: 19328

Re: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.

[snip...] isn't it a proposed rise TO between 50 and 75 basis points? FED does not intend to raise the borrowing rate 50 or 75 basis points. That's my impression too, so if they raised it another 25 basis points, it would be at 50, and the CME Fed Tool estimate of 50-75 would be just as correct as ...
by Angst
Thu Nov 17, 2016 9:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to buy a Vanguard hat?
Replies: 44
Views: 4425

Re: Where to buy a Vanguard hat?

Nowhere can I find you your hat, but here's a mug with which you can drink the drink in which you might want to drown your sorrows:

Image
by Angst
Thu Nov 17, 2016 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.
Replies: 171
Views: 19328

Re: Why are bonds dropping? They are supposed to be safe.

Fed Open Market Meeting 14 December 2016 The CME Fed Watch Tool is predicting a 90% plus probability of a Fed target target rate rise of 50-75 bps. That's BIG . Forecast is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices. http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html Doc, ...
by Angst
Thu Nov 17, 2016 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS Auction Nov 17
Replies: 6
Views: 856

Re: TIPS Auction Nov 17

^ You're welcome! All things considered, I think the pricing turned out pretty well for this auction.
by Angst
Thu Nov 17, 2016 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS Auction Nov 17
Replies: 6
Views: 856

Re: TIPS Auction Nov 17

The high yield came in today at 0.369%. Here are the complete treasury auction results.
by Angst
Tue Nov 15, 2016 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is Vanguard Roth IRA conversion value of TIPs lower than their market value?
Replies: 17
Views: 1068

Re: Why is Vanguard Roth IRA conversion value of TIPs lower than their market value?

Have you gone into the "buy bonds" area and built a ladder there as well? If not, go there and enter all your cusips and update them with the number of each bond you own and hit the calculate button and see what it comes up with. It's not hard to imagine, given Vanguard's "quirky"...
by Angst
Tue Nov 15, 2016 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS Auction Nov 17
Replies: 6
Views: 856

Re: TIPS Auction Nov 17

The 10-yr real yield curve was at 0.40% yesterday, higher than it's been since last March and 25 basis points higher since the end of day last Tuesday, 11/08. (Yes, that'd be data mining...) Indicative yield in the after-market is around 0.36%. It looks like it might be good timing for someone who w...
by Angst
Tue Nov 15, 2016 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Take SS at 62 or wait ?
Replies: 74
Views: 7602

Re: Take SS at 62 or wait ?

To address your subject question, I think the "rule of thumb" of leaning towards delaying SS is generally a good, conservative way of approaching it, but not necessarily the right one. I like what Rich in Michigan said above ^ . However, New to Bogleheads. I am reading the Retirement Guide...
by Angst
Thu Nov 10, 2016 4:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!
Replies: 129
Views: 12717

Re: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!

Fyi, I saw in the following thread viewtopic.php?f=10&t=202951&newpost=3111028 that Larry discussed aspects of the new book in a new podcast with Meb Faber. I just listened (it's about an hour long) no huge revelations but fairly well done I thought.
by Angst
Thu Nov 10, 2016 4:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on Meb Faber Show
Replies: 15
Views: 2073

Re: Larry Swedroe on Meb Faber Show

Thanks for the heads up - I just finished listening to the entire thing. Well done - I'd never heard one of Meb Faber's podcasts before. I found it here: http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-meb ... oplay=true
by Angst
Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds are getting crushed...
Replies: 42
Views: 8867

Re: Bonds are getting crushed...

10-yr Treasury rate up 21 basis points. :) I just finished working on some unexpected rebalancing oppportunities. An unusual 24 hours it has been.
by Angst
Sun Nov 06, 2016 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign Stocks: Keep the Faith - Jonathan Clements
Replies: 53
Views: 5687

Re: Foreign Stocks: Keep the Faith - Jonathan Clements

...If the only 2 options in the world were the US and Venezuela you would feel equal weight (adjusted for size of the economy) would still be a great idea?... Obligatory: Bolivars seem cheap. Bolivars are on sale. Great buying opportunity! I really don't get it - what's your point? In your "on...
by Angst
Thu Nov 03, 2016 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 445
Views: 53862

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

Bogleheads, 8 pages and 400 hundred posts later. This is a great thread and very educational. Thanks! Abuss, since your original post... The current interest rate environment is challenging. Inflation forecasts appear very tame. There are so many inflation hawks today, with many market tools and an...
by Angst
Thu Nov 03, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Brand new member enrolling in 401K for first time
Replies: 36
Views: 1490

Re: Brand new member enrolling in 401K for first time

Thanks for clarifying. Do you think at my age (29) that I should 100% into ABALX, or add it one of the growth funds due to the fact that ABALX contains significant bond holdings? I ask because from everything I've read it makes sense to invest heavily in stocks in your 20's and 30's, and increase y...
by Angst
Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Dollar Cost Average using ETFs
Replies: 5
Views: 391

Re: How to Dollar Cost Average using ETFs

luckybamboo wrote:1. Open an account with Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab etc and take advantage of their low cost index [or ETF] funds that can be traded for free.

There's your answer.
by Angst
Sat Oct 29, 2016 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to go for blood tests (w. no insurance)
Replies: 22
Views: 2280

Re: Where to go for blood tests (w. no insurance)

Hi Bogleheads- I was wondering if anyone knew of a good place to go for blood tests without insurance. I've done some internet research and I haven't come up with a real great answer. As always, thanks for your help and comments. -Diesel Call your city or county health department and ask them for a...
by Angst
Mon Oct 24, 2016 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast
Replies: 380
Views: 28402

Re: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast

Kevin M wrote:Yeah, that's been my understanding as well, but it actually looks like real dividends (not dividend yield) have spiked in recent years, so this has me scratching my head a bit.

Is that a function of recent negative short-term real rates?
by Angst
Thu Oct 20, 2016 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Ibond variable rate 2.76% on November 1st. Thoughts?
Replies: 87
Views: 12580

Re: New Ibond variable rate 2.76% on November 1st. Thoughts?

I think that if you happen to be one of those who's primary reason for holding on to some I Bonds is for holding a cash-like asset, little of the I Bonds vs. TIPS vs. CD's discussion is really that important. Buy the November I Bond and once you get to November 2017, it's better than cash; it's infl...
by Angst
Thu Oct 20, 2016 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Ibond variable rate 2.76% on November 1st. Thoughts?
Replies: 87
Views: 12580

Re: New Ibond variable rate 2.76% on November 1st. Thoughts?

Angst, How do you deal with taxes? That is my biggest question on your method. I was thinking along same lines but haven't invested in them so far due to tax cost on selling. Your usage is similar to seeing them as a CD from a different bank named treasury. I simply pay my taxes when they're due, i...
by Angst
Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Ibond variable rate 2.76% on November 1st. Thoughts?
Replies: 87
Views: 12580

Re: New Ibond variable rate 2.76% on November 1st. Thoughts?

How do people typically work with I-Bonds? Do you monitor the composite rate every 6 months and if a year has gone by, then decide whether to redeem/hold/(redeem and re-buy later) depending on how good the composite rate is OR kinda like fire and forget, where you just buy the I-Bonds and then hold...
by Angst
Wed Oct 19, 2016 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Ibond variable rate 2.76% on November 1st. Thoughts?
Replies: 87
Views: 12580

Re: New Ibond variable rate 2.76% on November 1st. Thoughts?

I would purchase at the end of November. I don't imagine the fixed rate going down, but I think there's a reasonable chance of it going up. The FOMC meets in two weeks, on Tue/Wed, Nov 1st/2nd. I believe that the new savings bonds rates are to be announced on Nov 1st, correct? If so, they won't know...
by Angst
Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors
Replies: 181
Views: 25505

Re: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors

Ah, I didn't know that. At one time it seemed like this wasn't the case anywhere, unless you were tied to some sort of advisor associated with AQR. So that's good for people holding their I-class shares of AQR funds at Fidelity. Nice to know it works both there and at Vanguard. What kind of fees do...
by Angst
Mon Oct 10, 2016 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors
Replies: 181
Views: 25505

Re: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors

It is once again possible to buy QSPIX at Fidelity. I just did it last week. But I already had shares there which I'd purchased before the close date. Ah, I didn't know that. At one time it seemed like this wasn't the case anywhere, unless you were tied to some sort of advisor associated with AQR. ...
by Angst
Mon Oct 10, 2016 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors
Replies: 181
Views: 25505

Re: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors

For those of you who hold QSPIX, but also have QSPNX b/c you can no longer add to your QSPIX, transferring in-kind from Fidelity (or wherever you hold your AQR funds) to Vanguard (if you can do this) is probably worth doing. I think this would apply to most if not all I-class AQR funds. From my past...
by Angst
Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction: Announced 10/13: yield 0.6%?
Replies: 66
Views: 5458

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction: Announced 10/13: yield 0.6%?

Thank you grok for the links. I have no trouble conceptualizing your logic, but the papers you referenced utilize math that is largely beyond my grasp. I can appreciate their conclusions nonetheless, of course, but I prefer the simplicity of your math. My questioning is clearly fairly unsophisticate...
by Angst
Wed Oct 05, 2016 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction: Announced 10/13: yield 0.6%?
Replies: 66
Views: 5458

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction: Announced 10/13: yield 0.6%?

[snip...] so which situation are we in right now? I think we are likely in 1). i.e. (true) expected inflation is greater than breakeven. See for example the Philadelphia fed survey https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2016/spf...
by Angst
Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why not just buy BRK
Replies: 85
Views: 7788

Re: why not just buy BRK

Buffett thinks that beta is pretty much worthless. I recommend looking it up further Thanks for the book suggestion! Wow... worthless? But he recommends the S&P 500! Oh well, I enjoy owning a few shares in the cumulative result of his investments in things he has found to be of worth. :) I do h...
by Angst
Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why not just buy BRK
Replies: 85
Views: 7788

Re: why not just buy BRK

My recollection of the Katherine Graham years at the Washington Post is a little foggy. I think she actually hired Ben Bradlee and her relationship with Buffett dates back into the 1970's. Her book also had some great Watergate history in it, now that I think more about it.
by Angst
Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why not just buy BRK
Replies: 85
Views: 7788

Re: why not just buy BRK

Have your read Buffett's opinion on the value of things like beta? No, I have to confess I haven't. Actually, I know very little about his ideas with regards to personal investing, beyond what he's said about the S&P 500 for his wife (I think it was about her). Anyhow, except for the occasional...
by Angst
Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why not just buy BRK
Replies: 85
Views: 7788

Re: why not just buy BRK

How about we stay on topic? That sounds good to me, knpstr. I don't have a lot to add. I do follow most BRK threads simply because of how much I respect Warren Buffett, not only for his history with BRK, but for his lifetime of involvement with all sorts of people and the intelligence and wisdom he...
by Angst
Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why not just buy BRK
Replies: 85
Views: 7788

Re: why not just buy BRK

My handle is knpstr. Please get it correct... kempster isn't even close, not even in the amount of letters involved. I already got in trouble for calling you Barry, which is a much closer mistake. C'mon, knpstr. You've posted long enough at the website to know how often Larry twists up people's han...
by Angst
Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction: Announced 10/13: yield 0.6%?
Replies: 66
Views: 5458

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction: Announced 10/13: yield 0.6%?

[snip...] and I'm hoping for a 0.6% real yield. Current secondary market yields are at 0.55% but often the auction yield is a few bps higher. It's funny, over the last 3 days long-term nominal rates have been trending upwards while real rates are slightly down, or flat at best. And today, the 10-yr...

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