Search found 1366 matches

by Angst
Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 1718
Views: 403312

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Just finishing the duology I, Claudius and Claudius the God by Robert Graves. The first was quite good, the second a bit more meandering but I think I'm just tiring of the subject/voice after two reasonably sized books. I too read both of these a year or so ago and found them quite interesting. (I ...
by Angst
Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 1718
Views: 403312

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Just finished "Classic Feynman". A collection of vignettes from a wonderful, amazing character. Nobel laureate, iconoclast, irrepressible questioner: Richard P. Feynman, an MIT/Princeton trained Los Alamos theoretical physicist, Cal Tech professor, Challenger space shuttle investigator, on...
by Angst
Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs
Replies: 17
Views: 1489

Re: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs

Here's the original thread:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=115965

I've sat tight over the last 3 years with my 6% allocation, split between US and Int'l REITs, rebalancing out mostly, a couple times fairly recently. Not a huge commitment here, admittedly. No complaints.
by Angst
Tue Jul 12, 2016 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Bond Index Funds - High Turnover.
Replies: 14
Views: 1089

Re: Short Bond Index Funds - High Turnover.

Wait a minute. Let's say that you take the 1-3 year fund. That's like a ladder-like fund with two rungs: a 3-year rung, and a 2-year rung. One year later, we end up with a 2-year rung and a 1-year rung. We sell the later and buy a new 3-year rung. Right there, we see a 50% yearly turnover. That's m...
by Angst
Thu Jul 07, 2016 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why most retirees will never spend down their portfolio" by Michael Kitces
Replies: 89
Views: 10622

Re: "Why most retirees will never spend down their portfolio" by Michael Kitces

Pre-retirees are trying to look at your retirement future looking at statistics, reading theories... Will I have enough? Will I have too much? Graphs, tables, books, etc. When you are in well into retirement, today is the future. Today is my future. Future analysis "guesses" don't mean mu...
by Angst
Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why most retirees will never spend down their portfolio" by Michael Kitces
Replies: 89
Views: 10622

Re: "Why most retirees will never spend down their portfolio" by Michael Kitces

Hi Sheepdog , I hope you (and everyone) have read through #Cruncher's post above . I assure you, I don't mean to presume anything about the real value of the ongoing increase you see in your portfolio - it may very well be easily outpacing the small inflation we've had recently - but be that as it m...
by Angst
Wed Jul 06, 2016 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Small Cap Value
Replies: 27
Views: 3346

Re: Emerging Markets Small Cap Value

There is Schwab's Fundamental Emerging Mrkts Lrg. Co. Index ETF FNDE , ER .47. It's certainly not Mid or Small cap, but it does have a value tilt. From M*: V B G L 58 27 6 M 4 3 1 S 1 0 0 [Edit] Here are some previously mentioned EM ETF's, per M*: EMGF - iShares Edge MSCI Multifactor EM ETF ER .65 V...
by Angst
Mon Jul 04, 2016 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deutsche Bank troubles
Replies: 10
Views: 1220

Re: Deutsche Bank troubles

I wouldn't give undue weight to a Zero Hedge article. They are a doom-and-gloom tabloid and Deutsche Bank is one of their favorite whipping boys. Must keep things in perspective... +1 Having just read the short article, I see no point in starting a thread based on it. I found nothing to recommend it.
by Angst
Mon Jul 04, 2016 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is everyone everywhere saying to buy gold?
Replies: 61
Views: 4789

Re: Why is everyone everywhere saying to buy gold?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-27/here-are-the-countries-with-the-most-gold-reserves-and-the-ones-that-have-been-buying-it-the-most https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i8kksiZwxgEQ/v2/-1x-1.png That's interesting. I wonder why England/Great Britain is not a member of th...
by Angst
Mon Jul 04, 2016 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Questions for the Experts Panel Q&A @ Bogleheads Conference
Replies: 40
Views: 4823

Re: Your Questions for the Experts Panel Q&A @ Bogleheads Conference

For someone who's primary reasons for holding the fixed income portion of their asset allocation in Vanguard's Intermediate Term Govt Bond Index are: 1) protection from volatility in the equity mrkt and 2) limiting interest rate exposure, would not both of these goals be more efficiently managed (wh...
by Angst
Sat Jul 02, 2016 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Diversification w/ Slice & Dice
Replies: 11
Views: 1251

Re: Bond Diversification w/ Slice & Dice

The two strategies I am aware of to slice and dice bonds are the barbell, which keeps long and short duration treasuries but not intermediate, and the junk/TIPS method. The first I investigated and it seemed beneficial. Apparently the high yield bonds and TIPS method comes from Rick Ferri but I hav...
by Angst
Sat Jul 02, 2016 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein 12 — The Societal Risk Premium
Replies: 21
Views: 2010

Re: Classic Bernstein 12 — The Societal Risk Premium

Here is a CAPE Yield variation of the chart posted in the OP, extended from 1871 to 2016 (using annual numbers from mult.com). Basically the same pattern, going from 8% to 6%. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Z50Lwnvwjt8/V3gwB7ZR1jI/AAAAAAAASSc/jb3EVgSiXRYAWqIlnE5pAEFeRhjGQP44ACCo/s800/CAPE%2BYie...
by Angst
Sat Jul 02, 2016 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan's stock market in 1989?
Replies: 6
Views: 908

Re: Japan's stock market in 1989?

We had a long-running series of posts last year by Forum member bpp , who examined this question in depth: Update through the end of 2014. We now have 25 years of data. Yearly portfolio values for 1 million yen invested at the end of 1989, in inflation-adjusted (using Japanese CPI) yen terms. No wi...
by Angst
Fri Jul 01, 2016 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein 12 — The Societal Risk Premium
Replies: 21
Views: 2010

Re: Classic Bernstein 12 — The Societal Risk Premium

over the past ninety years, the earnings yield (inverse of P/E ratio and a proxy for real expected return) of the U.S. stock market has generally trended downward — reflecting the higher stock prices of a more stable, secure society. In short, the societal risk premium in the U.S. has decreased sin...
by Angst
Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Bernstein and the Buffet Premium
Replies: 18
Views: 1543

Re: Dr. Bernstein and the Buffet Premium

For all I know, as Buffet continues to age, premium might be evolving into discount, and once he has passed, a prospect of earnings reinvestment transitioning into dividends payments or share buybacks might cause BRK to rise. Who knows? I don't imagine it plummeting.
by Angst
Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 203
Views: 24512

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

Doesn't it seem like yesterday, everyone was anticipating rampant inflation due to post-crash Fed/Treasury policies? Things sure have changed... And surely they will again! Anyhow, thank you #Cruncher for your post above explicating the "Breakeven inflation rate" and your nicely organized ...
by Angst
Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Developed Mkts/Emerging Mkts Relative Drops
Replies: 6
Views: 736

Re: Developed Mkts/Emerging Mkts Relative Drops

From our (US) perspective, another contributory factor is probably exchange rates. The British £ has dropped a lot relative to the US $. I'm unaware of what other currencies have been doing during the Brexit.
by Angst
Mon Jun 27, 2016 4:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Return expectations for the next 10 years
Replies: 91
Views: 6032

Re: Return expectations for the next 10 years

3) Taxation higher across developed markets This is a fairly open-ended observation. "Federal" taxes? State? Property, sales, fees... Corporate vs Individual? There are lots of taxes that are at state, county and even more "local" levels, but that still doesn't preclude generali...
by Angst
Sun Jun 26, 2016 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Plunge and Panic-Do You Get It Now?
Replies: 108
Views: 12264

Re: Plunge and Panic-Do You Get It Now?

My apologies, but with only having read the op's subject heading, I'm already transported back to maybe... 1968? when I arrived by bus, early in June at camp Miniwanca and was promptly rounded up with my cohort of 11 and 12 year-olds and instructed to jump into Crystal Lake and swim. And as I prepar...
by Angst
Sun Jun 26, 2016 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn from the post-Brexit bloodbath?
Replies: 145
Views: 11488

Re: What did you learn from the post-Brexit bloodbath?

I didn't "learn" anything as much as I was simply reminded of what I learned long ago: Don't take polls too seriously. People seem to always think that "today", the techniques of polling have reached some state of the art such that they are generally very likely to be correct, bu...
by Angst
Sun Jun 26, 2016 6:56 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: BH [Bogleheads.org forum] is back!
Replies: 51
Views: 5025

Re: BH is back!

I was off work all night and figured I'd be browsing quite a bit... not! How long have we been down?
by Angst
Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New AQR/Asness Paper on Factor Timing
Replies: 9
Views: 885

Re: New AQR/Asness Paper on Factor Timing

Asness seems to have presented some very specific, pointed criticisms of Arnott, et al. I'm not really qualified to comment much but I'd love to hear from someone who is; as Arnott might say, a "referee". But most of the posts above seem to skirt the content of both of their complaints. Is...
by Angst
Wed Jun 22, 2016 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New AQR/Asness Paper on Factor Timing
Replies: 9
Views: 885

Re: New AQR/Asness Paper on Factor Timing

Thank you matjen for the link. I do enjoy Asness' writing style and look forward to reading this latest "Philippic" on Rob Arnott sometime tomorrow. And in my book, anything that can be favorably compared to the likes of Robert T deserves my attention.
by Angst
Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will there ever be a better time to sell off my international stake?
Replies: 35
Views: 3202

Re: Will there ever be a better time to sell off my international stake?

lgs88 wrote: :shock:

So you'd rather lose money on your investment than pay tax on your gains?!

+1

I guess if the Brexit passes on Thursday, that might present a nice opportunity for you to lock in some losses, if that's what you really want, but I don't understand your thinking.
by Angst
Wed Jun 22, 2016 11:56 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Happy Birthday, Mel! Boglehead #2.
Replies: 41
Views: 2849

Re: Happy Birthday, Mel! Boglehead #2.

Indeed, Happy Birthday, mid-cap Mel!!
There's nothing middling about all you have done for the forum,
Thank you! :happy
by Angst
Wed Jun 22, 2016 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction: 6/22, 0.8% yield?
Replies: 18
Views: 2361

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction: 6/22, 0.8% yield?

It looks like it might creep up as far as 0.92%
We should know soon.
by Angst
Tue Jun 21, 2016 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 203
Views: 24512

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

Bogleheads, Looking back at these many responses this was a very successful thread. Threads like this one make this forum the best financial website on the internet. Best. abuss, one thing I think that's even more reliable than the somewhat paltry returns provided through TIPS funds these days is t...
by Angst
Tue Jun 21, 2016 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Times Op-Ed: Pension Holders Need a New Retirement Plan, Not Stock Tips
Replies: 65
Views: 4695

Re: NY Times Op-Ed: Pension Holders Need a New Retirement Plan, Not Stock Tips

Full disclosure here: [snip...] Thank you dodecahedron for the perspective you provided regarding Alicia Munnell's own retirement planning mistakes in your above post . Given your observations, I suppose her errors should surprise me little more than our somewhat knee-jerk criticism over her failur...
by Angst
Tue Jun 21, 2016 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Times Op-Ed: Pension Holders Need a New Retirement Plan, Not Stock Tips
Replies: 65
Views: 4695

Re: NY Times Op-Ed: Pension Holders Need a New Retirement Plan, Not Stock Tips

Full disclosure here: [snip...] Thank you dodecahedron for the perspective you provided regarding Alicia Munnell's own retirement planning mistakes in your above post . Given your observations, I suppose her errors should surprise me little more than our somewhat knee-jerk criticism over her failur...
by Angst
Thu Jun 16, 2016 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction: 6/22, 0.8% yield?
Replies: 18
Views: 2361

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction: 6/22, 0.8% yield?

I'm in too Grok. I have no crystal ball to assist me, so I'm just building the ladder with what the new issue market provides me over time. I can imagine that just 20 years out from now the EE bonds that I also purchased this year will in retrospect look like better investments, but who knows? I fee...
by Angst
Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to keep $10,000 liquid yet still earn some interest
Replies: 23
Views: 4542

Re: Best way to keep $10,000 liquid yet still earn some interest

Ibonds. Inflation and deflation protection. Tax deferral and easy to set up. The returns on ibonds haven't been great. You are also restricted from selling for 1 year, and penalized if you sell before 5 years, IIRC. I wouldn't know, because I sold mine when the return went to zero. If the OP can to...
by Angst
Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year Treasury low yield
Replies: 45
Views: 3914

Re: 10 Year Treasury low yield

As others have already pointed out, on the shorter end, CD's may be the best bet. For those willing to go out to 20-yrs, it's still hard to beat series EE US Savings Bonds. Their 20-yr rate hasn't budged from 3.53%. Treasury's 20-yr yield curve today shows 2.05% https://www.treasury.gov/resource-cen...
by Angst
Wed Jun 08, 2016 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Four Phases of Saving and Investing for Retirement by Michael Kitces
Replies: 6
Views: 1200

Re: The Four Phases of Saving and Investing for Retirement by Michael Kitces

NMJack wrote:My four phases:

Save
Save
Save
Quit working and spend only what you need to maintain your previous lifestyle

(Phase V, leave something behind for others)

Phase IV, that's the place to be...
(cue Zsa Zsa)
by Angst
Tue Jun 07, 2016 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Don't make this gigantic Social Security mistake"
Replies: 69
Views: 9027

Re: "Don't make this gigantic Social Security mistake"

My 81 year old mother lives off my deceased father's SS/pension of about $1000 per month. She didn't really work outside of the home other than odd part-time jobs in her 60's. Otherwise her only asset is the house. Her last remaining sister was still working part-time in a factory into her 70's to ...
by Angst
Sun Jun 05, 2016 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Joe Davis of Vanguard says bonds have never been more valuable
Replies: 12
Views: 3706

Re: Joe Davis of Vanguard says bonds have never been more valuable

Larry Swedroe talks about safe bonds being the best diversifiers to stocks. My best guess is that as you amp up the risk in your bonds that the correlation of those bonds with stocks would increase. I would further define amping up risk as increasing the average maturity of the bonds and/or decreas...
by Angst
Sat Jun 04, 2016 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Getting retirement on track
Replies: 14
Views: 1803

Re: Getting retirement on track

You mention nothing as to the relative amount of funds available to the 401k vs the Roth IRA, so there's really no way to answer your question. Neither do you say anything about any preference for factor tilts (small cap, value), so I assume you do not want to tilt at all. I've been researching and ...
by Angst
Sat Jun 04, 2016 8:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Don't make this gigantic Social Security mistake"
Replies: 69
Views: 9027

Re: "Don't make this gigantic Social Security mistake"

What I don't get is why someone who is still working full time with no health concerns would file for $700 or so at age 62. I've seen this happen and it boggles my mind. I mean at 61 you were getting by fine but now that you're 62 you absolutely must have this chump change now? I saw someone file a...
by Angst
Fri Jun 03, 2016 8:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Joe Davis of Vanguard says bonds have never been more valuable
Replies: 12
Views: 3706

Re: Joe Davis of Vanguard says bonds have never been more valuable

My experience has been that the Bogleheads Bond/Equity correlation police always default to the context of the full extent of the historical record, and as such, while the overall, long-term correlation happens to be low, it is not negative. Woe be to he who chooses to consider a time-frame smaller ...
by Angst
Fri Jun 03, 2016 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Joe Davis of Vanguard says bonds have never been more valuable
Replies: 12
Views: 3706

Re: Joe Davis of Vanguard says bonds have never been more valuable

What?! Bonds having a negative correlation with equity? That's heresy I say! Boglehead heresy!
by Angst
Fri Jun 03, 2016 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Noobie Bond Question [why not CDs or bonds held to maturity?]
Replies: 5
Views: 872

Re: Noobie Bond Question [why not CDs or bonds held to maturity?]

these will give a positive return (although small) independent of market swings and will eliminate the bond loss in my portfolio when the market is strong "Bonds" in general are priced in the marketplace, that is to say they are marketable and so once they've been issued the secondary mar...
by Angst
Wed Jun 01, 2016 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Be thankful you are not a pension fund, WSJ
Replies: 47
Views: 6711

Re: Be thankful you are not a pension fund, WSJ

A big problem is that since most workers don't have pensions they have become their own pension fund managers. [snip].... The traditional pension is dying and it just is not coming back. No Kidding !! Thank you BobK and nedsaid for pointing out and emphasizing the other side of this ugly coin. For ...
by Angst
Wed May 25, 2016 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As bad as I think it is? [403(b) plan choices]
Replies: 36
Views: 3080

Re: As bad as I think it is?

Ughh... pretty pathetic. I don't think anyone's posted a link yet to the Wiki page on "How to campaign for a better 401(k) plan". It ought to apply just as well to a 403b. Here it is: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/How_to_campaign_for_a_better_401%28k%29_plan Good luck. It's well worth pu...
by Angst
Wed May 25, 2016 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expected Social Security Benefit if I Have No Income for Five Years Before Claiming at 70
Replies: 96
Views: 5714

Re: Expected Social Security Benefit if I Have No Income for Five Years Before Claiming at 70

The online calculator says I'll collect $3458 if I retire next year at age 68 and delay until 70 (which is the plan). AnyPIA says I'll draw $3403. So I'll get $35/month less by not working for two years. So there is SOME difference between the online figure and the (hopefully) more accurate AnyPIA ...
by Angst
Wed May 25, 2016 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expected Social Security Benefit if I Have No Income for Five Years Before Claiming at 70
Replies: 96
Views: 5714

Re: Expected Social Security Benefit if I Have No Income for Five Years Before Claiming at 70

KlangFool and Angst, I too have had bad luck with the SS online retirement estimators and also with them by phone. Three times I called and got three different answers. Is there any chance I could talk you into writing a short how to on using anypia? I'll be glad to go through it and verify it and ...
by Angst
Wed May 25, 2016 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expected Social Security Benefit if I Have No Income for Five Years Before Claiming at 70
Replies: 96
Views: 5714

Re: Expected Social Security Benefit if I Have No Income for Five Years Before Claiming at 70

sscritic notes that when using the Retirement Estimator, a "quick and dirty" method for those who are at the point of decision is to enter zero for last year's earnings rather than entering your actual last year's earnings. It will (in most cases) slightly understate your benefit, but it ...
by Angst
Wed May 25, 2016 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expected Social Security Benefit if I Have No Income for Five Years Before Claiming at 70
Replies: 96
Views: 5714

Re: Expected Social Security Benefit if I Have No Income for Five Years Before Claiming at 70

If I do work that last year at 69 y/o I'll still have some more very low earnings years left among the top 35. I wonder, hypothetically, if I lop off one more of those low earnings years when I turn 71, would my PIA be bumped further, or does that door close completely at 70? Your PIA will continue...
by Angst
Wed May 25, 2016 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expected Social Security Benefit if I Have No Income for Five Years Before Claiming at 70
Replies: 96
Views: 5714

Re: Expected Social Security Benefit if I Have No Income for Five Years Before Claiming at 70

If you have only 31 years (and some low earning), then an 18% difference makes sense. I took a lot of time off (I would say 7 years total of the last 24 I've been out of college). However, sometimes it was 6 months of a year or whatever so I had earnings for the calendar year. I calculated if I ret...
by Angst
Wed May 25, 2016 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expected Social Security Benefit if I Have No Income for Five Years Before Claiming at 70
Replies: 96
Views: 5714

Re: Expected Social Security Benefit if I Have No Income for Five Years Before Claiming at 70

Hi Mike and Artsdoctor, I understand and agree, one can take the output of the Retirement Estimator and using additional knowledge and information that is not presented at the Retirement Estimator webpage, calculate their future benefit based on what the Estimator says it would be if you worked up t...
by Angst
Wed May 25, 2016 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expected Social Security Benefit if I Have No Income for Five Years Before Claiming at 70
Replies: 96
Views: 5714

Re: Expected Social Security Benefit if I Have No Income for Five Years Before Claiming at 70

Maybe I'm not following this thread correctly but the retirement estimator reports the exact same results for me as anypia for the three milestones (62, FRA, 70) based no current projected income. If I was to hazard a guess I'd say the estimator uses anypia for its calculations too. You could caref...
by Angst
Tue May 24, 2016 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expected Social Security Benefit if I Have No Income for Five Years Before Claiming at 70
Replies: 96
Views: 5714

Re: Expected Social Security Benefit if I Have No Income for Five Years Before Claiming at 70

Thanks KlangFool for the follow up. I'm pleased to have been pushed to finally use the anypia software. It's annoying but I'm glad I've figured it out, and I also understand your points about how past earnings history for many people can overwhelm any impact the last few years of earnings might have...

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