Search found 2118 matches

by AlohaJoe
Fri Jul 21, 2017 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do politically stable times, or more volatile times, benefit the investor--or does it make a difference?
Replies: 16
Views: 745

Re: Do politically stable times, or more volatile times, benefit the investor--or does it make a difference?

How do we know that the world is stable or in the state of flux? Or, it is stable right before the state of flux or vice versa. We would not know anyhow until after many years later. Yeah, I think most people in the throws of wars, plagues, major financial depressions, etc. know what they're experi...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jul 21, 2017 3:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1003
Views: 555921

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Since many in this thread are interested in historical stock information, here's a new (July 2017) source. This paper presents new monthly capital gain, dividend yield, and total return indices for common equities quoted on British exchanges during 1869-1929. I construct indices for 25 domestic sect...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jul 21, 2017 1:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kicking the net worth habit
Replies: 26
Views: 2057

Re: Kicking the net worth habit

For a while now I've been a convert to Robert Merton's thinking that income is more important than net worth, so I look at that. As you point out, there are several ways to calculate that, with varying levels of complexity and disagreement about whether they are "right". So I split the dif...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jul 21, 2017 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please explain Capital Gains tax after retirement
Replies: 23
Views: 1285

Re: Please explain Capital Gains tax after retirement

The terms actually are MAGI (modified adjusted gross income) and AGI (adjusted gross income); AlohaJoe is often correct, but I don't see why the OP would have $145,000 in income. Your cost basis ($45,000) is not tax. Indeed I was not correct. I misread the OP's "assume 100% gains" part. A...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 20, 2017 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please explain Capital Gains tax after retirement
Replies: 23
Views: 1285

Re: Please explain Capital Gains tax after retirement

Irrespective of the snarky comments, I gather the answer is; "LTCGs are considered earned income and are included in determining overall tax bracket" No, they are not considered earned income. They are considered unearned income. Your marginal tax bracket isn't determined by earned income...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 20, 2017 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please explain Capital Gains tax after retirement
Replies: 23
Views: 1285

Re: Please explain Capital Gains tax after retirement

Capital gains work the same before and after retirement.

If you plan on having $145,000 in income you aren't in the 15% bracket, you're in the 25% bracket.

You should fill out a tax form. It is never too late to understand how taxes actually work.
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 20, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Investing well for Retirement can be frustrating
Replies: 43
Views: 2153

Re: Investing well for Retirement can be frustrating

Of want are you envious? If it is the car or the house, then maybe you should buy it? If not, I repeat, what do you envy? Maybe the OP is envious about being able to brag about something? I'm not sure. But: who says "it's not cool to brag about you portfolio?" Go ahead and do it, it you w...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Designed an aggressive 20 year portfolio. Thoughts?
Replies: 24
Views: 1825

Re: Designed an aggressive 20 year portfolio. Thoughts?

I don't understand the logic of using market-cap weighted fund for international but taking sector and active bets in the US. Why aren't you buying KXI, IPS, or ECON instead of Total International? Why not Vanguard International Explorer?

Why are you making a growth bet?
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jul 19, 2017 3:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A week in Iceland
Replies: 28
Views: 1499

Re: A week in Iceland

. Once you get off route 1 you may be on gravel roads. Long gravel roads. And these are the better roads. Make sure you have enough gas and food. Bring money. Lots of it. There is nothing on earth quite like Iceland- but expect to pay for it. I am currently in Iceland on a 3 week holiday. I'm actua...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 18, 2017 3:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What Major Companies are Not Included in Standard Vanguard Index Funds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1503

Re: What Major Companies are Not Included in Standard Vanguard Index Funds?

The Vanguard Company is not held in any Vanguard fund. Nor is Fidelity.
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Not REIT's?
Replies: 47
Views: 4207

Re: Why Not REIT's?

. On average , the REIT index ‘captured’ 69% of the equity premium, 36% of the size premium, and 60% of the value premium over this period, with a small 0.02% monthly/ 0.21% annual residual not explained by the FF three factor model. You'll find using the Carhart 4 factor model with 2 factors for b...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Not REIT's?
Replies: 47
Views: 4207

Re: Why Not REIT's?

alex_686 wrote:REITs don't walk or quakes like the rest of the market.


A Carhart 4-factor regression analysis shows that REITs have no statistically significant alpha. In other words, they walk and quack exactly like the market, assuming you buld a replicating portfolio of the appropriate factors.
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is now time to move into international stocks?
Replies: 47
Views: 4573

Re: Is now time to move into international stocks?

International (MSCI EAFE) returned over 13% in the first six months of this year. As the other poster mentioned, your market timing is off by half a year and the entire world now thinks international might be okay. At the very least, we seem to have seen a temporary cessation in the daily "why ...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jul 15, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market vs Limit order
Replies: 48
Views: 2858

Re: Market vs Limit order

You just place your order and it gets executed at the end of the business day, at the actual share value. This isn't true for anything that is international. Since obviously their markets don't close at 5pm Eastern Standard. For a homework assignment: So how does Vanguard determine the price of a m...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jul 15, 2017 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taxes Due When Converting International to US Stock Fund?
Replies: 13
Views: 859

Re: Taxes Due When Converting International to US Stock Fund?

Would this move be considered between two substantially equivalent funds so that tax would not be due? Or would they be considered different by the IRS and tax due? Even if they were substantially equivalent you would still owe taxes. As livesoft often suggests, you should probably spend some time ...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Periodic investing to reduce/eliminate need to rebalance?
Replies: 15
Views: 1141

Re: Periodic investing to reduce/eliminate need to rebalance?

It seems to me like it would keep my portfolio from skewing to the point where I would need to sell off funds (a taxable event). And since I'm only buying in every month, never selling, it seems like I would never need to rebalance at the end of the year. Your portfolio will still skew and you stil...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole
Replies: 74
Views: 5629

Re: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole

According to a 2010 report by the Kauffman Foundation, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were invented to avoid the "confiscatory tax policy" that individual investors in mutual funds must endure. I haven't read the Kauffman Foundation report but the statement above is blatantly incorrect. ETF...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 09, 2017 1:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Information, New Viewpoint on Investing?
Replies: 28
Views: 2394

Re: New Information, New Viewpoint on Investing?

raven15 wrote:
AlohaJoe wrote:Some beliefs that I used to have...
That credit risk isn't rewarded, so one should only invest in Treasuries.

What changed your mind on this one?


The research from AQR.
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jul 08, 2017 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Information, New Viewpoint on Investing?
Replies: 28
Views: 2394

Re: New Information, New Viewpoint on Investing?

Some beliefs that I used to have... That standard deviation of annual returns is a useful risk measurement. That credit risk isn't rewarded, so one should only invest in Treasuries. That risk parity strategies are snake oil. That mean-variance optimization and the efficient frontier is a good way to...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 06, 2017 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Stock Returns in a Low-Growth World?
Replies: 63
Views: 5102

Re: High Stock Returns in a Low-Growth World?

It makes more sense for investors to plan for modest equity returns in a low growth world, in my view — and if things turn out better than anticipated, what has been lost? What is lost would depend on what their plan actually is and how it has changed to account for lower returns. If you adopt a Sw...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 06, 2017 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How best to invest 10 years of expenses in Fixed Income
Replies: 27
Views: 2339

Re: How best to invest 10 years of expenses in Fixed Income

TheTimeLord wrote:A little worried about using bonds funds instead of individual bonds which would benefit from an ever shortening maturity in the face of a rising rate environment.


Why can't you get that with a bond fund?

(You can.)
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jul 05, 2017 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "What I Learned From My 'Faux-tirement'"
Replies: 33
Views: 6720

Re: "What I Learned From My 'Faux-tirement'"

Much thanks. If I worked in a company like Clef I am not sure I would EVER retire. Worst case would be just looking at the clock and counting down how many months until I get 3 months off. Its like a mini retirement over and over and over again. I've never lasted at a place long enough to reach lon...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jul 05, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment
Replies: 92
Views: 6988

Re: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment

First, I'd recommend checking out from the library a copy of David Swensen's, Unconventional Success, and turning to Chapter 2 page 66 and reading the section of real estate. [...] Admittedly extremely stale data... One challenge with most (all?) popular investing books is they don't tie back to fa...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jul 05, 2017 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo and Mean Reversion
Replies: 34
Views: 2564

Re: Monte Carlo and Mean Reversion

I was wondering if anyone had run into analyses using extended MCMC methods using some form of momentum or mean reversion modeling which takes this into effect using stock returns http://www.prospercuity.com/cover_up.htm is the only place that I've really seen it. There also a paper by the Trinity ...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "What I Learned From My 'Faux-tirement'"
Replies: 33
Views: 6720

Re: "What I Learned From My 'Faux-tirement'"

To be more specific is this time off in addition to one's vacation allotment, i.e. PTO for the year. Is it saved up, i.e. accumulated with each year of work at the company? Is it available to all employees or only high paid employees? Guess stuff like that. I don't work at Morningstar but I've work...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jul 05, 2017 4:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment
Replies: 92
Views: 6988

Re: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment

First, I'd recommend checking out from the library a copy of David Swensen's, Unconventional Success, and turning to Chapter 2 page 66 and reading the section of real estate. [...] Admittedly extremely stale data... One challenge with most (all?) popular investing books is they don't tie back to fa...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 04, 2017 11:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "What I Learned From My 'Faux-tirement'"
Replies: 33
Views: 6720

Re: "What I Learned From My 'Faux-tirement'"

p.s. I am more interested in learning more about Morningstar employment benefits of taking 6 weeks off. What do you mean here? Are you asking "how does the policy work"? Or "what are the benefits of the policy?" Or...something else? What do you want to learn more about specifica...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 04, 2017 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using a 5y moving average to smooth withdrawals in VPW?
Replies: 21
Views: 1558

Re: Using a 5y moving average to smooth withdrawals in VPW?

it's very much a 'pay me now or pay me later' type of situation. This is not really an accurate summary. When you smooth income you are generating a kind of risk. The risk can be removed by either reducing withdrawals or by the market performing better. It is entirely possible that you smooth incom...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 04, 2017 3:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REITs in Total International Stock Index fund?
Replies: 2
Views: 515

Re: REITs in Total International Stock Index fund?

I read online that the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund holds 3% in REITs at market weight. I was just wondering if their Total International Index fund holds any international REITs. And if so how much? Does anyone know? Thanks for any replies. Morningstar has this kind of detailed informati...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 03, 2017 9:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Unique adventure trip ideas - sailing?
Replies: 15
Views: 1178

Re: Unique adventure trip ideas - sailing?

It would probably have to be a short trip 3-7 days. I think a sailing trip where I was part of the crew would be fun but I'm guessing this would be tough to find for such a short trip? I don't think it would be hard at all. It took me just a few seconds of googling to find dozens of opportunities l...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 03, 2017 5:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any actual Expats in retirement?
Replies: 13
Views: 2146

Re: Any actual Expats in retirement?

And then if you are covered by the National Health Care of your country of residence, you are exempt for that requirement. I wonder what kind of documentation you'd need. Actually, maybe I've misunderstood how it works? I found this on the Medicare website: You must live in the U.S. to file for Par...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 03, 2017 2:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any actual Expats in retirement?
Replies: 13
Views: 2146

Re: Any actual Expats in retirement?

You can't use Medicare overseas but have to pay monthly for supplementary coverage (is it Medicare B) or you face a penalty if you return and try to enroll. Any advice on that? I was going to give a smart alec answer but then thought it might be interesting to actually model it. Paying Medicare B (...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 02, 2017 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement withdrawal rates
Replies: 36
Views: 2507

Re: Retirement withdrawal rates

I also believe it was described as safe at a time when bonds produced >= 4%. This is not true. North Texas Cajun wrote : "Please help me understand why you believe that. In William Bengen's 1994 Journal of Financial Planning piece." Mr. Google say 10 year treasuries were definitely paying...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I nuts? Buy dividend paying stocks to pay down LOC?
Replies: 13
Views: 1298

Re: Am I nuts? Buy dividend paying stocks to pay down LOC?

$8,000 with an interest rate of 3.85% [...] What about putting together a portfolio of high paying dividend stocks and etfs The overall idea -- of using leverage and keeping the spread between your debt's interest rate and your investments' returns -- isn't crazy but it introduces some amount of ri...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard... Possible to auto invest in ETF's?
Replies: 25
Views: 1835

Re: Vanguard... Possible to auto invest in ETF's?

While I'm aware of that option I don't recommend it because market on open/close orders don't necessarily have much to do with the NAV. The famed ETF consultants paper makes this point repeatedly. I consider it too dangerous to use with any regularity. Yep that's a good point. I assume the robo-adv...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 02, 2017 9:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any actual Expats in retirement?
Replies: 13
Views: 2146

Re: Any actual Expats in retirement?

It made me wonder "does anyone actually do this"? I would love to hear from anyone on this site if they ever lived abroad after retirement for any length of time and how they felt about the experience? It's a good experience for some and a terrible experience for others. I like it and don...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 02, 2017 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement withdrawal rates
Replies: 36
Views: 2507

Re: Retirement withdrawal rates

Dottie57 wrote:I also believe it was described as safe at a time when bonds produced >= 4%.


This is not true.
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 02, 2017 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique my portfolio rebalance model (Excel)
Replies: 5
Views: 441

Re: Critique my portfolio rebalance model (Excel)

Keepcalm wrote:Could a mod just delete this post then. No since in having it if no ones going to open it (which I understand).


That's not necessary. Some people will open up Excel files here. Many very well known Boglehead resources are provided as XLS.
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 02, 2017 4:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard... Possible to auto invest in ETF's?
Replies: 25
Views: 1835

Re: Vanguard... Possible to auto invest in ETF's?

Is there an easier way? This is not possible. ETFs are bought and sold on the secondary market at market prices rather than by issuance/redemption directly with the mutual fund company. Therefore you need to decide how much you are willing to pay at a particular time during a trading day. While it ...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jul 01, 2017 3:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I move abroad to minimize health care costs?
Replies: 80
Views: 6080

Re: Should I move abroad to minimize health care costs?

Don't let the naysayers keep you down. I sort of agree but sort of disagree. I think "I want to move SOMEWHERE in the world because I'm afraid that in 30 or 40 years I might need long-term care and that's really expensive in the US" is a completely crazy, totally horrible, absolutely wron...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jul 01, 2017 1:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Engagement Ring Insurance
Replies: 46
Views: 3058

Re: Engagement Ring Insurance

2. If we made a claim on the ring, it would not affect our auto/renter's policy premiums since it's a separate policy with a different company.. I don't think this is true. Most (all?) insurance companies report claims to agencies like CLUE, iiX, and A-Plus Property Reports. Then insurance companie...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jun 30, 2017 4:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: (Almost) every day I make a financial mistake more costly than the day before
Replies: 57
Views: 7111

Re: (Almost) every day I make a financial mistake more costly than the day before

I am amazed at the number of replies in this thread advocating for use of a 1% AUM money manager / salesman. There was exactly one reply in the entire thread advocating for the use of a 1% AUM manager and that came the very large caveat of If you're unable to control your emotions, 1% for a fiducia...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jun 30, 2017 3:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!
Replies: 55
Views: 6577

Re: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!

dcarste wrote:What do you think?


I think this was a really long way to rehash the same old arguments about US versus international investing.

I don't think anyone has forgotten we're investing in real companies.
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: (Almost) every day I make a financial mistake more costly than the day before
Replies: 57
Views: 7111

Re: (Almost) every day I make a financial mistake more costly than the day before

Here's the funny part, my plan was WORKING but [...] the market stopped it's downward trajectory. :D . Actually for awhile I got fed up and started dca'ing and stopped because I saw the market peak and then start to fall over about a year... This claim has no basis in reality. https://monosnap.com/...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 59
Views: 4338

Re: Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

So it might be helpful for you to look back at previous periods of rate increases to see how it fared. To elaborate on saltycaper's point, rates went from 6.5% to 9.75% in December 1988 (a bigger increase than anything you probably had in mind). And Vanguard Total Bond returned 13.17% over the 12-m...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 59
Views: 4338

Re: Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

given that we've never really seen what a bond index fund would do in a rising rate environment We've seen 3 rate hikes in 6 months (well, nearly 6 months and 16 days at this point). So...we've seen what bond index funds do in a rising rate environment and don't need to rely on speculation and simp...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 21
Views: 1426

Re: Variable Withdrawal Rates

A very good question posed here that I know nothing about - What is an international health policy , what does it cover, how much does it costs for a couple and where can you learn more about it? Search "international health insurance" or "expat health insurance" on Google. Clic...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 21
Views: 1426

Re: Variable Withdrawal Rates

But are they affordable with comparable quality of coverage for a couple making only $30k annually? Insurance for the couple in the OP would cost $1,100 a year (for a $5,000 annual deductible) with IM Global. That covers 100% of most things up to $1 million lifetime. The cheapest somewhat similar p...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jun 29, 2017 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 21
Views: 1426

Re: Variable Withdrawal Rates

Given all the angst about our health care system, I find it hard to believe that someone making $30K per year could buy a good international policy that will provide comparable coverage to a US employer or ACA policy. International policies aren't for people living in the US full-time; that's why t...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jun 29, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 21
Views: 1426

Re: Variable Withdrawal Rates

My biggest concern would be health care. How good are these international policies They are as good or better than any health care policy you would have in the US. and what happens to you if there is a major emergency? The same thing that happens if there is a major emergency on your US health care...

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