Search found 296 matches

by Allan Roth
Fri Sep 23, 2016 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The coming municipal bond crisis
Replies: 51
Views: 7119

Re: The coming municipal bond crisis

I strongly recommend a portfolio have no more than 20% of fixed income in munis, which is twice the market cap rate. The reason is two-fold. First - the reward is modest to none - if you compare after-tax rates of CDs bought in the secondary market to munis of the same duration, even at the highest ...
by Allan Roth
Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS
Replies: 142
Views: 12159

Re: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS

Consider that the tax deductible mortgage interest is high when the mortgage is fresh but 25 years later, you are paying mostly on principal and much less deductible interest, when your RMDs are higher too, so both of those would drive your taxes higher, later in retirement. The tops of tax bracket...
by Allan Roth
Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS
Replies: 142
Views: 12159

Re: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS

A mortgage is the inverse of a bond. It's dumb to borrow money at 3.5% only to lend it out at 1.88% (Total Bond). It's dumber if you are paying someone 2% to earn that 1.88%. Who has done better over the last 15 years a) "Dumb" person who bought 6.5% 30 year treasuries and paid 8% on a mo...
by Allan Roth
Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS
Replies: 142
Views: 12159

Re: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS

A mortgage is the inverse of a bond. It's dumb to borrow money at 3.5% only to lend it out at 1.88% (Total Bond). It's dumber if you are paying someone 2% to earn that 1.88%. Who has done better over the last 15 years a) "Dumb" person who bought 6.5% 30 year treasuries and paid 8% on a mo...
by Allan Roth
Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS
Replies: 142
Views: 12159

Re: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS

A mortgage is the inverse of a bond. It's dumb to borrow money at 3.5% only to lend it out at 1.88% (Total Bond). It's dumber if you are paying someone 2% to earn that 1.88%. Who has done better over the last 15 years a) "Dumb" person who bought 6.5% 30 year treasuries and paid 8% on a mo...
by Allan Roth
Thu Sep 01, 2016 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS
Replies: 142
Views: 12159

Re: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS

PBS is in a tough spot. Diet shows that tell us to have a diet of mostly veggies, fruits, and whole grains with a little lean protein or finance shows that say to spend less than you make and put the difference into a mix of three low cost index funds are not very sexy (i.e. no one will watch). We ...
by Allan Roth
Thu Sep 01, 2016 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS
Replies: 142
Views: 12159

Re: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS

He keeps saying that Vanguard's index funds are not as low-cost as they appear and have "hidden" costs of 1.4%. This seems to be a deliberate deception based on the fact that all mutual funds do have transaction costs that do not appear in the expense ratio, and that some estimates are th...
by Allan Roth
Thu Sep 01, 2016 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS
Replies: 142
Views: 12159

Re: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS

He keeps saying that Vanguard's index funds are not as low-cost as they appear and have "hidden" costs of 1.4%. This seems to be a deliberate deception based on the fact that all mutual funds do have transaction costs that do not appear in the expense ratio, and that some estimates are th...
by Allan Roth
Thu Sep 01, 2016 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS
Replies: 142
Views: 12159

Re: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS

He keeps saying that Vanguard's index funds are not as low-cost as they appear and have "hidden" costs of 1.4%. This seems to be a deliberate deception based on the fact that all mutual funds do have transaction costs that do not appear in the expense ratio, and that some estimates are th...
by Allan Roth
Thu Sep 01, 2016 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS
Replies: 142
Views: 12159

Re: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS

I He keeps saying that Vanguard's index funds are not as low-cost as they appear and have "hidden" costs of 1.4%. This seems to be a deliberate deception based on the fact that all mutual funds do have transaction costs that do not appear in the expense ratio, and that some estimates are ...
by Allan Roth
Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS
Replies: 142
Views: 12159

Re: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS

Even his comments on the mortgage weren't necessarily completely off-base. The most cursory of searches here at bogleheads would reveal disagreements as to whether it is better to pay off a mortgage or not. So if he falls on the side of not paying it off, he has plenty of boglehead company. A mortg...
by Allan Roth
Wed Aug 31, 2016 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS
Replies: 142
Views: 12159

Re: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS

I have many disagreements with Ric Edelman's approach but none larger than the belief that high cost indexing is an oxymoron. I'd recommend lower cost active before high cost indexing. But I want it all - low-cost, tax-efficient, broadly diversified indexing. THANK YOU JACK BOGLE FOR GIVING US THE I...
by Allan Roth
Tue May 10, 2016 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Save $52,000 on Financial Advice" Forbes
Replies: 103
Views: 12954

Re: Allan Roth

Taylor Larimore wrote:
I personally know and admire Boglehead, Allan Roth. Your quotes do not surprise me.

Best wishes.
Taylor


Taylor - you are very kind. Thank you! Allan
by Allan Roth
Thu Apr 28, 2016 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond vs Municipal Bond Funds
Replies: 66
Views: 7956

Re: Bond-Equivalent Calculators?

Allan: Thanks to you, ogd and grabner, I am going to stop recommending bond-equivalent calculators. Once again, I continue to learn more from the Bogleheads Forum than I contribute. Thank you. Best wishes. Taylor Taylor - I think good bond calculators like the one you posted are fine and I'd recomm...
by Allan Roth
Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond vs Municipal Bond Funds
Replies: 66
Views: 7956

Re: Morningstar Calculator

oofoo2000: You may find this helpful: Morningstar Tax-Equivalent Yield Calculator Best wishes. Taylor Hi Taylor, In my posts above I'm arguing that one shouldn't use tax-equivalent yield calculators any more than they should choose the higher-yielding fund of two taxable funds, or two tax-exempt. S...
by Allan Roth
Tue Apr 26, 2016 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Save $52,000 on Financial Advice" Forbes
Replies: 103
Views: 12954

Re: "Save $52,000 on Financial Advice" Forbes

Fascinating. Can you share some examples of low hanging fruit? Examples - mortgage, cash earning less than 1.05%, CDs over bond funds, owning munis while owning stocks in tax-deferred accounts, Using 529s for off label use (risk-less tax-deductions), using state pension exemptions, multiple Roth co...
by Allan Roth
Mon Apr 25, 2016 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Save $52,000 on Financial Advice" Forbes
Replies: 103
Views: 12954

Re: "Save $52,000 on Financial Advice" Forbes

Interesting article, but sad that people are paying $450 per hour for the same advice that they can get here for free. That said, at least the guy is giving them something of great value in return. The math checks out! :sharebeer You may be surprised to know that my clients include fund managers, f...
by Allan Roth
Fri Mar 11, 2016 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where I Disagree with Vanguard - Alan Roth
Replies: 23
Views: 6239

Re: Where I Disagree with Vanguard - Alan Roth

I I am curious as to why the idea of individual bonds to avoid losing money in the fund is a silly idea. Certainly, you have the same interest rate risk, but you do not lose actual dollar value. It does not currently apply to me, as I am using my mortgage as a reverse-bond as the article states. Wh...
by Allan Roth
Fri Mar 11, 2016 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where I Disagree with Vanguard - Alan Roth
Replies: 23
Views: 6239

Re: Where I Disagree with Vanguard - Alan Roth

Alan Roth invented the Roth IRA back in 1939, so I would at least consider what he has to say. I assume you are joking. The Roth IRA was named after Senator William Roth from Delaware. From Wikipedia: "William Victor "Bill" Roth, Jr. (July 22, 1921 – December 13, 2003) was an America...
by Allan Roth
Fri Mar 11, 2016 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where I Disagree with Vanguard - Alan Roth
Replies: 23
Views: 6239

Re: Where I Disagree with Vanguard - Alan Roth

That's fine if you're Alan Roth I guess, but let's say someone like me questions everything, for example: Which is better, Roth 401k vs Traditional? Well, I just read that thread and I'm still no closer to the answer, except that most likely there isn't one true answer. So it's either have faith in...
by Allan Roth
Sun Jan 17, 2016 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allan Roth and Larry Swedroe articles
Replies: 2
Views: 958

Re: Allan Roth and Larry Swedroe articles

I'm still writing for AARP, ETF.com, and the WSJ, thought the WSJ is behind a paywall. AARP changed the platform and has yet to build a new author page. Until then, here are a few recent pieces: http://www.aarp.org/money/investing/info-2015/finance-and-savings-planning-tips.html http://www.aarp.org/...
by Allan Roth
Fri Nov 27, 2015 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why You Shouldn't Substitute Stocks for Bonds"
Replies: 16
Views: 2418

Re: "Why You Shouldn't Substitute Stocks for Bonds"

"Reaching for yield" is subject to interpretation. Some advisors consider going out beyond 2 1/2 years duration to be reaching for yield. Actually, my advisor DFA portfolios never exceeded one or two years duration/maturity and, as I recall, the basic IFA portfolio overall duration (using...
by Allan Roth
Fri Nov 27, 2015 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why You Shouldn't Substitute Stocks for Bonds"
Replies: 16
Views: 2418

Re: "Why You Shouldn't Substitute Stocks for Bonds"


But I do find the above statement taking the first 15 years of a century as a meaningful measure of time a tad suspect.


We are closing in on 16 years. It is very meaningful but not predictive.
by Allan Roth
Fri Nov 27, 2015 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why You Shouldn't Substitute Stocks for Bonds"
Replies: 16
Views: 2418

Re: "Why You Shouldn't Substitute Stocks for Bonds"

[quote="TheTimeLord"][quote]"So far this century, bonds have far outpaced stocks." But I do find the above statement taking the first 15 years of a century as a meaningful measure of time a tad suspect. /quote] We are closing in on 16 years. It is very meaningful but not predicti...
by Allan Roth
Sat Nov 14, 2015 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Play the Odds When Investing"
Replies: 23
Views: 4010

Re: "Play the Odds When Investing"

Thanks for the article Taylor. One criticism I have of the article is that it clearly underplays (if that is the right phrase) the significant advantages an index fund has over actively managed funds over time. These were covered very nicely by Mr. Bogle (I cannot say my thoughts are original in th...
by Allan Roth
Fri Nov 06, 2015 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding performance data in A. Roth article
Replies: 5
Views: 664

Re: Understanding performance data in A. Roth article

Backtesting: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&allocation2_2=100&lastMonth=6&symbol1=VTSMX&endYear=2015&symbol3=VFITX&frequency=4&symbol2=VBMFX&inflationAdjusted=true&annualAdjustment=0&showYield=false&startYear=2000&rebalance...
by Allan Roth
Fri Nov 06, 2015 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding performance data in A. Roth article
Replies: 5
Views: 664

Re: Understanding performance data in A. Roth article

Without trying myself, I would not use a Yahoo chart, but I would use a Morningstar "growth of" chart. There is a wiki article on that: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/How_to_use_Morningstar_growth_charts I had responded to Evelyn Troy when she emailed me. I am not using a Yahoo chart - I...
by Allan Roth
Fri Aug 21, 2015 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks for the Long Run? Really?
Replies: 41
Views: 7979

Re: "Stocks for the Long Run? Really?

I hate it when articles you read have chosen their dates to prove a point. "From October 17, 1991 through May 24, 2015, we see the following in the market..." The article reads "While picking the beginning of the century to track performance may not appear arbitrary, it is. If I had ...
by Allan Roth
Fri Aug 21, 2015 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks for the Long Run? Really?
Replies: 41
Views: 7979

Re: "Stocks for the Long Run? Really?

Snark aside, Siegel seems to be using 30+ years as his "long run" and he's the one who wrote a book with that title. Note that 1985-2000 was a lot better for stocks that 2000-2015. So averaging the two does appear to support Siegel's assertion. Much of Siegel's data was flawed per Jason Z...
by Allan Roth
Fri Aug 21, 2015 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks for the Long Run? Really?
Replies: 41
Views: 7979

Re: "Stocks for the Long Run? Really?

It's not even mathematically possible for TBM to give a total return of 121% over the next 15 years! That equates to an annualized return of 5.45% (which I suspect was pretty close to the yield in 2000). Today the yield is 2.13%--o the only place the other 3.3% of yield could come from is interest ...
by Allan Roth
Fri Aug 07, 2015 9:29 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Congrats to Laura Dogu
Replies: 67
Views: 9060

Re: Congrats to Laura Dogu

Wow - that is quite an honor and very well deserved! Cograts Ambassador!
by Allan Roth
Mon Aug 03, 2015 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth Says Not to Load Up on Muni Bonds
Replies: 101
Views: 9934

Re: Allan Roth Says to Avoid Muni Bonds

But I AM earning 5-6% interest every year on these munis. If you bet against that, you'd be entering into a suckers bet, and that's beneath my dignity. Best regards and respect. Why would these things be so difficult to sell. Possibly because people are incredulous, dunno. If you understood what a ...
by Allan Roth
Mon Aug 03, 2015 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth Says Not to Load Up on Muni Bonds
Replies: 101
Views: 9934

Re: Allan Roth Says to Avoid Muni Bonds

I guess the article is OK after all, but maybe the title should have been "avoid INDIVIDUAL muni bonds". Hmmm. I own a bunch of individual munis from a long time ago, and they are paying between 5 and 6 percent in my pocket, tax free, every year, verified (I do my own taxes.) Try THAT wit...
by Allan Roth
Mon Aug 03, 2015 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth Says Not to Load Up on Muni Bonds
Replies: 101
Views: 9934

Re: Allan Roth Says to Avoid Muni Bonds

Leesbro63 wrote:I stand somewhat corrected on my original post. I still think it appropriate to be here and will leave it, but perhaps I was too negative on my initial interpretation of the message. Sorry about that Allan!


No problem at all. I probably should have been more tactful in clarifying. Thanks.
by Allan Roth
Mon Aug 03, 2015 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth Says Not to Load Up on Muni Bonds
Replies: 101
Views: 9934

Re: Allan Roth Says to Avoid Muni Bonds

And that the upside, on an after-tax basis, should be considered. No point in paying less taxes if it means lower after-tax risk-adjusted returns. I couldn't agree more - some people seem to have the goal of paying less in taxes and I have an easy solution - quit your job, give all of your money aw...
by Allan Roth
Mon Aug 03, 2015 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth Says Not to Load Up on Muni Bonds
Replies: 101
Views: 9934

Re: Allan Roth Says to Avoid Muni Bonds

I think you should re-read the article as I never said "avoid muni bonds." In fact I stated: 1) I own muni bonds (via a Vanguard fund) 2) It may be okay to weight up to twice the market cap on munis. All I'm pointing out is that munis are not risk-free and many investors aren't aware of so...
by Allan Roth
Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SIGN PETITION for Jack Bogle's Presidential Medal of Freedon
Replies: 55
Views: 6525

Re: "Money is freedom."

Thanks for your effort, Allan. Your column certainly resulted in a surge of petition signers. Sadly, it doesn't look like we're going to reach 100,000 unless we get a tsunami of sigs in the next few days. I'm saddened to see that so few of the 43,000+ members of this forum have signed the petition....
by Allan Roth
Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SIGN PETITION for Jack Bogle's Presidential Medal of Freedon
Replies: 55
Views: 6525

Re: "Money is freedom."

Maybe it depends on one's perspective. In 1961, Harlan Ellison wrote a novel called Rockabilly , later retitled Spider Kiss . At a turning point, the protagonist realizes he has enough money to walk away from a soul-destroying situation: Thanks - I think I need to read that book! Sound's like the s...
by Allan Roth
Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SIGN PETITION for Jack Bogle's Presidential Medal of Freedon
Replies: 55
Views: 6525

Re: WHY YOU OWE YOUR FREEDOM TO JACK BOGLE

Or, more than likely, someone else would have come up with it. Happens all the time. Good luck. I now see where you are coming from - saw a post a bit ago saying you owe nothing to BH and that you have bested the S&P 500 index. By using the wrong benchmark, it is easy to convince yourself you a...
by Allan Roth
Tue Mar 03, 2015 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SIGN PETITION for Jack Bogle's Presidential Medal of Freedon
Replies: 55
Views: 6525

Re: WHY YOU OWE YOUR FREEDOM TO JACK BOGLE

admire Bogle, but my freedom comes from hard work, etc. Nothing wrong with giving him an award, and i wish him the best, and along with those that believe that he is deserving. You certainly need hard work and the discipline to defer that immediate gratification to live below your means. But perhap...
by Allan Roth
Tue Mar 03, 2015 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SIGN PETITION for Jack Bogle's Presidential Medal of Freedon
Replies: 55
Views: 6525

Re: WHY YOU OWE YOUR FREEDOM TO JACK BOGLE

I agree that Mr. Bogle's contributions to the investment world should be recognized. However, I find the article a little insulting as having more money is not how I would define freedom. Do I owe him my Financial "freedom"? Absolutely. Saying I owe him my freedom and the connotation that...
by Allan Roth
Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to Fix a Client Portfolio"
Replies: 31
Views: 2961

Re: "How to Fix a Client Portfolio"

Thank you, Taylor. I have a question: under the "Where to Put the Assets" graphic, there's a note saying "muni bonds are overused." Why does he say that? Three reasons: 1) taxable fixed income is best held in the tax-deferred accounts so don't own munis if you have equities in y...
by Allan Roth
Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with 5M?
Replies: 93
Views: 17674

Re: What to do with 5M?

youngpadawan was a perfect client - really learned (from great Bogleheads advice) and asked great questions along the way. Since the mortgage is the inverse of a bond, paying that off was the single largest source of "low hanging fruit" and, based on our initial conversation, that was done...
by Allan Roth
Mon Jan 05, 2015 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Words of Wisdom from Jonathan Clements
Replies: 17
Views: 3085

Re: Words of Wisdom from Jonathan Clements

As a retiree, I've learned that knowing fixed costs, even to the point of unintentionally memorizing them, and being prepared to cut spending as needed go hand in hand and are two of the smartest financial moves a retiree can make, especially an early retiree. Nisiprius makes an important point tho...
by Allan Roth
Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Words of Wisdom from Jonathan Clements
Replies: 17
Views: 3085

Re: Words of Wisdom from Jonathan Clements

The Minneapolis Star-Tribune publishes a portion of the Wall Street Journal Sunday Edition. Clements column usually appears there. Yesterday his column had 31 tips from his 2015 book. The article was much more extensive than the AARP version. I agree - I think AARP appropriately wouldn't want me to...
by Allan Roth
Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Words of Wisdom from Jonathan Clements
Replies: 17
Views: 3085

Re: Words of Wisdom from Jonathan Clements

(Big problem though is that health-related spending--particularly health-related spending not covered by insurance--isn't very "discretionary." That relates to another point, "know your fixed costs." An unfavorable health event can have a big effect on those fixed costs...) Admi...
by Allan Roth
Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: fleeced by an adviser, is there a recourse?
Replies: 104
Views: 11278

Re: fleeced by an adviser, is there a recourse?

so just some thoughts. Right now I use an advisor. I like him. He sends me a biannual reporting of fees. generally my fees are 1.2%. I think you need to reframe the way you think about it. If you think your fees are 1.2% annually, they are probably far more as the advisor likely has you in funds. L...
by Allan Roth
Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: fleeced by an adviser, is there a recourse?
Replies: 104
Views: 11278

Re: fleeced by an adviser, is there a recourse?

I'm not surprised that this type of salesmanship is allowed under the "suitability" standard. But I'm pretty shocked to hear that a person using such tactics could be considered a fiduciary. That's disturbing. I didn't pick the title of this piece but it describes how the "fiduciary ...
by Allan Roth
Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: fleeced by an adviser, is there a recourse?
Replies: 104
Views: 11278

Re: fleeced by an adviser, is there a recourse?

As an advisor, I can tell you the odds are stacked against the consumer. Everything is disclosed but it's disclosed in such a way that the "so what" is buried deep in a thick document and in such a technical way that the consumer has virtually no chance of understanding. Advisors attend tr...

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